"Here’s a little known Eurostar fact for you all, we’re required to provide space for the national authorities to move someone under arrest on our services, thus each of our trains has a private space with these points to attach handcuffs"
Really? I cannot remember that, Mind you, I got married on Warrior, so I've been on a life sentence ever since...
(Seriously though, what are you referring to?)
The ship's 2 (?) cells on the ?orlop deck at the bow. Prison, or cells, the RN would call it rather than the American 'brig'? I can't find a decent photo apart from this odd sounding website|:
Apparently the writer of “the email” is some kind of pest. There’s a harassment case.
Any more details? source?
Twitter, obvs. People are hastily deleting posts etc.
It was definitely very odd. I couldn't read more than a couple of sentences without losing interest and scrolled down to see a wall of links to tweets.
I scanned it quickly. It seemed salacious. I read it again. It seemed very dull.
As I posted last night, it’s a tawdry attempt to ruin someone’s day (and perhaps life). No surprises to me that it seems to be part of a broader campaign of harassment.
"Here’s a little known Eurostar fact for you all, we’re required to provide space for the national authorities to move someone under arrest on our services, thus each of our trains has a private space with these points to attach handcuffs"
Really? I cannot remember that, Mind you, I got married on Warrior, so I've been on a life sentence ever since...
(Seriously though, what are you referring to?)
The ship's 2 (?) cells on the ?orlop deck at the bow. Prison, or cells, the RN would call it rather than the American 'brig'? I can't find a decent photo apart from this odd sounding website|:
Are the Tories just down to their core pensioner vote now?
Would be interested to see what exactly will be in their manifesto. Expect some proper red meat like the ECHR withdrawal, compulsory service for the young and proposals to make office working mandatory
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
@whatukthinks With the publication of today's @Omnisis poll, our post-#Brexit poll of polls now stands at 'In EU' 58 (+1); 'Out EU' 42 (-1).
That's still 42% (minus some don't know's I assume) who are happy to stay out, many of whom would be pretty angry if we had another poll so quickly.
I doubt any Labour politicians will look at the GE polls, and think they'd prefer to go back to splitting the electorate on Brexit lines. Much better to get into power, and gradually soften the relationship to something a little more rational.
25% for the Tories there though is higher than the 22% with Yougov
I have to admire that response!
Nothing to admire there, comparing apples with pears became Psephologicaly embarrassing before I was even born! YouGov fruit has ref and green on 9 at expense of larger parties. Overall picture is this slide for the Tories is becoming alarming now.
To be analytical, there was a commentary in “I” newspaper this week that Sunak has reshuffle problem because his cabinet is unpopular. I think he hasn’t even been in hot seat a year, much of this is electorate summing him up. I think Sunak is the Tory problem, immaturely over promising and under delivering really turning voters off.
What made people think Sunak was a wunderkind? His financial decision making in this parliament has been dire.
Whilst he's been found out at the top level by being promoted too quickly, a lot of it isn't his fault, really. You could reanimate a fusion of Thatcher, Churchill and Disraeli and they would struggle to lead the Conservative government right now.
The fallout of N years of poor decisions (where N is somewhere between 1 and 78, possibly more, depending on your political taste) is managing to land on Sunak all at once. Some of it is down to policies and people he has supported, but quite a lot isn't.
But Sunak hasn’t been powerless the last 5 years. As Chief Secretary he was sent out for Conservatives in the last big debate during last election. Before becoming PM he was Chancellor for most of this parliament.
If UK is trailing most of our equivalent world rivals across range of key economic metrics, growth, inflation, debt, quality of public services, how much of that should he own - just the bit from when he became Primeminister? Likewise, if his own rightwing tribe unhappy with borrowing, debt, interest rates, inflation and levels of tax right now, how much of that should Rishi Sunak own - just the bit since he became Primeminister?
It’s not just his awful record and unconvincing performances since becoming Primeminister; all things dragging the Tory polling down, years in the making, have Sunak’s fingerprints all over them.
Yes and no.
There are lots of things where Rishi has screwed up horribly. He gets much less flack than he deserves for backing Brexit, Boris and (now) Braverman. I really don't like the way he has let inflation muck around with the income tax system- it's dishonest and transfers burden from richer to poorer tax payers. He's also flat out bad at communication, seems poor at empathy and has been incredibly cowardly when facing up to the scandals in his party.
But some of the problems we face are things that have been ticking away for decades, and were always going to blow up on someone's watch. It's not Sunak's fault that the UK has done too little investment for decades. It's not his fault that we have repeatedly looked for one-off windfalls to pay for current spending. It's not his fault that we fund way too much of our national lifestyle by slicing 0.1% off transactions in the City. It's not his fault that we have a stupid planning system that stops people doing stuff. He's gone along with those things, and more, but they have been part of the system for as long as I can remember.
He's playing the hand he has been dealt badly. But even if he, or someone else, were to play it better, it would still be a terrible hand, and almost certainly a losing one.
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Yes yes yes, all very amusing. But that's not actually going to happen is it?
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
25% for the Tories there though is higher than the 22% with Yougov
I have to admire that response!
Nothing to admire there, comparing apples with pears became Psephologicaly embarrassing before I was even born! YouGov fruit has ref and green on 9 at expense of larger parties. Overall picture is this slide for the Tories is becoming alarming now.
To be analytical, there was a commentary in “I” newspaper this week that Sunak has reshuffle problem because his cabinet is unpopular. I think he hasn’t even been in hot seat a year, much of this is electorate summing him up. I think Sunak is the Tory problem, immaturely over promising and under delivering really turning voters off.
What made people think Sunak was a wunderkind? His financial decision making in this parliament has been dire.
Whilst he's been found out at the top level by being promoted too quickly, a lot of it isn't his fault, really. You could reanimate a fusion of Thatcher, Churchill and Disraeli and they would struggle to lead the Conservative government right now.
The fallout of N years of poor decisions (where N is somewhere between 1 and 78, possibly more, depending on your political taste) is managing to land on Sunak all at once. Some of it is down to policies and people he has supported, but quite a lot isn't.
