What is Sunak up to? – politicalbetting.com

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What is Sunak up to? – politicalbetting.com

When you’re worried Labour are going to accuse you of bottling a May election, certainly an interesting tactic to then not deny a May election https://t.co/gmoblc2UrN

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Thoughts and prayers for Red Bull's HR department.

viewcode

What's Sunak up to? About 5ft 6, isn't it?

MattW

Third.

Thank's for the header.

I think Sunak hasn't got the foggiest idea what he was up to.

londonpubman

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

Nigelb

He's not up to much.

Fairliered

I’m very disappointed. I was expecting a thread about the Lewisham mayoral by-election!

Big_G_NorthWales

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

Big_G_NorthWales

londonpubman said:

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

This one won't

eek

Big_G_NorthWales said:

londonpubman said:

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

This one won't

So you are actually going to vote for this Government or are you going to sit the election out?

ydoethur

I don't think to be too Talleyrand* about this. He may just be being incompetent.

*On hearing of the death of the Ottoman ambassador: 'I wonder what he meant by that.'

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

Anabobazina

On topic. Yes, quite @TheScreamingEagles

As I was saying on the previous thread!!

mwadams

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

Quite. And who is being teased? No-one else cares.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Big_G_NorthWales

mwadams said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

Quite. And who is being teased? No-one else cares.

I actually think all of labour and others do care and really want it on 2nd May

BartholomewRoberts

malcolmg said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

.

malcolmg said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Good morning from Wembley. I note the Trump thread and nod that the budget was such a non-event that it has no political implications the morning after.

So, stick or twist. Is the "actually you're still paying the most amount of tax ever" budget enough to make Sunak sprint for May? Or do they need another autumn statement and thus slide towards ELE?

The big story from yesterday is Hunt's journey on equalising IT and NI which is something labour should be in favour off not objecting strenuously to it this morning

Nothing sides more with workers than this policy and I expect it to be in the conservative manifesto

As you know I'm not voting Labour...

The simple truth is that almost none of these budget measures will be enacted, by any party. The country is broken and something more substantial will be needed after the election, whenever it is.

The NI and child benefit changes together with 8.5% pension increases will be in April's pay packets

Both of which reduce the size of the tax increase. Like reducing inflation, its still an increase...

Show your working.

For a median earner on PAYE it's a tax cut.

For someone like Malc who thinks he shouldn't pay the same rates as those on PAYE it's a tax rise.

Listen you lying little snake. I pay all the same taxes as everyone else and I bet multiple times the money you are paying as a thick low income sponger. I pay more than twice your minimum income so that you can get loads of freebies for you and your brood.

National Insurance is a tax you nincompoop.

HMRC says its a tax under international law and treaties.

Do you pay that? Or did you not understand that?

Are you lying, or ignorant?

You are a thick brainless absolute moronic cretin. I pay all the taxes the government levies, what part of that does your empty head not register. GFY it is like talking to a brick.

Ooh you're so close that you're almost getting it you nitwit.

Paying all the taxes the government levies isn't the same as paying the same taxes as everyone else, as you originally claimed.

Everyone else who is working for a living and not reached retirement age has to pay National Insurance as a tax on their earnings. You don't.

That anomaly needs fixing. You should pay the same tax rate, including NI, on your earnings as a worker does.

Big_G_NorthWales

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

londonpubman said:

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

This one won't

So you are actually going to vote for this Government or are you going to sit the election out?

I will not vote Reform or Labour but labour will retake the seat anyway

dixiedean

Big_G_NorthWales said:

mwadams said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

Quite. And who is being teased? No-one else cares.

I actually think all of labour and others do care and really want it on 2nd May

Yes.
Because we want rid of this wretched administration asap.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

MattW

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

SandyRentool

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

londonpubman said:

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

This one won't

So you are actually going to vote for this Government or are you going to sit the election out?

I will not vote Reform or Labour but labour will retake the seat anyway

So Plaid Cymru it is then?

You've got more in common with HY than you realise!

BartholomewRoberts

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.

https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

Actually you kind of prove my point here.

As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.

But those are averages. Averages mask variance.

Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.

Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.

We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.

Can we agree on that?

Big_G_NorthWales

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

And this seems lenient

https://news.sky.com/story/wales-rugby-star-mason-grady-fined-for-driving-at-115mph-along-m4-13089175

Big_G_NorthWales

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

londonpubman said:

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

This one won't

So you are actually going to vote for this Government or are you going to sit the election out?

