Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
Kemi Badenoch- because she can't not stand Michael Gove- because it would be a suitably satirical end to the show if nobody else wants the gig
Street should have resigned over HS2 and run as the 'I get things done' indepedent guy.
Huge mistake sticking with the soiled brand.
More to the point Sunak made a terrible mistake by giving up on HS2. Not only was it economically illiterate it was political suicide pretty much everywhere north of London. He's made an astonishing number of mistakes for a clever guy but that one, to me, is, well, second to Rwanda.
Nothing will top his decision not only to scrap northern HS2 but to save up the announcement until the conference in Manchester.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
You also need to map which ones can hold their seat...
It is the second year of disastrous expectations management, with the number of losses last year and with the Mayoral ramping this year.
So what can be said for the Tories to give them a glimmer of hope. I think PNV / NEV - 7 / 9% lead is a not a gimme for Labour, it is no worse for the Tories than last year, such numbers are bridgeable.
The amount of granular detail you would have to ignore to run with that (e.g. the bits where Labour is struggling is not where Con is competitive anyway, by elections are trending far worse for Con etc etc) is not really the point.
With that amount of diversity of voting, the PNV / NEV is now a joke, a relic from a bygone era of 2 or 3 party politics. This time it told us nothing and concealed a lot. Such as where Labour and Lib Dem’s done best related to parliamentary target seats.
Indeed.
And with such regionalised swing numbers, analysing anything with national UNS doesn't look too clever for this cycle either.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
TRUSS
Oh and Badenoch. Who is less mad but still too obsessed with culture wars.
Street should have resigned over HS2 and run as the 'I get things done' indepedent guy.
Huge mistake sticking with the soiled brand.
More to the point Sunak made a terrible mistake by giving up on HS2. Not only was it economically illiterate it was political suicide pretty much everywhere north of London. He's made an astonishing number of mistakes for a clever guy but that one, to me, is, well, second to Rwanda.
Nothing will top his decision not only to scrap northern HS2 but to save up the announcement until the conference in Manchester.
What a fool.
He hasn't a clue about politics.
I had almost forgotten about the Manchester twist. I am a bit soft hearted that way.
Street should have resigned over HS2 and run as the 'I get things done' indepedent guy.
Huge mistake sticking with the soiled brand.
More to the point Sunak made a terrible mistake by giving up on HS2. Not only was it economically illiterate it was political suicide pretty much everywhere north of London. He's made an astonishing number of mistakes for a clever guy but that one, to me, is, well, second to Rwanda.
Nothing will top his decision not only to scrap northern HS2 but to save up the announcement until the conference in Manchester.
What a fool.
He hasn't a clue about politics.
I thought he'd provide some sanity and stability after the idiotic populism of Johnson and the bat-shit craziness of Truss, but axing HS2 demonstrated that he was going to be just as bad in his own way and so it has proved.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
This is why they wont in the end move.
It is all piss and wind or whatever the expression de jour is.
Only Johnson makes sense as a 'what the fuck, nothing to lose here and he might just pull something off' candidate.
Breaking - Rishi Sunak facing new Tory unrest. A lot of dismay around tonight after Labour's clean sweep of mayoralties on Saturday. Some Tory MPs angry over spin on Friday that the party might win London and West Mids. Bumpy hours ahead
General view among Tory MPs is that Sunak won't face a challenge. But Andy Street's defeat in West Mids by just 1,508 has sapped morale. Even Ben Houchen's victory - featuring a big anti-Tory swing and the absence of a blue rosette - has hardly boosted morale
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard … the message is clear: winning from the centre ground is key.' (Sky News)
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
TRUSS
Oh and Badenoch. Who is less mad but still too obsessed with culture wars.
Kemi won't want to be assoicated with defeat. I doubt she'll even stand.
No, for a caretaker to mitigate disaster, is really has to be an elder statesman or grandee.
Amazing what bad expectations management for one predictable Labour victory (London) and one very narrow mayoralty loss (W mids) can do for the vibes around an election.
In both cases the results were better for the Tories than party polling would have suggested. Yet because they did some stupid game playing yesterday they now look terrible.
Meanwhile I think I’m right in thinking the mayoral election with the biggest swing to Labour was Teesside?
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
Kemi Badenoch- because she can't not stand Michael Gove- because it would be a suitably satirical end to the show if nobody else wants the gig
Had forgotten her TBH - Chisti was my absurd candidate. She is more absurd.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
This is why they wont in the end move.
It is all piss and wind or whatever the expression de jour is.
Only Johnson makes sense as a 'what the fuck, nothing to lose here and he might just pull something off' candidate.
I sort of disagree. I think Mordaunt could give them a bump in polls if she held an election quickly after becoming leader, before being found out.
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard’ (Sky News)
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
I could see, in a future where the Tories get their shit together, Street leading a Roosveltian Tory party. You'd need to stuff the loons in their box though.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h These results were as bad as they could be for the Tories. Forget the spin. The rebel’s decision to call off the Rishi plot was made before a single vote was cast. The reality is they didn’t have the numbers and they didn’t have a candidate.
