The problem with the argument that no PM in his right mind would call an election in May when he’s 27 points behind is that it’s based on the (rational in normal times) assumption that “things can only get better.”
I’d argue that fundamentally misunderstands the last 3-5 years.
For Rishi Sunak, things can and will get worse. Probably this week.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
Joined up politics (and political hacks). Two non-adjacent items from Andrew Pierce's column:-
Much mockery at the Tory winter ball last week of Sir Keir Starmer U-turning on his pledge to splurge £28 billion a year on green projects.
Lord Leigh, a party treasurer, said: 'Starmer is barred from bidding.
He normally starts at £28 billion, then goes to £5 billion, before offering £20 and some luncheon vouchers.'
But further down, we find:-
Anderson's row with Khan overshadowed Rishi Sunak's announcement last week that the money saved by scrapping HS2's northern link will fund enhanced transport connections in the North and the Midlands.
Major banks have called for a crackdown on Apple over claims the tech giant’s access to millions of iPhone users’ transactions will give it an unfair advantage as it pushes further into financial services.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)’s Practitioner Panel, consisting of bank and insurance executives, has written to the regulator saying there are “multiple imbalances” in how tech giants can gather and use consumer spending data.
The letter, signed by Barclays’ UK chief executive Matt Hammerstein, specifically references Apple and Amazon, warning that there is a “pressing need” to address their access to data.
It says that Apple, which allows customers to connect their bank accounts to their iPhone’s Wallet app, will account for the majority of activity in open banking – a system paid for by major banks – by the end of this year.
It also raises concerns over Amazon and how its wealth of data on shopping habits could also give the company an advantage.
“Consistent access to information across competitors is essential for fairness in the market,” the letter said. “The ability of big tech to access private and public retail data and combine it with AI and advanced analytics may create the conditions for market dominance.
“While we have no doubt that big tech often does deliver good experiences and outcomes for their customers, they are under no obligation to do so, let alone demonstrate that, while big tech obtains these data privileges for free and have no obligations on how it is used.”
The FCA is investigating whether big tech companies enjoy unfair access to customers’ data in a way that could make them dominant in the market. It expects to report on a “call for input” by the summer.
Last year, Apple began allowing iPhone users to see their bank account transactions and balances through the Wallet app, taking advantage of the open banking protocol pushed through by regulators that allows bank accounts to be linked to other apps.
It came after the company bought UK fintech start-up Credit Kudos for a reported $150m (£119m) in 2022.
Open banking access requires authorisation by the FCA.
The problem with the argument that no PM in his right mind would call an election in May when he’s 27 points behind is that it’s based on the (rational in normal times) assumption that “things can only get better.”
I’d argue that fundamentally misunderstands the last 3-5 years.
For Rishi Sunak, things can and will get worse. Probably this week.
The reality is that things probably will get worse, but this isn't about reality.
Even amongst the little leaguers I have seen close up, you can only get somewhere in politics if you can mute the voice that says "you're going to lose".
I expect a Labour landslide. I don't expect a Tory wipe out. Why? Well I expect Labour to do very well and possibly too well in the LD/Tory seats. And for a Tory wipe out the LDs have to take a lot of these seats. On the LDs current poll ratings I expect them to take the obvious LD targets but I can see in the rest Labour piling up votes instead of the LDs taking the seats.
I hope I am wrong. I would like to see a Tory wipe out, not because I am anti Tory (I would have been just as happy to see it happen to Labour under similar circumstances), but because I would like to see a realignment of our politics rather than the same old same old.
I chatted to a LibDem organiser in Didcot and Wantage, the seat where I currently spend much of my time. He said they were trying to "persuade" Electoral Calculus to change their forecast for the seat, which is a Labour gain. I've corresponded with EC about this - they say they already feed into the model that it's a LibDem target seat and doesn't yet have a Labour candidate but it's still showing up as Labour ahead.
It's hard for polling to take account of the details on the ground. D&W has had massive boundary changes, losing 15K rural voters. Labour was locally in disarray last year and only put up 12 candidates for borough and town seats - all of them won but the LibDems cleaned up everywhere else. That's changed quite dramatically, with the CLP sorted out, a major Labour effort kicking off next week, a paid organiser and a very large budget. We're expecting something like the mid-Beds pattern here, whereas in some of the Surrey seats the position is very different and Labour is often not being especially active.
IMO the LIbDems do need to concentrate on their top 10-20 targets (rather than the 20-40 that I believe they are currently spreading their resources). Their national polling is down on 2019 and their best shot is cannibalising Labour and Green votes in seats where those parties aren't trying very hard (which is often quite random, depending on local individuals). If they spread themselves too thinly they may not gain very many seats at all.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
Yep. As Trump is. So hopefully they'll split that 'evil' vote.
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.
Keir Starmer must be the luckiest Labour leader in history. One wonders how well he would be doing if the Tories had somebody like David Cameron leading them.
Even more so considering how useless the Lib Dems are. They should really be polling on something like 15-20%.
(Starmer is attractive to Lib Dem sensibilities?)
Starmer is fairly tolerable to Lib Dem sensitivities. Possibly. Depends how much tough talking translates into tough/socially conservative/authoritarian action in government.
If the Tories go full(er) tonto and SKS tries to be a tough guy then the election after* next could be good for LDs. But they'd need to find a message and maybe a new leader better able to deliver it.
*the next election might not be that bad in seats at least - depends whether LDs can position themselves as the clear tactical vote against Con in places where they are second or Lab come from third to take several of those.
ETA: Some similar points made by kjh earlier - there is probably a window where slightly smaller gap between Lab and Con delivers more LDs and fewer Cons by encouraging tactical voting.
Talking about PMA adding years to your life - this is what Rishi has. He has a(n albeit Micawber-ish) positive attitude that says that things will or at least may improve and why on earth would he decide to terminate his premiership today when each day brings a longer legacy and further chances of that "something" turning up.
