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Is Greater Manchester ready for Mayor Galloway? – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 28,590
    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of grifters hetes joey barton begging for money so he can sue Jeremy Vine.
    Just in Genève Airport and checked the GFM. Overwhelmed by support. Thank you.

    Well over £5,000 now in the fund https://gofund.me/b9496caa

    Let’s teach this establishment mouthpiece a lesson.

    395 donations from the legends

    Whatever I get in the fund, I will match pound for pound with a donation to
    @AlderHey
    so they win regardless.

    https://x.com/Joey7Barton/status/1768685006623326496?s=20

    Only a middling example of a grift.

    Giveaways:
    Organised through gofundme through their 'Other' category, which is essentially freeform and gives no certainty about where the money is actually going
    Money is to provide "crucial support", not to cover legal fees
    Weird third person language: "In solidarity with Joey Barton's cause, we've..." - yet the organiser is supposedly Barton himself. Who is the money really going to?
    Not actually suing anyone - it's actually the fundraiser who's being sued. Why? And for what?

    I don't know who either of these two people are, and have no knowledge about whether Barton is or isn't a paedophile - but this fundraiser stinks.
    Shows how stupid many people are

    Joey Barton is being sued for libelling someone yet others are willing to give him money for his case because they don't understand what has actually occurred.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903

    https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351

    Keir Starmer appears on Kilroy in 1989 about acid house raves 😊 ✌🏻

    I don't care if I am accused of bias, SKS was a sexy man in his youth. NEIGH NEIGH!

    As a completely new poster you're unfortunately not usually liable to anything like a welcome back comment. I feel this is unfair and as you're new lets conduct an experiment and say "Welcome back" anyway.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,283
    New French poll has Le Pen’s party winning a majority in parliament.

    https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1768682648816201991

    image
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,452
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    At a time when some of PB debates whether wagyu or something else is the best beef, I'm finding myself wondering if school meals are climbing the agenda (warning: photos in first report are not for the sensitive):

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/13/how-difficult-is-it-to-bake-a-potato-head-hits-out-at-school-caterers-southampton

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/15/i-cant-make-them-eat-it-teachers-and-parents-share-concerns-over-school-lunches-in-england

    It is appalling.
    And such minuscule portions for growing teens.
    A sandwich. That is two slices of thin white bread with one slice of ham, cheese or a spoonful of tuna and a biscuit is one of the edible options.
    There are millions of voters whose kids are being treated like this.
    I was listening about this situation over the last couple of days whilst waking up and had one of those “if I had Bezos money…” thought processes start.

    I’ve always thought that there must be universal free school meals but not just lunch, breakfast too.

    I was lucky enough at school to be able to shovel down, every morning, endless cereal, a cooked breakfast of some variety and endless toast, tea, coffee, juice or milk. I had access to hot chocolate and biscuits at break in the winter and juice and biscuits in the summer and a solid hot lunch every day with a regular smorgasbord of choices in the evening.

    We absolutely ate like horses and weren’t getting fat because we were studying all day, playing sports, being young and growing our brains and bodies. We were very lucky that we had the fuel there. I find it very hard to accept that other kids don’t get even a tiny part of that and so as I said I believe there should be free school meals, breakfast and lunch, for every kid.

    But re the Bezos or Musk money I tried to think how it would work if I could say “I’m putting 50 billion into trust to cover the cost of this forever. Do you build kitchens and canteens for every school? Food trucks in the playground? Do you have one organisation doing the whole thing to achieve purchasing power? How do you cope with dietary requirements, religious rules, kids being picky kids as they will be naturally?

    I would love to have to find the solution but somehow it does need to be done.
    Not sure, but I suspect simpler is better.

    Most schools have the facilities to feed their pupils, albeit often on a split shift. And the marginal costs of going from feeding some to feeding all are smaller than the baseline cost of feeding anyone.

    Part of the problem is small-statery, "parents should be responsible for feeding their children" or (more reasonably) feeding children from wealthier families isn't a good priority for very limited resources.

    But also- who has responsibility for school meals being decent? The school, the PFI, the catering contractor? If everyone is responsible then nobody is responsible and we get this outcome.

    And even if a commercial organisation is more efficient than a school dinner lady, the current setup has a lot of middlemen taking a bite.
    It’s one of the things where I, as a small stater, would like the gov to step in and control. Feeding kids well is the best investment any government could make. Happy, healthy kids will behave better in class, achieve more, be less of a burden on the health system in the future and possibly (according to my non existent crime survey) less of a problem on society.

    We were discussing budget hotels the other week and someone mentioned a chain where they do a breakfast in a bag. Surely a gov backed entity could replicate that with gigantic buying power to ensure every sschool child in the uk starts the day, before the first lesson with a breakfast, some milk, juice, cereal and a roll of some sort. In a bag that’s waiting for them when they arrive.
    I suspect you don't even need a separate system. Just money and direction.

    (One of the "bloody hell" discoveries as a governor at a disadvantaged school was teachers buying packets of digestives so that children had something at the start of the day. Bet it's worse now.)
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of grifters hetes joey barton begging for money so he can sue Jeremy Vine.
    Just in Genève Airport and checked the GFM. Overwhelmed by support. Thank you.

    Well over £5,000 now in the fund https://gofund.me/b9496caa

    Let’s teach this establishment mouthpiece a lesson.

    395 donations from the legends

    Whatever I get in the fund, I will match pound for pound with a donation to
    @AlderHey
    so they win regardless.

    https://x.com/Joey7Barton/status/1768685006623326496?s=20

    Only a middling example of a grift.

    Giveaways:
    Organised through gofundme through their 'Other' category, which is essentially freeform and gives no certainty about where the money is actually going
    Money is to provide "crucial support", not to cover legal fees
    Weird third person language: "In solidarity with Joey Barton's cause, we've..." - yet the organiser is supposedly Barton himself. Who is the money really going to?
    Not actually suing anyone - it's actually the fundraiser who's being sued. Why? And for what?

    I don't know who either of these two people are, and have no knowledge about whether Barton is or isn't a paedophile - but this fundraiser stinks.
    It doesn't matter whether Barton is or isn't, he's accused Jeremy Vine of being one* and that's why he's being sued.

    * or maybe not - I assume his defence will be that "bike n***e" means something different to just "n***e"
    Ha, yes, so I see. So this is entirely the wrong way round, when compared to reality.

    Jeremy Vine seems to be a TV presenter, so trades on his public profile. If Barton has actually published that accusation, then it's fair that Vine should seek damages. It's certainly one of the less dreadful defamation cases I've read about.

    Barton's being rather disingenuous here. Makes the fundraiser look even more dodgy...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Apart from anything else, "grifter" is being so overused it is losing any impact, so you really should desist, and save it for actual grifters

    English has the richest vocabulary of any language on earth: exploit it!
    also it seems only to be applied to those on the right.
    Russell Brand used to be a grifter on the left but is now a grifter on the right. Left wing people tend to lack the entrepreneurial flair required for the role.
    Oh god, there's loads of them on twitter.

    People with between a fifty thousand and a million followers who post an endless stream of "Fuck the tories!", "What's your favourite biscuit? Mine's a bourbon!", "Boris is a wankmuffin!", "Send me money, and I'll pass it on to a charity!", "Here's a clip from BBC QT that proves that all Tories are shits!"...

    Grifters, all of them. Some are better at wheedling money out of their followers than others, but they're all on the take to some extent.
    Captain Tom’s family must be the greatest and most shameless grifters in history. Closely followed by “rachel from Swindon” and the son of “Harry’s last stand”. All on the left
    I hear that the Captain Tom charity have announced they are hoping that people will donate a pound for every spin Captain Tom makes in his grave.
    It’s centrism that doesn’t have many grifters, but that’s because they all have more lucrative gigs at multilateral institutions, FTSE 100 boards and charitable foundations.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Leon said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Apart from anything else, "grifter" is being so overused it is losing any impact, so you really should desist, and save it for actual grifters

    English has the richest vocabulary of any language on earth: exploit it!
    also it seems only to be applied to those on the right.
    Russell Brand used to be a grifter on the left but is now a grifter on the right. Left wing people tend to lack the entrepreneurial flair required for the role.
    Oh god, there's loads of them on twitter.

    People with between a fifty thousand and a million followers who post an endless stream of "Fuck the tories!", "What's your favourite biscuit? Mine's a bourbon!", "Boris is a wankmuffin!", "Send me money, and I'll pass it on to a charity!", "Here's a clip from BBC QT that proves that all Tories are shits!"...

    Grifters, all of them. Some are better at wheedling money out of their followers than others, but they're all on the take to some extent.
    Captain Tom’s family must be the greatest and most shameless grifters in history. Closely followed by “rachel from Swindon” and the son of “Harry’s last stand”. All on the left
    None of these come close to matching Donald Trump.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    edited March 15
    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    At a time when some of PB debates whether wagyu or something else is the best beef, I'm finding myself wondering if school meals are climbing the agenda (warning: photos in first report are not for the sensitive):

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/13/how-difficult-is-it-to-bake-a-potato-head-hits-out-at-school-caterers-southampton

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/15/i-cant-make-them-eat-it-teachers-and-parents-share-concerns-over-school-lunches-in-england

    I looked up today's menu for the students canteen in a random secondary school in Le Havre, Lycée Jules Siegfried:

    Mixed salad
    Turkey escalope or fish of the day with pilau rice and salsify with cream
    Selection of cheeses
    Pear and chocolate tart, yoghurt, dessert of the day or fruit
    French school dinners are a miracle. I’ve seen them in action. Proper good. No wonder they have pretty much the lowest childhood obesity rate in Europe.

    Contrast with austerity-hit so called Mediterranean diet countries like Italy and Greece where childhood fatness is nudging North American levels.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    AlsoLei said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of grifters hetes joey barton begging for money so he can sue Jeremy Vine.
    Just in Genève Airport and checked the GFM. Overwhelmed by support. Thank you.