I wonder if Street will take any of tonight’s shenanigans to court. Does anyone want the West Mids mayoralty that badly?
What's there to take to court ? What are the shenanigans ? It's a narrow loss but it is a loss. 1000 votes wouldn't be overturned if every area was recounted.
I’ve seen people take any old shite to court. Done it myself more than once
On polling, YouGovs London Assembly polling was also out by a significant factor overstating Lab by 5 and understating Con by 5 and overstating Reform and LDs by a couple points
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard’ (Sky News)
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
I could see, in a future where the Tories get their shit together, Street leading a Roosveltian Tory party. You'd need to stuff the loons in their box though.
Yep.
I rather liked Andy Street after that interview.
I fear the tories are going to head even further down the rabbit hole: look at the nonsense Braverman has just written in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
This is why they wont in the end move.
It is all piss and wind or whatever the expression de jour is.
Only Johnson makes sense as a 'what the fuck, nothing to lose here and he might just pull something off' candidate.
I sort of disagree. I think Mordaunt could give them a bump in polls if she held an election quickly after becoming leader, before being found out.
I don't think so. Nothing but absolute manic totally shake the kaleidoscope will work now. But yeh she is the only other one with even a wisp of a chance.
INSIDE WESTMINSTER: How 'coiled mamba' Boris could come back to save the Tories from total annihilation - even though Rishi 'hasn't picked up the phone' | Daily Mail Online
Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.
But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
Musselburgh has a train station!
But not at the High Street, which is what I'm thinking of. Not the old workhouse on the outskirts. Or Monktonhall ex-Colliery.
Musselburgh to Waverley (by car) = 7 miles Old Oak Common to Euston (by car) = 7 miles
Can you get from OOC to Euston by rail now Sunak has given in to the road and air lobby, er, scaled back the tracks to Euston?
Wouldn't you have to walk to Willesden Junction and pick up whatever Khan's calling the Overground this week?
It will be easier to change at Birmingham.
Which is the point, really. It will actually be slower, on this scheme, to get from Birmingham to London on HS2 than it would be on the WCML.
It can still take the non-stoppers on the Trent Valley Line from Stoke, Liverpool, Manchester and Holyhead - and there are a fair number of them - but it's not going to do as much as it should have done to resolve capacity.
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard … the message is clear: winning from the centre ground is key.' (Sky News)
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
I do feel for Street, especially given that Houchen won. One day the Tories or their successors will return to the moderate centre ground where elections are won but I suspect they'll have a few years in the wilderness, howling at the moon, first.
Another Conservative leadership contest at this stage of the electoral cycle might not address any of the party's underlying problems, but it would - and I beg Tory MPs not to forget this - be very funny.
Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.
But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
Musselburgh has a train station!
But not at the High Street, which is what I'm thinking of. Not the old workhouse on the outskirts. Or Monktonhall ex-Colliery.
Musselburgh to Waverley (by car) = 7 miles Old Oak Common to Euston (by car) = 7 miles
Can you get from OOC to Euston by rail now Sunak has given in to the road and air lobby, er, scaled back the tracks to Euston?
Wouldn't you have to walk to Willesden Junction and pick up whatever Khan's calling the Overground this week?
It will be easier to change at Birmingham.
Which is the point, really. It will actually be slower, on this scheme, to get from Birmingham to London on HS2 than it would be on the WCML.
It can still take the non-stoppers on the Trent Valley Line from Stoke, Liverpool, Manchester and Holyhead - and there are a fair number of them - but it's not going to do as much as it should have done to resolve capacity.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
TRUSS
Oh and Badenoch. Who is less mad but still too obsessed with culture wars.
Kemi won't want to be assoicated with defeat. I doubt she'll even stand.
No, for a caretaker to mitigate disaster, is really has to be an elder statesman or grandee.
Theresa May. IDS. Or even maybe Lord Cameron???
IDS was Tory leader from 2001 - 2003, when John Swinney was SNP leader. Just sayin’.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
TRUSS
Oh and Badenoch. Who is less mad but still too obsessed with culture wars.
Kemi won't want to be assoicated with defeat. I doubt she'll even stand.
No, for a caretaker to mitigate disaster, is really has to be an elder statesman or grandee.
Theresa May. IDS. Or even maybe Lord Cameron???
If Sunak falls this weekend then Kemi is the Kate Forbes of this leadership election.
Only Johnson makes sense as a 'what the fuck, nothing to lose here and he might just pull something off' candidate.
That's not true.
The evidence of this week is that Richi is electoral poison.
Anybody that is not Richi would be better.
No. THE PARTY is poison. Everything it represents. The values it promotes. Houchen knows it. He proclaimed he is not a Tory. He refused to even wear Tory insignia. Street knows it. He ran his entire campaign against his own party and gave a concession speech decrying it.
Today's toxic "Conservatism" is toxic. Changing the leader will do nothing.
Street was very good then. Sensible and impressive. Of course, the headbangers will ignore him.
His interview on the Beeb was as good. Wouldn't blame anyone but himself, talked his achievements up but also wished the best to the incoming candidate. I'm really sad nine-bob-ben won and not Street if we're going to have one surviving Tory mayor.
