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What is Sunak up to? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Very odd

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765843754643034579

    U.S. and British embassies in Moscow warn that "extremists" have "imminent plans" to target "large gatherings."

    https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-avoid-large-gatherings-over-the-next-48-hours/

    The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.

    It's almost as if someone doesn't want a repeat of the Navalny funeral. Just as well that Putins security have their interests at heart.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Very odd

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765843754643034579

    U.S. and British embassies in Moscow warn that "extremists" have "imminent plans" to target "large gatherings."

    https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-avoid-large-gatherings-over-the-next-48-hours/

    The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.

    By 'extremists' do they mean the government?
    There are a few possibilities:

    - They have intelligence about a false flag being planned by Russia
    - They have intelligence about a Ukrainian group planning a terrorist attack
    - They have intelligence about one of the usual suspects
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Foxy said:

    Very odd

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765843754643034579

    U.S. and British embassies in Moscow warn that "extremists" have "imminent plans" to target "large gatherings."

    https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-avoid-large-gatherings-over-the-next-48-hours/

    The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.

    It's almost as if someone doesn't want a repeat of the Navalny funeral. Just as well that Putins security have their interests at heart.
    I wonder what sort of turnout figure/score for Putin would imply a real risk to him? Clearly he will win the election, and he probably would even if it was fairly run, but a really depressed turnout or opposition votes at a level beyond the norm would be interesting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Biden to announce US will build port on Gaza shore for large-scale aid delivery
    President to make announcement in State of the Union speech while senior US official says ‘We are not waiting on the Israelis’
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/07/biden-us-port-gaza-aid-delivery
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Nigelb said:

    Biden to announce US will build port on Gaza shore for large-scale aid delivery
    President to make announcement in State of the Union speech while senior US official says ‘We are not waiting on the Israelis’
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/07/biden-us-port-gaza-aid-delivery

    Will the U.S. and allies secure the beachhead? Mission creep towards peacekeeping?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    ohnotnow said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Either Sunak is going for a May election, or... He's a really terrible politician...

    Take your pick!

    Or both...
    Hi RCS, any idea what happened to the Like feature, where we can no longer see who has 'liked' a given post?
    RCS knows, no doubt? But he ain't telling the likes (ahem) of us what he knows!

    Perhaps The Shadow knows???

    The Shadow - Heh! Heh! Heh!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMlRpN8ANrU
    One of my favourite tracks :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O-8bJEYwtA

    Link Wray - The Shadow Knows.
    Link Wray is brill.
    Rumble is one of the only instrumentals to be banned on US radio stations. I like to think it was because of its brooding menace but I think it was down to a moral panic about teenage greasers knifing each other, and rumble being slang for such activities.
    Antique slang. Though more modern than "rumble seat".

    BTW, "greasers" is also antique American slang. Sometimes used for 1950s "juvenile delinquents" (also antique) with loads too much "greasy kid stuff" on their duck-tail hairdos.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greaser_(subculture)

    HOWEVER, more commonly used through US history as slur against Mexicans.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greaser_(derogatory)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I’m very disappointed. I was expecting a thread about the Lewisham mayoral by-election!

    A small hill of beans compared to the Hillhead council by-election (Galloway’s old stamping ground by the by).

    https://ballotbox.scot/preview-hillhead/
    Congrats tud btw. You've palmed him off on us again!
    Not entirely comfortable tbh, yet again he’s probably sucked in some quite decent people into his shenanigans. Hopefully won’t be for too long.
    Hope not. The truth is, I'm looking forward hugely to the Labour landslide (Oct, I think) but I'm actually pretty depressed about politics in general atm. Right wing populism all over the place, appealing to all the baser instincts. We all have them but jesus let's not celebrate them and pretend it's the way to go. Trump is a coin toss ffs, just can't believe that, and although I hope (and semi expect) Starmer proves more radical in office than people think I do miss the 'edge' of the Corbyn era. I want that back with a more intelligent modern skillful leader. And preferably no beard.

    Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.

    "I know that we could have made it
    We had ideas in our heads"

    ✊️🙂
    You will be fine with LAB and Biden both winning. No need to worry about other outcomes.
    Not sure about Biden.
    You can still lay Mrs Obama as next President at 22. And back Biden not being impeached before the November election at 1.09. And back the Dems as popular vote winner at 1.66. There is plenty of value if you go looking for it.

    I even have money on laying Trump as Republican VP nominee at 66, which was never going to happen. Now out at 290. Of course, not worth more than a token stake given the risible return.
    I'm very short Trump for Prez at average 4.