    Well over £5,000 now in the fund https://gofund.me/b9496caa

    Let’s teach this establishment mouthpiece a lesson.

    395 donations from the legends

    Whatever I get in the fund, I will match pound for pound with a donation to
    @AlderHey
    so they win regardless.

    https://x.com/Joey7Barton/status/1768685006623326496?s=20

    Only a middling example of a grift.

    Giveaways:
    Organised through gofundme through their 'Other' category, which is essentially freeform and gives no certainty about where the money is actually going
    Money is to provide "crucial support", not to cover legal fees
    Weird third person language: "In solidarity with Joey Barton's cause, we've..." - yet the organiser is supposedly Barton himself. Who is the money really going to?
    Not actually suing anyone - it's actually the fundraiser who's being sued. Why? And for what?

    I don't know who either of these two people are, and have no knowledge about whether Barton is or isn't a paedophile - but this fundraiser stinks.
    It doesn't matter whether Barton is or isn't, he's accused Jeremy Vine of being one* and that's why he's being sued.

    * or maybe not - I assume his defence will be that "bike n***e" means something different to just "n***e"
    Ha, yes, so I see. So this is entirely the wrong way round, when compared to reality.

    Jeremy Vine seems to be a TV presenter, so trades on his public profile. If Barton has actually published that accusation, then it's fair that Vine should seek damages. It's certainly one of the less dreadful defamation cases I've read about.

    Barton's being rather disingenuous here. Makes the fundraiser look even more dodgy...
    What I didn’t get about the “fundraiser” was it read as - give me money to fight Jeremy Vine and I will give that money to Alder Hey.

    So the money isn’t going to fight JV but going to AH (a good thing).

    Therefore I’m assuming he wants donations from people who think “this money is fighting the man but helping kids so then Barton can say “look, I’ve raised a million from thousands who agree that I’m right”.

    So it’s cynical and shitty but hopefully the hospital at least benefits. Maybe he’s hoping that the hospital refuse the money because of where it comes from so he has a new crusade.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    TimS said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Apart from anything else, "grifter" is being so overused it is losing any impact, so you really should desist, and save it for actual grifters

    English has the richest vocabulary of any language on earth: exploit it!
    also it seems only to be applied to those on the right.
    Russell Brand used to be a grifter on the left but is now a grifter on the right. Left wing people tend to lack the entrepreneurial flair required for the role.
    Oh god, there's loads of them on twitter.

    People with between a fifty thousand and a million followers who post an endless stream of "Fuck the tories!", "What's your favourite biscuit? Mine's a bourbon!", "Boris is a wankmuffin!", "Send me money, and I'll pass it on to a charity!", "Here's a clip from BBC QT that proves that all Tories are shits!"...

    Grifters, all of them. Some are better at wheedling money out of their followers than others, but they're all on the take to some extent.
    Captain Tom’s family must be the greatest and most shameless grifters in history. Closely followed by “rachel from Swindon” and the son of “Harry’s last stand”. All on the left
    I hear that the Captain Tom charity have announced they are hoping that people will donate a pound for every spin Captain Tom makes in his grave.
    It’s centrism that doesn’t have many grifters, but that’s because they all have more lucrative gigs at multilateral institutions, FTSE 100 boards and charitable foundations.
    Or centrists don’t have any imagination…
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500

    https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351

    Keir Starmer appears on Kilroy in 1989 about acid house raves 😊 ✌🏻

    I don't care if I am accused of bias, SKS was a sexy man in his youth. NEIGH NEIGH!

    His taste in shirts has always been shit, then...
    Or was wearing a button down collar with a tie actually a thing in the 1980s?

    (Mandelson's recent criticism of Starmer was a bit off the mark, I think. It's not his weight, it's the weird casual-shirt-with-a-formal-jacket thing. But then, none of the Labour front bench are exactly stylish - see Moonrabbit's commentary on Labour Fringes. If anything, it adds to their authenticity...)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    This was released yesterday


    Quiet-STaR: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Think Before Speaking
    New Q* paper doubles LLM performance in mathematics


    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.09629.pdf
  • Omnium said:

    https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351

    Keir Starmer appears on Kilroy in 1989 about acid house raves 😊 ✌🏻

    I don't care if I am accused of bias, SKS was a sexy man in his youth. NEIGH NEIGH!

    As a completely new poster you're unfortunately not usually liable to anything like a welcome back comment. I feel this is unfair and as you're new lets conduct an experiment and say "Welcome back" anyway.
    You are very kind to say that, I feel very welcome here.

    *Horse neighs with a smile*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889

    New French poll has Le Pen’s party winning a majority in parliament.

    https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1768682648816201991

    image

    Significant swing from Melenchon's party as well as Macron's to Le Pen's party
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    AlsoLei said:

    https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351

    Keir Starmer appears on Kilroy in 1989 about acid house raves 😊 ✌🏻

    I don't care if I am accused of bias, SKS was a sexy man in his youth. NEIGH NEIGH!

    His taste in shirts has always been shit, then...
    Or was wearing a button down collar with a tie actually a thing in the 1980s?

    (Mandelson's recent criticism of Starmer was a bit off the mark, I think. It's not his weight, it's the weird casual-shirt-with-a-formal-jacket thing. But then, none of the Labour front bench are exactly stylish - see Moonrabbit's commentary on Labour Fringes. If anything, it adds to their authenticity...)
    The problem is that Starmer and Rayner keep asking staffers to “give the fashion advice to my seketary” and nobody knows what a “seketary” is and hence the outfits.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited March 15
    boulay said:

    AlsoLei said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of grifters hetes joey barton begging for money so he can sue Jeremy Vine.
    Just in Genève Airport and checked the GFM. Overwhelmed by support. Thank you.

    Well over £5,000 now in the fund https://gofund.me/b9496caa

    Let’s teach this establishment mouthpiece a lesson.

    395 donations from the legends

    Whatever I get in the fund, I will match pound for pound with a donation to
    @AlderHey
    so they win regardless.

    https://x.com/Joey7Barton/status/1768685006623326496?s=20

    Only a middling example of a grift.

    Giveaways:
    Organised through gofundme through their 'Other' category, which is essentially freeform and gives no certainty about where the money is actually going
    Money is to provide "crucial support", not to cover legal fees
    Weird third person language: "In solidarity with Joey Barton's cause, we've..." - yet the organiser is supposedly Barton himself. Who is the money really going to?
    Not actually suing anyone - it's actually the fundraiser who's being sued. Why? And for what?

    I don't know who either of these two people are, and have no knowledge about whether Barton is or isn't a paedophile - but this fundraiser stinks.
    It doesn't matter whether Barton is or isn't, he's accused Jeremy Vine of being one* and that's why he's being sued.

    * or maybe not - I assume his defence will be that "bike n***e" means something different to just "n***e"
    Ha, yes, so I see. So this is entirely the wrong way round, when compared to reality.

    Jeremy Vine seems to be a TV presenter, so trades on his public profile. If Barton has actually published that accusation, then it's fair that Vine should seek damages. It's certainly one of the less dreadful defamation cases I've read about.

    Barton's being rather disingenuous here. Makes the fundraiser look even more dodgy...
    What I didn’t get about the “fundraiser” was it read as - give me money to fight Jeremy Vine and I will give that money to Alder Hey.

    So the money isn’t going to fight JV but going to AH (a good thing).

    Therefore I’m assuming he wants donations from people who think “this money is fighting the man but helping kids so then Barton can say “look, I’ve raised a million from thousands who agree that I’m right”.

    So it’s cynical and shitty but hopefully the hospital at least benefits. Maybe he’s hoping that the hospital refuse the money because of where it comes from so he has a new crusade.
    Have a think about his possible income and the implications of him perhaps being a higher rate tax payer. It's not as simple as one pound for one pound.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    ...
    isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata FPT
    "I expect the swing back, I expect a small-mid sized working majority, but I don't see what we should be looking at to put the overall outcome in doubt."

    If Starmer fails to win a majority the factors we will point to, which in hindsight will seem obvious, are:
    1. Starmer's personal ratings, which are dire, and compare very badly to Blair or Cameron, the only two opposition leaders to become PM in the last 44 years.
    2. The small proportion of direct Tory-Labour switchers, compared to the number of don't knows and switchers to Reform.
    3. The strength of Tory data-driven, highly-targeted online campaigning, which is very poorly regulated compared to leaflet deliveries and billboard posters.
    4. The volatility in the electorate that makes a large campaign turnaround possible (when Starmer flunks it in the campaign).

    1. OK, if we say these ratings are a reverse of 2019, I'll admit the difference is that Boris was already PM where as Starmer is LOTO.

    2. Don't agree. If you look at 1997, direct switching was only at slightly higher levels, and indirect swing (notably abstainers) was at least an equal driver of the overall result.

    3. Possibly, but some of the novelty we saw in 2015, has worn off.

    4. There has been lots of volatility but, as of this point, we do appear to be in a more settled pattern and Starmer is risk averse. Maybe, though.

    Like Isam says, leader change is a possible wildcard, but here In think the Tories are trawling the barely tested and likely inadequate and it is as likely to work against c them as for them.
    But Isam is recommending Johnson. Tried, tested and rejected!
    Not rejected by the voters. He is their best shot, but it’s probably too late, and to improbable for him to be a runner now
    Rejected by this voter.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,067
    edited March 15
    Hornergate races along:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68576295

    "The woman who made accusations about Christian Horner's behaviour is to appeal against Red Bull's decision to dismiss her complaint."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Leon not infrequently comes over all Académie Française, when it comes to word use by anyone else but him.
    I think I might be the only person on here who is paid to use the English language, creatively, albeit in my second job? Might that not explain why I am particularly interested in it?

    We did have another writer, @Mysticrose?

    I miss her. She was fun. She was NOT me, btw
    Spoiler alert: @Mysticrose is you pal.

    PS there are some other published authors on here - one or two have mentioned when they have a new book out (e.g. MorrisDancer?).
    And I have a copy of "The Comprehensive Guide to Board Wargaming" by one Nicholas Palmer.
    Me too!

