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How BoJo can still go on hurting the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Cookie said:

    Yes, 'Vorderman goes full Icke' wasn't one I had on my 2023 bingo card.

    She's different from Lineker. Lineker just puts out highly conventional BBC opinions. He sounds - to my unsympathetic ears - smug and far less clever than he thinks he is. But he doesn't sound unhinged in the way Vorderman increasingly does.
    It's the difference between gobshite and rentagob. I don't seriously think Lineker has plans to make a living off his political outlook. Why would he? He makes proper wedge from football. He's just voicing his views, and ultimately there's nothing new or newsworthy in what he's saying (it was really just a bit of classic late-period Tory shoot-self-in-foot-ism trying to sack him for it).

    CV needs to parlay her public persona into ££ to make a living, and she won't do that by giving considered and reasonable opinions. She's got to say mad stuff to attract the eyeballs/ears/clicks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Ghedebrav said:

    I can't see posterity being kind to Truss, for the reasons you outline - other than perhaps a little on a human level. Epic hubris borne of the Tory party's institutional idiocy.
    If @DougSeal writes the history, you might be surprised.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    Shakespeare was an American, bent on polluting the purity of the English language? Who'd've thunk it?!?
    Nah, Shakespeare was Indian!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    edited June 2023
    Cookie said:

    The Watford Gap is a gap in a range of low hills in Northamptonshire, next to the village of Watford. A less famous Watford that its much larger namesake in Hertfordshire, but a perfectly cromulent Watford nonetheless.

    When people refer to 'north of the Watford Gap' it makes a lot more sense if you know that the Watford gap is here, not in Hertfordshire.
    Canal, then railway, then motorway. Wasn't it an important staging post for changing horses on carriages etc?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    edited June 2023
    Nigelb said:

    AI generated transcript.
    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673345590535544835

    This bit about how the march on Kyiv would have been fine if left to them is pure fantasy - but it might find an audience.
    ...In 24 hours, we covered the distance that corresponds to the distance from the launch site of Russian troops on February 24, 22 to Kyiv and from the same point to Uzhgorod.

    Therefore, if the action on February 24, 22, at the time of the start of the special operation, was carried out by a unit in terms of the level of training, in terms of the level of moral composure and readiness to perform tasks, like the Wagner PMC, then perhaps the special operation would last a day. It is clear that there were other problems, but we showed the level of organization that the Russian army should correspond to. And when on June 23-24 we walked past Russian cities, civilians met us with the flags of Russia and with the emblems and flags of the Wagner PMC...


    So he keeps on complaining. A brave/stupid move.

    Im not sure where this ends. It’s all very confusing.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited June 2023
    The statement from Prigozhin isn't too easy for Putin.

    He's careful to position himself as not to be publicly disloyal, but virtually the whole message is about positioning himself as an alternative power centre to Putin. We would have done it all better, we showed up problems in security in patchworks, etc.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    edited June 2023

    Shakespeare was an American, bent on polluting the purity of the English language? Who'd've thunk it?!?
    I remember reading that if you wanted to hear Shakespearean English, the best place to go would be rural coastal Virginia. For a long time, this part of the world was small and unchanging and relatively isolated and retained the tongue of its settlers; indeed, it was fast paced metropolitan Britain where language moved on. Much of what fusty Brits lament as American neologisms are actually American paleologisms.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429
    Cookie said:

    The Watford Gap is a gap in a range of low hills in Northamptonshire, next to the village of Watford. A less famous Watford that its much larger namesake in Hertfordshire, but a perfectly cromulent Watford nonetheless.

    When people refer to 'north of the Watford Gap' it makes a lot more sense if you know that the Watford gap is here, not in Hertfordshire.
    Used by Watling Street, The Grand Union Canal and the West Coast Main Line, as well as the M1.
  • darkage said:

    Ok zoning, subject to regulations and design codes. Not a bad idea and works in many countries. I struggle to really see how it is that different to outline planning permission or permission in principle. All the same issues would come up that come up at the point when the land was zoned as would be the case in an outline planning application, IE the roads, congestion, drainage, flooding, ecological, social infrastructure, impact on landscape. The delays that people associate with Council bureaucracy are usually actually rooted in a deeper and more pathological problems with the decision making processes of the British state, the legacy of shoddy attempts at privatisation and the aversion to spend public money on the part of government. None of that gets swept away with a new planning system.

    The only way you could immediately zone land for 3 million houses is to ignore the real planning consequences of doing so which would then become apparent extremely quickly.
    I'm curious what particular "consequences" would become apparent? Considering you'd have a net total of approximately zero extra cars on the road, net total of approximately zero extra pupils in school etc

    The thing is all the people, all the kids, all the cars etc are already here today. We aren't talking millions of extra people, just having enough homes for the people who are already here anyway.

    Its not as if kids are denied school places, just because their parents can't afford a home of their own. If their parents suddenly can get a home of their own, then the kids can keep going to the same school they're already going to anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    That's still 2025.

