The pressure could be back on Sunak – politicalbetting.com

System · May 4

The pressure could be back on Sunak – politicalbetting.com

The Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Mids. If Andy Street loses, the narrative for Rishi Sunak could get much worse. Watch out for any disgruntled Conservatives speaking out…

Read the full story here

viewcode · May 4

First?

ydoethur · May 4

viewcode said:
First?

Unlike Susan Hall...

viewcode · May 4

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:
First?
Unlike Susan Hall...

dixiedean · May 4

Third like the Tories.
Or even fourth.

ydoethur · May 4

dixiedean said:
Third like the Tories.

You didn't even manage that.

But, this may have been Freudian...

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

BREAKING

They have found hundreds more votes for Andy Street at the West Midlands count, sources tell me

This could go down to the wire.

There could just be a few hundred votes in it.

Around 3 million Brits are eligible to vote in the election.

https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786818044074873050

dixiedean · May 4

Am amazed the pressure ever came off.
It appears to have been based on a wholly predictable win in Tees Valley, by a smaller margin than expected, a presumed win in the West Midlands, before any vote had been counted, and some ludicrous spin about a knife edge result in London.

TheScreamingEagles · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
BREAKING

They have found hundreds more votes for Andy Street at the West Midlands count, sources tell me

This could go down to the wire.

There could just be a few hundred votes in it.

Around 3 million Brits are eligible to vote in the election.

https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786818044074873050

Called it on the last thread.

A Tory bundle ended up in the wrong pile.

Casino_Royale · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
BREAKING

They have found hundreds more votes for Andy Street at the West Midlands count, sources tell me

This could go down to the wire.

There could just be a few hundred votes in it.

Around 3 million Brits are eligible to vote in the election.

https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786818044074873050

"Found" ?

This is all too much. Doubt anyone will be happy with it.

And I still think he's lost, even though I'm desperate for him not to.

TheScreamingEagles · May 4

Right, that's me back to the other half.

Hope nothing major happens tonight.

Casino_Royale · May 4

TheScreamingEagles said:
Right, that's me back to the other half.

Hope nothing major happens tonight.

I'll be "celebrating" all night with my wife if Andy Street does it.

Of course, I won't disclose that.

Luckyguy1983 · May 4

Who decided that the plotters had chucked it in anyway?

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I saw a Tweet to the effect that Sunak had written his local election response using ChatGPT - that just indicates to me that in his head, he's already gone, and/or that nobody in his team gives enough of a fuck to write him something out of their head, or perhaps there's nobody in his team literate enough to do so.

Either way, why does he *want* to fight the election?

The 'plotters' need to go straight to Sunak. What does he want? Politically, Starmer isn't going to be able to give him a job even if he wanted to, so if there's anything Sunak wants that a PM can give him, the time is now. Ambassador to the USA would surely be worth considering.

ydoethur · May 4

TheScreamingEagles said:
Right, that's me back to the other half.

Hope nothing major happens tonight.

I'm sorry to hear you have such low expectations of your date.

ydoethur · May 4

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Right, that's me back to the other half.

Hope nothing major happens tonight.
I'll be "celebrating" all night with my wife if Andy Street does it.

Of course, I won't disclose that.

Why would Andy Street be celebrating all night with your wife?

SandyRentool · May 4

A Tory bundle in the Labour pile is an 'away goals count double' kind of situation.

rottenborough · May 4

The rebels will try and topple Sunak because of Andy Street losing?

They really are idiots aren't they?

Losing N Yorks should have been more of a tipping point.

Andy_JS · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
BREAKING

They have found hundreds more votes for Andy Street at the West Midlands count, sources tell me

This could go down to the wire.

There could just be a few hundred votes in it.

Around 3 million Brits are eligible to vote in the election.

https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786818044074873050

"Found votes"? This sounds like something you might expect in Bolivia. 😊

OldBasing · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
BREAKING

They have found hundreds more votes for Andy Street at the West Midlands count, sources tell me

This could go down to the wire.

There could just be a few hundred votes in it.

Around 3 million Brits are eligible to vote in the election.

https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786818044074873050

Stop the Count!

TheScreamingEagles · May 4

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Right, that's me back to the other half.

Hope nothing major happens tonight.
I'll be "celebrating" all night with my wife if Andy Street does it.

