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How Betfair has been reacting over the last few days – politicalbetting.com

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    edited May 4
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall

    Because he voted in York and North Yorkshire instead... although he's legally allowed to vote in both.
    Are you sure? The commission’s description of the rules here aren’t clear. It says you cannot exercise a vote in a second home in the London mayoralty election, but can for others:

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/who-can-vote/other-registration-options/voting-and-second-homes
    Oh! I take it back then. I presumed London counted as just another local election.

    Good of Sunak to obey the law. (For once.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    legatus said:

    Solihull saw a 5.35% Con to Lab swing. Labour needs 4.5% across the West Midlands area.

    But no Gaza effect in Solihull.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    I did tell you Andy Burnham would win Manchester...
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Solihull:

    Street 62.5%
    Parker 20.8%

    5% swing to Lab compared to 2021

    I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
    Would he really want to be an MP if he wins today? He's 60 and the Tories will be in opposition, so he's not realistically going to be part of the plans when the Tories return at some point. Meanwhile, being Mayor is a serious job with real power.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Ghedebrav said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    Never attribute to malice, that which night be otherwise explained by incompetence.
    An evergreen adage; the older I get the more experience teaches me that it is true.
    Although malice and incompetence are not mutually exclusive qualities, as the current government indicates.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270

    BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.

    Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.

    I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
    This was Jeremy Vine in around 2007. I recall OGH not being too impressed with the cowboy theme!
    No one was. Then the BBC tried the whiny excuse that they were trying to be be more inclusive and trendy to get younger people interested. For local election results at 3am….

    Several people on PB had stayed up and when they failed to actually provide the elections results….
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor

    The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.

    We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:

    Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43%
    Susan Hall (CON) - 33%

    This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.

    Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
    Seems to be a case of nobody wanting to run a strong campaign in case they still lose.

    Like refusing to revise hard for a subject you are rubbish at on the grounds that it will only make you look more stupid when you fail.

    It needs a maverick who doesn't care.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Ealing & Hillingdon Results:

    Tory 75396
    Labour 73257
    Green 10508
    Lib Dem 10120
    Reform 6983

    2021 Results:

    Tory 79863
    Labour 74854
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor

    The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.

    We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:

    Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43%
    Susan Hall (CON) - 33%

    This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.

    Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
    Seems to be a case of nobody wanting to run a strong campaign in case they still lose.

    Like refusing to revise hard for a subject you are rubbish at on the grounds that it will only make you look more stupid when you fail.

    It needs a maverick who doesn't care.
    I'm not convinced a good Tory candidate could have made up that 10% gap this year. However, in 2029, under a Labour government, there's every chance for the Tories to re-take the city, as long as they find a sensible candidate and work out in opposition what they're about without going madly to the right... so, in other words, probably not...
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Andy_JS said:

    legatus said:

    Solihull saw a 5.35% Con to Lab swing. Labour needs 4.5% across the West Midlands area.

    But no Gaza effect in Solihull.
    There's a swing to Labour in Coventry with the council elections btw
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724

    I did tell you Andy Burnham would win Manchester...

    The King is back in office.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?

    Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?

    I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.

    The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.

    Never attribute to malice, that which night be otherwise explained by incompetence.
    Post Office scandal being a good example.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    Yougov can’t even say margin of error, for London, but they have bragging rights for West Midlands.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Susan Hall wins Ealing & Hillingdon. Not much swing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor

    The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.

    We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:

    Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43%
    Susan Hall (CON) - 33%

    This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.

    Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
    Yes.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    Scott_xP said:

    @donaeldunready

    Looks like Susan Hall has entered the Ultra Low Votes Zone.

    Hall’s performance seems quite respectable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor

    The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.

    We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:

    Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43%
    Susan Hall (CON) - 33%

    This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.

    Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
    Seems to be a case of nobody wanting to run a strong campaign in case they still lose.

    Like refusing to revise hard for a subject you are rubbish at on the grounds that it will only make you look more stupid when you fail.

    It needs a maverick who doesn't care.
    Nice analogy!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Greens seem to be consistently beating the Liberals in mayor elections.

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    They've already announced it. It's Lauren Layfield and Hacker T Dog off of CBeebies, as they want to appeal to normal men.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    They've already announced it. It's Lauren Layfield and Hacker T Dog off of CBeebies, as they want to appeal to normal men.
    Innocent men.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 4
    Is this twitter site bona fide? I just don’t know what to believe any more with twitter / X? They keep posting up West Midlands results:

    https://twitter.com/GlobeElections


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    YES WE KHAN!!!

