Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
One of Sir Keir & Rosie Duffield is telling porkies
Starmer's treatment of Rosie Duffield echoes one of the low points of Corbyn's leadership of Labour, when the latter did nothing to help Luciana Berger when she was suffering from antisemitic attacks.
And there’s been a big backlash against both leaders positions.
The size of the blade the Hainault killer was using this morning is disturbing. Big knives seem to be a trend nowadays
A pen knife isn't going to do you much good if the other guy has a short sword. There's obviously going to be a trend towards larger knives, unless the supply can be restricted.
I'm struggling to see the legal use of such a knife. Is it a display thing?
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
Those RR mini nukes are still a bit big though for domestic use. There's a gap in the market for a full service household nuclear generation option, on the model of solar panels.
Subscribe for home nuclear. Up-front payment then a small monthly service contract.
Briefcase-sized reactor arrives and the installers will install it on the back wall or in the basement and wire it up to your mains supply. Excess power goes back into the grid with a generous feed-in tariff. Cooling water can be reused for your bath and showers. Every couple of months an engineer will come with a van to collect your radioactive waste and replenish the uranium.
And if you want to be even more green then consider home hydro. Engineers will come and install a micro-generator on your mains water supply. Worth considering if you're on fixed water rates rather than a meter.
Given recent weather, what about mini turbines installed in drainpipes?
Let's assume a fairly large roof - 120sqm. Average rainfall in my part of Ireland of around 2000mm, or 2000kg/sqm, so that's 240 tonnes of rain falling through the drainpipes. Assume a height for the roof of, I have no idea, 4 metres? Total gravitational potential energy released is then 240000 * 9.8 * 4 = 9.4 million Joules of energy. Or about 2.6kWh. With a 25% efficient turbine, that would be about 650Wh* of energy. Over the course of a year.
You would want the turbines to be very cheap.
* Our resident electric car youtube star can perhaps say how far this would move a Tesla model Y.
That's enough energy to boil enough water to make one cup of tea twice a month.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
Greens came close to beating the Tories in true-blue Ilkley last year. Could go one better this time out.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
Those RR mini nukes are still a bit big though for domestic use. There's a gap in the market for a full service household nuclear generation option, on the model of solar panels.
Subscribe for home nuclear. Up-front payment then a small monthly service contract.
Briefcase-sized reactor arrives and the installers will install it on the back wall or in the basement and wire it up to your mains supply. Excess power goes back into the grid with a generous feed-in tariff. Cooling water can be reused for your bath and showers. Every couple of months an engineer will come with a van to collect your radioactive waste and replenish the uranium.
And if you want to be even more green then consider home hydro. Engineers will come and install a micro-generator on your mains water supply. Worth considering if you're on fixed water rates rather than a meter.
Given recent weather, what about mini turbines installed in drainpipes?
Let's assume a fairly large roof - 120sqm. Average rainfall in my part of Ireland of around 2000mm, or 2000kg/sqm, so that's 240 tonnes of rain falling through the drainpipes. Assume a height for the roof of, I have no idea, 4 metres? Total gravitational potential energy released is then 240000 * 9.8 * 4 = 9.4 million Joules of energy. Or about 2.6kWh. With a 25% efficient turbine, that would be about 650Wh* of energy. Over the course of a year.
You would want the turbines to be very cheap.
* Our resident electric car youtube star can perhaps say how far this would move a Tesla model Y.
That's enough energy to boil enough water to make one cup of tea twice a month.
Yeah. It's an idea that keeps on coming up, I've seen it speculated upon many times over the decades, but it's even less useful than the tiny rooftop wind turbines that were briefly a thing.
The numbers were so bad that I was worried one of the smartarse pedants would find an obvious mistake.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Low inflation might be a symptom of weak demand combined with rising unemployment.Inflation has already fallen from 11% to just over 3% but has had little obvious effect on the polls. Why should any further decline to 2% make much difference?
It’s a huge symbolic moment in a febrile political atmosphere, meaning lots of voters will notice it and think the government have done a good job to stand cost of living crisis on its head so quickly.
Just to correct you, it’s energy behind the big drop. And the sequence of announcements is: 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%!
To exploit this, Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May, for 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
The final vote shares will be CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
I seem to remember a previous prediction of the election date voiced with great confidence, yet proving to be mistaken. Do you have no self doubt around this new prediction?
Some Labour people pushed May 2nd simply to call Sunak frit - that wasn’t me, and Rishi didn’t shut this down, keeping 2nd May option open a very long time, like he was considering it.
I’m not alone in thinking Autumn likely brings a worse result, and a better one gained in spring or this side of summer recess - ConHome seems convinced of this too. But is Sunak’s election team really all about divining/shaping the moment for the best possible result for the Conservative Party this year?or merely about hanging on to the bucking bronco of power as long as possible? If we are seriously looking to find the date for best possible result, we can look like mugs if Sunak is merely about clinging on for no good reason. I still believe he is/they are waiting for the best moment of the year.
I was wrong on May 2nd, but not the reasons for May 2nd. It was chosen on basis of, if Spring election is better than autumn, the bad local election night causes Tory civil war, VONCs etc making election impossible, makes it either May 2nd or Autumn, nothing in middle. That was the mistake, presuming rest of May/June would be Tory civil war. That civil war and strife obviously not going to happen now, neither the Mayor wipe out or the 500 seat losses, nor the big bout of infighting, and definitely not a VONC.
Add to 2nd May locals night now spun as okay result for Tories, 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good 2024 growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%! and Rwanda flights in the air - June and July dates are now an option if it is all about getting best possible result. To answer your question: yes. Tories are on for a far better result on July 4th - when the moment of optimism will be at its strongest based on this platform of news, than mixed picture on economic direction, boat crossings and Rwanda come November or December. Don’t you see it like this too?
So which day in June or July? 4th of July is decided by the fact Parliament will close on 23rd May anyway, so that suggests Monday 13th May as date calling it, with just over a week to tie Parliament session up, two weeks spring holiday/phoney campaign followed by normal campaign limit takes us to 4th July. Any later and voters will be going off on holiday, equally any earlier like a June date gets Whitsun holidays in the middle of the election campaign.
This is why I’m calling MoonRabbits 4th of July election, called on 13th May “Tits Out for Whitsun, Theory.”
BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
AI-enabled electrocardiography alert intervention and all-cause mortality: a pragmatic randomized clinical trial
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02961-4 The early identification of vulnerable patients has the potential to improve outcomes but poses a substantial challenge in clinical practice. This study evaluated the ability of an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) to identify hospitalized patients with a high risk of mortality in a multisite randomized controlled trial involving 39 physicians and 15,965 patients. The AI-ECG alert intervention included an AI report and warning messages delivered to the physicians, flagging patients predicted to be at high risk of mortality. The trial met its primary outcome, finding that implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality within 90 days: 3.6% patients in the intervention group died within 90 days, compared to 4.3% in the control group (4.3%) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70–0.99). A prespecified analysis showed that reduction in all-cause mortality associated with the AI-ECG alert was observed primarily in patients with high-risk ECGs (HR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.53–0.90). In analyses of secondary outcomes, patients in the intervention group with high-risk ECGs received increased levels of intensive care compared to the control group; for the high-risk ECG group of patients, implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cardiac death (0.2% in the intervention arm versus 2.4% in the control arm, HR = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.01–0.56). While the precise means by which implementation of the AI-ECG alert led to decreased mortality are to be fully elucidated, these results indicate that such implementation assists in the detection of high-risk patients, prompting timely clinical care and reducing mortality.
(I haven't read this yet, so may well be in the article)
Sounds promising, but as always, there's the question of how many alerts - sensitivity/specificity etc. A system that raised alerts for most/all patients would (in the short term at least, until ignored) probably reduce mortality by getting them extra time reviewed by a clinician.
I look forward to your considered analysis. (It's paywalled for me.)
But it's the first such study which shows a mortality benefit, I think ?
Nick Wallis report on this morning's PO proceedings.
"Hugh Flemington is a very careful man. The former Post Office Head of Legal spent his morning in the Inquiry witness chair characterising his involvement in the Post Office scandal as accidental, at best.
The problem was, the documents do seem to suggest he was involved at some level, though he couldn’t recall how. He didn’t remember doing things and mostly he didn’t remember not doing things and if he didn’t do something it wasn’t a failing on his part at the time, it just hadn’t occurred to him at the time.
The tone was set quite early on when barrister for the Inquiry Sam Stevens asked if Mr Flemington knew that the standard of proof in a criminal trial was that a jury had to be sure of guilt. Mr Flemington wasn’t sure, telling Stevens he was reliant on comedy exploding clown car Jarnail Singh for his education in criminal law. Stevens was a little taken aback, as well he might be. If Flemington, a senior lawyer, was going to tell the Inquiry he was not able to confirm he knew what the criminal standard of proof was, it was going to be a long morning."
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
Those RR mini nukes are still a bit big though for domestic use. There's a gap in the market for a full service household nuclear generation option, on the model of solar panels.
Subscribe for home nuclear. Up-front payment then a small monthly service contract.
Briefcase-sized reactor arrives and the installers will install it on the back wall or in the basement and wire it up to your mains supply. Excess power goes back into the grid with a generous feed-in tariff. Cooling water can be reused for your bath and showers. Every couple of months an engineer will come with a van to collect your radioactive waste and replenish the uranium.
And if you want to be even more green then consider home hydro. Engineers will come and install a micro-generator on your mains water supply. Worth considering if you're on fixed water rates rather than a meter.
Given recent weather, what about mini turbines installed in drainpipes?
Let's assume a fairly large roof - 120sqm. Average rainfall in my part of Ireland of around 2000mm, or 2000kg/sqm, so that's 240 tonnes of rain falling through the drainpipes. Assume a height for the roof of, I have no idea, 4 metres? Total gravitational potential energy released is then 240000 * 9.8 * 4 = 9.4 million Joules of energy. Or about 2.6kWh. With a 25% efficient turbine, that would be about 650Wh* of energy. Over the course of a year.
You would want the turbines to be very cheap.
* Our resident electric car youtube star can perhaps say how far this would move a Tesla model Y.
That's enough energy to boil enough water to make one cup of tea twice a month.
Yeah. It's an idea that keeps on coming up, I've seen it speculated upon many times over the decades, but it's even less useful than the tiny rooftop wind turbines that were briefly a thing.
The numbers were so bad that I was worried one of the smartarse pedants would find an obvious mistake.
Absolutely.
Energy and water saving always come down to KISS.
