Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November
Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely
The thing is you can’t change income tax part way through a tax year - the earliest would be April 2025 by which point Labour will be in, looked at the REAL figures and reversed it.
So Autumn could only be another cut to NI with a months notice and even that wouldn’t be seen until the end of November at the earliest unless the autumn statement was done in early September before the conferences
@PeterOuld What if the Government's plan is to hold an early (May) election if, and only if, the Rwanda Bill is held up by Parliamentary Process / the Lords? A kind of "the people vs the lefty immigration fans" thing?
Would let them have an ideological conflict linked to Brexit.
Sounds a bit desperate, but it might be worth a roll of the dice compared with other options. After all, this conflict around Brexit approach paid huge dividends for Boris in 2019.
I think they would need to promise to abolish Income Tax and VAT and offer a free owl as well.
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.
Surprised that females have more accidents than men in most age-groups (boy racers the major exception!)
I thought women were supposed to be safer drivers? Didn't they get cheaper insurance before that was deemed sexist and discriminatory, ergo illegal?
On my weekly visits to Sainsbury's, I'm often surprised by the number of cars showing evidence of low speed collisions. Car park dings, perhaps. Scuffed bumpers, dents in wings or doors, that sort of minor damage. Trouble is, I doubt this sort of thing would even make it to the statistics.
It may also be cost of repair (?), and perhaps because cars are getting fatter at approx 5mm per year. *
One place to look for frightening amounts of damage is in the railings around junctions that are designed to keep pedestrians out of the way. I have a big junction near here that has dozens and dozens of bent bits.
And in reports of vehicles being driven into shops and houses through the front walls.
My car is scuffed on two corners - but that is tight gateposts and a switch from a Vauxhall Corsa to a Skoda Superb Estate in one jump. I leave them there because it means extra work to sell it on if stolen - so a small chance of making a thief go for the shiny one in the next space.
Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November
Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely
The thing is you can’t change income tax part way through a tax year - the earliest would be April 2025 by which point Labour will be in, looked at the REAL figures and reversed it.
So Autumn could only be another cut to NI with a months notice and even that wouldn’t be seen until the end of November at the earliest unless the autumn statement was done in early September before the conferences
Indeed. They have run out of road.
Go on 2 May and try to claw back the polling deficit in the campaign.
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.
70 clearly the wrong number looking at the graph.
Would suggest tests (perhaps not full ones) at 80, 85, 90 and each year from then onwards.
Comparing to a population pyramid, each of M&F in the 17-24 age category are ~4.8%, whilst M85-89 are 0.6%, and F85-89 are 0.9%.
So that suggests a more thought through gradual accrual of driving privileges (eg after dusk from age 19 or 21), or post-test CDE (continuing driver education), might give good results. In addition to an improved eye-test regime (which is currently under consideration).
The 'gradual accrual of privileges' has been the case in Northern Ireland for a long time.
Newly-qualified drivers have to display 'R' plates and were, until recently, limited to a max speed of 45mph. Since 2016, that's now been replaced with the requirement to be accompanied by someone over the age of 21 when driving at night.
For all that, I don't see any noticeable difference in the stats - road traffic accident & fatality rates are both very similar to those in Scotland and Wales, with all three being higher than in England. Presumably that's a result of increased rural vs urban driving, more than anything else...
Rural roads have more casualties than urban ones by many measures - single track, blind bends, flat right angle bends in Norfolk just before dikes, 4x4 clubs playing Russian Roulette with swollen rivers, and so on.
When I put that graph on Twitter I suggested men should not get a driving license until age 25.
@PeterOuld What if the Government's plan is to hold an early (May) election if, and only if, the Rwanda Bill is held up by Parliamentary Process / the Lords? A kind of "the people vs the lefty immigration fans" thing?
Would let them have an ideological conflict linked to Brexit.
Sounds a bit desperate, but it might be worth a roll of the dice compared with other options. After all, this conflict around Brexit approach paid huge dividends for Boris in 2019.
I think they would need to promise to abolish Income Tax and VAT and offer a free owl as well.
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.
70 clearly the wrong number looking at the graph.
Would suggest tests (perhaps not full ones) at 80, 85, 90 and each year from then onwards.
Comparing to a population pyramid, each of M&F in the 17-24 age category are ~4.8%, whilst M85-89 are 0.6%, and F85-89 are 0.9%.
So that suggests a more thought through gradual accrual of driving privileges (eg after dusk from age 19 or 21), or post-test CDE (continuing driver education), might give good results. In addition to an improved eye-test regime (which is currently under consideration).
The 'gradual accrual of privileges' has been the case in Northern Ireland for a long time.
Newly-qualified drivers have to display 'R' plates and were, until recently, limited to a max speed of 45mph. Since 2016, that's now been replaced with the requirement to be accompanied by someone over the age of 21 when driving at night.
For all that, I don't see any noticeable difference in the stats - road traffic accident & fatality rates are both very similar to those in Scotland and Wales, with all three being higher than in England. Presumably that's a result of increased rural vs urban driving, more than anything else...
Rural roads have more casualties than urban ones by many measures - single track, blind bends, flat right angle bends in Norfolk just before dikes, 4x4 clubs playing Russian Roulette with swollen rivers, and so on.
