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How Betfair has been reacting over the last few days – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    If you are explaining you are losing.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Fabricated news?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Wait, he’s doing what?!

    … (checks Wikipedia)

    Oh.
    Exactly...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,515

    Could be two hours before W Mids result now as recount in Coventry

    Why just Coventry ? If the total is that close, shouldn't they be recounting everywhere?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    Andy_JS said:

    Bloody hell, did the Tories really come third in the South West constituency despite having held it before? An absolute shocker of a result for them, unless the twitter post I just saw contained a typo.

    Yep South West London regional assembly goes to Lib Dems with Labour in second place. Tories a close third but 17,000 votes behind the Lib Dems.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    ydoethur said:

    Cannot see a path to victory for Street now

    Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.
    Not so fast, the vote is Close.
    Street gets, as part of a wider Tory cull, de sack.
    Avenue had enough of these puns?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Fabricated news?
    https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2021/12/09/being-a-character-isnt-something-i-force-says-eccentric-tory-mp-fabricant/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843

    Could be two hours before W Mids result now as recount in Coventry

    Why just Coventry ? If the total is that close, shouldn't they be recounting everywhere?
    I think they are grouped together by council area, a bit like the Brexit vote of yore.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,901
    Peter Kellner tells Times Radio that Nigel Farage leading Reform could be fatal for the Conservatives.

    “If he does fulfil that role…it could fatally undermine the Tories in a lot of the seats they’re defending.”

    If Nigel Farage returns to Reform, it would lead to a wider Labour majority, says Peter Kellner, former president of YouGov.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azyNdZpWNrc
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Mail: "The Khanage continues"

    Something Something Loser's Consent
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited May 4
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    Street is probably too moderate to be Tory leader for a term or 2. He is competent and would make a good PM but if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election the Conservative membership will blame them for defeat and want a more red meat rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    Cannot see a path to victory for Street now

    Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.
    Not so fast, the vote is Close.
    Street gets, as part of a wider Tory cull, de sack.
    Avenue had enough of these puns?
    I'm afraid I beat you to that one so the Avenue was blocked.
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126

    Recount in Coventry!

    Why just Coventry? Unless an error has been revealed there by the Bundle Recount , it makes no sense to restrict any Full Recount to one part of the Mayoral constituency.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058

    Mail: "The Khanage continues"

    Is that a reference to this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLC:_The_Carnage_Continues...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    They have become a reactionary party, just like they did in 1992-7.

    This country will move on and to whoever it was who claimed otherwise, we will also move on from culture wars. There are far more important things to focus on.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Full recount in Coventry - Sky News.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Fuck me, TwiX's very own GPT/Claude - Grok - actually has the personality of Elon Musk. Prickly, awkward, arrogant, with the weird jarring humour of Asperger's

    Is that deliberate??

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    I would have voted for Khan if it weren't for ULEZ. But as I couldn't bring myself to vote Tory, I backed the Binface instead!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cannot see a path to victory for Street now

    Agree; Street has reached the end of the Road.
    Not so fast, the vote is Close.
    Street gets, as part of a wider Tory cull, de sack.
    Avenue had enough of these puns?
    I'm afraid I beat you to that one so the Avenue was blocked.
    A Walk in the park for Parker.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Thoughts and prayers for any Lancashire supporters.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    edited May 4
    legatus said:

    Recount in Coventry!

    Why just Coventry? Unless an error has been revealed there by the Bundle Recount , it makes no sense to restrict any Full Recount to one part of the Mayoral constituency.
    Logically that's correct but doesn't always happen.

    If there's a full recount in Coventry, there ought to be a full recount in all the other areas, as you say.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843
    edited May 4
    legatus said:

    Recount in Coventry!

    Why just Coventry? Unless an error has been revealed there by the Bundle Recount , it makes no sense to restrict any Full Recount to one part of the Mayoral constituency.
    I think they are counting votes by council area, a bit like the Brexit vote of yore.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited May 4

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    In Outer London, where people drive, Khan's vote didn't increase (except in the wealthy pro green SW), in inner London it did.

    His margin in inner London, where you can walk easily or use a bus, taxi or tube and don't need the car, was enough to secure him victory in London overall
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534

    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
    But they probably don't consider him a Conservative any more.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    There is not the slightest evidence that Heath went cottaging as a young MP. That is scurrilous and pedalled by those who got sucked into the Operation Conifer debacle.

    He was a very shy man. That doesn’t mean he went out cottaging.

    What really annoys me about this is that Ted Heath is not alive to defend himself.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Andy_JS said:

    Full recount in Coventry - Sky News.

    Would just be easier for CON to concede they have lost. Get it over with. Down to the pub. Rishi to WhatsApp Charles on Tuesday to call the election!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    HYUFD said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    In Outer London, where people drive, Khan's vote didn't increase (except in the wealthy pro green SW), in inner London it did.