@montie As I keep saying, the longer Sunak clings to No10 the worse the rout is likely to be
I'm not convinced about that. Their current low 20s is below a normal level of buoyancy for the Tory brand, regardless of recent record. I think that's because Reform is doing well. Their own rating might not improve much between now and autumn or winter, but there's plenty of time for Reform to subside in the polls. The economy will probably be looking better by autumn too - forward-looking measures like PMI have been quite positive recently.
That said the best thing for the Tory party and its media supporters to do would probably be to go silent on anything to do with immigration for a few months and allow people to forget about Reform, but they're not going to do that. Instead they're going to try to neutralise Reform by banging on about immigration, thereby achieving the precise opposite effect.
Talking about PMA adding years to your life - this is what Rishi has. He has a(n albeit Micawber-ish) positive attitude that says that things will or at least may improve and why on earth would he decide to terminate his premiership today when each day brings a longer legacy and further chances of that "something" turning up.
There have been plenty of black swans in recent years. It's not irrational to hold out hope that the polls can change. If Sunak is thinking the polls will definitely change, he's being a fool. If he thinks there's a 10% chance they will, then there's reason to hold on and he's not being completely bonkers.
Talking about PMA adding years to your life - this is what Rishi has. He has a(n albeit Micawber-ish) positive attitude that says that things will or at least may improve and why on earth would he decide to terminate his premiership today when each day brings a longer legacy and further chances of that "something" turning up.
Another thing that calculator is missing is income/SES. I would guess that's fairly important, particularly in retirement with options for health and social care and remaining more active for longer if able to fund hobbies/holidays etc rather than just watching repeats of Last of the Summer Wine and One Foot in the Grave!
Well I wish I hadn't done that Death Clock. I don't have long left.
I have three years left...
That's not great (unless you're already 97) but don't worry you just need to fiddle with it like I did. Put yourself as 'positive' and a moderate drinker and you'll be rewarded with another quarter century. Then I did a bit more fiddling since it had me dying in October which I don't want. Eventually, by iteration, I got a death date I'm happy with. Well, as happy as you can be.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
I expect a Labour landslide. I don't expect a Tory wipe out. Why? Well I expect Labour to do very well and possibly too well in the LD/Tory seats. And for a Tory wipe out the LDs have to take a lot of these seats. On the LDs current poll ratings I expect them to take the obvious LD targets but I can see in the rest Labour piling up votes instead of the LDs taking the seats.
I hope I am wrong. I would like to see a Tory wipe out, not because I am anti Tory (I would have been just as happy to see it happen to Labour under similar circumstances), but because I would like to see a realignment of our politics rather than the same old same old.
I chatted to a LibDem organiser in Didcot and Wantage, the seat where I currently spend much of my time. He said they were trying to "persuade" Electoral Calculus to change their forecast for the seat, which is a Labour gain. I've corresponded with EC about this - they say they already feed into the model that it's a LibDem target seat and doesn't yet have a Labour candidate but it's still showing up as Labour ahead.
It's hard for polling to take account of the details on the ground. D&W has had massive boundary changes, losing 15K rural voters. Labour was locally in disarray last year and only put up 12 candidates for borough and town seats - all of them won but the LibDems cleaned up everywhere else. That's changed quite dramatically, with the CLP sorted out, a major Labour effort kicking off next week, a paid organiser and a very large budget. We're expecting something like the mid-Beds pattern here, whereas in some of the Surrey seats the position is very different and Labour is often not being especially active.
IMO the LIbDems do need to concentrate on their top 10-20 targets (rather than the 20-40 that I believe they are currently spreading their resources). Their national polling is down on 2019 and their best shot is cannibalising Labour and Green votes in seats where those parties aren't trying very hard (which is often quite random, depending on local individuals). If they spread themselves too thinly they may not gain very many seats at all.
It's going to be an interesting mini-battle in the event of a Tory wipeout. Rather like the Soviets and the Western allies advancing towards Berlin, there's a land-grab to be had of large swathes of rural and commuter-belt seats that were out of reach for both parties for years.
I hope there will be some informal understandings out there but the chances of that reduce if Labour looks like heading for a landslide. Less fear of the Tories squeaking through so less impetus to avoid them coming through the middle in competitive seats.
D&W is an interesting one. There does seem to be a pattern of Labour strength in rural and semi-rural areas with working/workaday towns, new build estates and reasonable transport connections. I think the LDs will do well in truly rural parts of the South West, and the cathedral cities. Plus the richest parts of the disillusioned commuter belt.
Pretty places = Lib Dem strength. I wonder if there's a useful correlation between number of AirBnB listings and relative Lib Dem vote. Or Average weekly AirBnB price.
Tory moderates look set to hold the whip hand in picking the next party leader if the Conservatives lose the election, Times analysis suggests.
MPs from the One Nation wing of the party are likely to remain the largest faction in parliament after the election. Of the 169 seats the party is forecast to retain in a recent YouGov MRP megapoll, the One Nation caucus retains 50 members.
Meanwhile, only 23 of the more than 60 MPs who backed amendments to toughen Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill are forecast to remain in parliament. The figure rises to 32 when accounting for those known to support the Common Sense Group or New Conservatives factions on the party’s right. But they are still likely to remain outnumbered by One Nationers and other MPs not aligned to the right.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
And Reform only on 8%. Even using Telegraph-style dodgy electoral maths, Labour have a lead of 19ppts.
Keir Starmer must be the luckiest Labour leader in history. One wonders how well he would be doing if the Tories had somebody like David Cameron leading them.
If the Tories today were offering us persons comparable to Major, Heseltine, Clarke, Rifkind, Howard, Shepherd, Bottomley, Willets, Waldegrave. Yes, even maybe people like Portillo and Dorrell. Agree or disagree with their politics, they ran a broadly competent administration in more than challenging times, and set the stage for the next administration. The polls showed that most people recognized that, but that they'd had enough of the Tories (especially the in-fighting).