In water it's keep your water in your site and use it for the garden or pond or watering plants; it's generally too much overhead to install an entire second system to harvest rainwater and recycle greywater for indoor use, especially in retrofit.
Most of the industry (apart from the genuinely credulous gimmick sellers and David Cameron) picked that up from the Grande Complication of the upper levels of Gordon Brown's Code for Sustainable Homes.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
It’s fucking hideous. They should UNESCO list the tourist crowds. This is the queue just to get in the abbey
Outrageous! Don't you have a Press Pass?
I do have a press card but I can’t be arsed with the faff. From what I’ve read the abbey interior is not that special anyway - it’s all about the location
And now I’ve seen the location and the moment you finally approach the Mont is indeed very special and quite sublime. This majestic ensemble in grey gold stone, rising from the Normandy waters
After that it’s just massive crowds outside mediocre creperies. Mont St Michel can go fuck itself until they keep out the proles by charging €300 a day to people like me and only me
Tchoh!
Glad I did it many years ago before it was ruined by mass tourism. You could park easily and stroll up to the top was wonderful.
It has been said that one contributory factor to May's disastrous 2017GE campaign was the terrorist attacks that occurred. There's an obvious parallel with today's horrific knife attack in North London for Thursday's Mayoral election.
Might Khan lose?
When 2017 is told, it’s always only May’s social care funding that gets the blame (still the only plan anyones ever put on table for problem still going on) not the impact of terrorist attacks that don’t even get mentioned as swinging votes from what were solid in local elections to switched to useless opposition one month later for no obvious reason.
When I was a child I clearly remember terror attack in Spain two days from an election that wiped out a 20 point lead and handed opposition shock victory.
Nick Ferrari on LBC claims two Labour MPs are about to defect to Gorgeous's latest vehicle.
The MP for Coventry South might be a possibility.
I suspect that entirely depends on whether jezza is planning a new party or not. Rumours were Webbe and Tahir Ali but the latter has vehemently denied
Claudia Webbe is not currently a Labour MP, of course.
There are a few potential names if we are looking at "majors on Palestine" people, but we'll hear soon enough.
Yep. I think the rumours was 2 MPs 'one of whom is a serving Lab MP' which allows for Webbe to be the other one. Sultana, Whittome etc I wouldn't be surprised if he's angling at Abbott on the qt
Abbott's not a serving Labour MP either though.
Interesting that Ferrari was simply wrong. I wonder if he was fed false info by Galloway (how unimaginable) or someone backed off at the last minute.
One of Sir Keir & Rosie Duffield is telling porkies
Starmer's treatment of Rosie Duffield echoes one of the low points of Corbyn's leadership of Labour, when the latter did nothing to help Luciana Berger when she was suffering from antisemitic attacks.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Low inflation might be a symptom of weak demand combined with rising unemployment.Inflation has already fallen from 11% to just over 3% but has had little obvious effect on the polls. Why should any further decline to 2% make much difference?
It’s a huge symbolic moment in a febrile political atmosphere, meaning lots of voters will notice it and think the government have done a good job to stand cost of living crisis on its head so quickly.
Just to correct you, it’s energy behind the big drop. And the sequence of announcements is: 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%!
To exploit this, Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May, for 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
The final vote shares will be CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
I seem to remember a previous prediction of the election date voiced with great confidence, yet proving to be mistaken. Do you have no self doubt around this new prediction?
Some Labour people pushed May 2nd simply to call Sunak frit - that wasn’t me, and Rishi didn’t shut this down, keeping 2nd May option open a very long time, like he was considering it.
I’m not alone in thinking Autumn likely brings a worse result, and a better one gained in spring or this side of summer recess - ConHome seems convinced of this too. But is Sunak’s election team really all about divining/shaping the moment for the best possible result for the Conservative Party this year?or merely about hanging on to the bucking bronco of power as long as possible? If we are seriously looking to find the date for best possible result, we can look like mugs if Sunak is merely about clinging on for no good reason. I still believe he is/they are waiting for the best moment of the year.
I was wrong on May 2nd, but not the reasons for May 2nd. It was chosen on basis of, if Spring election is better than autumn, the bad local election night causes Tory civil war, VONCs etc making election impossible, makes it either May 2nd or Autumn, nothing in middle. That was the mistake, presuming rest of May/June would be Tory civil war. That civil war and strife obviously not going to happen now, neither the Mayor wipe out or the 500 seat losses, nor the big bout of infighting, and definitely not a VONC.
Add to 2nd May locals night now spun as okay result for Tories, 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good 2024 growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%! and Rwanda flights in the air - June and July dates are now an option if it is all about getting best possible result. To answer your question: yes. Tories are on for a far better result on July 4th - when the moment of optimism will be at its strongest based on this platform of news, than mixed picture on economic direction, boat crossings and Rwanda come November or December. Don’t you see it like this too?
So which day in June or July? 4th of July is decided by the fact Parliament will close on 23rd May anyway, so that suggests Monday 13th May as date calling it, with just over a week to tie Parliament session up, two weeks spring holiday/phoney campaign followed by normal campaign limit takes us to 4th July. Any later and voters will be going off on holiday, equally any earlier like a June date gets Whitsun holidays in the middle of the election campaign.
This is why I’m calling MoonRabbits 4th of July election, called on 13th May “Tits Out for Whitsun, Theory.”
Remember you heard it here first. 😌
I don't think there will be an interest rate cut on 9 May. However this is quite peripheral to your overall analysis! 4 July or 27 June remain a possibility. After that then not til late September (possibly)!
The size of the blade the Hainault killer was using this morning is disturbing. Big knives seem to be a trend nowadays
A pen knife isn't going to do you much good if the other guy has a short sword. There's obviously going to be a trend towards larger knives, unless the supply can be restricted.
I'm struggling to see the legal use of such a knife. Is it a display thing?
I don’t know. It must be nigh on impossible to stop people using knives as weapons, given every house in the country has them. Really is a case of the owner not the weapon
Nick Ferrari on LBC claims two Labour MPs are about to defect to Gorgeous's latest vehicle.
The MP for Coventry South might be a possibility.
I suspect that entirely depends on whether jezza is planning a new party or not. Rumours were Webbe and Tahir Ali but the latter has vehemently denied
Claudia Webbe is not currently a Labour MP, of course.
There are a few potential names if we are looking at "majors on Palestine" people, but we'll hear soon enough.
Yep. I think the rumours was 2 MPs 'one of whom is a serving Lab MP' which allows for Webbe to be the other one. Sultana, Whittome etc I wouldn't be surprised if he's angling at Abbott on the qt
Abbott's not a serving Labour MP either though.
Interesting that Ferrari was simply wrong. I wonder if he was fed false info by Galloway (how unimaginable) or someone backed off at the last minute.
Utter waffle sandwich today from Starmer. Just tells Susanna Reid what a great bloke he is rather than answer her perfectly reasonable questions. This will grind the gears of a lot of voters.
The size of the blade the Hainault killer was using this morning is disturbing. Big knives seem to be a trend nowadays
A pen knife isn't going to do you much good if the other guy has a short sword. There's obviously going to be a trend towards larger knives, unless the supply can be restricted.
I'm struggling to see the legal use of such a knife. Is it a display thing?
It looks very much like a samurai type sword but they have been banned for sale, import or hire since 2013 unless it is genuine japanese sword being bought by a collector.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
It's flat out illegal, and trivially easy to work out that it is though. So the council is paying once for the barriers, twice for the removal and maybe thrice for potential compensation, not to forget four times for a brief/silk or w/e.
Is it the council or the Woodland Trust which is responsible, please?
The Council in this case most likely. Normally it would be the Local Highways Authority (LHA) in England and Wales, which is the London Borough, or the County or Unitary City Council.
One strange thing is that the best recent infrastructure eg along former railway lines, or as part of developments, never seems to get designated as Public Rights of Way (ie footpaths, bridleways etc), which makes it difficult to hold the LHA to account under PROW (Highways Act 1980) law. And action under the Equality Act can only be taken by the individual discriminated against, which often lands it on poorer people with lower psychological resilience who will struggle to stump up a £400 Court Fee.
It's strange - near me I have a full set of pedestrian walkways with underpasses built around a motorway junction in 1967-8 which are not dedicated as PROWs. Which the local conservative MP wanting a bigger roundabout described in Parliament as essentially a complication that is in his way.
On this one I am jealous of the legal situation in Scotland.
Thanks for that. Most interesting.
On your last point, tut, you'll upset the PBScotch Experts who are convinced that the Scottish Parliament never produces good legislation. On which: freeholds/feu duties, anyone?
BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Low inflation might be a symptom of weak demand combined with rising unemployment.Inflation has already fallen from 11% to just over 3% but has had little obvious effect on the polls. Why should any further decline to 2% make much difference?
It’s a huge symbolic moment in a febrile political atmosphere, meaning lots of voters will notice it and think the government have done a good job to stand cost of living crisis on its head so quickly.
Just to correct you, it’s energy behind the big drop. And the sequence of announcements is: 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%!
To exploit this, Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May, for 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
The final vote shares will be CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
I seem to remember a previous prediction of the election date voiced with great confidence, yet proving to be mistaken. Do you have no self doubt around this new prediction?
Some Labour people pushed May 2nd simply to call Sunak frit - that wasn’t me, and Rishi didn’t shut this down, keeping 2nd May option open a very long time, like he was considering it.
I’m not alone in thinking Autumn likely brings a worse result, and a better one gained in spring or this side of summer recess - ConHome seems convinced of this too. But is Sunak’s election team really all about divining/shaping the moment for the best possible result for the Conservative Party this year?or merely about hanging on to the bucking bronco of power as long as possible? If we are seriously looking to find the date for best possible result, we can look like mugs if Sunak is merely about clinging on for no good reason. I still believe he is/they are waiting for the best moment of the year.
I was wrong on May 2nd, but not the reasons for May 2nd. It was chosen on basis of, if Spring election is better than autumn, the bad local election night causes Tory civil war, VONCs etc making election impossible, makes it either May 2nd or Autumn, nothing in middle. That was the mistake, presuming rest of May/June would be Tory civil war. That civil war and strife obviously not going to happen now, neither the Mayor wipe out or the 500 seat losses, nor the big bout of infighting, and definitely not a VONC.
Add to 2nd May locals night now spun as okay result for Tories, 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good 2024 growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%! and Rwanda flights in the air - June and July dates are now an option if it is all about getting best possible result. To answer your question: yes. Tories are on for a far better result on July 4th - when the moment of optimism will be at its strongest based on this platform of news, than mixed picture on economic direction, boat crossings and Rwanda come November or December. Don’t you see it like this too?