    His margin in inner London, where you can use a bus, taxi or tube and don't need the car, was enough to secure him victory in London overall
    Did he receive more votes than last time or not? It's a yes or no question.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,901
    No-one cares about Manchester where Andy Burnham has been re-elected. Burnham is 54 years old so there might be time to return to Westminster for a Starmer second term. He could be the Boris Johnson of the Labour Party but in a good way.
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Andy_JS said:

    legatus said:

    Recount in Coventry!

    Why just Coventry? Unless an error has been revealed there by the Bundle Recount , it makes no sense to restrict any Full Recount to one part of the Mayoral constituency.
    Logically that's correct but doesn't always happen.

    If there's a full recount in Coventry, there ought to be a full recount in all the other areas, as you say.
    Were it to change the overall result Labour would surely demand a Full Recount everywhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    Khan wins with a majority of 276,707 returning officer declares over Hall
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.

    I think it's more young professionals have moved to Labour.

    There's a bit more to this here: Labour used to be strongly for WWC voters, and class-focussed, whereas now they are for public sector workers, private renters, identity based views and more "internationalist" vibes.

    That's slap-bang where so many of them are. Labour would have to start directly hitting their financial interests for them to move back Tory, I think.
    Just to add to this: if the zeitgeist shifts away from identity based views (possible), home ownership goes up and the public sector becomes an unsustainable size, shifting jobs into the private sector, then I'd expect the politics of that group to shift too.

    Next few years will be interesting.
    As one of the voters to which you refer (having voted Tory in the past, I am sure you won't believe me but I have), the Tories would need to stop with the culture war nonsense and get back to centrist, open-looking politics. And build some houses.

    But I fear based on analysis here, they hold me and others in contempt. We're all communists or something. Snowflakes.
    Culture wars are the future of politics, whether we like it or not.
    Does anyone really care about this except the shrill know nothings at the Daily Heil and other discount media outlets? They stir it up, but their influence diminishes more each year, and one of the reasons is that we are learning more each day about their rather twisted agenda. People increasingly notice the tangible problems and want solutions, not some drivel that has been dreamed up by a coked up media bitch. Reform is entirely a media distraction and turn out to be a meaningless irrelevance as soon as the votes go into the boxes. Likewise the "Workers" Party.

    There is an unmet demand for serious politics and its time the unserious media learned enough to be able to report serious issues in an informed way, rather the rumour driven garbage we just saw in the last 24 hours.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.

    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    Hmmm, my bro’ has met him a few times and thinks he’s a weasel. Also has a less-than-helpful partner (Michael Fabricant).

    Andy Street made some poor decisions for JLP, including his vanity project store in Birmingham.

    And now he’s (probably) a loser.

    Sure you want him as leader?
    I don't share the personal criticism, but think it's wholly unrealistic that he'd be leader.

    Street is a seasoned Chief Executive, and he's brought that experience to do a solid job as West Midlands Mayor. He can afford to be somewhat independent in style, and work with a limited number of Council leaders etc. The qualities required to lead, manage and inspire a fractious party and difficult MPs in Westminster after a heavy election defeat are wholly different. He's also 60 which is not the first flush of youth (I know Starmer is older, but it's a two election job to get back).

    I think he could do a job as a credible frontbench spokesman, but that's it.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Andy_JS said:

    The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.

    I think it's more young professionals have moved to Labour.

    There's a bit more to this here: Labour used to be strongly for WWC voters, and class-focussed, whereas now they are for public sector workers, private renters, identity based views and more "internationalist" vibes.

    That's slap-bang where so many of them are. Labour would have to start directly hitting their financial interests for them to move back Tory, I think.
    Just to add to this: if the zeitgeist shifts away from identity based views (possible), home ownership goes up and the public sector becomes an unsustainable size, shifting jobs into the private sector, then I'd expect the politics of that group to shift too.

    Next few years will be interesting.
    As one of the voters to which you refer (having voted Tory in the past, I am sure you won't believe me but I have), the Tories would need to stop with the culture war nonsense and get back to centrist, open-looking politics. And build some houses.

    But I fear based on analysis here, they hold me and others in contempt. We're all communists or something. Snowflakes.
    Indeed. I voted for Cameron's Tory once (more as two fingers up to the SNP tbf). It's become pretty clear that the Tories are just the party of rentiers and the old at this point. Planning restrictions, workers rights erosion, cuts to local government, removal of childcare services, ditching plans to reform renters rights. It's basically a litany of "we don't care about the concerns of anyone under 70 so get stuffed".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    In Outer London, where people drive, Khan's vote didn't increase (except in the wealthy pro green SW), in inner London it did.