    "Denmark will decommission the F-16 two years earlier, which will bring their transfer to Ukraine closer" - DR.
    https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1673272212688629760
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Nah, Shakespeare was Indian!
    IIRC, at one point, Nazis maintained that Bard of Avon was a German (not Indian) Aryan, compelled to write in English by oppressive Elizabethan regime.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743
    edited June 2023
    148grss said:

    What stage of capitalism is it when even the IMF is willing to say "hey, maybe profit seeking is the problem here" and national governments are still banging on the drum about the threat of inflationary wage spirals?

    https://twitter.com/lslothuus/status/1673340395583950851?s=20

    We will see inflation increase as long as companies think they can extract profits without having to pay workers more. They could even follow the new path of most corporate landlords - where in the past landlords prioritised having a tenant over rent prices and so if they had empty rooms for too long they would negotiate down, the new system is to accept the loss in the short term to get the longer term profit from higher rents anyway. I worry we could see this with food - before waste loss might have been considered unacceptable, but now if they increase prices they could make up any wastage loss by those who can afford to pay the higher price still doing so.

    Who has bread riots in the UK on their 2023 bingo card?

    You might be interested in the pending RealPage lawsuit.

    edit: the idea behind RealPage seems pretty close to the salary aggregators used by HR.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    tlg86 said:

    Canal, then railway, then motorway. Wasn't it an important staging post for changing horses on carriages etc?
    Yes, on what was the old A1.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153
    edited June 2023

    Shakespeare was an American, bent on polluting the purity of the English language? Who'd've thunk it?!?
    I thought Shakespeare was a Klingon.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    Ghedebrav said:

    It's the difference between gobshite and rentagob. I don't seriously think Lineker has plans to make a living off his political outlook. Why would he? He makes proper wedge from football. He's just voicing his views, and ultimately there's nothing new or newsworthy in what he's saying (it was really just a bit of classic late-period Tory shoot-self-in-foot-ism trying to sack him for it).

    CV needs to parlay her public persona into ££ to make a living, and she won't do that by giving considered and reasonable opinions. She's got to say mad stuff to attract the eyeballs/ears/clicks.
    Well I agree with all that and I enjoyed the alliteration.
    But surely if you're Carol Vorderman there must be other more dignified ways of making a living?
    She's also appearing in some really, really bad adverts for something at the moment (insurance of some sort?)

    You'd have thought at her age and given her reasonably successful career she'd be in a position now to ease into a comfortable retirement. I wonder if something has gone seriously awry in the world of Vords.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    IIRC, at one point, Nazis maintained that Bard of Avon was a German (not Indian) Aryan, compelled to write in English by oppressive Elizabethan regime.
    Shakespeare is best appreciated in the original Klingon…
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,203
    Cookie said:

    I remember reading that if you wanted to hear Shakespearean English, the best place to go would be rural coastal Virginia. For a long time, this part of the world was small and unchanging and relatively isolated and retained the tongue of its settlers; indeed, it was fast paced metropolitan Britain where language moved on. Much of what fusty Brits lament as American neologisms are actually American paleologisms.
    I would vote for adopting spellings like color or valor in return for them using practice/practise or licence/license correctly.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead is twenty-three percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 47% (+1)
    Lib Dem 12% (+2)
    Other 16% (-)
    Fieldwork: 23rd - 26th June 2023
    Sample: 1,089 GB adults
    (Changes from 16th - 19th June 2023)

    Wait to people see the next set of Mortgage rates over 6.2% now for your average 2 year fixed...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    I understand that Nadine has missed the deadline to have a by-election in mid-Beds before the recess, so I think we quite likely won't see one there at all.

    The candidates in Somerton and Frome are:

    Lorna CORKE - Christian Peoples Alliance
    Martin DIMERY - The Green Party
    Sarah DYKE - The Liberal Democrats
    Bruce EVANS - Reform UK
    Neil GUILD - The Labour Party
    Rosie MITCHELL - Independent
    Faye PURBRICK - The Conservative Party
    Peter RICHARDSON -UKIP

    As a minor aside, it'll be interesting to see if Reform beats UKIP.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153

    Shakespeare is best appreciated in the original Klingon…
    taH pagh taHbe!

    (Yes I'm very sad)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Cookie said:

    I remember reading that if you wanted to hear Shakespearean English, the best place to go would be rural coastal Virginia. For a long time, this part of the world was small and unchanging and relatively isolated and retained the tongue of its settlers; indeed, it was fast paced metropolitan Britain where language moved on. Much of what fusty Brits lament as American neologisms are actually American paleologisms.
    Maybe. However, load of dubious claims along these lines, which interesting have tended to cite denizens of Appalachia (including West Virginia and western VA but NOT eastern VA) as speaking something very akin to Elizabethan English.

    Take such claims with large grains of salt. Which is NOT to say there's not (perhaps) a wee bit of there there.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219

    The statement from Prigozhin isn't too easy for Putin.

    He's careful to position himself as not to be publicly disloyal, but virtually the whole message is about positioning himself as an alternative power centre to Putin. We would have done it all better, we showed up problems in security in patchworks, etc.

    Yes, this betrays the weakness of Putin because Prigozhin isn’t shutting up. He’s not been silenced and he keeps poking the bear.

