Today’s front pages – politicalbetting.com

Sandpit said:

bondegezou said:

148grss said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

That isn't what that video says to any sane person

Now, don't get me wrong,. every person in that queue deserves free dental care, that is our national policy, that is their right. And dentistry in the UK has been SHITE for decades, and getting worse (I get all mine in Bangkok)

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue (compared to national average) does suggest that part of the problem with our NHS (and much else) is the fact we are allowing in immigrants at an historically unprecedented rate - 1.3m in two years, more, per capita, than ever entered the USA - and that is going to fuck up a free heath service, and much else, unless the economy explodes with growth (which it has not done)

Of course, much of the blame lies with the Tories, they've been in power 14 years and demonstrably screwed this up. Fie on them

It demonstrates a longstanding truth, that NHS services are worse in poorer areas. The paucity of the services owes nothing to immigration and everything to a government policy of underfunding the NHS and public services more broadly. Immigration is just the convenient excuse Tory stooges wheel out to cover for the government's failings, lapped up by the week minded.

Do you really honestly believe that adding 10m people to our population, in a few short years - an influx so vast it is greater (per capita) than America experienced during the era of Ellis Island - has NOT put pressure on our NHS, infra, sewage, education, etc?

I mean, to me this is so ridiculous it is not debatable. It is blindingly obvious. But if you demur I'm kinda impressed

Of course, if the government chooses not to fund the necessary expansion of public services. But that is a choice.

And what if the government literally can't afford to fund this necessary expansion. What then? The obvious answer is: end immigration

Would you agree with that?

Even if we accept your premise (I don't) the question is a) how and b) how much does that cost?

If you end immigration we have to increase spending on borders and visa checks and policing people who do and don't have documentation. We have to have more raids and deportations and such. All this requires infrastructure, training, staff, legal battles, boats etc. that the state does not currently have.

Whereas, again, the government could spend more on infrastructure that benefits everyone (including immigrants) and do some Keynesian economics at the same time. But the government doesn't want to do that because it is wedded to austerity and only the private sector being able to deliver things.

Whether it's a new Garden City somewhere or appropriate developments on the edges of existing urban areas - I think we both agree new development wouldn't be bad. It's just that the governments answer to new development will be "let a private company do it and build loads of 4-5 bedroom houses that only well off people can afford, as well as a few luxury flats, and let them be overpriced and sold to landlords or investment companies and therefore not alleviate the pressure on the market at all". And that won't solve the underlying issues of rent and house prices being too high. We need council housing to create a base line of affordable homes of acceptable quality.

I don't see why a shift in immigration policy to, say, cut the current immigration numbers by 80% would require any significant change in spending on borders and visa checks. We already spend on those. If the government wanted, they could just give out fewer visas.

There are other reasons why that might not be a good idea. I work in the university sector and we'd be f****d if there was a large drop in overseas student numbers.

If the universities want to attract more foreign students, then perhaps they should be building somewhere for them to live?

We do. Well, my university does. See https://www.ucl.ac.uk/ucl-east/campus-facilities-and-build if you want pretty pictures.

RochdalePioneers said:

There is something missing in what @leon is saying.

The political set telling people that darkies are responsible for a lack of NHS dentistry are the same political set who continually cut funding to NHS dentistry.

The solution to a lack of NHS provision for dentists and GPs and hospital beds isn't less foreigners. Its more money spent on provision.

Where is the money coming from then, is it all those extra imaginary benefits that immigration brings in that it has transformed our economy in the last 25 years to a basket case.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Fifty weeks exactly to the next general election, 23rd January, 2025.

Who will be the Prime Minister on polling day...?

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

..

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

Suggesting that British born BAMEs aren’t really British is Goodwin’s latest slippery little trick. I suppose they’re an easy visible target towards which to direct the torch wielding mob.

"The Scots are as British as anyone," isn't your usual line.

We’re as British as any other person born in the UK. Polling suggests we don’t feel as strong an attachment to that identity as BAME folk, despite the best efforts of Goodwin and his fellow travellers to put them off.

Nicely delphic, especially the UK bit.

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

boulay said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

I didn't see you travelling down this path tbh. What does it matter what colour people are. Plus I've no idea whether your "stat" is true. I haven't yet come across a black Polish plumber or Romanian bricklayer or indeed Albanian chippie but I'm sure some exist.

Or are you feeling a bit besieged on PB atm and are doubling down.

I am merely saying that the video is - arguably - a visual representation of the pressure mass migration is putting on the UK's public services and infra. This is hardly a new point from me, I am hardly going off on a new Nazi tangent, am I? I expect you've heard me make the point before

And yet there are PB-ers who deny this is an issue. Who deny that mass migration might be at least part of the reason we see such pressure on UK health, education, sewage, roads, &c

See below

i do feel slightly beseiged, but I quite enjoy it (for now). With @Casino_Royale gone I am like the last redcoat in Zulu, the drunken malingerer in the sick bay turned hero, shooting up at the thatch as the lefty hordes overwhelm the Drift. Hooky. That was his name. Hooky. Got a VC didn't he?

The drunken malingerer thing was bullshit, incidentally. He was a lay Methodist preacher and an exemplary soldier, IIRC.

Also, IIRC, his descendants protested at his portrayal

Great movie, tho. Really really great

I imagine it is barely showable now, as it is quite non-Woke

Apart from it being on woke Channel 4 at new year and on 4OD (maybe still is) it’s barely showable.

Yep. You can't get away from it. If you want to not watch it you have to make that a priority.

But if you change channel (to the only other channel), they are showing The Dam Busters on a loop. With the name of the dog* unbleeped.

*Dog not included for scale.

Time for a good book then, preferably one without any 'heroic' war nonsense. Eg I'm into a Japanese magical realist epic atm. I pick it up whenever I'm tempted to do something reprehensible.

Or fire up The Cruel Sea.

"Snorkers! Good oh!"

Train smash as it was known to my father, albeit when served with tomatoes.

Sandpit said:

Eabhal said:

Sandpit said:

bondegezou said:

148grss said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

That isn't what that video says to any sane person

Now, don't get me wrong,. every person in that queue deserves free dental care, that is our national policy, that is their right. And dentistry in the UK has been SHITE for decades, and getting worse (I get all mine in Bangkok)

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue (compared to national average) does suggest that part of the problem with our NHS (and much else) is the fact we are allowing in immigrants at an historically unprecedented rate - 1.3m in two years, more, per capita, than ever entered the USA - and that is going to fuck up a free heath service, and much else, unless the economy explodes with growth (which it has not done)

Of course, much of the blame lies with the Tories, they've been in power 14 years and demonstrably screwed this up. Fie on them

It demonstrates a longstanding truth, that NHS services are worse in poorer areas. The paucity of the services owes nothing to immigration and everything to a government policy of underfunding the NHS and public services more broadly. Immigration is just the convenient excuse Tory stooges wheel out to cover for the government's failings, lapped up by the week minded.

Do you really honestly believe that adding 10m people to our population, in a few short years - an influx so vast it is greater (per capita) than America experienced during the era of Ellis Island - has NOT put pressure on our NHS, infra, sewage, education, etc?

I mean, to me this is so ridiculous it is not debatable. It is blindingly obvious. But if you demur I'm kinda impressed

Of course, if the government chooses not to fund the necessary expansion of public services. But that is a choice.

And what if the government literally can't afford to fund this necessary expansion. What then? The obvious answer is: end immigration

Would you agree with that?

Even if we accept your premise (I don't) the question is a) how and b) how much does that cost?

If you end immigration we have to increase spending on borders and visa checks and policing people who do and don't have documentation. We have to have more raids and deportations and such. All this requires infrastructure, training, staff, legal battles, boats etc. that the state does not currently have.

Whereas, again, the government could spend more on infrastructure that benefits everyone (including immigrants) and do some Keynesian economics at the same time. But the government doesn't want to do that because it is wedded to austerity and only the private sector being able to deliver things.

Whether it's a new Garden City somewhere or appropriate developments on the edges of existing urban areas - I think we both agree new development wouldn't be bad. It's just that the governments answer to new development will be "let a private company do it and build loads of 4-5 bedroom houses that only well off people can afford, as well as a few luxury flats, and let them be overpriced and sold to landlords or investment companies and therefore not alleviate the pressure on the market at all". And that won't solve the underlying issues of rent and house prices being too high. We need council housing to create a base line of affordable homes of acceptable quality.

I don't see why a shift in immigration policy to, say, cut the current immigration numbers by 80% would require any significant change in spending on borders and visa checks. We already spend on those. If the government wanted, they could just give out fewer visas.

There are other reasons why that might not be a good idea. I work in the university sector and we'd be f****d if there was a large drop in overseas student numbers.