I'm not sure "Cameron as Leader" would be as successful as "Cameron as Foreign Secretary" and certainly not as successful as the cabinet on May 1st 1997.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
I expect a Labour landslide. I don't expect a Tory wipe out. Why? Well I expect Labour to do very well and possibly too well in the LD/Tory seats. And for a Tory wipe out the LDs have to take a lot of these seats. On the LDs current poll ratings I expect them to take the obvious LD targets but I can see in the rest Labour piling up votes instead of the LDs taking the seats.
I hope I am wrong. I would like to see a Tory wipe out, not because I am anti Tory (I would have been just as happy to see it happen to Labour under similar circumstances), but because I would like to see a realignment of our politics rather than the same old same old.
I chatted to a LibDem organiser in Didcot and Wantage, the seat where I currently spend much of my time. He said they were trying to "persuade" Electoral Calculus to change their forecast for the seat, which is a Labour gain. I've corresponded with EC about this - they say they already feed into the model that it's a LibDem target seat and doesn't yet have a Labour candidate but it's still showing up as Labour ahead.
It's hard for polling to take account of the details on the ground. D&W has had massive boundary changes, losing 15K rural voters. Labour was locally in disarray last year and only put up 12 candidates for borough and town seats - all of them won but the LibDems cleaned up everywhere else. That's changed quite dramatically, with the CLP sorted out, a major Labour effort kicking off next week, a paid organiser and a very large budget. We're expecting something like the mid-Beds pattern here, whereas in some of the Surrey seats the position is very different and Labour is often not being especially active.
IMO the LIbDems do need to concentrate on their top 10-20 targets (rather than the 20-40 that I believe they are currently spreading their resources). Their national polling is down on 2019 and their best shot is cannibalising Labour and Green votes in seats where those parties aren't trying very hard (which is often quite random, depending on local individuals). If they spread themselves too thinly they may not gain very many seats at all.
They will net more by concentrating on the top 10-20, IMHO. Not just by winning a greater percentage of those, but because a huge concentration of effort is more nationally visible than a smear of too little butter over too much bread.
Just in the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
Just is the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
The US has one of the lowest percentages of imports to GDP in the world. It's not bizarre for people to think that policies aimed at lowering the cost of energy would have more impact on prices than a tariff.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
He also promotes the 'theory' that HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Anyone know if he really believes this shit, or is he just a scammer?
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
You can read the books written by Leon VIth.
Just did mine.
Moderately vs Very Active make 10 years difference. BMI 25 vs 29 makes very little difference.
Just in the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
And it's not just the tariffs, the voters are mad about the cost of food and at the same time as putting a 10% tax on imports of food and fertilizer, he wants to deport much of the agricultural workforce.
Just is the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
The US has one of the lowest percentages of imports to GDP in the world. It's not bizarre for people to think that policies aimed at lowering the cost of energy would have more impact on prices than a tariff.
"Aimed at" Also a fine example of begging the question.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Just is the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
The US has one of the lowest percentages of imports to GDP in the world. It's not bizarre for people to think that policies aimed at lowering the cost of energy would have more impact on prices than a tariff.
"Aimed at" Also a fine example of begging the question.
There's a reason that Trump is using the slogan "drill, baby, drill".
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
He also promotes the 'theory' that HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Anyone know if he really believes this shit, or is he just a scammer?
It's probably not about the facts but about his identity and getting attention.
Thus rebutting with facts won't work: you'll just reinforce the conspiracy.
Just is the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
The US has one of the lowest percentages of imports to GDP in the world. It's not bizarre for people to think that policies aimed at lowering the cost of energy would have more impact on prices than a tariff.
"Aimed at" Also a fine example of begging the question.
There's a reason that Trump is using the slogan "drill, baby, drill".
You do realise that US oil and gas production is at an all time high ?
Two essential questions for the election are 'What is to be done?' and 'Who is going to do it?'.
The electorate seemed to have answered the second while ignoring the first.
I don't think the first is being ignored at all; but the majority of voters think the 'what is to be done' is going to be about competence, incrementalism and quality of leadership. There are some but few votes for the 'quick fix' or simple solutions. We should be grateful for this and that Labour is resisting ultra populism.
Also most voters vote for competence and the basic vision of who they vote for. We have government and parliament exactly so that the voter does not have to answer all the questions him or herself.
Wearing a Kim Jong-Un-style tunic, Dmitry Medvedev says "Ukraine is definitely Russia" and shows off a map of what he thinks should be left of Ukraine. Spoiler: not much!
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
The most interesting bit of Alastair's piece was this: ...At the upper bound of what we can reasonably currently expect, we are looking at something close to a one party Parliament the like of which has not been seen before in Britain. I do not think that government, MPs, the media or the public have begun to absorb this. It’s about time that they did.
Unlikely, perhaps. But it's far from impossible.
It is far from impossible, in fact it is impossible unless the Northern Irish parties, PC and SNP all decide to merge with the Labour Party. Even if you only include England, a 100% Tory wipeout will mean some seats going to the LDs.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
It is, I had a friend also fall down the antivax rabbit hole which leads to other conspiracy theories. Like Bridgen his kids were a distant thought in his mind.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
He also promotes the 'theory' that HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Anyone know if he really believes this shit, or is he just a scammer?
It's probably not about the facts but about his identity and getting attention.
Thus rebutting with facts won't work: you'll just reinforce the conspiracy.
I have several friends who are more or less antivax, and like you say, trying to point them in the direction of facts is a waste of time. But undermining their faith in their antivax sources might not be. People I know might be convinced that MMR causes autism, but the idea that HIV doesn't cause AIDS seems to be a step too far.
Maybe it's a generational thing - people like me who were teenagers in the 80s we took it very seriously. Don't die of ignorance! We'd sleep around, but never have unprotected sex. At least not until we were some way into a committed relationship and both had negative HIV tests.
I say things like 'I had a look at that article you pointed me too, it was pretty interesting. I definitely agree we can't trust the big pharmaceutical companies, but are you sure you can trust that website? I found stuff on there saying AIDS isn't caused by HIV...'
