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Some context for budget week – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited March 12 in General
Some context for budget week – politicalbetting.com

When @IpsosUK ask people what the most important issue facing the country is the NHS is now number one.Budget this week. Wonder how much we will hear about GP appointments / waiting lists?We talk about disconnect between political class & voters a lot. Feels big here. https://t.co/3QDqjLQdLp

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    Peter Oborne giving the right wing edia and most of our political establishment both barrels. The Americans with Truss perhaps the most chilling......

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrE2LeJqJHk
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    Second! Like Sunak, if he’s lucky
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    The risk for Labour is that they are seen to talk about Gaza to the exclusion of all of those. It's a trap they could so easily fall into.

    The risk for the Tories is that they just talk about tax cuts (whilst continuing to raise them overall anyway) and not deliver on the rest.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    Trump supporters target black voters with faked AI images
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68440150
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    OT just got my first TwiX follower. Since I've never tweeted, I shall assume this is part of some fake influencer or bot network.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,437
    I still reckon this could be the week that kicks off the GE.... I cant see how things get any better for Sunak
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,054
    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,090
    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,484

    OT just got my first TwiX follower. Since I've never tweeted, I shall assume this is part of some fake influencer or bot network.

    You’ll be amazed how many stunning, young, women in bikinis will be liking your posts.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,484

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It would be the same with the sainted rNHS if that wasn’t in the headlines, or any matter. Look how inflation has fallen.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,054

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,603
    FPT to an extent, on the conservative party shop, bit how about this gem:
    https://shop.conservatives.com/pop art framed print.html

    Pop art print of four iconic leaders: Disraeli, Churchill, Thatcher and... um... Sunak :lol:
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,603
    edited March 4
    Taz said:

    OT just got my first TwiX follower. Since I've never tweeted, I shall assume this is part of some fake influencer or bot network.

    You’ll be amazed how many stunning, young, women in bikinis will be liking your posts.
    Dammit, I thought it was just me and they were all genuinely interested in my latest papers and thoughts on epidemiology :disappointed:
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    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,395
    Hands up all those volunteering 🙋‍♀️ to drive aid trucks into Gaza..

    @drelidavid

    🚨 Breaking: “Innocent Palestinian civilians” killed the driver of an Egyptian humanitarian aid truck, and looted the truck 👇

    Barbarians...

    https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1764297717264597030

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    Hands up all those volunteering 🙋‍♀️ to drive aid trucks into Gaza..

    @drelidavid

    🚨 Breaking: “Innocent Palestinian civilians” killed the driver of an Egyptian humanitarian aid truck, and looted the truck 👇

    Barbarians...

    https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1764297717264597030

    When people get hungry and desperate, this can happen. And has happened before.

    A friend-of-a-friend who worked for Médecins Sans Frontières told some stories of how, after major catalysts, wars etc, the first in had to be very very careful. People would do stuff like drive without stopping and throwing aid off the truck. Or dumping it out of a hovering helicopter, out of reach.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    History repeating.

    Many, many times, secure communications systems have been made vulnerable by errors in operation. It is not well known, but some Enigma networks were never broken - discipline and good procedure protected them.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    Security requires both knowledge and effort. If you're an expert in a non-security field, you may not have the knowledge to be secure (though you should), or think the extra effort not worth it. "It gets in the way!" is a common comment.

    There should really be sackings over this; its effect in the information warspace alone is massive to Russia. Until people lose their jobs, they won't consider the effort worth it.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126
    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    It's pretty obvious. The GRU must have somebody inside the GAF. How else would they know to "hack" it? Somebody probably just gave them the password or whatever for money.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    edited March 4
    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    From Ultra onwards Germans have a long history of having their stuff intercepted.

    It does make you wonder that the financial institution I work for takes securing calls more seriously than the German military.

    I can only hope the Germans and the Western allies are engaging in an Operation Fortitude/Bodyguard.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,479

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    That "smaller Labour win" is a 140 majority landslide...

    If Sunak has any balls he will stick to plan A and go for 2nd May. Launch a campaign straight off the back of a budget which throws in a Labour-confusing curve ball and then keep banging away at it. Hope that with even a bit of momentum going into the election that you can pull off some kind of result.

    On practically every metric is is the right play. But he won't. He will be indecisive and miss the deadline. Once they slide on past May it turns into an avalanche, and all of the reasons why they slid past May repeat again for any other date. Which is how we get to 12th December (5th anniversary) or 23rd January as the two options.

    It is in nobody's interests - especially Starmer's - for there to be a Labour mega-landslide. No matter how much of a kicking people want to give the Tories. BTW there would be tactical switching - it would be a LD pick-up in places like Hunt's seat, not Labour. But even so.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    It's pretty obvious. The GRU must have somebody inside the GAF. How else would they know to "hack" it? Somebody probably just gave them the password or whatever for money.
    People probe security all the time. I’ve been to presentations by the security people at banks, where they bring up a live display of the attacks that just happen to be occurring at that time.

    Attempting to logon/connect to everything is very common.