If the universities want to attract more foreign students, then perhaps they should be building somewhere for them to live?

They are doing, contributing to the housing crisis in university cities and towns. They are far more profitable for developers than standard flats, and they eat up what space is available.

The only way they’d be contributing to a crisis, is if the student numbers (including their dependents), are going up faster than the new housing. You need to tie the numbers together, so that it’s on the university to make sure they have enough accommodation for the numbers enrolling. Want more students, then first build more housing.

I think the current presumption is that capitalism works. Students need accommodation, so demand is increased, so supply will increase.

malcolmg said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There is something missing in what @leon is saying.

The political set telling people that darkies are responsible for a lack of NHS dentistry are the same political set who continually cut funding to NHS dentistry.

The solution to a lack of NHS provision for dentists and GPs and hospital beds isn't less foreigners. Its more money spent on provision.

Where is the money coming from then, is it all those extra imaginary benefits that immigration brings in that it has transformed our economy in the last 25 years to a basket case.

That Dutch report - linked earlier - on the enormous net drain of non western migrants, on an economy rather like ours (but healthier) makes for very sobering reading

And of course PB has completely ignored it. Too awkward

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

And spy the best. Not like this clown on the front page of The Times.

Revealed: suspected Russian spy ‘worked for MI6’ and Foreign Office
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-spy-uk-mi6-foreign-office-exclusive-investigation-bk59tq3s5 (£££)

Guy Burgess worked for MI6 and the Foreign Office* and was not even suspected until he disappeared. There's your Cambridge education right there.

*and MI5 and the BBC.

I’ll give PBers a second chance to contemplate it

‘A team led by mathematician Jan H. van de Beek at the University of Amsterdam estimates that the Dutch government spent approximately €17 billion per year on migration in the period between 1995 and 2019, meaning that more than one billion euros went to migration-related issues every month.

The study digs deeper still: annual net costs of non-Western immigration amount to €17 billion and the annual net benefits of Western immigration total one billion euros. Distinguishing between Western and non-Western migration patterns, the study comes to a startling conclusion: if immigration remains at 2015-2019 levels, the annual budget burden will increase from €17 billion in 2016 to about €50 billion. This is an increase that the welfare state would most likely not survive.

The Dutch findings are mirrored in a similar study conducted by the Danish Finance Ministry, which concludes that non-Western immigrants are most likely to remain lifelong recipients of public finances compared to their Western or native Danish peers. Meanwhile, the picture in Germany is not much different: about 45% of those who receive unemployment benefits are not German citizens, costing the taxpayers around €20 billion per year. Austria shows similar numbers, with almost 60% of recipients having a “migrant background”.

Van de Beek sees parts of the problem in the structure of the welfare state… [snip - see the link],

The emerging picture is a complex one that includes both cultural and economic factors, but the overall conclusion remains the same: the current conditions under which migration to Europe takes place are not sustainable and will bring the welfare systems ever closer to collapsing. The idea promoted by Folkerts-Landau and others turned out to be far too optimistic, and what makes matters worse is that politicians still refuse to face the facts.

Placing one’s head in the sand is, unfortunately, not the same as actual policymaking. Europe has ignored these issues for too long, and voters will make their discontent heard at the voting booth’

https://unherd.com/thepost/dutch-study-immigration-costs-state-e17-billion-per-year/

Sandpit said:

Eabhal said:

Sandpit said:

bondegezou said:

148grss said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

That isn't what that video says to any sane person

Now, don't get me wrong,. every person in that queue deserves free dental care, that is our national policy, that is their right. And dentistry in the UK has been SHITE for decades, and getting worse (I get all mine in Bangkok)

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue (compared to national average) does suggest that part of the problem with our NHS (and much else) is the fact we are allowing in immigrants at an historically unprecedented rate - 1.3m in two years, more, per capita, than ever entered the USA - and that is going to fuck up a free heath service, and much else, unless the economy explodes with growth (which it has not done)

Of course, much of the blame lies with the Tories, they've been in power 14 years and demonstrably screwed this up. Fie on them

It demonstrates a longstanding truth, that NHS services are worse in poorer areas. The paucity of the services owes nothing to immigration and everything to a government policy of underfunding the NHS and public services more broadly. Immigration is just the convenient excuse Tory stooges wheel out to cover for the government's failings, lapped up by the week minded.

Do you really honestly believe that adding 10m people to our population, in a few short years - an influx so vast it is greater (per capita) than America experienced during the era of Ellis Island - has NOT put pressure on our NHS, infra, sewage, education, etc?

I mean, to me this is so ridiculous it is not debatable. It is blindingly obvious. But if you demur I'm kinda impressed

Of course, if the government chooses not to fund the necessary expansion of public services. But that is a choice.

And what if the government literally can't afford to fund this necessary expansion. What then? The obvious answer is: end immigration

Would you agree with that?

Even if we accept your premise (I don't) the question is a) how and b) how much does that cost?

If you end immigration we have to increase spending on borders and visa checks and policing people who do and don't have documentation. We have to have more raids and deportations and such. All this requires infrastructure, training, staff, legal battles, boats etc. that the state does not currently have.

Whereas, again, the government could spend more on infrastructure that benefits everyone (including immigrants) and do some Keynesian economics at the same time. But the government doesn't want to do that because it is wedded to austerity and only the private sector being able to deliver things.

Whether it's a new Garden City somewhere or appropriate developments on the edges of existing urban areas - I think we both agree new development wouldn't be bad. It's just that the governments answer to new development will be "let a private company do it and build loads of 4-5 bedroom houses that only well off people can afford, as well as a few luxury flats, and let them be overpriced and sold to landlords or investment companies and therefore not alleviate the pressure on the market at all". And that won't solve the underlying issues of rent and house prices being too high. We need council housing to create a base line of affordable homes of acceptable quality.

I don't see why a shift in immigration policy to, say, cut the current immigration numbers by 80% would require any significant change in spending on borders and visa checks. We already spend on those. If the government wanted, they could just give out fewer visas.

There are other reasons why that might not be a good idea. I work in the university sector and we'd be f****d if there was a large drop in overseas student numbers.

If the universities want to attract more foreign students, then perhaps they should be building somewhere for them to live?

They are doing, contributing to the housing crisis in university cities and towns. They are far more profitable for developers than standard flats, and they eat up what space is available.

The only way they’d be contributing to a crisis, is if the student numbers (including their dependents), are going up faster than the new housing. You need to tie the numbers together, so that it’s on the university to make sure they have enough accommodation for the numbers enrolling. Want more students, then first build more housing.

It is the government that really wants the overseas students, more so than the universities. £40bn goes a long way when we have a massive trade deficit.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Simon_Peach said:

Just rung and cancelled my NHS dental appointment for next week… our NHS dentist is Romanian and @Leon says he shouldn’t be in the country… and who am I to argue with @Leon

Yes I'm not sure I've seen a white British dentist since I was a child. I suspect the net effect of immigration on dentist availability has been positive.

By contrast I have never seen anything other than a white British dentist , apart from white American ones when I lived there. Just depends where you live.

RochdalePioneers said:

StillWaters said:

Roger said:

StillWaters said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Dura_Ace said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

StillWaters said:

With all the caveats - this is one case, it’s the Daily Mail (so may be at least half true), etc etc this is a good example of why ordinary people get frustrated by the asylum system

* Fled Syria in 2014 to avoid being called up. Ok, seems reasonable
* Settled in Germany where he had family. Makes sense
* 3 years ago he rowed with his family because he drinks and smokes and they said that means he’s not a good Muslim. Hmmh. Seems unlikely… may be @TheScreamingEagles can comment
* To quote him: 'I thought the UK would be a good place to find work in the construction industry, I am a talented plasterer,'

In what world is someone who was settled for 5+ years in Germany and has admitted that they are coming to the UK to find work a potential asylum claimant. And how has it taken 3 years to make that determination?

This isn’t a comment on the level of immigration or the need for people to do jobs. It’s a comment on the breakdown is the asylum process. If you want legal immigration that should be separate


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13058261/why-wont-police-let-leave-britain-ilegal-channel-migrant-living-rowing-boat.html

Quite: this should have been a 48 hour determination at most.

We must have the only police force in the world that actively tried to stop someone who admits, and is actively trying to go stop leaving !

But, what can they do with this boat-dwelling arsehole? They can't deport him to Syria. They can't deport him to Germany because of our hard won BREXIT FREEDOMS. The Old Bill can't just not enforce the law that says you can't blag your way onto ferries.

Stick him on a train to Dublin.

Brutal! I remember aged 18 going to Spain for a week just before taking up my first job. On the beach I met an English guy about the same age as me with a battered boat and 'Joe's Speedboat' daubed on the side.