But Sunak hasn’t been powerless the last 5 years. As Chief Secretary he was sent out for Conservatives in the last big debate during last election. Before becoming PM he was Chancellor for most of this parliament.
If UK is trailing most of our equivalent world rivals across range of key economic metrics, growth, inflation, debt, quality of public services, how much of that should he own - just the bit from when he became Primeminister? Likewise, if his own rightwing tribe unhappy with borrowing, debt, interest rates, inflation and levels of tax right now, how much of that should Rishi Sunak own - just the bit since he became Primeminister?
It’s not just his awful record and unconvincing performances since becoming Primeminister; all things dragging the Tory polling down, years in the making, have Sunak’s fingerprints all over them.
One of your best posts. Rishi supported and then went on to administer, manage, and now leads, the government’s entire economic strategy.
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Yes yes yes, all very amusing. But that's not actually going to happen is it?
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
I can see the Opeds from Hodges and Lilco now:
"Why Starmer's 450 seat majority will make governing difficult"
"New Ofsted report rates Ruth Perry's school as good
The school run by a head teacher who took her own life after a critical Ofsted report has been rated as good after a new inspection. Ruth Perry died in January after being told Caversham Primary School in Berkshire was being downgraded from outstanding to inadequate. The school was re-inspected after Ms Perry's death, which prompted an outpouring of anger about the system. Ofsted has defended its one-word grades, which are not being scrapped."
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Yes yes yes, all very amusing. But that's not actually going to happen is it?
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
I can see the Opeds from Hodges and Lilco now:
"Why Starmer's 450 seat majority will make governing difficult"
In all seriousness, if he gets an insane majority like that, anything over 250 - let alone 400 - then it will come with *some* difficulties
He will come under a lot of pressure from his Remainery set to take us right back into the EU as far as he can (without a referendum) - Single Market and CU? And he would personally want to do that
There will be other favourite Labour causes that many will want him to force through, given that it is likely Labour will never have such immense power ever again
Meanwhile, Sunak will have it relatively easy, as his Shadow Cabinet will consist of three people, not including him, as there will only be two Tory MPs left, and one will bring his dog to act as Shadow Chancellor
No.idea if its been covered but just had an e mail from Kessler in the Standard...Labour 8pts ahead in Uxbridge. Usual caveats about single constituency polling.
Are the Tories just down to their core pensioner vote now?
Would be interested to see what exactly will be in their manifesto. Expect some proper red meat like the ECHR withdrawal, compulsory service for the young and proposals to make office working mandatory
Why do you always look at things in terms of age and not class?
Meanwhile, Sunak will have it relatively easy, as his Shadow Cabinet will consist of three people, not including him, as there will only be two Tory MPs left, and one will bring his dog to act as Shadow Chancellor
Sunak will not be leader after the election. He may not be leader before the election. He may not be an MP...
@whatukthinks With the publication of today's @Omnisis poll, our post-#Brexit poll of polls now stands at 'In EU' 58 (+1); 'Out EU' 42 (-1).
That's still 42% (minus some don't know's I assume) who are happy to stay out, many of whom would be pretty angry if we had another poll so quickly.
I doubt any Labour politicians will look at the GE polls, and think they'd prefer to go back to splitting the electorate on Brexit lines. Much better to get into power, and gradually soften the relationship to something a little more rational.
Starmer isn't going to push hard on Europe on those figures. But "stay out" has to run awfully fast to stand still, and right now it isn't even doing that.
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Yes yes yes, all very amusing. But that's not actually going to happen is it?
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
But aren’t things expected to get worse? There’s hardly going to be swingback if interest rates continue to rise, the boats aren’t stopped, public debt continues to increase and NHS waiting lists continue to be too high. Oh - and an expected recession.
I am thinking that the key factor in determining whether the next GE is a defeat or a disaster might be the number of foot soldiers the LibDems can muster.
1. The base assumption has to be, at the moment, that Labour will hoover up pretty much all the Con-Lab marginals, and beyond in the next election - but... 2. There are a lot of seats where Labour will struggle in the next GE, but where LibDems could potentially cause the Cons bother - but the key is potential. Outside election time, there will be a target list of seats which will be getting regular LibDem messaging, with an active candidate building their profile. 3. But there will be other seats -quite a lot of them - where Labour voters may be willing to vote tactically, and hacked off Tory voters will be willing to vote against the Con but not for Labour, and the LibDems are in a position to benefit. 4. A lot is normally made of how good the LibDems are at by elections, in particular their tactical adroitness, and their ability to spend right up to the limit (not beyond it, right up to it, never beyond it, oh no). But a key factor is getting their leaflets, newspapers and just message to the voters - making them realise the LibDems are in with a shot. 5. How many workers do the LibDems need - not to run a by election campaign, but to run something between a target seat campaign and a development campaign? How many do they have? How many of those not-currently-a-target-but-vulnerable-to tactical-voting seats can they run a campaign in? Because in the current environment, any and every such seat will be very, very vulnerable.
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Yes yes yes, all very amusing. But that's not actually going to happen is it?
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
I can see the Opeds from Hodges and Lilco now:
"Why Starmer's 450 seat majority will make governing difficult"
In all seriousness, if he gets an insane majority like that, anything over 250 - let alone 400 - then it will come with *some* difficulties
He will come under a lot of pressure from his Remainery set to take us right back into the EU as far as he can (without a referendum) - Single Market and CU? And he would personally want to do that
There will be other favourite Labour causes that many will want him to force through, given that it is likely Labour will never have such immense power ever again
Meanwhile, Sunak will have it relatively easy, as his Shadow Cabinet will consist of three people, not including him, as there will only be two Tory MPs left, and one will bring his dog to act as Shadow Chancellor
Sunak will have it relatively easy because he will be leaving politics to spend more time with his wife's money. He wouldn't be staying as LOTO in any situation worse than a mild defeat. And if the Tories have any sense he won't even be fighting the election.
