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How Betfair has been reacting over the last few days – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 12 in General
imageHow Betfair has been reacting over the last few days – politicalbetting.com

At no point has Susan Hall been the favourite or close to becoming the favourite but it has been a bit frantic for some. Hopefully those who backed Susan Hall at long odds have been able to trade out for a profit.

Read the full story here

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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436
    edited May 4
    Turnout for the West Midlands Mayor election was 29.81%

    Not great is it?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935
    I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!

    Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,253

    I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!

    Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens

    This would mean a lot of people sitting on the Government benches! 👍
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,955
    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,820
    West Central results coming up
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226

    Yes, I did. As it happens I laid and backed her at precisely the right times.

    However, I thought it would be much closer than it was and the polls would be out again.

    I was wrong.

    The reason why I don't bet online is because the discipline imposed by having to phone up a taxi, wait for it to arrive, then travel to betting shop to bet forces me to bet sensibly rather than spasmodically.

    My aborted trip to put £10 on Hall to win LM is the second time logistics prevented me from making an impulse bet, with the first being Mme. LePen coming first in the first round in POTFR2022. Both were arguably a good bet at the time, but the imposed pause showed them not to be.

    In short, well done you. I would have gotten it wrong.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    edited May 4
    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    Somebody said to me on Whatsapp reading too much into voter turnout figures and assorted hunches is a bit like treating a Scottish subsample like a proper Scottish poll.
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,820
    edited May 4
    West Central Results:

    Labour 54481
    Tory 43405
    Lib Dem 7663
    Green 5984
    Reform 3478
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    One thing I did not know about London Elections was the "super constituencies".

    Example from LDV:
    Results will be announced this afternoon in this order: Mayor of London, London Assembly constituency members, London-wide Assembly members (from the top up lists). We already know that turnout was 40.5%. Previous turnouts have varied from 34% to 46%, so there is nothing particularly surprising in that figure.

    Lib Dem interest is focussed on the SW London Constituency (Richmond, Kingston and Hounslow) which we are hoping to win. If we do then it will be the first ever constituency win for us.


    Clearly I have a bit of reading to do.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    Somebody said to me on Whatsapp reading too much into voter turnout figures and assorted hunches is a bit like treating a Scottish subsample like a proper Scottish poll.
    You're in touch with Stuart Dickson on WhatsApp?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    CatMan said:

    West Central Results:

    Labour 54481
    Tory 43405
    Lib Dem 7663
    Green 5984
    Reform 3478

    Voted Bailey last time round
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    CatMan said:

    West Central Results:

    Labour 54481
    Tory 43405
    Lib Dem 7663
    Green 5984
    Reform 3478

    Bailey bean Khan in 2021 here.

    Perhaps like I said many months ago, ULEZ is not a problem for voters that actually live in London.
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,820
    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436
    edited May 4
    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    viewcode said:

    Yes, I did. As it happens I laid and backed her at precisely the right times.

    However, I thought it would be much closer than it was and the polls would be out again.

    I was wrong.

    The reason why I don't bet online is because the discipline imposed by having to phone up a taxi, wait for it to arrive, then travel to betting shop to bet forces me to bet sensibly rather than spasmodically.

    My aborted trip to put £10 on Hall to win LM is the second time logistics prevented me from making an impulse bet, with the first being Mme. LePen coming first in the first round in POTFR2022. Both were arguably a good bet at the time, but the imposed pause showed them not to be.

    In short, well done you. I would have gotten it wrong.
    Thank you, and I did get it wrong, I thought Khan would drop sub 40%

    I am still up on all my bets, but not nearly by the £400 I thought this morning.

    Darn.
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    edited May 4
    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    I am pretty certain that is what happens. So easy to make money by setting a rumour running
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    West Central has I believe, never voted Labour before. The Tories are doomed in London.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    West Central has I believe, never voted Labour before. The Tories are doomed in London.

    It’s been trending Labour, for a generation.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280
    YES WE KHAN!!!

    Worth looking back at the utter partisan drivel masquerading as analysis on here the last 48 hours. Embarrassing.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,645
    FPT

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.

    Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.

    Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.

    The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.

    Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"

    He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.



    His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.

    Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
    Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.

    The right strategy with the right result.
    Leaving aside the more important point that Labour's position here should be primarily based on what is morally and ethically right, it is bizarre that any Labour supporter still thinks that Starmer has been pursuing the "right strategy" on Gaza in terms of party political considerations. For someone who for the first couple of years had been pretty sure footed politically, Starmer's positioning has been surprisingly politically inept. Labour has undoubtably lost the trust and votes of a large swathe of Muslim voters, as well as having given a reason to others on the left to finally break with voting Labour and there is no way that that has been counterbalanced by any significant extra votes gained from elsewhere. That may not matter in a 2024 general election, but it could be decisive in at 2029 general election.

