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Is Greater Manchester ready for Mayor Galloway? – politicalbetting.com

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Just happened to flip on TV, and one of the El Cheapo broadcast movie channels is re-running "The Longest Day".

    AND by pure happenstance, happened to catch one of my favorite scenes. The one where British have landed on Sword beach, and two Tommies (one played by Sean Connery) encounter a proper pukka beachmaster and his bulldog "Winston".

    Half-track is stalled, driver says he thinks because of water in the works.

    BM: "My grandmother used to say, anything mechanical won't work, give it a good wack!" (Or something like that). And proceeds to do just that, with his cane (or some kind of very hefty swagger stick.)

    Driver tries again, engine fires up, "Thank you, sir!" and off he goes.

    Private Connery turns to his chum, "Now that's a real man." "Yeah - and I like his dog too."

    BM: "Why are you two just standing there? This isn't Hyde Park Corner - the war's that way," pointing inland with his Big Stick. . . .

    When I was about 12 we were driving through Northern France and my Dad took us on a detour to see Pegasus Bridge (the first action of D-day). We stopped into the cafe, still owned by the same family.
    The only other customers were all the survivors of that raid having their annual meet up. Spent all afternoon with them. Got a group photo I'm looking at right now.
    Talk about kismet - at least for you! And how was the grub?

    Certainly your hobnobbing with glory, puts ME in the shade, for having shaken hands with Father of Pickleball.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    1h
    I used to think the 'crossover point' wd be when the Tories under Sunak dipped lower than Truss.
    Will the new crossover point will be Reform nudging ahead of the Tories?
    Hard to believe but this has been a strange old few years..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1768724287815291165

    He's been reading my PB post... {checks timestamp} ...before I even wrote it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    None of the useless fuckers in Massive Johnson's government, including his civil servants, have any common sense whatsoever.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Depends how and when they deploy their Tactical Nige, I think.

    Agree they may fade after the locals, but if they get Farage out as the face of the party (rather than Tice, who looks like a corrupt detective inspector from the East Midlands) they’ll get a sustainable boost.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    1h
    I used to think the 'crossover point' wd be when the Tories under Sunak dipped lower than Truss.
    Will the new crossover point will be Reform nudging ahead of the Tories?
    Hard to believe but this has been a strange old few years..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1768724287815291165

    Tbf those crossovers are probably synchronous. The Tories briefly his 14% under Truss (PeoplePolling 20 Oct 2022). That is probably what they'll be on when RefUK overtake them.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    WillG said:

    AlsoLei said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    Boris, you mean?

    Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?

    Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.

    But we've tried turning the taps on.
    Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".

    And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives.
    Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.

    Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
    There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.

    The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
    How do you replicate the 2019 campaign? You can't Brexit twice, and if you could, the public would be against it this time!
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    Oh dear.

    UK-India trade deal talks fail to find breakthrough on accord
    https://www.ft.com/content/34ef2976-63de-45c8-84a5-6cc3ebd49c69

    vs

    India signs $100bn free trade deal with four European nations
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68531241
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Will they ?

    I really don’t think you can assume the Conservatives will rebound like that.
    It’s not impossible, and it’s why Rishi will cling on … but it’s just as possible that they decline further.

    I was a sympathy for John Major guy, back in the day. This lot ? Fuck ‘em.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    WillG said:

    AlsoLei said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    Boris, you mean?

    Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?

    Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.

    But we've tried turning the taps on.
    Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".

    And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives.
    Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.

    Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
    There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.

    The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
    How do you replicate the 2019 campaign? You can't Brexit twice, and if you could, the public would be against it this time!
    Perhaps Tories could leverage off the PO Scandal, by calling for Puexit = UK leaving International Postal Union.

    Pronounced "Pwex-it".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    Ghedebrav said:

    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Depends how and when they deploy their Tactical Nige, I think.

    Agree they may fade after the locals, but if they get Farage out as the face of the party (rather than Tice, who looks like a corrupt detective inspector from the East Midlands) they’ll get a sustainable boost.
    I'm curious as to whether and when Farage will join the fray. Time is passing and an opportunity to pressure the Tories from the Right is going begging.

    Is he simply not interested?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    WillG said:

    AlsoLei said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    Boris, you mean?

    Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?

    Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.

    But we've tried turning the taps on.
    Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".

    And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives.
    Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.

    Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
    There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.

    The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
    How do you replicate the 2019 campaign? You can't Brexit twice, and if you could, the public would be against it this time!
    The general direction of patriotism plus limiting immigration plus economic support for the lower middle class.

    Plus the Tories won't face the general European economic slowdown next time.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    9m
    MAIL EXCLUSIVE: Plot to crown Mordaunt as PM #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Here’s one for @SeaShantyIrish2 .

    Before Pence's decision NOT to endorse Trump today, the last Republican VP to not endorse the president under whom he served was Taft in 1912 – when Taft (the Republican candidate) ran against Teddy Roosevelt (Progressive party/"Bull Moose party").
    https://twitter.com/DrGJackBrown/status/1768748631287640232
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    So here it is. Tory poll deficit is so disastrous and the performance of the party is so chaotic that going to the country now is an absurd idea.

    But - not going to the country is even more absurd. As catastrophic as now is, the future is worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    Telegraph and Mail claim they have exclusive on Mordaunt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Telegraph and Mail claim they have exclusive on Mordaunt.

