Parker winning has really punctured Sunak’s balloon.
Houchen his only real win in a sea of losses. Nearly 500 councillors down, and thin gruel where they did hold on.
A great cycle for all the others.
Greens made big strides - including Stroud, Bristol and Oxford. LibDems had a solid if unspectacular election, but one fought not on their best territory in the main. Dorset is a big prize. Labour won where they needed to, real signs that they can get a decent majority. Good performances in Cannock, Tamworth, Aldershot, Shoreham and Nuneaton will provide a big fillip, even before the mayoral successes.
Houchen Remember had such a swing against, it brought every Tory constituencies in his patch into play and a likely loss.
And still Sunak went there, to own the result.
And that moment was Tory highlight of the weekend.
Probably their best result was Harlow. Hard working, centrist MP, and practical (generally):local councillors.
Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter
The whole mood has suddenly shifted with one 1k vote loss.
Is this the most stupid 'analysis' of these elections?
Sadiq Khan has been re-elected as the Mayor of London with the smallest mandate since the office was created 24 years ago, analysis from the Electoral Reform Society shows.
The Labour politician won 43.8% of the vote, which was enough to secure him a third term under the new First Past the Post system.
If the rules are changed to not require a 50%+1 mandate then is very likely to be smaller.
Kicking myself that I didn't cash out on Hall when she was 4/1. Live and learn.
I probably owe @IanB2 on this because he made me think twice about taking profit.
You did well to make money, and deserve credit for it. But you did so by rescuing a bad bet because others turned out to have been more foolish still. Which, of course, is exactly what I did having backed Remain and Clinton, back then. A bad bet can be rescued provided you realise your mistake before others do.
Had you said from the outset that backing Hall was a trading bet, anticipating a wobble between polls closing and the count when you could cash out at a profit, then you’d deserve massive credit for calling it exactly right. But claiming the Hall bet was value, when she never had a snowballs of winning, wasn’t a good call.
We've been over this ground before earlier today.
She was value at the price available. At that stage I didn't know if I was going to hold or trade.
The fact she was value was enough for me to buy.
I suggest it is worth distinguishing between a bet made because you think the odds of the outcome are too long and a bet made because you think events will transpire to make other punters pile into an essentially losing position. They really are different things, even though, now and again, one can turn into the other.
I think people were rather foolish at any time to think Hall could actually win. I haven't been by this site of late but I could have told you that from actually living in London.
I think the Tories have really bought into this idea - and I've seen it here too - that Khan is really despised and hated in London. He really isn't.
I live in London too, but London is a huge place of nudging 10 million people. Since the early hours of the 24th June 2016 I’ve avoided confidently predicting anything is in the bag, for good.
INSIDE WESTMINSTER: How 'coiled mamba' Boris could come back to save the Tories from total annihilation - even though Rishi 'hasn't picked up the phone' | Daily Mail Online
Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter
The results are appalling. At the bottom end of expectations. Buthad they managed the messaging well they could have ridden it out - suggest they would do even worse and then "overperform".
Instead we have had: That asshat Sunak fly to Teesside to rant next to his rosette-phobic mayor that the result proves they are winning The party chairman embarrass himself and the party on an endless idiotic media round Hacks told they had won London when they got absolutely battered Street runs as an independent and still loses
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter
The whole mood has suddenly shifted with one 1k vote loss.
Madness. Vibes based politics. I suspect Rishi is safe anyway but hopefully limping towards an election without the support of the party.
INSIDE WESTMINSTER: How 'coiled mamba' Boris could come back to save the Tories from total annihilation - even though Rishi 'hasn't picked up the phone' | Daily Mail Online
If there's only 1,000 votes in it from an electorate of around 3 million, one could argue that there really ought to have been a recount in every area, not just one.
Really? I mean, I get that it’s a tight margin but I can’t imagine turnout was much higher than 40% so it’s certainly not 3m, and also the counts being done by constituency are not particularly close in each case.
Edit: turnout was just under 30% I believe.
And also population of 3m =/= electorate of 3m.
Again, a difference of a thousand or so *is* tight in an election where c. 600k voted (albeit now under fptp less than that for the two leading candidates). But one area has already been recounted.
Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter
The results are appalling. At the bottom end of expectations. Buthad they managed the messaging well they could have ridden it out - suggest they would do even worse and then "overperform".
Instead we have had: That asshat Sunak fly to Teesside to rant next to his rosette-phobic mayor that the result proves they are winning The party chairman embarrass himself and the party on an endless idiotic media round Hacks told they had won London when they got absolutely battered Street runs as an independent and still loses
Won't be at all surprised if it all kicks off.
