It's ruined an innocent man's life, got him branded a paedophile, and broke up his relationship with his daughter. I hope the scumbags like Harriet Harman are pleased with themselves.
Meanwhile, the police don't bother to investigate actually paedophiles and 1400 kids get raped.
My theory is that it's less trouble to prosecute a crime when there's no victim.
Half of Labour voters in Rochester set to vote UKIP according to the Sun
Presumably to embarrass the tories. This is what you get when you split the right wing vote. Especially in by-elections where in this case you are not actually going to change the sitting candidate if you succeed. I do not really see the linkage with a general election where you would more likely be voting for a Helmer type candidate
It's ruined an innocent man's life, got him branded a paedophile, and broke up his relationship with his daughter. I hope the scumbags like Harriet Harman are pleased with themselves.
Meanwhile, the police don't bother to investigate actually paedophiles and 1400 kids get raped.
My theory is that it's less trouble to prosecute a crime when there's no victim.
Still no convictions for FGM 30 years after it was made illegal.
Yeap the Tories in Rochester are joining the fate on the latest american rocket, and the Tories will be all like what NASA just said on the latest rocket explosion half hour ago "an anomaly occured".
"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership. The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."
Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?
Two things to take away from this:
1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public
2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum
What democratic will expressed where ?
The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.
Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?
UKIP winning seats and lib dems coming no where.
Number of sets won by the Lib Dems in May council elections compared to number won by UKIP ? roughly 4 times as many .
Who won the tv debates on the EU issue,clegg or farage ? a lot of people interested then.
Were there a lot of people interested in the EU debates and how many said who had won based solely on the EU ?.
I could turn that around on you on Rochester and Strood ,how many people who are going to vote ukip,are voting because of the EU ? and the most pro EU party,the lib dems,where will they come in the vote ?
On the EU tv debates -
OK then,not solely based on the EU,it must have been cleggs crapness had something to do with it,he got a hammered.
;-)
Of course antipathy towards the EU is one of the reasons people vote UKIP as are Immigration , pure racism , general dislike of all politicians and a variety of other reasons . None of this is evidence for there being a democratic will or need for a referendum on the EU or any other matter at this time .
@MarkSenior posted - Of course antipathy towards the EU is one of the reasons people vote UKIP as are Immigration , pure racism '
Wow, I hope the lib dems have that as a poster campaign.
"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership. The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."
Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?
Two things to take away from this:
1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public
2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum
What democratic will expressed where ?
The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.
Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?
UKIP winning seats and lib dems coming no where.
Number of sets won by the Lib Dems in May council elections compared to number won by UKIP ? roughly 4 times as many .
Westminster by-elections: LibDems 10 lost deposits from 18, with Rochester still to come. UKIP only 4 lost deposits.
Did the Greens save any deposits?
No they didn't. Best they managed was Cardiff South 4.1%
"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership. The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."
Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?
Two things to take away from this:
1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public
2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum
What democratic will expressed where ?
The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.
Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?
UKIP winning seats and lib dems coming no where.
Number of sets won by the Lib Dems in May council elections compared to number won by UKIP ? roughly 4 times as many .
Westminster by-elections: LibDems 10 lost deposits from 18, with Rochester still to come. UKIP only 4 lost deposits.
Did the Greens save any deposits?
The Greens haven't saved any deposits, but I didn't count how many of the by-elections they have contested - and thus the number of deposits lost.
It is the simple fact that for the benefit of the country as a whole we formed a coalition government with a party hated by 2/3rds of the voters and who cannot win a majority on its own . The Lib Dems are now sharing in the natural anti Conservative hatred .
If, for the sake of argument, we accept that analysis, why in heaven's name have the LibDems spent the last four years (not to mention the period before the election) stoking up the irrational hatred of the party they are in coalition with? It makes absolutely zero sense from the LibDems' point of view; the more you attack your coalition partners as hateful, the more you invite the question: So why are you propping them up in government?
I really, really don't understand the LibDem positioning. You should be celebrating the coalition - the form of government you've been advocating for the last half-century - rather than looking as though it's some kind of natural disaster.
Unsurprisingly, voters seem to have taken the hint that you are miserable in coalition, and, out of kindness, will do their best to put you out of your misery in May.
What makes it even more incomprehensible is that there is huge amount to celebrate about the coalition. The LibDem strategy seems to be to attract all the unpopularity and take no credit for the achievements. It's bizarre.
"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership. The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."
Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?
Two things to take away from this:
1) Nick Clegg has complete contempt for the democratic will of the UK public
2) David Cameron cares more about the bedroom tax than an EU referendum
What democratic will expressed where ?
The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.
Where is the evidence that the British parliamentary system needs an EU referendum at this particular time ?
UKIP winning seats and lib dems coming no where.
Number of sets won by the Lib Dems in May council elections compared to number won by UKIP ? roughly 4 times as many .
Westminster by-elections: LibDems 10 lost deposits from 18, with Rochester still to come. UKIP only 4 lost deposits.
Did the Greens save any deposits?
