Is it not possible the Labour lead increases again after a bad month?
It seems entirely possible to me.
One side effect of the current political focus being the Conservatives vs UKIP over the EU, immigration and Rochester & Strood is that Labour are bystanders to the political debate at present. That can't be good for their poll ratings.
Dr. Prasannan, they voted that way this year. The question won't fade, though. Not unless fair devolution for England can occur. Without that, Scottish MPs voting on English matters becomes untenable, fostering resentment and division.
And the only way equal power can be had is with an English Parliament.
Gordon Brown not standing is good news for Neil Findlay backers.Expect the respect and deference he showed to him to be positively noted by the Brown team.
Gordon Brown not standing is good news for Neil Findlay backers.Expect the respect and deference he showed to him to be positively noted by the Brown team.
Mr. Dancer, it seems unlikely that the likelihood of Scottish independence is linked to the English devolution question. It has much more to do with Scottish politics and the extent to which that diverges from UK politics.
Afternoon all. I know Labour keeps Holyrood for its political pygmies but who the hell is Neil Findlay? Clearly the man isn't even a legend in his own living room. I have never heard of the man let alone have any idea he is an MSP. Johann frae Pollock was bad enough but at least people had heard of her. I am waiting for Ian Gray to step forward as saviour of SLAB. That way in 2016 it could win fewer seats than the Scottish LibDems.
Torcuil Crichton @Torcuil · 13m13 minutes ago Gordon Brown out say sources, but will anyone else get into the water until he issues definitive statement?
Mr. Ajob, as far as I understand, London has transport devolved and the rest of the powers are pretty watery.
Mr. CD13, np, and best of luck.
Mr Dancer
France, Germany, Spain and Italy are split into regions. Are the French, Germans, Spaniards and Italians any less French, German, Spanish or Italian?
GB is split in to 4 regions. We also have local government. Why do we need more? England has never been a federal country. It is relatively small in land area and does not lend itself to autominous federal regions. England was a whole and homogenous country when various parts 'Germany' were components of the Holy Roman Empire.
Whole and homogenous? No chance.
The English people spoke back then would have been mutually incomprehensible, as it was until relatively recently. Back in Canute's day - when he was off in other parts of his empire - Mercia, Wessex and Northumbria were essentially ruled by their respective Earls; great swathes of the kingdom were also controlled by the church.
Actually I remember seeing a learned prof type about ten years ago pointing out that in the 10th century the various dialects of Anglo Saxon would not only have been intelligible to each other but also to Danish ( well Norse really ) as spoken up North by many at the time. Anglo Saxon had only left its continental Danish neighbours about 500 years before and being pre 1066 there were no Normans and their fancy French vocabulary to get in the way. Indeed the need for a united English/Viking lingua Franca probably accelerated Anglo Saxon's already simplifying grammatical tendencies, helping English rid itself of all those tiresome genders and cases.
Back in the 21st century: dividing up England to "solve" a Scottish Welsh and N Irish question created by the logical irregularities of devolution is a nonsense in my humble view.
Indeed. There was far more linguistic consistency than in Scotland at the time. Presumably Southam thinks we should split Scotland up into Highland and Lowland regions based on their much more distinct cultural and linguistic histories? Or is England the only country that needs to be divided up?
Is there an alternative status quo candidate if Murphy decides he doesn't want to get involved? It kind of looks like there's only really Murphy and Findlay left, and it's still not entirely clear that Murphy would want the job. It is interesting what Brown would make of a Murphy candidacy as well, given that Murphy was pretty much the most Blairite of all the Scottish Labour MPs back in the days when that mattered.
Dr. Prasannan, did any of those countries have a referendum this very year about destroying that country? Have any of them embarked upon ill-considered and ever-deepening devolution?
Scotland has one Parliament, and England ought to have the same. Carving it up is the policy of the parochial and the short-sighted.
Mr Dancer
The USA is split into 50 states and a capital territory - are they any less American? And around the Commonwealth, India has 29 states and 7 territories, Canada has 13 provinces/territories, Australia has 8 states/territories, S Africa has 9 provinces. Need I go on?
The states and provinces of the USA, Canada, Australia and South Africa were there before the federations they created. They thus make up natural units. India is divided into different states to reflect each of the major ethnic groups in the country. Neither situation applies to England.
Is there an alternative status quo candidate if Murphy decides he doesn't want to get involved? It kind of looks like there's only really Murphy and Findlay left, and it's still not entirely clear that Murphy would want the job. It is interesting what Brown would make of a Murphy candidacy as well, given that Murphy was pretty much the most Blairite of all the Scottish Labour MPs back in the days when that mattered.
Welcome to PB.com Mr Ludovic.
The Times has listed today the following canditates (that I totally copyright raped!!!)
Is there an alternative status quo candidate if Murphy decides he doesn't want to get involved? It kind of looks like there's only really Murphy and Findlay left, and it's still not entirely clear that Murphy would want the job. It is interesting what Brown would make of a Murphy candidacy as well, given that Murphy was pretty much the most Blairite of all the Scottish Labour MPs back in the days when that mattered.