When I put that graph on Twitter I suggested men should not get a driving license until age 25.
*Innocent face*
Have you seen how much insurance is for young drivers ?
Now the PM tells BBC: "I was very clear about this at the beginning of the year about my working assumption for the election being in the second half of the year – nothing has changed since then."
Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November
Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely
SkyNews political team seemed to make a call very early yesterday on can’t be an election before another fiscal event, and then go looking for and creating things to suit that narrative, and I think poor political journalism, that does not think out of the box much just relies on the old painting by numbers - you always hang on for better economic news - misleads too many PBers.
Maybe sky news will learn from this mistake, in future read PB more often and take notes from my analysis. 😇
I am very interested in how you will react if it is not 2nd May
You have rather painted yourself into a corner
I have a special talent for understanding politics, I can’t possibly be wrong 😇
But I only knew I was 100% right from about Monday this week when I went looking for all the April meetings and events that’s been cancelled, fairly enough to stop people setting them up and booking travelling and hotels.
Sure there are Labour rampers on this site, ramping May 2nd from a Labour perspective - I don’t know why though, Autumn election after the boat surge, covid report and million voters signing higher mortgage deals gets Labour much much much better result.
And sure there are Tory sympathisers wishing to poo poo a May election for the same irrational feelings as the Labour ones getting excited - and again I don’t know why, for the Tories dodge a bullet with the May 2nd election. The Tories are in a completely false position in the polls right now, the picture changes dramatically for them in a forced choice election in May, those Reform totals only existed for about 18 months, so many of those voters can be won back by the Tories now as well as the don’t knows, but not so after the summer boat surge and covid report and higher mortgages, each pointing to the three great failures of the 2019-2024 government.
I only posted this stuff based on finding evidence, and accompanied with analysis, explanations and my workings out of why I believe it.
I’m now going to focus on the PV and seat totals from May election, and as many winners I can tip at the festival. 🙋♀️
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
Not breaking the law?
Uninsured - illegal. Untaxed - illegal. No MOT - illegal.
You literally named three laws broken before you even got to the video. Before anything happened.
Anyone using a phone handheld in their car is breaking the law too.
People driving with insurance in a taxed, legal car with an MOT is a different matter. Sorry if it damages my piratical reputation but I follow the law with all the above, plus I have my phone docked legally and connected to Bluetooth legally too.
Now the PM tells BBC: "I was very clear about this at the beginning of the year about my working assumption for the election being in the second half of the year – nothing has changed since then."
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.
70 clearly the wrong number looking at the graph.
Would suggest tests (perhaps not full ones) at 80, 85, 90 and each year from then onwards.
Comparing to a population pyramid, each of M&F in the 17-24 age category are ~4.8%, whilst M85-89 are 0.6%, and F85-89 are 0.9%.
So that suggests a more thought through gradual accrual of driving privileges (eg after dusk from age 19 or 21), or post-test CDE (continuing driver education), might give good results. In addition to an improved eye-test regime (which is currently under consideration).
The 'gradual accrual of privileges' has been the case in Northern Ireland for a long time.
Newly-qualified drivers have to display 'R' plates and were, until recently, limited to a max speed of 45mph. Since 2016, that's now been replaced with the requirement to be accompanied by someone over the age of 21 when driving at night.
For all that, I don't see any noticeable difference in the stats - road traffic accident & fatality rates are both very similar to those in Scotland and Wales, with all three being higher than in England. Presumably that's a result of increased rural vs urban driving, more than anything else...
Rural roads have more casualties than urban ones by many measures - single track, blind bends, flat right angle bends in Norfolk just before dikes, 4x4 clubs playing Russian Roulette with swollen rivers, and so on.
When I put that graph on Twitter I suggested men should not get a driving license until age 25.
*Innocent face*
Have you seen how much insurance is for young drivers ?
Yes. A lot. There's also been quite a decline in % of 17-20s holding a driving license. It's not far off being a sea-change, but not there yet.
Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November
Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely
SkyNews political team seemed to make a call very early yesterday on can’t be an election before another fiscal event, and then go looking for and creating things to suit that narrative, and I think poor political journalism, that does not think out of the box much just relies on the old painting by numbers - you always hang on for better economic news - misleads too many PBers.
Maybe sky news will learn from this mistake, in future read PB more often and take notes from my analysis. 😇
I am very interested in how you will react if it is not 2nd May
You have rather painted yourself into a corner
I have a special talent for understanding politics, I can’t possibly be wrong 😇
But I only knew I was 100% right from about Monday this week when I went looking for all the April meetings and events that’s been cancelled, fairly enough to stop people setting them up and booking travelling and hotels.
Sure there are Labour rampers on this site, ramping May 2nd from a Labour perspective - I don’t know why though, Autumn election after the boat surge, covid report and million voters signing higher mortgage deals gets Labour much much much better result.
And sure there are Tory sympathisers wishing to poo poo a May election for the same irrational feelings as the Labour ones getting excited - and again I don’t know why, for the Tories dodge a bullet with the May 2nd election. The Tories are in a completely false position in the polls right now, the picture changes dramatically for them in a forced choice election in May, those Reform totals only existed for about 18 months, so many of those voters can be won back by the Tories now as well as the don’t knows, but not so after the summer boat surge and covid report and higher mortgages, each pointing to the three great failures of the 2019-2024 government.
