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MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com
MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com
We've used MRP to call 16 key local authority battlegrounds at the coming local elections – we predict significant Tory losses to LabourYou can see our calls in the chart below, and read more detailed analysis from @PME_Politics here: https://t.co/BpN5k8XcOJ pic.twitter.com/cKZywoi7GC
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Like the Tories.
I'd forgotten about Blackpool South, in this climate that was always going to be hopeless.
I have a feeling in my bones the Tories will do better than that. Based on recent council by-elections where they’ve had a few surprising holds and even a couple of gains, and based on the fact the mystical 10-15% Reform vote (which is just disgruntled Tories) has nowhere to go today except back home.
Con -300
Lab +140
LD + 90
Green +30
Other +40
West Oxfordshire and Cherwell both looking good for the LibDems, but West might fall short of a majority (hard to call) and Cherwell will certainly remain NOC.
Could be a bloodbath this time?
The abandoned ex-hoverport is an atmospheric place for sure.
What do you find strange about it, Andy_JS?
EDIT: Ah, found it in the table.
Not until Saturday lunchtime? Disappointing.
https://x.com/shitbritishpics/status/1786138595100615000?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1786140409539792975?s=46
Interesting.
VERY interesting.
On the door "have you got ID".
At the desk "please show me your ID".
This seems wise as a preparation for the General Election where there will be a *lot* more people coming in. Given that it will still be Rishi Sunk's Government, we can presumably expect confusion in some degree.
We had a discussion whilst I was voting about the precedent of using a penis as a mark, whilst also talking about volunteering etc.
The suggestion was made that were I to volunteer I should not ask that of the interviewer as my first question.
Six candidates for mayor, incidentally.
One thing often forgotten about Mr Political Job in Nottinghamshire Ben Bradley is that he is only 34. Even Zadrozny is only 44.
Also, elections by thirds. As of yesterday, 2/3 of the council was elected before the fiasco became clear.
That tracks. It was the case last time as well, and this time the Khan is predicted to be even further ahead than then, so 'closer than expected' covers a wider range.
>=500: 2.00;
<500: 1.66.
Oh and my romantic weekend break starts tomorrow.
Khan and Hall will be within 5% of each other in London.
But I think the Tories will generally do crap in most places.
Just.
Based upon my guessing stick.
Confident there or results elsewhere look underwhelming?
Btw we don’t mean losses do we, we mean NET on balance sheet? Because to lose 500 but win 100 is only 400 losses? This is important because the Tories will be winning seats in places as well as losing. Councils not in their control have made unpopular decisions. Watch for the amount of Conservative wins keeping the net loss in the 300s
Not sounding worried about reform in Blackpool (yet)
LDs happy in battles direct with Cons
(I believing losing that many may not even be possible?)
CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
Different geography.
Am hoping it remains obscured for some long priced constituency betting at GE time.
This is why PB should go into nights like this with up front agreement on NEV and PNS par score, because it padlocks the door to the spin room. Starmer needs a NEV and PNS of 40% imo, 4 points down on his national polling and six behind Blair.
It's why I never bought it when Bercow or whoever claimed the public don't like the bearpit and pettiness of PMQs. If they didn't like it, or at least cared enough to dislike it, the politicians would change their approach quickly.
I don't know if they do area counts for Mayor then add up.
I'm told there's some sort of count happening at Kirkby-in-Ashfield, but that must be a sub-count, surely?
They've confused the biggest city in the UK with Middlesborough
NY unitary, 2022, 40k Con majority over Lab with 26k LDs to factor in.
This Saturday counting nonsense has to be stopped, though. Democracy delayed is democracy denied!
Are they all too nesh to stay up until 4am?
I'm just going to imagine Susan Hall beating Sadiq Khan. Nope. Can't do it.
My take is that there existed an opportunity to create a new centre right voter coalition (including for example the Red Wall), but following a failure to do so, and cynicism about that failure, a whirlwind is being reaped.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?