The selected auditor for Trump Media, which is the one with the reverse takeover headed for a pump and dump, has been punished heavily by the regulator with a permanent suspension plus $14m of civil penalties.
It's called BG Borgias, and has rapidly developed a large client base amongst listed companies.
That is a result of intense micro-media attention to Trump & his dealings. Apparently missed by MSM, with a bit of followup coverage in the FT.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.
Boring? Best election night. Ever. Edgbaston. Stephen Twigg. Portillo. D:ream. A new day has dawned, has it not. What a time to be alive.
Castle Point going Labour was the icing for me! First time I’d voted Labour in a GE since 1964.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.
Boring? Best election night. Ever. Edgbaston. Stephen Twigg. Portillo. D:ream. A new day has dawned, has it not. What a time to be alive.
But we knew that was going to happen as soon as the exit poll was out. One might enjoy the journey, but the destination was known.
So I essayed a bit of gardening - planting out hostas, geums and brunneras. I am not exactly sylph-like though I have been slowly losing weight. Anyway, as I dug and planted and weeded, I found my trousers slowly falling down until - well, how can I put this - I was gardening in my pants which seemed to be making the same attempt to force me to become a Naked Gardener. Then I fell over into the honey bush - euphorbia mellifera, for any filthy minds out there.
Nice as it is to find one's clothes a bit too big for you, this was not the time to discover this. And so I had to retreat into the house - muddy and au naturel - before I scandalised the local birds, sheep and passing dog-walkers.
A picture of the euphorbia below - it has a magnificent smell of honey and the orange bracts set against the zingy green leaves make it look like an abstract painting. It is a thug, mind, and does need cutting back so falling into it and the enforced pruning that followed was probably necessary. Even if I reached that conclusion in a somewhat unconventional manner.
Lol, that's total knife edge, Street might be in trouble
Except that Labour's Gaza problem wouldn't manifest itself very much in Solihull.
Labour's running-a-shit-show in Birmingham is more of a problem.
My back of the envelope calculation is that Labour will carry Birmingham by 25-30k, and that is probably not enough.
The Tory lead in Solihull was 23,500.
In 2021, the Tory lead in Solihull was 32,400. So the Tory lead in Solihull fell by 8,900 compared to 2021.
Over the whole West Midlands, in 2021 Street won by 47,000.
So even though Solihull accounts for only 9.4% of the total votes cast in 2024, the Tories have already lost about 19% of their winning 2021 margin of 47,000.
At face value, even allowing for a poor result for Labour in Birmingham, my reaction is that that looks bad for Street.
Put another way, even if Labour only maintained its 2021 margin of 17,500 over the Conservatives in Birmingham, Labour only has to improve the margin by 7,800 in each of Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley, Sandwell and Coventry to get over the winning line. And the number of votes cast in 2024 in each of those five boroughs averaged about one-third more than the number cast in Solihull.
Wolverhampton: Parker ahead of Street by 7,900. In 2021 Labour were 2,800 behind. So that's another 10,700 off Street's 2021 majority.
The results from Wolverhampton and Solihull alone mean that Street's 2021 majority of 47,000 has already been reduced by 19,600 or 42%, and those two boroughs account for only 19% of the votes cast.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
The Boat Party of the Damned was 2010 GE. IIRC, Vine’s awful cowboy skit was for the local elections, maybe even the year before?
But yes, both events were symptomatic of a sharp decline in the quality of BBC election night coverage. They have recovered a bit since, to be fair, though hardly spectacularly.
Did a YouTube search. The cowboy thing, with Vine performing a shoot-out in a saloon, was the 2008 local elections. I was thinking it was a GE but thankfully not. Who knows what graphics and AI will be conjured this time. The Elizabeth Tower swingometer stuff was good in 2015.