I only posted this stuff based on finding evidence, and accompanied with analysis, explanations and my workings out of why I believe it.
I’m now going to focus on the PV and seat totals from May election, and as many winners I can tip at the festival. 🙋♀️
Fair enough but it is conservative mps who are saying autumn and they do have some input
Police misconduct should be dealt with “behind closed doors” and problems in Britain’s biggest force are the result of individual “bad ’uns”, the Conservative London mayoral candidate has said.
In a leaked recording, Susan Hall can be heard telling backers that she would “support [the Met] completely in front of other people”, adding: “If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”
Hall also suggested that problems of sexism and misogyny in the Met are down to “bad ’uns” and “wrong ’uns”. This runs counter to the central finding of Baroness Casey’s review of the Met, which concluded that the force was institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic...
...The leaked remarks were made at a campaign event for Hall in January, during which she was challenged on her approach to the Met by a member of the audience who warned her against failing to publicly recognise the need for reform.
In response, Hall replied: “There have been some disgraceful episodes, you’re quite right. And they are now rooting out the bad ’uns, if you like. There’s 250 that are on suspension, not allowed to work and there’s about 1,000 that are being watched. Totally not good enough … Having said that, if you’re running a business, if you want things to go well with your staff, you support them completely in front of other people.
“If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”
Hall went on to praise the majority of Met officers who feel “battered and bruised” by the criticism directed at the force in recent years, adding: “And some of the wrong ’uns are the ones that have gotten a bad reputation. So I will continue to support [the majority].
“But what I say to the commissioner behind closed doors will stay behind closed doors. But I promise you, we will get results. It will be much, much better under a Hall mayoralty.”
Hall’s campaign slogan is “Safer with Susan” and she has been deeply critical of the current Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s record on policing. The former leader of Harrow council was selected by the Conservative Party to fight the City Hall election this May.
A Conservative source said the remarks risked sending relations between the Met and the public “back to square one”.
They said: “To tackle the deep-rooted issues in the Met police you need to first actually tackle the problem and also regain the trust of the public. To do that you have to call out bad behaviour publicly and to suggest she won’t say that anything is wrong is worrying. Susan has to show the public she understands the depth of the problem.”
There is some good news in the world. The chances of a nuclear war have gone down to zero as global nuclear disarmament is nigh. The actors are finally on the case. Nobody says no to Emma Thompson, not even Vlad.
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.
Surprised that females have more accidents than men in most age-groups (boy racers the major exception!)
I thought women were supposed to be safer drivers? Didn't they get cheaper insurance before that was deemed sexist and discriminatory, ergo illegal?
I wondered whether one effect was due to recently widowed women finding themselves driving a lot more than they were previously.
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
The age-sex split is fascinating. The numbers of elderly males and females shouldn't matter if it's normalised (as it appears) to miles driven. But maybe it's older males doing longer/safer motorway trips with partner to see family whereas the females left alone are doing more hazardous shorter trips on more dangerous roads?
Historically, which maybe feeds into the figures, there was a tendency for males to do more of the driving, which maybe reduced female driving skills/awareness at older ages. If so, you'd expect that effect to drop out over time.
Re the video you posted, I've only seen the video and not context, but I did wonder whether the driver simply cocked up, was too fast/not paying enough attention and came up on the minibus suddenly, in panic veered on to the grass and then - unable to really brake on the verge - ended up doing the multiple undertaking. You'd have thought he would instead have moved into the other lane, but verge may have been a panic reaction if uncertain if the road ahead was clear.
The part of the brain that assesses risk is not fully developed until age 25. Spatial awareness reduces after age 60, and markedly so after age 70. Over 75 women are of a generation that let their male partners drive them, especially for long journeys.
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
Police misconduct should be dealt with “behind closed doors” and problems in Britain’s biggest force are the result of individual “bad ’uns”, the Conservative London mayoral candidate has said.
In a leaked recording, Susan Hall can be heard telling backers that she would “support [the Met] completely in front of other people”, adding: “If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”
Hall also suggested that problems of sexism and misogyny in the Met are down to “bad ’uns” and “wrong ’uns”. This runs counter to the central finding of Baroness Casey’s review of the Met, which concluded that the force was institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic...
...The leaked remarks were made at a campaign event for Hall in January, during which she was challenged on her approach to the Met by a member of the audience who warned her against failing to publicly recognise the need for reform.
In response, Hall replied: “There have been some disgraceful episodes, you’re quite right. And they are now rooting out the bad ’uns, if you like. There’s 250 that are on suspension, not allowed to work and there’s about 1,000 that are being watched. Totally not good enough … Having said that, if you’re running a business, if you want things to go well with your staff, you support them completely in front of other people.
“If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”
Hall went on to praise the majority of Met officers who feel “battered and bruised” by the criticism directed at the force in recent years, adding: “And some of the wrong ’uns are the ones that have gotten a bad reputation. So I will continue to support [the majority].
“But what I say to the commissioner behind closed doors will stay behind closed doors. But I promise you, we will get results. It will be much, much better under a Hall mayoralty.”