    I have found it hard to find anyone in the Labour Party who thinks that Starmer has taken the right course, and that includes many elected representatives. It is not anything but an opinion confined to the remnants of the Corbyn far left, the opinion "we would have been better voting for Nandy not Starmer" is becoming widespread.

    What is ironic is that Labour has spent the past 7 months rowing back on Starmer's original position, such that the position taken now would not have caused the same reaction had it been taken initially, but that rowing back has never been quite enough to offset the damage done. To give an example: while the Lib Dems are now calling for a halt to arms exports to Israel, Lammy contented himself with calling for the government's legal evidence to be published in the full knowledge that that would not happen. Why couldn't Labour just say that it's own legal advice was that Israel had been committing war crimes, and that it would therefore support an arms embargo unless the government published evidence to the contrary?

    I just hope that when the combined share of the Independent (Yakoob) and Green vote is added together in the West Midlands mayoral election, the penny finally drops. Perhaps it already has, but unless Labour takes a harder stance towards Israel now the damage will persist:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68956784
    Thank you for taking the time to write such a detailed response.

    I wil, respectfully disagree.

    Taking a position to placate voters with Hamas sympathies is what would have been morally reprehensible.

    Taking a position that we know will lose us votes in Muslim areas and amongst the SWP-lite end of Labour has been done for a variety of reasons. Yea, some tactical, but predominantly moral.

    At least, that's what I think.
    I could respectfully disagree with you too but I object strongly to you crassly characterising anyone who strongly objects to the conduct of the appalling Israeli government and its armed forced as having supposed "Hamas sympathies", including of course myself. "SWP-lite" is also an insult to me by the way, I am anything but.

    I also made it clear at the start of my reply to you that Labour's position should be "primarily based on what is morally and ethically right" and that is why I am so appalled with Starmer. It was you that sought to justify Starmer's actions in political terms (".... But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters"). Only in order to debunk those claims of yours did I point out the actual political consequences in my reply.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226

    viewcode said:

    Yes, I did. As it happens I laid and backed her at precisely the right times.

    However, I thought it would be much closer than it was and the polls would be out again.

    I was wrong.

    The reason why I don't bet online is because the discipline imposed by having to phone up a taxi, wait for it to arrive, then travel to betting shop to bet forces me to bet sensibly rather than spasmodically.

    My aborted trip to put £10 on Hall to win LM is the second time logistics prevented me from making an impulse bet, with the first being Mme. LePen coming first in the first round in POTFR2022. Both were arguably a good bet at the time, but the imposed pause showed them not to be.

    In short, well done you. I would have gotten it wrong.
    Thank you, and I did get it wrong, I thought Khan would drop sub 40%

    I am still up on all my bets, but not nearly by the £400 I thought this morning.

    Darn.
    Never feel guilty about taking a small profit. There are many that will be nursing large loss.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    Lots of blank spoiled ballots. Was there an organised abstention in person or were people just confused by three different ballot papers?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    edited May 4

    YES WE KHAN!!!

    Worth looking back at the utter partisan drivel masquerading as analysis on here the last 48 hours. Embarrassing.

    TBF most of us on the right were perfectly serene and we kept saying "oh calm down, Khan is going to win"

    The people cacking themselves were the lefty likes of @SouthamObserver et al, going into a nervous breakdown and claming Hall had got it
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    Never attribute to malice, that which night be otherwise explained by incompetence.
    Much too long for Rishi to fit on his lectern.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 823

    West Central has I believe, never voted Labour before. The Tories are doomed in London.

    It's been trending that way for the past couple of elections at least - I think it was inevitable that it would fall into line with the rest of inner London sooner rather than later.
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Nice to see Khan doing so well. He's a good guy who's done some politically brave stuff and lives with constant threats to his life from both Islamists and the Far Right. He's not flash or showy but gets on with the job. I expect some of the outer borough results will be less good but he is certainly well liked round my way in SE14.

    I think you can disagree passionately with Khan on ULEZ but he took a decision and has stuck to it. For me that is something that is commendable in any politician.

    For example, I commend Nigel Farage on sticking with Brexit for so long despite my vocal opposition to it. That is commendable in anyone.

    Doing in what you believe.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382
    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    It's a bit of spin that suits both Tory and Labour leaderships really. Sunak got some headlines this morning about rebels calling off their dogs based on some bright spots in the gloom - the win in Tees Valley, a good chance in West Midlands, and rumours of a huge shock in London. For Labour, London probably won't be as good as the polls, but they'll get positive headlines on what looks (contrary to last night's rumours) to be a healthy win.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    edited May 4
    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
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    SkiddertonSkidderton Posts: 2
    Client journalism alive and well. Spurious rumours about Hall winning doing enough to give Sunak cover while other results were going as bad as expected.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079
    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    Campaigns have to be optimistic. It’s hard to run a campaign that is entirely realistic: you’d just all give up and go home! Both this and last time, we’ve seen the Tory mayoral campaigns thinking they’ve done better than they have. Maybe that is just campaign optimism. People get excited and misinterpret the data before them.