Welcome to PB.com Mr Ludovic.
The Times has listed today the following canditates (that I totally copyright raped!!!)
Jim Murphy
Douglas Alexander
Anas Sarwar
Kezia Dugdale
Neil Findlay
Jenny Marra
Douglas Alexander - Not a chance in my opinion given he is in the Shadow cabinet.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn Cameron escalates EU budget row: tells MPs he will never pay £1.7bn or "a sum anything like that". First flat refusal to meet full bill.
John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul Kate Hoey deadly Q aimed at EdM: "The British public are not concerned with who knew what when." They want to know that we won't pay.
Douglas Carswell MP ✔ @DouglasCarswell David Cameron WILL pay the EU bill. Even if he disputes amount. And pays it late. #rollOver
I'm not sure Carswell is right here. I have been shocked by how much traction the EU shakedown has. After years and years of EU abuses and interference, I had somehow got used to the general public not taking the EU as seriously as they should, despite the obvious malignant effects it has. But there's something very clear and understandable about Brussels just suddenly demanding billions out of nowhere that has got the previously euroapathetics to sit up and take notice. It would be politically disastrous for Cameron to hand over the money.
It also is made all the more salient by the immigration debate. How have we got to the ridiculous situation where the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland needs to get the permission of the German Chancellor over how it controls its borders?
Is there an alternative status quo candidate if Murphy decides he doesn't want to get involved? It kind of looks like there's only really Murphy and Findlay left, and it's still not entirely clear that Murphy would want the job. It is interesting what Brown would make of a Murphy candidacy as well, given that Murphy was pretty much the most Blairite of all the Scottish Labour MPs back in the days when that mattered.
Welcome to PB.com Mr Ludovic.
The Times has listed today the following canditates (that I totally copyright raped!!!)
Jim Murphy
Douglas Alexander
Anas Sarwar
Kezia Dugdale
Neil Findlay
Jenny Marra
Douglas Alexander - Not a chance in my opinion given he is in the Shadow cabinet.
Briskin and co ain't ruling it out. Based on his fashion...
Breitbart are reporting that UK medical students are going to be screened for their "values" before being accepted onto a course.
"According to the NHS Constitution, those values include a belief that the NHS “has a wider social duty to promote equality through the services it provides” and remains “free of charge”, financed “through national taxation”."
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
This might be a throw-away line but it reveals a serious truth - for years Westminster Scots have looked down their nose at the Scottish Parliament and that came across during the referendum campaign.
Is there an alternative status quo candidate if Murphy decides he doesn't want to get involved? It kind of looks like there's only really Murphy and Findlay left, and it's still not entirely clear that Murphy would want the job. It is interesting what Brown would make of a Murphy candidacy as well, given that Murphy was pretty much the most Blairite of all the Scottish Labour MPs back in the days when that mattered.
Welcome to PB.com Mr Ludovic.
The Times has listed today the following canditates (that I totally copyright raped!!!)
Jim Murphy
Douglas Alexander
Anas Sarwar
Kezia Dugdale
Neil Findlay
Jenny Marra
But Sarwar, Dugdale and Marra have all said no. And Alexander seems unlikely as he still has UK ambitions, so it does kind of seem like Findlay and Murphy are the only options.
Is there an alternative status quo candidate if Murphy decides he doesn't want to get involved? It kind of looks like there's only really Murphy and Findlay left, and it's still not entirely clear that Murphy would want the job. It is interesting what Brown would make of a Murphy candidacy as well, given that Murphy was pretty much the most Blairite of all the Scottish Labour MPs back in the days when that mattered.
Is there an alternative status quo candidate if Murphy decides he doesn't want to get involved? It kind of looks like there's only really Murphy and Findlay left, and it's still not entirely clear that Murphy would want the job. It is interesting what Brown would make of a Murphy candidacy as well, given that Murphy was pretty much the most Blairite of all the Scottish Labour MPs back in the days when that mattered.
Welcome to PB.com Mr Ludovic.
The Times has listed today the following canditates (that I totally copyright raped!!!)
Jim Murphy
Douglas Alexander
Anas Sarwar
Kezia Dugdale
Neil Findlay
Jenny Marra
But Sarwar, Dugdale and Marra have all said no. And Alexander seems unlikely as he still has UK ambitions, so it does kind of seem like Findlay and Murphy are the only options.
Torcuil Crichton @Torcuil · 13m13 minutes ago Gordon Brown out say sources, but will anyone else get into the water until he issues definitive statement?
The only decision most Scots are waiting Gordon Brown to make is confirmation he is not standing at the GE next year so the people of Kirkcaldy can have an MP who actually carries out the duties s/he is paid to do.
If English devolution is botched and unfair then resentment over Scottish MPs voting here on non-Scottish matters will fester.
Of course, Scottish separation could occur entirely separately, but the best thing for both England and the union is equality for the English through an English Parliament.
Sunil: Good evening everyone. I have none other than Lord Sunil, proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant of the Sunil on Sunday here, to talk about his "ELBOW" polls. And a warm welcome to you, Lord Sunil!