    His margin in inner London, where you can use a bus, taxi or tube and don't need the car, was enough to secure him victory in London overall
    Did he receive more votes than last time or not? It's a yes or no question.
    In inner London yes his margin was up, in Outer London there was no change and indeed in some areas like Bexley and Bromley Hall won comfortably
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Wait, he’s doing what?!

    … (checks Wikipedia)

    Oh.
    I would not have placed Street and Fabricant together in a million years. But there’s no accounting for taste!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
    Agree with all that bar the last bit. But he would have done better and just possibly sneaked it.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    In Outer London, where people drive, Khan's vote didn't increase (except in the wealthy pro green SW), in inner London it did.

    His margin in inner London, where you can use a bus, taxi or tube and don't need the car, was enough to secure him victory in London overall
    Did he receive more votes than last time or not? It's a yes or no question.
    In inner London yes his margin was up, in Outer London there was no change and indeed in some areas like Bexley and Bromley Hall won comfortably
    Sadiq Khan won more votes overall in 2024 than 2021. So how anyone can conclude that's not an endorsement of him/his policies is beyond me.

    And if we want to talk about Outer London, Khan beat Hall where Bailey won last time in one place. So how do you explain that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    There is not the slightest evidence that Heath went cottaging as a young MP. That is scurrilous and pedalled by those who got sucked into the Operation Conifer debacle.

    He was a very shy man. That doesn’t mean he went out cottaging.

    What really annoys me about this is that Ted Heath is not alive to defend himself.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/ted-heath-stopped-cottaging-for-gay-sex-to-protect-his-career-says-tory-mp-7186167.html

    There is evidence, it certainly is much less of a problem for his reputation than the allegations Savile procured boys for him on his yacht which was proved to be false
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited May 4
    deleted
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Coventry is 33000 Parker, 23500 Street
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Andy_JS said:

    Full recount in Coventry - Sky News.

    Could the BBC send Kuenssberg there?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Peter Kellner tells Times Radio that Nigel Farage leading Reform could be fatal for the Conservatives.

    “If he does fulfil that role…it could fatally undermine the Tories in a lot of the seats they’re defending.”

    If Nigel Farage returns to Reform, it would lead to a wider Labour majority, says Peter Kellner, former president of YouGov.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azyNdZpWNrc

    The country just wants rid of the Tories, anyway. The longer they hang on, the worse their end will be.

    Whether Farage wishes to appear at the funeral ready to kill an already dead body is no longer of any great consequence.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
    No, if Andy Street isn't walking even the West Midlands, Stewart certainly would't have won London either in the current climate
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784


    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something to cheer you up. I'm currently in the San Francisco Bay area and it's raining and colder than London. You're welcome.

    San Francisco often has pretty awful weather.

    You need to be in LA, where the sun is always shining.
    You don't even need to go to LA. The Bay Area has massively different weather depending on where you are and the climate in San Jose is nothing like San Francisco.
    I'm in Menlo Park, close to Palo Alto.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    It’s looking positive for Labour’s Richard Parker

    Recount won't 'materially change' Andy Street's numbers in West Midlands, Labour sources say
    Labour sources have suggested a recount in Coventry isn't going to "change materially" Tory incumbent Andy Street's numbers in the West Midlands mayoral race, Sky News political editor Beth Rigby says.
    A full recount has been ordered in the Coventry borough, with the race currently "too close to call".
    Beth, who is in Birmingham, says that while the result is on a "knife edge," there is hope in the Labour camp that Richard Parker could have edged the race.
    She says there will be a "massive upset" if Mr Street loses the mayoralty, with one former cabinet minister telling her it would be "devastating".
    Beth adds that there is chatter within the Conservative Party that if Mr Street does lose, he may be offered a parliamentary constituency, however, that remains "speculative".
    A short time ago, Labour sources told Sky News a recount was requested by Mr Street's team.


    3000 votes isn’t close in terms of errors, unless there’s been some sort of massive mistake like a missing pile. So I don’t think reflects very well on the Street team.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    Street is probably too moderate to be Tory leader for a term or 2. He is competent and would make a good PM but if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election the Conservative membership will blame them for defeat and want a more red meat rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition
    But for his sexuality, Street would have been castigated as a closet Tory.

    At least Houchen's election leaflets were in blue. I have a four page newspaper from Street printed in green throughout which I searched in vain for any mention of the word "Conservative".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Heathener said:

    It’s looking positive for Labour’s Richard Parker

    Recount won't 'materially change' Andy Street's numbers in West Midlands, Labour sources say
    Labour sources have suggested a recount in Coventry isn't going to "change materially" Tory incumbent Andy Street's numbers in the West Midlands mayoral race, Sky News political editor Beth Rigby says.
    A full recount has been ordered in the Coventry borough, with the race currently "too close to call".
    Beth, who is in Birmingham, says that while the result is on a "knife edge," there is hope in the Labour camp that Richard Parker could have edged the race.
    She says there will be a "massive upset" if Mr Street loses the mayoralty, with one former cabinet minister telling her it would be "devastating".
    Beth adds that there is chatter within the Conservative Party that if Mr Street does lose, he may be offered a parliamentary constituency, however, that remains "speculative".
    A short time ago, Labour sources told Sky News a recount was requested by Mr Street's team.


