7000 have already gone to Ireland. It's already working.
All the 7000 because of Rwanda scheme?
We can’t have a proper debate here if you are going to say silly things like that.
Irish politicians have a problem, their voters really don’t like these immigrants, and it’s an election year there too, so are happy to scapegoat London for the problem to take the heat off themselves, whilst London is more than happy for their policy to get the blame for the scenes in Ireland. It’s a bizarre diplomatic row between governments who share exactly the same hymn sheet! Voters in both countries are the poorer for this if you genuine believe all those 7000 are there because of Rwanda policy. Lawyers working with migrants in Ireland are only seeing a small uptick because of Rwanda - and even then your mind appears closed to how someone gaming the system might just be saying whatever they think helps their case.
Certainly Labours mistake in calling it nothing more than a gimmick, has quickly dated very badly. pledging to bin the scheme on day 1, wasting all the time and costs getting here as it’s binned despite being unproven the scheme has failed and won’t work, is actually building this into a huge General Election vote winner for the conservatives. Truth is, in the minds eye of every voter they can see the Tories magic bullet to stop illegal migration, but they can’t see Labours. If Labour are taking 5 minutes to explain why the Rwanda Policy won’t work to justify why they are junking it, and a further 5 minutes to explain what they will do differently and why it will deliver better results, then Labour have already lost the General Election argument on this one.
I suspect actual boat numbers through the summer will make Labour's argument for them.
Unless we have a July election of course!
And what is Labour's argument? What do they plan to do about it?
Oh, that's right - nothing.
Nope. Labour's plan is quite clear, it is to cooperate with our neighbours, take a quota of asylum seekers in exchange for being able to return people who cross the Channel, spend more on asylum caseworkers to help clear the c.200k backlog of those awaiting an initial decision on their application.
I'd like to see them go further: e.g. allow/make asylum-seekers work to pay for their keep, encourage illegal immigrants to shop employers in return for a route to citizenship, introduce ID cards, tighten up legal immigration which of course swamps illegal by some margin. These and similar would fuel a right-wing media frenzy so I can't blame Labour for keeping them off the agenda at present.
Labour has a plan but you'd rather see this end-of-life Tory shambles spaff money up the wall on a scheme that is as unworkable as it is cruel. Half a £bn is it so far?
Half a £bn or £500m would have paid for a lot caseworkers to clear the backlog.
And it's that backlog that encourages people to come - if you claim was dealt with in 4 weeks and you were chucked out at the end you wouldn't risk it. Currently its 2 to 3 years by which point most immigrants have built up enough history to be qualify for residency...
Yep, they should be on boat home within 2 weeks for sure or they go to Rwanda. French manage it much better.
Given the number of people sat in Calais trying to get on a boat to the UK how do the French manage it better?
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Methodist was he, this Humza Yousaf chap? And surely Kate Forbes brought up Kate Forbes' religion. People often do when it means a lot to them.
He never stopped banging on about his religion , streaming prayers from Bute House etc and fact that there were too many white people in Scotland. He is a complete bellend.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Hainault latest: 'Stabbings' reported as man with sword attacks people near Tube station The Metropolitan Police says a 36-year-old man wielding a sword has been arrested after an attack on members of the public and two police officers near an east London Tube station. Officers said they are not looking for more suspects and the attack "does not appear to be terror related". https://news.sky.com/story/hainault-latest-stabbings-reported-as-man-with-sword-attacks-people-near-tube-station-13126112
Hainault is in the Havering & Redbridge constituency for the London Assembly and Mayoral elections in two days' time, and in Wes Streeting's Ilford North parliamentary constituency.
I wonder what considerable sacrifice he has in mind? Less time for rimming the Donald and gurning on GB News for £s?
What a little tease he is. Some Tories want him so badly its sad.
Surely he has to stand as a Conservative in some coastal Essex hellhole.
But would that move as many possible Conservative voters away as attract Reform voters back?
He surely has to back Reform.
We'll soon find out. Does he want to luxuriate in being the "king across the water" for the gamey right or does he want to gird up, pull his trunks on and take the plunge?
Thanks @Stodge. It's a shame though that local elections are mostly seen as a barometer of national voting intention. Largely due to the very limited powers of local government to do anything apart from declare bankruptcy I suppose.
I only get a supremely pointless PCC election to vote for. Isn't it time we abolished these?
I'm genuinely unsure. They do get to set priorities for what the police should respond to first. My local Labour PCC candidate is a lawyer specialising in prosecuting rape and sexual violence, who proposes to make that a priority, contrasting it with the current Tory's priorities which include issues like action against travellers. That seems to me a reasonably concrete issue but how far it affects actual policing on the ground I really don't know. Does anyone here have closer experience?
That sounds like the priorities that were tried under Blair - 100% on the serious crimes, only get to the small stuff if that was all done. Which meant that a number of crimes became completely ignored. The problem, in turn, with that approach is that this feeds into the "broken windows" effect - the community starts feeling that it's an anything goes area.
In the case of the traveller thing, I witnessed a situation where a community was repeatedly told that traveller crimes (shop lifting and assault mainly) wouldn't be dealt with - because any attempt at arrests would be expensive due to the resulting disorder. The end result was inevitable - some people in the community took their own action. The next day the town was flooded with police trying to find the perpetrators. Of the action against the travellers.
We had some strange things on the in Notts - but I think after your time, @NickPalmer .
One of our Chief Constables had a strange obsession with recording non-criminal "Hate Incidents", for a reason I am still baffled by. It was in my mind akin to the pointless police activity of sending out notes saying "you have not committed a chargeable offence but we have had a (my note: often frivolous) complaint and Big Brother is Watching You" - which is a current petty-authoritarian habit. *
It did not help that it was around the same time as our community PCSOs were reduced to almost nothing,
* I pointed out one of these sent recently to a fellow-activist who reports ASBO parking and dangerous driving in Ealing, and trying to embarrass the Council into doing something for child safety on a rat-run residential road.
People have a problem with religious politicians when the politician gives the impression of taking their orders from their religion, and not from the voters.
I wonder what considerable sacrifice he has in mind? Less time for rimming the Donald and gurning on GB News for £s?
What a little tease he is. Some Tories want him so badly its sad.
Surely he has to stand as a Conservative in some coastal Essex hellhole.
But would that move as many possible Conservative voters away as attract Reform voters back?
He surely has to back Reform.
We'll soon find out. Does he want to luxuriate in being the "king across the water" for the gamey right or does he want to gird up, pull his trunks on and take the plunge?
Steady on; you'll have TSE posting that picture again in the next header.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
I wonder what considerable sacrifice he has in mind? Less time for rimming the Donald and gurning on GB News for £s?
What a little tease he is. Some Tories want him so badly its sad.
Surely he has to stand as a Conservative in some coastal Essex hellhole.
But would that move as many possible Conservative voters away as attract Reform voters back?
He surely has to back Reform.
We'll soon find out. Does he want to luxuriate in being the "king across the water" for the gamey right or does he want to gird up, pull his trunks on and take the plunge?
Steady on; you'll have TSE posting that picture again in the next header.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
Yes @MattW can you tell us why they did this? There is even the irony of the bike route sign on the structure. I can only think to stop scrambler bikes (but any one on a scrambler bike can lift it over), but it stops any wheelchair or such like and is a pain to cyclists and it is a cycle route.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
Some sort of temporary camera trap and sufficient enforcement action instead?