    If he’s going he’s not going quietly. Still feels like the scene is being set for - something - more, whatever that may be.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    On the Alabama and Louisiana redistricting cases: If you are an unscrupulous Republican tactician, you love the idea of concentrating any heavily Democratic group -- black, in those examples -- in a few districts, since that makes it so much easier for you to win majorities in the House, and in state legislatures.

    But it is bad for the states where it is done, and bad for the nation, as a whole.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    ...
    Cookie said:

    Well I agree with all that and I enjoyed the alliteration.
    But surely if you're Carol Vorderman there must be other more dignified ways of making a living?
    She's also appearing in some really, really bad adverts for something at the moment (insurance of some sort?)

    You'd have thought at her age and given her reasonably successful career she'd be in a position now to ease into a comfortable retirement. I wonder if something has gone seriously awry in the world of Vords.
    The anti-Conservative madness is but one of Carol's current idiosyncrasies. She is also quite keen to post selfies of herself in the skimpiest of skimpy bikinis. And to be fair, for a lady of 61 she looks far, far better than most of you lot would posing Chris Bryant- style in your budgie smugglers.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    The statement from Prigozhin isn't too easy for Putin.

    He's careful to position himself as not to be publicly disloyal, but virtually the whole message is about positioning himself as an alternative power centre to Putin. We would have done it all better, we showed up problems in security in patchworks, etc.

    Priogozhin alternative power center to Mad Vlad?

    Perhaps. But he's really more along the lines of another Russian (sorta) sociopath and war criminal:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_von_Ungern-Sternberg
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644

    Maybe. However, load of dubious claims along these lines, which interesting have tended to cite denizens of Appalachia (including West Virginia and western VA but NOT eastern VA) as speaking something very akin to Elizabethan English.

    Take such claims with large grains of salt. Which is NOT to say there's not (perhaps) a wee bit of there there.
    Pinch of salt noted - but my understanding of Appalachia is that it was settled rather later, and by settlers from the lawless borderlands of England/Scotland (sometimes via a generation or two in Northern Ireland). Hence the tradition of the feud in this neck of the woods! And linguistically, a slightly different base to the cocktail.

    ISTR you are from West Virginia? So please treat this as suitably speculative rather than me trying to tell you your own local history!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    Labour leads by 18%.

    Westminster VI (25 June):

    Labour 44% (-2)
    Conservative 26% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 18 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673360483288752135
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    Pregozhin's message
    Original (Telegram) in Russian: https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1304
    BBC flim-flam in English: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6XhCiCzZkA
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455
    Ghedebrav said:

    It's the difference between gobshite and rentagob. I don't seriously think Lineker has plans to make a living off his political outlook. Why would he? He makes proper wedge from football. He's just voicing his views, and ultimately there's nothing new or newsworthy in what he's saying (it was really just a bit of classic late-period Tory shoot-self-in-foot-ism trying to sack him for it).

    CV needs to parlay her public persona into ££ to make a living, and she won't do that by giving considered and reasonable opinions. She's got to say mad stuff to attract the eyeballs/ears/clicks.
    Women! Know your place. Stick to recipes and fluffy kittens.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    edited June 2023
    ...

    Labour leads by 18%.

    Westminster VI (25 June):

    Labour 44% (-2)
    Conservative 26% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 18 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673360483288752135

    Other +2? Oops didn't see that SNP have their own row. Must be PC on the rise in Wales.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    Here's a question about names -- and politics: In the US, it is common for newspapers to spell the name of your (current) second party, "Labor". (I think that's wrong since it's a proper name.)

    How do your newspapers spell the name of the Australian equivalent? Labor, or Labour?

    (As I understand it, the Australian Party was expecting a change in the standard spelling there, to match American practice, when they chose that name. But the rest of the nation didn't go along with them.)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,507
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, on what was the old A1.
    Well, the A5 in fact. The Wikipedia entry is nicely historical in a way that I suspect not many even quite major roads manage:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A5_road_(Great_Britain)?wprov=sfla1
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    On the Alabama and Louisiana redistricting cases: If you are an unscrupulous Republican tactician, you love the idea of concentrating any heavily Democratic group -- black, in those examples -- in a few districts, since that makes it so much easier for you to win majorities in the House, and in state legislatures.

    But it is bad for the states where it is done, and bad for the nation, as a whole.

    Lee Atwater sends greeting from his perch up close to the Devil's Bonfire . . .

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Atwater
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    Labour leads by 18%.

    Westminster VI (25 June):

    Labour 44% (-2)
    Conservative 26% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 18 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673360483288752135

    Broken, sleazy Labour, Reform and Greens on the slide!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,151
    edited June 2023

    Here's a question about names -- and politics: In the US, it is common for newspapers to spell the name of your (current) second party, "Labor". (I think that's wrong since it's a proper name.)

    How do your newspapers spell the name of the Australian equivalent? Labor, or Labour?

    (As I understand it, the Australian Party was expecting a change in the standard spelling there, to match American practice, when they chose that name. But the rest of the nation didn't go along with them.)

    'Labor', I'm pretty sure (and a quick Google seems to confirm). I'd assumed, from such reporting, that the Aus spelling was 'labor'.

    ETA: That's BBC reporting - not sure about newspapers, but I suspect similar. The press here tend to use the proper noun, rather than translate/re-spell.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, on what was the old A1.
    No, old A5. The old A1 was miles to the east.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    ...

