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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Neil Findlay – Henry G Manson’s tip for next Scottish LAB l

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  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    JBriskin said:
    Hopefully the EU aren't using 2006 prices in their calculation of our GNI... titters.
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    Speaking about following proper procedures do we have any information as to vote totals in the 'open' Conservative Rochester primary ?

    Or know who organised it even ?

    I would have thought that if you are asking the general public to give some sort of legitimacy to an election that there are some minimum electoral standards which have to be met.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    edited October 2014
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    He should have been prepared for it to be a large amount

    Despite your swift edit, still not true.
    Oh the shame of a swift edit!!!

    Hahahaha

    Oh well at least he isn't in charge of anything that needs a sharp mind like running the country

    Being rich and posh doesn't get you out of playing by the rules like everyone else.. if he had any bottle and was that fired up about it, he'd leave

    Another Edit there.. oh the embarrassment!

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    Since the Dutch knew, and were setting aside funds for it, we can only speculate that our treasury did not do "due diligence" before the government signed on the dotted line?
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    RobD said:

    JBriskin said:
    Hopefully the EU aren't using 2006 prices in their calculation of our GNI... titters.
    Your avatar top secret as well??
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Speaking about following proper procedures do we have any information as to vote totals in the 'open' Conservative Rochester primary ?

    Or know who organised it even ?

    I would have thought that if you are asking the general public to give some sort of legitimacy to an election that there are some minimum electoral standards which have to be met.

    Michael Crick couldn't be bothered to investigate, sadly.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,950
    Have we got a ComRes poll tonight?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,118

    Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Same thing as a tax return, you tell the IR that you are only earning so much, then later you tell them you were earning more.
    Now, the time all this should have been discussed is well before, but it seems somewhere between the treasury, and the PM, "the eye was off the ball".
    His government were in meetings signing it off a fortnight ago.

    So you think Ed Miliband will pay it then?
    Whoever's elected will pay it. Even Farage would pay it. Cameron will just be hoping to delay the payment until after the election.
    Fact.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    JBriskin said:

    RobD said:

    JBriskin said:
    Hopefully the EU aren't using 2006 prices in their calculation of our GNI... titters.
    Your avatar top secret as well??
    Yes, Mother.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    edited October 2014
    Farage 4/7 to be in the debates

    Shrewdies must be all over the 5/4 not to be mustn't they?!

    "So if I put on £4 Mr Sky Bet, how much does that mean I get back?
    Am I laying you the bet or you to me? So if he appears do I win or...."

    click brrrrrrrr


    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/itv-four-way-debate-to-take-place
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    Since the Dutch knew, and were setting aside funds for it, we can only speculate that our treasury did not do "due diligence" before the government signed on the dotted line?

    Or alternatively that our GDP is so good and our unemployment rate so close to "perfect" that nobody in Whitehall really gives a flying fuck about a silly EU 2Bn Gbp bill...

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,596
    Betting: just put some dosh on Jeb Bush for US President and for being Rep candidate. Odds on Betfair are roughly 6/1 and 10/1 on these two events. My thinking is when he announces a run these will shorten considerably.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    RobD said:

    JBriskin said:

    RobD said:

    JBriskin said:
    Hopefully the EU aren't using 2006 prices in their calculation of our GNI... titters.
    Your avatar top secret as well??
    Yes, Mother.
    I honestly think I'd need Excel for us to be on the same side...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    needs a sharp mind

    PM, we have had a letter from the Treasury saying there will be the annual adjustment to the EU contribution this year.

    Does it say how much?

    Um...

    Well, that obviously means it will be a huge number, payable instantly.

    My sharp mind clairvoyance is really working here.


    I wish I had as much faith in Cameron's second sight as you do...
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    AndyJS said:

    Speaking about following proper procedures do we have any information as to vote totals in the 'open' Conservative Rochester primary ?

    Or know who organised it even ?

    I would have thought that if you are asking the general public to give some sort of legitimacy to an election that there are some minimum electoral standards which have to be met.

    Michael Crick couldn't be bothered to investigate, sadly.
    I'm amazed that this farce hasn't received more comment outside of a few specialist blogs.