    The classic works like this. Mike’s email at the bank is mike.surname@thebank.com. Trivial to figure that out. Mike reuses passwords because he is a bit of an idiot. So when a company has a data breach and a zillion passwords get stolen, the account with userid mike.surname@gmail.com is compromised.

    Instead of playing games with Mike’s Gmail, someone uses other stolen data to link it to LinkedIn - and figures out where Mike works. They work out his work email address from his name. So they try logging in as Mike. If that doesn’t work, they try varying the password.

    2FA is a very good idea…
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    edited March 4

    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    Security requires both knowledge and effort. If you're an expert in a non-security field, you may not have the knowledge to be secure (though you should), or think the extra effort not worth it. "It gets in the way!" is a common comment.

    There should really be sackings over this; its effect in the information warspace alone is massive to Russia. Until people lose their jobs, they won't consider the effort worth it.
    Difficult to sack the Chancellor without an election.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,479

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    It's pretty obvious. The GRU must have somebody inside the GAF. How else would they know to "hack" it? Somebody probably just gave them the password or whatever for money.
    People probe security all the time. I’ve been to presentations by the security people at banks, where they bring up a live display of the attacks that just happen to be occurring at that time.

    Attempting to logon/connect to everything is very common.

    The classic works like this. Mike’s email at the bank is mike.surname@thebank.com. Trivial to figure that out. Mike reuses passwords because he is a bit of an idiot. So when a company has a data breach and a zillion passwords get stolen, the account with userid mike.surname@gmail.com is compromised.

    Instead of playing games with Mike’s Gmail, someone uses other stolen data to link it to LinkedIn - and figures out where Mike works. They work out his work email address from his name. So they try logging in as Mike. If that doesn’t work, they try varying the password.

    2FA is a very good idea…
    I keep getting DMs on LinkedIn from non-UK headhunters. All want my phone number so they can connect on WhatsApp. Not sure what the hackers are looking to do with it, but the scammers all use basically the same message which makes them obvious to see...
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,090
    Taz said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It would be the same with the sainted rNHS if that wasn’t in the headlines, or any matter. Look how inflation has fallen.
    I’ve not seen a lot of headlines about the NHS lately, yet it’s risen to the top.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    Yesterday we indirectly experienced the challenging state of the NHS.

    A family friend in his sixties started suffering palpitations and other issues, his wife rang 999 worried it was a stroke/heart attack, was told they would send out an ambulance, got a follow up call 30 mins saying the ambulance would likely be four to five hours.

    She rang my Mum who promptly sent my father and myself to their house and we took him to the hospital where it turns out he had a very mild heart attack.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745
    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    All true, but there's another thing as well.

    One of the worst culprits for not investing is the public sector. We have refused to invest anything like enough in training, technology and support "So We Can Prioritise The Front Line". So you get doctors and nurses doing way to much of their own admin. See also teachers. And that's been true for decades.

    It's a long time since I had to think about military strategy, but my recollection is that unsupported front lines tend to collapse.

    But to return to the header, tax cuts really aren't going to help here, especially when they are based on fantasy spending plans.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    It's pretty obvious. The GRU must have somebody inside the GAF. How else would they know to "hack" it? Somebody probably just gave them the password or whatever for money.
    Possibly, or someone's email is compromised. We know senior British and American politicians love their insecure private email servers. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility some Ober­leutnant forwarded the invitation to his Outlook address.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    On other matters it appears that the US SC is about to give its judgment as to whether or not Trump can be on the ticket: https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/03/supreme-court-to-issue-opinion-monday-morning/

    This, of course, is 1 day before Super Tuesday when Trump is expected to seal the GOP nomination. It would be genuinely astonishing if they upheld the decision to exclude him but it will be interesting to see what hurdles might remain in the future. Would, for example, conviction in the Jan 6th Trial exclude him?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    It's pretty obvious. The GRU must have somebody inside the GAF. How else would they know to "hack" it? Somebody probably just gave them the password or whatever for money.
    Applies also to the political leadership.

    Reports of Russian spies in the German military, intelligence services and political class are not exactly rare.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    Yesterday we indirectly experienced the challenging state of the NHS.

    A family friend in his sixties started suffering palpitations and other issues, his wife rang 999 worried it was a stroke/heart attack, was told they would send out an ambulance, got a follow up call 30 mins saying the ambulance would likely be four to five hours.

    She rang my Mum who promptly sent my father and myself to their house and we took him to the hospital where it turns out he had a very mild heart attack.
    Good for the three of you.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    On one hand, the projections seem absurd. On the other, the current polls have Labour doing roughly as well as 1997 and the Conservatives doing somewhere between a bit worse and a lot worse.

    If those conditions persist, how can the seats outcome not be between a rout and a disaster?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    All true, but there's another thing as well.

    One of the worst culprits for not investing is the public sector. We have refused to invest anything like enough in training, technology and support "So We Can Prioritise The Front Line". So you get doctors and nurses doing way to much of their own admin. See also teachers. And that's been true for decades.

    It's a long time since I had to think about military strategy, but my recollection is that unsupported front lines tend to collapse.

