On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
Congrats tud btw. You've palmed him off on us again!
Not entirely comfortable tbh, yet again he’s probably sucked in some quite decent people into his shenanigans. Hopefully won’t be for too long.
Hope not. The truth is, I'm looking forward hugely to the Labour landslide (Oct, I think) but I'm actually pretty depressed about politics in general atm. Right wing populism all over the place, appealing to all the baser instincts. We all have them but jesus let's not celebrate them and pretend it's the way to go. Trump is a coin toss ffs, just can't believe that, and although I hope (and semi expect) Starmer proves more radical in office than people think I do miss the 'edge' of the Corbyn era. I want that back with a more intelligent modern skillful leader. And preferably no beard.
Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.
"I know that we could have made it We had ideas in our heads"
✊️🙂
You will be fine with LAB and Biden both winning. No need to worry about other outcomes.
Not sure about Biden.
You can still lay Mrs Obama as next President at 22. And back Biden not being impeached before the November election at 1.09. And back the Dems as popular vote winner at 1.66. There is plenty of value if you go looking for it.
I even have money on laying Trump as Republican VP nominee at 66, which was never going to happen. Now out at 290. Of course, not worth more than a token stake given the risible return.
I'm very short Trump for Prez at average 4.
Many thousands.
🤞 c'mon you American people. It's a bet on you.
For the minority on here who know nothing about betting what does that actually mean? If Trump wins you profit? or is it vice versa?
I lose if he wins.
The entire fucking planet loses if he wins. Your bankruptcy would actually be one of the more minor tragedies involved, however painful for you personally.
Indeed. Financially the bet is not a problem but I'll be shaken to the core in various other ways if the US reelects Donald Trump as president. I beseech them not to. Hopefully they can hear me.
The fact that he has got so far, effectively unchallenged and with almost the entire GOP behind him should be warning enough that he very much can win. Given the skew in the Electoral College, it's probably 55-45 that he does.
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Your basic point makes sense.
Would say, however, that political history of UK shows that, while intensive analysis of optimum election dates is norm, also normal for the results to be, like the answers of the Oracle of Delphi, to be somewhat less than clear cut, and capable of multiple interpretations.
In the end, comes down to the PM's gut instincts.
Suggesting he should start each day off right(wing) with a hearty breakfast of top-quality probiotic yogurt.
George Osborne was AGAIN pushing the idea that Call Me Dave be retained as Foreign Secretary under Labour.
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
It's not going to happen.
Another one to toss into the dustbin of history.
Has there ever been an example of a minister being kept over on a change of government, when the minister's party or faction hasn't joined the new government? I can't think of one. Certainly not since the mid-19th century (it's possible it happened as Tory/Whig reconfigured into Con/Lib - but even then, chances are that ministers moved with established factions).
I'm not counting National Labour in 1931, who clearly were a splinter faction - or likewise the Nat Libs when the main body of the Liberals withdrew from the National govt.
Congrats tud btw. You've palmed him off on us again!
Not entirely comfortable tbh, yet again he’s probably sucked in some quite decent people into his shenanigans. Hopefully won’t be for too long.
Hope not. The truth is, I'm looking forward hugely to the Labour landslide (Oct, I think) but I'm actually pretty depressed about politics in general atm. Right wing populism all over the place, appealing to all the baser instincts. We all have them but jesus let's not celebrate them and pretend it's the way to go. Trump is a coin toss ffs, just can't believe that, and although I hope (and semi expect) Starmer proves more radical in office than people think I do miss the 'edge' of the Corbyn era. I want that back with a more intelligent modern skillful leader. And preferably no beard.
Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.
"I know that we could have made it We had ideas in our heads"
✊️🙂
You will be fine with LAB and Biden both winning. No need to worry about other outcomes.
Not sure about Biden.
You can still lay Mrs Obama as next President at 22. And back Biden not being impeached before the November election at 1.09. And back the Dems as popular vote winner at 1.66. There is plenty of value if you go looking for it.
I even have money on laying Trump as Republican VP nominee at 66, which was never going to happen. Now out at 290. Of course, not worth more than a token stake given the risible return.
I'm very short Trump for Prez at average 4.
Many thousands.
🤞 c'mon you American people. It's a bet on you.
For the minority on here who know nothing about betting what does that actually mean? If Trump wins you profit? or is it vice versa?
I lose if he wins.
The entire fucking planet loses if he wins. Your bankruptcy would actually be one of the more minor tragedies involved, however painful for you personally.
Indeed. Financially the bet is not a problem but I'll be shaken to the core in various other ways if the US reelects Donald Trump as president. I beseech them not to. Hopefully they can hear me.
The fact that he has got so far, effectively unchallenged and with almost the entire GOP behind him should be warning enough that he very much can win. Given the skew in the Electoral College, it's probably 55-45 that he does.
Over a third of Republicans voted for Haley and where they go and the outcome of his criminal convictions likely determines the election. In 2020 Biden got a higher percentage of EC votes than the popular vote
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Your basic point makes sense.
Would say, however, that political history of UK shows that, while intensive analysis of optimum election dates is norm, also normal for the results to be, like the answers of the Oracle of Delphi, to be somewhat less than clear cut, and capable of multiple interpretations.
In the end, comes down to the PM's gut instincts.
Suggesting he should start each day off right(wing) with a hearty breakfast of top-quality probiotic yogurt.
Ohhh Kay.
Any examples in UK, with this arcane non fixed and at PM discretion system, where hanging on for voters to come home as economic news improves, actually worked?
97? No. 79? No. 2010? Arguably not, it was fear of NHS in Tory hands that helped Brown hold seats, not the economy picking up. 1992, complete opposite, recession going in, during and after election, it was the “don’t let opposition trample green shoots of recovery” message what won it.
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
CDC have a freedom of information act reading room where they make available to the general public documents released under the FOIA. There's nothing about COVID on there from the last month.
Congrats tud btw. You've palmed him off on us again!
Not entirely comfortable tbh, yet again he’s probably sucked in some quite decent people into his shenanigans. Hopefully won’t be for too long.
Hope not. The truth is, I'm looking forward hugely to the Labour landslide (Oct, I think) but I'm actually pretty depressed about politics in general atm. Right wing populism all over the place, appealing to all the baser instincts. We all have them but jesus let's not celebrate them and pretend it's the way to go. Trump is a coin toss ffs, just can't believe that, and although I hope (and semi expect) Starmer proves more radical in office than people think I do miss the 'edge' of the Corbyn era. I want that back with a more intelligent modern skillful leader. And preferably no beard.
Anyway, just been listening to one of my fave songs by the Hollies and the hook lyric reminded me of the opportunity the left had (and squandered) when it got control of the party.