So I essayed a bit of gardening - planting out hostas, geums and brunneras. I am not exactly sylph-like though I have been slowly losing weight. Anyway, as I dug and planted and weeded, I found my trousers slowly falling down until - well, how can I put this - I was gardening in my pants which seemed to be making the same attempt to force me to become a Naked Gardener. Then I fell over into the honey bush - euphorbia mellifera, for any filthy minds out there.
Nice as it is to find one's clothes a bit too big for you, this was not the time to discover this. And so I had to retreat into the house - muddy and au naturel - before I scandalised the local birds, sheep and passing dog-walkers.
A picture of the euphorbia below - it has a magnificent smell of honey and the orange bracts set against the zingy green leaves make it look like an abstract painting. It is a thug, mind, and does need cutting back so falling into it and the enforced pruning that followed was probably necessary. Even if I reached that conclusion in a somewhat unconventional manner.
At least it wasn't a mother-in-law's pincushion cactus .
This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly". I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
I like the really close finishes in multi-member wards where one candidate for a particular party doesn't want a recount because they are just in, and the other very much does!
I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
Both apply but in 1997 there was more enthusiasm for Blair and Labour than I detect for Starmer and Labour but hatred of Sunak, Truss etc is far, far greater than I remember it being for Major.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.
I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
100/1 for next con leader looks generous to me, in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Patel/Badenoch/Braverman’s all knock each other out and the sane wing of the Tory party prevails.
Andy Street is 100/1 (as you say) with William Hill. It might be a trading hedge if he loses today, which is starting to look likely but it is hard to see him going straight from Mayor to party leader.
I can confirm that Mr Vine seems to be more interested in our former PCC's 5 speeding tickets, than in his Election Night 2008 Rootin' Tootin' Shootin' performance.
He has retweeted the former, bit not the latter (so far),
This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly". I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
"Moreover, although most people expect a clear Blair victory, there is little evidence of positive enthusiasm for Labour, or of high expectations of what the party would do in office."
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centrists
This time yesterday, people thought Street had won easily and London would be down to the wire. Now Khan has won easily and W Mids is down to the wire.
This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly". I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
Susan Hall gets 32.6% of the vote on current votes in. So that beats the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 on first preferences and the 29% he got in 2004. So she avoids the worst performance by a Conservative candidate in a London Mayoral election albeit still a clear Khan win
This time yesterday, people thought Street had won easily and London would be down to the wire. Now Khan has won easily and W Mids is down to the wire.
Once a party concedes defeat (which West Mids Labour seemed to do), one believes them.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
The Boat Party of the Damned was 2010 GE. IIRC, Vine’s awful cowboy skit was for the local elections, maybe even the year before?
But yes, both events were symptomatic of a sharp decline in the quality of BBC election night coverage. They have recovered a bit since, to be fair, though hardly spectacularly.
I know Jeremy Vine. He's got quite a sense of humour. The cowboy skit was hilarious. Totally unselfconscious!
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centrists
At the risk of getting into a silly argument with you, your example simply illustrates OKC's point that winning sides don't ask for recounts.
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centrists
At the risk of getting into a silly argument with you, your example simply illustrates OKC's point that winning sides don't ask for recounts.
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.
Yes I was being sarcastic. Are you really too stupid to realise this?
Why have I had a depressing day? What are you going on about?
I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
Both apply but in 1997 there was more enthusiasm for Blair and Labour than I detect for Starmer and Labour but hatred of Sunak, Truss etc is far, far greater than I remember it being for Major.
I wonder if the change in electoral system has actually bitten the Tories on the arse in the West Midlands? Probably not, as Labour did pick up more second choices than Street in 2021 - but it was reasonably close, you'd assume RefUK would predominantly have gone for Street, and he's burnished his "not like other Tories" image with HS2 so may well have done better on second choices than last time. We'll never know.
This time yesterday, people thought Street had won easily and London would be down to the wire. Now Khan has won easily and W Mids is down to the wire.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centrists
At the risk of getting into a silly argument with you, your example simply illustrates OKC's point that winning sides don't ask for recounts.