Hall’s campaign slogan is “Safer with Susan” and she has been deeply critical of the current Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s record on policing. The former leader of Harrow council was selected by the Conservative Party to fight the City Hall election this May.
A Conservative source said the remarks risked sending relations between the Met and the public “back to square one”.
They said: “To tackle the deep-rooted issues in the Met police you need to first actually tackle the problem and also regain the trust of the public. To do that you have to call out bad behaviour publicly and to suggest she won’t say that anything is wrong is worrying. Susan has to show the public she understands the depth of the problem.”
How many police officers, family and friends have a vote in the Mayoral election?
Not as many as you might think - hard to afford London rents on police salary, so in 2017, 56% of MPS officers lived outside greater London.
In theory, there's a 'London Residency Criteria' that means that new recruits need to have lived in London for at least three of the last six years, but that keeps being suspended because of a shortage of applicants.
Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November
Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely
The thing is you can’t change income tax part way through a tax year - the earliest would be April 2025 by which point Labour will be in, looked at the REAL figures and reversed it.
So Autumn could only be another cut to NI with a months notice and even that wouldn’t be seen until the end of November at the earliest unless the autumn statement was done in early September before the conferences
Early September has been suggested
What about August, when families are on holiday, but oldies are at home, awaiting cheaper deals in September?
Love the quote of the week on this week's Popbitch, I can so relate to this.
"My parents sent me to a private school, I had no choice in that. They sent me there and it's the cross I have to bear" - Jamie Laing
An unusual acknowledged theft from the other PB, Mr Eagles.
They once used my submission for the Old Jokes Home.
I had various stories published in the early days and was a regular on their forum while it existed.
That forum managed to last through 9:11 when few other sites did
Tis rather ironic that the place I post most often nowadays is this PB
I keep on meaning to go to one of the Popbitch events.
It has been a regular part of my life for 25 years.
The best night out I ever had was with the Rev Goatboy (R.I.P) in London - I suspect it was one even Leon couldn’t match featuring both Lemmy and Peter Stringfellow (at different points of the evening).
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says.
Surprised that females have more accidents than men in most age-groups (boy racers the major exception!)
I thought women were supposed to be safer drivers? Didn't they get cheaper insurance before that was deemed sexist and discriminatory, ergo illegal?
Could be to do with severity of the incidents?
It's like an interesting statistic I learnt recently.
Women are twice as likely to have mental health problems as men. Women are much more likely to self-harm than men.
Yet men are about twice about twice as likely to die from self-harm than women.
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
Police misconduct should be dealt with “behind closed doors” and problems in Britain’s biggest force are the result of individual “bad ’uns”, the Conservative London mayoral candidate has said.
In a leaked recording, Susan Hall can be heard telling backers that she would “support [the Met] completely in front of other people”, adding: “If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”
Hall also suggested that problems of sexism and misogyny in the Met are down to “bad ’uns” and “wrong ’uns”. This runs counter to the central finding of Baroness Casey’s review of the Met, which concluded that the force was institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic...
...The leaked remarks were made at a campaign event for Hall in January, during which she was challenged on her approach to the Met by a member of the audience who warned her against failing to publicly recognise the need for reform.
In response, Hall replied: “There have been some disgraceful episodes, you’re quite right. And they are now rooting out the bad ’uns, if you like. There’s 250 that are on suspension, not allowed to work and there’s about 1,000 that are being watched. Totally not good enough … Having said that, if you’re running a business, if you want things to go well with your staff, you support them completely in front of other people.
“If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”
Hall went on to praise the majority of Met officers who feel “battered and bruised” by the criticism directed at the force in recent years, adding: “And some of the wrong ’uns are the ones that have gotten a bad reputation. So I will continue to support [the majority].
“But what I say to the commissioner behind closed doors will stay behind closed doors. But I promise you, we will get results. It will be much, much better under a Hall mayoralty.”
Hall’s campaign slogan is “Safer with Susan” and she has been deeply critical of the current Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s record on policing. The former leader of Harrow council was selected by the Conservative Party to fight the City Hall election this May.
A Conservative source said the remarks risked sending relations between the Met and the public “back to square one”.
They said: “To tackle the deep-rooted issues in the Met police you need to first actually tackle the problem and also regain the trust of the public. To do that you have to call out bad behaviour publicly and to suggest she won’t say that anything is wrong is worrying. Susan has to show the public she understands the depth of the problem.”
A little FPT: I'm baffled by the ingrowing complacency of some on PB with respect to road safety. It's not as if we can't vastly improve it with fairly minor changes.
Here's one that came across my screen today.
Dangerous driver in an uninsured, untaxed, un-MOTd vehicle barely avoiding killing someone because of his impatience to save a few seconds. An army soldier who has access to guns. He also plainly lied on oath, so I expect his army career will be as a Private.
The sentence? 12 month ban and a fine of just over £500.
As discussed per mile of a car driving there's no fatalities until you get to nine significant figures, that's how incredibly safe our roads are.
But those are averages. Averages mask variance.
Law abiding, legal drivers are even safer than that.
Criminals who break the law are more dangerous by far.
We should clamp down more on the criminals, and less on the law abiding.
Can we agree on that?