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
It is, I had a friend also fall down the antivax rabbit hole which leads to other conspiracy theories. Like Bridgen his kids were a distant thought in his mind.
I have a friend who refused to get her daughter vaccinated against measles. Regrets it bitterly now. Her daughter caught measles and almost lost her hearing completely. She has had to use a hearing aid since she was a kid.
In Germany it's now compulsory to get your children vaccinated against measles.
Just in the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
Nothing bizarre about it when the starting point is a third of the country view Trump almost like a messiah. They think he can make anything better and don't bother themselves with interfering in or understanding the mechanics.
Major banks have called for a crackdown on Apple over claims the tech giant’s access to millions of iPhone users’ transactions will give it an unfair advantage as it pushes further into financial services.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)’s Practitioner Panel, consisting of bank and insurance executives, has written to the regulator saying there are “multiple imbalances” in how tech giants can gather and use consumer spending data.
The letter, signed by Barclays’ UK chief executive Matt Hammerstein, specifically references Apple and Amazon, warning that there is a “pressing need” to address their access to data.
It says that Apple, which allows customers to connect their bank accounts to their iPhone’s Wallet app, will account for the majority of activity in open banking – a system paid for by major banks – by the end of this year.
It also raises concerns over Amazon and how its wealth of data on shopping habits could also give the company an advantage.
“Consistent access to information across competitors is essential for fairness in the market,” the letter said. “The ability of big tech to access private and public retail data and combine it with AI and advanced analytics may create the conditions for market dominance.
“While we have no doubt that big tech often does deliver good experiences and outcomes for their customers, they are under no obligation to do so, let alone demonstrate that, while big tech obtains these data privileges for free and have no obligations on how it is used.”
The FCA is investigating whether big tech companies enjoy unfair access to customers’ data in a way that could make them dominant in the market. It expects to report on a “call for input” by the summer.
Last year, Apple began allowing iPhone users to see their bank account transactions and balances through the Wallet app, taking advantage of the open banking protocol pushed through by regulators that allows bank accounts to be linked to other apps.
It came after the company bought UK fintech start-up Credit Kudos for a reported $150m (£119m) in 2022.
Open banking access requires authorisation by the FCA.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
Something similar on the other side of the Thames.
And those areas (Havering on the Essex side, Bromley/Bexley on the Kent side) are the bits of London that are most prone to getting cross at being lumped in with London. And where most of the residual Conservative popularity is.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
It is, I had a friend also fall down the antivax rabbit hole which leads to other conspiracy theories. Like Bridgen his kids were a distant thought in his mind.
I have a friend who refused to get her daughter vaccinated against measles. Regrets it bitterly now. Her daughter caught measles and almost lost her hearing completely. She has had to use a hearing aid since she was a kid.
In Germany it's now compulsory to get your children vaccinated against measles.
The irony is that measles - alongside very serious or even fatal effects in a minority of cases - also has the effect of destroying much immune memory. Thus wiping out a significant portion of the 'natural immunity' that vaccine sceptics rely on.
I expect a Labour landslide. I don't expect a Tory wipe out. Why? Well I expect Labour to do very well and possibly too well in the LD/Tory seats. And for a Tory wipe out the LDs have to take a lot of these seats. On the LDs current poll ratings I expect them to take the obvious LD targets but I can see in the rest Labour piling up votes instead of the LDs taking the seats.
I hope I am wrong. I would like to see a Tory wipe out, not because I am anti Tory (I would have been just as happy to see it happen to Labour under similar circumstances), but because I would like to see a realignment of our politics rather than the same old same old.
I chatted to a LibDem organiser in Didcot and Wantage, the seat where I currently spend much of my time. He said they were trying to "persuade" Electoral Calculus to change their forecast for the seat, which is a Labour gain. I've corresponded with EC about this - they say they already feed into the model that it's a LibDem target seat and doesn't yet have a Labour candidate but it's still showing up as Labour ahead.
It's hard for polling to take account of the details on the ground. D&W has had massive boundary changes, losing 15K rural voters. Labour was locally in disarray last year and only put up 12 candidates for borough and town seats - all of them won but the LibDems cleaned up everywhere else. That's changed quite dramatically, with the CLP sorted out, a major Labour effort kicking off next week, a paid organiser and a very large budget. We're expecting something like the mid-Beds pattern here, whereas in some of the Surrey seats the position is very different and Labour is often not being especially active.
IMO the LIbDems do need to concentrate on their top 10-20 targets (rather than the 20-40 that I believe they are currently spreading their resources). Their national polling is down on 2019 and their best shot is cannibalising Labour and Green votes in seats where those parties aren't trying very hard (which is often quite random, depending on local individuals). If they spread themselves too thinly they may not gain very many seats at all.
In South Leicestershire a strong Conservative seat where boundary changes have taken a Labour area of Leicester out in exchange for Lib Dem voting, at least in the locals, rural villages. Labour haven't selected a candidate where as the Lib Dem is leafletting and door knocking already. How many seats are Labour still without a candidate?
Apple has been fined €1.8bn (£1.5bn) by the EU after an investigation into restrictions imposed by its App Store on music streaming providers such as Spotify.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, imposed the punishment after finding the iPhone maker had broken competition law by imposing curbs on app developers.
The investigation, launched following a complaint from Spotify, focused on a restriction that prevented developers from telling iPhone and iPad users about alternative ways of subscribing to their music streaming services, which bypass Apple.
Spotify has argued that the restrictions benefit Apple’s rival music streaming service, Apple Music.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
There's less of a non-commutable hinterland here - realistically only the bits of Kent East of Ashford, and the far South coast - so presumably a higher proportion of graduate in-migration comes from elsewhere. But our inaccessibility to my family is definitely an issue, despite being quite close to the Blackwall tunnel. It possibly means fewer young in-migrants full stop and may explain why property is relatively cheap by London standards.
