FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Why don't you stop lecturing people on what they can and can't say, duck, as they say in south Derbyshire.
My current feeling about the West Midlands mayoral election, informed of weeks of doorknocking: - Street will win by a margin of around 5%, thanks to split ticket voting by those voting Lab in the local/PCC elections, plus the impact of the independent candidate Yakoob. - Yakoob will pick up about 5% of the total vote after a very visible campaign in areas with significant Muslim populations.
Glorious George predicted on Tuesday that Yakoob would cost Labour the Mayoralty......
For the first time in 49 years, the candidate I favour in an election being held today is the Labour Party candidate. Burnham. Seriously. I genuinely think he has the right priorities, and he genuinely seems to be trying to minimise the tribal stuff (as much as he can - clearly some of it is hardwired). And he genuinely seems to like his city and his electorate. He does the boosterism properly, which is a big job of a metro mayor. Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
Oh, go on. It'll be something to tell the grandchildren...
Has anyone seen the video of the chap stopped by the police in the USA because his kayak stuck out too far from the top of his car without a flag on it. He refused or couldn't produce some paperwork and wouldn't wind down his window so the policeman asked him to get out the car. He refused. The policeman was so taken aback he said credulously 'Excuse me?' Up to now this was quite civilised. The policeman threatened to smash the window to remove him and did so when he still wouldn't comply.. The driver then started praying to his god for help - His god being Donald Trump.
Some people are beyond help. Who the hell prays to Donald Trump.
Do you have a link? My Google-fu isn’t working this morning
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
I've been had I think you're both right. I mean she has moved herself onto the list of posters I never engage with or respond to directly so now it matters not to me but yes good call about her.
I am, however, interested whenever people invoke concepts such as "British" or "un-British" and believe it needs further dissection even if other posters on here might think that discussing racist tropes is "pearl clutching".
Conservative Prime Minister doesn't care about poor people = 'un-British'. Ha ha ha. All the proper British Conservative Prime Ministers we used to have cared more about poor people than about their own mothers, as I remember. Of course it's racist. And moronic.
What idiot thinks calling it racist is 'pearl clutching'?
Some buffoon called Ben.
Irony is she comes back this morning and is the one to start banging on about it again in a new thread.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
I never had you down as a lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic. If nothing else, with apologies, I don't really consider Selby 'metropolitan'.
The penny has just dropped that Selebian means someone from Selby.
Selby's only about 10 miles east of me but it's somewhere I go very, very infrequently. I suppose because it's in a different county - the focus was always west to the bright lights of Pontefract and Wakefield and, if you're particularly fond of travelling to far flung exotic locales, that Leeds.
But I agree, I don't think Selby's particularly metropolitan.
Probably not this day though. Not enough candidates.
The Economist article points out that Reform isn´t really a party: no real membership, no councils, indeed few to no councillors, and only one MP (Lee Anderthal), no MSPs, members of the Senate etc etc.
They can not campaign on the ground, just relying on the media for the air war. So, I think they only thing the Reform poll rating gives is the proxy for Tory abstentions.
So it may be that the Lib Dems, who are the anti-Reform: lots of members, councils, councillors, MPS, Lords etc, actually see a boost in the air war after results in the ground war. That momentum could be more threatening to a lot more Tory seats than Reform...
Well, we will see what the coming three days bring, but I suspect nothing good for the Tories.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
In truth we're all creations on here.
I prefer
We are all just prisoners here Of our own device.
We can check out but we can never leave.
I am listening to that at the very moment. I do listen to it about 15 times a day on Spotify.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
I've been had I think you're both right. I mean she has moved herself onto the list of posters I never engage with or respond to directly so now it matters not to me but yes good call about her.
I am, however, interested whenever people invoke concepts such as "British" or "un-British" and believe it needs further dissection even if other posters on here might think that discussing racist tropes is "pearl clutching".
Conservative Prime Minister doesn't care about poor people = 'un-British'. Ha ha ha. All the proper British Conservative Prime Ministers we used to have cared more about poor people than about their own mothers, as I remember. Of course it's racist. And moronic.
What idiot thinks calling it racist is 'pearl clutching'?
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
Spot on.
Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
SHOCKED - but only if you're voting for Suze.
I voted for Skaith (may have considered other options in first round if it wasn't FPTP).
Ah ok - so you're a right-on lefty 'in the sticks' liberal elite academic then. Excellent thing to be.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
Brave. You'd better hope Hall doesn't win by one vote.
Well, I figure that London stuff doesn't affect me too much in God's Own County. I guess that's why I wasn't given a vote
Ah, a West Yorkshire Metropolitan, not a metropolitan metropolitan!
West Yorkshire? With Leeds and the like?
I'll have you know I'm in North Yorkshire thank you very much (Although the boundary is a bit odd - NYorks loops down to incorporate Selby and surrounding villages, they're so good)
Sorry - geography bit hazy, much more familiar with York, Whitby and Scarboro ...
News from Cumbria. As a local authority unit this no longer exists, and our no local election 2nd May is for Cumberland, revived recently from the dead, though with changed boundaries. (Penrith is now in Westmorland.
However confusingly we have a PCC election for Cumbria police commissioner. The big news is that because of this thrilling contest the craft club in the village is unable to meet, the village hall being taken over for this purpose. The severe cost of rural democracy.
I have a vote in this too. Our village hall, which I can see from my living room is being used for this too and, so far, Apathy will be the big winner. I may toddle down there later. Round here policemen or women are as rare as hen's teeth. The last time I saw one was during Covid.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
Spot on.
Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
Very little comment on here on the fucking disgraceful video published on the Home Office X account yesterday of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and put in the back of vans in preparation of their deportation to Rwanda.
Surely this should not be allowed? It's absolutely blatant electioneering (of the gutter brand) by a government department the day before the elections. Doesn't this break all sorts of purdah rules and, even if not, isn't it deeply inappropriate for the HO to openly campaign on behalf of the Tory Party?
The handcuffs were particularly depressing . These people haven’t robbed a bank or committed a violent crime . The Tories are just a cesspit of hate, division and cruelty . I’ve never loathed a party as much as I do the current bunch in no 10 .
I don't think this is just the Tories. The Home Office seems to delight in this sort of "tough" approach. They are very willing accomplices. As they were with the hostile environment and the famously sympathetic treatment of the Windrush cohort.
Contrast with HMRC who by and large rein it in despite copious material they could use if they wished. They consider this sort of blatant showing off rather infra dig.
Meanwhile, the FDA union, representing the senior civil servants, are trying to get a judicial review of the Rwanda policy, because they don’t want to be forced to implement the legislation passed by Parliament.
Can we please give @Heathener a break. This is bullying.