Another Conservative leadership contest at this stage of the electoral cycle might not address any of the party's underlying problems, but it would - and I beg Tory MPs not to forget this - be very funny.
It would, but the general public would nuke them in the GE.
Let me cut to the chase so no one wastes time overanalysing this: we must not change our leader. Changing leader now won’t work: the time to do so came and went. The hole to dig us out is the PM’s, and it’s time for him to start shovelling.
I’ve lost count of the number of election counts I’ve attended over the decades. But I can’t recall one quite so dramatic as the one in Fareham this week. We shed tears of sadness because long-standing councillors were convinced we had lost, followed by tears of relief upon realising we had scraped through.
In my small part of the world Conservatives held on because of strong local leadership, low council tax and well-managed local finances combined with first-class local services. It pains me to say it, but I must be honest: it was with no thanks to the national Conservative “brand”. Fareham Tories bucked the trend despite the national government.
From the south coast to the Midlands or London, wherever I knocked on doors and spoke to our voters, the message was too often: “We’re lifelong Conservatives but you’re not a Conservative Party anymore. We can’t vote for you. Show some backbone.” You don’t need the psephological expertise of Prof John Curtice to see that the national Conservatives are in deep trouble.
This week’s earthquake must be a wake-up call.
I feel like the "my local Tories are really good" might play well with her constituency but it's not the most diplomatic message to the Tory membership that will be voting for the next leader. Fareham survived as a Conservative hold only because they had such a strong position, they still lost 5 seats and suffered a 10% drop in vote share.
Andy Street is a decent guy. That's how you give a losing speech.
He should join Labour.
This place tonight is rather nasty. It’s perfectly possible to be a conservative and be a decent guy. Being conservative is a view of how the world works, and how you think the country should be run. Being labour has different views on that. Their is an astonishingly nasty streak of some posters on here tonight (not talking about you, horse). The bile is coming from the left. It’s time for Labour to have their go at running the country. But to here some, a party that was in tatters a few short years ago are set for a decade of power, all before a single vote in the GE has been cast. Hubris, I name thee Heathener.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
TRUSS
Oh and Badenoch. Who is less mad but still too obsessed with culture wars.
Kemi won't want to be assoicated with defeat. I doubt she'll even stand.
No, for a caretaker to mitigate disaster, is really has to be an elder statesman or grandee.
Theresa May. IDS. Or even maybe Lord Cameron???
If Sunak falls this weekend then Kemi is the Kate Forbes of this leadership election.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
TRUSS
Oh and Badenoch. Who is less mad but still too obsessed with culture wars.
Kemi won't want to be assoicated with defeat. I doubt she'll even stand.
No, for a caretaker to mitigate disaster, is really has to be an elder statesman or grandee.
Theresa May. IDS. Or even maybe Lord Cameron???
If Sunak falls this weekend then Kemi is the Kate Forbes of this leadership election.
The plan is that Starmer is heading for Downing Street...
Not sure the results could have been worse for Sunak frankly.
I am torn on this.
Almost universally the swing in the locals was smaller than implied by polls. Still suggests a Labour majority but not as big as some of the mad projections.
But, Reform barely troubled the scorers. This was an election with no meaningful Reform protest vote option in most constituencies. So does it give us a picture of what a GE might actually look like once that chimeric 15% Reform polling disappears? Perhaps. And it’s still a solid Labour majority.
LLG votes seem quite consistent with polling, perhaps a point or two down. RefCon votes are in line with polling.
I think it’s been a good practice run for tactical voting. Lots of evidence of that in several contests, including the London mayor with the green vote dropping. In past elections people indulged their crush first then did the real candidate as second preference. This time they clocked it was FPTP and voted accordingly.
Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.
But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
Musselburgh has a train station!
But not at the High Street, which is what I'm thinking of. Not the old workhouse on the outskirts. Or Monktonhall ex-Colliery.
Musselburgh to Waverley (by car) = 7 miles Old Oak Common to Euston (by car) = 7 miles
Can you get from OOC to Euston by rail now Sunak has given in to the road and air lobby, er, scaled back the tracks to Euston?
Wouldn't you have to walk to Willesden Junction and pick up whatever Khan's calling the Overground this week?
It will be easier to change at Birmingham.
Which is the point, really. It will actually be slower, on this scheme, to get from Birmingham to London on HS2 than it would be on the WCML.
It can still take the non-stoppers on the Trent Valley Line from Stoke, Liverpool, Manchester and Holyhead - and there are a fair number of them - but it's not going to do as much as it should have done to resolve capacity.
Which means it will make less money.
Which makes building it more expensive.
Sunak really doesn't understand money.
Treasury logic at work, I think.
Is it even possible to change at Brum? I thought HS2 was Curzon St, not NS.
Andy Street is a decent guy. That's how you give a losing speech.
He should join Labour.
This place tonight is rather nasty. It’s perfectly possible to be a conservative and be a decent guy. Being conservative is a view of how the world works, and how you think the country should be run. Being labour has different views on that. Their is an astonishingly nasty streak of some posters on here tonight (not talking about you, horse). The bile is coming from the left. It’s time for Labour to have their go at running the country. But to here some, a party that was in tatters a few short years ago are set for a decade of power, all before a single vote in the GE has been cast. Hubris, I name thee Heathener.