    I used to love hex based simulations. I still have my Squad Leader with expansions in the back of a cupboard, hidden safely from Mrs Foxy.
    I have Sealion, ditto!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    New French poll has Le Pen’s party winning a majority in parliament.

    https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1768682648816201991

    image

    I think Meloni turning out to be not a nazi has probably paved the way for Le Pen to become president. I do wonder what the future looks like for France with Le Pen in charge, she's firmly in Putin's pocket unlike Meloni.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,283
    HYUFD said:

    New French poll has Le Pen’s party winning a majority in parliament.

    https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1768682648816201991

    image

    Significant swing from Melenchon's party as well as Macron's to Le Pen's party
    The previous assumption was that even if Le Pen somehow won the presidency, she’d be neutered by having a parliament that was hostile, but this shows that she can win both.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    AlsoLei said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of grifters hetes joey barton begging for money so he can sue Jeremy Vine.
    Just in Genève Airport and checked the GFM. Overwhelmed by support. Thank you.

    Well over £5,000 now in the fund https://gofund.me/b9496caa

    Let’s teach this establishment mouthpiece a lesson.

    395 donations from the legends

    Whatever I get in the fund, I will match pound for pound with a donation to
    @AlderHey
    so they win regardless.

    https://x.com/Joey7Barton/status/1768685006623326496?s=20

    Only a middling example of a grift.

    Giveaways:
    Organised through gofundme through their 'Other' category, which is essentially freeform and gives no certainty about where the money is actually going
    Money is to provide "crucial support", not to cover legal fees
    Weird third person language: "In solidarity with Joey Barton's cause, we've..." - yet the organiser is supposedly Barton himself. Who is the money really going to?
    Not actually suing anyone - it's actually the fundraiser who's being sued. Why? And for what?

    I don't know who either of these two people are, and have no knowledge about whether Barton is or isn't a paedophile - but this fundraiser stinks.
    It doesn't matter whether Barton is or isn't, he's accused Jeremy Vine of being one* and that's why he's being sued.

    * or maybe not - I assume his defence will be that "bike n***e" means something different to just "n***e"
    Ha, yes, so I see. So this is entirely the wrong way round, when compared to reality.

    Jeremy Vine seems to be a TV presenter, so trades on his public profile. If Barton has actually published that accusation, then it's fair that Vine should seek damages. It's certainly one of the less dreadful defamation cases I've read about.

    Barton's being rather disingenuous here. Makes the fundraiser look even more dodgy...
    Not only did he publish it but he hasn't even deleted it yet.

    https://twitter.com/Joey7Barton/status/1744463617896980909?lang=en




  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    AlsoLei said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of grifters hetes joey barton begging for money so he can sue Jeremy Vine.
    Just in Genève Airport and checked the GFM. Overwhelmed by support. Thank you.

    Well over £5,000 now in the fund https://gofund.me/b9496caa

    Let’s teach this establishment mouthpiece a lesson.

    395 donations from the legends

    Whatever I get in the fund, I will match pound for pound with a donation to
    @AlderHey
    so they win regardless.

    https://x.com/Joey7Barton/status/1768685006623326496?s=20

    Only a middling example of a grift.

    Giveaways:
    Organised through gofundme through their 'Other' category, which is essentially freeform and gives no certainty about where the money is actually going
    Money is to provide "crucial support", not to cover legal fees
    Weird third person language: "In solidarity with Joey Barton's cause, we've..." - yet the organiser is supposedly Barton himself. Who is the money really going to?
    Not actually suing anyone - it's actually the fundraiser who's being sued. Why? And for what?

    I don't know who either of these two people are, and have no knowledge about whether Barton is or isn't a paedophile - but this fundraiser stinks.
    It doesn't matter whether Barton is or isn't, he's accused Jeremy Vine of being one* and that's why he's being sued.

    * or maybe not - I assume his defence will be that "bike n***e" means something different to just "n***e"
    Ha, yes, so I see. So this is entirely the wrong way round, when compared to reality.

    Jeremy Vine seems to be a TV presenter, so trades on his public profile. If Barton has actually published that accusation, then it's fair that Vine should seek damages. It's certainly one of the less dreadful defamation cases I've read about.

    Barton's being rather disingenuous here. Makes the fundraiser look even more dodgy...
    Anybody who is defamed has the right to seek damages, even if they don't trade on their public profile.

    I would imagine Barton will pay up rather than mount a defence on the grounds that "n***e" doesn't mean "n***e".

    Why did he do it? Did he misunderstand something when Vine was wrongly accused of being the person who turned out to be Huw Edwards? Or is he trying to get his name in the papers as Freddie Starr once did? Or maybe he's just the kind of idiot who calls people he dislikes "n***es"?

    Barton says on his GoFundMe page "Every contribution, no matter how small, serves as a beacon of hope in the pursuit of truth." WTF??? He has lied about Vine. He hasn't told the truth.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    edited March 15
    MaxPB said:

    New French poll has Le Pen’s party winning a majority in parliament.

    https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1768682648816201991

    image

    I think Meloni turning out to be not a nazi has probably paved the way for Le Pen to become president. I do wonder what the future looks like for France with Le Pen in charge, she's firmly in Putin's pocket unlike Meloni.
    Hasn't Le Pen recently made some quite Putin-skeptic remarks?

    I agree she is highly likely to be the next French prez. Probably won't have a very good relationship with lefty UK PM Keir Starmer

    Quite soon, the UK is going to be a total outlier, with a left wing government surrounded by rightwing or even hard/far right governments across the EU. Whither the Remoaners, then?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,991
    Leon said:

    This was released yesterday


    Quiet-STaR: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Think Before Speaking
    New Q* paper doubles LLM performance in mathematics


    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.09629.pdf

    I think you'll find it's just guessing the next word. There's nothing of note here. In my day we had to guess the next word by the end of Primary One or we'd be sent out in our vests to do a marathon of shame.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Foxy said:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/15/no-compelling-examples-of-what-levelling-up-has-delivered-watchdog-finds

    So, the PAC’s found that levelling up is a load of bollocks.

    Which isn’t surprising, really, given it’s nothing more than florid Johnsonian bullshit designed to delay the growing realisation amongst the working classes that, in choosing to believe the smorgasbord of unicornery fantasies peddled by the Leave camapaigns, they had in fact voted to make themselves, and the public services they hold so dear, poorer.

    Perfectly timed release on the day the hapless Sunak ventured North of Watford.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/sunak-hunt-visit-north-east-28820701

    The election campaign is going to be car crash after car crash. It will make May's 2017 campaign look slick, yet some expect swingback...

    Im looking forward to Sunak being confronted by some straight talking northerneres then laughing maniacally in their faces before ignoring them. Tories could be down to 15% by polling day.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,059
    TimS said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    At a time when some of PB debates whether wagyu or something else is the best beef, I'm finding myself wondering if school meals are climbing the agenda (warning: photos in first report are not for the sensitive):

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/13/how-difficult-is-it-to-bake-a-potato-head-hits-out-at-school-caterers-southampton

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/15/i-cant-make-them-eat-it-teachers-and-parents-share-concerns-over-school-lunches-in-england

    I looked up today's menu for the students canteen in a random secondary school in Le Havre, Lycée Jules Siegfried:

    Mixed salad
    Turkey escalope or fish of the day with pilau rice and salsify with cream
    Selection of cheeses
    Pear and chocolate tart, yoghurt, dessert of the day or fruit
    French school dinners are a miracle. I’ve seen them in action. Proper good. No wonder they have pretty much the lowest childhood obesity rate in Europe.

    Contrast with austerity-hit so called Mediterranean diet countries like Italy and Greece where childhood fatness is nudging North American levels.
    What are these furriners thinking about, providing healthy food? Can’t they provide cheap rubbish like us Brits, so that the food conglomerates can make excessive profits?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    TimS said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    At a time when some of PB debates whether wagyu or something else is the best beef, I'm finding myself wondering if school meals are climbing the agenda (warning: photos in first report are not for the sensitive):

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/13/how-difficult-is-it-to-bake-a-potato-head-hits-out-at-school-caterers-southampton

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/15/i-cant-make-them-eat-it-teachers-and-parents-share-concerns-over-school-lunches-in-england

    I looked up today's menu for the students canteen in a random secondary school in Le Havre, Lycée Jules Siegfried:

    Mixed salad
    Turkey escalope or fish of the day with pilau rice and salsify with cream
    Selection of cheeses
    Pear and chocolate tart, yoghurt, dessert of the day or fruit
    French school dinners are a miracle. I’ve seen them in action. Proper good. No wonder they have pretty much the lowest childhood obesity rate in Europe.

    Contrast with austerity-hit so called Mediterranean diet countries like Italy and Greece where childhood fatness is nudging North American levels.
    Presumably served on reasonable plates with tables and all? Not expanded polystyrene packs.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
    My hunch is that this is just a temporary spurt in terms of the long term route to real AI (rather less impressively it happened before in the 50s-70s). It appears to me that AI will become much much smarter than us before there's the spark of consciousness.

    AI is now thoughtful in a sense, but not completely.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Leon not infrequently comes over all Académie Française, when it comes to word use by anyone else but him.
    I think I might be the only person on here who is paid to use the English language, creatively, albeit in my second job? Might that not explain why I am particularly interested in it?

    We did have another writer, @Mysticrose?

    I miss her. She was fun. She was NOT me, btw
    Spoiler alert: @Mysticrose is you pal.

    PS there are some other published authors on here - one or two have mentioned when they have a new book out (e.g. MorrisDancer?).
    And I have a copy of "The Comprehensive Guide to Board Wargaming" by one Nicholas Palmer.
    Me too!

    I used to love hex based simulations. I still have my Squad Leader with expansions in the back of a cupboard, hidden safely from Mrs Foxy.
    It sold 100K copies in various editions, including an Italian one that someone did out of the blue - the publishers gave me and a friend a long weekend on the Adriatic in return for giving a couple of talks at a games convention. Subsequent books (The Best of Board Wargaming, Beyond the Arcade) did much less well and I got the message and hung up my pen.

