politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win

What's been the biggest Tory lead this year? I'm pretty sure I remember some 2%s, has there been a 3%?

Danny565 said:

What's been the biggest Tory lead this year? I'm pretty sure I remember some 2%s, has there been a 3%?

2% is the highest this year.

SeanT said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

"The Tower of
London poppies are fake, trite and inward-looking – a Ukip-style memorial"

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2014/oct/28/tower-of-london-poppies-ukip-remembrance-day

That article sums up everything that is wrong with the Left, the Guardian, journalism, art criticism, political correctness, the impact of the internet, political writing, and critic Jonathan Jones, in a neat 800 words.

A specious piece of stupid, wrong headed, wearyingly predictable yet offensive drivel written solely, and badly, for clicks.

"written solely, and badly, for clicks."

At #1 of the most viewed list, it appears to achieved its purpose.

What the writer doesn't seem to understand is this: We know war is horrible, most adults do; what we choose to remember is the sacrifice and what that means for us today.

Easterross said:

Henry's tip was mentioned on the news tonight.

Lol

Welcome Derek! Another de-lurker.. It would be interesting if you are right. Very interesting!

The working week starts on Monday anyway so Me and Ms Brisky well all clear.

JBriskin, I am sure i can arrange the sum. Zimbabwe Dollars OK?

I didn't realise I needed 2 bn posts? Like all good bankers, you need an audit trail!

Interesting local by-election news. There were opportunities for Greens and UKIP to force by-elections in Broxtowe for two seats (town and borough councils) that will anyway come up in May - both fall just short of the 6-month rule.

The Greens decided to let it go, but UKIP have called one (caused by the sad death of a well-liked Tory councillor) at short notice, probably December 11. It's in Toton, which is an interesting place because: (1) It's the proposed site of the Midlands HS2 terminal, though the HS2 team is now having doubts) (2) It's the location of 500 houses to be built on Green Belt, approved by the Lab/Lib council in compliance with national plans required by the Government Inspector (3) It's the strongest Tory ward in Broxtowe - lots and lots of middle-income commuter homes. The Tories were keen to let it ride to May, but any two voters can force an election, of course. It was probably UKIP's best shot to get on the local electoral map.

Boles narrowed the gap on Labour in 2005.
By about 2500 votes.

midwinter said:

Boles narrowed the gap on Labour in 2005.
By about 2500 votes.

His vote share went down...

Socrates said:

peter_from_putney said:

Daily Telegraph:

"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership.
The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."

Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?

Two things to take away from this:

1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public

2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum

The LDs would have probably still blocked it even if Cameron had said he would reform the Bedroom Tax. They have form on this

I think Labour will shade it by 1.34%

Socrates said:

peter_from_putney said:

Daily Telegraph:

"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership.
The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."

Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?

Two things to take away from this:

1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public

2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum

What democratic will expressed where ?

midwinter said:

Boles narrowed the gap on Labour in 2005.
By about 2500 votes.

midwinter said:

Boles narrowed the gap on Labour in 2005.
By about 2500 votes.

Um. Have you even looked at the result? That was entirely down to the Labour vote shedding to the Lib Dems, and to a lesser extent the Greens. Boles' own vote decreased - decreased, that is, from the Conservative share achieved in 2001. One of the worst general election results in the history of the party.

Without the decrease that Boles achieved, the Conservatives would have won:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hove_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

philiph said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

philiph said:

state_go_away said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

David Mitchell isn't left wing either afaik. I remember watching a QI special on the EU that was basically a PR puff piece -every single question/answer was in fact designed to 'explode' a 'myth'. As if Europe had never produced a single poor or ridiculous piece of regulation. David Mitchell was very good at getting the odd 'off message' comment in there amongst the abysmal dross.

Plato said:

Michael McIntyre seems to be one and the exception that proves the rule.

Casino_Royale said:

Socrates said:

I've never heard of Andrew Lawrence before, but his Facebook page is great:

"Andrew Lawrence
8 hours ago
The reason there are no right-leaning comics in this country is because whenever one has the balls to stand-up, they become the target of a witch-hunt. Where there should be balance, there is, terrifyingly, censorship."

Quite right. But I would like someone inbetween the Boyles/Brookers and Jim Davidson/Bernard Manning.

A brave, well-informed intelligent centre-right comedian who can satirise to pieces the sanctimonious left-wing comics, deny them the moral high-ground, and tie their tongues in knots through creative wit and riposte.

I'd go and see them every night.

David Mitchell is too intelligent to be the lazy'right-on' type . Again I don't think he is politically inclined yet he is obviously politically aware. I think above all he likes things to be logical

David is exactly what Victoria tells him to be. Who could disobey Ms Coren-Mitchell and survive?

So that's why she's Coren-Mitchell now! (Sorry saw the beginning of HIGNY last night and wondered why she isn't plain Victoria Coren.)

Indeed it is.

Was she ever 'plain' Victoria Coren?