    The debauching of the electoral process should be a concern of the 'quality' media.
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    kle4 said:

    Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Same thing as a tax return, you tell the IR that you are only earning so much, then later you tell them you were earning more.
    Now, the time all this should have been discussed is well before, but it seems somewhere between the treasury, and the PM, "the eye was off the ball".
    His government were in meetings signing it off a fortnight ago.

    So you think Ed Miliband will pay it then?
    Whoever's elected will pay it. Even Farage would pay it. Cameron will just be hoping to delay the payment until after the election.
    Fact.
    Quite so.

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    You would have thought someone in the treasury would have dug out the agreement and performed an impact assessment, perhaps they were to busy elsewhere?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    needs a sharp mind

    PM, we have had a letter from the Treasury saying there will be the annual adjustment to the EU contribution this year.

    Does it say how much?

    Um...

    Well, that obviously means it will be a huge number, payable instantly.

    My sharp mind clairvoyance is really working here.


    I wish I had as much faith in Cameron's second sight as you do...
    You want the PM to be the kind of punter that sees things before others do and gets the value early, not some shmuck who sees a poll come out, tries to get on out of date prices then moans when all his accounts are closed

    Proactive not reactive

    Maybe he isn't as good at it as he thought he might be
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    You would have thought someone in the treasury would have dug out the agreement and performed an impact assessment, perhaps they were to busy elsewhere?

    Seriously, Don't answer this Shite Scott P.

    When they start giving us a Civil Service salary for our genius we will answer. Until then - Let's just try and have us much fun as possible.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    You would have thought someone in the treasury would have dug out the agreement and performed an impact assessment, perhaps they were to busy elsewhere?

    Couldn't be done until they had the figures, which were not available.

    Apart from that, good point.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    You want the PM to be the kind of punter that sees things before others do and gets the value early

    You wanted him to guess a number 6 months in advance.

    Your faith in his ability is touching. Maybe he can give us the lottery numbers at PMQs?
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    They had someone signing it off, are you suggesting that they signed it without knowing?
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    They had someone signing it off, are you suggesting that they signed it without knowing?

    Smarmy-

    A - Nobody signed it. Ed is crap remember. The PB golden rule. Yes, even within the house of commons

    B - Cammo ain't paying no silly EU 2BN GBP Bill. Got it?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    You would have thought someone in the treasury would have dug out the agreement and performed an impact assessment, perhaps they were to busy elsewhere?

    EU Referendum seems to have the story.

    "...what I think has happened is that, guided by Directive 89/130/EEC and Decision 2014/335, the UK and other Member States have revised their GNIs retrospectively using ESA 2010, which has given rise to the adjustments recorded. But it must also be remembered that the procedure requires Member States to calculate their own GNIs, and send the results to the Commission. This is not something the Commission does for us – we do it for ourselves.

    Thus, as far as the awareness and the advance notice goes, my previous report would seem to be accurate (unless or until we see further developments). The UK was informed that changes were in progress. It is unlikely that Mr Cameron can claim that the Commissions was not entitled to the money it is claiming, as the sum is based on data provided by the UK – presumably calculated by the ONS - in accordance with well-established procedures. "

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85276
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Smarmeron said:

    They had someone signing it off

    Who signed off 1.7 billion Euros?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    You want the PM to be the kind of punter that sees things before others do and gets the value early

    You wanted him to guess a number 6 months in advance.

    Your faith in his ability is touching. Maybe he can give us the lottery numbers at PMQs?
    I'd like the man who runs our country to be able to ahead of the game rather than behind the 8 ball yes
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Same thing as a tax return, you tell the IR that you are only earning so much, then later you tell them you were earning more.
    Now, the time all this should have been discussed is well before, but it seems somewhere between the treasury, and the PM, "the eye was off the ball".
    His government were in meetings signing it off a fortnight ago.

    So you think Ed Miliband will pay it then?
    Whoever's elected will pay it. Even Farage would pay it. Cameron will just be hoping to delay the payment until after the election.
    I doubt it. This is becoming totemic. Cameron can't afford, politically, to pay the whole whack. The EU will know this.