    Still play lots of games online - mostly Through the Ages and Ark Nova on Boardgaming Online, plus rather an addictive little 4X game on https://np.ironhelmet.com/#landing . New game starting soon...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    This was released yesterday


    Quiet-STaR: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Think Before Speaking
    New Q* paper doubles LLM performance in mathematics


    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.09629.pdf

    I think you'll find it's just guessing the next word. There's nothing of note here. In my day we had to guess the next word by the end of Primary One or we'd be sent out in our vests to do a marathon of shame.
    But that is what LLMs do, they guess the next word. And, perhaps, that is all that humans do: we guess the next word. We do not have free will, it is an illusion, we are reflexive auto-complete machines, like the robots, but we like to think we aren't

    And the machines are getting better at being like us, and soon they will be better at being us, than us
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    New Scottish vocabulary: "the hate monster"

    https://www.scotland.police.uk/advice-and-information/hate-crime/hate-monster-campaign/

    The Hate Monster, represents that feeling some people get when they are frustrated and angry and take it out on others, because they feel like they need to show they are better than them. In other words, they commit a hate crime.

    The Hate Monster loves it when you get angry. He weighs you down till you end up targeting someone, just because they look or act different to you.

    When you’re feeling insecure or angry, the Hate Monster feeds on that.

    We know that young men aged 18-30 are most likely to commit hate crime, particularly those from socially excluded communities who are heavily influenced by their peers.

    They may have deep-rooted feelings of being socially and economically disadvantaged, combined with ideas about white-male entitlement.

    All young people think that the universe owes them more - that it's unfair how things are.... that things need to change.

    I rather think it is wired in. Part of how human society works. And one of the reasons for it's advancement, over the years.
    Let us transpose this sentence to

    They may have deep-rooted feelings of being socially and economically disadvantaged, combined with ideas about black-male entitlement.
    or
    They may have deep-rooted feelings of being socially and economically disadvantaged, combined with ideas about female entitlement.

    Doesnt sound so hot now does it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    Omnium said:

    https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351

    Keir Starmer appears on Kilroy in 1989 about acid house raves 😊 ✌🏻

    I don't care if I am accused of bias, SKS was a sexy man in his youth. NEIGH NEIGH!

    As a completely new poster you're unfortunately not usually liable to anything like a welcome back comment. I feel this is unfair and as you're new lets conduct an experiment and say "Welcome back" anyway.
    You are very kind to say that, I feel very welcome here.

    *Horse neighs with a smile*
    Soon be Correctlybatteredhorse5 no doubt 😏

    Just don’t post the N Word. You have been warned.

    nonilfenossipolietilenossietanolo is an instant ban from this site.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,991
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
    (Not to take away from the overall theme - but the new AI coder is terrible. There are way better ones in the open source world. But the one that's been getting all the hype looks like a dodgy-af money-pit)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    Truman said:

    Foxy said:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/15/no-compelling-examples-of-what-levelling-up-has-delivered-watchdog-finds

    So, the PAC’s found that levelling up is a load of bollocks.

    Which isn’t surprising, really, given it’s nothing more than florid Johnsonian bullshit designed to delay the growing realisation amongst the working classes that, in choosing to believe the smorgasbord of unicornery fantasies peddled by the Leave camapaigns, they had in fact voted to make themselves, and the public services they hold so dear, poorer.

    Perfectly timed release on the day the hapless Sunak ventured North of Watford.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/sunak-hunt-visit-north-east-28820701

    The election campaign is going to be car crash after car crash. It will make May's 2017 campaign look slick, yet some expect swingback...

    Im looking forward to Sunak being confronted by some straight talking northerneres then laughing maniacally in their faces before ignoring them. Tories could be down to 15% by polling day.
    It will be amazing to see how he copes with northerners, being Mp for Richmond in Yorkshire I guess he’s never met any northerners.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Norfolk 1, Apple 0

    "Apple has agreed to pay $490m (£385m) to settle a lawsuit led by Norfolk County Council.

    The class action alleged the tech giant's boss, Tim Cook, defrauded shareholders by covering up lower demand for iPhones in China."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68580235
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    edited March 15
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
    My hunch is that this is just a temporary spurt in terms of the long term route to real AI (rather less impressively it happened before in the 50s-70s). It appears to me that AI will become much much smarter than us before there's the spark of consciousness.

    AI is now thoughtful in a sense, but not completely.
    Yes, that's quite possible. Just as no one predicted this insane surge in AI development, no one can predict when or if it will end. It could end tomorrow for some weird reason we do not perceive - we run out of compute, an AI goes rogue and everyone pulls the plugs?

    One glance at the so-called experts shows that they don't have much of a clue either, from Yan LeCun to Geoff Hinton, from Musk to Kurzweil, they are all guessing

    This guy is interesting. He's NOT a world expert, he just plots developments on a graph, which looks quite plausible (but pinch of salt, etc)

    His graph is saying AGI by November of this year

    https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    MaxPB said:

    New French poll has Le Pen’s party winning a majority in parliament.

    https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1768682648816201991

    image

    I think Meloni turning out to be not a nazi has probably paved the way for Le Pen to become president. I do wonder what the future looks like for France with Le Pen in charge, she's firmly in Putin's pocket unlike Meloni.
    You tend to have the reverse to what happens in the UK . In France older voters are much more pro EU and anti the far right and as we’ve seen they vote in higher numbers .

    As long as it’s not the far left v far right in the run off then I don’t see Le Pen winning .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Leon not infrequently comes over all Académie Française, when it comes to word use by anyone else but him.
    I think I might be the only person on here who is paid to use the English language, creatively, albeit in my second job? Might that not explain why I am particularly interested in it?

    We did have another writer, @Mysticrose?

    I miss her. She was fun. She was NOT me, btw
    Spoiler alert: @Mysticrose is you pal.

    PS there are some other published authors on here - one or two have mentioned when they have a new book out (e.g. MorrisDancer?).
    And I have a copy of "The Comprehensive Guide to Board Wargaming" by one Nicholas Palmer.
    Me too!

    I used to love hex based simulations. I still have my Squad Leader with expansions in the back of a cupboard, hidden safely from Mrs Foxy.
    It sold 100K copies in various editions, including an Italian one that someone did out of the blue - the publishers gave me and a friend a long weekend on the Adriatic in return for giving a couple of talks at a games convention. Subsequent books (The Best of Board Wargaming, Beyond the Arcade) did much less well and I got the message and hung up my pen.

    Still play lots of games online - mostly Through the Ages and Ark Nova on Boardgaming Online, plus rather an addictive little 4X game on https://np.ironhelmet.com/#landing . New game starting soon...
    100k is REALLY impressive! Many many pro writers never get anywhere near that, for a single book. Bravo
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    boulay said:

    Truman said:

    Foxy said:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/15/no-compelling-examples-of-what-levelling-up-has-delivered-watchdog-finds

    So, the PAC’s found that levelling up is a load of bollocks.

    Which isn’t surprising, really, given it’s nothing more than florid Johnsonian bullshit designed to delay the growing realisation amongst the working classes that, in choosing to believe the smorgasbord of unicornery fantasies peddled by the Leave camapaigns, they had in fact voted to make themselves, and the public services they hold so dear, poorer.

    Perfectly timed release on the day the hapless Sunak ventured North of Watford.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/sunak-hunt-visit-north-east-28820701

    The election campaign is going to be car crash after car crash. It will make May's 2017 campaign look slick, yet some expect swingback...

    Im looking forward to Sunak being confronted by some straight talking northerneres then laughing maniacally in their faces before ignoring them. Tories could be down to 15% by polling day.
    It will be amazing to see how he copes with northerners, being Mp for Richmond in Yorkshire I guess he’s never met any northerners.
    Richmond isnt the true North though. Its a poncey enclave in North Yorkshire im talking about real northerners from places like rotherham.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,991
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    This was released yesterday


    Quiet-STaR: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Think Before Speaking
    New Q* paper doubles LLM performance in mathematics


    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.09629.pdf

    I think you'll find it's just guessing the next word. There's nothing of note here. In my day we had to guess the next word by the end of Primary One or we'd be sent out in our vests to do a marathon of shame.
    But that is what LLMs do, they guess the next word. And, perhaps, that is all that humans do: we guess the next word. We do not have free will, it is an illusion, we are reflexive auto-complete machines, like the robots, but we like to think we aren't

    And the machines are getting better at being like us, and soon they will be better at being us, than us
    It's becoming more apparent that's not all that LLM's do. The work going into probing the inner representations some of these models have is quite eye-opening.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    AlsoLei said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of grifters hetes joey barton begging for money so he can sue Jeremy Vine.
    Just in Genève Airport and checked the GFM. Overwhelmed by support. Thank you.

    Well over £5,000 now in the fund https://gofund.me/b9496caa

    Let’s teach this establishment mouthpiece a lesson.

    395 donations from the legends

    Whatever I get in the fund, I will match pound for pound with a donation to
    @AlderHey
    so they win regardless.

    https://x.com/Joey7Barton/status/1768685006623326496?s=20

    Only a middling example of a grift.

    Giveaways:
    Organised through gofundme through their 'Other' category, which is essentially freeform and gives no certainty about where the money is actually going
    Money is to provide "crucial support", not to cover legal fees
    Weird third person language: "In solidarity with Joey Barton's cause, we've..." - yet the organiser is supposedly Barton himself. Who is the money really going to?
    Not actually suing anyone - it's actually the fundraiser who's being sued. Why? And for what?

    I don't know who either of these two people are, and have no knowledge about whether Barton is or isn't a paedophile - but this fundraiser stinks.
    It doesn't matter whether Barton is or isn't, he's accused Jeremy Vine of being one* and that's why he's being sued.

    * or maybe not - I assume his defence will be that "bike n***e" means something different to just "n***e"
    Ha, yes, so I see. So this is entirely the wrong way round, when compared to reality.