She looks OK

better than ok, and she loves po ker too... whats not to like

SeanT said:

antifrank said:

SeanT said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

"The Tower of London poppies are fake, trite and inward-looking – a Ukip-style memorial"

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2014/oct/28/tower-of-london-poppies-ukip-remembrance-day

That article sums up everything that is wrong with the Left, the Guardian, journalism, art criticism, political correctness, the impact of the internet, political writing, and critic Jonathan Jones, in a neat 800 words.

A specious piece of stupid, wrong headed, wearyingly predictable yet offensive drivel written solely, and badly, for clicks.

Jonathan Jones doesn't seem to mind the understated approach of Rachel Whiteread:

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2012/dec/14/rachel-whiteread-greatest-british-artist

But her Holocaust memorial in Vienna doesn't really fit with his thesis that we need to have our noses rubbed in the awfulness of horror:

http://omstreifer.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/p1110747.jpg

It's hard to escape the conclusion that he's being controversial for its own sake.

Thing is, he's not even being amusingly or wittily controversial, and his clickbait is devoid of panache or verve or indeed any redeeming features whatsoever. And then there's the awful, laboured, clumsily crowbarred reference to UKIP (UKIP???) to give it some fake political relevance and, yes, generate more clicks.

A dismal screed of silliness which says far more about the palpable desperation of the writer and the losing-£30m-a-year Guardian than it does about anything else.

It's a shockingly offensive piece. But we get this stuff round about Remembrance Day every year in left-wing journals, like clockwork.

Next: why white poppies are better, and how newsreaders encourage poppy fascism.

AndyJS said:

Where's tonight's YouGov?

They're keeping it under wraps because the 8% Tory lead will be too earth-shattering for mere mortals.

Socrates said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

peter_from_putney said:

Daily Telegraph:

"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership.
The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."

Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?

Two things to take away from this:

1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public

2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum

What democratic will expressed where ?

The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.

Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Socrates said:

The absurdity of making "extreme porn" an offence:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/man-cleared-porn-possession-tiger-sex-video-revealed-costume-article-1.1989701

It's ruined an innocent man's life, got him branded a paedophile, and broke up his relationship with his daughter. I hope the scumbags like Harriet Harman are pleased with themselves.

Meanwhile, the police don't bother to investigate actually paedophiles and 1400 kids get raped.

I agree that we have to stop politicians simply creating new criminal offences whenever they want to look tough, and get them to actually concentrate on the crimes that cause real harm and simply need existing laws enforced.

It's also disturbing that this man lost his job, etc, over this. What happened to him could happen to anyone.

This isn't the first time that this egregious law has been found wanting.
Look at the case of Simon Walsh (a mate of Charles of this parish) threads passim.
Plod and the CPS are happily wrecking lives all over the place.
IIRC Nick Palmer voted for it.

But think of the children! Adults must be treated like children to save the kiddies.

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

peter_from_putney said:

Daily Telegraph:

"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership.
The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."

Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?

Two things to take away from this:

1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public

2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum

What democratic will expressed where ?

The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.

Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?

UKIP winning seats and lib dems coming no where.

Socrates said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

peter_from_putney said:

Daily Telegraph:

"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership.
The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."

Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?

Two things to take away from this:

1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public

2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum

What democratic will expressed where ?

The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.

He's a mendacious, deceitful and spineless careerist leading a totally self-interested and hypocritical party.

After all the campaigning he did previously for an in/out EU referendum, and on opposing tuition fees, it's a wonder the Liberal Democrats are retaining any votes at all.

Allegra Stratton @BBCAllegra

I understand Labour going for huge push on immigration... Shadow cabinet and every Labour MP made to hold public mtg on immigration 1/

More bull and lies.

Until yougov comes, I looked around and found this weird article about Farage in this quite amusing and half crazy conservative american website:

http://www.mofopolitics.com/2014/10/25/ukips-nigel-farage-wins-over-obnoxious-protesters-with-shared-love-of-alex-jones/

BBC News (UK) ✔ @BBCNews

Wednesday's Guardian: "Immigration system in chaos" pic.twitter.com/Ur2McdzOx5 #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers via @suttonnick

WTF. 25 year old woman from Sparkbrook travels to Syria with one year old baby to fight for IS.

MarkSenior said:

Tykejohnno said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

peter_from_putney said:

Daily Telegraph:

"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership.
The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."

Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?

Two things to take away from this:

1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public

2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum

What democratic will expressed where ?

The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.

Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?

UKIP winning seats and lib dems coming no where.

Number of sets won by the Lib Dems in May council elections compared to number won by UKIP ? roughly 4 times as many .

Who won the tv debates on the EU issue,clegg or farage ? a lot of people interested then.

@Tykejohnno

'I understand Labour going for huge push on immigration... Shadow cabinet and every Labour MP made to hold public mtg on immigration'

They will have to repeat Ed's Heywood & Middleton statement 'I am very proud of Labour's record on immigration' .

When they say public meeting they mean the local Labour club.

Tykejohnno said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by one point: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%

Useless tories.

Hey ho, better luck tomorrow.

Newsnight leading with Labour's 30% shocker from yesterday.

chestnut said:

Shocker for the Tories.