    Worth looking back at the utter partisan drivel masquerading as analysis on here the last 48 hours. Embarrassing.

    How are you? Feeling more relaxed today?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited May 4

    BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.

    Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.

    I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
    This was Jeremy Vine in around 2007. I recall OGH not being too impressed with the cowboy theme!
    No one was. Then the BBC tried the whiny excuse that they were trying to be be more inclusive and trendy to get younger people interested. For local election results at 3am….

    Several people on PB had stayed up and when they failed to actually provide the elections results….
    Anyhoo I just dropped on twitter and tagged @theJeremyVine , to make the day a little more interesting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Heathener said:

    Is this twitter site bona fide? I just don’t know what to believe any more with twitter / X? They keep posting up West Midlands results:

    https://twitter.com/GlobeElections


    Projections, hence the goofy two decimal point %s
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Heathener said:

    Is this twitter site bona fide? I just don’t know what to believe any more with twitter / X? They keep posting up West Midlands results:

    https://twitter.com/GlobeElections


    What a prattish feed that is. Somebody making things up.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    CatMan said:

    Ealing & Hillingdon Results:

    Tory 75396
    Labour 73257
    Green 10508
    Lib Dem 10120
    Reform 6983

    2021 Results:

    Tory 79863
    Labour 74854

    Outer London, covers Uxbridge, of ULEZ by-election fame. Hall underperforming here - I think that ULEZ is turning out to be a much less salient issue than the Tories had been hoping.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    NeilVW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
    Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Is this twitter site bona fide? I just don’t know what to believe any more with twitter / X? They keep posting up West Midlands results:

    https://twitter.com/GlobeElections


    Projections, hence the goofy two decimal point %s
    Oh thanks. Silly me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
    Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
    Laura K?

    You have gotta be kidding me.

    Jeez.

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149

    Greens seem to be consistently beating the Liberals in mayor elections.

    It's in the low numbers territory for both, but I was just thinking Greens were rather underperforming and Lib Dems doing somewhat better than last time in results for London so far. Don't know how that will translate to list vote and SW London constituency (neither party is relevant anywhere else in terms of constituency members) but Lib Dems looking in a reasonable position to pick up a third seat on the Assembly and Greens slightly at risk of going down to two. But hard to read with tactical situation.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    For people who want to see what a real Labour fiefdom city is, look at Manchester not London.

    Burnham’s share slightly down but still received more than six times the votes of his nearest competitor.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    OllyT said:

    I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!

    Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens

    Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.

    I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .

    1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.

    The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
    I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    AlsoLei said:

    CatMan said:

    Ealing & Hillingdon Results:

    Tory 75396
    Labour 73257
    Green 10508
    Lib Dem 10120
    Reform 6983

    2021 Results:

    Tory 79863
    Labour 74854

    Outer London, covers Uxbridge, of ULEZ by-election fame. Hall underperforming here - I think that ULEZ is turning out to be a much less salient issue than the Tories had been hoping.
    The swing in the mayoral race is pretty similar to the swing in the Uxbridge & SR by-election.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    38m
    One other thing to remember. The Tories didn't just build Susan Hall's campaign around a failed core vote strategy. Rishi Sunak tore up his own strategy after Uxbridge and tried to build a national campaign on the same basis.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1786754139294138610

    In fact, if Hall wins 32/33% that matches the Conservative vote share in 2019. That is substantially outperforming the Conservatives nationally.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    I did tell you Andy Burnham would win Manchester...

    The King is back in office.
    On the dry side of the Pennines, so is the Queen.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    City and East incoming
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sean_F said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    38m
    One other thing to remember. The Tories didn't just build Susan Hall's campaign around a failed core vote strategy. Rishi Sunak tore up his own strategy after Uxbridge and tried to build a national campaign on the same basis.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1786754139294138610

    In fact, if Hall wins 32/33% that matches the Conservative vote share in 2019. That is substantially outperforming the Conservatives nationally.
    And the polling, savanta aside
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855

    I did tell you Andy Burnham would win Manchester...

