@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
"describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com"
Quasi-consensual? Semi-consummated? Banned in thirteen states?
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
It would be trivially easy for AI to create a new PB character with some history and personality, and a tiny modicum of wit and imagination. That would instantly make them more interesting to read than @Scott_xP and @IanB2, and with less zoophilia, one hopes
Given that the latest chatbots can also remember conversations over extended periods, they would also develop freindships and feuds. This is surely coming. Ask Claude 3 about "Dead Internet Theory"
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
"describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com"
Quasi-consensual? Semi-consummated? Banned in thirteen states?
You are creating false monsters. Shadows if you like.
I think AI is going to be fantastic but as with so many things you are getting carried away.
And that's why we love you.
That's very kind of you, I have a certain fondness for you too, you ridiculous atheist
However I am far from convinced that AI is necessarily going to be "fantastic". It will be fantastically interesting, but that is a very different thing
AI will be like the invention of fire, agriculture, industry, the internet, smartphones and nukes, all at once
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
If you want to destroy AI, ask it to win an argument with Barty or HYFUD, or to ask it to convince TUD that the SNP are occasionally wrong.
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
"describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com"
Quasi-consensual? Semi-consummated? Banned in thirteen states?
You are creating false monsters. Shadows if you like.
I think AI is going to be fantastic but as with so many things you are getting carried away.
And that's why we love you.
That's very kind of you, I have a certain fondness for you too, you ridiculous atheist
However I am far from convinced that AI is necessarily going to be "fantastic". It will be fantastically interesting, but that is a very different thing
AI will be like the invention of fire, agriculture, industry, the internet, smartphones and nukes, all at once
Yes it will be transformative I certainly agree with that. Praise be to ****.
You are creating false monsters. Shadows if you like.
I think AI is going to be fantastic but as with so many things you are getting carried away.
And that's why we love you.
That's very kind of you, I have a certain fondness for you too, you ridiculous atheist
However I am far from convinced that AI is necessarily going to be "fantastic". It will be fantastically interesting, but that is a very different thing
AI will be like the invention of fire, agriculture, industry, the internet, smartphones and nukes, all at once
Yes it will be transformative I certainly agree with that. Praise be to ****.
You should try ayahuasca. Seriously. I think you'd love it, and you'd benefit from it
You are creating false monsters. Shadows if you like.
I think AI is going to be fantastic but as with so many things you are getting carried away.
And that's why we love you.
That's very kind of you, I have a certain fondness for you too, you ridiculous atheist
However I am far from convinced that AI is necessarily going to be "fantastic". It will be fantastically interesting, but that is a very different thing
AI will be like the invention of fire, agriculture, industry, the internet, smartphones and nukes, all at once
Yes it will be transformative I certainly agree with that. Praise be to ****.
You should try ayahuasca. Seriously. I think you'd love it, and you'd benefit from it
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
If you want to destroy AI, ask it to win an argument with Barty or HYFUD, or to ask it to convince TUD that the SNP are occasionally wrong.
Better still, ask it to do both Barty and HYUFD arguing to a conclusion. That should tie it up for a decade at least.
The only true sporting legend is Max Woosnam. My favourite is him beating Charlie Chaplin at Table Tennis playing with a butter knife.
“ Among his achievements were winning an Olympic gold and silver in tennis at the 1920 Summer Olympics,[6] winning the doubles at Wimbledon, compiling a 147 break in snooker, making a century at Lord's Cricket Ground, captaining the British Davis Cup team, captaining Manchester City F.C. finishing ultimately runners-up for the Football League Championship in 1920–21, and captaining the England national football team.[7] He also played football for Cambridge Town.”
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
It would be trivially easy for AI to create a new PB character with some history and personality, and a tiny modicum of wit and imagination. That would instantly make them more interesting to read than @Scott_xP and @IanB2, and with less zoophilia, one hopes
Given that the latest chatbots can also remember conversations over extended periods, they would also develop freindships and feuds. This is surely coming. Ask Claude 3 about "Dead Internet Theory"
Bringing us back to a perennial PB topic, I'm still holding out for the moment when someone feeds the entire history of the Daily Mail's comments forum into an ML sentiment analysis system, and commissions a fleet of drones to act on the results. Call it the Millennial's Basilisk...
You are creating false monsters. Shadows if you like.
I think AI is going to be fantastic but as with so many things you are getting carried away.
And that's why we love you.