I will not vote Reform or Labour but labour will retake the seat anyway

So Plaid Cymru it is then?

You've got more in common with HY than you realise!

No and no

mwadams

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

mwadams said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

Quite. And who is being teased? No-one else cares.

I actually think all of labour and others do care and really want it on 2nd May

Yes.
Because we want rid of this wretched administration asap.

But that doesn't make for "teasing".

JosiasJessop

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.

https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

It's more than that, though. A hit and run of a 15-year old boy on a (push) scooter; the car found burnt out in a nearby village. We've just had 20MPH limits posted in the village; I'm not against them, but they're pretty much pointless if people just ignore them. There are lots of problems with attitudes towards roads and safety.

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/boy-riding-scooter-seriously-injured-28769430

Fortunately the **** has been caught. There are *lots* of rumours swirling around; best not to put them on here, especially as some are contradictory!

Edit:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-68492997

TheScreamingEagles

Fairliered said:

I’m very disappointed. I was expecting a thread about the Lewisham mayoral by-election!

I know I am a polymath but not even my expertise extends to Lewisham and their mayoral election.

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Thoughts and prayers for Red Bull's HR department.

They pay Jos Verstappen*. Red Bull's HR department is no doubt about as effective as the Trump Organisation's. Or the Post Office's.

* No idea if they do this directly. They certainly do indirectly, and very happily engage with him.

OnlyLivingBoy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fairliered said:

I’m very disappointed. I was expecting a thread about the Lewisham mayoral by-election!

I know I am a polymath but not even my expertise extends to Lewisham and their mayoral election.

I am expecting a low turnout (even I had forgotten about it until reminded on our street WhatsApp group) and a win for Labour's Brenda Dacres (who is lovely BTW).

JosiasJessop

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

OnlyLivingBoy

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

londonpubman said:

4th like CON as all pensioners move their vote to REF or LAB

This one won't

So you are actually going to vote for this Government or are you going to sit the election out?

I will not vote Reform or Labour but labour will retake the seat anyway

So Plaid Cymru it is then?

You've got more in common with HY than you realise!

Wales and Essex. Is this a Gavin and Stacey situation?

david_herdson

ydoethur said:

I don't think to be too Talleyrand* about this. He may just be being incompetent.

*On hearing of the death of the Ottoman ambassador: 'I wonder what he meant by that.'

I was wondering whether you were referring to Napoleon's famed estimation of the diplomat?

anothernick

Sunak is just hopeless at politics - this is the man who announced the cancellation of high speed rail to Manchester in a high-profile speech in .. er .. Manchester, the man who promised a government of honesty and integrity and then appointed Suella Braverman as Home Secretary, and the man who has adopted the absurd Rwanda policy - a policy he correctly believes to be a pointless waste of money - as the key metric against which he wishes to be judged.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

2007 vs 2010 is a bit more consequential than May vs September.

Anabobazina

So, Sunny Boy, election on May 2?

Bring it on, lad.

LostPassword

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

2007 vs 2010 is a bit more consequential than May vs September.

Still. When Sunak dreamed of becoming PM I don't think Brown was the PM he was hoping to be compared to.

AlsoLei

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Implying that it was the complainant who published the messages, rather than a leak from the investigation...

I don't really get how that's cause for suspension, though - I could understand if she'd breached an NDA, but the messages in question were clearly personal and non-work related...

Anabobazina

LostPassword said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

2007 vs 2010 is a bit more consequential than May vs September.

Still. When Sunak dreamed of becoming PM I don't think Brown was the PM he was hoping to be compared to.

Indeed. Bottler Brown and Scaredy Sunak.

The comparisons rather write themselves.

numbertwelve

That budget did not scream “GE in 8 weeks” to me. Quite the opposite. It seemed to be laying the ground/setting the scene for an autumn fiscal event.

But given Sunak is crap at messaging, who the hell knows anymore.

Benpointer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

And this seems lenient

https://news.sky.com/story/wales-rugby-star-mason-grady-fined-for-driving-at-115mph-along-m4-13089175

It seems about right to me. If you're going to break the speed limit by 45mph a motorway has to be the safest place to do it.

My days of always checking the top speed of every car I owned at least once have long gone - but when I was Grady's age...