    That said, I also wonder whether Trumpism has infected Hall’s campaign. By that, I mean Trump just always says he’s won because reality doesn’t matter to Trump, and losing is for losers. The Hall campaign had already felt disconnected from reality, and this is just more of that.

    I think those are more likely explanations than a deliberate attempt to distract people from Tory losses elsewhere, as others have suggested.

    The next question is why anyone believed these Con staffers. Is that about hope (they really want Hall to win)? Is that about pessimism (they really want Hall to lose, but are consumed by worry)? Is that because we’re attracted to the more interesting story (Khan winning is boring and everyone loves a surprise result)? Do people like to think of themselves as going against the herd and spotting a great bet?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,016

    I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!

    Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens

    I checked the date. No it's not 1st April!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,885
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    Never attribute to malice, that which night be otherwise explained by incompetence.
    I think a somewhat competent spin operation to get through a difficult Friday. The rebels probably won't rebel now even when Khan does actually win.
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    Khan and Labour played the expectations management like a fiddle. It's worked to get Lib Dem and Green voters voting for Khan.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218
    The swing so far is about 5% so even if that continues the final result won't be a 22% margin like YouGov was saying.
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,971
    edited May 4
    In the least exciting election since the Russian one, Oliver Coppard was re-elected in South Yorkshire.

    Turnout in Doncaster was 21%, partially because there were no council elections and partially because the whole mayor thing is seen as a Sheffield cabal.

    Overall turnout was 27% thanks to a 33% turnout in Sheffield.

    
    Labour, Oliver Coppard                        50.9%
    Conservative, Nick Allen                      16.5%
    Green, Douglas Johnson                        13.6%
    Liberal Democrat, Hannah Kitching             11.4%
    Social Democratic Party, David Bettney         7.6%
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382

    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.

    A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.

    I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    It's a bit of spin that suits both Tory and Labour leaderships really. Sunak got some headlines this morning about rebels calling off their dogs based on some bright spots in the gloom - the win in Tees Valley, a good chance in West Midlands, and rumours of a huge shock in London. For Labour, London probably won't be as good as the polls, but they'll get positive headlines on what looks (contrary to last night's rumours) to be a healthy win.
    Yes, I think that’s a good call. Whatever happens with Andy Street, it’s probably now countered by a clear win for Khan so we end up 'as you were' gearing up for the General Election. Labour did fairly well. LibDems too. The Conservatives did badly but probably not enough for them to go through the agony of another leadership shuffle.

    There’s nothing really about these locals and mayoralities that is out of kilter with the national opinion polls.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,807
    BBC:

    "A suspected illegal XL Bully breeding farm has been raided by police in Sheffield.

    A total of 22 animals were seized from an allotment, including mothers and pups, in what officers described as "appalling conditions".

    A South Yorkshire Police spokesperson said six of the animals were so unwell they were put to sleep."

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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
    I’d say fewer here were taken in than among the journalists, which says something about the credulity of journalists I suppose.

    Personally I was pretty convinced the result would be tighter than the polls, though Susan winning seemed unlikely. In the end it looks as if if won’t even be tighter than the polls.
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,340
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    I am pretty certain that is what happens. So easy to make money by setting a rumour running
    I'm sure that goes on, and there are examples I know of in sports betting but:

    Stephen Bush is apparently an associate editor at the Financial Times. Adam Bienkov also a legit journalist. Just to take the tweeters from the last header.

    Maybe Bienkov was duped by his "source close to Khan", but isn't it Stephen Bush's own analysis?

    I'm not saying journalists are beyond suspicion, but it does seem a bit unlikely for a successful journo to get involved in such a scheme. Can't have been much liquidity to play with anyway?

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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    edited May 4

    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.

    A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.

    I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?
    It isn't particularly good as Khan isn't particularly good either. I rate him as better than Johnson, worse than Livingstone by a country mile. I describe him as "meh" and "ineffective" but not actively terrible in the way Johnson or Hall are.

    The rumours were nonsense, I was always confident he'd win again by a smallish margin based on his record being middling to poor at best. So in a way the swing represents the view of Londonders: "he is meh". The YouGov poll seemed out of line with my experience in London but the Savanta (?) poll seemed about "right" to me.

    A decent candidate would take him to the cleaners. I'd have voted for Stewart over him any day.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
    I was one of the ones generating it, and frankly I was having a great time. It would have been a win for the ages, and we'd've been talking about it for years. What was weird for me is that I was writing it down and suddenly you had people like Laura Kuessenberg saying it. It was like that scene in "Broadcast News".

    In future I will try to use my great power for good.

    In an attempt to turn this into a teachable moment, we now have confirmed that tweets and whatnot are not reliable data and you have to wait for facts on the ground. We also confirm that I can bounce around like a kid on Sunny D on election night ("Oh my God! Oh my Godd!!!"). I will take this lesson to heart and not repeat it. Honest. Really...

