Does it look like YouGov have come away with clean hands on their last poll?
No,the result will be between Savanta and Survation
If it comes out as Khan by fifteen (five from last time plus a five percent swing), I suspect that everyone will just about be able to mutter 'Margin of Error'.
As to whether it will be a five percent swing, want to see Havering/Redbridge and Brom/Bex first...
We will also be able to compare the Assembly which was also polled
The result is key for both PM Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
No it isn’t.
It’s key for neither.
You’re right… and yet I think the Tories could learn a lot from Street’s success (even if he’s lost, he’ll’ve keep the swing to Labour down). There is a version of Conservatism represented by Street and a somewhat similar one by Houchen that offers the electorate more than Sunak/Truss.
Votes in for West Midlands PCC so far: Tory wins by 12k in Solihull, Labour by 11k in Wolverhampton. Solihull and Walsall are the only councils with a Tory majority, so with only Walsall left of those it looks good for Labour's Simon Foster.
There was some evidence from Friday's verification that in the mayoral contest Street was doing a bit better than the Tory PCC.
The result is key for both PM Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
No it isn’t.
It’s key for neither.
You’re right… and yet I think the Tories could learn a lot from Street’s success (even if he’s lost, he’ll’ve keep the swing to Labour down). There is a version of Conservatism represented by Street and a somewhat similar one by Houchen that offers the electorate more than Sunak/Truss.
They have actually offered what Johnson offered in 2019. Of course Johnson had no understanding or ability to deliver it but if I was looking to win again I'd look at them. But would mean them going away from the culture war, right wing stuff. Is that what their party want?
Labour 127455 Tory 34099 Green 17907 Lib Dem 7399 Reform 4485
OK, these are massive.
Khan by a landslide.
It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
I'd make the same bet again. It's easy to look wise after the event. Evidence we had at the time:
(1) Shaun Bailey overperformed last time, despite being a poor candidate, and the polls were way out (2) The Conservatives won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, against the odds, due to ULEZ (3) Khan was the incumbent, it was his third term, and plenty don't particularly like him (4) Mayoral elections are often about individuals more than parties (5) Campaign centres were putting out warnings about turnout where the wording suggested they were aimed at their base, normally not a sign of confidence (6) Turnout figures this morning showed a slump in core Khan areas and a slight increase in Conservative areas - showing Gaza might have depressed his core vote (7) We had a couple of mainstream journalists, like Stephen Bush, suggest it was close - might have information- on top of Susan Hall tweets (8) Khan could be laid at 1.02/1.03, which was far too short - given the above, and there was a chance an upset could be there
Would I make the same bet again?
Absolutely, and it's only one I placed in the last 72 hours. The polls look like they will turn out on this one to be right, but they haven't always been in the past and they might not be so again in the future.
(1) The polls were out last time, but if they’d been out the same amount this time, Khan would still have won. It’s not polls are right or wrong, a binary, it’s about the scale they would’ve had to have been wrong. (2) The Conservatives won Uxbridge, but again it’s not a binary thing, it’s by about how much. The Conservatives just held Uxbridge with a substantial swing against them. Hall needed a swing to her, and Uxbridge never predicted that. (3) What’s the best evidence of how many like Khan? The polling. What did the polling say: he’d win. (5) There was a strong incentive for Labour to warn against turnout because every Labour vote counts for the concurrent Assembly election. (6) Turnout figures were slightly favourable for Hall compared to 2021, but that turnout in 2021 would still have seen Khan win. (7) Stephen Bush should be embarrassed.
Again, you don't understand the concept of a value bet. Here's what I said yesterday:
"Thanks. We shall see. Khan only got 40% last time, and hasn't got more popular since, so the bet I'm most pleased about is 22/1 on his voteshare being between 35-40%.
I laid Khan at 1.03 with £10 because of the prospective profit on that, which I can easily afford in the headroom, and just in case there is a huge upset - which I can just about conceive happening, although unlikely.
It could easily be Khan wins 39% to Hall on 28%. Or Khan on 41% to Hall on 30% (darn). Or Khan on 38% to Hall on 35%.
Maybe, just maybe, there is a Hall on 36.5% and Khan on 36.5% nail biter too, but although very unlikely it's not impossible"
You'll see I said I could just about conceive it happening, and not being impossible, although it's unlikely.