All too often innocent people are being made to suffer due to poorly thought through attempts to deal with a troublesome minority.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
It's flat out illegal, and trivially easy to work out that it is though. So the council is paying once for the barriers, twice for the removal and maybe thrice for potential compensation, not to forget four times for a brief/silk or w/e.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
Schrodinger's Off Road Motorcyclist.
(It is not lawful to prevent access for lawful users to address a policing problem, but it looks like a dramatic, effective intervention to some locals.)
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
I was just thinking the same. What is the thinking behind the two girders? What are they supposed to be stopping?
People have a problem with religious politicians when the politician gives the impression of taking their orders from their religion, and not from the voters.
Which is why the average UK politician aiming at swing voters if they state a religion at all say C of E or Church of Scotland.
Some Muslims and Roman Catholics can also get away with it if not too hardline in their adherance to Imam or Vatican doctrine eg Yousaf and Biden. For evangelicals however often their faith defines their life see Forbes or Farron or Kruger and so it leads their political life too (Pentecostal Morrison in Australia did manage it for one win but largely by focusing on the economy, same with hardline Catholic Abbott by focusing on immigration)
@LukeTryl 🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention in today’s Playbook finds the lowest Conservative share we’ve recorded at just 24% and the Labour lead at 19pts.
🌹 Labour 43% (-) 🌳Conservatives 24% (-2) 🔶Lib Dem 11% (+1) 🟣Reform UK 11% (-) 💚Greens 6% (-1)
N: 2053 26-28/4
I trust he shall have multiple requests for explanation, and endless overanalyses of "good weeks" etc etc based on this latest MOE poll.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
Some sort of temporary camera trap and sufficient enforcement action instead?
All too often innocent people are being made to suffer due to poorly thought through attempts to deal with a troublesome minority.
Round here the problem scroats all ride round sans helmet but with a balaclava and no identifying marks. Cameras wouldn't be much use.
There have been campaigns to confiscate any illegally ridden motorbikes but these tended to concentrate on popular areas and only ever last for a couple of weeks.
The main problem seems to be that these bikes are too cheap...
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
It's flat out illegal, and trivially easy to work out that it is though. So the council is paying once for the barriers, twice for the removal and maybe thrice for potential compensation, not to forget four times for a brief/silk or w/e.
Is it the council or the Woodland Trust which is responsible, please?
Thanks, Stodge, for a thoughtful post. And Good Morning to one and all. I used to live near Basildon, and indeed worked in the town for a while. There is, or was, some resentment in outer areas of the Council’s area, such as Wickford at being linked with the New Town. Especially true of Billericay, which at one time, long ago, was an important town when Basildon was just a few huts.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
This is certainly preferable to 's/he' which was a feminist cause in the 1970s.
Thanks Stodge for your comments and yes it may be the Tories holding 1 seat while losing 2 in a few of the 3 seat wards up in the all out elections enables them to hold EFDC. I largely agree with your other predictions.
Though Labour should certainly be aiming to win Basildon, Gloucester and Harlow and also take control of Nuneaton and Redditch on Thursday if they are heading for a landslide. Those were all areas won by Blair in 1997
As far as I recall, the local elections in 1997 were only a few weeks after the general election. As a result the Conservative vote was even more depleted for the local elections. This year the locals are (?)several months before the GE. If most of these councils go labour on Friday, then Starmer really should be heading for a 1997 style landslide.
Labour won all the parliamentary seats for those areas in 1997 was my point ie under Blair Labour won the Harlow, Nuneaton, Gloucester and Redditch and Basildon parliamentary seats. New Labour had already taken control of all the district councils for those areas in the local elections in the years prior to 1997 (the 1997 locals were county not district elections and took place on the same day and the Tories actually made a handful of gains relative to 1993)
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
Some sort of temporary camera trap and sufficient enforcement action instead?
All too often innocent people are being made to suffer due to poorly thought through attempts to deal with a troublesome minority.
Round here the problem scroats all ride round sans helmet but with a balaclava and no identifying marks. Cameras wouldn't be much use.
There have been campaigns to confiscate any illegally ridden motorbikes but these tended to concentrate on popular areas and only ever last for a couple of weeks.
The main problem seems to be that these bikes are too cheap...
The main problem seems to be that some people are ****s.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
"The Prime Minister looked at their reflection in the window as the rain swept down. "How has it come to this" they thought, as they looked at the polls..."
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
Some sort of temporary camera trap and sufficient enforcement action instead?
All too often innocent people are being made to suffer due to poorly thought through attempts to deal with a troublesome minority.
Round here the problem scroats all ride round sans helmet but with a balaclava and no identifying marks. Cameras wouldn't be much use.
There have been campaigns to confiscate any illegally ridden motorbikes but these tended to concentrate on popular areas and only ever last for a couple of weeks.
The main problem seems to be that these bikes are too cheap...
The main problem seems to be that some people are ****s.
Whilst that is indeed the fundamental problem, I fear it is not one that can be solved.
Thanks Stodge for your comments and yes it may be the Tories holding 1 seat while losing 2 in a few of the 3 seat wards up in the all out elections enables them to hold EFDC. I largely agree with your other predictions.
Though Labour should certainly be aiming to win Basildon, Gloucester and Harlow and also take control of Nuneaton and Redditch on Thursday if they are heading for a landslide. Those were all areas won by Blair in 1997
Hasn't the dynamic in Nuneaton and Redditch changed significantly since 1997? On my regular visits to Redditch it seems very much a Conservative fiefdom.
If Redditch and Nuneaton stay Blue on Thursday and Street holds on, that suggests the Conservatives will avoid a landslide defeat at least
The almighty nonsense of TWAW continues inexorably to crumble. First, the NHS recognises right to single sex berthing. Then Keir Starmer tells a ferociously focused Susannah Reid that he only disagreed with Duffield's "only women have a cervix", in order to avoid "toxicity". Wow
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
It’s more gender unknown than gender neutral and isn’t an attribute of the person you’re referring to.
Thanks Stodge for your comments and yes it may be the Tories holding 1 seat while losing 2 in a few of the 3 seat wards up in the all out elections enables them to hold EFDC. I largely agree with your other predictions.
Though Labour should certainly be aiming to win Basildon, Gloucester and Harlow and also take control of Nuneaton and Redditch on Thursday if they are heading for a landslide. Those were all areas won by Blair in 1997
As far as I recall, the local elections in 1997 were only a few weeks after the general election. As a result the Conservative vote was even more depleted for the local elections. This year the locals are (?)several months before the GE. If most of these councils go labour on Friday, then Starmer really should be heading for a 1997 style landslide.
Labour won all the parliamentary seats for those areas in 1997 was my point ie under Blair Labour won the Harlow, Nuneaton, Gloucester and Redditch and Basildon parliamentary seats. New Labour had already taken control of all the district councils for those areas in the local elections in the years prior to 1997 (the 1997 locals were county not district elections and took place on the same day and the Tories actually made a handful of gains relative to 1993)
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
"The Prime Minister looked at their reflection in the window as the rain swept down. "How has it come to this" they thought, as they looked at the polls..."
That reads weird only because we instinctively know the gender of the Prime Minister so you'd expect to not use gender-neutral terminology.
If you were referring to an anonymous Cabinet Minister, or the media's favourite phrase "senior MP" so we don't know who it is, then they becomes appropriate again.
Nick Ferrari on LBC claims two Labour MPs are about to defect to Gorgeous's latest vehicle.