Lord Sunil: Thank you, Sunil!
Sunil: So Lord Sunil, what exactly is ELBOW? How is it calculated?
Lord Sunil: Well, Sunil, I'm glad you asked that question, and I'm more than happy to explain. ELBOW stands for "Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week" -
Sunil: - I take it that was a counterpunch to Jack W's ARSE?
Lord Sunil: Um, you could say that, yes!
Sunil: Please, Lord Sunil, do go on!
Lord Sunil: OK, as an alternative to the bog standard weekly averages on UKPR and such places, we at the Sunil on Sunday decided to look at the actual samples used for each poll within a given week, and the numbers obtained for each party, totting up the total number of respondents expressing a voting intention for each of the four main parties, and then calculating a percentage from these totals out of the total of weighted samples from that week's polls.
Sunil: Sounds simple enough. So what constitutes a week in ELBOW terms?
Lord Sunil: For our purposes, it's Sunday to Saturday, given our historic Sunday publishing date. So any poll with fieldwork ending on a Sunday and then all polls with fieldwork end-dates up to and including the following Saturday are included in that week's ELBOW.
Sunil: So any obvious trends?
Lord Sunil: Well it would appear that Labour were full steam ahead from mid-August till late-September with a lead of 3% rising to around 4.5%. But since the end of the Conference season, they have taken a tumble. This week's ELBOW has them leading by just 1.1%, and this is the 4th straight week that the Labour lead has fallen.
Sunil: Interesting stuff! Have you or any of the Sunil on Sunday editorial team made any bets using your data?
Lord Sunil: I'm afraid I can't divulge that information!
Sunil: But there are rumours that your resident clairvoyant, Mystic Smeg, predicts that both of the main parties will get 250 seats or more. And your film critic, Mark Commode, predicts a small Tory majority.
Lord Sunil: That's the first I've heard of that. I'll have to have to give them a pep talk at tomorrow's editorial board meeting!
Sunil: So you'll be publishing an ELBOW every week up to the General Election?
Lord Sunil: Yes, of course! Remember this will be an alternative measure to the standard arithmetic polling averages published on other sites.
Sunil: And after the election?
Lord Sunil: Well, we'll see. We may well take a break as in all likelihood there won't be a Parliamentary contest for a couple of years. Then again, if the Election produces an unstable Parliament, another Election could well ensue soon after.
Breitbart are reporting that UK medical students are going to be screened for their "values" before being accepted onto a course.
"According to the NHS Constitution, those values include a belief that the NHS “has a wider social duty to promote equality through the services it provides” and remains “free of charge”, financed “through national taxation”."
That's outrageous and surely challengeable in court. I guess Europhiles have been doing this with the European Commission for years - it was only a matter of time before they started applying the same tactics to other areas.
If English devolution is botched and unfair then resentment over Scottish MPs voting here on non-Scottish matters will fester.
Of course, Scottish separation could occur entirely separately, but the best thing for both England and the union is equality for the English through an English Parliament.
I've often thought like this Morris. But like my RCT in regards to voting matters I feel we may as well be backbenchers...
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
Keep pretending these payments are a tax - it only shows your ignorance. Payment to regional structiral funds are paid by countries not even in the EU. It is in our econoimic interest to see the poorer countries in Eupope grow and be markets for our goods and services. The arguement is how the payments are calculated. The black economy for a start is purely hypothetical.
If Jim Murphy goes for the Scottish Labour leadership, are we entitled to infer that he thinks that either a) Ed Miliband is going to lose or b) Ed Miliband is not going to include him in his Cabinet if he wins?
Mr. Socrates, an absolute disgrace, if true. Reminds me slightly of Joyce Thacker dragging several children away from good foster parents who had committed the 'sin' of being UKIP supporters.
If Jim Murphy goes for the Scottish Labour leadership, are we entitled to infer that he thinks that either a) Ed Miliband is going to lose or b) Ed Miliband is not going to include him in his Cabinet if he wins?
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
It is no more a disgrace or daylight robbery than HMRC sending me a tax demand for £ 50 following their review showing my earnings were a bit more than calculated a year ago . Unlike Cameron I simply paid up rather than blow up in a hissy fit .
Mr. Antifrank, a system that requires a one-off chap in supreme authority is not a stable system.
The monarchy will endure.
I don't think it is fully appreciated just how special the Queen is. She is a quite remarkable woman who has more or less personally invented the idea of the modern monarchy, shaped it in her own image and has tirelessly applied herself to carrying it out.
Dr. Prasannan, did any of those countries have a referendum this very year about destroying that country? Have any of them embarked upon ill-considered and ever-deepening devolution?
Scotland has one Parliament, and England ought to have the same. Carving it up is the policy of the parochial and the short-sighted.
Mr Dancer
The USA is split into 50 states and a capital territory - are they any less American? And around the Commonwealth, India has 29 states and 7 territories, Canada has 13 provinces/territories, Australia has 8 states/territories, S Africa has 9 provinces. Need I go on?
The states and provinces of the USA, Canada, Australia and South Africa were there before the federations they created. They thus make up natural units. India is divided into different states to reflect each of the major ethnic groups in the country. Neither situation applies to England.