    The King is back in office.
    On the dry side of the Pennines, so is the Queen.
    Massive drop in the Tory vote there too. Great result for Tracy Brabin.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    I hope some people on here backed Khan at 1.33 or whatever he drifted to. I said to my girlfriend I probably should do at that price when I saw it, but didn’t. That’s the tough thing about betting on politics, when you see what appears to be massive value there always the risk that the other side of the bet has inside info

    The best bet I had on politics was when I did have some inside info - as a UKIP member, I got the news that they were only standing in a certain amount of seats in GE17 and so backed them at 1/3 for £3k to poll less than 10% (I think that was the bet anyway). Cant believe the betting shop laid it really, but that was the definition of easy money
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    City & East

    Khan 108,977
    Hall 38,626
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,901

    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Solihull:

    Street 62.5%
    Parker 20.8%

    5% swing to Lab compared to 2021

    I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
    Would he really want to be an MP if he wins today? He's 60 and the Tories will be in opposition, so he's not realistically going to be part of the plans when the Tories return at some point. Meanwhile, being Mayor is a serious job with real power.
    And if he loses? There is some even money available for Street on Betfair. Labour (who?) odds-on.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    City & East Results:

    Labour 108977
    Tory 38626
    Green 13256
    Lib Dem 7551
    Reform 6898

    2021 Results:

    Labour 99971
    Tory 58145
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Brum:

    In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.

    Guarduan
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    OllyT said:

    I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!

    Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens

    Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.

    I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .

    1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.

    The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
    I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
    Yeah - my vote will be a vote to bin off our Tory rather than get in a Lib Dem. But I’ll be voting LD over my usual party of choice.

    I did the vote swap thing last time and got a surprising person known to this site as my paired voter.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    Cons hold Wiltshire PCC.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    Meanwhile in the locals it’s LD 521, Con 509, so the Lib Dems have extended their lead and I think that probably seals it for them with one council still to announce.

    Pretty stunning result to beat the Tories on council seats. The total Tory losses at just shy of 500 are pretty much bang on what the pre-poll MRP suggested.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149

    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Solihull:

    Street 62.5%
    Parker 20.8%

    5% swing to Lab compared to 2021

    I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
    Would he really want to be an MP if he wins today? He's 60 and the Tories will be in opposition, so he's not realistically going to be part of the plans when the Tories return at some point. Meanwhile, being Mayor is a serious job with real power.
    And if he loses? There is some even money available for Street on Betfair. Labour (who?) odds-on.
    If he loses then he might well fancy a little retirement number and would have personal reasons for wanting to be around Westminster during the week and in the Midlands at the weekend.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
    Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
    Laura K?

    You have gotta be kidding me.

    Jeez.

    She anchored the locals. It’s not a stretch to suggest she’ll do the GE too.

    She would be a really poor choice IMHO. But I can see it happening. The BBC seem to think she’s wonderful. She was pretty good back in the day on the Daily Politics, but I’m afraid she was not a fantastic political editor, and she should not have been given the Marr slot.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    Looks like I'll come out with a very small profit on voteshare band on Khan given he's slipped into the 40-45% band.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    CatMan said:

    City & East Results:

    Labour 108977
    Tory 38626
    Green 13256
    Lib Dem 7551
    Reform 6898

    2021 Results:

    Labour 99971
    Tory 58145

    No Gaza effect there.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Barnet & Camden

    Khan 70,984
    Hall 57,465
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Barnet & Camden Results:

    Labour 70984
    Tory 57465
    Green 9044
    Lib Dem 8480
    Reform 4*66

    2021 Results:

    Labour 67610
    Tory 65822
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
    Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
    Laura K?

    You have gotta be kidding me.

    Jeez.

    Just imagining her neutral expression when the exit poll comes out:

    image
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.

    Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.

    I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
    Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.

    This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    Brum:

    In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.

    Guarduan

    It looks very tight.

    Not sure what more data is available.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    I did tell you Andy Burnham would win Manchester...

    The King is back in office.
    On the dry side of the Pennines, so is the Queen.
    Massive drop in the Tory vote there too. Great result for Tracy Brabin.
    Over a 10% swing.

    Very nice.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360

    Brum:

    In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.

    Guarduan

    Maybe not. Solihull had a bundle check, and that was not remotely close.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    CatMan said:

    City & East Results:

    Labour 108977
    Tory 38626
    Green 13256
    Lib Dem 7551
    Reform 6898

    2021 Results:

    Labour 99971
    Tory 58145

    Very little sign of Gaza-inspired vote strikes in any of the London boroughs. Suggests to me that in two horse races that matter, for now, left wing voters will hold their noses and vote Labour.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Rumours (Harry Horton Lab sources) Tories have requested a recount in West Mids and its within 3000 votes, Street may well lose
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Solihull:

    Street 62.5%
    Parker 20.8%

    5% swing to Lab compared to 2021

    I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.