Nice way of purging the crazies before the next election where they will, presumably, lose their seats to a Starmerite.
I suspect the defectors might be from inner city Northern seats with a particular pro-Gaza ethnic focus. They may well retain their seats for Galloway.
Thanks, Stodge, for a thoughtful post. And Good Morning to one and all. I used to live near Basildon, and indeed worked in the town for a while. There is, or was, some resentment in outer areas of the Council’s area, such as Wickford at being linked with the New Town. Especially true of Billericay, which at one time, long ago, was an important town when Basildon was just a few huts.
Basildon is also interesting because it's very swingy. In a good year the Tories win all seats, and in a bad year none (at least that used to be the case when the LDs were stronger in Billericay and Wickford than they are now).
I think it's also very telling that Reform could only find a single candidate in what is surely Brexit Central. UKIP won council seats here at their peak. 5% or less for Reform come the GE.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
Yes @MattW can you tell us why they did this? There is even the irony of the bike route sign on the structure. I can only think to stop scrambler bikes (but any one on a scrambler bike can lift it over), but it stops any wheelchair or such like and is a pain to cyclists and it is a cycle route.
My first thought was that they drink Irn Bru and like girders. Scrambler bikers will welcome the bunny hop opportunity.
You'll see overgrown tight chicanes at the side (which are also unlawful as inaccessible). This (below) is what it looked like in 2007 (from Wikipedia), with perhaps £30-50k spent on unnecessary ironwork for no reason whatsoever - that's 100 posts and 200m of fence to split 'lanes'.
It's a weird culture here where authorities spend money on this kind of cage, and police or PCSOs are defunded, with no thought to who is locked out, and some locals like it because they believe it works. And when a problem that did not exist does not appear, they will continue to believe the folk myth, and seem willing to go to the gallows to defend it. Which local councillors, and sometimes police, will support.
The roots are in lack of regard for the public realm, and decades of police / planners opposing convenient routes by foot, cycle or mobility aid, for "security" at Planning Stage.
Nick Ferrari on LBC claims two Labour MPs are about to defect to Gorgeous's latest vehicle.
Nice way of purging the crazies before the next election where they will, presumably, lose their seats to a Starmerite.
I suspect the defectors might be from inner city Northern seats with a particular pro-Gaza ethnic focus. They may well retain their seats for Galloway.
Nice to see Hamas getting a foothold at Westminster.
Nick Ferrari on LBC claims two Labour MPs are about to defect to Gorgeous's latest vehicle.
Nice way of purging the crazies before the next election where they will, presumably, lose their seats to a Starmerite.
I suspect the defectors might be from inner city Northern seats with a particular pro-Gaza ethnic focus. They may well retain their seats for Galloway.
The worst possible time to do so is in a general election when the normal people come out to vote. No doubt they will be hoping that Gaza remains salient by then, but given we're seemingly looking at a decent ceasefire shortly and the sands of time are passing (and will have passed further by GE time) I'd not hold out much hope for them.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
It’s more gender unknown than gender neutral and isn’t an attribute of the person you’re referring to.
Its not an attribute as it is a generic third party singular for unknown or neutral.
You can only use he/she on the other hand based on the other person's attributes, ie if they are male or female. If you don't know or are speaking neutrally, then they is appropriate and has been for centuries not just this century.
It dates back to the 14th century to use they as a singular and is perfectly appropriate. Anyone getting a stick up their arse for using the English language properly, needs to be better educated.
Ian Blackford setting a hare running on GMS by being unclear about whether John Swinney, if FM, would stand for re-election in 2026.
If Swinney can't commit to standing again he'd be an instant lame duck... .. Committing to re-election in 2026 if FM also means committing to serving a full term to 2031, by when John Swinney would be 67 and have been an MSP for 32 years, 23 of them in government.
Yet he was meant to be winding down to retirement. Credible?
Nick Ferrari on LBC claims two Labour MPs are about to defect to Gorgeous's latest vehicle.
Nice way of purging the crazies before the next election where they will, presumably, lose their seats to a Starmerite.
I suspect the defectors might be from inner city Northern seats with a particular pro-Gaza ethnic focus. They may well retain their seats for Galloway.
The worst possible time to do so is in a general election when the normal people come out to vote. No doubt they will be hoping that Gaza remains salient by then, but given we're seemingly looking at a decent ceasefire shortly and the sands of time are passing (and will have passed further by GE time) I'd not hold out much hope for them.
As should be obvious from Saturday night’s news, if people are talking about it - it’s not going to happen
Thanks Stodge for your comments and yes it may be the Tories holding 1 seat while losing 2 in a few of the 3 seat wards up in the all out elections enables them to hold EFDC. I largely agree with your other predictions.
Though Labour should certainly be aiming to win Basildon, Gloucester and Harlow and also take control of Nuneaton and Redditch on Thursday if they are heading for a landslide. Those were all areas won by Blair in 1997
As far as I recall, the local elections in 1997 were only a few weeks after the general election. As a result the Conservative vote was even more depleted for the local elections. This year the locals are (?)several months before the GE. If most of these councils go labour on Friday, then Starmer really should be heading for a 1997 style landslide.
Labour won all the parliamentary seats for those areas in 1997 was my point ie under Blair Labour won the Harlow, Nuneaton, Gloucester and Redditch and Basildon parliamentary seats. New Labour had already taken control of all the district councils for those areas in the local elections in the years prior to 1997 (the 1997 locals were county not district elections and took place on the same day and the Tories actually made a handful of gains relative to 1993)
Thanks, Stodge, for a thoughtful post. And Good Morning to one and all. I used to live near Basildon, and indeed worked in the town for a while. There is, or was, some resentment in outer areas of the Council’s area, such as Wickford at being linked with the New Town. Especially true of Billericay, which at one time, long ago, was an important town when Basildon was just a few huts.
Basildon is also interesting because it's very swingy. In a good year the Tories win all seats, and in a bad year none (at least that used to be the case when the LDs were stronger in Billericay and Wickford than they are now).
I think it's also very telling that Reform could only find a single candidate in what is surely Brexit Central. UKIP won council seats here at their peak. 5% or less for Reform come the GE.
Billericay stayed Tory in 1997, just, of course while Labour won Basildon by a big majority.
So the fact one of the now 2 Basildon seats includes Billericay should help the Tories there
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
Thanks Stodge for your comments and yes it may be the Tories holding 1 seat while losing 2 in a few of the 3 seat wards up in the all out elections enables them to hold EFDC. I largely agree with your other predictions.
Though Labour should certainly be aiming to win Basildon, Gloucester and Harlow and also take control of Nuneaton and Redditch on Thursday if they are heading for a landslide. Those were all areas won by Blair in 1997
As far as I recall, the local elections in 1997 were only a few weeks after the general election. As a result the Conservative vote was even more depleted for the local elections. This year the locals are (?)several months before the GE. If most of these councils go labour on Friday, then Starmer really should be heading for a 1997 style landslide.
Labour won all the parliamentary seats for those areas in 1997 was my point ie under Blair Labour won the Harlow, Nuneaton, Gloucester and Redditch and Basildon parliamentary seats. New Labour had already taken control of all the district councils for those areas in the local elections in the years prior to 1997 (the 1997 locals were county not district elections and took place on the same day and the Tories actually made a handful of gains relative to 1993)
I wouldn't read anything into it if Labour fail to take Gloucester council. In Gloucester, like places such as Watford and Portsmouth, there is a lot of LD-at-local/Labour-at-GE split-ticket voting.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
Yep. Just an alternative to the longer "he or she".