No they didn't. Best they managed was Cardiff South 4.1%
They did boost their % in all but one by-election they contested, Bradford West is the exception. The general point still stands though, I'd agree.
Yeap the Tories in Rochester are joining the fate on the latest american rocket, and the Tories will be all like what NASA just said on the latest rocket explosion half hour ago "an anomaly occured".
How queer. I was just reading online about the Apollo missions and the sad ends to Challenger and Columbia (including watching the cockpit video of the last few minutes in the latter) and then you cropped up with that! Had no idea about Antares, let alone that its launcg was imminent.
"David Cameron's bid to enshrine an EU referendum in law has been dramatically blocked by Nick Clegg in a major blow to his efforts to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership. The Prime Minister was forced to drop legislation tying the next government to holding an in-out EU vote after Mr Clegg demanded reform of the so-called Bedroom Tax as his price for support."
Is this the beginning of the end of the coalition?
The democratic will that would have been expressed in an EU referendum, except Nick Clegg doesn't want the public to have their say. Perhaps he should change the party name to Elitist Autocrats.
He's a mendacious, deceitful and spineless careerist leading a totally self-interested and hypocritical party.
After all the campaigning he did previously for an in/out EU referendum, and on opposing tuition fees, it's a wonder the Liberal Democrats are retaining any votes at all.
Oh Dear another embittered pb tory who 4 years on still cannot get his head round the fact that his party did not win the last GE .
What is it about the party of Clegg that has supporters abandoning it in droves? Why is it so massively unpopular?
It is the simple fact that for the benefit of the country as a whole we formed a coalition government with a party hated by 2/3rds of the voters and who cannot win a majority on its own . The Lib Dems are now sharing in the natural anti Conservative hatred .History may or may not change these perceptions post the next GE .
A pretty specious analysis. By your summary 90% of voters hate the libdems. 75& hated them in 2010. The fact is that a load of anti war peacenic Blair hating and other lefty bigots gave their votes to the LDs. Loads of people who are only interested in voting to protest were shocked at the LDs having the nerve to help form a govt. If they had formed a govt with Labour all the hand wringing anti socialist LDs would have left . This is what you get when you try to ride two horses at the same time.
Oh - as for tying the hands of the next govt etc ... as per previous comments. A conservsative majority govt does not need to have its hands tied in order to renegotiate and offer a referendum. So it hardly matters. And any parliament if it can find the majority - ie a labour one - can vote to repeal legislation. The only way we will get a referendum is to vote Conservative.
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Yeap the Tories in Rochester are joining the fate on the latest american rocket, and the Tories will be all like what NASA just said on the latest rocket explosion half hour ago "an anomaly occured".
Coo, how clever of them to do it at night for a better view (and only a week before Guy Fawkes). I also see they have live feed of the view of the Earth from the ISS lower in the page, though no map so one has to work it out ....
Yeap the Tories in Rochester are joining the fate on the latest american rocket, and the Tories will be all like what NASA just said on the latest rocket explosion half hour ago "an anomaly occured".
Coo, how clever of them to do it at night for a better view (and only a week before Guy Fawkes). I also see they have live feed of the view of the Earth from the ISS lower in the page, though no map so one has to work it out ....
Some rocket disasters have been particularly bad, I'm reminded of that one in the Soviet Union where loads of scientists/technicians died because the rocket accidentally exploded on the launch pad.
It is the simple fact that for the benefit of the country as a whole we formed a coalition government with a party hated by 2/3rds of the voters and who cannot win a majority on its own . The Lib Dems are now sharing in the natural anti Conservative hatred .
If, for the sake of argument, we accept that analysis, why in heaven's name have the LibDems spent the last four years (not to mention the period before the election) stoking up the irrational hatred of the party they are in coalition with? It makes absolutely zero sense from the LibDems' point of view; the more you attack your coalition partners as hateful, the more you invite the question: So why are you propping them up in government?
I really, really don't understand the LibDem positioning. You should be celebrating the coalition - the form of government you've been advocating for the last half-century - rather than looking as though it's some kind of natural disaster.
Unsurprisingly, voters seem to have taken the hint that you are miserable in coalition, and, out of kindness, will do their best to put you out of your misery in May.
What makes it even more incomprehensible is that there is huge amount to celebrate about the coalition. The LibDem strategy seems to be to attract all the unpopularity and take no credit for the achievements. It's bizarre.
There are a fair number of LDs both in parliament and outside that have supported Conservative coalitionistas. Supporting colleagues is not political news, hunting down trivial differences is. Nothing new under the sun there really.
Shadow cabinet minister supports leader = ho hum
Shadow cabinet minister criticises leader = front page
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
The Lib Dems' card has been marked since 2010. I actually think it goes back further than the tuition fees fiasco -- that only kicked off in September 2010, by which time the Lib Dems' poll ratings had already halved from their election performance. After they signed up to Tory economic plans which atleast half of their 2010 voters were viscerally opposed to, there was simply no way back for them.