    Many thousands.

    🤞 c'mon you American people. It's a bet on you.
    We did try to warn you about those bets.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I’m very disappointed. I was expecting a thread about the Lewisham mayoral by-election!

    A small hill of beans compared to the Hillhead council by-election (Galloway’s old stamping ground by the by).

    https://ballotbox.scot/preview-hillhead/
    Congrats tud btw. You've palmed him off on us again!
    Not entirely comfortable tbh, yet again he’s probably sucked in some quite decent people into his shenanigans. Hopefully won’t be for too long.
    Hope not. The truth is, I'm looking forward hugely to the Labour landslide (Oct, I think) but I'm actually pretty depressed about politics in general atm. Right wing populism all over the place, appealing to all the baser instincts. We all have them but jesus let's not celebrate them and pretend it's the way to go. Trump is a coin toss ffs, just can't believe that, and although I hope (and semi expect) Starmer proves more radical in office than people think I do miss the 'edge' of the Corbyn era. I want that back with a more intelligent modern skillful leader. And preferably no beard.

    Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.

    "I know that we could have made it
    We had ideas in our heads"

    ✊️🙂
    You will be fine with LAB and Biden both winning. No need to worry about other outcomes.
    Not sure about Biden.
    You can still lay Mrs Obama as next President at 22. And back Biden not being impeached before the November election at 1.09. And back the Dems as popular vote winner at 1.66. There is plenty of value if you go looking for it.

    I even have money on laying Trump as Republican VP nominee at 66, which was never going to happen. Now out at 290. Of course, not worth more than a token stake given the risible return.
    I'm very short Trump for Prez at average 4.

    Many thousands.

    🤞 c'mon you American people. It's a bet on you.
    For the minority on here who know nothing about betting what does that actually mean? If Trump wins you profit? or is it vice versa?
    I lose if he wins.
    The entire fucking planet loses if he wins. Your bankruptcy would actually be one of the more minor tragedies involved, however painful for you personally.
    Indeed. Financially the bet is not a problem but I'll be shaken to the core in various other ways if the US reelects Donald Trump as president. I beseech them not to. Hopefully they can hear me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I’m very disappointed. I was expecting a thread about the Lewisham mayoral by-election!

    A small hill of beans compared to the Hillhead council by-election (Galloway’s old stamping ground by the by).

    https://ballotbox.scot/preview-hillhead/
    Congrats tud btw. You've palmed him off on us again!
    Not entirely comfortable tbh, yet again he’s probably sucked in some quite decent people into his shenanigans. Hopefully won’t be for too long.
    Hope not. The truth is, I'm looking forward hugely to the Labour landslide (Oct, I think) but I'm actually pretty depressed about politics in general atm. Right wing populism all over the place, appealing to all the baser instincts. We all have them but jesus let's not celebrate them and pretend it's the way to go. Trump is a coin toss ffs, just can't believe that, and although I hope (and semi expect) Starmer proves more radical in office than people think I do miss the 'edge' of the Corbyn era. I want that back with a more intelligent modern skillful leader. And preferably no beard.

    Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.

    "I know that we could have made it
    We had ideas in our heads"

    ✊️🙂
    You will be fine with LAB and Biden both winning. No need to worry about other outcomes.
    Not sure about Biden.
    You can still lay Mrs Obama as next President at 22. And back Biden not being impeached before the November election at 1.09. And back the Dems as popular vote winner at 1.66. There is plenty of value if you go looking for it.

    I even have money on laying Trump as Republican VP nominee at 66, which was never going to happen. Now out at 290. Of course, not worth more than a token stake given the risible return.
    I'm very short Trump for Prez at average 4.

    Many thousands.

    🤞 c'mon you American people. It's a bet on you.
    We did try to warn you about those bets.
    I'll win. 🙂
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    I am starting to believe @MoonRabbit is going to make one of the greatest political predictions other than Horse’s Labour lead prediction.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    For whom it may (or may not) concern - "Colin" is Kaput.

    Colin is Neil Warnock to @swfc fans

    (Anagram of Colin Wanker)
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 467

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    I am starting to believe @MoonRabbit is going to make one of the greatest political predictions other than Horse’s Labour lead prediction.

    @londonpubman too
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I’m very disappointed. I was expecting a thread about the Lewisham mayoral by-election!