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
It’s more gender unknown than gender neutral and isn’t an attribute of the person you’re referring to.
(A pedant writes: if a person is unknown then you don't know their attributes and so cannot attribute)
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Ian Blackford setting a hare running on GMS by being unclear about whether John Swinney, if FM, would stand for re-election in 2026.
If Swinney can't commit to standing again he'd be an instant lame duck... .. Committing to re-election in 2026 if FM also means committing to serving a full term to 2031, by when John Swinney would be 67 and have been an MSP for 32 years, 23 of them in government.
Yet he was meant to be winding down to retirement. Credible?
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
It’s more gender unknown than gender neutral and isn’t an attribute of the person you’re referring to.
It works in both ways. In fact in 3 ways since you can split the gender neutral use into 2 categories - singular personal and generic group.
Eg of the latter: Politicians get a lot of shit. They need to have the skin of a rhino.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
Some sort of temporary camera trap and sufficient enforcement action instead?
All too often innocent people are being made to suffer due to poorly thought through attempts to deal with a troublesome minority.
Thanks both for your comments. Keys or spring loaded gates don't fix it unfortunately, since the people who are blocked are often eg using a powechair or scooter, or do not have sufficient strength to use a stiff RADAR key.
The answer is culture change and appropriate policing - which has been done in some places for decades under the name Operation Endurance. National Guidlines ("Inclusive Mobility"/LTN 1/20) are that the requirement is bollards with a 1.5m air gap between, and a straight, flat approach each side.
Some places are backward, and can be quite abusive. I have a friend who uses a wheelchair and/or E-tricycle tandem, who was told by her Local Authority's legal team that she would be required to come to the barrier and demonstrate that she was physically incapable of lifting her tricycle through it.
One of my little actiivisms is to keep talking about the issue in public, and challenging barriers where I am able - but I have 300-400 already known to me around my town of 50k people. Including around some of our Green Flag parks.
If it's an issue of interest to you, @Flatlander , I'd encourage you to join a network such as the Wheels for Wellbeing Activists network *, where there is good material, template letters etc. There's quite a lot being done to challenge barriers - and Sustrans are heroes who are removing 300-400 a year from their walking/cycling network. But it's a long haul.
I normally work from the perspective of a disabled pedestrian, as that allows me to apply the laws used by the Ramblers against blocked Public Footpaths, as well as Equality Act 2010.
One big trend is to walkers, wheelers and cyclists recognising that we have the same issues, and joint local organisations appearing - such as Walk-Ride Greater Manchester.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
"The Prime Minister looked at their reflection in the window as the rain swept down. "How has it come to this" they thought, as they looked at the polls..."
That reads weird only because we instinctively know the gender of the Prime Minister so you'd expect to not use gender-neutral terminology.
If you were referring to an anonymous Cabinet Minister, or the media's favourite phrase "senior MP" so we don't know who it is, then they becomes appropriate again.
I read it more humourously, as a passage that works with every future and past Prime Minister, regardless of gender.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
Most of those people want Boris back though. They won't turn out for Rishi.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
Yep. Just an alternative to the longer "he or she".
I find 'they' very useful here, particularly if I am referring to someone I don't wish to identify. I did this recently when talking about a minister and didn't want to identify them out of courtesy. There was enough info present for the gender to then be a give away as to who they were and it wasn't relevant. 'They' worked perfectly. Also useful when you don't know the gender although I also use s/he.
I don't give two hoots what I am called (within reason) and don't know why anyone does, but if they do I am happy to comply out of courtesy. My only restriction is I won't kowtow. I don't call anyone Sir/Madam and always address people by their first name. If they are offended by my informality I consider that their problem for being a bit stuck up.
The Tories probably could have won the London mayoral election if they'd selected a better candidate. A bit of a missed opportunity. For instance, someone like Alan Sugar, if he still supports the Tories. (He probably doesn't).
Here's one of my more bizarre local anti-wheelchair barriers.
The backstory here is that that was installed sometime around 1972 (characteristic ironwork) when the area was developed (my dad was a town architect laying out the area), and in UK style becomes a part of the assumed, unnoticed and unchallenged local mental furniture. It's got a route round it for anyone agile or with a bike / scooter, so the only thing it *can* do is make life difficult for wheelchair and mobility scooter users. Try being a wheelchair user, and perhaps a pensioner, taking a manual wheelchair across grass.
But even the Local Highways authority will not be aware that it exists as none of them keep records, and is their responsibility, and if challenged there is likely to be a squealing from local councillors in unthinking defence of the status quo. So rather than simply removing the unlawful obstruction, there could be a correspondence taking months or years.
This one has excellent sight lines, so either needs just taking away, or to be replaced with something on the kerb line.
(Thank-you to everyone indulging this particular bee in my bonnet. I'll stop here whilst I'm ahead and the sun is out.)
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
The former seems a bit low risk for your portfolio.
On the latter, I seem to have a bit of space opening up on the fleet of go fast boats I keep down by the Channel. Perhaps we could do a load of charcuterie for you ?
The Tories probably could have won the London mayoral election if they'd selected a better candidate. A bit of a missed opportunity. For instance, someone like Alan Sugar, if he still supports the Tories. (He probably doesn't).
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
Yep. Just an alternative to the longer "he or she".
I find 'they' very useful here, particularly if I am referring to someone I don't wish to identify. I did this recently when talking about a minister and didn't want to identify them out of courtesy. There was enough info present for the gender to then be a give away as to who they were and it wasn't relevant. 'They' worked perfectly. Also useful when you don't know the gender although I also use s/he.
I don't give two hoots what I am called (within reason) and don't know why anyone does, but if they do I am happy to comply out of courtesy. My only restriction is I won't kowtow. I don't call anyone Sir/Madam and always address people by their first name. If they are offended by my informality I consider that their problem for being a bit stuck up.
What do you do if you don't know their name?
I can certainly see the use of pronouns for third person gender unknown. I have a problem with 'they' as singular. It sounds clunky and awful to my ears. Not just 'they', but then using 'are' to just refer to one person. No matter how earnestly its proponents cite the antecedents it just sounds wrong. 'He' was, I'm sure, once used to mean both 'third person male' and 'third person unknown'. But clearly I can see why that's not ideal either. 'It' clearly carries entirely the wrong implication. And new-fangled inventions like 'xe' just sound like the user is being a dick.
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
Some sort of temporary camera trap and sufficient enforcement action instead?
All too often innocent people are being made to suffer due to poorly thought through attempts to deal with a troublesome minority.
Thanks both for your comments. Keys or spring loaded gates don't fix it unfortunately, since the people who are blocked are often eg using a powechair or scooter, or do not have sufficient strength to use a stiff RADAR key.
The answer is culture change and appropriate policing - which has been done in some places for decades under the name Operation Endurance. National Guidlines ("Inclusive Mobility"/LTN 1/20) are that the requirement is bollards with a 1.5m air gap between, and a straight, flat approach each side.
Some places are backward, and can be quite abusive. I have a friend who uses a wheelchair and/or E-tricycle tandem, who was told by her Local Authority's legal team that she would be required to come to the barrier and demonstrate that she was physically incapable of lifting her tricycle through it.
One of my little actiivisms is to keep talking about the issue in public, and challenging barriers where I am able - but I have 300-400 already known to me around my town of 50k people. Including around some of our Green Flag parks.
