Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
He also promotes the 'theory' that HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Anyone know if he really believes this shit, or is he just a scammer?
It's probably not about the facts but about his identity and getting attention.
Thus rebutting with facts won't work: you'll just reinforce the conspiracy.
I have several friends who are more or less antivax, and like you say, trying to point them in the direction of facts is a waste of time. But undermining their faith in their antivax sources might not be. People I know might be convinced that MMR causes autism, but the idea that HIV doesn't cause AIDS seems to be a step too far.
Maybe it's a generational thing - people like me who were teenagers in the 80s we took it very seriously. Don't die of ignorance! We'd sleep around, but never have unprotected sex. At least not until we were some way into a committed relationship and both had negative HIV tests.
I say things like 'I had a look at that article you pointed me too, it was pretty interesting. I definitely agree we can't trust the big pharmaceutical companies, but are you sure you can trust that website? I found stuff on there saying AIDS isn't caused by HIV...'
I was and still am terrified by HIV and AIDS.
What you absorb between the ages of 8-16 years old can shape you for life.
Sadly it appears that the younger generations aren’t getting the same message. Among those who are under 30 and sexually active, STDs have risen sharply in the last decade.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Given you still have not apologised for shilling for Putin over MH17, I take your assertion that "...scientists who released Covid into the world" with an ocean of salt.
You are a fool, who believes any old sh*t he reads on the Internet if it is 'alternative'.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
Something similar on the other side of the Thames.
And those areas (Havering on the Essex side, Bromley/Bexley on the Kent side) are the bits of London that are most prone to getting cross at being lumped in with London. And where most of the residual Conservative popularity is.
Wonder how the mechanism works?
Relatively large numbers of older WWC voters. Often moved to outer London from inner London, coinciding with immigration inflows to those areas. No longer recognise their old neighbourhoods. Fearful as they see established immigrant communities making the same journey out of inner London to their new neighbourhoods. Think London has changed for the worse. The local economy no longer caters to their tastes or needs. They feel patronised by middle class incomers. There's no affordable or social housing for their kids, who've moved to Essex and Kent. Sadiq Khan personifies everything they hate about modern London. Does this cover it?
It explains a lot of it, especially those who moved to (say) Romford to escape London and now find London reabsorbing them.
The curiosity is that it only really works like that in the eastern quadrant- say from the A12 to the A2. Some of that is that, it's always been the cheaper quadrant; Romford Garden Suburb was inspired by Hampstead but never took off in the same way. But the lack of a distant hinterland feels relevant as well.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Given you still have not apologised for shilling for Putin over MH17, I take your assertion that "...scientists who released Covid into the world" with an ocean of salt.
You are a fool, who believes any old sh*t he reads on the Internet if it is 'alternative'.
IIRC, Luckyguy still believes in Ukrainian bioweapon labs.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
Just is the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
The US has one of the lowest percentages of imports to GDP in the world. It's not bizarre for people to think that policies aimed at lowering the cost of energy would have more impact on prices than a tariff.
"Aimed at" Also a fine example of begging the question.
There's a reason that Trump is using the slogan "drill, baby, drill".
Hmm. An 8 month period from 3 years ago.
Presumably now that US oil production has continued to increase, it will benefit Biden.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
Something similar on the other side of the Thames.
And those areas (Havering on the Essex side, Bromley/Bexley on the Kent side) are the bits of London that are most prone to getting cross at being lumped in with London. And where most of the residual Conservative popularity is.
Wonder how the mechanism works?
Relatively large numbers of older WWC voters. Often moved to outer London from inner London, coinciding with immigration inflows to those areas. No longer recognise their old neighbourhoods. Fearful as they see established immigrant communities making the same journey out of inner London to their new neighbourhoods. Think London has changed for the worse. The local economy no longer caters to their tastes or needs. They feel patronised by middle class incomers. There's no affordable or social housing for their kids, who've moved to Essex and Kent. Sadiq Khan personifies everything they hate about modern London. Does this cover it?
It explains a lot of it, especially those who moved to (say) Romford to escape London and now find London reabsorbing them.
The curiosity is that it only really works like that in the eastern quadrant- say from the A12 to the A2. Some of that is that, it's always been the cheaper quadrant; Romford Garden Suburb was inspired by Hampstead but never took off in the same way. But the lack of a distant hinterland feels relevant as well.
Isn’t it as simple as understanding that West (the court) has always been posher than East (the docks), and the tone of London’s inner - and then outer - surburbs was set by the original city populations moving outwards?
Something S Korea has got weirdly wrong; its defamation laws. ( @ydoethur would probably be behind bars. Along with most of us on PB.)
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=369899 ..Seoul Law Group describes the law like this: "Defamation in Korea refers to any reputational damage inflicted on a person, even if the statements are true. Defamation laws are not only limited to living people but can also be about dead people. It is vital to know that being sued for defamation in Korea can lead to both civil and criminal liability. People charged with defamation can receive up to seven years in prison or pay a fine. If you are non-Korean, this might lead to deportation. The amount of defamation reports has increased over 40 percent since 2000, and so have the actual lawsuits and imprisonments."
Just take a moment to consider that. Even if you tell the truth about Korean history, about things that happened long ago, about people no longer living or even people living today, you can still be sued, imprisoned or kicked out of the country if people associated with them feel that you have said something that defames them in some way. Korean law and society have chosen to value one's reputation and image more than the truth of any matter. Representation is deemed more important than reality. And it upholds this difference with the full strength of the law...
Another is the ongoing effect of mortgage increases as people move off low rates to higher ones. Less high than at the peak, but still higher than a few years ago.
And empirically, Conservative ratings have been drifting down for the last 18 months or so. The "thank goodness the crazy necklace lady has gone" bounce has pretty much deflated, albeit as a slow puncture instead of a catastrophic explosion. It's possible that Rishi and Jeremy can turn that around, but only because anything is possible if it's a future event. The default has to be that the trend won't bend, doesn't it?