Of course, I won't disclose that.
Why would Andy Street be celebrating all night with your wife?

If the choice was celebrating with Michael Fabricant or Casino Royale's wife then I know what my answer would be.

dixiedean · May 4

rottenborough said:
The rebels will try and topple Sunak because of Andy Street losing?

They really are idiots aren't they?

Losing N Yorks should have been more of a tipping point.

Everyone seems to have already forgotten what a cataclysmic result Blackpool South was.
As a stand alone by election it would have destabilised any administration.

ydoethur · May 4

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Right, that's me back to the other half.

Hope nothing major happens tonight.
I'll be "celebrating" all night with my wife if Andy Street does it.

Of course, I won't disclose that.
Why would Andy Street be celebrating all night with your wife?
If the choice was celebrating with Michael Fabricant or Casino Royale's wife then I know what my answer would be.

As would I, and for that matter no doubt @Casino_Royale as well.

But we're sane. Street finds Fabricant attractive...

nico679 · May 4

Oh God KF again with her so called sources .

DougSeal · May 4

Luckyguy1983 said:
Who decided that the plotters had chucked it in anyway?

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I saw a Tweet to the effect that Sunak had written his local election response using ChatGPT - that just indicates to me that in his head, he's already gone, and/or that nobody in his team gives enough of a fuck to write him something out of their head, or perhaps there's nobody in his team literate enough to do so.

Either way, why does he *want* to fight the election?

The 'plotters' need to go straight to Sunak. What does he want? Politically, Starmer isn't going to be able to give him a job even if he wanted to, so if there's anything Sunak wants that a PM can give him, the time is now. Ambassador to the USA would surely be worth considering.

Why would Starmer want him as Ambassador to the USA?

Anabobazina · May 4

LOL

wooliedyed · May 4

The plot hinging on whether Street is 0.1% ahead or behind is ridiculous.
The worst result by swing for mayoralties was the only one they won.
Everyone else did respectably versus the opinion polls and from 2021 which was peak Tory this parliament (the brief initial honeymoon aside).
They need to knuckle down and focus on winning enough seats to challenge in 2028/9

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

rottenborough · May 4

Street drifted out to 4.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

What is for sure, is that Laura Kuenssberg's credibility is in the loo.

legatus · May 4

Were a partial recount to change the overall outcome, it seems unlikely that a full recount of the entire West Midlands region could be avoided. Failure to do that would seriously undermine the legitimacy of the result.Accusations of skullduggery might well then come up.

Heathener · May 4

nico679 said:
Oh God KF again with her so called sources .

I’m afraid so. I saw the tweet a while back that seems to have started it. Someone with about 12 followers just deciding that was what had happened.

I don’t think there’s any evidence from a reliable source at the count that piles of votes have gone missing or forgotten?

I really hope we don’t get more of this at the GE. It doesn’t help when there’s such a big gap between vote and count. It can fuel conspiracies as well as betting market manipulation.

nico679 · May 4

KFs so called sources have in the space of 48 hrs told us Hall won , and then don’t even know Labour can’t stop a recount. It’s up to the returning officer . Enough already !

murali_s · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Silly question PB but surely these journalists can just make up whatever they want. I mean there's no comeback and it's "anonymous"

SeaShantyIrish2 · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

Politics DOES make for strange bedfellows . . . as Andy Street already knows.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

murali_s said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.
To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...

One of our proudest "anti-woke" posters is happy Street is about to win. Strange!

Luckyguy1983 · May 4

DougSeal said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
Who decided that the plotters had chucked it in anyway?

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I saw a Tweet to the effect that Sunak had written his local election response using ChatGPT - that just indicates to me that in his head, he's already gone, and/or that nobody in his team gives enough of a fuck to write him something out of their head, or perhaps there's nobody in his team literate enough to do so.

Either way, why does he *want* to fight the election?

The 'plotters' need to go straight to Sunak. What does he want? Politically, Starmer isn't going to be able to give him a job even if he wanted to, so if there's anything Sunak wants that a PM can give him, the time is now. Ambassador to the USA would surely be worth considering.
Why would Starmer want him as Ambassador to the USA?