The irony is that Clegg has actually succeeded in remaking the party's voters in his own image. If you look at opinion polls, the remaining Lib Dem voters are actually pretty fiscally conservative (they're usually to the right of UKIP voters on economic issues/public spending) while also being the most left-wing of any party's voters on immigration and Europe. But the problem is that the fiscally conservative/social liberal bank of votes is just very small in this country -- the shrinking number of people who are in favour of Thatcherite economics will usually also be socially conservative, while the small number of people who are liberal on immigration and the EU will usually also be furious at the way the government has beat up the poor and public services. The exact opposite of the Lib Dems' current stance (socially conservative / old socialist on economics) is where the mainstream opinion is, and the smarter people on UKIP are seemingly starting to realise that.
My prediction, Labour will win narrowly, with a 3.7% lead over UKIP. There'll be significant vote transfer from the Conservatives to UKIP, as the candidate most likely to unseat Labour, but there aren't quite enough Conservative voters in the county for this to push UKIP into first place.
Publicly, Labour will say all that matters is that they won. Privately, many Labour MPs will get a little nervous.
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
And the Tories have been at or below 35% in all but one of said polls
Well there should be one, now that the Tories have selected a candidate.
The last Rochester poll had fieldwork that took four days to complete. If, for example, fieldwork started yesterday, then the poll results wouldn't be published until Friday.
Nope, that's actually a way bigger story than the white care home girls, because it's so extensive.
Conservative Asian families are in many cases deeply, deeply sexually repressed. There are lots and lots and lots of secrets to come out over the next couple of decades.
In this new internet world where even the intel services can't keep stuff secret, we're going to have to confront all the dark areas of human behaviour. We'll find out stuff about our kids, our friends, our neighbours, our most trusted institutions and ultimately ourselves - that we probably don't want to know and won't want to confront.
Everywhere we look, there are victims. And we will keep on finding new victims.
If there's one positive thing, it's that we in the west are quite a bit further ahead in dealing with this than the rest of the world.
I suspect that most of us, and most of our kids, aren't child molesters.
Nope, that's actually a way bigger story than the white care home girls, because it's so extensive.
Conservative Asian families are in many cases deeply, deeply sexually repressed. There are lots and lots and lots of secrets to come out over the next couple of decades.
You spouted this nonsense last night.
If children are being assaulted, you can hardly accuse the perpetrators of being 'repressed', can you?
As for it being a bigger story, no it isn't, despite the numbers. If it were, then certain child abuse scandals in the recent past would not have achieved the traction that they did because the numbers were so much smaller than those occurring within families.
Quite so. There are plenty of sexually repressed people out there. Most of them don't react to it by raping kids. That's because they have a basic humanity to them. Those who are steeped in this horrible misogynistic culture have more hate than humanity.
My prediction, Labour will win narrowly, with a 3.7% lead over UKIP. There'll be significant vote transfer from the Conservatives to UKIP, as the candidate most likely to unseat Labour, but there aren't quite enough Conservative voters in the county for this to push UKIP into first place.
Publicly, Labour will say all that matters is that they won. Privately, many Labour MPs will get a little nervous.
I still doubt Labour will lose seats to Ukip. However losing votes is still a problem. If they get fewer votes than the Tories in a hung parliament, it won't look good. A Labour majority with a very low vote share will mean Ed struggling for legitimacy from the start and put in peril their beloved FPTP which has served them so well.
My prediction, Labour will win narrowly, with a 3.7% lead over UKIP. There'll be significant vote transfer from the Conservatives to UKIP, as the candidate most likely to unseat Labour, but there aren't quite enough Conservative voters in the county for this to push UKIP into first place.
Publicly, Labour will say all that matters is that they won. Privately, many Labour MPs will get a little nervous.
I've been among the first to put the boot in to Labour's (many) poor performances in recent months, but personally I really don't think something as irrelevant as a PCC by-election would be much cause for concern.
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
And the Tories have been at or below 35% in all but one of said polls
The Coalition polls at 40% in tonight's YouGov. A commanding 7% lead over Labour...
' Supporting colleagues is not political news, hunting down trivial differences is. Nothing new under the sun there really.
But what's absurd is debating & voting for policies such as the NHS reforms, bedroom tax etc and then turning round a few months later saying you don't support them.
Clegg seems to be the perfect fit for Tony Benn's description of weathercocks.
My prediction, Labour will win narrowly, with a 3.7% lead over UKIP. There'll be significant vote transfer from the Conservatives to UKIP, as the candidate most likely to unseat Labour, but there aren't quite enough Conservative voters in the county for this to push UKIP into first place.
Publicly, Labour will say all that matters is that they won. Privately, many Labour MPs will get a little nervous.
I still doubt Labour will lose seats to Ukip. However losing votes is still a problem. If they get fewer votes than the Tories in a hung parliament, it won't look good. A Labour majority with a very low vote share will mean Ed struggling for legitimacy from the start and put in peril their beloved FPTP which has served them so well.
I also am doubtful that Labour will lose (m)any seats that they currently hold to UKIP next year, but the issue is that they will stop Labour gaining seats they need -- both directly with UKIP leapfrogging Labour into first place (Thurrock being the obvious example), but also indirectly by taking votes off Labour in crucial Con-Lab marginals, which could allow the Tories to hold on with reduced shares of the vote.
