How Betfair has been reacting over the last few days – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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They are not occurring evenly and predictably.bondegezou said:
If they don't apply to mayoral votes, then perhaps Birmingham has delivered for Labour?
What was the Birmingham swing in the PCC election?0 -
Wolverhampton..... https://twitter.com/LewisJWarner/status/1786769252512375216?s=19
Street is toast imo0 -
Street steady at 60
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Trump, and fallout.
The selected auditor for Trump Media, which is the one with the reverse takeover headed for a pump and dump, has been punished heavily by the regulator with a permanent suspension plus $14m of civil penalties.
It's called BG Borgias, and has rapidly developed a large client base amongst listed companies.
That is a result of intense micro-media attention to Trump & his dealings. Apparently missed by MSM, with a bit of followup coverage in the FT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGkjsruWVvw
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LOL.
As I typed he fell to 2.50 -
Castle Point going Labour was the icing for me! First time I’d voted Labour in a GE since 1964.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Boring? Best election night. Ever. Edgbaston. Stephen Twigg. Portillo. D:ream. A new day has dawned, has it not. What a time to be alive.bondegezou said:
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.algarkirk said:
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.Malmesbury said:
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….Casino_Royale said:BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.3 -
But we knew that was going to happen as soon as the exit poll was out. One might enjoy the journey, but the destination was known.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Boring? Best election night. Ever. Edgbaston. Stephen Twigg. Portillo. D:ream. A new day has dawned, has it not. What a time to be alive.bondegezou said:
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.algarkirk said:
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.Malmesbury said:
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….Casino_Royale said:BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.0 -
Solihull includes places like Chelmsley Wood. It ain't all Terry & June country.Andy_JS said:
Ironic if he loses because of a swing to Labour in Solihull.Casino_Royale said:
All the money is now against Street on Betfair so that might be true.wooliedyed said:Rumours (Harry Horton Lab sources) Tories have requested a recount in West Mids and its within 3000 votes, Street may well lose
It's possible he has just lost.0 -
I topped my Street bet up at 6.
Good times on BF1 -
Havering & Redbridge
Hall 82,859
Khan 50,780
Almost no swing again.0 -
Havering & Redbridge Results:
Tory 82859
Labour 50780
Green 7859
Reform 7554
Lib Dem 6417
2021 Results:
Tory 82361
Labour 498180 -
Good strategy, but I'm not chasing the market.rottenborough said:I topped my Street bet up at 6.
Good times on BF
I just don't have enough information.1 -
So I essayed a bit of gardening - planting out hostas, geums and brunneras. I am not exactly sylph-like though I have been slowly losing weight. Anyway, as I dug and planted and weeded, I found my trousers slowly falling down until - well, how can I put this - I was gardening in my pants which seemed to be making the same attempt to force me to become a Naked Gardener. Then I fell over into the honey bush - euphorbia mellifera, for any filthy minds out there.
Nice as it is to find one's clothes a bit too big for you, this was not the time to discover this. And so I had to retreat into the house - muddy and au naturel - before I scandalised the local birds, sheep and passing dog-walkers.
A picture of the euphorbia below - it has a magnificent smell of honey and the orange bracts set against the zingy green leaves make it look like an abstract painting. It is a thug, mind, and does need cutting back so falling into it and the enforced pruning that followed was probably necessary. Even if I reached that conclusion in a somewhat unconventional manner.
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Wolverhampton: Parker ahead of Street by 7,900. In 2021 Labour were 2,800 behind. So that's another 10,700 off Street's 2021 majority.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In 2021, the Tory lead in Solihull was 32,400. So the Tory lead in Solihull fell by 8,900 compared to 2021.legatus said:Sean_F said:
My back of the envelope calculation is that Labour will carry Birmingham by 25-30k, and that is probably not enough.No_Offence_Alan said:
Labour's running-a-shit-show in Birmingham is more of a problem.Andy_JS said:
Except that Labour's Gaza problem wouldn't manifest itself very much in Solihull.wooliedyed said:
Lol, that's total knife edge, Street might be in troubleAndy_JS said:Solihull:
Street 62.5%
Parker 20.8%
5% swing to Lab compared to 2021
The Tory lead in Solihull was 23,500.Sean_F said:
My back of the envelope calculation is that Labour will carry Birmingham by 25-30k, and that is probably not enough.No_Offence_Alan said:
Labour's running-a-shit-show in Birmingham is more of a problem.Andy_JS said:
Except that Labour's Gaza problem wouldn't manifest itself very much in Solihull.wooliedyed said:
Lol, that's total knife edge, Street might be in troubleAndy_JS said:Solihull:
Street 62.5%
Parker 20.8%
5% swing to Lab compared to 2021
Over the whole West Midlands, in 2021 Street won by 47,000.