    (narrator: the POTUS2024 election is in November)
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,820
    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218
    Is there a running totals page anywhere for the London mayor results?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Yes Khan wins SW London which Bailey won last time.

    Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.

    It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,820
    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    In 2021 First preference votes were

    Tory 77012
    Labour 73939
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    edited May 4
    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'd make the same bet again. It's easy to look wise after the event. Evidence we had at the time:

    (1) Shaun Bailey overperformed last time, despite being a poor candidate, and the polls were way out
    (2) The Conservatives won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, against the odds, due to ULEZ
    (3) Khan was the incumbent, it was his third term, and plenty don't particularly like him
    (4) Mayoral elections are often about individuals more than parties
    (5) Campaign centres were putting out warnings about turnout where the wording suggested they were aimed at their base, normally not a sign of confidence
    (6) Turnout figures this morning showed a slump in core Khan areas and a slight increase in Conservative areas - showing Gaza might have depressed his core vote
    (7) We had a couple of mainstream journalists, like Stephen Bush, suggest it was close - might have information- on top of Susan Hall tweets
    (8) Khan could be laid at 1.02/1.03, which was far too short - given the above, and there was a chance an upset could be there

    Would I make the same bet again?

    Absolutely, and it's only one I placed in the last 72 hours. The polls look like they will turn out on this one to be right, but they haven't always been in the past and they might not be so again in the future.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    I am pretty certain that is what happens. So easy to make money by setting a rumour running
    I'm sure that goes on, and there are examples I know of in sports betting but:

    Stephen Bush is apparently an associate editor at the Financial Times. Adam Bienkov also a legit journalist. Just to take the tweeters from the last header.

    Maybe Bienkov was duped by his "source close to Khan", but isn't it Stephen Bush's own analysis?

    I'm not saying journalists are beyond suspicion, but it does seem a bit unlikely for a successful journo to get involved in such a scheme. Can't have been much liquidity to play with anyway?

    I’m fairly convinced that many journalists simply don’t have sources.

    Remember the confident “Treasury Insider” who was telling journalists that there was going to be no COVID support? 10 minutes before Sunak stood up in the Commons
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079
    .
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
    I was one of the ones generating it, and frankly I was having a great time. It would have been a win for the ages, and we'd've been talking about it for years. What was weird for me is that I was writing it down and suddenly you had people like Laura Kuessenberg saying it. It was like that scene in "Broadcast News".

    In future I will try to use my great power for good.

    In an attempt to turn this into a teachable moment, we now have confirmed that tweets and whatnot are not reliable data and you have to wait for facts on the ground. We also confirm that I can bounce around like a kid on Sunny D on election night ("Oh my God! Oh my Godd!!!"). I will take this lesson to heart and not repeat it. Honest. Really...

    (narrator: the POTUS2024 election is in November)
    What happens in the US with a conspiracy-theory-believing Republican Party is that these rumours and whatnot become evidence of fraud. We thought we were winning and then we lost, therefore there must’ve been voting fraud.

    If it’s a bit of fun speculation and some people can make money on trading bets, fine, but when we have malicious actors undermining democracy, I think there’s a danger that the speculation becomes fuel for their lies.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,870

    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.

    A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.

    I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?
    The incumbent London Mayor increasing his vote share when people keep saying how unpopular he is due to ULEZ and protests kinda seems like a good night for Khan and Labour to me.

    I also don’t believe the hype when it comes to the “No Overall Gov” for Labour. It’s in the media’s interest to suggest that the GE will still be a fight, because it allows them to spend hours blowing hot air into the ether as if to suggest their opinions are important (see all the commentators who wanted to make the mayoral race interesting by suggesting Hall had a shot). Tories are polling at their worst in decades and could reach a point where they are statistically tied with RefUK. At that point you could have a full extinction event - where neither Ref nor Tories get any MPs and Labour have Baathist numbers in parliament.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    AlsoLei said:

    West Central has I believe, never voted Labour before. The Tories are doomed in London.

    It's been trending that way for the past couple of elections at least - I think it was inevitable that it would fall into line with the rest of inner London sooner rather than later.
    The Tories still hold Kensington and Chelsea though, the one borough they still control in inner London, so I think Hands may scrape home in Chelsea and Fulham which is the type of seat which would prefer him and Rishi to a populist like Susan Hall
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,885
    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Yes Khan wins SW London which Bailey won last time.

    Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.

    It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
    And Harrow?
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 823
    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Outer London (covering Kingston, Richmond, and Hounslow), Bailey won last time. This is definitely good for Khan.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Yes Khan wins SW London which Bailey won last time.

    Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.

    It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
    And Harrow?
    Not declared yet
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
    I’d say fewer here were taken in than among the journalists, which says something about the credulity of journalists I suppose.

    Personally I was pretty convinced the result would be tighter than the polls, though Susan winning seemed unlikely. In the end it looks as if if won’t even be tighter than the polls.
    I don’t think anyone bet, from the posters here, on a Hall victory. Rather, they took advantage of a move in the markets.