"I know that we could have made it We had ideas in our heads"
✊️🙂
You will be fine with LAB and Biden both winning. No need to worry about other outcomes.
Not sure about Biden.
You can still lay Mrs Obama as next President at 22. And back Biden not being impeached before the November election at 1.09. And back the Dems as popular vote winner at 1.66. There is plenty of value if you go looking for it.
I even have money on laying Trump as Republican VP nominee at 66, which was never going to happen. Now out at 290. Of course, not worth more than a token stake given the risible return.
I'm very short Trump for Prez at average 4.
Many thousands.
🤞 c'mon you American people. It's a bet on you.
For the minority on here who know nothing about betting what does that actually mean? If Trump wins you profit? or is it vice versa?
I lose if he wins.
The entire fucking planet loses if he wins. Your bankruptcy would actually be one of the more minor tragedies involved, however painful for you personally.
Indeed. Financially the bet is not a problem but I'll be shaken to the core in various other ways if the US reelects Donald Trump as president. I beseech them not to. Hopefully they can hear me.
The fact that he has got so far, effectively unchallenged and with almost the entire GOP behind him should be warning enough that he very much can win. Given the skew in the Electoral College, it's probably 55-45 that he does.
Over a third of Republicans voted for Haley and where they go and the outcome of his criminal convictions likely determines the election. In 2020 Biden got a higher percentage of EC votes than the popular vote
Biden won 57 ECVs - the determining margin - by less than 1.2% (including 37 ECVs by less than 0.6%). It was, as the Duke of Wellington might have put it, a damned close run thing.
Now you're right that plenty of Republican primary voters didn't back Trump, whereas a smaller proportion of Democrat voters didn't back Biden - but then Trump had proper opponents rather than just RON/NotA type options. Question is how many Haley voters will line up behind him in November (and, even more importantly, those who didn't vote at all)?
Trump lost the popular vote by 7m but still nearly came out on top. Voter suppression will be the main part of his game: persuading voters that Biden isn't up to it, as well as a failure - plus rigging the system wherever possible. It's completely in the balance.
What isn't in the balance - barring major health issues - is the lineup. No West Wing scripts, please: it's a rematch of 2020.
CDC have a freedom of information act reading room where they make available to the general public documents released under the FOIA. There's nothing about COVID on there from the last month.
There's some stuff about Myocarditis and COVID released last year. I haven't checked any of it to see if they were completely redacted and my phone is about to die.
George Osborne was AGAIN pushing the idea that Call Me Dave be retained as Foreign Secretary under Labour.
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
Dave will be FS. Lammy. Cameron - no chance whatsoever.
In USA number of examples of Presidents appointing key cabinet positions to members of opposite political party.
For example, in 1940, in the wake of the Fall of France, and on the eve of the Republican National Convention (and just weeks before his own renomination via "draft" by the Democrats) Franklin Roosevelt astounded the nation (and enraged GOPers) by nominating two leading GOPers to his cabinet:
> Henry L. Stimson, Wall Street lawyer, Sec of War under Taft & Sec of State under Hoover, as the new Secretary of War; and
> Henry Knox, Chicago newspaper publisher, 1936 Republican VP nominee, as the new Secretary of the Navy.
Both Stimson and Knox were leaders in the US movement in favor of maximum aid to the Allies versus the Nazis.
Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?
I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?
Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
The big issue is that both Tory and Labour are pretending that there are neither tax rises nor massive spending cuts on the way. Both know that its true, but won't admit it, at least not this side of an election.
They think voters are idiots.
Conservatives can't tell the fiscal truth, because it would mean admitting how much they have soiled the bed.
And that means that Labour can't, because denying reality beats acknowledging it.
Reeves gets exactly one shot at "the Tory mess is even worse than we imagined". I think I trust her and Starmer to use that better than any Downing Street team of my adulthood. Whether they use it well enough remains to be seen.
As for May or December... My assumption has been that that the government would hang on, not because things would get better but to bank a few more months in office. But there's nothing left, is there?
You must be younger than I imagined.
I think Liam Byrne’s letter (“there’s no money left”) will take some beating
George Osborne was AGAIN pushing the idea that Call Me Dave be retained as Foreign Secretary under Labour.
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
Dave will be FS. Lammy. Cameron - no chance whatsoever.
In USA number of examples of Presidents appointing key cabinet positions to members of opposite political party.
For example, in 1940, in the wake of the Fall of France, and on the eve of the Republican National Convention (and just weeks before his own renomination via "draft" by the Democrats) Franklin Roosevelt astounded the nation (and enraged GOPers) by nominating two leading GOPers to his cabinet:
> Henry L. Stimson, Wall Street lawyer, Sec of War under Taft & Sec of State under Hoover, as the new Secretary of War; and
> Henry Knox, Chicago newspaper publisher, 1936 Republican VP nominee, as the new Secretary of the Navy.
Both Stimson and Knox were leaders in the US movement in favor of maximum aid to the Allies versus the Nazis.
Talk about cross-over appeal!
The USA cabinet is independent from the parliament. In the UK the cabinet is tied to the party or parties in Governemnt, so this idea although theoretically possible, has an infinitessimal chance of becoming reality.
George Osborne was AGAIN pushing the idea that Call Me Dave be retained as Foreign Secretary under Labour.
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
Dave will be FS. Lammy. Cameron - no chance whatsoever.
In USA number of examples of Presidents appointing key cabinet positions to members of opposite political party.
For example, in 1940, in the wake of the Fall of France, and on the eve of the Republican National Convention (and just weeks before his own renomination via "draft" by the Democrats) Franklin Roosevelt astounded the nation (and enraged GOPers) by nominating two leading GOPers to his cabinet:
> Henry L. Stimson, Wall Street lawyer, Sec of War under Taft & Sec of State under Hoover, as the new Secretary of War; and
> Henry Knox, Chicago newspaper publisher, 1936 Republican VP nominee, as the new Secretary of the Navy.
Both Stimson and Knox were leaders in the US movement in favor of maximum aid to the Allies versus the Nazis.
Talk about cross-over appeal!
In the very early days of the Republic, wasn't the vice-president the unsuccessful Presidential candidate?
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
Ah. I’m glad you raised that David. Because that is very central point to my hypothesis.
The Reform polling is soft to a GE “forced choice” election psychology - Tories only shed these voters to Reform within the last 18 months - these voters belong nearly exclusively to the Tories, very few to Labour. Those, and don’t knows can be persuaded to come home, and certainly it puts the Tories into a healthier polling range in the thirties, and saves so many seats.
