Some context for budget week – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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PB?JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!0 -
Why, I wonder, is Sunak 7/1 and not 33/1 to be PM after the next election (Hills)? I think a NOM result is possible, though receding a bit since Christmas, but not a Tory government.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
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How comparatively good Major was in 1997 (and how effective his government was) is a serious factor in any comparison with that time.Stuartinromford said:
Aren't you doing much the same from the opposite direction?Casino_Royale said:
This is just wishful thinking.eek said:
That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...Casino_Royale said:
I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.Foxy said:
Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
It's true that it's very hard to detect enthusiasm for Labour, unlike 1997.
But Sunak is also a far weaker candidate than Major, even in his death throes. So the gap between the parties is pretty much 1997-like.
Anecdotally, I *despised* the flim-flam of Tony Blair's New Labour (albeit I was apparently in a minority) and genuinely feared they would make a mess of the work Major had done - not just economically. That kept me in the Tory fold through to 2015 (despite assorted misgivings).
(As it happens, that first Blair government capitalized on the outgoing administrations strengths; it was only later that the weaknesses (largely hubris - excessive borrowing in good times, terrible PFI dealmaking, tax complication, foreign wars etc.) dominated. So there is potential for those you cannot stand to surprise on the upside, at least for a while.)1 -
Dan was very fair to Rayner and it’s a shame she didn’t seem to take his advice. I think lots of shocked TwiX followers had assumed he would only skewer Tories and decided he was a traitor for discussing her story.TheScreamingEagles said:
Michelle Mone in prison.Taz said:Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.
I wonder where this story ends.
https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61
Which coincidentally is another story I’ve long thought about.
General gist has been once he gets hold of something it’s a bad idea to try to Streisand it away, as Mone attempted to.0 -
You don't need a large number of people to form a serious opposition - just a comparatively small number with the capability to hold them to account - especially on committees, but also in the press.Nigelb said:
Whether or not they deserve it isn't really the issue. Rather, how well might government function without a serious opposition ?JosiasJessop said:
I've been predicting a humongous Labour majority for some time. They don't deserve it, but the Conservatives sure as heck do deserve a drubbing.Nigelb said:
The most interesting bit of Alastair's piece was this:JosiasJessop said:
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
...At the upper bound of what we can reasonably currently expect, we are looking at something close to a one party Parliament the like of which has not been seen before in Britain. I do not think that government, MPs, the media or the public have begun to absorb this. It’s about time that they did.
Unlikely, perhaps. But it's far from impossible.
With a following wind, we'll get a few unexpectedly bright people elected who didn't really expect it, on the LD benches. Or maybe a few of those Tory candidates who are replacing the incumbents who don't want to go down in flames will actually hang on and not be terrible. But this feels a bit like straw-clutching. Where do the next generation of quality politicians come from? Or does the whole thing have to fester away until something collapses?0 -
Honestly, it is the scariest sentence in the English that Dan Neidle is looking into your tax affairs.TimS said:
Dan was very fair to Rayner and it’s a shame she didn’t seem to take his advice. I think lots of shocked TwiX followers had assumed he would only skewer Tories and decided he was a traitor for discussing her story.TheScreamingEagles said:
Michelle Mone in prison.Taz said:Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.
I wonder where this story ends.
https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61
Which coincidentally is another story I’ve long thought about.
General gist has been once he gets hold of something it’s a bad idea to try to Streisand it away, as Mone attempted to.1 -
Unless Hunt is on a total distraction exercise there isn't a plan for a budget timebomb - which is slightly to the government's credit.RochdalePioneers said:
That "smaller Labour win" is a 140 majority landslide...DecrepiterJohnL said:
Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
If Sunak has any balls he will stick to plan A and go for 2nd May. Launch a campaign straight off the back of a budget which throws in a Labour-confusing curve ball and then keep banging away at it. Hope that with even a bit of momentum going into the election that you can pull off some kind of result.
On practically every metric is is the right play. But he won't. He will be indecisive and miss the deadline. Once they slide on past May it turns into an avalanche, and all of the reasons why they slid past May repeat again for any other date. Which is how we get to 12th December (5th anniversary) or 23rd January as the two options.
It is in nobody's interests - especially Starmer's - for there to be a Labour mega-landslide. No matter how much of a kicking people want to give the Tories. BTW there would be tactical switching - it would be a LD pick-up in places like Hunt's seat, not Labour. But even so.
SFAICS, unless Labour make Jezza and Galloway joint leader and plan to declare war on Sweden and close down the NHS, Labour have left it late for failing to win at least a NOM government in the GE.
If Trussites were is charge the suicide plan might be: Budget this week with a plan to abolish VAT, Income Tax and NI, cut interest rates to 1% and build 10,000,000 homes this year everywhere but your village or town, abolish judicial review and cure all diseases; with all plans to be legislated and implemented only in June 2024 following a 2nd May election announced at the same time as the budget.0 -
Well here's £170 billion of it. I wonder how much your vote is responsible for.....£170,000.000.000 divided by 17,000,000 =DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/london-mayor-says-brexit-has-cost-uk-over-178-bln-so-far-2024-01-11/1 -
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I find it remarkable that despite alleged industrial scale fast track PPE corruption, allegedly benefitting Ministers and their families, the fall guy is a council house skank.TheScreamingEagles said:
Michelle Mone in prison.Taz said:Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.
I wonder where this story ends.
https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61
Which coincidentally is another story I’ve long thought about.