    A small hill of beans compared to the Hillhead council by-election (Galloway’s old stamping ground by the by).

    https://ballotbox.scot/preview-hillhead/
    Congrats tud btw. You've palmed him off on us again!
    Not entirely comfortable tbh, yet again he’s probably sucked in some quite decent people into his shenanigans. Hopefully won’t be for too long.
    Hope not. The truth is, I'm looking forward hugely to the Labour landslide (Oct, I think) but I'm actually pretty depressed about politics in general atm. Right wing populism all over the place, appealing to all the baser instincts. We all have them but jesus let's not celebrate them and pretend it's the way to go. Trump is a coin toss ffs, just can't believe that, and although I hope (and semi expect) Starmer proves more radical in office than people think I do miss the 'edge' of the Corbyn era. I want that back with a more intelligent modern skillful leader. And preferably no beard.

    Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.

    "I know that we could have made it
    We had ideas in our heads"

    ✊️🙂
    You will be fine with LAB and Biden both winning. No need to worry about other outcomes.
    Not sure about Biden.
    You can still lay Mrs Obama as next President at 22. And back Biden not being impeached before the November election at 1.09. And back the Dems as popular vote winner at 1.66. There is plenty of value if you go looking for it.

    I even have money on laying Trump as Republican VP nominee at 66, which was never going to happen. Now out at 290. Of course, not worth more than a token stake given the risible return.
    I'm very short Trump for Prez at average 4.

    Many thousands.

    🤞 c'mon you American people. It's a bet on you.
    For the minority on here who know nothing about betting what does that actually mean? If Trump wins you profit? or is it vice versa?
    I lose if he wins.
    The entire fucking planet loses if he wins. Your bankruptcy would actually be one of the more minor tragedies involved, however painful for you personally.
    Indeed. Financially the bet is not a problem but I'll be shaken to the core in various other ways if the US reelects Donald Trump as president. I beseech them not to. Hopefully they can hear me.
    I doubt it. He's going to win.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,638
    Foxy said:

    I am starting to believe @MoonRabbit is going to make one of the greatest political predictions other than Horse’s Labour lead prediction.

    @londonpubman too
    I concur with this analysis
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Taz said:

    The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.

    Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10

    Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
    Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
    The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
    There you go again! What on God’s Green Earth has this discussion got to do with cash? Sod all. You are obsessed.
    C

    A

    S

    H

    :lol:
    The Spam Trap is coming for you.

    I warn you, as a friend and comrade.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    We've been treading water for a year and more now.
    Ever since Sunak's elevation failed. Everyone is just marking time till the inevitable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited March 7

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    The big issue is that both Tory and Labour are pretending that there are neither tax rises nor massive spending cuts on the way. Both know that its true, but won't admit it, at least not this side of an election.

    They think voters are idiots.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    GIN1138 said:
    You are the change you get from a Durex machine and I claim my prize
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Taz said:

    The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.

    Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10

    Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
    Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
    The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
    There you go again! What on God’s Green Earth has this discussion got to do with cash? Sod all. You are obsessed.
    C

    A

    S

    H

    :lol:
    The Spam Trap is coming for you.

    I warn you, as a friend and comrade.
    Someone else was banned for doing something similar (one capital letter every other line) but what's behind it, what is it intended to convey, and why does the 'spam trap' pick it up?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Foxy said:

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    The big issue is that both Tory and Labour are pretending that there are neither tax rises nor massive spending cuts on the way. Both know that its true, but won't admit it, at least not this side of an election.

    They think voters are idiots.
    Not only is this all true, but no-one is really suggesting solution based ideas about the UK's big picture future, mostly because they can't think of any, but also because it's part of the pre election purdah. (It would be cheering to think Labour have got some but we are not holding our national collective breath for them). So instead we are treated to the ramblings of single issue fanatics, and the narcissism of small differences.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited March 7
    Foxy said:

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    The big issue is that both Tory and Labour are pretending that there are neither tax rises nor massive spending cuts on the way. Both know that its true, but won't admit it, at least not this side of an election.

    They think voters are idiots.
    In their defence, we voters are not known for rewarding those who give us hard truths.

    As leaders they are supposed to rise about that and help us be better, but it's understandable they take the easy path.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    I don’t think George’s sources are as good as he thinks they are.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    Yes, that is the thinking. The local elections are a big problem. A Tory rout there (likely) leaves Sunny exposed. Might as well cut and run.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    We have a tendency to think MPs or other notables surely must know more than we do, and to take their views more seriously than a random pundit. See how some people eat up reports about a party's 'private polling', seemingly on the basis that it has to be more accurate and give them a better idea of what is going on than what we mere mortals can glean.