    Jeremy Vine seems to be a TV presenter, so trades on his public profile. If Barton has actually published that accusation, then it's fair that Vine should seek damages. It's certainly one of the less dreadful defamation cases I've read about.

    Barton's being rather disingenuous here. Makes the fundraiser look even more dodgy...
    What I didn’t get about the “fundraiser” was it read as - give me money to fight Jeremy Vine and I will give that money to Alder Hey.

    So the money isn’t going to fight JV but going to AH (a good thing).

    Therefore I’m assuming he wants donations from people who think “this money is fighting the man but helping kids so then Barton can say “look, I’ve raised a million from thousands who agree that I’m right”.

    So it’s cynical and shitty but hopefully the hospital at least benefits. Maybe he’s hoping that the hospital refuse the money because of where it comes from so he has a new crusade.
    Have a think about his possible income and the implications of him perhaps being a higher rate tax payer. It's not as simple as one pound for one pound.
    All comes right on their next tax return, when the fundraiser is declared as income and higher rate gift aid is claimed on the subsequent donation.

    Oh, what's that? They didn't declare the fundraiser on their tax return? Ah. Oh dear....

    It's the "send it to my Paypal, I'll pass it along..." donations that are the worst offenders here, with Patreon and Ko-fi not far behind. Justgiving does at least give a bit more transparency, although things become rather woolly with the "Other" category being used by Barton.

    Best practice for fundraising for legal fees is to use Crowdjustice, where the funds go directly into the solicitor's client account.

    But this Barton thing is, as you say, blurring the lines between charitable donation and legal fees - and the wording is so confused that you can't be sure that the money isn't just ending up in someone's pocket.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Breaking News - US federal district judge has just ordered major revision of WA State legislative boundaries for upcoming August 2024 primary and November general election, to rectify denial of representation to Latino voters in the Yakima Valley (mostly) of Eastern WA.

    Judge Lasnik has ruled in favor of plaintiff's map, favored by Democrats and against Republican alternative, based on evidence presented during court proceedings via dueling-expert testimony and map-making.

    Major changes to two legislative districts (each electing one state senator and two state representatives) and minor alternations to eleven other LDs, to ensure that all 49 districts have equal populations based on 2020 Census and otherwise comply with redistricting requirements under state AND federal law.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    New French poll has Le Pen’s party winning a majority in parliament.

    https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1768682648816201991

    image

    I think Meloni turning out to be not a nazi has probably paved the way for Le Pen to become president. I do wonder what the future looks like for France with Le Pen in charge, she's firmly in Putin's pocket unlike Meloni.
    Hasn't Le Pen recently made some quite Putin-skeptic remarks?

    I agree she is highly likely to be the next French prez. Probably won't have a very good relationship with lefty UK PM Keir Starmer

    Quite soon, the UK is going to be a total outlier, with a left wing government surrounded by rightwing or even hard/far right governments across the EU. Whither the Remoaners, then?
    Indeed and if the conservatives are weak I think the far right will try and seize their chance. Conditions couldnt be better for them and who knows the likes of Putin may give them a helping hand.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    This was released yesterday


    Quiet-STaR: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Think Before Speaking
    New Q* paper doubles LLM performance in mathematics


    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.09629.pdf

    I think you'll find it's just guessing the next word. There's nothing of note here. In my day we had to guess the next word by the end of Primary One or we'd be sent out in our vests to do a marathon of shame.
    But that is what LLMs do, they guess the next word. And, perhaps, that is all that humans do: we guess the next word. We do not have free will, it is an illusion, we are reflexive auto-complete machines, like the robots, but we like to think we aren't

    And the machines are getting better at being like us, and soon they will be better at being us, than us
    It's becoming more apparent that's not all that LLM's do. The work going into probing the inner representations some of these models have is quite eye-opening.
    Interesting! Links?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
    My hunch is that this is just a temporary spurt in terms of the long term route to real AI (rather less impressively it happened before in the 50s-70s). It appears to me that AI will become much much smarter than us before there's the spark of consciousness.

    AI is now thoughtful in a sense, but not completely.
    Yes, that's quite possible. Just as no one predicted this insane surge in AI development, no one can predict when or if it will end. It could end tomorrow for some weird reason we do not perceive - we run out of compute, an AI goes rogue and everyone pulls the plugs?

    One glance at the so-called experts shows that they don't have much of a clue either, from Yan LeCun to Geoff Hinton, from Musk to Kurzweil, they are all guessing

    This guy is interesting. He's NOT a world expert, he just plots developments on a graph, which looks quite plausible (but pinch of salt, etc)

    His graph is saying AGI by November of this year

    https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/
    What's really weird is that as AI gets better and wiser, and as we look more pedestrian in terms of wits, the possibility that there really is something outside of current physics which underpins our consciousness increases.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Yet more (alleged) grifting - conjobbing - whatever you call it?

    Washington Post (via Seattle Times) - Ginsburg family blasts plan to give RBG Award to Musk, Murdoch, others

    The family of the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg and some of the Supreme Court justice’s former colleagues have denounced this year’s slate of honorees for an award that a philanthropic foundation bestows in the name of the liberal icon.

    In a statement Friday, the family called the Dwight D. Opperman Foundation’s plans to give its “Ruth Bader Ginsburg Leadership Award” to conservative billionaires Elon Musk and Rupert Murdoch, among others, “an affront to the memory of our mother and grandmother.”

    Without specifically criticizing any of the honorees — who also include Martha Stewart, Sylvester Stallone and financier Michael Milken — the Ginsburg family said the foundation “has strayed far from the original mission of the award and from what Justice Ginsburg stood for.” . . .

    Ginsburg, a friend of the late Dwight Opperman, a lawyer and legal publisher, was still alive and gave her approval when his family’s foundation decided in 2019 to create an award in her name for powerful WOMEN [my emphasis - ssi].

    The Ginsburgs said they had no involvement in selecting winners and weren’t given prior notice about the award changes, and added that Friday — what would’ve been the justice’s 91st birthday — would be the perfect day for the foundation to course correct. . . .

    SSI - So Elon Musk and Rupert Murdoch are now "powerful women"? Somebody notify Cyclefree!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    That's brilliant. Here's another one.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/nmHzvQr3kYE?si=gA0eVxekiCexTmCl
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391

    Omnium said:

    https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351

    Keir Starmer appears on Kilroy in 1989 about acid house raves 😊 ✌🏻

    I don't care if I am accused of bias, SKS was a sexy man in his youth. NEIGH NEIGH!

    As a completely new poster you're unfortunately not usually liable to anything like a welcome back comment. I feel this is unfair and as you're new lets conduct an experiment and say "Welcome back" anyway.
    You are very kind to say that, I feel very welcome here.

    *Horse neighs with a smile*
    Soon be Correctlybatteredhorse5 no doubt 😏

    Just don’t post the N Word. You have been warned.

    nonilfenossipolietilenossietanolo is an instant ban from this site.
    How about Prisencolinensinainciusol ?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
    My hunch is that this is just a temporary spurt in terms of the long term route to real AI (rather less impressively it happened before in the 50s-70s). It appears to me that AI will become much much smarter than us before there's the spark of consciousness.

    AI is now thoughtful in a sense, but not completely.
    People have been panicking about a second AI Winter for the past decade, but it hasn't happened (yet...)

    I do agree, though, about AI becoming much smarter than us - by at least some metrics - before AGI is achieved.

    Indeed, that's already happened - look at how earlier generations of tech achieved supremacy over humans at Chess, and then Go. Expect plenty more "computers will never do that" certainties to be destroyed before AGI becomes a reality.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,991
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    This was released yesterday


    Quiet-STaR: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Think Before Speaking
    New Q* paper doubles LLM performance in mathematics


    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.09629.pdf

    I think you'll find it's just guessing the next word. There's nothing of note here. In my day we had to guess the next word by the end of Primary One or we'd be sent out in our vests to do a marathon of shame.
    But that is what LLMs do, they guess the next word. And, perhaps, that is all that humans do: we guess the next word. We do not have free will, it is an illusion, we are reflexive auto-complete machines, like the robots, but we like to think we aren't

    And the machines are getting better at being like us, and soon they will be better at being us, than us
    It's becoming more apparent that's not all that LLM's do. The work going into probing the inner representations some of these models have is quite eye-opening.
    Interesting! Links?
    Don't have the papers to hand, but the first one that caught my eye was about an LLM being fed Othello moves and another analysing the steps a diffusion model used to generate "it's" idea of depth and focus in a 3D space. Very quick post friday-night-gin-o-clock google gives some pointers to :

    https://adamkarvonen.github.io/machine_learning/2024/01/03/chess-world-models.html

    https://yc015.github.io/scene-representation-diffusion-model/ (the first image in there gives a sense of the model having an 'idea' of 3D depth despite not being trained on it)

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited March 15
    @rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.

    Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651
    TimS said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Apart from anything else, "grifter" is being so overused it is losing any impact, so you really should desist, and save it for actual grifters

    English has the richest vocabulary of any language on earth: exploit it!
    also it seems only to be applied to those on the right.
    Russell Brand used to be a grifter on the left but is now a grifter on the right. Left wing people tend to lack the entrepreneurial flair required for the role.
    Oh god, there's loads of them on twitter.

    People with between a fifty thousand and a million followers who post an endless stream of "Fuck the tories!", "What's your favourite biscuit? Mine's a bourbon!", "Boris is a wankmuffin!", "Send me money, and I'll pass it on to a charity!", "Here's a clip from BBC QT that proves that all Tories are shits!"...