AlsoLei

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

2007 vs 2010 is a bit more consequential than May vs September.

Other way round. The fuss in 2007 died down after the GFC and only political anoraks were still bringing it up in 2010. But bottle an election in May, and it'll still be a live issue come September.

Malmesbury

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

And this seems lenient

https://news.sky.com/story/wales-rugby-star-mason-grady-fined-for-driving-at-115mph-along-m4-13089175

It seems about right to me. If you're going to break the speed limit by 45mph a motorway has to be the safest place to do it.

My days of always checking the top speed of every car I owned at least once have long gone - but when I was Grady's age...

How much does a track day cost?

Benpointer

numbertwelve said:

That budget did not scream “GE in 8 weeks” to me. Quite the opposite. It seemed to be laying the ground/setting the scene for an autumn fiscal event.

But given Sunak is crap at messaging, who the hell knows anymore.

The issue is: come the autumn, what room will there be for another 'fiscal event', unless you mean the sort the previous PM delivered.

numbertwelve

LostPassword said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

2007 vs 2010 is a bit more consequential than May vs September.

Still. When Sunak dreamed of becoming PM I don't think Brown was the PM he was hoping to be compared to.

Gordon Brown is a political titan compared to Rishi Sunak.

And I say that as someone who was far from being a fan of Mr Brown or his government.

Benpointer

AlsoLei said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Implying that it was the complainant who published the messages, rather than a leak from the investigation...

I don't really get how that's cause for suspension, though - I could understand if she'd breached an NDA, but the messages in question were clearly personal and non-work related...

It's a terrible look for Red Bull.

Stuartinromford

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

Fifteen years on, that still sounds more scary than it should.

On topic, I'm sure Rishi wants to call the election for a date when he can win. Trouble is, that date doesn't seem to exist.

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

noneoftheabove

Benpointer said:

AlsoLei said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Implying that it was the complainant who published the messages, rather than a leak from the investigation...

I don't really get how that's cause for suspension, though - I could understand if she'd breached an NDA, but the messages in question were clearly personal and non-work related...

It's a terrible look for Red Bull.

I think they will try and wing it.

RochdalePioneers

TheScreamingEagles said:

Thoughts and prayers for Red Bull's HR department.

Don't worry. Red Bull can afford the vast payout she will get.

Anabobazina

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Big_G_NorthWales

Sweden officially becomes NATOs 32nd member

turbotubbs

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Stuartinromford

numbertwelve said:

That budget did not scream “GE in 8 weeks” to me. Quite the opposite. It seemed to be laying the ground/setting the scene for an autumn fiscal event.

But given Sunak is crap at messaging, who the hell knows anymore.

If there was likely to be more fiscal firepower in the autumn, I'd agree. But my understanding is that there's unlikely to be much, or any.

Yesterday was more like a doomed army scabbling together whatever it could find to have one last shot, even if it was unlikely to work.

Malmesbury

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sweden officially becomes NATOs 32nd member

Who delivers Putin's NATO Salesman of the Century Award?

I know it's only a double glazing window discount voucher.....

david_herdson

Benpointer said:

numbertwelve said:

That budget did not scream “GE in 8 weeks” to me. Quite the opposite. It seemed to be laying the ground/setting the scene for an autumn fiscal event.

But given Sunak is crap at messaging, who the hell knows anymore.

The issue is: come the autumn, what room will there be for another 'fiscal event', unless you mean the sort the previous PM delivered.

I'm not convinced there will be another fiscal event. I think the purpose of this one was for people to have had several months of tax cuts *in their pockets*.

Having another fiscal event means giving Labour (and commentators, and maybe the market) a chance to rip it down, all immediately before an election. If the policy won't have any practical effect in the next 5 weeks, better to make it a promise to be contingent on re-election rather than something the public's already banked. In politics, gratitude tends to come in advance.

But also, timings. If you're going to have a fiscal event then parliament needs to be sitting. That means either shoehorning something into the couple of weeks between summer and the conference season or waiting until after the conferences. The former is an extremely tight timescale; the latter means foregoing control of the narrative that conference is intended to give you, as well as meaning parliament is also available for any other purpose Labour, the LDs, SNP and so on can put it to. Plus, it pushes the window for an election back to late Nov at least, if the fiscal event is mid-Oct. Possible, but not ideal.