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.
Yes I was being sarcastic. Are you really too stupid to realise this?
Why have I had a depressing day? What are you going on about?
Lol: "I made a dumb comment; I'll pretend I was being sarcastic."
This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly". I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
Candidates are waiting to hear whether there’s going to be a full recount of votes, or bundle checks to verify the numbers. Either way, there’s a tense wait ahead.
This is the new Green Party councillor for Gipton & Harehills, celebrating by waving the Palestinian flag and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which I presume means "please recycle responsibly". I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
maybe he misunderstood the green colour bit of Green?
When did the SWP take over the Greens?
As it happens ...
There was a significant influx after the Comrade Delta rape scandal in the SWP around 2010, where the SWP leadership wanted a rape allegation against a member of the senior leadership to be dealt with via the structures of the SWP, not a report to the police.
It was huge on the left / far left at the time.
But the Greens have long had virulently anti-Israel, sometimes (intentionally or unintentionally) stepping over into anti-Jewish looking, rhetoric (phrasing it for the the benefit of OGHM) from some elements.
Street would have won had he stood as an Independent.
IKWYM, but he did need the "vote for a donkey with a blue rosette" vote as well, which he'd have lost as an indy. He'd have needed the Conservative candidate to accidentally mess up their nomination form or something.
Rory the ex Tory pointed out that FPTP makes it much harder for independents to break through.
I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
Both apply but in 1997 there was more enthusiasm for Blair and Labour than I detect for Starmer and Labour but hatred of Sunak, Truss etc is far, far greater than I remember it being for Major.
The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centrists
One of my favourite recount moments was when I was Liberal agent in Feb 74 and was called, with the candidates and the other agents to a meeting with the Returning Officer. If, he said, we need a recount I’m going to lock the hall and we’ll all come back the next morning. As we’d just saved our deposit in 1966 and lost it in 1970 I asked what would happen if we were just shy of saving our deposit. The RO looked at me in astonishment and admitted he’d never thought of that happening. In the event the result was clear and we were well above the lost deposit level.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 38m One other thing to remember. The Tories didn't just build Susan Hall's campaign around a failed core vote strategy. Rishi Sunak tore up his own strategy after Uxbridge and tried to build a national campaign on the same basis.
To me, that was the turning point. Sunak’s Premiership was quite sane till that point. Winning an Uxbridge election, a blip on a bad night that won all the headlines despite all record swings against them same time, led to the Sunak credibility slide.
Susan Hall gets 32.6% of the vote on current votes in. So that beats the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 on first preferences and the 29% he got in 2004. So she avoids the worst performance by a Conservative candidate in a London Mayoral election albeit still a clear Khan win
There's very little justice in politics. I know from people who worked with him that Steve Norris was a pleasant chap and very capable politician. Yet he was beaten in the mayoral race by an evil hard-Left anti-Semite and didn't do as well as a raving swivel-eyed Trumpian.
The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
If they picked someone like Rory he could have won. But Rory is no longer welcome in the Tory party. Its not as simple as geographic movements, the Tory party has also moved far away from where it was just a decade ago, and aligned itself with some quite anti-London viewpoints as well.
The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
The Tories can win London with the right candidate and the right national circumstances, I think. The problem is that they keep nominating poor candidates.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
Don’t be silly; Remainers said that Leave should welcome a second referendum in 2017-19 if they were confident of winning again! Who cares if the upside.was zero because they’d already won?
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Yebbut Leave sensibly didn't ask for a recount, which supports OKC's point.
I was just recounting the logic of the sensible centrists
At the risk of getting into a silly argument with you, your example simply illustrates OKC's point that winning sides don't ask for recounts.
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.
Yes I was being sarcastic. Are you really too stupid to realise this?
Why have I had a depressing day? What are you going on about?
Lol: "I made a dumb comment; I'll pretend I was being sarcastic."