    Grifters, all of them. Some are better at wheedling money out of their followers than others, but they're all on the take to some extent.
    Captain Tom’s family must be the greatest and most shameless grifters in history. Closely followed by “rachel from Swindon” and the son of “Harry’s last stand”. All on the left
    I hear that the Captain Tom charity have announced they are hoping that people will donate a pound for every spin Captain Tom makes in his grave.
    It’s centrism that doesn’t have many grifters, but that’s because they all have more lucrative gigs at multilateral institutions, FTSE 100 boards and charitable foundations.
    The Davos Grift!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,901
    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    That's brilliant. Here's another one.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/nmHzvQr3kYE?si=gA0eVxekiCexTmCl
    The first one missed that dirty crocks need a wash, but impressive.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    viewcode said:

    Omnium said:

    https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351

    Keir Starmer appears on Kilroy in 1989 about acid house raves 😊 ✌🏻

    I don't care if I am accused of bias, SKS was a sexy man in his youth. NEIGH NEIGH!

    As a completely new poster you're unfortunately not usually liable to anything like a welcome back comment. I feel this is unfair and as you're new lets conduct an experiment and say "Welcome back" anyway.
    You are very kind to say that, I feel very welcome here.

    *Horse neighs with a smile*
    Soon be Correctlybatteredhorse5 no doubt 😏

    Just don’t post the N Word. You have been warned.

    nonilfenossipolietilenossietanolo is an instant ban from this site.
    How about Prisencolinensinainciusol ?
    Great song
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    That's brilliant. Here's another one.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/nmHzvQr3kYE?si=gA0eVxekiCexTmCl
    The first one missed that dirty crocks need a wash, but impressive.
    In case Leon is getting excited.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/kWePYEdVbhc?si=GMp52Zs02V9J_Tc6
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    Great. Now I've learned about Roko's Basilisk and I'm fucked
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
    My hunch is that this is just a temporary spurt in terms of the long term route to real AI (rather less impressively it happened before in the 50s-70s). It appears to me that AI will become much much smarter than us before there's the spark of consciousness.

    AI is now thoughtful in a sense, but not completely.
    Yes, that's quite possible. Just as no one predicted this insane surge in AI development, no one can predict when or if it will end. It could end tomorrow for some weird reason we do not perceive - we run out of compute, an AI goes rogue and everyone pulls the plugs?

    One glance at the so-called experts shows that they don't have much of a clue either, from Yan LeCun to Geoff Hinton, from Musk to Kurzweil, they are all guessing

    This guy is interesting. He's NOT a world expert, he just plots developments on a graph, which looks quite plausible (but pinch of salt, etc)

    His graph is saying AGI by November of this year

    https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/
    What's really weird is that as AI gets better and wiser, and as we look more pedestrian in terms of wits, the possibility that there really is something outside of current physics which underpins our consciousness increases.
    Oh, I know this is true

    Take ayahuasca and you will have no doubt. Death is not the end, consciousness is deeply woven into the multiverse, everything is far far weirder than we know, or can know. We can only intuit
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500

    Norfolk 1, Apple 0

    "Apple has agreed to pay $490m (£385m) to settle a lawsuit led by Norfolk County Council.

    The class action alleged the tech giant's boss, Tim Cook, defrauded shareholders by covering up lower demand for iPhones in China."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68580235

    That's Norfolk, VA... right?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Leon not infrequently comes over all Académie Française, when it comes to word use by anyone else but him.
    I think I might be the only person on here who is paid to use the English language, creatively, albeit in my second job? Might that not explain why I am particularly interested in it?

    We did have another writer, @Mysticrose?

    I miss her. She was fun. She was NOT me, btw
    Spoiler alert: @Mysticrose is you pal.

    PS there are some other published authors on here - one or two have mentioned when they have a new book out (e.g. MorrisDancer?).
    And I have a copy of "The Comprehensive Guide to Board Wargaming" by one Nicholas Palmer.
    Me too!

    I used to love hex based simulations. I still have my Squad Leader with expansions in the back of a cupboard, hidden safely from Mrs Foxy.
    It sold 100K copies in various editions, including an Italian one that someone did out of the blue - the publishers gave me and a friend a long weekend on the Adriatic in return for giving a couple of talks at a games convention. Subsequent books (The Best of Board Wargaming, Beyond the Arcade) did much less well and I got the message and hung up my pen.

    Still play lots of games online - mostly Through the Ages and Ark Nova on Boardgaming Online, plus rather an addictive little 4X game on https://np.ironhelmet.com/#landing . New game starting soon...
    100k is REALLY impressive! Many many pro writers never get anywhere near that, for a single book. Bravo
    I remember several years ago there (rightly) was a big fuss about the publication of Oryx and Crake. The first Atwood for some time and An Event. With great fanfare it was duly published and entered the Sunday Times best seller charts at No.1.

    It had sold around three and a half thousand copies.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
    My hunch is that this is just a temporary spurt in terms of the long term route to real AI (rather less impressively it happened before in the 50s-70s). It appears to me that AI will become much much smarter than us before there's the spark of consciousness.

    AI is now thoughtful in a sense, but not completely.
    Yes, that's quite possible. Just as no one predicted this insane surge in AI development, no one can predict when or if it will end. It could end tomorrow for some weird reason we do not perceive - we run out of compute, an AI goes rogue and everyone pulls the plugs?

    One glance at the so-called experts shows that they don't have much of a clue either, from Yan LeCun to Geoff Hinton, from Musk to Kurzweil, they are all guessing

    This guy is interesting. He's NOT a world expert, he just plots developments on a graph, which looks quite plausible (but pinch of salt, etc)

    His graph is saying AGI by November of this year

    https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/
    What's really weird is that as AI gets better and wiser, and as we look more pedestrian in terms of wits, the possibility that there really is something outside of current physics which underpins our consciousness increases.
    Oh, I know this is true

    Take ayahuasca and you will have no doubt. Death is not the end, consciousness is deeply woven into the multiverse, everything is far far weirder than we know, or can know. We can only intuit
    I really doubt that, but AI is starting to hint that you may be right. There seems to be something we're missing in our picture anyway. Our blobs of biological brain seem unlikely to be doing great marvels whilst outstripped comprehensibly otherwise.

    Somethings going on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    That's brilliant. Here's another one.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/nmHzvQr3kYE?si=gA0eVxekiCexTmCl
    The first one missed that dirty crocks need a wash, but impressive.
    In case Leon is getting excited.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/kWePYEdVbhc?si=GMp52Zs02V9J_Tc6
    Are you claiming that the OpenAI robot is fake?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,123
    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    De nada

    The amazing thing (OK one of the many amazing things) about AI development right now is that there are extraordinary developments EVERY DAY

    eg This one slipped by most people. Two days ago DeepMind announced a new model which probably ends esports and has tons of other implications

    "SIMA points to a future of gaming where AI agents could play a key role.

    It also takes us a step closer to AI which can intelligently collaborate with humans not only in games, but also in doing tasks in real-world environments.
    @bijin_jose
    explains:"

    https://x.com/ieexplained/status/1768585312949932108?s=20

    It went unnoticed because there have been several other massive revelations this week - such as that robot from OpenAI and the new AI code-writer, and others

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve of technological development. It is, for the moment, SPEEDING UP
    My hunch is that this is just a temporary spurt in terms of the long term route to real AI (rather less impressively it happened before in the 50s-70s). It appears to me that AI will become much much smarter than us before there's the spark of consciousness.

    AI is now thoughtful in a sense, but not completely.
    People have been panicking about a second AI Winter for the past decade, but it hasn't happened (yet...)

    I do agree, though, about AI becoming much smarter than us - by at least some metrics - before AGI is achieved.

    Indeed, that's already happened - look at how earlier generations of tech achieved supremacy over humans at Chess, and then Go. Expect plenty more "computers will never do that" certainties to be destroyed before AGI becomes a reality.
    {Wintermute has entered the chat}
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    Great. Now I've learned about Roko's Basilisk and I'm fucked

    Sounds like a budget Black Mirror episode.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    edited March 15
    Truman said:

    Foxy said:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/15/no-compelling-examples-of-what-levelling-up-has-delivered-watchdog-finds

    So, the PAC’s found that levelling up is a load of bollocks.

    Which isn’t surprising, really, given it’s nothing more than florid Johnsonian bullshit designed to delay the growing realisation amongst the working classes that, in choosing to believe the smorgasbord of unicornery fantasies peddled by the Leave camapaigns, they had in fact voted to make themselves, and the public services they hold so dear, poorer.

    Perfectly timed release on the day the hapless Sunak ventured North of Watford.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/sunak-hunt-visit-north-east-28820701

    The election campaign is going to be car crash after car crash. It will make May's 2017 campaign look slick, yet some expect swingback...

    Im looking forward to Sunak being confronted by some straight talking northerneres then laughing maniacally in their faces before ignoring them. Tories could be down to 15% by polling day.
    16-17% if they stick to the long-term trend and delay the GE until January 2025:

    image
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Leon not infrequently comes over all Académie Française, when it comes to word use by anyone else but him.
    I think I might be the only person on here who is paid to use the English language, creatively, albeit in my second job? Might that not explain why I am particularly interested in it?

    We did have another writer, @Mysticrose?

    I miss her. She was fun. She was NOT me, btw
    Spoiler alert: @Mysticrose is you pal.

    PS there are some other published authors on here - one or two have mentioned when they have a new book out (e.g. MorrisDancer?).
    And I have a copy of "The Comprehensive Guide to Board Wargaming" by one Nicholas Palmer.
    Me too!

    I used to love hex based simulations. I still have my Squad Leader with expansions in the back of a cupboard, hidden safely from Mrs Foxy.
    It sold 100K copies in various editions, including an Italian one that someone did out of the blue - the publishers gave me and a friend a long weekend on the Adriatic in return for giving a couple of talks at a games convention. Subsequent books (The Best of Board Wargaming, Beyond the Arcade) did much less well and I got the message and hung up my pen.

    Still play lots of games online - mostly Through the Ages and Ark Nova on Boardgaming Online, plus rather an addictive little 4X game on https://np.ironhelmet.com/#landing . New game starting soon...
    100k is REALLY impressive! Many many pro writers never get anywhere near that, for a single book. Bravo
    I remember several years ago there (rightly) was a big fuss about the publication of Oryx and Crake. The first Atwood for some time and An Event. With great fanfare it was duly published and entered the Sunday Times best seller charts at No.1.