    TBF, she probably told that to both of them.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Maybe. Reform UK are standing in some local elections. They're standing in the London mayoral contest + London Assembly, and in at least 2 other mayoral elections. They're not going to win any mayoral contests, but they seem likely to get at least 1 London AM elected.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    Dorries (I know) said that 'the cabal' (who had been making moves against Sunak with that Telegraph poll etc.) would HATE Mordaunt to be the new leader. So either there's another Tory faction behind this, or they've patched up their differences with Mordaunt out of sheer desperation?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    Ghedebrav said:

    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Depends how and when they deploy their Tactical Nige, I think.

    Agree they may fade after the locals, but if they get Farage out as the face of the party (rather than Tice, who looks like a corrupt detective inspector from the East Midlands) they’ll get a sustainable boost.
    I'm curious as to whether and when Farage will join the fray. Time is passing and an opportunity to pressure the Tories from the Right is going begging.

    Is he simply not interested?
    Astonishingly, it turns out that he's only in his late 50s - he probably has another 10-15 years to go in top-level politics if he wants it.

    But it seems that he doesn't. He enjoys the elder statesman role too much.

    Or something less than that - occasional shit-stirring, leavened by singing happy birthday to people for fifty quid a time on Cameo.

    People like to claim that he's the most influential politician of our time. But what's he actually done with that? Robert Fucking-Kilroy-Silk ended up doing more. Farage has run away from the fight.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    Telegraph and Mail claim they have exclusive on Mordaunt.

    She'll beat Starmer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700

    Christopher Hope📝

    @christopherhope
    ·
    22m
    Is this idea that I reported on in January - to install Penny Mordaunt as Tory leader - about to happen? 👇
    Labour shadow ministers tell me privately they fear her the most.
    And she would be unlikely to be voted in by party members.
    So… this could be her best chance.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    Nigelb said:

    Here’s one for @SeaShantyIrish2 .

    Before Pence's decision NOT to endorse Trump today, the last Republican VP to not endorse the president under whom he served was Taft in 1912 – when Taft (the Republican candidate) ran against Teddy Roosevelt (Progressive party/"Bull Moose party").
    https://twitter.com/DrGJackBrown/status/1768748631287640232

    Incorrect.

    Because Taft was Secretary of War. Charles Warren Fairbanks was VP.

    Franklin D. Roosevelt and Garner is in any case more recent.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    edited March 15
    There hasn't been much predicting going on regards the Russian election. Is there a betting market on Putin's vote share?

    My guess is he will go for something like 74%. Acknowledgement that there is some opposition but nearly three times as many Russians remain committed to the new Tsar. Just about believable without being crazy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Dorries (I know) said that 'the cabal' (who had been making moves against Sunak with that Telegraph poll etc.) would HATE Mordaunt to be the new leader. So either there's another Tory faction behind this, or they've patched up their differences with Mordaunt out of sheer desperation?

    Or... Dorries is a fantasist.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    edited March 15
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Will they ?

    I really don’t think you can assume the Conservatives will rebound like that.
    It’s not impossible, and it’s why Rishi will cling on … but it’s just as possible that they decline further.

    I was a sympathy for John Major guy, back in the day. This lot ? Fuck ‘em.
    We’ve seen minor parties soar and then collapse multiple times in recent years so it’s very much the form horse. The big two always make it back.

    SDP-Liberal alliance in 1983, going back to their constituencies and preparing for government. Dead by the end of the decade.

    Greens getting 15% in the Euros in 1989 then vanishing in a puff of smoke.

    Lib Dems threatening to break through the big two in 2010, reaching 30% in the polls during the Cleggasm. Actually went backwards in the election then almost wiped out 5 years later.

    UKIP hitting the mid teens in 2014/15 then a walking joke within a couple of years, then BXP threatening crossover with May’s tories only to fade again, and now Reform putting on 5% in a couple of months. Won’t last.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,574
    AlsoLei said:

    Oh dear.

    UK-India trade deal talks fail to find breakthrough on accord
    https://www.ft.com/content/34ef2976-63de-45c8-84a5-6cc3ebd49c69

    vs

    India signs $100bn free trade deal with four European nations
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68531241

    Did you read the part where it says EFTA took 16 years to negotiate this deal? We’ve closed 24/26 chapters in two years.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    9m
    MAIL EXCLUSIVE: Plot to crown Mordaunt as PM #TomorrowsPapersToday

    I thought she may be the one to replace Boris but she didn't make much impression in the leadership election when she had her chance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    There hasn't been much predicting going on regards the Russian election. Is there a betting market on Putin's vote share?

    My guess is he will go for something like 74%. Acknowledgement that there is some opposition but nearly three times as many Russians remain committed to the new Tsar. Just about believable without being crazy.

    Your regular reminder that of the Russian imperial family:

    Alexander II was blown up
    So was his son Grand Duke Sergei
    Nicholas II and his brother were shot...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984


    Christopher Hope📝

    @christopherhope
    ·
    22m
    Is this idea that I reported on in January - to install Penny Mordaunt as Tory leader - about to happen? 👇
    Labour shadow ministers tell me privately they fear her the most.
    And she would be unlikely to be voted in by party members.
    So… this could be her best chance.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope

    Time to stand up and fight.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    Leon said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Apart from anything else, "grifter" is being so overused it is losing any impact, so you really should desist, and save it for actual grifters

    English has the richest vocabulary of any language on earth: exploit it!
    also it seems only to be applied to those on the right.
    Russell Brand used to be a grifter on the left but is now a grifter on the right. Left wing people tend to lack the entrepreneurial flair required for the role.
    Oh god, there's loads of them on twitter.