    3000 votes isn’t close in terms of errors, unless there’s been some sort of massive mistake like a missing pile. So I don’t think reflects very well on the Street team.

    How can they know what the result of the recount will be in advance of it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,901
    edited May 4
    deleted to investigate quote problem
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558

    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
    If they don't understand Londoners why did the Tory share go up slightly form 32.0% at the 2019 general election to 32.7% at this mayoral election?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    Street is probably too moderate to be Tory leader for a term or 2. He is competent and would make a good PM but if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election the Conservative membership will blame them for defeat and want a more red meat rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition
    But for his sexuality, Street would have been castigated as a closet Tory.

    At least Houchen's election leaflets were in blue. I have a four page newspaper from Street printed in green throughout which I searched in vain for any mention of the word "Conservative".
    The Wandsworth Tories did that here. Green all the way over. Tory written in such tiny font on the back you couldn't read it. Frankly I think it's on the verge of being fraudulent.

    Of course, it doesn't matter as they were always going to get drubbed.

    I remember their propaganda in 2021, when they said the Communists were going to take over if Labour won. Yawn.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    HYUFD said:

    Khan wins with a majority of 276,707 returning officer declares over Hall

    So a PB shoutout to all those who “bookmarked”, at his own request, Leon’s prediction that Khan would win by just 6%. Leondamus strikes again…
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
    If they don't understand Londoners why did the Tory share go up slightly form 32.0% at the 2019 general election to 32.7% at this mayoral election?
    Fine. They understand Londonders 0.7% better than in 2021. Just another 400 years and they might win.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Man, that Soros is a busy guy, is there anything he doesn't fund?

    Wait.

    So the scheming Jewish financier is funding Palestinian groups?

    That doesn't even begin to make sense.
    I think it would be fairly easy to check whether they are funded by George Soros - it would be a matter of public record, so speculating whether it's likely or unlikely seems unnecessary. The refutation in the interview doesn't seem terribly unequivocal either.
    A person making a claim has the burden of proving their claim I would say. Are others supposed to be able to instantly definitively refute every claim made by a guest? If I go on somewhere and claim Boris or Keir are funding a organisation which goes around stealing toys from orphans, is it on the interviewer to prove me wrong?
    The interviewee knew enough to know that the assertion was not supported by irrefutable evidence - that suggests that they had researched it. But they didn't know enough to offer a firm rebuttal.
    What it REALLY suggests, is that the interviewee, US Rep Nancy Mace (R-FlipFlop) is quoting MAGA-maniac talking points, trying to burnish her somewhat tarnished wack-job credentials ahead of the June 2024 regular South Carolina Republican primary.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.

    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    Hmmm, my bro’ has met him a few times and thinks he’s a weasel. Also has a less-than-helpful partner (Michael Fabricant).

    Andy Street made some poor decisions for JLP, including his vanity project store in Birmingham.

    And now he’s (probably) a loser.

    Sure you want him as leader?
    I don't share the personal criticism, but think it's wholly unrealistic that he'd be leader.

    Street is a seasoned Chief Executive, and he's brought that experience to do a solid job as West Midlands Mayor. He can afford to be somewhat independent in style, and work with a limited number of Council leaders etc. The qualities required to lead, manage and inspire a fractious party and difficult MPs in Westminster after a heavy election defeat are wholly different. He's also 60 which is not the first flush of youth (I know Starmer is older, but it's a two election job to get back).

    I think he could do a job as a credible frontbench spokesman, but that's it.
    The personal bit came from my bro’ who knows him a little (slightly more than just meeting him).

    Some of JLP’s problems actually stem from mistakes made by Andy Street e.g. over expanding number of stores at a time of economic retraction. The Birmingham store was a particular folly and bad mistake.

    Quite an error of judgement really for someone people are now lauding as their next tory saviour?

    https://www.itv.com/news/central/2020-07-09/john-lewis-in-birmingham-to-close-permanently
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,901
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    Street is probably too moderate to be Tory leader for a term or 2. He is competent and would make a good PM but if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election the Conservative membership will blame them for defeat and want a more red meat rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition
    Edward Heath was appointed a whip himself just a few months after being elected to parliament which is two reasons to doubt that rumour.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    There is not the slightest evidence that Heath went cottaging as a young MP. That is scurrilous and pedalled by those who got sucked into the Operation Conifer debacle.

    He was a very shy man. That doesn’t mean he went out cottaging.

