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Stodge’s third and final look at the locals – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,246
    MattW said:

    That dog wants a walk.
    Or is just a camera hog.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    Taz said:

    How the SNP broke Scotland, from the Telegraph. Obviously not the most balanced of takes. I presume the SNP did some good too .

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/how-the-snp-broke-scotland/ar-AA1nUzga?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8e4caeb7eded4e7094361cd25036be45&ei=10

    It is bollox Taz, the Tories broke us and were minimally assisted by the SNP. Highest GDP in UK apart from London, no bankrupt councils unliek england, methinks they dost protest too much.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,756

    I suspect that entirely depends on whether jezza is planning a new party or not.
    Rumours were Webbe and Tahir Ali but the latter has vehemently denied
    Claudia Webbe is not currently a Labour MP, of course.

    There are a few potential names if we are looking at "majors on Palestine" people, but we'll hear soon enough.
  • I am astonished by how many of the parties are not running a full slate of candidates. Back in the day in Stafford and Cannock - before they became Tory strongholds - we always put up a full slate. We operated on the basis that if people got out of the habit of voting for us in the locals, they may not do so when the General Election came around.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,780
    Taz said:

    How the SNP broke Scotland, from the Telegraph. Obviously not the most balanced of takes. I presume the SNP did some good too .

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/how-the-snp-broke-scotland/ar-AA1nUzga?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8e4caeb7eded4e7094361cd25036be45&ei=10

    Interesting read, thank you. Here is a non-paywall link: https://archive.is/aK5dL
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,920

    Makes a change from extremely old Time Lord absconds with attractive teenage girl and places her in danger only he can save her from
    And having to call her his granddaughter for fear of offending the moral majority !!!

    The first Doctor was a sprightly youngster compared to this Doctor who is several iterations and many centuries further down the line.

    I am optimistic about the new season. I like Gatwa, he is very charismatic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    viewcode said:

    Interesting read, thank you. Here is a non-paywall link: https://archive.is/aK5dL
    It is the usual bollox
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited April 2024
    MattW said:

    Claudia Webbe is not currently a Labour MP, of course.

    There are a few potential names if we are looking at "majors on Palestine" people, but we'll hear soon enough.
    Yep. I think the rumours was 2 MPs 'one of whom is a serving Lab MP' which allows for Webbe to be the other one.
    Sultana, Whittome etc
    I wouldn't be surprised if he's angling at Abbott on the qt
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    edited April 2024
    Leon said:

    They will surely have to start charging simply to come here soon. As Venice has done

    I believe ex-PBer @SeanT predicted this: fees simply to enter famous destinations, towns, islands - in a piece for the Spec in 2016

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/caught-in-the-tourist-trap/

    “By the end of my autumnal travels, it occurred to me that there is one solution: the Bhutanese example. You ration travel, by time and money: you start to make people pay simply to get into cities, regions, nations”

    I bow to no-one in my futurology and extrapolations, but that is notably prescient: as Venice starts to charge simply for Venice

    Why should only wealthy people be able to travel to interesting places? Maybe a lottery system would be better.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,780
    Leon said:

    They will surely have to start charging simply to come here soon. As Venice has done

    I believe ex-PBer @SeanT predicted this: fees simply to enter famous destinations, towns, islands - in a piece for the Spec in 2016

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/caught-in-the-tourist-trap/

    “By the end of my autumnal travels, it occurred to me that there is one solution: the Bhutanese example. You ration travel, by time and money: you start to make people pay simply to get into cities, regions, nations”

    I bow to no-one in my futurology and extrapolations, but that is notably prescient: as Venice starts to charge simply for Venice

    Interesting, thank you. Non-paywall link: https://web.archive.org/web/20200823123832/https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/caught-in-the-tourist-trap
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    Yep. I think the rumours was 2 MPs 'one of whom is a serving Lab MP' which allows for Webbe to be the other one.
    Sultana, Whittome etc
    I wouldn't be surprised if he's angling at Abbott on the qt
    Abbott's not a serving Labour MP either though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    Andy_JS said:

    Why should only wealthy people be able to travel to interesting places?
    Because the places that everyone wants to go will have to be rationed SOMEHOW. Read that brilliantly prescient article by the much-missed @SeanT

    The obvious way to ration them is by price - so that the money can be used to maintain the sites and bribe the locals to tolerate the influx

    I guess you could ration them by lottery ticket but let’s face it that’s not going to happen. Humans are not that generous and also you need to recompense local traders who will lose from diminished custom

    So yes travel to the really lovely places will be limited to rich people and professional travel writers. Good. Kick out all the smelly plebs, they’ve ruined Mont St Michel. I am already leaving. Ugh
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited April 2024

    Abbott's not a serving Labour MP either though.
    That's why it's a separate sentence, separate point to any imminent movement.
    Edit - he claims to be talking to 'MPs, a Lord, several councillors' about defection
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    Given recent weather, what about mini turbines installed in drainpipes?
    Let's assume a fairly large roof - 120sqm.
    Average rainfall in my part of Ireland of around 2000mm, or 2000kg/sqm, so that's 240 tonnes of rain falling through the drainpipes.
    Assume a height for the roof of, I have no idea, 4 metres?
    Total gravitational potential energy released is then
    240000 * 9.8 * 4 = 9.4 million Joules of energy. Or about 2.6kWh.
    With a 25% efficient turbine, that would be about 650Wh* of energy. Over the course of a year.