    People with between a fifty thousand and a million followers who post an endless stream of "Fuck the tories!", "What's your favourite biscuit? Mine's a bourbon!", "Boris is a wankmuffin!", "Send me money, and I'll pass it on to a charity!", "Here's a clip from BBC QT that proves that all Tories are shits!"...

    Grifters, all of them. Some are better at wheedling money out of their followers than others, but they're all on the take to some extent.
    Captain Tom’s family must be the greatest and most shameless grifters in history. Closely followed by “rachel from Swindon” and the son of “Harry’s last stand”. All on the left
    Captain Tom's family are the toriest tories that ever toried ffs.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    Dorries (I know) said that 'the cabal' (who had been making moves against Sunak with that Telegraph poll etc.) would HATE Mordaunt to be the new leader. So either there's another Tory faction behind this, or they've patched up their differences with Mordaunt out of sheer desperation?

    Or... Dorries is a fantasist.
    She's as often right as wrong. I don't think she's a fantasist, but she sees (and reports) everything as a novellist.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    AlsoLei said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    Boris, you mean?

    Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?

    Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.

    But we've tried turning the taps on.
    Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".

    And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives.
    Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.

    Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
    There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.

    The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
    How do you replicate the 2019 campaign? You can't Brexit twice, and if you could, the public would be against it this time!
    The general direction of patriotism plus limiting immigration plus economic support for the lower middle class.

    Plus the Tories won't face the general European economic slowdown next time.

    (a) I think that mischaracterises why the Tories won in 2019.

    (b) Limiting immigration will be popular with some voters, but the Tories' credibility on delivering such a promise is non-existent. The voters are once bitten, twice shy.

    (c) Economic support for the lower middle class, yes, could be a vote winner. Except again the party's credibility on this is poor.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,286
    I don't fear Mordaunt.

    She's another Tory mirage in the desert.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Just happened to flip on TV, and one of the El Cheapo broadcast movie channels is re-running "The Longest Day".

    AND by pure happenstance, happened to catch one of my favorite scenes. The one where British have landed on Sword beach, and two Tommies (one played by Sean Connery) encounter a proper pukka beachmaster and his bulldog "Winston".

    Half-track is stalled, driver says he thinks because of water in the works.

    BM: "My grandmother used to say, anything mechanical won't work, give it a good wack!" (Or something like that). And proceeds to do just that, with his cane (or some kind of very hefty swagger stick.)

    Driver tries again, engine fires up, "Thank you, sir!" and off he goes.

    Private Connery turns to his chum, "Now that's a real man." "Yeah - and I like his dog too."

    BM: "Why are you two just standing there? This isn't Hyde Park Corner - the war's that way," pointing inland with his Big Stick. . . .

    And those early scenes with the German soldier on his horse, played by the actor who went on to become Goldfinger.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    ydoethur said:

    There hasn't been much predicting going on regards the Russian election. Is there a betting market on Putin's vote share?

    My guess is he will go for something like 74%. Acknowledgement that there is some opposition but nearly three times as many Russians remain committed to the new Tsar. Just about believable without being crazy.

    Your regular reminder that of the Russian imperial family:

    Alexander II was blown up
    So was his son Grand Duke Sergei
    Nicholas II and his brother were shot...
    Autocracy, mitigated by assassination
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,574
    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Apart from anything else, "grifter" is being so overused it is losing any impact, so you really should desist, and save it for actual grifters

    English has the richest vocabulary of any language on earth: exploit it!
    also it seems only to be applied to those on the right.
    Russell Brand used to be a grifter on the left but is now a grifter on the right. Left wing people tend to lack the entrepreneurial flair required for the role.
    Oh god, there's loads of them on twitter.

    People with between a fifty thousand and a million followers who post an endless stream of "Fuck the tories!", "What's your favourite biscuit? Mine's a bourbon!", "Boris is a wankmuffin!", "Send me money, and I'll pass it on to a charity!", "Here's a clip from BBC QT that proves that all Tories are shits!"...

    Grifters, all of them. Some are better at wheedling money out of their followers than others, but they're all on the take to some extent.
    Captain Tom’s family must be the greatest and most shameless grifters in history. Closely followed by “rachel from Swindon” and the son of “Harry’s last stand”. All on the left
    Captain Tom's family are the toriest tories that ever toried ffs.
    £500k in four years for tweeting and making Facebook posts:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12953095/conservative-council-anti-tory-simon-harris-comedian-covid-pandemic-public.html

    Mixed honours here: a lefty paid by a conservative council. He deleted all his accounts in shame after his fellow lefties found out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here’s one for @SeaShantyIrish2 .

    Before Pence's decision NOT to endorse Trump today, the last Republican VP to not endorse the president under whom he served was Taft in 1912 – when Taft (the Republican candidate) ran against Teddy Roosevelt (Progressive party/"Bull Moose party").
    https://twitter.com/DrGJackBrown/status/1768748631287640232

    Incorrect.

    Because Taft was Secretary of War. Charles Warren Fairbanks was VP.

    Franklin D. Roosevelt and Garner is in any case more recent.
    Good spot of the deliberate error… :blush:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    That would almost be worth waiting until January for….
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    There hasn't been much predicting going on regards the Russian election. Is there a betting market on Putin's vote share?

