Categories
Options
Could the Tory Jim Crow laws hand the election to Susan Hall? – politicalbetting.com
Could the Tory Jim Crow laws hand the election to Susan Hall? – politicalbetting.com
New: 5% of registered voters in London lack a valid form of photo IDWard level estimates show that this the highest in Becontree – 11% (Barking and Dagenham) and lowest in Bloomsbury – 0.5% (Camden). pic.twitter.com/IpvbuIrbTW
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
Oh, and unless they vote by post these rules probably make it more difficult for pensioners to vote than anyone else.
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.
That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.
Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.
I get the feeling the London vote might go some way to either vindicating or questioning YouGovs uber bearish Tory predictions
Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
CON 18 (-2)
LAB 44 (-1)
LIB DEM 10 (+1)
REF UK 15 (+2)
GRN 8 (+1)
Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/entertainment/music/richard-tandy-dead-electric-light-orchestra-keyboardist-dies-at-76/ar-AA1o0h86?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=df592928549e44a9c4f6ed16d2ac9d81&ei=15
Best of luck to anyone here who’s standing, from any party, and hope everyone who’s canvassing or otherwise helping out has a good day.
Next election will be for Parliament.
Hopium: Houchen and possibly Street cling on, HUGE MOMENTUM, the economy is brilliant again, Rwanda! and people now realise that Rayner and therefore Labour are all crooks.
Reality: ReFUK are now within MOE of the Tories, and Farage reported to be coming back. A narrow Houchen win is a 20 point swing which means demolition at the GE, real economy still crappy as people struggle to pay the Truss Tax on their mortgage / rent
I know that the 5 remaining Tory voters - all on here apparently - think hopium is real. Sadly for you / happily for everyone other than you it is not. Your disgrace of a party is getting what's coming to it and there's nothing you can do to stop it.
That’s the sort of local politics that would drive up turnout.
I genuinely do call people love - men and women - though even I tend to do it more for effect these days because its 2024 and the world has moved on.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
If Labour does win the GE maybe they should revert to the old STV process for everywhere except the London Assembly, where FPTP should be introduced!
hertheir name.I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.
You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.
You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.
There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
But it is this lack of campaigning nous – a toe-curling ability to say the wrong thing, the nervous laugh when confronted – that is being talked about by Conservative MPs as a key argument for changing leader if the results over the weekend are even more disastrous than anticipated.
Sunak’s personal ratings are low but several Tory MPs who have been campaigning in recent weeks have said they did not detect a visceral dislike of the prime minister personally. “It’s the kind of dismissiveness, out-of-touch stuff,” one MP campaigning in the West Midlands said. “It’s the perception he gets a helicopter everywhere.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/may/02/tories-rishi-sunak-elections-leader-change
Doesn't matter, because they can still take a decisive number of votes from the Conservatives and act as a siren dragging the blue team onto the rocks.
The hopium world has ReFUK voters "going home" to the Tories. And yet in 2019 they did not, and seat after seat after seat went Labour because of them. Same this time but on a national scale. A long campaign of Farage on the "news" telling everyone they have to save the country by voting the Tories out will utterly destroy the Tories.
Sub optimal
Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .
We both know that what you wrote was nonsense, yes?
Not from god's own county, AFAIK.
Calling someone love is a regional thing. Faking offence over it to mask doing a racism is a different matter.
I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
https://archive.ph/fcCIa
And especially the Fact Check:
https://archive.ph/kYBxv
Labour are saying even if they lose to Houchen by 10% or less they would expect to take all parliamentary seats in that mayoralty.
The media are also reporting that.
What I have seen in the media has been fair and balanced. Some happy clappy over the prospect of these wins, some seeing them as pyrrhic if they win.
I suspect overly partisan people, like yourself, want the media to report how they see things not how they actually are.
While I disagree with @Heathener comments on Sunak, I do wish the same respect for Khan. Islamophobic comments about him seem to bother folk here much less.
As a devout Muslim this was doubly shocking. Just glad my mother wasn't there.
I shall report back on the briskness of Norwichs sluggishness imminently
Just off to vote.