    But to return to the header, tax cuts really aren't going to help here, especially when they are based on fantasy spending plans.
    The problem is, we strip out the support networks but not the tasks they were doing.

    It needs to be the other way around. You remove unnecessary work - and a lot of it is very unnecessary - and that way you don't need the support structure that used to perform those tasks any more.

    Milei seems to be making exactly the same mistake in Argentina. And will probably have the same result.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    edited March 4

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    It's pretty obvious. The GRU must have somebody inside the GAF. How else would they know to "hack" it? Somebody probably just gave them the password or whatever for money.
    People probe security all the time. I’ve been to presentations by the security people at banks, where they bring up a live display of the attacks that just happen to be occurring at that time.

    Attempting to logon/connect to everything is very common.

    The classic works like this. Mike’s email at the bank is mike.surname@thebank.com. Trivial to figure that out. Mike reuses passwords because he is a bit of an idiot. So when a company has a data breach and a zillion passwords get stolen, the account with userid mike.surname@gmail.com is compromised.

    Instead of playing games with Mike’s Gmail, someone uses other stolen data to link it to LinkedIn - and figures out where Mike works. They work out his work email address from his name. So they try logging in as Mike. If that doesn’t work, they try varying the password.

    2FA is a very good idea…
    LinkedIn will also likely identify Mike's bosses and colleagues, whose names can then be used to spearphish Mike.

    PBers will know they can type their own email addresses into Have I Been Pwned? which will tell them if those addresses have been involved in data breaches.
    https://haveibeenpwned.com/
  • Options
    lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 37

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    That "smaller Labour win" is a 140 majority landslide...

    If Sunak has any balls he will stick to plan A and go for 2nd May. Launch a campaign straight off the back of a budget which throws in a Labour-confusing curve ball and then keep banging away at it. Hope that with even a bit of momentum going into the election that you can pull off some kind of result.

    On practically every metric is is the right play. But he won't. He will be indecisive and miss the deadline. Once they slide on past May it turns into an avalanche, and all of the reasons why they slid past May repeat again for any other date. Which is how we get to 12th December (5th anniversary) or 23rd January as the two options.

    It is in nobody's interests - especially Starmer's - for there to be a Labour mega-landslide. No matter how much of a kicking people want to give the Tories. BTW there would be tactical switching - it would be a LD pick-up in places like Hunt's seat, not Labour. But even so.
    One thing weighing against Sunak hanging on to the bitter end is a scenario mentioned in the article.

    The slim but real possibility that the LDs get more seats than the Conservatives.

    If the Torys aren't even the official opposition, Sunak's legacy will be the death of the party.
    Is an extra few months of helicopter rides worth that?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    Harris seems to be more willing than Starmer to criticise Israel.

    Kamala Harris issues sharp rebuke of Israel over ‘humanitarian catastrophe’ in Gaza
    Vice-president calls for ceasefire and immediate hostage release, in comments that appear to be strongest yet by a US leader on Gaza
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/04/kamala-harris-israel-idf-gaza-catastrophe-ceasefire-hamas-hostage-deal
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    DavidL said:

    On other matters it appears that the US SC is about to give its judgment as to whether or not Trump can be on the ticket: https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/03/supreme-court-to-issue-opinion-monday-morning/

    This, of course, is 1 day before Super Tuesday when Trump is expected to seal the GOP nomination. It would be genuinely astonishing if they upheld the decision to exclude him but it will be interesting to see what hurdles might remain in the future. Would, for example, conviction in the Jan 6th Trial exclude him?

    Super Tuesday is tomorrow. How did that happen?

    Meanwhile, Nikki Haley has finally won one so it will not quite be a clean sweep for The Donald.

    Nikki Haley beat Donald Trump for the very first time in the Washington, D.C., Republican primary Sunday night handing her what might be her only win heading into Super Tuesday.

    The D.C. Republican Party reported Haley won 62 percent compared to Trump's 33 percent with only 2,035 voters participating. That makes Haley the first Republican woman to ever win a primary in U.S. history.

    The result in D.C. comes one day after Trump's clean sweep of GOP primaries in Idaho, Michigan and Missouri on Saturday as he inches closer to a rematch with Biden in November.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13147327/donald-trump-nikki-haley-washington-dc-primary.html
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    It's pretty obvious. The GRU must have somebody inside the GAF. How else would they know to "hack" it? Somebody probably just gave them the password or whatever for money.
    People probe security all the time. I’ve been to presentations by the security people at banks, where they bring up a live display of the attacks that just happen to be occurring at that time.

    Attempting to logon/connect to everything is very common.

    The classic works like this. Mike’s email at the bank is mike.surname@thebank.com. Trivial to figure that out. Mike reuses passwords because he is a bit of an idiot. So when a company has a data breach and a zillion passwords get stolen, the account with userid mike.surname@gmail.com is compromised.

    Instead of playing games with Mike’s Gmail, someone uses other stolen data to link it to LinkedIn - and figures out where Mike works. They work out his work email address from his name. So they try logging in as Mike. If that doesn’t work, they try varying the password.