    Other +2? Oops didn't see that SNP have their own row. Must be PC on the rise in Wales.
    SNP are stuck on 3% (listed above!)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Here's a question about names -- and politics: In the US, it is common for newspapers to spell the name of your (current) second party, "Labor". (I think that's wrong since it's a proper name.)

    How do your newspapers spell the name of the Australian equivalent? Labor, or Labour?

    (As I understand it, the Australian Party was expecting a change in the standard spelling there, to match American practice, when they chose that name. But the rest of the nation didn't go along with them.)

    Suspect that American media misspelling of "Labour Party" has to do with
    > now ubiquitous (and frequently infamous) nature of spell checking;
    > increasing ignorance of journos, editors, etc., etc. (from what was never a very high standard).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    edited June 2023

    SNP are stuck on 3% (listed above!)
    I thought I'd corrected just in time, but alas no!

    Good, solid 26 for the Tories mind.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    A very quick search makes me think I should have said "was" common for US newspapers to spell the name of the UK party, "Labor". But I do recall the NYT doing it in the past.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429

    No, old A5. The old A1 was miles to the east.
    Some information on here. https://www.sabre-roads.org.uk/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219

    Priogozhin alternative power center to Mad Vlad?

    Perhaps. But he's really more along the lines of another Russian (sorta) sociopath and war criminal:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_von_Ungern-Sternberg
    I think I subscribe to the view that the man is just a loose cannon rather than a master manipulator with designs on the Kremlin. However, the unanswered question is whether he has exposed cracks in the apparatus of the Russian state that will start pulling apart, and whether there may be someone who is in the background supporting all this.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Cookie said:

    Pinch of salt noted - but my understanding of Appalachia is that it was settled rather later, and by settlers from the lawless borderlands of England/Scotland (sometimes via a generation or two in Northern Ireland). Hence the tradition of the feud in this neck of the woods! And linguistically, a slightly different base to the cocktail.

    ISTR you are from West Virginia? So please treat this as suitably speculative rather than me trying to tell you your own local history!
    Zero offense taken! Yes, Appalachian heritage heavily Scots Irish, however with significant German element; for example, typical hillybilly usage "youngin" is pronounced virtually identically to "Jugend".

    All of which rather undermines the old Appalachian English = Elizabethan English theory.

    BTW, in Appalachia, the locals pronounce it "Ap-a-LACH-ah" and NOT "Ap-a-LAY-cha" which is how the rest of USA says it, as in "Appalachian Spring" by Aaron Copland.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    Cookie said:

    Well I agree with all that and I enjoyed the alliteration.
    But surely if you're Carol Vorderman there must be other more dignified ways of making a living?
    She's also appearing in some really, really bad adverts for something at the moment (insurance of some sort?)

    You'd have thought at her age and given her reasonably successful career she'd be in a position now to ease into a comfortable retirement. I wonder if something has gone seriously awry in the world of Vords.
    Does she have any step-children?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    Yes, this betrays the weakness of Putin because Prigozhin isn’t shutting up. He’s not been silenced and he keeps poking the bear.

    If he’s going he’s not going quietly. Still feels like the scene is being set for - something - more, whatever that may be.
    Last weekend was, conceivably, a rehearsal.
    Not by Progozhin, but by whoever is going to succeed Putin.

    But none of us really have a clue. There are a dozen different possibilities, and a dozen more barely credible conspiracy theories.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    News report earlier that multiple camps are being established in Belarus ready for Wagner. One big enough for 8,000 troops.

    Pundits think this means there is a threat from them crossing the border.

    I agree, but while they say the Ukraine border, I'm thinking Russian border.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269
    algarkirk said:
    After the abortion verdict the other week, it feels like something has changed in the sentencing around cases like this. I don't remember any changes to the law, but it feels like there has been some kind of 'pro-life' shift that is much more punative towards desperate mothers.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    Nigelb said:

    Last weekend was, conceivably, a rehearsal.
    Not by Progozhin, but by whoever is going to succeed Putin.

    But none of us really have a clue. There are a dozen different possibilities, and a dozen more barely credible conspiracy theories.
    One big thing which Prigozhin now has in his favour is 12 billion dollars.
  • Decimate is either one of the words in the English language that is most widely misused, or its usage has strayed so far from its original meaning that the latter is no longer relevant. I tend to go with the second statement.
    Acronym

    All the fucking time
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    algarkirk said:
    It really is a tragedy.

    And on the flip side of the coin the Probation Service is going hell for leather to release Colin Pitchfork.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    algarkirk said:
    A premeditated murder should always carry a life sentence. She knew she was doing something badly wrong.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Labour leads by 18%.

    Westminster VI (25 June):

    Labour 44% (-2)
    Conservative 26% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 18 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673360483288752135

    The fightback is go!!! 🥳🤣😀😂
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    Last weekend was, conceivably, a rehearsal.
    Not by Progozhin, but by whoever is going to succeed Putin.

    But none of us really have a clue. There are a dozen different possibilities, and a dozen more barely credible conspiracy theories.
    Perhaps Lord Lebedev might possibly provide some insight?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680
    Sandpit said:

    A premeditated murder should always carry a life sentence. She knew she was doing something badly wrong.
    The law of infanticide exists for these cases, the legal system has understood such cases with compassion for 100 years.

