What is Sunak up to? – politicalbetting.com

londonpubman said:

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

malcolmg said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

.

malcolmg said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Good morning from Wembley. I note the Trump thread and nod that the budget was such a non-event that it has no political implications the morning after.

So, stick or twist. Is the "actually you're still paying the most amount of tax ever" budget enough to make Sunak sprint for May? Or do they need another autumn statement and thus slide towards ELE?

The big story from yesterday is Hunt's journey on equalising IT and NI which is something labour should be in favour off not objecting strenuously to it this morning

Nothing sides more with workers than this policy and I expect it to be in the conservative manifesto

As you know I'm not voting Labour...

The simple truth is that almost none of these budget measures will be enacted, by any party. The country is broken and something more substantial will be needed after the election, whenever it is.

The NI and child benefit changes together with 8.5% pension increases will be in April's pay packets

Both of which reduce the size of the tax increase. Like reducing inflation, its still an increase...

Show your working.

For a median earner on PAYE it's a tax cut.

For someone like Malc who thinks he shouldn't pay the same rates as those on PAYE it's a tax rise.

Listen you lying little snake. I pay all the same taxes as everyone else and I bet multiple times the money you are paying as a thick low income sponger. I pay more than twice your minimum income so that you can get loads of freebies for you and your brood.

National Insurance is a tax you nincompoop.

HMRC says its a tax under international law and treaties.

Do you pay that? Or did you not understand that?

Are you lying, or ignorant?

You are a thick brainless absolute moronic cretin. I pay all the taxes the government levies, what part of that does your empty head not register. GFY it is like talking to a brick.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

mwadams said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

Quite. And who is being teased? No-one else cares.

I actually think all of labour and others do care and really want it on 2nd May

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.

https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

londonpubman said:

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

This one won't

So you are actually going to vote for this Government or are you going to sit the election out?

I will not vote Reform or Labour but labour will retake the seat anyway

So Plaid Cymru it is then?

You've got more in common with HY than you realise!

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.

https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

TheScreamingEagles said:

Thoughts and prayers for Red Bull's HR department.

ydoethur said:

I don't think to be too Talleyrand* about this. He may just be being incompetent.

*On hearing of the death of the Ottoman ambassador: 'I wonder what he meant by that.'

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

2007 vs 2010 is a bit more consequential than May vs September.

LostPassword said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

2007 vs 2010 is a bit more consequential than May vs September.

Still. When Sunak dreamed of becoming PM I don't think Brown was the PM he was hoping to be compared to.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

And this seems lenient

https://news.sky.com/story/wales-rugby-star-mason-grady-fined-for-driving-at-115mph-along-m4-13089175

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

And this seems lenient

https://news.sky.com/story/wales-rugby-star-mason-grady-fined-for-driving-at-115mph-along-m4-13089175

It seems about right to me. If you're going to break the speed limit by 45mph a motorway has to be the safest place to do it.

My days of always checking the top speed of every car I owned at least once have long gone - but when I was Grady's age...

LostPassword said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

2007 vs 2010 is a bit more consequential than May vs September.

Still. When Sunak dreamed of becoming PM I don't think Brown was the PM he was hoping to be compared to.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

Benpointer said:

AlsoLei said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Implying that it was the complainant who published the messages, rather than a leak from the investigation...

I don't really get how that's cause for suspension, though - I could understand if she'd breached an NDA, but the messages in question were clearly personal and non-work related...

It's a terrible look for Red Bull.

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sweden officially becomes NATOs 32nd member

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Malmesbury said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sweden officially becomes NATOs 32nd member

Who delivers Putin's NATO Salesman of the Century Award?

I know it's only a double glazing window discount voucher.....

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

david_herdson said:

Benpointer said:

numbertwelve said:

That budget did not scream “GE in 8 weeks” to me. Quite the opposite. It seemed to be laying the ground/setting the scene for an autumn fiscal event.

But given Sunak is crap at messaging, who the hell knows anymore.

The issue is: come the autumn, what room will there be for another 'fiscal event', unless you mean the sort the previous PM delivered.

I'm not convinced there will be another fiscal event. I think the purpose of this one was for people to have had several months of tax cuts *in their pockets*.

Having another fiscal event means giving Labour (and commentators, and maybe the market) a chance to rip it down, all immediately before an election. If the policy won't have any practical effect in the next 5 weeks, better to make it a promise to be contingent on re-election rather than something the public's already banked. In politics, gratitude tends to come in advance.

But also, timings. If you're going to have a fiscal event then parliament needs to be sitting. That means either shoehorning something into the couple of weeks between summer and the conference season or waiting until after the conferences. The former is an extremely tight timescale; the latter means foregoing control of the narrative that conference is intended to give you, as well as meaning parliament is also available for any other purpose Labour, the LDs, SNP and so on can put it to. Plus, it pushes the window for an election back to late Nov at least, if the fiscal event is mid-Oct. Possible, but not ideal.

I still reckon Nov 14, called from the Tory conference.

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Malmesbury said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

And this seems lenient

https://news.sky.com/story/wales-rugby-star-mason-grady-fined-for-driving-at-115mph-along-m4-13089175

It seems about right to me. If you're going to break the speed limit by 45mph a motorway has to be the safest place to do it.

My days of always checking the top speed of every car I owned at least once have long gone - but when I was Grady's age...

How much does a track day cost?

LostPassword said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

If all the political journalists are running around talking about possible election dates then they are not running around talking about the weak points found in the budget, the fantasy of the aspiration to abolish NI, or the cuts and tax increases pencilled in to keep debt under control.

Anabobazina said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

Will “conditions allow” in January?

No. So he should go now when he might have the chance of closing the gap. Look brave. Be the bigger man.

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

Will “conditions allow” in January?

No. So he should go now when he might have the chance of closing the gap. Look brave. Be the bigger man.

Agreed. With a long campaign anything could happen.

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

Anabobazina said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

Will “conditions allow” in January?

No. So he should go now when he might have the chance of closing the gap. Look brave. Be the bigger man.

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

biggles said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

I mean, under our constitution (lack of) it only takes a simple majority in the House to decide you don’t fancy having elections at all until “conditions allow”. 2030? 2040?

AlsoLei said:

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

That's what I would have thought - it's been part of the company handbook everywhere I've ever worked.

I can see why they'd want to get rid of her, but surely a generous payout backed with a compromise agreement including a strict NDA would be the right way to go?

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

That's what I would have thought - it's been part of the company handbook everywhere I've ever worked.

I can see why they'd want to get rid of her, but surely a generous payout backed with a compromise agreement including a strict NDA would be the right way to go?

I'm no HR expert or lawyer, but as part of management training I was always told

1) Separate the parties to the complaint without acting against them outside the process.
2) Call in HR and the lawyers
3) Do nothing clever

david_herdson said:

biggles said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

I mean, under our constitution (lack of) it only takes a simple majority in the House to decide you don’t fancy having elections at all until “conditions allow”. 2030? 2040?

No it's not. The Lords retains its absolute right of veto on extending the length of a parliament, under the Parliament Act.

It's the only thing the Lords *does* have full veto powers on (although its 12-month veto is sufficient now for the rest of this parliament).

isam said:

https://x.com/godblesstoto/status/1765770786999058911?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

MoonRabbit said:

I’ve just come in. So Sunak hasn’t called the election yet? 🤷‍♀️

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November

Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely

LostPassword said:

MattW said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.

https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

Actually you kind of prove my point here.

As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.

But those are averages. Averages mask variance.

Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.

Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.

We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.

Can we agree on that?

I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.

However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.

I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).

I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.

But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.

Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.

Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?

Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.