I'd make exactly the same bet again for a very short odds-on candidate where I sensed value. However, next time I'd factor in a higher note of the polls, you're right on that, because this time they've proven to be quite accurate for Khan, Houchen and Street all round.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Labour 77011 Tory 68856 Lib Dem 25579 Green 10132 Reform 6634
Yes Khan wins SW London which Bailey won last time.
Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.
It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
Labour 77011 Tory 68856 Lib Dem 25579 Green 10132 Reform 6634
Yes Khan wins SW London which Bailey won last time.
Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.
It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
Labour 77011 Tory 68856 Lib Dem 25579 Green 10132 Reform 6634
Outer London (covering Kingston, Richmond, and Hounslow), Bailey won last time. This is definitely good for Khan.
Surprised the Libs didn't do better there.
They're up 4,500 on 2021 despite the electoral system change. That bodes reasonably well for SW London constituency and list. Greens are down 6,000 by contrast (although Sian Berry was a more prominent candidate last time).
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
1) Labour are doing well 2) The conservatives are doing very badly 3) Khan hasn’t fucked up* 4) Hall is worse at politics than Shaun Bailey
*the gaff about machetes just before the horrible incident the other day could have been damaging in a different kind of race.
I hope the Tories conclude that Trumpian politics isn’t a winner and they remember the success they had with Cameron. There are synergies between Conservatism and environmental politics. A rich seam to mine.
Slightly better result for Hall in Bexley & Bromley - bith Tory and Labour up on 2021, but her by more... but that's exactly where she needed the numbers and it clearly isn't anywhere near enough.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
Votes in for West Midlands PCC so far: Tory wins by 12k in Solihull, Labour by 11k in Wolverhampton. Solihull and Walsall are the only councils with a Tory majority, so with only Walsall left of those it looks good for Labour's Simon Foster.
There was some evidence from Friday's verification that in the mayoral contest Street was doing a bit better than the Tory PCC.
Labour up by 18k in WM PCC election in Coventry, that's about a 17k overall lead with results from Coventry, Solihull and Wolverhampton so far. Nothing for WM Mayor, I assume they are counting that separately after the WM PCC.
Labour 77011 Tory 68856 Lib Dem 25579 Green 10132 Reform 6634
Yes Khan wins SW London which Bailey won last time.
Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.
It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
Labour 77011 Tory 68856 Lib Dem 25579 Green 10132 Reform 6634
Outer London (covering Kingston, Richmond, and Hounslow), Bailey won last time. This is definitely good for Khan.
Surprised the Libs didn't do better there.
They're up 4,500 on 2021 despite the electoral system change. That bodes reasonably well for SW London constituency and list. Greens are down 6,000 by contrast (although Sian Berry was a more prominent candidate last time).
Yes I remember now that especially Kingston is a v small borough and Hounslow is large in terms of population.
BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor
The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.
We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:
Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43% Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
Khan is cruising to victory on these results, still a way to go however.
But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.
Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.
A 5% swing compared with 2021 isn't particularly good (even if it amounts to that when the more outer bits of London come in). 2021 was a pretty good set of local elections for the Tories.
I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?
The incumbent London Mayor increasing his vote share when people keep saying how unpopular he is due to ULEZ and protests kinda seems like a good night for Khan and Labour to me.
I also don’t believe the hype when it comes to the “No Overall Gov” for Labour. It’s in the media’s interest to suggest that the GE will still be a fight, because it allows them to spend hours blowing hot air into the ether as if to suggest their opinions are important (see all the commentators who wanted to make the mayoral race interesting by suggesting Hall had a shot). Tories are polling at their worst in decades and could reach a point where they are statistically tied with RefUK. At that point you could have a full extinction event - where neither Ref nor Tories get any MPs and Labour have Baathist numbers in parliament.
Yes, I agree, and I am not exactly pleased by the prospect of a Labour govt. This week's results point to a solid Labour majority, but maybe NOT the ELE the Tories fear
Given how many seats Starmer will need to win that's still highly impressive. Also the Nits will surely shed seats in Scotland
🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
Blimey. Did he forget to vote?
It's bullshit clickbait nonsense.
A source told @DavidPBMaddox that the PM used a postal vote for the contest in York and North Yorkshire where Labour's David Skaith won the newly created mayoralty against the Tories' Keane Duncan
🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
Blimey. Did he forget to vote?
It's bullshit clickbait nonsense.
A source told @DavidPBMaddox that the PM used a postal vote for the contest in York and North Yorkshire where Labour's David Skaith won the newly created mayoralty against the Tories' Keane Duncan
Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.
I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....