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
Keep pretending these payments are a tax - it only shows your ignorance. Payment to regional structiral funds are paid by countries not even in the EU. It is in our econoimic interest to see the poorer countries in Eupope grow and be markets for our goods and services. The arguement is how the payments are calculated. The black economy for a start is purely hypothetical.
Call it what you like, tax, club fees, a protection racket, the bottom line is that we are paying very large amounts of money to an organisation that does nothing for us and causes us a huge amount of grief. I know you Eurofanatics think it is something we cannot live without but out here in the real world the rest of us know it is a complete waste of time and money.
Dr. Prasannan, did any of those countries have a referendum this very year about destroying that country? Have any of them embarked upon ill-considered and ever-deepening devolution?
Scotland has one Parliament, and England ought to have the same. Carving it up is the policy of the parochial and the short-sighted.
Mr Dancer
The USA is split into 50 states and a capital territory - are they any less American? And around the Commonwealth, India has 29 states and 7 territories, Canada has 13 provinces/territories, Australia has 8 states/territories, S Africa has 9 provinces. Need I go on?
The states and provinces of the USA, Canada, Australia and South Africa were there before the federations they created. They thus make up natural units. India is divided into different states to reflect each of the major ethnic groups in the country. Neither situation applies to England.
And the Heptarchy predates England.
Yet the various Heptarchy kingdoms have not existed for more than a thousand years and would make absolutely no sense for modern England. Carving up London along the Thames would be sheer madness.
We have an existing natural unit: England. There is absolutely no reason to divide it up. The English are a people. They deserve their own parliament.
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
It is no more a disgrace or daylight robbery than HMRC sending me a tax demand for £ 50 following their review showing my earnings were a bit more than calculated a year ago . Unlike Cameron I simply paid up rather than blow up in a hissy fit .
Here's why I think there's a chance Jim Murphy may not for Scottish Labour leader. 1) He doesn't think Ed will win in May and that in less than a year's time there'll be a new Labour leader by which time the party 'will have come to its senses' and have elected someone of his political persuasion under whom he could prosper. 2) He thinks the party in Scotland will be deeply divided and struggle against Nicola Sturgeon in her honeymoon period - which may last until 2016. 3) He doesn't think the spoils are worth all the hassle.
@Socrates - Where did I say that England should be broken up into anything? I was merely disagreeing with the idea that we were a homogenous, centrally controlled state in the period before the 11th century. Having written a 20,000 word dissertation on politics and society in the reign of Canute it is something I know a little bit about.
In fact, modern English developed as it did precisely because the various dialects were not mutually intelligible - at its root it was pidgin language that enabled people with different first languages to communicate. Likewise, systems of landholding were very different in different parts of the country, as were inheritance laws and so on. It's hardly a controversial point Socrates - most people did not leave the area they were born into and never came into contact with people from elsewhere.
Torcuil Crichton @Torcuil · 13m13 minutes ago Gordon Brown out say sources, but will anyone else get into the water until he issues definitive statement?
The only decision most Scots are waiting Gordon Brown to make is confirmation he is not standing at the GE next year so the people of Kirkcaldy can have an MP who actually carries out the duties s/he is paid to do.
Why would he? He gets paid regardless of whether he turns up, presumably can subcontract the pastoral duties to a case worker on £18K per year, and can use it as a national platform whenever he feels the need.
@Socrates - Where did I say that England should be broken up into anything? I was merely disagreeing with the idea that we were a homogenous, centrally controlled state in the period before the 11th century.
Ashcroft National Poll, 24-26 October: CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Fourth tie in as many days - very intriguing!
Disastrous polling for Labour...
And yet the last poll with a Tory lead was nigh on three weeks ago...
Luck of the draw. There have been 9 polls this month with the Tories level or ahead.
The Lab lead was 4% at the start of the month. It's now 1%. [my estimates]
I may have to bring my forecast of "real" crossover forward from January!
Can anyone explain the movement on Betfair over the last couple of weeks?
The Con price (for both most seats and majority) has drifted significantly - yet Con is in a much better position than it was a couple of weeks ago.
One can obviously argue about what chance they have but it is surely unarguable that they have a better chance than they had two weeks ago.
Clacton? and simplistic analysis...
Surely the most simple analysis of all is to look at the national polls?
What could be more simple than that?
The only stat that matters is the Lab/Con margin - unless anyone thinks UKIP will do spectacularly - say get 25% to 30% - though even that wouldn't impact most seats.
If Findlay and Murphy are really the best of the bunch, it shows what a state ScotsLab are in. One is a man with no profile but a lot of union backing (and UKLab have shown how effective that sort of choice can be) and the other a man who believes his UK career is coming to an end and needs to find a way of staying in his chosen field.
"Regions lack separate legislative authority and therefore cannot write their own statutory law."
But they are still administrative regions.
"They levy their own taxes and, in return, receive a decreasing part of their budget from the central government, which gives them a portion of the taxes it levies. They also have considerable budgets managed by a regional council (conseil régional) made up of representatives voted into office in regional elections."