Speedy In part, but Goldwater capitalised on that and first gave voice to the anti big government, traditional values conservatism which now dominates the GOP today and was a forerunner of the Tea Party
Yeap the Tories in Rochester are joining the fate on the latest american rocket, and the Tories will be all like what NASA just said on the latest rocket explosion half hour ago "an anomaly occured".
Coo, how clever of them to do it at night for a better view (and only a week before Guy Fawkes). I also see they have live feed of the view of the Earth from the ISS lower in the page, though no map so one has to work it out ....
Some rocket disasters have been particularly bad, I'm reminded of that one in the Soviet Union where loads of scientists/technicians died because the rocket accidentally exploded on the launch pad.
Indeed. You mean the N1 presumably - the planned moon rocket?
Re the ISS, have found a live location tracker to compare with the live feed photos (when it's not dark) on that link:
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by one point: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%
Useless tories.
ARF!!!!
Actually if you look at the figures - there is an absolute swing of 1% FROM Labour to the Conservatives. (5% Labour --> Tory, 4% Tory --> Labour)
I can't find the data tables on the YouGov website. Do you have a link?
Also, you do realise that 4% of the Tory 2010 vote is more than 4% of the Labour 2010 vote, so it's possible that the figures you cite show no net swing at all.
I literally only just arrived at this thread a minute ago (2 minutes before the deadline) so I have not had time to read through the thread to ascertain whether the prediction is supposed to refer to the voting %ages in the first round, or the result in the 2nd round. Whichever it was, is not made clear in the thingy at the top. I hope my prediction is clear enough.
Labour will stitch up the postal votes as per usual and will gain an undeserved 40% of the vote. The Tories will get about 15%. The other 45% will be split between UKIP and the English Democrats.
South Yorkshire Police is in desperate need of sorting out. Unfortunately UKIP have picked an ex South Yorkshire Police Inspector, (you know, like the ones who covered up all the child abuse in Rotherham and elsewhere) as their man. He won't take on his ex-colleagues.
The best man for the job is David Allen, the EDP candidate who I believe would genuinely sort out the mess.
However UKIP are throwing money at the election so if they come second they will pick up most of the EDP and Tory votes and overtake Labour. Sadly, if coming second the EDP probably wouldn't get enough second preference votes to overtake Labour, but fingers crossed!
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
And the Tories have been at or below 35% in all but one of said polls
The Coalition polls at 40% in tonight's YouGov. A commanding 7% lead over Labour...
I literally only just arrived at this thread a minute ago (2 minutes before the deadline) so I have not had time to read through the thread to ascertain whether the prediction is supposed to refer to the voting %ages in the first round, or the result in the 2nd round. Whichever it was, is not made clear in the thingy at the top. I hope my prediction is clear enough.
It is the "winning" percentage margin. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round then there is no second round, otherwise the winning candidate is only determined after the second round.
My prediction, Labour will win narrowly, with a 3.7% lead over UKIP. There'll be significant vote transfer from the Conservatives to UKIP, as the candidate most likely to unseat Labour, but there aren't quite enough Conservative voters in the county for this to push UKIP into first place.
Publicly, Labour will say all that matters is that they won. Privately, many Labour MPs will get a little nervous.
I still doubt Labour will lose seats to Ukip. However losing votes is still a problem. If they get fewer votes than the Tories in a hung parliament, it won't look good. A Labour majority with a very low vote share will mean Ed struggling for legitimacy from the start and put in peril their beloved FPTP which has served them so well.
I also am doubtful that Labour will lose (m)any seats that they currently hold to UKIP next year, but the issue is that they will stop Labour gaining seats they need -- both directly with UKIP leapfrogging Labour into first place (Thurrock being the obvious example), but also indirectly by taking votes off Labour in crucial Con-Lab marginals, which could allow the Tories to hold on with reduced shares of the vote.
That would be surprising. Although I think UKIP have been taking more from Labour than before recently, every single poll has shown that they take disproportionately more from the Conservatives, at a roughly 2:1 ratio. By-elections have different dynamics - after all the reports that the Tories will be in terrible trouble if they lose Rochester to UKIP, the temptation for Labour voters is obvious, and the barrage of Tory literature may just have reinforced that.
But it's really hard to see what the UKIP vote will be doing by May and who it'll be doing it to. It may vary a lot by constituency - a large part of the Labour vote in suburban marginals and London is AB demographic and/or ethnic minority, and both are largely allergic to UKIP, but it is very different in some places. The GE may turn out to be rather like 650 by-elections, each with its own dynamic.
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
And the Tories have been at or below 35% in all but one of said polls
The Coalition polls at 40% in tonight's YouGov. A commanding 7% lead over Labour...
A Coalition which wil last barely 6 more months!
Suppose the 2015GE ends with this sort of result, except that UKIP take a few seats from the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems also hang on to a few seats they were defending against the COnservatives (and perhaps the SNP take a few Labour seats).
The only majority government possible is yet again a Con-Lib Coalition. Nick Clegg, triumphant.