    "The maximum penalty for infanticide is life imprisonment. However, in practice a non-custodial sentence is usually the outcome. This non-custodial sentence will however, often be subject to a treatment or a hospital order."

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    edited June 2023
    Sandpit said:

    A premeditated murder should always carry a life sentence. She knew she was doing something badly wrong.
    Some sort of societal retribution is required, but for a scared 15 year old who was clearly not thinking straight 12 years seems particularly harsh.

    On the other hand we can't wait to return John Warboys and Colin Pitchfork back into society. Who next? Levi Bellfield.

  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 908

    After the abortion verdict the other week, it feels like something has changed in the sentencing around cases like this. I don't remember any changes to the law, but it feels like there has been some kind of 'pro-life' shift that is much more punative towards desperate mothers.
    Sounds like a tragic case. Obviously the crime requires a stiff sentence, I'm not qualified to say how stiff, but some of the remarks from the Judge, who appears to accept this girl acted out of fear and distress, seem a bit cruel.

    That said, I don't think this is a 'pro-life'.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    algarkirk said:
    The obsession with long prison sentences is one of the most depressing features of our culture.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead is twenty-three percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 47% (+1)
    Lib Dem 12% (+2)
    Other 16% (-)
    Fieldwork: 23rd - 26th June 2023
    Sample: 1,089 GB adults
    (Changes from 16th - 19th June 2023)

    There probably will be another Tory leadership challenge if these types of figures are continually repeated. The whole point of Sunak was to get the Tories up to at least 30%-33%.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001

    IIRC, at one point, Nazis maintained that Bard of Avon was a German (not Indian) Aryan, compelled to write in English by oppressive Elizabethan regime.
    They work that idea into the wonderful 1941 reworking of the Scarlett Pimpernel called Pimpernel Smith where he is a British spy in Nazi Germany posing as an archaeologist to rescue people and he has a long running debate throughout with the top Nazi about Shakespeare being German. Well worth watching if you can find it but I believe it has a different title in the US.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    Unpopular said:

    Sounds like a tragic case. Obviously the crime requires a stiff sentence, I'm not qualified to say how stiff, but some of the remarks from the Judge, who appears to accept this girl acted out of fear and distress, seem a bit cruel.

    That said, I don't think this is a 'pro-life'.
    Yes, nothing to do with abortion rights. She abused the baby causing severe brain damage, then when it wouldn't die stuffed its mouth full of cotton wool to choke it to death. Being scared of what your parents might say doesn't seem like a particularly strong defence.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001

    Zero offense taken! Yes, Appalachian heritage heavily Scots Irish, however with significant German element; for example, typical hillybilly usage "youngin" is pronounced virtually identically to "Jugend".

    All of which rather undermines the old Appalachian English = Elizabethan English theory.

    BTW, in Appalachia, the locals pronounce it "Ap-a-LACH-ah" and NOT "Ap-a-LAY-cha" which is how the rest of USA says it, as in "Appalachian Spring" by Aaron Copland.
    I might be wrong but doesn’t the word “hillbilly” itself come from the Scots/Irish Protestant settlers there in reference to King Billy of Protestant god status?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,779
    ..
    Pagan2 said:

    Is Carol Vorderman a lib dem she always came across as sensible
    She's a bit obsessed about how corrupt the Conservatives are. There's a lot of conservative corruption to be obsessed about, of course. Which is why the usual suspects on here are calling her unhinged.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    Less than an hour ago, the Washington Post put up this story:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/26/putin-prigozhin-russia-rebellion-wagner/
    "RIGA, Latvia — Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin resurfaced Monday for the first time since his Saturday mutiny, and declared that his motive was to save the private militia from being subsumed into the Russian military — not to topple President Vladimir Putin.

    Prigozhin, who did not disclose his whereabouts, said he ordered the rebellion after Russia’s military killed 30 Wagner fighters in a missile strike on one of the militia’s camps, and he said he accepted a deal to avoid prosecution and move to Belarus because it would allow Wagner to continue its operations there."

    OK, what's in it for Lukashenko? And is Putin still planning to send him some nukes?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    ...
    RobD said:

    Yes, nothing to do with abortion rights. She abused the baby causing severe brain damage, then when it wouldn't die stuffed its mouth full of cotton wool to choke it to death. Being scared of what your parents might say doesn't seem like a particularly strong defence.
    Without minimising the severity of her actions I suspect you are looking through a male prism. Her hormones would have been all over the place and she was a child, albeit a child that carelessly got herself impregnated.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455
    RobD said:

    Yes, nothing to do with abortion rights. She abused the baby causing severe brain damage, then when it wouldn't die stuffed its mouth full of cotton wool to choke it to death. Being scared of what your parents might say doesn't seem like a particularly strong defence.
    It depends on whether she was in her right mind. Diminished responsibility and infanticide would seem reasonable.