Nobody gives a shit who is ambassador to the USA. Starmer might want to reward Sunak for staying in power and thus diminishing the Tories' prospects against Labour. But he would have difficulty in rewarding Sunak for this help with honours and sinecures once in power because of his supporters.

Anabobazina · May 4

The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.

legatus · May 4

wooliedyed said:
The plot hinging on whether Street is 0.1% ahead or behind is ridiculous.
The worst result by swing for mayoralties was the only one they won.
Everyone else did respectably versus the opinion polls and from 2021 which was peak Tory this parliament (the brief initial honeymoon aside).
They need to knuckle down and focus on winning enough seats to challenge in 2028/9

That depends on the starting point to calculate swing. If 2017 is taken as the base, Houchen saw a swing of 5% in his favour over 7 years!

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Here is one of Kate Ferguson's SUPERB Tweets:

London Mayor count update:

Sadiq Khan is ahead in Wandsworth but neck and neck in Merton, according to sources....

Health warning - the count is ongoing!

https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786684549289689402

Heathener · May 4

The Coventry recount result is imminent

Sunil_Prasannan · May 4

OldBasing said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
BREAKING

They have found hundreds more votes for Andy Street at the West Midlands count, sources tell me

This could go down to the wire.

There could just be a few hundred votes in it.

Around 3 million Brits are eligible to vote in the election.

https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786818044074873050
Stop the Count!

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Coventry Result for West Midlands Mayor:

Parker: 46.4% (+2.8)
Street: 32.9% (-9.3)

Swing: 6.05% (Parker needs 4.5%)

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786822829360517490

Can we call it yet?

wooliedyed · May 4

6.05% swing to Parker
Precisely what is needed across the remaining two

Right on the wire

Sandwell should be slightly better for Lab so they should now take this

DougSeal · May 4

Perhaps we will have a week or two of court cases keeping the fact that Street lost or nearly lost (or won or nearly won) W. Mids in the news when we were led to believe he had won handily. And Hall was close. There are only so many times I can use the phrase “expectation management” on here without tripping the bot alert. What have the Tories PR people been smoking?

CJtheOptimist · May 4

Off topic, but one of the more stupid articles I've read recently.

https://www-express-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1895204/Premium-Bonds-savings-wealth-inequality/amp?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From %1$s&aoh=17148460806410&csi=0&referrer=https://www.google.com&ampshare=https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1895204/Premium-Bonds-savings-wealth-inequality

People who hold more premium bods are more likely to have a win, and that's not fair on people who have fewer.

What do they teach people in school these days? Maybe Rishi was right about maths classes all along.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.

Heathener · May 4

West Midlands mayoral race: Labour wins Coventry electoral area
Labour candidate Richard Parker finished top in the area with 32,704 votes.
Incumbent Tory Andy Street was second with 23,237.
Mr Street still has an overall lead - of 11,455 votes - but it's getting tighter.

Sky

BlancheLivermore · May 4

I've just worked out that I've got 196km to go in 5 days

I've walked 613km in 15 days so far, not all in the right direction

If I can stay on track, and find places to stay where I need them, a 20 day Camino is still on

I'm now in La Rioja region. Its unsurprisingly full of vineyards

Gallowgate · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.

It’s not a constituency election - the total vote across the whole of WM is what is important so it could be material.

rkrkrk · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
What is for sure, is that Laura Kuenssberg's credibility is in the loo.

She's far too quick to believe 'anonymous sources', and also far too happy to just report whatever spin doctors want her to say as an anonymous source.

DavidL · May 4

Anabobazina said:
The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.

It has indeed been weird. It was never close. Never. It made no logical sense after an election in which the Tories have been shellacked from one end of England to the other. It was mad. If this was shares there would be an insider dealing inquiry.

rottenborough · May 4

Why did the returning officer allow a recount?

I'm confused.

Sean_F · May 4

DougSeal said:
Perhaps we will have a week or two of court cases keeping the fact that Street lost or nearly lost (or won or nearly won) W. Mids in the news when we were led to believe he had won handily. And Hall was close. There are only so many times I can use the phrase “expectation management” on here without tripping the bot alert. What have the Tories PR people been smoking?

The Conservatives were not claiming Hall had won, rather excitable journalists.

What interests me is that the Conservatives quite significantly outpolled their national share in London. My guess is they’ll hold about 12 seats in the GE, in the capital.

rottenborough · May 4

Gallowgate said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.
It’s not a constituency election - the total vote across the whole of WM is what is important so it could be material.