He had a bevy of girls around him and every now and then someone would turn up wanting a ski he'd give them a spin round the bay. I spent most of the week with him and I spent the next several years wondering why I was working like a dog in London and wasn't doing what Joe was doing with his bevvy of girls not a care in the world driving his speedboat.

When did we become this morose place where we worry about someone from another country sleeping under a boat or
even buying one if he wants to? What's wrong with foreigners being here? When did this obsession start?

Because he broke the rules

Do you remember when we used to think we lived in a 'free country'? When most lived by the philosophy of 'live and let live'? '

I don't think many feel that anymore

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

I didn't see you travelling down this path tbh. What does it matter what colour people are. Plus I've no idea whether your "stat" is true. I haven't yet come across a black Polish plumber or Romanian bricklayer or indeed Albanian chippie but I'm sure some exist.

Or are you feeling a bit besieged on PB atm and are doubling down.

I am merely saying that the video is - arguably - a visual representation of the pressure mass migration is putting on the UK's public services and infra. This is hardly a new point from me, I am hardly going off on a new Nazi tangent, am I? I expect you've heard me make the point before

And yet there are PB-ers who deny this is an issue. Who deny that mass migration might be at least part of the reason we see such pressure on UK health, education, sewage, roads, &c

See below

i do feel slightly beseiged, but I quite enjoy it (for now). With @Casino_Royale gone I am like the last redcoat in Zulu, the drunken malingerer in the sick bay turned hero, shooting up at the thatch as the lefty hordes overwhelm the Drift. Hooky. That was his name. Hooky. Got a VC didn't he?

When did casino go?

Nowhere. He's lurking. Last active 09:50 this morning...

Deciding whether to come out of his flounce no doubt

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

If the young lady was brought up in Margate I’m surprised she spoke good English!

The thought did occur to me, but I instantly dismissed it on consideration, as essexist.

Essexist?

ETA: They'll have your head on a kent for that

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Eabhal said:

Matheson resigns over ipadgate

https://twitter.com/MathesonMichael/status/1755550165400801316?t=jFzoJM9lhmGFyCU6_VxF7Q&s=19

Curious timing. No official report out yet on the iPad use.

Something else going on?

I wonder if Yousaf will offer the Health Secretary job to Kate Forbes.

It's the sort of thing you wouldn't want to come up during a (May) election campaign.

Cookie said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

boulay said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

I didn't see you travelling down this path tbh. What does it matter what colour people are. Plus I've no idea whether your "stat" is true. I haven't yet come across a black Polish plumber or Romanian bricklayer or indeed Albanian chippie but I'm sure some exist.

Or are you feeling a bit besieged on PB atm and are doubling down.

I am merely saying that the video is - arguably - a visual representation of the pressure mass migration is putting on the UK's public services and infra. This is hardly a new point from me, I am hardly going off on a new Nazi tangent, am I? I expect you've heard me make the point before

And yet there are PB-ers who deny this is an issue. Who deny that mass migration might be at least part of the reason we see such pressure on UK health, education, sewage, roads, &c

See below

i do feel slightly beseiged, but I quite enjoy it (for now). With @Casino_Royale gone I am like the last redcoat in Zulu, the drunken malingerer in the sick bay turned hero, shooting up at the thatch as the lefty hordes overwhelm the Drift. Hooky. That was his name. Hooky. Got a VC didn't he?

The drunken malingerer thing was bullshit, incidentally. He was a lay Methodist preacher and an exemplary soldier, IIRC.

Also, IIRC, his descendants protested at his portrayal

Great movie, tho. Really really great

I imagine it is barely showable now, as it is quite non-Woke

Apart from it being on woke Channel 4 at new year and on 4OD (maybe still is) it’s barely showable.

It is on all the bloody time. Not sure what Leon is getting at. I know because it sucks me in every time. The Hook story line is a really good one - bad boy comes good. Shame it is complete fiction and upsets his family so much, but then most films of true events do this as otherwise they would be boring if they were really true accounts.

I am happy to accept that in this instance - the public broadcasting of Zulu - I am totally wrong, and pleased to be wrong

It always sucks me in too. The scene where they do the rapid fire shooting is one of the most amazing and rivetting in all cinema. Also the Welsh singing: spine tingling!

Agree the Welsh singing. Tugs at the heart strings.

The thing is for most of us when we see and read things the word woke or non-woke doesn't cross our minds unless it is very blatant.

Even now I am struggling to see what is non-woke in Zulu. I assume it is the nationalism and empire, but that is our history. Only the nutters should get offended. One could even at a stretch see woke elements to the film (I don't) eg the respect for the Zulus, disrespect and failings of Christianity, disrespect for the upper classes (initially).

Most of us just enjoy a well made film, well acted without any thought of woke.

This took me 30 seconds to find


"Sir Michael Caine has described the inclusion of the film Zulu on a list of cultural works that could incite the far right as the “biggest load of bull****” he has ever heard.

Last month a review of counter-terrorism programme Prevent found that Zulu was among works cited as ‘key texts’ for white nationalists."

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/michael-caine-zulu-prevent-far-right-extremism/

"Nick Ferrari In Fiery Row With Campaigner Over Calls To Ban “Racist” Zulu Film"

"Calls to axe 'racist' Zulu film from Folkestone's Silver Screen Cinema listings"

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/folkestone/news/calls-to-axe-racist-zulu-film-from-cinema-185221/

There are many, many more

Yes I had already read these before making my post. Initially I was going to respond to your first post about it being non-woke as bollocks and then found you were right and there was stuff out there, so I didn't and made my more considered post above later.

My point still stands which is referring to the nutters, not the vast majority of normal people.

Let's face it, it would not be surprising if the far right used this film as well as other films like the Dambusters to get all over patriotic and wet their pants with excitement. Equally most of us are also not in the loon camp who then want to ban films because it encourages 0.001% of the population to march down the street making Nazi salutes.

Those headlines reflect the loons on both sides, not normal people.

The problem is though that while it's quite easy to ignore the nazis, the 'everything is racist' loons - who as you note, are a minority - are nevertheless particularly influential, and their views have particular currency in education, broadcasting and the civil service. Very difficult to just ignore if you want to be educated or entertained or interact with the public sector.

False equivalence hooter. The opposite equivalent to the "everything is racist" grouping is the "nothing is racist even racism" one. These aren't nazis. They usually aren't even far right. They are people who for whatever reason don't believe racism is anything like the problem it's cracked up to be. They will often think people "playing the race card" is the bigger issue to be tackled. They are numerous and because of this are not particularly easy to ignore.

Nayib Bukele's speech after winning reelection is worth watching. El Salvador has become the country with the lowest muder rate in the western hemisphere:

https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1755411561575817340

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

If the young lady was brought up in Margate I’m surprised she spoke good English!

The thought did occur to me, but I instantly dismissed it on consideration, as essexist.

You’re not a man of Kent I take it.

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

..

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

Suggesting that British born BAMEs aren’t really British is Goodwin’s latest slippery little trick. I suppose they’re an easy visible target towards which to direct the torch wielding mob.

"The Scots are as British as anyone," isn't your usual line.

We’re as British as any other person born in the UK. Polling suggests we don’t feel as strong an attachment to that identity as BAME folk, despite the best efforts of Goodwin and his fellow travellers to put them off.

Not me TUD , I am 100% Scottish, well some Irish in there I suppose but watered down.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

If the young lady was brought up in Margate I’m surprised she spoke good English!

The thought did occur to me, but I instantly dismissed it on consideration, as essexist.

You’re not a man of Kent I take it.

No, nor even a Kentish man - geography a bit hazy.

[Edit] Quite right to correct that slip, so ignore the attempted joke. But doesn't the local dialect sound the same on both sides of the Estuary, as a matter of interest?

Chris said:

Stark_Dawning said:

I see the Right are pushing back over Rishi's PMQs controversy yesterday. The alternative narrative is that Sir Keir put on a mawkish, insincere display that milked a tragic murder for his own grubby political ends. Which narrative will gain supremacy?

For most people, the one that was prevalent at the time it was reported, not the one presented later to people still discussing it on social media.

Sunak now saying it was "sad and wrong" to have linked anti-trans comments to Brianna Ghey... but he's still refusing to apologise for having done so.

https://metro.co.uk/2024/02/08/brianna-gheys-dad-calls-rishis-transgender-comment-dehumanising-20244380

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

If the young lady was brought up in Margate I’m surprised she spoke good English!

That place can turn even the roughest bricks into a polished diamond.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Fifty weeks exactly to the next general election, 23rd January, 2025.

Who will be the Prime Minister on polling day...?

It's in the thread header FFS.

