BREAKING: Donald Trump is in criminal contempt for nine violations of a gag order and has been fined $9,000, one for each, judge Juan Merchan has ruled.
@kaitlancollins Whoa. In his gag order ruling, Judge Merchan laments that Trump can’t be fined more than $1,000 for his violations. “While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system…it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.” Because he can’t impose a fine of $2,500 or $150,000, “jail may be a necessary punishment.”
On BF, Dems are 1.99 and Reps 2.2 to win.
Yet Biden is 2.34 and Trump 2.12
This shows that punters think that Biden is more likely to keel over before the election than Trump is to not stand due to his legal issues.
Is this right?
Doesn't it (also?) mean that punters think Dems are more likely to win if Biden isn't the candidate, and/or Republicans less likely to win if Trump isn't the candidate? Or am I confusing myself?
It depends, because you don't know what probability punters are assigning to Trump or Biden not being candidates.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Low inflation might be a symptom of weak demand combined with rising unemployment.Inflation has already fallen from 11% to just over 3% but has had little obvious effect on the polls. Why should any further decline to 2% make much difference?
It’s a huge symbolic moment in a febrile political atmosphere, meaning lots of voters will notice it and think the government have done a good job to stand cost of living crisis on its head so quickly.
Just to correct you, it’s energy behind the big drop. And the sequence of announcements is: 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%!
To exploit this, Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May, for 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
The final vote shares will be CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
I seem to remember a previous prediction of the election date voiced with great confidence, yet proving to be mistaken. Do you have no self doubt around this new prediction?
Some Labour people pushed May 2nd simply to call Sunak frit - that wasn’t me, and Rishi didn’t shut this down, keeping 2nd May option open a very long time, like he was considering it.
I’m not alone in thinking Autumn likely brings a worse result, and a better one gained in spring or this side of summer recess - ConHome seems convinced of this too. But is Sunak’s election team really all about divining/shaping the moment for the best possible result for the Conservative Party this year?or merely about hanging on to the bucking bronco of power as long as possible? If we are seriously looking to find the date for best possible result, we can look like mugs if Sunak is merely about clinging on for no good reason. I still believe he is/they are waiting for the best moment of the year.
I was wrong on May 2nd, but not the reasons for May 2nd. It was chosen on basis of, if Spring election is better than autumn, the bad local election night causes Tory civil war, VONCs etc making election impossible, makes it either May 2nd or Autumn, nothing in middle. That was the mistake, presuming rest of May/June would be Tory civil war. That civil war and strife obviously not going to happen now, neither the Mayor wipe out or the 500 seat losses, nor the big bout of infighting, and definitely not a VONC.
Add to 2nd May locals night now spun as okay result for Tories, 9th May interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with very good 2024 growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%! and Rwanda flights in the air - June and July dates are now an option if it is all about getting best possible result. To answer your question: yes. Tories are on for a far better result on July 4th - when the moment of optimism will be at its strongest based on this platform of news, than mixed picture on economic direction, boat crossings and Rwanda come November or December. Don’t you see it like this too?
So which day in June or July? 4th of July is decided by the fact Parliament will close on 23rd May anyway, so that suggests Monday 13th May as date calling it, with just over a week to tie Parliament session up, two weeks spring holiday/phoney campaign followed by normal campaign limit takes us to 4th July. Any later and voters will be going off on holiday, equally any earlier like a June date gets Whitsun holidays in the middle of the election campaign.
This is why I’m calling MoonRabbits 4th of July election, called on 13th May “Tits Out for Whitsun, Theory.”
Remember you heard it here first. 😌
I don't think there will be an interest rate cut on 9 May. However this is quite peripheral to your overall analysis! 4 July or 27 June remain a possibility. After that then not til late September (possibly)!
If BoE don’t cut interest rates a mere 0.25% and one week later inflation falls below 2%, then… well… BoE will be in for some serious stick, won’t they? I don’t want to come over all Paul Merson, but like I mean, some SERIOUS stick. Proper stick like, you know?
If not June 27th or July 4th, it’s going to be November or into December.
But we have both been saying spring or early summer gets better result than Autumn, and at no point were we wrong. 👍🏻
Markets are pricing a practically zero chance of a rate cut in May, and less than 50% chance for 20 June. There is no July meeting so the next chance will be 1st August which is currently seen by markets as the most likely timing for the first cut.
Markets might be wrong, but it's not the high certainty event (rate cut before July election) fhY you suggest.
Starting Topics: 1. Judge Merchan has found Trump in contempt for 9 violations of the gag order in his election interference trial, fining him $1,000 each. He's also been threatened with jail time if he violates the order again. Trump has now violated his pretrial release conditions in all 4 of his criminal cases. He's testing the limits of the court and judicial system because he has no respect for the rule of law. None of this will matter to his supporters in the Republican Party who now view the rule of law as nothing but a speed bump in their path to absolute power.
2. In a new @Time interview, Trump lays out the most brazen, disturbing picture of what a second Trump term would look like yet. He tells Time he would “let red states monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans." When asked if he will pardon every one of the J6 insurrectionists, "absolutely yes." Nothing about Trump is normal and no one should think that he and President Biden are similar candidates. Biden respects the rule of law, individual rights, and democracy. Trump wants to make himself a dictator and destroy America by turning it into a fascist nation.
3. Trump's ongoing criminal trial continues to highlight his weaknesses on a national stage, and he can't slow it any longer. He tried to delay it but now everyone knows about his indiscretions, and his wife hates him. He's humiliated his family, and is sitting in cold courtrooms alone. His dementia is on full display, as he can barely stay awake in the middle of his own trial proceedings. Trump falls asleep in the courtroom because he stays up all night dejected, afraid and all alone. Try as he might, the only person to blame is Donald Trump.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
Sir Keir will fall apart under scrutiny in the campaign debates.
I think Madeley is quite a good interviewer, plenty don’t, but could the Labour leader look any more shifty and evasive here? The blinking, the Partridge smirk, the repetition. So evasive
But he's up against Sunak. And Davey. And TBC from the SNP.
So he'll look like a titan.
Personally I don’t think he will out perform Sunak in the debates.
I think Sunak would do quite well in the debates: while he's been a poor leader, he's no idiot, and is used to thinking on his feet. He'll also do better in an environment where he just needs to calmly keep repeating a few talking points. And, of course, his dullness will work to his advantage: what great personal failing can be laid at Sunak's feet.
This, of course, depends on there being debates. With Starmer twenty points up, why would he risk them?
May tried that and it didn’t end well . He has to do the debates and personally I think he’ll wipe the floor with Sunak .
Yes, I think so. They'll have a Man against Boy feel about them.
You don't think it would be unseemly for Rishi Sunak to pull rank like that? He needs to treat Starmer as a candidate with equal standing.
Rishi's the boy (obvs) - perhaps he can make that an asset but I doubt it.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Interesting because the WM is probably slightly more working-class than the EM.
Huh?
Are you sure? Nonetheless we do seem to be far keener to categorise social class than we were 14 years ago. Is that the legacy of your Government?
I'd say WM is more WC than EM. But are you sure you know what geographies you're talking about? WM in this context is the boroughs of B'ham, Cov, Sandwell, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Walsall and Solihull; EM is the traditional counties of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.
I realise compared to the PB Brains Trust I am but a thick Brummie peasant, but being Solihull born and South Birmingham bred I do have some idea of the social make up of the West Midlands County. I am also well versed in Dudley, Sandwell and Coventry (not so much Walsall and Wolverhampton).
Because we speak in Brummie or Black Country brogues does that mean we are a bit Benny from Crossroads?
Nick Wallis report on this morning's PO proceedings.
"Hugh Flemington is a very careful man. The former Post Office Head of Legal spent his morning in the Inquiry witness chair characterising his involvement in the Post Office scandal as accidental, at best.