Angela Rayner's council house transaction? Lock her up! Greensill? Move along, nothing to see.2 -
Only £170bn ???Roger said:
Well here's £170 billion of it. I wonder how much your vote is responsible for.....£170,000.000.000 divided by 17,000,000 =DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/london-mayor-says-brexit-has-cost-uk-over-178-bln-so-far-2024-01-11/
Why not a gazillion bazillion trillion ?
Given that we have full employment and more immigration than the country can cope with where does this extra money come from ?
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I’m dead already, apparently, and have been for a dozen years!OnlyLivingBoy said:
PB?JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!12 -
From the side of a bus?another_richard said:
Only £170bn ???Roger said:
Well here's £170 billion of it. I wonder how much your vote is responsible for.....£170,000.000.000 divided by 17,000,000 =DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/london-mayor-says-brexit-has-cost-uk-over-178-bln-so-far-2024-01-11/
Why not a gazillion bazillion trillion ?
Given that we have full employment and more immigration than the country can cope with where does this extra money come from ?3 -
"“Are they stupid?!” – Liz Truss economics explained", Gary Stevenson interview, New Statesman, Oct 17, 2022, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcLw8cT5Lgs0
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You can't have it all - but I'm pretty sure I'd make better choices if I were to get the chance.Casino_Royale said:
It'd be nice to rerun my twenties now, with all the money and confidence I have now. And, yes, the women - amazing.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a Ricky Gervais routine about health where he points out that any extra years you live come at the end of your life, you don't get another decade of being in your twenties.JosiasJessop said:
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
Trouble is you'd probably be equally frustrated professionally. Very unlikely to get the top senior roles at that age, although not impossible. And also slightly at odds with having a very "good time".0 -
PB's commentariat seems slightly more diverse than I imagined.OldKingCole said:
I’m dead already, apparently, and have been for a dozen years!OnlyLivingBoy said:
PB?JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!2 -
Its not just about how big the economy is or how much of that is spent on the NHS.DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
Its also how effectively that money is spent.
The NHS is a long way down the law of diminishing returns path,
Encouraging people to take better care of their own health and allowing assisted suicide are the ways forward.1 -
I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?0 -
I think plod is taking a firmer line.Pulpstar said:I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?
Well done Sadiq.0 -
You're Jesus and I claim my £5 !OldKingCole said:
I’m dead already, apparently, and have been for a dozen years!OnlyLivingBoy said:
PB?JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!1 -
Quote from that interviewviewcode said:"“Are they stupid?!” – Liz Truss economics explained", Gary Stevenson interview, New Statesman, Oct 17, 2022, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcLw8cT5Lgs
"...if you want to improve the economy really seriously you have to stop wealth inequality from increasing or at least make it decrease. You know from the way I see it this wealth inequality is growing really rapidly and it's a cancer in the economy. You can do whatever you like but if you don't fix that cancer we're for a bad time. When I look at Labor's policies I don't see anything that is seriously going to bring wealth inequality down or even in fact stop it growing.
What I see as a party that will most likely decrease the rate at which wealth and equality is increasing so these guys are going to decrease the rate at which the cancer is growing. I mean it's better your cancer grow slowly than it grows quickly but if you don't stop it from growing then your future is going to be bad, right, so it was very difficult for me to be optimistic at this conference, because whilst I'm aware they will probably win I don't believe they're going to do anything serious about wealth inequality.
So I'm trying to talk to the people, because ultimately it is ordinary families that will be hurt by this and I want people to hold parties like Labour's feet to the fire and say "listen it's not enough that you make a few, like, tinkering around the edges, you need to do something serious. Measure what is happening with wealth inequality [and] create systems such that wealth flows out of super wealthy families and into ordinary families. And there's lots of different ways you could do that..."2 -
Perhaps climate change is no longer fashionable.Pulpstar said:I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?
Gaza is.0 -
Goldman Sachs did a cost/benefit analysis on the new obesity drugs, and reckoned a take up by 60 million obese individuals would add 1% to GDP.
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/22/weight-loss-drugs-economy-ozempic0 -
Dr Evil says Hi!another_richard said:
Only £170bn ???Roger said:
Well here's £170 billion of it. I wonder how much your vote is responsible for.....£170,000.000.000 divided by 17,000,000 =DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/london-mayor-says-brexit-has-cost-uk-over-178-bln-so-far-2024-01-11/
Why not a gazillion bazillion trillion ?
Given that we have full employment and more immigration than the country can cope with where does this extra money come from ?1 -
I expect a Labour landslide. I don't expect a Tory wipe out. Why? Well I expect Labour to do very well and possibly too well in the LD/Tory seats. And for a Tory wipe out the LDs have to take a lot of these seats. On the LDs current poll ratings I expect them to take the obvious LD targets but I can see in the rest Labour piling up votes instead of the LDs taking the seats.Chris said:
Surely, on the basis of the polls, this kind of differential turnout is the only thing that could avert a Labour landslide. Either that or a differential movement of Don't Knows to the Tories.Casino_Royale said:
No, I think a wipeout is perfectly possible.Stuartinromford said:
Aren't you doing much the same from the opposite direction?Casino_Royale said:
This is just wishful thinking.eek said:
That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...Casino_Royale said:
I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.Foxy said:
Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
It's true that it's very hard to detect enthusiasm for Labour, unlike 1997.
But Sunak is also a far weaker candidate than Major, even in his death throes. So the gap between the parties is pretty much 1997-like.
I just don't agree with the assertion that voters I don't like will stay at home whereas those who do will enthusiastically turn out in droves.