    Expect a ridiculous eurosmudge. Some hugely complex formula whereby the UK "hookers n blow" Surcharge is reduced by £x00m, over a decade, blah blah, so the EU can claim the rules are being enforced and the UK can claim it has won a massive victory, and so forth.

    If the EU really does enforce full payment by December 1 and/or then successfully fines the UK for late payment, I will be entirely flabbergasted and electorally aroused, as it will ensure an enormous UKIP surge and increase the chances of Brexit (utterly dreaded by the EU) by about 50% overnight.
    Windfall nations [France] are going to want the UK to pay.
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [Expect a ridiculous eurosmudge. Some hugely complex formula whereby the UK "hookers n blow" Surcharge is reduced by £x00m, over a decade, blah blah, so the EU can claim the rules are being enforced and the UK can claim it has won a massive victory, and so forth.]

    It's probably some bod's spreadsheet and is well under control.

    Why aren't you on message Sean?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    I'd like the man who runs our country to be able to ahead of the game rather than behind the 8 ball yes

    So clairvoyance is something you want in a PM.

    Wow!
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:

    GeoffM said:

    But we agree that if you're in, you pay the subs.

    How much are the subs?
    Who knows? Even the subs for the years we've already paid are now being changed.
    And that's exactly the problem.
    But that's what we signed up to.
    BOO
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    @SeanT
    What's going on with the Telegraph's blogs today? There haven't been any new posts.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    They would have had all the calculations, or perhaps no one in the treasury knows about finances?
    No wonder we are fruked if our government signs on too things with no idea of the cost?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    edited October 2014
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    I'd like the man who runs our country to be able to ahead of the game rather than behind the 8 ball yes

    So clairvoyance is something you want in a PM.

    Wow!
    Being able to anticipate future problems using the evidence available isn't clairvoyance, it is competence

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,241
    Off-topic:

    One for Mr Dancer if he is around: using an old railway tunnel as a wind tunnel. And no, it's not April 1st.
    http://www.racecar-engineering.com/news/industry/exclusive-secret-aerodynamic-test-facility-revealed/

    And it's already been done in the USA:
    http://www.racecar-engineering.com/articles/nascar/the-secrets-of-laurel-hill/

    Catesby Tunnel is quite near several of the F1 teams - SIlverstone is only thirteen miles away.

    On another F1 topic: it's a shame to see Marussia folding. Hopefully the rumours that they will be bought out of receivership are true.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited October 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    They would have had all the calculations

    Except that's not true.

    The calculations are based on the numbers from all of the other member nations, which the UK Treasury does not keep (amazingly enough)

    EDIT. Of course if Cameron was up to the job he could have guessed all of the missing numbers...

    Apart from that, spot on again.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    They would have had all the calculations, or perhaps no one in the treasury knows about finances?
    No wonder we are fruked if our government signs on too things with no idea of the cost?

    Team Casio in your Government Smarmy. Apparently they know spreadsheets...

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Windfall nations [France] are going to want the UK to pay.

    They are trying to dodge their own fines for budget indiscipline.

    Ultimately, the big nations gang up and tell the Commission where to go.

    There may be 28 in the EU, but only 4 really matter; Germany, France, Italy and Britain.



  • Options
    This EU budget saga could well be Dave's Falklands moment. Clearly the Kippers are in a blind panic - flapping over arcane irrelevances about who said what to whom and why was it not foreseen? I've never seen them so rattled. Perhaps Cameron had Farage's measure all along and was just biding his time.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    The numbers were a state secret, only known to readers of financial articles?
    I can see definite signs that the treasury has no idea about world economies....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    Being able to anticipate future problems using the evidence available isn't clairvoyance, it is competence

    Ok, if he doesn't give us the lottery numbers he should quit.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    The numbers were a state secret, only known to readers of financial articles?
    I can see definite signs that the treasury has no idea about world economies....

    Lol lol lol lol

    Arf arf arf arf

    But, Yes

    You'll be getting a 2200 Brisky update at this rate Smarmy...