Wednesday's Guardian: "Immigration system in chaos" pic.twitter.com/Ur2McdzOx5 #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers via @suttonnick
Calamity May strikes again.
Ms May has hitherto managed to leave most of the perceived chaos of her predecessors behind.
This time, it appears to have caught up with her.
Little worse than the past but just as damaging.
Same old story, immigration controls can't do what the voters think they should be able to do, so the unlucky person in charge of them always looks incompetent.
Nope, that's actually a way bigger story than the white care home girls, because it's so extensive.
Conservative Asian families are in many cases deeply, deeply sexually repressed. There are lots and lots and lots of secrets to come out over the next couple of decades.
You spouted this nonsense last night.
If children are being assaulted, you can hardly accuse the perpetrators of being 'repressed', can you?
As for it being a bigger story, no it isn't, despite the numbers. If it were, then certain child abuse scandals in the recent past would not have achieved the traction that they did because the numbers were so much smaller than those occurring within families.
Quite so. There are plenty of sexually repressed people out there. Most of them don't react to it by raping kids. That's because they have a basic humanity to them. Those who are steeped in this horrible misogynistic culture have more hate than humanity.
I think you've misunderstood me there - I was referring to the repression/shaming of the victims themselves by the family/wider community.
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
And the Tories have been at or below 35% in all but one of said polls
The Coalition polls at 40% in tonight's YouGov. A commanding 7% lead over Labour...
A Coalition which wil last barely 6 more months!
Suppose the 2015GE ends with this sort of result, except that UKIP take a few seats from the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems also hang on to a few seats they were defending against the COnservatives (and perhaps the SNP take a few Labour seats).
The only majority government possible is yet again a Con-Lib Coalition. Nick Clegg, triumphant.
The Tories will gain 10 seats overall? Despite polling less than in 2010?
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
And the Tories have been at or below 35% in all but one of said polls
The Coalition polls at 40% in tonight's YouGov. A commanding 7% lead over Labour...
A Coalition which wil last barely 6 more months!
Suppose the 2015GE ends with this sort of result, except that UKIP take a few seats from the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems also hang on to a few seats they were defending against the COnservatives (and perhaps the SNP take a few Labour seats).
The only majority government possible is yet again a Con-Lib Coalition. Nick Clegg, triumphant.
Labour are vacuous and Miliband dreadful but I can't see them doing worse than in 2010 in terms of percentage of the vote, no way.
Just watched the first episode of The Wire 12 years after it was originally broadcast. Interesting to see pagers featuring prominently as the latest tech-craze. About five years behind the UK I think; we were already using mobiles in 2002.
I don't know, although The Sun have a report saying 50% of Labour voters in Rochester are switching to UKIP, which implies a bigger UKIP win than hitherto indicated by the polls.
[It may be a platitude that childhood is precious, but that does not make the statement any less correct. Our children, lest we forget, already work a five-day week, plus homework. Many have their “free” hours crammed with extra coaching. When they reach a certain age, they are expected to begin work experience. Surely this is enough by way of Bradian responsibility?]
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by one point: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%
Useless tories.
ARF!!!!
Actually if you look at the figures - there is an absolute swing of 1% FROM Labour to the Conservatives. (5% Labour --> Tory, 4% Tory --> Labour)
I can't find the data tables on the YouGov website. Do you have a link?
Also, you do realise that 4% of the Tory 2010 vote is more than 4% of the Labour 2010 vote, so it's possible that the figures you cite show no net swing at all.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by one point: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%
Useless tories.
ARF!!!!
Actually if you look at the figures - there is an absolute swing of 1% FROM Labour to the Conservatives. (5% Labour --> Tory, 4% Tory --> Labour)
I can't find the data tables on the YouGov website. Do you have a link?
Also, you do realise that 4% of the Tory 2010 vote is more than 4% of the Labour 2010 vote, so it's possible that the figures you cite show no net swing at all.
Note of change 5% of 30% = 1.5%: 4% of 37% = 1.48% - so about equal - but you can also see that Labour has lost very nearly the same percentage of votes to the Greens and SNP as the Tories have lost to UKIP. As ever the difference between then and now is the Lib-dem split. (Mind you was surprised so many switched from the most pro EU party to the least)
You may want to look at the Voting intention in Northern England
38 Labour 26 Con 26 Ukip
6 months ago it was
51 Lab 26 Con 11 UKIP
(that is a yougov poll at the end of April - not sure if methodology has changed. - but in effect Labour has lost 25% of its votes)
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
And the Tories have been at or below 35% in all but one of said polls
The Coalition polls at 40% in tonight's YouGov. A commanding 7% lead over Labour...
A Coalition which wil last barely 6 more months!
Suppose the 2015GE ends with this sort of result, except that UKIP take a few seats from the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems also hang on to a few seats they were defending against the COnservatives (and perhaps the SNP take a few Labour seats).
The only majority government possible is yet again a Con-Lib Coalition. Nick Clegg, triumphant.
Labour are vacuous and Miliband dreadful but I can't see them doing worse than in 2010 in terms of percentage of the vote, no way.