Worse, this is stuff that should have stayed on the last thread. We should ban FPT posts. If you've not convinced anyone about the sanctity of AV for Scottish subsamples in your 17 posts on the last thread, forget it and move on.
Had a glossy leaflet drop through the letterbox yesterday about the shiny new East Midlands Combined Authority Mayor sent by officers of the same.
The first couple of pages were taken up with how to get a postal vote. Given the leaflet arrived some time after the deadline to apply for a postal vote, it didn't immediately impress me with the competency of those running said combined authority.
There was a page about voter ID, listing all the acceptable forms, and also some stuff on how to fill in the ballot paper (fair enough).
Then it was on to the real meat of the publication, pages from each candidate. Based on their ability to send in artwork at the correct resolution and format, this was a clear win for the Tories, Reform and the Independent, and a particularly poor effort by the Green (quite badly pixelated).
Moving on to policy, we got large helpings of motherhood and apple pie (virtually everyone is apparently going to fix the potholes - the independent's text implying his skillset was to go off and personally start shoveling tarmac). Allmost all of them want more government money to spend on local transport etc etc. It wasn't really possible to gauge what the independent was intending to do, other than be independent. That possibly cost him my vote - if he'd actually got some policies (beyond fixing potholes) I would have at least considered if he might be suitable. The only person with an agenda beyond motherhood, apple pie and more government money was the Refom candidate, who devoted his page to saying he thought the combined authority is a stupid idea nobody other than politicians wanted and he would like to abolish it. I suspect he's a loon (a quick Google suggests he's a "colourful" character , but on the basis that I entirely agree with him about the pointlessness of it all, I think he's getting my vote.
I voted for Bradley, he's perhaps Ward's only realistic challenger and he's said he won't (Mainly because Ward will win) introduce a mayoral precept.
Voted Godden for the PCC, Henry needs to go and I can't see Ward (LD) doing much.
How many jobs does Bradley want? He's MP, he's also leader of the county council, and now he wants to be mayor as well!
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
Spot on.
Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
For the first time in 49 years, the candidate I favour in an election being held today is the Labour Party candidate. Burnham. Seriously. I genuinely think he has the right priorities, and he genuinely seems to be trying to minimise the tribal stuff (as much as he can - clearly some of it is hardwired). And he genuinely seems to like his city and his electorate. He does the boosterism properly, which is a big job of a metro mayor. Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
Here in the Flatlands, I'm not sure who I'm going to vote for yet, if anyone. In this self-declared 'People's Republic' Oliver Coppard (who?) will win by a mile and there are no local elections.
I don't think he's up to much but none of the other candidates are either. We need a proper local champion in the style of Andy Burnham but we aren't going to get one.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
SHOCKED - but only if you're voting for Suze.
I voted for Skaith (may have considered other options in first round if it wasn't FPTP).
Hopefully after Binface's momentous victory in London he will be able to expand and stand rubbish candidates nationally.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
@Leon - On an entirely separate subject - related to recent discussions on the subject of the numinous - my daughter bought me a book today. Almost makes me wonder if she is stalking my conversations on here:
650 noomy places. It's very lovely, anyway. You will be interested to know that there is an entire chapter on West Cornwall, which is as much as Lancashire and Yorkshire get combined.
Fantastic
And good call on Cornwall. West Cornwall in particular is one of the noomiest places on earth - eg the cliff side tin mines of Botallack. They are fantastically beautiful and spectacular, at the same time you know that their shafts go down to horrifying undersea tunnels where men and boys toiled naked hewing tin, with the constant threat of drowning from the booming seas above. During great storms the men would stop work and listen to the rolling boulders overhead
Noom factor 8.9
Been there, and down there (albeit the demo tin mine at Camborne, many years ago ... ).
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
I never had you down as a lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic. If nothing else, with apologies, I don't really consider Selby 'metropolitan'.
The penny has just dropped that Selebian means someone from Selby.
Selby's only about 10 miles east of me but it's somewhere I go very, very infrequently. I suppose because it's in a different county - the focus was always west to the bright lights of Pontefract and Wakefield and, if you're particularly fond of travelling to far flung exotic locales, that Leeds.
But I agree, I don't think Selby's particularly metropolitan.
To be honest, Selebian had been posting for about a year before it clicked with me either. It's a pleasingly not-entirely-obvious demonym which once you spot it is consistently enjoyable.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
SHOCKED - but only if you're voting for Suze.
I voted for Skaith (may have considered other options in first round if it wasn't FPTP).
Hopefully after Binface's momentous victory in London he will be able to expand and stand rubbish candidates nationally.
Day before yesterday I went to Mont St Michel for the first time. Of course I compared it to St Michael’s Mount (the latter was actually a monastic satellite of the former for a while). I know the Cornish one really well, I once took tea with Lord and Lady St Levan, in the castle, and found it very hard not to mention Edward St Aubyn and his *interesting backstory*. But I managed it
Anyway the French version is much more impressive in several ways - it’s a lot bigger. It’s more architecturally harmonious and beautiful. It is imposing in a way the Cornish one is not
On the other hand the Cornish version is properly surrounded by tidal waters, and it has an even more interesting history - it’s probably the isle of Ictis mentioned by classical scholars as the tin trading island of the Phoenicians - Cornwall’s tin industry is at least 3000 years old
More importantly the Cornish one has a ton of noom and the French one has about zero (after your first gobsmacked initial approach). Why? The trillions of tourists don’t help at all, but also the French one has that classic french noomlessness. Someone rubbed away the patina. There is no mad aristocratic family with a known history of incestuous father rapists living in one of the towers
Probably not this day though. Not enough candidates.
The Economist article points out that Reform isn´t really a party: no real membership, no councils, indeed few to no councillors, and only one MP (Lee Anderthal), no MSPs, members of the Senate etc etc.
They can not campaign on the ground, just relying on the media for the air war. So, I think they only thing the Reform poll rating gives is the proxy for Tory abstentions.
So it may be that the Lib Dems, who are the anti-Reform: lots of members, councils, councillors, MPS, Lords etc, actually see a boost in the air war after results in the ground war. That momentum could be more threatening to a lot more Tory seats than Reform...
Well, we will see what the coming three days bring, but I suspect nothing good for the Tories.
Except Reform largely take Tory votes, LDs take Labour as much as Tory votes.
If Reform fall back in the polls next week after the local elections and the LDs are slightly up I doubt CCHQ will be too unhappy
Very little comment on here on the fucking disgraceful video published on the Home Office X account yesterday of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and put in the back of vans in preparation of their deportation to Rwanda.
Surely this should not be allowed? It's absolutely blatant electioneering (of the gutter brand) by a government department the day before the elections. Doesn't this break all sorts of purdah rules and, even if not, isn't it deeply inappropriate for the HO to openly campaign on behalf of the Tory Party?