    2FA is a very good idea…
    I keep getting DMs on LinkedIn from non-UK headhunters. All want my phone number so they can connect on WhatsApp. Not sure what the hackers are looking to do with it, but the scammers all use basically the same message which makes them obvious to see...
    Cloning your phone number is a thing - so that they can get around security that works by sending a 2FA login authentication to your phone as a text.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    Yesterday we indirectly experienced the challenging state of the NHS.

    A family friend in his sixties started suffering palpitations and other issues, his wife rang 999 worried it was a stroke/heart attack, was told they would send out an ambulance, got a follow up call 30 mins saying the ambulance would likely be four to five hours.

    She rang my Mum who promptly sent my father and myself to their house and we took him to the hospital where it turns out he had a very mild heart attack.
    We had to wait nearly 12 hours (overnight) for an ambulance a month ago when my son had a very high temperature and was suffering convulsions.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    TimS said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
    Your argument seems to be that if we stop talking about immigration it will go away as an issue.

    Firstly, you can't just stop HMG from publishing data on it and, secondly, people aren't stupid and experience it through their own lives.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,479
    lockhimup said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    That "smaller Labour win" is a 140 majority landslide...

    If Sunak has any balls he will stick to plan A and go for 2nd May. Launch a campaign straight off the back of a budget which throws in a Labour-confusing curve ball and then keep banging away at it. Hope that with even a bit of momentum going into the election that you can pull off some kind of result.

    On practically every metric is is the right play. But he won't. He will be indecisive and miss the deadline. Once they slide on past May it turns into an avalanche, and all of the reasons why they slid past May repeat again for any other date. Which is how we get to 12th December (5th anniversary) or 23rd January as the two options.

    It is in nobody's interests - especially Starmer's - for there to be a Labour mega-landslide. No matter how much of a kicking people want to give the Tories. BTW there would be tactical switching - it would be a LD pick-up in places like Hunt's seat, not Labour. But even so.
    One thing weighing against Sunak hanging on to the bitter end is a scenario mentioned in the article.

    The slim but real possibility that the LDs get more seats than the Conservatives.

    If the Torys aren't even the official opposition, Sunak's legacy will be the death of the party.
    Is an extra few months of helicopter rides worth that?
    Which is why he needs to stick to plan A and go on the 2nd May.

    But. Alastair is quoting the public polls. It has been reported that the Tories have internal polls showing the situation being much better. In the Tory polls there is no ELE risk...
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    All true, but there's another thing as well.

    One of the worst culprits for not investing is the public sector. We have refused to invest anything like enough in training, technology and support "So We Can Prioritise The Front Line". So you get doctors and nurses doing way to much of their own admin. See also teachers. And that's been true for decades.

    It's a long time since I had to think about military strategy, but my recollection is that unsupported front lines tend to collapse.

    But to return to the header, tax cuts really aren't going to help here, especially when they are based on fantasy spending plans.
    The problem is, we strip out the support networks but not the tasks they were doing.

    It needs to be the other way around. You remove unnecessary work - and a lot of it is very unnecessary - and that way you don't need the support structure that used to perform those tasks any more.

    Milei seems to be making exactly the same mistake in Argentina. And will probably have the same result.
    Must Finish Header…
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,004
    Good morning.

    There's something discombobulating about Keiran Pedley heading towards middle age.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    All true, but there's another thing as well.

    One of the worst culprits for not investing is the public sector. We have refused to invest anything like enough in training, technology and support "So We Can Prioritise The Front Line". So you get doctors and nurses doing way to much of their own admin. See also teachers. And that's been true for decades.

    It's a long time since I had to think about military strategy, but my recollection is that unsupported front lines tend to collapse.

    But to return to the header, tax cuts really aren't going to help here, especially when they are based on fantasy spending plans.
    I agree. But the hard bit is that spending that money on unreformed public services rather than tax cuts is not likely to produce a meaningful result. Where this and previous governments have failed is failing to drive productivity and output in public services rather than trying some crude headcount reductions (now all reversed and then some).

    The failure of admin systems to support and not actively hinder those at the sharp end is by no means restricted to the public sector, of course, but it does seem particularly prevalent there. It requires a change of mindset but that is not something we talk about, preferring instead to focus on the gross numbers of doctors, nurses etc rather than what they are being required to do with their time.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    Yesterday we indirectly experienced the challenging state of the NHS.

    A family friend in his sixties started suffering palpitations and other issues, his wife rang 999 worried it was a stroke/heart attack, was told they would send out an ambulance, got a follow up call 30 mins saying the ambulance would likely be four to five hours.

    She rang my Mum who promptly sent my father and myself to their house and we took him to the hospital where it turns out he had a very mild heart attack.
    My MIL was found by her carer on Saturday night with breathing difficulties. The carer phoned 999 who told her that an ambulance would attend in 1-2 hours. The carer then phoned us because she did not think she could leave her but had other calls to do. We drove over to my MILs house (approximately 30 minutes) where, in fairness, not 1 but 2 ambulances had arrived. The carer was still there. Quite exceptional commitment and consideration on her part.