"The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris Johnson, 2003.
Can we please end this nonsense of Labour's 35% strategy? What exactly does that mean? That Ed Miliband has identified Labour's 2010 vote, added a quarter of the Lib Dem vote and now decided he's happy with what he has. I'm not convinced. I suspect Ed has wanted to add a fair few non-voters who were disillusioned with new labour as well as squeezing more of the 2010 Lib Dem vote. 30% of them are unsure what they'll do next time, surely Ed is targeting them?
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Does it matter? Labour have been below 35% in about two-thirds of the opinion polls this month.
And the Tories have been at or below 35% in all but one of said polls
The Coalition polls at 40% in tonight's YouGov. A commanding 7% lead over Labour...
A Coalition which wil last barely 6 more months!
Suppose the 2015GE ends with this sort of result, except that UKIP take a few seats from the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems also hang on to a few seats they were defending against the COnservatives (and perhaps the SNP take a few Labour seats).
The only majority government possible is yet again a Con-Lib Coalition. Nick Clegg, triumphant.
Labour are vacuous and Miliband dreadful but I can't see them doing worse than in 2010 in terms of percentage of the vote, no way.
"The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris Johnson, 2003.
Did you watch Newsnight Sunil? As has been slightly hinted at here it did seem very PB-centric.
I don't know, although The Sun have a report saying 50% of Labour voters in Rochester are switching to UKIP, which implies a bigger UKIP win than hitherto indicated by the polls.
Clearly it's the chance of bashing the Tories as a party that holds the real attraction for them. Reckless with his dangerous hard right views is certainly not someone I could ever personally vote for whatever the tactical attractions. Principles do hold some sway still for a few of us.
"If there are no aliens, humanity will never have to face the nightmarish xenomorphs of Alien (left), nor the benevolent E.T. from Speilberg's hit film"
Wednesday's Guardian: "Immigration system in chaos" pic.twitter.com/Ur2McdzOx5 #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers via @suttonnick
Calamity May strikes again.
Ms May has hitherto managed to leave most of the perceived chaos of her predecessors behind.
This time, it appears to have caught up with her.
Little worse than the past but just as damaging.
Same old story, immigration controls can't do what the voters think they should be able to do, so the unlucky person in charge of them always looks incompetent.
Looking at the regions where Labour outpoll the other parties- the ONLY regions are where there is a large immigrant vote. (London and, I suspect, certain areas of the North)
The Tories outpoll them in South England, Midlands and Wales and the SNP in Scotland. (A month ago Labour outpolled the Tories in the Midlands and Wales - which may suggest that LAs marginals polling may need reviewig)
[I bow to no one in my admiration for Karren Brady: her business acumen, her power coiffure, her ability to wither a wide boy with a mere glance from her gimlet eye. However, I cannot agree with her on the subject of forcing young people into the workplace, a principle she has espoused both in theory and in parental practice. Discussing her daughter Sophia’s employment, the business mogul recently decreed: “Saturday jobs teach you about responsibility.”]
Wednesday's Guardian: "Immigration system in chaos" pic.twitter.com/Ur2McdzOx5 #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers via @suttonnick
Calamity May strikes again.
Ms May has hitherto managed to leave most of the perceived chaos of her predecessors behind.
This time, it appears to have caught up with her.
Little worse than the past but just as damaging.
Same old story, immigration controls can't do what the voters think they should be able to do, so the unlucky person in charge of them always looks incompetent.
Wednesday's Guardian: "Immigration system in chaos" pic.twitter.com/Ur2McdzOx5 #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers via @suttonnick
Calamity May strikes again.
Ms May has hitherto managed to leave most of the perceived chaos of her predecessors behind.
This time, it appears to have caught up with her.
Little worse than the past but just as damaging.
Same old story, immigration controls can't do what the voters think they should be able to do, so the unlucky person in charge of them always looks incompetent.
Good Morning, Edmund, from Makuhari in Chiba !
See what I mean, immigration chaos at Narita, they're letting anybody in.
Let me know if you've got time to get a drink or something.
Yeap the Tories in Rochester are joining the fate on the latest american rocket, and the Tories will be all like what NASA just said on the latest rocket explosion half hour ago "an anomaly occured".
Coo, how clever of them to do it at night for a better view (and only a week before Guy Fawkes). I also see they have live feed of the view of the Earth from the ISS lower in the page, though no map so one has to work it out ....
Some rocket disasters have been particularly bad, I'm reminded of that one in the Soviet Union where loads of scientists/technicians died because the rocket accidentally exploded on the launch pad.
Indeed. You mean the N1 presumably - the planned moon rocket?
Re the ISS, have found a live location tracker to compare with the live feed photos (when it's not dark) on that link:
The Russian one in 1960 was hideous, with perhaps 70-150 people killed. They were trying to prepare an ICBM too quickly, and were performing maintenance to fix a problem after an aborted launch, with military top brass sitting nearby. For speed, they did not empty the rocket of fuel - in fact, there was no procedure to do so. Then the second stage ignited by accident, burning through the first stage directly below. There is video on the net. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nedelin_catastrophe
Nope, that's actually a way bigger story than the white care home girls, because it's so extensive.
