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How Betfair has been reacting over the last few days – politicalbetting.com
How Betfair has been reacting over the last few days – politicalbetting.com
At no point has Susan Hall been the favourite or close to becoming the favourite but it has been a bit frantic for some. Hopefully those who backed Susan Hall at long odds have been able to trade out for a profit.
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Not great is it?
However, I thought it would be much closer than it was and the polls would be out again.
I was wrong.
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?
My aborted trip to put £10 on Hall to win LM is the second time logistics prevented me from making an impulse bet, with the first being Mme. LePen coming first in the first round in POTFR2022. Both were arguably a good bet at the time, but the imposed pause showed them not to be.
In short, well done you. I would have gotten it wrong.
Labour 54481
Tory 43405
Lib Dem 7663
Green 5984
Reform 3478
Example from LDV:
Results will be announced this afternoon in this order: Mayor of London, London Assembly constituency members, London-wide Assembly members (from the top up lists). We already know that turnout was 40.5%. Previous turnouts have varied from 34% to 46%, so there is nothing particularly surprising in that figure.
Lib Dem interest is focussed on the SW London Constituency (Richmond, Kingston and Hounslow) which we are hoping to win. If we do then it will be the first ever constituency win for us.
Clearly I have a bit of reading to do.
You ain't seen me, right.
Perhaps like I said many months ago, ULEZ is not a problem for voters that actually live in London.
Labour 127455
Tory 34099
Green 17907
Lib Dem 7399
Reform 4485
The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.
I am still up on all my bets, but not nearly by the £400 I thought this morning.
Darn.
But to have a swing of 5% on his third go, something to be said for how bad the Tory is, or perhaps his unpopularity has been a touch overstated? My view of Khan is "meh", as I believe is most Londoners.
Also, I think people think Khan will work better with SKS, so that probably helps a touch on the margins too.
Khan by a landslide.
Worth looking back at the utter partisan drivel masquerading as analysis on here the last 48 hours. Embarrassing.
I also made it clear at the start of my reply to you that Labour's position should be "primarily based on what is morally and ethically right" and that is why I am so appalled with Starmer. It was you that sought to justify Starmer's actions in political terms (".... But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters"). Only in order to debunk those claims of yours did I point out the actual political consequences in my reply.
The people cacking themselves were the lefty likes of @SouthamObserver et al, going into a nervous breakdown and claming Hall had got it
For example, I commend Nigel Farage on sticking with Brexit for so long despite my vocal opposition to it. That is commendable in anyone.
Doing in what you believe.
That said, I also wonder whether Trumpism has infected Hall’s campaign. By that, I mean Trump just always says he’s won because reality doesn’t matter to Trump, and losing is for losers. The Hall campaign had already felt disconnected from reality, and this is just more of that.
I think those are more likely explanations than a deliberate attempt to distract people from Tory losses elsewhere, as others have suggested.
The next question is why anyone believed these Con staffers. Is that about hope (they really want Hall to win)? Is that about pessimism (they really want Hall to lose, but are consumed by worry)? Is that because we’re attracted to the more interesting story (Khan winning is boring and everyone loves a surprise result)? Do people like to think of themselves as going against the herd and spotting a great bet?
She's an experienced and very senior journalist, she tweeted like a teen. Tut
Turnout in Doncaster was 21%, partially because there were no council elections and partially because the whole mayor thing is seen as a Sheffield cabal.
Overall turnout was 27% thanks to a 33% turnout in Sheffield.
I think you're slightly falling into the expectations game. Aren't we actually about where most people expected this time last week, and before a flurry of rumours yesterday?
There’s nothing really about these locals and mayoralities that is out of kilter with the national opinion polls.
"A suspected illegal XL Bully breeding farm has been raided by police in Sheffield.
A total of 22 animals were seized from an allotment, including mothers and pups, in what officers described as "appalling conditions".
A South Yorkshire Police spokesperson said six of the animals were so unwell they were put to sleep."