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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    Being able to anticipate future problems using the evidence available isn't clairvoyance, it is competence

    Ok, if he doesn't give us the lottery numbers he should quit.
    Keep going with the strawman if you wish.. it's just making you look silly

    You showed with your bottling of the Farage bet you wont admit when you are plain wrong so its to be expected I suppose


  • Options
    Villa stinking at QPR.

    Over 8 hours since they scored in the PL.

    5 defeats on the bounce.

    There's only one response to this level of feebleness.

    Put your house on them beating Spurs at the weekend - it's an absolute dead cert. Best price is only 13/5 but likely to improve before then...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    Keep going with the strawman if you wish.. it's just making you look silly

    Cameron should have guessed 2 billion Euros 6 months in advance...

    The lottery numbers are a doddle in comparison.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @SeanT is right. If Cameron ends up paying the shakedown, or the majority of the shakedown, or fines for not paying the shakedown then UKIP will surge.
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    Villa stinking at QPR.

    its the curse of their most (in)famous supporter once again. it's the curse of Cameron!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Villa stinking at QPR.

    Over 8 hours since they scored in the PL.

    5 defeats on the bounce.

    There's only one response to this level of feebleness.

    Put your house on them beating Spurs at the weekend - it's an absolute dead cert. Best price is only 13/5 but likely to improve before then...

    It pleases me that another team is pants too. Leicester City have been useless since they beat Man U. Cannot score for toffee and witless elsewhere. Our only hope is that there are 3 teams more crap than we are, or at least we get some form back before we go to Southampton...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    "Dear Cap'n Cash

    I have joined one of those online get rich quick syndicates, but nothing seems straightforward.. it costs a bomb every month and lots of people tell me I should leave as its a big ponzi style con, but I haven't got the guts... now they've presented me with a huge bill that I don't want to pay but apparently I am obliged to as its in the t's and c's that I signed on joining

    Can you help?"

    David, Chipping Norton
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Cameron will also need to now come up with some strong proposals on EU immigration. The biggest danger for him right now is that he looks weak after Merkel tells him what to do.
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    SeanT said:

    Utterly extraordinary video made by "ISIS correspondent" John Cantlie, from the middle of Kobane.

    http://www.newsweek.com/new-isis-video-shows-british-captive-cantlie-announce-capture-kobane-280156

    We have to face the fact ISIS have a propaganda division that rivals Goebbels in its skill set. Aerial drone footage? How menacing is that?

    We have no choice but to fight them to the death. Which, of course, is what they want. But there it is.

    It doesn't matter if they have a Nazi Germany equivalent propaganda minister as long as they don't have a Nazi Germany equivalent military.

    And they don't.

    As I remember you were claiming that ISIS were about to capture Baghdad a few weeks ago.

    What happened to that ?
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam
    Perhaps all those PPI calls should be directed to Dave and Ozzie?
    No win no fee basis?
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @isam
    Perhaps all those PPI calls should be directed to Dave and Ozzie?
    No win no fee basis?

    Nothing on Bbc.com?

  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Same thing as a tax return, you tell the IR that you are only earning so much, then later you tell them you were earning more.
    Now, the time all this should have been discussed is well before, but it seems somewhere between the treasury, and the PM, "the eye was off the ball".
    His government were in meetings signing it off a fortnight ago.

    So you think Ed Miliband will pay it then?
    Whoever's elected will pay it. Even Farage would pay it. Cameron will just be hoping to delay the payment until after the election.
    I doubt it. This is becoming totemic. Cameron can't afford, politically, to pay the whole whack. The EU will know this.

    Expect a ridiculous eurosmudge. Some hugely complex formula whereby the UK "hookers n blow" Surcharge is reduced by £x00m, over a decade, blah blah, so the EU can claim the rules are being enforced and the UK can claim it has won a massive victory, and so forth.

    If the EU really does enforce full payment by December 1 and/or then successfully fines the UK for late payment, I will be entirely flabbergasted and electorally aroused, as it will ensure an enormous UKIP surge and increase the chances of Brexit (utterly dreaded by the EU) by about 50% overnight.
    As I understand it the demand for €2bn from Britain arises from one single amendment to the budget - but there are seven amendments in total to be considered.