If it's an issue of interest to you, @Flatlander , I'd encourage you to join a network such as the Wheels for Wellbeing Activists network *, where there is good material, template letters etc. There's quite a lot being done to challenge barriers - and Sustrans are heroes who are removing 300-400 a year from their walking/cycling network. But it's a long haul.
I normally work from the perspective of a disabled pedestrian, as that allows me to apply the laws used by the Ramblers against blocked Public Footpaths, as well as Equality Act 2010.
One big trend is to walkers, wheelers and cyclists recognising that we have the same issues, and joint local organisations appearing - such as Walk-Ride Greater Manchester.
I have a lot of sympathy, as a “now” wheelchair user who, long ago in his “able” days extended a shop premises in such a way as to render the extension area inaccessible to wheelchair users. Karma is indeed a bitch! I also now cannot get into my once-favourite pub!
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
Those RR mini nukes are still a bit big though for domestic use. There's a gap in the market for a full service household nuclear generation option, on the model of solar panels.
Subscribe for home nuclear. Up-front payment then a small monthly service contract.
Briefcase-sized reactor arrives and the installers will install it on the back wall or in the basement and wire it up to your mains supply. Excess power goes back into the grid with a generous feed-in tariff. Cooling water can be reused for your bath and showers. Every couple of months an engineer will come with a van to collect your radioactive waste and replenish the uranium.
And if you want to be even more green then consider home hydro. Engineers will come and install a micro-generator on your mains water supply. Worth considering if you're on fixed water rates rather than a meter.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
It’s more gender unknown than gender neutral and isn’t an attribute of the person you’re referring to.
(A pedant writes: if a person is unknown then you don't know their attributes and so cannot attribute)
"Who is the prime minister of Moldova, and do you know their gender ?"
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
The former seems a bit low risk for your portfolio.
On the latter, I seem to have a bit of space opening up on the fleet of go fast boats I keep down by the Channel. Perhaps we could do a load of charcuterie for you ?
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
Most of those people want Boris back though. They won't turn out for Rishi.
You mean “probably” won’t turn out for cross next to their Con candidate on the paper. You don’t know for certain. Did you turn out for Corbyn - or turn out for Labour?
You are at least conceding the absolute flipping obvious - the mood of the nation is not a 20 point Labour lead. The 20 point Labour lead is down to a right wing bloc that’s still as high as 38% that voted Con at every election since brexit if not long before for many of the voters, who are currently nearly neatly split between two right wing parties. And when it comes to FPTP mind up time only one of those parties can win the election, the other is projected to not even win a seat?
Why do you think I’m spoofing you? Can’t you see this unique situation with no comparison in history, is perfectly primed for a dramatic late denouement that stands polling on its head?
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
The former seems a bit low risk for your portfolio.
On the latter, I seem to have a bit of space opening up on the fleet of go fast boats I keep down by the Channel. Perhaps we could do a load of charcuterie for you ?
Are you not already filling them up with potted plants since the new rules came in today?
The Tories probably could have won the London mayoral election if they'd selected a better candidate. A bit of a missed opportunity. For instance, someone like Alan Sugar, if he still supports the Tories. (He probably doesn't).
If you are right, and if Khan survives and Starmer becomes PM, then a half-decent Tory candidate would presumably have a fantastic chance of winning in 2028.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
Yep. Just an alternative to the longer "he or she".
I find 'they' very useful here, particularly if I am referring to someone I don't wish to identify. I did this recently when talking about a minister and didn't want to identify them out of courtesy. There was enough info present for the gender to then be a give away as to who they were and it wasn't relevant. 'They' worked perfectly. Also useful when you don't know the gender although I also use s/he.
I don't give two hoots what I am called (within reason) and don't know why anyone does, but if they do I am happy to comply out of courtesy. My only restriction is I won't kowtow. I don't call anyone Sir/Madam and always address people by their first name. If they are offended by my informality I consider that their problem for being a bit stuck up.
What do you do if you don't know their name?
I can certainly see the use of pronouns for third person gender unknown. I have a problem with 'they' as singular. It sounds clunky and awful to my ears. Not just 'they', but then using 'are' to just refer to one person. No matter how earnestly its proponents cite the antecedents it just sounds wrong. 'He' was, I'm sure, once used to mean both 'third person male' and 'third person unknown'. But clearly I can see why that's not ideal either. 'It' clearly carries entirely the wrong implication. And new-fangled inventions like 'xe' just sound like the user is being a dick.
Good question. I can't recall it happening. I go to the bother of finding out, which with the internet is usually pretty easy. I consider it has a better impact addressing someone by their name rather than their job title. Obviously I address a letter to the full name, but then say 'Dear John/Jill'.
The Tories probably could have won the London mayoral election if they'd selected a better candidate. A bit of a missed opportunity. For instance, someone like Alan Sugar, if he still supports the Tories. (He probably doesn't).
Lord Sugar sits as an independent in the Lords, since leaving Labour.
If the LibDems had persuaded Floella Benjamin to stand, she'd've won!
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
Most of those people want Boris back though. They won't turn out for Rishi.
You mean “probably” won’t turn out for cross next to their Con candidate on the paper. You don’t know for certain. Did you turn out for Corbyn - or turn out for Labour?
You are at least conceding the absolute flipping obvious - the mood of the nation is not a 20 point Labour lead. The 20 point Labour lead is down to a right wing bloc that’s still as high as 38% that voted Con at every election since brexit if not long before for many of the voters, who are currently nearly neatly split between two right wing parties. And when it comes to FPTP mind up time only one of those parties can win the election, the other is projected to not even win a seat?
Why do you think I’m spoofing you? Can’t you see this unique situation with no comparison in history, is perfectly primed for a dramatic late denouement that stands polling on its head?
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
Why did they want to install this?
It will be an attempt to stop antisocial motorbikes / quad bikes.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
It's flat out illegal, and trivially easy to work out that it is though. So the council is paying once for the barriers, twice for the removal and maybe thrice for potential compensation, not to forget four times for a brief/silk or w/e.
Is it the council or the Woodland Trust which is responsible, please?
The Council in this case most likely. Normally it would be the Local Highways Authority (LHA) in England and Wales, which is the London Borough, or the County or Unitary City Council.
One strange thing is that the best recent infrastructure eg along former railway lines, or as part of developments, never seems to get designated as Public Rights of Way (ie footpaths, bridleways etc), which makes it difficult to hold the LHA to account under PROW (Highways Act 1980) law. And action under the Equality Act can only be taken by the individual discriminated against, which often lands it on poorer people with lower psychological resilience who will struggle to stump up a £400 Court Fee.
It's strange - near me I have a full set of pedestrian walkways with underpasses built around a motorway junction in 1967-8 which are not dedicated as PROWs. Which the local conservative MP wanting a bigger roundabout described in Parliament as essentially a complication that is in his way.
On this one I am jealous of the legal situation in Scotland.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
Most of those people want Boris back though. They won't turn out for Rishi.
You mean “probably” won’t turn out for cross next to their Con candidate on the paper. You don’t know for certain. Did you turn out for Corbyn - or turn out for Labour?
You are at least conceding the absolute flipping obvious - the mood of the nation is not a 20 point Labour lead. The 20 point Labour lead is down to a right wing bloc that’s still as high as 38% that voted Con at every election since brexit if not long before for many of the voters, who are currently nearly neatly split between two right wing parties. And when it comes to FPTP mind up time only one of those parties can win the election, the other is projected to not even win a seat?