So even though Solihull accounts for only 9.4% of the total votes cast in 2024, the Tories have already lost about 19% of their winning 2021 margin of 47,000.
At face value, even allowing for a poor result for Labour in Birmingham, my reaction is that that looks bad for Street.
Put another way, even if Labour only maintained its 2021 margin of 17,500 over the Conservatives in Birmingham, Labour only has to improve the margin by 7,800 in each of Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley, Sandwell and Coventry to get over the winning line. And the number of votes cast in 2024 in each of those five boroughs averaged about one-third more than the number cast in Solihull.
The results from Wolverhampton and Solihull alone mean that Street's 2021 majority of 47,000 has already been reduced by 19,600 or 42%, and those two boroughs account for only 19% of the votes cast.0 -
This Town.SandyRentool said:
Solihull includes places like Chelmsley Wood. It ain't all Terry & June country.Andy_JS said:
Ironic if he loses because of a swing to Labour in Solihull.Casino_Royale said:
All the money is now against Street on Betfair so that might be true.wooliedyed said:Rumours (Harry Horton Lab sources) Tories have requested a recount in West Mids and its within 3000 votes, Street may well lose
It's possible he has just lost.
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Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it0 -
Lambeth & Southwark
Khan 106,861
Hall 26,3471 -
Lambeth & Southwark Results:
Labour 106861
Tory 26347
Green 12446
Lib Dem 11463
Reform 3990
2021 Results:
Labour 93437
Tory 364712 -
If there is to be a recount, they will have to count the lot!0
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Did a YouTube search. The cowboy thing, with Vine performing a shoot-out in a saloon, was the 2008 local elections. I was thinking it was a GE but thankfully not. Who knows what graphics and AI will be conjured this time. The Elizabeth Tower swingometer stuff was good in 2015.numbertwelve said:
The Boat Party of the Damned was 2010 GE. IIRC, Vine’s awful cowboy skit was for the local elections, maybe even the year before?algarkirk said:
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.Malmesbury said:
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….Casino_Royale said:BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
But yes, both events were symptomatic of a sharp decline in the quality of BBC election night coverage. They have recovered a bit since, to be fair, though hardly spectacularly.
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At least it wasn't a mother-in-law's pincushion cactusCyclefree said:So I essayed a bit of gardening - planting out hostas, geums and brunneras. I am not exactly sylph-like though I have been slowly losing weight. Anyway, as I dug and planted and weeded, I found my trousers slowly falling down until - well, how can I put this - I was gardening in my pants which seemed to be making the same attempt to force me to become a Naked Gardener. Then I fell over into the honey bush - euphorbia mellifera, for any filthy minds out there.
Nice as it is to find one's clothes a bit too big for you, this was not the time to discover this. And so I had to retreat into the house - muddy and au naturel - before I scandalised the local birds, sheep and passing dog-walkers.
A picture of the euphorbia below - it has a magnificent smell of honey and the orange bracts set against the zingy green leaves make it look like an abstract painting. It is a thug, mind, and does need cutting back so falling into it and the enforced pruning that followed was probably necessary. Even if I reached that conclusion in a somewhat unconventional manner.
. 0 -
Havering and Redbridge is more proof Reform amount to little.4
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This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly".