The handcuffs were particularly depressing . These people haven’t robbed a bank or committed a violent crime . The Tories are just a cesspit of hate, division and cruelty . I’ve never loathed a party as much as I do the current bunch in no 10 .
I don't think this is just the Tories. The Home Office seems to delight in this sort of "tough" approach. They are very willing accomplices. As they were with the hostile environment and the famously sympathetic treatment of the Windrush cohort.
Contrast with HMRC who by and large rein it in despite copious material they could use if they wished. They consider this sort of blatant showing off rather infra dig.
Meanwhile, the FDA union, representing the senior civil servants, are trying to get a judicial review of the Rwanda policy, because they don’t want to be forced to implement the legislation passed by Parliament.
Had a glossy leaflet drop through the letterbox yesterday about the shiny new East Midlands Combined Authority Mayor sent by officers of the same.
The first couple of pages were taken up with how to get a postal vote. Given the leaflet arrived some time after the deadline to apply for a postal vote, it didn't immediately impress me with the competency of those running said combined authority.
There was a page about voter ID, listing all the acceptable forms, and also some stuff on how to fill in the ballot paper (fair enough).
Then it was on to the real meat of the publication, pages from each candidate. Based on their ability to send in artwork at the correct resolution and format, this was a clear win for the Tories, Reform and the Independent, and a particularly poor effort by the Green (quite badly pixelated).
Moving on to policy, we got large helpings of motherhood and apple pie (virtually everyone is apparently going to fix the potholes - the independent's text implying his skillset was to go off and personally start shoveling tarmac). Allmost all of them want more government money to spend on local transport etc etc. It wasn't really possible to gauge what the independent was intending to do, other than be independent. That possibly cost him my vote - if he'd actually got some policies (beyond fixing potholes) I would have at least considered if he might be suitable. The only person with an agenda beyond motherhood, apple pie and more government money was the Refom candidate, who devoted his page to saying he thought the combined authority is a stupid idea nobody other than politicians wanted and he would like to abolish it. I suspect he's a loon (a quick Google suggests he's a "colourful" character , but on the basis that I entirely agree with him about the pointlessness of it all, I think he's getting my vote.
I voted for Bradley, he's perhaps Ward's only realistic challenger and he's said he won't (Mainly because Ward will win) introduce a mayoral precept.
Voted Godden for the PCC, Henry needs to go and I can't see Ward (LD) doing much.
How many jobs does Bradley want? He's MP, he's also leader of the county council, and now he wants to be mayor as well!
Aspects of the US approach to separation of powers occasionally seem appealing.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Yeah, I know, just a bit depressed as it's gone on too long now.
I suspect there's more chance of a record-breaking hot summer as we're bound to have a long spell of high-pressure at some stage. I look forward to Leon telling us how millions will die in bubbling tarmac as UK temperatures reach 60°C.
A model run showing all Grandads being forced to remove their tank top and stop Gardening by 11.30 is needed
Round here the Grandads dance Northern Soul, which venue is where my polling station was this morning.
Though TBF I have yet to see evidence of Lee Anderson MP doing a handspring or twizzle at 2am, after pints having taken.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
@Leon - On an entirely separate subject - related to recent discussions on the subject of the numinous - my daughter bought me a book today. Almost makes me wonder if she is stalking my conversations on here:
650 noomy places. It's very lovely, anyway. You will be interested to know that there is an entire chapter on West Cornwall, which is as much as Lancashire and Yorkshire get combined.
Fantastic
And good call on Cornwall. West Cornwall in particular is one of the noomiest places on earth - eg the cliff side tin mines of Botallack. They are fantastically beautiful and spectacular, at the same time you know that their shafts go down to horrifying undersea tunnels where men and boys toiled naked hewing tin, with the constant threat of drowning from the booming seas above. During great storms the men would stop work and listen to the rolling boulders overhead
Noom factor 8.9
I assume your hit parade includes this from your neck of the woods? Garway Church. Always does it for me. Our family used to have a small cottage a few miles away. Indeed the whole area oozes it.
For the first time in 49 years, the candidate I favour in an election being held today is the Labour Party candidate. Burnham. Seriously. I genuinely think he has the right priorities, and he genuinely seems to be trying to minimise the tribal stuff (as much as he can - clearly some of it is hardwired). And he genuinely seems to like his city and his electorate. He does the boosterism properly, which is a big job of a metro mayor. Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
Where these metro mayors work is where they easily ascend above party politics and narrow ideological dogma. Burnham does that, as does Street.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
In truth we're all creations on here.
I prefer
We are all just prisoners here Of our own device.
We can check out but we can never leave.
I am listening to that at the very moment. I do listen to it about 15 times a day on Spotify.
Felder and Walsh's guitar work is brilliant.
I ought to be the target demographic for this song and I like a lot of 70s US rock music but there's something about this song that I really can't get on board with. And it's so bloody long!
Probably not this day though. Not enough candidates.
The Economist article points out that Reform isn´t really a party: no real membership, no councils, indeed few to no councillors, and only one MP (Lee Anderthal), no MSPs, members of the Senate etc etc.
They can not campaign on the ground, just relying on the media for the air war. So, I think they only thing the Reform poll rating gives is the proxy for Tory abstentions.
So it may be that the Lib Dems, who are the anti-Reform: lots of members, councils, councillors, MPS, Lords etc, actually see a boost in the air war after results in the ground war. That momentum could be more threatening to a lot more Tory seats than Reform...
Well, we will see what the coming three days bring, but I suspect nothing good for the Tories.
One of the things the Lib Dems lost when they went into government was the None Of The Above vote, because they became one of the Above. This vote was hoovered up by UKIP (and now Reform), which is one reason why the Farage party du jour is strong in former areas of Lib Dems strength like the south west and Wales.
If the Lib Dems have an unexpectedly strong performance in the locals then it would be a sign that they are attracting the NOTA votes again, at least when Reform don't stand candidates.
For the first time in 49 years, the candidate I favour in an election being held today is the Labour Party candidate. Burnham. Seriously. I genuinely think he has the right priorities, and he genuinely seems to be trying to minimise the tribal stuff (as much as he can - clearly some of it is hardwired). And he genuinely seems to like his city and his electorate. He does the boosterism properly, which is a big job of a metro mayor. Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
Where these metro mayors work is where they easily ascend above party politics and narrow ideological dogma. Burnham does that, as does Street.
Then we have someone like Houchen, who doesn't...
Do you have any views on Kim McGuinness ? Being ex North East.
Can we please give @Heathener a break. This is bullying.
Worse, this is stuff that should have stayed on the last thread. We should ban FPT posts. If you've not convinced anyone about the sanctity of AV for Scottish subsamples in your 17 posts on the last thread, forget it and move on.
She posted about it on this thread. Take it up with her.