So which day in June or July? 4th of July is decided by the fact Parliament will close on 23rd May anyway, so that suggests Monday 13th May as date calling it, with just over a week to tie Parliament session up, two weeks spring holiday/phoney campaign followed by normal campaign limit takes us to 4th July. Any later and voters will be going off on holiday, equally any earlier like a June date gets Whitsun holidays in the middle of the election campaign.
This is why I’m calling MoonRabbits 4th of July election, called on 13th May “Tits Out for Whitsun, Theory.”
Remember you heard it here first. 😌
I don't think there will be an interest rate cut on 9 May. However this is quite peripheral to your overall analysis! 4 July or 27 June remain a possibility. After that then not til late September (possibly)!
No chance of a rate cut this month (or I suspect this year),
As for election dates - unless a miracle occurs we aren’t going to see an election before October, to call one in late September means having everything wrapped up before the summer recess and no one wants an 8 week+ campaign
Nick Ferrari on LBC claims two Labour MPs are about to defect to Gorgeous's latest vehicle.
The MP for Coventry South might be a possibility.
I suspect that entirely depends on whether jezza is planning a new party or not. Rumours were Webbe and Tahir Ali but the latter has vehemently denied
Claudia Webbe is not currently a Labour MP, of course.
There are a few potential names if we are looking at "majors on Palestine" people, but we'll hear soon enough.
Yep. I think the rumours was 2 MPs 'one of whom is a serving Lab MP' which allows for Webbe to be the other one. Sultana, Whittome etc I wouldn't be surprised if he's angling at Abbott on the qt
Abbott's not a serving Labour MP either though.
Interesting that Ferrari was simply wrong. I wonder if he was fed false info by Galloway (how unimaginable) or someone backed off at the last minute.
Tahir Ali has denied it's him and vehemently so.
It would be so out of character for Gorgeous to stir the s***.
One of Sir Keir & Rosie Duffield is telling porkies
Starmer's treatment of Rosie Duffield echoes one of the low points of Corbyn's leadership of Labour, when the latter did nothing to help Luciana Berger when she was suffering from antisemitic attacks.
The size of the blade the Hainault killer was using this morning is disturbing. Big knives seem to be a trend nowadays
A pen knife isn't going to do you much good if the other guy has a short sword. There's obviously going to be a trend towards larger knives, unless the supply can be restricted.
I'm struggling to see the legal use of such a knife. Is it a display thing?
In the footage it looks to me like a Japanese sword - a katana or similar.
That would not have afaik a lawful use, as swords with curved blades >50cm are outright banned, with the exception of antiques and some iirc traditionally made. Reenacters use blunted swords aiui.
A sharpened sword would have no lawful use to be possessed in a normal public place, afaics - without something like "taking it to a pre-arranged appointment at a museum for an opinion".
Machete? Maybe chopping down vegetation on your farm.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Low inflation might be a symptom of weak demand combined with rising unemployment.Inflation has already fallen from 11% to just over 3% but has had little obvious effect on the polls. Why should any further decline to 2% make much difference?
It’s a huge symbolic moment in a febrile political atmosphere, meaning lots of voters will notice it and think the government have done a good job to stand cost of living crisis on its head so quickly.
Just to correct you, it’s energy behind the big drop. And the sequence of announcements is: 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%!
To exploit this, Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May, for 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
The final vote shares will be CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
I seem to remember a previous prediction of the election date voiced with great confidence, yet proving to be mistaken. Do you have no self doubt around this new prediction?
Some Labour people pushed May 2nd simply to call Sunak frit - that wasn’t me, and Rishi didn’t shut this down, keeping 2nd May option open a very long time, like he was considering it.
I’m not alone in thinking Autumn likely brings a worse result, and a better one gained in spring or this side of summer recess - ConHome seems convinced of this too. But is Sunak’s election team really all about divining/shaping the moment for the best possible result for the Conservative Party this year?or merely about hanging on to the bucking bronco of power as long as possible? If we are seriously looking to find the date for best possible result, we can look like mugs if Sunak is merely about clinging on for no good reason. I still believe he is/they are waiting for the best moment of the year.
I was wrong on May 2nd, but not the reasons for May 2nd. It was chosen on basis of, if Spring election is better than autumn, the bad local election night causes Tory civil war, VONCs etc making election impossible, makes it either May 2nd or Autumn, nothing in middle. That was the mistake, presuming rest of May/June would be Tory civil war. That civil war and strife obviously not going to happen now, neither the Mayor wipe out or the 500 seat losses, nor the big bout of infighting, and definitely not a VONC.
Add to 2nd May locals night now spun as okay result for Tories, 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good 2024 growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%! and Rwanda flights in the air - June and July dates are now an option if it is all about getting best possible result. To answer your question: yes. Tories are on for a far better result on July 4th - when the moment of optimism will be at its strongest based on this platform of news, than mixed picture on economic direction, boat crossings and Rwanda come November or December. Don’t you see it like this too?
So which day in June or July? 4th of July is decided by the fact Parliament will close on 23rd May anyway, so that suggests Monday 13th May as date calling it, with just over a week to tie Parliament session up, two weeks spring holiday/phoney campaign followed by normal campaign limit takes us to 4th July. Any later and voters will be going off on holiday, equally any earlier like a June date gets Whitsun holidays in the middle of the election campaign.
This is why I’m calling MoonRabbits 4th of July election, called on 13th May “Tits Out for Whitsun, Theory.”
Remember you heard it here first. 😌
I don't think there will be an interest rate cut on 9 May. However this is quite peripheral to your overall analysis! 4 July or 27 June remain a possibility. After that then not til late September (possibly)!
No chance of a rate cut this month (or I suspect this year),
As for election dates - unless a miracle occurs we aren’t going to see an election before October, to call one in late September means having everything wrapped up before the summer recess and no one wants an 8 week+ campaign
Yes all of this is reasonable.
I don't think people want a campaign running across the summer! (It might be popular on here but not generally)
Male politicians who chose to pander to activists issuing violent threats against their own female MPs enabled and emboldened the toxic culture @Keir_Starmer now claims to deplore. When you're part of the cause, you've got some brass neck putting yourself forward as a cure.
BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
On BF, Dems are 1.99 and Reps 2.2 to win.
Yet Biden is 2.34 and Trump 2.12
This shows that punters think that Biden is more likely to keel over before the election than Trump is to not stand due to his legal issues.
Male politicians who chose to pander to activists issuing violent threats against their own female MPs enabled and emboldened the toxic culture @Keir_Starmer now claims to deplore. When you're part of the cause, you've got some brass neck putting yourself forward as a cure.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
It's flat out illegal, and trivially easy to work out that it is though. So the council is paying once for the barriers, twice for the removal and maybe thrice for potential compensation, not to forget four times for a brief/silk or w/e.
Is it the council or the Woodland Trust which is responsible, please?
The Council in this case most likely. Normally it would be the Local Highways Authority (LHA) in England and Wales, which is the London Borough, or the County or Unitary City Council.
One strange thing is that the best recent infrastructure eg along former railway lines, or as part of developments, never seems to get designated as Public Rights of Way (ie footpaths, bridleways etc), which makes it difficult to hold the LHA to account under PROW (Highways Act 1980) law. And action under the Equality Act can only be taken by the individual discriminated against, which often lands it on poorer people with lower psychological resilience who will struggle to stump up a £400 Court Fee.
It's strange - near me I have a full set of pedestrian walkways with underpasses built around a motorway junction in 1967-8 which are not dedicated as PROWs. Which the local conservative MP wanting a bigger roundabout described in Parliament as essentially a complication that is in his way.
On this one I am jealous of the legal situation in Scotland.
Thanks for that. Most interesting.
On your last point, tut, you'll upset the PBScotch Experts who are convinced that the Scottish Parliament never produces good legislation. On which: freeholds/feu duties, anyone?
What about freeholds?
Are we talking the leasehold issue, here?
I think the boil can be lanced, but I don't think simply making them all go for commonhold will necessarily be more efficient. I think we have discussed that previously.
A place to start would be by outlawing leasehold in the case of single occupancy newbuild properties, and take it back to say such built since 2000 or 1990.
There's also an issue about ensuring high quality maintenance. Think for example areas of London that owe their character to standards set for leaseholders by historic estates.
BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
On BF, Dems are 1.99 and Reps 2.2 to win.
Yet Biden is 2.34 and Trump 2.12
This shows that punters think that Biden is more likely to keel over before the election than Trump is to not stand due to his legal issues.
Is this right?
There's also a chance that Trump keels over, or that Biden stands aside. Or, at least, punters might think so.
Male politicians who chose to pander to activists issuing violent threats against their own female MPs enabled and emboldened the toxic culture @Keir_Starmer now claims to deplore. When you're part of the cause, you've got some brass neck putting yourself forward as a cure.
The size of the blade the Hainault killer was using this morning is disturbing. Big knives seem to be a trend nowadays
A pen knife isn't going to do you much good if the other guy has a short sword. There's obviously going to be a trend towards larger knives, unless the supply can be restricted.
I'm struggling to see the legal use of such a knife. Is it a display thing?
In the footage it looks to me like a Japanese sword - a katana or similar.
That would not have afaik a lawful use, as swords with curved blades >50cm are outright banned, with the exception of antiques and some iirc traditionally made. Reenacters use blunted swords aiui.
A sharpened sword would have no lawful use to be possessed in a normal public place, afaics - without something like "taking it to a pre-arranged appointment at a museum for an opinion".
Machete? Maybe chopping down vegetation on your farm.
I haven't tracked events, but in those circs I could see him being shot down by armed police if he did not obey instructions.
Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?
Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:
“I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Low inflation might be a symptom of weak demand combined with rising unemployment.Inflation has already fallen from 11% to just over 3% but has had little obvious effect on the polls. Why should any further decline to 2% make much difference?
It’s a huge symbolic moment in a febrile political atmosphere, meaning lots of voters will notice it and think the government have done a good job to stand cost of living crisis on its head so quickly.
Just to correct you, it’s energy behind the big drop. And the sequence of announcements is: 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%!
To exploit this, Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May, for 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
The final vote shares will be CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
I seem to remember a previous prediction of the election date voiced with great confidence, yet proving to be mistaken. Do you have no self doubt around this new prediction?