There's always movement in the other direction but it's 2-phase: youngsters moving to London or burbs at start of career, then moving back out into the commuter belt afterwards. So West country newcomers might move to somewhere on the District or SW Northern Line to start with, then move out into Surrey or Hampshire once they have children. They may even move all the way back to the West Country.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Well, it certainly doesn't have the cheeriest start for a Monday morning.
I did the Death Clock (I'm on a bus from Ban Phe to Bangkok and have run out of stuff to read so I'm relying on my Dtac data to keep me amused)
Bloody hell, it reckons I'm going to live to 103. That's 44 years, more than my whole adult life so far. What on earth am going to do to keep myself amused?
91 years for me. Which I'd be happy with, as long as I remain relatively sane and healthy until then. Otherwise, let the reaper come early.
There should be a metric for quality of life in the elderly: those I know vary from waiting for God, to living very mentally, if not physically, active lives.
EQ-5D is widely used, including in healthcare funding decisions - not only for elderly. It doesn't capture everything, but is fairly useful. There are plenty of alternatives, too.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
It is, I had a friend also fall down the antivax rabbit hole which leads to other conspiracy theories. Like Bridgen his kids were a distant thought in his mind.
I have a friend who refused to get her daughter vaccinated against measles. Regrets it bitterly now. Her daughter caught measles and almost lost her hearing completely. She has had to use a hearing aid since she was a kid.
In Germany it's now compulsory to get your children vaccinated against measles.
My late mother qualified as a pharmacist in 1929. Around the time of her 90th birthday she was asked whether pharmacy was better then than now. She told the questioner very firmly that after qualifying she’d worked in East London ‘and dozens of children died from diphtheria and the like. Of course it’s better now!”
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
Just in the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
Nothing bizarre about it when the starting point is a third of the country view Trump almost like a messiah. They think he can make anything better and don't bother themselves with interfering in or understanding the mechanics.
Really ?
Even more bizarre that has become normalised among those who don't share the delusion.
Plug the Ipsos poll into Electoral Calculus and the seats tally predicted is LAB 537 LDM 47 CON 25 SNP 18 How many select committees are there? Would they struggle to find opposition MPs for all of them?
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
Something similar on the other side of the Thames.
And those areas (Havering on the Essex side, Bromley/Bexley on the Kent side) are the bits of London that are most prone to getting cross at being lumped in with London. And where most of the residual Conservative popularity is.
Wonder how the mechanism works?
I think Essex is similar to Kent in that there's little deep hinterland. If you grow up in Essex then get a London job you probably just stay living in Essex. I suppose Norfolk is a sort of hinterland but not many people live there.
The East End is accessible enough to the North Circular and M1/A1 that I think it probably counts as North London from an accessibility perspective. As easy to get to Peterborough or even York from Shoreditch as it is from somewhere like West Hampstead. Whereas the Thames makes SE London much less visiting-parent-friendly.
Plug the Ipsos poll into Electoral Calculus and the seats tally predicted is LAB 537 LDM 47 CON 25 SNP 18 How many select committees are there? Would they struggle to find opposition MPs for all of them?
Why is this fake hippo lemonade stand so weirdly significant in its hippo-ness?
It’s an Esco-bar.
Very good. Not only spot on but droll
I’m staying in a wild eco-lodge about 20 minutes from Pablo Escobar’s notorious cocaine palace, where he had his own private zoo with zebras and giraffes - and hippos
Despite being so infamous (he occasionally drowned rivals in his pool or ran them over for fun in the yard) it has now been turned into a kids’ theme park, and Escobar’s hippos - the feral descendants of which run wild hereabouts, you can see them - have become a local motif. That hippo coffee stand is actually at the entrance to Escobar’s estate
Just in the context of Trump's plans for a broad 10% tariff on imports, this is utterly bizarre.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen. https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
Nothing bizarre about it when the starting point is a third of the country view Trump almost like a messiah. They think he can make anything better and don't bother themselves with interfering in or understanding the mechanics.
Really ?
Even more bizarre that has become normalised among those who don't share the delusion.
If you take the third of cultists out of the table it looks like:
Go up: Biden 55% Trump 51% Go down: Biden 17% Trump 16% No effect: Biden 27% Trump 33%
Virtually the same and likely differences based on personal financial experience under each Presidency rather than analysis of future policies.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
Something similar on the other side of the Thames.
And those areas (Havering on the Essex side, Bromley/Bexley on the Kent side) are the bits of London that are most prone to getting cross at being lumped in with London. And where most of the residual Conservative popularity is.
Wonder how the mechanism works?
I think Essex is similar to Kent in that there's little deep hinterland. If you grow up in Essex then get a London job you probably just stay living in Essex. I suppose Norfolk is a sort of hinterland but not many people live there.
The East End is accessible enough to the North Circular and M1/A1 that I think it probably counts as North London from an accessibility perspective. As easy to get to Peterborough or even York from Shoreditch as it is from somewhere like West Hampstead. Whereas the Thames makes SE London much less visiting-parent-friendly.
My parents and my in laws both live sufficiently far from London that the time spent crossing to North London isn't much of a factor in the overall journey - especially as we always leave around 5am if we're driving north, to avoid the traffic. If we're taking the train we're quite well connected and can quickly and easily get to King's Cross, or Euston for the sleeper.
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
Of course it's reasonable. That's why there is a regime of post approval safety monitoring - which is why we are able to detect serious adverse effects which occurred even very rarely.
I don't think anyone argues that vaccines are either cost free or entirely risk free. But all the evidence is that the Covid vaccines' benefits hugely outweighed the costs.
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Polio is caused by the poliovirus. We’ve known this for over a century.
Scientists did not release COVID-19. It jumped into humans via a zoonotic event. All the evidence points to this.
RFKjr. is a loon. Anti-vax is a hugely damaging conspiracy theory. There’s currently a serious measles outbreak in the UK because of this nonsense.