I hope I am wrong. I would like to see a Tory wipe out, not because I am anti Tory (I would have been just as happy to see it happen to Labour under similar circumstances), but because I would like to see a realignment of our politics rather than the same old same old.3 -
I just took it and was told I'll die at 73 years old. I thought that's probably because I said I drink daily, so I retried with twice a week but that only got me up to 78. (In reality I drink 4 days a week on average).OldKingCole said:
I’m dead already, apparently, and have been for a dozen years!OnlyLivingBoy said:
PB?JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!
Then I changed my outlook from neutral to optimistic and it catapulted me to 93. Still below the average for my BMI. How to get to that average of 100? Choosing Denmark as my home country added another 2 years. Undergoing a sex change got me to 97. But apparently drinking only 2-4 times per month was the key. Bummer.1 -
Nelson’s Patent Bridge For Boarding First Rates.Nigelb said:
Three to one also being the odds faced at his first great victory.eek said:From twitter (https://twitter.com/daveguitarjones/status/1764377243629838428)
Lord Nelson was 5ft 6in.
His statue is 17ft 4in.
That’s Horatio of 3:1.
https://warontherocks.com/2017/02/the-emergence-of-horatio-nelson-lessons-for-leaders/
...After his ship had sustained heavy damage from the fire of not less than five enemy vessels, Nelson ordered Captain to be crashed alongside the nearest, the San Nicolás, and personally led the boarding parties — the first British flag officer to do so since the 16th century — with a cry of “Westminster Abbey or glorious victory!”..0 -
Blimey - it reckons I'll make it to 90. I'd not budgeted for that.OldKingCole said:
I’m dead already, apparently, and have been for a dozen years!OnlyLivingBoy said:
PB?JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!0 -
Next you'll be telling me they were all marching against the Minneapolis PD four years ago.another_richard said:
Perhaps climate change is no longer fashionable.Pulpstar said:I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?
Gaza is.0 -
"If youth only knew: if age only could." - Henri Estienne, later compressed to "If youth knew, if age could" by others.Casino_Royale said:...It'd be nice to rerun my twenties now, with all the money and confidence I have now. And, yes, the women - amazing...
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One aspect of that is that executive earnings have grown too rapidly compared to those of employees, or indeed shareholders.viewcode said:
Quote from that interviewviewcode said:"“Are they stupid?!” – Liz Truss economics explained", Gary Stevenson interview, New Statesman, Oct 17, 2022, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcLw8cT5Lgs
"...if you want to improve the economy really seriously you have to stop wealth inequality from increasing or at least make it decrease. You know from the way I see it this wealth inequality is growing really rapidly and it's a cancer in the economy. You can do whatever you like but if you don't fix that cancer we're for a bad time. When I look at Labor's policies I don't see anything that is seriously going to bring wealth inequality down or even in fact stop it growing.
What I see as a party that will most likely decrease the rate at which wealth and equality is increasing so these guys are going to decrease the rate at which the cancer is growing. I mean it's better your cancer grow slowly than it grows quickly but if you don't stop it from growing then your future is going to be bad, right, so it was very difficult for me to be optimistic at this conference, because whilst I'm aware they will probably win I don't believe they're going to do anything serious about wealth inequality.
So I'm trying to talk to the people, because ultimately it is ordinary families that will be hurt by this and I want people to hold parties like Labour's feet to the fire and say "listen it's not enough that you make a few, like, tinkering around the edges, you need to do something serious. Measure what is happening with wealth inequality [and] create systems such that wealth flows out of super wealthy families and into ordinary families. And there's lots of different ways you could do that..."
It doesn't encourage productivity growth if too high a proportion of the resulting gains goes to those at the top rather than those whose productivity is actually increasing.1 -
The Rentacrowd industry is like any other. It can only attend to X number of things efficiently and logic or reason don't really enter into it. Nor do they have much interest in the boring task of actually making the world a better place.Pulpstar said:I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?
The stop oil brigade have no interest in the bad environmental record of totalitarian countries; the Gaza brigade have no interest in Sudan or eastern Congo or the Russian invasion of a peaceful neighbour.3 -
Less than 20% of levelling up projects completed in England, figures show
Exclusive: Plans either shelved or stalled despite forming part of flagship policy promise at last election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/03/fewer-than-20-levelling-up-projects-completed-england-figures
0 -
I would certainly make changes to my teens and twenties. Not my thirties which was my most active time in life. I wouldn't need the money I have now. Can't think how money would have made any changes to my life then. In fact it would have spoilt some of the fun of changing cars etc if I could have just got what I wanted, which I can now.Nigelb said:
You can't have it all - but I'm pretty sure I'd make better choices if I were to get the chance.Casino_Royale said:
It'd be nice to rerun my twenties now, with all the money and confidence I have now. And, yes, the women - amazing.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a Ricky Gervais routine about health where he points out that any extra years you live come at the end of your life, you don't get another decade of being in your twenties.JosiasJessop said:
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
Trouble is you'd probably be equally frustrated professionally. Very unlikely to get the top senior roles at that age, although not impossible. And also slightly at odds with having a very "good time".0 -
You can be sure that they'll never be marching against anything China, Russia or Iran have done.Pulpstar said:
Next you'll be telling me they were all marching against the Minneapolis PD four years ago.another_richard said:
Perhaps climate change is no longer fashionable.Pulpstar said:I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?