Not that lying, self aggrandising nonsense, and endless bullcrap are things he has a problem with (to answer Dura Ace's point), but his fans tend to be less accomodating of that stuff with people besides him, so he needs someone steadier.
Does it look like YouGov have come away with clean hands on their last poll?
For goodness sake Pete, you were one of the people here saying Hall was going to win!
I responded to Rabbit on Thursday after the CCHQ tweets and Moon Rabbit's justification via the collapse in the Muslim vote, low turnout and her claim of unpopular incumbency effect. Like a number of left learners I could see Hall's way through on those explanations.
I was very nervous yesterday when Betfair dropped into the threes for Hall. Casino called me out for accusing Rabbit and AndyJS of ramping. I have in every post explained my view that Hall comes across an appalling human being.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
MPs almost never get a personal vote enough to beat the national trend yes, even most councillors with a party label don't unless hugely popular long term incumbents.
Mayors however can get a personal vote despite their party label (similar story in the US and France) and yes the push is for all big urban areas to have them
🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
Blimey. Did he forget to vote?
It's bullshit clickbait nonsense.
A source told @DavidPBMaddox that the PM used a postal vote for the contest in York and North Yorkshire where Labour's David Skaith won the newly created mayoralty against the Tories' Keane Duncan
Voters in N Yorks obviously not Keane on the Tories.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
A walk in the palk was predicted, and that's what it ended up being.
I don't think there's anything unclear in Khan's success - yes in part it is opponents and national situation, but he also doesn't appear to have that many push factors to aid his opponents be repelling voters. There's policy decisions people don't necessarily approve of, but Londoners seem pretty forgiving of their mayors to date.
The result is key for both PM Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
No it isn’t.
It’s key for neither.
Both have had a good or bad night regardless. Sure holding an additional high profile mayoralty makes a defensive or optimistic narrative a tad easier to attempt, but it doesn't change the overall picture for either.
London being a surprise would have, it's the capital and would have been such a shock, but not the other mayors.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
Gove wanted regional govenors to be pseudo mayors for rural regions.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
Gove wanted regional govenors to be pseudo mayors for rural regions.
🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
Blimey. Did he forget to vote?
It's bullshit clickbait nonsense.
A source told @DavidPBMaddox that the PM used a postal vote for the contest in York and North Yorkshire where Labour's David Skaith won the newly created mayoralty against the Tories' Keane Duncan
Er... it's </>true clickbait nonsense, shirley?
Makes sense actually; Hall was unlikely to win and Duncan vs Skaith was an unknown quantity. A few years ago the Tories had a campaign to encourage their supporters in (then) safe Home Counties seats to consider registering at their second homes especially if they were in then Lib marginal constituencies.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
Gove wanted regional govenors to be pseudo mayors for rural regions.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
Gove wanted regional govenors to be pseudo mayors for rural regions.
🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
Blimey. Did he forget to vote?
It's bullshit clickbait nonsense.
A source told @DavidPBMaddox that the PM used a postal vote for the contest in York and North Yorkshire where Labour's David Skaith won the newly created mayoralty against the Tories' Keane Duncan
Er... it's </>true clickbait nonsense, shirley?
Makes sense actually; Hall was unlikely to win and Duncan vs Skaith was an unknown quantity. A few years ago the Tories had a campaign to encourage their supporters in (then) safe Home Counties seats to consider registering at their second homes especially if they were in then Lib marginal constituencies.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
MPs almost never get a personal vote enough to beat the national trend yes, even most councillors with a party label don't unless hugely popular long term incumbents.
Mayors however can get a personal vote despite their party label (similar story in the US and France) and yes the push is for all big urban areas to have them
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
Gove wanted regional govenors to be pseudo mayors for rural regions.
I'm old enouigh to remember when regional governors would *be* mayors for rural regions - there wouldn't have been anything else left after the Bomb fell.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
This was Jeremy Vine in around 2007. I recall OGH not being too impressed with the cowboy theme!
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
Gove wanted regional govenors to be pseudo mayors for rural regions.
District Tzars is the only way to go!
"Gove's Gauleiters"
"Gove-ernors"
We could try "Stadtholder" of course. Or even the English equivalent - "Steward". The Steward of Dorset! To me, my Rohirrim! Onwards to South Hampton! Take the seas!
(narrator: go home Viewcode, go home, you've had enough...)
The result is key for both PM Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
No it isn’t.
It’s key for neither.