I wasn't saying Tories can't be decent people, or wishing to imply that.
I think he deserves better than the party he's in - and if he joined Labour he'd probably get a lot more done. He seems politically closer to Labour than the Tories right now.
Amazing what bad expectations management for one predictable Labour victory (London) and one very narrow mayoralty loss (W mids) can do for the vibes around an election.
In both cases the results were better for the Tories than party polling would have suggested. Yet because they did some stupid game playing yesterday they now look terrible.
Meanwhile I think I’m right in thinking the mayoral election with the biggest swing to Labour was Teesside?
Amazing what bad expectations management for one predictable Labour victory (London) and one very narrow mayoralty loss (W mids) can do for the vibes around an election.
In both cases the results were better for the Tories than party polling would have suggested. Yet because they did some stupid game playing yesterday they now look terrible.
Meanwhile I think I’m right in thinking the mayoral election with the biggest swing to Labour was Teesside?
Amazing what bad expectations management for one predictable Labour victory (London) and one very narrow mayoralty loss (W mids) can do for the vibes around an election.
In both cases the results were better for the Tories than party polling would have suggested. Yet because they did some stupid game playing yesterday they now look terrible.
Meanwhile I think I’m right in thinking the mayoral election with the biggest swing to Labour was Teesside?
Depends what your starting point is. Houchen is ahead of where he was, when he first won.
INSIDE WESTMINSTER: How 'coiled mamba' Boris could come back to save the Tories from total annihilation - even though Rishi 'hasn't picked up the phone' | Daily Mail Online
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard … the message is clear: winning from the centre ground is key.' (Sky News)
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
It's the future for the party but the Midlands have not been Labour's backyard since at least 2010. The Midlands, both east and west was where the Tory majorities have come from over the last 14 years on an increasing trend up to 2019. We now seem to be having a spectacular U turn. There will be absolute carnage there at the GE.
Andy Street is a decent guy. That's how you give a losing speech.
He should join Labour.
This place tonight is rather nasty. It’s perfectly possible to be a conservative and be a decent guy. Being conservative is a view of how the world works, and how you think the country should be run. Being labour has different views on that. Their is an astonishingly nasty streak of some posters on here tonight (not talking about you, horse). The bile is coming from the left. It’s time for Labour to have their go at running the country. But to here some, a party that was in tatters a few short years ago are set for a decade of power, all before a single vote in the GE has been cast. Hubris, I name thee Heathener.
Sorry dude, but this "I'm very sad because bile is directed at the tories" line feels very pathetic. The Tories have made a bloody mess over the last five years in the most arrogant, inconsiderate way possible. The reason Street gets so much kudos is he isn't that person. He's what the tory party could be if they weren't full of people who are corrupt, incompetent, stupid or borderline evil. That's why they cop the sharp edge of the tongue. Just like Labour did under Corbyn. The lesson is simple: be better.
From my very sparse look into PB over the last two days it seems the pollsters got it pretty near spot on while several PB posters-the noisy ones -got it miles out.
There used to be four or five- David Hurdson for example and a few who are now banned who knew their subject and supplied genuine insight-but they've been replaced by those 'inebriated by the exuberance of their own verbosity' who are just stocking fillers
Andy Street is a decent guy. That's how you give a losing speech.
He should join Labour.
This place tonight is rather nasty. It’s perfectly possible to be a conservative and be a decent guy. Being conservative is a view of how the world works, and how you think the country should be run. Being labour has different views on that. Their is an astonishingly nasty streak of some posters on here tonight (not talking about you, horse). The bile is coming from the left. It’s time for Labour to have their go at running the country. But to here some, a party that was in tatters a few short years ago are set for a decade of power, all before a single vote in the GE has been cast. Hubris, I name thee Heathener.
Sorry dude, but this "I'm very sad because bile is directed at the tories" line feels very pathetic. The Tories have made a bloody mess over the last five years in the most arrogant, inconsiderate way possible. The reason Street gets so much kudos is he isn't that person. He's what the tory party could be if they weren't full of people who are corrupt, incompetent, stupid or borderline evil. That's why they cop the sharp edge of the tongue. Just like Labour did under Corbyn. The lesson is simple: be better.
I’m not trying to defend the Tories, far from it. It’s just the tone from some posters is rather nasty.
It’s easy and in my view rather lazy the blame the incumbent government during a once in a century pandemic and a major European war with resulting surgedvinflation for all the ills of the country. Starmer and Labour will not find many easy answers out there. I wish that there were.
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard’ (Sky News)
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
I could see, in a future where the Tories get their shit together, Street leading a Roosveltian Tory party. You'd need to stuff the loons in their box though.
When you say "Rooseveltian" are you referring to Theodore OR to Franklin?
Or possibly Eleanor, who IF she were Spanish, would have been, Roosevelt y Roosevelt.
Reckon that re: Street and Tories, TR is likely best fit among the Roosevelts, Sagamore Hill or Hyde Park.