    The truth is sometimes the Osbornes of the world get lucky, but a lot of the time they are vastly wrong in their predictions. I've see reports and private comments from MPs, including senior government figures, for pretty much every option under the sun. They don't have a clue, or at the very least no position so fixed it wouldn't change tomorrow.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    In my "circles" the budget isn't seen as a dud, generally viewed as politically fairly astute albeit financially a bit suspect, but just not exciting enough to shift the polls. I don't think it's done the Tories any harm though. Hunt will come out of this car crash of a parliament with a better reputation than most of his front bench colleagues.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    He admitted that he was backtracking TBF
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    Yes, that is the thinking. The local elections are a big problem. A Tory rout there (likely) leaves Sunny exposed. Might as well cut and run.
    I think that is probably right. After a shellacking in the locals - and we'd expect a government to lose in the locals even if they were not 14 years into power and suffering disastrous polling lows - will party unity, morale, and prospects improve? Or will despondency and infighting see a further spiral?

    It's so so hard to call an election earlier when you look set to lose, and to lose big at that, but at this point boldness may be their best gamble.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    No. His clear implication was that it is a serious candidate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    gabyhinsliff
    @gabyhinsliff
    ·
    3h
    My mum just texted to report an earthquake in thePeak District so obviously I scoffed but I checked the BGS & it seems (basically the world’s smallest) earthquake has…I would not quite say shaken but definitely slightly stirred Derbyshire

    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1765799756452757702
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Foxy said:

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    The big issue is that both Tory and Labour are pretending that there are neither tax rises nor massive spending cuts on the way. Both know that its true, but won't admit it, at least not this side of an election.

    They think voters are idiots.
    Conservatives can't tell the fiscal truth, because it would mean admitting how much they have soiled the bed.

    And that means that Labour can't, because denying reality beats acknowledging it.

    Reeves gets exactly one shot at "the Tory mess is even worse than we imagined". I think I trust her and Starmer to use that better than any Downing Street team of my adulthood. Whether they use it well enough remains to be seen.

    As for May or December... My assumption has been that that the government would hang on, not because things would get better but to bank a few more months in office. But there's nothing left, is there?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    He admitted that he was backtracking TBF
    Ah right, I haven't listened to his and Balls' latest podcast yet.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    edited March 7
    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    Making some numbers up to illustrate what I think the situation is.

    May election: Mean Tory seat losses 150.
    Probability >200 Tory seat losses 20%
    Probability Hung Parliament 5%

    December election: Mean Tory seat losses 175.
    Probability >200 Tory seat losses 40%
    Probability Hung Parliament 10%

    So, the most likely result of a later election is that the Tory defeat is worse, but there is also a greater chance of a miraculous recovery, simply because there's more time for something unexpected to happen. It makes sense to me that they're only interested in the chance of creating a miraculous recovery, and so they will wait, even though it probably makes the defeat worse.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    If the Tories have concluded it’s damage limitation time they’ll go for May.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Taz said:

    The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.

    Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10

    Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
    Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
    The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
    There you go again! What on God’s Green Earth has this discussion got to do with cash? Sod all. You are obsessed.
    C

    A

    S

    H

    :lol:
    The Spam Trap is coming for you.

    I warn you, as a friend and comrade.
    Someone else was banned for doing something similar (one capital letter every other line) but what's behind it, what is it intended to convey, and why does the 'spam trap' pick it up?
    Yes, that was me. I spent 48 hours in the cooler due to the Spam Trapper. It is a serious adversary. Be afraid, be very afraid, would be my advice.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,678
    Mugshot



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    GIN1138 said:
    You are the change you get from a Durex machine and I claim my prize
    You wait around to see if it gives any change??
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    TimS said:

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    In my "circles" the budget isn't seen as a dud, generally viewed as politically fairly astute albeit financially a bit suspect, but just not exciting enough to shift the polls. I don't think it's done the Tories any harm though. Hunt will come out of this car crash of a parliament with a better reputation than most of his front bench colleagues.
    Such a low bar, tho.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    You are the change you get from a Durex machine and I claim my prize
    You wait around to see if it gives any change??
    They do in Yorkshire.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Scott_xP said:

    @PeterOuld
    What if the Government's plan is to hold an early (May) election if, and only if, the Rwanda Bill is held up by Parliamentary Process / the Lords? A kind of "the people vs the lefty immigration fans" thing?

    Would let them have an ideological conflict linked to Brexit.

    Sounds a bit desperate, but it might be worth a roll of the dice compared with other options. After all, this conflict around Brexit approach paid huge dividends for Boris in 2019.