You’re right… and yet I think the Tories could learn a lot from Street’s success (even if he’s lost, he’ll’ve keep the swing to Labour down). There is a version of Conservatism represented by Street and a somewhat similar one by Houchen that offers the electorate more than Sunak/Truss.
They have actually offered what Johnson offered in 2019. Of course Johnson had no understanding or ability to deliver it but if I was looking to win again I'd look at them. But would mean them going away from the culture war, right wing stuff. Is that what their party want?
To an extent, they offer what Johnson offered. I can see the similarities with Houchen more, all local pride and boosterism and levelling up. Street is more about competence (not what Boris offered!) and a friendlier face to capitalism. But, yes, if you take some of Johnson's promises and put a competent plan behind them, that'll win you elections.
🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
Blimey. Did he forget to vote?
It's bullshit clickbait nonsense.
A source told @DavidPBMaddox that the PM used a postal vote for the contest in York and North Yorkshire where Labour's David Skaith won the newly created mayoralty against the Tories' Keane Duncan
Er... it's </>true clickbait nonsense, shirley?
Makes sense actually; Hall was unlikely to win and Duncan vs Skaith was an unknown quantity. A few years ago the Tories had a campaign to encourage their supporters in (then) safe Home Counties seats to consider registering at their second homes especially if they were in then Lib marginal constituencies.
I thought you could vote in local & mayoral elections in both places if you were registered to vote in multiple locations?
Perhaps Rishi isn't registered in London, but I don't see why he wouldn't be - it's not like he commutes to work from Yorkshire every day.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Thinking about it, 'Hall might win' was probably started by an over enthusiastic Hall staffer, but Labour decided to play along with it because it makes Khan's (otherwise actually quite poor) win now look good. Journalists then took it seriously because they were hearing it from both camps.
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.
Something more than being the Labour candidate in a Labour city when Labour are also 20 ahead in the national polls?
Yes, even under Corbyn in 2019 Labour got 48% of the vote in London.
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
It's unusual that: personal votes. I remember 2015 when everybody was convinced the LDs wouldn't be annihilated because of personal votes, and - whoops - they were. It implies that the mayoralities, in concept and in size, may be about right. Isn't there some kind of push to have mayoralities across England? Or am I misremembering
MPs almost never get a personal vote enough to beat the national trend yes, even most councillors with a party label don't unless hugely popular long term incumbents.
Mayors however can get a personal vote despite their party label (similar story in the US and France) and yes the push is for all big urban areas to have them
I'd like to see it. One of the success stories of this administration, I think.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Very soon, whatever happens in the West Midlands mayoral vote, politics is going to resume. Not much has changed tbh. A lot of excitement about little, with current national opinion polling broadly borne out by these various votes.
This week has been a couple of sparklers in the back garden. The real fireworks start when Sunak decides to go to the country.
Labour 127455 Tory 34099 Green 17907 Lib Dem 7399 Reform 4485
OK, these are massive.
Khan by a landslide.
It seems the entire media class has been taken in by the rumours yesterday. (As have most of us here). They must be kicking themselves today, and a little bit annoyed with the parties.
I'd make the same bet again. It's easy to look wise after the event. Evidence we had at the time:
(1) Shaun Bailey overperformed last time, despite being a poor candidate, and the polls were way out (2) The Conservatives won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, against the odds, due to ULEZ (3) Khan was the incumbent, it was his third term, and plenty don't particularly like him (4) Mayoral elections are often about individuals more than parties (5) Campaign centres were putting out warnings about turnout where the wording suggested they were aimed at their base, normally not a sign of confidence (6) Turnout figures this morning showed a slump in core Khan areas and a slight increase in Conservative areas - showing Gaza might have depressed his core vote (7) We had a couple of mainstream journalists, like Stephen Bush, suggest it was close - might have information- on top of Susan Hall tweets (8) Khan could be laid at 1.02/1.03, which was far too short - given the above, and there was a chance an upset could be there
Would I make the same bet again?
Absolutely, and it's only one I placed in the last 72 hours. The polls look like they will turn out on this one to be right, but they haven't always been in the past and they might not be so again in the future.