Now here is the clever bit, all the money spent on advisors, modelling and war gaming informs the PM that the Tories can to a large extent control a campaign narrative in May, if they clear the decks, and don’t get hit by too many boat crossings. However, is the war gaming throwing up the impact of a splurge of boat crossings from July, the interim covid report, and how many households have to sign up to new higher mortgages before years end, on if this helps swingback, or in fact hinders it, hardens floaters, don’t knows and those giving Reform as preference, to less likely to come back column?
I’m saying yes. That’s what expensive modelling will be saying.
You see this at the very least trumps any marginal gains won from improving economics. The raw feelings around covid, what’s the Covid report going to say? Splurge in boat crossings putting us on for record year, what on Earth happens to Conservative Party disciplin, and Reform voters in two minds to come back to the Tories?
I don’t know if I’m explaining it well, but it’s the control in may versus lack of control if you leave it later. Can control cutting national insurance for a May election, cannot stop a splurge in boats. Cannot stop the boats. And whilst the boats keep coming, put some flights to Rwanda in the air, 400 asylum seekers at one million quid each, and it smashes the gangs and stops the boats? The voters will go ballistic 🤷♀️
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 3h My mum just texted to report an earthquake in thePeak District so obviously I scoffed but I checked the BGS & it seems (basically the world’s smallest) earthquake has…I would not quite say shaken but definitely slightly stirred Derbyshire
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
George Osborne was AGAIN pushing the idea that Call Me Dave be retained as Foreign Secretary under Labour.
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
He might copy the precedent of having an elder statesman FS in the House of Lords but someone from his own party.
He might, though it's hard to see why he needs to when he would expect to have 350+ MPs to choose from.
In fairness it's hard to see why Sunak needed to either, since it hasn't been paired with some kind of clear strategy to appeal to centrists or something, so it comes across as either random or a desperate move to avoid reshuffling any wider.
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Your basic point makes sense.
Would say, however, that political history of UK shows that, while intensive analysis of optimum election dates is norm, also normal for the results to be, like the answers of the Oracle of Delphi, to be somewhat less than clear cut, and capable of multiple interpretations.
In the end, comes down to the PM's gut instincts.
Suggesting he should start each day off right(wing) with a hearty breakfast of top-quality probiotic yogurt.
Ohhh Kay.
Any examples in UK, with this arcane non fixed and at PM discretion system, where hanging on for voters to come home as economic news improves, actually worked?
97? No. 79? No. 2010? Arguably not, it was fear of NHS in Tory hands that helped Brown hold seats, not the economy picking up. 1992, complete opposite, recession going in, during and after election, it was the “don’t let opposition trample green shoots of recovery” message what won it.
Would you believe 1713? 1802? 1922?
Didn't think so!
Pre-election analysis is inherently more challenging than post-election.
Just popped into my fool head: Richard Nixon & Election of 1972.
Nixon was one of the most astute, if not THE most astute politicos in American history, when it came to analyzing political strategy, trends, timing, you name it. (He had same facility re: American football according to testimony of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson.)
Which did NOT stop him from making absurd judgment calls re: strategy, trends, timing, etc. Most notably re: Watergate burglary aimed at ensuring his re-election, when it was already all but assured.
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
And the other part of my argument I would ask you to consider. Looking for evidence they have signed up to May 2nd.
And as locals on May 2nd makes an April election controversial waste of Money, and disastrous locals rule out May and June, it was either May 2nd or a date mid October to early ish December.
So I started looking for the evidence to disprove or prove the hypothesis of May 2nd, and lo and behold the evidence started mounting up, I became more convinced Sunak and election team were actively at work on May 2nd.
And in the last few weeks the government confirmed to me it’s on for May 2nd. They were clearing the decks of opposition attack lines, such as tell us how much Rwanda costs, when they fessed up to this last week that was a key moment, as was the chart showing the amount Tories are spending now on social media, it’s a sharp line straight up in a spend that started straight after Christmas is massive every week and can’t be maintained like this till autumn, another key moment earlier this week, how much had been cancelled in advance from the Prime Ministers April diary. All for the local elections? Yesterday, the budget - labour now down to just one tax differential, and unfunded hole in their manifesto - is this something either of us would give Labour six months to sort out, or do in the last fiscal event just before election called?
Am I imagining all these tell tale signs? Are they real - though fit into a locals on May 2nd General Election Autumn scenario? 🤷♀️
And now if Theresa Mays announcement is true, Add the timing to the evidence.
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
Ah. I’m glad you raised that David. Because that is very central point to my hypothesis.
The Reform polling is soft to a GE “forced choice” election psychology - Tories only shed these voters to Reform within the last 18 months - these voters belong nearly exclusively to the Tories, very few to Labour. Those, and don’t knows can be persuaded to come home, and certainly it puts the Tories into a healthier polling range in the thirties, and saves so many seats.
Now here is the clever bit, all the money spent on advisors, modelling and war gaming informs the PM that the Tories can to a large extent control a campaign narrative in May, if they clear the decks, and don’t get hit by too many boat crossings. However, is the war gaming throwing up the impact of a splurge of boat crossings from July, the interim covid report, and how many households have to sign up to new higher mortgages before years end, on if this helps swingback, or in fact hinders it, hardens floaters, don’t knows and those giving Reform as preference, to less likely to come back column?
I’m saying yes. That’s what expensive modelling will be saying.
You see this at the very least trumps any marginal gains won from improving economics. The raw feelings around covid, what’s the Covid report going to say? Splurge in boat crossings putting us on for record year, what on Earth happens to Conservative Party disciplin, and Reform voters in two minds to come back to the Tories?
I don’t know if I’m explaining it well, but it’s the control in may versus lack of control if you leave it later. Can control cutting national insurance for a May election, cannot stop a splurge in boats. Cannot stop the boats. And whilst the boats keep coming, put some flights to Rwanda in the air, 400 asylum seekers at one million quid each, and it smashes the gangs and stops the boats? The voters will go ballistic 🤷♀️
If I were were Sunny, I’d go on 2 May rather than face a leadership challenge on 5 May. At least that way he can be bold.
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
And the other part of my argument I would ask you to consider. Looking for evidence they have signed up to May 2nd.
And as locals on May 2nd makes an April election controversial waste of Money, and disastrous locals rule out May and June, it was either May 2nd or a date mid October to early ish December.
So I started looking for the evidence to disprove or prove the hypothesis of May 2nd, and lo and behold the evidence started mounting up, I became more convinced Sunak and election team were actively at work on May 2nd.