The problem was, the documents do seem to suggest he was involved at some level, though he couldn’t recall how. He didn’t remember doing things and mostly he didn’t remember not doing things and if he didn’t do something it wasn’t a failing on his part at the time, it just hadn’t occurred to him at the time.
The tone was set quite early on when barrister for the Inquiry Sam Stevens asked if Mr Flemington knew that the standard of proof in a criminal trial was that a jury had to be sure of guilt. Mr Flemington wasn’t sure, telling Stevens he was reliant on comedy exploding clown car Jarnail Singh for his education in criminal law. Stevens was a little taken aback, as well he might be. If Flemington, a senior lawyer, was going to tell the Inquiry he was not able to confirm he knew what the criminal standard of proof was, it was going to be a long morning."
In the USA, we (used to) call that the "Sergeant Schultz defense" after the bumbling German guard from the old "Hogan's Heroes" TV sit-com, whose stock line when questioned was "I know nothing!"
Perhaps questioners at the Inquiry should ask the crack (in one sense) PO legal eagles, "Did you wipe your fat ass this morning?" and see IF they have any recollection of THAT?
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
It's flat out illegal, and trivially easy to work out that it is though. So the council is paying once for the barriers, twice for the removal and maybe thrice for potential compensation, not to forget four times for a brief/silk or w/e.
Is it the council or the Woodland Trust which is responsible, please?
The Council in this case most likely. Normally it would be the Local Highways Authority (LHA) in England and Wales, which is the London Borough, or the County or Unitary City Council.
One strange thing is that the best recent infrastructure eg along former railway lines, or as part of developments, never seems to get designated as Public Rights of Way (ie footpaths, bridleways etc), which makes it difficult to hold the LHA to account under PROW (Highways Act 1980) law. And action under the Equality Act can only be taken by the individual discriminated against, which often lands it on poorer people with lower psychological resilience who will struggle to stump up a £400 Court Fee.
It's strange - near me I have a full set of pedestrian walkways with underpasses built around a motorway junction in 1967-8 which are not dedicated as PROWs. Which the local conservative MP wanting a bigger roundabout described in Parliament as essentially a complication that is in his way.
On this one I am jealous of the legal situation in Scotland.
Thanks for that. Most interesting.
On your last point, tut, you'll upset the PBScotch Experts who are convinced that the Scottish Parliament never produces good legislation. On which: freeholds/feu duties, anyone?
What about freeholds?
Are we talking the leasehold issue, here?
I think the boil can be lanced, but I don't think simply making them all go for commonhold will necessarily be more efficient. I think we have discussed that previously.
A place to start would be by outlawing leasehold in the case of single occupancy newbuild properties, and take it back to say such built since 2000 or 1990.
There's also an issue about ensuring high quality maintenance. Think for example areas of London that owe their character to standards set for leaseholders by historic estates.
Sorry, yes, leaseholds.
But things such as right of way and feu duties were very long-standing problems. Indeed, the lack of a right of way system was argued by landowners to "prove" that there was zero access of any kind. Very fortunately that was ignored.
Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie has told @SkyNews his party will not be backing a motion of no-confidence in the Scottish government which is due to be voted on tomorrow
Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie has told @SkyNews his party will not be backing a motion of no-confidence in the Scottish government which is due to be voted on tomorrow
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Interesting because the WM is probably slightly more working-class than the EM.
Huh?
Are you sure? Nonetheless we do seem to be far keener to categorise social class than we were 14 years ago. Is that the legacy of your Government?
I'd say WM is more WC than EM. But are you sure you know what geographies you're talking about? WM in this context is the boroughs of B'ham, Cov, Sandwell, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Walsall and Solihull; EM is the traditional counties of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.
I realise compared to the PB Brains Trust I am but a thick Brummie peasant, but being Solihull born and South Birmingham bred I do have some idea of the social make up of the West Midlands County. I am also well versed in Dudley, Sandwell and Coventry (not so much Wolverhampton).
Because we speak in Brummie or Black Country brogues does that mean we are a bit Benny from Crossroads?
No, of course not. It just instinctively feels to me that there are proportionately more middle class voters in Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire than in the urban west Midlands. I may be misleading myself by the existence of large, prosperous, but not terribly well populated areas of the East Mids.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
It's not East Midlands; it's Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.
East Midlands is also Leicestershire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland.
Is some "£$%^&* actually calling it "East Midlands"?
It has been said that one contributory factor to May's disastrous 2017GE campaign was the terrorist attacks that occurred. There's an obvious parallel with today's horrific knife attack in North London for Thursday's Mayoral election.
Might Khan lose?
When 2017 is told, it’s always only May’s social care funding that gets the blame (still the only plan anyones ever put on table for problem still going on) not the impact of terrorist attacks that don’t even get mentioned as swinging votes from what were solid in local elections to switched to useless opposition one month later for no obvious reason.
When I was a child I clearly remember terror attack in Spain two days from an election that wiped out a 20 point lead and handed opposition shock victory.
As I recall the dementia tax had just been announced and was receiving some a very poor reception. Everyone expected a reverse ferret imminently, but the attack happened and politics was frozen for a week - the policy stayed there stinking out the room and destroying May's hopes .
There's so much nonsense that clouds any political issue that it can be hard to know what the truth of the issue is. For example, given the recent comments from Sunak about accepting returned asylum seekers from Ireland, the statement in the Dail today from the Taoiseach was surprising.
Simon Harris said there was a Common Travel Area between Ireland and Britain and there is an operational agreement in place around returning asylum seekers in both directions.
But of course there is already an agreement on returning asylum seekers. We know this. The reason we know this is that the proposed Irish legislation, so very similar to the recent ridiculous Bill passed by Parliament, is to override a court judgment that Britain was not a safe country to return asylum seekers to. Such a case was only brought because someone was trying to prevent their return to the UK.
So, once the local elections are done, and the Dail has passed it's absurd statement of fact, we can expect that asylum seekers will be returned from Ireland to Britain.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Interesting because the WM is probably slightly more working-class than the EM.
Huh?
Are you sure? Nonetheless we do seem to be far keener to categorise social class than we were 14 years ago. Is that the legacy of your Government?
I'd say WM is more WC than EM. But are you sure you know what geographies you're talking about? WM in this context is the boroughs of B'ham, Cov, Sandwell, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Walsall and Solihull; EM is the traditional counties of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.
Class is barely relevant for voting intention these days. VI is mostly correlated with age and education, though obviously candidate quality affects decisions too across all classes.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
It's not East Midlands; it's Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.
East Midlands is also Leicestershire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland.
That's my point.
East Midlands Combined Authority = Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire East Midland Region = the above plus Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Rutland
Similarly, West Midlands Combined Authority = Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Walsall and Solihull West Midlands Region = the above plus Staffordshire, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire and Warwickshire.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
It's not East Midlands; it's Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.
East Midlands is also Leicestershire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland.
Is some "£$%^&* actually calling it "East Midlands"?
Staffordshire is West Midlands. Includes areas to the west of Birmingham like Kinver and Wombourne.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Interesting because the WM is probably slightly more working-class than the EM.
Huh?
Are you sure? Nonetheless we do seem to be far keener to categorise social class than we were 14 years ago. Is that the legacy of your Government?
I'd say WM is more WC than EM. But are you sure you know what geographies you're talking about? WM in this context is the boroughs of B'ham, Cov, Sandwell, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Walsall and Solihull; EM is the traditional counties of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.
Class is barely relevant for voting intention these days. VI is mostly correlated with age and education, though obviously candidate quality affects decisions too across all classes.
Well yes. But that in itself is interesting, and goes back to your original point. For those of us of a certain vintage, it is fascinating that any middle class place will be a safer Labour bet than its more working class equivalent (notwithstanding MexicanPete's reasonable questions over whether in this case this is in fact the case).
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
It's not East Midlands; it's Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.
East Midlands is also Leicestershire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland.
Is some "£$%^&* actually calling it "East Midlands"?
Staffordshire is West Midlands. Includes areas to the west of Birmingham like Kinver and Wombourne.