Conservative Asian families are in many cases deeply, deeply sexually repressed. There are lots and lots and lots of secrets to come out over the next couple of decades.
You spouted this nonsense last night.
If children are being assaulted, you can hardly accuse the perpetrators of being 'repressed', can you?
As for it being a bigger story, no it isn't, despite the numbers. If it were, then certain child abuse scandals in the recent past would not have achieved the traction that they did because the numbers were so much smaller than those occurring within families.
Quite so. There are plenty of sexually repressed people out there. Most of them don't react to it by raping kids. That's because they have a basic humanity to them. Those who are steeped in this horrible misogynistic culture have more hate than humanity.
I think you've misunderstood me there - I was referring to the repression/shaming of the victims themselves by the family/wider community.
I agree with Pong. The experiences of Ruzwana Bashir when she came out about her experience of sexual abuse in Skipton are very worrying:
I would be concerned that in such a culture there will be a lot of similar stories left untold.
We are all appalled by these grooming gangs and their activities, but the scope of the abuse is pretty certain to go further than the white girls. I think it very unlikely that these abusers later settle down as perfect husbands or fathers, or sprang out of the ether as fully formed monsters. Their deep rooted misogyny is a product of a very sick sub culture.
' Supporting colleagues is not political news, hunting down trivial differences is. Nothing new under the sun there really.
But what's absurd is debating & voting for policies such as the NHS reforms, bedroom tax etc and then turning round a few months later saying you don't support them.
Clegg seems to be the perfect fit for Tony Benn's description of weathercocks.
The LibDems in coalition brought about major changes in the health reforms, they made pretty clear from the beginning that they were not happy with the original package.
The problem of removing the spare room subsidy is more subtle, and largely one of implementation. It is entirely reasonable to reassess the need for social housing periodically, and reallocate larger and smaller properties accordingly. The problem, and hard cases, come from removing the subsidy before there is alternative accommodation avaliable. The policy has saved little money and caused much misery and needs re-thinking. When even UKIP are wanting the policy reversed, it is clear that it is not only the LDs who think the policy is not working as desired.
I already bought the book and intend to read it today, so I'll predict this just for fun. I think Labour will win with a percentage margin of 0.74% over ukip. I'm basing this on the fact that if 50% of the ballots are postal as the time reports that is advantageous to Labour.
Too late for the competition but I never win competitions. PCC elections are run under the supplementary voting system so my first prediction is that no candidate will get over 50% immediately. The Con and ED votes which have indicated second preferences will then be redistributed between Labour and UKIP. I suspect that UKIP, even if second on the first round, will benefit from this and will finally win on 53%.
Comments
It has now been a fortnight since any poll gave Labour a lead of 4% (or more).
It has been more than a week since the Conservatives recorded less than 30% in an opinion poll.
This is what you get when you split the right wing vote. Especially in by-elections where in this case you are not actually going to change the sitting candidate if you succeed. I do not really see the linkage with a general election where you would more likely be voting for a Helmer type candidate
Live feed of the "anomaly" here:
http://www.space.com/17933-nasa-television-webcasts-live-space-tv.html
@MarkSenior posted - Of course antipathy towards the EU is one of the reasons people vote UKIP as are Immigration , pure racism '
Wow, I hope the lib dems have that as a poster campaign.
That world is over.
I really, really don't understand the LibDem positioning. You should be celebrating the coalition - the form of government you've been advocating for the last half-century - rather than looking as though it's some kind of natural disaster.
Unsurprisingly, voters seem to have taken the hint that you are miserable in coalition, and, out of kindness, will do their best to put you out of your misery in May.
What makes it even more incomprehensible is that there is huge amount to celebrate about the coalition. The LibDem strategy seems to be to attract all the unpopularity and take no credit for the achievements. It's bizarre.
If he can't get above 35% it's because he's not very good, not for want of trying. It's notable that there hasn't been a single credible leak that suggests this is what Labour is doing. It seems to just be a myth in the right wing press, who I suspect hate the idea that a route to number 10 exists without going through soft conservative voters.
Shadow cabinet minister supports leader = ho hum
Shadow cabinet minister criticises leader = front page
The irony is that Clegg has actually succeeded in remaking the party's voters in his own image. If you look at opinion polls, the remaining Lib Dem voters are actually pretty fiscally conservative (they're usually to the right of UKIP voters on economic issues/public spending) while also being the most left-wing of any party's voters on immigration and Europe. But the problem is that the fiscally conservative/social liberal bank of votes is just very small in this country -- the shrinking number of people who are in favour of Thatcherite economics will usually also be socially conservative, while the small number of people who are liberal on immigration and the EU will usually also be furious at the way the government has beat up the poor and public services. The exact opposite of the Lib Dems' current stance (socially conservative / old socialist on economics) is where the mainstream opinion is, and the smarter people on UKIP are seemingly starting to realise that.
Publicly, Labour will say all that matters is that they won. Privately, many Labour MPs will get a little nervous.