Or (as they really want to say) ... to the COMEBACK of AMAZING BORIS!

malcolmg said:

another_richard said:

Harper said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

I didn't see you travelling down this path tbh. What does it matter what colour people are. Plus I've no idea whether your "stat" is true. I haven't yet come across a black Polish plumber or Romanian bricklayer or indeed Albanian chippie but I'm sure some exist.

Or are you feeling a bit besieged on PB atm and are doubling down.

I am merely saying that the video is - arguably - a visual representation of the pressure mass migration is putting on the UK's public services and infra. This is hardly a new point from me, I am hardly going off on a new Nazi tangent, am I? I expect you've heard me make the point before

And yet there are PB-ers who deny this is an issue. Who deny that mass migration might be at least part of the reason we see such pressure on UK health, education, sewage, roads, &c

See below

i do feel slightly beseiged, but I quite enjoy it (for now). With @Casino_Royale gone I am like the last redcoat in Zulu, the drunken malingerer in the sick bay turned hero, shooting up at the thatch as the lefty hordes overwhelm the Drift. Hooky. That was his name. Hooky. Got a VC didn't he?

Unfortunately the only way the uk economy can now generate growth above zero is to have massive non white non eu immigration. Otherwise we would basically be stuck in a permanent recession.

That might increase nominal GDP but it doesn't increase GDP per capita.

The way to generate growth is through higher productivity.

The way to generate higher productivity is for the country to live within its means.

The country living within its means is an idea which terrifies most people and all politicians.

Exactly , packing in loads of immigrants year after year for 25 years has shown exactly what impact it has. Living in a tent if you are lucky , no teeth and praying you don't get ill. There are foodbanks though.

Forget productivity - the easiest way to boost GDP per capita would be to ship all under 18s and retirees off to Rwanda.

Amazing that the police don't seem to have caught Ezedi hiding in plain sight in the likes of Tescos. Does everyone just assume someone else has called the police in situations like that ?

Leon said:

malcolmg said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There is something missing in what @leon is saying.

The political set telling people that darkies are responsible for a lack of NHS dentistry are the same political set who continually cut funding to NHS dentistry.

The solution to a lack of NHS provision for dentists and GPs and hospital beds isn't less foreigners. Its more money spent on provision.

Where is the money coming from then, is it all those extra imaginary benefits that immigration brings in that it has transformed our economy in the last 25 years to a basket case.

That Dutch report - linked earlier - on the enormous net drain of non western migrants, on an economy rather like ours (but healthier) makes for very sobering reading

And of course PB has completely ignored it. Too awkward

Bit too nerdy for my taste.

Leon said:

I’ll give PBers a second chance to contemplate it

‘A team led by mathematician Jan H. van de Beek at the University of Amsterdam estimates that the Dutch government spent approximately €17 billion per year on migration in the period between 1995 and 2019, meaning that more than one billion euros went to migration-related issues every month.

The study digs deeper still: annual net costs of non-Western immigration amount to €17 billion and the annual net benefits of Western immigration total one billion euros. Distinguishing between Western and non-Western migration patterns, the study comes to a startling conclusion: if immigration remains at 2015-2019 levels, the annual budget burden will increase from €17 billion in 2016 to about €50 billion. This is an increase that the welfare state would most likely not survive.

The Dutch findings are mirrored in a similar study conducted by the Danish Finance Ministry, which concludes that non-Western immigrants are most likely to remain lifelong recipients of public finances compared to their Western or native Danish peers. Meanwhile, the picture in Germany is not much different: about 45% of those who receive unemployment benefits are not German citizens, costing the taxpayers around €20 billion per year. Austria shows similar numbers, with almost 60% of recipients having a “migrant background”.

Van de Beek sees parts of the problem in the structure of the welfare state… [snip - see the link],

The emerging picture is a complex one that includes both cultural and economic factors, but the overall conclusion remains the same: the current conditions under which migration to Europe takes place are not sustainable and will bring the welfare systems ever closer to collapsing. The idea promoted by Folkerts-Landau and others turned out to be far too optimistic, and what makes matters worse is that politicians still refuse to face the facts.

Placing one’s head in the sand is, unfortunately, not the same as actual policymaking. Europe has ignored these issues for too long, and voters will make their discontent heard at the voting booth’

https://unherd.com/thepost/dutch-study-immigration-costs-state-e17-billion-per-year/

I've contemplated it. Question - how do we manage without migration?

In principle we should be doing all we can to better ourselves. Have a brilliant education system where the aim is to get as many people as possible as educated and practically skilled as our society needs. Have a world-class health and social care system, so that people are proactively kept healthy and productive, with a strong safety net to catch people who need support. A globally-relevant industrial sector, plugged into our universities who develop exciting breakthroughs like Graphene which we then commercialise and sell to the world.

In principle. In practice? We don't do any of that, which is why we need migration. Lets assume our annual cost is £17bn, and we decided instead to spend it on ourselves. First off, £17bn isn't very much to achieve all the lofty aims just listed. And most critically, the people who are loudly anti-immigration are as loudly anti-spending money on workshy scroungers, or education, or healthcare, or skills.

So if you want to propose that we embark on a 20 year program to turn the UK into a new global powerhouse - educated, healthy, socially secure - then I am all for it. But you're not. Which is why we need migration.

FrankBooth said:

Anyone know when the last major reservoir was built in the UK?

Carsington in 1991

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

If the young lady was brought up in Margate I’m surprised she spoke good English!

The thought did occur to me, but I instantly dismissed it on consideration, as essexist.

You’re not a man of Kent I take it.

No, nor even a Kentish man - geography a bit hazy.

[Edit] Quite right to correct that slip, so ignore the attempted joke. But doesn't the local dialect sound the same on both sides of the Estuary, as a matter of interest?

There's a whole range of accents in Essex - from the stereotypical TOWIE accent close to London to something quite different out towards the Suffolk borders. I grew up in Chelmsford (more or less in the middle of Essex) and most people through my life have not thought I have an Essex accent. I take more after my dad, who grew up near the Suffolk border, than my mum who grew up near Brentwood (more TOWIE-esque). People at school thought I sounded very posh (oddly enough as I was from one of the poorer families).

Kent is a pretty flat estuary accent, but mostly not the stereotypical Essex sound.

Of course, in both, as you get close to London it gets more similar, to my ears at least.

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

If the young lady was brought up in Margate I’m surprised she spoke good English!

The thought did occur to me, but I instantly dismissed it on consideration, as essexist.

Wrong side of the Thames Estuary! Kent.

noneoftheabove said:

Pulpstar said:

eek said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

148grss said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

That isn't what that video says to any sane person

Now, don't get me wrong,. every person in that queue deserves free dental care, that is our national policy, that is their right. And dentistry in the UK has been SHITE for decades, and getting worse (I get all mine in Bangkok)

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue (compared to national average) does suggest that part of the problem with our NHS (and much else) is the fact we are allowing in immigrants at an historically unprecedented rate - 1.3m in two years, more, per capita, than ever entered the USA - and that is going to fuck up a free heath service, and much else, unless the economy explodes with growth (which it has not done)

Of course, much of the blame lies with the Tories, they've been in power 14 years and demonstrably screwed this up. Fie on them

It demonstrates a longstanding truth, that NHS services are worse in poorer areas. The paucity of the services owes nothing to immigration and everything to a government policy of underfunding the NHS and public services more broadly. Immigration is just the convenient excuse Tory stooges wheel out to cover for the government's failings, lapped up by the week minded.

Do you really honestly believe that adding 10m people to our population, in a few short years - an influx so vast it is greater (per capita) than America experienced during the era of Ellis Island - has NOT put pressure on our NHS, infra, sewage, education, etc?

I mean, to me this is so ridiculous it is not debatable. It is blindingly obvious. But if you demur I'm kinda impressed

Of course, if the government chooses not to fund the necessary expansion of public services. But that is a choice.

And what if the government literally can't afford to fund this necessary expansion. What then? The obvious answer is: end immigration

Would you agree with that?

Even if we accept your premise (I don't) the question is a) how and b) how much does that cost?

If you end immigration we have to increase spending on borders and visa checks and policing people who do and don't have documentation. We have to have more raids and deportations and such. All this requires infrastructure, training, staff, legal battles, boats etc. that the state does not currently have.

Whereas, again, the government could spend more on infrastructure that benefits everyone (including immigrants) and do some Keynesian economics at the same time. But the government doesn't want to do that because it is wedded to austerity and only the private sector being able to deliver things.

Whether it's a new Garden City somewhere or appropriate developments on the edges of existing urban areas - I think we both agree new development wouldn't be bad. It's just that the governments answer to new development will be "let a private company do it and build loads of 4-5 bedroom houses that only well off people can afford, as well as a few luxury flats, and let them be overpriced and sold to landlords or investment companies and therefore not alleviate the pressure on the market at all". And that won't solve the underlying issues of rent and house prices being too high. We need council housing to create a base line of affordable homes of acceptable quality.