    Thankfully all was ultimately well.
    One lesson from these stories is that the NHS does not have to be in the news because most voters know someone – relative, colleague, friend of a friend of the woman behind the counter at Greggs – who has recently been at the sharp end of a stethoscope and reported any shortcomings.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    I think the number one call on any increase in the NHS budget would be the salaries of doctors and nurses, not new services or extra capacity.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348

    TimS said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
    Your argument seems to be that if we stop talking about immigration it will go away as an issue.

    Firstly, you can't just stop HMG from publishing data on it and, secondly, people aren't stupid and experience it through their own lives.
    I think you need to reread the comment.
    It's pointing out that government isn't publishing regular data for most immigration.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266

    OT just got my first TwiX follower. Since I've never tweeted, I shall assume this is part of some fake influencer or bot network.

    Will be a lady of the night for sure , seems to have started recently , they always have followers but have never posted
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126
    lockhimup said:


    If the Torys aren't even the official opposition, Sunak's legacy will be the death of the party.
    Is an extra few months of helicopter rides worth that?

    Yes, the Prime Miniature loves helicopter rides.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170

    DavidL said:

    On other matters it appears that the US SC is about to give its judgment as to whether or not Trump can be on the ticket: https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/03/supreme-court-to-issue-opinion-monday-morning/

    This, of course, is 1 day before Super Tuesday when Trump is expected to seal the GOP nomination. It would be genuinely astonishing if they upheld the decision to exclude him but it will be interesting to see what hurdles might remain in the future. Would, for example, conviction in the Jan 6th Trial exclude him?

    Super Tuesday is tomorrow. How did that happen?

    Meanwhile, Nikki Haley has finally won one so it will not quite be a clean sweep for The Donald.

    Nikki Haley beat Donald Trump for the very first time in the Washington, D.C., Republican primary Sunday night handing her what might be her only win heading into Super Tuesday.

    The D.C. Republican Party reported Haley won 62 percent compared to Trump's 33 percent with only 2,035 voters participating. That makes Haley the first Republican woman to ever win a primary in U.S. history.

    The result in D.C. comes one day after Trump's clean sweep of GOP primaries in Idaho, Michigan and Missouri on Saturday as he inches closer to a rematch with Biden in November.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13147327/donald-trump-nikki-haley-washington-dc-primary.html
    The BBC report is interesting, as the turnout was around 10% of registered Republicans in the district. Does that mean that a large proportion of normally Republican voters don’t intend to vote at all this November?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
    Your argument seems to be that if we stop talking about immigration it will go away as an issue.

    Firstly, you can't just stop HMG from publishing data on it and, secondly, people aren't stupid and experience it through their own lives.
    I think you need to reread the comment.
    It's pointing out that government isn't publishing regular data for most immigration.
    The government publish such data annually.

    It's much easier to count 4-5 boats and the people in them each week, particularly when the waters are actively policed and each is greeted on landing.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056

    TimS said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
    Your argument seems to be that if we stop talking about immigration it will go away as an issue.

    Firstly, you can't just stop HMG from publishing data on it and, secondly, people aren't stupid and experience it through their own lives.
    I wasn’t making that argument, that was the original poster. But the most visible immigration, ie people arriving on the beach off a dinghy, is much more salient.

    If salience of immigration were based mainly on people’s experiences in day to day life it would be much more salient in London than elsewhere. I’m sure that’s part of it in specific areas, but it doesn’t explain the waxing and waning of nationwide levels of interest.

    I also sense it’s one of those issues that rises in salience when not crowded out by others like the economy. Environmental concerns, EU relations, foreign affairs all follow a similar pattern.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
    Your argument seems to be that if we stop talking about immigration it will go away as an issue.

    Firstly, you can't just stop HMG from publishing data on it and, secondly, people aren't stupid and experience it through their own lives.
    I think you need to reread the comment.
    It's pointing out that government isn't publishing regular data for most immigration.
    The government publish such data annually.

    It's much easier to count 4-5 boats and the people in them each week, particularly when the waters are actively policed and each is greeted on landing.
    Precisely the point.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    Yesterday we indirectly experienced the challenging state of the NHS.

    A family friend in his sixties started suffering palpitations and other issues, his wife rang 999 worried it was a stroke/heart attack, was told they would send out an ambulance, got a follow up call 30 mins saying the ambulance would likely be four to five hours.

    She rang my Mum who promptly sent my father and myself to their house and we took him to the hospital where it turns out he had a very mild heart attack.
    My MIL was found by her carer on Saturday night with breathing difficulties. The carer phoned 999 who told her that an ambulance would attend in 1-2 hours. The carer then phoned us because she did not think she could leave her but had other calls to do. We drove over to my MILs house (approximately 30 minutes) where, in fairness, not 1 but 2 ambulances had arrived. The carer was still there. Quite exceptional commitment and consideration on her part.