    My suspicion is that this has been a set-up from the start. The total amount that Britain will have to pay from all seven amendments in total will be considerably less than €2bn, because some of the other six amendments will involve Britain receiving money. Cameron will be able to present this as a great victory, because no-one is interested in arcane EU procedures.

    Alistair Campbell would be proud. You have a situation where the UK will have to pay the EU perhaps a few hundred million Euros extra, but Osborne & co. have so successfully managed the media reveal that this will be presented as a huge Cameron victory over unreasonable EU demands for €2bn.
  • Options

    This EU budget saga could well be Dave's Falklands moment. Clearly the Kippers are in a blind panic - flapping over arcane irrelevances about who said what to whom and why was it not foreseen? I've never seen them so rattled. Perhaps Cameron had Farage's measure all along and was just biding his time.

    Falklands moment? Only if his name is Galtieri. Its not UKIP whose parliamentary party are threatening to knife their leader dependent on what he eventually does about the Tart Tax.

    Tory MPs threaten trouble for PM over EU bill

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/tory-mps-threaten-trouble-for-pm-over-eu-bill/
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,159
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Same thing as a tax return, you tell the IR that you are only earning so much, then later you tell them you were earning more.
    Now, the time all this should have been discussed is well before, but it seems somewhere between the treasury, and the PM, "the eye was off the ball".
    His government were in meetings signing it off a fortnight ago.

    So you think Ed Miliband will pay it then?
    Whoever's elected will pay it. Even Farage would pay it. Cameron will just be hoping to delay the payment until after the election.
    I doubt it. This is becoming totemic. Cameron can't afford, politically, to pay the whole whack. The EU will know this.

    Expect a ridiculous eurosmudge. Some hugely complex formula whereby the UK "hookers n blow" Surcharge is reduced by £x00m, over a decade, blah blah, so the EU can claim the rules are being enforced and the UK can claim it has won a massive victory, and so forth.

    If the EU really does enforce full payment by December 1 and/or then successfully fines the UK for late payment, I will be entirely flabbergasted and electorally aroused, as it will ensure an enormous UKIP surge and increase the chances of Brexit (utterly dreaded by the EU) by about 50% overnight.
    Cameron would have a lot more space after a successful reelection, and if UKIP surge then, who cares? But I agree they'd probably come up with something complicated and impenetrable to help him (or whoever else wins, as Labour may end up marching up this particular hill as well) save face.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    Keep going with the strawman if you wish.. it's just making you look silly

    Cameron should have guessed 2 billion Euros 6 months in advance...

    The lottery numbers are a doddle in comparison.
    You seem to think that £2bn is a big amount to this government.

    Osborne's going to miss his borrowing prediction by over £60bn this year.
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    You want the PM to be the kind of punter that sees things before others do and gets the value early

    You wanted him to guess a number 6 months in advance.

    Isn't this a betting site?

    I thought people here did that every day.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Ninoinoz said:

    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    You want the PM to be the kind of punter that sees things before others do and gets the value early

    You wanted him to guess a number 6 months in advance.

    Isn't this a betting site?

    I thought people here did that every day.
    You're thinking of the #5537.5c

  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Socrates said:

    Cameron will also need to now come up with some strong proposals on EU immigration. The biggest danger for him right now is that he looks weak after Merkel tells him what to do.

    Frau Merkel is increasingly alone.

    The French are in an extended economic mess, the Italians recession is never ending and the British have had enough.

    She needs an ally who actually has an economy that is vaguely breathing.


  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    This EU budget saga could well be Dave's Falklands moment.

    If Mr Cameron, like Mrs Thatcher, was a resolute, courageous, patriotic leader it might be. He's not though.
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    Socrates said:

    Cameron will also need to now come up with some strong proposals on EU immigration. The biggest danger for him right now is that he looks weak after Merkel tells him what to do.