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
He also promotes the 'theory' that HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Anyone know if he really believes this shit, or is he just a scammer?
He's "done his research". He's sat by his PC and looked for things, and can find things that support his viewpoint. His sources are unimpeachable, his narrative clear, his facts are facts...
...but all the Google search algorithm did was note his interest and fed him things that supported it. In an infinitely large data space you can find facts to support any viewpoint, and it feeds it to you...
He believes everything he says because he thinks it's true. He thinks it's true because he found it on Google. He "did his research".
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
Something similar on the other side of the Thames.
And those areas (Havering on the Essex side, Bromley/Bexley on the Kent side) are the bits of London that are most prone to getting cross at being lumped in with London. And where most of the residual Conservative popularity is.
Wonder how the mechanism works?
Relatively large numbers of older WWC voters. Often moved to outer London from inner London, coinciding with immigration inflows to those areas. No longer recognise their old neighbourhoods. Fearful as they see established immigrant communities making the same journey out of inner London to their new neighbourhoods. Think London has changed for the worse. The local economy no longer caters to their tastes or needs. They feel patronised by middle class incomers. There's no affordable or social housing for their kids, who've moved to Essex and Kent. Sadiq Khan personifies everything they hate about modern London. Does this cover it?
It explains a lot of it, especially those who moved to (say) Romford to escape London and now find London reabsorbing them.
The curiosity is that it only really works like that in the eastern quadrant- say from the A12 to the A2. Some of that is that, it's always been the cheaper quadrant; Romford Garden Suburb was inspired by Hampstead but never took off in the same way. But the lack of a distant hinterland feels relevant as well.
Isn’t it as simple as understanding that West (the court) has always been posher than East (the docks), and the tone of London’s inner - and then outer - surburbs was set by the original city populations moving outwards?
There’s the SW/NE pattern based on prevailing winds that you see everywhere in Britain (elsewhere it changes depending on the prevailing wind eg around Lyon North is posher and South more industrial.
But there’s this interesting distinction between propensity to Labour and propensity to Lib Dem which is what we’re trying to unpick here, and I think migratory patterns explain some of this. Both North and West London are economically similar but the West (or specifically South West) and its commuter belt is more Lib Dem.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
It is, I had a friend also fall down the antivax rabbit hole which leads to other conspiracy theories. Like Bridgen his kids were a distant thought in his mind.
I have a friend who refused to get her daughter vaccinated against measles. Regrets it bitterly now. Her daughter caught measles and almost lost her hearing completely. She has had to use a hearing aid since she was a kid.
In Germany it's now compulsory to get your children vaccinated against measles.
The irony is that measles - alongside very serious or even fatal effects in a minority of cases - also has the effect of destroying much immune memory. Thus wiping out a significant portion of the 'natural immunity' that vaccine sceptics rely on.
It's an interesting effect - get measles and lose your immunity to covid!
But it does also show that vaccinations can have unexpected medium-term effects that don't show up until after you've vaccinated lots of people and/or started specifically looking for them.
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
He also promotes the 'theory' that HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Anyone know if he really believes this shit, or is he just a scammer?
He's "done his research". He's sat by his PC and looked for things, and can find things that support his viewpoint. His sources are unimpeachable, his narrative clear, his facts are facts...
...but all the Google search algorithm did was not his interest and fed him things that supported it. In an infinitely large data space you can find facts to support any viewpoint, and it feeds it to you...
He believes everything he says because he thinks it's true. He thinks it's true because he found it on Google. He "did his research".
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
I keep reading at the longer Sunak waits, the worse it will be for Tory electoral prospects. Even “Montie” says so.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
No.
Only the trend.
An interesting counterfactual would be 'What if John Major had gone to the polls in May 1996?'
He's lose, no doubt about that, but would it be as bad? Could the Conservatives had retained 200 seats? Could they then have picked someone better than Hague (who was too young in 1997, and even more so in 1996)? Could they have found a way back, if not in '2000' but maybe '2004'?
It rarely helps to 'hang on'. Callaghan did it and lost. Major did it twice (1992 and 1997 were both at the death) and it's not obvious holding on into 1992 helped any really and 1997 was a shit storm and consigned the Conservatives to 13 years in opposition. Brown did it and lost. Cameron DIDN'T do it, as he set out the day after the election that the coalition would be going full term.
Usually, going 'normally' helps the party, but not the PM. Sunak could go for May, get the local councillors out to help, and play on improving weather, falling inflation and possibly base rates and go for a hung parliament..... but he won't. He'll hang on till October when the poor weather, rising inflation and hospitals are filling up again.... and then he'll be knackered.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
It is, I had a friend also fall down the antivax rabbit hole which leads to other conspiracy theories. Like Bridgen his kids were a distant thought in his mind.
I have a friend who refused to get her daughter vaccinated against measles. Regrets it bitterly now. Her daughter caught measles and almost lost her hearing completely. She has had to use a hearing aid since she was a kid.
In Germany it's now compulsory to get your children vaccinated against measles.
My late mother qualified as a pharmacist in 1929. Around the time of her 90th birthday she was asked whether pharmacy was better then than now. She told the questioner very firmly that after qualifying she’d worked in East London ‘and dozens of children died from diphtheria and the like. Of course it’s better now!”
I can't remember (!) if I told you I recently had the pleasure of cashing in my late father's life insurance policy - taken out by his mother with the Pru at 1d a week to pay for the infant funeral when he caught and maybe didn't survive scarlet fever or diphtheria or whatever bacterium was going around at about that time you mention. The Man from ther Pru did a fair amount of trade in such things. Took me a fair bit of work to share out amongst Granny's heirs, too - thank goodness for Paypal.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
You could always come here and see for yourself.
I was back in my old stomping grounds (London Fields) last summer and it was lovely. Not sure how representative E8 is though.
