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Time to write off a Mid-Beds by-election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Jake Berry intervenes also to support Johnson
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Partly, that's because Sunak is weak.

    Also, he's more than a bit complicit. He was in Downing Street all the time. It's the old Watergate questions- what did he know (my guess, more than he has let on) and when did he know it (ages ago).
    He went out of his way to push for Johnson.
    Whatsapped his way through some dodgy Covid dealings, while burnishing his Insta account for brand Rishi.

    He’s a massive shit, he just looks like less of a one compared to Johnson.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    tlg86 said:

    What, by campaigning to put him in Downing Street? At least Sunak (eventually) resigned.
    Mine was a non partisan post as I do not want to see a Labour government. You may well believe what you wrote in response, but mine was an observation on how the electorate generally may see it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    @RobDotHutton
    Jake Berry: "The former prime minister Boris Johnson cannot be held responsible for what people thought he meant." Perhaps what he really needed was a better public.

    @euanmccolm
    Jake Berry now attacking the public for its interpretation of what Johnson said. Bold.


    The calibre of people supporting BoZo tells its own story...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,308
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, May just confirmed she will vote in favour of the report condemning Boris.

    I am sure the former PM will enjoy every moment of it too!
    If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”
    ― Sun Tzu
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Scott_xP said:

    @euanmccolm
    Tory MP Lia Nici humiliating herself in defence of Johnson to such a degree that it’s bordering on kink.

    Ninny, noddy, Nici.
  • Farooq said:

    Yes, for both practical and moral reasons. Loyalty is minor principle, but entirely subordinate to major principles like not treating people as things.
    Completely agreed with that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Diane Abbott challenges Nici on Johnson’s lifetime track record of dishonesty; Nici’s reply is that she hasn’t been following his career….
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    IanB2 said:

    First speech supporting Johnson from Tory MP Nici (Grimsby) previously a PPS to the clown, interrupted by jeers

    Blames the staff for the parties

    A bad workman is not blamed by his tools.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    Ninny, noddy, Nici.
    I guess Johnson's version of the original version of that is I saw, I conquered, I came
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    edited June 2023
    Now Chris Bryant…. Thanks the Tory members of the committee and Mrs May for her speech

    Lists out Johnson’s lies.
  • IanB2 said:

    Now Chris Bryant….

    Didn't know he was a batsman. I'm still seeing Khawaja and Warner.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Breaking - AP (via Seattle Times) - Search underway for missing submersible that takes people to see Titanic

    A search is underway for a missing submersible that carries people to view the wreckage of the Titanic, according to media reports.

    The U.S. Coast Guard told BBC News that a search was underway Monday off the coast of Newfoundland. OceanGate Expeditions confirmed it owned the missing vessel.

    “We are exploring and mobilising all options to bring the crew back safely,” the company said in a statement to BBC News. “Our entire focus is on the crewmembers in the submersible and their families.”

    The U.S. Coast Guard in Boston did not immediately return messages sent by The Associated Press. However, the Joint Rescue Coordination Centre in Halifax, Nova Scotia, said a Canadian military aircraft and a Canadian Coast Guard vessel are assisting the search effort, which is being led by the U.S. Coast Guard.

    In 2021, OceanGate Expeditions began what it expected to become an annual voyage to chronicle the deterioration of the iconic ocean liner that struck an iceberg and sank in 1912.

    The company said at the time that in addition to archaeologists and marine biologists, the expeditions also would include roughly 40 paid tourists who would take turns operating sonar equipment and performing other tasks in the five-person submersible.

    The initial group of tourists was funding the expedition by spending anywhere from $100,000 to $150,000 apiece.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    IanB2 said:

    Now Chris Bryant….

    A man who nearly exposed his johnson is finally about to fully expose A Johnson.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Aus 57/0.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    Didn't know he was a batsman. I'm still seeing Khawaja and Warner.
    And will continue to do so. Aus by eight wickets from here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    @BethRigby
    Think Sunak going to have an issue with privileges cttee vote if senior Tories like May support the motion as PM dodges. He promised govt of integrity, accountability and professionalism. Opponents will criticise if he avoids the vote. Watch KS call him weak at PMQs on Weds
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    ...
    ydoethur said:

    And will continue to do so. Aus by eight wickets from here.
    Need to slow the scoring and wait for the damp conditions tomorrow.