Starting Topics: 1. Judge Merchan has found Trump in contempt for 9 violations of the gag order in his election interference trial, fining him $1,000 each. He's also been threatened with jail time if he violates the order again. Trump has now violated his pretrial release conditions in all 4 of his criminal cases. He's testing the limits of the court and judicial system because he has no respect for the rule of law. None of this will matter to his supporters in the Republican Party who now view the rule of law as nothing but a speed bump in their path to absolute power.
2. In a new @Time interview, Trump lays out the most brazen, disturbing picture of what a second Trump term would look like yet. He tells Time he would “let red states monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans." When asked if he will pardon every one of the J6 insurrectionists, "absolutely yes." Nothing about Trump is normal and no one should think that he and President Biden are similar candidates. Biden respects the rule of law, individual rights, and democracy. Trump wants to make himself a dictator and destroy America by turning it into a fascist nation.
3. Trump's ongoing criminal trial continues to highlight his weaknesses on a national stage, and he can't slow it any longer. He tried to delay it but now everyone knows about his indiscretions, and his wife hates him. He's humiliated his family, and is sitting in cold courtrooms alone. His dementia is on full display, as he can barely stay awake in the middle of his own trial proceedings. Trump falls asleep in the courtroom because he stays up all night dejected, afraid and all alone. Try as he might, the only person to blame is Donald Trump.
Just need to see those polls move. I'm sure they will - but if he's still looking level or ahead by August I'll start to get a bit worried.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
It's not East Midlands; it's Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.
East Midlands is also Leicestershire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland.
Is some "£$%^&* actually calling it "East Midlands"?
Surely Staffordshire is Greater West Midlands? It is as far as I am concerned.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
It’s fucking hideous. They should UNESCO list the tourist crowds. This is the queue just to get in the abbey
Outrageous! Don't you have a Press Pass?
I do have a press card but I can’t be arsed with the faff. From what I’ve read the abbey interior is not that special anyway - it’s all about the location
And now I’ve seen the location and the moment you finally approach the Mont is indeed very special and quite sublime. This majestic ensemble in grey gold stone, rising from the Normandy waters
After that it’s just massive crowds outside mediocre creperies. Mont St Michel can go fuck itself until they keep out the proles by charging €300 a day to people like me and only me
Tchoh!
I did warn you a week or so ago when you said you were going. It is very commercialised. We basically cycled up to it. Admired it from our bikes and then went for a beer in one of the modern bars/restaurants on the path leading up to it.
As you say it is impressive to look at, but I couldn't be bothered to go in.
At the other end of the scale we have recently seen the Ruthwell Cross (first visit since about 1977) and appeared to have been the only humans within about 5 miles. Noom factor lessened by the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk but still a miraculous survival from when Northumbria was at the apex of European civilization. And equally miraculously unlocked (though apparently usually locked, like Scottish churches are, key to be had from someone somewhere).
Pretty sure your pin up would enjoy the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk. Or at least take a flinty satisfaction from them which passes for Noom in Weefreeworld.
By Wee Free standards it was full of wicked idols; abominations like bible stories and holy people doing holy things.
Apologies if this has been posted already (clue: I don’t spend much time on here!) but today’s More in Common poll has their lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (24%) and it is the largest Labour lead at 19% published by the firm.*
More in Common have generally had the tories higher than most other firms, and the Labour lead lower.
This is hardly good news for the Conservatives coming into the locals.
* Well, they had one other 19% Labour lead in June 2023 off a smaller sample size
Equally I'm only able to jump in/out PB and add comment from time to time, although I check in a couple of times daily.
Indeed, this is a bad poll for the Tories from MiC. Results of course will be leavened as not all councils are on full election, but it really isn't looking good.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
It's not East Midlands; it's Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.
East Midlands is also Leicestershire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland.
That's my point.
East Midlands Combined Authority = Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire East Midland Region = the above plus Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Rutland
Similarly, West Midlands Combined Authority = Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Walsall and Solihull West Midlands Region = the above plus Staffordshire, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire and Warwickshire.
It's as if we're setting out to confuse people.
WMCA covers the old West Midlands County area. Where "Wumpty" (WMPTE) buses operate. Seems fair enough.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
It’s fucking hideous. They should UNESCO list the tourist crowds. This is the queue just to get in the abbey
Outrageous! Don't you have a Press Pass?
I do have a press card but I can’t be arsed with the faff. From what I’ve read the abbey interior is not that special anyway - it’s all about the location
And now I’ve seen the location and the moment you finally approach the Mont is indeed very special and quite sublime. This majestic ensemble in grey gold stone, rising from the Normandy waters
After that it’s just massive crowds outside mediocre creperies. Mont St Michel can go fuck itself until they keep out the proles by charging €300 a day to people like me and only me
Tchoh!
I did warn you a week or so ago when you said you were going. It is very commercialised. We basically cycled up to it. Admired it from our bikes and then went for a beer in one of the modern bars/restaurants on the path leading up to it.
As you say it is impressive to look at, but I couldn't be bothered to go in.
At the other end of the scale we have recently seen the Ruthwell Cross (first visit since about 1977) and appeared to have been the only humans within about 5 miles. Noom factor lessened by the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk but still a miraculous survival from when Northumbria was at the apex of European civilization. And equally miraculously unlocked (though apparently usually locked, like Scottish churches are, key to be had from someone somewhere).
Pretty sure your pin up would enjoy the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk. Or at least take a flinty satisfaction from them which passes for Noom in Weefreeworld.
By Wee Free standards it was full of wicked idols; abominations like bible stories and holy people doing holy things.
By *Presbyterian* standards,er, you mean. The Secession and Free Kirks differed doctrinally from the Established Kirk almost entirely on issues of church government and the role of the state and landowner. They did tend to be somewhat more Evangelical by their nature, but believe me, if you wanted instrumental music c. 1840 you went and joined the Independents [Congregationalists] and Episcopalians and even then it was pot luck.
Edit: and the cross has been in the Kirkyard for centuries. Ditto, for instance, Nigg (Ross and Cromarty).
Apologies if this has been posted already (clue: I don’t spend much time on here!) but today’s More in Common poll has their lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (24%) and it is the largest Labour lead at 19% published by the firm.*
More in Common have generally had the tories higher than most other firms, and the Labour lead lower.
This is hardly good news for the Conservatives coming into the locals.
* Well, they had one other 19% Labour lead in June 2023 off a smaller sample size
Equally I'm only able to jump in/out PB and add comment from time to time, although I check in a couple of times daily.
Indeed, this is a bad poll for the Tories from MiC. Results of course will be leavened as not all councils are on full election, but it really isn't looking good.
Can I just say (sorry I am not able to spend much time on PB because I have a fabulously interesting and varied life and you would be so envious of me if only you knew how fabulous and interesting it actually was and can you believe that people actually spend huge amounts of time, even when they are so called "travelling" on PB posting pictures of beer and temples and dogs and so forth whereas my time is infinitely more worthily spent and if you could only imagine how busy and fabulous and interesting I am you would weep.) I see the Cons are down in the polls.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
AI-enabled electrocardiography alert intervention and all-cause mortality: a pragmatic randomized clinical trial
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02961-4 The early identification of vulnerable patients has the potential to improve outcomes but poses a substantial challenge in clinical practice. This study evaluated the ability of an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) to identify hospitalized patients with a high risk of mortality in a multisite randomized controlled trial involving 39 physicians and 15,965 patients. The AI-ECG alert intervention included an AI report and warning messages delivered to the physicians, flagging patients predicted to be at high risk of mortality. The trial met its primary outcome, finding that implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality within 90 days: 3.6% patients in the intervention group died within 90 days, compared to 4.3% in the control group (4.3%) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70–0.99). A prespecified analysis showed that reduction in all-cause mortality associated with the AI-ECG alert was observed primarily in patients with high-risk ECGs (HR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.53–0.90). In analyses of secondary outcomes, patients in the intervention group with high-risk ECGs received increased levels of intensive care compared to the control group; for the high-risk ECG group of patients, implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cardiac death (0.2% in the intervention arm versus 2.4% in the control arm, HR = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.01–0.56). While the precise means by which implementation of the AI-ECG alert led to decreased mortality are to be fully elucidated, these results indicate that such implementation assists in the detection of high-risk patients, prompting timely clinical care and reducing mortality.