If you build enough homes of any kind, the prices will fall. Even the Ancient Romans knew this.

This is, in part, why we don't build the houses required.

The conversion effect in the market is fascinating. Where I work (small bank), the new joiners no longer expect to move to their own flat. Instead they live in posh versions of HMOs. Whereas a few years ago...

Similarly, in West London, the houses built by the Victorians and Edwardians, quite explicitly, for the poor, are now 7 figures.

I do wonder, if the property market ever unwinds, how that will change.

See also the increasing prevalence of the 45 year mortgage - taken out, on average, by someone aged 33.

Which makes for interesting math.

I thought the 35 year mortgage twin A is taking out aged 21 seemed rather long

To add her plan is to have a lodger or 2 (probably post grad students) for a couple of reasons

1) for some company
2) the income should allow her to pay the mortgage off in 10 years or so

I was thinking about this. Isn't it mathematically best to take out as long a mortgage as possible, and shovel as much money into either a lifetime ISA or your pension (Depending on salary etc) as possible ? Your mortgage is pretty almost always the cheapest money available.

Will have a higher expected value, yes, but with more risk.

I'd say so for a regular ISA but with LISAs and salary sac pensions and the fact mortgage is paid post tax it tips it towards the LISA/pension route. That's my plan anyway. A bit of platform risk with Hargreaves Lansdowne, Aegon, Vanguard and Legal & General too I guess.

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

If the young lady was brought up in Margate I’m surprised she spoke good English!

Rude! She never lived in Margate, her parents were living in Ramsgate at the time but she spent most of her childhood in Derby.

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue

This is where you fucked up.

No, it isn't

It will be newcomers seeking dentists. Settled citizens (of any stripe) will already have dentists, in the main

For the last eight years the vast majority of migration into Britain - since Brexit - has been non-white, non-EU. You would therefore expect a queue of new people, presumably seeking a dentist, to be non-white

Not really. People move around, and will need a new dentist. Existing dental practices shut down and their patients need a new dentist. Plenty of people simply don't have a dentist because NHS dentists in their area won't take new patients. You just looked at a queue of non white people and said "they must be immigrants" on the basis of no information. Given that you live in Camden you have a surprisingly provincial and outdated view of British society.

St Paul's, Bristol, has one of the higher levels of non-UK-born inhabitants in the country. So, no, I didn't just presume, I looked at the data

St Paul's has had a large African/Caribbean population since the 1950s (it has had a carnival since the early 1960s and was where the Bristol Bus Boycott started) so will also be home to a significant non white population who are not immigrants and certainly not recent arrivals. I just don't know how one can judge whether the crowd outside the dental practice are recent immigrants or not based on their appearance.
It all reminds me of some friends of my grandparents who congratulated my then girlfriend, now wife, on her beautiful English. Her parents are Sri Lankan but she was born in Margate and was studying at Cambridge University at the time so her English language skills were not really that surprising.

People who attended the University of Cambridge speak the best. Fact.

We also write the best.

If the young lady was brought up in Margate I’m surprised she spoke good English!

The thought did occur to me, but I instantly dismissed it on consideration, as essexist.

We don’t go Sarf of the river…..

Leon said:

I’ll give PBers a second chance to contemplate it

‘A team led by mathematician Jan H. van de Beek at the University of Amsterdam estimates that the Dutch government spent approximately €17 billion per year on migration in the period between 1995 and 2019, meaning that more than one billion euros went to migration-related issues every month.

The study digs deeper still: annual net costs of non-Western immigration amount to €17 billion and the annual net benefits of Western immigration total one billion euros. Distinguishing between Western and non-Western migration patterns, the study comes to a startling conclusion: if immigration remains at 2015-2019 levels, the annual budget burden will increase from €17 billion in 2016 to about €50 billion. This is an increase that the welfare state would most likely not survive.

The Dutch findings are mirrored in a similar study conducted by the Danish Finance Ministry, which concludes that non-Western immigrants are most likely to remain lifelong recipients of public finances compared to their Western or native Danish peers. Meanwhile, the picture in Germany is not much different: about 45% of those who receive unemployment benefits are not German citizens, costing the taxpayers around €20 billion per year. Austria shows similar numbers, with almost 60% of recipients having a “migrant background”.

Van de Beek sees parts of the problem in the structure of the welfare state… [snip - see the link],

The emerging picture is a complex one that includes both cultural and economic factors, but the overall conclusion remains the same: the current conditions under which migration to Europe takes place are not sustainable and will bring the welfare systems ever closer to collapsing. The idea promoted by Folkerts-Landau and others turned out to be far too optimistic, and what makes matters worse is that politicians still refuse to face the facts.

Placing one’s head in the sand is, unfortunately, not the same as actual policymaking. Europe has ignored these issues for too long, and voters will make their discontent heard at the voting booth’

https://unherd.com/thepost/dutch-study-immigration-costs-state-e17-billion-per-year/

So the only actual report I can find (other than pieces in right wing media about the report) are in Danish, and I can't find anything discussing the report in English other than right wingers hailing it as the evidence they've always needed that immigrants are bad actually. That's not to say it is wrong, just that as someone who doesn't speak Danish I can't verify the actual findings of the report outside of places like unherd, who are not a source I trust.

I have found an OpenDemocracy article detailing essentially the argument I put forth yesterday - how if immigrants are a "drain" on an economy it is most likely the practices of the employers who abuse those workers and use them to under cut labour rights and labour costs, but I accept that could have nothing to do with what this report was exploring. If you have a link directly to the report in English, I'd be very interested to look at it, the methodology and such.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/beyond-trafficking-and-slavery/the-danish-model-of-exploiting-migrant-workers/

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

malcolmg said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There is something missing in what @leon is saying.

The political set telling people that darkies are responsible for a lack of NHS dentistry are the same political set who continually cut funding to NHS dentistry.

The solution to a lack of NHS provision for dentists and GPs and hospital beds isn't less foreigners. Its more money spent on provision.

Where is the money coming from then, is it all those extra imaginary benefits that immigration brings in that it has transformed our economy in the last 25 years to a basket case.

That Dutch report - linked earlier - on the enormous net drain of non western migrants, on an economy rather like ours (but healthier) makes for very sobering reading

And of course PB has completely ignored it. Too awkward

Bit too nerdy for my taste.

God, it's so easy being on the Left. Any awkward evidence, simply ignore it. Sorted

Enviable, in a way. Just spend your intellectual life in some kind of mediocre Tenerife of the mind, maybe on an outdoor terrace bar of stupidity, listening to the muzak of meh I don't want to think about it

148grss said:

Leon said:

I’ll give PBers a second chance to contemplate it

‘A team led by mathematician Jan H. van de Beek at the University of Amsterdam estimates that the Dutch government spent approximately €17 billion per year on migration in the period between 1995 and 2019, meaning that more than one billion euros went to migration-related issues every month.

The study digs deeper still: annual net costs of non-Western immigration amount to €17 billion and the annual net benefits of Western immigration total one billion euros. Distinguishing between Western and non-Western migration patterns, the study comes to a startling conclusion: if immigration remains at 2015-2019 levels, the annual budget burden will increase from €17 billion in 2016 to about €50 billion. This is an increase that the welfare state would most likely not survive.

The Dutch findings are mirrored in a similar study conducted by the Danish Finance Ministry, which concludes that non-Western immigrants are most likely to remain lifelong recipients of public finances compared to their Western or native Danish peers. Meanwhile, the picture in Germany is not much different: about 45% of those who receive unemployment benefits are not German citizens, costing the taxpayers around €20 billion per year. Austria shows similar numbers, with almost 60% of recipients having a “migrant background”.

Van de Beek sees parts of the problem in the structure of the welfare state… [snip - see the link],

The emerging picture is a complex one that includes both cultural and economic factors, but the overall conclusion remains the same: the current conditions under which migration to Europe takes place are not sustainable and will bring the welfare systems ever closer to collapsing. The idea promoted by Folkerts-Landau and others turned out to be far too optimistic, and what makes matters worse is that politicians still refuse to face the facts.

Placing one’s head in the sand is, unfortunately, not the same as actual policymaking. Europe has ignored these issues for too long, and voters will make their discontent heard at the voting booth’

https://unherd.com/thepost/dutch-study-immigration-costs-state-e17-billion-per-year/

So the only actual report I can find (other than pieces in right wing media about the report) are in Danish, and I can't find anything discussing the report in English other than right wingers hailing it as the evidence they've always needed that immigrants are bad actually. That's not to say it is wrong, just that as someone who doesn't speak Danish I can't verify the actual findings of the report outside of places like unherd, who are not a source I trust.