Gaza is.0 -
This focus by Goldman Sachs on making the slaves work harder is not necessarily reassuring. Government used to be about doing things for people, now it's about doing things to people.Nigelb said:Goldman Sachs did a cost/benefit analysis on the new obesity drugs, and reckonred a take up by 60 million obese individuals would add 1% to GDP.
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/22/weight-loss-drugs-economy-ozempic1 -
New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:280 -
Once again the political pygmies we've somehow elected have taken stupid risks to look 'well 'ard' to their mates, and now they're upset because they've got caught.DecrepiterJohnL said:German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/
This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.
One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.
Oops. Stay safe.1 -
On the first, the Government moved public health into local council responsibilities and local councils have no money because of central government cuts. Primary care also has an important role to play in encouraging people to take better care of their own health, and primary care needs better funding,another_richard said:
Its not just about how big the economy is or how much of that is spent on the NHS.DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
Its also how effectively that money is spent.
The NHS is a long way down the law of diminishing returns path,
Encouraging people to take better care of their own health and allowing assisted suicide are the ways forward.
The second won’t have any significant impact on health spending.1 -
One stood in Rochdale and threw confetti over Galloway.Pulpstar said:I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?0 -
But more being completed every day:Nigelb said:Less than 20% of levelling up projects completed in England, figures show
Exclusive: Plans either shelved or stalled despite forming part of flagship policy promise at last election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/03/fewer-than-20-levelling-up-projects-completed-england-figures
The figures unearthed by Shaw show that out of 973 towns fund projects, only 154 are due to have been completed by the end of February. By the end of November, that figure rises to 385, just 40% of the total.
Given the economic disruptions of recent years and the history of government infrastructure spending its probably a better than expected result.0 -
Winter. If you plan to glue yourself to the road, it's probably best not to choose a date when there could easily be frost or snow.Pulpstar said:I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?
2 -
More pertinently, it might persuade NICE and the government that it's worth funding widespread prescriptions - particularly as the UK is likely to negotiate a better price.viewcode said:
This focus by Goldman Sachs on making the slaves work harder is not necessarily reassuring. Government used to be about doing things for people, now it's about doing things to people.Nigelb said:Goldman Sachs did a cost/benefit analysis on the new obesity drugs, and reckonred a take up by 60 million obese individuals would add 1% to GDP.
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/22/weight-loss-drugs-economy-ozempic0 -
We're continually told that health spending is increasingly on sick oldies.bondegezou said:
On the first, the Government moved public health into local council responsibilities and local councils have no money because of central government cuts. Primary care also has an important role to play in encouraging people to take better care of their own health, and primary care needs better funding,another_richard said:
Its not just about how big the economy is or how much of that is spent on the NHS.DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
Its also how effectively that money is spent.
The NHS is a long way down the law of diminishing returns path,
Encouraging people to take better care of their own health and allowing assisted suicide are the ways forward.
The second won’t have any significant impact on health spending.
And public health is not just about spending money but getting people to take some responsibility for their own lifestyle choices.0 -
Fund it through extending VAT to cakes.Nigelb said:
More pertinently, it might persuade NICE and the government that it's worth funding widespread prescriptions - particularly as the UK is likely to negotiate a better price.viewcode said:
This focus by Goldman Sachs on making the slaves work harder is not necessarily reassuring. Government used to be about doing things for people, now it's about doing things to people.Nigelb said:Goldman Sachs did a cost/benefit analysis on the new obesity drugs, and reckonred a take up by 60 million obese individuals would add 1% to GDP.
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/22/weight-loss-drugs-economy-ozempic1 -
What is the magic method for making people take some responsibility for their lifestyle choices without spending any money to do it? I know how to do it with a budget. I don’t know how to do it with zero staff.another_richard said:
We're continually told that health spending is increasingly on sick oldies.bondegezou said:
On the first, the Government moved public health into local council responsibilities and local councils have no money because of central government cuts. Primary care also has an important role to play in encouraging people to take better care of their own health, and primary care needs better funding,another_richard said:
Its not just about how big the economy is or how much of that is spent on the NHS.DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
Its also how effectively that money is spent.
The NHS is a long way down the law of diminishing returns path,
Encouraging people to take better care of their own health and allowing assisted suicide are the ways forward.
The second won’t have any significant impact on health spending.
And public health is not just about spending money but getting people to take some responsibility for their own lifestyle choices.
Health spending is increasingly on “sick oldies”. I’m unclear what point you’re making.1 -
Isaac Asimov also predicted Leon.
https://twitter.com/PhysInHistory/status/1764493153011163327
Don't you believe in flying saucers, they ask me? Don't you believe in telepathy? — in ancient astronauts? — in the Bermuda triangle? — in life after death?
No, I reply. No, no, no, no, and again no.
One person recently, goaded into desperation by the litany of unrelieved negation, burst out "Don't you believe in anything?"
"Yes", I said. "I believe in evidence. I believe in observation, measurement, and reasoning, confirmed by independent observers. I'll believe anything, no matter how wild and ridiculous, if there is evidence for it. The wilder and more ridiculous something is, however, the firmer and more solid the evidence will have to be."4 -
Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/17645863222981060772 -
Sunak is now on a -54 rating, Starmer -26.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
Satisfaction with government, -73.
This Government is rapidly approaching that famous election winner, Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
It is far from impossible, in fact it is impossible unless the Northern Irish parties, PC and SNP all decide to merge with the Labour Party. Even if you only include England, a 100% Tory wipeout will mean some seats going to the LDs.Nigelb said:
The most interesting bit of Alastair's piece was this:JosiasJessop said:
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
...At the upper bound of what we can reasonably currently expect, we are looking at something close to a one party Parliament the like of which has not been seen before in Britain. I do not think that government, MPs, the media or the public have begun to absorb this. It’s about time that they did.