(I haven't read this yet, so may well be in the article)
Sounds promising, but as always, there's the question of how many alerts - sensitivity/specificity etc. A system that raised alerts for most/all patients would (in the short term at least, until ignored) probably reduce mortality by getting them extra time reviewed by a clinician.
I look forward to your considered analysis. (It's paywalled for me.)
But it's the first such study which shows a mortality benefit, I think ?
I've only skimmed it now, but it looks impressive. Targeted to pick out no more than the 10% highest risk patients and areas under the ROC curve well above 0.8. Highlighting different patients (and those more at risk) than an early warning score (MEWS - not sure why they preferred that over NEWS, maybe the setting). All my normal concerns about this kind of thing - excessive triggering, using data right up to the point of cardiac arrest to 'predict' cardiac arrest etc - don't seem to apply here).
Overall, it looks very useful. More nuanced than something like NEWS (which was designed to be doable by hand on paper) and just as easy to roll out.
One bit that was interesting is that they also seem to have analysed the ECGs in the control group and just not triggered on those. Not sure that would get past a UK ethics committee, unless it was post-hoc (if the system was alerting in real time it would be unethical to not intervene on the control group just because they're in the control group). May be the control ECGs were just analysed later on for comparison (the comparison is part of showing that the randomisation worked and the control and intervention groups were not different).
The other thing is that it's described as a proprietary model, which is understandable but the black-boxiness of such things can be a concern - e.g. if it was trained on a set of data that makes it systematically ignore some things that should be triggers. I was involved in a machine-learning validation of NEWS and interestingly the model there refused to be bothered about some very deranged vital signs that would be seriously bad news because they were rare and didn't kill often enough within the 24 hour window used for training. With something simple like NEWS, the docs can say "hang on, but we also need to be called urgently for that" and you can adjust as needed.
I'm also astonished that this has not been made open access. All our research council funded studies have budget for open access, but maybe not the case with their funders.
The good news is that the competition in this area is likely to be quite intense, so there's be many more such efforts, now such a large clinical benefit has been fairly convincingly demonstrated.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
No probs accepting that. But by the same token much of the support for a less burdensome transition process and for inclusion not exclusion as the default comes from people not signed up to extreme gender ideology or to "no debate" or (on the medical side) to drugs and surgery on demand, any age, no questions asked etc - ie people not fitting *that* caricature.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I was speaking to a friend who works in this area (child mental health, not directly with trans patients) who said the Cass report was full of really sensible stuff but had inevitably been distorted by people with axes to grind in the media. The main concern of those working with young people affected by this issue seems to be around suicide risk. It's clearly a very tricky area, and now it as seen as too risky to get involved in, so it's hard to find qualified staff while demand remains very high.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
I do not think that accurately reflects the views even of the limited range on pb.com.
Point being that kina only couldn't see Cass as a win for TERFs because he had a caricature in his head of what they were and thought. Not sure that adding another inexact definition helps all too much. Not much room in your definition for empathy and compassion.
I'm not sure what's more annoying.. MoonRabbits hopeless election predictions..or Leon's desire for travel restrictions for the poor..🤨
Election Predictions yet to be proved hopeless.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
If you really think the LibDems will get 16% and 48 seats, then I have a bridge to sell you.
Don’t knock the forecast; cheering me up a great deal!
Oh, I think the LibDems will have a pretty good night. I think they'll marginally increase their vote share, and double (or even slightly more) their seat count.
It will be their best performance since 2010, and will return them to a seat level well in advance of where they were as the Alliance.
But I suspect they won't be approaching 50 seats, nor matching their 1997 vote share.
I'm not sure what's more annoying.. MoonRabbits hopeless election predictions..or Leon's desire for travel restrictions for the poor..🤨
Election Predictions yet to be proved hopeless.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
If you really think the LibDems will get 16% and 48 seats, then I have a bridge to sell you.
Don’t knock the forecast; cheering me up a great deal!
Oh, I think the LibDems will have a pretty good night. I think they'll marginally increase their vote share, and double (or even slightly more) their seat count.
It will be their best performance since 2010, and will return them to a seat level well in advance of where they were as the Alliance.
But I suspect they won't be approaching 50 seats, nor matching their 1997 vote share.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
On Susan Hall, I'm not convinced that her portrayal of London as a crime-ridden hellhole, covered excessively in the supportive Daily Mail, is of much appeal to actual Londoners, who generally rather enjoy living there. I suspect it will find more favour with those who live far from London, who can't actually vote for the London Mayor.
As it happens, I spent yesterday wandering around my old stamping grounds in London, and am disappointed to report that not only did I not see a single machete or killer knife, I also couldn't find any obvious lawlessness.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
I do not think that accurately reflects the views even of the limited range on pb.com.
Point being that kina only couldn't see Cass as a win for TERFs because he had a caricature in his head of what they were and thought. Not sure that adding another inexact definition helps all too much. Not much room in your definition for empathy and compassion.
Analysing emergent political groups is difficult, and insofar as it consists of a coherent group (instead of multiple people with different agendas) it will have differing goals. But if I was asked to characterise the underlying principle it would be "trans women are not women" or "trans women are men". Just as the unifying principle of Scottish Nationalism is that Scotland is a nation, the unifying principle of gender critical thought is TWAM. How each person deals with that is down to the individual, but that is the backbone of the movement. Adding emotion does not change that.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
I am not sure I am comfortable with paragraph 2, but certainly paragraph 1 is bob-on.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
If a person believes the concept of Gender (as something potentially different to Birth Sex) is a load of old cobblers it follows that they feel the same about the Transgender identity. Doesn't it?
On Susan Hall, I'm not convinced that her portrayal of London as a crime-ridden hellhole, covered excessively in the supportive Daily Mail, is of much appeal to actual Londoners, who generally rather enjoy living there. I suspect it will find more favour with those who live far from London, who can't actually vote for the London Mayor.
As it happens, I spent yesterday wandering around my old stamping grounds in London, and am disappointed to report that not only did I not see a single machete or killer knife, I also couldn't find any obvious lawlessness.
I'm sure the parents of the 14-yr old boy killed today will share your disappointment.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
It’s fucking hideous. They should UNESCO list the tourist crowds. This is the queue just to get in the abbey
Outrageous! Don't you have a Press Pass?
I do have a press card but I can’t be arsed with the faff. From what I’ve read the abbey interior is not that special anyway - it’s all about the location
And now I’ve seen the location and the moment you finally approach the Mont is indeed very special and quite sublime. This majestic ensemble in grey gold stone, rising from the Normandy waters
After that it’s just massive crowds outside mediocre creperies. Mont St Michel can go fuck itself until they keep out the proles by charging €300 a day to people like me and only me
Tchoh!
I did warn you a week or so ago when you said you were going. It is very commercialised. We basically cycled up to it. Admired it from our bikes and then went for a beer in one of the modern bars/restaurants on the path leading up to it.
As you say it is impressive to look at, but I couldn't be bothered to go in.
At the other end of the scale we have recently seen the Ruthwell Cross (first visit since about 1977) and appeared to have been the only humans within about 5 miles. Noom factor lessened by the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk but still a miraculous survival from when Northumbria was at the apex of European civilization. And equally miraculously unlocked (though apparently usually locked, like Scottish churches are, key to be had from someone somewhere).
Pretty sure your pin up would enjoy the aesthetics of the Scottish kirk. Or at least take a flinty satisfaction from them which passes for Noom in Weefreeworld.