    You would want the turbines to be very cheap.

    * Our resident electric car youtube star can perhaps say how far this would move a Tesla model Y.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    Sandpit said:

    Something that seems to be have been highly contagious among senior PO managers.
    Dreadful, isn’t it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    Leon said:

    It’s fucking hideous. They should UNESCO list the tourist crowds. This is the queue just to get in the abbey


    Outrageous! Don't you have a Press Pass?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    edited April 2024
    Only 2300 of the 5700 asylum seekers about to be detained for despatch to Rwanda can be located.

    BBC WATO.

    The Government assumes they have not absconded.

    Edit: Sarah Montague believes they have all gone to Dublin, which means Rwanda is working.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,695
    On the topic: Bristol could be interesting.

    "BRISTOL
    The local elections in Bristol on May 2 are the most significant for some time, as the city moves to a new way of governing that will see the mayor replaced by a committee system. It follows a landmark referendum in 2022 where residents voted to scrap the position of a directly elected mayor.

    It means the Green Party is far more likely to be in positions of power after the elections. The party currently has the most councillors with 25, but has been excluded from the cabinet because there is no obligation for the outgoing mayor, Labour’s Marvin Rees, to include them."

    https://www.politics.co.uk/5-minute-read/2024/04/30/six-key-battlegrounds-at-the-2024-local-elections/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927

    Outrageous! Don't you have a Press Pass?
    I do have a press card but I can’t be arsed with the faff. From what I’ve read the abbey interior is not that special anyway - it’s all about the location

    And now I’ve seen the location and the moment you finally approach the Mont is indeed very special and quite sublime. This majestic ensemble in grey gold stone, rising from the Normandy waters

    After that it’s just massive crowds outside mediocre creperies. Mont St Michel can go fuck itself until they keep out the proles by charging €300 a day to people like me and only me

    Tchoh!

  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,537
    edited April 2024
    Leon said:

    Because the places that everyone wants to go will have to be rationed SOMEHOW. Read that brilliantly prescient article by the much-missed @SeanT

    The obvious way to ration them is by price - so that the money can be used to maintain the sites and bribe the locals to tolerate the influx

    I guess you could ration them by lottery ticket but let’s face it that’s not going to happen. Humans are not that generous and also you need to recompense local traders who will lose from diminished custom

    So yes travel to the really lovely places will be limited to rich people and professional travel writers. Good. Kick out all the smelly plebs, they’ve ruined Mont St Michel. I am already leaving. Ugh
    Tried to get into the BM last week to see the Romans exhibition. Needless to say, being a scholar and a gent, I had not thought to buy a ticket in advance. I expect to walk in there at a time of my own choosing, with a polite nod on the way from a uniformed commissionaire. So I was unprepared to find the crowd in Gt Russell Street resembling the aftermath of a north-London derby, heaving blindly in all directions, bemoaning each other's presence in every known language except English. Any pretence that the BM is a place of learning or scholarship has long been abandoned. We may as well sell the Elgin Marbles to the Arabs and be done with them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    edited April 2024

    Tried to get into the BM last week to see the Romans exhibition. Needless to say, being a scholar and a gent, I had not thought to buy a ticket in advance. I expect to walk in there at a time of my own choosing, with a polite nod on the way from a uniformed commissionaire. So I was unprepared to find the crowd in Gt Russell Street resembling the aftermath of a north-London derby, heaving blindly in all directions, bemoaning each other's presence in every known language except English. Any pretence that the BM is a place of learning or scholarship has long been abandoned. We may as well sell the Elgin Marbles to the Arabs and be done with them.
    That could easily be fixed - if we want to keep the BM free - by making people book timed entrance online. Honestly, all these hugely popular places will have to ration entrance. Most will do it by money. Some by time

    A billion Indians are about to start travelling. On top of a billion Chinese who are now on the move
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261
    Andy_JS said:

    Why should only wealthy people be able to travel to interesting places? Maybe a lottery system would be better.
    Don't worry, when wealthy people go there they stop being interesting.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976

    Worth noting that the government in Ireland is pulling a bit of a fast one here. They admitted yesterday that they had no statistics or data on asylum seeker arrivals, and had just assumed they all asylum seekers who weren't claiming asylum at a port of entry (like Dublin Airport) must have come from the UK via Northern Ireland.