Day before yesterday I went to Mont St Michel for the first time. Of course I compared it to St Michael’s Mount (the latter was actually a monastic satellite of the former for a while). I know the Cornish one really well, I once took tea with Lord and Lady St Levan, in the castle, and found it very hard not to mention Edward St Aubyn and his *interesting backstory*. But I managed it
Anyway the French version is much more impressive in several ways - it’s a lot bigger. It’s more architecturally harmonious and beautiful. It is imposing in a way the Cornish one is not
On the other hand the Cornish version is properly surrounded by tidal waters, and it has an even more interesting history - it’s probably the isle of Ictis mentioned by classical scholars as the tin trading island of the Phoenicians - Cornwall’s tin industry is at least 3000 years old
More importantly the Cornish one has a ton of noom and the French one has about zero (after your first gobsmacked initial approach). Why? The trillions of tourists don’t help at all, but also the French one has that classic french noomlessness. Someone rubbed away the patina. There is no mad aristocratic family with a known history of incestuous father rapists living in one of the towers
Voila, c’est sans Noom
I found it very difficult to eat figs for a while afterwards.
For the first time in 49 years, the candidate I favour in an election being held today is the Labour Party candidate. Burnham. Seriously. I genuinely think he has the right priorities, and he genuinely seems to be trying to minimise the tribal stuff (as much as he can - clearly some of it is hardwired). And he genuinely seems to like his city and his electorate. He does the boosterism properly, which is a big job of a metro mayor. Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
Where these metro mayors work is where they easily ascend above party politics and narrow ideological dogma. Burnham does that, as does Street.
Then we have someone like Houchen, who doesn't...
Do you have any views on Kim McGuinness ? Being ex North East.
Does "who?" provide you with a sufficient answer?
Is this the expanded North of Tyne mayoralty which has the Corbynite incumbent?
Day before yesterday I went to Mont St Michel for the first time. Of course I compared it to St Michael’s Mount (the latter was actually a monastic satellite of the former for a while). I know the Cornish one really well, I once took tea with Lord and Lady St Levan, in the castle, and found it very hard not to mention Edward St Aubyn and his *interesting backstory*. But I managed it
Anyway the French version is much more impressive in several ways - it’s a lot bigger. It’s more architecturally harmonious and beautiful. It is imposing in a way the Cornish one is not
On the other hand the Cornish version is properly surrounded by tidal waters, and it has an even more interesting history - it’s probably the isle of Ictis mentioned by classical scholars as the tin trading island of the Phoenicians - Cornwall’s tin industry is at least 3000 years old
More importantly the Cornish one has a ton of noom and the French one has about zero (after your first gobsmacked initial approach). Why? The trillions of tourists don’t help at all, but also the French one has that classic french noomlessness. Someone rubbed away the patina. There is no mad aristocratic family with a known history of incestuous father rapists living in one of the towers
Voila, c’est sans Noom
This spot near my French house does have it - the mini chateau ("Doyenne") in our neighbouring hamlet.
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
Probably not this day though. Not enough candidates.
The Economist article points out that Reform isn´t really a party: no real membership, no councils, indeed few to no councillors, and only one MP (Lee Anderthal), no MSPs, members of the Senate etc etc.
They can not campaign on the ground, just relying on the media for the air war. So, I think they only thing the Reform poll rating gives is the proxy for Tory abstentions.
So it may be that the Lib Dems, who are the anti-Reform: lots of members, councils, councillors, MPS, Lords etc, actually see a boost in the air war after results in the ground war. That momentum could be more threatening to a lot more Tory seats than Reform...
Well, we will see what the coming three days bring, but I suspect nothing good for the Tories.
One of the things the Lib Dems lost when they went into government was the None Of The Above vote, because they became one of the Above. This vote was hoovered up by UKIP (and now Reform), which is one reason why the Farage party du jour is strong in former areas of Lib Dems strength like the south west and Wales.
If the Lib Dems have an unexpectedly strong performance in the locals then it would be a sign that they are attracting the NOTA votes again, at least when Reform don't stand candidates.
There's a distinct negative correlation between Ref and LD vote share, which I computed for the last 12 months a few threads ago. That does suggest some of this is intra-NOTA swing. Not as strong a correlation as Ref-Con but much stronger than with any of the other parties.
There's one area where the LD vote and Ref vote has very different dynamics (apart from the obvious policy one). People will often vote Lib Dem in locals on the basis they are good on local issues and run councils effectively. I'm sure people here will find counter-examples showing terrible council management, but that's the brand and seems to be strongly supported by the recent report on best run local authorities. Whereas they are less likely to vote LD in national elections.
Ref are the opposite. I doubt anyone is going to be voting Reform today because they think they'll run council services well. They will be voting Reform on national and identity issues.
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
Unlike our next GE, the US election is genuinely close. Anyone telling you they know which candidate is going to win is talking out their arse. I'd probably judge it about 53 - 46.5 Trump/Biden, with a 0.5% chance of someone else right now. Historical precedent favours Biden winning a second term, US presidents normally get re-elected if they go for it. Against that the polls are slightly favourable to Trump and Biden's approval ratings look like those of presidents who have failed to be re-elected.
For the first time in 49 years, the candidate I favour in an election being held today is the Labour Party candidate. Burnham. Seriously. I genuinely think he has the right priorities, and he genuinely seems to be trying to minimise the tribal stuff (as much as he can - clearly some of it is hardwired). And he genuinely seems to like his city and his electorate. He does the boosterism properly, which is a big job of a metro mayor. Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
Where these metro mayors work is where they easily ascend above party politics and narrow ideological dogma. Burnham does that, as does Street.
Then we have someone like Houchen, who doesn't...
Do you have any views on Kim McGuinness ? Being ex North East.
Does "who?" provide you with a sufficient answer?
Is this the expanded North of Tyne mayoralty which has the Corbynite incumbent?
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
Unlike our next GE, the US election is genuinely close. Anyone telling you they know which candidate is going to win is talking out their arse. I'd probably judge it about 53 - 46.5 Trump/Biden, with a 0.5% chance of someone else right now. Historical precedent favours Biden winning a second term, US presidents normally get re-elected if they go for it. Against that the polls are slightly favourable to Trump and Biden's approval ratings look like those of presidents who have failed to be re-elected.
Spot on. My only query would be is the 53-46.5 for the winner or the "winner" after the Supreme Court.....
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
In truth we're all creations on here.
I prefer
We are all just prisoners here Of our own device.
We can check out but we can never leave.
I am listening to that at the very moment. I do listen to it about 15 times a day on Spotify.
Felder and Walsh's guitar work is brilliant.
I ought to be the target demographic for this song and I like a lot of 70s US rock music but there's something about this song that I really can't get on board with. And it's so bloody long!