I agree with most of that - certainly to a crackdown on criminals.
However I'd say the guy in the 4x4 in the video (who nearly rolled when he put it sideways on the verge as well) is a young-lad-who-thinks-he's-immortal-and-did-not-think-of-possible-consequences (he's 25) rather than a 'criminal'.
I know something about this because I spun my parents' car off a frosted traffic island at the age of 17 years and 8 months (no injuries, bent but driveable). My sister did exactly the same thing with my first car 12 months later (no injuries, bent but driveable).
I'm not sure what "law abiding" means in this context, when perhaps 70-80% of people who drive vehicles admit to breaking various laws in any 12 month period.
But I think that dividing it into 'others', such as 'criminals', 'drunk drivers' etc, and 'us', distracts from the very significant elements caused by laziness, carelessness and complacency amongst the 'normal' driving population - for example people who can get a phone cradle from Amazon for £5, but don't bother and do hand-held phone calls instead - at a much higher risk level. Me, I switch my phone off and put it in the glovebox.
Much of this statistical, and amenable to analysis and targeted adjustments.
Here's an example of an opportunity to target high risk groups. Fatals per distance driven, segmented by age and sex. On the LHS I'd say it's testosterone, male showing off and trying to pull women. On the RHS it's mainly more old women living than old men, but 85+ year old males seem to have disproportionate numbers of casualty collisions compared to the 1/3 of the age group they comprise- I wonder why?
Not breaking the law?
Uninsured - illegal. Untaxed - illegal. No MOT - illegal.
You literally named three laws broken before you even got to the video. Before anything happened.
Anyone using a phone handheld in their car is breaking the law too.
People driving with insurance in a taxed, legal car with an MOT is a different matter. Sorry if it damages my piratical reputation but I follow the law with all the above, plus I have my phone docked legally and connected to Bluetooth legally too.
You are right on the first one - my mistake, I was probably thinking of self-perception. I wonder if he sees himself as a Jack-the-Lad rather than a criminal?
I think the point about blame being placed on 'othered' groups, whilst ignoring rule-breaking perceived as small by 'people like me' is an important one.
Antisocial parking is one example of this imo. The focus is on "what I need NOW" rather than impact on neighbours or others. *
The trend aiui with phones is still a perception for many that this is not a problem. On social media the demand that this is OK is quite scary - albeit some of that is trolling-for-fun.
I don't have you down as a pirate. Arrrr.
* Piccie from Google of a road near me. They asked for parking bays in 2018, and got them, but they still park on the pavement. That is a major walking route from the main local park to the shops, which is blocked - you can see the crossing island at the RHS.
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
It is interesting tonight that for the first time the IFS is attacking both conservative and labour for not telling the truth to the electorate
In the conservative case of more tax cuts which services are to be cut, and labour if they want to spend which taxes are they going to increase
Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November
Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely
The thing is you can’t change income tax part way through a tax year - the earliest would be April 2025 by which point Labour will be in, looked at the REAL figures and reversed it.
So Autumn could only be another cut to NI with a months notice and even that wouldn’t be seen until the end of November at the earliest unless the autumn statement was done in early September before the conferences
Early September has been suggested
What about August, when families are on holiday, but oldies are at home, awaiting cheaper deals in September?
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
'On J Vine show, Sunak refuses to rule out May election: "I'm not going to say anything extra about that. What matters is the choice at that election... our plans are working, of course there is more work to do but we are starting to deliver the change that people want to see."'
Sky saying Sunak promised that the standard rate tax would be at 19% by the end of the parliament and conservative mps expect an Autumn statement reducing the tax to 19% before going to a GE in October or November
Sky's presenter commented it looks more and more likely
SkyNews political team seemed to make a call very early yesterday on can’t be an election before another fiscal event, and then go looking for and creating things to suit that narrative, and I think poor political journalism, that does not think out of the box much just relies on the old painting by numbers - you always hang on for better economic news - misleads too many PBers.
Maybe sky news will learn from this mistake, in future read PB more often and take notes from my analysis. 😇
I am very interested in how you will react if it is not 2nd May
You have rather painted yourself into a corner
I have a special talent for understanding politics..
Wow, there won't be any unintended consequences of that, I'm sure.
Wokery has gone off the deep-end over there.
Talking of which, and it’s not a brand I’m personally au fait with, Victorias Secret apparently went woke and the results are in. The Bud light effect. Share price tumbled today.
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
'On J Vine show, Sunak refuses to rule out May election: "I'm not going to say anything extra about that. What matters is the choice at that election... our plans are working, of course there is more work to do but we are starting to deliver the change that people want to see."'
And. Nothing there proves he is bottling an election in May or offering one. Why would he rule one out or in on a crap show like the Jeremy Vine show.
I cannot believe I’m wasting my time on this retarded, partisan, attempt at point scoring from labour. They are trying to create the impression of the,Tories bottling an election when the Tories have never said they are going for it. Enough of this crap.
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
There you go again! What on God’s Green Earth has this discussion got to do with cash? Sod all. You are obsessed.
Back from my travels and back to local elections. As well as the Lewisham mayoral we also have a PC defence in Bridgend, a Lab defence in Glasgow, and an Ind elected as Con defence in Mid Devon. Last night there was an Ind defence in Carmarthenshire.