You can’t be this thick. Are you really prepared to look this stupid rather than concede you misread something?
The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
I think it's more young professionals have moved to Labour.
There's a bit more to this here: Labour used to be strongly for WWC voters, and class-focussed, whereas now they are for public sector workers, private renters, identity based views and more "internationalist" vibes.
That's slap-bang where so many of them are. Labour would have to start directly hitting their financial interests for them to move back Tory, I think.
So it looks like the Tories can’t even play the expectation management game properly now….
If Street does lose Sunak celebrating the Tees Vally mayor victory despite a 16%+ swing against the Conservatives and with a candidate that distanced himself from the party as far as could comes across as desperate stuff, he would have been better keeping schtumm.
So it looks like the Tories can’t even play the expectation management game properly now….
Well, Sunak has played it well in a way. The papers were full of stories today about the backbench rebels calling off the dogs based on Tees Valley, the expectation of West Mids, and the hope of London. They may backtrack now, but the momentum may have gone a bit.
Candidates are waiting to hear whether there’s going to be a full recount of votes, or bundle checks to verify the numbers. Either way, there’s a tense wait ahead.
Guardian
It's probably not possible, since you get the recount before any declaration, but it would be interesting to see how often it has changed a result. Probably not often, as counting is accurate and most races are not close enough to be affected by a few bundles.
This time yesterday, people thought Street had won easily and London would be down to the wire. Now Khan has won easily and W Mids is down to the wire.
Great expectation management from Team Sunak.
I get he's a poor politician, but this is really basic stuff and he must have some advisers - so what's going on?
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.
No, it was locals. The interest was in the fact that it would be close(ish) to the next election.
The gibberish childishness of it reminded me of 4am programming on some cable channels - random weird shite made up by the Z team.
Man, that Soros is a busy guy, is there anything he doesn't fund?
Your occasional reminder that Soros is 93!
You poor, deluded fool. He's occupied the current Soros host body for 93 years, but the Deep State won't tell you how long these shapeshifting lizards have been on our planet in total.
Susan Hall gets 32.6% of the vote on current votes in. So that beats the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 on first preferences and the 29% he got in 2004. So she avoids the worst performance by a Conservative candidate in a London Mayoral election albeit still a clear Khan win
There's very little justice in politics.
In a fair system it's like umpiring in cricket - you get unlucky, but overall it evens out to most people getting justice.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.
Boring? Best election night. Ever. Edgbaston. Stephen Twigg. Portillo. D:ream. A new day has dawned, has it not. What a time to be alive.
But we knew that was going to happen as soon as the exit poll was out. One might enjoy the journey, but the destination was known.
True, but Titanic is a great movie even if we know what happens to the ship.
The problem for the Tories in London is that their voters are constantly moving out of the capital to places like Essex and Kent. The process has been going on for decades.
That famous Labour mayor Boris Johnson agrees.
I think we can all agree that Boris Johnson is sui generis.
Susan Hall gets 32.6% of the vote on current votes in. So that beats the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 on first preferences and the 29% he got in 2004. So she avoids the worst performance by a Conservative candidate in a London Mayoral election albeit still a clear Khan win
There's very little justice in politics. I know from people who worked with him that Steve Norris was a pleasant chap and very capable politician. Yet he was beaten in the mayoral race by an evil hard-Left anti-Semite and didn't do as well as a raving swivel-eyed Trumpian.
Former Epping Forest MP before Dame Eleanor of course and Transport Minister and lover of ladies
A question for our polling experts. Everyone was rightly saying that if Khan lost it would be the biggest failure of polling practically ever. He won but with an 11% margin rather than the 20% margins that were being predicted.
Is this still a big polling error? 9% out seems big to me but not sure if that is just my perception.
Comments
If they don't apply to mayoral votes, then perhaps Birmingham has delivered for Labour?
What was the Birmingham swing in the PCC election?