That's very kind of you, I have a certain fondness for you too, you ridiculous atheist
However I am far from convinced that AI is necessarily going to be "fantastic". It will be fantastically interesting, but that is a very different thing
AI will be like the invention of fire, agriculture, industry, the internet, smartphones and nukes, all at once
Yes it will be transformative I certainly agree with that. Praise be to ****.
You should try ayahuasca. Seriously. I think you'd love it, and you'd benefit from it
It's a long way to travel.
You can do it in England easily, good ayahuasqueros come to the UK/EU all the time, to do rituals with really good juice
It is an incredible drug, everyone should try it at least once, it is also seriously therapeutic (and rather scary)
Needs to be approached with respect and you need to do it with reliable experienced people. I know this world quite well now: DM me if you are sincerely interested
The only true sporting legend is Max Woosnam. My favourite is him beating Charlie Chaplin at Table Tennis playing with a butter knife.
“ Among his achievements were winning an Olympic gold and silver in tennis at the 1920 Summer Olympics,[6] winning the doubles at Wimbledon, compiling a 147 break in snooker, making a century at Lord's Cricket Ground, captaining the British Davis Cup team, captaining Manchester City F.C. finishing ultimately runners-up for the Football League Championship in 1920–21, and captaining the England national football team.[7] He also played football for Cambridge Town.”
That would mean Parliament would have to be dissolved by 5 September.
But the Summer Recess has already been announced as 24 July to 10 September.
So that would mean no Parliamentary wash-up - which surely would never happen as all Bills in progress would be lost.
Unless Parliament was recalled just before the end of August - which also seems very unlikely given everyone would be on holiday.
And that's all before considering it would mean no Autumn Statement.
@MaxPB's argument for a November election after a pre-election budget was the most convincing. They can try to run a campaign based on warning people against waking up after Christmas having to foot the bill for a Labour government.
You are creating false monsters. Shadows if you like.
I think AI is going to be fantastic but as with so many things you are getting carried away.
And that's why we love you.
That's very kind of you, I have a certain fondness for you too, you ridiculous atheist
However I am far from convinced that AI is necessarily going to be "fantastic". It will be fantastically interesting, but that is a very different thing
AI will be like the invention of fire, agriculture, industry, the internet, smartphones and nukes, all at once
Yes it will be transformative I certainly agree with that. Praise be to ****.
You should try ayahuasca. Seriously. I think you'd love it, and you'd benefit from it
It's a long way to travel.
You can do it in the UK too, but unfortunately it's a field beset with grifters.
When dealing with them, just remember that:
cacao is just hot chocolate
laughter yoga involves neither real laughter nor real yoga
sexological bodywork is just sex work with less soap
...and you'll avoid the worst of the hippy scammers involved.
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
If you want to destroy AI, ask it to win an argument with Barty or HYFUD, or to ask it to convince TUD that the SNP are occasionally wrong.
Or persuade you that they're occasionally right. Since like most of the PB herd you mention/moan about the SNP more than I praise them, AI might have a bit more material to work with in your case.
You are creating false monsters. Shadows if you like.
I think AI is going to be fantastic but as with so many things you are getting carried away.
And that's why we love you.
That's very kind of you, I have a certain fondness for you too, you ridiculous atheist
However I am far from convinced that AI is necessarily going to be "fantastic". It will be fantastically interesting, but that is a very different thing
AI will be like the invention of fire, agriculture, industry, the internet, smartphones and nukes, all at once
Yes it will be transformative I certainly agree with that. Praise be to ****.
You should try ayahuasca. Seriously. I think you'd love it, and you'd benefit from it
It's a long way to travel.
You can do it in the UK too, but unfortunately it's a field beset with grifters.
When dealing with them, just remember that:
cacao is just hot chocolate
laughter yoga involves neither real laughter nor real yoga
sexological bodywork is just sex work with less soap
...and you'll avoid the worst of the hippy scammers involved.
Yes, there are scammers, frauds and cowboys, and this is not something where you should take risks, ayahuasca is risky enough in itself (tho most people are fine).
I do know some good people and I know how to reach them
This is why I'm glad I'm going to die before my consciousness can be reproduced artificially with self-awareness. Any virtual environment can be turned into hell, and given the gehennas we create worldwide IRL I assume they will. No artificial intelligence will ever be as bad as we have been and will be again,
The only true sporting legend is Max Woosnam. My favourite is him beating Charlie Chaplin at Table Tennis playing with a butter knife.
“ Among his achievements were winning an Olympic gold and silver in tennis at the 1920 Summer Olympics,[6] winning the doubles at Wimbledon, compiling a 147 break in snooker, making a century at Lord's Cricket Ground, captaining the British Davis Cup team, captaining Manchester City F.C. finishing ultimately runners-up for the Football League Championship in 1920–21, and captaining the England national football team.[7] He also played football for Cambridge Town.”