Plug the Ipsos poll into Electoral Calculus and the seats tally predicted is LAB 537 LDM 47 CON 25 SNP 18 How many select committees are there? Would they struggle to find opposition MPs for all of them?
It's like watching an incredibly one sided boxing match. Whoever you were supporting at the start you just want the losing fighter to throw in the towel at a certain point.
Sunak is the losing fighter asking for another round (Autumn election) hoping that somehow he'll turn things around to a draw, against all odds.
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
This is the kind of thing I'd have dreamed of doing when I was a kid. Perhaps an option for retirement, if my wife leaves me!
The British version would shuttling to and from Scunthorpe to Liverpool*, washing in the station toilets and surviving on newsagent sandwiches. And it would cost more.
*Bathgate to Glasgow Queen St also available for added Union dividends.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
He also promotes the 'theory' that HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Anyone know if he really believes this shit, or is he just a scammer?
It's probably not about the facts but about his identity and getting attention.
Thus rebutting with facts won't work: you'll just reinforce the conspiracy.
I have several friends who are more or less antivax, and like you say, trying to point them in the direction of facts is a waste of time. But undermining their faith in their antivax sources might not be. People I know might be convinced that MMR causes autism, but the idea that HIV doesn't cause AIDS seems to be a step too far.
Maybe it's a generational thing - people like me who were teenagers in the 80s we took it very seriously. Don't die of ignorance! We'd sleep around, but never have unprotected sex. At least not until we were some way into a committed relationship and both had negative HIV tests.
I say things like 'I had a look at that article you pointed me too, it was pretty interesting. I definitely agree we can't trust the big pharmaceutical companies, but are you sure you can trust that website? I found stuff on there saying AIDS isn't caused by HIV...'
I was and still am terrified by HIV and AIDS.
What you absorb between the ages of 8-16 years old can shape you for life.
Yes, IMO the LibDems are doing very well in Surrey, much better than in the seats on the northern side of London for some reason. I was CLP chair in Hunt's seat and know the position well - the LibDems have a very high-profile candidate who is all over social media.
One theory I have for that is the compass effect of migration patterns: people leaving home (often after university) typically move to the part of London facing their parents' home. So if you're from the West country you move to West and SW London for easy access to the M3, M4 and Great Western line (hence why most of the rugby clubs in the capital are in that area). If you're from the North you move to North London, Midlands somewhere on the West Coast or Chiltern lines and so on.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
Does that work in SE London, which faces only Kent and East Sussex? Most of the people I know in my neighbourhood are from outside London, but I don't think any are from Kent. Population movement tends to be in the opposite direction!
Something similar on the other side of the Thames.
And those areas (Havering on the Essex side, Bromley/Bexley on the Kent side) are the bits of London that are most prone to getting cross at being lumped in with London. And where most of the residual Conservative popularity is.
Wonder how the mechanism works?
Relatively large numbers of older WWC voters. Often moved to outer London from inner London, coinciding with immigration inflows to those areas. No longer recognise their old neighbourhoods. Fearful as they see established immigrant communities making the same journey out of inner London to their new neighbourhoods. Think London has changed for the worse. The local economy no longer caters to their tastes or needs. They feel patronised by middle class incomers. There's no affordable or social housing for their kids, who've moved to Essex and Kent. Sadiq Khan personifies everything they hate about modern London. Does this cover it?
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught. https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
I'm not disputing your point about RFK, and I have no way of knowing whether there's any merit in the passage you've posted - or whether you're endorsing the passage or condemning it.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Because there is no evidence for your assertions about the origin or course of the Covid epidemic. At best it is an opinion, and not one with much factual collateral.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be cautious about a new vaccine, developed at huge and unprecedented pace, in the face of a global pandemic.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
That might have been a fair position to take 2 years ago, but today? Millions upon millions of people have had COVID-19 jabs. We’re not lacking data now.
Yes, it was a position I initially took (as recorded here). But after doing a bit of research, I quickly came to the conclusion that it would almost certainly be safer to take the vaccine than not to do so. Scepticism is a good thing, but when you refuse to listen to the answers it becomes denial.
Comments
The problem with the argument that no PM in his right mind would call an election in May when he’s 27 points behind is that it’s based on the (rational in normal times) assumption that “things can only get better.”
I’d argue that fundamentally misunderstands the last 3-5 years.
For Rishi Sunak, things can and will get worse. Probably this week.
One of the reasons the polio vaccine doesn’t work is because polio isn’t caused by an infectious virus. It’s caused by toxins. Poliovirus is a commensal virus that is completely harmless in the absence of toxic onslaught.
https://twitter.com/ChildrensHD/status/1763738493933756779
The man is downright evil.
Much mockery at the Tory winter ball last week of Sir Keir Starmer U-turning on his pledge to splurge £28 billion a year on green projects.
Lord Leigh, a party treasurer, said: 'Starmer is barred from bidding.
He normally starts at £28 billion, then goes to £5 billion, before offering £20 and some luncheon vouchers.'
But further down, we find:-
Anderson's row with Khan overshadowed Rishi Sunak's announcement last week that the money saved by scrapping HS2's northern link will fund enhanced transport connections in the North and the Midlands.
Maybe Anderson did Sunak a favour. The first time the PM announced the scheme at the Tory conference, the spend was £36 billion. Last week it was £4.7 billion.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13152433/ANDREW-PIERCE-Tory-MPs-handed-profile-Candidate-X-save-party-electoral-catastrophe.html
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)’s Practitioner Panel, consisting of bank and insurance executives, has written to the regulator saying there are “multiple imbalances” in how tech giants can gather and use consumer spending data.
The letter, signed by Barclays’ UK chief executive Matt Hammerstein, specifically references Apple and Amazon, warning that there is a “pressing need” to address their access to data.
It says that Apple, which allows customers to connect their bank accounts to their iPhone’s Wallet app, will account for the majority of activity in open banking – a system paid for by major banks – by the end of this year.
It also raises concerns over Amazon and how its wealth of data on shopping habits could also give the company an advantage.