(1) The polls were out last time, but if they’d been out the same amount this time, Khan would still have won. It’s not polls are right or wrong, a binary, it’s about the scale they would’ve had to have been wrong. (2) The Conservatives won Uxbridge, but again it’s not a binary thing, it’s by about how much. The Conservatives just held Uxbridge with a substantial swing against them. Hall needed a swing to her, and Uxbridge never predicted that. (3) What’s the best evidence of how many like Khan? The polling. What did the polling say: he’d win. (5) There was a strong incentive for Labour to warn against turnout because every Labour vote counts for the concurrent Assembly election. (6) Turnout figures were slightly favourable for Hall compared to 2021, but that turnout in 2021 would still have seen Khan win. (7) Stephen Bush should be embarrassed.
Again, you don't understand the concept of a value bet. Here's what I said yesterday:
"Thanks. We shall see. Khan only got 40% last time, and hasn't got more popular since, so the bet I'm most pleased about is 22/1 on his voteshare being between 35-40%.
I laid Khan at 1.03 with £10 because of the prospective profit on that, which I can easily afford in the headroom, and just in case there is a huge upset - which I can just about conceive happening, although unlikely.
It could easily be Khan wins 39% to Hall on 28%. Or Khan on 41% to Hall on 30% (darn). Or Khan on 38% to Hall on 35%.
Maybe, just maybe, there is a Hall on 36.5% and Khan on 36.5% nail biter too, but although very unlikely it's not impossible"
You'll see I said I could just about conceive it happening, and not being impossible, although it's unlikely.
I'd make exactly the same bet again for a very short odds-on candidate where I sensed value. However, next time I'd factor in a higher note of the polls, you're right on that, because this time they've proven to be quite accurate for Khan, Houchen and Street all round.
I have no criticism of your vote share bets. I think you spotted value there. Laying Khan at 1.03... I wouldn't have done that, but, OK, I can see the argument.
But you also said in recent days that Hall had a 15% chance. That, I suggest, was a gross miscalculation. Did you put some bets on Hall? What odds did you go in at? Anything shorter than 25:1 was madness, in my view.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor
The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.
We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:
Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43% Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.
That's tighter than all the four polls in April, although within MOE of Savanta and R&W. YouGov well out.
Israel refuses hostage release if it means a ceasefire - and it seems to have always been the case that Netanyahu’s government have been unwilling to free the hostages if it meant peace. Seems like those of us who have been called “Hamas supporters” are the ones who really care about the hostages…
BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor
The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.
We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:
Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43% Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.
Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
Because he voted in York and North Yorkshire instead... although he's legally allowed to vote in both.
Are you sure? The commission’s description of the rules here aren’t clear. It says you cannot exercise a vote in a second home in the London mayoralty election, but can for others:
I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
100/1 for next con leader looks generous to me, in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Patel/Badenoch/Braverman’s all knock each other out and the sane wing of the Tory party prevails.
Very soon, whatever happens in the West Midlands mayoral vote, politics is going to resume. Not much has changed tbh. A lot of excitement about little, with current national opinion polling broadly borne out by these various votes.
This week has been a couple of sparklers in the back garden. The real fireworks start when Sunak decides to go to the country.
Good afternoon
My take is that the results very much confirm the polling and as I said yesterday I simply did not believe Khan wouldn't win London
It seems that ,notwithstanding the poor showing of the conservatives, they have finally come to their senses and Sunak will take them into the election which I expect to be in November- December and that Starmer will win a comfortable majority for a 5 year term
What follows I have no idea but the problems are so profound I do not think anyone can predict the politics of the next few years
Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?
Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?
I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.
The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.
Never attribute to malice, that which night be otherwise explained by incompetence.
An evergreen adage; the older I get the more experience teaches me that it is true.
Comments
There's been a massive swing from Tories to Labour, there was no chance of a Labour incumbent losing in those circumstances.
There was some evidence from Friday's verification that in the mayoral contest Street was doing a bit better than the Tory PCC.
"Thanks. We shall see. Khan only got 40% last time, and hasn't got more popular since, so the bet I'm most pleased about is 22/1 on his voteshare being between 35-40%.
I laid Khan at 1.03 with £10 because of the prospective profit on that, which I can easily afford in the headroom, and just in case there is a huge upset - which I can just about conceive happening, although unlikely.
It could easily be Khan wins 39% to Hall on 28%. Or Khan on 41% to Hall on 30% (darn). Or Khan on 38% to Hall on 35%.
Maybe, just maybe, there is a Hall on 36.5% and Khan on 36.5% nail biter too, but although very unlikely it's not impossible"
You'll see I said I could just about conceive it happening, and not being impossible, although it's unlikely.
I'd make exactly the same bet again for a very short odds-on candidate where I sensed value. However, next time I'd factor in a higher note of the polls, you're right on that, because this time they've proven to be quite accurate for Khan, Houchen and Street all round.