This is why I'm glad I'm going to die before my consciousness can be reproduced artificially with self-awareness. Any virtual environment can be turned into hell, and given the gehennas we create worldwide IRL I assume they will. No artificial intelligence will ever be as bad as we have been and will be again,
Oh you, clinging on to that last bit of hope.
:: ruffles your hair and gives you a shiny farthing ::
@rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.
Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/
The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.
Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
If you want to destroy AI, ask it to win an argument with Barty or HYFUD, or to ask it to convince TUD that the SNP are occasionally wrong.
Actual intelligence can't do that. Indeed, intelligence is very much a disadvantage. So I hardly think this is a fair thing to ask the artificial kind to attempt.
Just happened to flip on TV, and one of the El Cheapo broadcast movie channels is re-running "The Longest Day".
AND by pure happenstance, happened to catch one of my favorite scenes. The one where British have landed on Sword beach, and two Tommies (one played by Sean Connery) encounter a proper pukka beachmaster and his bulldog "Winston".
Half-track is stalled, driver says he thinks because of water in the works.
BM: "My grandmother used to say, anything mechanical won't work, give it a good wack!" (Or something like that). And proceeds to do just that, with his cane (or some kind of very hefty swagger stick.)
Driver tries again, engine fires up, "Thank you, sir!" and off he goes.
Private Connery turns to his chum, "Now that's a real man." "Yeah - and I like his dog too."
BM: "Why are you two just standing there? This isn't Hyde Park Corner - the war's that way," pointing inland with his Big Stick. . . .
This from an admirer of Putin. Did he not notice it’s possible to leave the EU voluntarily ?
Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban urged his supporters to “occupy Brussels” during the upcoming European election.
During his speech on the occasion of the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848 against the Habsburg rule, Orban compared the EU to imperial occupiers and called the Western world a source of cultural decay and destruction.
"They start wars, destroy worlds, redraw countries’ borders and graze on everything like locusts We Hungarians live differently and want to live differently."
The Prime Minister of Hungary said the European elections are a chance to stand up for Hungary:
“Brussels is not the first empire that has set its eyes on Hungary. The peoples of Europe today are afraid that Brussels will take away their freedom... If we want to preserve Hungary’s freedom and sovereignty, we have no other choice but to occupy Brussels. We will march to Brussels and bring the change to the European Union ourselves." Orban stated. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1768712846987182244
This from an admirer of Putin. Did he not notice it’s possible to leave the EU voluntarily ?
Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban urged his supporters to “occupy Brussels” during the upcoming European election.
During his speech on the occasion of the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848 against the Habsburg rule, Orban compared the EU to imperial occupiers and called the Western world a source of cultural decay and destruction.
"They start wars, destroy worlds, redraw countries’ borders and graze on everything like locusts We Hungarians live differently and want to live differently."
The Prime Minister of Hungary said the European elections are a chance to stand up for Hungary:
“Brussels is not the first empire that has set its eyes on Hungary. The peoples of Europe today are afraid that Brussels will take away their freedom... If we want to preserve Hungary’s freedom and sovereignty, we have no other choice but to occupy Brussels. We will march to Brussels and bring the change to the European Union ourselves." Orban stated. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1768712846987182244
Has someone told Victor that the Hungarians were defeated in 1849 due to the Russians helping the Austrians out?
That would mean Parliament would have to be dissolved by 5 September.
But the Summer Recess has already been announced as 24 July to 10 September.
So that would mean no Parliamentary wash-up - which surely would never happen as all Bills in progress would be lost.
Unless Parliament was recalled just before the end of August - which also seems very unlikely given everyone would be on holiday.
And that's all before considering it would mean no Autumn Statement.
And also Charles (hopefully!) in Samoa on 21 October - so he may have left for Australia by then - and if not he would be very close to doing so.
What bills in progress, though?
Post Office (Horizon System) Compensation will have passed by then Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) ditto
Does the govt really care that much about the Renters Reform or High Speed Rail (Crewe - Manchester) bills?
Final reshuffle, late August Parliament returns, 2nd September Autumn statement, 4th September Dissolution, 5th September
Just about do-able...
Does the passage of the Autumn Statement need some wash up itself, depending on what is announced, or would that just be a budget?
Usually, yes. Autumn Statement 2023 on 22nd November resulted in the Finance Bill 2023-24, which was debated on the 22nd, 23rd, and 27th November,
I think that was largely a result of the NI changes, though - I suspect that a minimal autumn statement could be passed much more quickly if necessary.