    My guess is he will go for something like 74%. Acknowledgement that there is some opposition but nearly three times as many Russians remain committed to the new Tsar. Just about believable without being crazy.

    Your regular reminder that of the Russian imperial family:

    Alexander II was blown up
    So was his son Grand Duke Sergei
    Nicholas II and his brother were shot...
    Paul I (and so far only) assassinated with likely connivance of his son and heir, Alexander I.
    AND son of Ivan IV aka the Terrible, never got to be Ivan V because HIS father murdered him (first).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    ydoethur said:

    There hasn't been much predicting going on regards the Russian election. Is there a betting market on Putin's vote share?

    My guess is he will go for something like 74%. Acknowledgement that there is some opposition but nearly three times as many Russians remain committed to the new Tsar. Just about believable without being crazy.

    Your regular reminder that of the Russian imperial family:

    Alexander II was blown up
    So was his son Grand Duke Sergei
    Nicholas II and his brother were shot...
    I don't think that is likely by Sunday though! Unless you know something I don't?

    The key to the vote share is it needs to be impressive but not feel implausible. That's why I think 74% sounds about right.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Still time for Sunak to call a May 2nd GE. Who could stop him?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    edited March 15

    Dorries (I know) said that 'the cabal' (who had been making moves against Sunak with that Telegraph poll etc.) would HATE Mordaunt to be the new leader. So either there's another Tory faction behind this, or they've patched up their differences with Mordaunt out of sheer desperation?

    What cabal would hate Mordaunt?

    Badenoch, yes. Truss, yes. Bravemeran/Hayes? Probably, also yes. Edward Leigh and acoloytes? Yes, definitely, Andrea Jenkyns and the ERG rump? Mm-hm. Red wall? Yes, but who cares - they're gone anyway.

    She'd be better than Sunak, sure - but the people who hate him mostly dislike her even more.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Will they ?

    I really don’t think you can assume the Conservatives will rebound like that.
    It’s not impossible, and it’s why Rishi will cling on … but it’s just as possible that they decline further.

    I was a sympathy for John Major guy, back in the day. This lot ? Fuck ‘em.
    We’ve seen minor parties soar and then collapse multiple times in recent years so it’s very much the form horse. The big two always make it back.

    SDP-Liberal alliance in 1983, going back to their constituencies and preparing for government. Dead by the end of the decade.

    Greens getting 15% in the Euros in 1989 then vanishing in a puff of smoke.

    Lib Dems threatening to break through the big two in 2010, reaching 30% in the polls during the Cleggasm. Actually went backwards in the election then almost wiped out 5 years later.

    UKIP hitting the mid teens in 2014/15 then a walking joke within a couple of years, then BXP threatening crossover with May’s tories only to fade again, and now Reform putting on 5% in a couple of months. Won’t last.
    But the Liberals/Alliance/LibDems have gone from having a pair of MPs to being a significant third (4th, 5th?) force in the country. The Greens have established themselves too. We're no longer a 2-party country.

    Of course, the big minor party success is the SNP, who are in government in Scotland.

    And the big two did change back in the 1930s.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Pro_Rata said:

    I don't fear Mordaunt.

    She's another Tory mirage in the desert.

    I met her at a dinner a couple of years ago. She was nice enough, and fairly engaged in the evening’s conversation.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    That would almost be worth waiting until January for….
    Would love that.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Will they ?

    I really don’t think you can assume the Conservatives will rebound like that.
    It’s not impossible, and it’s why Rishi will cling on … but it’s just as possible that they decline further.

    I was a sympathy for John Major guy, back in the day. This lot ? Fuck ‘em.
    We’ve seen minor parties soar and then collapse multiple times in recent years so it’s very much the form horse. The big two always make it back.

    SDP-Liberal alliance in 1983, going back to their constituencies and preparing for government. Dead by the end of the decade.

    Greens getting 15% in the Euros in 1989 then vanishing in a puff of smoke.

    Lib Dems threatening to break through the big two in 2010, reaching 30% in the polls during the Cleggasm. Actually went backwards in the election then almost wiped out 5 years later.

    UKIP hitting the mid teens in 2014/15 then a walking joke within a couple of years, then BXP threatening crossover with May’s tories only to fade again, and now Reform putting on 5% in a couple of months. Won’t last.
    But the Liberals/Alliance/LibDems have gone from having a pair of MPs to being a significant third (4th, 5th?) force in the country. The Greens have established themselves too. We're no longer a 2-party country.

    Of course, the big minor party success is the SNP, who are in government in Scotland.

    And the big two did change back in the 1930s.
    The liberals had been the governing party in living memory though, and always had a base in local government.

    If Reform were serious about becoming an electoral force (they’re not, they’re a pressure group) they would build up a regional base somewhere, get themselves councillors, do a good job on potholes and bin collections, and build from there.

    The greens have started to do this in local government. The SNP followed the rule book perfectly by getting themselves a very electorally efficient regional base. As have Plaid - they’ve found a concentrated base in a small number of seats.

    Unless you’re in a presidential system like France or a hyper-PR system like the Netherlands that’s your only option.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279


    Christopher Hope📝

    @christopherhope
    ·
    22m
    Is this idea that I reported on in January - to install Penny Mordaunt as Tory leader - about to happen? 👇
    Labour shadow ministers tell me privately they fear her the most.
    And she would be unlikely to be voted in by party members.
    So… this could be her best chance.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope

    This is so depressing. Mordaunt i imagine will be absolutely useless but shes got big tits so that will win her some votes from males of a certain type.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    ...