I still reckon Nov 14, called from the Tory conference.

AlsoLei

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

JosiasJessop

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Indeed; but the whole thing whiffs more than a little.

Flatlander

Malmesbury said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sweden officially becomes NATOs 32nd member

Who delivers Putin's NATO Salesman of the Century Award?

I know it's only a double glazing window discount voucher.....

Cue Trident Sub Commander.

Oh, hang on...

Malmesbury

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

david_herdson

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

williamglenn

https://x.com/mij_europe/status/1765760401378033954

Macron today produced maps of a poss Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the west to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks w French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on Fr involvement in the conflict

Anabobazina

david_herdson said:

Benpointer said:

numbertwelve said:

That budget did not scream “GE in 8 weeks” to me. Quite the opposite. It seemed to be laying the ground/setting the scene for an autumn fiscal event.

But given Sunak is crap at messaging, who the hell knows anymore.

The issue is: come the autumn, what room will there be for another 'fiscal event', unless you mean the sort the previous PM delivered.

I'm not convinced there will be another fiscal event. I think the purpose of this one was for people to have had several months of tax cuts *in their pockets*.

Having another fiscal event means giving Labour (and commentators, and maybe the market) a chance to rip it down, all immediately before an election. If the policy won't have any practical effect in the next 5 weeks, better to make it a promise to be contingent on re-election rather than something the public's already banked. In politics, gratitude tends to come in advance.

But also, timings. If you're going to have a fiscal event then parliament needs to be sitting. That means either shoehorning something into the couple of weeks between summer and the conference season or waiting until after the conferences. The former is an extremely tight timescale; the latter means foregoing control of the narrative that conference is intended to give you, as well as meaning parliament is also available for any other purpose Labour, the LDs, SNP and so on can put it to. Plus, it pushes the window for an election back to late Nov at least, if the fiscal event is mid-Oct. Possible, but not ideal.

I still reckon Nov 14, called from the Tory conference.

Just in time for their heating bills to munch up any of the cash in their pockets. Makes no sense.

Sunny should go. And go now.

DecrepiterJohnL

Ex-sergeant admits horse racing betting fraud
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crg97wj4en4o

Ponzi scheme. £10 million unaccounted for.

Arrested 2019. Pled guilty at trial in 2024. Four and a half years' delay.

Anabobazina

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

LostPassword

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

If all the political journalists are running around talking about possible election dates then they are not running around talking about the weak points found in the budget, the fantasy of the aspiration to abolish NI, or the cuts and tax increases pencilled in to keep debt under control.

Benpointer

Malmesbury said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

And this seems lenient

https://news.sky.com/story/wales-rugby-star-mason-grady-fined-for-driving-at-115mph-along-m4-13089175

It seems about right to me. If you're going to break the speed limit by 45mph a motorway has to be the safest place to do it.

My days of always checking the top speed of every car I owned at least once have long gone - but when I was Grady's age...

How much does a track day cost?

Yes, fair point. So far as I know they weren't really available in my young day. Then again a 1300L Mk2 Ford Escort was going to struggle to get much above the speed limit anyway.

Benpointer

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

Anabobazina

LostPassword said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

If all the political journalists are running around talking about possible election dates then they are not running around talking about the weak points found in the budget, the fantasy of the aspiration to abolish NI, or the cuts and tax increases pencilled in to keep debt under control.

Nope. They are talking about those as well. If this is Sunny’s idea of 4D chess, then he has much to learn.

Anabobazina

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

Will “conditions allow” in January?

No. So he should go now when he might have the chance of closing the gap. Look brave. Be the bigger man.

Benpointer

Anabobazina said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

Will “conditions allow” in January?

No. So he should go now when he might have the chance of closing the gap. Look brave. Be the bigger man.

Agreed. With a long campaign anything could happen.

kinabalu

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Ex-sergeant admits horse racing betting fraud
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crg97wj4en4o

Ponzi scheme. £10 million unaccounted for.

Arrested 2019. Pled guilty at trial in 2024. Four and a half years' delay.

There's a lot of trust required in those things esp in a sector that isn't exactly short of rogues. However if done right it can be great. I was in a dog syndicate once. What a thrill when it won a race at the Royal Ascot of greyhound racing - Walthamstow.

Anabobazina

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

Will “conditions allow” in January?