This from an admirer of Putin. Did he not notice it’s possible to leave the EU voluntarily ?
Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban urged his supporters to “occupy Brussels” during the upcoming European election.
During his speech on the occasion of the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848 against the Habsburg rule, Orban compared the EU to imperial occupiers and called the Western world a source of cultural decay and destruction.
"They start wars, destroy worlds, redraw countries’ borders and graze on everything like locusts We Hungarians live differently and want to live differently."
The Prime Minister of Hungary said the European elections are a chance to stand up for Hungary:
“Brussels is not the first empire that has set its eyes on Hungary. The peoples of Europe today are afraid that Brussels will take away their freedom... If we want to preserve Hungary’s freedom and sovereignty, we have no other choice but to occupy Brussels. We will march to Brussels and bring the change to the European Union ourselves." Orban stated. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1768712846987182244
Nem! Nem! Soha!
AND best regards from VO to the ghost of Lord Rothermere - the Man Who Could Have Been King of Hungary.
Just happened to flip on TV, and one of the El Cheapo broadcast movie channels is re-running "The Longest Day".
AND by pure happenstance, happened to catch one of my favorite scenes. The one where British have landed on Sword beach, and two Tommies (one played by Sean Connery) encounter a proper pukka beachmaster and his bulldog "Winston".
Half-track is stalled, driver says he thinks because of water in the works.
BM: "My grandmother used to say, anything mechanical won't work, give it a good wack!" (Or something like that). And proceeds to do just that, with his cane (or some kind of very hefty swagger stick.)
Driver tries again, engine fires up, "Thank you, sir!" and off he goes.
Private Connery turns to his chum, "Now that's a real man." "Yeah - and I like his dog too."
BM: "Why are you two just standing there? This isn't Hyde Park Corner - the war's that way," pointing inland with his Big Stick. . . .
Incidentally the actor Richard Todd was in D-Day IRL and played a soldier in the action he was in. This resulted in Richard Todd (playing John Howard) talking to Patrick Jordan (playing Richard Todd)
That would mean Parliament would have to be dissolved by 5 September.
But the Summer Recess has already been announced as 24 July to 10 September.
So that would mean no Parliamentary wash-up - which surely would never happen as all Bills in progress would be lost.
Unless Parliament was recalled just before the end of August - which also seems very unlikely given everyone would be on holiday.
And that's all before considering it would mean no Autumn Statement.
And also Charles (hopefully!) in Samoa on 21 October - so he may have left for Australia by then - and if not he would be very close to doing so.
What bills in progress, though?
Post Office (Horizon System) Compensation will have passed by then Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) ditto
Does the govt really care that much about the Renters Reform or High Speed Rail (Crewe - Manchester) bills?
Final reshuffle, late August Parliament returns, 2nd September Autumn statement, 4th September Dissolution, 5th September
Just about do-able...
Does the passage of the Autumn Statement need some wash up itself, depending on what is announced, or would that just be a budget?
Usually, yes. Autumn Statement 2023 on 22nd November resulted in the Finance Bill 2023-24, which was debated on the 22nd, 23rd, and 27th November,
I think that was largely a result of the NI changes, though - I suspect that a minimal autumn statement could be passed much more quickly if necessary.
But the point is that if they're having an Autumn Statement, they're going to have something in it which will need to be enacted.
That would mean Parliament would have to be dissolved by 5 September.
But the Summer Recess has already been announced as 24 July to 10 September.
So that would mean no Parliamentary wash-up - which surely would never happen as all Bills in progress would be lost.
Unless Parliament was recalled just before the end of August - which also seems very unlikely given everyone would be on holiday.
And that's all before considering it would mean no Autumn Statement.
And also Charles (hopefully!) in Samoa on 21 October - so he may have left for Australia by then - and if not he would be very close to doing so.
What bills in progress, though?
Post Office (Horizon System) Compensation will have passed by then Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) ditto
Does the govt really care that much about the Renters Reform or High Speed Rail (Crewe - Manchester) bills?
Final reshuffle, late August Parliament returns, 2nd September Autumn statement, 4th September Dissolution, 5th September
Just about do-able...
Does the passage of the Autumn Statement need some wash up itself, depending on what is announced, or would that just be a budget?
Usually, yes. Autumn Statement 2023 on 22nd November resulted in the Finance Bill 2023-24, which was debated on the 22nd, 23rd, and 27th November,
I think that was largely a result of the NI changes, though - I suspect that a minimal autumn statement could be passed much more quickly if necessary.