That's what I like about it. The song is fine, the musical Coda at the end is amazing. I love it. Same with the song Layla. Basically it is a growling Eric Clapton singing about humping George Harrisons wife, but the music after that, as used in Goodfellas, is just breathtaking.
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
The US was a lot more polarised in 2012 than in earlier times and is now, a lot more polarised than in 2012.
We keep being told that the next scandal will finish Trump, and it does not.
It won't finish Trump, he will get his core vote regardless and is already GOP nominee.
However a criminal conviction in a presidential campaign for Trump might switch back some of the Independents who voted for Biden in 2020 who are now leaning towards Trump
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
Unlike our next GE, the US election is genuinely close. Anyone telling you they know which candidate is going to win is talking out their arse. I'd probably judge it about 53 - 46.5 Trump/Biden, with a 0.5% chance of someone else right now. Historical precedent favours Biden winning a second term, US presidents normally get re-elected if they go for it. Against that the polls are slightly favourable to Trump and Biden's approval ratings look like those of presidents who have failed to be re-elected.
If Haley was Biden's opponent he would probably be toast yes (assuming Trump did not go 3rd party), it is only Trump as his opponent gives him a good shot of re election
Day before yesterday I went to Mont St Michel for the first time. Of course I compared it to St Michael’s Mount (the latter was actually a monastic satellite of the former for a while). I know the Cornish one really well, I once took tea with Lord and Lady St Levan, in the castle, and found it very hard not to mention Edward St Aubyn and his *interesting backstory*. But I managed it
Anyway the French version is much more impressive in several ways - it’s a lot bigger. It’s more architecturally harmonious and beautiful. It is imposing in a way the Cornish one is not
On the other hand the Cornish version is properly surrounded by tidal waters, and it has an even more interesting history - it’s probably the isle of Ictis mentioned by classical scholars as the tin trading island of the Phoenicians - Cornwall’s tin industry is at least 3000 years old
More importantly the Cornish one has a ton of noom and the French one has about zero (after your first gobsmacked initial approach). Why? The trillions of tourists don’t help at all, but also the French one has that classic french noomlessness. Someone rubbed away the patina. There is no mad aristocratic family with a known history of incestuous father rapists living in one of the towers
Voila, c’est sans Noom
I feel that Burgh Island might be more your type of island.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
Spot on.
Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
That’s NapoLEON to you
No one noticed this. Tsk
You were on your own in this.
Napoleon Solo, in fact
Some call him a Nepoleon, but that would be unfair.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
In truth we're all creations on here.
I prefer
We are all just prisoners here Of our own device.
We can check out but we can never leave.
I am listening to that at the very moment. I do listen to it about 15 times a day on Spotify.
Felder and Walsh's guitar work is brilliant.
I ought to be the target demographic for this song and I like a lot of 70s US rock music but there's something about this song that I really can't get on board with. And it's so bloody long!
That's what I like about it. The song is fine, the musical Coda at the end is amazing. I love it. Same with the song Layla. Basically it is a growling Eric Clapton singing about humping George Harrisons wife, but the music after that, as used in Goodfellas, is just breathtaking.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
@Leon - On an entirely separate subject - related to recent discussions on the subject of the numinous - my daughter bought me a book today. Almost makes me wonder if she is stalking my conversations on here:
650 noomy places. It's very lovely, anyway. You will be interested to know that there is an entire chapter on West Cornwall, which is as much as Lancashire and Yorkshire get combined.
Fantastic
And good call on Cornwall. West Cornwall in particular is one of the noomiest places on earth - eg the cliff side tin mines of Botallack. They are fantastically beautiful and spectacular, at the same time you know that their shafts go down to horrifying undersea tunnels where men and boys toiled naked hewing tin, with the constant threat of drowning from the booming seas above. During great storms the men would stop work and listen to the rolling boulders overhead
Noom factor 8.9
I assume your hit parade includes this from your neck of the woods? Garway Church. Always does it for me. Our family used to have a small cottage a few miles away. Indeed the whole area oozes it.
Garway and some similar places are why I suggested that “Kilpeck and the surrounding churches of west Herefordshire” should be UNESCO listed (and they should). For a start the masons that carved the incredible doorway at Kilpeck out of hard old red sandstone also worked - 1000 years ago - in other churches nearby. And they are all so incredibly atmospheric. Noomy. Abbey Dore. Tiny Craswall!
Craswall church on a winter’s day at dusk. Lethal amounts of Noom
Off-topic: one of my favourite facts about Napoleon is that he has been called the discoverer of the following cool theorem:
if you construct equilateral triangles on the sides of ANY triangle, their centres form another equilateral triangle.
His role as originator has been disputed. But this is still called Napoleon's theorem and the constructed triangle is called the Napoleon triangle of the original one.
He was certainly into maths, being an admirer of Carl Friedrich Gauss and an enthusiast for uncovering the mathematical mysteries of the pyramids at Giza.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Exactly and if Reform fail to win many councillors, fail to come at least second in the Blackpool South by election and fall behind even the Greens in the London Mayoral election it will show the Yougov poll is ridiculous in terms of actual votes
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
One poll is only ever a snapshot. The big causing excitement is that (a) the Tories continue to trend towards ELE, and (b) as ReFUK close in the political fun* for Sunak increases
I fully expect that some will try to claim today's results - where ReFUK are not standing many candidates - completely negates the polls for a GE where they are standing candidates everywhere. That will be hopium. As will be the joy if future defendent the Lord Houchen wins with only a 20 point swing against him. That said swing would remove the Tories on Teesside in their entirety and unleash first an NAO and then police probe into Teesworks suggests it would be a pyrrhic victory at best.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Exactly and if Reform fail to win many councillors, fail to come at least second in the Blackpool South by election and fall behind even the Greens in the London Mayoral election it will show the Yougov poll is ridiculous in terms of actual votes
They have the Tories on 10 and Reform on 14 in London. I'll be interested to see the mayoral and assembly results versus YouGovs last London poll
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Exactly and if Reform fail to win many councillors, fail to come at least second in the Blackpool South by election and fall behind even the Greens in the London Mayoral election it will show the Yougov poll is ridiculous in terms of actual votes
Pitiful. You are an experienced political activist. You must be able to recognise that you have just posted "I believe in fairies I believe in fairies I believe in fairies"
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Exactly and if Reform fail to win many councillors, fail to come at least second in the Blackpool South by election and fall behind even the Greens in the London Mayoral election it will show the Yougov poll is ridiculous in terms of actual votes
Pitiful. You are an experienced political activist. You must be able to recognise that you have just posted "I believe in fairies I believe in fairies I believe in fairies"
Blackpool was 68% Leave. If Reform cannot at least beat the Tories there in the parliamentary by election in Blackpool South tonight then they have no excuse, regardless of the fact they have not stood many council candidates.