Sunil: Good evening everyone. I have none other than Lord Sunil, proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant of the Sunil on Sunday here, to talk about his "ELBOW" polls. And a warm welcome to you, Lord Sunil!
I'd imagine that Murphy vs Findlay would come down to the membership, as I guess Murphy would win the MPs/MSPs and Findlay would win the trade union section, assuming that Miliband isn't both able and interested enough to expend political capital to get the unions to back Murphy.
Dr. Prasannan, did any of those countries have a referendum this very year about destroying that country? Have any of them embarked upon ill-considered and ever-deepening devolution?
Scotland has one Parliament, and England ought to have the same. Carving it up is the policy of the parochial and the short-sighted.
Mr Dancer
The USA is split into 50 states and a capital territory - are they any less American? And around the Commonwealth, India has 29 states and 7 territories, Canada has 13 provinces/territories, Australia has 8 states/territories, S Africa has 9 provinces. Need I go on?
The states and provinces of the USA, Canada, Australia and South Africa were there before the federations they created. They thus make up natural units. India is divided into different states to reflect each of the major ethnic groups in the country. Neither situation applies to England.
And the Heptarchy predates England.
Yet the various Heptarchy kingdoms have not existed for more than a thousand years and would make absolutely no sense for modern England. Carving up London along the Thames would be sheer madness.
We have an existing natural unit: England. There is absolutely no reason to divide it up. The English are a people. They deserve their own parliament.
England can have its own parliament. But seven regional subunits (average 7.5 million people) below it would be fine by me. Any more would be overkill.
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
Keep pretending these payments are a tax - it only shows your ignorance. Payment to regional structiral funds are paid by countries not even in the EU. It is in our econoimic interest to see the poorer countries in Eupope grow and be markets for our goods and services. The arguement is how the payments are calculated. The black economy for a start is purely hypothetical.
For all intents and purposes it's a turnover tax. You can chunter and froth that it isn't to your little hearts content and tell us how wonderful our relationship with the EU is all you like but it doesn't change the fact that it is effectively a turnover tax. As such we no longer really even have control over our economy as dumbfounded Dave has just demonstrated. That you keep defending such an absurd relationship says more about you and your loss of perspective than anything else.
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
It is no more a disgrace or daylight robbery than HMRC sending me a tax demand for £ 50 following their review showing my earnings were a bit more than calculated a year ago . Unlike Cameron I simply paid up rather than blow up in a hissy fit .
No: the relationship between HMRC (as agent of HMG) and you (as citizen) is entirely different to the relationship between the UK government (a sovereign state) and the EU (a club).
To be honest ItsLudovic I think Ed Miliband has a big enough job on getting the unions to say on board with himself right now without expending limited capital on getting them to support Jim in Scotland. Ed urged Unison and Unite to get off the fence and back a no vote in the run up to the referendum. They said no and remained neutral - as their executives demanded. I think if he couldn't get them to campaign to keep the Union together he's not going to have much sway here.
Sunil: Good evening everyone. I have none other than Lord Sunil, proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant of the Sunil on Sunday here, to talk about his "ELBOW" polls. And a warm welcome to you, Lord Sunil!
Lord Sunil: Thank you, Sunil!
[snip]
Sunil: Thank you, Lord Sunil!
You really have too much time on your hands
Not really, just a little play on Excel on a Saturday night or Sunday morning*, and ELBOW's your uncle!
(*or Monday morning depending how late Opinium are with their tables!!)
To be honest ItsLudovic I think Ed Miliband has a big enough job on getting the unions to say on board with himself right now without expending limited capital on getting them to support Jim in Scotland. Ed urged Unison and Unite to get off the fence and back a no vote in the run up to the referendum. They said no and remained neutral - as their executives demanded. I think if he couldn't get them to campaign to keep the Union together he's not going to have much sway here.
Henry - in your post below for reasons Jim might not go for the SLab post, can we also subsitute 'I' for 'he' in the relevant parts?
If Findlay and Murphy are really the best of the bunch, it shows what a state ScotsLab are in. One is a man with no profile but a lot of union backing (and UKLab have shown how effective that sort of choice can be) and the other a man who believes his UK career is coming to an end and needs to find a way of staying in his chosen field.
News for Ealing Central and Acton watchers. Today I received my first communication in four years from sitting MP, Angie Bray. And I had been thinking she'd given up any hope of defending the seat ... For the record, I still think she has no chance. The Labour candidate is Konnie Huq's not quite so attractive sister, btw.
As such we no longer really even have control over our economy as dumbfounded Dave has just demonstrated.
You Kippers seem to have lost all touch with reality. How in the name of heaven is a disputed membership fee even remotely 'not having control over our economy'?
It's a haggle over a bill, that's all. And Dave ain't gonna pay it, but if UKIP succeed in their goal of putting Ed M into No 10, I expect he will.
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
Keep pretending these payments are a tax - it only shows your ignorance. Payment to regional structiral funds are paid by countries not even in the EU. It is in our econoimic interest to see the poorer countries in Europe grow and be markets for our goods and services. The arguement is how the payments are calculated. The black economy for a start is purely hypothetical.