I am 85, and in indifferent health. I am unlikely to see an election after this next one, but I really would like to cast one more vote, not for the Tories, Labour, or Reform UK.
The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
'On J Vine show, Sunak refuses to rule out May election: "I'm not going to say anything extra about that. What matters is the choice at that election... our plans are working, of course there is more work to do but we are starting to deliver the change that people want to see."'
And. Nothing there proves he is bottling an election in May or offering one. Why would he rule one out or in on a crap show like the Jeremy Vine show.
I cannot believe I’m wasting my time on this retarded, partisan, attempt at point scoring from labour. They are trying to create the impression of the,Tories bottling an election when the Tories have never said they are going for it. Enough of this crap.
not expecting this of course but at 33/1 ladbrokes are offering the tories to lose between 1 and 50 seats . There must be at least a 3% chance the tories will rally enough for this - value bet imo
And the outcome of the judging from tonight’s Utility Dog competition…the winner is the (ugly little) French Bulldog. Runner up is the Tibetan Spaniel. The very well groomed Tibetan Terrier takes fourth.
So the utility category has been won by a dog with remarkably little utility.
I am 85, and in indifferent health. I am unlikely to see an election after this next one, but I really would like to cast one more vote, not for the Tories, Labour, or Reform UK.
Earliest possible date please.
In the absolutely nicest possible way I hope you get your wish and then four or five years later regret this vote and decide to vote Tory again and then can protest again the election after that.
Sunak is clearly aiming for an autumn general election but why would he confirm the date for Labour?
Indeed, part of the warp and weft of politics is misinformation about the date of an election. One might argue it's one of the few real decisions the Prime Minister has wholly within his or her purview. It may be @MoonRabbit is right and there's a master plan leading to May 2nd but I don't see it - the Budget didn't suggest it. The message seemed to be a little more jam today and a lot more jam in the autumn.
Budget Day is one of those occasions where the Government gets wall-to-wall publicity and attention - responding to the Budget is arguably the most difficult part of the LOTO's role in Parliament though the predictable leaking of so many of the key measures in advance makes the job easier than it was or perhaps should be.
On a complete tangent, with Cheltenham next week, you might be forgiven all is well in the world of jump racing currently. While ITV Racing luxuriates at the top end of the sport, I was at Lingfield on a damp Tuesday afternoon to watch 25 runners go round in 6 races. As with many sports, it may be tough at the top but it's a lot tougher at the bottom.
London nightlife under Khan, and the imams and nimbies of gloom
“In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.
Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”
Give it 20 years Leon and you will be out praying at the mosque to get some excitement.
I’m done with London. It’s over
Hang on, you haven't visited all 612 train stations in London!
Do you have to get out at every one, or does traveling through count?
Of course you have to alight at a station to visit it! Ideally, to "properly" do it, taking a picture of the platforms (direction A, direction B ), station name sign, and station building/entrance
And the outcome of the judging from tonight’s Utility Dog competition…the winner is the (ugly little) French Bulldog. Runner up is the Tibetan Spaniel. The very well groomed Tibetan Terrier takes fourth.
So the utility category has been won by a dog with remarkably little utility.
No Miniature Schnauzers in the top four? It’s a fix, I tell ya!
Sunak is clearly aiming for an autumn general election but why would he confirm the date for Labour?
Indeed, part of the warp and weft of politics is misinformation about the date of an election. One might argue it's one of the few real decisions the Prime Minister has wholly within his or her purview. It may be @MoonRabbit is right and there's a master plan leading to May 2nd but I don't see it - the Budget didn't suggest it. The message seemed to be a little more jam today and a lot more jam in the autumn.
Budget Day is one of those occasions where the Government gets wall-to-wall publicity and attention - responding to the Budget is arguably the most difficult part of the LOTO's role in Parliament though the predictable leaking of so many of the key measures in advance makes the job easier than it was or perhaps should be.
The problem is there is no jam that can be delivered in the Autumn beyond another NI cut (because that's a periodic rather than annual tax).
Edit - to add and next week you will see how little impact this weeks tax cuts have had on the likelihood of people voting Tory...
London nightlife under Khan, and the imams and nimbies of gloom
“In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.
Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”
Give it 20 years Leon and you will be out praying at the mosque to get some excitement.
I’m done with London. It’s over
Hang on, you haven't visited all 612 train stations in London!
Do you have to get out at every one, or does traveling through count?
Of course you have to alight at a station to visit it! Ideally, to "properly" do it, taking a picture of the platforms (direction A, direction B ), station name sign, and station building/entrance
On a complete tangent, with Cheltenham next week, you might be forgiven all is well in the world of jump racing currently. While ITV Racing luxuriates at the top end of the sport, I was at Lingfield on a damp Tuesday afternoon to watch 25 runners go round in 6 races. As with many sports, it may be tough at the top but it's a lot tougher at the bottom.
And the outcome of the judging from tonight’s Utility Dog competition…the winner is the (ugly little) French Bulldog. Runner up is the Tibetan Spaniel. The very well groomed Tibetan Terrier takes fourth.
So the utility category has been won by a dog with remarkably little utility.
No Miniature Schnauzers in the top four? It’s a fix, I tell ya!