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
The classic was 92 with Perot leading as an indy in June (39%) before Bush snr nobbled him and shenanigans ensued
It’s going to be interesting what effect, if any, Kennedy Jr has this year. He might go nowhere, or he might be able to get himself, like Perot, into a three-way debate.
Even if he only ends up with a couple of percent on the day, with things so close in many states between Trump and Biden it could affect the outcome.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
One poll is only ever a snapshot. The big causing excitement is that (a) the Tories continue to trend towards ELE, and (b) as ReFUK close in the political fun* for Sunak increases
I fully expect that some will try to claim today's results - where ReFUK are not standing many candidates - completely negates the polls for a GE where they are standing candidates everywhere. That will be hopium. As will be the joy if future defendent the Lord Houchen wins with only a 20 point swing against him. That said swing would remove the Tories on Teesside in their entirety and unleash first an NAO and then police probe into Teesworks suggests it would be a pyrrhic victory at best.
True enough, however there are plenty of places and chances for people to vote Reform today and less reason not to as we are not selecting the national government of the next five years. If they truly have 15% support it should start showing up where it can be expressed.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Exactly and if Reform fail to win many councillors, fail to come at least second in the Blackpool South by election and fall behind even the Greens in the London Mayoral election it will show the Yougov poll is ridiculous in terms of actual votes
Pitiful. You are an experienced political activist. You must be able to recognise that you have just posted "I believe in fairies I believe in fairies I believe in fairies"
Blackpool was 68% Leave. If Reform cannot at least beat the Tories there in the parliamentary by election in Blackpool South tonight then they have no excuse, regardless of the fact they have not stood many council candidates.
I don't know how to break the news to you - they won't win any seats. But Farage leading them and them having candidates in every constituency will give your 5 remaining voters a more Tory party to vote for than yours.
That 80 seat majority in 2019 should have been much bigger. But the Brexit Party vote literally splintered your vote so that Labour held on to seat after seat. In this coming election we will see the same effect - with a bigger splinter - though this time it will be taking seats off you not stopping you winning them.
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
The classic was 92 with Perot leading as an indy in June (39%) before Bush snr nobbled him and shenanigans ensued
It’s going to be interesting what effect, if any, Kennedy Jr has this year. He might go nowhere, or he might be able to get himself, like Perot, into a three-way debate.
Even if he only ends up with a couple of percent on the day, with things so close in many states between Trump and Biden it could affect the outcome.
The evidence is Kennedy takes about equally from Biden and Trump, much as Perot took about equally from Clinton and Bush in 1992.
A strong Green candidate would probably have been more of a threat to Biden than Kennedy Jr (like Nader was to Gore in 2000)
Has anyone seen the video of the chap stopped by the police in the USA because his kayak stuck out too far from the top of his car without a flag on it. He refused or couldn't produce some paperwork and wouldn't wind down his window so the policeman asked him to get out the car. He refused. The policeman was so taken aback he said credulously 'Excuse me?' Up to now this was quite civilised. The policeman threatened to smash the window to remove him and did so when he still wouldn't comply.. The driver then started praying to his god for help - His god being Donald Trump.
Some people are beyond help. Who the hell prays to Donald Trump.
Do you have a link? My Google-fu isn’t working this morning
Sorry it just popped up on my facebook on my phone and I can't find it now. However @bondegezou (below) posted a link to a partial video of it. Sadly in his video you don't get the build up, just the window smashing bit and the praying. It is worth seeing the build up to appreciate how trivial this was to begin with and the incredulity of the policeman who started off dealing with a very minor traffic offence and just couldn't believe what was unfolding.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
It is the first score of 18% for the Tories in YouGov. Truss didn't score lower than 19% with YouGov. The latest YouGov, with changes on the Truss nadir (20-21 Oct 2022) is:
CON 18 (-1) LAB 44 (-12) LDM 10 (nc) GRN 8 (+4) RFM 15 (+10) SNP 2 (-2)
It's definitely worth remarking upon. If you assume that the SNP -2 has mostly gone to LAB, then LAB have lost 10pp to CON since the Truss nadir. If they can win some of those over during an election campaign that would lead to the more extreme Tory wipeout scenarios.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Exactly and if Reform fail to win many councillors, fail to come at least second in the Blackpool South by election and fall behind even the Greens in the London Mayoral election it will show the Yougov poll is ridiculous in terms of actual votes
Don't comedy right parties like ukip tend to do disproportionately well in locals?
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Exactly and if Reform fail to win many councillors, fail to come at least second in the Blackpool South by election and fall behind even the Greens in the London Mayoral election it will show the Yougov poll is ridiculous in terms of actual votes
Don't comedy right parties like ukip tend to do disproportionately well in locals?
No, only in PR elections like for the EU Parliament
Had dinner yday with someone who had spent some time with Our Nige.
Suffice to say, that much like us all on PB, behind the gruff, heartless exterior he (Nige) is a warm, funny bloke alive to the issues around in particular immigration which he doesn't dislike just wanted to be able to control.
Says without Boris Brexit would never have been done and credits him hugely for that.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
In truth we're all creations on here.
I prefer
We are all just prisoners here Of our own device.
We can check out but we can never leave.
I am listening to that at the very moment. I do listen to it about 15 times a day on Spotify.
Felder and Walsh's guitar work is brilliant.
I ought to be the target demographic for this song and I like a lot of 70s US rock music but there's something about this song that I really can't get on board with. And it's so bloody long!
That's what I like about it. The song is fine, the musical Coda at the end is amazing. I love it. Same with the song Layla. Basically it is a growling Eric Clapton singing about humping George Harrisons wife, but the music after that, as used in Goodfellas, is just breathtaking.
Wifey's latest movie is based on an expanded version of a short story by Rose Tremain. Would love to tell you more - will when I can - but the cast that she is building is astounding....
The United States has formally accused Russia of using chemical weapons “as a method of warfare” against Ukraine and imposed sweeping new sanctions on Russian firms and government bodies.
In a statement on Wednesday, the US State Department said it had “made a determination … that Russia has used the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian forces in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).”
It added that Russia had also used “riot control agents,” or tear gas, during the war in violation of the CWC.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Exactly and if Reform fail to win many councillors, fail to come at least second in the Blackpool South by election and fall behind even the Greens in the London Mayoral election it will show the Yougov poll is ridiculous in terms of actual votes
Pitiful. You are an experienced political activist. You must be able to recognise that you have just posted "I believe in fairies I believe in fairies I believe in fairies"
Blackpool was 68% Leave. If Reform cannot at least beat the Tories there in the parliamentary by election in Blackpool South tonight then they have no excuse, regardless of the fact they have not stood many council candidates.
I don't know how to break the news to you - they won't win any seats. But Farage leading them and them having candidates in every constituency will give your 5 remaining voters a more Tory party to vote for than yours.