By Wee Free standards it was full of wicked idols; abominations like bible stories and holy people doing holy things.
SNP MP Kirsty Blackman said: “Fewer people dislike John Swinney than dislike Kate Forbes”
A ringing endorsement.
Not being disliked as much as others can sometimes be a winning strategy, ask John Major or Starmer. Even if like them and Swinney you are as dull as ditchwater
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Interesting because the WM is probably slightly more working-class than the EM.
Reflects the fact that, post Brexit, the white working class are now the strongest Conservative supporting voter demographic after pensioners
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
If a person believes the concept of Gender (as something potentially different to Birth Sex) is a load of old cobblers it follows that they feel the same about the Transgender identity. Doesn't it?
I don't know, sorry. I assume there is somebody somewhere who will say "yes", and somebody somewhere who will say "no".
SNP MP Kirsty Blackman said: “Fewer people dislike John Swinney than dislike Kate Forbes”
A ringing endorsement.
Not being disliked as much as others can sometimes be a winning strategy, ask John Major or Starmer. Even if like them and Swinney you are as dull as ditchwater
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
If a person believes the concept of Gender (as something potentially different to Birth Sex) is a load of old cobblers it follows that they feel the same about the Transgender identity. Doesn't it?
If gender is about identifying as a man or a woman then it's obvious that the concept is not a load of old cobblers.
If it goes beyond 'identifying as' and into the realm of 'I actually am' then it is a load of old cobblers.
I'm not sure what's more annoying.. MoonRabbits hopeless election predictions..or Leon's desire for travel restrictions for the poor..🤨
Election Predictions yet to be proved hopeless.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
If you really think the LibDems will get 16% and 48 seats, then I have a bridge to sell you.
Don’t knock the forecast; cheering me up a great deal!
Oh, I think the LibDems will have a pretty good night. I think they'll marginally increase their vote share, and double (or even slightly more) their seat count.
It will be their best performance since 2010, and will return them to a seat level well in advance of where they were as the Alliance.
But I suspect they won't be approaching 50 seats, nor matching their 1997 vote share.
A fair assessment of the Lib possibilities. I'd suggest a haul of around 30-35 seats and a modest percentage gain of a point or two. They'll very likely be the third party again.
I can recommend Hughes, having seen him in Henry VI (playing Richard) and Richard III at the RSC.
His monologue in Henry VI was properly chilling. ...Then, since the heavens have shaped my body so, Let hell make crook'd my mind to answer it. I have no brother, I am like no brother; And this word 'love,' which graybeards call divine, Be resident in men like one another And not in me: I am myself alone...
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
What it does do is completely derail the “no debate” “science is settled” “affirmative care” model defended, predominantly by middle aged, mid-life transitioned men. You see their “late realisation of their true selves” is bolstered by the evidence of “trans kids” - of which there may be some, but probably nothing like the numbers put on the chemical castration, surgical mutilation conveyor belt as currently practiced. I’m sure you read the bits in Cass where she comments on mental health comorbidities and how practitioners have no idea which child will persist in their trans status and which will desist - often turning out gay. Puberty is often a great solution to gender distress - you could view it as a human right.
SNP MP Kirsty Blackman said: “Fewer people dislike John Swinney than dislike Kate Forbes”
A ringing endorsement.
Not being disliked as much as others can sometimes be a winning strategy, ask John Major or Starmer. Even if like them and Swinney you are as dull as ditchwater
Insult to ditchwater
Major at least had some charisma in person and on the stump (albeit he had Edwina whereas the other 2 seem to have no skeletons)
Apologies if this has been posted already (clue: I don’t spend much time on here!) but today’s More in Common poll has their lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (24%) and it is the largest Labour lead at 19% published by the firm.*
More in Common have generally had the tories higher than most other firms, and the Labour lead lower.
This is hardly good news for the Conservatives coming into the locals.
* Well, they had one other 19% Labour lead in June 2023 off a smaller sample size
Equally I'm only able to jump in/out PB and add comment from time to time, although I check in a couple of times daily.
Indeed, this is a bad poll for the Tories from MiC. Results of course will be leavened as not all councils are on full election, but it really isn't looking good.
Can I just say (sorry I am not able to spend much time on PB because I have a fabulously interesting and varied life and you would be so envious of me if only you knew how fabulous and interesting it actually was and can you believe that people actually spend huge amounts of time, even when they are so called "travelling" on PB posting pictures of beer and temples and dogs and so forth whereas my time is infinitely more worthily spent and if you could only imagine how busy and fabulous and interesting I am you would weep.) I see the Cons are down in the polls.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
If a person believes the concept of Gender (as something potentially different to Birth Sex) is a load of old cobblers it follows that they feel the same about the Transgender identity. Doesn't it?
Well yes. It doesn't mean I'm not going to politely accede to someone who would rather I acted as if that person was the opposite sex. But to my mind having a secret and intangible 'who you really are' in your mind is no different to having a soul, and I don't believe in that either. My view is that you are basically your biology.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I was speaking to a friend who works in this area (child mental health, not directly with trans patients) who said the Cass report was full of really sensible stuff but had inevitably been distorted by people with axes to grind in the media. The main concern of those working with young people affected by this issue seems to be around suicide risk. It's clearly a very tricky area, and now it as seen as too risky to get involved in, so it's hard to find qualified staff while demand remains very high.
Bit unedifying. One side starts jumping up and down and celebrating wildly like they've scored a last minute winner and the other side gets busy trying to trash the whole thing. Meantime we have the people everyone's arguing about not getting treated well - some pushed too quickly to transition, others prevented when they want to, many not able to access any help at all. Demand has increased steeply in recent years and 'supply' is way behind. And being realistic this area is never going to be high up on the priority list for NHS resource.
John Swinney has just said that he's giving a "great deal of thought" to whether to run for SNP leader.
The former deputy first minister said he wanted to ensure it was the right decision for his family, party and country. His potential leadership rival Kate Forbes said something similar a few minutes before.
Asked about his decision to not run for the leadership again last year, John Swinney said "events change" and that it "wouldn't be my style" to ignore the voices telling him to run this time.
Following Nicola is one thing. Following Yousaf you can't help thinking, Christ, I have got to be better than that. Get along a corridor without falling over and I'm ahead.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
If a person believes the concept of Gender (as something potentially different to Birth Sex) is a load of old cobblers it follows that they feel the same about the Transgender identity. Doesn't it?
Well yes. It doesn't mean I'm not going to politely accede to someone who would rather I acted as if that person was the opposite sex. But to my mind having a secret and intangible 'who you really are' in your mind is no different to having a soul, and I don't believe in that either. My view is that you are basically your biology.
Imagine you want to go into the Chelsea end at Spurs vs Chelsea (these days you can't of course just rock up but go with it). You say you are a Chelsea fan but you have a tattoo of that absurd Spurs bird on your forearm but that was from 10 years ago.
The bloke at the turnstiles says you can't come in because you are a Spurs fan. You say no you are a Chelsea fan through and through, as for the tattoo, well who hasn't dabbled in other teams or even sports in their youth.
The fact is that you know you are a Chelsea fan but the bloke refuses to believe you. Plus he says that as you have the tatt then it is dangerous for you to go into the Chelsea end.
Apologies if this has been posted already (clue: I don’t spend much time on here!) but today’s More in Common poll has their lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (24%) and it is the largest Labour lead at 19% published by the firm.*
More in Common have generally had the tories higher than most other firms, and the Labour lead lower.
This is hardly good news for the Conservatives coming into the locals.
* Well, they had one other 19% Labour lead in June 2023 off a smaller sample size
Equally I'm only able to jump in/out PB and add comment from time to time, although I check in a couple of times daily.
Indeed, this is a bad poll for the Tories from MiC. Results of course will be leavened as not all councils are on full election, but it really isn't looking good.