Meanwhile, Sunak will have it relatively easy, as his Shadow Cabinet will consist of three people, not including him, as there will only be two Tory MPs left, and one will bring his dog to act as Shadow Chancellor
Sunak will not be leader after the election. He may not be leader before the election. He may not be an MP...
Are the Tories just down to their core pensioner vote now?
Would be interested to see what exactly will be in their manifesto. Expect some proper red meat like the ECHR withdrawal, compulsory service for the young and proposals to make office working mandatory
Why do you always look at things in terms of age and not class?
Because that's what the Cons are down to - the grey vote.
@whatukthinks With the publication of today's @Omnisis poll, our post-#Brexit poll of polls now stands at 'In EU' 58 (+1); 'Out EU' 42 (-1).
That's still 42% (minus some don't know's I assume) who are happy to stay out, many of whom would be pretty angry if we had another poll so quickly.
I doubt any Labour politicians will look at the GE polls, and think they'd prefer to go back to splitting the electorate on Brexit lines. Much better to get into power, and gradually soften the relationship to something a little more rational.
Starmer isn't going to push hard on Europe on those figures. But "stay out" has to run awfully fast to stand still, and right now it isn't even doing that.
Age of 44 year olds by age bracket: 18-24: 0% 23-34: 0% 35-44: 91% 45-44: 9% 55-64: 0% 65-74: 0% 75+: 0%
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Yes yes yes, all very amusing. But that's not actually going to happen is it?
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
I can see the Opeds from Hodges and Lilco now:
"Why Starmer's 450 seat majority will make governing difficult"
In all seriousness, if he gets an insane majority like that, anything over 250 - let alone 400 - then it will come with *some* difficulties
He will come under a lot of pressure from his Remainery set to take us right back into the EU as far as he can (without a referendum) - Single Market and CU? And he would personally want to do that
There will be other favourite Labour causes that many will want him to force through, given that it is likely Labour will never have such immense power ever again
Meanwhile, Sunak will have it relatively easy, as his Shadow Cabinet will consist of three people, not including him, as there will only be two Tory MPs left, and one will bring his dog to act as Shadow Chancellor
Things could become dysfunctional very quickly. He'll be trying to implement fairly controversial Brownite constitutional reforms while facing pressure from disparate single-issue factions and dealing with a difficult economic situation.
44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children
Discuss
In my less enlightened moments, after a skin full, I like the idea that the punishment matches the crime in murder, so that chap who killed the mother and children gets a nice bonfire send off.
When I’m feeling fluffy and kind I think that anyone convicted of murder, where it’s beyond all doubt, gets used as a human Guinea pig for various treatments for illnesses where the illness can be induced in them. If they die then, as HYuFD would say “it’s what god would have wanted”, but if they live and the tests they were part of save lives then they have given back to society that they damaged by their actions.
This is why I am not a politician or an ethics professor.
44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children
Discuss
I've no idea what you're talking about
Elaborate
Two prominent sentencing decisions today, both cases abominations. Both borderline whole life orders. Neither is all that far out of line, but whole life could be justified. But it's a good idea to keep it for very rare cases or we go even more like USA. Both cases reflect the rising tariff in recent years. One tells the general public not to take the machine gun when going out. The other, don't set fire to next door house when they are in it. But we knew that, apart from those who didn't.
44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children
Discuss
I've no idea what you're talking about
Elaborate
Two prominent sentencing decisions today, both cases abominations. Both borderline whole life orders. Neither is all that far out of line, but whole life could be justified. But it's a good idea to keep it for very rare cases or we go even more like USA. Both cases reflect the rising tariff in recent years. One tells the general public not to take the machine gun when going out. The other, don't set fire to next door house when they are in it. But we knew that, apart from those who didn't.
Ok. Sounds like horrible people getting severely punished for their horrible acts. Not sure I can muster the apparently required level of excitement.
44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children
Discuss
In my less enlightened moments, after a skin full, I like the idea that the punishment matches the crime in murder, so that chap who killed the mother and children gets a nice bonfire send off.
When I’m feeling fluffy and kind I think that anyone convicted of murder, where it’s beyond all doubt, gets used as a human Guinea pig for various treatments for illnesses where the illness can be induced in them. If they die then, as HYuFD would say “it’s what god would have wanted”, but if they live and the tests they were part of save lives then they have given back to society that they damaged by their actions.
This is why I am not a politician or an ethics professor.
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Yes yes yes, all very amusing. But that's not actually going to happen is it?
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
But aren’t things expected to get worse? There’s hardly going to be swingback if interest rates continue to rise, the boats aren’t stopped, public debt continues to increase and NHS waiting lists continue to be too high. Oh - and an expected recession.
Ok that’s fair. But I still think the Tories will easily get over 10 seats, so all this panic is overblown
44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children
Discuss
I've no idea what you're talking about
Elaborate
Two prominent sentencing decisions today, both cases abominations. Both borderline whole life orders. Neither is all that far out of line, but whole life could be justified. But it's a good idea to keep it for very rare cases or we go even more like USA. Both cases reflect the rising tariff in recent years. One tells the general public not to take the machine gun when going out. The other, don't set fire to next door house when they are in it. But we knew that, apart from those who didn't.
They are juxtaposed on the front page of sky news. My own view is both are terrible, but the burning is worse by a factor of 10. But 4 years less.
44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children
Discuss
In my less enlightened moments, after a skin full, I like the idea that the punishment matches the crime in murder, so that chap who killed the mother and children gets a nice bonfire send off.
When I’m feeling fluffy and kind I think that anyone convicted of murder, where it’s beyond all doubt, gets used as a human Guinea pig for various treatments for illnesses where the illness can be induced in them. If they die then, as HYuFD would say “it’s what god would have wanted”, but if they live and the tests they were part of save lives then they have given back to society that they damaged by their actions.
This is why I am not a politician or an ethics professor.
I guess the main difficulty comes when you have burned a murderer to death and then you find out you got the wrong guy. I presume you wouldn't then similarly cast yourself into the flames.
Are the Tories just down to their core pensioner vote now?