    Telegraph and Mail claim they have exclusive on Mordaunt.

    She'll beat Starmer.
    I like Mordaunt who has some appealing qualities. She is however completely useless. So you get rid of Sunak on grounds of inability. Why would you choose the same but a bit more relatable?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    TimS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I don't fear Mordaunt.

    She's another Tory mirage in the desert.

    I met her at a dinner a couple of years ago. She was nice enough, and fairly engaged in the evening’s conversation.
    We're you talking about cocks?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    It's a bit spiky. An explosion, arson, ink being dumped into ballot boxes.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    If the tories impose another unelected leader on us they deserve to be down to 10%.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    As already noted by ydoethur, Wm H. Taft never served as VP for Theodore Roosevelt, or any other POTUS.

    As for the OTHER Roosevelt's first VP, John Nance Garner, technically he did NOT run against FDR, as the President was never a declared candidate for re-re-election.

    AND am not sure whether or not JNG did or did not endorse his erstwhile boss in 1940 after the DNC; think maybe he issued a quite-proforma, way-less-than-hearty endorsement of sorts, perhaps for the Democratic ticket?

    Will let you know IF I find out!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    Nigelb said:
    "I'm loving angels instead. And thru it aaaaal, she offers me proteectionnn, a liddle lov and affection, when...*
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    And tried to cover it up with one lie after another, afterwards.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    It's a bit spiky. An explosion, arson, ink being dumped into ballot boxes.
    More democracy in Moscow than in the tory party though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    They were both only found to be guilty of one lockdown breach, and it was the same one
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    It's a bit spiky. An explosion, arson, ink being dumped into ballot boxes.
    Surprised there is room for ink given the quantity of ballot papers stuffed in.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    Not sure if I’m alone in this but I was completely unbothered by partygate. The least of Boris’ misdemeanours.

    What irritated me beyond belief were the lies about Brexit, the cavalier attitude to institutions and the rule of law, the tone deaf sheltering of grifters and sex pests in the party and the ever-flexible approach to conflicts of interest that started during his stint as mayor.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    FWIW I believe they are experimenting with electronic voting.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,988

    ...

    Telegraph and Mail claim they have exclusive on Mordaunt.

    She'll beat Starmer.
    Why? Is he too polite to call her Poundland Penny?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    FF43 said:

    ...

    Telegraph and Mail claim they have exclusive on Mordaunt.

    She'll beat Starmer.
    I like Mordaunt who has some appealing qualities. She is however completely useless. So you get rid of Sunak on grounds of inability. Why would you choose the same but a bit more relatable?
    Erm, I'm going for lack of choice.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    Mordaunt might be rubbish, but she is better at politics than Richi...

    https://x.com/markthehibby/status/1765708611093684429?s=20
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Ghedebrav said:

    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    TimS said:

    We should have had a further PB Prediction question: Tory RefUK cross-over date.

    I predict mid-April but failing that sometime w/c 6th May, after the Locals

    I don’t think it will happen. More than that, I don’t think the current Reform numbers are sustainable. They will drift back, and yes they’ll largely drift back to the conservatives.

    Why? Reform is an empty vessel. They are led by a nobody. They are not standing in local elections, have no meaningful policies, don’t really even have a coherent vision other than half arsed poujadisme and a sort of GBNews old bloke down the pub populism.

    I am calling, moonrabbit style, peak Reform. They’ll hover around the 12-14% mark in a few polls but come the locals they’ll start dying off. Same happened to BXP after the 2019 Euros when they were beaten in seat numbers by the Lib Dems.

    Con will rise quite rapidly from their current 23-26% to around 28-30%. Labour will tick up a tad to around 45%. LD will recover to 11%. Reform will settle on 8-9% among the favourable pollsters and 5-6% among the rest.
    Depends how and when they deploy their Tactical Nige, I think.

    Agree they may fade after the locals, but if they get Farage out as the face of the party (rather than Tice, who looks like a corrupt detective inspector from the East Midlands) they’ll get a sustainable boost.
    I'm curious as to whether and when Farage will join the fray. Time is passing and an opportunity to pressure the Tories from the Right is going begging.

    Is he simply not interested?
    He was at cheltenham today. I honestly dont think he cares.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    DavidL said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    AlsoLei said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    Boris, you mean?

    Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?

    Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.

    But we've tried turning the taps on.
    Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".

    And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives.
    Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.

    Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
    There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.

    The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
    How do you replicate the 2019 campaign? You can't Brexit twice, and if you could, the public would be against it this time!
    The general direction of patriotism plus limiting immigration plus economic support for the lower middle class.

    Plus the Tories won't face the general European economic slowdown next time.

    (a) I think that mischaracterises why the Tories won in 2019.

    (b) Limiting immigration will be popular with some voters, but the Tories' credibility on delivering such a promise is non-existent. The voters are once bitten, twice shy.

    (c) Economic support for the lower middle class, yes, could be a vote winner. Except again the party's credibility on this is poor.
    What is particularly disappointing, amongst a fairly large pool of disappointment, is the complete failure of the government to deliver on the levelling up agenda. That was a program that had genuine potential to address some of our long term structural problems, to change the political map of the UK by showing that the Tories really did care about the north of England and to boost our economic capacity going forward.