Then the logic is recount the whole region.

This is a farce.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

DavidL said:

Anabobazina said:
The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.
It has indeed been weird. It was never close. Never. It made no logical sense after an election in which the Tories have been shellacked from one end of England to the other. It was mad. If this was shares there would be an insider dealing inquiry.

It is intriguing to see certain people who we KNOW said it was going to be close or Hall would win, rapidly pretending they didn't. They should have some damn humility and say they got it wrong

DougSeal · May 4

Anabobazina said:
The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.

I have to agree. I don’t know what some people were thinking. There was no evidence, none, that it was even close. The Sevanta poll, the one that turned out to be on the nail, still had him 10 points ahead.

wooliedyed · May 4

By my calcs if the swing in Sandwell is similar, labour are home by 1 to 2000 votes

legatus · May 4

Heathener said:
West Midlands mayoral race: Labour wins Coventry electoral area
Labour candidate Richard Parker finished top in the area with 32,704 votes.
Incumbent Tory Andy Street was second with 23,237.
Mr Street still has an overall lead - of 11,455 votes - but it's getting tighter.

Sky

Labour won Sandwell in 2021 by circa 5,700.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

This is the political editor of the Sun:

Tories up in the doughnut... 🍩

Labour down 8 per cent....

Su-nami!

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1786391851651522969

It is quite clear a lot of journalists are INCREDIBLY thick

algarkirk · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Silly question PB but surely these journalists can just make up whatever they want. I mean there's no comeback and it's "anonymous"

Like on course tipsters and three card trick merchants journalists have to make a living. Caveat emptor. You only have to wait a while before The Economist tells you what happened with a degree of reliability.

Back at the ranch Sky is making quite a bit of the Thrasher analysis, which I find interesting because, rightly or wrongly, it provides backing for my guesswork about the next GE - ie NOM likely. it deserves greater attention.

https://news.sky.com/story/labours-future-success-is-less-clear-cut-after-the-local-elections-13128314

dixiedean · May 4

Meanwhile Labour has gained the Cheshire PCC.

murali_s · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Coventry Result for West Midlands Mayor:

Parker: 46.4% (+2.8)
Street: 32.9% (-9.3)

Swing: 6.05% (Parker needs 4.5%)

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786822829360517490

Can we call it yet?

It's over, the Tory stain from the West Midlands will be removed.

Sunak in deep, deep poo-poo (as the header suggests).

Andy_JS · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.

That 10,000 margin obviously wasn't the cause of the recount.

bigjohnowls · May 4

Heathener said:
West Midlands mayoral race: Labour wins Coventry electoral area
Labour candidate Richard Parker finished top in the area with 32,704 votes.
Incumbent Tory Andy Street was second with 23,237.
Mr Street still has an overall lead - of 11,455 votes - but it's getting tighter.

Sky

Why did Street ask for the recount if he is ahead which other area isnt tallied?

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Andy_JS said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.
That 10,000 margin obviously wasn't the cause of the recount.

Or they requested a re-count as a "Hail Mary" because Street knows he lost there?

OnboardG1 · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
This is the political editor of the Sun:

Tories up in the doughnut... 🍩

Labour down 8 per cent....

Su-nami!

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1786391851651522969

It is quite clear a lot of journalists are INCREDIBLY thick

Harry Cole has always been a dipshit. There is precisely one good politics editor in UK news media and his name rhymes with Heathen Whoosh.

Richard_Tyndall · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.

No. You misunderstand. It doesn't matter by how much each side wins in an individual area. What matters is the overall number of votes across the whole mayoralty.

If there was evidence from bundle counting that an error had been made in Coventry then they had to have a recount. It is entirely possible that even though Street lost Coventry by 10,000 votes, if the original count said he lost by 11,000 votes and the final overall majority is, for example, a Labour win by 500 votes, then that Coverntry recount is the differnce between winning and losing the whole election.

ydoethur · May 4

bigjohnowls said:

Heathener said:
West Midlands mayoral race: Labour wins Coventry electoral area
Labour candidate Richard Parker finished top in the area with 32,704 votes.
Incumbent Tory Andy Street was second with 23,237.
Mr Street still has an overall lead - of 11,455 votes - but it's getting tighter.