Would be interested to see what exactly will be in their manifesto. Expect some proper red meat like the ECHR withdrawal, compulsory service for the young and proposals to make office working mandatory
Why do you always look at things in terms of age and not class?
Because that's what the Cons are down to - the grey vote.
Pretty much this. I get the cons have done nothing for the less well off as well - but the policy dividing line by age is so stark now.
"New Ofsted report rates Ruth Perry's school as good
The school run by a head teacher who took her own life after a critical Ofsted report has been rated as good after a new inspection. Ruth Perry died in January after being told Caversham Primary School in Berkshire was being downgraded from outstanding to inadequate. The school was re-inspected after Ms Perry's death, which prompted an outpouring of anger about the system. Ofsted has defended its one-word grades, which are not being scrapped."
44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children
Discuss
In my less enlightened moments, after a skin full, I like the idea that the punishment matches the crime in murder, so that chap who killed the mother and children gets a nice bonfire send off.
When I’m feeling fluffy and kind I think that anyone convicted of murder, where it’s beyond all doubt, gets used as a human Guinea pig for various treatments for illnesses where the illness can be induced in them. If they die then, as HYuFD would say “it’s what god would have wanted”, but if they live and the tests they were part of save lives then they have given back to society that they damaged by their actions.
This is why I am not a politician or an ethics professor.
I guess the main difficulty comes when you have burned a murderer to death and then you find out you got the wrong guy. I presume you wouldn't then similarly cast yourself into the flames.
"New Ofsted report rates Ruth Perry's school as good
The school run by a head teacher who took her own life after a critical Ofsted report has been rated as good after a new inspection. Ruth Perry died in January after being told Caversham Primary School in Berkshire was being downgraded from outstanding to inadequate. The school was re-inspected after Ms Perry's death, which prompted an outpouring of anger about the system. Ofsted has defended its one-word grades, which are not being scrapped."
@whatukthinks With the publication of today's @Omnisis poll, our post-#Brexit poll of polls now stands at 'In EU' 58 (+1); 'Out EU' 42 (-1).
That's still 42% (minus some don't know's I assume) who are happy to stay out, many of whom would be pretty angry if we had another poll so quickly.
I doubt any Labour politicians will look at the GE polls, and think they'd prefer to go back to splitting the electorate on Brexit lines. Much better to get into power, and gradually soften the relationship to something a little more rational.
Starmer isn't going to push hard on Europe on those figures. But "stay out" has to run awfully fast to stand still, and right now it isn't even doing that.
Age of 44 year olds by age bracket: 18-24: 0% 23-34: 0% 35-44: 91% 45-44: 9% 55-64: 0% 65-74: 0% 75+: 0%
On topic, if the Mousey one was in the mural, then there could have been copyright*/trademark** issues which would have been a much better spin to put on things than sticking it to the migrant kids.
*original copyright expires in 2024, so all depictions since then would be covered, I guess **not sure whether registered trade mark and can't be bothered to check, but I'd expect so
I don’t think copyright is a slam dunk. You can use copyrighted materials in the U.K. if you can apply one or more of a number of ‘fair dealing’ exceptions to copyright law, which means that certain uses of an artistic work do not require permission from the copyright owner so long as the use is considered to be ‘fair’. It’s possible (although this is outside my area) this use could fall within “educational” in that it is intended to create a calmer environment for children out of their native environment to play and learn.
More relevant, given that no possible commercial advantage was being gained by anyone by this use, it’s hard to see what damage Disney could suffer, and thus what remedy they could claim. Quite the opposite in fact - if anything HMG was freely advertising their products. Does Disney want a situation where every school, youth group etc up and down the U.K. is too scared to put The Mouse on their walls?
Sorry for picking this up again late.
I would imagine there are Disney-licensed posters, maybe even large wall stickers etc. The exceptions, particularly in UK are quite narrow (US has a bit more formalised fair use compared to here). Essentially, if Disney has in the past licensed the characters for large wall art and been paid then that, surely, is the case for loss? Clearer perhaps if someone was paid to do the work (who should then have given Disnet a cut) rather than if it was purely a volunteer thing.
IANAL (I know that you are, so if you have expertise in this area then I bow to you) but I did work - quite some time ago - in intellectual property, on the government side, including a bit of policy (although not much on copyright). Remembering the difficulties over things like format shifting, I'm not convinced that Disney would have problems in law if they had wanted to pursue this and the mural was a pretty direct copy/very clearly derived work of something from Disney, rather than just a mouse and other characters who look a bit like Mickey and co.
The bigger question would be whether Disney would be stupid enough to want to look as mean and nasty as Scar the UK Tory Party
Meanwhile, Sunak will have it relatively easy, as his Shadow Cabinet will consist of three people, not including him, as there will only be two Tory MPs left, and one will bring his dog to act as Shadow Chancellor
Sunak will not be leader after the election. He may not be leader before the election. He may not be an MP...
Yesterday, in a BIG open room, on secured second floor of an even bigger building, King County Elections conducted legally-required Logic and Accuracy testing of ballot tabulation equipment being used to count votes for the August 1, 2023 primary.
Testing was observed by local Democratic observers (no Republicans showed up) plus three candidates. Results of test matched expected results, with every race and ballot style tested, for every tabulating machine being used to count votes for the primary. Then all machines were cleared, with "zero report" run confirming this, and sealed until scanning of returned AND verified ballots begins in just over a week.
Note that the main "drop" of outgoing ballots to all active registered voters is next week, as per state law; ballots to military and overseas voters have already gone out, and some of these have already come back.
Off-year primary is limited to local candidate races and ballot measures, for example some county council seats, and all Seattle district (as opposed to at-large) members of city council.
One wrinkle is that for many offices, if only two candidates file, the race is NOT on primary ballot, instead will be voted on only in fall general election. Including King County Director of Elections, for which only two candidates filed: the nonpartisan incumbent, and a perennially unsuccessful GOP candidate and elections critic, part of civil suit alleging election fraud versus KC Elections Director that was just laughed out of court.