Some Labour people pushed May 2nd simply to call Sunak frit - that wasn’t me, and Rishi didn’t shut this down, keeping 2nd May option open a very long time, like he was considering it.
I’m not alone in thinking Autumn likely brings a worse result, and a better one gained in spring or this side of summer recess - ConHome seems convinced of this too. But is Sunak’s election team really all about divining/shaping the moment for the best possible result for the Conservative Party this year?or merely about hanging on to the bucking bronco of power as long as possible? If we are seriously looking to find the date for best possible result, we can look like mugs if Sunak is merely about clinging on for no good reason. I still believe he is/they are waiting for the best moment of the year.
I was wrong on May 2nd, but not the reasons for May 2nd. It was chosen on basis of, if Spring election is better than autumn, the bad local election night causes Tory civil war, VONCs etc making election impossible, makes it either May 2nd or Autumn, nothing in middle. That was the mistake, presuming rest of May/June would be Tory civil war. That civil war and strife obviously not going to happen now, neither the Mayor wipe out or the 500 seat losses, nor the big bout of infighting, and definitely not a VONC.
Add to 2nd May locals night now spun as okay result for Tories, 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good 2024 growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%! and Rwanda flights in the air - June and July dates are now an option if it is all about getting best possible result. To answer your question: yes. Tories are on for a far better result on July 4th - when the moment of optimism will be at its strongest based on this platform of news, than mixed picture on economic direction, boat crossings and Rwanda come November or December. Don’t you see it like this too?
So which day in June or July? 4th of July is decided by the fact Parliament will close on 23rd May anyway, so that suggests Monday 13th May as date calling it, with just over a week to tie Parliament session up, two weeks spring holiday/phoney campaign followed by normal campaign limit takes us to 4th July. Any later and voters will be going off on holiday, equally any earlier like a June date gets Whitsun holidays in the middle of the election campaign.
This is why I’m calling MoonRabbits 4th of July election, called on 13th May “Tits Out for Whitsun, Theory.”
Remember you heard it here first. 😌
I don't think there will be an interest rate cut on 9 May. However this is quite peripheral to your overall analysis! 4 July or 27 June remain a possibility. After that then not til late September (possibly)!
If BoE don’t cut interest rates a mere 0.25% and one week later inflation falls below 2%, then… well… BoE will be in for some serious stick, won’t they? I don’t want to come over all Paul Merson, but like I mean, some SERIOUS stick. Proper stick like, you know?
If not June 27th or July 4th, it’s going to be November or into December.
But we have both been saying spring or early summer gets better result than Autumn, and at no point were we wrong. 👍🏻
BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
On BF, Dems are 1.99 and Reps 2.2 to win.
Yet Biden is 2.34 and Trump 2.12
This shows that punters think that Biden is more likely to keel over before the election than Trump is to not stand due to his legal issues.
Is this right?
There's also a chance that Trump keels over, or that Biden stands aside. Or, at least, punters might think so.
So Rayner could have put the wrong house down as her primary residence but because of the refurbishments wouldn’t owe any capital gains tax anyway . So can you still be charged for the initial false declaration even if it leads to no capital gain .
BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
So he is now in violation of his pre-trial release conditions in all the cases.
In NY I make that that he is formally now on notice that further violations of Court Orders could lead to the small room with the bucket.
I think he has further violations drawn to the attention of the Court by the prosecutors which have not been considered at a hearing yet.
Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.
I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive
But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.
So he'll look like a titan.
Personally I don’t think he will out perform Sunak in the debates.
I think Sunak would do quite well in the debates: while he's been a poor leader, he's no idiot, and is used to thinking on his feet. He'll also do better in an environment where he just needs to calmly keep repeating a few talking points. And, of course, his dullness will work to his advantage: what great personal failing can be laid at Sunak's feet.
This, of course, depends on there being debates. With Starmer twenty points up, why would he risk them?
“By the end of my autumnal travels, it occurred to me that there is one solution: the Bhutanese example. You ration travel, by time and money: you start to make people pay simply to get into cities, regions, nations”
I bow to no-one in my futurology and extrapolations, but that is notably prescient: as Venice starts to charge simply for Venice
Why should only wealthy people be able to travel to interesting places?
Because the places that everyone wants to go will have to be rationed SOMEHOW. Read that brilliantly prescient article by the much-missed @SeanT
The obvious way to ration them is by price - so that the money can be used to maintain the sites and bribe the locals to tolerate the influx
I guess you could ration them by lottery ticket but let’s face it that’s not going to happen. Humans are not that generous and also you need to recompense local traders who will lose from diminished custom
So yes travel to the really lovely places will be limited to rich people and professional travel writers. Good. Kick out all the smelly plebs, they’ve ruined Mont St Michel. I am already leaving. Ugh
Tried to get into the BM last week to see the Romans exhibition. Needless to say, being a scholar and a gent, I had not thought to buy a ticket in advance. I expect to walk in there at a time of my own choosing, with a polite nod on the way from a uniformed commissionaire. So I was unprepared to find the crowd in Gt Russell Street resembling the aftermath of a north-London derby, heaving blindly in all directions, bemoaning each other's presence in every known language except English. Any pretence that the BM is a place of learning or scholarship has long been abandoned. We may as well sell the Elgin Marbles to the Arabs and be done with them.
Strangely enough I made my first ever visit (yes, I know) to the BM mid last week.
Caught the train from Flatland Central, arrived KX about midday, walked through the main entrance waving my prebooked ticket (free) and was in. A bit busy in Egypt but I'm not that keen on mummies anyway. Expected a bit of a scrum but no, had the Chessmen and Sutton Hoo to myself. Bit disappointed the neolithic stuff was closed, but hey, there's too much to see anyway.
It may be full of loot, but what loot! See it before it goes.
Nick Wallis report on this morning's PO proceedings.
"Hugh Flemington is a very careful man. The former Post Office Head of Legal spent his morning in the Inquiry witness chair characterising his involvement in the Post Office scandal as accidental, at best.
The problem was, the documents do seem to suggest he was involved at some level, though he couldn’t recall how. He didn’t remember doing things and mostly he didn’t remember not doing things and if he didn’t do something it wasn’t a failing on his part at the time, it just hadn’t occurred to him at the time.
The tone was set quite early on when barrister for the Inquiry Sam Stevens asked if Mr Flemington knew that the standard of proof in a criminal trial was that a jury had to be sure of guilt. Mr Flemington wasn’t sure, telling Stevens he was reliant on comedy exploding clown car Jarnail Singh for his education in criminal law. Stevens was a little taken aback, as well he might be. If Flemington, a senior lawyer, was going to tell the Inquiry he was not able to confirm he knew what the criminal standard of proof was, it was going to be a long morning."
Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.
I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive
But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.
So he'll look like a titan.
Personally I don’t think he will out perform Sunak in the debates.
I think Sunak would do quite well in the debates: while he's been a poor leader, he's no idiot, and is used to thinking on his feet. He'll also do better in an environment where he just needs to calmly keep repeating a few talking points. And, of course, his dullness will work to his advantage: what great personal failing can be laid at Sunak's feet.
This, of course, depends on there being debates. With Starmer twenty points up, why would he risk them?
May tried that and it didn’t end well . He has to do the debates and personally I think he’ll wipe the floor with Sunak .
The size of the blade the Hainault killer was using this morning is disturbing. Big knives seem to be a trend nowadays
A pen knife isn't going to do you much good if the other guy has a short sword. There's obviously going to be a trend towards larger knives, unless the supply can be restricted.
I'm struggling to see the legal use of such a knife. Is it a display thing?
In the footage it looks to me like a Japanese sword - a katana or similar.
That would not have afaik a lawful use, as swords with curved blades >50cm are outright banned, with the exception of antiques and some iirc traditionally made. Reenacters use blunted swords aiui.
A sharpened sword would have no lawful use to be possessed in a normal public place, afaics - without something like "taking it to a pre-arranged appointment at a museum for an opinion".
Machete? Maybe chopping down vegetation on your farm.
Japanese sword. Like in Shogun on Disney. That’s really good. Fallout was a blast as well, who enjoyed that?
I learnt things on Manhunt on Apple that was new to me. Did you know Lincoln was assassinated a week after he won the war? And it wasn’t opportunist, as they tried to assassinate Secretary of State and Vice President at the same time.
Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.
I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive
But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.
So he'll look like a titan.
Personally I don’t think he will out perform Sunak in the debates.
I think Sunak would do quite well in the debates: while he's been a poor leader, he's no idiot, and is used to thinking on his feet. He'll also do better in an environment where he just needs to calmly keep repeating a few talking points. And, of course, his dullness will work to his advantage: what great personal failing can be laid at Sunak's feet.
This, of course, depends on there being debates. With Starmer twenty points up, why would he risk them?
May tried that and it didn’t end well . He has to do the debates and personally I think he’ll wipe the floor with Sunak .
Nick Wallis report on this morning's PO proceedings.
"Hugh Flemington is a very careful man. The former Post Office Head of Legal spent his morning in the Inquiry witness chair characterising his involvement in the Post Office scandal as accidental, at best.
The problem was, the documents do seem to suggest he was involved at some level, though he couldn’t recall how. He didn’t remember doing things and mostly he didn’t remember not doing things and if he didn’t do something it wasn’t a failing on his part at the time, it just hadn’t occurred to him at the time.
The tone was set quite early on when barrister for the Inquiry Sam Stevens asked if Mr Flemington knew that the standard of proof in a criminal trial was that a jury had to be sure of guilt. Mr Flemington wasn’t sure, telling Stevens he was reliant on comedy exploding clown car Jarnail Singh for his education in criminal law. Stevens was a little taken aback, as well he might be. If Flemington, a senior lawyer, was going to tell the Inquiry he was not able to confirm he knew what the criminal standard of proof was, it was going to be a long morning."
Nick Wallis report on this morning's PO proceedings.
"Hugh Flemington is a very careful man. The former Post Office Head of Legal spent his morning in the Inquiry witness chair characterising his involvement in the Post Office scandal as accidental, at best.
The problem was, the documents do seem to suggest he was involved at some level, though he couldn’t recall how. He didn’t remember doing things and mostly he didn’t remember not doing things and if he didn’t do something it wasn’t a failing on his part at the time, it just hadn’t occurred to him at the time.
The tone was set quite early on when barrister for the Inquiry Sam Stevens asked if Mr Flemington knew that the standard of proof in a criminal trial was that a jury had to be sure of guilt. Mr Flemington wasn’t sure, telling Stevens he was reliant on comedy exploding clown car Jarnail Singh for his education in criminal law. Stevens was a little taken aback, as well he might be. If Flemington, a senior lawyer, was going to tell the Inquiry he was not able to confirm he knew what the criminal standard of proof was, it was going to be a long morning."
Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.
I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive
But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.
So he'll look like a titan.
Personally I don’t think he will out perform Sunak in the debates.
I think Sunak would do quite well in the debates: while he's been a poor leader, he's no idiot, and is used to thinking on his feet. He'll also do better in an environment where he just needs to calmly keep repeating a few talking points. And, of course, his dullness will work to his advantage: what great personal failing can be laid at Sunak's feet.
This, of course, depends on there being debates. With Starmer twenty points up, why would he risk them?
Do you remember when Sunak stood in for Johnson at the mass debate? I thought he was amongst the worst of the lot.
The size of the blade the Hainault killer was using this morning is disturbing. Big knives seem to be a trend nowadays
A pen knife isn't going to do you much good if the other guy has a short sword. There's obviously going to be a trend towards larger knives, unless the supply can be restricted.
I'm struggling to see the legal use of such a knife. Is it a display thing?
In the footage it looks to me like a Japanese sword - a katana or similar.
That would not have afaik a lawful use, as swords with curved blades >50cm are outright banned, with the exception of antiques and some iirc traditionally made. Reenacters use blunted swords aiui.
A sharpened sword would have no lawful use to be possessed in a normal public place, afaics - without something like "taking it to a pre-arranged appointment at a museum for an opinion".
Machete? Maybe chopping down vegetation on your farm.
I haven't tracked events, but in those circs I could see him being shot down by armed police if he did not obey instructions.
They tasered him. I think he's very lucky, and it's worth commending the police for not killing him.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Low inflation might be a symptom of weak demand combined with rising unemployment.Inflation has already fallen from 11% to just over 3% but has had little obvious effect on the polls. Why should any further decline to 2% make much difference?
It’s a huge symbolic moment in a febrile political atmosphere, meaning lots of voters will notice it and think the government have done a good job to stand cost of living crisis on its head so quickly.
Just to correct you, it’s energy behind the big drop. And the sequence of announcements is: 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%!
To exploit this, Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May, for 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
The final vote shares will be CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
I seem to remember a previous prediction of the election date voiced with great confidence, yet proving to be mistaken. Do you have no self doubt around this new prediction?
Some Labour people pushed May 2nd simply to call Sunak frit - that wasn’t me, and Rishi didn’t shut this down, keeping 2nd May option open a very long time, like he was considering it.
I’m not alone in thinking Autumn likely brings a worse result, and a better one gained in spring or this side of summer recess - ConHome seems convinced of this too. But is Sunak’s election team really all about divining/shaping the moment for the best possible result for the Conservative Party this year?or merely about hanging on to the bucking bronco of power as long as possible? If we are seriously looking to find the date for best possible result, we can look like mugs if Sunak is merely about clinging on for no good reason. I still believe he is/they are waiting for the best moment of the year.
I was wrong on May 2nd, but not the reasons for May 2nd. It was chosen on basis of, if Spring election is better than autumn, the bad local election night causes Tory civil war, VONCs etc making election impossible, makes it either May 2nd or Autumn, nothing in middle. That was the mistake, presuming rest of May/June would be Tory civil war. That civil war and strife obviously not going to happen now, neither the Mayor wipe out or the 500 seat losses, nor the big bout of infighting, and definitely not a VONC.
Add to 2nd May locals night now spun as okay result for Tories, 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good 2024 growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%! and Rwanda flights in the air - June and July dates are now an option if it is all about getting best possible result. To answer your question: yes. Tories are on for a far better result on July 4th - when the moment of optimism will be at its strongest based on this platform of news, than mixed picture on economic direction, boat crossings and Rwanda come November or December. Don’t you see it like this too?
So which day in June or July? 4th of July is decided by the fact Parliament will close on 23rd May anyway, so that suggests Monday 13th May as date calling it, with just over a week to tie Parliament session up, two weeks spring holiday/phoney campaign followed by normal campaign limit takes us to 4th July. Any later and voters will be going off on holiday, equally any earlier like a June date gets Whitsun holidays in the middle of the election campaign.
This is why I’m calling MoonRabbits 4th of July election, called on 13th May “Tits Out for Whitsun, Theory.”
Remember you heard it here first. 😌
I don't think there will be an interest rate cut on 9 May. However this is quite peripheral to your overall analysis! 4 July or 27 June remain a possibility. After that then not til late September (possibly)!
If BoE don’t cut interest rates a mere 0.25% and one week later inflation falls below 2%, then… well… BoE will be in for some serious stick, won’t they? I don’t want to come over all Paul Merson, but like I mean, some SERIOUS stick. Proper stick like, you know?
If not June 27th or July 4th, it’s going to be November or into December.
But we have both been saying spring or early summer gets better result than Autumn, and at no point were we wrong. 👍🏻
Don't forget that the resurgence of inflation is coming because of uncertainty over commodity prices and, specifically in the UK, high pay settlements and a large increase in the minimum wage.
BOE will be aware of this so won't be rushing to cut the rate.
But yes CPI will hit the 2% target for April. And will be there...for the time being.
So Rayner could have put the wrong house down as her primary residence but because of the refurbishments wouldn’t owe any capital gains tax anyway . So can you still be charged for the initial false declaration even if it leads to no capital gain .
“Charged” is probably the wrong word here anyway. This is a matter for HMRC not the police. There can be financial penalties for careless or negligent tax filings but they tend not to be applied in most cases if there’s not a tax underpayment.
Nick Wallis report on this morning's PO proceedings.
"Hugh Flemington is a very careful man. The former Post Office Head of Legal spent his morning in the Inquiry witness chair characterising his involvement in the Post Office scandal as accidental, at best.
The problem was, the documents do seem to suggest he was involved at some level, though he couldn’t recall how. He didn’t remember doing things and mostly he didn’t remember not doing things and if he didn’t do something it wasn’t a failing on his part at the time, it just hadn’t occurred to him at the time.
The tone was set quite early on when barrister for the Inquiry Sam Stevens asked if Mr Flemington knew that the standard of proof in a criminal trial was that a jury had to be sure of guilt. Mr Flemington wasn’t sure, telling Stevens he was reliant on comedy exploding clown car Jarnail Singh for his education in criminal law. Stevens was a little taken aback, as well he might be. If Flemington, a senior lawyer, was going to tell the Inquiry he was not able to confirm he knew what the criminal standard of proof was, it was going to be a long morning."
Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?
Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:
“I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."
Did Khan really say that, on the day that yet another attacker swinging a large knife on the streets of London killed someone - a child - seemingly at random?
There’s Hall’s last-minute social media campaign video ready to go, clippings of all the headlines of knife crime in London, set to the there music of “The Wire”. That’s Sadiq Khan’s Lawless London.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Interesting because the WM is probably slightly more working-class than the EM.
Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?
Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:
“I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."
Did Khan really say that, on the day that yet another attacker swinging a large knife on the streets of London killed someone - a child - seemingly at random?
There’s Hall’s last-minute social media campaign video ready to go, clippings of all the headlines of knife crime in London, set to the there music of “The Wire”. That’s Sadiq Khan’s Lawless London.
He didn’t say it today, no. I think the interview/debate was last week. Unfortunate for him to have said what he did though, given what happened this morning.
Bad morning for him. I can’t help but think that when public see more of him, he could mess this up
What could be dangerous is that Rishi makes some headway on the economy and Rwanda and then starts successfully spinning himself as Britain's 'Comeback Kid'. I think elements of Labour and the Left might start spreading panic at that point - either out of genuinely concern or devilry - and Sir Keir might seriously feel the pressure.
I have to factor in my intense dislike of Sir Keir, but to me he is just as shifty and dishonest as Boris… and he doesn't charm ANYONE.
Whenever an interviewer exposes his double standards or non answers he tells them off as if they should know better, or grins like Alan Partridge when a guest embarrasses him. Sunak seems a lot more of a nice guy & has a youthful energy that should contrast well in a one vs one with Sir Keir’s overweight old man look
There's nothing wrong with an overweight old man!
Starmer is wooden, he can't think on his feet, but in four years as LOTO he's managed to avoid a Peppa Pig grade event.
A shifty smile is less off-putting than an exasperated Sunak losing his s*** when some scumbag state school peasant interviewer hits him with a curved ball question.
"UK-Ireland migration dispute deepens as Dublin prepares legislation Irish justice minister says she will push ahead despite Rishi Sunak insisting Britain will not take back asylum seekers" (£)
Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?
Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:
“I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."
Did Khan really say that, on the day that yet another attacker swinging a large knife on the streets of London killed someone - a child - seemingly at random?
There’s Hall’s last-minute social media campaign video ready to go, clippings of all the headlines of knife crime in London, set to the there music of “The Wire”. That’s Sadiq Khan’s Lawless London.
He didn’t say it today, no. I think the interview/debate was last week. Unfortunate for him to have said what he did though, given what happened this morning.
Ah okay, so he said it with a week to go, knowing that there was statistically reasonable chance of another stabbing/slashing going to happen between then and the election?
Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?
Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:
“I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."
Did Khan really say that, on the day that yet another attacker swinging a large knife on the streets of London killed someone - a child - seemingly at random?
There’s Hall’s last-minute social media campaign video ready to go, clippings of all the headlines of knife crime in London, set to the there music of “The Wire”. That’s Sadiq Khan’s Lawless London.
He didn’t say it today, no. I think the interview/debate was last week. Unfortunate for him to have said what he did though, given what happened this morning.
Ah okay, so he said it with a week to go, knowing that there was statistically reasonable chance of another stabbing/slashing going to happen between then and the election?
Particularly since there are a number of incidents with large blades, every year.
There was a YouTube video, a year or 2 back with a bunch of police officers trying to deal with one such. Pepper spray wasn't doing anything, and one police officer was using a dustbin lid he'd grabbed as a shield.
Nick Wallis report on this morning's PO proceedings.
"Hugh Flemington is a very careful man. The former Post Office Head of Legal spent his morning in the Inquiry witness chair characterising his involvement in the Post Office scandal as accidental, at best.
The problem was, the documents do seem to suggest he was involved at some level, though he couldn’t recall how. He didn’t remember doing things and mostly he didn’t remember not doing things and if he didn’t do something it wasn’t a failing on his part at the time, it just hadn’t occurred to him at the time.