    Of course, it suited the Tories to accept responsibility so they could claim it as evidence that Rwanda was working.
    A parties of the right mutually satisfying 69.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,191
    Leon said:


    I do have a press card but I can’t be arsed with the faff. From what I’ve read the abbey interior is not that special anyway - it’s all about the location

    And now I’ve seen the location and the moment you finally approach the Mont is indeed very special and quite sublime. This majestic ensemble in grey gold stone, rising from the Normandy waters

    After that it’s just massive crowds outside mediocre creperies. Mont St Michel can go fuck itself until they keep out the proles by charging €300 a day to people like me and only me

    Tchoh!

    I think they should start by banning journalists and travel writers. After all they just attract more of the proles. ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    It's 17 degrees today but feels like 27 compared to the last few days.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,885

    I really got my march on this morning. I've walked 16.5km. To the next town Carrión de los Condes in three and a quarter hours, just over 5kmph

    I carried on to Carrión with out stopping, I've stopped for caffe and cash in Carrión, then I'll carry on up the Camino

    You make me want to chick it all in and go on a long walk again. I really miss it.

    Unfortunately, I'll just have to wait until the little un's 18 and I can chuck him out of the house. ;)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927

    A parties of the right mutually satisfying 69.
    How do the Irish propose to “return” these people to the UK? What are they going to do? Bus them to Newry and drop them there? So they can stroll back into Ireland? Fly them in helicopters to Newent and kick them out with a parachute attached?

    Do they expect the RAF to land at Knock airport and do it all for them?

    They are a pathetic nation
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927

    I think they should start by banning journalists and travel writers. After all they just attract more of the proles. ;)
    I am constantly aware of this unhappy paradox
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,317
    Leon said:


    I do have a press card but I can’t be arsed with the faff. From what I’ve read the abbey interior is not that special anyway - it’s all about the location

    And now I’ve seen the location and the moment you finally approach the Mont is indeed very special and quite sublime. This majestic ensemble in grey gold stone, rising from the Normandy waters

    After that it’s just massive crowds outside mediocre creperies. Mont St Michel can go fuck itself until they keep out the proles by charging €300 a day to people like me and only me

    Tchoh!

    I did warn you a week or so ago when you said you were going. It is very commercialised. We basically cycled up to it. Admired it from our bikes and then went for a beer in one of the modern bars/restaurants on the path leading up to it.

    As you say it is impressive to look at, but I couldn't be bothered to go in.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Taz said:

    Another sinner repenting on matters of gender

    Starmer supports Rosie Duffield now however...

    In 2021, the Labour leader had criticised Ms Duffield for saying that only women have a cervix, saying that her comment “is something that shouldn’t be said. It’s not right”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/rosie-duffield-right-to-say-only-women-have-a-cervix-says-starmer/ar-AA1nV79p?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e355acd57feb461fc92fab194b68f5c4&ei=30

    A lot of left wing men have fallen into the same trap as Billy Bragg - if sex realists / gender critics include women like Kemi Badenoch
    Taz said:

    We are seeing a flood of people changing their tune on this matter. Problem is people have kept the receipts. Whatever people think of Rosie Duffields views she was treated appallingly by Labour over it. Ostracised and abused by online TRA's for daring to challenge their orthodoxy.

    People now changing their views because of the Cass report are just moral cowards. Weathervanes. It is not a case of changing views as the information had changed. It was all there in the first place.

    Billy Bragg is just a prick. Mansplaining feminism to real feminists. Women be quiet. A man is speaking.
    A classic example is Caroline Blokes who has purged her Twitter of all references to Trans - but there are interviews where she intoned the mantra TWAW.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,075

    It’s a huge symbolic moment in a febrile political atmosphere, meaning lots of voters will notice it and think the government have done a good job to stand cost of living crisis on its head so quickly.

    Just to correct you, it’s energy behind the big drop. And the sequence of announcements is: 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%!

    To exploit this, Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May, for 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.

    The final vote shares will be CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
    I seem to remember a previous prediction of the election date voiced with great confidence, yet proving to be mistaken. Do you have no self doubt around this new prediction?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    edited April 2024
    kjh said:

    I did warn you a week or so ago when you said you were going. It is very commercialised. We basically cycled up to it. Admired it from our bikes and then went for a beer in one of the modern bars/restaurants on the path leading up to it.