The French Bulldog is a dog for people who don’t actually want a dog. Shame on Crufts for putting it through to Sunday’s final.
On a complete tangent, with Cheltenham next week, you might be forgiven all is well in the world of jump racing currently. While ITV Racing luxuriates at the top end of the sport, I was at Lingfield on a damp Tuesday afternoon to watch 25 runners go round in 6 races. As with many sports, it may be tough at the top but it's a lot tougher at the bottom.
Lossiemouth confirmed for champion hurdle. 🐎
With Ballyburn going for the Gallagher rather than the Supreme, we can see Mullins moving his pieces round the board. I think he rates Ashroe Diamond who will presumably be a short price for the Mares.
Police misconduct should be dealt with “behind closed doors” and problems in Britain’s biggest force are the result of individual “bad ’uns”, the Conservative London mayoral candidate has said.
In a leaked recording, Susan Hall can be heard telling backers that she would “support [the Met] completely in front of other people”, adding: “If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”
Hall also suggested that problems of sexism and misogyny in the Met are down to “bad ’uns” and “wrong ’uns”. This runs counter to the central finding of Baroness Casey’s review of the Met, which concluded that the force was institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic...
...The leaked remarks were made at a campaign event for Hall in January, during which she was challenged on her approach to the Met by a member of the audience who warned her against failing to publicly recognise the need for reform.
In response, Hall replied: “There have been some disgraceful episodes, you’re quite right. And they are now rooting out the bad ’uns, if you like. There’s 250 that are on suspension, not allowed to work and there’s about 1,000 that are being watched. Totally not good enough … Having said that, if you’re running a business, if you want things to go well with your staff, you support them completely in front of other people.
“If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”
Hall went on to praise the majority of Met officers who feel “battered and bruised” by the criticism directed at the force in recent years, adding: “And some of the wrong ’uns are the ones that have gotten a bad reputation. So I will continue to support [the majority].
“But what I say to the commissioner behind closed doors will stay behind closed doors. But I promise you, we will get results. It will be much, much better under a Hall mayoralty.”
Hall’s campaign slogan is “Safer with Susan” and she has been deeply critical of the current Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s record on policing. The former leader of Harrow council was selected by the Conservative Party to fight the City Hall election this May.
A Conservative source said the remarks risked sending relations between the Met and the public “back to square one”.
They said: “To tackle the deep-rooted issues in the Met police you need to first actually tackle the problem and also regain the trust of the public. To do that you have to call out bad behaviour publicly and to suggest she won’t say that anything is wrong is worrying. Susan has to show the public she understands the depth of the problem.”
I don't see how what she's saying is particularly unreasonable. I find that 'thought leaders' in politics and the civil service are always using individual shocking newsmaking events to instigate massive and not necessarily positive institutional changes that they wanted to make anyway. Yes, the Met does need to be sorted, and far greater rigour applied to appointments, but it is far from self-evident that a huge public process ending with (to give some examples) tokenistic public displays of 'respect' toward women, active discrimination toward women in recruitment, and the criminalisation of wolf whistling, is the best way forward. Just stopping employing criminals and known perverts as policemen should do the trick.
John Major called the 1992 election on 11 March, the day after the budget, with polling day on 9 April, so Sunak's already missed his chance to repeat that strategy.
Congrats tud btw. You've palmed him off on us again!
Not entirely comfortable tbh, yet again he’s probably sucked in some quite decent people into his shenanigans. Hopefully won’t be for too long.
Hope not. The truth is, I'm looking forward hugely to the Labour landslide (Oct, I think) but I'm actually pretty depressed about politics in general atm. Right wing populism all over the place, appealing to all the baser instincts. We all have them but jesus let's not celebrate them and pretend it's the way to go. Trump is a coin toss ffs, just can't believe that, and although I hope (and semi expect) Starmer proves more radical in office than people think I do miss the 'edge' of the Corbyn era. I want that back with a more intelligent modern skillful leader. And preferably no beard.
Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.
"I know that we could have made it We had ideas in our heads"
And the outcome of the judging from tonight’s Utility Dog competition…the winner is the (ugly little) French Bulldog. Runner up is the Tibetan Spaniel. The very well groomed Tibetan Terrier takes fourth.
So the utility category has been won by a dog with remarkably little utility.
No Miniature Schnauzers in the top four? It’s a fix, I tell ya!
The French Bulldog is a dog for people who don’t actually want a dog. Shame on Crufts for putting it through to Sunday’s final.
It's a *utility dog*?! A breed which is positively pathological? I'll say it's for owners who don't want or like dogs, with the breathing problems.
Comments
He came third.
One place to look for frightening amounts of damage is in the railings around junctions that are designed to keep pedestrians out of the way. I have a big junction near here that has dozens and dozens of bent bits.
And in reports of vehicles being driven into shops and houses through the front walls.
My car is scuffed on two corners - but that is tight gateposts and a switch from a Vauxhall Corsa to a Skoda Superb Estate in one jump. I leave them there because it means extra work to sell it on if stolen - so a small chance of making a thief go for the shiny one in the next space.
* https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240207-are-cars-getting-too-big-for-the-road
https://ballotbox.scot/preview-hillhead/
Go on 2 May and try to claw back the polling deficit in the campaign.