Why do you think I’m spoofing you? Can’t you see this unique situation with no comparison in history, is perfectly primed for a dramatic late denouement that stands polling on its head?
You undermine your reasonable basic argument by going reductio ad absurdum. If we're talking blocs we need to talk at the very least Green, and some of the increasingly fungible Lib Dem vote share. And that all adds up to 60ish percent on the left of centre.
I do think the Reform vote will melt away starting at this week's elections, but a combination of some melting of the Green (not this week but at the general) and efficient tactical voting between Lib Dems and Labour will offset much of that.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
It’s more gender unknown than gender neutral and isn’t an attribute of the person you’re referring to.
(A pedant writes: if a person is unknown then you don't know their attributes and so cannot attribute)
My point was that in Rumsfeldian terms, the gender of an unknown person is a known unknown, but once they become known to you, you stop using the neutral term.
Nigel's example wouldn't be answered with 'they':
- Who is the prime minister of Moldova, and do you know their gender ? - They are called Dorin Recean and they are male.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
Yep. Just an alternative to the longer "he or she".
I find 'they' very useful here, particularly if I am referring to someone I don't wish to identify. I did this recently when talking about a minister and didn't want to identify them out of courtesy. There was enough info present for the gender to then be a give away as to who they were and it wasn't relevant. 'They' worked perfectly. Also useful when you don't know the gender although I also use s/he.
I don't give two hoots what I am called (within reason) and don't know why anyone does, but if they do I am happy to comply out of courtesy. My only restriction is I won't kowtow. I don't call anyone Sir/Madam and always address people by their first name. If they are offended by my informality I consider that their problem for being a bit stuck up.
What do you do if you don't know their name?
I can certainly see the use of pronouns for third person gender unknown. I have a problem with 'they' as singular. It sounds clunky and awful to my ears. Not just 'they', but then using 'are' to just refer to one person. No matter how earnestly its proponents cite the antecedents it just sounds wrong. 'He' was, I'm sure, once used to mean both 'third person male' and 'third person unknown'. But clearly I can see why that's not ideal either. 'It' clearly carries entirely the wrong implication. And new-fangled inventions like 'xe' just sound like the user is being a dick.
Interesting.
I sometimes find myself using "they" as a singular even when I do know the gender of the person I'm talking about and it feels perfectly natural to me, and it happens without me thinking about it. I never chose to do this, I just happen to use he/they/{name} or she/they/{name} interchangeably.
Thinking about it, there are probably some sentence constructions where I use they more often than he/she, where it feels more comfortable to say "they were" instead of "he/she was" for example.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
You can use the gender-neutral third-party singular pronoun: "they"
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
Yep. Just an alternative to the longer "he or she".
I find 'they' very useful here, particularly if I am referring to someone I don't wish to identify. I did this recently when talking about a minister and didn't want to identify them out of courtesy. There was enough info present for the gender to then be a give away as to who they were and it wasn't relevant. 'They' worked perfectly. Also useful when you don't know the gender although I also use s/he.
I don't give two hoots what I am called (within reason) and don't know why anyone does, but if they do I am happy to comply out of courtesy. My only restriction is I won't kowtow. I don't call anyone Sir/Madam and always address people by their first name. If they are offended by my informality I consider that their problem for being a bit stuck up.
What do you do if you don't know their name?
I can certainly see the use of pronouns for third person gender unknown. I have a problem with 'they' as singular. It sounds clunky and awful to my ears. Not just 'they', but then using 'are' to just refer to one person. No matter how earnestly its proponents cite the antecedents it just sounds wrong. 'He' was, I'm sure, once used to mean both 'third person male' and 'third person unknown'. But clearly I can see why that's not ideal either. 'It' clearly carries entirely the wrong implication. And new-fangled inventions like 'xe' just sound like the user is being a dick.
Clearly, from the opening sentence of that post, I'm not THAT uncomfortable with using 'they' with a singular verb form!
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
Those RR mini nukes are still a bit big though for domestic use. There's a gap in the market for a full service household nuclear generation option, on the model of solar panels.
Subscribe for home nuclear. Up-front payment then a small monthly service contract.
Briefcase-sized reactor arrives and the installers will install it on the back wall or in the basement and wire it up to your mains supply. Excess power goes back into the grid with a generous feed-in tariff. Cooling water can be reused for your bath and showers. Every couple of months an engineer will come with a van to collect your radioactive waste and replenish the uranium.
And if you want to be even more green then consider home hydro. Engineers will come and install a micro-generator on your mains water supply. Worth considering if you're on fixed water rates rather than a meter.
The portable nuclear generators in the Voyager Space probes have clocked up nearly 47 years of service with zero maintenance. You wouldn't even need an engineer visit.
Here's one of my more bizarre local anti-wheelchair barriers.
The backstory here is that that was installed sometime around 1972 (characteristic ironwork) when the area was developed (my dad was a town architect laying out the area), and in UK style becomes a part of the assumed, unnoticed and unchallenged local mental furniture. It's got a route round it for anyone agile or with a bike / scooter, so the only thing it *can* do is make life difficult for wheelchair and mobility scooter users. Try being a wheelchair user, and perhaps a pensioner, taking a manual wheelchair across grass.
But even the Local Highways authority will not be aware that it exists as none of them keep records, and is their responsibility, and if challenged there is likely to be a squealing from local councillors in unthinking defence of the status quo. So rather than simply removing the unlawful obstruction, there could be a correspondence taking months or years.
This one has excellent sight lines, so either needs just taking away, or to be replaced with something on the kerb line.
(Thank-you to everyone indulging this particular bee in my bonnet. I'll stop here whilst I'm ahead and the sun is out.)
Really admire your work on this. That facebook post is a gentle reminder of just how inconsiderate some people can be to people who wheel about, and why "red tape" is such a useful guard against such arseholes.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I am sure you are right and as such have mortgaged my house for a 33/1 bet on a Conservative majority.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Would you be interested in investing in a startup? Novel electric vehicle batteries utilising block chain, associated with New Physics, Fusion and Space launch?
Just this morning I invested the remainder of my pile on Rolls Royce mini nuclear power generation and European delicatessen importation.
Those RR mini nukes are still a bit big though for domestic use. There's a gap in the market for a full service household nuclear generation option, on the model of solar panels.
Subscribe for home nuclear. Up-front payment then a small monthly service contract.
Briefcase-sized reactor arrives and the installers will install it on the back wall or in the basement and wire it up to your mains supply. Excess power goes back into the grid with a generous feed-in tariff. Cooling water can be reused for your bath and showers. Every couple of months an engineer will come with a van to collect your radioactive waste and replenish the uranium.
And if you want to be even more green then consider home hydro. Engineers will come and install a micro-generator on your mains water supply. Worth considering if you're on fixed water rates rather than a meter.
The portable nuclear generators in the Voyager Space probes have clocked up nearly 47 years of service with zero maintenance. You wouldn't even need an engineer visit.
Four and a half kilos of plutonium, to generate 150 watts of electricity, seems a tad inefficient. Even if you could perhaps get a bit of hot water out of the setup.
The German far-right AfD struggling with multiple challenges, though still at 16%. Overall less of the far-right surge across Europe than some have been predicting, but the pattern varies a lot by country.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Tories closing the gap to 5 points is not misreading the mood of a Nation, all they need to do is attract back out for them on election day a block of rightwing brexiteer voters they have had voting for them at the last General Elections. Simples.