    As you say it is impressive to look at, but I couldn't be bothered to go in.
    I was going to condemn you for being a careless philistine about an hour ago - now I salute your excellent good sense. Yes, all you have to do is get close and look at it. If there’s any noom it’s there - simply the sight of it - faraway and up close. Inside you might as well be in a weird stone Disneyland but without the exciting rides
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,835
    MattW said:

    That dog wants a walk.
    When it’s cooler - it’s high 20s out there right now
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    A lot of left wing men have fallen into the same trap as Billy Bragg - if sex realists / gender critics include women like Kemi Badenoch A classic example is Caroline Blokes who has purged her Twitter of all references to Trans - but there are interviews where she intoned the mantra TWAW.
    Is Caroline Blokes a typo for Caroline Nokes? I hope not. Under the circumstances the comedy works for me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476
    Leon said:

    That could easily be fixed - if we want to keep the BM free - by making people book timed entrance online. Honestly, all these hugely popular places will have to ration entrance. Most will do it by money. Some by time

    A billion Indians are about to start travelling. On top of a billion Chinese who are now on the move
    Timed entrance is an excellent thing. I went to Rome with my wife a few years back. She really doesn't like what she calls "excessive planning".

    For the Vatican Museum, we walked past the queue for about 45 minutes. The queues are so normal that they have slots in the pavement for the barriers to keep the line tidy and out of the way of people using the pavement for other reasons.

    We walked straight in with our timed tickets.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited April 2024
    i
    viewcode said:

    Interesting read, thank you. Here is a non-paywall link: https://archive.is/aK5dL
    Interesting - but it doesn’t factor in middle class bungs like “free” Uni (paid for by lower access for poorer students) and “free” prescriptions - which the poor/elderly didn’t pay for anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927

    Don't worry, when wealthy people go there they stop being interesting.
    You could fix that by having lottery tickets for a few lucky and interesting plebs. They’d have to prove they are characterful, engaging and ornamental. I’m not sure you or @kinabalu would qualify on any grounds other than a plebeian origin, sorry

    But that’s how you fix the rich man ghetto issue. Have a tiny sprinkling of fat proles in their sports attire, they’d have their own entrances marked by a a crossed out puffer gilet
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Interesting thread explaining how legally “gender identity” is a belief, despite denials from its proponents:

    https://x.com/michaelpforan/status/1785235291814461664
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    edited April 2024

    Timed entrance is an excellent thing. I went to Rome with my wife a few years back. She really doesn't like what she calls "excessive planning".

    For the Vatican Museum, we walked past the queue for about 45 minutes. The queues are so normal that they have slots in the pavement for the barriers to keep the line tidy and out of the way of people using the pavement for other reasons.

    We walked straight in with our timed tickets.
    Even with timed entrance and premium tickets the Vatican museum is now horrific. Enormous crowds - potentially dangerous - squeezing past all that remarkable art. It’s sad. I experienced it last year

    About 25 years ago I remember being the ONLY person in the Stanze of Raphael looking at The School of Athens. Unthinkable now

    So even tho they are charging they will simply have to charge more and more until the crowds finally dwindle and it becomes tolerable again

    And thus travel returns to what it was: the indulgence of the wealthy

    Can’t wait
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    FF43 said:

    Actually the interior of Mont St Michel is a stunning piece of medieval civil engineering. It's a stone box projected around a point. So the cloister is built three (?) stories up.

    Sorry that the crowds are getting in the way of enjoying it though. The only consolation is that it is a somewhat authentic experience. The crowds of medieval pilgrims would have been equally jostled and fleeced by the rip off souvenir shops.
    Ah dammit. Oh well. That’s one I missed

    I’ve not missed much else in this life, so far
  • Leon said:


    I do have a press card but I can’t be arsed with the faff. From what I’ve read the abbey interior is not that special anyway - it’s all about the location

    And now I’ve seen the location and the moment you finally approach the Mont is indeed very special and quite sublime. This majestic ensemble in grey gold stone, rising from the Normandy waters

    After that it’s just massive crowds outside mediocre creperies. Mont St Michel can go fuck itself until they keep out the proles by charging €300 a day to people like me and only me

    Tchoh!

    You needed to go to Mass for a full noom

    Monks and nuns chanting beautifully in Latin really lifts the place

    And you need some zen to do deal with those crowds, but it is so worth it
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Is Caroline Blokes a typo for Caroline Nokes? I hope not. Under the circumstances the comedy works for me.
    Given her rapidly being erased position on TWAW it’s her unaffectionate nickname.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,563

    I am astonished by how many of the parties are not running a full slate of candidates. Back in the day in Stafford and Cannock - before they became Tory strongholds - we always put up a full slate. We operated on the basis that if people got out of the habit of voting for us in the locals, they may not do so when the General Election came around.

    When I stood as a paper candidate for Craven District Council, we made sure that we were able to stand a full slate of candidates. We didn't win any of the wards up that year (came close in one), but we felt it was important to give everyone the opportunity to vote Labour.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,671
    kjh said:

    I did warn you a week or so ago when you said you were going. It is very commercialised. We basically cycled up to it. Admired it from our bikes and then went for a beer in one of the modern bars/restaurants on the path leading up to it.