In order to stand erect
Reform must Farage elect
But poor Nigel is just a loafer
Watching Yes Minister from his sofa
There is - as an experienced political activist like you knows fully well - a huge difference between a single by-election and a national election campaign. Farage all over the airwaves tearing your party apart on its most sensitive area. A battle for the soul of the right after the election.
Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?
I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.
Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
After Sunak’s “good week” he’s now on 18% - lower than Liz Truss managed.
Local election noise/coverage probably raising smaller parties - but that’s exactly what will happen in a general election
I'm assuming they will comfortably have the best day vs. Reform, Greens or Tories, with the latter losing lots of seats even if they maintain some mayoralties.
Admittedly 18% is I think a new Tory low so a recovery from that point is pretty likely.
Fabulous trip. Nous retournons
Sunak (and the SNP leader) are almost certainly going to be on planes and helicopters everywhere.
As mentioned previously, there’s too many young CCHQ staffers who still think Boris Johnson is the PM, and haven’t yet clocked that the current PM needs a very different type of stage-management.
It was no different to when I worked at the Golders Green depot being called "mate" by people.
500 losses is the benchmark. But the Tories will look to distract from their shellacking if they hold one or two of their mayors.
Sympathies go out to any paper candidates who inadvertently find themselves elected.
Needs to be dialled back from "anyone can have a postal vote" to "only if you have a valid reason why you can't present yourself at a polling station". Simply too open to fraud and abuse.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/entertainment/music/duane-eddy-pioneering-rock-n-roll-guitarist-dies-at-86/ar-AA1o05a6?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=69f4fe288b7549f89604868b341fa381&ei=10
He is now also proposing some crazy tax policies, including taxing unrealised gains.
Biden is making a hostage to fortune here. Had the Republicans selected a half decent candidate they would be streets ahead.
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.
That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.
OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.
If that is what's going on... oh dear.
I'm wondering what contingency planning our Govt are doing, on the prospect of a man who declares himself able to declassify Top Secret material by a thought, and then give it to anyone who gives him enough money, around such things as US access to our Five Eyes material.
I suspect the Ghost of Paul Daniels has the answer.
This can look like a gradual trend over time because, in an attempt to compensate for the statistical noise in opinion polls, we average them over time, and that will make a step-change look like a gradual change over time.
I think the increase in Reform support in the polls is a good example of this. It seems to have increased in three distinct phases, and then plateaued, before increasing again. I'd suggest this was in reaction to three distinct events - the Truss failure/defenestration, the Supreme Court judgement on Rwanda (possibly, I haven't checked the dates closely, but I think it was a fuss related to Rwanda/small boats) which exposed the inability of the government to get a grip on the issue, and something else I haven't identified. Granted I haven't put a lot of effort into the detail of this hypothesis yet.
What I would say about April is that anyone pointing to April's opinion polls and saying they provide evidence that supports the hypothesis that a downward trend in Conservative support is continuing is wrong. You might be right that, alone, one month isn't enough to show that a trend has stopped, but I think it's fair enough to point to a month's worth of polls in contrast to someone appealing to a single poll.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections
challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The Evolution of Bollards:
https://twitter.com/WorldBollard/status/1785012427949781400
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Still trying to locate the Shakespeare quote - one of his lost plays maybe?
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
Just the lonely Green on post outside totting up, usually Labour there too. I think given that and the lack of placards they've not bothered and the Greens will easily hold my ward. Without my vote though
There is in fact a perfect logic in tightening up postal votes. Currently you can apply for a postal vote for someone else, without their knowledge, and having the postal vote sent to a different address.
Trebles all round.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/welsh-fm-narrowly-wins-vote-to-reject-investigation-into-controversial-donation/ar-AA1nZWxC?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=165971005892466ffd0506dcf69d588c&ei=24
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
Averaged its 50% to 36% to the Tories in 2019 .
https://www.kennedy24.com/spoiler
A poll which has Trump beating Biden, Kennedy beating Biden, and Kennedy beating Trump.
'Only Kennedy can beat Donald Trump in 2024.
“To be a spoiler, a candidate has to fulfill two requirements — first, they must not be able to win themselves, and, second, by participating in the election, they must prevent someone else from winning who otherwise would,” Kennedy explained.
By that criterion, the only spoiler in the race is President Biden. He is the one who cannot win against either candidate and whose presence gives Trump the victory instead of Kennedy.'