    Then I hope each and every Conservative candidate is asked, “Do you support reform of the House of Lords?”
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    TimS said:

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    In my "circles" the budget isn't seen as a dud, generally viewed as politically fairly astute albeit financially a bit suspect, but just not exciting enough to shift the polls. I don't think it's done the Tories any harm though. Hunt will come out of this car crash of a parliament with a better reputation than most of his front bench colleagues.
    Lowest bar since the 1967 All West Indies Limbo Championship finals?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    He admitted that he was backtracking TBF
    Ah right, I haven't listened to his and Balls' latest podcast yet.
    It’s a good episode. The bit about German spies at the end an unexpected bonus!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    Trust Honest Larry, the Number 10 Top Tipster.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637


    gabyhinsliff
    @gabyhinsliff
    ·
    3h
    My mum just texted to report an earthquake in thePeak District so obviously I scoffed but I checked the BGS & it seems (basically the world’s smallest) earthquake has…I would not quite say shaken but definitely slightly stirred Derbyshire

    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1765799756452757702

    The home of Shakewell tarts?
    That's no way to refer to the good women of Bakewell
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    boulay said:

    For whom it may (or may not) concern - "Colin" is Kaput.

    I wonder if he pronounced it like the late great Colin Powell or like Colin the Caterpillar.
    I think the o is pronounced a little bit like ah in Russian.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Scott_xP said:

    @PeterOuld
    What if the Government's plan is to hold an early (May) election if, and only if, the Rwanda Bill is held up by Parliamentary Process / the Lords? A kind of "the people vs the lefty immigration fans" thing?

    Would let them have an ideological conflict linked to Brexit.

    Sounds a bit desperate, but it might be worth a roll of the dice compared with other options. After all, this conflict around Brexit approach paid huge dividends for Boris in 2019.

    Then I hope each and every Conservative candidate is asked, “Do you support reform of the House of Lords?”
    I assume they will say 'Only if it as proposed by that kle4 chap, he know's what's what'.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    That's one talented cat.
    Where do you live?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Taz said:

    The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.

    Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10

    Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
    Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
    The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
    There you go again! What on God’s Green Earth has this discussion got to do with cash? Sod all. You are obsessed.
    C

    A

    S

    H

    :lol:
    The Spam Trap is coming for you.

    I warn you, as a friend and comrade.
    Someone else was banned for doing something similar (one capital letter every other line) but what's behind it, what is it intended to convey, and why does the 'spam trap' pick it up?
    Yes, that was me. I spent 48 hours in the cooler due to the Spam Trapper. It is a serious adversary. Be afraid, be very afraid, would be my advice.
    Yes but why? Why did you feel moved to post a word with one capital letter every other line and why does the spam trapper object to it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Leon said:

    Mugshot

    Made me smile anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
    May:

    Also no chance of an embarrassing attempt at defenestration.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Just watched the rise and fall of Boris Johnson. Passed an hour along pretty quickly.

    Can't see the rise and fall of SKS being anywhere near as interesting. Although the 2nd half will be something I would watch TBF

    Does a runner to bed goodnight.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
    May:

    Also no chance of an embarrassing attempt at defenestration.
    Er... my 2nd point, I believe.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,678

    Leon said:

    Mugshot

    Made me smile anyway.
    Thanks. Surely the greatest piece of wordplay in PB history
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
    Major and decisive disadvantage of May: Sunak Loses.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586


    gabyhinsliff
    @gabyhinsliff
    ·
    3h
    My mum just texted to report an earthquake in thePeak District so obviously I scoffed but I checked the BGS & it seems (basically the world’s smallest) earthquake has…I would not quite say shaken but definitely slightly stirred Derbyshire

    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1765799756452757702

    The home of Shakewell tarts?
    That's no way to refer to the good women of Bakewell
    Should I call them tarts or puddings?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
    Major and decisive disadvantage of May: Sunak Loses.
    Not really a disadvantage versus same outcome in Oct/Nov.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
    May:

    Also no chance of an embarrassing attempt at defenestration.
    Er... my 2nd point, I believe.
    Whoops, not paying attention!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    How is Michelle Donelan still in post?

    The rules are for poor people. They are that blatant at this point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mugshot

    Made me smile anyway.
    Thanks. Surely the greatest piece of wordplay in PB history
    Greatest piece of photo-wordplay maybe. Pure wordplay - @ydoethur is the master.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    edited March 7

    Taz said:

    The original plan was Spring 2023, the replacement plan was Spring 2024 and we are now down to option 3. We also had briefings regarding Autumn 2023 but that was probably just a very hamfisted attempt to confuse the Lab electoral machine. Any Govt that ends up going to the end of its term is doing so because it is bottling the preferable earlier dates. If the Cons had thought they could have won earlier then they would have gone to the GE earlier. We look for a No 10 strategy but there really is none. They just cross their fingers and hope something, anything, will turn up.