I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
https://x.com/leokearse/status/1786742972123402626?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q1 -
The drunken boat party was indeed the 2010 GE, in the midst of the Euro economic crisis. Quite surreal.0
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I like the really close finishes in multi-member wards where one candidate for a particular party doesn't want a recount because they are just in, and the other very much does!OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/17867658527646762172 -
Both apply but in 1997 there was more enthusiasm for Blair and Labour than I detect for Starmer and Labour but hatred of Sunak, Truss etc is far, far greater than I remember it being for Major.bondegezou said:
I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.OllyT said:
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.bigjohnowls said:I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.2 -
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.isam said:
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it0 -
Andy Street is 100/1 (as you say) with William Hill. It might be a trading hedge if he loses today, which is starting to look likely but it is hard to see him going straight from Mayor to party leader.ping said:
I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.Andy_JS said:Solihull:
Street 62.5%
Parker 20.8%
5% swing to Lab compared to 2021
100/1 for next con leader looks generous to me, in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Patel/Badenoch/Braverman’s all knock each other out and the sane wing of the Tory party prevails.
The same firm has Aaron Bell 200/1.0 -
It seems like an eternity since Street was nailed on and Hall was in with a shout.
Now, Khan is nailed on and Street is in with a shout.
I think the sangfroid in the Tory Party over the results as a whole will be severely tested by Monday.3 -
Dudley a small Street win but another 10k off his majority0
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I can confirm that Mr Vine seems to be more interested in our former PCC's 5 speeding tickets, than in his Election Night 2008 Rootin' Tootin' Shootin' performance.
He has retweeted the former, bit not the latter (so far),0 -
maybe he misunderstood the green colour bit of Green?isam said:This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly".
I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
https://x.com/leokearse/status/1786742972123402626?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q0 -
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1751615691734520212/photo/1
"Moreover, although most people expect a clear Blair victory, there is little evidence of positive enthusiasm for Labour, or of high expectations of what the party would do in office."
Not 2024, 1997.1 -
Cannot see a path to victory for Street now0
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Wow. All Weather only then to the 2000G and wins. Mine came 2nd.
And wtf was all that "it's close" about yesterday on London Mayor? I got semi worried!0 -
Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.wooliedyed said:Cannot see a path to victory for Street now
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I think that's all the London Mayor Results, which would make the provisional results
Khan 1,088,225 43.8%
Hall 811,518 32.7%3 -
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centristsBenpointer said:
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.isam said:
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it0 -
This time yesterday, people thought Street had won easily and London would be down to the wire. Now Khan has won easily and W Mids is down to the wire.1
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Khan win now official0
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When did the SWP take over the Greens?rottenborough said:
maybe he misunderstood the green colour bit of Green?isam said:This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly".
I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
https://x.com/leokearse/status/1786742972123402626?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q0 -
Susan Hall gets 32.6% of the vote on current votes in. So that beats the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 on first preferences and the 29% he got in 2004. So she avoids the worst performance by a Conservative candidate in a London Mayoral election albeit still a clear Khan win2
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Once a party concedes defeat (which West Mids Labour seemed to do), one believes them.bondegezou said:This time yesterday, people thought Street had won easily and London would be down to the wire. Now Khan has won easily and W Mids is down to the wire.
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I know Jeremy Vine. He's got quite a sense of humour. The cowboy skit was hilarious. Totally unselfconscious!numbertwelve said:
The Boat Party of the Damned was 2010 GE. IIRC, Vine’s awful cowboy skit was for the local elections, maybe even the year before?algarkirk said:
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.Malmesbury said:
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….Casino_Royale said:BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
But yes, both events were symptomatic of a sharp decline in the quality of BBC election night coverage. They have recovered a bit since, to be fair, though hardly spectacularly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7JX8D1Kb880 -
At the risk of getting into a silly argument with you, your example simply illustrates OKC's point that winning sides don't ask for recounts.isam said:
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centristsBenpointer said:
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.isam said:
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.0 -
Not until it's announced at City Hall!bondegezou said:Khan win now official
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Street would have won had he stood as an Independent.4
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More a cul-de-sac...Northern_Al said:
Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.wooliedyed said:Cannot see a path to victory for Street now
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There's only one way from here.Northern_Al said:
Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.wooliedyed said:Cannot see a path to victory for Street now
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Not so fast, the vote is Close.Northern_Al said:
Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.wooliedyed said:Cannot see a path to victory for Street now
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Yes I was being sarcastic. Are you really too stupid to realise this?Benpointer said:
At the risk of getting into a silly argument with you, your example simply illustrates OKC's point that winning sides don't ask for recounts.isam said:
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centristsBenpointer said:
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.isam said:
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.