No. So he should go now when he might have the chance of closing the gap. Look brave. Be the bigger man.

Agreed. With a long campaign anything could happen.

Sunny should go for it. @MexicanPete is convinced he can do it, swing it back, be the Comeback Kid.

Sunny, if you are reading: May 2. Do it.

Fairliered

Anabobazina said:

LostPassword said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

If all the political journalists are running around talking about possible election dates then they are not running around talking about the weak points found in the budget, the fantasy of the aspiration to abolish NI, or the cuts and tax increases pencilled in to keep debt under control.

Nope. They are talking about those as well. If this is Sunny’s idea of 4D chess, then he has much to learn.

He would struggle to win at 2D ludo.

david_herdson

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

There comes a point where you can't put it off any longer. Which is a December election. Jan 2025 really isn't on. But in reality, giving Labour free hits in parliament in the autumn is a good incentive not to let it drag on then for another month or so (and potentially into another NHS crisis). By contrast, he can persuade himself that an economic upturn might move the dial over the summer.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Thoughts and prayers for Red Bull's HR department.

She’s already said to have turned down £650k (c.10x her annual salary, c.1 month of Horny’s gross salary) to go away. I suspect she wants to see a public tribunal, and will end up settling for a couple of million on the morning of the hearing.

LostPassword

Anabobazina said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

Will “conditions allow” in January?

No. So he should go now when he might have the chance of closing the gap. Look brave. Be the bigger man.

He's 20% behind. That's as close to certain defeat as it gets. He'll wait.

biggles

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

I mean, under our constitution (lack of) it only takes a simple majority in the House to decide you don’t fancy having elections at all until “conditions allow”. 2030? 2040?

AlsoLei

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

That's what I would have thought - it's been part of the company handbook everywhere I've ever worked.

I can see why they'd want to get rid of her, but surely a generous payout backed with a compromise agreement including a strict NDA would be the right way to go?

Malmesbury

AlsoLei said:

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

That's what I would have thought - it's been part of the company handbook everywhere I've ever worked.

I can see why they'd want to get rid of her, but surely a generous payout backed with a compromise agreement including a strict NDA would be the right way to go?

I'm no HR expert or lawyer, but as part of management training I was always told

1) Separate the parties to the complaint without acting against them outside the process.
2) Call in HR and the lawyers
3) Do nothing clever

david_herdson

biggles said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

I mean, under our constitution (lack of) it only takes a simple majority in the House to decide you don’t fancy having elections at all until “conditions allow”. 2030? 2040?

No it's not. The Lords retains its absolute right of veto on extending the length of a parliament, under the Parliament Act.

It's the only thing the Lords *does* have full veto powers on (although its 12-month veto is sufficient now for the rest of this parliament).

IanB2

And a great clear round from Dylan, current world under-19 champion, in the small agility final

The next competitor, Sizzle, not doing so well.

biggles

AlsoLei said:

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

That's what I would have thought - it's been part of the company handbook everywhere I've ever worked.

I can see why they'd want to get rid of her, but surely a generous payout backed with a compromise agreement including a strict NDA would be the right way to go?

Yup. But depends how incompetent one is, how deep ones pockets are, and how angry ones PR people get. A basic principle of employment law is that it is its own thing. You can sack someone for any reason - e.g. being black or a woman - so long as you are willing to pay what the tribunal says you must pay. So employment law matters if you’re a bakery, but not so much if you’re massive and can afford the cost.

Your reputation might matter to you though.

Sandpit

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

That's what I would have thought - it's been part of the company handbook everywhere I've ever worked.

I can see why they'd want to get rid of her, but surely a generous payout backed with a compromise agreement including a strict NDA would be the right way to go?

I'm no HR expert or lawyer, but as part of management training I was always told

1) Separate the parties to the complaint without acting against them outside the process.
2) Call in HR and the lawyers
3) Do nothing clever

How do do you do 1), in the situation where the parties are the CEO and his own PA?

Nigelb

.

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

Malmesbury said:

AlsoLei said:

turbotubbs said:

JosiasJessop said:

Have we covered this? Red Bull have suspended the woman who made accusations against Christian Horner.

Not a good look...

Maybe not (and checks to see if cyclefree is about) but not every complaint is true.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the complainant deserves to be suspended.

Don't most companies have an anti-retaliation policy?

Isn't there legal issues involved? Retaliation against someone making such a complaint is banned in quite a few places.