Welly, welly, welly, well. Is it is in our economic interest to see the poorer countries in Asia and Africa grow and be markets for our goods and services?
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
Keep pretending these payments are a tax - it only shows your ignorance. Payment to regional structiral funds are paid by countries not even in the EU. It is in our econoimic interest to see the poorer countries in Europe grow and be markets for our goods and services. The arguement is how the payments are calculated. The black economy for a start is purely hypothetical.
Welly, welly, welly, well. Is it is in our economic interest to see the poorer countries in Asia and Africa grow and be markets for our goods and services?
If Findlay and Murphy are really the best of the bunch, it shows what a state ScotsLab are in. One is a man with no profile but a lot of union backing (and UKLab have shown how effective that sort of choice can be) and the other a man who believes his UK career is coming to an end and needs to find a way of staying in his chosen field.
Such an inspiring choice.
The Nats must be delighted.
And yet the Nats lost the Referendum...
That doesn't mean that they've given up and gone home though. Given the state of the rest of the parties in Scotland, there's every chance that the constitutional question will come up again in the medium term.
That said, most Nats would be delighted if Murphy got the job. Findlay might be seen as more of a wildcard, who could potentially appeal to some of the softer, leftist Yes voters, but could also implode totally.
News for Ealing Central and Acton watchers. Today I received my first communication in four years from sitting MP, Angie Bray. And I had been thinking she'd given up any hope of defending the seat ... For the record, I still think she has no chance. The Labour candidate is Konnie Huq's not quite so attractive sister, btw.
Why do you think the Tories have no chance? In local elections, Euro elections, etc. the Tories have been either ahead or very slightly behind.
Ashcroft National Poll, 24-26 October: CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Fourth tie in as many days - very intriguing!
Disastrous polling for Labour...
And yet the last poll with a Tory lead was nigh on three weeks ago...
Luck of the draw. There have been 9 polls this month with the Tories level or ahead.
The Lab lead was 4% at the start of the month. It's now 1%. [my estimates]
I may have to bring my forecast of "real" crossover forward from January!
Can anyone explain the movement on Betfair over the last couple of weeks?
The Con price (for both most seats and majority) has drifted significantly - yet Con is in a much better position than it was a couple of weeks ago.
One can obviously argue about what chance they have but it is surely unarguable that they have a better chance than they had two weeks ago.
The only explanation is the polling in Rochester and the prospect of turmoil if the Tories lose it. Even if they do lose, which has shortened considerably over the last 2 weeks, I don't think the talk of letters challenging Cameron will come to much. Not least if he is then enjoying leads in the national polls.
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
Keep pretending these payments are a tax - it only shows your ignorance. Payment to regional structiral funds are paid by countries not even in the EU. It is in our econoimic interest to see the poorer countries in Europe grow and be markets for our goods and services. The arguement is how the payments are calculated. The black economy for a start is purely hypothetical.
Welly, welly, welly, well. Is it is in our economic interest to see the poorer countries in Asia and Africa grow and be markets for our goods and services?
I wish I had Excel...
Haven't you got Microsoft Office on your computer? (honest question!)
If Findlay and Murphy are really the best of the bunch, it shows what a state ScotsLab are in. One is a man with no profile but a lot of union backing (and UKLab have shown how effective that sort of choice can be) and the other a man who believes his UK career is coming to an end and needs to find a way of staying in his chosen field.
Such an inspiring choice.
The Nats must be delighted.
And yet the Nats lost the Referendum...
That doesn't mean that they've given up and gone home though. Given the state of the rest of the parties in Scotland, there's every chance that the constitutional question will come up again in the medium term.
That said, most Nats would be delighted if Murphy got the job. Findlay might be seen as more of a wildcard, who could potentially appeal to some of the softer, leftist Yes voters, but could also implode totally.
As such we no longer really even have control over our economy as dumbfounded Dave has just demonstrated.
You Kippers seem to have lost all touch with reality. How in the name of heaven is a disputed membership fee even remotely 'not having control over our economy'?
It's a haggle over a bill, that's all. And Dave ain't gonna pay it, but if UKIP succeed in their goal of putting Ed M into No 10, I expect he will.
If you do not know how much money you are going to have to pay out as seemingly Dave and George didn't (or so they claim) then how can they effectively plan or control the economy. its the same concept as immigration. How can you plan the public sector if you do not know how many people it is there to serve?
Its very simple Westminster and Whitehall are no longer in charge.
I must applaud our establishment parties and our government. They have outdone themselves this time. Only such morons could sign up to what is in effectively a National Turnover Tax so that whenever we grow as an economy the parasites in Brussels syphon more ill-gotten gains in a brazen act of daylight robbery. Its a disgrace.
Keep pretending these payments are a tax - it only shows your ignorance. Payment to regional structiral funds are paid by countries not even in the EU. It is in our econoimic interest to see the poorer countries in Europe grow and be markets for our goods and services. The arguement is how the payments are calculated. The black economy for a start is purely hypothetical.