HY said exactly the same thing about the messaging disaster earlier.
And there’s no creature more loyal to its party upon this earth, than a HY.
INSIDE WESTMINSTER: How 'coiled mamba' Boris could come back to save the Tories from total annihilation - even though Rishi 'hasn't picked up the phone' | Daily Mail Online
With Andy Street's loss, the locals starting to look like a real shoeing for the Conservatives now:
❌ Lost half the seats they held ❌ Lost 10/11 mayoral races ❌ Lost control of 12 councils ❌ Lost by a mile in Blackpool South ❌ Lost to Lib Dems on council seats won
Last Thursday was Richi's best date to call the election. The decision is no longer his.
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
Only trouble is, he isn't an MP and to become an MP he'd need to fight a by election and in by election terms there are no safe seats in the country, so.. no, sorry Nads. Boris ain't riding to the rescue this time.
I've had a very nice day out with family in Inverness. Heard that Khaaaaan has smashed it in London and wondered just how miserable the Tories must be after desperately ramping that they would win.
And now we have this. Which is
So, the only chink of light for the Tories is Ben Houchen. Who so refused to be a Tory that he wouldn't even wear a rosette at the count or giving his victory speech where he said he looked forward to working with Starmer. A victory where the swing was so large that all NE Tories will be gone at the GE.
And they say Sunak is now safe? Maaaaaarvelous. Though surely the election will now be as late as possible. Listen to Tory shills - the electorate are stupid, they don't understand all the good we are doing them, we "nearly won" (translation: lost), tax cuts and economic good times are ahead.
12th December or 23rd January.
Had many nice days in Inverness including our first night, plus the location for our Loch Ness private hire cabin cruising which created lots of memories for our children and recently our grandchildren
IMHO next election date 14th November or 12th December
You will be pleased to know that the River Ness walk is still beautiful.
Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter
The whole mood has suddenly shifted with one 1k vote loss.
Madness. Vibes based politics. I suspect Rishi is safe anyway but hopefully limping towards an election without the support of the party.
It’s surely too late to swap Penny in there? Just the madness of that instead of calling the General Election the voters want would lead to a worse result on its own.
Penny herself publicly ruled it out on Thursday, in her own bizarre way “You are not installing me in Number 10 like a new boiler.” Did anyone miss that?
Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter
As predicted by me yesterday morning. Don't rule out the Tories rolling the dice one last time (but it won't be Boris for the obvious reason he's not an MP and isn't likely to be this side of Election 24)
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.
A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.
To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
Woke is slowly dying.
Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
Woke is crystallised stupidity. It's up there with tulip fever, trephinning, and carrying a head scratcher because your three foot powdered wig is full of lice. It's a vulgarity of our age. That's how it will be looked upon.
You can choose to go with it because everyone else is, or you can step back from it and realise 'Oh, that's a bit fucking daft'. Go with it, and you hand the right wing the moral and intellectual high ground, as we've seen over trans.
You’re dying out guys. Sorry. But your day is past.
The country is itching to move on from the older, gammon and boomer, men.
A bright new, pink, open dawn approaches. I am celebrating.
And therein lies the seeds of your own future destruction.
I don’t think people will embrace self-hatred.
At the heart of “woke” is the belief that the West is rotten at heart and the past 250 years has been a story of hideous Western oppression. The United States is the Evil Empire.
Whereas, nobody in their right mind would want to live in the world of pre-US hegemony. Nor, embrace the alternative hegemonies.
Put bluntly, if you were to ask a serious historian, “when was the best time to be born”, they’d say “yesterday.”
There's also something about wallowing in identity groups that both reinforces them and polarises them, I think. And that's not healthy.
Fundamentally, it stops us looking at and treating it each other as individuals and provides an excuse for prejudgement.
But Brexit was about identity, wasn't it? Leavers spoke about "us" and "Britain" while Remainers were more concerned with the individual liberties that would be lost, or at least made more difficult.
Only trouble is, he isn't an MP and to become an MP he'd need to fight a by election and in by election terms there are no safe seats in the country, so.. no, sorry Nads. Boris ain't riding to the rescue this time.
That article wasn’t written by Nadine Dorries, she just tweeted a link to it
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
Something to come in Wales, though this time Labour will catch it.
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
I honestly think I'm not alone among Londoners in thinking that ULEZ is the one great thing that Khan has done. Personally, I'm mildly asthmatic and have an irregular heart rhythm. Why would I not want to breath less polluted air?