That's what I would have thought - it's been part of the company handbook everywhere I've ever worked.

I can see why they'd want to get rid of her, but surely a generous payout backed with a compromise agreement including a strict NDA would be the right way to go?

I'm no HR expert or lawyer, but as part of management training I was always told

1) Separate the parties to the complaint without acting against them outside the process.
2) Call in HR and the lawyers
3) Do nothing clever

One out of three, then ?

isam

https://x.com/godblesstoto/status/1765770786999058911?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

biggles

david_herdson said:

biggles said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anabobazina said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunak is teasing labour and others desperate for a May election, when Autumn is still his choice

But it will make him look like a bottler.

I doubt when the GE is actually called it will matter

Gordon Brown would like to have a word with you.

To be fair, not calling an election when you've teased it, very obviously prepared for it, and are double-digits ahead, is a rather different business from not calling one when you're (substantial) double-digits behind and have already said it'll be in 2024H2.

Then why set the hare running by failing to rule it out? He could simply have answered: “No.”

Because he'd like to go in May if conditions allow.

Problem is, they won't.

Will “conditions allow” in November?

January 2025 it is then

I mean, under our constitution (lack of) it only takes a simple majority in the House to decide you don’t fancy having elections at all until “conditions allow”. 2030? 2040?

No it's not. The Lords retains its absolute right of veto on extending the length of a parliament, under the Parliament Act.

It's the only thing the Lords *does* have full veto powers on (although its 12-month veto is sufficient now for the rest of this parliament).

Yeah ok - “in both Houses”. But joking aside, it’s one of the few things that makes me want something a bit more fixed into a Constitution.

MattW

BartholomewRoberts said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.

https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

Actually you kind of prove my point here.

As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.

But those are averages. Averages mask variance.

Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.

Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.

We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.

Can we agree on that?

I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.

However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.

I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).

I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.

But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.

Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.

Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?

Alanbrooke

isam said:

https://x.com/godblesstoto/status/1765770786999058911?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

LOL

IanB2

Next, Ashleigh Butler, of Britain's Got Talent fame, with Sully....but five early faults and losing time..into sixth place. A disappointing performance

Foxy

I see Binface is fundraising for his deposit. Seems a sound manifesto:

https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1765669566552707164?t=LCDZ8UlSn5TGNuQ_RZiy_g&s=19

LostPassword

MattW said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.

https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

Actually you kind of prove my point here.

As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.

But those are averages. Averages mask variance.

Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.

Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.

We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.

Can we agree on that?

I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.

However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.

I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).

I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.

But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.

Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.

Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?

Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.

MoonRabbit

I’ve just come in. So Sunak hasn’t called the election yet? 🤷‍♀️

viewcode

Foxy said:

I see Binface is fundraising for his deposit. Seems a sound manifesto:

https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1765669566552707164?t=LCDZ8UlSn5TGNuQ_RZiy_g&s=19

Whereas the Conservative candidates are taking out enormous loans with the promise that they will pay them back with the proceeds of growth. Which is bound to happen, honest.

IanB2

Scout the Australian shepherd sets a high bar in the medium finals with a clear round at 32 secs

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November

Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely

williamglenn

MoonRabbit said:

I’ve just come in. So Sunak hasn’t called the election yet? 🤷‍♀️

You've given him until next Wednesday at 10:38.

Taz

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of £340.

The video is quite a stunner. https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

Had notification from Durham Constabulary today they were taking action against the motorist I reported, with film from my headcam, for jumping a red light. 👍

Sadly this one was not a Go North East driver this time.

MoonRabbit

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November

Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely

Do you have a date on that autumn statement/fiscal event?

williamglenn

IanB2 said:

Scout the Australian shepherd sets a high bar in the medium finals with a clear round at 32 secs

Is your dog participating?

noneoftheabove

LostPassword said:

MattW said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MattW said:

A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.

Here's one that came across my screen today.

Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.

The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.

https://youtu.be/38nxEB_w2m8?t=36

Actually you kind of prove my point here.

As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.

But those are averages. Averages mask variance.

Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.

Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.

We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.

Can we agree on that?

I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.

However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.

I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).

I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.

But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.

Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.

Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?

Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.

70 clearly the wrong number looking at the graph.

Would suggest tests (perhaps not full ones) at 80, 85, 90 and each year from then onwards.