Why have I had a depressing day? What are you going on about?0 -
I think the 90s were just a more optimistic timeOllyT said:
Both apply but in 1997 there was more enthusiasm for Blair and Labour than I detect for Starmer and Labour but hatred of Sunak, Truss etc is far, far greater than I remember it being for Major.bondegezou said:
I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.OllyT said:
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.bigjohnowls said:I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.0 -
I wonder if the change in electoral system has actually bitten the Tories on the arse in the West Midlands? Probably not, as Labour did pick up more second choices than Street in 2021 - but it was reasonably close, you'd assume RefUK would predominantly have gone for Street, and he's burnished his "not like other Tories" image with HS2 so may well have done better on second choices than last time. We'll never know.2
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So it looks like the Tories can’t even play the expectation management game properly now….
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Street and Hall both lose, it seems.0
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Great expectation management from Team Sunak.bondegezou said:This time yesterday, people thought Street had won easily and London would be down to the wire. Now Khan has won easily and W Mids is down to the wire.
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Lol: "I made a dumb comment; I'll pretend I was being sarcastic."isam said:
Yes I was being sarcastic. Are you really too stupid to realise this?Benpointer said:
At the risk of getting into a silly argument with you, your example simply illustrates OKC's point that winning sides don't ask for recounts.isam said:
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centristsBenpointer said:
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.isam said:
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.
Why have I had a depressing day? What are you going on about?0 -
The day BJO joined?Benpointer said:
When did the SWP take over the Greens?rottenborough said:
maybe he misunderstood the green colour bit of Green?isam said:This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly".
I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
https://x.com/leokearse/status/1786742972123402626?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q2 -
The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.0
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Candidates are waiting to hear whether there’s going to be a full recount of votes, or bundle checks to verify the numbers. Either way, there’s a tense wait ahead.
Guardian0 -
As it happens ...Benpointer said:
When did the SWP take over the Greens?rottenborough said:
maybe he misunderstood the green colour bit of Green?isam said:This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly".
I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
https://x.com/leokearse/status/1786742972123402626?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
There was a significant influx after the Comrade Delta rape scandal in the SWP around 2010, where the SWP leadership wanted a rape allegation against a member of the senior leadership to be dealt with via the structures of the SWP, not a report to the police.
It was huge on the left / far left at the time.
But the Greens have long had virulently anti-Israel, sometimes (intentionally or unintentionally) stepping over into anti-Jewish looking, rhetoric (phrasing it for the the benefit of OGHM) from some elements.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Smith_(activist)0 -
IKWYM, but he did need the "vote for a donkey with a blue rosette" vote as well, which he'd have lost as an indy. He'd have needed the Conservative candidate to accidentally mess up their nomination form or something.Gardenwalker said:Street would have won had he stood as an Independent.
Rory the ex Tory pointed out that FPTP makes it much harder for independents to break through.2 -
There is definitely something in that.kamski said:
I think the 90s were just a more optimistic timeOllyT said:
Both apply but in 1997 there was more enthusiasm for Blair and Labour than I detect for Starmer and Labour but hatred of Sunak, Truss etc is far, far greater than I remember it being for Major.bondegezou said:
I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.OllyT said:
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.bigjohnowls said:I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.0 -
That famous Labour mayor Boris Johnson agrees.Andy_JS said:The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
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Maybe the June/early July election is back on now if CON rebels decide to move against Rishi and he calls the GE in response?
Has @MoonRabbit called it?0 -
Totally agree. He should have resigned over HS2 and run as an independent 'get things done' guy.Gardenwalker said:Street would have won had he stood as an Independent.
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Man, that Soros is a busy guy, is there anything he doesn't fund?