Only trouble is, he isn't an MP and to become an MP he'd need to fight a by election and in by election terms there are no safe seats in the country, so.. no, sorry Nads. Boris ain't riding to the rescue this time.
That article wasn’t written by Nadine Dorries, she just tweeted a link to it
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
I honestly think I'm not alone among Londoners in thinking that ULEZ is the one great thing that Khan has done. Personally, I'm mildly asthmatic and have an irregular heart rhythm. Why would I not want to breath less polluted air?
I wonder what the party lines were over the Clean Air Act of 1956?
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
I honestly think I'm not alone among Londoners in thinking that ULEZ is the one great thing that Khan has done. Personally, I'm mildly asthmatic and have an irregular heart rhythm. Why would I not want to breath less polluted air?
But what about all the red-faced angry people who don't live in London who imagine they aren't allowed to drive their vanity panzers through London? Who shall speak for this poor oppressed group of beaudied downtrodden?
Sadiq Khan has been re-elected as the Mayor of London with the smallest mandate since the office was created 24 years ago, analysis from the Electoral Reform Society shows.
The Labour politician won 43.8% of the vote, which was enough to secure him a third term under the new First Past the Post system.
If the rules are changed to not require a 50%+1 mandate then is very likely to be smaller.
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
I must admit to being worried, when hearing reports that London could be very close, the Tories have dragged this country to the sewers, and when it comes to Khan, let's call it for what it is, racism, the main reason some people dislike Khan is the colour of his skin/religion. Sadiq Khan is the not the best thing since sliced bread, but is definitely an improvement on the previous London Mayor, and certainly doesn't deserve the vitriol thrown at him, imo, hope has beaten hate, long may it continue
"Tories in crisis after Andy Street loses his seat as West Midlands mayor, being beaten into submission by Labour - in a second key victory for Keir Starmer after Sadiq Khan beat Conservative rival in London landslide”
Only trouble is, he isn't an MP and to become an MP he'd need to fight a by election and in by election terms there are no safe seats in the country, so.. no, sorry Nads. Boris ain't riding to the rescue this time.
That article wasn’t written by Nadine Dorries, she just tweeted a link to it
She was probably being sarcastic.
You obviously don’t care what I think of you… but you’re making yourself look a complete…. something that gets people banned… let’s say ‘berk’
It is the second year of disastrous expectations management, with the number of losses last year and with the Mayoral ramping this year.
So what can be said for the Tories to give them a glimmer of hope. I think PNV / NEV - 7 / 9% lead is a not a gimme for Labour, it is no worse for the Tories than last year, such numbers are bridgeable.
The amount of granular detail you would have to ignore to run with that (e.g. the bits where Labour is struggling is not where Con is competitive anyway, by elections are trending far worse for Con etc etc) is not really the point.
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
Something to come in Wales, though this time Labour will catch it.
It will be difficult to make comparisons given the blatantly rigged changes to the voting system, which I must get round to doing a thread header on at some point.
The trick is, finding time to make it short enough so that some persons on here with the attention span of a concussed gnat don't complain about the length.
Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.
But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
Musselburgh has a train station!
But not at the High Street, which is what I'm thinking of. Not the old workhouse on the outskirts. Or Monktonhall ex-Colliery.
Musselburgh to Waverley (by car) = 7 miles Old Oak Common to Euston (by car) = 7 miles
Oh, are you a Secret Squirrel that you can carry your car in your pocket?!
I get it now, you really meant 'Monktonhall for Musselburgh' in the good old 'Somewhere in nowhere for a town 5 miles away' GWR style. But to me Musselburgh is a town actually at the mouth of the Esk, not some random halt on the NBR. If you'd said 'change at Monktonhall for Waverley ...' But OOC is between Harlesden and Acton, no? Definitely in London. All part of London. One might as well complain that Liverpool Street Station was five miles from Harrods.
Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?
I would suspect not. I think that a fair proportion of Yakoob's 11% would have gone Labour with a second preference. Much more than any pick up from the Reform Party for Street.
On polling, YouGovs London Assembly polling was also out by a significant factor overstating Lab by 5 and understating Con by 5 and overstating Reform and LDs by a couple points
Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?
Do have to giggle. Tories pass voter ID laws which Rees-Mogg says were done to disenfranchise voters. And a switch to FPTP which was intended to splinter the anti-Tory vote.
And they still got demolished.