    What really annoys me about this is that Ted Heath is not alive to defend himself.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/ted-heath-stopped-cottaging-for-gay-sex-to-protect-his-career-says-tory-mp-7186167.html

    There is evidence, it certainly is much less of a problem for his reputation than the allegations Savile procured boys for him on his yacht which was proved to be false
    You should desist this. That isn’t evidence at all. It’s rumour mongering without any basis in evidence.

    Rather like the latest Susan Hall fiasco, just because someone whispers something, doesn’t make it true.

    Evidence.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Things going well for Con, then? 😂
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.

    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    Hmmm, my bro’ has met him a few times and thinks he’s a weasel. Also has a less-than-helpful partner (Michael Fabricant).

    Andy Street made some poor decisions for JLP, including his vanity project store in Birmingham.

    And now he’s (probably) a loser.

    Sure you want him as leader?
    I don't share the personal criticism, but think it's wholly unrealistic that he'd be leader.

    Street is a seasoned Chief Executive, and he's brought that experience to do a solid job as West Midlands Mayor. He can afford to be somewhat independent in style, and work with a limited number of Council leaders etc. The qualities required to lead, manage and inspire a fractious party and difficult MPs in Westminster after a heavy election defeat are wholly different. He's also 60 which is not the first flush of youth (I know Starmer is older, but it's a two election job to get back).

    I think he could do a job as a credible frontbench spokesman, but that's it.
    The personal bit came from my bro’ who knows him a little (slightly more than just meeting him).

    Some of JLP’s problems actually stem from mistakes made by Andy Street e.g. over expanding number of stores at a time of economic retraction. The Birmingham store was a particular folly and bad mistake.

    Quite an error of judgement really for someone people are now lauding as their next tory saviour?

    https://www.itv.com/news/central/2020-07-09/john-lewis-in-birmingham-to-close-permanently
    They opened a store in Basingstoke for no tangible reason. When it opened I called that it wouldn't last. And it didn't. Bizarre.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    rcs1000 said:

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
    Doesn't it depend on if the full recount is a result of huge bundling error from the bundle check?
    And we dont know for sure how close it is. One assumes very for the RO to permit a full recount
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
    If they don't understand Londoners why did the Tory share go up slightly form 32.0% at the 2019 general election to 32.7% at this mayoral election?
    Fine. They understand Londonders 0.7% better than in 2021. Just another 400 years and they might win.
    The Tories in national elections don't need to win London anymore than Labour needs to win rural villages, the swing areas are the outer suburbs and market and commuter towns.

    Occasionally they can win the capital at Mayoral elections with a charismatic candidate like Boris who has cross party appeal as he did in 2008 and 2012 but that is it
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 4
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    It’s looking positive for Labour’s Richard Parker

    Recount won't 'materially change' Andy Street's numbers in West Midlands, Labour sources say
    Labour sources have suggested a recount in Coventry isn't going to "change materially" Tory incumbent Andy Street's numbers in the West Midlands mayoral race, Sky News political editor Beth Rigby says.
    A full recount has been ordered in the Coventry borough, with the race currently "too close to call".
    Beth, who is in Birmingham, says that while the result is on a "knife edge," there is hope in the Labour camp that Richard Parker could have edged the race.
    She says there will be a "massive upset" if Mr Street loses the mayoralty, with one former cabinet minister telling her it would be "devastating".
    Beth adds that there is chatter within the Conservative Party that if Mr Street does lose, he may be offered a parliamentary constituency, however, that remains "speculative".
    A short time ago, Labour sources told Sky News a recount was requested by Mr Street's team.


    3000 votes isn’t close in terms of errors, unless there’s been some sort of massive mistake like a missing pile. So I don’t think reflects very well on the Street team.

    How can they know what the result of the recount will be in advance of it?
    Well surely you normally only recount if it’s a few dozen out, on the grounds that there may be some mistakes?

    If it’s 3000 votes that’s not likely to alter the result by more than a hundred or so either way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    rcs1000 said:

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
    I can't think of one case. Maybe Hyufd would know more?

    If Gore had asked for a recount of all votes in Florida it might have been different.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    edited May 4
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
    If they don't understand Londoners why did the Tory share go up slightly form 32.0% at the 2019 general election to 32.7% at this mayoral election?
    Fine. They understand Londonders 0.7% better than in 2021. Just another 400 years and they might win.
    The Tories in national elections don't need to win London anymore than Labour needs to win rural villages, the swing areas are the outer suburbs and market and commuter towns.