Welly, welly, welly, well. Is it is in our economic interest to see the poorer countries in Asia and Africa grow and be markets for our goods and services?
I wish I had Excel...
Haven't you got Microsoft Office on your computer? (honest question!)
Dear me, but that is to be very forthright, Mr. Nabavi. He certainly will not pay it by the 1st December 2014, but paid it will be. It would appear that the demand is within the rules therefore the UK will pay
Huge LD vote to squeeze. And Labour gained something like 8 seats at the locals (on a council they already control). The wider area (Hammersmith & Fulham, Brent etc) has been turning markedly red and that's not likely to change no matter how badly Ed continues to do.
As such we no longer really even have control over our economy as dumbfounded Dave has just demonstrated.
You Kippers seem to have lost all touch with reality. How in the name of heaven is a disputed membership fee even remotely 'not having control over our economy'?
It's a haggle over a bill, that's all. And Dave ain't gonna pay it, but if UKIP succeed in their goal of putting Ed M into No 10, I expect he will.
If you do not know how much money you are going to have to pay out as seemingly Dave and George didn't (or so they claim) then how can they effectively plan or control the economy. its the same concept as immigration. How can you plan the public sector if you do not know how many people it is there to serve?
Its very simple Westminster and Whitehall are no longer in charge.
They don't know how much they are going to have to pay out for all sorts of things. For example, how many people will be out of work in a year's time? What about other benefits? There's much greater uncertainty there than there is about how much we'll have to pay to Europe, but somehow the country manages to continue in any case.
It's not impossible that Murphy will decide not to stand now,. He must be looking at the third of the vote that the trade unions will get and think he'll really struggle against Findlay. Not to mention the MSP's all seemingly standing aside today to give Findlay a clear run. A Westminster versus Scottish parliament battle is the last thing Scottish Labour needs right now.
Dear me, but that is to be very forthright, Mr. Nabavi. He certainly will not pay it by the 1st December 2014, but paid it will be. It would appear that the demand is within the rules therefore the UK will pay
Of course he is going to pay it. He just obfuscating to push it beyond next May which in turn will likely cost us a considerable level of penalties and interest for late payment on top.
As such we no longer really even have control over our economy as dumbfounded Dave has just demonstrated.
You Kippers seem to have lost all touch with reality. How in the name of heaven is a disputed membership fee even remotely 'not having control over our economy'?
It's a haggle over a bill, that's all. And Dave ain't gonna pay it, but if UKIP succeed in their goal of putting Ed M into No 10, I expect he will.
Think it's you that has lost all touch of reality if you really think 'Dave ain't gonna pay it'
Comments
Is it not possible the Labour lead increases again after a bad month?
One side effect of the current political focus being the Conservatives vs UKIP over the EU, immigration and Rochester & Strood is that Labour are bystanders to the political debate at present. That can't be good for their poll ratings.
And the only way equal power can be had is with an English Parliament.
We can all see which way the wind is blowing and it isn't in Ed's favour at the moment.
We await "events".
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/johann-lamont-quits-gordon-brown-4518919
Gordon Brown out say sources, but will anyone else get into the water until he issues definitive statement?
But it's looking bad for Labour.
Updated 2009-10 replay gives a Tory lead of 5.3% on polling day...
I also thought that but just wanted to check it wasn't my biases. Thanks
I am told byelection results modelling now actually indicate a Labour votes lead, so I guess we have conflict in the modelling
What's your forecast?
The Times has listed today the following canditates (that I totally copyright raped!!!)
Jim Murphy
Douglas Alexander
Anas Sarwar
Kezia Dugdale
Neil Findlay
Jenny Marra
It also is made all the more salient by the immigration debate. How have we got to the ridiculous situation where the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland needs to get the permission of the German Chancellor over how it controls its borders?
Lab Maj out of the question
Con seat lead likely
Con Maj possible
with the upside all with the Blues...
"According to the NHS Constitution, those values include a belief that the NHS “has a wider social duty to promote equality through the services it provides” and remains “free of charge”, financed “through national taxation”."
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/26/Medical-Students-to-be-Recruited-For-Commitment to-Values
'When Tony Blair first asked him to be Europe Minister, he told friends that his first thought was “at least it’s not Scotland”.'
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/jim-murphy-now-favourite-to-become-leader-of-scottish-labour/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=jim-murphy-now-favourite-to-become-leader-of-scottish-labour
This might be a throw-away line but it reveals a serious truth - for years Westminster Scots have looked down their nose at the Scottish Parliament and that came across during the referendum campaign.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29784568
The current betting market indicates only Drew Smith at 20-1 and then you're left with the likes of Douglas Alexander and some ex-SLAB leaders.
If English devolution is botched and unfair then resentment over Scottish MPs voting here on non-Scottish matters will fester.
Of course, Scottish separation could occur entirely separately, but the best thing for both England and the union is equality for the English through an English Parliament.
Lord Sunil: Thank you, Sunil!
Sunil: So Lord Sunil, what exactly is ELBOW? How is it calculated?