But the point is that if they're having an Autumn Statement, they're going to have something in it which will need to be enacted.
Sure, it implies a complete do-nothing autumn statement.
But that's the point - by bottling a May election, the government finds itself in a situation where no plausible election date appeals. This implies a January GE, but they can't possibly... can they?
This from an admirer of Putin. Did he not notice it’s possible to leave the EU voluntarily ?
Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban urged his supporters to “occupy Brussels” during the upcoming European election.
During his speech on the occasion of the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848 against the Habsburg rule, Orban compared the EU to imperial occupiers and called the Western world a source of cultural decay and destruction.
"They start wars, destroy worlds, redraw countries’ borders and graze on everything like locusts We Hungarians live differently and want to live differently."
The Prime Minister of Hungary said the European elections are a chance to stand up for Hungary:
“Brussels is not the first empire that has set its eyes on Hungary. The peoples of Europe today are afraid that Brussels will take away their freedom... If we want to preserve Hungary’s freedom and sovereignty, we have no other choice but to occupy Brussels. We will march to Brussels and bring the change to the European Union ourselves." Orban stated. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1768712846987182244
Hungary should leave the EU . Of course Orban is happy to moan but wouldn’t dare leave as it would screw the economy .
That would mean Parliament would have to be dissolved by 5 September.
But the Summer Recess has already been announced as 24 July to 10 September.
So that would mean no Parliamentary wash-up - which surely would never happen as all Bills in progress would be lost.
Unless Parliament was recalled just before the end of August - which also seems very unlikely given everyone would be on holiday.
And that's all before considering it would mean no Autumn Statement.
And also Charles (hopefully!) in Samoa on 21 October - so he may have left for Australia by then - and if not he would be very close to doing so.
What bills in progress, though?
Post Office (Horizon System) Compensation will have passed by then Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) ditto
Does the govt really care that much about the Renters Reform or High Speed Rail (Crewe - Manchester) bills?
Final reshuffle, late August Parliament returns, 2nd September Autumn statement, 4th September Dissolution, 5th September
Just about do-able...
Does the passage of the Autumn Statement need some wash up itself, depending on what is announced, or would that just be a budget?
Usually, yes. Autumn Statement 2023 on 22nd November resulted in the Finance Bill 2023-24, which was debated on the 22nd, 23rd, and 27th November,
I think that was largely a result of the NI changes, though - I suspect that a minimal autumn statement could be passed much more quickly if necessary.
But the point is that if they're having an Autumn Statement, they're going to have something in it which will need to be enacted.
How ironic to delay the election until after an Autumn Statement which say 'nothing has changed'. Only Sunak could come up with such a masterplan.
Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......
But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?
Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?
Really pleased Leon decided not to post about AI today. Imagine the conversation if he hadn't.
Apologies. Seriously
I know it annoys people but the trouble is AI really is THE issue of the day, it is potentially the biggest story in human history, and it is rapidly unfolding right here right now, and this has been (yet another) incredible week of development, it is stupendously hard to ignore, especially on a day without any other news ("Geo Galloway not becoming Manchester mayor" doesn't really equal "the end of human society as we know it", does it?)
Just look at that robot which @TOPPING thinks is fake
One interesting thing is that quite a lot of people think it is fake, and they aren't all dumb. Why? Because it scares them, they WANT to believe it is fake
This from an admirer of Putin. Did he not notice it’s possible to leave the EU voluntarily ?
Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban urged his supporters to “occupy Brussels” during the upcoming European election.
During his speech on the occasion of the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848 against the Habsburg rule, Orban compared the EU to imperial occupiers and called the Western world a source of cultural decay and destruction.
"They start wars, destroy worlds, redraw countries’ borders and graze on everything like locusts We Hungarians live differently and want to live differently."
The Prime Minister of Hungary said the European elections are a chance to stand up for Hungary:
“Brussels is not the first empire that has set its eyes on Hungary. The peoples of Europe today are afraid that Brussels will take away their freedom... If we want to preserve Hungary’s freedom and sovereignty, we have no other choice but to occupy Brussels. We will march to Brussels and bring the change to the European Union ourselves." Orban stated. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1768712846987182244
Nem! Nem! Soha!
AND best regards from VO to the ghost of Lord Rothermere - the Man Who Could Have Been King of Hungary.
Sorta (as contrasted with "Soha!)