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One of my favourite recount moments was when I was Liberal agent in Feb 74 and was called, with the candidates and the other agents to a meeting with the Returning Officer. If, he said, we need a recount I’m going to lock the hall and we’ll all come back the next morning. As we’d just saved our deposit in 1966 and lost it in 1970 I asked what would happen if we were just shy of saving our deposit. The RO looked at me in astonishment and admitted he’d never thought of that happening.isam said:
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centristsBenpointer said:
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.isam said:
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
In the event the result was clear and we were well above the lost deposit level.1 -
To me, that was the turning point. Sunak’s Premiership was quite sane till that point. Winning an Uxbridge election, a blip on a bad night that won all the headlines despite all record swings against them same time, led to the Sunak credibility slide.rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
38m
One other thing to remember. The Tories didn't just build Susan Hall's campaign around a failed core vote strategy. Rishi Sunak tore up his own strategy after Uxbridge and tried to build a national campaign on the same basis.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/17867541392941386101 -
There's very little justice in politics. I know from people who worked with him that Steve Norris was a pleasant chap and very capable politician. Yet he was beaten in the mayoral race by an evil hard-Left anti-Semite and didn't do as well as a raving swivel-eyed Trumpian.HYUFD said:Susan Hall gets 32.6% of the vote on current votes in. So that beats the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 on first preferences and the 29% he got in 2004. So she avoids the worst performance by a Conservative candidate in a London Mayoral election albeit still a clear Khan win
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The Tories can win London with the right candidate and the right national circumstances, I think. The problem is that they keep nominating poor candidates.Andy_JS said:The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
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If they picked someone like Rory he could have won. But Rory is no longer welcome in the Tory party. Its not as simple as geographic movements, the Tory party has also moved far away from where it was just a decade ago, and aligned itself with some quite anti-London viewpoints as well.Andy_JS said:The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
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You can’t be this thick. Are you really prepared to look this stupid rather than concede you misread something?Benpointer said:
Lol: "I made a dumb comment; I'll pretend I was being sarcastic."isam said:
Yes I was being sarcastic. Are you really too stupid to realise this?Benpointer said:
At the risk of getting into a silly argument with you, your example simply illustrates OKC's point that winning sides don't ask for recounts.isam said:
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centristsBenpointer said:
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.isam said:
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?OldKingCole said:
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.Stuartinromford said:
A bit more from an ITV journo:Casino_Royale said:
It looks very tight.rottenborough said:Brum:
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Not sure what more data is available.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.
Why have I had a depressing day? What are you going on about?0 -
I'd like to see the full figures and a breakdown by borough. What of the remaining 24%.CatMan said:I think that's all the London Mayor Results, which would make the provisional results
Khan 1,088,225 43.8%
Hall 811,518 32.7%0 -
That "Labour candidate reported to the police" thing...
... It was mischief-making bollocks, wasn't it?0 -
Final London result
Khan 43.8%
Hall 32.7%1 -
I think it's more young professionals have moved to Labour.Andy_JS said:The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
There's a bit more to this here: Labour used to be strongly for WWC voters, and class-focussed, whereas now they are for public sector workers, private renters, identity based views and more "internationalist" vibes.
That's slap-bang where so many of them are. Labour would have to start directly hitting their financial interests for them to move back Tory, I think.5 -
If Street does lose Sunak celebrating the Tees Vally mayor victory despite a 16%+ swing against the Conservatives and with a candidate that distanced himself from the party as far as could comes across as desperate stuff, he would have been better keeping schtumm.numbertwelve said:So it looks like the Tories can’t even play the expectation management game properly now….
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Well, Sunak has played it well in a way. The papers were full of stories today about the backbench rebels calling off the dogs based on Tees Valley, the expectation of West Mids, and the hope of London. They may backtrack now, but the momentum may have gone a bit.numbertwelve said:So it looks like the Tories can’t even play the expectation management game properly now….
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Might dip into Facebook later to savour the howls of rage from elderly Kent residents whose posts involve a lot of union jacks and poor punctuation.bondegezou said:Khan win now official
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Your occasional reminder that Soros is 93!kle4 said:Man, that Soros is a busy guy, is there anything he doesn't fund?
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See here.FrankBooth said:
I'd like to see the full figures and a breakdown by borough. What of the remaining 24%.CatMan said:I think that's all the London Mayor Results, which would make the provisional results
Khan 1,088,225 43.8%
Hall 811,518 32.7%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election#Results_22 -
It's probably not possible, since you get the recount before any declaration, but it would be interesting to see how often it has changed a result. Probably not often, as counting is accurate and most races are not close enough to be affected by a few bundles.rottenborough said:Candidates are waiting to hear whether there’s going to be a full recount of votes, or bundle checks to verify the numbers. Either way, there’s a tense wait ahead.
Guardian0 -
I get he's a poor politician, but this is really basic stuff and he must have some advisers - so what's going on?SandyRentool said:
Great expectation management from Team Sunak.bondegezou said:This time yesterday, people thought Street had won easily and London would be down to the wire. Now Khan has won easily and W Mids is down to the wire.