    It's getting to the point where Cameron and perhaps a large part of the Tory party will be secretly relieved if they lose the election to Miliband. Can you imagine the carnage if all these EU related issues blow up in Cameron's face after the election? The Tory party could splinter into pieces.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    SeanT said:

    Utterly extraordinary video made by "ISIS correspondent" John Cantlie, from the middle of Kobane.

    http://www.newsweek.com/new-isis-video-shows-british-captive-cantlie-announce-capture-kobane-280156

    We have to face the fact ISIS have a propaganda division that rivals Goebbels in its skill set. Aerial drone footage? How menacing is that?

    We have no choice but to fight them to the death. Which, of course, is what they want. But there it is.

    Utterly bizarre

    I wonder if they'll be releasing a compilation of hilarious out takes and goofs for Christmas?
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    Socrates said:

    @SeanT is right. If Cameron ends up paying the shakedown, or the majority of the shakedown, or fines for not paying the shakedown then UKIP will surge.

    But nobody is going to believe him if he claims he wont pay it.

    Incidentally how are payments to and from the EU organised ?

    Are they netted off or does the treasury pay over a lump sum every month and the EU then make multiple payments to all the things it funds in this country.

    What happens if the EU stopped making those payments if Cameron blocked the extra payment ? Would Cameron then up the ante by stopping all payments to the EU ?

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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Maybe the UK should quit the EU and join NAFTA.......
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Coming up at 10pm a shocker of a poll for one of the parties and a big boost for another
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    What could it be...

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Coming up big polling news from the ComRes phone poll for the Indy. Due out at 10pm
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,159
    chestnut said:

    Socrates said:

    Cameron will also need to now come up with some strong proposals on EU immigration. The biggest danger for him right now is that he looks weak after Merkel tells him what to do.

    Frau Merkel is increasingly alone.

    The French are in an extended economic mess, the Italians recession is never ending and the British have had enough.

    She needs an ally who actually has an economy that is vaguely breathing.


    She's not alone on freedom of movement. All the other member states agree, and Cameron probably agrees in private as well.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    Coming up at 10pm a shocker of a poll for one of the parties and a big boost for another

    Yay!

    Fuck you Lord A!!!

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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    Ninoinoz said:

    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    You want the PM to be the kind of punter that sees things before others do and gets the value early

    You wanted him to guess a number 6 months in advance.

    Isn't this a betting site?

    I thought people here did that every day.
    Some people think being shrewd is seeing a poll before the bookies and picking them off by betting out of date prices...

    If Dave was a bettor I think he'd be just that guy
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    UKIP 2nd?
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MikeSmithson
    Pure speculation, but another "flounce bounce"?
    (I know you can't answer)
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    Tory lead in Rochester?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    edited October 2014
    2s Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Coming up at 10pm. A shocker of a poll for one party & a big boost for another

    OK, I know how to read OGH after all these years, especially the little nuance of excitement..

    Tories and UKIP to be v v close to each other...

    Let's see if I'm a spurs striker or not.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    UKIP had a stonking poll from ComRes last time, hence my pondering...
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Given that we've had a slew of polls all telling a very similar story, anything that deviates far from that should cause raised eyebrows.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    I don't get the kipper frothing because Cameron won't get any negotiated change in the immigration / free movement issue. They should be delighted by this, not frothing.

    It means his 2017 referendum will be about immigration etc, and the inability to change it. That I thought, is what they wanted. I thought they feared a successful negotiation leading to an in vote, not an unsuccessful one making out more likely.

    Very strange bunch.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Coming up at 10pm a shocker of a poll for one of the parties and a big boost for another

    Can't wait, sounds exciting.
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Utterly extraordinary video made by "ISIS correspondent" John Cantlie, from the middle of Kobane.

    http://www.newsweek.com/new-isis-video-shows-british-captive-cantlie-announce-capture-kobane-280156

    We have to face the fact ISIS have a propaganda division that rivals Goebbels in its skill set. Aerial drone footage? How menacing is that?

    We have no choice but to fight them to the death. Which, of course, is what they want. But there it is.