I have found an OpenDemocracy article detailing essentially the argument I put forth yesterday - how if immigrants are a "drain" on an economy it is most likely the practices of the employers who abuse those workers and use them to under cut labour rights and labour costs, but I accept that could have nothing to do with what this report was exploring. If you have a link directly to the report in English, I'd be very interested to look at it, the methodology and such.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/beyond-trafficking-and-slavery/the-danish-model-of-exploiting-migrant-workers/

Dutch and Danish are not the same language. You've mixed it up with Danish research which came to the same conclusion.

bondegezou said:

FrankBooth said:

Anyone know when the last major reservoir was built in the UK?

Carsington in 1991

According to Torsten Bell, 1992, though maybe that is the one. Population increase has been 10 million since then.

148grss said:

Leon said:

I’ll give PBers a second chance to contemplate it

‘A team led by mathematician Jan H. van de Beek at the University of Amsterdam estimates that the Dutch government spent approximately €17 billion per year on migration in the period between 1995 and 2019, meaning that more than one billion euros went to migration-related issues every month.

The study digs deeper still: annual net costs of non-Western immigration amount to €17 billion and the annual net benefits of Western immigration total one billion euros. Distinguishing between Western and non-Western migration patterns, the study comes to a startling conclusion: if immigration remains at 2015-2019 levels, the annual budget burden will increase from €17 billion in 2016 to about €50 billion. This is an increase that the welfare state would most likely not survive.

The Dutch findings are mirrored in a similar study conducted by the Danish Finance Ministry, which concludes that non-Western immigrants are most likely to remain lifelong recipients of public finances compared to their Western or native Danish peers. Meanwhile, the picture in Germany is not much different: about 45% of those who receive unemployment benefits are not German citizens, costing the taxpayers around €20 billion per year. Austria shows similar numbers, with almost 60% of recipients having a “migrant background”.

Van de Beek sees parts of the problem in the structure of the welfare state… [snip - see the link],

The emerging picture is a complex one that includes both cultural and economic factors, but the overall conclusion remains the same: the current conditions under which migration to Europe takes place are not sustainable and will bring the welfare systems ever closer to collapsing. The idea promoted by Folkerts-Landau and others turned out to be far too optimistic, and what makes matters worse is that politicians still refuse to face the facts.

Placing one’s head in the sand is, unfortunately, not the same as actual policymaking. Europe has ignored these issues for too long, and voters will make their discontent heard at the voting booth’

https://unherd.com/thepost/dutch-study-immigration-costs-state-e17-billion-per-year/

So the only actual report I can find (other than pieces in right wing media about the report) are in Danish, and I can't find anything discussing the report in English other than right wingers hailing it as the evidence they've always needed that immigrants are bad actually. That's not to say it is wrong, just that as someone who doesn't speak Danish I can't verify the actual findings of the report outside of places like unherd, who are not a source I trust.

I have found an OpenDemocracy article detailing essentially the argument I put forth yesterday - how if immigrants are a "drain" on an economy it is most likely the practices of the employers who abuse those workers and use them to under cut labour rights and labour costs, but I accept that could have nothing to do with what this report was exploring. If you have a link directly to the report in English, I'd be very interested to look at it, the methodology and such.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/beyond-trafficking-and-slavery/the-danish-model-of-exploiting-migrant-workers/

Mate, it's Dutch. lol

Not a good start to your research


Here's the report. In English


https://demo-demo.nl/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Borderless_Welfare_State-2.pdf

LostPassword said:

MattW said:

Eabhal said:

Carnyx said:

Eabhal said:

Another transport thing.

Amazing visualisation of just how rubbish the train network is outside London: https://x.com/Coneee/status/1755500503985750445?s=20

While we are on transport, this came up specially for you and @MattW :

https://www.thenational.scot/sport/24105286.edinburgh-route-tops-list-worst-cycle-lanes-world/

Weirdly proud of this

It's an amazing saga over quite a lot of years.

My favourite faceplants have been how transits park on the tram tracks because "I gotta do my job" (and screw the hundreds of people stuck on the tram), and nothing happens to sort it.

And the photo of a repair crew repairing a smashed pavement slabs, whilst an HGV is parked on the pavement behind them to deliver, re-smashing the ones they fixed last week or last month.

And now it's all about to be repeated with part of the Roseburn cycling / walking path, which is planned to be destroyed and replaced with a tram track, in violation of policy going back 20 years that states that if the project were done, cycling and walking facilities would be provided alongside.

This after umpteen Council funded cycling and walking initiatives rely on the path as it is now, as part of the existing infra they are leveraging off.

Just not joined up. Create a project, ignore the people-who-know who offer advice, defend it all because you are bound by the contract for a crap product that you signed, go over budget, reduce the quality and strip out the safety features to cover the gap, then pay out millions * in compensation forever for people who are hurt by the dangerous infrastructure.

TBF many, many Councils are like this and have little option, except where they have their own long-term funding or a regional-Mayor deal, given short-termist funding.

* From 2012 to 2022 the Council has paid out £1,262,141 to around 200+ cyclists injured on it. Officially that is just the tip of the iceberg.
https://road.cc/content/news/cyclists-injured-edinburgh-tram-line-paid-ps12m-296065

The Roseburn cycling path in Edinburgh is genuinely great. It's also part of national cycle route 1, from London to the very tip of Scotland.

Obviously it only exists because a tram route used to go down it, so it makes a certain amount of sense to put trams back onto it, but it will be a massive loss to being able to navigate around and through Edinburgh by bicycle without having to mix it with traffic on the roads.

It's fantastic because the gradient is perfect for cycling in a very hilly city.

Typical for a local council to put public transport users, pedestrians and cyclists in conflict with each other. I'm a massive fan of the tram, yet here I am...

Dura_Ace said:

Sean_F said:

If Ukraine can keep fighting for 2-3 years, then it will likely win, as Russia runs out of resources.

We've heard that one a few times before. Although 2-3 years is a fresh new twist on it.

Yes, comrade!

DavidL said:

Sean_F said:

O/T I went to a dinner/seminar last night at which defence/ Ukraine issues were discussed at length by top analysts. The key takeaways were:-

1. Tactically, the performance of the Russian army is dreadful, no better than two years ago. But, it has always been. Operationally, it is a lot more capable, and it is getting artillery shells in much greater numbers than Ukraine. There are precisely two European companies that manufacture artillery shells. However, Ukraine has the advantage in terms of possession and production of drones.

2. Russians are willing to suffer hardship, to achieve military success, in ways we don’t fully appreciate in the West.

3. But even Russia can’t defy economic gravity for ever. Soviet oil exports have been hit hard in recent months, partly due to drone attacks, and the regime is burning through foreign exchange reserves at an incredible speed. If Ukraine can keep fighting for 2-3 years, then it will likely win, as Russia runs out of resources.

4. Germany’s commitment to Ukraine is now of vital importance. As well as aid, Germany is now training twice as many Ukrainian soldiers as the UK is.

5. The reduction of the UK’s military capability, starting in 2010, is of real concern, throughout NATO. Cameron, Osborne and their successors have acted as if the world is growing safer, rather than more dangerous.

6. Contrary to press reports, there is no shortage of people wishing to join the armed forces. The real problem is with Capita, taking up to 14 months to process applications, by which time, they’ve taken other jobs.

On point 5 I do think, in fairness, that they were right that the conventional risks had substantially reduced with the collapse of the old Soviet bloc and the backwatering of Europe. I don't think that even Ukraine has fundamentally changed that analysis. Rather it has shown that the risk of a conventional Russian attack was substantially overstated by those with a vested interest in defence spending.

What has changed, and is new, is the significance of drone technology in warfare. We are in a similar position in that respect to when ironclad ships made our large wooden navy redundant almost over night. The result of this development is that we are going to need a lot of new kit, to get rid of a lot of old kit and train our armed forces to fight in very different ways. That is going to cost significant money. The timing isn't great but there may well come a point when Ukraine is training the armies of western Europe rather than the other way around.

Yes. Massed tank attacks are now possibly suicidal, and half the Russian Black Sea fleet has been destroyed by a side with almost no navy.

Also, I don't that the importance of economic strength can be underestimated. The side that is economically weaker has to get very lucky (like Germany in 1940), to achieve victory.

DavidL said:

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Sean_F said:

O/T I went to a dinner/seminar last night at which defence/ Ukraine issues were discussed at length by top analysts. The key takeaways were:-

1. Tactically, the performance of the Russian army is dreadful, no better than two years ago. But, it has always been. Operationally, it is a lot more capable, and it is getting artillery shells in much greater numbers than Ukraine. There are precisely two European companies that manufacture artillery shells. However, Ukraine has the advantage in terms of possession and production of drones.