Can I just say (sorry I am not able to spend much time on PB because I have a fabulously interesting and varied life and you would be so envious of me if only you knew how fabulous and interesting it actually was and can you believe that people actually spend huge amounts of time, even when they are so called "travelling" on PB posting pictures of beer and temples and dogs and so forth whereas my time is infinitely more worthily spent and if you could only imagine how busy and fabulous and interesting I am you would weep.) I see the Cons are down in the polls.
Erm . . .
It was more for @Heathener's benefit and I have gone off him/her even more after the "un-British" comment.
Enjoyed all 3 of your LE threads. Thanks for the information
The one to watch from a Green perspective is Bristol.
I think the East Midlands Mayoral race will also be close and within my family 8 votes have gone directly from Labour to Green and none of us care much if that results in the Tories sneaking it in the ;likely 2 horse race.
Frank Adlington-Stringer is a good guy and far better than any of the other Candidates so gets all our votes
My info is that Labour is very confident in the East Midlands. The West Midlands are however clearly on a knife edge.
Just had a look at the East Midlands as a combined authority. The following thoughts strike me:
1) Like the West Midlands, it's unnecessarily confusing to give the East Midlands combined authority a name which is already in use for a different geography. 2) It's not an obvious piece of geography for a mayor. It's not really a city region like WM or GM Liverpool City Region. Some parts (like High Peak) are very remote from the cities. It's hard to see how a coherent vision can be articulated for the whole area.
It's not East Midlands; it's Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.
East Midlands is also Leicestershire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland.
That's my point.
East Midlands Combined Authority = Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire East Midland Region = the above plus Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Rutland
Similarly, West Midlands Combined Authority = Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Walsall and Solihull West Midlands Region = the above plus Staffordshire, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire and Warwickshire.
It's as if we're setting out to confuse people.
WMCA covers the old West Midlands County area. Where "Wumpty" (WMPTE) buses operate. Seems fair enough.
Well yes, but once it had been chosen - poor and ambiguous name though it was - whichever branch of the state decides these things should have then avoided that term for another entirely different piece of geography.
I don't want to seem like a maniac about this. I have a sense of proportion. But it strikes me as a very easy bit of confusion to have avoided.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I was speaking to a friend who works in this area (child mental health, not directly with trans patients) who said the Cass report was full of really sensible stuff but had inevitably been distorted by people with axes to grind in the media. The main concern of those working with young people affected by this issue seems to be around suicide risk. It's clearly a very tricky area, and now it as seen as too risky to get involved in, so it's hard to find qualified staff while demand remains very high.
Bit unedifying. One side starts jumping up and down and celebrating wildly like they've scored a last minute winner and the other side gets busy trying to trash the whole thing. Meantime we have the people everyone's arguing about not getting treated well - some pushed too quickly to transition, others prevented when they want to, many not able to access any help at all. Demand has increased steeply in recent years and 'supply' is way behind. And being realistic this area is never going to be high up on the priority list for NHS resource.
Surely the issue has been lack of good evidence - which Cass highlighted?
The “affirmative care”(sic) defenders, not having the evidence have resorted to lies and smears - because that’s all they’ve got.
Serious bit of male bonding going on there between Sunak and Cleverly. I expect them to move on to a re-enactment of the famous scene between Oliver Reed and Alan Bates in Women in Love next.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I think it’s very important to name it. Evil under the sun knows no distinction of race, creed, or colour. It exists everywhere on earth. It is the job of all good people to call it out.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I think it’s very important to name it. Evil under the sun knows no distinction of race, creed, or colour. It exists everywhere on earth. It is the job of all good people to call it out.
"Tough on the Indian mentality, tough on the causes of the Indian mentality."
By the way, on that subject, if you want a damned good read then I thoroughly recommend John Carreyrou’s book ‘Bad Blood’ winner of the FT/McKinsey Business Book of the Year.
A terrific read all about the appalling Theranos scandal and how he, and the real heroes constantly threatened by Elizabeth Holmes and Sunny Balwani, exposed it.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I think it’s very important to name it. Evil under the sun knows no distinction of race, creed, or colour. It exists everywhere on earth. It is the job of all good people to call it out.
And the British have this profound and wholly non-evil character such that the possession of evil makes one "un-British".
Apologies if this has been posted already (clue: I don’t spend much time on here!) but today’s More in Common poll has their lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (24%) and it is the largest Labour lead at 19% published by the firm.*
More in Common have generally had the tories higher than most other firms, and the Labour lead lower.
This is hardly good news for the Conservatives coming into the locals.
* Well, they had one other 19% Labour lead in June 2023 off a smaller sample size
Equally I'm only able to jump in/out PB and add comment from time to time, although I check in a couple of times daily.
Indeed, this is a bad poll for the Tories from MiC. Results of course will be leavened as not all councils are on full election, but it really isn't looking good.
Can I just say (sorry I am not able to spend much time on PB because I have a fabulously interesting and varied life and you would be so envious of me if only you knew how fabulous and interesting it actually was and can you believe that people actually spend huge amounts of time, even when they are so called "travelling" on PB posting pictures of beer and temples and dogs and so forth whereas my time is infinitely more worthily spent and if you could only imagine how busy and fabulous and interesting I am you would weep.) I see the Cons are down in the polls.
Erm . . .
Topping: I am guessing that somewhat rude comment was directed at my answer to Heather on his comments.
With respect, I enjoy looking into PB and commenting from time to time as I am interested in politics and psephology and have been for a long time. Regarding posting pictures of fabulous temples and glorious holidays and suchlike, no I don't tend to do this. I'm not much of a one for social media or indeed showing off. So you are knocking on a closed door there.
I'm usually too knackered, I work ingovernment running sheltered housing for elderly people, perhaps for your somebody similar your mother or grandparents...
Not everybody lives in some contrived Fantasyland.
I've spent some time with the Cass Report and I cannot for the life of me see why it's being touted as some killer document that settles the Trans debate once and for all in favour of the 'antis' faction (or 'sex realists' if we must). To me it just looks like a series of sensible sounding recommendations about improving the care offered to children presenting with gender distress.
I think it can be both, if you were to accept that many of the "sex realists" were good faith critics of what was the status quo, and didn't fit the trans-hating caricature that their opponents created.
The whole point and unifying principle of gender critical thought is that trans women are not women, usually phrased as "trans women are men" or "TWAM". Opinions vary as what is to be done with them, with at one end believing that they are to be dealt with politely but no further (eg calling them "her" in social situations but not allowed to use toilets), and others believing that they are not to be so characterised in any circumstances. But in no case is the status of "woman" to be bestowed upon them regarding single-sex situations.
If a person believes the concept of Gender (as something potentially different to Birth Sex) is a load of old cobblers it follows that they feel the same about the Transgender identity. Doesn't it?
Well yes. It doesn't mean I'm not going to politely accede to someone who would rather I acted as if that person was the opposite sex. But to my mind having a secret and intangible 'who you really are' in your mind is no different to having a soul, and I don't believe in that either. My view is that you are basically your biology.
Yes, I get that. But there is the condition of gender dysphoria (gender identity differing from birth sex). And the law (the GRA) recognizes this identity as valid.
So ... and I don't mean this in a bad way ... it doesn't matter what you believe, does it?
Apologies if this has been posted already (clue: I don’t spend much time on here!) but today’s More in Common poll has their lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (24%) and it is the largest Labour lead at 19% published by the firm.*
More in Common have generally had the tories higher than most other firms, and the Labour lead lower.
This is hardly good news for the Conservatives coming into the locals.
* Well, they had one other 19% Labour lead in June 2023 off a smaller sample size
Equally I'm only able to jump in/out PB and add comment from time to time, although I check in a couple of times daily.
Indeed, this is a bad poll for the Tories from MiC. Results of course will be leavened as not all councils are on full election, but it really isn't looking good.