That 80 seat majority in 2019 should have been much bigger. But the Brexit Party vote literally splintered your vote so that Labour held on to seat after seat. In this coming election we will see the same effect - with a bigger splinter - though this time it will be taking seats off you not stopping you winning them.
I wouldn't ramp Farage up too much. Say he did lead Reform again and they then overtake the Tories on voteshare and Reform then gobbled up the Tory rump post election it is not hard to see a scenario where Farage becomes PM in an election or 2s time.
Given the volatile nature of western politics at the moment, a Starmer government battling high inflation, strikes and sluggish growth could soon become unpopular. Farage would also be a charismatic Leader of the Opposition to the rather dull PM Starmer
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
Brave. You'd better hope Hall doesn't win by one vote.
The probability of Hall winning by 1 vote is at least hundreds of millions to one against.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
I've been had I think you're both right. I mean she has moved herself onto the list of posters I never engage with or respond to directly so now it matters not to me but yes good call about her.
I am, however, interested whenever people invoke concepts such as "British" or "un-British" and believe it needs further dissection even if other posters on here might think that discussing racist tropes is "pearl clutching".
For the first time in 49 years, the candidate I favour in an election being held today is the Labour Party candidate. Burnham. Seriously. I genuinely think he has the right priorities, and he genuinely seems to be trying to minimise the tribal stuff (as much as he can - clearly some of it is hardwired). And he genuinely seems to like his city and his electorate. He does the boosterism properly, which is a big job of a metro mayor. Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
Where these metro mayors work is where they easily ascend above party politics and narrow ideological dogma. Burnham does that, as does Street.
The Tories are third among Leave voters. 32-28-27 RFM-LAB-CON.
The Tories are also third in the 50-64 age group. 43-21-18 LAB-RFM-CON.
The Tories are also third among male voters. 43-18-16 LAB-RFM-CON.
It's no surprise that they're also third among Remain voters (LDM second) or in the 18-24 age group (GRN second, RFM joint-third), or in Scotland/Wales (SNP/PC second). But I thought the other ones were more interesting and unusual.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Which is the better predictor for bettors? If I had a good Tory council or mayor I'd be quite happy to vote for them, whereas zero chance of me voting for the current incarnation of the national party. I doubt I am alone in that.
The twitterati are gorging themselves silly on that YouGov poll despite the fact they'll have a few million real votes to pore over in 48 hours rather than one poll.
Which is the better predictor for bettors? If I had a good Tory council or mayor I'd be quite happy to vote for them, whereas zero chance of me voting for the current incarnation of the national party. I doubt I am alone in that.
You take it all in the round. Yes polls are GE specific but there is no GE so they are also an expression of dissatisfaction. They become more relevant as a defined date approaches and minds are made up by the DKs. As we see with the LE and mayoral polling
John Swinney confirms what we reported on Monday; he doesn't want to be a short-term stopgap and would intend to lead the SNP into next Holyrood election.
John Swinney 17/2 Who Will Replace Humza Yousaf As The Next Permanent Leader Of The SNP? Next Permanent SNP Leader (Temporary or Caretaker Leaders Do Not Count) 22:00, 30 Jun Stake:£10.00 Pot. Returns:£95.00 Bet Receipt: 145367706 10:43 - 29 Apr
Note the timestamp on the bet. Before Yousless made his announcement, but after those of us who were paying attention already knew he had gone.
Off-topic: one of my favourite facts about Napoleon is that he has been called the discoverer of the following cool theorem:
if you construct equilateral triangles on the sides of ANY triangle, their centres form another equilateral triangle.
His role as originator has been disputed. But this is still called Napoleon's theorem and the constructed triangle is called the Napoleon triangle of the original one.
He was certainly into maths, being an admirer of Carl Friedrich Gauss and an enthusiast for uncovering the mathematical mysteries of the pyramids at Giza.
He started as an artillery officer. Very unfashionable branch of the French army of the time, but very heavy on the maths, in order to calculate trajectories.
Comments
Irony is she comes back this morning and is the one to start banging on about it again in a new thread.
Selby's only about 10 miles east of me but it's somewhere I go very, very infrequently. I suppose because it's in a different county - the focus was always west to the bright lights of Pontefract and Wakefield and, if you're particularly fond of travelling to far flung exotic locales, that Leeds.
But I agree, I don't think Selby's particularly metropolitan.
They can not campaign on the ground, just relying on the media for the air war. So, I think they only thing the Reform poll rating gives is the proxy for Tory abstentions.
So it may be that the Lib Dems, who are the anti-Reform: lots of members, councils, councillors, MPS, Lords etc, actually see a boost in the air war after results in the ground war. That momentum could be more threatening to a lot more Tory seats than Reform...
Well, we will see what the coming three days bring, but I suspect nothing good for the Tories.
I am listening to that at the very moment. I do listen to it about 15 times a day on Spotify.
Felder and Walsh's guitar work is brilliant.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/01/civil-service-union-tries-stop-rwanda-flights/
I don't think he's up to much but none of the other candidates are either. We need a proper local champion in the style of Andy Burnham but we aren't going to get one.
https://twitter.com/y_alibhai/status/1785649351353581932
Sunak & other people of colour who betray their immigrant heritage cannot be forgiven.
Day before yesterday I went to Mont St Michel for the first time. Of course I compared it to St Michael’s Mount (the latter was actually a monastic satellite of the former for a while). I know the Cornish one really well, I once took tea with Lord and Lady St Levan, in the castle, and found it very hard not to mention Edward St Aubyn and his *interesting backstory*. But I managed it
Anyway the French version is much more impressive in several ways - it’s a lot bigger. It’s more architecturally harmonious and beautiful. It is imposing in a way the Cornish one is not
On the other hand the Cornish version is properly surrounded by tidal waters, and it has an even more interesting history - it’s probably the isle of Ictis mentioned by classical scholars as the tin trading island of the Phoenicians - Cornwall’s tin industry is at least 3000 years old
More importantly the Cornish one has a ton of noom and the French one has about zero (after your first gobsmacked initial approach). Why? The trillions of tourists don’t help at all, but also the French one has that classic french noomlessness. Someone rubbed away the patina. There is no mad aristocratic family with a known history of incestuous father rapists living in one of the towers
Voila, c’est sans Noom
If Reform fall back in the polls next week after the local elections and the LDs are slightly up I doubt CCHQ will be too unhappy
Though TBF I have yet to see evidence of Lee Anderson MP doing a handspring or twizzle at 2am, after pints having taken.
https://youtu.be/88NbwhZWvUY?t=54
https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.88cb3289cf28661a0008da6b128e6e6f?rik=b/Pws2YsERZrMg&riu=http://www.garwayheritagegroup.co.uk/images/page-images/historic/church/View+of+St+Michaels+Church+Garway+from+the+North+large.jpg&ehk=/fTSvXTtLquNadei1ZIacexL+r28irhZcdd05JlmxEU=&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0
Then we have someone like Houchen, who doesn't...