"New Ofsted report rates Ruth Perry's school as good
The school run by a head teacher who took her own life after a critical Ofsted report has been rated as good after a new inspection. Ruth Perry died in January after being told Caversham Primary School in Berkshire was being downgraded from outstanding to inadequate. The school was re-inspected after Ms Perry's death, which prompted an outpouring of anger about the system. Ofsted has defended its one-word grades, which are not being scrapped."
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Yes yes yes, all very amusing. But that's not actually going to happen is it?
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
Just turned my computer on and Australia now 8 down! How did that happen? Ah, I see, the browser hasn't been refreshed since halfway through the Lord's game. Oh.
Anyway - anticipating a quiet session here, I have made the last minute decision to take some daughters off to Old Trafford for the T20 quarter final against Surrey. Regrettably, my good luck daughter - who in eleven sporting events she has watched live has never seen her chosen team lose - cannot make it, which bodes ill for Lancs. But it is a glorious evening for it and I am looking forward to it.
It's worth noting that at the size of swings we're looking at, any simple model predicting seats can be wildly wrong because the margin of error for regional variation is so large.
But regardless, we're back in a situation where the Tories need a significant turnaround just to bring themselves back to a 10pt defeat.
And the economic and political outlook for Sunak looks dire. And we seem to be at a Tory MP sleaze story a month.
"New Ofsted report rates Ruth Perry's school as good
The school run by a head teacher who took her own life after a critical Ofsted report has been rated as good after a new inspection. Ruth Perry died in January after being told Caversham Primary School in Berkshire was being downgraded from outstanding to inadequate. The school was re-inspected after Ms Perry's death, which prompted an outpouring of anger about the system. Ofsted has defended its one-word grades, which are not being scrapped."
Re. Ruth Perry, that new grade makes it feel worse somehow…such a sad situation
They had decided both grades before ever they set foot in the school. Which is one reason why their grading system has become utterly worthless.
The tragedy in this case is that it cost somebody's life.
The wider tragedy is that they remain perversely and wilfully blind to their own failings.
When I was a young teacher I used to be frightened to death of Ofsted Inspections and always doubted my methods and ideals because of them. In my latter years before retirement I got to couldn't care less status because if my school didn't like my methods, they'd sack me anyway. My standards and expectations have varied very little. As far as I was concerned, it was what I always believed in, whatever they said.
Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-
Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons! https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766
We need to get back to class-based politics, not based on age.
Except that the upper middle class as a socio economic group and the over 50s overlap very considerably. Most of the nation's vast store of property wealth is held by the grey vote, as those who own outright or only have small balances left outstanding on their mortgages, and have made an absolute killing on the housing market simply through decades of near-continuous price inflation.
The broad story of the century so far is that asset prices have run well ahead of wages; that house price increases have largely beaten the rate of inflation, whereas salaries have lagged it or outright stagnated; and that the taxation of earned incomes has been relentlessly ramped to pay for old age pensions and health care, whereas the taxation of assets has been kept deliberately low (and cut considerably in the case of legacies.) It's a system structured to redistribute wealth upwards over time, from the young-poor to the old-rich.
The fact that a sizeable minority of the elderly - those who are not owner-occupiers - are hard-up doesn't negate the wider picture: the age divide observed in voting intention is also broadly indicative of the class divide. The older you are, the more likely you are to be economically strong and secure, and thus the more likely you are to stick with the Conservatives.
Indeed, but it'll more likely be used as a stick to beat the Scottish governing parties. However, some of the proposals eg supervised drug consumption facilities have already been put forward and vetoed by UKG, and Mr Sunak seems even less interested in social issues than the May and Johnson administrations (no idea re Ms Truss, that wasn't long enough).
We need to get back to class-based politics, not based on age.
What should those of us who don't know or care which class we are in do? At least I know my age, although on roughly the boundary between the shafted and shaftees.
We need to get back to class-based politics, not based on age.
Except that the upper middle class as a socio economic group and the over 50s overlap very considerably. Most of the nation's vast store of property wealth is held by the grey vote, as those who own outright or only have small balances left outstanding on their mortgages, and have made an absolute killing on the housing market simply through decades of near-continuous price inflation.
The broad story of the century so far is that asset prices have run well ahead of wages; that house price increases have largely beaten the rate of inflation, whereas salaries have lagged it or outright stagnated; and that the taxation of earned incomes has been relentlessly ramped to pay for old age pensions and health care, whereas the taxation of assets has been kept deliberately low (and cut considerably in the case of legacies.) It's a system structured to redistribute wealth upwards over time, from the young-poor to the old-rich.
The fact that a sizeable minority of the elderly - those who are not owner-occupiers - are hard-up doesn't negate the wider picture: the age divide observed in voting intention is also broadly indicative of the class divide. The older you are, the more likely you are to be economically strong and secure, and thus the more likely you are to stick with the Conservatives.
Class and wealth are surely quite separate in 2023 Britain?
Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-
Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons! https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766
Genuine LOL.
But why doesn't she strike every day of the year so her constituents don't have to put up with her?
We need to get back to class-based politics, not based on age.
Except that the upper middle class as a socio economic group and the over 50s overlap very considerably. Most of the nation's vast store of property wealth is held by the grey vote, as those who own outright or only have small balances left outstanding on their mortgages, and have made an absolute killing on the housing market simply through decades of near-continuous price inflation.
The broad story of the century so far is that asset prices have run well ahead of wages; that house price increases have largely beaten the rate of inflation, whereas salaries have lagged it or outright stagnated; and that the taxation of earned incomes has been relentlessly ramped to pay for old age pensions and health care, whereas the taxation of assets has been kept deliberately low (and cut considerably in the case of legacies.) It's a system structured to redistribute wealth upwards over time, from the young-poor to the old-rich.
The fact that a sizeable minority of the elderly - those who are not owner-occupiers - are hard-up doesn't negate the wider picture: the age divide observed in voting intention is also broadly indicative of the class divide. The older you are, the more likely you are to be economically strong and secure, and thus the more likely you are to stick with the Conservatives.
Class and wealth are surely quite separate in 2023 Britain?