    Though newspaper reporting doesn't always match what was said in court. Perhaps these were considered and appropriately dismissed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    edited June 2023
    ...
    Andy_JS said:

    There probably will be another Tory leadership challenge if these types of figures are continually repeated. The whole point of Sunak was to get the Tories up to at least 30%-33%.
    Hands up which insane masochist fancies the job. Just Braverman, Badenoch, Truss and Patel? Oh dear, Rishi isn't doing too badly after all is he?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    .
    Foxy said:

    It depends on whether she was in her right mind. Diminished responsibility and infanticide would seem reasonable.

    Though newspaper reporting doesn't always match what was said in court. Perhaps these were considered and appropriately dismissed.
    Here's some more detailed reporting.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-66000814

    Infanticide was considered, but the jury decided that her actions were deliberate.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    I'm curious what particular "consequences" would become apparent? Considering you'd have a net total of approximately zero extra cars on the road, net total of approximately zero extra pupils in school etc

    The thing is all the people, all the kids, all the cars etc are already here today. We aren't talking millions of extra people, just having enough homes for the people who are already here anyway.

    Its not as if kids are denied school places, just because their parents can't afford a home of their own. If their parents suddenly can get a home of their own, then the kids can keep going to the same school they're already going to anyway.
    Yeah there is something in this point. But new development is assessed against an existing baseline

    Off the top of my head, if you 'zone' a field to build a few hundred houses, the main issues are
    1. Impact on the strategic road network through junction capacity, etc
    2. Impact on Trunk Roads and other classified roads
    3. Impact on the drains, sewerage systems etc.
    4. Various other issues to do with the capacity of infrastructure due to lack of proactive investment by the government.
    5. Impact on the landscape and character and appearance of the area including any heritage assets.
    6. Impact on the environmental conditions of the site.

    Then you run in to other questions
    1. Is there public transport capacity
    2. How does it relate to its surroundings,
    3. Are there shops, services, schools etc.
    4. Can people walk to a town centre, railway station etc.
    5. Is it a nice place to live, are there parks, trees etc.
    6. Are there employment opportunities nearby.

    Then I suppose you start going in to things like
    1. Is it net zero
    2. Is there a biodiversity net gain.

    (not an exhaustive list).

    You can just ignore all the above and carry on regardless but then you just end up with problems many times worse than that of the article about Sydney's northern suburbs I linked to earlier on.

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,855
    edited June 2023

    Less than an hour ago, the Washington Post put up this story:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/26/putin-prigozhin-russia-rebellion-wagner/
    "RIGA, Latvia — Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin resurfaced Monday for the first time since his Saturday mutiny, and declared that his motive was to save the private militia from being subsumed into the Russian military — not to topple President Vladimir Putin.

    Prigozhin, who did not disclose his whereabouts, said he ordered the rebellion after Russia’s military killed 30 Wagner fighters in a missile strike on one of the militia’s camps, and he said he accepted a deal to avoid prosecution and move to Belarus because it would allow Wagner to continue its operations there."

    OK, what's in it for Lukashenko? And is Putin still planning to send him some nukes?

    How many nukes have Wagner "nicked" whilst on their little spree?

    In my conspiracy it was all staged so they could have some plausible deniability when he fires a couple "accidentally".

    Though you'd have thought they'd have chosen cheaper helicopters to crash.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited June 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    There probably will be another Tory leadership challenge if these types of figures are continually repeated. The whole point of Sunak was to get the Tories up to at least 30%-33%.
    Which would be utterly pointless given the only Tory who could now get the Tories back to 30-33% would be Boris who is no longer an MP and ineligible.

    Sunak wanted to be PM, he got rid of Boris with Hunt and has made his bed and must now lie in it.

    The right and ERG have also decided to wait and let Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election as far as I can see, blame them for defeat, then the right will start to take the party over again in opposition when Starmer's Labour government will have to deal with the economy
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    How many nukes have Wagner "nicked" whilst on their little spree?

    In my conspiracy it was all staged so they could have some plausible deniability when he fires a couple "accidentally".

    Though you'd have thought they'd have chosen cheaper helicopters to crash.

    The loss of that Il-18 reconnaissance plane, says that this wasn’t a planned event. The Russians had only a handful of them, and they’re irreplaceable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    Which would be utterly pointless given the only Tory who could now get the Tories back to 30-33% would be Boris who is no longer an MP and ineligible.

    Sunak wanted to be PM, he got rid of Boris with Hunt and has made his bed and must now lie in it.

    The right and ERG have also decided to wait and let Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election as far as I can see, blame them for defeat, then the right will start to take the party over again in opposition when Starmer's Labour government will have to deal with the economy
    If a Labour win looks inevitable will the current Government salt the earth for a swift return?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Cookie said:

    One big thing which Prigozhin now has in his favour is 12 billion dollars.
    Has he actually got it though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    Labour leads by 18%.

    Westminster VI (25 June):

    Labour 44% (-2)
    Conservative 26% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 18 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673360483288752135

    Starmer leads Sunak 40% to 33% as preferred PM, so Sunak needs to get the 33% who still want him as PM to vote Tory
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    Why not the Lib Dems? Remember that she was the original Tory moderniser before anyone had heard of David Cameron.
    The original Tory moderniser was Michael Portillo who May and Cameron supported in 2001 for leader.