Unlikely, perhaps. But it's far from impossible.1 -
Massive Labour lead up 5% yetTimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
SKS’s rating as Labour leader has dropped, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, his worst score since becoming leader, and 29 per cent satisfied, a net score of -26, slighty above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.0 -
This is a larger Labour lead than under Tony Blair.bigjohnowls said:
Massive Labour lead up 5% yetTimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
SKS’s rating as Labour leader has dropped, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, his worst score since becoming leader, and 29 per cent satisfied, a net score of -26, slighty above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.0 -
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/17645863222981060770 -
Keir Starmer must be the luckiest Labour leader in history. One wonders how well he would be doing if the Tories had somebody like David Cameron leading them.Eabhal said:
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/17645863222981060770 -
Run that through Electoral Calculus with no adjustments, you end up with a Labour majority of 424.TimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
Just a bit of fun.0 -
I suspect that for every 2 votes the Tories steal from Reform, the policy required would shift 1 current Tory vote to Labour.Eabhal said:
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
And the result for Labour 50%, Con 26%, reform 2% looks little different to 47,20,82 -
Unhealthy lifestyle = back of the queue.bondegezou said:
What is the magic method for making people take some responsibility for their lifestyle choices without spending any money to do it? I know how to do it with a budget. I don’t know how to do it with zero staff.another_richard said:
We're continually told that health spending is increasingly on sick oldies.bondegezou said:
On the first, the Government moved public health into local council responsibilities and local councils have no money because of central government cuts. Primary care also has an important role to play in encouraging people to take better care of their own health, and primary care needs better funding,another_richard said:
Its not just about how big the economy is or how much of that is spent on the NHS.DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
Its also how effectively that money is spent.
The NHS is a long way down the law of diminishing returns path,
Encouraging people to take better care of their own health and allowing assisted suicide are the ways forward.
The second won’t have any significant impact on health spending.
And public health is not just about spending money but getting people to take some responsibility for their own lifestyle choices.
Health spending is increasingly on “sick oldies”. I’m unclear what point you’re making.
A stick to go with the carrot.
A healthy lifestyle doesn't need much explaining - eat and drink moderately, exercise regularly, no smoking.
And if the sick oldies have access to assisted suicide then they might not linger in suffering for months or years consuming health resources.0 -
Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.1
-
Is it, SKS is no Tony Blair though with a -26 ratingAverageNinja said:
This is a larger Labour lead than under Tony Blair.bigjohnowls said:
Massive Labour lead up 5% yetTimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
SKS’s rating as Labour leader has dropped, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, his worst score since becoming leader, and 29 per cent satisfied, a net score of -26, slighty above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.0 -
What odds the Conservatives have more seats in Scotland than England after the GE?Stuartinromford said:
Run that through Electoral Calculus with no adjustments, you end up with a Labour majority of 424.TimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
Just a bit of fun.0 -
All were supposed to have been done within three years.another_richard said:
But more being completed every day:Nigelb said:Less than 20% of levelling up projects completed in England, figures show
Exclusive: Plans either shelved or stalled despite forming part of flagship policy promise at last election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/03/fewer-than-20-levelling-up-projects-completed-england-figures
The figures unearthed by Shaw show that out of 973 towns fund projects, only 154 are due to have been completed by the end of February. By the end of November, that figure rises to 385, just 40% of the total.
Given the economic disruptions of recent years and the history of government infrastructure spending its probably a better than expected result.0 -
The narrative around the budget is developing and not necessarily to Hunt's advantage. If he goes out there on Wednesday faced with a media story line of tax cuts vs public services, and then delivers a tax cut funded by spending cuts next year, I think he's in real trouble.
That may not be fair - tax take has risen a lot in the last couple of years as a result of fiscal drag - but it's out there. And clearly public opinion at the moment is in favour of more investment for public services, however much Tory politicians may fret about bottomless pits and money-spaffing.
If I were Hunt I would cut my losses and aim for a sensible budget that does a few things to the tax system that consensus says are a "good idea". That means he can potentially do some fiscal loosening and cut the personal tax burden without the same political risk. For example unfreeze income tax thresholds. That potentially costs as much as dropping the headline rate. Do something about the child benefit taper at 50k. Unfreeze the VAT registration threshold (I think that one will happen, though our real problem there is the threshold is way too high). Yes reform the Non Dom regime but do so in a way that encourages international investment by replacing with a temporary incentive. Announce a consultation on reforming business rates. Reshuffle the stamp duty thresholds to get rid of those big cliff edges. And so on.
Hunt's brand, and that of Sunak such as it is, was all about quiet competence. A lot of that has been eroded but it's really all he's got left so why blow it with something that looks nakedly electioneering and won't go down well with the voters?0 -
Well Cameron isn't leading them and indeed has to take a fair amount of blame for lighting the blue touchpaper on the current skip fire.AverageNinja said:
Keir Starmer must be the luckiest Labour leader in history. One wonders how well he would be doing if the Tories had somebody like David Cameron leading them.Eabhal said:
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/17645863222981060772 -
bigjohnowls said:
Is it, SKS is no Tony Blair though with a -26 ratingAverageNinja said:
This is a larger Labour lead than under Tony Blair.bigjohnowls said:
Massive Labour lead up 5% yetTimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
SKS’s rating as Labour leader has dropped, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, his worst score since becoming leader, and 29 per cent satisfied, a net score of -26, slighty above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.Previous Conservative low points were 22 per cent under John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, 23 per cent in July 1997 when New Labour was settling into office under Tony Blair, and 23 per cent in December 2022 shortly after Rishi Sunak took over from Liz Truss’s brief and economically catastrophic administration.