The tone was set quite early on when barrister for the Inquiry Sam Stevens asked if Mr Flemington knew that the standard of proof in a criminal trial was that a jury had to be sure of guilt. Mr Flemington wasn’t sure, telling Stevens he was reliant on comedy exploding clown car Jarnail Singh for his education in criminal law. Stevens was a little taken aback, as well he might be. If Flemington, a senior lawyer, was going to tell the Inquiry he was not able to confirm he knew what the criminal standard of proof was, it was going to be a long morning."
"UK-Ireland migration dispute deepens as Dublin prepares legislation Irish justice minister says she will push ahead despite Rishi Sunak insisting Britain will not take back asylum seekers" (£)
Going back to my interest rates are rising news from earlier.
Just had an email telling me that the interest on my Halifax credit cards is going up - now I don’t pay any interest but it shows the current direction, borrowing money is getting more expensive
Jesus, it gets worse. He is such a shifty fucker! How many chances were he and his team given to say that cutting off food and electricity to Gaza was wrong in this thread of videos? And not once did they. Now he’s trying to pretend he misspoke
Keir claims he did not say Israel had the right to cut off power & water to Gaza, & says he clarified what he meant pretty quickly.
If he misspoke why did shadow ministers go on TV after the LBC interview & defend what he said, & why did he take 9 days to 'clarify' his comments
Bad morning for him. I can’t help but think that when public see more of him, he could mess this up
What could be dangerous is that Rishi makes some headway on the economy and Rwanda and then starts successfully spinning himself as Britain's 'Comeback Kid'. I think elements of Labour and the Left might start spreading panic at that point - either out of genuinely concern or devilry - and Sir Keir might seriously feel the pressure.
I have to factor in my intense dislike of Sir Keir, but to me he is just as shifty and dishonest as Boris… and he doesn't charm ANYONE.
Whenever an interviewer exposes his double standards or non answers he tells them off as if they should know better, or grins like Alan Partridge when a guest embarrasses him. Sunak seems a lot more of a nice guy & has a youthful energy that should contrast well in a one vs one with Sir Keir’s overweight old man look
There's nothing wrong with an overweight old man!
Not according to the BMJ.
https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/16/bmjebm-2023-112583 ...In this study, we comprehensively investigated the associations between genetic risk and lifestyle risk factors regressed against lifespan in 353 742 participants of the UK Biobank cohort. Our results indicated that a high genetic risk was associated with a 21% increased risk of death compared with a low genetic risk, independent of lifestyle factors. In contrast, an unfavourable lifestyle was associated with an approximately 78% increased risk of death compared with a favourable lifestyle within and across genetic risk categories. Furthermore, the genetic risk of a shorter lifespan or premature death might be offset by a favourable lifestyle by approximately 62%. Participants with a genetic predisposition to a short lifespan and an unfavourable lifestyle had a 2.04 times higher death risk compared with those with a genetic predisposition to a long lifespan and a favourable lifestyle. Our study also indicated that adherence to healthy lifestyles could substantially attenuate the loss of lifespan for individuals with genetic susceptibility to a shorter lifespan. In addition, we constituted the optimal lifestyle combination containing four lifestyle factors, including no current smoking, regular physical activity, adequate sleep duration, and a healthy diet, to bring better benefits for prolonging human lifespan.
To our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the joint association of genetic risk and lifestyle factors with human lifespan...
Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.
I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive
But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.
So he'll look like a titan.
Personally I don’t think he will out perform Sunak in the debates.
I think Sunak would do quite well in the debates: while he's been a poor leader, he's no idiot, and is used to thinking on his feet. He'll also do better in an environment where he just needs to calmly keep repeating a few talking points. And, of course, his dullness will work to his advantage: what great personal failing can be laid at Sunak's feet.
This, of course, depends on there being debates. With Starmer twenty points up, why would he risk them?
May tried that and it didn’t end well . He has to do the debates and personally I think he’ll wipe the floor with Sunak .
Yes, I think so. They'll have a Man against Boy feel about them.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but do you think Sadiq Khan deliberately called Susan Hall ‘The Tory Candidate’ because she is more popular than the Tories in London?
Sadiq Khan confronted over people "running around with machetes" on the streets of London earlier this week:
“I think the Tory candidate should stop watching The Wire."
Did Khan really say that, on the day that yet another attacker swinging a large knife on the streets of London killed someone - a child - seemingly at random?
There’s Hall’s last-minute social media campaign video ready to go, clippings of all the headlines of knife crime in London, set to the there music of “The Wire”. That’s Sadiq Khan’s Lawless London.
Filled in my postal ballot today. Bit too late to post so I’ll drop it off at the polling station later.
It being in alphabetical order, the layout of the polling card definitely helps “Binface, Count” who is right near the top of the paper. As it does - not that this matters much - “Blackie, Rob” for the Lib Dems. Hall and Khan are near the middle with little positional advantage or disadvantage vis a vis each other.
It’s hard to imagine how someone with zero charisma can lie as Sir Keir does and get away with it. Maybe I was wrong that you had to be a lot of personality to get away with it.
All those centrist commentators who spoke loftily about how Donald Trump and Boris Johnson shamelessly lied about things they said and did, and how damaging that was to democracy.
Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.
I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive
But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.
So he'll look like a titan.
Personally I don’t think he will out perform Sunak in the debates.
I think Sunak would do quite well in the debates: while he's been a poor leader, he's no idiot, and is used to thinking on his feet. He'll also do better in an environment where he just needs to calmly keep repeating a few talking points. And, of course, his dullness will work to his advantage: what great personal failing can be laid at Sunak's feet.
This, of course, depends on there being debates. With Starmer twenty points up, why would he risk them?
May tried that and it didn’t end well . He has to do the debates and personally I think he’ll wipe the floor with Sunak .
Yes, I think so. They'll have a Man against Boy feel about them.
You don't think it would be unseemly for Rishi Sunak to pull rank like that? He needs to treat Starmer as a candidate with equal standing.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Interesting because the WM is probably slightly more working-class than the EM.
Huh?
Are you sure? Nonetheless we do seem to be far keener to categorise social class than we were 14 years ago. Is that the legacy of your Government?
Bad morning for him. I can’t help but think that when public see more of him, he could mess this up
What could be dangerous is that Rishi makes some headway on the economy and Rwanda and then starts successfully spinning himself as Britain's 'Comeback Kid'. I think elements of Labour and the Left might start spreading panic at that point - either out of genuinely concern or devilry - and Sir Keir might seriously feel the pressure.
I have to factor in my intense dislike of Sir Keir, but to me he is just as shifty and dishonest as Boris… and he doesn't charm ANYONE.
Whenever an interviewer exposes his double standards or non answers he tells them off as if they should know better, or grins like Alan Partridge when a guest embarrasses him. Sunak seems a lot more of a nice guy & has a youthful energy that should contrast well in a one vs one with Sir Keir’s overweight old man look
There's nothing wrong with an overweight old man!
Not according to the BMJ.
https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/16/bmjebm-2023-112583 ...In this study, we comprehensively investigated the associations between genetic risk and lifestyle risk factors regressed against lifespan in 353 742 participants of the UK Biobank cohort. Our results indicated that a high genetic risk was associated with a 21% increased risk of death compared with a low genetic risk, independent of lifestyle factors. In contrast, an unfavourable lifestyle was associated with an approximately 78% increased risk of death compared with a favourable lifestyle within and across genetic risk categories. Furthermore, the genetic risk of a shorter lifespan or premature death might be offset by a favourable lifestyle by approximately 62%. Participants with a genetic predisposition to a short lifespan and an unfavourable lifestyle had a 2.04 times higher death risk compared with those with a genetic predisposition to a long lifespan and a favourable lifestyle. Our study also indicated that adherence to healthy lifestyles could substantially attenuate the loss of lifespan for individuals with genetic susceptibility to a shorter lifespan. In addition, we constituted the optimal lifestyle combination containing four lifestyle factors, including no current smoking, regular physical activity, adequate sleep duration, and a healthy diet, to bring better benefits for prolonging human lifespan.
To our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the joint association of genetic risk and lifestyle factors with human lifespan...
There's so much nonsense that clouds any political issue that it can be hard to know what the truth of the issue is. For example, given the recent comments from Sunak about accepting returned asylum seekers from Ireland, the statement in the Dail today from the Taoiseach was surprising.
Simon Harris said there was a Common Travel Area between Ireland and Britain and there is an operational agreement in place around returning asylum seekers in both directions.
But of course there is already an agreement on returning asylum seekers. We know this. The reason we know this is that the proposed Irish legislation, so very similar to the recent ridiculous Bill passed by Parliament, is to override a court judgment that Britain was not a safe country to return asylum seekers to. Such a case was only brought because someone was trying to prevent their return to the UK.
So, once the local elections are done, and the Dail has passed it's absurd statement of fact, we can expect that asylum seekers will be returned from Ireland to Britain.
Bad morning for him. I can’t help but think that when public see more of him, he could mess this up
What could be dangerous is that Rishi makes some headway on the economy and Rwanda and then starts successfully spinning himself as Britain's 'Comeback Kid'. I think elements of Labour and the Left might start spreading panic at that point - either out of genuinely concern or devilry - and Sir Keir might seriously feel the pressure.
I have to factor in my intense dislike of Sir Keir, but to me he is just as shifty and dishonest as Boris… and he doesn't charm ANYONE.
Whenever an interviewer exposes his double standards or non answers he tells them off as if they should know better, or grins like Alan Partridge when a guest embarrasses him. Sunak seems a lot more of a nice guy & has a youthful energy that should contrast well in a one vs one with Sir Keir’s overweight old man look
There's nothing wrong with an overweight old man!
Not according to the BMJ.
https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/16/bmjebm-2023-112583 ...In this study, we comprehensively investigated the associations between genetic risk and lifestyle risk factors regressed against lifespan in 353 742 participants of the UK Biobank cohort. Our results indicated that a high genetic risk was associated with a 21% increased risk of death compared with a low genetic risk, independent of lifestyle factors. In contrast, an unfavourable lifestyle was associated with an approximately 78% increased risk of death compared with a favourable lifestyle within and across genetic risk categories. Furthermore, the genetic risk of a shorter lifespan or premature death might be offset by a favourable lifestyle by approximately 62%. Participants with a genetic predisposition to a short lifespan and an unfavourable lifestyle had a 2.04 times higher death risk compared with those with a genetic predisposition to a long lifespan and a favourable lifestyle. Our study also indicated that adherence to healthy lifestyles could substantially attenuate the loss of lifespan for individuals with genetic susceptibility to a shorter lifespan. In addition, we constituted the optimal lifestyle combination containing four lifestyle factors, including no current smoking, regular physical activity, adequate sleep duration, and a healthy diet, to bring better benefits for prolonging human lifespan.