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
He also promotes the 'theory' that HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Anyone know if he really believes this shit, or is he just a scammer?
He's "done his research". He's sat by his PC and looked for things, and can find things that support his viewpoint. His sources are unimpeachable, his narrative clear, his facts are facts...
...but all the Google search algorithm did was not his interest and fed him things that supported it. In an infinitely large data space you can find facts to support any viewpoint, and it feeds it to you...
He believes everything he says because he thinks it's true. He thinks it's true because he found it on Google. He "did his research".
He's not a scammer. He's just a fucking idiot.
He can be both
Yes it can be a powerful motivation to belief, if the belief makes you lots of money and millions of admirers. But his willingness to promote HIV denialism makes me suspect he is actually insincere, though I haven't found any statement by him on chemtrails yet...
I keep reading at the longer Sunak waits, the worse it will be for Tory electoral prospects. Even “Montie” says so.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
'Evidence'? Well no - it's hard to produce evidence for what might happen in the future.
But there are good reasons why it might be so, as I posted yesterday: Advantages of May: - Avoids fall-out from the locals. - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge. - Energy prices will fall in April. - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips. - Boat numbers will be yet to rise. - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily). - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).
Advantages of Oct/Nov: - Something might turn up. - Sunak spends more time as PM.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
That's a good point, which I missed.
I'd want to know that the methodology is properly comparable, as I think we have a press release not the full report.
This, for example, raises questions:
Taken together, the cost of crime and the cost of investing in fighting crime results in a 10p ‘crime tax’ on every transaction that takes place in every store across the UK, up from 6p in the 2023 Crime Report.
If theft is up x5, and the cost of theft is up x1.67, what caused the average theft to fall by ~70% in value?
It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.
There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
I think the number one call on any increase in the NHS budget would be the salaries of doctors and nurses, not new services or extra capacity.
Yep - and I suspect the cost wouldn't be that great if the insane amount of money being spent on agency staff could be cut a bit...
You say expensive agency staff. Others welcome private sector staffing solutions.
Seems bizarre to pay for agency staff at 5-6 times what you pay your own staff, rather than making it more attractive and training a lot more people to work for you. You get 50% max of eth productivity if you are lucky as they just flit from post to post and hav eno history or clue on patients. Crazy business model.
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
PB?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!
I’m dead already, apparently, and have been for a dozen years!
The key thing is not to say that you are pessimistic. It seems to take nearly ten years off your lifespan.
Interesting he refers to “no go gate”, him being the politician who claimed parts of London are no go areas. He is probably now regretting that.
I suspect there are a number of MPs who, based on some misapprehension of what their voters want or a desire to be in the good books of the leadership say things they don’t really believe and then kick themselves for.
I keep reading at the longer Sunak waits, the worse it will be for Tory electoral prospects. Even “Montie” says so.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
'Evidence'? Well no - it's hard to produce evidence for what might happen in the future.
But there are good reasons why it might be so, as I posted yesterday: Advantages of May: - Avoids fall-out from the locals. - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge. - Energy prices will fall in April. - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips. - Boat numbers will be yet to rise. - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily). - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).
Advantages of Oct/Nov: - Something might turn up. - Sunak spends more time as PM.
If I were Sunak I’d wait as long as possible. When the party’s knocking on 20% there’s far more upside than downside in waiting. It might not work, but it might.
There’s also the “safe to take the plunge” problem. People might be happier to vote for change if things are looking up economically, which they sort of are now. In fact the situation is ideal for Labour: economy fairly stable but could do with a boost, public services in a bad state.
If people feel financial fear again they might actually cling closer to the devil they know rather than risking a change.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
It depends. Because if you were 17-30yrs old, say, you could not have come to the very reasonable conclusion that you didn't want to take the vaccine because you would have been shut out of society.
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
I did it. I’ve got 1941 days left !!
I got 92 , so not bad at all. You will live to be 92 years, 2 months and 23 days old!
I note there don't seem to have been any Climate/Just stop Oil protests in the capital or anywhere else this year. Now I didn't always agree with their methods but why have the proponents of the action seem to have gone so quiet recently ?
Are there, I've just missed them ?
They are all Islamist extremists now, climate/oil is so last year.
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
I did it. I’ve got 1941 days left !!
I got 92 , so not bad at all. You will live to be 92 years, 2 months and 23 days old!
Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.
I have three years left...
That's not great (unless you're already 97) but don't worry you just need to fiddle with it like I did. Put yourself as 'positive' and a moderate drinker and you'll be rewarded with another quarter century. Then I did a bit more fiddling since it had me dying in October which I don't want. Eventually, by iteration, I got a death date I'm happy with. Well, as happy as you can be.
If I change my outlook to positive I will be 108 before I croak.
Rather than a Portillo moment, are we going to see a Portillo highlights reel ?
Chatting with someone on our street last week, bearing in mind I live in an LD/Tory marginal. Family of four, both good jobs (pharmacist, and something business-ey that requires an MBA), nice house, two quality cars on the drive - and their mortgage renewal has just kicked in, creating (his words) a huge impact on their quality of life.
Really can't underestimate the financial burden that has been placed on hundreds of thousands of families by this government. The disillusionment with the Conservatives on what ought to be their defining feature is real, founded on financial realities and lived experience and potentially generation-defining for the party. Sunak can disown the Truss legacy as much as he wants, it means nothing in the eyes of voters who are hundreds of pounds worse off every month.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
It depends. Because if you were 17-30yrs old, say, you could not have come to the very reasonable conclusion that you didn't want to take the vaccine because you would have been shut out of society.
I happily had 4 jabs but avoided the booster at the end of last year on the grounds that my 2nd dose of Covid had been entirely trivial and it wasn't worth taking any sort of risk to protect myself from a sore throat and a bit of a sniffle. And true to form, my 3rd dose of Covid was like a cold, only not so bad.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Polio is caused by the poliovirus. We’ve known this for over a century.