I believe we still have maths in this country, so as 27 is larger than 23, then yes it is a larger Labour lead than under Tony Blair.
How many of these did famous election winner Jeremy Corbyn produce?0 -
Even more so considering how useless the Lib Dems are. They should really be polling on something like 15-20%.AverageNinja said:
Keir Starmer must be the luckiest Labour leader in history. One wonders how well he would be doing if the Tories had somebody like David Cameron leading them.Eabhal said:
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
(Starmer is attractive to Lib Dem sensibilities?)1 -
What is undeniable, is that SKS will also likely win an election being the most unpopular winner in recent times, not sure if he is yet more unpopular than Boris Johnson?0
-
Mmm, it says I'll live to 99 and a friend will live to 111! We are not taking it too seriously... It's interesting to play with the assumptions, though - diet and attitude (optimistic/pessimistic) trump things like BMI.kinabalu said:Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.
1 -
Raynergate kicking in.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
BJO fans please explain.
Etc.
Etc.0 -
And the fight for next Tory leader among the rump of 25 is between Barclay and Williamson.Stuartinromford said:
Run that through Electoral Calculus with no adjustments, you end up with a Labour majority of 424.TimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
Just a bit of fun.0 -
My feeling is this coming election will be the least presidential of any election since 1992. It will be party vs party, Labour (or more broadly "not-Tories") vs Conservative. Not Starmer vs Sunak.bigjohnowls said:
Massive Labour lead up 5% yetTimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
SKS’s rating as Labour leader has dropped, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, his worst score since becoming leader, and 29 per cent satisfied, a net score of -26, slighty above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.
People have decided that Sunak isn't sufficiently better or worse than his party to influence their vote. They are voting on the Tory record overall. They also seem to have decided Starmer is inoffensive enough but uninspiring, therefore not really a basis to vote for or against Labour. Likewise Davey. And certainly likewise Reform and Green where nobody knows who leads the Greens and few people have any strong opinion of Tice.0 -
Nick what are your thoughts on the next election outcome? How does it feel compared to 1997?NickPalmer said:
Mmm, it says I'll live to 99 and a friend will live to 111! We are not taking it too seriously... It's interesting to play with the assumptions, though - diet and attitude (optimistic/pessimistic) trump things like BMI.kinabalu said:Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.
0 -
Well for the opportunists among you there's a nice villa in the foothills above Villefranche next door to the villa of the late Tina Turner for sale.........;TheScreamingEagles said:
Michelle Mone in prison.Taz said:Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.
I wonder where this story ends.
https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61
Which coincidentally is another story I’ve long thought about.
No timewasters or dreamers please......
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-4681384/Michelle-Mone-puts-seven-bed-luxury-villa-sale.html0 -
Even better probably.AverageNinja said:
Keir Starmer must be the luckiest Labour leader in history. One wonders how well he would be doing if the Tories had somebody like David Cameron leading them.Eabhal said:
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
Not that it would make any material difference.
The Conservatives crippled themselves with the 'do as I say not as I do' covid hypocrisy and then crippled themselves again with Truss acting like a toddler pressing a row of buttons to see which lights turn on.
Then add in all the financial and sexual sleaze.
Finally the political ineptitude (being loud about things which have gone wrong and quiet about things which have gone right).
1 -
More unpopular now than Boris Johnson in December 2019.AverageNinja said:What is undeniable, is that SKS will also likely win an election being the most unpopular winner in recent times, not sure if he is yet more unpopular than Boris Johnson?
0 -
However one of the most important factor, your genes, is obviously missing, so pretty useless. As they say you can do something about everything else to lengthen your life, but you can't do anything about your genes which is one of if not the major factor.NickPalmer said:
Mmm, it says I'll live to 99 and a friend will live to 111! We are not taking it too seriously... It's interesting to play with the assumptions, though - diet and attitude (optimistic/pessimistic) trump things like BMI.kinabalu said:Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.
0 -
The precedent is set, then. But danger is ahead for him.TheScreamingEagles said:
More unpopular now than Boris Johnson in December 2019.AverageNinja said:What is undeniable, is that SKS will also likely win an election being the most unpopular winner in recent times, not sure if he is yet more unpopular than Boris Johnson?
0 -
I follow the Lib Dems' policy proposals and political commentary on places like TwiX. The content of almost everything the party says is pretty spot on. Unlike Starmer Davey was straight out pointing out the hypocrisy of Sunak's speech on Friday. During the Gaza vote debacle the party behaved impeccably and had the most sensible amendment. On the ground they have been relentless in going after the water companies over sewage. But nobody in the media bothers listening. You could say that's uselessness, but it's useless PR.Eabhal said:
Even more so considering how useless the Lib Dems are. They should really be polling on something like 15-20%.AverageNinja said:
Keir Starmer must be the luckiest Labour leader in history. One wonders how well he would be doing if the Tories had somebody like David Cameron leading them.Eabhal said:
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
(Starmer is attractive to Lib Dem sensibilities?)
Not to say the party doesn't have some bad policies: in particular its opportunistic local nimbyism which is sort of understandable but very annoying, and its fear of reopening the Brexit question but then Starmer is equally guilty of that one.6 -
SKS is on -26 despite LAB massive leadAnabobazina said:
Raynergate kicking in.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
BJO fans please explain.