Utterly devastating. I don't know how we'll cope.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndyJS said:

Where's tonight's YouGov?

I greedily devoured it just now.... Mmmmmmm.....

Sweet or savoury?

Tykejohnno said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by one point: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%

Useless tories.

Looks like I didn't eat it after all!

OGH must be happy with the expert on Newsnight who just predicted Con most votes, Lab most seats in a hung parliament.

Pong said:

chestnut said:

And this, purely by coincidence, finds it's way onto the front page of the BBC website

"Asian girls 'also victims of sex grooming' in Rotherham"

Nope, that's actually a way bigger story than the white care home girls, because it's so extensive.

Conservative Asian families are in many cases deeply, deeply sexually repressed. There are lots and lots and lots of secrets to come out over the next couple of decades.

In this new internet world where even the intel services can't keep stuff secret, we're going to have to confront all the dark areas of human behaviour. We'll find out stuff about our kids, our friends, our neighbours, our most trusted institutions and ultimately ourselves - that we probably don't want to know and won't want to confront.

Everywhere we look, there are victims. And we will keep on finding new victims.

If there's one positive thing, it's that we in the west are quite a bit further ahead in dealing with this than the rest of the world.

Is anyone not a victim?

Popcorn on 7/8 May 2015 - and probably for a few days after that - is the conclusion to draw from the pollster on Newsnight.

MarkSenior said:

Tykejohnno said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

peter_from_putney said:

Daily Telegraph:

"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership.
The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."

Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?

Two things to take away from this:

1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public

2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum

What democratic will expressed where ?

The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.

Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?

UKIP winning seats and lib dems coming no where.

Number of sets won by the Lib Dems in May council elections compared to number won by UKIP ? roughly 4 times as many .

Westminster by-elections:
LibDems 10 lost deposits from 18, with Rochester still to come.
UKIP only 4 lost deposits.

chestnut said:

Half of Labour voters in Rochester set to vote UKIP according to the Sun

I suspect it's a bit like Tories in Heywood swinging to UKIP - possibly the only chance to try a different party, ever. Most of us think of politics on a left-right axis, but many people in by-elections don't think like that. It's interesting to speculate why it didn't happen in Newark, but of course the UKIP tide is stronger now.

NickPalmer said:

chestnut said:

Half of Labour voters in Rochester set to vote UKIP according to the Sun

I suspect it's a bit like Tories in Heywood swinging to UKIP - possibly the only chance to try a different party, ever. Most of us think of politics on a left-right axis, but many people in by-elections don't think like that. It's interesting to speculate why it didn't happen in Newark, but of course the UKIP tide is stronger now.

Helmer was too extreme combined with the seat being middle-class.

Labour by 3.99%

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Tykejohnno said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

MarkSenior said:

Socrates said:

peter_from_putney said:

Daily Telegraph:

"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership.
The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."

Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?

Two things to take away from this:

1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public

2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum

What democratic will expressed where ?

The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.

Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?

UKIP winning seats and lib dems coming no where.

Number of sets won by the Lib Dems in May council elections compared to number won by UKIP ? roughly 4 times as many .

Westminster by-elections:
LibDems 10 lost deposits from 18, with Rochester still to come.
UKIP only 4 lost deposits.

Did the Greens save any deposits?

Pong said:

chestnut said:

And this, purely by coincidence, finds it's way onto the front page of the BBC website

"Asian girls 'also victims of sex grooming' in Rotherham"

Nope, that's actually a way bigger story than the white care home girls, because it's so extensive.

Conservative Asian families are in many cases deeply, deeply sexually repressed. There are lots and lots and lots of secrets to come out over the next couple of decades.

In this new internet world where even the intel services can't keep stuff secret, we're going to have to confront all the dark areas of human behaviour. We'll find out stuff about our kids, our friends, our neighbours, our most trusted institutions and ultimately ourselves - that we probably don't want to know and won't want to confront.

Everywhere we look, there are victims. And we will keep on finding new victims.

If there's one positive thing, it's that we in the west are quite a bit further ahead in dealing with this than the rest of the world.

I am sure that you are right. Patriachal societies where women are punished for staining their families honour by being raped are pretty certain to have some pretty unpleasant secrets in their closets.

I think the surface has barely been scratched over abuse of women in parts of the world and also near at home.

There needs to be a lot of publicity on these cases so that other victims can speak out and the guilty named.

What exactly is Labour's stance on immigration?

Completely pointless of them to deploy a "huge push" on the issue, seeing as they are party least trusted on it - understandably so, after 13 years under Labour of unprecedented, uncontrolled immigration that has transformed the face of the communities lived in by the very people the party was founded to represent.

They are completely bankrupt on the issue. No one will listen to them on it.

'How Goldwater changed campaigns for ever' Fascinating article by Larry Sabato, in particular showing the close overlap between states where Goldwater won an above average voteshare and Romney won and states which gave LBJ an above average share of the vote which voted for Obama
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/barry-goldwater-lasting-legacy-112210.html#.VFAev4ZpUzx