Don't they get it? They're hated by so many because they are so hateful. The only way to win is to not be them.
Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?
I would suspect not. I think that a fair proportion of Yakoob's 11% would have gone Labour with a second preference. Much more than any pick up from the Reform Party for Street.
Assuming they would have actually used their second preference vote, of course.
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
I honestly think I'm not alone among Londoners in thinking that ULEZ is the one great thing that Khan has done. Personally, I'm mildly asthmatic and have an irregular heart rhythm. Why would I not want to breath less polluted air?
The last few times I’ve been to London it’s just so pleasantly quiet. Between fewer cars and electric cars it sounds great.
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
Something to come in Wales, though this time Labour will catch it.
The trick is, finding time to make it short enough so that some persons on here with the attention span of a concussed gnat don't complain about the length.
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
I honestly think I'm not alone among Londoners in thinking that ULEZ is the one great thing that Khan has done. Personally, I'm mildly asthmatic and have an irregular heart rhythm. Why would I not want to breath less polluted air?
The last few times I’ve been to London it’s just so pleasantly quiet. Between fewer cars and electric cars it sounds great.
A trip to Oxford street doesn't feel like smoking a pack of fags these days.
Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?
I would suspect not. I think that a fair proportion of Yakoob's 11% would have gone Labour with a second preference. Much more than any pick up from the Reform Party for Street.
Assuming they would have actually used their second preference vote, of course.
Some would have. Just like some Reform would go Tory. But I think that the FPTP vote meant this was closer than it otherwise would have been. Let's face damn few were voting Tory in these elections and almost no one wanted them to win.
Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?
I would suspect not. I think that a fair proportion of Yakoob's 11% would have gone Labour with a second preference. Much more than any pick up from the Reform Party for Street.
Assuming they would have actually used their second preference vote, of course.
On polling, YouGovs London Assembly polling was also out by a significant factor overstating Lab by 5 and understating Con by 5 and overstating Reform and LDs by a couple points
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
Something to come in Wales, though this time Labour will catch it.
The trick is, finding time to make it short enough so that some persons on here with the attention span of a concussed gnat don't complain about the length.
Less is more.
Mike was brilliant at it.
Mike tended to write about very narrow subjects with very specific betting points.
If you want non-simplistic analysis of complex subjects with a wide variety of implications (like, say, the blatant rigging of a voting system for a 96 member devolved body) it's not actually easy to keep them short.
Feel free to write an analysis in two paragraphs if you think you can do better.
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
It is the second year of disastrous expectations management, with the number of losses last year and with the Mayoral ramping this year.
So what can be said for the Tories to give them a glimmer of hope. I think PNV / NEV - 7 / 9% lead is a not a gimme for Labour, it is no worse for the Tories than last year, such numbers are bridgeable.
The amount of granular detail you would have to ignore to run with that (e.g. the bits where Labour is struggling is not where Con is competitive anyway, by elections are trending far worse for Con etc etc) is not really the point.
With that amount of diversity of voting, the PNV / NEV is now a joke, a relic from a bygone era of 2 or 3 party politics. This time it told us nothing and concealed a lot. Such as where Labour and Lib Dem’s done best related to parliamentary target seats.
Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?
Do have to giggle. Tories pass voter ID laws which Rees-Mogg says were done to disenfranchise voters. And a switch to FPTP which was intended to splinter the anti-Tory vote.
And they still got demolished.
Don't they get it? They're hated by so many because they are so hateful. The only way to win is to not be them.
No they don’t get it. They don’t get it at all. You can see downthread that they are still banging on about culture wars and things that just don’t really matter to most people.
Street should have resigned over HS2 and run as the 'I get things done' indepedent guy.
Huge mistake sticking with the soiled brand.
More to the point Sunak made a terrible mistake by giving up on HS2. Not only was it economically illiterate it was political suicide pretty much everywhere north of London. He's made an astonishing number of mistakes for a clever guy but that one, to me, is, well, second to Rwanda.
On polling, YouGovs London Assembly polling was also out by a significant factor overstating Lab by 5 and understating Con by 5 and overstating Reform and LDs by a couple points
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
Kemi Badenoch- because she can't not stand Michael Gove- because it would be a suitably satirical end to the show if nobody else wants the gig
Comments
The Labour politician won 43.8% of the vote, which was enough to secure him a third term under the new First Past the Post system.
If the rules are changed to not require a 50%+1 mandate then is very likely to be smaller.