    100/1 for next con leader looks generous to me, in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Patel/Badenoch/Braverman’s all knock each other out and the sane wing of the Tory party prevails.
    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Solihull:

    Street 62.5%
    Parker 20.8%

    5% swing to Lab compared to 2021

    I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.

    100/1 for next con leader looks generous to me, in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Patel/Badenoch/Braverman’s all knock each other out and the sane wing of the Tory party prevails.
    I’d buy a ticket for that fight!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,901
    City of Troy is the Susan Hall of horseracing. Flopped at odds-on in the 2,000 Guineas won by Notable Speech.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    legatus said:

    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Solihull:

    Street 62.5%
    Parker 20.8%

    5% swing to Lab compared to 2021

    Lol, that's total knife edge, Street might be in trouble
    Except that Labour's Gaza problem wouldn't manifest itself very much in Solihull.
    Labour's running-a-shit-show in Birmingham is more of a problem.
    My back of the envelope calculation is that Labour will carry Birmingham by 25-30k, and that is probably not enough.
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Solihull:

    Street 62.5%
    Parker 20.8%

    5% swing to Lab compared to 2021

    Lol, that's total knife edge, Street might be in trouble
    Except that Labour's Gaza problem wouldn't manifest itself very much in Solihull.
    Labour's running-a-shit-show in Birmingham is more of a problem.
    My back of the envelope calculation is that Labour will carry Birmingham by 25-30k, and that is probably not enough.
    The Tory lead in Solihull was 23,500.
    In 2021, the Tory lead in Solihull was 32,400. So the Tory lead in Solihull fell by 8,900 compared to 2021.

    Over the whole West Midlands, in 2021 Street won by 47,000.

    So even though Solihull accounts for only 9.4% of the total votes cast in 2024, the Tories have already lost about 19% of their winning 2021 margin of 47,000.

    At face value, even allowing for a poor result for Labour in Birmingham, my reaction is that that looks bad for Street.

    Put another way, even if Labour only maintained its 2021 margin of 17,500 over the Conservatives in Birmingham, Labour only has to improve the margin by 7,800 in each of Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley, Sandwell and Coventry to get over the winning line. And the number of votes cast in 2024 in each of those five boroughs averaged about one-third more than the number cast in Solihull.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    TimS said:

    CatMan said:

    City & East Results:

    Labour 108977
    Tory 38626
    Green 13256
    Lib Dem 7551
    Reform 6898

    2021 Results:

    Labour 99971
    Tory 58145

    Very little sign of Gaza-inspired vote strikes in any of the London boroughs. Suggests to me that in two horse races that matter, for now, left wing voters will hold their noses and vote Labour.
    A lot of Greens have also voted Labour without the second preference vote.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    CatMan said:

    City & East Results:

    Labour 108977
    Tory 38626
    Green 13256
    Lib Dem 7551
    Reform 6898

    2021 Results:

    Labour 99971
    Tory 58145

    Does City and East include some of the bits where one might have expected Gaza effect swings against Labour?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
    Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
    Laura K?

    You have gotta be kidding me.

    Jeez.

    She anchored the locals. It’s not a stretch to suggest she’ll do the GE too.

    She would be a really poor choice IMHO. But I can see it happening. The BBC seem to think she’s wonderful. She was pretty good back in the day on the Daily Politics, but I’m afraid she was not a fantastic political editor, and she should not have been given the Marr slot.
    I have no issue with her
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Is this twitter site bona fide? I just don’t know what to believe any more with twitter / X? They keep posting up West Midlands results:

    https://twitter.com/GlobeElections


    What a prattish feed that is. Somebody making things up.
    To first approximation - a random Twatter account is indistinguishable from white noise. No data.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    TimS said:

    Meanwhile in the locals it’s LD 521, Con 509, so the Lib Dems have extended their lead and I think that probably seals it for them with one council still to announce.

    Pretty stunning result to beat the Tories on council seats. The total Tory losses at just shy of 500 are pretty much bang on what the pre-poll MRP suggested.

    Its a good result for the Lib Dems in several ways; more votes than forecast and distributed where they need to win under FPTP. Also now likely to give them a bit of a poll boost too given how much the media ignored them ahead of this election. So SED can be pretty chuffed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724

    Harry Horton
    @harry_horton
    ·
    10m
    NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.

    I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    Street now lengthening in Betfair. out to 6.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Brum:

    In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.

    Guarduan

    It looks very tight.

    Not sure what more data is available.
    A bit more from an ITV journo:

    NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.