    Occasionally they can win the capital at Mayoral elections with a charismatic candidate like Boris who has cross party appeal as he did in 2008 and 2012 but that is it
    Thanks for admitting that you don't care about the UK's best and brightest city and you hold your own voters with contempt. I knew it was the case but you've confirmed it. I shall not be voting Tory again until this kind of nonsense attitude is gone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    52 million views for this incendiary far right speech on the "Great Replacement" in Europe

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1784264775574188371

    This stuff is happening on the continent, and the ripples - waves - will hit the UK in time
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558

    rcs1000 said:

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
    Doesn't it depend on if the full recount is a result of huge bundling error from the bundle check?
    And we dont know for sure how close it is. One assumes very for the RO to permit a full recount
    The same recount conditions should be applied to all the areas in this election, not just one. The fact that Coventry might be the one where the votes are closest between the parties is irrelevant to that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited May 4
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    There is not the slightest evidence that Heath went cottaging as a young MP. That is scurrilous and pedalled by those who got sucked into the Operation Conifer debacle.

    He was a very shy man. That doesn’t mean he went out cottaging.

    What really annoys me about this is that Ted Heath is not alive to defend himself.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/ted-heath-stopped-cottaging-for-gay-sex-to-protect-his-career-says-tory-mp-7186167.html

    There is evidence, it certainly is much less of a problem for his reputation than the allegations Savile procured boys for him on his yacht which was proved to be false
    You should desist this. That isn’t evidence at all. It’s rumour mongering without any basis in evidence.

    Rather like the latest Susan Hall fiasco, just because someone whispers something, doesn’t make it true.

    Evidence.
    'But Brian Coleman, a senior Tory member of the London Assembly, has claimed the ex-Prime Minister had actively sought gay sex in public places.

    He said it was 'common knowledge' among Conservatives that Sir Edward had been given a stern warning by police when he underwent background checks for the post of Privy Councillor.'

    That is evidence and from a former London Assembly member, not just anybody, you may disagree with it, it may be wrong but you cannot say there is no evidence it may be true

    And if he did at a time homosexuality was still illegal and there few ways to meet a male partner otherwise, so what? Most couldn't care less about his sexuality now
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
    I can't think of one case. Maybe Hyufd would know more?

    If Gore had asked for a recount of all votes in Florida it might have been different.
    I don’t think we have hanging chads this time around ;)

  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    Street is probably too moderate to be Tory leader for a term or 2. He is competent and would make a good PM but if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election the Conservative membership will blame them for defeat and want a more red meat rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition
    I don't think there's been any evidence found that suggests that Heath had a physical relationship with anyone. If he did, he certainly wasn't (semi-)open about it in the way that Eden was!

  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    edited May 4
    Awful, awful speech from Hall. Please go away now.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    In Outer London, where people drive, Khan's vote didn't increase (except in the wealthy pro green SW), in inner London it did.

    His margin in inner London, where you can use a bus, taxi or tube and don't need the car, was enough to secure him victory in London overall
    Did he receive more votes than last time or not? It's a yes or no question.
    In inner London yes his margin was up, in Outer London there was no change and indeed in some areas like Bexley and Bromley Hall won comfortably
    Khan's vote went up in B&B compared to 2021.
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Heathener said:

    It’s looking positive for Labour’s Richard Parker

    Recount won't 'materially change' Andy Street's numbers in West Midlands, Labour sources say
    Labour sources have suggested a recount in Coventry isn't going to "change materially" Tory incumbent Andy Street's numbers in the West Midlands mayoral race, Sky News political editor Beth Rigby says.
    A full recount has been ordered in the Coventry borough, with the race currently "too close to call".
    Beth, who is in Birmingham, says that while the result is on a "knife edge," there is hope in the Labour camp that Richard Parker could have edged the race.
    She says there will be a "massive upset" if Mr Street loses the mayoralty, with one former cabinet minister telling her it would be "devastating".
    Beth adds that there is chatter within the Conservative Party that if Mr Street does lose, he may be offered a parliamentary constituency, however, that remains "speculative".
    A short time ago, Labour sources told Sky News a recount was requested by Mr Street's team.


    3000 votes isn’t close in terms of errors, unless there’s been some sort of massive mistake like a missing pile. So I don’t think reflects very well on the Street team.

    3000 votes is close in terms of such a large area. It is the equivalent of 150 votes in a single parliamentary constituency. Such a margin would be likely to generate a Full Recount. Were this partial recount to change the overall result, I suspect a Full Recount would have to be ordered across all boroughs there.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Am wonder, just who(m) made money by means of ramping the allegedly-close London mayoral vote?

    Do NOT mean any PBers!

    But surely someone was doing the ramping to make money? And also through a bucket of eggs at faces of journos & pundits who OUGHT to know better than to fall for it?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
    Doesn't it depend on if the full recount is a result of huge bundling error from the bundle check?
    And we dont know for sure how close it is. One assumes very for the RO to permit a full recount
    The same recount conditions should be applied to all the areas in this election, not just one. The fact that Coventry might be the one where the votes are closest between the parties is irrelevant to that.
    It won't be in all likelihood. There was a bundle check and now a full recount, suggests an error was found to me otherwise there is no reason. You get nothing for 'winning' an area
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    There is not the slightest evidence that Heath went cottaging as a young MP. That is scurrilous and pedalled by those who got sucked into the Operation Conifer debacle.