2) The conservatives are doing very badly
3) Khan hasn’t fucked up*
4) Hall is worse at politics than Shaun Bailey
*the gaff about machetes just before the horrible incident the other day could have been damaging in a different kind of race.
Tory 111216
Labour 48952
Lib Dem 10111
Reform 9243
Green 8600
2021 Results were
Tory 100630
Labour 44350
🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
So well done Sadiq, you have got another 4 years but let us not pretend he was re elected for any other reason than he was wearing a red rosette. There is certainly no huge love for him in the capital.
Ben Houchen and maybe Andy Street and Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram however do get personal votes as Mayors beyond their party label
Foster (Labour) won with 125,631 votes.
Tom Byrne (Cons) received 77,798 votes
The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.
We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:
Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43%
Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
Given how many seats Starmer will need to win that's still highly impressive. Also the Nits will surely shed seats in Scotland
A source told @DavidPBMaddox that the PM used a postal vote for the contest in York and North Yorkshire where Labour's David Skaith won the newly created mayoralty against the Tories' Keane Duncan
I was very nervous yesterday when Betfair dropped into the threes for Hall. Casino called me out for accusing Rabbit and AndyJS of ramping. I have in every post explained my view that Hall comes across an appalling human being.
Mayors however can get a personal vote despite their party label (similar story in the US and France) and yes the push is for all big urban areas to have them
I don't think there's anything unclear in Khan's success - yes in part it is opponents and national situation, but he also doesn't appear to have that many push factors to aid his opponents be repelling voters. There's policy decisions people don't necessarily approve of, but Londoners seem pretty forgiving of their mayors to date.
London being a surprise would have, it's the capital and would have been such a shock, but not the other mayors.
Numbers are too hard.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/west-midlands-mayor-results-live-29112277
A few years ago the Tories had a campaign to encourage their supporters in (then) safe Home Counties seats to consider registering at their second homes especially if they were in then Lib marginal constituencies.
Street 62.5%
Parker 20.8%
5% swing to Lab compared to 2021
Everyone expected Labour to win London. It should have been met with a shrug. Now it feels like "another big failure".
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/west-midlands-mayor-results-live-29112277
https://capturingcambridge.org/newtown/kingfisher-way/cambridge-nuclear-bunker/
(narrator: go home Viewcode, go home, you've had enough...)
Perhaps Rishi isn't registered in London, but I don't see why he wouldn't be - it's not like he commutes to work from Yorkshire every day.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y7JX8D1Kb88
Dig the Lib Dem Cleggover Lurve Potion model number thirty in her smalls. This is only 16 years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7JX8D1Kb88
This week has been a couple of sparklers in the back garden. The real fireworks start when Sunak decides to go to the country.
Tory 66151
Labour 58743
Lib Dem 7184
Green 6984
Reform 3636
2021 Results:
Tory 65566
Labour 61778
Hall 66,151 [65,566]
Khan 58,743 [61,778]
I think that's a slight swing to the Tories.
But you also said in recent days that Hall had a 15% chance. That, I suggest, was a gross miscalculation. Did you put some bets on Hall? What odds did you go in at? Anything shorter than 25:1 was madness, in my view.
Pre social media age.
My guess is the Conservatives will regain wards like Northwick Park, Preston, Barnhill, and the remain seats in Queensbury, in 2026.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-doubt-netanyahu-preventing-hostage-deal-charges-ex-spokesman-of-families-forum/
Israel refuses hostage release if it means a ceasefire - and it seems to have always been the case that Netanyahu’s government have been unwilling to free the hostages if it meant peace. Seems like those of us who have been called “Hamas supporters” are the ones who really care about the hostages…
Even Twitter was spring 2007 iirc. I was late to it in early 2008.
By 2010 Facebook had 24m users in the UK.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/who-can-vote/other-registration-options/voting-and-second-homes
100/1 for next con leader looks generous to me, in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Patel/Badenoch/Braverman’s all knock each other out and the sane wing of the Tory party prevails.
My take is that the results very much confirm the polling and as I said yesterday I simply did not believe Khan wouldn't win London
It seems that ,notwithstanding the poor showing of the conservatives, they have finally come to their senses and Sunak will take them into the election which I expect to be in November- December and that Starmer will win a comfortable majority for a 5 year term
What follows I have no idea but the problems are so profound I do not think anyone can predict the politics of the next few years