2. Russians are willing to suffer hardship, to achieve military success, in ways we don’t fully appreciate in the West.

3. But even Russia can’t defy economic gravity for ever. Soviet oil exports have been hit hard in recent months, partly due to drone attacks, and the regime is burning through foreign exchange reserves at an incredible speed. If Ukraine can keep fighting for 2-3 years, then it will likely win, as Russia runs out of resources.

4. Germany’s commitment to Ukraine is now of vital importance. As well as aid, Germany is now training twice as many Ukrainian soldiers as the UK is.

5. The reduction of the UK’s military capability, starting in 2010, is of real concern, throughout NATO. Cameron, Osborne and their successors have acted as if the world is growing safer, rather than more dangerous.

6. Contrary to press reports, there is no shortage of people wishing to join the armed forces. The real problem is with Capita, taking up to 14 months to process applications, by which time, they’ve taken other jobs.

On point 5 I do think, in fairness, that they were right that the conventional risks had substantially reduced with the collapse of the old Soviet bloc and the backwatering of Europe. I don't think that even Ukraine has fundamentally changed that analysis. Rather it has shown that the risk of a conventional Russian attack was substantially overstated by those with a vested interest in defence spending.

What has changed, and is new, is the significance of drone technology in warfare. We are in a similar position in that respect to when ironclad ships made our large wooden navy redundant almost over night. The result of this development is that we are going to need a lot of new kit, to get rid of a lot of old kit and train our armed forces to fight in very different ways. That is going to cost significant money. The timing isn't great but there may well come a point when Ukraine is training the armies of western Europe rather than the other way around.

Yes. Massed tank attacks are now possibly suicidal, and half the Russian Black Sea fleet has been destroyed by a side with almost no navy.

Its fascinating to contemplate how differently the Gulf wars would have been fought with today's kit. Large scale tank battles would almost certainly not have happened.

The technology development is lopsided and evolving. Equally could be that only vehicles with point defence systems (which already exist) can survive on the battle field. With unprotected individuals being doomed.

Cookie said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Eabhal said:

Matheson resigns over ipadgate

https://twitter.com/MathesonMichael/status/1755550165400801316?t=jFzoJM9lhmGFyCU6_VxF7Q&s=19

Curious timing. No official report out yet on the iPad use.

Something else going on?

I wonder if Yousaf will offer the Health Secretary job to Kate Forbes.

Don’t see how that would work with her support of those ghouls hanging about outside NHS abortion clinics.

Gives me the opportunity for one of* my vasectomy anecdotes.
At the end of the whole escapade, as, in my loose-fitting trousers, sympathetic wife at my side, feeling not exactly tip-top either physically or mentally, I shuffled uncomfortably out of the door and down the steps to the car park, I was heckled by a gang. I was puzzled by this to start with: I’m no stranger to the odd angry mob, but these were an incongruous angry mob; older, more conservatively dressed, more accessorised by the accoutrements of street Christianity than most angry mobs I had hitherto come across. British Christians, in my experience, very rarely tend to be angry. What were these people doing at a discreet vasectomy clinic in suburban south Manchester? And why were they so cross at me? They were too pathetic and I was too preoccupied with the pain in my penis for me too feel particularly frightened. But I gradually became aware – they were looking slightly to my left, not directly at me, which I also thought odd, given my rather self-absorbed frame of mind: clearly in my head I was the main player in this drama at that moment – that it was not me but my wife they were heckling, and my hackles rose. Clearly they were under the impression that we’d been in for an abortion. Maybe that place did abortions on other days? Who knows.
Anyway. Not having superstitious nutjobs shout at my wife like that, erroneously or not. The sheer scale of wrongness made a pithy and cutting retort quite challenging, but I rallied. Probably fortuitously, by the time I managed to get the words in order – it was quite a good rant, and I think concluded with the word ‘fuckwits’ – my wife had managed to pilot me into the car, past the still-angry mob and, actually, several miles away. So it was only really her who got the benefit of my wit.
A pity, but probably for the best.

* Only one vasectomy, but a few anecdotes. It was an interesting experience.

'I was too preoccupied with the pain in my penis for me too feel particularly frightened'

Could imagine Richard Hannay saying that.

Leon said:

148grss said:

Leon said:

I’ll give PBers a second chance to contemplate it

‘A team led by mathematician Jan H. van de Beek at the University of Amsterdam estimates that the Dutch government spent approximately €17 billion per year on migration in the period between 1995 and 2019, meaning that more than one billion euros went to migration-related issues every month.

The study digs deeper still: annual net costs of non-Western immigration amount to €17 billion and the annual net benefits of Western immigration total one billion euros. Distinguishing between Western and non-Western migration patterns, the study comes to a startling conclusion: if immigration remains at 2015-2019 levels, the annual budget burden will increase from €17 billion in 2016 to about €50 billion. This is an increase that the welfare state would most likely not survive.

The Dutch findings are mirrored in a similar study conducted by the Danish Finance Ministry, which concludes that non-Western immigrants are most likely to remain lifelong recipients of public finances compared to their Western or native Danish peers. Meanwhile, the picture in Germany is not much different: about 45% of those who receive unemployment benefits are not German citizens, costing the taxpayers around €20 billion per year. Austria shows similar numbers, with almost 60% of recipients having a “migrant background”.

Van de Beek sees parts of the problem in the structure of the welfare state… [snip - see the link],

The emerging picture is a complex one that includes both cultural and economic factors, but the overall conclusion remains the same: the current conditions under which migration to Europe takes place are not sustainable and will bring the welfare systems ever closer to collapsing. The idea promoted by Folkerts-Landau and others turned out to be far too optimistic, and what makes matters worse is that politicians still refuse to face the facts.

Placing one’s head in the sand is, unfortunately, not the same as actual policymaking. Europe has ignored these issues for too long, and voters will make their discontent heard at the voting booth’

https://unherd.com/thepost/dutch-study-immigration-costs-state-e17-billion-per-year/

So the only actual report I can find (other than pieces in right wing media about the report) are in Danish, and I can't find anything discussing the report in English other than right wingers hailing it as the evidence they've always needed that immigrants are bad actually. That's not to say it is wrong, just that as someone who doesn't speak Danish I can't verify the actual findings of the report outside of places like unherd, who are not a source I trust.

I have found an OpenDemocracy article detailing essentially the argument I put forth yesterday - how if immigrants are a "drain" on an economy it is most likely the practices of the employers who abuse those workers and use them to under cut labour rights and labour costs, but I accept that could have nothing to do with what this report was exploring. If you have a link directly to the report in English, I'd be very interested to look at it, the methodology and such.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/beyond-trafficking-and-slavery/the-danish-model-of-exploiting-migrant-workers/

Mate, it's Dutch. lol

Not a good start to your research


Here's the report. In English


https://demo-demo.nl/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Borderless_Welfare_State-2.pdf

Okay - that's me misreading and quickly scanning things in my lunch hour. Will read what I can now

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

malcolmg said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There is something missing in what @leon is saying.

The political set telling people that darkies are responsible for a lack of NHS dentistry are the same political set who continually cut funding to NHS dentistry.

The solution to a lack of NHS provision for dentists and GPs and hospital beds isn't less foreigners. Its more money spent on provision.

Where is the money coming from then, is it all those extra imaginary benefits that immigration brings in that it has transformed our economy in the last 25 years to a basket case.

That Dutch report - linked earlier - on the enormous net drain of non western migrants, on an economy rather like ours (but healthier) makes for very sobering reading

And of course PB has completely ignored it. Too awkward

Bit too nerdy for my taste.

God, it's so easy being on the Left. Any awkward evidence, simply ignore it. Sorted

Enviable, in a way. Just spend your intellectual life in some kind of mediocre Tenerife of the mind, maybe on an outdoor terrace bar of stupidity, listening to the muzak of meh I don't want to think about it

It just looked a bit sweaty - plus it's unHerd which is a further push factor.

Anyway I see '148' is on it and those are capable (and progressive) hands. So we're all good. It's getting dealt with.

Outsourcing your thinking and moral compass. Interesting.

bondegezou said:

Sandpit said:

Eabhal said:

Sandpit said:

bondegezou said:

148grss said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

That isn't what that video says to any sane person

Now, don't get me wrong,. every person in that queue deserves free dental care, that is our national policy, that is their right. And dentistry in the UK has been SHITE for decades, and getting worse (I get all mine in Bangkok)

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue (compared to national average) does suggest that part of the problem with our NHS (and much else) is the fact we are allowing in immigrants at an historically unprecedented rate - 1.3m in two years, more, per capita, than ever entered the USA - and that is going to fuck up a free heath service, and much else, unless the economy explodes with growth (which it has not done)

Of course, much of the blame lies with the Tories, they've been in power 14 years and demonstrably screwed this up. Fie on them

It demonstrates a longstanding truth, that NHS services are worse in poorer areas. The paucity of the services owes nothing to immigration and everything to a government policy of underfunding the NHS and public services more broadly. Immigration is just the convenient excuse Tory stooges wheel out to cover for the government's failings, lapped up by the week minded.