    As you say it is impressive to look at, but I couldn't be bothered to go in.
    At the other end of the scale we have recently seen the Ruthwell Cross (first visit since about 1977) and appeared to have been the only humans within about 5 miles. Noom factor lessened by the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk but still a miraculous survival from when Northumbria was at the apex of European civilization. And equally miraculously unlocked (though apparently usually locked, like Scottish churches are, key to be had from someone somewhere).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927

    You needed to go to Mass for a full noom

    Monks and nuns chanting beautifully in Latin really lifts the place

    And you need some zen to do deal with those crowds, but it is so worth it
    You and @FF43 nearly persuaded me to book a hotel on the island overnight. So I could see the abbey first thing in the morning before the crowds…. But it’s shut on May 1

    God has decided. Or the queen of Beltane. Allez!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,246
    I'm pretty sure this would be criminal - but then again, if Trump's elected, he can pardon everyone involved.
    The dirt would have to be invented, but that's not been a problem for them before.

    I hope Robert Mueller's ears are burning.

    Rudy is now telling Mike Johnson & Jim Jordan to do exactly what Trump was impeached for: “Somebody should lean on Zelensky. You want another penny, give us your Biden file.”

    And we are supposed to believe that Trump & Rudy didn’t do this?

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1785050398266474644
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?


    Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:

    “I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."




    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1785279238410580151?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,191
    Leon said:

    I am constantly aware of this unhappy paradox
    Actually more seriously, as a travel journlist you should know that the best time to visit these places is out of season. There is something fabulously bleak and imposing about Mont St Michel in January or February. Same goes for so many of the relligious sites in Spain and Italy. They somehw feel far more authentic than on a warm spring or summer's day.

    And of course a lot less tourists.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976
    algarkirk said:

    At the other end of the scale we have recently seen the Ruthwell Cross (first visit since about 1977) and appeared to have been the only humans within about 5 miles. Noom factor lessened by the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk but still a miraculous survival from when Northumbria was at the apex of European civilization. And equally miraculously unlocked (though apparently usually locked, like Scottish churches are, key to be had from someone somewhere).
    Pretty sure your pin up would enjoy the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk.
    Or at least take a flinty satisfaction from them which passes for Noom in Weefreeworld.


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    edited April 2024
    Leon said:

    How do the Irish propose to “return” these people to the UK? What are they going to do? Bus them to Newry and drop them there? So they can stroll back into Ireland? Fly them in helicopters to Newent and kick them out with a parachute attached?

    Do they expect the RAF to land at Knock airport and do it all for them?

    They are a pathetic nation
    A coach from Dublin to Glasgow via Belfast would cost £52 commercially, with a change at Belfast.

    If the Irish government is capable of organising a direct service (not guaranteed), at which point will UK Border Force check the passports and prevent entry to the returning asylum seekers?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Susannah Reid giving SKS a tough time on gender & single sex wards:

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1785212404416000254
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.

    I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive

    https://youtu.be/CbnyjcYGw_M?si=5G_k2NaUauMjD72L
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,061
    isam said:

    Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?


    Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:

    “I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."




    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1785279238410580151?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Could just be SOP- don't name your rival, being talked about negatively is better than not being talked about at all.

    But Hall almost certainly will outperform Generic Conservative; she'd be a hopeless Mayor and is comfortably on track to lose very badly, but she has kept Reform in a very small box. High floor/low ceiling. Zone 6 appeal, which is where Conservative voters are.

    Forget the ethnic bit; Sunak is The Man (looks, sounds and behaves like a banker) and a chunk of the Reform vote is a vote against The Man.

    (Which is why Con+Ref=Not too bad a defeat is unlikely to happen.)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2024

    Susannah Reid giving SKS a tough time on gender & single sex wards:

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1785212404416000254

    Bad morning for him. I can’t help but think that when public see more of him, he could mess this up
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Leon said:

    Even with timed entrance and premium tickets the Vatican museum is now horrific. Enormous crowds - potentially dangerous - squeezing past all that remarkable art. It’s sad. I experienced it last year

    About 25 years ago I remember being the ONLY person in the Stanze of Raphael looking at The School of Athens. Unthinkable now

    So even tho they are charging they will simply have to charge more and more until the crowds finally dwindle and it becomes tolerable again

    And thus travel returns to what it was: the indulgence of the wealthy

    Can’t wait
    A lot of these places will be happy to rent themselves out as an event space. If you have the money I expect you can already arrange for private use, in the evening at least.