    Thankfully all was ultimately well.
    One lesson from these stories is that the NHS does not have to be in the news because most voters know someone – relative, colleague, friend of a friend of the woman behind the counter at Greggs – who has recently been at the sharp end of a stethoscope and reported any shortcomings.
    Remind me to avoid that GP surgery.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    German air chief’s secret call about British troops ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine is intercepted by Russia in major breach
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26329969/call-british-troops-ukraine-intercepted-russia-security-breach-germany/

    This story has been posted here before. Russia hacked into a German government Webex (think Zoom on steroids) call in which German military officers mentioned there are British troops in Ukraine. Russia recorded and then broadcast the call.

    One theory is that Russia did not hack into Webex at all, but simply joined the conference call by dialling into it like any other participant. Shades of the Battle of the Atlantic when U-boats would join allied convoys to sink them from within.

    Oops. Stay safe.

    What the hell were the German military, doing not being damn careful about who logs into their conference calls? It’s not as if Webex can’t be set to work only inside an organisation, require authentication from everyone joining, and alert the host to anyone trying to join from outside?
    It's pretty obvious. The GRU must have somebody inside the GAF. How else would they know to "hack" it? Somebody probably just gave them the password or whatever for money.
    People probe security all the time. I’ve been to presentations by the security people at banks, where they bring up a live display of the attacks that just happen to be occurring at that time.

    Attempting to logon/connect to everything is very common.

    The classic works like this. Mike’s email at the bank is mike.surname@thebank.com. Trivial to figure that out. Mike reuses passwords because he is a bit of an idiot. So when a company has a data breach and a zillion passwords get stolen, the account with userid mike.surname@gmail.com is compromised.

    Instead of playing games with Mike’s Gmail, someone uses other stolen data to link it to LinkedIn - and figures out where Mike works. They work out his work email address from his name. So they try logging in as Mike. If that doesn’t work, they try varying the password.

    2FA is a very good idea…
    As with using Webex rather than Zoom, 2FA *can* be a good idea - if it’s set up properly, and doesn’t for example rely on insecure services such as SMS for authentication, which can make a targeted attack easier to implement.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,034

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    I think it’ll be

    Lab: 42%
    Con 31%
    LD 9%
    Ref 7%
    Grn 4%
    SNP 4%
    Other 3%
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
    Heed the warnings of @Leon and prepare to fight the coming robot army and aliens?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
    Your argument seems to be that if we stop talking about immigration it will go away as an issue.

    Firstly, you can't just stop HMG from publishing data on it and, secondly, people aren't stupid and experience it through their own lives.
    I think you need to reread the comment.
    It's pointing out that government isn't publishing regular data for most immigration.
    The government publish such data annually.

    It's much easier to count 4-5 boats and the people in them each week, particularly when the waters are actively policed and each is greeted on landing.
    Precisely the point.
    Err, ok. Whatever.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    I think the number one call on any increase in the NHS budget would be the salaries of doctors and nurses, not new services or extra capacity.
    Yep - and I suspect the cost wouldn't be that great if the insane amount of money being spent on agency staff could be cut a bit...
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...
    This is just wishful thinking.

    You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    They need to overhaul the whole system first. It is like throwing money down a black hole. Waiting till people are seriously or having no-one at the sharp end is madness. Usual penny wise and pounds foolish.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    edited March 4

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...
    This is just wishful thinking.

    You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
    Nope I'm looking at 1997 - one reason for the result was that the Tory vote decided that Blair was (just about) acceptable and didn't go out and vote that day.

    I suspect an awful lot of Tory voters are thinking the same now - we don't like Starmer but compared to this mess of a Tory party Labour can't do a worse job.

    And be honest - anyone with a vague plan would be doing better than this Government that is completely bereft of any ideas..
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
    91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.

    There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    eek said:

    From twitter (https://twitter.com/daveguitarjones/status/1764377243629838428)

    Lord Nelson was 5ft 6in.

    His statue is 17ft 4in.

    That’s Horatio of 3:1.

    And don't get me started on the size of his column...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    On one hand, the projections seem absurd. On the other, the current polls have Labour doing roughly as well as 1997 and the Conservatives doing somewhere between a bit worse and a lot worse.

    If those conditions persist, how can the seats outcome not be between a rout and a disaster?
    All they needed from Rishi was a year or so of sensible, moderate government, to give people time to forget the trauma that went before, and then a damage-limitation election.

    Contrary to what Tory members think, their core voter is someone who sees themselves as moderate and non-political; the type of person who might look up at the TV, comment that "this Cameron seems like a sensible fellow" and then go back to doing the crossword. And not the rabid anti-EU, anti-immigration, anti-woke, anti-21st century brigade who have been allowed to come to the fore under the clown and since.

    Pandering to the latter will put the Tories into opposition for a very long time...
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
    Your argument seems to be that if we stop talking about immigration it will go away as an issue.

    Firstly, you can't just stop HMG from publishing data on it and, secondly, people aren't stupid and experience it through their own lives.
    I think you need to reread the comment.
    It's pointing out that government isn't publishing regular data for most immigration.
    The government publish such data annually.

    It's much easier to count 4-5 boats and the people in them each week, particularly when the waters are actively policed and each is greeted on landing.
    Precisely the point.
    It is like a taxi service , be far cheaper just buying them ferry tickets. They never get chucked out anyway.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    It’s interesting to see how much immigration drops when it’s not in the headlines.