Personally I was pretty convinced the result would be tighter than the polls, though Susan winning seemed unlikely. In the end it looks as if if won’t even be tighter than the polls.
Stephen Bush is apparently an associate editor at the Financial Times. Adam Bienkov also a legit journalist. Just to take the tweeters from the last header.
Maybe Bienkov was duped by his "source close to Khan", but isn't it Stephen Bush's own analysis?
I'm not saying journalists are beyond suspicion, but it does seem a bit unlikely for a successful journo to get involved in such a scheme. Can't have been much liquidity to play with anyway?
The rumours were nonsense, I was always confident he'd win again by a smallish margin based on his record being middling to poor at best. So in a way the swing represents the view of Londonders: "he is meh". The YouGov poll seemed out of line with my experience in London but the Savanta (?) poll seemed about "right" to me.
A decent candidate would take him to the cleaners. I'd have voted for Stewart over him any day.
In future I will try to use my great power for good.
In an attempt to turn this into a teachable moment, we now have confirmed that tweets and whatnot are not reliable data and you have to wait for facts on the ground. We also confirm that I can bounce around like a kid on Sunny D on election night ("Oh my God! Oh my Godd!!!"). I will take this lesson to heart and not repeat it. Honest. Really...
(narrator: the POTUS2024 election is in November)
Labour 77011
Tory 68856
Lib Dem 25579
Green 10132
Reform 6634
Looks like the early rumours were rubbish and he will be re elected. Not by a huge landslide but a clear margin.
It seems Khan has made inroads into more middle class and wealthy areas of London like Richmond Park, Kingston upon Thames and Chiswick and Wandsworth and the West End to make up for losses in more white working class areas like Bexley to Hall
Tory 77012
Labour 73939
(1) Shaun Bailey overperformed last time, despite being a poor candidate, and the polls were way out
(2) The Conservatives won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, against the odds, due to ULEZ
(3) Khan was the incumbent, it was his third term, and plenty don't particularly like him
(4) Mayoral elections are often about individuals more than parties
(5) Campaign centres were putting out warnings about turnout where the wording suggested they were aimed at their base, normally not a sign of confidence
(6) Turnout figures this morning showed a slump in core Khan areas and a slight increase in Conservative areas - showing Gaza might have depressed his core vote
(7) We had a couple of mainstream journalists, like Stephen Bush, suggest it was close - might have information- on top of Susan Hall tweets
(8) Khan could be laid at 1.02/1.03, which was far too short - given the above, and there was a chance an upset could be there
Would I make the same bet again?
Absolutely, and it's only one I placed in the last 72 hours. The polls look like they will turn out on this one to be right, but they haven't always been in the past and they might not be so again in the future.
Remember the confident “Treasury Insider” who was telling journalists that there was going to be no COVID support? 10 minutes before Sunak stood up in the Commons
If it’s a bit of fun speculation and some people can make money on trading bets, fine, but when we have malicious actors undermining democracy, I think there’s a danger that the speculation becomes fuel for their lies.
I also don’t believe the hype when it comes to the “No Overall Gov” for Labour. It’s in the media’s interest to suggest that the GE will still be a fight, because it allows them to spend hours blowing hot air into the ether as if to suggest their opinions are important (see all the commentators who wanted to make the mayoral race interesting by suggesting Hall had a shot). Tories are polling at their worst in decades and could reach a point where they are statistically tied with RefUK. At that point you could have a full extinction event - where neither Ref nor Tories get any MPs and Labour have Baathist numbers in parliament.
Does Hall have sny supporters here?
This evening's thread header will comprise of a list of rampers, and proposals for appropriate sanctions.
Chris Mason
Political editor
BBCCopyright: BBC
Hello from me in Birmingham, where it looks like all the counting has already finished.
There are about half a dozen count centres around the region and there won’t be a formal result until they’re all done.