Scientists did not release COVID-19. It jumped into humans via a zoonotic event. All the evidence points to this.
RFKjr. is a loon. Anti-vax is a hugely damaging conspiracy theory. There’s currently a serious measles outbreak in the UK because of this nonsense.
I don't think that you believe the second paragraph. That makes it not an error but a purposeful deception, and I see no point in continuing a discussion on those terms.
Labour will respond to the Budget by posing its version of the “Reagan question”: Are you better off than you were 14 years ago?
Polling shows 62% of voters believe life has got worse since 2010.
Two things that can really win for them (and other opposition) when it comes to actual votes.
1. This question - because most people will answer no unless they’re retired, and 2. A national equivalent of pointing at potholes and tutting. Because everyone thinks the country’s public infrastructure is crumbling
In terms of bang for buck with voters I wonder if prioritising more funding for local government might be a good idea for an incoming administration. Not as a manifesto pledge necessarily but as an actual action after the election. Much of the more visible part of the public realm is the responsibility of local authorities, and the amount we spend at LA level has shrunk from already very internationally low levels.
I keep reading at the longer Sunak waits, the worse it will be for Tory electoral prospects. Even “Montie” says so.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
'Evidence'? Well no - it's hard to produce evidence for what might happen in the future.
But there are good reasons why it might be so, as I posted yesterday: Advantages of May: - Avoids fall-out from the locals. - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge. - Energy prices will fall in April. - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips. - Boat numbers will be yet to rise. - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily). - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).
Advantages of Oct/Nov: - Something might turn up. - Sunak spends more time as PM.
It's mainly 'helpful' Labour fans dispensing this wisdom about May for the benefit of their hated opponents. Wonder why.
Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.
I have three years left...
That's not great (unless you're already 97) but don't worry you just need to fiddle with it like I did. Put yourself as 'positive' and a moderate drinker and you'll be rewarded with another quarter century. Then I did a bit more fiddling since it had me dying in October which I don't want. Eventually, by iteration, I got a death date I'm happy with. Well, as happy as you can be.
If I change my outlook to positive I will be 108 before I croak.
Rather than a Portillo moment, are we going to see a Portillo highlights reel ?
Chatting with someone on our street last week, bearing in mind I live in an LD/Tory marginal. Family of four, both good jobs (pharmacist, and something business-ey that requires an MBA), nice house, two quality cars on the drive - and their mortgage renewal has just kicked in, creating (his words) a huge impact on their quality of life.
Really can't underestimate the financial burden that has been placed on hundreds of thousands of families by this government. The disillusionment with the Conservatives on what ought to be their defining feature is real, founded on financial realities and lived experience and potentially generation-defining for the party. Sunak can disown the Truss legacy as much as he wants, it means nothing in the eyes of voters who are hundreds of pounds worse off every month.
To be scrupulously fair, the moron premium has come down since the Truss disaster. Probably 0.25% at most.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Polio is caused by the poliovirus. We’ve known this for over a century.
Scientists did not release COVID-19. It jumped into humans via a zoonotic event. All the evidence points to this.
RFKjr. is a loon. Anti-vax is a hugely damaging conspiracy theory. There’s currently a serious measles outbreak in the UK because of this nonsense.
I don't think that you believe the second paragraph. That makes it not an error but a purposeful deception, and I see no point in continuing a discussion on those terms.
I know nothing about Polio as I mentioned.
Surely it shouldn't take too long to form an opinion on whether polio is caused by a virus?
I keep reading at the longer Sunak waits, the worse it will be for Tory electoral prospects. Even “Montie” says so.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
'Evidence'? Well no - it's hard to produce evidence for what might happen in the future.
But there are good reasons why it might be so, as I posted yesterday: Advantages of May: - Avoids fall-out from the locals. - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge. - Energy prices will fall in April. - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips. - Boat numbers will be yet to rise. - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily). - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).
Advantages of Oct/Nov: - Something might turn up. - Sunak spends more time as PM.
It's mainly 'helpful' Labour fans dispensing this wisdom about May for the benefit of their hated opponents. Wonder why.
I don't think there is *any* good time, so the last 'advantage' on that list is probably the clincher for RS.
On a better note, I am on hold waiting for LV (UK) and it is best practice hold management. I am ninth in the queue, and the wait is only about 15 minutes.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Polio is caused by the poliovirus. We’ve known this for over a century.
Scientists did not release COVID-19. It jumped into humans via a zoonotic event. All the evidence points to this.
RFKjr. is a loon. Anti-vax is a hugely damaging conspiracy theory. There’s currently a serious measles outbreak in the UK because of this nonsense.
I don't think that you believe the second paragraph. That makes it not an error but a purposeful deception, and I see no point in continuing a discussion on those terms.
I know nothing about Polio as I mentioned.
Surely it shouldn't take too long to form an opinion on whether polio is caused by a virus?
I am sure that the posts from our members here in response are correct - I don't have any support or axe to grind about RFK Junior; he seems like a crank.
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
In the UK, such a ticket wouldn't be affordable even if you remortgaged your house.
Which is ironic because much of our railway is owned and run by Deutsche Bahn: Arriva, freight and even the royal train.
BahnCard 100 is 4550 euros 2nd class or 7714 euros 1st class for a year, apparently.
Alternatively you could get a Deutschland-Ticket for 49 euros (or less) a month, which gets you onto (almost) all public transport except intercity trains (Bahncard 100 includes the Deutschland-Ticket).
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
You could always come here and see for yourself.
I was back in my old stomping grounds (London Fields) last summer and it was lovely. Not sure how representative E8 is though.
Why then do you find it "incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole"?
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
You could always come here and see for yourself.
I was back in my old stomping grounds (London Fields) last summer and it was lovely. Not sure how representative E8 is though.
Why then do you find it "incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole"?
Because of the unending misery on here, and in the news I read in such filthy rags as (checks notes), the FT.