    It's also because the numbers have dropped.

    Most days it's "zero" but once or twice a week there's a surge of 250-300 in one go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    It looks down compared to 2022 and 2023 for the first two months of this year, but May to October is the peak season and we'll only really know then.
    Your comment spotlights the issue with public opinion and immigration perfectly.

    We’ve no way of knowing if immigration is up or down right now because the only people who do know are those in the home office issuing visas. Because legal immigration is overwhelmingly the dominant source. And of course we have no idea about emigration.

    But numbers of asylum seekers arriving on small boats: that we do know, and they are visible.

    So people hear “immigration” and think small boats, when the latter is only a small part of the story.
    Your argument seems to be that if we stop talking about immigration it will go away as an issue.

    Firstly, you can't just stop HMG from publishing data on it and, secondly, people aren't stupid and experience it through their own lives.
    I think you need to reread the comment.
    It's pointing out that government isn't publishing regular data for most immigration.
    The government publish such data annually.

    It's much easier to count 4-5 boats and the people in them each week, particularly when the waters are actively policed and each is greeted on landing.
    Precisely the point.
    It is like a taxi service , be far cheaper just buying them ferry tickets. They never get chucked out anyway.
    Good idea, but we could improve it. If we put the Scottish Government in charge of the ferry services in question, they would all be stuck in France while the SG tried to find various mates they could spaff loads of cash to to build ferries that don't work and run years late and millions over budget.

    It would probably still be cheaper than Rwanda *and* would stop the asylum seekers getting here.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    eek said:

    From twitter (https://twitter.com/daveguitarjones/status/1764377243629838428)

    Lord Nelson was 5ft 6in.

    His statue is 17ft 4in.

    That’s Horatio of 3:1.

    Three to one also being the odds faced at his first great victory.

    https://warontherocks.com/2017/02/the-emergence-of-horatio-nelson-lessons-for-leaders/
    ...After his ship had sustained heavy damage from the fire of not less than five enemy vessels, Nelson ordered Captain to be crashed alongside the nearest, the San Nicolás, and personally led the boarding parties — the first British flag officer to do so since the 16th century — with a cry of “Westminster Abbey or glorious victory!”..
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...
    This is just wishful thinking.

    You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
    Aren't you doing much the same from the opposite direction?

    It's true that it's very hard to detect enthusiasm for Labour, unlike 1997.

    But Sunak is also a far weaker candidate than Major, even in his death throes. So the gap between the parties is pretty much 1997-like.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    It is indeed unfortunate that we are so obsessed by the NHS and its poor performance. What we should be focused on this week is the capacity of our economy to produce yet more resources for it. That means trying to address the very poor growth rate that we have had over the last couple of years (along with most of Europe it has to be said), our tendency to over consume and under invest (hint, tax cuts are not the answer to this) and our poor productivity driven by an education system that is also not producing results and our predilection to hire more unskilled labour rather than investing in training and technology.

    There are limits to how much of the current cake the NHS can have. If we want to spend more on it, and indeed everything else, we need to find ways to grow.

    I think the number one call on any increase in the NHS budget would be the salaries of doctors and nurses, not new services or extra capacity.
    Yep - and I suspect the cost wouldn't be that great if the insane amount of money being spent on agency staff could be cut a bit...
    You say expensive agency staff. Others welcome private sector staffing solutions.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.

    I wonder where this story ends.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
    91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.

    There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
    The most interesting bit of Alastair's piece was this:
    ...At the upper bound of what we can reasonably currently expect, we are looking at something close to a one party Parliament the like of which has not been seen before in Britain. I do not think that government, MPs, the media or the public have begun to absorb this. It’s about time that they did.

    Unlikely, perhaps. But it's far from impossible.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...
    This is just wishful thinking.

    You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
    A problem is that the view of 'Conservative' amongst many 'supporters' excludes millions of voters. Only the ideological pure (*) can be true Conservatives.

    The Conservative Party are not trying to appeal to Joe and Jane Public; just an internal circle-jerk of right-wingers, ever-decreasing in size.

    (*) IMV 'diseased' rather than 'pure'.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
    91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.

    There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
    The most interesting bit of Alastair's piece was this:
    ...At the upper bound of what we can reasonably currently expect, we are looking at something close to a one party Parliament the like of which has not been seen before in Britain. I do not think that government, MPs, the media or the public have begun to absorb this. It’s about time that they did.

    Unlikely, perhaps. But it's far from impossible.
    I've been predicting a humongous Labour majority for some time. They don't deserve it, but the Conservatives sure as heck do deserve a drubbing.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,053
    Betting Post

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Perez still 11 (12 with boost) each way to win in Saudi Arabia. Given his record at the circuit and the way last race went, I think it's worth backing.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    Taz said:

    Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.

    I wonder where this story ends.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61

    In the criminal courts, perhaps.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
    91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.

    There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
    There is a Ricky Gervais routine about health where he points out that any extra years you live come at the end of your life, you don't get another decade of being in your twenties.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...
    This is just wishful thinking.