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No, it was locals. The interest was in the fact that it would be close(ish) to the next election.bondegezou said:
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.algarkirk said:
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.Malmesbury said:
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….Casino_Royale said:BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
The gibberish childishness of it reminded me of 4am programming on some cable channels - random weird shite made up by the Z team.0 -
Lib Dems did well to beat the Greens in London.6
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There are some borough results here but it's not updated all of them yetFrankBooth said:
I'd like to see the full figures and a breakdown by borough. What of the remaining 24%.CatMan said:I think that's all the London Mayor Results, which would make the provisional results
Khan 1,088,225 43.8%
Hall 811,518 32.7%
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-mayoral-election-assembly-results-winners-sadiq-khan-susan-hall-b1155577.html
The headline results I got from the BBC site
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/england/mayors/E120000071 -
Enrico Dandalo the Doge of Venice travelled with the army when it went on the Fourth Crusade when he was 95, anything is possible.rottenborough said:
Your occasional reminder that Soros is 93!kle4 said:Man, that Soros is a busy guy, is there anything he doesn't fund?
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You poor, deluded fool. He's occupied the current Soros host body for 93 years, but the Deep State won't tell you how long these shapeshifting lizards have been on our planet in total.rottenborough said:
Your occasional reminder that Soros is 93!kle4 said:Man, that Soros is a busy guy, is there anything he doesn't fund?
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I think they've exhausted every Avenue.Benpointer said:
Not so fast, the vote is Close.Northern_Al said:
Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.wooliedyed said:Cannot see a path to victory for Street now
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In a fair system it's like umpiring in cricket - you get unlucky, but overall it evens out to most people getting justice.Stark_Dawning said:
There's very little justice in politics.HYUFD said:Susan Hall gets 32.6% of the vote on current votes in. So that beats the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 on first preferences and the 29% he got in 2004. So she avoids the worst performance by a Conservative candidate in a London Mayoral election albeit still a clear Khan win
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True, but Titanic is a great movie even if we know what happens to the ship.bondegezou said:
But we knew that was going to happen as soon as the exit poll was out. One might enjoy the journey, but the destination was known.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Boring? Best election night. Ever. Edgbaston. Stephen Twigg. Portillo. D:ream. A new day has dawned, has it not. What a time to be alive.bondegezou said:
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.algarkirk said:
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.Malmesbury said:
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….Casino_Royale said:BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.1 -
I think we can all agree that Boris Johnson is sui generis.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
That famous Labour mayor Boris Johnson agrees.Andy_JS said:The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
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Hacks on a boat with a bar. Who could have foretold the result?NeilVW said:The drunken boat party was indeed the 2010 GE, in the midst of the Euro economic crisis. Quite surreal.
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No way ahead for the poor chap's career?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I think they've exhausted every Avenue.Benpointer said:
Not so fast, the vote is Close.Northern_Al said:
Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.wooliedyed said:Cannot see a path to victory for Street now
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Street's stuck in a Cul-de-Sac.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I think they've exhausted every Avenue.Benpointer said:
Not so fast, the vote is Close.Northern_Al said:
Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.wooliedyed said:Cannot see a path to victory for Street now
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Former Epping Forest MP before Dame Eleanor of course and Transport Minister and lover of ladiesStark_Dawning said:
There's very little justice in politics. I know from people who worked with him that Steve Norris was a pleasant chap and very capable politician. Yet he was beaten in the mayoral race by an evil hard-Left anti-Semite and didn't do as well as a raving swivel-eyed Trumpian.HYUFD said:Susan Hall gets 32.6% of the vote on current votes in. So that beats the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 on first preferences and the 29% he got in 2004. So she avoids the worst performance by a Conservative candidate in a London Mayoral election albeit still a clear Khan win
0 -
Everything points to an utterly horrific wipeout for the conservatives, worse than anything they’ve previously experienced.
And the longer he waits, the worse it gets.
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A question for our polling experts. Everyone was rightly saying that if Khan lost it would be the biggest failure of polling practically ever. He won but with an 11% margin rather than the 20% margins that were being predicted.
Is this still a big polling error? 9% out seems big to me but not sure if that is just my perception.0