    Such a shame that you can't afford that extravagance.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,920
    Andy_JS said:

    Why should only wealthy people be able to travel to interesting places? Maybe a lottery system would be better.
    We should all have a tradeable carbon allowance that us poor serfs can sell to the Posh boys and girls who can pollute the globe with conscience clear.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,931
    edited April 2024
    isam said:

    Bad morning for him. I can’t help but think that when public see more of him, he could mess this up
    What could be dangerous is that Rishi makes some headway on the economy and Rwanda and then starts successfully spinning himself as Britain's 'Comeback Kid'. I think elements of Labour and the Left might attempt to spread panic at that point - either out of genuinely concern or devilry - and Sir Keir will seriously feel the pressure.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,920
    isam said:

    Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?


    Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:

    “I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."




    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1785279238410580151?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    He really is an obnoxious prick.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    No defections in Galloway's announcement, but he says he is talking to '3 Lab mps and a lord' and expects councillor defections 'as soon as next week'
    So a nothing nothing burger
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    He also predicts Yaqoob will cost Lab the West Mids Mayoralty
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    What could be dangerous is that Rishi makes some headway on the economy and Rwanda and then starts successfully spinning himself as Britain's 'Comeback Kid'. I think elements of Labour and the Left might start spreading panic at that point - either out of genuinely concern or devilry - and Sir Keir might seriously feel the pressure.
    I have to factor in my intense dislike of Sir Keir, but to me he is just as shifty and dishonest as Boris… and he doesn't charm ANYONE.

    Whenever an interviewer exposes his double standards or non answers he tells them off as if they should know better, or grins like Alan Partridge when a guest embarrasses him. Sunak seems a lot more of a nice guy & has a youthful energy that should contrast well in a one vs one with Sir Keir’s overweight old man look
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927

    Actually more seriously, as a travel journlist you should know that the best time to visit these places is out of season. There is something fabulously bleak and imposing about Mont St Michel in January or February. Same goes for so many of the relligious sites in Spain and Italy. They somehw feel far more authentic than on a warm spring or summer's day.

    And of course a lot less tourists.
    Of course I know that. I never intended to come here on this trip. It’s a whim - I’m choosing my destination every morning

    Anyway I’ve ticked it off from my list. And it does look magnificent in the bright sunshine - glittering on the spires and stone

    Also in winter I wouldn’t get this view above my aperol spritz


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Monty was out on parade with him though so spinny fun was had
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,563
    isam said:

    Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.

    I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive

    https://youtu.be/CbnyjcYGw_M?si=5G_k2NaUauMjD72L

    But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.

    So he'll look like a titan.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.

    So he'll look like a titan.
    Personally I don’t think he will out perform Sunak in the debates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories probably could have won the London mayoral election if they'd selected a better candidate. A bit of a missed opportunity. For instance, someone like Alan Sugar, if he still supports the Tories. (He probably doesn't).

    Sugar isn't a Tory, he supported Thatcher but also backed Blair and Brown. If he did stand it would have been as an Independent
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,563
    Kate Forbes has said she has a "groundswell of support amongst the party" as she told BBC Scotland News that she's still weighing up whether to run to be the next SNP leader.

    Speaking in Holyrood, Forbes said she was considering her options and whether this was the right time for the party, the country and her family.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,563
    edited April 2024
    John Swinney has just said that he's giving a "great deal of thought" to whether to run for SNP leader.

    The former deputy first minister said he wanted to ensure it was the right decision for his family, party and country. His potential leadership rival Kate Forbes said something similar a few minutes before.

    Asked about his decision to not run for the leadership again last year, John Swinney said "events change" and that it "wouldn't be my style" to ignore the voices telling him to run this time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited April 2024
    Galloway/WPB not standing against Corbyn, Abbott or Webbe if they stand as indies and probably backing the indy in Bethnal Green
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976

    But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.

    So he'll look like a titan.
    Dunno, if BBC Shortbread can cause him difficulties..
    Lorra, lorra 'well, look's

    https://x.com/firthoforth/status/1784643379701137429
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,563
    Forbes and Swinney need to stop wibbling and announce what they are doing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,173
    isam said:

    Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.

    I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive

    https://youtu.be/CbnyjcYGw_M?si=5G_k2NaUauMjD72L

    That’s appalling: “legal advices”?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,005
    Off topic - What is it with HMRC Government Gateway IDs and seperate logins for stuff both business and personal.

    Just amended something with the Deferment/CDS, but had to use a login which I randomly googled rather than the "main" VAT portal, even though there's stuff about DAN within the VAT login.

    Similiar for taxation and the childcare system personally (Different login pages, same ID & password for both)- government systems really should have a single login for a single gateway ID !

    I expect it's similar for universal credit and so on.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,780
    edited April 2024

    ...it "wouldn't be my style" to ignore the voices telling him to run this time...

    "Voices"? "Voices"????