My original post was an article claiming that shoplifting has increased 500% in 12 months.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
You could always come here and see for yourself.
I was back in my old stomping grounds (London Fields) last summer and it was lovely. Not sure how representative E8 is though.
Why then do you find it "incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole"?
Because of the unending misery on here, and in the news I read in such filthy rags as (checks notes), the FT.
My original post was an article claiming that shoplifting has increased 500% in 12 months.
The US is lucky to have you. Enjoy your journey (if you're not back there already).
That 20% from Ipsos is the third 20% polled in the last few weeks, from memory. When outliers keep happening they stop being outliers, I guess.
If the trend cements there will come a point when, probably correctly, Tory rebels will reason that it is still worth deposing Sunak, because the electoral hit from doing so will be pretty minimal.
Last night I watched the Simpsons episode, “Mr Lisa Goes to Washington”, first aired in 1991. It’s the one where Lisa wins a patriotic speech competition and then foils a corrupt congressman.
Having lived through the actual period, it’s kind of fascinating to consider the changes with today.
- Both air travel and staying in a hotel are represented as slightly exotic luxuries.
- There are only two female congressmen.
- American democracy is still considered something to believe in.
I keep reading at the longer Sunak waits, the worse it will be for Tory electoral prospects. Even “Montie” says so.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
The evidence is "everything Richi says" and "everything Richi does"
Chessboards, compulsory maths to 18, and cancelling investment in the North. The great Sunakian dream.
Chessboards, with no pieces...
If anything symbolises the man's vision for the Country
Now there’s an idea. How about announcing the creation of thousands of new tennis courts and football pitches across the country. Without nets, goals or line markings. A very cost effective way to get our country exercising more.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?
Good decision in hindsight I would say , though I took 3. 3rd one caused my wife issues with atrial fibrilation for a time so be no more for sure.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?
No one else admits to it, so as not to appear as heinous as a fart in a spacesuit?
That 20% from Ipsos is the third 20% polled in the last few weeks, from memory. When outliers keep happening they stop being outliers, I guess.
If the trend cements there will come a point when, probably correctly, Tory rebels will reason that it is still worth deposing Sunak, because the electoral hit from doing so will be pretty minimal.
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
PB?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!
I’m dead already, apparently, and have been for a dozen years!
The key thing is not to say that you are pessimistic. It seems to take nearly ten years off your lifespan.
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to maintain an optimistic outlook! I’m hoping to see another ‘Portillo moment’ though!
I keep reading at the longer Sunak waits, the worse it will be for Tory electoral prospects. Even “Montie” says so.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
The evidence is "everything Richi says" and "everything Richi does"
Chessboards, compulsory maths to 18, and cancelling investment in the North. The great Sunakian dream.
Chessboards, with no pieces...
If anything symbolises the man's vision for the Country
Now there’s an idea. How about announcing the creation of thousands of new tennis courts and football pitches across the country. Without nets, goals or line markings. A very cost effective way to get our country exercising more.
A patch of grass that can be either a football pitch, or a tennis court, depending on where you put a pile of jumpers...
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
I did it. I’ve got 1941 days left !!
I got 92 , so not bad at all. You will live to be 92 years, 2 months and 23 days old!
That must be because you clicked on “optimistic”
Yes if you pick 'pessimistic' you get a date that's telling you to start putting your affairs in order.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
You could always come here and see for yourself.
I was back in my old stomping grounds (London Fields) last summer and it was lovely. Not sure how representative E8 is though.
Why then do you find it "incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole"?
Because of the unending misery on here, and in the news I read in such filthy rags as (checks notes), the FT.
My original post was an article claiming that shoplifting has increased 500% in 12 months.
People moan and whinge; it's a staple of people everywhere. You could let some people live in a gilded palace with an unlimited income and a score of servants, and after a few months they'd be complaining about it being too sunny outside.
IMV whilst things are slightly worse than they were a few years ago, they're not massively worse. What we've lost is optimism and confidence. We *can* do, and be, better. Hopefully the next government will change that.
Paul Scully warns the Conservative party not to drift to the right.
“We can work with the bell curve or become the bell-ends” 😳
Scully's not a bad lad, I saw him in an interview with Maitlis/Sopel partly apologising for his no go remarks. He's not the most articulate, rather nervy and garbled, but does come across as quite human (cf.other Tories.)
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
I keep reading at the longer Sunak waits, the worse it will be for Tory electoral prospects. Even “Montie” says so.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
'Evidence'? Well no - it's hard to produce evidence for what might happen in the future.
But there are good reasons why it might be so, as I posted yesterday: Advantages of May: - Avoids fall-out from the locals. - Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge. - Energy prices will fall in April. - Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips. - Boat numbers will be yet to rise. - Inflation probably back at target (temporarily). - Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).
Advantages of Oct/Nov: - Something might turn up. - Sunak spends more time as PM.
It's mainly 'helpful' Labour fans dispensing this wisdom about May for the benefit of their hated opponents. Wonder why.
And the advantages of January are? As opposed to Oct/Nov.
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
I did it. I’ve got 1941 days left !!
I got 92 , so not bad at all. You will live to be 92 years, 2 months and 23 days old!
That must be because you clicked on “optimistic”
Yes if you pick 'pessimistic' you get a date that's telling you to start putting your affairs in order.
If you click on 'pessimistic' and 'bad diet' you get a message saying 'too late'.
93 years for me - I'd be happy with that so long as I say healthy and sane.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
That's a good point, which I missed.
I'd want to know that the methodology is properly comparable, as I think we have a press release not the full report.
This, for example, raises questions:
Taken together, the cost of crime and the cost of investing in fighting crime results in a 10p ‘crime tax’ on every transaction that takes place in every store across the UK, up from 6p in the 2023 Crime Report.
If theft is up x5, and the cost of theft is up x1.67, what caused the average theft to fall by ~70% in value?