    And....nothing. The committee report on this this week was absolutely devastating. What a missed opportunity. What truly shocking politics. What ineptitude.
    Were you surprised? I wasn't.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    They were both only found to be guilty of one lockdown breach, and it was the same one
    But both of us know Rishi isn't a party animal whilst Johnson and Mrs Johnson treated Downing Street like the Hacienda.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    FWIW I believe they are experimenting with electronic voting.
    Presumably that's if you don't vote for Putin, you get electr(on)ic cables attached to your genitals.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Truman said:

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    It's a bit spiky. An explosion, arson, ink being dumped into ballot boxes.
    More democracy in Moscow than in the tory party though.
    How many letters need to go to the chair of the 1917 committee for Putin to face a leadership election?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    IanB2 said:

    Just happened to flip on TV, and one of the El Cheapo broadcast movie channels is re-running "The Longest Day".

    AND by pure happenstance, happened to catch one of my favorite scenes. The one where British have landed on Sword beach, and two Tommies (one played by Sean Connery) encounter a proper pukka beachmaster and his bulldog "Winston".

    Half-track is stalled, driver says he thinks because of water in the works.

    BM: "My grandmother used to say, anything mechanical won't work, give it a good wack!" (Or something like that). And proceeds to do just that, with his cane (or some kind of very hefty swagger stick.)

    Driver tries again, engine fires up, "Thank you, sir!" and off he goes.

    Private Connery turns to his chum, "Now that's a real man." "Yeah - and I like his dog too."

    BM: "Why are you two just standing there? This isn't Hyde Park Corner - the war's that way," pointing inland with his Big Stick. . . .

    And those early scenes with the German soldier on his horse, played by the actor who went on to become Goldfinger.
    By God, you are absolutely correct - yet I never cottoned on to that until your post!

    Puts the lie to the myth of the "good Wehrmacht"?
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    It's a bit spiky. An explosion, arson, ink being dumped into ballot boxes.
    Surprised there is room for ink given the quantity of ballot papers stuffed in.
    What a despicable slur about free and fair elections. And as for the elections in Moscow
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    Presumably an "exit poll" is being run on those brave enough to vote for the other guy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,897
    edited March 15
    AlsoLei said:

    Roger said:

    Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......

    But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?

    Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?

    Does Abbott want to be back in the fold? She sure doesn't act like it on twitter...
    If not she loses her seat which seems outrageously harsh for an ill thought out letter which was really nothing more than extremely clumsy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    Pro_Rata said:

    I don't fear Mordaunt.

    She's another Tory mirage in the desert.

    I think she will be a good LOTO. As long as she never has to run anything. But there is little to no chance of that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    TimS said:

    Truman said:

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    It's a bit spiky. An explosion, arson, ink being dumped into ballot boxes.
    More democracy in Moscow than in the tory party though.
    How many letters need to go to the chair of the 1917 committee for Putin to face a leadership election?
    Putin is officially running as an independent because his party isn’t popular.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    Truman said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    It's a bit spiky. An explosion, arson, ink being dumped into ballot boxes.
    Surprised there is room for ink given the quantity of ballot papers stuffed in.
    What a despicable slur about free and fair elections. And as for the elections in Moscow
    Yes? What about them?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    FWIW I believe they are experimenting with electronic voting.
    Maybe next time they might experiment with actually counting the ballots?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited March 15
    Roger said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Roger said:

    Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......

    But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?

    Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?

    Does Abbott want to be back in the fold? She sure doesn't act like it on twitter...
    If not she loses her seat which seems outrageously harsh for an ill thought out comment which was really nothing more than clumsy.
    It was much more than clumsy Roger, it was a total denial by glaring ommission of the Holocaust.

    Racism is black and white
    Tomiwa Owolade claims that Irish, Jewish and Traveller people all suffer from “racism” (“Racism in Britain is not a black and white issue. It’s far more complicated”, Comment). They undoubtedly experience prejudice. This is similar to racism and the two words are often used as if they are interchangeable.

    It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism. In pre-civil rights America, Irish people, Jewish people and Travellers were not required to sit at the back of the bus. In apartheid South Africa, these groups were allowed to vote. And at the height of slavery, there were no white-seeming people manacled on the slave ships.
    Diane Abbott
    House of Commons, London SW1
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Roger said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Roger said:

    Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......

    But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?

    Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?

    Does Abbott want to be back in the fold? She sure doesn't act like it on twitter...
    If not she loses her seat which seems outrageously harsh for an ill thought out letter which was really nothing more than extremely clumsy.
    She's been sailing rather close to the wind with regards antisemitism lately.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,773
    A reminder that Burnham came first in every single ward in GM at the last mayoral election - Hale, Bowdon, the Saddleworths, the Bramhalls, Bamford and Norden, Worsley... He has support across the spectrum.
    Also, Burnham hasn't been disowned by the Labour Party after trotting out conspiracy theory shit like their Rochdale candidate.

    File under "not worried".
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 15
    Roger said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Roger said:

    Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......

    But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?

    Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?

    Does Abbott want to be back in the fold? She sure doesn't act like it on twitter...
    If not she loses her seat which seems outrageously harsh for an ill thought out comment which was really nothing more than clumsy.
    Unless there's more to it than the stated grounds for her expulsion, Abbott has a good case that the Labour Party is treating her unfairly.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    TimS said:

    Truman said:

    DavidL said:

    is the voting in Moscow still "brisk"? Its a nail biter, right enough.