  • I'm not sure what's more annoying.. MoonRabbits hopeless election predictions..or Leon's desire for travel restrictions for the poor..🤨
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,246
    AI-enabled electrocardiography alert intervention and all-cause mortality: a pragmatic randomized clinical trial

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02961-4
    The early identification of vulnerable patients has the potential to improve outcomes but poses a substantial challenge in clinical practice. This study evaluated the ability of an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) to identify hospitalized patients with a high risk of mortality in a multisite randomized controlled trial involving 39 physicians and 15,965 patients. The AI-ECG alert intervention included an AI report and warning messages delivered to the physicians, flagging patients predicted to be at high risk of mortality. The trial met its primary outcome, finding that implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality within 90 days: 3.6% patients in the intervention group died within 90 days, compared to 4.3% in the control group (4.3%) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70–0.99). A prespecified analysis showed that reduction in all-cause mortality associated with the AI-ECG alert was observed primarily in patients with high-risk ECGs (HR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.53–0.90). In analyses of secondary outcomes, patients in the intervention group with high-risk ECGs received increased levels of intensive care compared to the control group; for the high-risk ECG group of patients, implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cardiac death (0.2% in the intervention arm versus 2.4% in the control arm, HR = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.01–0.56). While the precise means by which implementation of the AI-ECG alert led to decreased mortality are to be fully elucidated, these results indicate that such implementation assists in the detection of high-risk patients, prompting timely clinical care and reducing mortality.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,395

    That’s appalling: “legal advices”?
    Sadly, some of these words are becoming normalised. "Trainings" is not just said by Indians in tech anymore. Americans and even Brits have taken it up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,246
    This does not sound good.

    Exclusive: Israel planning ring of checkpoints to prevent “military age” men from fleeing Rafah, a senior Western official says
    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1785057903147208865
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off topic - What is it with HMRC Government Gateway IDs and seperate logins for stuff both business and personal.

    Just amended something with the Deferment/CDS, but had to use a login which I randomly googled rather than the "main" VAT portal, even though there's stuff about DAN within the VAT login.

    Similiar for taxation and the childcare system personally (Different login pages, same ID & password for both)- government systems really should have a single login for a single gateway ID !

    I expect it's similar for universal credit and so on.

    Yes, a single login would be great, until someone steals your identity.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2024

    That’s appalling: “legal advices”?
    It seems to me as though he is preparing to have clean hands if Rayner is in trouble, by saying he believes her and doesn't need to look at the evidence. This way he can pile the blame on her whilst making himself look like a good boss who trusts his team but has been let down

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,246
    edited April 2024

    That’s appalling: “legal advices”?
    "If you don't like this advice, here's another one" ?

    Alternatively, Rayner got a second opinion to be sure ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,005
    edited April 2024

    Yes, a single login would be great, until someone steals your identity.
    Err you do have a single User ID and password. I happen to use two as I log in personally and on behalf of my employer. It's the same for taxes and childcare (Personal); deferment and VAT account (Business). But the webpages for logging into different parts of your account are different. Which is unlike any other organisation I can think of.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited April 2024
    It does rather look like Galloway/WPB will be running in at least a plurality of seats at the GE, I wonder what effect prompting for them in polling might have? 2%?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    It has been said that one contributory factor to May's disastrous 2017GE campaign was the terrorist attacks that occurred. There's an obvious parallel with today's horrific knife attack in North London for Thursday's Mayoral election.

    Might Khan lose?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,246

    I'm not sure what's more annoying.. MoonRabbits hopeless election predictions..or Leon's desire for travel restrictions for the poor..🤨

    Ignore that - he's just trying to wind people up.
    Something of a hobby, I think.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    isam said:

    It seems to me as though he is preparing to have clean hands if Rayner is in trouble, by saying he believes her and doesn't need to look at the evidence. This way he can pile the blame on her whilst making himself look like a good boss who trusts his team but has been let down

    It would be interesting if Watson lays charges on Rayner tomorrow. That would be optimal timing for the elections.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited April 2024

    It has been said that one contributory factor to May's disastrous 2017GE campaign was the terrorist attacks that occurred. There's an obvious parallel with today's horrific knife attack in North London for Thursday's Mayoral election.

    Might Khan lose?

    Him scoffing at Halls machete comments was ill advised but he should still win relatively easily imo
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    edited April 2024

    It has been said that one contributory factor to May's disastrous 2017GE campaign was the terrorist attacks that occurred. There's an obvious parallel with today's horrific knife attack in North London for Thursday's Mayoral election.

    Might Khan lose?