And in the last few weeks the government confirmed to me it’s on for May 2nd. They were clearing the decks of opposition attack lines, such as tell us how much Rwanda costs, when they fessed up to this last week that was a key moment, as was the chart showing the amount Tories are spending now on social media, it’s a sharp line straight up in a spend that started straight after Christmas is massive every week and can’t be maintained like this till autumn, another key moment earlier this week, how much had been cancelled in advance from the Prime Ministers April diary. All for the local elections? Yesterday, the budget - labour now down to just one tax differential, and unfunded hole in their manifesto - is this something either of us would give Labour six months to sort out, or do in the last fiscal event just before election called?
Am I imagining all these tell tale signs? Are they real - though fit into a locals on May 2nd General Election Autumn scenario? 🤷♀️
And now if Theresa Mays announcement is true, Add the timing to the evidence.
Theresa May's announcement is neither here nor there. MPs have been announcing their retirements for months, and will no doubt continue to do so.
On the main point, yes, May 2 makes sense if Sunak can do it. But PeoplePolling have just dropped an 18% Con share and Lab+28 lead. No matter what No 10 and CCHQ might have planned as their preferred option, you don't call an election in those circumstances if waiting is a credible option.
Labour's 'unfunded hole' is bollocks and Labour could easily call it out as such. A billion or so here or there is a rounding error in the government spending; it really isn't a crisis and they should tell journalists to stop being so silly and swallowing No 10's lines whole.
George Osborne was AGAIN pushing the idea that Call Me Dave be retained as Foreign Secretary under Labour.
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
Dave will be FS. Lammy. Cameron - no chance whatsoever.
In USA number of examples of Presidents appointing key cabinet positions to members of opposite political party.
For example, in 1940, in the wake of the Fall of France, and on the eve of the Republican National Convention (and just weeks before his own renomination via "draft" by the Democrats) Franklin Roosevelt astounded the nation (and enraged GOPers) by nominating two leading GOPers to his cabinet:
> Henry L. Stimson, Wall Street lawyer, Sec of War under Taft & Sec of State under Hoover, as the new Secretary of War; and
> Henry Knox, Chicago newspaper publisher, 1936 Republican VP nominee, as the new Secretary of the Navy.
Both Stimson and Knox were leaders in the US movement in favor of maximum aid to the Allies versus the Nazis.
Talk about cross-over appeal!
In the very early days of the Republic, wasn't the vice-president the unsuccessful Presidential candidate?
True. But unlike Sec of State Thomas Jefferson in the Washington administration (at least GW's 1st term) Vice President Thomas Jefferson was never a member of John Adams's cabinet.
Which left time on his hands, which is why
Which is still part of the US Senate rules, though please do NOT blame him for the wretched excesses of succeeding (in a manner of speaking) centuries.
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
George Osborne was AGAIN pushing the idea that Call Me Dave be retained as Foreign Secretary under Labour.
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
Dave will be FS. Lammy. Cameron - no chance whatsoever.
In USA number of examples of Presidents appointing key cabinet positions to members of opposite political party.
For example, in 1940, in the wake of the Fall of France, and on the eve of the Republican National Convention (and just weeks before his own renomination via "draft" by the Democrats) Franklin Roosevelt astounded the nation (and enraged GOPers) by nominating two leading GOPers to his cabinet:
> Henry L. Stimson, Wall Street lawyer, Sec of War under Taft & Sec of State under Hoover, as the new Secretary of War; and
> Henry Knox, Chicago newspaper publisher, 1936 Republican VP nominee, as the new Secretary of the Navy.
Both Stimson and Knox were leaders in the US movement in favor of maximum aid to the Allies versus the Nazis.
Talk about cross-over appeal!
The USA cabinet is independent from the parliament. In the UK the cabinet is tied to the party or parties in Governemnt, so this idea although theoretically possible, has an infinitessimal chance of becoming reality.
Mostly concur. EXCEPT that House of Lords provides option that boosts odds from infinitesimal to something a bit higher.
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
You can check the documents published by the CDC using links I gave above.
Or decide to trust twitter randoms with a million Russian bot followers.
I’m not yet convinced either way. And I don’t know how you can be quite so instantly sure it’s a hoax. Further investigation required
If it’s all fake then this journalist with 15k followers is making a total fool of himself. Cui bono?
I'm not sure, though I think it's immediately suspicious that they don't link directly to the document at the CDC website. Instead of a random document-sharing website where they've uploaded their fake redacted document.
So I went to check at the CDC website directly, to find out, but I'm going to read a book instead of laboriously checking through documents on the CDC website. I look forward to hearing the result of your investigations on the CDC website.
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
As I said, the Epoch Times is anti vax (it’s also pro Trump). It has been banned by Facebook. But then Facebook banned any DISCUSSION of the “lab leak conspiracy theory” for a year - a theory now accepted by many as true and by most as certainly highly plausible
So who to believe in this post truth era? The US and UK governments lied and lied again about Covid
The epoch times journalist concerned has posted more CDC documents he claims that he FOIA’d. They look legitimate to me. But he could be faking? I genuinely dunno
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
And the other part of my argument I would ask you to consider. Looking for evidence they have signed up to May 2nd.
And as locals on May 2nd makes an April election controversial waste of Money, and disastrous locals rule out May and June, it was either May 2nd or a date mid October to early ish December.
So I started looking for the evidence to disprove or prove the hypothesis of May 2nd, and lo and behold the evidence started mounting up, I became more convinced Sunak and election team were actively at work on May 2nd.
And in the last few weeks the government confirmed to me it’s on for May 2nd. They were clearing the decks of opposition attack lines, such as tell us how much Rwanda costs, when they fessed up to this last week that was a key moment, as was the chart showing the amount Tories are spending now on social media, it’s a sharp line straight up in a spend that started straight after Christmas is massive every week and can’t be maintained like this till autumn, another key moment earlier this week, how much had been cancelled in advance from the Prime Ministers April diary. All for the local elections? Yesterday, the budget - labour now down to just one tax differential, and unfunded hole in their manifesto - is this something either of us would give Labour six months to sort out, or do in the last fiscal event just before election called?
Am I imagining all these tell tale signs? Are they real - though fit into a locals on May 2nd General Election Autumn scenario? 🤷♀️
And now if Theresa Mays announcement is true, Add the timing to the evidence.
Theresa May's announcement is neither here nor there. MPs have been announcing their retirements for months, and will no doubt continue to do so.
On the main point, yes, May 2 makes sense if Sunak can do it. But PeoplePolling have just dropped an 18% Con share and Lab+28 lead. No matter what No 10 and CCHQ might have planned as their preferred option, you don't call an election in those circumstances if waiting is a credible option.
Labour's 'unfunded hole' is bollocks and Labour could easily call it out as such. A billion or so here or there is a rounding error in the government spending; it really isn't a crisis and they should tell journalists to stop being so silly and swallowing No 10's lines whole.
Her point, I think, is that waiting is NOT a credible option.