    It had sold around three and a half thousand copies.
    Maybe if we could have a book released "My secret gay affair with Putin the man behind the mystery" it could rack up sales of 100000.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Great. Now I've learned about Roko's Basilisk and I'm fucked

    Sounds like a budget Black Mirror episode.
    Here, you can read about it too, and then you are fucked as well

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roko's_basilisk
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    That's brilliant. Here's another one.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/nmHzvQr3kYE?si=gA0eVxekiCexTmCl
    The first one missed that dirty crocks need a wash, but impressive.
    In case Leon is getting excited.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/kWePYEdVbhc?si=GMp52Zs02V9J_Tc6
    Are you claiming that the OpenAI robot is fake?
    I'm not claiming anything.

    No one has answered Topping's Paradox from earlier today btw.

    If an AI robot is asked whether it likes pineapple on pizza and answers yes does that thereby negate its supposed intelligence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    That's brilliant. Here's another one.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/nmHzvQr3kYE?si=gA0eVxekiCexTmCl
    The first one missed that dirty crocks need a wash, but impressive.
    In case Leon is getting excited.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/kWePYEdVbhc?si=GMp52Zs02V9J_Tc6
    Are you claiming that the OpenAI robot is fake?
    I'm not claiming anything.

    No one has answered Topping's Paradox from earlier today btw.

    If an AI robot is asked whether it likes pineapple on pizza and answers yes does that thereby negate its supposed intelligence.
    I'll help you out. It is 99.99% not fake. The creator explains it all here

    "We are now having full conversations with Figure 01, thanks to our partnership with OpenAI.

    Our robot can:
    - describe its visual experience
    - plan future actions
    - reflect on its memory
    - explain its reasoning verbally
    Technical deep-dive 🧵:"


    https://x.com/coreylynch/status/1767927194163331345?s=20
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    That said.

    Theseus's paradox as applied to individual brain neurons is an interesting thought experiment.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know I promised not to talk about AI but I looked again at that video of the robot. It is incredible. It is also terrifying

    We are right on the edge now, yet most people are blithely unaware

    "that video of the robot"

    Could you provide a link please?

    Sure

    https://youtu.be/Sq1QZB5baNw?si=oN3TnvI1IvP7zVOl
    Thanks Leon
    That's brilliant. Here's another one.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/nmHzvQr3kYE?si=gA0eVxekiCexTmCl
    The first one missed that dirty crocks need a wash, but impressive.
    In case Leon is getting excited.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/kWePYEdVbhc?si=GMp52Zs02V9J_Tc6
    Are you claiming that the OpenAI robot is fake?
    I'm not claiming anything.

    No one has answered Topping's Paradox from earlier today btw.

    If an AI robot is asked whether it likes pineapple on pizza and answers yes does that thereby negate its supposed intelligence.
    I'll help you out. It is 99.99% not fake. The creator explains it all here

    "We are now having full conversations with Figure 01, thanks to our partnership with OpenAI.

    Our robot can:
    - describe its visual experience
    - plan future actions
    - reflect on its memory
    - explain its reasoning verbally
    Technical deep-dive 🧵:"


    https://x.com/coreylynch/status/1767927194163331345?s=20
    What does it think of pineapple on pizza.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Great. Now I've learned about Roko's Basilisk and I'm fucked

    Sounds like a budget Black Mirror episode.
    Here, you can read about it too, and then you are fucked as well

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roko's_basilisk
    Have read it. Couldn't care less. Really.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    Leon said:

    Great. Now I've learned about Roko's Basilisk and I'm fucked

    Ha!

    People have been edging around discussion of R***'* B******* on PB for years, hoping that you would never get wind of it...

    Seriously, get drunk tonight and forget all about it.

    You'll be much better for it (as will we...)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Truman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT on the meaning of grifter. Here is the internet definition, and this is the one I have always known

    Grifter

    noun; slang.

    1. a person who operates a side show at a circus, fair, etc., especially a gambling attraction.

    2. a swindler, dishonest gambler, or the like.

    The second is clearly an evolution of the first

    I do not see the political side to this...

    Have you not been watching how Trump has enriched himself through his electoral activities ?
    And you're surely not arguing he's honest ?
    I am certainly not defending Trump, he's a wanker in multiple ways

    I just like to utilise the English language precisely, and I don't think he is a classic"grifter" as the word should be employed. It is a useful and clever word, but it is being stretched in its meaning to basically include "anyone I don't like", that's a shame, to my mind, because then the original precise meaning is lost
    It's an evolution of the word for use in the political sphere.

    Eg Nigel Farage. For years a genuine fighter for a genuine cause (Brexit) he genuinely believed in. Mr Genuine. Surprised that wasn't his nickname.

    But now (let's assume for the sake of this illustration) knocking on, Brexit done, no longer interested in changing the world, instead content to exploit his personal brand for pure gratification and profit (GBNews, AskFarage, TalkingPints, BrexitCords, StripalongaNigel etc), this is a different NF, clearly, and what is it that he has become?

    Yep. You got it.
    Leon not infrequently comes over all Académie Française, when it comes to word use by anyone else but him.
    I think I might be the only person on here who is paid to use the English language, creatively, albeit in my second job? Might that not explain why I am particularly interested in it?

    We did have another writer, @Mysticrose?

    I miss her. She was fun. She was NOT me, btw
    Spoiler alert: @Mysticrose is you pal.

    PS there are some other published authors on here - one or two have mentioned when they have a new book out (e.g. MorrisDancer?).
    And I have a copy of "The Comprehensive Guide to Board Wargaming" by one Nicholas Palmer.
    Me too!

    I used to love hex based simulations. I still have my Squad Leader with expansions in the back of a cupboard, hidden safely from Mrs Foxy.
    It sold 100K copies in various editions, including an Italian one that someone did out of the blue - the publishers gave me and a friend a long weekend on the Adriatic in return for giving a couple of talks at a games convention. Subsequent books (The Best of Board Wargaming, Beyond the Arcade) did much less well and I got the message and hung up my pen.

    Still play lots of games online - mostly Through the Ages and Ark Nova on Boardgaming Online, plus rather an addictive little 4X game on https://np.ironhelmet.com/#landing . New game starting soon...
    100k is REALLY impressive! Many many pro writers never get anywhere near that, for a single book. Bravo
    I remember several years ago there (rightly) was a big fuss about the publication of Oryx and Crake. The first Atwood for some time and An Event. With great fanfare it was duly published and entered the Sunday Times best seller charts at No.1.

    It had sold around three and a half thousand copies.
    Maybe if we could have a book released "My secret gay affair with Putin the man behind the mystery" it could rack up sales of 100000.
    If whoever it is is reading this then my answer is: better, but needs work.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    TOPPING said:

    That said.

    Theseus's paradox as applied to individual brain neurons is an interesting thought experiment.

    Doesn’t it apply to the whole body as every cell is replaced over a lifetime. So the old “a man can never walk through the same river twice as the river is not the same river and the man is not the same man” is technically y true for both.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    It was pointed out that Starmer could well be an outlier in the West as a social democrat leaders surrounded by centre right and far right counterparts. At least partly because of the pass the parcel luck of the draw. Voters are punishing incumbents and most incumbents have been centrist or centre-left. (Though notably almost no actual left wing governments).

    But I don’t think this will be a big problem for Starmer. He’s not an ideologue, and for various reasons the far right leaders in Europe that are in or close to power are oddly Anglophilic. Meloni seems to have softened since winning, and Le Pen has been on a journey. The actual nazis of AfD and their counterparts in the Nordics seem reassuringly far from power. The UK being outside the EU may help, as will the fact those right wing populist leaders are less Europhilic or offended by Brexit. So I think Starmer’s going to find a reasonable modus operandi with them.

    Trump is another matter. He and Starmer are preordained to have nothing common and a mutual seething enmity.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651
    We shouldn't confuse Intelligence with Consciousness. Eg I've just had a cat on my lap and been stroking it. There's an intelligence gap but we're both equally conscious. That's why it's an authentic experience, me stroking, it being stroked. Intelligence is a second order issue. If the cat were as intelligent as me but unconscious the stroking experience would cease to be authentic.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TimS said:

    It was pointed out that Starmer could well be an outlier in the West as a social democrat leaders surrounded by centre right and far right counterparts. At least partly because of the pass the parcel luck of the draw. Voters are punishing incumbents and most incumbents have been centrist or centre-left. (Though notably almost no actual left wing governments).

    But I don’t think this will be a big problem for Starmer. He’s not an ideologue, and for various reasons the far right leaders in Europe that are in or close to power are oddly Anglophilic. Meloni seems to have softened since winning, and Le Pen has been on a journey. The actual nazis of AfD and their counterparts in the Nordics seem reassuringly far from power. The UK being outside the EU may help, as will the fact those right wing populist leaders are less Europhilic or offended by Brexit. So I think Starmer’s going to find a reasonable modus operandi with them.

    Trump is another matter. He and Starmer are preordained to have nothing common and a mutual seething enmity.

    Not so sure re: you're final sentence.

    IIRC, wasn't something similar often said re: Tony Blair and George W. Bush . . . prior to 2000 election AND 9/11/2021?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Really pleased Leon decided not to post about AI today.
    Imagine the conversation if he hadn't.

    Have you ever considered "enhancing" your avatar pic via AI? OR your real photo (assuming two are not same)?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Our current visitor from behind the iron curtain is the brightest and most self-aware since @DJ41. Not by any means on his intellectual level (he was like if Dura Ace and Seamus Milne had spawned a love child and brought him up in a woodland Dacha, before sending him to Wadham to study modern history), but the best of the recent crop.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    edited March 15
    dixiedean said:

    Really pleased Leon decided not to post about AI today.
    Imagine the conversation if he hadn't.

    Apologies. Seriously

    I know it annoys people but the trouble is AI really is THE issue of the day, it is potentially the biggest story in human history, and it is rapidly unfolding right here right now, and this has been (yet another) incredible week of development, it is stupendously hard to ignore, especially on a day without any other news ("Geo Galloway not becoming Manchester mayor" doesn't really equal "the end of human society as we know it", does it?)