After a series of serious Austrian defeats in 1849, the Austrian Empire came close to the brink of collapse. The new emperor Franz Joseph I had to call for Russian help in the name of the Holy Alliance.[10] In the hope of Russian military support, the young Emperor Franz Joseph kissed the hands of the Ruler of all the Russians in Warsaw on 21 May 1849.[11] Nicholas I of Russia agreed with Franz Joseph and sent a 200,000 strong army with 80,000 auxiliary forces. The joint Russo-Austrian army finally defeated the Hungarian forces, Habsburg power was restored and Hungary was placed under martial law.[12]
Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......
But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?
Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?
Yeah, put an outright racist as part of the PLP. Genius.
Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......
But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?
Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?
Does Abbott want to be back in the fold? She sure doesn't act like it on twitter...
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
Just happened to flip on TV, and one of the El Cheapo broadcast movie channels is re-running "The Longest Day".
AND by pure happenstance, happened to catch one of my favorite scenes. The one where British have landed on Sword beach, and two Tommies (one played by Sean Connery) encounter a proper pukka beachmaster and his bulldog "Winston".
Half-track is stalled, driver says he thinks because of water in the works.
BM: "My grandmother used to say, anything mechanical won't work, give it a good wack!" (Or something like that). And proceeds to do just that, with his cane (or some kind of very hefty swagger stick.)
Driver tries again, engine fires up, "Thank you, sir!" and off he goes.
Private Connery turns to his chum, "Now that's a real man." "Yeah - and I like his dog too."
BM: "Why are you two just standing there? This isn't Hyde Park Corner - the war's that way," pointing inland with his Big Stick. . . .
When I was about 12 we were driving through Northern France and my Dad took us on a detour to see Pegasus Bridge (the first action of D-day). We stopped into the cafe, still owned by the same family. The only other customers were all the survivors of that raid having their annual meet up. Spent all afternoon with them. Got a group photo I'm looking at right now.
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......
But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?
Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?
Does Abbott want to be back in the fold? She sure doesn't act like it on twitter...
If she wants to be re-elected this year then I assume she's keen enough.
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
Boris, you mean?
Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?
Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.
But we've tried turning the taps on. Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".
And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives. Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.
Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
Boris, you mean?
Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?
Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.
But we've tried turning the taps on. Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".
And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives. Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.
Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.
The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
This is why I'm glad I'm going to die before my consciousness can be reproduced artificially with self-awareness. Any virtual environment can be turned into hell, and given the gehennas we create worldwide IRL I assume they will. No artificial intelligence will ever be as bad as we have been and will be again,
Not me. I will always want to see what happens next.
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
Boris, you mean?
Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?
Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.
But we've tried turning the taps on. Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".
And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives. Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.
Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.
The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
Who, then, could be Boris-without-being-Boris?
The answer, surely, has to be Mordaunt. And she seems to be popular enough with the party members that she might actually win if she were to reach the final two.
But how do we get to that point? Which Tory MPs are going to knife Sunak in order to get Mordaunt?
We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.
I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals
I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.
Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.
I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.
Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......
But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?
Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?
No votes in that Roger. Votes > seats > power > action.
I felt it was wrong not to allow Abbott to speak at PMQs but she does not deserve to have the whip reinstated. She made a terrible anti-semitic comment in a letter to a national newspaper. Her apology is welcome but does not right the wrong, any more than Hester's apology does for his racist misogynist comments.
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
Boris, you mean?
Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?
Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.
But we've tried turning the taps on. Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".
And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives. Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.
Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.
The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
Not possible, unfortunately.
Lots of public spending without tax rises?
Freedom for me, but not for thee?
Having your cake and eating it?
It sounds great in a speech or a manifesto, but it's not actually doable. And anyone with even an ounce more integrity than Boris knows that and couldn't campaign on a Borisite platform.
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
Sub 20%.
Dire.
I did wonder aloud on here what the weekend's polling would bring after this week's appalling behaviour from the Tories.
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
Yes. I don’t really follow this narrative of Boris being somehow stabbed in the back or wrongfully deposed. He brought it all on himself. Any decent person would have resigned, but he had to hang on (like a limpet up a whale’s arse, as M Tucker would have it).
Dumping him wasn’t a mistake; his position was untenable.
Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......
But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?
Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?
Suella's only defending a 42.5% majority in Fareham & Waterlooville, it would be appalling for PM SKS not to offer her a job, maybe High Commissioner to Rwanda?
We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.
I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals
Annoyed at More in Common for the 11% lowest Labour polling lead on route though. Any chance whatever of the Tories bettering that in the next 2.5 weeks?
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
Just happened to flip on TV, and one of the El Cheapo broadcast movie channels is re-running "The Longest Day".
AND by pure happenstance, happened to catch one of my favorite scenes. The one where British have landed on Sword beach, and two Tommies (one played by Sean Connery) encounter a proper pukka beachmaster and his bulldog "Winston".