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
I salute your indefatigiblity over the chances of Tory recovery if not agreeing with them. However it strikes me that a lot of negativity from the right on here and elsewhere about the Tories is down to the stink of likely defeat rather than any great point of principle. A few 30 pointers for the Tories and I suspect there'd be a load of Rishi-sceptic righties quietly changing their position.
Polls don’t predict. They just give a snapshot. Have a think about what might move the polls.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
There's nothing that'll give the 72.341% of the electorate (MOE 0.045%) who are Alf Garnetts sexual excitement more than seeing a group of non-whites marched to an aeroplane, praying on the tarmac, maybe stripping to their underwear in protest, against the backdrop of a BBC man reporting that whining lawyers are saying something about the law and human rights. Immigration is the nasty party's issue.
Shitgov and Arsehole-sos polls prove this. They found that 92% of the electorate swear blind that Rwanda is a safe place and that anyone who says otherwise might as well be a fan of mixed marriages.
Comments
Your conclusion seems quite reasonable: a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.
Can you say any more about these various Independents? Who are they?
Around here (and I mean "Independents", not "Ashfield Independents" who are a full blown political party) they tend to believe they are supporting their local community, but have an overdone sense of their personal beliefs being what everybody else wants, and pay little attention to some of their (more inconvenient) legal responsibilities.
For an example of the above, here is an illegal (under Equality Act 2010) anti-wheelchair / anti-mobility aid barrier blocking a designated footpath / cycleway at the Outwood Viaduct in Greater Manchester, installed this spring, and blocking access to a Woodland Trust reserve. The Radcliffe First group (Salford Area) Councillors are celebrating £2500 of Council money being spent on it, with the intention to install more.
It will be coming out in due course, because they are subject to legal action and up to £10k compensation each time someone is discriminated against, but that does not sink in.
The Metropolitan Police says a 36-year-old man wielding a sword has been arrested after an attack on members of the public and two police officers near an east London Tube station. Officers said they are not looking for more suspects and the attack "does not appear to be terror related".
https://news.sky.com/story/hainault-latest-stabbings-reported-as-man-with-sword-attacks-people-near-tube-station-13126112
Hainault is in the Havering & Redbridge constituency for the London Assembly and Mayoral elections in two days' time, and in Wes Streeting's Ilford North parliamentary constituency.
Trump's video claims Israel, the Vatican, the Queen, Canada, Russia, and others have "submitted"
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/trump-posted-a-qanon-video-boasting-of-nations-and-leaders-submitting-to-him
One of our Chief Constables had a strange obsession with recording non-criminal "Hate Incidents", for a reason I am still baffled by. It was in my mind akin to the pointless police activity of sending out notes saying "you have not committed a chargeable offence but we have had a (my note: often frivolous) complaint and Big Brother is Watching You" - which is a current petty-authoritarian habit. *
It did not help that it was around the same time as our community PCSOs were reduced to almost nothing,
* I pointed out one of these sent recently to a fellow-activist who reports ASBO parking and dangerous driving in Ealing, and trying to embarrass the Council into doing something for child safety on a rat-run residential road.
Without resorting to keys, it is a hard problem to solve. How do you maintain disabled access but stop idiots razzing about where they shouldn't?
I have the same problem with my Dad round here - I have to deconstruct his scooter, get him to walk the 5 yards through the barrier, carry it over in parts, then reconstruct it on the other side. Not an option for most and a total pain.
I carried on to Carrión with out stopping, I've stopped for caffe and cash in Carrión, then I'll carry on up the Camino
All too often innocent people are being made to suffer due to poorly thought through attempts to deal with a troublesome minority.
(It is not lawful to prevent access for lawful users to address a policing problem, but it looks like a dramatic, effective intervention to some locals.)
Facebook thread here:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/www.radcliffefirst.co.uk/posts/1856031514911581/
I wouldn't describe the Record and Hutcheon as friends of any part of the SNP, progressives or conservatives.
https://x.com/WoodsyNeverWent/status/1785227284837810317
Some Muslims and Roman Catholics can also get away with it if not too hardline in their adherance to Imam or Vatican doctrine eg Yousaf and Biden. For evangelicals however often their faith defines their life see Forbes or Farron or Kruger and so it leads their political life too (Pentecostal Morrison in Australia did manage it for one win but largely by focusing on the economy, same with hardline Catholic Abbott by focusing on immigration)
Or perhaps I should not hold my breath.
There have been campaigns to confiscate any illegally ridden motorbikes but these tended to concentrate on popular areas and only ever last for a couple of weeks.
The main problem seems to be that these bikes are too cheap...
I am bemused how many people struggle with the concept of "they" as singular, it has always been used and dates back to the 14th Century. I was taught in primary school that "they" was a third party singular in the 1980s, long before modern gender debates were happening.
It is perfectly professional language to be using and is my preferred pronoun to use when being professional and has nothing to do with gender debates.
There is a candidate coming for an interview later today, they should arrive at 11am.
I used to live near Basildon, and indeed worked in the town for a while. There is, or was, some resentment in outer areas of the Council’s area, such as Wickford at being linked with the New Town. Especially true of Billericay, which at one time, long ago, was an important town when Basildon was just a few huts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-london-68926446
First, the NHS recognises right to single sex berthing.
Then Keir Starmer tells a ferociously focused Susannah Reid that he only disagreed with Duffield's "only women have a cervix", in order to avoid "toxicity".
Wow
https://x.com/QcWynter/status/1785217147288912254
A couple of seats to parachute candidates into, too?
If you were referring to an anonymous Cabinet Minister, or the media's favourite phrase "senior MP" so we don't know who it is, then they becomes appropriate again.
I think it's also very telling that Reform could only find a single candidate in what is surely Brexit Central. UKIP won council seats here at their peak. 5% or less for Reform come the GE.
The Facebook thread where they explain why they did it:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/www.radcliffefirst.co.uk/posts/1856031514911581/
You'll see overgrown tight chicanes at the side (which are also unlawful as inaccessible). This (below) is what it looked like in 2007 (from Wikipedia), with perhaps £30-50k spent on unnecessary ironwork for no reason whatsoever - that's 100 posts and 200m of fence to split 'lanes'.
It's a weird culture here where authorities spend money on this kind of cage, and police or PCSOs are defunded, with no thought to who is locked out, and some locals like it because they believe it works. And when a problem that did not exist does not appear, they will continue to believe the folk myth, and seem willing to go to the gallows to defend it. Which local councillors, and sometimes police, will support.
The roots are in lack of regard for the public realm, and decades of police / planners opposing convenient routes by foot, cycle or mobility aid, for "security" at Planning Stage.
You can only use he/she on the other hand based on the other person's attributes, ie if they are male or female. If you don't know or are speaking neutrally, then they is appropriate and has been for centuries not just this century.
It dates back to the 14th century to use they as a singular and is perfectly appropriate. Anyone getting a stick up their arse for using the English language properly, needs to be better educated.
Ian Blackford setting a hare running on GMS by being unclear about whether John Swinney, if FM, would stand for re-election in 2026.
If Swinney can't commit to standing again he'd be an instant lame duck...
..
Committing to re-election in 2026 if FM also means committing to serving a full term to 2031, by when John Swinney would be 67 and have been an MSP for 32 years, 23 of them in government.