    Meanwhile, people are very tired of them. That will not improve as they continue to stage their socio-political dirty protest at No 10

    Well put. If it looks like a bottle. It's a bottle.
    Especially when it's three-quarters full of lukewarm piss . . . and being waved about in voters' faces . . .
    The only lukewarm piss is from the resident cash hater claiming the govt are bottling a May election when they’ve never said, or even implied, they will do it. It is just labour demanding one.
    There you go again! What on God’s Green Earth has this discussion got to do with cash? Sod all. You are obsessed.
    C

    A

    S

    H

    :lol:
    The Spam Trap is coming for you.

    I warn you, as a friend and comrade.
    Someone else was banned for doing something similar (one capital letter every other line) but what's behind it, what is it intended to convey, and why does the 'spam trap' pick it up?
    Yes, that was me. I spent 48 hours in the cooler due to the Spam Trapper. It is a serious adversary. Be afraid, be very afraid, would be my advice.
    Yes but why? Why did you feel moved to post a word with one capital letter every other line and why does the spam trapper object to it?
    T…

    No. No. Must stop.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
    Other advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - The economy will (probably) no longer be in recession
    - Inflation will be low and memories of high inflation will be fading more
    - Rwanda bill passed and maybe flights happened
    - NHS waiting lists might be better
    - People will have had more time to appreciate the NI cuts
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Leon said:

    Mugshot



    Oh, I get it now. :smile:
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360


    gabyhinsliff
    @gabyhinsliff
    ·
    3h
    My mum just texted to report an earthquake in thePeak District so obviously I scoffed but I checked the BGS & it seems (basically the world’s smallest) earthquake has…I would not quite say shaken but definitely slightly stirred Derbyshire

    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1765799756452757702

    The home of Shakewell tarts?
    That's no way to refer to the good women of Bakewell
    Should I call them tarts or puddings?
    The existence of 'The Old Original Bakewell Pudding Shop' clearly validates the latter.

    Google will tell you the difference between the two, at length.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    edited March 7

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,678
    Medellín seems remarkably pleasant. Tho I have only been here an hour
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
    Other advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - The economy will (probably) no longer be in recession
    - Inflation will be low and memories of high inflation will be fading more
    - Rwanda bill passed and maybe flights happened
    - NHS waiting lists might be better
    - People will have had more time to appreciate the NI cuts
    Memories of inflation can be brought back instantly - how much more was you shopping than 5 years ago?

    NI cuts - people really won't notice, they didn't notice the November one they won't notice the April one...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    biggles said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
    I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It's nuts but I suspect there is little upside and far more downside in delaying until the autumn...
    However, it is rational to think thus (for Sunak, not the rest of us): I can't win in May. I do not know how things can change so that I can win or at least do better later, but the chance cannot be Zero. So don't go in May.

    OTOH it may be rational to say: I can't win at all. Let's get it over with, go for May.

    Also, OTOH, there aren't any good times to go for once POTUS elections are in full swing; January is out because of Christmas campaigning being a non starter; I can't win in May. Try July or September.

    Personally I think May is a definite No. But it would be good now to get this over.
    Once again:

    Advantages of May:
    - Avoids fall-out from the locals.
    - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
    - Energy prices will fall in April.
    - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
    - Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
    - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
    - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).

    Advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - Something might turn up.
    - Sunak spends more time as PM.
    Other advantages of Oct/Nov:
    - The economy will (probably) no longer be in recession
    - Inflation will be low and memories of high inflation will be fading more
    - Rwanda bill passed and maybe flights happened
    - NHS waiting lists might be better
    - People will have had more time to appreciate the NI cuts
    Memories of inflation can be brought back instantly - how much more was you shopping than 5 years ago?

    NI cuts - people really won't notice, they didn't notice the November one they won't notice the April one...
    My son and daughter in law have said they are very pleased to see £900 pa reduction each plus the change in child care is welcome especially with 3 children
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    viewcode said:

    How is Michelle Donelan still in post?

    The rules are for poor people. They are that blatant at this point.
    Oh, what are ya Moaning about?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    edited March 7

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    You are the change you get from a Durex machine and I claim my prize
    You wait around to see if it gives any change??
    They do in Yorkshire.
    In Yorkshire, they sell them sale or return. There is a thriving secondhand market on eebygumBay.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765857993080328615

    United Airlines Boeing 777 lost a tire during takeoff from San Francisco International Airport.