    It's a bit spiky. An explosion, arson, ink being dumped into ballot boxes.
    More democracy in Moscow than in the tory party though.
    How many letters need to go to the chair of the 1917 committee for Putin to face a leadership election?
    Its not that Putin is afraid of a leadership election its just that the suitable candidates have a habit of disappearing. Its all very strange.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    Has anyone got a sense of how many seats / councils the Tories could realistically lose in May assuming no general election? Will Reform be able to field a reasonable number of candidates?

    The 'May local election hammering' is now a predictable point prior to the election, but the narrative could differ depending on who is seen as the big winners of the night. I assume Labour and Lib Dems given local election history, but if I was Reform I would be doing all I can to use it as a springboard for the GE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    TimS said:

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    Not sure if I’m alone in this but I was completely unbothered by partygate. The least of Boris’ misdemeanours.

    What irritated me beyond belief were the lies about Brexit, the cavalier attitude to institutions and the rule of law, the tone deaf sheltering of grifters and sex pests in the party and the ever-flexible approach to conflicts of interest that started during his stint as mayor.
    Yep, I said as much at the time. All the faux outrage about people who never got to see their dying relatives frankly got on my tits. It was ridiculous.

    But the lying, jeez, you can't have a PM that lies like that. You have to be able to trust what they say at least most of the time (obviously invading third world countries is an exception) and it got to the point you could never believe anything he said. Stupid, stupid lies.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    AlsoLei said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    Boris, you mean?

    Turn the taps on, and ignore what people do in their personal lives?

    Honestly, it's a programme that, in theory, appeals to me. And I can absolutely see the argument that Isam has made about charisma - there are really no competitors to Boris on that particular field.

    But we've tried turning the taps on.
    Result: HS2 cancelled, NHS near collapse, "No compelling examples of what levelling up has delivered, watchdog finds".

    And we've tried ignoring what people do in their personal lives.
    Result: Tractor porn in parliament. Pincher. Transphobia. Banning tents. Weaponised culture war.

    Boris was elected with a huge majority in 2019 - but the Tory party since then have gone out of their way to repudiate everything that he stood for. Who could possibly trust them enough to vote for them again?
    There were two big declines in Tory polling since the huge majority. The first was Boris not following COVID rules. The second was Truss and her ridiculous budget.

    The lesson is clearly that the general thrust behind the 2019 campaign is the right one. You just need to do it with someone that has greater personal character than Boris.
    How do you replicate the 2019 campaign? You can't Brexit twice, and if you could, the public would be against it this time!
    The general direction of patriotism plus limiting immigration plus economic support for the lower middle class.

    Plus the Tories won't face the general European economic slowdown next time.

    (a) I think that mischaracterises why the Tories won in 2019.

    (b) Limiting immigration will be popular with some voters, but the Tories' credibility on delivering such a promise is non-existent. The voters are once bitten, twice shy.

    (c) Economic support for the lower middle class, yes, could be a vote winner. Except again the party's credibility on this is poor.
    What is particularly disappointing, amongst a fairly large pool of disappointment, is the complete failure of the government to deliver on the levelling up agenda. That was a program that had genuine potential to address some of our long term structural problems, to change the political map of the UK by showing that the Tories really did care about the north of England and to boost our economic capacity going forward.

    And....nothing. The committee report on this this week was absolutely devastating. What a missed opportunity. What truly shocking politics. What ineptitude.
    Were you surprised? I wasn't.
    I was disappointed. I think if Boris had remained a slightly better effort would have been made, if only because he is a lot more informed about how to win an election than the current lot. Rishi just didn't give a damn. If he had made that his priority instead of small boats he wouldn't be in quite such a hopeless position.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    AlsoLei said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    They were both only found to be guilty of one lockdown breach, and it was the same one
    Too many of us have our own experiences of lockdown to call upon for Boris to wheedle his way out on a technicality, though.

    For me, it was leaving my flat to take rubbish to the bins at the end of the street, and seeing a 70-something woman step out into the road to avoid me - and realising how genuinely terrified she was. I had stayed within the law, but had been generally disdainful of the guidelines, and had until then been leaving my flat two or three times a day, spending as much as two hours out of doors.

    But Boris had his flat in Camberwell, his flat in Downing St, a big garden, and a huge country house. And he still couldn't stick to the laws, let alone the guidelines.

    Fuck him. It's not like he was stuck indoors for 23 hours a day like the rest of us. He made the rules, he made the guidelines, and he couldn't be fucked to stay within either.

    Fuck. Him.

    Quibbling about cakes or ambushes or whatever does him no good. He was in charge. He broke his own rules. Fuck him.
    Also of course the govt advertising deliberately terrified people.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    ...

    Telegraph and Mail claim they have exclusive on Mordaunt.

    She'll beat Starmer.
    I like Mordaunt who has some appealing qualities. She is however completely useless. So you get rid of Sunak on grounds of inability. Why would you choose the same but a bit more relatable?
    Erm, I'm going for lack of choice.
    As Sherlock would say: When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, can only be Grant Shapps. He's your guy!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    Not sure if I’m alone in this but I was completely unbothered by partygate. The least of Boris’ misdemeanours.

    What irritated me beyond belief were the lies about Brexit, the cavalier attitude to institutions and the rule of law, the tone deaf sheltering of grifters and sex pests in the party and the ever-flexible approach to conflicts of interest that started during his stint as mayor.
    Yep, I said as much at the time. All the faux outrage about people who never got to see their dying relatives frankly got on my tits. It was ridiculous.