    I was in the hall for May's 'they call us the nasty speech' when IDS was leader having beaten Portillo and Clarke
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,855
    edited June 2023
    Sandpit said:

    The loss of that Il-18 reconnaissance plane, says that this wasn’t a planned event. The Russians had only a handful of them, and they’re irreplaceable.
    Indeed, that was the plot hole. I'll have to work up a better version. Unless that's what "they" want you to think?

    The problem is that every explanation for this event is a conspiracy because clearly it was one, but we just don't know whose.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    ...

    If a Labour win looks inevitable will the current Government salt the earth for a swift return?
    They already have - the problem is the current "mortgage" crisis and the subsequent issues have the Tory Party's name all over it...
  • algarkirk said:

    The law of infanticide exists for these cases, the legal system has understood such cases with compassion for 100 years.

    "The maximum penalty for infanticide is life imprisonment. However, in practice a non-custodial sentence is usually the outcome. This non-custodial sentence will however, often be subject to a treatment or a hospital order."

    The jury were given the option of Infanticide but rejected it and went for murder so they clearly felt that was not sufficient enough.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2023
    eek said:

    They already have - the problem is the current "mortgage" crisis and the subsequent issues have the Tory Party's name all over it...
    Talking about lorryloads of salt, the GRaun feed reports that the HO has just announced that each incomer deported to Rwanda costs £169K. And then done some handwaving to show that that will save £106K, which they can make with further handwaving a suspiciously close £165K. Sounds like the economics dept of the Dept for Transport have been involved.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429

    ...

    If a Labour win looks inevitable will the current Government salt the earth for a swift return?
    They’ve been salting the earth since 2019.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,334

    "I do wonder if history might be a little kinder on Truss than contemporary public/media/Tory opinion."

    Maybe . . . PROVIDED that Clio starts sporting an S&M collar . . .
    NO! In 5 minutes or however long her show lasted she did more damage than anyone else has ever managed (everyone else includes prior leaders of all opposition parties)

    I quite like papal history (just interesting, I'm not a Catholic), and even there it's hard to find parallels in complete uselessness.

    (This opinion is of course based on her actions - she really did rev up the Ferrari and drive straight into a wall. What did she think would happen?)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    I think I subscribe to the view that the man is just a loose cannon rather than a master manipulator with designs on the Kremlin. However, the unanswered question is whether he has exposed cracks in the apparatus of the Russian state that will start pulling apart, and whether there may be someone who is in the background supporting all this.
    The weird thing is that he is still alive

    It suggests to me that Putin has either lost control or there are other powerful players here who choose to keep him alive. And the idea that Luko is one of these seems to be stretching fantasy to the limit.

    My guess, FWIW, is that Putin has been shoved to one side and keeping P alive is just another means of humiliating him; that a group of power brokers in the Kremlin have decided that the Ukraine war is a disaster on an epic scale and that they need to find a way out of it that does not bring the whole house down and that, whilst they haven't quite worked out how to do this yet, P might be a useful tool in bringing about some resolution that keeps the Russian state intact.

    But its only a guess, looking for rationality in a swirl of chaos.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378
    edited June 2023
    ...
    eek said:

    They already have - the problem is the current "mortgage" crisis and the subsequent issues have the Tory Party's name all over it...
    I think as the 2015 GE showed, it's pretty easy for a first term government to blame their problems and unpopular decisions on their predecessors. Combine that with the fact Tories are probably going to venture further down the rabbit hole into Wonderland (NatCon is pretty strong evidence they will), and Starmer probably only has to look halfway competent to get a second term.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    FF43 said:

    ..

    She's a bit obsessed about how corrupt the Conservatives are. There's a lot of conservative corruption to be obsessed about, of course. Which is why the usual suspects on here are calling her unhinged.
    The conservatives are undoubtedly corrupt I don't disagree with her in the least on that. If as claimed she is a lib dem then its why I call her unhinged. They are after all the party calling for a 300 a month handout to mortgagees. If that is not unhinged then I don't know what is
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,182
    edited June 2023
    Amazing ODI WC qualifier between WI and NL today

    Teams tied on 374

    Then NL bowler, and number nine batsman, Logan van Beek BATS the super-over for NL. Hits Holder for three fours and three sixes for thirty in the over

    He then bowls the WI super-over. Goes for eight runs, including first ball for six, and takes two wickets

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/icc-cricket-world-cup-qualifier-2023-1377745/netherlands-vs-west-indies-18th-match-group-a-1377763/full-scorecard
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    Amazing ODI WC qualifier between WI and NL today

    Teams tied on 374

    Then NL bowler, and number nine batsman, Logan van Beek BATS the super-over for NL. Hits Holder for three fours and three sixes for thirty in the over

    He then bowls the WI super-over. Goes for eight runs, including first ball for six, and takes two wickets

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/icc-cricket-world-cup-qualifier-2023-1377745/netherlands-vs-west-indies-18th-match-group-a-1377763/full-scorecard

    Us Logans walk amongst you and you never even notice.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    DavidL said:

    The weird thing is that he is still alive

    It suggests to me that Putin has either lost control or there are other powerful players here who choose to keep him alive. And the idea that Luko is one of these seems to be stretching fantasy to the limit.