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard’ (Sky News)
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
I could see, in a future where the Tories get their shit together, Street leading a Roosveltian Tory party. You'd need to stuff the loons in their box though.
Yep.
I rather liked Andy Street after that interview.
I fear the tories are going to head even further down the rabbit hole: look at the nonsense Braverman has just written in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.
If they think centrists are not currently in a position where they will listen to the party then there could be a degree of sense in trying to reconstitute support further to the right in order to increase support.
The problem - or rather one of them - is that however much some in the party want to make appeals to the Faragite right, those people are not interested in limiting the damage to the Tories at the GE, because maximising damage will make those remaining more amendable to appeal even more.
Additionally, at some point they would need some level of appeal to centrists again, so a purely rightward focus may rebuild support, but can risk going too far to then pivot to the centre once it is ready to listen again.
Street's call I think would be in vain - the question is what path will make the Tory members feel like there was nothing they could have done because the leadership took the wrong direction? Even though Sunak is not a centrist, they think he is, so anything moderate will not win over the Members in the next leadership contest. It took Labour 3 defeats to learn their lesson.
Another Conservative leadership contest at this stage of the electoral cycle might not address any of the party's underlying problems, but it would - and I beg Tory MPs not to forget this - be very funny.
It would, but the general public would nuke them in the GE.
So I say, lets do it.
They're nuked anyway. The trend towards ELE has been clear and unambiguous for ages. This election cycle has only proven that the more extreme polls are true.
The Tories - lead by whomever - need a massive black swan event to save them. Sunak genuinely believes he is doing a Good Job and can't understand why they are in this mess. So keep going as long as possible waiting for salvation. If the party is too frit to remove him then they must also agree that he is doing a Good Job.
This was the Tory Party in microcosm. A coalition of the corrupt, the bonkers and the decent. Bonkers (Hall) and decent (Street) lost. Corruption is obviously the electoral winner then. Expect to see more of it.
Andy Street is a decent guy. That's how you give a losing speech.
He should join Labour.
This place tonight is rather nasty. It’s perfectly possible to be a conservative and be a decent guy. Being conservative is a view of how the world works, and how you think the country should be run. Being labour has different views on that. Their is an astonishingly nasty streak of some posters on here tonight (not talking about you, horse). The bile is coming from the left. It’s time for Labour to have their go at running the country. But to here some, a party that was in tatters a few short years ago are set for a decade of power, all before a single vote in the GE has been cast. Hubris, I name thee Heathener.
Sorry dude, but this "I'm very sad because bile is directed at the tories" line feels very pathetic. The Tories have made a bloody mess over the last five years in the most arrogant, inconsiderate way possible. The reason Street gets so much kudos is he isn't that person. He's what the tory party could be if they weren't full of people who are corrupt, incompetent, stupid or borderline evil. That's why they cop the sharp edge of the tongue. Just like Labour did under Corbyn. The lesson is simple: be better.
I’m not trying to defend the Tories, far from it. It’s just the tone from some posters is rather nasty.
It’s easy and in my view rather lazy the blame the incumbent government during a once in a century pandemic and a major European war with resulting surgedvinflation for all the ills of the country. Starmer and Labour will not find many easy answers out there. I wish that there were.
I'm sorry, what?
Are you saying we shouldn't blame the Tories for partying through lockdown - illegally - against their own advice?
I think everyone agrees they handled the vaccine rollout well and the pandemic itself the UK was middling but not terrible.
But what has anything since then got to do with it?
Boris Johnson chose to lie - nothing to do with COVID The Tories chose to defend Johnson's lies - nothing to do with COVID They chose to elect Liz Truss - nothing to do with COVID Rishi Sunak chose to cancel HS2 - nothing to do with COVID Rishi Sunak chose to pursue an electoral strategy based on one London seat - nothing to do with COVID
I think the Tories have been dealt a bad hand - and played it incredibly badly. You can't honestly say at this point Labour would have done any of those things with a straight face.
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard’ (Sky News)
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
I could see, in a future where the Tories get their shit together, Street leading a Roosveltian Tory party. You'd need to stuff the loons in their box though.
When you say "Rooseveltian" are you referring to Theodore OR to Franklin?
Or possibly Eleanor, who IF she were Spanish, would have been, Roosevelt y Roosevelt.
Reckon that re: Street and Tories, TR is likely best fit among the Roosevelts, Sagamore Hill or Hyde Park.
You talk a good Roosevelt game, but who gave Eleanor away at her wedding?
Andy Street: ‘Remember that this brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant, conservatism came within an ace of winning here in Labour’s backyard … the message is clear: winning from the centre ground is key.' (Sky News)
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
Tugendhat fits the frame, and is one of the few sane folk who would probably survive a Noah's Ark event at the next election.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
This is why they wont in the end move.
It is all piss and wind or whatever the expression de jour is.
Only Johnson makes sense as a 'what the fuck, nothing to lose here and he might just pull something off' candidate.
Couldn’t get back into Parliament. Unless ennobled, and that would decrease the Tory vote even further.
Andy Street is a decent guy. That's how you give a losing speech.
He should join Labour.