    He was a very shy man. That doesn’t mean he went out cottaging.

    What really annoys me about this is that Ted Heath is not alive to defend himself.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/ted-heath-stopped-cottaging-for-gay-sex-to-protect-his-career-says-tory-mp-7186167.html

    There is evidence, it certainly is much less of a problem for his reputation than the allegations Savile procured boys for him on his yacht which was proved to be false
    You should desist this. That isn’t evidence at all. It’s rumour mongering without any basis in evidence.

    Rather like the latest Susan Hall fiasco, just because someone whispers something, doesn’t make it true.

    Evidence.
    'But Brian Coleman, a senior Tory member of the London Assembly, has claimed the ex-Prime Minister had actively sought gay sex in public places.

    He said it was 'common knowledge' among Conservatives that Sir Edward had been given a stern warning by police when he underwent background checks for the for the post of Privy Councillor.'

    That is evidence and from a former London Assembly member, not just anybody, you may disagree with it, it may be wrong but you cannot say there is no evidence it may be true

    Thank god you don’t sit on the bench and please warn the world if you get called for jury service.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    rcs1000 said:

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
    They did in one ward in Oxford yesterday, according to Twitter. But that was by a matter of half a dozen votes, not 3000.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited May 4

    rcs1000 said:

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
    They did in one ward in Oxford yesterday, according to Twitter. But that was by a matter of half a dozen votes, not 3000.
    My Dad thinks it is within 1000, he is at the Coventry count

    Still too much to change though tbh
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 4
    AlsoLei said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    Street is probably too moderate to be Tory leader for a term or 2. He is competent and would make a good PM but if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election the Conservative membership will blame them for defeat and want a more red meat rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition
    I don't think there's been any evidence found that suggests that Heath had a physical relationship with anyone. If he did, he certainly wasn't (semi-)open about it in the way that Eden was!

    Correct.

    But apparently just because someone years later says he thinks it was, that’s evidence. Wtf?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843
    Only 0.6% swing to Lab in Havering und Redbridge.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Only 0.6% swing to Lab in Havering und Redbridge.

    Broken Sleazy Labour on the Slide!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    A rare example of recounts changing a result is Sittingbourne and Sheppey in 2005. Before the recount the Tories were 120 votes ahead; afterwards Labour were declared the winners by 79 votes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like the Tories can’t even play the expectation management game properly now….

    They said losing over 500 council seats would be the worst result for the Tories and avoided that
    So avoiding the worse result by a whisker means the expectations were well managed?

    Come on, most people will summarise it as losing 500, or about half their seats, it's not really possible to manage for that outcome anyway.
    It looks a worse result now than it did 24 hours ago. The later council results were poor for the Tories. Losing 473 seats may be the right side of the catastrophe benchmark of 500, but not by a lot. The LDs and Greens did exceptionally well, which wasn't much commented on yesterday, and the full extent of their success is only now being appreciated. Labour did OK, and for the moment ok is just fine for them.

    Now we have the Mayoral results and it turns out that the crumb of comfort they were feeding on is smaller than expected.

    It's bad, It's very bad. No spin can be put on it. November looms.

    Maybe he really will hang on until 2025. Can it really get any worse?
    Yes, because there are 100 000 or so people remortgaging every month.
    And decent numbers of Brexit crusties dying off each month, too.
    Brexit is becoming normalised, though.

    Even on here it's nothing like as heated as it used to be.
    That’s because it’s pretty much universally understood as a dismal failure.

    In any case, the wider point is that each month the demographics get worse for the Tories.
    The essence of democracy is that people change their mind. You come up with a great retail offer, and a plan, you explain it clearly, you get votes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Labour gain the West Central seat at Assembly
  • PJHPJH Posts: 645

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Khan's support actually increased, so how do we interpret that as anything but an endorsement for ULEZ?

    I've been saying this for months, the people opposed to ULEZ don't live in London. Londoners either don't care (as they don't drive) or they are supportive.

    The Tories were entirely wrong to oppose it (of course they forced Khan to bring it in but that's a different story). They have got completely the wrong end of the stick and done the opposite of what they should have done.

    Interesting. My bro' was very annoyed about it but has come round. Now thinks it’s necessary and that cleaning up our cities is the right thing to do.
    Some people were slightly annoyed for a few days and then the world didn't collapse and life carried on.

    It has been massively overstated as a problem. Just as "London hates Khan" has been.

    The Tories no longer understand London, or Londoners. They don't understand what they vote for, or why they vote. They tried to fix the electoral system and failed rather than choosing a decent candidate.