“Consistent access to information across competitors is essential for fairness in the market,” the letter said. “The ability of big tech to access private and public retail data and combine it with AI and advanced analytics may create the conditions for market dominance.
“While we have no doubt that big tech often does deliver good experiences and outcomes for their customers, they are under no obligation to do so, let alone demonstrate that, while big tech obtains these data privileges for free and have no obligations on how it is used.”
The FCA is investigating whether big tech companies enjoy unfair access to customers’ data in a way that could make them dominant in the market. It expects to report on a “call for input” by the summer.
Last year, Apple began allowing iPhone users to see their bank account transactions and balances through the Wallet app, taking advantage of the open banking protocol pushed through by regulators that allows bank accounts to be linked to other apps.
It came after the company bought UK fintech start-up Credit Kudos for a reported $150m (£119m) in 2022.
Open banking access requires authorisation by the FCA.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/03/banks-call-crackdown-apple-claims-stockpiles-uk-spend-data/
As I keep saying, the longer Sunak clings to No10 the worse the rout is likely to be
Even amongst the little leaguers I have seen close up, you can only get somewhere in politics if you can mute the voice that says "you're going to lose".
Has Reform UK closed door on Lee?
Will Lee Anderson, suspended by the Tories over his attack on London mayor Sadiq Khan, defect to Reform UK?
Anderson has had one meeting with party leader Richard Tice, but his co-deputy, Ben Habib, isn't so keen on the straight-talking Ashfield MP.
He said: 'I would be quite circumspect about anyone who can't express themselves accurately, clearly and in matters of great sensitivity... Lee clearly hasn't got a grasp, in my view, of the language required to identify and address the problem.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13152433/ANDREW-PIERCE-Tory-MPs-handed-profile-Candidate-X-save-party-electoral-catastrophe.html
It's hard for polling to take account of the details on the ground. D&W has had massive boundary changes, losing 15K rural voters. Labour was locally in disarray last year and only put up 12 candidates for borough and town seats - all of them won but the LibDems cleaned up everywhere else. That's changed quite dramatically, with the CLP sorted out, a major Labour effort kicking off next week, a paid organiser and a very large budget. We're expecting something like the mid-Beds pattern here, whereas in some of the Surrey seats the position is very different and Labour is often not being especially active.
IMO the LIbDems do need to concentrate on their top 10-20 targets (rather than the 20-40 that I believe they are currently spreading their resources). Their national polling is down on 2019 and their best shot is cannibalising Labour and Green votes in seats where those parties aren't trying very hard (which is often quite random, depending on local individuals). If they spread themselves too thinly they may not gain very many seats at all.
Lib Dem 35%
Tory 29%
Lab 23%
This is broadly consistent with MRPs showing the home counties are moving strongly away from the Tories.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1764268847614361705
If the Tories go full(er) tonto and SKS tries to be a tough guy then the election after* next could be good for LDs. But they'd need to find a message and maybe a new leader better able to deliver it.
*the next election might not be that bad in seats at least - depends whether LDs can position themselves as the clear tactical vote against Con in places where they are second or Lab come from third to take several of those.
ETA: Some similar points made by kjh earlier - there is probably a window where slightly smaller gap between Lab and Con delivers more LDs and fewer Cons by encouraging tactical voting.
That said the best thing for the Tory party and its media supporters to do would probably be to go silent on anything to do with immigration for a few months and allow people to forget about Reform, but they're not going to do that. Instead they're going to try to neutralise Reform by banging on about immigration, thereby achieving the precise opposite effect.
I hope there will be some informal understandings out there but the chances of that reduce if Labour looks like heading for a landslide. Less fear of the Tories squeaking through so less impetus to avoid them coming through the middle in competitive seats.
D&W is an interesting one. There does seem to be a pattern of Labour strength in rural and semi-rural areas with working/workaday towns, new build estates and reasonable transport connections. I think the LDs will do well in truly rural parts of the South West, and the cathedral cities. Plus the richest parts of the disillusioned commuter belt.
Pretty places = Lib Dem strength. I wonder if there's a useful correlation between number of AirBnB listings and relative Lib Dem vote. Or Average weekly AirBnB price.
MPs from the One Nation wing of the party are likely to remain the largest faction in parliament after the election. Of the 169 seats the party is forecast to retain in a recent YouGov MRP megapoll, the One Nation caucus retains 50 members.
Meanwhile, only 23 of the more than 60 MPs who backed amendments to toughen Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill are forecast to remain in parliament. The figure rises to 32 when accounting for those known to support the Common Sense Group or New Conservatives factions on the party’s right. But they are still likely to remain outnumbered by One Nationers and other MPs not aligned to the right.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-nation-tories-primed-for-power-after-next-election-7m5wvnk76
The opera singer Nevena Bridgen lived a glamorous life attending high-profile events and rubbing shoulders with prime ministers. But then, she says, her husband became ‘radicalised’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/my-mp-husband-andrew-bridgen-was-captured-by-antivax-cult-qnjn2dnbd#
I'm not sure "Cameron as Leader" would be as successful as "Cameron as Foreign Secretary" and certainly not as successful as the cabinet on May 1st 1997.
The electorate seemed to have answered the second while ignoring the first.
So the electorate in Surrey and Hampshire is more likely to have family in old areas of the Liberal voting West Country.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen.
https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1764300423479939225
I’ve seen similar.
Just did mine.
Moderately vs Very Active make 10 years difference.
BMI 25 vs 29 makes very little difference.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question
Aka logic founded on unproven premises.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/04/how-keir-starmer-hopes-to-make-brexit-work
Also a fine example of begging the question.
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
Lowest Tory % ever recorded in an Ipsos poll going back to the start of their regular polling in 1978.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228
Thus rebutting with facts won't work: you'll just reinforce the conspiracy.
Also most voters vote for competence and the basic vision of who they vote for. We have government and parliament exactly so that the voter does not have to answer all the questions him or herself.