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?
Good decision in hindsight I would say , though I took 3. 3rd one caused my wife issues with atrial fibrilation for a time so be no more for sure.
First one and its part deux for me. Oxford. No ill effects, but no good reason to go back for more either. I have seen no indication (of course there wouldn't be evidence anyway) that people chock full of the jab have any less of a bad time with Covid.
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
I did it. I’ve got 1941 days left !!
I got 92 , so not bad at all. You will live to be 92 years, 2 months and 23 days old!
That must be because you clicked on “optimistic”
Yes if you pick 'pessimistic' you get a date that's telling you to start putting your affairs in order.
Good afternoon
I have another 4 years according to the death clock (84) but as, according to my cardiologist, I was looking at less than 6 months before my pacemaker I think that is a good bonus which I hope to exceed
Rishi should go in May for all the reasons stated. I do think the Tories are in pre-defeat inertia though, and as a result it seems to me that he will hold off until late autumn. They’ve given up. Going for May requires a conscious, active, decisive stand of the sort I’m not sure they have in them anymore.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?
Good decision in hindsight I would say , though I took 3. 3rd one caused my wife issues with atrial fibrilation for a time so be no more for sure.
First one and its part deux for me. Oxford. No ill effects, but no good reason to go back for more either. I have seen no indication (of course there wouldn't be evidence anyway) that people chock full of the jab have any less of a bad time with Covid.
Well I'm chock full of the jab have still never had Covid. Whether these are connected or whether something genetic is going on I guess I'll never know.
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
PB?
98 for me, which is a bit alarming. I'm less than half way!
I’m dead already, apparently, and have been for a dozen years!
The key thing is not to say that you are pessimistic. It seems to take nearly ten years off your lifespan.
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to maintain an optimistic outlook! I’m hoping to see another ‘Portillo moment’ though!
Switching from 'optimistic' (which I think I am) to 'pessimistic' took 21 years off my life. I wonder whether there are any studies to back up the influence of optimism/pessimism in this calculation?
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
I did it. I’ve got 1941 days left !!
I got 92 , so not bad at all. You will live to be 92 years, 2 months and 23 days old!
My result means my bucket list could fit in an eggcup!
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Polio is caused by the poliovirus. We’ve known this for over a century.
Scientists did not release COVID-19. It jumped into humans via a zoonotic event. All the evidence points to this.
RFKjr. is a loon. Anti-vax is a hugely damaging conspiracy theory. There’s currently a serious measles outbreak in the UK because of this nonsense.
I don't think that you believe the second paragraph. That makes it not an error but a purposeful deception, and I see no point in continuing a discussion on those terms.
I know nothing about Polio as I mentioned.
How have you acquired this magical ability to read my mind?
Quick test: what am I thinking now?
Yes, you're right! I am thinking, "Gosh, Luckyguy1983 has completely fallen down a conspiracy theory rabbit hole. What a nutter!"
Rishi should go in May for all the reasons stated. I do think the Tories are in pre-defeat inertia though, and as a result it seems to me that he will hold off until late autumn. They’ve given up. Going for May requires a conscious, active, decisive stand of the sort I’m not sure they have in them anymore.
I am in favour of May as we cannot continue in this vacuum
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
I did it. I’ve got 1941 days left !!
I got 92 , so not bad at all. You will live to be 92 years, 2 months and 23 days old!
That must be because you clicked on “optimistic”
Yes if you pick 'pessimistic' you get a date that's telling you to start putting your affairs in order.
Good afternoon
I have another 4 years according to the death clock (84) but as, according to my cardiologist, I was looking at less than 6 months before my pacemaker I think that is a good bonus which I hope to exceed
Can you exercise straight away with a pacemaker of do you have to take it easy for a while?
That 20% from Ipsos is the third 20% polled in the last few weeks, from memory. When outliers keep happening they stop being outliers, I guess.
If the trend cements there will come a point when, probably correctly, Tory rebels will reason that it is still worth deposing Sunak, because the electoral hit from doing so will be pretty minimal.
All of the Tory poll results have started with a 2 for some months. There were a couple of 19% shares in mid-November, and the last 30% in mid-October. The most recent 29% was mid-February.
So a positive reaction to the budget might produce a few 30+% poll shares, or some negative news 19% or lower. Or even just particularly large outliers.
I think it was the 30+% leads that did for Truss though. That and the turmoil in the financial markets. If the budget passes off without precipitating a Sterling crisis then Sunak will probably survive.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
You could always come here and see for yourself.
I was back in my old stomping grounds (London Fields) last summer and it was lovely. Not sure how representative E8 is though.
Why then do you find it "incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole"?
Because of the unending misery on here, and in the news I read in such filthy rags as (checks notes), the FT.
My original post was an article claiming that shoplifting has increased 500% in 12 months.
People moan and whinge; it's a staple of people everywhere. You could let some people live in a gilded palace with an unlimited income and a score of servants, and after a few months they'd be complaining about it being too sunny outside.
IMV whilst things are slightly worse than they were a few years ago, they're not massively worse. What we've lost is optimism and confidence. We *can* do, and be, better. Hopefully the next government will change that.
Despite Starmer.
things have gotten steadily worse and Labour will not change it, that is the difference , people don't see improvement any time soon. Since brexit it has been downhill all the way.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
You could always come here and see for yourself.
I was back in my old stomping grounds (London Fields) last summer and it was lovely. Not sure how representative E8 is though.
Why then do you find it "incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole"?
Because of the unending misery on here, and in the news I read in such filthy rags as (checks notes), the FT.
My original post was an article claiming that shoplifting has increased 500% in 12 months.
The US is lucky to have you. Enjoy your journey (if you're not back there already).
My journey to London was last summer (before a couple of weeks in France).
I’ll be back this summer for a wee bit.
The original idea was to come to New York for three years and “have an experience”. I’ve now done two years and career-wise my wife and I seem to have more opportunity here.