Sky
Why did Street ask for the recount if he is ahead which other area isnt tallied?

Perhaps he was confused.

Like somebody who loses the electoral college 306-232 claims to have won.

Or somebody who comes second by over 50 seats thinks he 'won the argument.'

Heathener · May 4

bigjohnowls said:

Heathener said:
West Midlands mayoral race: Labour wins Coventry electoral area
Labour candidate Richard Parker finished top in the area with 32,704 votes.
Incumbent Tory Andy Street was second with 23,237.
Mr Street still has an overall lead - of 11,455 votes - but it's getting tighter.

Sky
Why did Street ask for the recount if he is ahead which other area isnt tallied?

[edit]

wooliedyed · May 4

Lab need to be 16 to 17% ahead in Sandwell to win. A swing of just under 5% will do it, every area outside Brum has provided that
Lab win

MoonRabbit · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Andy_JS said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.
That 10,000 margin obviously wasn't the cause of the recount.
Or they requested a re-count as a "Hail Mary" because Street knows he lost there?

I think it’s safe to call the win for a Street now?

The win % required in in last boro would be too difficult for Labour even without “there’s always a defence for every offence lawyer for Hamas” siphoning off some of these votes too?

Clearly the amount of votes this celebrity lawyer has siphoned off has prevented a big Labour win? Exactly like that angry foul tweet from Labour spokesman the other day?

The other thing I can confidently predict, it being a lawyer who saved Street - TSE has a lawyer header for us…

Richard_Tyndall · May 4

Anabobazina said:
The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.

Yesterday you posted:

"I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out."

You are hardly in a position to criticise others.

For the record I have said consistently that I had no idea who would win as I don't know enough about London to make any assumptions.

Monksfield · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.

No, because it’s part of a bigger whole, but a partial recount is more of a problem.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Just for the fake news brigade, no Sadiq Khan did not "refuse" to shake Susan Hall's hand:

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Richard_Tyndall said:

Anabobazina said:
The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.
Yesterday you posted:

"I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out."

You are hardly in a position to criticise others.

For the record I have said consistently that I had no idea who would win as I don't know enough about London to make any assumptions.

Yeah Anabobazina is just as silly as the journalists at the BBC and the Sun.

OnlyLivingBoy · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
This is the political editor of the Sun:

Tories up in the doughnut... 🍩

Labour down 8 per cent....

Su-nami!

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1786391851651522969

It is quite clear a lot of journalists are INCREDIBLY thick

Is inner London the delicious jammy centre?

Richard_Tyndall · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Anabobazina said:
The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.
Yesterday you posted:

"I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out."

You are hardly in a position to criticise others.

For the record I have said consistently that I had no idea who would win as I don't know enough about London to make any assumptions.
Yeah Anabobazina is just as silly as the journalists at the BBC and the Sun.

Oh I think that is a bit harsh! I certainly wouldn't go that far

Casino_Royale · May 4

murali_s said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.
To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...

Woke is slowly dying.

ydoethur · May 4

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
This is the political editor of the Sun:

Tories up in the doughnut... 🍩

Labour down 8 per cent....

Su-nami!

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1786391851651522969

It is quite clear a lot of journalists are INCREDIBLY thick
Is inner London the delicious jammy centre?

Where the artful Dodger hangs out.

rottenborough · May 4

Monksfield said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.
No, because it’s part of a bigger whole, but a partial recount is more of a problem.

Yep. This.

ToryJim · May 4

In regard to recounts, surely none of us are of the opinion that near enough is good enough? I’d much rather the returning officer agree to check the process to be certain of the vote counts. I’ve been on the receiving end of recounts, they prolong the agony but at least you have absolute certainty that the result is correct.

rottenborough · May 4

MoonRabbit said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Andy_JS said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.
That 10,000 margin obviously wasn't the cause of the recount.
Or they requested a re-count as a "Hail Mary" because Street knows he lost there?
I think it’s safe to call the win for a Street now?

The win % required in in last boro would be too difficult for Labour even without “there’s always a defence for every offence lawyer for Hamas” siphoning off some of these votes too?

3.5 on BF if you think this.

rottenborough · May 4

I'm green on W Mids market.