Both the Conservatives and Labour claim the result here is "on a knife edge" but it’s Labour who are sounding more pessimistic.
A Conservative win here - a victory for Andy Street - would be a helpful psychological fillip for Rishi Sunak.
We're expecting a result at 14:30. Stay tune
Labour 82725
Tory 41389
Green 11799
Lib Dem 7947
Reform 4969
On the voteshare it got on Thursday nationally Labour would win most seats but not have a big enough lead over the Tories for a majority.
LD and Independent voters locally are likely to be comfortable with Starmer as PM but still wary of the influence of the left and the remaining Corbynites within Labour still. They are not quite ready to trust Starmer Labour in the way they trusted Blair who had truly transformed Labour into New Labour and won local elections by a huge margin pre 1997.
So Sunak if he can create fear of the left and squeeze Reform still has a chance of getting a hung parliament or small Labour majority even if Labour win most seats and Starmer becomes PM
(2) The Conservatives won Uxbridge, but again it’s not a binary thing, it’s by about how much. The Conservatives just held Uxbridge with a substantial swing against them. Hall needed a swing to her, and Uxbridge never predicted that.
(3) What’s the best evidence of how many like Khan? The polling. What did the polling say: he’d win.
(5) There was a strong incentive for Labour to warn against turnout because every Labour vote counts for the concurrent Assembly election.
(6) Turnout figures were slightly favourable for Hall compared to 2021, but that turnout in 2021 would still have seen Khan win.
(7) Stephen Bush should be embarrassed.
Labour 74646
Tory 48101
"In Birmingham, Conservative sources say it's too close to call
Rajini Vaidyanathan
Reporting from Birmingham
Here at the International Convention Centre in the middle of Birmingham, counting has now finished.
For hours staff sat at trestle tables loaded with black boxes, sifting through piles of yellow ballot papers. Now they – and we wait – for that final result.
It’s one of the most anticipated results of these elections. Conservative incumbent Andy Street - who has somewhat distanced himself from the national party through this campaign - is hoping he can secure a third term.
Labour’s Richard Parker is hoping to pull off a big coup for his party by unseating “Brand Andy”.
Sources close to Andy Street tell me this race is “genuinely too close to call”. It’s a similar mantra from Labour here who say, "this is neck and neck".
The result is key for both PM Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
For Sunak it could be a bright spot after some disappointing results - for Starmer a win in this key region ahead of a general election would give his party further momentum as we head towards a general election."
We did have some quite spectacular ramping though. One seasoned poster (I won’t name them) wrote this:
“I’ve been saying for months that Khan could lose and I strongly suspect that he will. If he holds on it will only because the Tories chose such a poor candidate. Anyone half decent and it would not even have been in doubt.”
In the words of Luke Skywalker, not one single word of that statement is correct.
My brother was probably pretty typical of many an outer Londoner. Was very cross about ulez at the time. Doesn’t much care for Khan. But he still voted for him. Why? Because end of the day 'he’s doing an okay job, ulez is yesterday’s fight,' and he ‘could not vote for the current tory party.'
I am not saying you fall into this camp, and yes, I have been prone to making generalisations on a complex issue. No personal insult intended.
I am sure we could discuss this in a more nuanced way f2f than is possible via a series of online posts.
It’s key for neither.
As to whether it will be a five percent swing, want to see Havering/Redbridge and Brom/Bex first...
1) how wrong would the polls have to be? Have they ever been that wrong in an election
2) Hall is objectively worse at politics than Bailey.
3) while there is a personal element to Mayoral voting, Hall isn’t a big beast. Khan isn’t either
End result estimation:
Sadiq Khan: 46%
Susan Hall: 32%
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786748175061053872
I'd say a 14 point win on your third go is quite fair but what do I know? Perhaps we should try and understand why Khan has done it, rather than just "it's the Tories", "ULEZ is rubbish" etc. He's got something, I am not quite sure what it is.
Perhaps the Tories should actually try.