FWIW, I doubt the election will be on 2 May. But, if I were Sunny, I’d go for it rather than face the humiliation of a leadership challenge after a likely rout in the locals.
Are we expecting any polling tonight, or will it be tomorrow for the post budget voting intentions?
I think that we are expecting YouGov, We Think, Techne and Survation with the last three tomorrow. Opinium will be over the weekend. Any others, BMG?
Everything seems unnaturally quiet these days, in uk politics. The budget was seemingly a dud, there are no big issues. Is this quiet before a storm?
The big issue is that both Tory and Labour are pretending that there are neither tax rises nor massive spending cuts on the way. Both know that its true, but won't admit it, at least not this side of an election.
They think voters are idiots.
Conservatives can't tell the fiscal truth, because it would mean admitting how much they have soiled the bed.
And that means that Labour can't, because denying reality beats acknowledging it.
Reeves gets exactly one shot at "the Tory mess is even worse than we imagined". I think I trust her and Starmer to use that better than any Downing Street team of my adulthood. Whether they use it well enough remains to be seen.
As for May or December... My assumption has been that that the government would hang on, not because things would get better but to bank a few more months in office. But there's nothing left, is there?
You must be younger than I imagined.
I think Liam Byrne’s letter (“there’s no money left”) will take some beating
Our network now reaches 1/4 of Londoners. It's enabled a massive growth in cycling to 1.26m journeys per day - making London a greener safer & healthier city for all. https://twitter.com/i/status/1765330616529141761
By the look of that it needs around another 1000km to cover all areas with a strategic-ish network, and one element of the basic job will be in place. Current modal share London wide is 4.5%, and 10% in the centre on a tiny % of the road space.
Our network now reaches 1/4 of Londoners. It's enabled a massive growth in cycling to 1.26m journeys per day - making London a greener safer & healthier city for all. https://twitter.com/i/status/1765330616529141761
By the look of that it needs around another 1000km to cover all areas with a strategic-ish network, and one element of the basic job will be in place. Current modal share London wide is 4.5%, and 10% in the centre on a tiny % of the road space.
Yes we KHAN!
Will Norman has tweaked the addresses so I can't get at the animated GIF easily. Boo.
2016 (ie the Boris start)
2024
High quality network within 400m of everywhere is the success criterion on this particular programme. The target is within reach of 40% of the population by 2030, which is a measure of the amount of catching up to do.
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
And the other part of my argument I would ask you to consider. Looking for evidence they have signed up to May 2nd.
And as locals on May 2nd makes an April election controversial waste of Money, and disastrous locals rule out May and June, it was either May 2nd or a date mid October to early ish December.
So I started looking for the evidence to disprove or prove the hypothesis of May 2nd, and lo and behold the evidence started mounting up, I became more convinced Sunak and election team were actively at work on May 2nd.
And in the last few weeks the government confirmed to me it’s on for May 2nd. They were clearing the decks of opposition attack lines, such as tell us how much Rwanda costs, when they fessed up to this last week that was a key moment, as was the chart showing the amount Tories are spending now on social media, it’s a sharp line straight up in a spend that started straight after Christmas is massive every week and can’t be maintained like this till autumn, another key moment earlier this week, how much had been cancelled in advance from the Prime Ministers April diary. All for the local elections? Yesterday, the budget - labour now down to just one tax differential, and unfunded hole in their manifesto - is this something either of us would give Labour six months to sort out, or do in the last fiscal event just before election called?
Am I imagining all these tell tale signs? Are they real - though fit into a locals on May 2nd General Election Autumn scenario? 🤷♀️
And now if Theresa Mays announcement is true, Add the timing to the evidence.
Theresa May's announcement is neither here nor there. MPs have been announcing their retirements for months, and will no doubt continue to do so.
On the main point, yes, May 2 makes sense if Sunak can do it. But PeoplePolling have just dropped an 18% Con share and Lab+28 lead. No matter what No 10 and CCHQ might have planned as their preferred option, you don't call an election in those circumstances if waiting is a credible option.
Labour's 'unfunded hole' is bollocks and Labour could easily call it out as such. A billion or so here or there is a rounding error in the government spending; it really isn't a crisis and they should tell journalists to stop being so silly and swallowing No 10's lines whole.
Her point, I think, is that waiting is NOT a credible option.
FWIW, I doubt the election will be on 2 May. But, if I were Sunny, I’d go for it rather than face the humiliation of a leadership challenge after a likely rout in the locals.
The other way of looking at it of course, is that there is a genuine risk of annihilation of the conservative party if he waits till later in the year. Better to have the well deserved landslide loss and come back in time - possibly a very short time - than die as a party and be remembered as the last ever conservative prime minister. And he does strike as more of a maximin than a minimax guy.
(Not a prediction and I don't know what I believe myself, but I think that's a potentially convincing argument)
On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!
It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".
I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.
Oh, I think I see what you mean.
Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
And the other part of my argument I would ask you to consider. Looking for evidence they have signed up to May 2nd.
And as locals on May 2nd makes an April election controversial waste of Money, and disastrous locals rule out May and June, it was either May 2nd or a date mid October to early ish December.
So I started looking for the evidence to disprove or prove the hypothesis of May 2nd, and lo and behold the evidence started mounting up, I became more convinced Sunak and election team were actively at work on May 2nd.
And in the last few weeks the government confirmed to me it’s on for May 2nd. They were clearing the decks of opposition attack lines, such as tell us how much Rwanda costs, when they fessed up to this last week that was a key moment, as was the chart showing the amount Tories are spending now on social media, it’s a sharp line straight up in a spend that started straight after Christmas is massive every week and can’t be maintained like this till autumn, another key moment earlier this week, how much had been cancelled in advance from the Prime Ministers April diary. All for the local elections? Yesterday, the budget - labour now down to just one tax differential, and unfunded hole in their manifesto - is this something either of us would give Labour six months to sort out, or do in the last fiscal event just before election called?
Am I imagining all these tell tale signs? Are they real - though fit into a locals on May 2nd General Election Autumn scenario? 🤷♀️
And now if Theresa Mays announcement is true, Add the timing to the evidence.
Theresa May's announcement is neither here nor there. MPs have been announcing their retirements for months, and will no doubt continue to do so.
On the main point, yes, May 2 makes sense if Sunak can do it. But PeoplePolling have just dropped an 18% Con share and Lab+28 lead. No matter what No 10 and CCHQ might have planned as their preferred option, you don't call an election in those circumstances if waiting is a credible option.
Labour's 'unfunded hole' is bollocks and Labour could easily call it out as such. A billion or so here or there is a rounding error in the government spending; it really isn't a crisis and they should tell journalists to stop being so silly and swallowing No 10's lines whole.