> Is the crack (in at least one sense) Trump legal team moonlighting in UK?
> OR have some of those wonderful (ditto) PO prosecutors migrated over to the Cabinet Office?
As far as the notorious beergate is concerned Starmer was investigated and cleared, so justice was seen to be done
When I put that graph on Twitter I suggested men should not get a driving license until age 25.
*Innocent face*
That forum managed to last through 9:11 when few other sites did
Tis rather ironic that the place I post most often nowadays is this PB
But I only knew I was 100% right from about Monday this week when I went looking for all the April meetings and events that’s been cancelled, fairly enough to stop people setting them up and booking travelling and hotels.
Sure there are Labour rampers on this site, ramping May 2nd from a Labour perspective - I don’t know why though, Autumn election after the boat surge, covid report and million voters signing higher mortgage deals gets Labour much much much better result.
And sure there are Tory sympathisers wishing to poo poo a May election for the same irrational feelings as the Labour ones getting excited - and again I don’t know why, for the Tories dodge a bullet with the May 2nd election. The Tories are in a completely false position in the polls right now, the picture changes dramatically for them in a forced choice election in May, those Reform totals only existed for about 18 months, so many of those voters can be won back by the Tories now as well as the don’t knows, but not so after the summer boat surge and covid report and higher mortgages, each pointing to the three great failures of the 2019-2024 government.
I only posted this stuff based on finding evidence, and accompanied with analysis, explanations and my workings out of why I believe it.
I’m now going to focus on the PV and seat totals from May election, and as many winners I can tip at the festival. 🙋♀️
Uninsured - illegal.
Untaxed - illegal.
No MOT - illegal.
You literally named three laws broken before you even got to the video. Before anything happened.
Anyone using a phone handheld in their car is breaking the law too.
People driving with insurance in a taxed, legal car with an MOT is a different matter. Sorry if it damages my piratical reputation but I follow the law with all the above, plus I have my phone docked legally and connected to Bluetooth legally too.
It has been a regular part of my life for 25 years.
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2024/mar/06/hollywood-nuclear-disarmament-letter-oppenheimer
Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10
Spatial awareness reduces after age 60, and markedly so after age 70. Over 75 women are of a generation that let their male partners drive them, especially for long journeys.
Mary L. Trump - Mike Johnson’s Russian Funder
https://marytrump.substack.com/p/mike-johnsons-russian-funder
SSI - So is Speaker/Preacher Mike Johnson, a Southern Baptist version of his sur-namesake, Boris Johnson?
Both (allegedly) benefited from Russian political donations. AND both are endorsing Donald Trump for POTUS in 2024.
Coincidence? Kismet? Or WFT?
https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-to-become-ukrainian-ambassador-to-uk/
In theory, there's a 'London Residency Criteria' that means that new recruits need to have lived in London for at least three of the last six years, but that keeps being suspended because of a shortage of applicants.
https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/what-london-assembly-does/questions-mayor/find-an-answer/police-officers-place-residence
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/07/justin-trudeau-canada-legislation-hate-crimes-free-speech/
It's like an interesting statistic I learnt recently.
Women are twice as likely to have mental health problems as men.
Women are much more likely to self-harm than men.
Yet men are about twice about twice as likely to die from self-harm than women.
Wokery has gone off the deep-end over there.
In Chicago, answer would be 100% at least for CPD officers, because they are required to be Chicago residents.
Leading to at least one "cop" neighborhood just inside the city limits.
I think the point about blame being placed on 'othered' groups, whilst ignoring rule-breaking perceived as small by 'people like me' is an important one.
Antisocial parking is one example of this imo. The focus is on "what I need NOW" rather than impact on neighbours or others. *
The trend aiui with phones is still a perception for many that this is not a problem. On social media the demand that this is OK is quite scary - albeit some of that is trolling-for-fun.
I don't have you down as a pirate. Arrrr.
* Piccie from Google of a road near me. They asked for parking bays in 2018, and got them, but they still park on the pavement. That is a major walking route from the main local park to the shops, which is blocked - you can see the crossing island at the RHS.
In the conservative case of more tax cuts which services are to be cut, and labour if they want to spend which taxes are they going to increase
I cannot believe I’m wasting my time on this retarded, partisan, attempt at point scoring from labour. They are trying to create the impression of the,Tories bottling an election when the Tories have never said they are going for it. Enough of this crap.
In short it is ok to abuse the privately educated but it isn't ok to denigrate the working classes.
Earliest possible date please.
https://x.com/molmutius/status/1763656082314944947?s=61
So the utility category has been won by a dog with remarkably little utility.
Budget Day is one of those occasions where the Government gets wall-to-wall publicity and attention - responding to the Budget is arguably the most difficult part of the LOTO's role in Parliament though the predictable leaking of so many of the key measures in advance makes the job easier than it was or perhaps should be.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902
An interesting genre of art.
https://x.com/itstaz1989/status/1765729265310470213?s=61
Edit - to add and next week you will see how little impact this weeks tax cuts have had on the likelihood of people voting Tory...
Would Sunak favour a short one or a long one?
Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.
"I know that we could have made it
We had ideas in our heads"
✊️🙂