    You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
    You said earlier "I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed."

    You may be right in terms of voters' thoughts but individuals can't vote for a small Labour majority or a hung parliament. Each voter has one vote; there is no groupthink that can organise such an outcome.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
    91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.

    There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
    The most interesting bit of Alastair's piece was this:
    ...At the upper bound of what we can reasonably currently expect, we are looking at something close to a one party Parliament the like of which has not been seen before in Britain. I do not think that government, MPs, the media or the public have begun to absorb this. It’s about time that they did.

    Unlikely, perhaps. But it's far from impossible.
    I've been predicting a humongous Labour majority for some time. They don't deserve it, but the Conservatives sure as heck do deserve a drubbing.
    Whether or not they deserve it isn't really the issue. Rather, how well might government function without a serious opposition ?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    From twitter (https://twitter.com/daveguitarjones/status/1764377243629838428)

    Lord Nelson was 5ft 6in.

    His statue is 17ft 4in.

    That’s Horatio of 3:1.

    Three to one also being the odds faced at his first great victory.

    https://warontherocks.com/2017/02/the-emergence-of-horatio-nelson-lessons-for-leaders/
    ...After his ship had sustained heavy damage from the fire of not less than five enemy vessels, Nelson ordered Captain to be crashed alongside the nearest, the San Nicolás, and personally led the boarding parties — the first British flag officer to do so since the 16th century — with a cry of “Westminster Abbey or glorious victory!”..
    The funny thing was Nelson could easily have won a victory at Trafalgar without exposing himself to such personal risk.

    The French/Spanish fleet had poor seamanship skills and it didn't require him to sacrifice himself in the thick of the fighting.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...
    This is just wishful thinking.

    You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
    Aren't you doing much the same from the opposite direction?

    It's true that it's very hard to detect enthusiasm for Labour, unlike 1997.

    But Sunak is also a far weaker candidate than Major, even in his death throes. So the gap between the parties is pretty much 1997-like.
    No, I think a wipeout is perfectly possible.

    I just don't agree with the assertion that voters I don't like will stay at home whereas those who do will enthusiastically turn out in droves.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
    91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.

    There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
    I did it. I’ve got 1941 days left !!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
    I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)

    Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
    91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.

    There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
    There is a Ricky Gervais routine about health where he points out that any extra years you live come at the end of your life, you don't get another decade of being in your twenties.
    It'd be nice to rerun my twenties now, with all the money and confidence I have now. And, yes, the women - amazing.

    Trouble is you'd probably be equally frustrated professionally. Very unlikely to get the top senior roles at that age, although not impossible. And also slightly at odds with having a very "good time".
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    Taz said:

    Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.

    I wonder where this story ends.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61

    Michelle Mone in prison.

    Which coincidentally is another story I’ve long thought about.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484

    Taz said:

    Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.

    I wonder where this story ends.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61

    Michelle Mone in prison.

    Which coincidentally is another story I’ve long thought about.

    🤔🤔🤔🤔
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting new piece by Mr Meeks yesterday:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-death-clock-71b807a65973

    Not that interesting. Alastair Meeks basically tells us the polls predict a Labour landslide but it is possible DKs will return to the fold and that Reform is overstated at the expense of the Tories, in which case there will be a smaller Labour win.
    Though even that result is a Labour landslide, and the other end of the bell curve is approaching total wipeout. Incidentally no tactical vote correction.

    I found it interesting anyway. I think punters and pundits are underestimating what is heading our way. I don't see a tiny tax cut altering that prospect.
    I don't think there will be a total wipeout because I don't think people think Labour deserve it and they don't want a Labour administration that's totally unopposed.

    My best guess is the Tories get 27-28% of the vote, if only with lots of clothes pegs on noses.
    That would require those voters to actually turn out and vote and if you dislike the tory party that much chances are such voters would stay at home. Especially if the election is on a cold, damp dark evening...
    This is just wishful thinking.

    You are starting from the point of desiring a Tory wipeout and then working out your reasoning back from there.
    Aren't you doing much the same from the opposite direction?

    It's true that it's very hard to detect enthusiasm for Labour, unlike 1997.

    But Sunak is also a far weaker candidate than Major, even in his death throes. So the gap between the parties is pretty much 1997-like.
    No, I think a wipeout is perfectly possible.

    I just don't agree with the assertion that voters I don't like will stay at home whereas those who do will enthusiastically turn out in droves.
    Surely, on the basis of the polls, this kind of differential turnout is the only thing that could avert a Labour landslide. Either that or a differential movement of Don't Knows to the Tories.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620

    Taz said:

    Dan Neidle, who was labelled a Tory stooge by some for daring to raise issues with the recent Angela Rayner story, has this about PPE and Medpro today.

    I wonder where this story ends.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1764568353148973422?s=61

    Michelle Mone in prison.

    Which coincidentally is another story I’ve long thought about.
    They'll flee to some offshore spot with no extradition treaty before the point where she gets to share a cell with Paula Vennells
This discussion has been closed.