This place tonight is rather nasty. It’s perfectly possible to be a conservative and be a decent guy. Being conservative is a view of how the world works, and how you think the country should be run. Being labour has different views on that. Their is an astonishingly nasty streak of some posters on here tonight (not talking about you, horse). The bile is coming from the left. It’s time for Labour to have their go at running the country. But to here some, a party that was in tatters a few short years ago are set for a decade of power, all before a single vote in the GE has been cast. Hubris, I name thee Heathener.
Sorry dude, but this "I'm very sad because bile is directed at the tories" line feels very pathetic. The Tories have made a bloody mess over the last five years in the most arrogant, inconsiderate way possible. The reason Street gets so much kudos is he isn't that person. He's what the tory party could be if they weren't full of people who are corrupt, incompetent, stupid or borderline evil. That's why they cop the sharp edge of the tongue. Just like Labour did under Corbyn. The lesson is simple: be better.
I’m not trying to defend the Tories, far from it. It’s just the tone from some posters is rather nasty.
It’s easy and in my view rather lazy the blame the incumbent government during a once in a century pandemic and a major European war with resulting surgedvinflation for all the ills of the country. Starmer and Labour will not find many easy answers out there. I wish that there were.
Sure, but governments get saddled with crises. How they deal with them is definitional. FDR and Churchill with the Second World War, Callaghan and the Winter of Discontent, Thatcher and the Falklands, Johnson and Covid. You can deal with them with grace, stoicism, wit and steel like Winston and Thatch. You can blunder wildly through like Callaghan. Or you can careen around, trying to fool the electorate and lying through your teeth like Johnson. One of those will win the respect of the electorate (if not necessarily their vote). One will lose their vote and their respect. And one will piss them off royally. I'm really not surprised that people think the Tories are like poop on the sole of their shoe.
The plan is that Starmer is heading for Downing Street...
Not sure the results could have been worse for Sunak frankly.
I am torn on this.
Almost universally the swing in the locals was smaller than implied by polls. Still suggests a Labour majority but not as big as some of the mad projections.
But, Reform barely troubled the scorers. This was an election with no meaningful Reform protest vote option in most constituencies. So does it give us a picture of what a GE might actually look like once that chimeric 15% Reform polling disappears? Perhaps. And it’s still a solid Labour majority.
LLG votes seem quite consistent with polling, perhaps a point or two down. RefCon votes are in line with polling.
I think it’s been a good practice run for tactical voting. Lots of evidence of that in several contests, including the London mayor with the green vote dropping. In past elections people indulged their crush first then did the real candidate as second preference. This time they clocked it was FPTP and voted accordingly.
Of the twenty to twenty five councils that Labour could conceivably have flipped from the Conservatives they did so on every one bar one, Walsall, and one dead heat, Harlow. The other councils were Labour or Lib Dem dominated already. If this gets scaled up to a general election the Conservatives will be wiped out.
Labour could hardly have had a better set of results than this.
The plan is that Starmer is heading for Downing Street...
Not sure the results could have been worse for Sunak frankly.
I am torn on this.
Almost universally the swing in the locals was smaller than implied by polls. Still suggests a Labour majority but not as big as some of the mad projections.
But, Reform barely troubled the scorers. This was an election with no meaningful Reform protest vote option in most constituencies. So does it give us a picture of what a GE might actually look like once that chimeric 15% Reform polling disappears? Perhaps. And it’s still a solid Labour majority.
LLG votes seem quite consistent with polling, perhaps a point or two down. RefCon votes are in line with polling.
I think it’s been a good practice run for tactical voting. Lots of evidence of that in several contests, including the London mayor with the green vote dropping. In past elections people indulged their crush first then did the real candidate as second preference. This time they clocked it was FPTP and voted accordingly.
I think it's important to look at the realities of a few million votes and what it tells us about opinion polls that are snapshots of dissatisfaction etc. Labour are winning, almost certainly a majority and probably a handy working one like Boris got, but when the Tories are getting 32% in the Mayoralty and 26% in the list in London they ain't gonna be getting some of these madcap 20% opinion poll suggestions at a GE nationwide. Similarly, Reform got 16% in Blackpool in free hit protest, Tory sleaze by election. They're not getting 15% nationwide, nor 10%. 38 28 12 7 6 Lab, Con, LD, Ref, Green or thereabouts
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h These results were as bad as they could be for the Tories. Forget the spin. The rebel’s decision to call off the Rishi plot was made before a single vote was cast. The reality is they didn’t have the numbers and they didn’t have a candidate.
Another Conservative leadership contest at this stage of the electoral cycle might not address any of the party's underlying problems, but it would - and I beg Tory MPs not to forget this - be very funny.
It would, but the general public would nuke them in the GE.
So I say, lets do it.
They're nuked anyway. The trend towards ELE has been clear and unambiguous for ages. This election cycle has only proven that the more extreme polls are true.
The Tories - lead by whomever - need a massive black swan event to save them. Sunak genuinely believes he is doing a Good Job and can't understand why they are in this mess. So keep going as long as possible waiting for salvation. If the party is too frit to remove him then they must also agree that he is doing a Good Job.