Etc.
Etc.
SKS fans please explain0 -
Can I ask you a simple question: why as a Labour supporter do you back Tory Governments so often?bigjohnowls said:
SKS is on -26 despite LAB massive leadAnabobazina said:
Raynergate kicking in.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
BJO fans please explain.
Etc.
Etc.
SKS fans please explain0 -
If @MoonRabbit's prediction skills are on point - to be seen - this must be a suicide mission for Sunak to go in May.1
-
Easy - you compare the rating of SKS with Rishi and remember people will hold their nose and while voting for the least worst option (that can win).bigjohnowls said:
SKS is on -26 despite LAB massive leadAnabobazina said:
Raynergate kicking in.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
BJO fans please explain.
Etc.
Etc.
SKS fans please explain
No matter how bad SKS is people are looking at the current Government and going - Labour really can’t be any worse0 -
Satisfaction is perception minus expectations and all that. So that might actually benefit Sir Keir if he can surprise on the upside.AverageNinja said:What is undeniable, is that SKS will also likely win an election being the most unpopular winner in recent times, not sure if he is yet more unpopular than Boris Johnson?
0 -
This is FPTP acting the way it's meant to.TheScreamingEagles said:
More unpopular now than Boris Johnson in December 2019.AverageNinja said:What is undeniable, is that SKS will also likely win an election being the most unpopular winner in recent times, not sure if he is yet more unpopular than Boris Johnson?
We're always being told that FPTP is great because it lets the people get rid of governments they don't like.
And the people really really don't like this Conservative government. As long as the alternative is a bit less unpopular, nothing else matters.2 -
If their vote is reduced right down to the most loyal of 'always vote Con' loyalists it won't be much more than 20% and they'll be wiped out. I don't think it will happen but there's more chance of that imo than either hung parliament or Labour getting only a small majority. 125/150 is where I'd pitch it.eristdoof said:
It is far from impossible, in fact it is impossible unless the Northern Irish parties, PC and SNP all decide to merge with the Labour Party. Even if you only include England, a 100% Tory wipeout will mean some seats going to the LDs.Nigelb said:
The most interesting bit of Alastair's piece was this:JosiasJessop said:
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.JohnLilburne said:
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)Casino_Royale said:
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.Foxy said:An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
...At the upper bound of what we can reasonably currently expect, we are looking at something close to a one party Parliament the like of which has not been seen before in Britain. I do not think that government, MPs, the media or the public have begun to absorb this. It’s about time that they did.
Unlikely, perhaps. But it's far from impossible.0 -
That very much remains to be seen. He has poor approval ratings at the moment in the wake of the Rochdale debacle, which may fade, and some policy reversals that he would see as clearing the decks of vulnerable areas for the General Election.AverageNinja said:What is undeniable, is that SKS will also likely win an election being the most unpopular winner in recent times, not sure if he is yet more unpopular than Boris Johnson?
Will that continue to polling day? I'm not sure - my prediction is there will be a bit of a charm offensive by Labour in the campaign proper, and he'll probably be only slightly in deficit by polling day. But we'll see.
0 -
Going later and the Tories retaining 25 seats may look like a great resultAverageNinja said:If @MoonRabbit's prediction skills are on point - to be seen - this must be a suicide mission for Sunak to go in May.
1 -
Time to hold your fire until after he's elected. He could surprise us. He has a few things going for him. His background doesn't suggest a dilletante like Sunak or Johnson or even Blair and he was stronly pro EU right up untill the loonies took over the asylum.bigjohnowls said:
Is it, SKS is no Tony Blair though with a -26 ratingAverageNinja said:
This is a larger Labour lead than under Tony Blair.bigjohnowls said:
Massive Labour lead up 5% yetTimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
SKS’s rating as Labour leader has dropped, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, his worst score since becoming leader, and 29 per cent satisfied, a net score of -26, slighty above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.2 -
Interestingly if we had PR at the next election there would be a fairly straightforward path to a Labour-LibDem coalition with these numbers. They wouldn't need Green support.Stuartinromford said:
This is FPTP acting the way it's meant to.TheScreamingEagles said:
More unpopular now than Boris Johnson in December 2019.AverageNinja said:What is undeniable, is that SKS will also likely win an election being the most unpopular winner in recent times, not sure if he is yet more unpopular than Boris Johnson?
We're always being told that FPTP is great because it lets the people get rid of governments they don't like.
And the people really really don't like this Conservative government. As long as the alternative is a bit less unpopular, nothing else matters.
Of course under PR the reality would look different. Con would be even lower, Reform would be touching 20%, Greens probably at least 12-15% and Labour much lower.0 -
Polling averages, latest surveys. 13 pollsters, last calendar month:
Lab 43.9, Con 23.9
Lead edges up to exactly 20 points, but the Con level is now comfortably below 25.
Con would do rather worse at 44/24 than they would at 50/30, so the slide will be scaring Con even without much change in the gap.
0 -
Indeed, something that the Boris Johnson fanbois and fangirls seem not to wish to acknowledge but rather believe he was awesome in 2019.Stuartinromford said:
This is FPTP acting the way it's meant to.TheScreamingEagles said:
More unpopular now than Boris Johnson in December 2019.AverageNinja said:What is undeniable, is that SKS will also likely win an election being the most unpopular winner in recent times, not sure if he is yet more unpopular than Boris Johnson?
We're always being told that FPTP is great because it lets the people get rid of governments they don't like.