But have to admit I'm getting a bit Leon-level bored waiting for the result.

theoldpolitics · May 4

wooliedyed said:
Lab need to be 16 to 17% ahead in Sandwell to win. A swing of just under 5% will do it, every area outside Brum has provided that
Lab win

Labour were about 60% ahead in Sandwell in the locals, never mind 16%

(hyperbole, I haven't done the maths, but pretty sure it's at least 2:1).

Pulpstar · May 4

For anyone betting on it, Street has lost by about a thousand votes. My Dad has just left the Coventry count

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Casino_Royale said:

murali_s said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.
To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
Woke is slowly dying.

Didn't Sadiq Khan just get re-elected?

MoonRabbit · May 4

rottenborough said:

MoonRabbit said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Andy_JS said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.
That 10,000 margin obviously wasn't the cause of the recount.
Or they requested a re-count as a "Hail Mary" because Street knows he lost there?
I think it’s safe to call the win for a Street now?

The win % required in in last boro would be too difficult for Labour even without “there’s always a defence for every offence lawyer for Hamas” siphoning off some of these votes too?
3.5 on BF if you think this.

Political betting in a nutshell, as the vibe from Sky news is it’s a big ask for Labour.

theoldpolitics · May 4

theoldpolitics said:

wooliedyed said:
Lab need to be 16 to 17% ahead in Sandwell to win. A swing of just under 5% will do it, every area outside Brum has provided that
Lab win
Labour were about 60% ahead in Sandwell in the locals, never mind 16%

(hyperbole, I haven't done the maths, but pretty sure it's at least 2:1).

Found the actual numbers. Labour won the Council election in Sandwell with a total of 57% to Conservative 21%, across the area.

NeilVW · May 4

I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440 votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Susan Hall said the Mayoral election in London was a referendum on ULEZ.

Glad to have that one out the way.

Cleitophon · May 4

Casino_Royale said:

murali_s said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.
To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
Woke is slowly dying.

Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Labour are apparently saying they've won and beaten Andy Street.

Wulfrun_Phil · May 4

wooliedyed said:
Lab need to be 16 to 17% ahead in Sandwell to win. A swing of just under 5% will do it, every area outside Brum has provided that
Lab win

It seems incredibly tight now. The key statistic to me seems to be the proportion of the population of each borough that is Muslim. In Birmingham it is 29.9% = swing against Labour. Labour's best results in terms of swing have come in Wolverhampton and Solihull where the Muslim population is the lowest in the West Midlands at 5.5% and 5.3% respectively. Coventry is 10.4%. Sandwell is the second highest in the West Midlands after Birmingham at 13.4%, so you can't count on the swing to Labour in Sandwell being quite of the scale of the 6% in Coventry.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/maps/choropleth/identity/religion/religion-tb/muslim?msoa=E02002149

DavidL · May 4

NeilVW said:
I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440’votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post.

If the Old Politics numbers are right he is going to lose this last seat by about 18k and the whole thing by around 7k.

MoonRabbit · May 4

Richard_Tyndall said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Anabobazina said:
The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.
Yesterday you posted:

"I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out."

You are hardly in a position to criticise others.

For the record I have said consistently that I had no idea who would win as I don't know enough about London to make any assumptions.
Yeah Anabobazina is just as silly as the journalists at the BBC and the Sun.
Oh I think that is a bit harsh! I certainly wouldn't go that far

You didn’t have to put up with them Thursday night. Two minutes past midnight Friday morning I told him it would be what turned out to be the final result, spot on. And he’s still banging on about it this evening?

Heathener · May 4

Casino_Royale said:

murali_s said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.
To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
Woke is slowly dying.

I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.

Fairliered · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
What is for sure, is that Laura Kuenssberg's credibility is in the loo.

Kuenssberg was only put on earth to make Peston look intelligent and informed.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

Hearing that Richard Parker has formally won the West Midlands mayor election for Labour.

Concession from Andy Street is coming soon.

What a superb victory.

https://twitter.com/ringwodian/status/1786824354254262414

Heathener · May 4

Parker has won

williamglenn · May 4

Cleitophon said:

Casino_Royale said:

murali_s said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.
To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
Woke is slowly dying.
Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers

Are you predicting that wokeness will fizzle out or that it will become dominant, and what do you understand by woke?

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