He seems to be waiting for something to turn up. I don't think he knows what the something is, but he's still hoping for it.
We'll be going to the polls on the last possible date he can call it, at this rate.
What is so incredibly disappointing is that the Tories literally watched Labour commit electoral suicide for years and then have decided to copy them. It is baffling.
It is quite clear the Tories need to stop pandering to the right wing reactionary vote, the pensioners and get back to the middle ground, offering things to younger voters and those that work. Perhaps that includes a bit of nationalisation, perhaps it includes a bit of planning reform.
What they need to do is not that difficult. But they seem to be intent on calling me and anyone under the age of 95 feckless, lazy, woke and a snowflake. I have honestly lost the idea they even want my vote - as HYUFD keeps telling me, I am irrelevant.
Comments
Michael Gove- because it would be a suitably satirical end to the show if nobody else wants the gig
What a fool.
He hasn't a clue about politics.
@camillahmturner
🚨NEW: The Tory big beasts tipped to lose their seats
New analysis by Lib Dems suggests several major Conservative figures may be defeated at next general election
https://t.co/xTXn9QyneO
And with such regionalised swing numbers, analysing anything with national UNS doesn't look too clever for this cycle either.
Just imagine how much worse these could have been if a single bloke had not been paid thousands of pounds to get on a plane...
Oh god. Just imagining the utterly unbearable interview that Sunak is going to have to give after these results. Deluded,angry, robotic and desperate.
It is all piss and wind or whatever the expression de jour is.
Only Johnson makes sense as a 'what the fuck, nothing to lose here and he might just pull something off' candidate.
Breaking - Rishi Sunak facing new Tory unrest. A lot of dismay around tonight after Labour's clean sweep of mayoralties on Saturday. Some Tory MPs angry over spin on Friday that the party might win London and West Mids. Bumpy hours ahead
General view among Tory MPs is that Sunak won't face a challenge. But Andy Street's defeat in West Mids by just 1,508 has sapped morale. Even Ben Houchen's victory - featuring a big anti-Tory swing and the absence of a blue rosette - has hardly boosted morale
Any of you tories out there feel like listening?
No, for a caretaker to mitigate disaster, is really has to be an elder statesman or grandee.
Theresa May. IDS. Or even maybe Lord Cameron???
In both cases the results were better for the Tories than party polling would have suggested. Yet because they did some stupid game playing yesterday they now look terrible.
Meanwhile I think I’m right in thinking the mayoral election with the biggest swing to Labour was Teesside?
Labour do not have a PLAN.
I am DELIVERING on MY plan.
SMALLBOATS are bad for young SMOKERS.
The evidence of this week is that Richi is electoral poison.
Anybody that is not Richi would be better.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1h
These results were as bad as they could be for the Tories. Forget the spin. The rebel’s decision to call off the Rishi plot was made before a single vote was cast. The reality is they didn’t have the numbers and they didn’t have a candidate.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges
Boris Johnson didn't. He was always talking up the city. Same as Street in WM.
He should join Labour.
I rather liked Andy Street after that interview.
I fear the tories are going to head even further down the rabbit hole: look at the nonsense Braverman has just written in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.
It can still take the non-stoppers on the Trent Valley Line from Stoke, Liverpool, Manchester and Holyhead - and there are a fair number of them - but it's not going to do as much as it should have done to resolve capacity.
Which means it will make less money.
Which makes building it more expensive.
Sunak really doesn't understand money.
One day the Tories or their successors will return to the moderate centre ground where elections are won but I suspect they'll have a few years in the wilderness, howling at the moon, first.
Another Conservative leadership contest at this stage of the electoral cycle might not address any of the party's underlying problems, but it would - and I beg Tory MPs not to forget this - be very funny.
No idea what Laurence Fox's excuse is though.
Today's toxic "Conservatism" is toxic. Changing the leader will do nothing.
So I say, lets do it.
I’ve lost count of the number of election counts I’ve attended over the decades. But I can’t recall one quite so dramatic as the one in Fareham this week. We shed tears of sadness because long-standing councillors were convinced we had lost, followed by tears of relief upon realising we had scraped through.
In my small part of the world Conservatives held on because of strong local leadership, low council tax and well-managed local finances combined with first-class local services. It pains me to say it, but I must be honest: it was with no thanks to the national Conservative “brand”. Fareham Tories bucked the trend despite the national government.
From the south coast to the Midlands or London, wherever I knocked on doors and spoke to our voters, the message was too often: “We’re lifelong Conservatives but you’re not a Conservative Party anymore. We can’t vote for you. Show some backbone.” You don’t need the psephological expertise of Prof John Curtice to see that the national Conservatives are in deep trouble.
This week’s earthquake must be a wake-up call.
I feel like the "my local Tories are really good" might play well with her constituency but it's not the most diplomatic message to the Tory membership that will be voting for the next leader. Fareham survived as a Conservative hold only because they had such a strong position, they still lost 5 seats and suffered a 10% drop in vote share.
It’s time for Labour to have their go at running the country. But to here some, a party that was in tatters a few short years ago are set for a decade of power, all before a single vote in the GE has been cast. Hubris, I name thee Heathener.