"Our geostrategic space has been indivisible since the time of the ancient Russian state," he says.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1764598144497512613
Setting aside the fact that this is ahistorical garbage, it doesn't leave much space for peace negotiation.
Maybe it's a generational thing - people like me who were teenagers in the 80s we took it very seriously. Don't die of ignorance! We'd sleep around, but never have unprotected sex. At least not until we were some way into a committed relationship and both had negative HIV tests.
I say things like 'I had a look at that article you pointed me too, it was pretty interesting. I definitely agree we can't trust the big pharmaceutical companies, but are you sure you can trust that website? I found stuff on there saying AIDS isn't caused by HIV...'
Surely programmers should have blooming learned by now, not to use two-digit year dates in databases?
In Germany it's now compulsory to get your children vaccinated against measles.
And Conservatives plus Reform only 28% - they are in real trouble.
And there have been cases of side-effects to varying degrees. Is the disease likely worse yes of course but it is entirely legitimate to have concerns about a rapidly-developed new vaccine. Especially as it was a condition of living your life "normally" in the UK and elsewhere.
All vaccines I suppose have to be new at some point but that doesn't mean we oughtn't to be cautious about them.
The whole WORLD is on a death clock
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/are-we-ready-for-pdoom/
And those areas (Havering on the Essex side, Bromley/Bexley on the Kent side) are the bits of London that are most prone to getting cross at being lumped in with London. And where most of the residual Conservative popularity is.
Wonder how the mechanism works?
Thus wiping out a significant portion of the 'natural immunity' that vaccine sceptics rely on.
Apple has been fined €1.8bn (£1.5bn) by the EU after an investigation into restrictions imposed by its App Store on music streaming providers such as Spotify.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, imposed the punishment after finding the iPhone maker had broken competition law by imposing curbs on app developers.
The investigation, launched following a complaint from Spotify, focused on a restriction that prevented developers from telling iPhone and iPad users about alternative ways of subscribing to their music streaming services, which bypass Apple.
Spotify has argued that the restrictions benefit Apple’s rival music streaming service, Apple Music.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/04/eu-fines-apple-18bn-over-app-store-restrictions-on-music-streaming
There's always movement in the other direction but it's 2-phase: youngsters moving to London or burbs at start of career, then moving back out into the commuter belt afterwards. So West country newcomers might move to somewhere on the District or SW Northern Line to start with, then move out into Surrey or Hampshire once they have children. They may even move all the way back to the West Country.
However, I would note that you've never used the phrase 'downright evil' about the scientists who released Covid into the world, killing 7 million people, or the authorities who authorised them to do so. There's a certain type of PBer who can't see an authority without wishing to be identified with it, nor an anti-authority figure without reflexively spitting bile at them.
Why is this fake hippo lemonade stand so weirdly significant in its hippo-ness?
I spend £8,500 a year to live on a train
Uch. TRAINS. They’re a necessary evil in many of our lives. Horrible big tin cans full of smelly people that never turn up on time and make you late for everything. The less time spent on them the better. At least for most of us in the UK, anyway.
Not so for digital nomad Lasse Stolley. This German teenager can’t get enough of them. He’s not a trainspotter, though. He’s more of a trainsquatter.
Okay, ‘squatter’ isn’t really accurate. While the 17-year-old does indeed live on trains, he does so entirely legally. And with a surprising amount of comfort.
Lasse travels 600 miles a day throughout Germany aboard Deutsche Bahn trains. He travels first class, sleeps on night trains, has breakfast in DB lounges and takes showers in public swimming pools and leisure centres, all using his unlimited annual railcard.
https://metro.co.uk/2024/03/03/spend-8-500-a-year-live-a-train-20388001/
Even more bizarre that has become normalised among those who don't share the delusion.
LAB 537
LDM 47
CON 25
SNP 18
How many select committees are there? Would they struggle to find opposition MPs for all of them?
The East End is accessible enough to the North Circular and M1/A1 that I think it probably counts as North London from an accessibility perspective. As easy to get to Peterborough or even York from Shoreditch as it is from somewhere like West Hampstead. Whereas the Thames makes SE London much less visiting-parent-friendly.
I’m staying in a wild eco-lodge about 20 minutes from Pablo Escobar’s notorious cocaine palace, where he had his own private zoo with zebras and giraffes - and hippos
Despite being so infamous (he occasionally drowned rivals in his pool or ran them over for fun in the yard) it has now been turned into a kids’ theme park, and Escobar’s hippos - the feral descendants of which run wild hereabouts, you can see them - have become a local motif. That hippo coffee stand is actually at the entrance to Escobar’s estate
Land of the Cocaine Hippos
I love it
Go up: Biden 55% Trump 51%
Go down: Biden 17% Trump 16%
No effect: Biden 27% Trump 33%
Virtually the same and likely differences based on personal financial experience under each Presidency rather than analysis of future policies.
That's why there is a regime of post approval safety monitoring - which is why we are able to detect serious adverse effects which occurred even very rarely.
I don't think anyone argues that vaccines are either cost free or entirely risk free. But all the evidence is that the Covid vaccines' benefits hugely outweighed the costs.
It's an outrage.
Scientists did not release COVID-19. It jumped into humans via a zoonotic event. All the evidence points to this.
RFKjr. is a loon. Anti-vax is a hugely damaging conspiracy theory. There’s currently a serious measles outbreak in the UK because of this nonsense.
Sunak is the losing fighter asking for another round (Autumn election) hoping that somehow he'll turn things around to a draw, against all odds.
But there’s no evidence for this, is there?
*Bathgate to Glasgow Queen St also available for added Union dividends.
Theft and violence against workers in convenience stores across Britain have soared to record levels, according to new data.
About 5.6mn incidents of theft were recorded in 2023, more than a fivefold increase from the previous record of 1.1mn set in 2022, according to a report by the Association of Convenience Stores published on Monday.
What you absorb between the ages of 8-16 years old can shape you for life.
There are some slightly famous people gathering here. They are not pictured