    Does Hall have sny supporters here?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    Andy_JS said:

    Is there a running totals page anywhere for the London mayor results?

    I'm trying to find same for West Midlands
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218
    I don't know why Shaun Bailey didn't stand again. He did pretty well last time.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,402

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
    I’d say fewer here were taken in than among the journalists, which says something about the credulity of journalists I suppose.

    Personally I was pretty convinced the result would be tighter than the polls, though Susan winning seemed unlikely. In the end it looks as if if won’t even be tighter than the polls.
    I don’t think anyone bet, from the posters here, on a Hall victory. Rather, they took advantage of a move in the markets.

    Does Hall have sny supporters here?
    None that will publicly own up to it.

    This evening's thread header will comprise of a list of rampers, and proposals for appropriate sanctions.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436
    148grss said:

    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.

    A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.

    I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?

    I also don’t believe the hype when it comes to the “No Overall Gov” for Labour. It’s in the media’s interest to suggest that the GE will still be a fight, because it allows them to spend hours blowing hot air into the ether as if to suggest their opinions are important […]
    Absolutely right. Labour are going to win a majority on current showing. If you drill into Thursday’s results with even a modicum of political knowledge there’s nothing there to suggest otherwise.
  • Options
    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 149
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Yes Khan wins SW London which Bailey won last time.

    Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.

    It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
    And Harrow?
    AlsoLei said:

    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Outer London (covering Kingston, Richmond, and Hounslow), Bailey won last time. This is definitely good for Khan.
    Surprised the Libs didn't do better there.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    Chris Mason. Looks like a result in 15 minutes, hopefully:

    Chris Mason

    Political editor

    BBCCopyright: BBC
    Hello from me in Birmingham, where it looks like all the counting has already finished.

    There are about half a dozen count centres around the region and there won’t be a formal result until they’re all done.

    Both the Conservatives and Labour claim the result here is "on a knife edge" but it’s Labour who are sounding more pessimistic.

    A Conservative win here - a victory for Andy Street - would be a helpful psychological fillip for Rishi Sunak.

    We're expecting a result at 14:30. Stay tune
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,820
    Enfield & Haringey Results:

    Labour 82725
    Tory 41389
    Green 11799
    Lib Dem 7947
    Reform 4969
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    edited May 4
    Heathener said:

    148grss said:

    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.

    A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.

    I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?

    I also don’t believe the hype when it comes to the “No Overall Gov” for Labour. It’s in the media’s interest to suggest that the GE will still be a fight, because it allows them to spend hours blowing hot air into the ether as if to suggest their opinions are important […]
    Absolutely right. Labour are going to win a majority on current showing. If you drill into Thursday’s results with even a modicum of political knowledge there’s nothing there to suggest otherwise.
    Where those who have voted LD or Independent or stayed home locally go nationally will be key.

    On the voteshare it got on Thursday nationally Labour would win most seats but not have a big enough lead over the Tories for a majority.

    LD and Independent voters locally are likely to be comfortable with Starmer as PM but still wary of the influence of the left and the remaining Corbynites within Labour still. They are not quite ready to trust Starmer Labour in the way they trusted Blair who had truly transformed Labour into New Labour and won local elections by a huge margin pre 1997.

    So Sunak if he can create fear of the left and squeeze Reform still has a chance of getting a hung parliament or small Labour majority even if Labour win most seats and Starmer becomes PM
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'd make the same bet again. It's easy to look wise after the event. Evidence we had at the time:

    (1) Shaun Bailey overperformed last time, despite being a poor candidate, and the polls were way out
    (2) The Conservatives won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, against the odds, due to ULEZ
    (3) Khan was the incumbent, it was his third term, and plenty don't particularly like him
    (4) Mayoral elections are often about individuals more than parties
    (5) Campaign centres were putting out warnings about turnout where the wording suggested they were aimed at their base, normally not a sign of confidence
    (6) Turnout figures this morning showed a slump in core Khan areas and a slight increase in Conservative areas - showing Gaza might have depressed his core vote
    (7) We had a couple of mainstream journalists, like Stephen Bush, suggest it was close - might have information- on top of Susan Hall tweets
    (8) Khan could be laid at 1.02/1.03, which was far too short - given the above, and there was a chance an upset could be there

    Would I make the same bet again?

    Absolutely, and it's only one I placed in the last 72 hours. The polls look like they will turn out on this one to be right, but they haven't always been in the past and they might not be so again in the future.
    (1) The polls were out last time, but if they’d been out the same amount this time, Khan would still have won. It’s not polls are right or wrong, a binary, it’s about the scale they would’ve had to have been wrong.
    (2) The Conservatives won Uxbridge, but again it’s not a binary thing, it’s by about how much. The Conservatives just held Uxbridge with a substantial swing against them. Hall needed a swing to her, and Uxbridge never predicted that.
    (3) What’s the best evidence of how many like Khan? The polling. What did the polling say: he’d win.
    (5) There was a strong incentive for Labour to warn against turnout because every Labour vote counts for the concurrent Assembly election.
    (6) Turnout figures were slightly favourable for Hall compared to 2021, but that turnout in 2021 would still have seen Khan win.
    (7) Stephen Bush should be embarrassed.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 4
    sbjme19 said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Yes Khan wins SW London which Bailey won last time.

    Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.

    It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
    And Harrow?
    AlsoLei said:

    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Outer London (covering Kingston, Richmond, and Hounslow), Bailey won last time. This is definitely good for Khan.
    Surprised the Libs didn't do better there.
    Probably some Khan voting due to FPTP, if so their constituency/list will be much better
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952

    .

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
    I was one of the ones generating it, and frankly I was having a great time. It would have been a win for the ages, and we'd've been talking about it for years. What was weird for me is that I was writing it down and suddenly you had people like Laura Kuessenberg saying it. It was like that scene in "Broadcast News".

    In future I will try to use my great power for good.

    In an attempt to turn this into a teachable moment, we now have confirmed that tweets and whatnot are not reliable data and you have to wait for facts on the ground. We also confirm that I can bounce around like a kid on Sunny D on election night ("Oh my God! Oh my Godd!!!"). I will take this lesson to heart and not repeat it. Honest. Really...

    (narrator: the POTUS2024 election is in November)
    What happens in the US with a conspiracy-theory-believing Republican Party is that these rumours and whatnot become evidence of fraud. We thought we were winning and then we lost, therefore there must’ve been voting fraud.

    If it’s a bit of fun speculation and some people can make money on trading bets, fine, but when we have malicious actors undermining democracy, I think there’s a danger that the speculation becomes fuel for their lies.
    The main thing was that it happened after the polls were closed. So only some fools were relieved of their money.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,820
    CatMan said:

    Enfield & Haringey Results:

    Labour 82725
    Tory 41389
    Green 11799
    Lib Dem 7947
    Reform 4969

    In 2021 it was

    Labour 74646
    Tory 48101
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535
    I did not (to my regret) pile in on Sadiq at the 1.3 he drifted to during that odd episode yesterday. But thank god anyway. You can't have Susan Hall as Mayor of London.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't know why Shaun Bailey didn't stand again. He did pretty well last time.

    Partygate
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    Heathener said:

    148grss said:

    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.

    A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.

    I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?

    I also don’t believe the hype when it comes to the “No Overall Gov” for Labour. It’s in the media’s interest to suggest that the GE will still be a fight, because it allows them to spend hours blowing hot air into the ether as if to suggest their opinions are important […]
    Absolutely right. Labour are going to win a majority on current showing. If you drill into Thursday’s results with even a modicum of political knowledge there’s nothing there to suggest otherwise.
    The absurdity of saying that seats in Scotland won’t change for a start…
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't know why Shaun Bailey didn't stand again. He did pretty well last time.

    Lord. Partygate.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153
    AlsoLei said:

    CatMan said:

    South West Results:

    Labour 77011
    Tory 68856
    Lib Dem 25579
    Green 10132
    Reform 6634

    Outer London (covering Kingston, Richmond, and Hounslow), Bailey won last time. This is definitely good for Khan.
    Bailey won on first preferences last time, but not after reallocation of second preferences. But Khan's margin now is higher than his margin after reallocation last time.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't know why Shaun Bailey didn't stand again. He did pretty well last time.

    Because he went to a party in COVID-19 lockdown?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,543
    Does it look like YouGov have come away with clean hands on their last poll?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,431
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    Somebody said to me on Whatsapp reading too much into voter turnout figures and assorted hunches is a bit like treating a Scottish subsample like a proper Scottish poll.
    You're in touch with Stuart Dickson on WhatsApp?
    LinkedIn surely?
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382
    edited May 4
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    148grss said:

    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.

    A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.

    I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?

    I also don’t believe the hype when it comes to the “No Overall Gov” for Labour. It’s in the media’s interest to suggest that the GE will still be a fight, because it allows them to spend hours blowing hot air into the ether as if to suggest their opinions are important […]
    Absolutely right. Labour are going to win a majority on current showing. If you drill into Thursday’s results with even a modicum of political knowledge there’s nothing there to suggest otherwise.
    Where those who have voted LD or Independent locally will be key.

    On the voteshare it got on Thursday nationally Labour would win most seats but not have a big enough lead over the Tories for a majority.

    LD and Independent voters locally are likely to be comfortable with Starmer as PM but still wary of the influence of the left and the remaining Corbynites within Labour still. They are not quite ready to trust Starmer Labour in the way they trusted Blair who had truly transformed Labour into New Labour.