Or re-mamba
Instead we have had:
That asshat Sunak fly to Teesside to rant next to his rosette-phobic mayor that the result proves they are winning
The party chairman embarrass himself and the party on an endless idiotic media round
Hacks told they had won London when they got absolutely battered
Street runs as an independent and still loses
Won't be at all surprised if it all kicks off.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh5cTbMv8eQ
Nothing happening right now, but set up for announcement when there's something to announce.
Again, a difference of a thousand or so *is* tight in an election where c. 600k voted (albeit now under fptp less than that for the two leading candidates). But one area has already been recounted.
And there’s no creature more loyal to its party upon this earth, than a HY.
BBC LT 2000
Times Radio 500
500 would seem like recount territory but over 1000 not so much
Anyway apparently Tories are conceeding and no further request for recount so think Times is wrong?
With Andy Street's loss, the locals starting to look like a real shoeing for the Conservatives now:
❌ Lost half the seats they held
❌ Lost 10/11 mayoral races
❌ Lost control of 12 councils
❌ Lost by a mile in Blackpool South
❌ Lost to Lib Dems on council seats won
Last Thursday was Richi's best date to call the election. The decision is no longer his.
Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.
See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
He has more time to spend with his family I suppose.
Penny herself publicly ruled it out on Thursday, in her own bizarre way “You are not installing me in Number 10 like a new boiler.”
Did anyone miss that?
She’d turn out to be Caligula or Nero that one.
Results
Labour,
Richard Parker
Total votes
225,590
Share
37.8%
Conservative,
Andy Street
Total votes
224,082
Share
37.5%
Independent,
Akhmed Yakoob
Total votes
69,621
Share
11.7%
Reform UK,
Elaine Williams
Total votes
34,471
Share
5.8%
Green,
Siobhan Harper-Nunes
Total votes
31,036
Share
5.2%
Liberal Democrat,
Sunny Virk
Total votes
12,176
Share
2.0%
Mayoral election turnout
Registered voters:
2,018,541
Turnout:
30%
Change since last election:
-1.60%
Street and the Tories have got a lucky close second might be the truth.
Old Oak Common to Euston (by car) = 7 miles
The hospitals would have been overwhelmed with those injuring themselves with uncontrollable laughter.
There would be fewer Tory PCCs too.
"meh" - I don't drive
"great" - the air is cleaner
"it's annoying" - but I deal with it
The Tories do not understand this. They confused randomers outside London with those living in London.
Daily Mail
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13383225/andy-street-loses-west-midlands-mayor-election-richard-parker.html
I hope there is a proper analysis of who was turned away or otherwise prevented.
So what can be said for the Tories to give them a glimmer of hope. I think PNV / NEV - 7 / 9% lead is a not a gimme for Labour, it is no worse for the Tories than last year, such numbers are bridgeable.
The amount of granular detail you would have to ignore to run with that (e.g. the bits where Labour is struggling is not where Con is competitive anyway, by elections are trending far worse for Con etc etc) is not really the point.
The trick is, finding time to make it short enough so that some persons on here with the attention span of a concussed gnat don't complain about the length.
I get it now, you really meant 'Monktonhall for Musselburgh' in the good old 'Somewhere in nowhere for a town 5 miles away' GWR style. But to me Musselburgh is a town actually at the mouth of the Esk, not some random halt on the NBR. If you'd said 'change at Monktonhall for Waverley ...' But OOC is between Harlesden and Acton, no? Definitely in London. All part of London. One might as well complain that Liverpool Street Station was five miles from Harrods.
Wouldn't you have to walk to Willesden Junction and pick up whatever Khan's calling the Overground this week?
And they still got demolished.
Don't they get it? They're hated by so many because they are so hateful. The only way to win is to not be them.
Mike was brilliant at it.
Huge mistake sticking with the soiled brand.
To lose by such a narrow margin must be galling for Street .
It’s also a lesson for those that sit at home moaning about results and don’t bother to vote . Your vote can make a difference.
If you want non-simplistic analysis of complex subjects with a wide variety of implications (like, say, the blatant rigging of a voting system for a 96 member devolved body) it's not actually easy to keep them short.
Feel free to write an analysis in two paragraphs if you think you can do better.
Those mayors will be important under a Labour Government. Another reason why the tory comeback is going to take a long time.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig?
Priti Patel - mad
Suella Braverman - mad
Penny Mordaunt - ineffective
Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time
Boris Johnson - because hopium
Liz Truss
Anyone else?
People are tired of this hateful nasty party.
Michael Gove- because it would be a suitably satirical end to the show if nobody else wants the gig