But all this unicorn polling is bogus. Meaningless. All polling from the last 2 years showing Reform and Green above 3%, you can place in a bin right now, as such quantity of wasted protest votes - evident in polling and by elections for more than a year - is definitely not going to happen on GE day.
The whole psychology of a General Election is different, will transform into scenario very different from the eighteen month build up, and the reason for this is the total for others in all polling is unsustainably high for what will suddenly become a two horse race in the minds of voters, as only 1 of 2 men can be elected Prime Minister.
The pollsters are letting us down as political bettors and armchair analysts. The Tory’s are not anywhere near low as 18%. To match the psyche of a GE event, pollsters need to do more forced choice polling for public consumption and not just for the Tory re-election team. Otherwise pollsters are going to utterly absolutely embarrass themselves.
Last forced choice poll I have, was by Delta in March 24, with Lab lead just 11 points - 42% to 31%, on forced choice. Tories on 31% even before proper swingback begins now with confirmation of the date, the voters go into forced choice mindset which needs to be captured properly, and the Conservatives goes for the jugular of Labours safety first “balloon fiddling” campaign. 42%-31% can tighten still further is what I expect from that same poll series.
But only in May, It’s the ability to get voters back in May which war gaming shows as lessened or blown away by Autumn, that decides the election is May 2nd.
Our network now reaches 1/4 of Londoners. It's enabled a massive growth in cycling to 1.26m journeys per day - making London a greener safer & healthier city for all. https://twitter.com/i/status/1765330616529141761
By the look of that it needs around another 1000km to cover all areas with a strategic-ish network, and one element of the basic job will be in place. Current modal share London wide is 4.5%, and 10% in the centre on a tiny % of the road space.
Yes we KHAN!
Will Norman has tweaked the addresses so I can't get at the animated GIF easily. Boo.
2016 (ie the Boris start)
2024
High quality network within 400m of everywhere is the success criterion on this particular programme. The target is within reach of 40% of the population by 2030, which is a measure of the amount of catching up to do.
I got a Brompton Electric because it can (a) fit in a cupboard in my flat, and (b) allows me to get around incredibly quickly. For getting around Central London, the cycle lanes are amazing.
Marjorie Taylor Greene heckles Biden and demands he recognize Laken Riley: "What about Laken Riley?"
Joe Biden: "Lincoln Riley? An innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal! That's right? But how many of thousands of people being killed by illegals?"
Marjorie Taylor Greene heckles Biden and demands he recognize Laken Riley: "What about Laken Riley?"
Joe Biden: "Lincoln Riley? An innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal! That's right? But how many of thousands of people being killed by illegals?"
George Osborne was AGAIN pushing the idea that Call Me Dave be retained as Foreign Secretary under Labour.
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
Dave will be FS. Lammy. Cameron - no chance whatsoever.
In USA number of examples of Presidents appointing key cabinet positions to members of opposite political party.
For example, in 1940, in the wake of the Fall of France, and on the eve of the Republican National Convention (and just weeks before his own renomination via "draft" by the Democrats) Franklin Roosevelt astounded the nation (and enraged GOPers) by nominating two leading GOPers to his cabinet:
> Henry L. Stimson, Wall Street lawyer, Sec of War under Taft & Sec of State under Hoover, as the new Secretary of War; and
> Henry Knox, Chicago newspaper publisher, 1936 Republican VP nominee, as the new Secretary of the Navy.
Both Stimson and Knox were leaders in the US movement in favor of maximum aid to the Allies versus the Nazis.
Talk about cross-over appeal!
The USA cabinet is independent from the parliament. In the UK the cabinet is tied to the party or parties in Governemnt, so this idea although theoretically possible, has an infinitessimal chance of becoming reality.
Exactly. Cammo would become party to every Labour cabinet discussion about everything, and that’s just not never ever going to happen.
Marjorie Taylor Greene heckles Biden and demands he recognize Laken Riley: "What about Laken Riley?"
Joe Biden: "Lincoln Riley? An innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal! That's right? But how many of thousands of people being killed by illegals?"
It’s really quite sad to watch. The guy is clearly losing his mind, something that isn’t going to get better in the next five years.
Someone needs to be nominated to tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough, but sadly I don’t think anyone will.
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
The Internet is full of misinformation. Some of it backs up our world view and is therefore appealing, lots of it does not.
If you see something that sounds amazing, you have to ask yourself if it is true. The more amazing something is, the less likely it is to be the whole truth - because to be amazing, things have to be relatively rare. Otherwise they're ordinary.
So it's worthwhile doing a quick check. First, the source. Is it reliable? Is it from a reputable news organisation, or a throwaway Twitter account? Is the source reliable, or does it have a hefty agenda to push - and as most do, how does that agenda fit in with the information.
Secondly, can it be verified? In this case, it should be easily verifiable, as it claims to be from the CDC. Try to find the document yourself, or look if it is provided. Then go and check it. Or do a Google search to see if the information is being repeated by reputable sources.
Thirdly, scroll down the comments. For scandalous thins, 99% of the comments will be trash. But occasionally you got a contrary voice that might cause you to wonder about the validity of the information.
Fourthly, ask yourself: "Am I going to make myself look an idiot if I post this?" If it may, is it worth it? If not, perhaps don't post.
We all fall for this at times. @Leon falls for it *all* the time.
Listening to the Biden speech, I wonder if his medicine price changes will have an electoaal impact?
Having delivered insulin at $35 a month max for Medicaid for everyone, he says that he intends to do the same for everyone who needs it in the USA.
There are 1.5 million people in the USA with Type 1 diabetes, and a further 35+ million who have Type 2. Of the Type 2s a further 3+ million take insulin.
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
You can check the documents published by the CDC using links I gave above.
Or decide to trust twitter randoms with a million Russian bot followers.
I’m not yet convinced either way. And I don’t know how you can be quite so instantly sure it’s a hoax. Further investigation required
If it’s all fake then this journalist with 15k followers is making a total fool of himself. Cui bono?
How many followers does Tucker have ? Or RFK. ?
As for cui bono, anti-vax is big business in the US. 'Coverup' is utterly ridiculous for products which have been used by billions of people across the globe. Which are by law monitored for safety in multiple countries. You understand probability better than that.
Incidentally, did you see the report on the guy who'd managed to get himself vaccinated 200 times ?