To our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the joint association of genetic risk and lifestyle factors with human lifespan...
Bad morning for him. I can’t help but think that when public see more of him, he could mess this up
What could be dangerous is that Rishi makes some headway on the economy and Rwanda and then starts successfully spinning himself as Britain's 'Comeback Kid'. I think elements of Labour and the Left might start spreading panic at that point - either out of genuinely concern or devilry - and Sir Keir might seriously feel the pressure.
I have to factor in my intense dislike of Sir Keir, but to me he is just as shifty and dishonest as Boris… and he doesn't charm ANYONE.
Whenever an interviewer exposes his double standards or non answers he tells them off as if they should know better, or grins like Alan Partridge when a guest embarrasses him. Sunak seems a lot more of a nice guy & has a youthful energy that should contrast well in a one vs one with Sir Keir’s overweight old man look
There's nothing wrong with an overweight old man!
Not according to the BMJ.
https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/16/bmjebm-2023-112583 ...In this study, we comprehensively investigated the associations between genetic risk and lifestyle risk factors regressed against lifespan in 353 742 participants of the UK Biobank cohort. Our results indicated that a high genetic risk was associated with a 21% increased risk of death compared with a low genetic risk, independent of lifestyle factors. In contrast, an unfavourable lifestyle was associated with an approximately 78% increased risk of death compared with a favourable lifestyle within and across genetic risk categories. Furthermore, the genetic risk of a shorter lifespan or premature death might be offset by a favourable lifestyle by approximately 62%. Participants with a genetic predisposition to a short lifespan and an unfavourable lifestyle had a 2.04 times higher death risk compared with those with a genetic predisposition to a long lifespan and a favourable lifestyle. Our study also indicated that adherence to healthy lifestyles could substantially attenuate the loss of lifespan for individuals with genetic susceptibility to a shorter lifespan. In addition, we constituted the optimal lifestyle combination containing four lifestyle factors, including no current smoking, regular physical activity, adequate sleep duration, and a healthy diet, to bring better benefits for prolonging human lifespan.
To our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the joint association of genetic risk and lifestyle factors with human lifespan...
Like Boris Johnson, it's all muscle and not fat!
It's quite an interesting bit of research, in roughly quantifying the balance between genetic factors and lifestyle. And quite encouraging in how much you can improve your likely outcomes.
There's so much nonsense that clouds any political issue that it can be hard to know what the truth of the issue is. For example, given the recent comments from Sunak about accepting returned asylum seekers from Ireland, the statement in the Dail today from the Taoiseach was surprising.
Simon Harris said there was a Common Travel Area between Ireland and Britain and there is an operational agreement in place around returning asylum seekers in both directions.
But of course there is already an agreement on returning asylum seekers. We know this. The reason we know this is that the proposed Irish legislation, so very similar to the recent ridiculous Bill passed by Parliament, is to override a court judgment that Britain was not a safe country to return asylum seekers to. Such a case was only brought because someone was trying to prevent their return to the UK.
So, once the local elections are done, and the Dail has passed it's absurd statement of fact, we can expect that asylum seekers will be returned from Ireland to Britain.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
AI-enabled electrocardiography alert intervention and all-cause mortality: a pragmatic randomized clinical trial
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02961-4 The early identification of vulnerable patients has the potential to improve outcomes but poses a substantial challenge in clinical practice. This study evaluated the ability of an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) to identify hospitalized patients with a high risk of mortality in a multisite randomized controlled trial involving 39 physicians and 15,965 patients. The AI-ECG alert intervention included an AI report and warning messages delivered to the physicians, flagging patients predicted to be at high risk of mortality. The trial met its primary outcome, finding that implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality within 90 days: 3.6% patients in the intervention group died within 90 days, compared to 4.3% in the control group (4.3%) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70–0.99). A prespecified analysis showed that reduction in all-cause mortality associated with the AI-ECG alert was observed primarily in patients with high-risk ECGs (HR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.53–0.90). In analyses of secondary outcomes, patients in the intervention group with high-risk ECGs received increased levels of intensive care compared to the control group; for the high-risk ECG group of patients, implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cardiac death (0.2% in the intervention arm versus 2.4% in the control arm, HR = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.01–0.56). While the precise means by which implementation of the AI-ECG alert led to decreased mortality are to be fully elucidated, these results indicate that such implementation assists in the detection of high-risk patients, prompting timely clinical care and reducing mortality.
(I haven't read this yet, so may well be in the article)
Sounds promising, but as always, there's the question of how many alerts - sensitivity/specificity etc. A system that raised alerts for most/all patients would (in the short term at least, until ignored) probably reduce mortality by getting them extra time reviewed by a clinician.
I look forward to your considered analysis. (It's paywalled for me.)
But it's the first such study which shows a mortality benefit, I think ?
I've only skimmed it now, but it looks impressive. Targeted to pick out no more than the 10% highest risk patients and areas under the ROC curve well above 0.8. Highlighting different patients (and those more at risk) than an early warning score (MEWS - not sure why they preferred that over NEWS, maybe the setting). All my normal concerns about this kind of thing - excessive triggering, using data right up to the point of cardiac arrest to 'predict' cardiac arrest etc - don't seem to apply here).
Overall, it looks very useful. More nuanced than something like NEWS (which was designed to be doable by hand on paper) and just as easy to roll out.
One bit that was interesting is that they also seem to have analysed the ECGs in the control group and just not triggered on those. Not sure that would get past a UK ethics committee, unless it was post-hoc (if the system was alerting in real time it would be unethical to not intervene on the control group just because they're in the control group). May be the control ECGs were just analysed later on for comparison (the comparison is part of showing that the randomisation worked and the control and intervention groups were not different).
The other thing is that it's described as a proprietary model, which is understandable but the black-boxiness of such things can be a concern - e.g. if it was trained on a set of data that makes it systematically ignore some things that should be triggers. I was involved in a machine-learning validation of NEWS and interestingly the model there refused to be bothered about some very deranged vital signs that would be seriously bad news because they were rare and didn't kill often enough within the 24 hour window used for training. With something simple like NEWS, the docs can say "hang on, but we also need to be called urgently for that" and you can adjust as needed.
I'm also astonished that this has not been made open access. All our research council funded studies have budget for open access, but maybe not the case with their funders.
BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
On BF, Dems are 1.99 and Reps 2.2 to win.
Yet Biden is 2.34 and Trump 2.12
This shows that punters think that Biden is more likely to keel over before the election than Trump is to not stand due to his legal issues.
Is this right?
Doesn't it (also?) mean that punters think Dems are more likely to win if Biden isn't the candidate, and/or Republicans less likely to win if Trump isn't the candidate? Or am I confusing myself?
There's so much nonsense that clouds any political issue that it can be hard to know what the truth of the issue is. For example, given the recent comments from Sunak about accepting returned asylum seekers from Ireland, the statement in the Dail today from the Taoiseach was surprising.
Simon Harris said there was a Common Travel Area between Ireland and Britain and there is an operational agreement in place around returning asylum seekers in both directions.
But of course there is already an agreement on returning asylum seekers. We know this. The reason we know this is that the proposed Irish legislation, so very similar to the recent ridiculous Bill passed by Parliament, is to override a court judgment that Britain was not a safe country to return asylum seekers to. Such a case was only brought because someone was trying to prevent their return to the UK.
So, once the local elections are done, and the Dail has passed it's absurd statement of fact, we can expect that asylum seekers will be returned from Ireland to Britain.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Interesting because the WM is probably slightly more working-class than the EM.
Huh?
Are you sure? Nonetheless we do seem to be far keener to categorise social class than we were 14 years ago. Is that the legacy of your Government?
I'd say WM is more WC than EM. But are you sure you know what geographies you're talking about? WM in this context is the boroughs of B'ham, Cov, Sandwell, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Walsall and Solihull; EM is the traditional counties of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.
Apologies if this has been posted already (clue: I don’t spend much time on here!) but today’s More in Common poll has their lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (24%) and it is the largest Labour lead at 19% published by the firm.*
More in Common have generally had the tories higher than most other firms, and the Labour lead lower.
This is hardly good news for the Conservatives coming into the locals.
* Well, they had one other 19% Labour lead in June 2023 off a smaller sample size
Comments
I'm struggling to see the legal use of such a knife. Is it a display thing?
The numbers were so bad that I was worried one of the smartarse pedants would find an obvious mistake.
I’m not alone in thinking Autumn likely brings a worse result, and a better one gained in spring or this side of summer recess - ConHome seems convinced of this too. But is Sunak’s election team really all about divining/shaping the moment for the best possible result for the Conservative Party this year?or merely about hanging on to the bucking bronco of power as long as possible? If we are seriously looking to find the date for best possible result, we can look like mugs if Sunak is merely about clinging on for no good reason.
I still believe he is/they are waiting for the best moment of the year.
I was wrong on May 2nd, but not the reasons for May 2nd. It was chosen on basis of, if Spring election is better than autumn, the bad local election night causes Tory civil war, VONCs etc making election impossible, makes it either May 2nd or Autumn, nothing in middle. That was the mistake, presuming rest of May/June would be Tory civil war. That civil war and strife obviously not going to happen now, neither the Mayor wipe out or the 500 seat losses, nor the big bout of infighting, and definitely not a VONC.
Add to 2nd May locals night now spun as okay result for Tories, 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good 2024 growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%! and Rwanda flights in the air - June and July dates are now an option if it is all about getting best possible result. To answer your question: yes. Tories are on for a far better result on July 4th - when the moment of optimism will be at its strongest based on this platform of news, than mixed picture on economic direction, boat crossings and Rwanda come November or December. Don’t you see it like this too?
So which day in June or July? 4th of July is decided by the fact Parliament will close on 23rd May anyway, so that suggests Monday 13th May as date calling it, with just over a week to tie Parliament session up, two weeks spring holiday/phoney campaign followed by normal campaign limit takes us to 4th July. Any later and voters will be going off on holiday, equally any earlier like a June date gets Whitsun holidays in the middle of the election campaign.
This is why I’m calling MoonRabbits 4th of July election, called on 13th May “Tits Out for Whitsun, Theory.”
Remember you heard it here first. 😌
Sadiq Khan 22 points ahead of Susan Hall, new @YouGov poll shows as race for City Hall enters its final days...
BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins
Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
(It's paywalled for me.)
But it's the first such study which shows a mortality benefit, I think ?
"Hugh Flemington is a very careful man. The former Post Office Head of Legal spent his morning in the Inquiry witness chair characterising his involvement in the Post Office scandal as accidental, at best.
The problem was, the documents do seem to suggest he was involved at some level, though he couldn’t recall how. He didn’t remember doing things and mostly he didn’t remember not doing things and if he didn’t do something it wasn’t a failing on his part at the time, it just hadn’t occurred to him at the time.
The tone was set quite early on when barrister for the Inquiry Sam Stevens asked if Mr Flemington knew that the standard of proof in a criminal trial was that a jury had to be sure of guilt. Mr Flemington wasn’t sure, telling Stevens he was reliant on comedy exploding clown car Jarnail Singh for his education in criminal law. Stevens was a little taken aback, as well he might be. If Flemington, a senior lawyer, was going to tell the Inquiry he was not able to confirm he knew what the criminal standard of proof was, it was going to be a long morning."
https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/what-hugh-didnt-do/
Energy and water saving always come down to KISS.
In water it's keep your water in your site and use it for the garden or pond or watering plants; it's generally too much overhead to install an entire second system to harvest rainwater and recycle greywater for indoor use, especially in retrofit.
Most of the industry (apart from the genuinely credulous gimmick sellers and David Cameron) picked that up from the Grande Complication of the upper levels of Gordon Brown's Code for Sustainable Homes.
When I was a child I clearly remember terror attack in Spain two days from an election that wiped out a 20 point lead and handed opposition shock victory.
https://twitter.com/greg_herriett/status/1679834228182089728
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
All the confidence, swagger and boldness that you would expect from an OE.
Utter waffle sandwich today from Starmer. Just tells Susanna Reid what a great bloke he is rather than answer her perfectly reasonable questions. This will grind the gears of a lot of voters.
https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1785251637738504295?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
On your last point, tut, you'll upset the PBScotch Experts who are convinced that the Scottish Parliament never produces good legislation. On which: freeholds/feu duties, anyone?
As for election dates - unless a miracle occurs we aren’t going to see an election before October, to call one in late September means having everything wrapped up before the summer recess and no one wants an 8 week+ campaign
It would be so out of character for Gorgeous to stir the s***.
That would not have afaik a lawful use, as swords with curved blades >50cm are outright banned, with the exception of antiques and some iirc traditionally made. Reenacters use blunted swords aiui.
A sharpened sword would have no lawful use to be possessed in a normal public place, afaics - without something like "taking it to a pre-arranged appointment at a museum for an opinion".
Machete? Maybe chopping down vegetation on your farm.
I don't think people want a campaign running across the summer! (It might be popular on here but not generally)
https://x.com/jamin2g/status/1442049708323602434?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Male politicians who chose to pander to activists issuing violent threats against their own female MPs enabled and emboldened the toxic culture @Keir_Starmer now claims to deplore. When you're part of the cause, you've got some brass neck putting yourself forward as a cure.
https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1785281074584498515?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Yet Biden is 2.34 and Trump 2.12
This shows that punters think that Biden is more likely to keel over before the election than Trump is to not stand due to his legal issues.
Is this right?
Are we talking the leasehold issue, here?
I think the boil can be lanced, but I don't think simply making them all go for commonhold will necessarily be more efficient. I think we have discussed that previously.
A place to start would be by outlawing leasehold in the case of single occupancy newbuild properties, and take it back to say such built since 2000 or 1990.
There's also an issue about ensuring high quality maintenance. Think for example areas of London that owe their character to standards set for leaseholders by historic estates.
If not June 27th or July 4th, it’s going to be November or into December.
But we have both been saying spring or early summer gets better result than Autumn, and at no point were we wrong. 👍🏻
In NY I make that that he is formally now on notice that further violations of Court Orders could lead to the small room with the bucket.
I think he has further violations drawn to the attention of the Court by the prosecutors which have not been considered at a hearing yet.
According to the WAPO there is a second contempt hearing due on Thursday.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/28/trump-trials-tracker-latest-news/
This, of course, depends on there being debates. With Starmer twenty points up, why would he risk them?
Caught the train from Flatland Central, arrived KX about midday, walked through the main entrance waving my prebooked ticket (free) and was in. A bit busy in Egypt but I'm not that keen on mummies anyway. Expected a bit of a scrum but no, had the Chessmen and Sutton Hoo to myself. Bit disappointed the neolithic stuff was closed, but hey, there's too much to see anyway.
It may be full of loot, but what loot! See it before it goes.
I learnt things on Manhunt on Apple that was new to me. Did you know Lincoln was assassinated a week after he won the war? And it wasn’t opportunist, as they tried to assassinate Secretary of State and Vice President at the same time.
BOE will be aware of this so won't be rushing to cut the rate.
But yes CPI will hit the 2% target for April. And will be there...for the time being.
"I hope today that in some small way my witness appearance will help the inquiry establish lessons learned.”
There’s Hall’s last-minute social media campaign video ready to go, clippings of all the headlines of knife crime in London, set to the there music of “The Wire”. That’s Sadiq Khan’s Lawless London.
Starmer is wooden, he can't think on his feet, but in four years as LOTO he's managed to avoid a Peppa Pig grade event.
A shifty smile is less off-putting than an exasperated Sunak losing his s*** when some scumbag state school peasant interviewer hits him with a curved ball question.
Irish justice minister says she will push ahead despite Rishi Sunak insisting Britain will not take back asylum seekers" (£)
https://www.ft.com/content/75488506-4757-4ee8-8e11-74d266113883
There was a YouTube video, a year or 2 back with a bunch of police officers trying to deal with one such. Pepper spray wasn't doing anything, and one police officer was using a dustbin lid he'd grabbed as a shield.
Forcefully.
Just saying.
Just had an email telling me that the interest on my Halifax credit cards is going up - now I don’t pay any interest but it shows the current direction, borrowing money is getting more expensive
A ringing endorsement.
Keir claims he did not say Israel had the right to cut off power & water to Gaza, & says he clarified what he meant pretty quickly.
If he misspoke why did shadow ministers go on TV after the LBC interview & defend what he said, & why did he take 9 days to 'clarify' his comments
https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1785208688921190603?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/16/bmjebm-2023-112583
...In this study, we comprehensively investigated the associations between genetic risk and lifestyle risk factors regressed against lifespan in 353 742 participants of the UK Biobank cohort. Our results indicated that a high genetic risk was associated with a 21% increased risk of death compared with a low genetic risk, independent of lifestyle factors. In contrast, an unfavourable lifestyle was associated with an approximately 78% increased risk of death compared with a favourable lifestyle within and across genetic risk categories. Furthermore, the genetic risk of a shorter lifespan or premature death might be offset by a favourable lifestyle by approximately 62%. Participants with a genetic predisposition to a short lifespan and an unfavourable lifestyle had a 2.04 times higher death risk compared with those with a genetic predisposition to a long lifespan and a favourable lifestyle. Our study also indicated that adherence to healthy lifestyles could substantially attenuate the loss of lifespan for individuals with genetic susceptibility to a shorter lifespan. In addition, we constituted the optimal lifestyle combination containing four lifestyle factors, including no current smoking, regular physical activity, adequate sleep duration, and a healthy diet, to bring better benefits for prolonging human lifespan.
To our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the joint association of genetic risk and lifestyle factors with human lifespan...
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography.
2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
It being in alphabetical order, the layout of the polling card definitely helps “Binface, Count” who is right near the top of the paper. As it does - not that this matters much - “Blackie, Rob” for the Lib Dems. Hall and Khan are near the middle with little positional advantage or disadvantage vis a vis each other.
All those centrist commentators who spoke loftily about how Donald Trump and Boris Johnson shamelessly lied about things they said and did, and how damaging that was to democracy.
Listen to how silent they are now!
https://x.com/owenjones84/status/1785231149326872732?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2024/apr/29/ncuti-gatwa-national-theatre-importance-of-being-earnest-doctor-who-algernon-moncrieff
Are you sure? Nonetheless we do seem to be far keener to categorise social class than we were 14 years ago. Is that the legacy of your Government?
Simon Harris said there was a Common Travel Area between Ireland and Britain and there is an operational agreement in place around returning asylum seekers in both directions.
But of course there is already an agreement on returning asylum seekers. We know this. The reason we know this is that the proposed Irish legislation, so very similar to the recent ridiculous Bill passed by Parliament, is to override a court judgment that Britain was not a safe country to return asylum seekers to. Such a case was only brought because someone was trying to prevent their return to the UK.
So, once the local elections are done, and the Dail has passed it's absurd statement of fact, we can expect that asylum seekers will be returned from Ireland to Britain.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0430/1446580-dail-migration/
But Sunak managed to fool a whole bunch of right-wingers that they'd got one over the libtards, so I guess he doesn't give a damn.
Pause
But it is really fatty muscle 😀
And quite encouraging in how much you can improve your likely outcomes.
Overall, it looks very useful. More nuanced than something like NEWS (which was designed to be doable by hand on paper) and just as easy to roll out.
One bit that was interesting is that they also seem to have analysed the ECGs in the control group and just not triggered on those. Not sure that would get past a UK ethics committee, unless it was post-hoc (if the system was alerting in real time it would be unethical to not intervene on the control group just because they're in the control group). May be the control ECGs were just analysed later on for comparison (the comparison is part of showing that the randomisation worked and the control and intervention groups were not different).
The other thing is that it's described as a proprietary model, which is understandable but the black-boxiness of such things can be a concern - e.g. if it was trained on a set of data that makes it systematically ignore some things that should be triggers. I was involved in a machine-learning validation of NEWS and interestingly the model there refused to be bothered about some very deranged vital signs that would be seriously bad news because they were rare and didn't kill often enough within the 24 hour window used for training. With something simple like NEWS, the docs can say "hang on, but we also need to be called urgently for that" and you can adjust as needed.
I'm also astonished that this has not been made open access. All our research council funded studies have budget for open access, but maybe not the case with their funders.
But are you sure you know what geographies you're talking about? WM in this context is the boroughs of B'ham, Cov, Sandwell, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Walsall and Solihull; EM is the traditional counties of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.
More in Common have generally had the tories higher than most other firms, and the Labour lead lower.
This is hardly good news for the Conservatives coming into the locals.
* Well, they had one other 19% Labour lead in June 2023 off a smaller sample size