    Just look at that robot which @TOPPING thinks is fake

    One interesting thing is that quite a lot of people think it is fake, and they aren't all dumb. Why? Because it scares them, they WANT to believe it is fake
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,283
    Is it really a good idea for the President of Lativa to say "Russia delenda est"?

    https://twitter.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1768533827897397433
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214

    TimS said:

    It was pointed out that Starmer could well be an outlier in the West as a social democrat leaders surrounded by centre right and far right counterparts. At least partly because of the pass the parcel luck of the draw. Voters are punishing incumbents and most incumbents have been centrist or centre-left. (Though notably almost no actual left wing governments).

    But I don’t think this will be a big problem for Starmer. He’s not an ideologue, and for various reasons the far right leaders in Europe that are in or close to power are oddly Anglophilic. Meloni seems to have softened since winning, and Le Pen has been on a journey. The actual nazis of AfD and their counterparts in the Nordics seem reassuringly far from power. The UK being outside the EU may help, as will the fact those right wing populist leaders are less Europhilic or offended by Brexit. So I think Starmer’s going to find a reasonable modus operandi with them.

    Trump is another matter. He and Starmer are preordained to have nothing common and a mutual seething enmity.

    Not so sure re: you're final sentence.

    IIRC, wasn't something similar often said re: Tony Blair and George W. Bush . . . prior to 2000 election AND 9/11/2021?
    Starmer is not Blair, and Trump is not Bush. Blair and Bush were both interventionist internationalists, even if they came from different political traditions. Trump is a sociopath and Starmer is Mark Darcy.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    boulay said:

    TOPPING said:

    That said.

    Theseus's paradox as applied to individual brain neurons is an interesting thought experiment.

    Doesn’t it apply to the whole body as every cell is replaced over a lifetime. So the old “a man can never walk through the same river twice as the river is not the same river and the man is not the same man” is technically y true for both.
    Would this apply to single-cell slime?

    There was great NOVA episode about this, they actually had obstacle course comparing one-cell slime from different continents; as I recall the American slime was speedier but reckless, whereas Asian was more cautious but also less likely to get itself into trouble.

    Also turned out that slime dislikes salt (who knew?) but LOVES milled oats.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Really pleased Leon decided not to post about AI today.
    Imagine the conversation if he hadn't.

    Apologies. Seriously

    I know it annoys people but the trouble is AI really is THE issue of the day, it is potentially the biggest story in human history, and it is rapidly unfolding right here right now, and this has been (yet another) incredible week of development, it is stupendously hard to ignore, especially on a day without any other news ("Geo Galloway not becoming Manchester mayor" doesn't really equal "the end of human society as we know it", does it?)

    Just look at that robot which @TOPPING thinks is fake

    One interesting thing is that quite a lot of people think it is fake, and they aren't all dumb. Why? Because it scares them, they WANT to believe it is fake
    Instead of considering other people's psychology, perhaps you should spend some time considering your own?

    ;)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214

    Is it really a good idea for the President of Lativa to say "Russia delenda est"?

    https://twitter.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1768533827897397433

    Yes, it is. Weakness is escalation, as we’ve seen graphically in recent weeks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    This was released yesterday


    Quiet-STaR: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Think Before Speaking
    New Q* paper doubles LLM performance in mathematics


    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.09629.pdf

    I think you'll find it's just guessing the next word. There's nothing of note here. In my day we had to guess the next word by the end of Primary One or we'd be sent out in our vests to do a marathon of shame.
    But that is what LLMs do, they guess the next word. And, perhaps, that is all that humans do: we guess the next word. We do not have free will, it is an illusion, we are reflexive auto-complete machines, like the robots, but we like to think we aren't

    And the machines are getting better at being like us, and soon they will be better at being us, than us
    It's becoming more apparent that's not all that LLM's do. The work going into probing the inner representations some of these models have is quite eye-opening.
    Interesting! Links?
    Don't have the papers to hand, but the first one that caught my eye was about an LLM being fed Othello moves and another analysing the steps a diffusion model used to generate "it's" idea of depth and focus in a 3D space. Very quick post friday-night-gin-o-clock google gives some pointers to :

    https://adamkarvonen.github.io/machine_learning/2024/01/03/chess-world-models.html

    https://yc015.github.io/scene-representation-diffusion-model/ (the first image in there gives a sense of the model having an 'idea' of 3D depth despite not being trained on it)

    Ta muchly
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Really pleased Leon decided not to post about AI today.
    Imagine the conversation if he hadn't.

    Apologies. Seriously

    I know it annoys people but the trouble is AI really is THE issue of the day, it is potentially the biggest story in human history, and it is rapidly unfolding right here right now, and this has been (yet another) incredible week of development, it is stupendously hard to ignore, especially on a day without any other news ("Geo Galloway not becoming Manchester mayor" doesn't really equal "the end of human society as we know it", does it?)

    Just look at that robot which @TOPPING thinks is fake

    One interesting thing is that quite a lot of people think it is fake, and they aren't all dumb. Why? Because it scares them, they WANT to believe it is fake
    Not at all. I love the progress. It is really exciting. I was just teasing you and your openness.

    But, and apologies for using the old example but it's the same as a Kandinsky and an AI or six-yr old painting that could be a Kandinsky. A debate that is long standing in the art world.

    I need to know that a human created it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Really pleased Leon decided not to post about AI today.
    Imagine the conversation if he hadn't.

    Apologies. Seriously

    I know it annoys people but the trouble is AI really is THE issue of the day, it is potentially the biggest story in human history, and it is rapidly unfolding right here right now, and this has been (yet another) incredible week of development, it is stupendously hard to ignore, especially on a day without any other news ("Geo Galloway not becoming Manchester mayor" doesn't really equal "the end of human society as we know it", does it?)

    Just look at that robot which @TOPPING thinks is fake

    One interesting thing is that quite a lot of people think it is fake, and they aren't all dumb. Why? Because it scares them, they WANT to believe it is fake
    Not at all. I love the progress. It is really exciting. I was just teasing you and your openness.

    But, and apologies for using the old example but it's the same as a Kandinsky and an AI or six-yr old painting that could be a Kandinsky. A debate that is long standing in the art world.

    I need to know that a human created it.
    AI is way beyond this wearied and tiresome discourse, now
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I tweeted Easyjet today saying it was nigh on impossible to cancel my flight with them (because they’ve changed the departure time) and am now getting weird, obviously pretend easyJet people asking me to DM them etc

    I did DM the real (I hope) account. Is this a usual thing?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Really pleased Leon decided not to post about AI today.
    Imagine the conversation if he hadn't.

    Apologies. Seriously

    I know it annoys people but the trouble is AI really is THE issue of the day, it is potentially the biggest story in human history, and it is rapidly unfolding right here right now, and this has been (yet another) incredible week of development, it is stupendously hard to ignore, especially on a day without any other news ("Geo Galloway not becoming Manchester mayor" doesn't really equal "the end of human society as we know it", does it?)

    Just look at that robot which @TOPPING thinks is fake

    One interesting thing is that quite a lot of people think it is fake, and they aren't all dumb. Why? Because it scares them, they WANT to believe it is fake
    Not at all. I love the progress. It is really exciting. I was just teasing you and your openness.

    But, and apologies for using the old example but it's the same as a Kandinsky and an AI or six-yr old painting that could be a Kandinsky. A debate that is long standing in the art world.

    I need to know that a human created it.
    AI is way beyond this wearied and tiresome discourse, now
    No it's not. It's really not.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    dixiedean said:

    Really pleased Leon decided not to post about AI today.
    Imagine the conversation if he hadn't.

    Have you ever considered "enhancing" your avatar pic via AI? OR your real photo (assuming two are not same)?
    Tut tut, that is Dixie Dean, one of the finest footballers in history. A Everton and England legend.

    You are obviously excused as someone who comes from a country where footballers use their hands.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    TOPPING said:

    @rcs1000 just an idle thought would it be possible in theory to scrape/take in the entirety of PB all comments by everyone.

    Then say you wanted to make an AI poster it would presumably have all the information about topics, inter-poster relationships, styles, etc to make seemingly informed and genuine seeming posts.

    It's been trivial to feed stuff like PB comments into a simple Markov chain system for the past 30 years or so. That'll give you the basic "predict the next word" output for a while - probably enough to give you a couple of plausible PB-ish comments before it goes mad. Try a 1990s version at https://www.jwz.org/dadadodo/

    The corpus of PB comments is too small to train an LLM by itself - but, yes, one of the big money-making opportunities here is around the more narrowly-focussed stuff like this.

    Perhaps not exactly "describe the relationship between TOPPING and Kinbalu on politicalbetting.com", but I guess you can imagine how that might be extended into things that businesses would find to be of real value.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,588
    AI scares, unnerves and annoys a lot of people, it's not just @TOPPING

    An audience at SXSW reacts to a video talking about AI with extremely loud booing and cat-calling


    https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/sxsw-audiences-boo-videos-artificial-intelligence-ai-1235940454/
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    TimS said:

    Is it really a good idea for the President of Lativa to say "Russia delenda est"?

    https://twitter.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1768533827897397433

    Yes, it is. Weakness is escalation, as we’ve seen graphically in recent weeks.
    How do we plan to beat Russia though without NATO boots on the ground. Serious question.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    Is it really a good idea for the President of Lativa to say "Russia delenda est"?

    https://twitter.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1768533827897397433

    As Lativa doesn’t exist it’s no biggy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited March 15
    Leon said:

    AI scares, unnerves and annoys a lot of people, it's not just @TOPPING

    An audience at SXSW reacts to a video talking about AI with extremely loud booing and cat-calling


    https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/sxsw-audiences-boo-videos-artificial-intelligence-ai-1235940454/

    You are creating false monsters. Shadows if you like.

    I think AI is going to be fantastic but as with so many things you are getting carried away.

    And that's why we love you.
This discussion has been closed.