    But the lying, jeez, you can't have a PM that lies like that. You have to be able to trust what they say at least most of the time (obviously invading third world countries is an exception) and it got to the point you could never believe anything he said. Stupid, stupid lies.
    You could fairly accuse me of faux outrage, since I had no dying relatives though I felt very sorry for those who did, but I am surprised you dismiss the feelings of those who followed the rules and missed being with close relatives who were dying. I cannot see how their outrage can be dismissed as 'faux'.

    In any event, had he not lied the partying would not have brought him down. As the excellent C4 series has just reminded us, his lies over Pincher were what brought him down.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Roger said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Roger said:

    Maybe Labour need a bit of a shake up. Like most Labour supporters I've invested a lot of hope in Starmer and made the usual excuses when he seemed to be disappointing. Then when he became REALLY disappointing I could always remind myself that at least he wouldn't have given Suella a job or have even dreamt of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda.......

    But why can't he just for once do something because it's the right thing to do?

    Maybe like reinstating Diane Abbott without worrying what some some right wing editor might say?

    Does Abbott want to be back in the fold? She sure doesn't act like it on twitter...
    If not she loses her seat which seems outrageously harsh for an ill thought out letter which was really nothing more than extremely clumsy.
    She's been sailing rather close to the wind with regards antisemitism lately.
    Has she called for any MPs to be shot?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Truman said:

    AlsoLei said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    They were both only found to be guilty of one lockdown breach, and it was the same one
    Too many of us have our own experiences of lockdown to call upon for Boris to wheedle his way out on a technicality, though.

    For me, it was leaving my flat to take rubbish to the bins at the end of the street, and seeing a 70-something woman step out into the road to avoid me - and realising how genuinely terrified she was. I had stayed within the law, but had been generally disdainful of the guidelines, and had until then been leaving my flat two or three times a day, spending as much as two hours out of doors.

    But Boris had his flat in Camberwell, his flat in Downing St, a big garden, and a huge country house. And he still couldn't stick to the laws, let alone the guidelines.

    Fuck him. It's not like he was stuck indoors for 23 hours a day like the rest of us. He made the rules, he made the guidelines, and he couldn't be fucked to stay within either.

    Fuck. Him.

    Quibbling about cakes or ambushes or whatever does him no good. He was in charge. He broke his own rules. Fuck him.
    Also of course the govt advertising deliberately terrified people.
    No, it didn't. Our preprint on this should be out soon.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    https://x.com/bnonews/status/1768759641243054323

    United Airlines Boeing 737 makes emergency landing in Oregon after losing panel in mid-air

    image
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Penny, great hair and she does have a certain Moneypenny charm. And she can’t be any worse than Sunak and might actually help the Tories polling .

    She was however part of the leave campaign and lied like the rest of them which counts against her .
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    An absolutely vile woman verbally attacks
    @LeeAndersonMP_
    in the street, sample:

    "How come you're such a f**king w**ker?"

    https://x.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1768740967266320772?s=20
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    https://x.com/bnonews/status/1768759641243054323

    United Airlines Boeing 737 makes emergency landing in Oregon after losing panel in mid-air

    image

    Its notable how breaking news seems so appropriate for anything to do with Boeing.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AlsoLei said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Rishi determined to wait until they’re in single figures ?

    NEW POLL - Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 18%
    REFORM: 13%
    LIB: 10%
    GREEN: 7%
    SNP: 4%
    OTHER: 2%

    via @PeoplePolling, 07 Mar

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1768652854879731771

    Someone Baxtered this and it gives the Tories 24 seats and the LDs 48, IIRC

    The SNP get 22, so almost as many as the Tories
    Imagine if the Tories were the fourth party at Westminster. They wouldn’t even get a weekly question at PMQs!
    They are really paying for the disastrous choice of the unhinged libertarian Truss as PM. When in reality the opportunity to be socially and economically populist is the winning ticket.
    The original mistake was dumping Boris Johnson, and she had clean hands there unlike Sunak.
    The original mistake was Boris's breaking of lockdown rules. He had become untenable after that. But the Truss appointment made things a lot worse.
    If you want to go back that far then the mistake was making the lockdown rules too prescriptive instead of giving people some leeway to use their common sense.
    Rishi got fined the same as Boris, and he’s still PM
    Rishi was genuinely ambushed by cake. Johnson was Captain Lockdown -Party. There is no comparison.
    They were both only found to be guilty of one lockdown breach, and it was the same one
    Too many of us have our own experiences of lockdown to call upon for Boris to wheedle his way out on a technicality, though.

    For me, it was leaving my flat to take rubbish to the bins at the end of the street, and seeing a 70-something woman step out into the road to avoid me - and realising how genuinely terrified she was. I had stayed within the law, but had been generally disdainful of the guidelines, and had until then been leaving my flat two or three times a day, spending as much as two hours out of doors.

    But Boris had his flat in Camberwell, his flat in Downing St, a big garden, and a huge country house. And he still couldn't stick to the laws, let alone the guidelines.

    Fuck him. It's not like he was stuck indoors for 23 hours a day like the rest of us. He made the rules, he made the guidelines, and he couldn't be fucked to stay within either.

    Fuck. Him.

    Quibbling about cakes or ambushes or whatever does him no good. He was in charge. He broke his own rules. Fuck him.
    Unconvincing
This discussion has been closed.