Street is toast imo
The selected auditor for Trump Media, which is the one with the reverse takeover headed for a pump and dump, has been punished heavily by the regulator with a permanent suspension plus $14m of civil penalties.
It's called BG Borgias, and has rapidly developed a large client base amongst listed companies.
That is a result of intense micro-media attention to Trump & his dealings. Apparently missed by MSM, with a bit of followup coverage in the FT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGkjsruWVvw
As I typed he fell to 2.5
Good times on BF
Hall 82,859
Khan 50,780
Almost no swing again.
Tory 82859
Labour 50780
Green 7859
Reform 7554
Lib Dem 6417
2021 Results:
Tory 82361
Labour 49818
I just don't have enough information.
Nice as it is to find one's clothes a bit too big for you, this was not the time to discover this. And so I had to retreat into the house - muddy and au naturel - before I scandalised the local birds, sheep and passing dog-walkers.
A picture of the euphorbia below - it has a magnificent smell of honey and the orange bracts set against the zingy green leaves make it look like an abstract painting. It is a thug, mind, and does need cutting back so falling into it and the enforced pruning that followed was probably necessary. Even if I reached that conclusion in a somewhat unconventional manner.
The results from Wolverhampton and Solihull alone mean that Street's 2021 majority of 47,000 has already been reduced by 19,600 or 42%, and those two boroughs account for only 19% of the votes cast.
That truly was the age of partisanship ruling people’s heads. They really thought they meant it
Khan 106,861
Hall 26,347
Labour 106861
Tory 26347
Green 12446
Lib Dem 11463
Reform 3990
2021 Results:
Labour 93437
Tory 36471
I wonder which carbon he wants to reduce first?
https://x.com/leokearse/status/1786742972123402626?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The same firm has Aaron Bell 200/1.
Now, Khan is nailed on and Street is in with a shout.
I think the sangfroid in the Tory Party over the results as a whole will be severely tested by Monday.
He has retweeted the former, bit not the latter (so far),
"Moreover, although most people expect a clear Blair victory, there is little evidence of positive enthusiasm for Labour, or of high expectations of what the party would do in office."
Not 2024, 1997.
And wtf was all that "it's close" about yesterday on London Mayor? I got semi worried!
Khan 1,088,225 43.8%
Hall 811,518 32.7%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7JX8D1Kb88
Still, well done on bring up Brexit once again, it must brighten up your otherwise depressing day.
Why have I had a depressing day? What are you going on about?
Guardian
There was a significant influx after the Comrade Delta rape scandal in the SWP around 2010, where the SWP leadership wanted a rape allegation against a member of the senior leadership to be dealt with via the structures of the SWP, not a report to the police.
It was huge on the left / far left at the time.
But the Greens have long had virulently anti-Israel, sometimes (intentionally or unintentionally) stepping over into anti-Jewish looking, rhetoric (phrasing it for the the benefit of OGHM) from some elements.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Smith_(activist)
Rory the ex Tory pointed out that FPTP makes it much harder for independents to break through.
Has @MoonRabbit called it?
In the event the result was clear and we were well above the lost deposit level.
... It was mischief-making bollocks, wasn't it?
Khan 43.8%
Hall 32.7%
There's a bit more to this here: Labour used to be strongly for WWC voters, and class-focussed, whereas now they are for public sector workers, private renters, identity based views and more "internationalist" vibes.
That's slap-bang where so many of them are. Labour would have to start directly hitting their financial interests for them to move back Tory, I think.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election#Results_2
The gibberish childishness of it reminded me of 4am programming on some cable channels - random weird shite made up by the Z team.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-mayoral-election-assembly-results-winners-sadiq-khan-susan-hall-b1155577.html
The headline results I got from the BBC site
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/england/mayors/E12000007
And the longer he waits, the worse it gets.
Is this still a big polling error? 9% out seems big to me but not sure if that is just my perception.