Can I just say (sorry I am not able to spend much time on PB because I have a fabulously interesting and varied life and you would be so envious of me if only you knew how fabulous and interesting it actually was and can you believe that people actually spend huge amounts of time, even when they are so called "travelling" on PB posting pictures of beer and temples and dogs and so forth whereas my time is infinitely more worthily spent and if you could only imagine how busy and fabulous and interesting I am you would weep.) I see the Cons are down in the polls.
Erm . . .
Topping: I am guessing that somewhat rude comment was directed at my answer to Heather on his comments.
With respect, I enjoy looking into PB and commenting from time to time as I am interested in politics and psephology and have been for a long time. Regarding posting pictures of fabulous temples and glorious holidays and suchlike, no I don't tend to do this. I'm not much of a one for social media or indeed showing off. So you are knocking on a closed door there.
I'm usually too knackered, I work ingovernment running sheltered housing for elderly people, perhaps for your somebody similar your mother or grandparents...
Not everybody lives in some contrived Fantasyland.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I think it’s very important to name it. Evil under the sun knows no distinction of race, creed, or colour. It exists everywhere on earth. It is the job of all good people to call it out.
Which is why it makes no sense to call it un-British, or to ascribe it to Indianness.
Serious bit of male bonding going on there between Sunak and Cleverly. I expect them to move on to a re-enactment of the famous scene between Oliver Reed and Alan Bates in Women in Love next.
The Turkish censor was worried about that wrestling scene so ordered everything from the first grapple to collapsing sweating onto the carpet cut.
In Turkey it was known as “the great buggering scene”!
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I think it’s very important to name it. Evil under the sun knows no distinction of race, creed, or colour. It exists everywhere on earth. It is the job of all good people to call it out.
Your turn of phrase was unfortunate.
I doubt you meant your comment to be a racial slur, more a personal sleight against Sunak, nonetheless your terms were clumsy and you know what a bunch of snowflakes we have on here.
Don’t tie yourself in knots over this @TOPPING. Archbishop John Sentamu once told me, laughing, that it’s the ultimate white liberal’s worst nightmare to tell a black man he’s wrong. Sunak’s evil is particularly pernicious because, like Badenoch and Braverman, he has benefitted from this country’s rich multi-cultural diversity and is now attempting to undo everything that made this place so generous and welcoming. If left unchecked and in office, would dismantle the fabric of Britain and it social conscience. We don’t have much left to be proud of, but that’s something
And, as you know, I’m one of the few women on here so spare the other point.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I think it’s very important to name it. Evil under the sun knows no distinction of race, creed, or colour. It exists everywhere on earth. It is the job of all good people to call it out.
Your turn of phrase was unfortunate.
I doubt you meant your comment to be a racial slur, more a personal sleight against Sunak, but you know what a bunch of snowflakes we have on here.
Yep good point. Delicate petals us all. Just a slip of the tongue I have no doubt. British PM of Indian descent is "un-British". I mean who hasn't by mistake used a racist slur of this type.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I think it’s very important to name it. Evil under the sun knows no distinction of race, creed, or colour. It exists everywhere on earth. It is the job of all good people to call it out.
"Tough on the Indian mentality, tough on the causes of the Indian mentality."
Starting Topics: 1. Judge Merchan has found Trump in contempt for 9 violations of the gag order in his election interference trial, fining him $1,000 each. He's also been threatened with jail time if he violates the order again. Trump has now violated his pretrial release conditions in all 4 of his criminal cases. He's testing the limits of the court and judicial system because he has no respect for the rule of law. None of this will matter to his supporters in the Republican Party who now view the rule of law as nothing but a speed bump in their path to absolute power.
2. In a new @Time interview, Trump lays out the most brazen, disturbing picture of what a second Trump term would look like yet. He tells Time he would “let red states monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans." When asked if he will pardon every one of the J6 insurrectionists, "absolutely yes." Nothing about Trump is normal and no one should think that he and President Biden are similar candidates. Biden respects the rule of law, individual rights, and democracy. Trump wants to make himself a dictator and destroy America by turning it into a fascist nation.
3. Trump's ongoing criminal trial continues to highlight his weaknesses on a national stage, and he can't slow it any longer. He tried to delay it but now everyone knows about his indiscretions, and his wife hates him. He's humiliated his family, and is sitting in cold courtrooms alone. His dementia is on full display, as he can barely stay awake in the middle of his own trial proceedings. Trump falls asleep in the courtroom because he stays up all night dejected, afraid and all alone. Try as he might, the only person to blame is Donald Trump.
The judge's comments on the finding of contempt were quite pointed, in essentially stating it's unfortunate $1000 is the maximum rather than something which might be proportionate to the wealth of a particular defendant, noting that the former is not much of a punishment for some. So it is $1000 per violation or jail, but he wishes he had more options.
I know he threatened Trump with jail in the Order, but will he dare do it? Because Trump will violate again, no question.
It’s not a racial slur, it’s the truth. Sunak belongs to that old school Indian businessman mentality of Master-slave. Indian societies are full of it and when it is accompanied by large dollops of money it soon translates from caste justification to dog-eats-dog.
It’s deeply unpleasant and profoundly un-British.
It might work in Singapore but not here, thanks. Not on this nation’s watch.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
Why the fuck is this UNESCO World Heritage Listed already, when the Jobbie building in Edinburgh, or the Holyrood Parliament masterpiece, have yet to even make the “tentative list”?!
And what about “the ensemble of Camden High Street retail centre and its homeless tents”. Been waiting for status for yonks. Yet this crap, a couple of houses and a chapel on a muddy island? - the French bribe a couple of UNESCO dudes in Paris and bingo. Listed
Pff!
I remember going there as a young whipper-snapper and being given one of those big Franc notes that were like wrapping paper to occupy myself in the shops whilst my parents and their friends enjoyed post lunch drinks. I bought a comb that was made like a flick knife with a crocodile design handle. Obviously when I got home I took apart a real knife and replaced the comb and thought I was the nuts with my flick knife until my sister grassed me up and my parents confiscated it.
I’m not sure what connects flick-combs with Mont St Michel to warrant selling them there but maybe they were a thing with the monks for keeping their tonsures neat.
My only visit was ill-timed, on a peak day in summer when the place was heaving with tourists. Still beautiful especially from a distance but the magic is dimmed when you're struggling up the streets being elbowed by fellow visitors. I was told then that the best thing is to stay overnight, as in so many tourist honeypots, and I can well imagine on a quiet sunny evening once all the day trippers have gone it would be wonderful.
It’s fucking hideous. They should UNESCO list the tourist crowds. This is the queue just to get in the abbey
Outrageous! Don't you have a Press Pass?
No - look, even an important journalist like Janet Street Porter is being made to queue.
Don’t tie yourself in knots over this @TOPPING. Archbishop John Sentamu once told me, laughing, that it’s the ultimate white liberal’s worst nightmare to tell a black man he’s wrong. Sunak’s evil is particularly pernicious because, like Badenoch and Braverman, he has benefitted from this country’s rich multi-cultural diversity and is now attempting to undo everything that made this place so generous and welcoming. If left unchecked and in office, would dismantle the fabric of Britain and it social conscience. We don’t have much left to be proud of, but that’s something
And, as you know, I’m one of the few women on here so spare the other point.
He's wrong because he's wrong not because he's "un-British" (where being British would presumably make him "right").
You fucking idiot.
Edit: "As John Sentamu said to me once". Comment of the year.
I hope Rwanda is binned on day one, assuming Labour wins.
Along with this latest hideous attack on people with disabilities (including mental health).
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
Hmm this post I find vaguely problematic in criticising a British PM of immigrant stock for being "profoundly un-British".
I think it’s very important to name it. Evil under the sun knows no distinction of race, creed, or colour. It exists everywhere on earth. It is the job of all good people to call it out.
Your turn of phrase was unfortunate.
I doubt you meant your comment to be a racial slur, more a personal sleight against Sunak, but you know what a bunch of snowflakes we have on here.