And the people really really don't like this Conservative government. As long as the alternative is a bit less unpopular, nothing else matters.0 -
eek said:
Going later and the Tories retaining 25 seats may look like a great resultAverageNinja said:If @MoonRabbit's prediction skills are on point - to be seen - this must be a suicide mission for Sunak to go in May.
Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
51m
Worse than Major. Worse than Truss. I'm sure doing exactly the same tax cut they did in November will fix it, though.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/17645853765119061480 -
We're ok now. I changed my drink answer from 'daily' to 'twice a week' and got myself an additional 21 years!Nigelb said:
It's an actuarial calculation which doesn't make much sense for a given individual.kinabalu said:Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.
Being negative about it will worsen your predicted outcome, anyway !
Thing is, the 'daily' is just my couple of tiny sherry glasses of red wine. It doesn't know that. Therefore in a sense me saying 'twice a week' is more accurate.
Phew.1 -
FWIW we live in a particular period in which it is not feasible for centrist democratic politicians in our bit of the world to be hugely popular. There is nothing for them to be popular about, and no simple programme to implement to engage a popular vision of the near future; (pace Matt Goodwin.)bigjohnowls said:
SKS is on -26 despite LAB massive leadAnabobazina said:
Raynergate kicking in.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
BJO fans please explain.
Etc.
Etc.
SKS fans please explain
Starmer knows all this, and will form the next government on the simple campaign of : Not Tory; not leftist, less incompetent possibly even a bit competent; social democrat; not corrupt; fiscally boring; reliable team. This is not the stuff of tickertape parades.3 -
I agree thats what people thinkeek said:
Easy - you compare the rating of SKS with Rishi and remember people will hold their nose and while voting for the least worst option (that can win).bigjohnowls said:
SKS is on -26 despite LAB massive leadAnabobazina said:
Raynergate kicking in.AverageNinja said:Feels like that 30 point lead by the next election may yet happen?
New Ipsos Mori poll has dropped…
🌹 Lab 47%
🌳 Con 20%
🔶LD 9%
🟦Reform 8%
🌍Green 7%
❗️Worst Tory score in any Ipsos Mori poll since records began in 1978
❗️Tories on single figures among under 35s
(Feb 21-28)
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1764586322298106077
BJO fans please explain.
Etc.
Etc.
SKS fans please explain
No matter how bad SKS is people are looking at the current Government and going - Labour really can’t be any worse
They dont see that Wes Streeting is worse for the NHS than whoever is the SoS for health now
They dont see austerity Reeves offers no change except for deeper austerity
They will see very shortly after 2024 GE0 -
1
-
Just because you are old and sick doesn’t mean you want to commit suicide. That’s a preposterous suggestion! Quite a few regular posters here are old and sick: do you think they should all kill themselves? You are being ridiculous.another_richard said:
Unhealthy lifestyle = back of the queue.bondegezou said:
What is the magic method for making people take some responsibility for their lifestyle choices without spending any money to do it? I know how to do it with a budget. I don’t know how to do it with zero staff.another_richard said:
We're continually told that health spending is increasingly on sick oldies.bondegezou said:
On the first, the Government moved public health into local council responsibilities and local councils have no money because of central government cuts. Primary care also has an important role to play in encouraging people to take better care of their own health, and primary care needs better funding,another_richard said:
Its not just about how big the economy is or how much of that is spent on the NHS.DavidL said:It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
Its also how effectively that money is spent.
The NHS is a long way down the law of diminishing returns path,
Encouraging people to take better care of their own health and allowing assisted suicide are the ways forward.
The second won’t have any significant impact on health spending.
And public health is not just about spending money but getting people to take some responsibility for their own lifestyle choices.
Health spending is increasingly on “sick oldies”. I’m unclear what point you’re making.
A stick to go with the carrot.
A healthy lifestyle doesn't need much explaining - eat and drink moderately, exercise regularly, no smoking.
And if the sick oldies have access to assisted suicide then they might not linger in suffering for months or years consuming health resources.0 -
.
It's strange to think John Lamont MP for Berwickshire etc could be the last MP left standing in a Tory wipeout.Eabhal said:
What odds the Conservatives have more seats in Scotland than England after the GE?Stuartinromford said:
Run that through Electoral Calculus with no adjustments, you end up with a Labour majority of 424.TimS said:New Ipsos poll, lowest ever Tory VI (lower than under Truss).
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1764575984970297778?s=20
Note Ipsos usually have lower scores for Ref so that's a big increase. The Green score looks a bit of a high outlier. Lab vs LD looks a bit generous to Lab too.
Seems the Tories are incapable of sinking below 20% though. Several recent nadir polls have had them on 20.
LLG:RefCon 64:28
Just a bit of fun.0 -
Being positive rather than neutral gives me an additional 25 years!kinabalu said:
We're ok now. I changed my drink answer from 'daily' to 'twice a week' and got myself an additional 21 years!Nigelb said:
It's an actuarial calculation which doesn't make much sense for a given individual.kinabalu said:Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.
Being negative about it will worsen your predicted outcome, anyway !
Thing is, the 'daily' is just my couple of tiny sherry glasses of red wine. It doesn't know that. Therefore in a sense me saying 'twice a week' is more accurate.
Phew.
Damn this government, making us all so negative
Still, it will help address rising care and pension costs, I guess. 1 -
Did he say he was a no-go candidate?Scott_xP said:@christopherhope
Ex-London minister Paul Scully to quit as Tory MP before general election1