As sung by "The Countess" on Real Housewives of NYC: 'Money can't buy you class'.
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:
Surrey East Claire Coutinho Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan Dorset North Simon Hoare Essex North West Kemi Badenoch Surrey Heath Michael Gove East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat) New Forest West Desmond Swayne South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi Hampshire East Damian Hinds Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson Christchurch Christopher Chope Castle Point Rebecca Harris Maldon John Whittingdale Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat) Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat) Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat) Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat) Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
Good afternoon Leon. Need to pass on an anecdote: 8am this morning, walking through Central Manchester, I passed a woman in her early 40s dressed in pink crocs, small pink shorts and a t-shirt bearing the slogan 'Yes Daddy'. I don't really have anyone in real life who I can think of who would be interested - so you were the first person who came to mind to share this with.
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:
Surrey East Claire Coutinho Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan Dorset North Simon Hoare Essex North West Kemi Badenoch Surrey Heath Michael Gove East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat) New Forest West Desmond Swayne South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi Hampshire East Damian Hinds Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson Christchurch Christopher Chope Castle Point Rebecca Harris Maldon John Whittingdale Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat) Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat) Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat) Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat) Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
So the ghost of Cheryl Gillan, in a seat held by the Liberal Democrats, rides out the apocalypse?
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:
Surrey East Claire Coutinho Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan Dorset North Simon Hoare Essex North West Kemi Badenoch Surrey Heath Michael Gove East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat) New Forest West Desmond Swayne South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi Hampshire East Damian Hinds Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson Christchurch Christopher Chope Castle Point Rebecca Harris Maldon John Whittingdale Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat) Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat) Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat) Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat) Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
So the ghost of Cheryl Gillan, in a seat held by the Liberal Democrats, rides out the apocalypse?
These calculators don't usually take by-elections into account.
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:
Surrey East Claire Coutinho Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan Dorset North Simon Hoare Essex North West Kemi Badenoch Surrey Heath Michael Gove East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat) New Forest West Desmond Swayne South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi Hampshire East Damian Hinds Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson Christchurch Christopher Chope Castle Point Rebecca Harris Maldon John Whittingdale Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat) Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat) Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat) Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat) Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
So the ghost of Cheryl Gillan, in a seat held by the Liberal Democrats, rides out the apocalypse?
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
Good afternoon Leon. Need to pass on an anecdote: 8am this morning, walking through Central Manchester, I passed a woman in her early 40s dressed in pink crocs, small pink shorts and a t-shirt bearing the slogan 'Yes Daddy'. I don't really have anyone in real life who I can think of who would be interested - so you were the first person who came to mind to share this with.
I don’t think Catherine, Princess of Wales, would be interested in Leon to be honest.
I suspect motives when a word like 'decriminalise' is used when it looks like 'legalise'.
Use, possession and distribution need to be looked at in tandem. It is hopeless to make use lawful but trading illegal. As with prostitution if there are no users there are no suppliers. With theft, if there are no handlers big thefts would not happen. It is very unfashionable to say that use of drugs is the problem, not supply but it's true.
We treat users as if they are innocent automata. they are not. They, not suppliers are the problem.
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
Good afternoon Leon. Need to pass on an anecdote: 8am this morning, walking through Central Manchester, I passed a woman in her early 40s dressed in pink crocs, small pink shorts and a t-shirt bearing the slogan 'Yes Daddy'. I don't really have anyone in real life who I can think of who would be interested - so you were the first person who came to mind to share this with.
I don’t think Catherine, Princess of Wales, would be interested in Leon to be honest.
Stable Diffusion, please produce the following image...
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:
Surrey East Claire Coutinho Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan Dorset North Simon Hoare Essex North West Kemi Badenoch Surrey Heath Michael Gove East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat) New Forest West Desmond Swayne South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi Hampshire East Damian Hinds Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson Christchurch Christopher Chope Castle Point Rebecca Harris Maldon John Whittingdale Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat) Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat) Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat) Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat) Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
Yeah, we live in Brentwood and Ongar now so would still have a Tory MP in the excellent Alex Burghart even then
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @LeftieStats 🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-
Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons! https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766
She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
A source close to the Home Secretary Suella Braverman said: "Illegal drugs destroy lives and communities.
Yes. And that's partly a result of them being illegal. In some cases, we should drag the trade out of the hands of street thugs and put it in the hands of responsible manufacturers who will have incentives to make sure the potency of the drugs are predictable and that what people are taking is minimally toxic.
You know, like we do with alcohol.
Frankly I'd rather be on a bus full of people on E than a bus full of drunks.
Prohibition is harmful when the drug can be safely enjoyed without a high risk of psychosis or dependency. "Illegal drugs destroy lives and communities" is correct, but for the opposite reasons than Stupella thinks.
Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-
Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons! https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766
Wow, just wow.
Just a thought but how about teachers get a pay rise that is at least as high as inflation?
If there's enough money to give an inflationary pay rise to those on welfare, there ought to be more than enough for those working like teachers.
Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-
Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons! https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766
She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
Will Ms. Jenkyns be working during the summer holidays?
Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-
Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons! https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766
She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
Will Ms. Jenkyns be working during the summer holidays?
For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:
Surrey East Claire Coutinho Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan Dorset North Simon Hoare Essex North West Kemi Badenoch Surrey Heath Michael Gove East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat) New Forest West Desmond Swayne South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi Hampshire East Damian Hinds Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson Christchurch Christopher Chope Castle Point Rebecca Harris Maldon John Whittingdale Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat) Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat) Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat) Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat) Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
Yeah, we live in Brentwood and Ongar now so would still have a Tory MP in the excellent Alex Burghart even then
Turned your back on Epping, I see. No wonder you lost your seat on EFDC!
HMG have already knocked it back. One might almost think it suits them to have the horrendous drug problem in Scotland fester on as they blame the SG for it while abnegating their own responsibility. In case anyone was wondering* Reeves has also echoed Rishi’s line on this.
Comments
https://raeltv.rael.info/flickr_52514255709.html
I read it again. It seemed very dull.
As I posted last night, it’s a tawdry attempt to ruin someone’s day (and perhaps life). No surprises to me that it seems to be part of a broader campaign of harassment.