Yep good point. Delicate petals us all. Just a slip of the tongue I have no doubt. British PM of Indian descent is "un-British". I mean who hasn't by mistake used a racist slur of this type.
Perhaps it was merely satire, like "letter boxes","bank robbers".and "water melon smiles".
It’s not a racial slur, it’s the truth. Sunak belongs to that old school Indian businessman mentality of Master-slave. Indian societies are full of it and when it is accompanied by large dollops of money it soon translates from caste justification to dog-eats-dog.
It’s deeply unpleasant and profoundly un-British.
It might work in Singapore but not here, thanks. Not on this nation’s watch.
Comments
Markets might be wrong, but it's not the high certainty event (rate cut before July election) fhY you suggest.
Starting Topics:
1. Judge Merchan has found Trump in contempt for 9 violations of the gag order in his election interference trial, fining him $1,000 each. He's also been threatened with jail time if he violates the order again. Trump has now violated his pretrial release conditions in all 4 of his criminal cases. He's testing the limits of the court and judicial system because he has no respect for the rule of law. None of this will matter to his supporters in the Republican Party who now view the rule of law as nothing but a speed bump in their path to absolute power.
2. In a new @Time interview, Trump lays out the most brazen, disturbing picture of what a second Trump term would look like yet. He tells Time he would “let red states monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans." When asked if he will pardon every one of the J6 insurrectionists, "absolutely yes." Nothing about Trump is normal and no one should think that he and President Biden are similar candidates. Biden respects the rule of law, individual rights, and democracy. Trump wants to make himself a dictator and destroy America by turning it into a fascist nation.
3. Trump's ongoing criminal trial continues to highlight his weaknesses on a national stage, and he can't slow it any longer. He tried to delay it but now everyone knows about his indiscretions, and his wife hates him. He's humiliated his family, and is sitting in cold courtrooms alone. His dementia is on full display, as he can barely stay awake in the middle of his own trial proceedings. Trump falls asleep in the courtroom because he stays up all night dejected, afraid and all alone. Try as he might, the only person to blame is Donald Trump.
Because we speak in Brummie or Black Country brogues does that mean we are a bit Benny from Crossroads?
Perhaps questioners at the Inquiry should ask the crack (in one sense) PO legal eagles, "Did you wipe your fat ass this morning?" and see IF they have any recollection of THAT?
But things such as right of way and feu duties were very long-standing problems. Indeed, the lack of a right of way system was argued by landowners to "prove" that there was zero access of any kind. Very fortunately that was ignored.
https://www.thenational.scot/politics/24288078.owen-jones-celebrating-humza-yousafs-fall-beware/
https://x.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1785320769720914093
I may be misleading myself by the existence of large, prosperous, but not terribly well populated areas of the East Mids.
East Midlands is also Leicestershire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland.
Is some "£$%^&* actually calling it "East Midlands"?
East Midlands Combined Authority = Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire
East Midland Region = the above plus Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Rutland
Similarly,
West Midlands Combined Authority = Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Walsall and Solihull
West Midlands Region = the above plus Staffordshire, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire and Warwickshire.
It's as if we're setting out to confuse people.
The party might keep the Rwanda plan until it has agreed a returns policy with the EU.
By Andrew Marr"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2024/04/would-labour-keep-the-rwanda-scheme
I confused Staffordshire with Lincolnshire.
If I say "easily done", does that convince ?
http://poppy.nsms.ox.ac.uk/woruldhord/files/original/e2a4fa09344348d692c32563dd8b4c5b.jpg
Indeed, this is a bad poll for the Tories from MiC. Results of course will be leavened as not all councils are on full election, but it really isn't looking good.
Edit: and the cross has been in the Kirkyard for centuries. Ditto, for instance, Nigg (Ross and Cromarty).
Point being that kina only couldn't see Cass as a win for TERFs because he had a caricature in his head of what they were and thought. Not sure that adding another inexact definition helps all too much. Not much room in your definition for empathy and compassion.
https://youtu.be/jbu0kmCeLSI?si=cK8VBdOE53t_87I3
I'm sure the denizens of Scotland are wholly aligned with his priorities.
You go, Owen.
It will be their best performance since 2010, and will return them to a seat level well in advance of where they were as the Alliance.
But I suspect they won't be approaching 50 seats, nor matching their 1997 vote share.
It will be their best performance since 2010, and will return them to a seat level well in advance of where they were as the Alliance.
But I suspect they won't be approaching 50 seats, nor matching their 1997 vote share.
Rishi Sunak belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog.
It’s profoundly un-British.
As it happens, I spent yesterday wandering around my old stamping grounds in London, and am disappointed to report that not only did I not see a single machete or killer knife, I also couldn't find any obvious lawlessness.
Actually she was pretty worldly, CoS, and it has to be said looked down a bit on the more extreme sects.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C6YTBZ6MDjj/
If it goes beyond 'identifying as' and into the realm of 'I actually am' then it is a load of old cobblers.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/apr/30/shardlake-star-arthur-hughes-cj-sansoms-disabled-tudor-sleuth
I can recommend Hughes, having seen him in Henry VI (playing Richard) and Richard III at the RSC.
His monologue in Henry VI was properly chilling.
...Then, since the heavens have shaped my body so,
Let hell make crook'd my mind to answer it.
I have no brother, I am like no brother;
And this word 'love,' which graybeards call divine,
Be resident in men like one another
And not in me: I am myself alone...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1v_zN25vrjg
It doesn't mean I'm not going to politely accede to someone who would rather I acted as if that person was the opposite sex.
But to my mind having a secret and intangible 'who you really are' in your mind is no different to having a soul, and I don't believe in that either. My view is that you are basically your biology.
The bloke at the turnstiles says you can't come in because you are a Spurs fan. You say no you are a Chelsea fan through and through, as for the tattoo, well who hasn't dabbled in other teams or even sports in their youth.
The fact is that you know you are a Chelsea fan but the bloke refuses to believe you. Plus he says that as you have the tatt then it is dangerous for you to go into the Chelsea end.
The gender debate in a nutshell.
I don't want to seem like a maniac about this. I have a sense of proportion. But it strikes me as a very easy bit of confusion to have avoided.
The “affirmative care”(sic) defenders, not having the evidence have resorted to lies and smears - because that’s all they’ve got.
I expect them to move on to a re-enactment of the famous scene between Oliver Reed and Alan Bates in Women in Love next.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/30/teaching-assistants-are-the-backbone-of-a-crumbling-education-system
A terrific read all about the appalling Theranos scandal and how he, and the real heroes constantly threatened by Elizabeth Holmes and Sunny Balwani, exposed it.
Make sure you get the 2023 updated post-trial version
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bad-Blood-Secrets-Silicon-Startup/dp/1035006774
That it?
NEW THREAD
With respect, I enjoy looking into PB and commenting from time to time as I am interested in politics and psephology and have been for a long time. Regarding posting pictures of fabulous temples and glorious holidays and suchlike, no I don't tend to do this. I'm not much of a one for social media or indeed showing off. So you are knocking on a closed door there.
I'm usually too knackered, I work ingovernment running sheltered housing for elderly people, perhaps for your somebody similar your mother or grandparents...
Not everybody lives in some contrived Fantasyland.
So ... and I don't mean this in a bad way ... it doesn't matter what you believe, does it?
In Turkey it was known as “the great buggering scene”!
I doubt you meant your comment to be a racial slur, more a personal sleight against Sunak, nonetheless your terms were clumsy and you know what a bunch of snowflakes we have on here.
And, as you know, I’m one of the few women on here so spare the other point.
I know he threatened Trump with jail in the Order, but will he dare do it? Because Trump will violate again, no question.
It’s deeply unpleasant and profoundly un-British.
It might work in Singapore but not here, thanks. Not on this nation’s watch.
You fucking idiot.
Edit: "As John Sentamu said to me once". Comment of the year.
But we have a fabric of social conscience and welfare in this country which that nasty piece of work wants to dismantle.
Judgement comes.