    If they'd have chosen Rory Stewart they'd have walked it.
    If they don't understand Londoners why did the Tory share go up slightly form 32.0% at the 2019 general election to 32.7% at this mayoral election?
    Fine. They understand Londonders 0.7% better than in 2021. Just another 400 years and they might win.
    The Tories in national elections don't need to win London anymore than Labour needs to win rural villages, the swing areas are the outer suburbs and market and commuter towns.

    Occasionally they can win the capital at Mayoral elections with a charismatic candidate like Boris who has cross party appeal as he did in 2008 and 2012 but that is it
    Thanks for admitting that you don't care about the UK's best and brightest city and you hold your own voters with contempt. I knew it was the case but you've confirmed it. I shall not be voting Tory again until this kind of nonsense attitude is gone.
    Yes. It's very redolent of the 'we know what's best for the little people' attitude of certain sections of privileged society and the Conservatives need to get rid of them all and find some new leaders with real world experience. I suspect they aren't in Parliament yet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Banal sex?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 4
    I’ve done quite a bit of work on Ted Heath and there isn’t a scrap of evidence to pin on him.

    I suspect he was probably a-sexual, very shy.

    Whilst his and my politics might diverge I hate the way someone can be so casually traduced like this by people who never met him or knew him.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited May 4
    If Street has lost, the Conservative should get him into Westminster in a safe seat (if there is still such a thing for Con) ASAP.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149

    Awful, awful speech from Hall. Please go away now.

    Indeed. It isn't at all difficult to give a short, magnanimous concession speech. It's the right thing to do, and doing otherwise makes you look dreadful.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 4
    Andy_JS said:

    A rare example of recounts changing a result is Sittingbourne and Sheppey in 2005. Before the recount the Tories were 120 votes ahead; afterwards Labour were declared the winners by 79 votes.

    Bob Marshall Andrews and his 'I'm Lazarus' moment wasn't it?

    Edit - oops no, he was Medway
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    GIN1138 said:

    If Street has lost, the Conservative should get him into Westminster in a safe seat (if there is such a thing for Con) ASAP.

    Solihull would be the one.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,091

    A question for our polling experts. Everyone was rightly saying that if Khan lost it would be the biggest failure of polling practically ever. He won but with an 11% margin rather than the 20% margins that were being predicted.

    Is this still a big polling error? 9% out seems big to me but not sure if that is just my perception.

    Yes it is. For general elections the maximum mean absolute error acceptable before we declare a polling error is (around) 3%. Now a single error is an absolute error not a mean absolute error, so you'd have to look at the other parties as well. But facially 9% is too big. Which makes me think something is wrong with YouGovs panel, turnout model, or both.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Awful, awful speech from Hall. Please go away now.

    Indeed. It isn't at all difficult to give a short, magnanimous concession speech. It's the right thing to do, and doing otherwise makes you look dreadful.
    I only caught a bit of the speech and it was her giving a campaign pitch about knife crime. You're at the count Sue, you've already lost. You're not going to win more votes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    If you are explaining you are losing.
    It seems quite a niche interest, but it's quite touching to think there's someone for everyone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    edited May 4
    AlsoLei said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Silver lining for Tories.


    If Street loses, he’s free to stand for Westminster and leader after the election.

    I'd be in favour, just for the punning opportunities.
    The Tories' first openly gay leader (not forgetting Eden was (a) bisexual and (b) it wasn't widely known to the public)?

    Just imagining explaining that he's shagging Fabricant would surely be enough to put people off.
    Heath was likely gay but closeted (rumour was he went cottaging as a young MP but whips warned him to shut off his sexuality).

    Street is probably too moderate to be Tory leader for a term or 2. He is competent and would make a good PM but if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election the Conservative membership will blame them for defeat and want a more red meat rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition
    I don't think there's been any evidence found that suggests that Heath had a physical relationship with anyone. If he did, he certainly wasn't (semi-)open about it in the way that Eden was!

    On the other hand, I remember when my ex-father-in-law - quite the nutter - used to rant on and on, saying "there's a secretive private island in the Caribbean, and famous actors and US presidents and even British royals are flown there to have sex with underage girls who've been trafficked by billionaires just for that"

    I used to laugh inwardly, sometimes even outwardly. Now I know it was all TRUE
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The full recount in Coventry (and perhaps others will follow?) makes the WM a bit less of a sure thing than the Betfair odds of 1.05 for Labour suggest. Probably worth laying a few quid.

    Really?

    How often do recounts change results?
    I can't think of one case. Maybe Hyufd would know more?

    If Gore had asked for a recount of all votes in Florida it might have been different.
    Al Gore was advised to do just that. My source for this, is national recount consultant who gave this sound advice.

    Instead, AG and his no-brains trust decided to request a cherry-picking partial hand recount . . . putting the final nail into his political coffin . . . which SCOTUS hammered in for him, as was totally predictable.
This discussion has been closed.