    So Sunak if he can create fear of the left and squeeze Reform still has a chance of getting a hung parliament or small Labour majority even if Labour win most seats and Starmer becomes PM
    It's very hard to both provide the right wing red meat to squeeze RefUK, and present a moderate face to the Lib Dems and others that provides greater comfort than Starmer does. Impossible, even.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    Does it look like YouGov have come away with clean hands on their last poll?

    No,the result will be between Savanta and Survation
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    Looks like they're verifying the tallies..

    "In Birmingham, Conservative sources say it's too close to call

    Rajini Vaidyanathan

    Reporting from Birmingham

    Here at the International Convention Centre in the middle of Birmingham, counting has now finished.

    For hours staff sat at trestle tables loaded with black boxes, sifting through piles of yellow ballot papers. Now they – and we wait – for that final result.

    It’s one of the most anticipated results of these elections. Conservative incumbent Andy Street - who has somewhat distanced himself from the national party through this campaign - is hoping he can secure a third term.

    Labour’s Richard Parker is hoping to pull off a big coup for his party by unseating “Brand Andy”.

    Sources close to Andy Street tell me this race is “genuinely too close to call”. It’s a similar mantra from Labour here who say, "this is neck and neck".

    The result is key for both PM Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.

    For Sunak it could be a bright spot after some disappointing results - for Starmer a win in this key region ahead of a general election would give his party further momentum as we head towards a general election."
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
    I’d say fewer here were taken in than among the journalists, which says something about the credulity of journalists I suppose.

    Personally I was pretty convinced the result would be tighter than the polls, though Susan winning seemed unlikely. In the end it looks as if if won’t even be tighter than the polls.
    I don’t think anyone bet, from the posters here, on a Hall victory. Rather, they took advantage of a move in the markets.

    Does Hall have sny supporters here?
    Well as long as it wasn’t them fuelling those market moves.

    We did have some quite spectacular ramping though. One seasoned poster (I won’t name them) wrote this:

    “I’ve been saying for months that Khan could lose and I strongly suspect that he will. If he holds on it will only because the Tories chose such a poor candidate. Anyone half decent and it would not even have been in doubt.”

    In the words of Luke Skywalker, not one single word of that statement is correct.

    My brother was probably pretty typical of many an outer Londoner. Was very cross about ulez at the time. Doesn’t much care for Khan. But he still voted for him. Why? Because end of the day 'he’s doing an okay job, ulez is yesterday’s fight,' and he ‘could not vote for the current tory party.'

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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Does it look like YouGov have come away with clean hands on their last poll?

    For goodness sake Pete, you were one of the people here saying Hall was going to win!
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,807

    FPT

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.

    Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.

    Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.

    The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.

    Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"

    He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.



    His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.

    Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
    Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.

    The right strategy with the right result.
    Leaving aside the more important point that Labour's position here should be primarily based on what is morally and ethically right, it is bizarre that any Labour supporter still thinks that Starmer has been pursuing the "right strategy" on Gaza in terms of party political considerations. For someone who for the first couple of years had been pretty sure footed politically, Starmer's positioning has been surprisingly politically inept. Labour has undoubtably lost the trust and votes of a large swathe of Muslim voters, as well as having given a reason to others on the left to finally break with voting Labour and there is no way that that has been counterbalanced by any significant extra votes gained from elsewhere. That may not matter in a 2024 general election, but it could be decisive in at 2029 general election.

    I have found it hard to find anyone in the Labour Party who thinks that Starmer has taken the right course, and that includes many elected representatives. It is not anything but an opinion confined to the remnants of the Corbyn far left, the opinion "we would have been better voting for Nandy not Starmer" is becoming widespread.

    What is ironic is that Labour has spent the past 7 months rowing back on Starmer's original position, such that the position taken now would not have caused the same reaction had it been taken initially, but that rowing back has never been quite enough to offset the damage done. To give an example: while the Lib Dems are now calling for a halt to arms exports to Israel, Lammy contented himself with calling for the government's legal evidence to be published in the full knowledge that that would not happen. Why couldn't Labour just say that it's own legal advice was that Israel had been committing war crimes, and that it would therefore support an arms embargo unless the government published evidence to the contrary?

    I just hope that when the combined share of the Independent (Yakoob) and Green vote is added together in the West Midlands mayoral election, the penny finally drops. Perhaps it already has, but unless Labour takes a harder stance towards Israel now the damage will persist:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68956784
    Thank you for taking the time to write such a detailed response.

    I wil, respectfully disagree.

    Taking a position to placate voters with Hamas sympathies is what would have been morally reprehensible.

    Taking a position that we know will lose us votes in Muslim areas and amongst the SWP-lite end of Labour has been done for a variety of reasons. Yea, some tactical, but predominantly moral.

    At least, that's what I think.
    I could respectfully disagree with you too but I object strongly to you crassly characterising anyone who strongly objects to the conduct of the appalling Israeli government and its armed forced as having supposed "Hamas sympathies", including of course myself. "SWP-lite" is also an insult to me by the way, I am anything but.