With the publication of today's
@Omnisis
poll, our post-#Brexit poll of polls now stands at 'In EU' 58 (+1); 'Out EU' 42 (-1).
https://www.flickr.com/photos/31068574@N05/7758406852
Would be interested to see what exactly will be in their manifesto. Expect some proper red meat like the ECHR withdrawal, compulsory service for the young and proposals to make office working mandatory
https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/1677313967402745860?s=46&t=16Vx1hkPdKeRguANzrOtZQ
"Interestingly, this would be a 19pt swing to Labour, almost exactly the same as the swing to the Canadian Liberals in 1993 that saw the Canadian Tories wiped out.
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️
@LeftieStats
🗳️ Changes from the 2019 election:
[ % ]
🔴 LAB 51% (+18)
🔵 CON 25% (-20)
🟠 LD 8% (-4)
🟣 REF 5% (+3)
🟢 GRN 5% (+2)
🟡 SNP 3% (-1)
[ Seats ]
🔴 LAB 566 (+364)
🟡 SNP 24 (-24)
🟠 LD 20 (+9)
🔵 CON 17 (-348)
🟢 GRN 1 (-)
Via
@Omnisis
, 6-7 Jul (+/- vs 29-30 Jun)"
Great long post by
@benwansell
on the parallels between Prohibition 1920-33 and Brexit 2020-?
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1677248684474478592?s=20
I doubt any Labour politicians will look at the GE polls, and think they'd prefer to go back to splitting the electorate on Brexit lines. Much better to get into power, and gradually soften the relationship to something a little more rational.
There are lots of things where Rishi has screwed up horribly. He gets much less flack than he deserves for backing Brexit, Boris and (now) Braverman. I really don't like the way he has let inflation muck around with the income tax system- it's dishonest and transfers burden from richer to poorer tax payers. He's also flat out bad at communication, seems poor at empathy and has been incredibly cowardly when facing up to the scandals in his party.
But some of the problems we face are things that have been ticking away for decades, and were always going to blow up on someone's watch. It's not Sunak's fault that the UK has done too little investment for decades. It's not his fault that we have repeatedly looked for one-off windfalls to pay for current spending. It's not his fault that we fund way too much of our national lifestyle by slicing 0.1% off transactions in the City. It's not his fault that we have a stupid planning system that stops people doing stuff. He's gone along with those things, and more, but they have been part of the system for as long as I can remember.
He's playing the hand he has been dealt badly. But even if he, or someone else, were to play it better, it would still be a terrible hand, and almost certainly a losing one.
44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children
Discuss
For a start, and most importantly it ignores the reality of Swingback. Which always happens. Once you factor in that, then the Tories will almost certainly get more than 20 seats. In fact I can see them retaining maybe 28 or 29, so Labour's potential overall majority would be slashed to about 489, with Starmer gravely weakened
Elaborate
"Why Starmer's 450 seat majority will make governing difficult"
The school run by a head teacher who took her own life after a critical Ofsted report has been rated as good after a new inspection. Ruth Perry died in January after being told Caversham Primary School in Berkshire was being downgraded from outstanding to inadequate. The school was re-inspected after Ms Perry's death, which prompted an outpouring of anger about the system. Ofsted has defended its one-word grades, which are not being scrapped."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66133695
He will come under a lot of pressure from his Remainery set to take us right back into the EU as far as he can (without a referendum) - Single Market and CU? And he would personally want to do that
There will be other favourite Labour causes that many will want him to force through, given that it is likely Labour will never have such immense power ever again
Meanwhile, Sunak will have it relatively easy, as his Shadow Cabinet will consist of three people, not including him, as there will only be two Tory MPs left, and one will bring his dog to act as Shadow Chancellor
18-24: 20% out, 80% rejoin
23-34: 28% out, 72% rejoin
35-44: 38% out, 62% rejoin
45-44: 37% out, 63% rejoin
55-64: 51% out, 49% rejoin
65-74: 63% out, 37% rejoin
75+: 73% out, 27% rejoin
(Last week's Omnisis, at https://omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/vi-41-results-30-06-2023/)
Starmer isn't going to push hard on Europe on those figures. But "stay out" has to run awfully fast to stand still, and right now it isn't even doing that.
1. The base assumption has to be, at the moment, that Labour will hoover up pretty much all the Con-Lab marginals, and beyond in the next election - but...
2. There are a lot of seats where Labour will struggle in the next GE, but where LibDems could potentially cause the Cons bother - but the key is potential. Outside election time, there will be a target list of seats which will be getting regular LibDem messaging, with an active candidate building their profile.
3. But there will be other seats -quite a lot of them - where Labour voters may be willing to vote tactically, and hacked off Tory voters will be willing to vote against the Con but not for Labour, and the LibDems are in a position to benefit.
4. A lot is normally made of how good the LibDems are at by elections, in particular their tactical adroitness, and their ability to spend right up to the limit (not beyond it, right up to it, never beyond it, oh no). But a key factor is getting their leaflets, newspapers and just message to the voters - making them realise the LibDems are in with a shot.
5. How many workers do the LibDems need - not to run a by election campaign, but to run something between a target seat campaign and a development campaign? How many do they have? How many of those not-currently-a-target-but-vulnerable-to tactical-voting seats can they run a campaign in? Because in the current environment, any and every such seat will be very, very vulnerable.
18-24: 0%
23-34: 0%
35-44: 91%
45-44: 9%
55-64: 0%
65-74: 0%
75+: 0%
When I’m feeling fluffy and kind I think that anyone convicted of murder, where it’s beyond all doubt, gets used as a human Guinea pig for various treatments for illnesses where the illness can be induced in them. If they die then, as HYuFD would say “it’s what god would have wanted”, but if they live and the tests they were part of save lives then they have given back to society that they damaged by their actions.
This is why I am not a politician or an ethics professor.