I’m torn, because I don’t really want to be American and I don’t want my kids to be American. But the UK seems like a pretty poor place to invest one’s life in right now.
I think the “three years” might become “five years”.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?
No one else admits to it, so as not to appear as heinous as a fart in a spacesuit?
My Brother (4 years younger than me) didn't have the Jab - he died at 69 not of Covid as far as we know.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?
Good decision in hindsight I would say , though I took 3. 3rd one caused my wife issues with atrial fibrilation for a time so be no more for sure.
First one and its part deux for me. Oxford. No ill effects, but no good reason to go back for more either. I have seen no indication (of course there wouldn't be evidence anyway) that people chock full of the jab have any less of a bad time with Covid.
It makes perfect logical sense to me that the vaccine would make your experience of Covid less severe than it might have been - you will after all have had a head start in building antibodies when you encountered Covid for real.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
I thought it was because they have been declared "do not prosecute if value under £200", and staff instructed not to intervene.
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
But why now. Why a fivefold increase in one year? Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
You could always come here and see for yourself.
I was back in my old stomping grounds (London Fields) last summer and it was lovely. Not sure how representative E8 is though.
Why then do you find it "incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole"?
Because of the unending misery on here, and in the news I read in such filthy rags as (checks notes), the FT.
My original post was an article claiming that shoplifting has increased 500% in 12 months.
People moan and whinge; it's a staple of people everywhere. You could let some people live in a gilded palace with an unlimited income and a score of servants, and after a few months they'd be complaining about it being too sunny outside.
IMV whilst things are slightly worse than they were a few years ago, they're not massively worse. What we've lost is optimism and confidence. We *can* do, and be, better. Hopefully the next government will change that.
Despite Starmer.
As always with this, different people have been affected in different ways. There’ll be plenty of people around who are better off financially than they were 5/10 years ago: there’s a lot of people out there who have managed to avoid the worst of the cost of living crisis. Plenty of people did very well out of Covid too.
Although this is linked to the economy, the greatest decline seems to be in the performance of public services. Our infrastructure continues to decay, GP services are undoubtedly worse, schools are crumbling. People do not trust our institutions in the way they once did. The fact that the Tories are obsessing with tax cuts in the middle of all this looks absolutely nuts. To the public at large, this feels like insanity when money needs to be spent fixing things. They are not on board the low taxes=higher growth train. Liz Truss killed off that particular argument from an electoral perspective for some time.
Comments
You are a fool, who believes any old sh*t he reads on the Internet if it is 'alternative'.
The curiosity is that it only really works like that in the eastern quadrant- say from the A12 to the A2. Some of that is that, it's always been the cheaper quadrant; Romford Garden Suburb was inspired by Hampstead but never took off in the same way. But the lack of a distant hinterland feels relevant as well.
Presumably now that US oil production has continued to increase, it will benefit Biden.
Something S Korea has got weirdly wrong; its defamation laws.
( @ydoethur would probably be behind bars. Along with most of us on PB.)
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=369899
..Seoul Law Group describes the law like this: "Defamation in Korea refers to any reputational damage inflicted on a person, even if the statements are true. Defamation laws are not only limited to living people but can also be about dead people. It is vital to know that being sued for defamation in Korea can lead to both civil and criminal liability. People charged with defamation can receive up to seven years in prison or pay a fine. If you are non-Korean, this might lead to deportation. The amount of defamation reports has increased over 40 percent since 2000, and so have the actual lawsuits and imprisonments."
Just take a moment to consider that. Even if you tell the truth about Korean history, about things that happened long ago, about people no longer living or even people living today, you can still be sued, imprisoned or kicked out of the country if people associated with them feel that you have said something that defames them in some way. Korean law and society have chosen to value one's reputation and image more than the truth of any matter. Representation is deemed more important than reality. And it upholds this difference with the full strength of the law...
One is the differential reaping by the Grim Reaper. With the current age profiles of party support, that's 900 or so votes net a day;
https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1763636226429513776
Another is the ongoing effect of mortgage increases as people move off low rates to higher ones. Less high than at the peak, but still higher than a few years ago.
And empirically, Conservative ratings have been drifting down for the last 18 months or so. The "thank goodness the crazy necklace lady has gone" bounce has pretty much deflated, albeit as a slow puncture instead of a catastrophic explosion. It's possible that Rishi and Jeremy can turn that around, but only because anything is possible if it's a future event. The default has to be that the trend won't bend, doesn't it?
When I asked my local small Co-op they said it was mainly druggies.
Later in the article (FT) it noted that violent crime has merely doubled.
It is incredibly hard maintaining an image of the UK as anything but a post-apocalyptic hellhole, (which is how I imagine most PBers regard the US).
...but all the Google search algorithm did was note his interest and fed him things that supported it. In an infinitely large data space you can find facts to support any viewpoint, and it feeds it to you...
He believes everything he says because he thinks it's true. He thinks it's true because he found it on Google. He "did his research".
He's not a scammer. He's just a fucking idiot.
But there’s this interesting distinction between propensity to Labour and propensity to Lib Dem which is what we’re trying to unpick here, and I think migratory patterns explain some of this. Both North and West London are economically similar but the West (or specifically South West) and its commuter belt is more Lib Dem.
But it does also show that vaccinations can have unexpected medium-term effects that don't show up until after you've vaccinated lots of people and/or started specifically looking for them.
He's lose, no doubt about that, but would it be as bad?
Could the Conservatives had retained 200 seats? Could they then have picked someone better than Hague (who was too young in 1997, and even more so in 1996)? Could they have found a way back, if not in '2000' but maybe '2004'?
It rarely helps to 'hang on'. Callaghan did it and lost. Major did it twice (1992 and 1997 were both at the death) and it's not obvious holding on into 1992 helped any really and 1997 was a shit storm and consigned the Conservatives to 13 years in opposition. Brown did it and lost. Cameron DIDN'T do it, as he set out the day after the election that the coalition would be going full term.