I expect a similar result with seat totals reversed
If the Tories could find a Londoner who actually liked London and had some ideas for how to improve the city, they'd do a lot better.
Almost universally the swing in the locals was smaller than implied by polls. Still suggests a Labour majority but not as big as some of the mad projections.
But, Reform barely troubled the scorers. This was an election with no meaningful Reform protest vote option in most constituencies. So does it give us a picture of what a GE might actually look like once that chimeric 15% Reform polling disappears? Perhaps. And it’s still a solid Labour majority.
LLG votes seem quite consistent with polling, perhaps a point or two down. RefCon votes are in line with polling.
I think it’s been a good practice run for tactical voting. Lots of evidence of that in several contests, including the London mayor with the green vote dropping. In past elections people indulged their crush first then did the real candidate as second preference. This time they clocked it was FPTP and voted accordingly.
I think he deserves better than the party he's in - and if he joined Labour he'd probably get a lot more done. He seems politically closer to Labour than the Tories right now.
Good spot by @SamCoatesSky: the swing to Labour in Tees Valley was bigger than the swing in the West Midlands.
Even silver lining vibe for government falls apart on paper.
Silly man.
He’s only got himself to blame.
There used to be four or five- David Hurdson for example and a few who are now banned who knew their subject and supplied genuine insight-but they've been replaced by those 'inebriated by the exuberance of their own verbosity' who are just stocking fillers
It’s easy and in my view rather lazy the blame the incumbent government during a once in a century pandemic and a major European war with resulting surgedvinflation for all the ills of the country. Starmer and Labour will not find many easy answers out there. I wish that there were.
Or possibly Eleanor, who IF she were Spanish, would have been, Roosevelt y Roosevelt.
Reckon that re: Street and Tories, TR is likely best fit among the Roosevelts, Sagamore Hill or Hyde Park.
The problem - or rather one of them - is that however much some in the party want to make appeals to the Faragite right, those people are not interested in limiting the damage to the Tories at the GE, because maximising damage will make those remaining more amendable to appeal even more.
Additionally, at some point they would need some level of appeal to centrists again, so a purely rightward focus may rebuild support, but can risk going too far to then pivot to the centre once it is ready to listen again.
Street's call I think would be in vain - the question is what path will make the Tory members feel like there was nothing they could have done because the leadership took the wrong direction? Even though Sunak is not a centrist, they think he is, so anything moderate will not win over the Members in the next leadership contest. It took Labour 3 defeats to learn their lesson.
The Tories - lead by whomever - need a massive black swan event to save them. Sunak genuinely believes he is doing a Good Job and can't understand why they are in this mess. So keep going as long as possible waiting for salvation. If the party is too frit to remove him then they must also agree that he is doing a Good Job.
A coalition of the corrupt, the bonkers and the decent.
Bonkers (Hall) and decent (Street) lost.
Corruption is obviously the electoral winner then.
Expect to see more of it.
Are you saying we shouldn't blame the Tories for partying through lockdown - illegally - against their own advice?
I think everyone agrees they handled the vaccine rollout well and the pandemic itself the UK was middling but not terrible.
But what has anything since then got to do with it?
Boris Johnson chose to lie - nothing to do with COVID
The Tories chose to defend Johnson's lies - nothing to do with COVID
They chose to elect Liz Truss - nothing to do with COVID
Rishi Sunak chose to cancel HS2 - nothing to do with COVID
Rishi Sunak chose to pursue an electoral strategy based on one London seat - nothing to do with COVID
I think the Tories have been dealt a bad hand - and played it incredibly badly. You can't honestly say at this point Labour would have done any of those things with a straight face.
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph
📈18pt Labour lead
🌹Lab 44 (+1)
🌳Con 26 (-1)
➡️Reform 10 (=)
🔶LD 10 (+1)
🌍Green 3 (-1)
🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
⬜️Other 4 (=)
2,144 UK adults, 26-28 April
(chg 19-21 April)
Though could be luck rather than judgement.
Lab 444, Con 114, LD 50 on Electoral Calculus.
Labour could hardly have had a better set of results than this.
Labour are winning, almost certainly a majority and probably a handy working one like Boris got, but when the Tories are getting 32% in the Mayoralty and 26% in the list in London they ain't gonna be getting some of these madcap 20% opinion poll suggestions at a GE nationwide. Similarly, Reform got 16% in Blackpool in free hit protest, Tory sleaze by election. They're not getting 15% nationwide, nor 10%.
38 28 12 7 6 Lab, Con, LD, Ref, Green or thereabouts
We'll be going to the polls on the last possible date he can call it, at this rate.
It is quite clear the Tories need to stop pandering to the right wing reactionary vote, the pensioners and get back to the middle ground, offering things to younger voters and those that work. Perhaps that includes a bit of nationalisation, perhaps it includes a bit of planning reform.
What they need to do is not that difficult. But they seem to be intent on calling me and anyone under the age of 95 feckless, lazy, woke and a snowflake. I have honestly lost the idea they even want my vote - as HYUFD keeps telling me, I am irrelevant.