Do you really honestly believe that adding 10m people to our population, in a few short years - an influx so vast it is greater (per capita) than America experienced during the era of Ellis Island - has NOT put pressure on our NHS, infra, sewage, education, etc?

I mean, to me this is so ridiculous it is not debatable. It is blindingly obvious. But if you demur I'm kinda impressed

Of course, if the government chooses not to fund the necessary expansion of public services. But that is a choice.

And what if the government literally can't afford to fund this necessary expansion. What then? The obvious answer is: end immigration

Would you agree with that?

Even if we accept your premise (I don't) the question is a) how and b) how much does that cost?

If you end immigration we have to increase spending on borders and visa checks and policing people who do and don't have documentation. We have to have more raids and deportations and such. All this requires infrastructure, training, staff, legal battles, boats etc. that the state does not currently have.

Whereas, again, the government could spend more on infrastructure that benefits everyone (including immigrants) and do some Keynesian economics at the same time. But the government doesn't want to do that because it is wedded to austerity and only the private sector being able to deliver things.

Whether it's a new Garden City somewhere or appropriate developments on the edges of existing urban areas - I think we both agree new development wouldn't be bad. It's just that the governments answer to new development will be "let a private company do it and build loads of 4-5 bedroom houses that only well off people can afford, as well as a few luxury flats, and let them be overpriced and sold to landlords or investment companies and therefore not alleviate the pressure on the market at all". And that won't solve the underlying issues of rent and house prices being too high. We need council housing to create a base line of affordable homes of acceptable quality.

I don't see why a shift in immigration policy to, say, cut the current immigration numbers by 80% would require any significant change in spending on borders and visa checks. We already spend on those. If the government wanted, they could just give out fewer visas.

There are other reasons why that might not be a good idea. I work in the university sector and we'd be f****d if there was a large drop in overseas student numbers.

If the universities want to attract more foreign students, then perhaps they should be building somewhere for them to live?

They are doing, contributing to the housing crisis in university cities and towns. They are far more profitable for developers than standard flats, and they eat up what space is available.

The only way they’d be contributing to a crisis, is if the student numbers (including their dependents), are going up faster than the new housing. You need to tie the numbers together, so that it’s on the university to make sure they have enough accommodation for the numbers enrolling. Want more students, then first build more housing.

I think the current presumption is that capitalism works. Students need accommodation, so demand is increased, so supply will increase.

Definitely happening. Just look at Newcastle or Durham over the last few years. Student digs are increasing.

Whether it is enough or not, is another matter.

AlsoLei said:

Chris said:

Stark_Dawning said:

I see the Right are pushing back over Rishi's PMQs controversy yesterday. The alternative narrative is that Sir Keir put on a mawkish, insincere display that milked a tragic murder for his own grubby political ends. Which narrative will gain supremacy?

For most people, the one that was prevalent at the time it was reported, not the one presented later to people still discussing it on social media.

Sunak now saying it was "sad and wrong" to have linked anti-trans comments to Brianna Ghey... but he's still refusing to apologise for having done so.

https://metro.co.uk/2024/02/08/brianna-gheys-dad-calls-rishis-transgender-comment-dehumanising-20244380

As Sunak seems to be lacking in political instinct across the board, should we be surprised that he lacks the instinct to stop digging when he's in a hole?

Dura_Ace said:

Sean_F said:

If Ukraine can keep fighting for 2-3 years, then it will likely win, as Russia runs out of resources.

We've heard that one a few times before. Although 2-3 years is a fresh new twist on it.

Russia have supposed to have been a couple of years from running out of resources for the last 18 months.

Man admits calling Tory MP’s office and saying: ‘I’m coming for you’

One of Mike Freer's tormentors. Classic "doesn't look the type" energy here

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/man-admits-calling-tory-mp-s-office-and-saying-i-m-coming-for-you/ar-BB1hVvqh?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0685316648b44ef6826e79ca1cbac4af&ei=31

williamglenn said:

Nayib Bukele's speech after winning reelection is worth watching. El Salvador has become the country with the lowest muder rate in the western hemisphere:

https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1755411561575817340

The decline in murder rate is impressive but 7.8 per 100,000 is not the lowest. El Salvador has 6.5 million people, roughly the same population as Scotland which had 52 homicides for the whole country and that is without suspending habeus corpus and rounding up everyone remotely gang-adjacent.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqv9vzqvddwo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Salvador

Taz said:

bondegezou said:

Sandpit said:

Eabhal said:

Sandpit said:

bondegezou said:

148grss said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Much of urban Britain is now completely dystopian. That queue for the dentists in St Paul's

https://x.com/uk8qnzl/status/1754997596521734573?s=20

Er, you haven't noticed that we have discussed it several times on PB, including Labour's modification of the photo to a Britain Isn't Working-style election poster. But it is always good to remind ourselves that that is the way in which current government policy drills down to the ordinary punter on the street.

That isn't what that video says to any sane person

Now, don't get me wrong,. every person in that queue deserves free dental care, that is our national policy, that is their right. And dentistry in the UK has been SHITE for decades, and getting worse (I get all mine in Bangkok)

But the obvious BME over-representation in that queue (compared to national average) does suggest that part of the problem with our NHS (and much else) is the fact we are allowing in immigrants at an historically unprecedented rate - 1.3m in two years, more, per capita, than ever entered the USA - and that is going to fuck up a free heath service, and much else, unless the economy explodes with growth (which it has not done)

Of course, much of the blame lies with the Tories, they've been in power 14 years and demonstrably screwed this up. Fie on them

It demonstrates a longstanding truth, that NHS services are worse in poorer areas. The paucity of the services owes nothing to immigration and everything to a government policy of underfunding the NHS and public services more broadly. Immigration is just the convenient excuse Tory stooges wheel out to cover for the government's failings, lapped up by the week minded.

Do you really honestly believe that adding 10m people to our population, in a few short years - an influx so vast it is greater (per capita) than America experienced during the era of Ellis Island - has NOT put pressure on our NHS, infra, sewage, education, etc?

I mean, to me this is so ridiculous it is not debatable. It is blindingly obvious. But if you demur I'm kinda impressed

Of course, if the government chooses not to fund the necessary expansion of public services. But that is a choice.

And what if the government literally can't afford to fund this necessary expansion. What then? The obvious answer is: end immigration

Would you agree with that?

Even if we accept your premise (I don't) the question is a) how and b) how much does that cost?

If you end immigration we have to increase spending on borders and visa checks and policing people who do and don't have documentation. We have to have more raids and deportations and such. All this requires infrastructure, training, staff, legal battles, boats etc. that the state does not currently have.

Whereas, again, the government could spend more on infrastructure that benefits everyone (including immigrants) and do some Keynesian economics at the same time. But the government doesn't want to do that because it is wedded to austerity and only the private sector being able to deliver things.

Whether it's a new Garden City somewhere or appropriate developments on the edges of existing urban areas - I think we both agree new development wouldn't be bad. It's just that the governments answer to new development will be "let a private company do it and build loads of 4-5 bedroom houses that only well off people can afford, as well as a few luxury flats, and let them be overpriced and sold to landlords or investment companies and therefore not alleviate the pressure on the market at all". And that won't solve the underlying issues of rent and house prices being too high. We need council housing to create a base line of affordable homes of acceptable quality.

I don't see why a shift in immigration policy to, say, cut the current immigration numbers by 80% would require any significant change in spending on borders and visa checks. We already spend on those. If the government wanted, they could just give out fewer visas.

There are other reasons why that might not be a good idea. I work in the university sector and we'd be f****d if there was a large drop in overseas student numbers.

If the universities want to attract more foreign students, then perhaps they should be building somewhere for them to live?

They are doing, contributing to the housing crisis in university cities and towns. They are far more profitable for developers than standard flats, and they eat up what space is available.

The only way they’d be contributing to a crisis, is if the student numbers (including their dependents), are going up faster than the new housing. You need to tie the numbers together, so that it’s on the university to make sure they have enough accommodation for the numbers enrolling. Want more students, then first build more housing.

I think the current presumption is that capitalism works. Students need accommodation, so demand is increased, so supply will increase.

Definitely happening. Just look at Newcastle or Durham over the last few years. Student digs are increasing.

Whether it is enough or not, is another matter.

Definitely not enough in Durham. I know it's a small town, but... https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/23073781.durham-university-student-housing-crisis-worsens-students-queue-overnight/