Half-track is stalled, driver says he thinks because of water in the works.
BM: "My grandmother used to say, anything mechanical won't work, give it a good wack!" (Or something like that). And proceeds to do just that, with his cane (or some kind of very hefty swagger stick.)
Driver tries again, engine fires up, "Thank you, sir!" and off he goes.
Private Connery turns to his chum, "Now that's a real man." "Yeah - and I like his dog too."
BM: "Why are you two just standing there? This isn't Hyde Park Corner - the war's that way," pointing inland with his Big Stick. . . .
Incidentally the actor Richard Todd was in D-Day IRL and played a soldier in the action he was in. This resulted in Richard Todd (playing John Howard) talking to Patrick Jordan (playing Richard Todd)
Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
Boris, you mean?
Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?
Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.
But we've tried turning the taps on. Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".
And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives. Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.
Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.
The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
Who, then, could be Boris-without-being-Boris?
The answer, surely, has to be Mordaunt. And she seems to be popular enough with the party members that she might actually win if she were to reach the final two.
But how do we get to that point? Which Tory MPs are going to knife Sunak in order to get Mordaunt?
She's the only one really capable of taking the fight to Labour and may well have done so had the Tories not made the disastrous decision to prioritise right-wing idealogical purity by electing Truss, instead of electability. Too late now, I guess. Rishi was always the "safe pair of hands" option but after the Truss debacle you really need to take a risk to have a chance, and the risk (electing Mordaunt) wasn't taken.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h I used to think the 'crossover point' wd be when the Tories under Sunak dipped lower than Truss. Will the new crossover point will be Reform nudging ahead of the Tories? Hard to believe but this has been a strange old few years..
We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.
I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals
Annoyed at More in Common for the 11% lowest Labour polling lead on route though. Any chance whatever of the Tories bettering that in the next 2.5 weeks?
Comments
Quasi-consensual? Semi-consummated? Banned in thirteen states?
Given that the latest chatbots can also remember conversations over extended periods, they would also develop freindships and feuds. This is surely coming. Ask Claude 3 about "Dead Internet Theory"
However I am far from convinced that AI is necessarily going to be "fantastic". It will be fantastically interesting, but that is a very different thing
AI will be like the invention of fire, agriculture, industry, the internet, smartphones and nukes, all at once
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dizzy_Dean
We (the west) should give them more tools.
That should tie it up for a decade at least.
“ Among his achievements were winning an Olympic gold and silver in tennis at the 1920 Summer Olympics,[6] winning the doubles at Wimbledon, compiling a 147 break in snooker, making a century at Lord's Cricket Ground, captaining the British Davis Cup team, captaining Manchester City F.C. finishing ultimately runners-up for the Football League Championship in 1920–21, and captaining the England national football team.[7] He also played football for Cambridge Town.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Woosnam
It is an incredible drug, everyone should try it at least once, it is also seriously therapeutic (and rather scary)
Needs to be approached with respect and you need to do it with reliable experienced people. I know this world quite well now: DM me if you are sincerely interested
But the Summer Recess has already been announced as 24 July to 10 September.
So that would mean no Parliamentary wash-up - which surely would never happen as all Bills in progress would be lost.
Unless Parliament was recalled just before the end of August - which also seems very unlikely given everyone would be on holiday.
And that's all before considering it would mean no Autumn Statement.
And also Charles (hopefully!) in Samoa on 21 October - so he may have left for Australia by then - and if not he would be very close to doing so.
When dealing with them, just remember that:
- cacao is just hot chocolate
- laughter yoga involves neither real laughter nor real yoga
- sexological bodywork is just sex work with less soap
...and you'll avoid the worst of the hippy scammers involved.Since like most of the PB herd you mention/moan about the SNP more than I praise them, AI might have a bit more material to work with in your case.
'We' aren't giving them the tools we could be giving them; hence they aren't able to drive the Russians back.
I do know some good people and I know how to reach them
Fought at Gallipoli and the Western Front.
NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 46%
CON: 18%
REFORM: 13%
LIB: 10%
GREEN: 7%
SNP: 4%
OTHER: 2%
via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar
https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771
The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
Post Office (Horizon System) Compensation will have passed by then
Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) ditto
Does the govt really care that much about the Renters Reform or High Speed Rail (Crewe - Manchester) bills?
Final reshuffle, late August
Parliament returns, 2nd September
Autumn statement, 4th September
Dissolution, 5th September
Just about do-able...