    It doesn't matter if they have a Nazi Germany equivalent propaganda minister as long as they don't have a Nazi Germany equivalent military.

    And they don't.

    As I remember you were claiming that ISIS were about to capture Baghdad a few weeks ago.

    What happened to that ?
    What happened to that?? ISIS are still advancing on several fronts in the Mid East, including parts of Iraq.



    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/isis-captures-baghdad-terror-takes-103000649.html

    I hope my fear-mongering is misplaced, and this loathsome bunch of rape-culty death-Nazis falls apart through the winter. Recent history suggests they are much more resilient and much more intelligent than we would wish. Far cleverer than al-Qaeda, for example. So this is unlikely.

    We may have to fight them on the ground, or at least give significant military aid to those who will - i.e. the KURDS.
    So you accept your 'ISIS are now only 10 miles from Baghdad' excitement turned out a little incorrect.

    ISIS aren't a nice bunch but then the Middle East abounds with not very nice people, many of which are our official friends.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    IS THIS the fabled "Scottish" poll ?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    philiph said:

    I don't get the kipper frothing because Cameron won't get any negotiated change in the immigration / free movement issue. They should be delighted by this, not frothing.

    It means his 2017 referendum will be about immigration etc, and the inability to change it. That I thought, is what they wanted. I thought they feared a successful negotiation leading to an in vote, not an unsuccessful one making out more likely.

    Very strange bunch.

    All I did was point out Miliband turned him over in the HofC today.... dogs abuse followed
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Pulpstar said:

    IS THIS the fabled "Scottish" poll ?

    Care to elaborate?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Tories + Labour tying again, 5th poll in a row. CON 32%, LAB 32%, UKIP 18%, LD 8%. 4 year Lab lead gone for good?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IS THIS the fabled "Scottish" poll ?

    Care to elaborate?
    I've been hearing there should be a Scottish poll for ages, which judging by the Scottish subsamples should be about 6 (LD) - 19 (Con) - 29 Labour - 40 SNP or so.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    edited October 2014
    Well stab me, now I'm Bobby Soldado.....

    Wrong again!! Well half wrong, pls forgive me OGH
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    isam said:

    philiph said:

    I don't get the kipper frothing because Cameron won't get any negotiated change in the immigration / free movement issue. They should be delighted by this, not frothing.

    It means his 2017 referendum will be about immigration etc, and the inability to change it. That I thought, is what they wanted. I thought they feared a successful negotiation leading to an in vote, not an unsuccessful one making out more likely.

    Very strange bunch.

    All I did was point out Miliband turned him over in the HofC today.... dogs abuse followed
    Isam - remember, Ed is crap. Silly memo by silly Ed (is crap) changes nothing.

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    LAB down 5 UKIP up 4 in new ComRes phone poll for Indy
    CON 30+1, LAB 30-5, LD 9-1, UKIP 19+4, GRN 4=


    Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Tories + Labour tying again, 5th poll in a row. CON 32%, LAB 32%, UKIP 18%, LD 8%. 4 year Lab lead gone for good?


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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    All I did was point out Miliband turned him over in the HofC today.... dogs abuse followed

    All I did was point out you were wrong.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    She's not alone on freedom of movement. All the other member states agree, and Cameron probably agrees in private as well.

    It isn't just about that though. It's about who foots the bill and how the bill is distributed.

    If Britain backs out, who picks up our net contribution? Germany makes a big profit from trading with the UK. Does it want to jeopardise that whilst supporting the floundering economies of France and Italy?

    Merkel needs a (big) friend.





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    Ties all over the shop at the moment...

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    isamisam Posts: 41,098
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    All I did was point out Miliband turned him over in the HofC today.... dogs abuse followed

    All I did was point out you were wrong.
    You were mistaken, Miliband bested Cammo today.. Dave,flush with anger,tried to change the subject


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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    So, Labour really might poll less than in 2010. How soon before we get a sub-30% score?
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Dave's master plan to slow down immigration is at last revealed!