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
As I said, the Epoch Times is anti vax (it’s also pro Trump). It has been banned by Facebook. But then Facebook banned any DISCUSSION of the “lab leak conspiracy theory” for a year - a theory now accepted by many as true and by most as certainly highly plausible
So who to believe in this post truth era? The US and UK governments lied and lied again about Covid
The epoch times journalist concerned has posted more CDC documents he claims that he FOIA’d. They look legitimate to me. But he could be faking? I genuinely dunno
Don’t want to come over all Vladimir Antivax but this is…. Quite odd
“The CDC "released" a 148 page study on myocarditis after COVID-19 "vaccination" and every single page is completely redacted. This must be a new record.”
The Internet is full of misinformation. Some of it backs up our world view and is therefore appealing, lots of it does not.
If you see something that sounds amazing, you have to ask yourself if it is true. The more amazing something is, the less likely it is to be the whole truth - because to be amazing, things have to be relatively rare. Otherwise they're ordinary.
So it's worthwhile doing a quick check. First, the source. Is it reliable? Is it from a reputable news organisation, or a throwaway Twitter account? Is the source reliable, or does it have a hefty agenda to push - and as most do, how does that agenda fit in with the information.
Secondly, can it be verified? In this case, it should be easily verifiable, as it claims to be from the CDC. Try to find the document yourself, or look if it is provided. Then go and check it. Or do a Google search to see if the information is being repeated by reputable sources.
Thirdly, scroll down the comments. For scandalous thins, 99% of the comments will be trash. But occasionally you got a contrary voice that might cause you to wonder about the validity of the information.
Fourthly, ask yourself: "Am I going to make myself look an idiot if I post this?" If it may, is it worth it? If not, perhaps don't post.
We all fall for this at times. @Leon falls for it *all* the time.
The fundamental question is what mental deficiency, or illness, or repressed trauma or unfulfilled desire or whatever it is, makes Leon want to post a never-ending stream of obsessive crap? It’s obvious he’s doing it for himself rather than for us, and until he gets to the bottom of where and why the screw is loose, no amount of telling him to check things will get him to change.
Comments
Interesting idea. Cammo is a good FS.
Probably very little chance of it happening.
I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.
And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?
An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
Another one to toss into the dustbin of history.
Would say, however, that political history of UK shows that, while intensive analysis of optimum election dates is norm, also normal for the results to be, like the answers of the Oracle of Delphi, to be somewhat less than clear cut, and capable of multiple interpretations.
In the end, comes down to the PM's gut instincts.
Suggesting he should start each day off right(wing) with a hearty breakfast of top-quality probiotic yogurt.
I'm not counting National Labour in 1931, who clearly were a splinter faction - or likewise the Nat Libs when the main body of the Liberals withdrew from the National govt.
The Spam Trapper is a merciless, vicious beast.
Any examples in UK, with this arcane non fixed and at PM discretion system, where hanging on for voters to come home as economic news improves, actually worked?
97? No. 79? No. 2010? Arguably not, it was fear of NHS in Tory hands that helped Brown hold seats, not the economy picking up. 1992, complete opposite, recession going in, during and after election, it was the “don’t let opposition trample green shoots of recovery” message what won it.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/research/publications/
The tweet links to a "document cloud" rather than to the CDC website.
Now you're right that plenty of Republican primary voters didn't back Trump, whereas a smaller proportion of Democrat voters didn't back Biden - but then Trump had proper opponents rather than just RON/NotA type options. Question is how many Haley voters will line up behind him in November (and, even more importantly, those who didn't vote at all)?
Trump lost the popular vote by 7m but still nearly came out on top. Voter suppression will be the main part of his game: persuading voters that Biden isn't up to it, as well as a failure - plus rigging the system wherever possible. It's completely in the balance.
What isn't in the balance - barring major health issues - is the lineup. No West Wing scripts, please: it's a rematch of 2020.
Check yourself at:
https://foia.cdc.gov/app/ReadingRoomPopularDocument.aspx
For example, in 1940, in the wake of the Fall of France, and on the eve of the Republican National Convention (and just weeks before his own renomination via "draft" by the Democrats) Franklin Roosevelt astounded the nation (and enraged GOPers) by nominating two leading GOPers to his cabinet:
> Henry L. Stimson, Wall Street lawyer, Sec of War under Taft & Sec of State under Hoover, as the new Secretary of War; and
> Henry Knox, Chicago newspaper publisher, 1936 Republican VP nominee, as the new Secretary of the Navy.
Both Stimson and Knox were leaders in the US movement in favor of maximum aid to the Allies versus the Nazis.
Talk about cross-over appeal!
https://x.com/MattStevns/status/1765867873631621329?s=20
I think Liam Byrne’s letter (“there’s no money left”) will take some beating
Never heard of them. Probably BS.
E.Miliband’s former fling Stephanie Flanders was on QT tonight.
Hmm
Someone has Goodwinned the thread. AGAIN, albeit unwittingly.
I assume because it’s him the poll must be dodgy in many ways.
The Reform polling is soft to a GE “forced choice” election psychology - Tories only shed these voters to Reform within the last 18 months - these voters belong nearly exclusively to the Tories, very few to Labour. Those, and don’t knows can be persuaded to come home, and certainly it puts the Tories into a healthier polling range in the thirties, and saves so many seats.
Now here is the clever bit, all the money spent on advisors, modelling and war gaming informs the PM that the Tories can to a large extent control a campaign narrative in May, if they clear the decks, and don’t get hit by too many boat crossings. However, is the war gaming throwing up the impact of a splurge of boat crossings from July, the interim covid report, and how many households have to sign up to new higher mortgages before years end, on if this helps swingback, or in fact hinders it, hardens floaters, don’t knows and those giving Reform as preference, to less likely to come back column?
I’m saying yes. That’s what expensive modelling will be saying.
You see this at the very least trumps any marginal gains won from improving economics. The raw feelings around covid, what’s the Covid report going to say? Splurge in boat crossings putting us on for record year, what on Earth happens to Conservative Party disciplin, and Reform voters in two minds to come back to the Tories?
I don’t know if I’m explaining it well, but it’s the control in may versus lack of control if you leave it later. Can control cutting national insurance for a May election, cannot stop a splurge in boats. Cannot stop the boats. And whilst the boats keep coming, put some flights to Rwanda in the air, 400 asylum seekers at one million quid each, and it smashes the gangs and stops the boats? The voters will go ballistic 🤷♀️
They are definitely anti vax but would they just make this up?
There are people with 1m+ followers saying this is legit. I just don’t know
https://x.com/zackstieber/status/1765832981363503434?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Bradley down the plugholes.
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/budget-news-labour-tories-rachel-reeves-jeremy-hunt
Or decide to trust twitter randoms with a million Russian bot followers.
In fairness it's hard to see why Sunak needed to either, since it hasn't been paired with some kind of clear strategy to appeal to centrists or something, so it comes across as either random or a desperate move to avoid reshuffling any wider.