:: ruffles your hair and gives you a shiny farthing ::
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSwfpVRVWlo
AND by pure happenstance, happened to catch one of my favorite scenes. The one where British have landed on Sword beach, and two Tommies (one played by Sean Connery) encounter a proper pukka beachmaster and his bulldog "Winston".
Half-track is stalled, driver says he thinks because of water in the works.
BM: "My grandmother used to say, anything mechanical won't work, give it a good wack!" (Or something like that). And proceeds to do just that, with his cane (or some kind of very hefty swagger stick.)
Driver tries again, engine fires up, "Thank you, sir!" and off he goes.
Private Connery turns to his chum, "Now that's a real man." "Yeah - and I like his dog too."
BM: "Why are you two just standing there? This isn't Hyde Park Corner - the war's that way," pointing inland with his Big Stick. . . .
Did he not notice it’s possible to leave the EU voluntarily ?
Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban urged his supporters to “occupy Brussels” during the upcoming European election.
During his speech on the occasion of the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848 against the Habsburg rule, Orban compared the EU to imperial occupiers and called the Western world a source of cultural decay and destruction.
"They start wars, destroy worlds, redraw countries’ borders and graze on everything like locusts We Hungarians live differently and want to live differently."
The Prime Minister of Hungary said the European elections are a chance to stand up for Hungary:
“Brussels is not the first empire that has set its eyes on Hungary. The peoples of Europe today are afraid that Brussels will take away their freedom... If we want to preserve Hungary’s freedom and sovereignty, we have no other choice but to occupy Brussels. We will march to Brussels and bring the change to the European Union ourselves." Orban stated.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1768712846987182244
Either Sunak calls the election for 2nd May.
Or we get to wait until PM Rehman Chisti has had time to form a government and lay out the bills for his vision of the future.
Asking for a friend. More than one really, more like 40 million or thereabouts, from Wick to Wack, and back.
I think that was largely a result of the NI changes, though - I suspect that a minimal autumn statement could be passed much more quickly if necessary.
AND best regards from VO to the ghost of Lord Rothermere - the Man Who Could Have Been King of Hungary.
Sorta (as contrasted with "Soha!)
Poll was released that showed his re-elect number was 19% freaking percent.
Granted, this was in non-parliamentary, two-party (mostly) system; Lowry won 52% or ten-points higher than Boris Johson's Conservatives.
Even so, 18% is pretty damn dire.
https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK
TLDR: Lab gain, Lab gain, Lab gain, Lab gain.
Incidentally the actor Richard Todd was in D-Day IRL and played a soldier in the action he was in. This resulted in Richard Todd (playing John Howard) talking to Patrick Jordan (playing Richard Todd)
I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals
But that's the point - by bottling a May election, the government finds itself in a situation where no plausible election date appeals. This implies a January GE, but they can't possibly... can they?
But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?
Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_Revolution_of_1848
The only other customers were all the survivors of that raid having their annual meet up. Spent all afternoon with them. Got a group photo I'm looking at right now.
A slightly more sophisticated answer, a good model would respond to the question in the way that's most useful.
Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?
Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.
But we've tried turning the taps on.
Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".
And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives.
Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.
Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
I will always want to see what happens next.
The answer, surely, has to be Mordaunt. And she seems to be popular enough with the party members that she might actually win if she were to reach the final two.
But how do we get to that point? Which Tory MPs are going to knife Sunak in order to get Mordaunt?
Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.
I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.
Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
I felt it was wrong not to allow Abbott to speak at PMQs but she does not deserve to have the whip reinstated. She made a terrible anti-semitic comment in a letter to a national newspaper. Her apology is welcome but does not right the wrong, any more than Hester's apology does for his racist misogynist comments.
Lots of public spending without tax rises?
Freedom for me, but not for thee?
Having your cake and eating it?
It sounds great in a speech or a manifesto, but it's not actually doable. And anyone with even an ounce more integrity than Boris knows that and couldn't campaign on a Borisite platform.
It always ends with some version of badly.
Dire.
I did wonder aloud on here what the weekend's polling would bring after this week's appalling behaviour from the Tories.
Dumping him wasn’t a mistake; his position was untenable.
Just when you thought Wales couldn't get any worse,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68574837
So glad I moved to England 50 years ago.
But not to Cheltenham, obviously...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-68574938
But a miss is a mile.
I don't know that this means anything!
@paulwaugh
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1h
I used to think the 'crossover point' wd be when the Tories under Sunak dipped lower than Truss.
Will the new crossover point will be Reform nudging ahead of the Tories?
Hard to believe but this has been a strange old few years..
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1768724287815291165