    My guess, FWIW, is that Putin has been shoved to one side and keeping P alive is just another means of humiliating him; that a group of power brokers in the Kremlin have decided that the Ukraine war is a disaster on an epic scale and that they need to find a way out of it that does not bring the whole house down and that, whilst they haven't quite worked out how to do this yet, P might be a useful tool in bringing about some resolution that keeps the Russian state intact.

    But its only a guess, looking for rationality in a swirl of chaos.
    An interesting suggestion. We wait and see.

    The 2024 Presidential Election presents an opportunity for a bloodless coup if there really is something afoot. Easy to get out a “Putin really wants to run again but for personal/health reasons he won’t be a candidate” statement in the next couple of months or so.

    With his retirement then “brought forward” as necessary.

    All fantasy/speculation at this stage though.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    boulay said:

    I might be wrong but doesn’t the word “hillbilly” itself come from the Scots/Irish Protestant settlers there in reference to King Billy of Protestant god status?
    Am guessing, no. Instead, simple appeal of alliteration.

    Rather maddeningly "The American Language" by H.L. Mencken mentions "hillbilly" (in "Supplement Two") but only in passing, and does NOT discuss origin/derivation of word itself.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700
    HYUFD said:

    Which would be utterly pointless given the only Tory who could now get the Tories back to 30-33% would be Boris who is no longer an MP and ineligible.

    Sunak wanted to be PM, he got rid of Boris with Hunt and has made his bed and must now lie in it.

    The right and ERG have also decided to wait and let Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election as far as I can see, blame them for defeat, then the right will start to take the party over again in opposition when Starmer's Labour government will have to deal with the economy
    You are still in the world of delusion, thinking your beloved Liar King would somehow improve things! He is the person that has caused this disaster for the Conservative Party. It is what people like me said from the very beginning of his "leadership". His celebrity status was a Faustian pact that fools like you bought into, and astonishingly in spite of all the evidence, still believe in.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited June 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Talking about lorryloads of salt, the GRaun feed reports that the HO has just announced that each incomer deported to Rwanda costs £169K. And then done some handwaving to show that that will save £106K, which they can make with further handwaving a suspiciously close £165K. Sounds like the economics dept of the Dept for Transport have been involved.
    I look at the figures being quoted and employing 10,000 workers at £40,000 each to quickly process the backlog of migrant cases looks like a bargain.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    An interesting suggestion. We wait and see.

    The 2024 Presidential Election presents an opportunity for a bloodless coup if there really is something afoot. Easy to get out a “Putin really wants to run again but for personal/health reasons he won’t be a candidate” statement in the next couple of months or so.

    With his retirement then “brought forward” as necessary.

    All fantasy/speculation at this stage though.
    That seems just too gentle for this bunch of thugs and psychopaths. Its more likely that he will have a "heart attack" having worked himself to death for the good of the nation, etc.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800
    Another U turn by Starmer according to the Times

    Labour ditches £3bn tax on big tech amid fear of US retaliation
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800

    You are still in the world of delusion, thinking your beloved Liar King would somehow improve things! He is the person that has caused this disaster for the Conservative Party. It is what people like me said from the very beginning of his "leadership". His celebrity status was a Faustian pact that fools like you bought into, and astonishingly in spite of all the evidence, still believe in.
    So true
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Another U turn by Starmer according to the Times

    Labour ditches £3bn tax on big tech amid fear of US retaliation

    More likely because when you actually look at the reality - the profits just aren't and never have been in the UK....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800
    eek said:

    More likely because when you actually look at the reality - the profits just aren't and never have been in the UK....
    Then why state it as labour policy ?

    Is non doms and private school vat fees next ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888
    Sandpit said:

    The loss of that Il-18 reconnaissance plane, says that this wasn’t a planned event. The Russians had only a handful of them, and they’re irreplaceable.
    I enjoyed reading about events whilst lounging about in a hot tub for most of the weekend.

    My view: it's powerful people chaotically reacting to events, and not following any strategy.

    1) The Russian MOD was short of resources, and slightly jealous of Wagner's PR and 'advances' in Bakhmut. They therefore hold back resources from Wagner.

    2) Wagner dislikes this, and starts arguing against the MOD, direct with Putin.

    3) The MOD persuade Putin to roll Wagner into the MOD. The MOD 'wins'.

    4) Wagner obviously dislike this, and Prig decides on a last-gasp 'attack' on Russia.

    5) But not enough MOD units go over to his side; perhaps because Prig and Wagner are disliked with the MOD's soldiers. In addition, the Russian government directly threaten his family and friends.

    6) A 'deal' is done, which involved Prig backing down and the dismemberment of much of Wagner (not all).

    7) ... to be seen. But it seems a rather unstable situation. The question is whether Prig sees himself as safe and with the power he obviously craves.

    Sound reasonable?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642

    Am guessing, no. Instead, simple appeal of alliteration.

    Rather maddeningly "The American Language" by H.L. Mencken mentions "hillbilly" (in "Supplement Two") but only in passing, and does NOT discuss origin/derivation of word itself.
    As with many of these things, there is academic disagreement as to whether it is a folk etymology or not, at least according to Wikipedia- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillbilly#Etymology
This discussion has been closed.