' Supporting colleagues is not political news, hunting down trivial differences is. Nothing new under the sun there really.
But what's absurd is debating & voting for policies such as the NHS reforms, bedroom tax etc and then turning round a few months later saying you don't support them.
Clegg seems to be the perfect fit for Tony Benn's description of weathercocks.
Farage will be laughing into his cereal.
This time, it appears to have caught up with her.
Little worse than the past but just as damaging.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/28/qatar-uk-fight-against-terrorism
Re the ISS, have found a live location tracker to compare with the live feed photos (when it's not dark) on that link:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iss-hdev-payload
Also, you do realise that 4% of the Tory 2010 vote is more than 4% of the Labour 2010 vote, so it's possible that the figures you cite show no net swing at all.
Labour will stitch up the postal votes as per usual and will gain an undeserved 40% of the vote.
The Tories will get about 15%.
The other 45% will be split between UKIP and the English Democrats.
South Yorkshire Police is in desperate need of sorting out. Unfortunately UKIP have picked an ex South Yorkshire Police Inspector, (you know, like the ones who covered up all the child abuse in Rotherham and elsewhere) as their man. He won't take on his ex-colleagues.
The best man for the job is David Allen, the EDP candidate who I believe would genuinely sort out the mess.
However UKIP are throwing money at the election so if they come second they will pick up most of the EDP and Tory votes and overtake Labour. Sadly, if coming second the EDP probably wouldn't get enough second preference votes to overtake Labour, but fingers crossed!
But it's really hard to see what the UKIP vote will be doing by May and who it'll be doing it to. It may vary a lot by constituency - a large part of the Labour vote in suburban marginals and London is AB demographic and/or ethnic minority, and both are largely allergic to UKIP, but it is very different in some places. The GE may turn out to be rather like 650 by-elections, each with its own dynamic.
The only majority government possible is yet again a Con-Lib Coalition. Nick Clegg, triumphant.
Expect: One paragraph
Guess who's back.
I shall read it first.
Swallow that up nighthawks!
[It may be a platitude that childhood is precious, but that does not make the statement any less correct. Our children, lest we forget, already work a five-day week, plus homework. Many have their “free” hours crammed with extra coaching. When they reach a certain age, they are expected to begin work experience. Surely this is enough by way of Bradian responsibility?]
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/life/article4250698.ece
Published 24 minutes ago
Note of change 5% of 30% = 1.5%: 4% of 37% = 1.48% - so about equal - but you can also see that Labour has lost very nearly the same percentage of votes to the Greens and SNP as the Tories have lost to UKIP. As ever the difference between then and now is the Lib-dem split. (Mind you was surprised so many switched from the most pro EU party to the least)
You may want to look at the Voting intention in Northern England
38 Labour
26 Con
26 Ukip
6 months ago it was
51 Lab
26 Con
11 UKIP
(that is a yougov poll at the end of April - not sure if methodology has changed. - but in effect Labour has lost 25% of its votes)
The Irony...
Real insight from the Daily Mail !
Looking at the regions where Labour outpoll the other parties- the ONLY regions are where there is a large immigrant vote. (London and, I suspect, certain areas of the North)
The Tories outpoll them in South England, Midlands and Wales and the SNP in Scotland. (A month ago Labour outpolled the Tories in the Midlands and Wales - which may suggest that LAs marginals polling may need reviewig)
[I bow to no one in my admiration for Karren Brady: her business acumen, her power coiffure, her ability to wither a wide boy with a mere glance from her gimlet eye. However, I cannot agree with her on the subject of forcing young people into the workplace, a principle she has espoused both in theory and in parental practice. Discussing her daughter Sophia’s employment, the business mogul recently decreed: “Saturday jobs teach you about responsibility.”]
Let me know if you've got time to get a drink or something.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nedelin_catastrophe
There was a bad one in Brazil in 2003, which killed several people:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VLS-1_V03
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/29/-sp-untold-story-culture-of-shame-ruzwana-bashir
I would be concerned that in such a culture there will be a lot of similar stories left untold.
We are all appalled by these grooming gangs and their activities, but the scope of the abuse is pretty certain to go further than the white girls. I think it very unlikely that these abusers later settle down as perfect husbands or fathers, or sprang out of the ether as fully formed monsters. Their deep rooted misogyny is a product of a very sick sub culture.
The problem of removing the spare room subsidy is more subtle, and largely one of implementation. It is entirely reasonable to reassess the need for social housing periodically, and reallocate larger and smaller properties accordingly. The problem, and hard cases, come from removing the subsidy before there is alternative accommodation avaliable. The policy has saved little money and caused much misery and needs re-thinking. When even UKIP are wanting the policy reversed, it is clear that it is not only the LDs who think the policy is not working as desired.
More common sense policies from Tony 'I actually won a majority' Abbot.
PCC elections are run under the supplementary voting system so my first prediction is that no candidate will get over 50% immediately. The Con and ED votes which have indicated second preferences will then be redistributed between Labour and UKIP. I suspect that UKIP, even if second on the first round, will benefit from this and will finally win on 53%.