    I also made it clear at the start of my reply to you that Labour's position should be "primarily based on what is morally and ethically right" and that is why I am so appalled with Starmer. It was you that sought to justify Starmer's actions in political terms (".... But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters"). Only in order to debunk those claims of yours did I point out the actual political consequences in my reply.
    Anyone not demanding the release of all hostages as a prerequisite to an end to the conflict is offering succour to the terrorists.

    I am not saying you fall into this camp, and yes, I have been prone to making generalisations on a complex issue. No personal insult intended.

    I am sure we could discuss this in a more nuanced way f2f than is possible via a series of online posts.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    I am pretty certain that is what happens. So easy to make money by setting a rumour running
    I'm sure that goes on, and there are examples I know of in sports betting but:

    Stephen Bush is apparently an associate editor at the Financial Times. Adam Bienkov also a legit journalist. Just to take the tweeters from the last header.

    Maybe Bienkov was duped by his "source close to Khan", but isn't it Stephen Bush's own analysis?

    I'm not saying journalists are beyond suspicion, but it does seem a bit unlikely for a successful journo to get involved in such a scheme. Can't have been much liquidity to play with anyway?

    I’m fairly convinced that many journalists simply don’t have sources.

    Remember the confident “Treasury Insider” who was telling journalists that there was going to be no COVID support? 10 minutes before Sunak stood up in the Commons
    Journalistic FOMO might play a part too. A couple of reporters tweet the rumours which leads to editorial pressure on other reporters to comment, so they sweat their sources who say they've heard something when all they are doing is repeating the rumours back up the chain.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436


    Andy Street […] "this is neck and neck".

    The result is key for both PM Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.

    No it isn’t.

    It’s key for neither.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436

    Heathener said:

    148grss said:

    Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.

    But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.

    Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.

    A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.

    I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?

    I also don’t believe the hype when it comes to the “No Overall Gov” for Labour. It’s in the media’s interest to suggest that the GE will still be a fight, because it allows them to spend hours blowing hot air into the ether as if to suggest their opinions are important […]
    Absolutely right. Labour are going to win a majority on current showing. If you drill into Thursday’s results with even a modicum of political knowledge there’s nothing there to suggest otherwise.
    The absurdity of saying that seats in Scotland won’t change for a start…
    Exactly
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732

    Does it look like YouGov have come away with clean hands on their last poll?

    No,the result will be between Savanta and Survation
    If it comes out as Khan by fifteen (five from last time plus a five percent swing), I suspect that everyone will just about be able to mutter 'Margin of Error'.

    As to whether it will be a five percent swing, want to see Havering/Redbridge and Brom/Bex first...
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218
    Swing so far in London: 4.9% from Con to Lab. Tories needed a swing of 2.4%.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    Heathener said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    North East Results:

    Labour 127455
    Tory 34099
    Green 17907
    Lib Dem 7399
    Reform 4485

    OK, these are massive.

    Khan by a landslide.
    It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
    I'm sorry, but plenty of us were NOT taken in. And - as I say below - of those that were it was mainly lefties IIRC
    I’d say fewer here were taken in than among the journalists, which says something about the credulity of journalists I suppose.

    Personally I was pretty convinced the result would be tighter than the polls, though Susan winning seemed unlikely. In the end it looks as if if won’t even be tighter than the polls.
    I don’t think anyone bet, from the posters here, on a Hall victory. Rather, they took advantage of a move in the markets.

    Does Hall have sny supporters here?
    Well as long as it wasn’t them fuelling those market moves.

    We did have some quite spectacular ramping though. One seasoned poster (I won’t name them) wrote this:

    “I’ve been saying for months that Khan could lose and I strongly suspect that he will. If he holds on it will only because the Tories chose such a poor candidate. Anyone half decent and it would not even have been in doubt.”

    In the words of Luke Skywalker, not one single word of that statement is correct.

    My brother was probably pretty typical of many an outer Londoner. Was very cross about ulez at the time. Doesn’t much care for Khan. But he still voted for him. Why? Because end of the day 'he’s doing an okay job, ulez is yesterday’s fight,' and he ‘could not vote for the current tory party.'

    That’s using anecdote. The sensible approach is that

    1) how wrong would the polls have to be? Have they ever been that wrong in an election
    2) Hall is objectively worse at politics than Bailey.
    3) while there is a personal element to Mayoral voting, Hall isn’t a big beast. Khan isn’t either
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,562
    edited May 4
    As a general observation, quite a lot of tetchiness on here in last 24 hours or so over the London result and the speculation around it. Not entirely sure why. This site is at its best when it is speculative, trading gossip and intel and hypotheses. It feels like, based on these results, what we were hearing from some quarters wasn’t borne out - but that’s part of the fun of elections and the speculation.
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    🚨 BREAKING: BBC calls the London Mayoral Election for Labour's Sadiq Khan

    End result estimation:

    Sadiq Khan: 46%
    Susan Hall: 32%

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786748175061053872

    I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.

    Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
This discussion has been closed.