    The tire from the Boeing plane landed in an airport parking lot and appeared to damage multiple cars.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    biggles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:
    You obviously are unaware of male lion behaviour in the wild.
    Do they have Gay Prides?
    Roar sex appeal and

    biggles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    What a fucking roaster.

    Police misconduct should be dealt with “behind closed doors” and problems in Britain’s biggest force are the result of individual “bad ’uns”, the Conservative London mayoral candidate has said.

    In a leaked recording, Susan Hall can be heard telling backers that she would “support [the Met] completely in front of other people”, adding: “If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”

    Hall also suggested that problems of sexism and misogyny in the Met are down to “bad ’uns” and “wrong ’uns”. This runs counter to the central finding of Baroness Casey’s review of the Met, which concluded that the force was institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic...

    ...The leaked remarks were made at a campaign event for Hall in January, during which she was challenged on her approach to the Met by a member of the audience who warned her against failing to publicly recognise the need for reform.

    In response, Hall replied: “There have been some disgraceful episodes, you’re quite right. And they are now rooting out the bad ’uns, if you like. There’s 250 that are on suspension, not allowed to work and there’s about 1,000 that are being watched. Totally not good enough … Having said that, if you’re running a business, if you want things to go well with your staff, you support them completely in front of other people.

    “If they’re doing something wrong, you take them into your office, you close the door, and you have the conversation and that’s exactly what we should be doing with the police.”

    Hall went on to praise the majority of Met officers who feel “battered and bruised” by the criticism directed at the force in recent years, adding: “And some of the wrong ’uns are the ones that have gotten a bad reputation. So I will continue to support [the majority].

    “But what I say to the commissioner behind closed doors will stay behind closed doors. But I promise you, we will get results. It will be much, much better under a Hall mayoralty.”

    Hall’s campaign slogan is “Safer with Susan” and she has been deeply critical of the current Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s record on policing. The former leader of Harrow council was selected by the Conservative Party to fight the City Hall election this May.

    A Conservative source said the remarks risked sending relations between the Met and the public “back to square one”.

    They said: “To tackle the deep-rooted issues in the Met police you need to first actually tackle the problem and also regain the trust of the public. To do that you have to call out bad behaviour publicly and to suggest she won’t say that anything is wrong is worrying. Susan has to show the public she understands the depth of the problem.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/met-police-problems-susan-hall-tory-london-mayor-candidate-pps59ln3g

    I don't see how what she's saying is particularly unreasonable. I find that 'thought leaders' in politics and the civil service are always using individual shocking newsmaking events to instigate massive and not necessarily positive institutional changes that they wanted to make anyway. Yes, the Met does need to be sorted, and far greater rigour applied to appointments, but it is far from self-evident that a huge public process ending with (to give some examples) tokenistic public displays of 'respect' toward women, active discrimination toward women in recruitment, and the criminalisation of wolf whistling, is the best way forward. Just stopping employing criminals and known perverts as policemen should do the trick.
    Clearly neither you nor Susan Hall have read the multiple reports on the problems in the Met. The Met is not fundamentally decent or even fundamentally professional. They have not been like that for years and part of the reason has been politicians not holding them to account and coming out with rubbish like this, which has allowed the leadership to avoid being clear-eyed about what they need to do. The problems are not simply about employing a few criminals by mistake.

    For instance, the recent Angiolini Report made clear that Couzens was not a "known pervert" (he should have been) and was actually rather good at hiding his true character and behaviour from his colleagues. Why he was hired - despite some subtle warning signs - and why he was not caught will not be solved by just telling the bosses behind closed doors not to hire criminals and perverts.

    Hall is an idiot.
    You're right, I haven't read the reports, and I do yield to your far greater knowledge on the topic.

    However, I think we often neglect simple solutions in favour of more complex ones. I was shocked that convicted criminals are allowed to serve in the Met. These people should not serve. We don't need a huge enquiry to tell us that.
    Ancillary point to this, but I would caution being too distracted by whether someone HAS a criminal record. Yes, obviously we should bar those with (some types of) criminal record from certain jobs, but always remember that a) a DBS check is only valid at the moment it is completed; and b) the most successful criminals don’t have records anyway.