Lord Sunil: Well, Sunil, I'm glad you asked that question, and I'm more than happy to explain. ELBOW stands for "Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week" -
Sunil: - I take it that was a counterpunch to Jack W's ARSE?
Lord Sunil: Um, you could say that, yes!
Sunil: Please, Lord Sunil, do go on!
Lord Sunil: OK, as an alternative to the bog standard weekly averages on UKPR and such places, we at the Sunil on Sunday decided to look at the actual samples used for each poll within a given week, and the numbers obtained for each party, totting up the total number of respondents expressing a voting intention for each of the four main parties, and then calculating a percentage from these totals out of the total of weighted samples from that week's polls.
Sunil: Sounds simple enough. So what constitutes a week in ELBOW terms?
Lord Sunil: For our purposes, it's Sunday to Saturday, given our historic Sunday publishing date. So any poll with fieldwork ending on a Sunday and then all polls with fieldwork end-dates up to and including the following Saturday are included in that week's ELBOW.
Sunil: So any obvious trends?
Lord Sunil: Well it would appear that Labour were full steam ahead from mid-August till late-September with a lead of 3% rising to around 4.5%. But since the end of the Conference season, they have taken a tumble. This week's ELBOW has them leading by just 1.1%, and this is the 4th straight week that the Labour lead has fallen.
Sunil: Interesting stuff! Have you or any of the Sunil on Sunday editorial team made any bets using your data?
Lord Sunil: I'm afraid I can't divulge that information!
Sunil: But there are rumours that your resident clairvoyant, Mystic Smeg, predicts that both of the main parties will get 250 seats or more. And your film critic, Mark Commode, predicts a small Tory majority.
Lord Sunil: That's the first I've heard of that. I'll have to have to give them a pep talk at tomorrow's editorial board meeting!
Sunil: So you'll be publishing an ELBOW every week up to the General Election?
Lord Sunil: Yes, of course! Remember this will be an alternative measure to the standard arithmetic polling averages published on other sites.
Sunil: And after the election?
Lord Sunil: Well, we'll see. We may well take a break as in all likelihood there won't be a Parliamentary contest for a couple of years. Then again, if the Election produces an unstable Parliament, another Election could well ensue soon after.
Sunil: Thank you, Lord Sunil!
Lord Sunil: A pleasure, Sunil!
The arguement is how the payments are calculated. The black economy for a start is purely hypothetical.
And it ain't Ramping!!!!
http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg190/Pulpstar/findlay.jpg
Unlike Cameron I simply paid up rather than blow up in a hissy fit .
The Con price (for both most seats and majority) has drifted significantly - yet Con is in a much better position than it was a couple of weeks ago.
One can obviously argue about what chance they have but it is surely unarguable that they have a better chance than they had two weeks ago.
(your knighthood's in the post)
The sooner we are out the better.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regions_of_France
We have an existing natural unit: England. There is absolutely no reason to divide it up. The English are a people. They deserve their own parliament.
"Regions lack separate legislative authority and therefore cannot write their own statutory law."
From your own bloody link.
In fact, modern English developed as it did precisely because the various dialects were not mutually intelligible - at its root it was pidgin language that enabled people with different first languages to communicate. Likewise, systems of landholding were very different in different parts of the country, as were inheritance laws and so on. It's hardly a controversial point Socrates - most people did not leave the area they were born into and never came into contact with people from elsewhere.
What could be more simple than that?
The only stat that matters is the Lab/Con margin - unless anyone thinks UKIP will do spectacularly - say get 25% to 30% - though even that wouldn't impact most seats.
Such an inspiring choice.
The Nats must be delighted.
"They levy their own taxes and, in return, receive a decreasing part of their budget from the central government, which gives them a portion of the taxes it levies. They also have considerable budgets managed by a regional council (conseil régional) made up of representatives voted into office in regional elections."
http://www.sevenoakschronicle.co.uk/Ukip-s-Sevenoaks-district-councillor-battle/story-23619587-detail/story.html
(*or Monday morning depending how late Opinium are with their tables!!)
It's a haggle over a bill, that's all. And Dave ain't gonna pay it, but if UKIP succeed in their goal of putting Ed M into No 10, I expect he will.
That said, most Nats would be delighted if Murphy got the job. Findlay might be seen as more of a wildcard, who could potentially appeal to some of the softer, leftist Yes voters, but could also implode totally.
A - they run the country
Its very simple Westminster and Whitehall are no longer in charge.
" And Dave ain't gonna pay it..."
Dear me, but that is to be very forthright, Mr. Nabavi. He certainly will not pay it by the 1st December 2014, but paid it will be. It would appear that the demand is within the rules therefore the UK will pay
Reply to Andy
Huge LD vote to squeeze. And Labour gained something like 8 seats at the locals (on a council they already control). The wider area (Hammersmith & Fulham, Brent etc) has been turning markedly red and that's not likely to change no matter how badly Ed continues to do.
Console yourself with this?
https://www.openoffice.org/why/index.html
does much the same but free.
I am well aware of OpenOffice
RT @OED: Before it referred to long speeches to prevent the passage of laws, "filibuster" referred to 18th-century Caribbean pirates.