If the Lib Dems have an unexpectedly strong performance in the locals then it would be a sign that they are attracting the NOTA votes again, at least when Reform don't stand candidates.
Is this the expanded North of Tyne mayoralty which has the Corbynite incumbent?
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tzdeKgTdTMo/UOxtnlht6RI/AAAAAAAAO1g/qrLaTEOToO8/s1600/doyenne.jpg
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2004/bush-vs-kerry
In May 1992 Gallup had Perot tied with Bush for the lead on 35% each with Clinton on just 25%, Bill Clinton went on to win.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections
In May 1988 Dukakis led Bush 41 by a massive 16% margin with Gallup, 54% to 38%, Bush went on to beat him though 53% to 46%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections
There's one area where the LD vote and Ref vote has very different dynamics (apart from the obvious policy one). People will often vote Lib Dem in locals on the basis they are good on local issues and run councils effectively. I'm sure people here will find counter-examples showing terrible council management, but that's the brand and seems to be strongly supported by the recent report on best run local authorities. Whereas they are less likely to vote LD in national elections.
Ref are the opposite. I doubt anyone is going to be voting Reform today because they think they'll run council services well. They will be voting Reform on national and identity issues.
Historical precedent favours Biden winning a second term, US presidents normally get re-elected if they go for it. Against that the polls are slightly favourable to Trump and Biden's approval ratings look like those of presidents who have failed to be re-elected.
We keep being told that the next scandal will finish Trump, and it does not.
However a criminal conviction in a presidential campaign for Trump might switch back some of the Independents who voted for Biden in 2020 who are now leaning towards Trump
Judging from me being No 5 at 8:30am, I predict a low turnout here.
Garway and some similar places are why I suggested that “Kilpeck and the surrounding churches of west Herefordshire” should be UNESCO listed (and they should). For a start the masons that carved the incredible doorway at Kilpeck out of hard old red sandstone also worked - 1000 years ago - in other churches nearby. And they are all so incredibly atmospheric. Noomy. Abbey Dore. Tiny Craswall!
Craswall church on a winter’s day at dusk. Lethal amounts of Noom
if you construct equilateral triangles on the sides of ANY triangle, their centres form another equilateral triangle.
His role as originator has been disputed. But this is still called Napoleon's theorem and the constructed triangle is called the Napoleon triangle of the original one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napoleon's_theorem
He was certainly into maths, being an admirer of Carl Friedrich Gauss and an enthusiast for uncovering the mathematical mysteries of the pyramids at Giza.
(a) the Tories continue to trend towards ELE, and
(b) as ReFUK close in the political fun* for Sunak increases
I fully expect that some will try to claim today's results - where ReFUK are not standing many candidates - completely negates the polls for a GE where they are standing candidates everywhere. That will be hopium. As will be the joy if future defendent the Lord Houchen wins with only a 20 point swing against him. That said swing would remove the Tories on Teesside in their entirety and unleash first an NAO and then police probe into Teesworks suggests it would be a pyrrhic victory at best.
I'll be interested to see the mayoral and assembly results versus YouGovs last London poll
Even if he only ends up with a couple of percent on the day, with things so close in many states between Trump and Biden it could affect the outcome.
That 80 seat majority in 2019 should have been much bigger. But the Brexit Party vote literally splintered your vote so that Labour held on to seat after seat. In this coming election we will see the same effect - with a bigger splinter - though this time it will be taking seats off you not stopping you winning them.
A strong Green candidate would probably have been more of a threat to Biden than Kennedy Jr (like Nader was to Gore in 2000)
CON 18 (-1)
LAB 44 (-12)
LDM 10 (nc)
GRN 8 (+4)
RFM 15 (+10)
SNP 2 (-2)
It's definitely worth remarking upon. If you assume that the SNP -2 has mostly gone to LAB, then LAB have lost 10pp to CON since the Truss nadir. If they can win some of those over during an election campaign that would lead to the more extreme Tory wipeout scenarios.
Suffice to say, that much like us all on PB, behind the gruff, heartless exterior he (Nige) is a warm, funny bloke alive to the issues around in particular immigration which he doesn't dislike just wanted to be able to control.
Says without Boris Brexit would never have been done and credits him hugely for that.
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240501_W.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VD4WHNbN_Eo
Although I see your "Layla" and raise you "Jump into the Fire" from the same film
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SvJ--JVU9w
(I'm not going to start inserting things like "In-A-Gadda-Da-Vita" from Manhunter, I'll be here all day
The United States has formally accused Russia of using chemical weapons “as a method of warfare” against Ukraine and imposed sweeping new sanctions on Russian firms and government bodies.
In a statement on Wednesday, the US State Department said it had “made a determination … that Russia has used the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian forces in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).”
It added that Russia had also used “riot control agents,” or tear gas, during the war in violation of the CWC.
Given the volatile nature of western politics at the moment, a Starmer government battling high inflation, strikes and sluggish growth could soon become unpopular. Farage would also be a charismatic Leader of the Opposition to the rather dull PM Starmer
Reports from polling stations around the country suggest polling is "brisk"
See ya'll tonight!
It's no surprise that they're also third among Remain voters (LDM second) or in the 18-24 age group (GRN second, RFM joint-third), or in Scotland/Wales (SNP/PC second). But I thought the other ones were more interesting and unusual.
Rwanda is working...@SimonJonesNews
711 migrants were detected crossing the English Channel on Wednesday, the highest number on a single day so far this year.
Runaway immigration
Can't see a GP or Dentist
Food prices up
Of course they are looking at other parties - they want someone to fix the mess and actually deliver the things they were promised.
I'd believe it if it were born out by real votes.
I presume it's that time of year when they're renegotiating their stipend.
@nickeardleybbc
John Swinney confirms what we reported on Monday; he doesn't want to be a short-term stopgap and would intend to lead the SNP into next Holyrood election.
John Swinney
17/2
Who Will Replace Humza Yousaf As The Next Permanent Leader Of The SNP?
Next Permanent SNP Leader (Temporary or Caretaker Leaders Do Not Count)
22:00, 30 Jun
Stake:£10.00
Pot. Returns:£95.00
Bet Receipt: 145367706
10:43 - 29 Apr
Note the timestamp on the bet. Before Yousless made his announcement, but after those of us who were paying attention already knew he had gone.
John Swinney refuses to say whether transwomen are women, saying he’s focussed on ‘core priorities’.
'sword lad', a touching tribute there
https://x.com/mrpaulrobinson/status/1785792481205854287?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q