Usually, going 'normally' helps the party, but not the PM. Sunak could go for May, get the local councillors out to help, and play on improving weather, falling inflation and possibly base rates and go for a hung parliament..... but he won't. He'll hang on till October when the poor weather, rising inflation and hospitals are filling up again....
and then he'll be knackered.
But there are good reasons why it might be so, as I posted yesterday:
Advantages of May:
- Avoids fall-out from the locals.
- Forestalls any further major division or a leadership challenge.
- Energy prices will fall in April.
- Any tax cuts will have appeared in April payslips.
- Boat numbers will be yet to rise.
- Inflation probably back at target (temporarily).
- Mortgage rates falling and fewer will have switched to higher fixed rate (than will have by the autumn).
Advantages of Oct/Nov:
- Something might turn up.
- Sunak spends more time as PM.
I'd want to know that the methodology is properly comparable, as I think we have a press release not the full report.
This, for example, raises questions:
Taken together, the cost of crime and the cost of investing in fighting crime results in a 10p ‘crime tax’ on every transaction that takes place in every store across the UK, up from 6p in the 2023 Crime Report.
If theft is up x5, and the cost of theft is up x1.67, what caused the average theft to fall by ~70% in value?
Here's the 2023 report. I can't find the 2024 one at a quick search.
https://www.acs.org.uk/research/crime-report-2023
I suspect there are a number of MPs who, based on some misapprehension of what their voters want or a desire to be in the good books of the leadership say things they don’t really believe and then kick themselves for.
There’s also the “safe to take the plunge” problem. People might be happier to vote for change if things are looking up economically, which they sort of are now. In fact the situation is ideal for Labour: economy fairly stable but could do with a boost, public services in a bad state.
If people feel financial fear again they might actually cling closer to the devil they know rather than risking a change.
Paul Scully warns the Conservative party not to drift to the right.
“We can work with the bell curve or become the bell-ends” 😳
Really can't underestimate the financial burden that has been placed on hundreds of thousands of families by this government. The disillusionment with the Conservatives on what ought to be their defining feature is real, founded on financial realities and lived experience and potentially generation-defining for the party. Sunak can disown the Truss legacy as much as he wants, it means nothing in the eyes of voters who are hundreds of pounds worse off every month.
Labour will respond to the Budget by posing its version of the “Reagan question”: Are you better off than you were 14 years ago?
Polling shows 62% of voters believe life has got worse since 2010.
I know nothing about Polio as I mentioned.
1. This question - because most people will answer no unless they’re retired, and
2. A national equivalent of pointing at potholes and tutting. Because everyone thinks the country’s public infrastructure is crumbling
In terms of bang for buck with voters I wonder if prioritising more funding for local government might be a good idea for an incoming administration. Not as a manifesto pledge necessarily but as an actual action after the election. Much of the more visible part of the public realm is the responsibility of local authorities, and the amount we spend at LA level has shrunk from already very internationally low levels.
5th December I reckon.
And the music is inoffensive.
Alternatively you could get a Deutschland-Ticket for 49 euros (or less) a month, which gets you onto (almost) all public transport except intercity trains (Bahncard 100 includes the Deutschland-Ticket).
My original post was an article claiming that shoplifting has increased 500% in 12 months.
If anything symbolises the man's vision for the Country
If the trend cements there will come a point when, probably correctly, Tory rebels will reason that it is still worth deposing Sunak, because the electoral hit from doing so will be pretty minimal.
Having lived through the actual period, it’s kind of fascinating to consider the changes with today.
- Both air travel and staying in a hotel are represented as slightly exotic luxuries.
- There are only two female congressmen.
- American democracy is still considered something to believe in.
I’m hoping to see another ‘Portillo moment’ though!
We need a catchy name for it though.
Something short and snappy. Like dark...
IMV whilst things are slightly worse than they were a few years ago, they're not massively worse. What we've lost is optimism and confidence. We *can* do, and be, better. Hopefully the next government will change that.
Despite Starmer.
93 years for me - I'd be happy with that so long as I say healthy and sane.
Here's the link for anyone who wants to have a go: https://www.death-clock.org
Possibly a short-sighted policy though!
I have another 4 years according to the death clock (84) but as, according to my cardiologist, I was looking at less than 6 months before my pacemaker I think that is a good bonus which I hope to exceed
Switching from 'optimistic' (which I think I am) to 'pessimistic' took 21 years off my life. I wonder whether there are any studies to back up the influence of optimism/pessimism in this calculation?
Quick test: what am I thinking now?
Yes, you're right! I am thinking, "Gosh, Luckyguy1983 has completely fallen down a conspiracy theory rabbit hole. What a nutter!"
So a positive reaction to the budget might produce a few 30+% poll shares, or some negative news 19% or lower. Or even just particularly large outliers.
I think it was the 30+% leads that did for Truss though. That and the turmoil in the financial markets. If the budget passes off without precipitating a Sterling crisis then Sunak will probably survive.
I’ll be back this summer for a wee bit.
The original idea was to come to New York for three years and “have an experience”. I’ve now done two years and career-wise my wife and I seem to have more opportunity here.
I’m torn, because I don’t really want to be American and I don’t want my kids to be American. But the UK seems like a pretty poor place to invest one’s life in right now.
I think the “three years” might become “five years”.
More interesting than any debate anyway.
One way ticket.
Although this is linked to the economy, the greatest decline seems to be in the performance of public services. Our infrastructure continues to decay, GP services are undoubtedly worse, schools are crumbling. People do not trust our institutions in the way they once did. The fact that the Tories are obsessing with tax cuts in the middle of all this looks absolutely nuts. To the public at large, this feels like insanity when money needs to be spent fixing things. They are not on board the low taxes=higher growth train. Liz Truss killed off that particular argument from an electoral perspective for some time.