Didn't think so!
Pre-election analysis is inherently more challenging than post-election.
Just popped into my fool head: Richard Nixon & Election of 1972.
Nixon was one of the most astute, if not THE most astute politicos in American history, when it came to analyzing political strategy, trends, timing, you name it. (He had same facility re: American football according to testimony of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson.)
Which did NOT stop him from making absurd judgment calls re: strategy, trends, timing, etc. Most notably re: Watergate burglary aimed at ensuring his re-election, when it was already all but assured.
Sometimes politicos just do the darned things.
And as locals on May 2nd makes an April election controversial waste of Money, and disastrous locals rule out May and June, it was either May 2nd or a date mid October to early ish December.
So I started looking for the evidence to disprove or prove the hypothesis of May 2nd, and lo and behold the evidence started mounting up, I became more convinced Sunak and election team were actively at work on May 2nd.
And in the last few weeks the government confirmed to me it’s on for May 2nd. They were clearing the decks of opposition attack lines, such as tell us how much Rwanda costs, when they fessed up to this last week that was a key moment, as was the chart showing the amount Tories are spending now on social media, it’s a sharp line straight up in a spend that started straight after Christmas is massive every week and can’t be maintained like this till autumn, another key moment earlier this week, how much had been cancelled in advance from the Prime Ministers April diary. All for the local elections? Yesterday, the budget - labour now down to just one tax differential, and unfunded hole in their manifesto - is this something either of us would give Labour six months to sort out, or do in the last fiscal event just before election called?
Am I imagining all these tell tale signs? Are they real - though fit into a locals on May 2nd General Election Autumn scenario? 🤷♀️
And now if Theresa Mays announcement is true, Add the timing to the evidence.
If it’s all fake then this journalist with 15k followers is making a total fool of himself. Cui bono?
On the main point, yes, May 2 makes sense if Sunak can do it. But PeoplePolling have just dropped an 18% Con share and Lab+28 lead. No matter what No 10 and CCHQ might have planned as their preferred option, you don't call an election in those circumstances if waiting is a credible option.
Labour's 'unfunded hole' is bollocks and Labour could easily call it out as such. A billion or so here or there is a rounding error in the government spending; it really isn't a crisis and they should tell journalists to stop being so silly and swallowing No 10's lines whole.
Which left time on his hands, which is why
Which is still part of the US Senate rules, though please do NOT blame him for the wretched excesses of succeeding (in a manner of speaking) centuries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
Perhaps.
So I went to check at the CDC website directly, to find out, but I'm going to read a book instead of laboriously checking through documents on the CDC website. I look forward to hearing the result of your investigations on the CDC website.
So who to believe in this post truth era? The US and UK governments lied and lied again about Covid
The epoch times journalist concerned has posted more CDC documents he claims that he FOIA’d. They look legitimate to me. But he could be faking? I genuinely dunno
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24464054-cdc-moving-foia-2
Like the man in the orthopaedic shoes, I stand corrected.
FWIW, I doubt the election will be on 2 May. But, if I were Sunny, I’d go for it rather than face the humiliation of a leadership challenge after a likely rout in the locals.
Embed failed.
Like a happily violent Melbourne run by drunken Koreans and escaped gay slaves
2016 (ie the Boris start)
2024
High quality network within 400m of everywhere is the success criterion on this particular programme. The target is within reach of 40% of the population by 2030, which is a measure of the amount of catching up to do.
(Not a prediction and I don't know what I believe myself, but I think that's a potentially convincing argument)
The whole psychology of a General Election is different, will transform into scenario very different from the eighteen month build up, and the reason for this is the total for others in all polling is unsustainably high for what will suddenly become a two horse race in the minds of voters, as only 1 of 2 men can be elected Prime Minister.
The pollsters are letting us down as political bettors and armchair analysts. The Tory’s are not anywhere near low as 18%. To match the psyche of a GE event, pollsters need to do more forced choice polling for public consumption and not just for the Tory re-election team. Otherwise pollsters are going to utterly absolutely embarrass themselves.
Last forced choice poll I have, was by Delta in March 24, with Lab lead just 11 points - 42% to 31%, on forced choice. Tories on 31% even before proper swingback begins now with confirmation of the date, the voters go into forced choice mindset which needs to be captured properly, and the Conservatives goes for the jugular of Labours safety first “balloon fiddling” campaign. 42%-31% can tighten still further is what I expect from that same poll series.
But only in May, It’s the ability to get voters back in May which war gaming shows as lessened or blown away by Autumn, that decides the election is May 2nd.
Big city. Used to be run by Pablo Escobar. This guy
He has done nothing to convince me that he isn't far too old to hold any public office.
No one should be elected to office after their 75th birthday.
Marjorie Taylor Greene heckles Biden and demands he recognize Laken Riley: "What about Laken Riley?"
Joe Biden: "Lincoln Riley? An innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal! That's right? But how many of thousands of people being killed by illegals?"
Someone needs to be nominated to tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough, but sadly I don’t think anyone will.
The Internet is full of misinformation. Some of it backs up our world view and is therefore appealing, lots of it does not.
If you see something that sounds amazing, you have to ask yourself if it is true. The more amazing something is, the less likely it is to be the whole truth - because to be amazing, things have to be relatively rare. Otherwise they're ordinary.
So it's worthwhile doing a quick check. First, the source. Is it reliable? Is it from a reputable news organisation, or a throwaway Twitter account? Is the source reliable, or does it have a hefty agenda to push - and as most do, how does that agenda fit in with the information.
Secondly, can it be verified? In this case, it should be easily verifiable, as it claims to be from the CDC. Try to find the document yourself, or look if it is provided. Then go and check it. Or do a Google search to see if the information is being repeated by reputable sources.
Thirdly, scroll down the comments. For scandalous thins, 99% of the comments will be trash. But occasionally you got a contrary voice that might cause you to wonder about the validity of the information.
Fourthly, ask yourself: "Am I going to make myself look an idiot if I post this?" If it may, is it worth it? If not, perhaps don't post.
We all fall for this at times. @Leon falls for it *all* the time.
Having delivered insulin at $35 a month max for Medicaid for everyone, he says that he intends to do the same for everyone who needs it in the USA.
There are 1.5 million people in the USA with Type 1 diabetes, and a further 35+ million who have Type 2. Of the Type 2s a further 3+ million take insulin.
That's a lot of voters.
Or RFK. ?
As for cui bono, anti-vax is big business in the US. 'Coverup' is utterly ridiculous for products which have been used by billions of people across the globe. Which are by law monitored for safety in multiple countries.
You understand probability better than that.
Incidentally, did you see the report on the guy who'd managed to get himself vaccinated 200 times ?