    I can't believe anyone would change their vote based on an isolated incident like this, maybe some do.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    Nigelb said:

    AI-enabled electrocardiography alert intervention and all-cause mortality: a pragmatic randomized clinical trial

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02961-4
    The early identification of vulnerable patients has the potential to improve outcomes but poses a substantial challenge in clinical practice. This study evaluated the ability of an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) to identify hospitalized patients with a high risk of mortality in a multisite randomized controlled trial involving 39 physicians and 15,965 patients. The AI-ECG alert intervention included an AI report and warning messages delivered to the physicians, flagging patients predicted to be at high risk of mortality. The trial met its primary outcome, finding that implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality within 90 days: 3.6% patients in the intervention group died within 90 days, compared to 4.3% in the control group (4.3%) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70–0.99). A prespecified analysis showed that reduction in all-cause mortality associated with the AI-ECG alert was observed primarily in patients with high-risk ECGs (HR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.53–0.90). In analyses of secondary outcomes, patients in the intervention group with high-risk ECGs received increased levels of intensive care compared to the control group; for the high-risk ECG group of patients, implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cardiac death (0.2% in the intervention arm versus 2.4% in the control arm, HR = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.01–0.56). While the precise means by which implementation of the AI-ECG alert led to decreased mortality are to be fully elucidated, these results indicate that such implementation assists in the detection of high-risk patients, prompting timely clinical care and reducing mortality.

    (I haven't read this yet, so may well be in the article)

    Sounds promising, but as always, there's the question of how many alerts - sensitivity/specificity etc. A system that raised alerts for most/all patients would (in the short term at least, until ignored) probably reduce mortality by getting them extra time reviewed by a clinician.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    It has been said that one contributory factor to May's disastrous 2017GE campaign was the terrorist attacks that occurred. There's an obvious parallel with today's horrific knife attack in North London for Thursday's Mayoral election.

    Might Khan lose?

    It is interesting the relative level of knife crime in Labour London and Conservative West Midlands.

    It does look from our PB correspondents that everything is going horribly wrong for Labour this week.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Andy_JS said:

    I can't believe anyone would change their vote based on an isolated incident like this, maybe some do.
    It puts issues around crime and violence in the forefront of voters' minds. There's ample evidence that people react differently as a result.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    It has been said that one contributory factor to May's disastrous 2017GE campaign was the terrorist attacks that occurred. There's an obvious parallel with today's horrific knife attack in North London for Thursday's Mayoral election.

    Might Khan lose?

    Unlikely given it’s the Tories that have cut funding to the Met Police . Although I’m sure Hall will try and score political points on this.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    One of Sir Keir & Rosie Duffield is telling porkies


  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 2024
    See the similarities between Yousaf and Sanchez.

    Why did Yousaf end the (twattishly labelled) Bute House Agreement? Not clear. Then it was "I will fight on". Then BANG, he's gone.

    Meanwhile in Spain:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/30/pedro-sanchez-spain-crisis-prime-minister

    "Pedro Sánchez has built a reputation as a successful political gambler, but suspending public duties and threatening to resign, as he did last week, was a political bombshell. It was so extraordinary it led to five days of national puzzlement and the wildest speculation over his motives: from mental health to true love and all kinds of shenanigans associated with the dark arts of politics in between."

    "The timing of this apparently self-inflicted political turmoil adds to its oddity. "(...)

    "On Monday, after his period of reflection, Sanchez issued another statement, vowing to stay on and fight even harder against those who peddled the “falsehoods distorting political life”." (...)

    "The irony is that Spain is now in good shape.
    " (BBM)

    Sanchez will gone by the end of the week IMO.

    From earlier this month:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/10/spains-sanchez-saysdisproportionate-israeli-gaza-attacks-a-world-threat

    "Spain’s Sanchez says ‘disproportionate’ Israeli Gaza attacks a world threat

    "Prime minister pushes for recognition of a Palestinian state, says such a ‘just’ move would be in European Union’s interest."

    "Late last month, he signed a joint statement with his Irish, Maltese and Slovenian counterparts announcing they were ready “to recognise Palestine” if that could help bring about a resolution to more than six months of war in Gaza, during which Israeli attacks have killed at least 33,360 people, according to Palestinian health officials.

    Sanchez is due to meet several other leaders, including those of Norway and Portugal, in the coming days to discuss the issue, Spanish government spokeswoman Pilar Alegria said on Tuesday.

    The prime minister had already raised the subject of statehood during a visit last week to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar when he indicated Spain could recognise Palestine as a nation by the end of June.
    "
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    It would be interesting if Watson lays charges on Rayner tomorrow. That would be optimal timing for the elections.
    Given he’s a Tory stooge perhaps he might . But it would look so politically timed that I expect he doesn’t want his career progression to hit the buffers .
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    isam said:

    One of Sir Keir & Rosie Duffield is telling porkies


    Starmer's treatment of Rosie Duffield echoes one of the low points of Corbyn's leadership of Labour, when the latter did nothing to help Luciana Berger when she was suffering from antisemitic attacks.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The size of the blade the Hainault killer was using this morning is disturbing. Big knives seem to be a trend nowadays
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information

    The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.


    I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.

    Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes

  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,756
    IanB2 said:

    When it’s cooler - it’s high 20s out there right now
    That dog wants a shave. Followed by a walk. :smile:
This discussion has been closed.