The Disappearance of Willie Bingham
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_flYlbBpSok
Ok that’s fair. But I still think the Tories will easily get over 10 seats, so all this panic is overblown
Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle
I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge
I would imagine there are Disney-licensed posters, maybe even large wall stickers etc. The exceptions, particularly in UK are quite narrow (US has a bit more formalised fair use compared to here). Essentially, if Disney has in the past licensed the characters for large wall art and been paid then that, surely, is the case for loss? Clearer perhaps if someone was paid to do the work (who should then have given Disnet a cut) rather than if it was purely a volunteer thing.
IANAL (I know that you are, so if you have expertise in this area then I bow to you) but I did work - quite some time ago - in intellectual property, on the government side, including a bit of policy (although not much on copyright). Remembering the difficulties over things like format shifting, I'm not convinced that Disney would have problems in law if they had wanted to pursue this and the mural was a pretty direct copy/very clearly derived work of something from Disney, rather than just a mouse and other characters who look a bit like Mickey and co.
The bigger question would be whether Disney would be stupid enough to want to look as mean and nasty as Scar the UK Tory Party
Yesterday, in a BIG open room, on secured second floor of an even bigger building, King County Elections conducted legally-required Logic and Accuracy testing of ballot tabulation equipment being used to count votes for the August 1, 2023 primary.
Testing was observed by local Democratic observers (no Republicans showed up) plus three candidates. Results of test matched expected results, with every race and ballot style tested, for every tabulating machine being used to count votes for the primary. Then all machines were cleared, with "zero report" run confirming this, and sealed until scanning of returned AND verified ballots begins in just over a week.
Note that the main "drop" of outgoing ballots to all active registered voters is next week, as per state law; ballots to military and overseas voters have already gone out, and some of these have already come back.
Off-year primary is limited to local candidate races and ballot measures, for example some county council seats, and all Seattle district (as opposed to at-large) members of city council.
One wrinkle is that for many offices, if only two candidates file, the race is NOT on primary ballot, instead will be voted on only in fall general election. Including King County Director of Elections, for which only two candidates filed: the nonpartisan incumbent, and a perennially unsuccessful GOP candidate and elections critic, part of civil suit alleging election fraud versus KC Elections Director that was just laughed out of court.
Punters, draw your own conclusions!
The tragedy in this case is that it cost somebody's life.
The wider tragedy is that they remain perversely and wilfully blind to their own failings.
Anyway - anticipating a quiet session here, I have made the last minute decision to take some daughters off to Old Trafford for the T20 quarter final against Surrey. Regrettably, my good luck daughter - who in eleven sporting events she has watched live has never seen her chosen team lose - cannot make it, which bodes ill for Lancs. But it is a glorious evening for it and I am looking forward to it.
If they were serious, they would support Labour now
Nick Cohen"
https://nickcohen.substack.com/p/how-the-conservative-moderates-opened
I would welcome the UK government being similarly open and not just instinctively going for the stick that has failed us for the last 50 years.
https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-government-calls-on-westminster-to-decriminalise-personal-drug-use-12916776
But regardless, we're back in a situation where the Tories need a significant turnaround just to bring themselves back to a 10pt defeat.
And the economic and political outlook for Sunak looks dire. And we seem to be at a Tory MP sleaze story a month.
I think Labour majority remains value at 1.5.
Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766
The broad story of the century so far is that asset prices have run well ahead of wages; that house price increases have largely beaten the rate of inflation, whereas salaries have lagged it or outright stagnated; and that the taxation of earned incomes has been relentlessly ramped to pay for old age pensions and health care, whereas the taxation of assets has been kept deliberately low (and cut considerably in the case of legacies.) It's a system structured to redistribute wealth upwards over time, from the young-poor to the old-rich.
The fact that a sizeable minority of the elderly - those who are not owner-occupiers - are hard-up doesn't negate the wider picture: the age divide observed in voting intention is also broadly indicative of the class divide. The older you are, the more likely you are to be economically strong and secure, and thus the more likely you are to stick with the Conservatives.
But why doesn't she strike every day of the year so her constituents don't have to put up with her?
Surrey East Claire Coutinho
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
Dorset North Simon Hoare
Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
Surrey Heath Michael Gove
East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
New Forest West Desmond Swayne
South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
Hampshire East Damian Hinds
Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Christchurch Christopher Chope
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Maldon John Whittingdale
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
I don't really have anyone in real life who I can think of who would be interested - so you were the first person who came to mind to share this with.
Use, possession and distribution need to be looked at in tandem. It is hopeless to make use lawful but trading illegal. As with prostitution if there are no users there are no suppliers. With theft, if there are no handlers big thefts would not happen. It is very unfashionable to say that use of drugs is the problem, not supply but it's true.
We treat users as if they are innocent automata. they are not. They, not suppliers are the problem.
52 Tory seats actually on those numbers anyway
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=25&LAB=51&LIB=8&Reform=5&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=31.5&SCOTLIB=7.8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=1.3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.4&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Yes. And that's partly a result of them being illegal.
In some cases, we should drag the trade out of the hands of street thugs and put it in the hands of responsible manufacturers who will have incentives to make sure the potency of the drugs are predictable and that what people are taking is minimally toxic.
You know, like we do with alcohol.
Frankly I'd rather be on a bus full of people on E than a bus full of drunks.
Prohibition is harmful when the drug can be safely enjoyed without a high risk of psychosis or dependency. "Illegal drugs destroy lives and communities" is correct, but for the opposite reasons than Stupella thinks.
Boris Johnson criticising London's Ultra Low Emission Zone as "an odious, unjustified tax on driving" in the Daily Mail.
Only snag is he set it up eight years ago ...
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1677348648730992640?s=20
Just a thought but how about teachers get a pay rise that is at least as high as inflation?
If there's enough money to give an inflationary pay rise to those on welfare, there ought to be more than enough for those working like teachers.
We just want to see Andy lobbing one over Stefanos's head; why do you have to snigger about it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-66130773
Sky News is wall to wall eco campaign platform, with special shows & campaigns dedicated to it. How is that that different?
Let me just say this now, its the hope that kills you.
In case anyone was wondering* Reeves has also echoed Rishi’s line on this.
*Gentle reader, no one was wondering.