    "Anger as minister says saving people encourages others to risk Mediterranean voyage"
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/27/uk-mediterranean-migrant-rescue-plan
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,118
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Same thing as a tax return, you tell the IR that you are only earning so much, then later you tell them you were earning more.
    Now, the time all this should have been discussed is well before, but it seems somewhere between the treasury, and the PM, "the eye was off the ball".
    His government were in meetings signing it off a fortnight ago.

    So you think Ed Miliband will pay it then?
    Whoever's elected will pay it. Even Farage would pay it. Cameron will just be hoping to delay the payment until after the election.
    Expect a ridiculous eurosmudge. Some hugely complex formula whereby the UK "hookers n blow" Surcharge is reduced by £x00m, over a decade, blah blah, so the EU can claim the rules are being enforced and the UK can claim it has won a massive victory, and so forth.
    Sounds plausible. It is surely the only conceivable way we will not pay the full amount (that 2bn is trivial in the larger scheme is pretty irrelevant, as people don't mind wasting tens of billions on things they like, vs spending even 1bn on things they do not like), so I expect a review will be announced soon to evaluate this EU demand which will readjust all the figures by small amounts?
    Sean_F said:

    So, Labour really might poll less than in 2010. How soon before we get a sub-30% score?

    I don't know, but if they keep tying with the Tories I might eventually have to amend my long standing prediction of a Labour majority in 2015, and after 4.5 years of banging that drum, that won't be easy. As it is, if UKIP keep up their momentum I'm down £100 already, so that would be hurt enough without calling the whole thing incorrectly.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,941

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Same thing as a tax return, you tell the IR that you are only earning so much, then later you tell them you were earning more.
    Now, the time all this should have been discussed is well before, but it seems somewhere between the treasury, and the PM, "the eye was off the ball".
    His government were in meetings signing it off a fortnight ago.

    So you think Ed Miliband will pay it then?
    Whoever's elected will pay it. Even Farage would pay it. Cameron will just be hoping to delay the payment until after the election.
    I doubt it. This is becoming totemic. Cameron can't afford, politically, to pay the whole whack. The EU will know this.

    Expect a ridiculous eurosmudge. Some hugely complex formula whereby the UK "hookers n blow" Surcharge is reduced by £x00m, over a decade, blah blah, so the EU can claim the rules are being enforced and the UK can claim it has won a massive victory, and so forth.

    If the EU really does enforce full payment by December 1 and/or then successfully fines the UK for late payment, I will be entirely flabbergasted and electorally aroused, as it will ensure an enormous UKIP surge and increase the chances of Brexit (utterly dreaded by the EU) by about 50% overnight.
    As I understand it the demand for €2bn from Britain arises from one single amendment to the budget - but there are seven amendments in total to be considered.

    My suspicion is that this has been a set-up from the start. The total amount that Britain will have to pay from all seven amendments in total will be considerably less than €2bn, because some of the other six amendments will involve Britain receiving money. Cameron will be able to present this as a great victory, because no-one is interested in arcane EU procedures.

    Alistair Campbell would be proud. You have a situation where the UK will have to pay the EU perhaps a few hundred million Euros extra, but Osborne & co. have so successfully managed the media reveal that this will be presented as a huge Cameron victory over unreasonable EU demands for €2bn.
    The EU Budget Commissioner said much the same this evening. He inferred that if Britain had waited we might have seen a very different pattern of payments and receipts.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,118
    Smarmeron said:

    Dave's master plan to slow down immigration is at last revealed!

    "Anger as minister says saving people encourages others to risk Mediterranean voyage"
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/27/uk-mediterranean-migrant-rescue-plan

    Sounds pretty despicable.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    As such we no longer really even have control over our economy as dumbfounded Dave has just demonstrated.

    You Kippers seem to have lost all touch with reality. How in the name of heaven is a disputed membership fee even remotely 'not having control over our economy'?

    It's a haggle over a bill, that's all. And Dave ain't gonna pay it, but if UKIP succeed in their goal of putting Ed M into No 10, I expect he will.
    Trouble is, very few believe that Cameron will not roll over and pay up.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Is PB having a bad day?
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    Where does the arrival of Sarah Boyack leave the contest?
This discussion has been closed.