    I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.


    https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Street out to 6 on BF

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
    Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
    Laura K?

    You have gotta be kidding me.

    Jeez.

    Just imagining her neutral expression when the exit poll comes out:

    image
    Doesn't quite reach the heights of crying and saying "What will we do?" reached by Unionist newsreaders in Scotland, live.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    Rumours (Harry Horton Lab sources) Tories have requested a recount in West Mids and its within 3000 votes, Street may well lose

    All the money is now against Street on Betfair so that might be true.

    It's possible he has just lost.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    edited May 4
    Croydon & Sutton

    Hall 78,790
    Khan 59,482

    Almost no change since 2021.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Croydon & Sutton Results:

    Tory 78790
    Labour 59482
    Lib Dem 14400
    Green 9740
    Reform 6518

    2021 Results:

    Tory 78368
    Labour 57317
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360


    Harry Horton
    @harry_horton
    ·
    10m
    NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.

    I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.

    If so, Labour have won it. 3,000 votes don’t get overhauled.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    If Street loses there may be an increase in pressure on Sunak.

    I think it’s been largely assumed that Street + Houchen were going to be the consolation prizes.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    algarkirk said:

    BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.

    Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.

    I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
    Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.

    This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
    I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558

    Rumours (Harry Horton Lab sources) Tories have requested a recount in West Mids and its within 3000 votes, Street may well lose

    All the money is now against Street on Betfair so that might be true.

    It's possible he has just lost.
    Ironic if he loses because of a swing to Labour in Solihull.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,383
    Gosh. Are we nearing the point where the Tories need to change their name to the Houchen and Harlow Party?
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    edited May 4
    A recount would mean that the votes right across the West Midlands have to be counted again - the fact that a candidate has comfortably carried a particular authority would not be relevant.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Sean_F said:


    Harry Horton
    @harry_horton
    ·
    10m
    NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.

    I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.

    If so, Labour have won it. 3,000 votes don’t get overhauled.
    The sting in the tail for the Tories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    The plot against Rishi could be back on if the only Tory success is Tees Valley.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
    Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
    Laura K?

    You have gotta be kidding me.

    Jeez.

    Just imagining her neutral expression when the exit poll comes out:

    image
    Doesn't quite reach the heights of crying and saying "What will we do?" reached by Unionist newsreaders in Scotland, live.
    :smiley:
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    Pro_Rata said:

    CatMan said:

    City & East Results:

    Labour 108977
    Tory 38626
    Green 13256
    Lib Dem 7551
    Reform 6898

    2021 Results:

    Labour 99971
    Tory 58145

    Does City and East include some of the bits where one might have expected Gaza effect swings against Labour?
    Yes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Andy_JS said:

    Rumours (Harry Horton Lab sources) Tories have requested a recount in West Mids and its within 3000 votes, Street may well lose

    All the money is now against Street on Betfair so that might be true.

    It's possible he has just lost.
    Ironic if he loses because of a swing to Labour in Solihull.
    "Darling, one must think of the poor occasionally."

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    Sean_F said:


    Harry Horton
    @harry_horton
    ·
    10m
    NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.

    I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.

    If so, Labour have won it. 3,000 votes don’t get overhauled.
    Yes, I think that's right.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited May 4
    algarkirk said:

    BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.

    Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.

    I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
    Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.

    This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
    The Boat Party of the Damned was 2010 GE. IIRC, Vine’s awful cowboy skit was for the local elections, maybe even the year before?

    But yes, both events were symptomatic of a sharp decline in the quality of BBC election night coverage. They have recovered a bit since, to be fair, though hardly spectacularly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    Brum:

    In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.

    Guarduan

    It looks very tight.

    Not sure what more data is available.
    A bit more from an ITV journo:

    NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.

    I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.


    https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
    One doesn’t ask for a recount if one’s ahead, does one? Grab the win with both hands, and give thanks.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    Andy_JS said:

    The plot against Rishi could be back on if the only Tory success is Tees Valley.

    If Street is even close, he’s done well against the swing in national polling.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534
    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    NeilVW said:

    Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?

    Clive Myrie?
    Has to be surely?
    I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
    Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
    Laura K?

    You have gotta be kidding me.

    Jeez.

    Just imagining her neutral expression when the exit poll comes out:

    image
    Doesn't quite reach the heights of crying and saying "What will we do?" reached by Unionist newsreaders in Scotland, live.
    Or the BBC and Sky presenters almost crying on the morning after the Brexit vote. That really was funny.
This discussion has been closed.