Yet he was meant to be winding down to retirement. Credible?
https://x.com/HTScotPol/status/1785210954919067762
So the fact one of the now 2 Basildon seats includes Billericay should help the Tories there
Why do you keep misreading the polls into thinking Labour have attracted so many votes away from Conservatives, it’s given them a 20 point lead? That’s not what the polling situation is, thats not the 20 point lead, that’s not the mood of the Nation.
You evidence is scant, but I am relying on your instincts to make me very wealthy.
Eg of the latter: Politicians get a lot of shit. They need to have the skin of a rhino.
The answer is culture change and appropriate policing - which has been done in some places for decades under the name Operation Endurance. National Guidlines ("Inclusive Mobility"/LTN 1/20) are that the requirement is bollards with a 1.5m air gap between, and a straight, flat approach each side.
Some places are backward, and can be quite abusive. I have a friend who uses a wheelchair and/or E-tricycle tandem, who was told by her Local Authority's legal team that she would be required to come to the barrier and demonstrate that she was physically incapable of lifting her tricycle through it.
One of my little actiivisms is to keep talking about the issue in public, and challenging barriers where I am able - but I have 300-400 already known to me around my town of 50k people. Including around some of our Green Flag parks.
If it's an issue of interest to you, @Flatlander , I'd encourage you to join a network such as the Wheels for Wellbeing Activists network *, where there is good material, template letters etc. There's quite a lot being done to challenge barriers - and Sustrans are heroes who are removing 300-400 a year from their walking/cycling network. But it's a long haul.
I normally work from the perspective of a disabled pedestrian, as that allows me to apply the laws used by the Ramblers against blocked Public Footpaths, as well as Equality Act 2010.
One big trend is to walkers, wheelers and cyclists recognising that we have the same issues, and joint local organisations appearing - such as Walk-Ride Greater Manchester.
* https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/our-campaigns/dcan-the-disabled-cycling-activist-network/
I don't give two hoots what I am called (within reason) and don't know why anyone does, but if they do I am happy to comply out of courtesy. My only restriction is I won't kowtow. I don't call anyone Sir/Madam and always address people by their first name. If they are offended by my informality I consider that their problem for being a bit stuck up.
The backstory here is that that was installed sometime around 1972 (characteristic ironwork) when the area was developed (my dad was a town architect laying out the area), and in UK style becomes a part of the assumed, unnoticed and unchallenged local mental furniture. It's got a route round it for anyone agile or with a bike / scooter, so the only thing it *can* do is make life difficult for wheelchair and mobility scooter users. Try being a wheelchair user, and perhaps a pensioner, taking a manual wheelchair across grass.
But even the Local Highways authority will not be aware that it exists as none of them keep records, and is their responsibility, and if challenged there is likely to be a squealing from local councillors in unthinking defence of the status quo. So rather than simply removing the unlawful obstruction, there could be a correspondence taking months or years.
This one has excellent sight lines, so either needs just taking away, or to be replaced with something on the kerb line.
(Thank-you to everyone indulging this particular bee in my bonnet. I'll stop here whilst I'm ahead and the sun is out.)
On the latter, I seem to have a bit of space opening up on the fleet of go fast boats I keep down by the Channel. Perhaps we could do a load of charcuterie for you ?
I can certainly see the use of pronouns for third person gender unknown.
I have a problem with 'they' as singular. It sounds clunky and awful to my ears. Not just 'they', but then using 'are' to just refer to one person. No matter how earnestly its proponents cite the antecedents it just sounds wrong.
'He' was, I'm sure, once used to mean both 'third person male' and 'third person unknown'. But clearly I can see why that's not ideal either.
'It' clearly carries entirely the wrong implication.
And new-fangled inventions like 'xe' just sound like the user is being a dick.
I also now cannot get into my once-favourite pub!
Subscribe for home nuclear. Up-front payment then a small monthly service contract.
Briefcase-sized reactor arrives and the installers will install it on the back wall or in the basement and wire it up to your mains supply. Excess power goes back into the grid with a generous feed-in tariff. Cooling water can be reused for your bath and showers. Every couple of months an engineer will come with a van to collect your radioactive waste and replenish the uranium.
And if you want to be even more green then consider home hydro. Engineers will come and install a micro-generator on your mains water supply. Worth considering if you're on fixed water rates rather than a meter.
https://www.building.co.uk/news/rolls-royce-pulls-plug-on-200m-plans-for-small-modular-reactor-factory/5129163.article
and
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72pz0vjd57o.amp
You are at least conceding the absolute flipping obvious - the mood of the nation is not a 20 point Labour lead. The 20 point Labour lead is down to a right wing bloc that’s still as high as 38% that voted Con at every election since brexit if not long before for many of the voters, who are currently nearly neatly split between two right wing parties. And when it comes to FPTP mind up time only one of those parties can win the election, the other is projected to not even win a seat?
Why do you think I’m spoofing you? Can’t you see this unique situation with no comparison in history, is perfectly primed for a dramatic late denouement that stands polling on its head?
If the LibDems had persuaded Floella Benjamin to stand, she'd've won!
One strange thing is that the best recent infrastructure eg along former railway lines, or as part of developments, never seems to get designated as Public Rights of Way (ie footpaths, bridleways etc), which makes it difficult to hold the LHA to account under PROW (Highways Act 1980) law. And action under the Equality Act can only be taken by the individual discriminated against, which often lands it on poorer people with lower psychological resilience who will struggle to stump up a £400 Court Fee.
It's strange - near me I have a full set of pedestrian walkways with underpasses built around a motorway junction in 1967-8 which are not dedicated as PROWs. Which the local conservative MP wanting a bigger roundabout described in Parliament as essentially a complication that is in his way.
On this one I am jealous of the legal situation in Scotland.
I do think the Reform vote will melt away starting at this week's elections, but a combination of some melting of the Green (not this week but at the general) and efficient tactical voting between Lib Dems and Labour will offset much of that.
Nigel's example wouldn't be answered with 'they':
- Who is the prime minister of Moldova, and do you know their gender ?
- They are called Dorin Recean and they are male.
I sometimes find myself using "they" as a singular even when I do know the gender of the person I'm talking about and it feels perfectly natural to me, and it happens without me thinking about it. I never chose to do this, I just happen to use he/they/{name} or she/they/{name} interchangeably.
Thinking about it, there are probably some sentence constructions where I use they more often than he/she, where it feels more comfortable to say "they were" instead of "he/she was" for example.
When inflation is Under 2%, and BoE announce rat cut, the economy is out of recession because growth in 2024 is strong. And Rwanda flights are in the air, you reckon the polls won’t move at all?
And I know why you get it wrong. Psychologically if you are left or centre left, this magic dust sprinkled on you won’t work at all, so you can’t “imagine” a world how it would work on anyone. But if you were right or centre right getting this magic dust…
And remember Beergate month worked. It tightened the polls to just a 4% lead polling day.
Even if you could perhaps get a bit of hot water out of the setup.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/german-spd-and-far-right-afd-battle-for-second-place-eu-election-projection/?utm_source=Euractiv&utm_campaign=4106a9551c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_03_26_02_03_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-e05cd8f31e-[LIST_EMAIL_ID]
The German far-right AfD struggling with multiple challenges, though still at 16%. Overall less of the far-right surge across Europe than some have been predicting, but the pattern varies a lot by country.
Shitgov and Arsehole-sos polls prove this. They found that 92% of the electorate swear blind that Rwanda is a safe place and that anyone who says otherwise might as well be a fan of mixed marriages.