    Vetting has to be broader than criminal record checks.
    It isn't just about vetting; the last time we discussed this I am sure I heard of serving officers being convicted of drugs offences etc. and continuing to serve. It was shocking and disgraceful. Of course clever criminals aren't caught, but we can at least weed out the stupid (but still dangerous ones). You break the law; you don't serve as a police officer. This isn't a complex concept.
    I didn’t argue with any of that. I was pointing out that only gets you so far, and can give you a false sense of security.
    Apologies; I didn't mean to sound so stroppy.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912

    biggles said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
    I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
    That would involved subjecting my ears to George Osborne without being paid for it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    dixiedean said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    That's one talented cat.
    Where do you live?
    Wonderland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    He's been taking tips from Leon about the whole prediction game thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mugshot

    Made me smile anyway.
    Thanks. Surely the greatest piece of wordplay in PB history
    Greatest piece of photo-wordplay maybe. Pure wordplay - @ydoethur is the master.
    Doctor, actually.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Johnny machines went cashless long ago
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    B

    O

    B

    A

    J

    O

    B

    [H

    E

    A

    R

    T

    S]

    C

    A

    S

    H
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The lovely thing about this ruling is Trump will have to look up dilatory to see what it means.

    Judge Kaplan has *denied* Donald Trump's motion for a stay of the civil verdict against him in the Carroll case.

    "Mr. Trump's current situation is a result of his own dilatory actions," he writes.

    https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1765862219982508442
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707
    viewcode said:

    How is Michelle Donelan still in post?

    The rules are for poor people. They are that blatant at this point.
    If it wasn't for the poor - who would they get to f**k around with? That's why they keep them around. Otherwise it gets tricksy trying to mess up the lives of the rich and wealthy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The serious heavyweights in obesity.

    Fun facts:

    $LLY is the 8th most valuable public company in the world.

    $NVO is now 12th, just ahead of $JPM

    https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein/status/1765856374083191168
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707

    Foxy said:

    Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?

    I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?

    Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
    The big issue is that both Tory and Labour are pretending that there are neither tax rises nor massive spending cuts on the way. Both know that its true, but won't admit it, at least not this side of an election.

    They think voters are idiots.
    Conservatives can't tell the fiscal truth, because it would mean admitting how much they have soiled the bed.

    And that means that Labour can't, because denying reality beats acknowledging it.

    Reeves gets exactly one shot at "the Tory mess is even worse than we imagined". I think I trust her and Starmer to use that better than any Downing Street team of my adulthood. Whether they use it well enough remains to be seen.

    As for May or December... My assumption has been that that the government would hang on, not because things would get better but to bank a few more months in office. But there's nothing left, is there?
    Another six months to find a decent part-time directorship of some companies who need bailed out at taxpayer expense?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited March 7
    Nigelb said:

    The lovely thing about this ruling is Trump will have to look up dilatory to see what it means.

    Judge Kaplan has *denied* Donald Trump's motion for a stay of the civil verdict against him in the Carroll case.

    "Mr. Trump's current situation is a result of his own dilatory actions," he writes.

    https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1765862219982508442

    He apparently should have quite a bit of actual money available by the end of the month with his media stuff, but timing is a bitch. His problems in this one seem to be that his lawyers appear to be following through with what they mouth off to the 'news' shows, and just assuming a future win on appeal will somehow deal with this, rather than talking big on tv but covering his arse more in court.

    Although people seem pretty confident he does actually has enough cash on hand for the lower judgement (I'd thought it was due today but that doc says it is Monday, so I'm sure he can manage it), although he has sought not to post it, but the second is the big problem.

    As I'd assume someone would have to be very silly to post it for him.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707
    dixiedean said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    That's one talented cat.
    Where do you live?
    Cheshire, surely?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    edited March 7

    biggles said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
    I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
    For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.

    btw we should consider Gin is in the spam trap, despite being told not to do it. Don’t anyone listen on this site? 🥱
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    The Spam Trapper.

    Beware!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    biggles said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
    I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
    For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
    Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.

    Oh, I think I see what you mean.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,678
    Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd

    “The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”

    https://x.com/hansmahncke/status/1765852724606726557?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw



    If you actively WANT to encourage conspiracy theories this is what you do
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Ha! Chapeau
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Hearing whispers that Theresa May will announce she is standing down from Parliament at the next election tomorrow.

    Shame, I'd like former PMs to stick around for more than 1 additional term. Though given the Cameron situation no need to rule out high office once more.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    biggles said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
    I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
    For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.

    btw we should consider Gin is in the spam trap, despite being told not to do it. Don’t anyone listen on this site? 🥱

    biggles said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
    I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
    For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.

    btw we should consider Gin is in the spam trap, despite being told not to do it. Don’t anyone listen on this site? 🥱
    The Spam Trapper is a potent and - may I say - formidable adversary. He strikes without mercy.

    GIN? Are you there?
This discussion has been closed.