    But Bazball, so they'll carry on pushing for wickets.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Scott_xP said:

    @BethRigby
    Think Sunak going to have an issue with privileges cttee vote if senior Tories like May support the motion as PM dodges. He promised govt of integrity, accountability and professionalism. Opponents will criticise if he avoids the vote. Watch KS call him weak at PMQs on Weds

    But it was so predictable.
    He should probably just call an election. Time to get rid of him, he’s not up to it.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    Farooq said:

    She says she can't see you tomorrow because The Idiot will be around.
    Curious to know who she's talking about, since my travel plans are cancelled so I'll get to meet him.
    Bugger, that's put the kybosh on my Scotland trip. Hold the Lear jet.
  • Is play until 6:30pm tonight or 7pm?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Lol are there rules about fielding in the batsman's eyeline ?
    Is this the first time this has happened ?!?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    I suppose at least Lia Nici bothered to turn up.

    Brendan Smith-Clarke tweeted earlier he was not going to to turn up for “silly games”, and has gone to the cricket instead.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137

    I suppose at least Lia Nici bothered to turn up.

    Brendan Smith-Clarke tweeted earlier he was not going to to turn up for “silly games”, and has gone to the cricket instead.

    With an Australian tie
  • I suppose at least Lia Nici bothered to turn up.

    Brendan Smith-Clarke tweeted earlier he was not going to to turn up for “silly games”, and has gone to the cricket instead.

    So he's just seen Warner caught behind? Good for him. 👍
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    But it was so predictable.
    He should probably just call an election. Time to get rid of him, he’s not up to it.
    An early election would be a nice idea if we were really going to replace the government with something better. Unfortunately the alternative is Sir Kier Boredom and the loony Labour Public Sector Party ffs!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    Australia no longer squatting like a giant toad over the centre square?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton
    The UK Government's net competency rating is -30%, the lowest rating we've recorded since 23 April (-31%).

    Government Competency Rating (18 June):

    Incompetent: 49% (+5)
    Competent: 19% (-3)
    Net: -30% (-8)

    Changes +/- 11 June
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Wrong. Utterly wrong. The slow steady progress idea with gradual genetic change resulting in speciation was THE idea underpinning evolution for decades. Indeed at the time I was at university that argument was mainstream. The idea it was a straw man argument is simply wrong from start to finish. Eldridge and Gould changed the whole way evolution was considered and understood.
    Not wrong. Any theory of evolution says that you change when external circumstances change, and not otherwise barring a bit of genetic drift. Things stay the same for more of the time than they change. So punctuated equilibrium is exactly what Darwin predicts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    An early election would be a nice idea if we were really going to replace the government with something better. Unfortunately the alternative is Sir Kier Boredom and the loony Labour Public Sector Party ffs!
    Oh do stop it. You posted for years that Starmer was ok. Now you're reverting to tory story propaganda output because you finally have a non risible leader and there's an election coming.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    Deltapoll @DeltapollUK
    now
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead is nineteen percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 27% (-4)
    Lab 46% (+4)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Other 16% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 16th - 19th June 2023
    Sample: 1,554 GB adults
    (Changes from 9th - 12th June 2023)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    kinabalu said:

    Oh do stop it. You posted for years that Starmer was ok. Now you're reverting to tory story propaganda output because you finally have a non risible leader and there's an election coming.
    Speaking for myself: Starmer is ok. I have no problem with saying that.

    But I expect a PM to be better than just 'OK'. Sadly, we don't seem to get them, even if you take into account the impossibilities of the job.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited June 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Oh do stop it. You posted for years that Starmer was ok. Now you're reverting to tory story propaganda output because you finally have a non risible leader and there's an election coming.
    Nigel seems to be part of a cadre of posters who will allow themselves to complain occasionally about the Cons but will also vote for them regardless. Even economic malfeasance and outright corruption is unable to shake their votes.

    See also, BigG, DavidL and CasinoRoyale.

    They all seem to have formed their view of Labour in the 1980s or earlier, with the exception of CR who’s just an young fogey.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    I've missed most of the 'debate' due to parenting.

    Has there been a true tubthumping moment; a speech of pure, angry derision?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    kinabalu said:

    Oh do stop it. You posted for years that Starmer was ok. Now you're reverting to tory story propaganda output because you finally have a non risible leader and there's an election coming.
    Lol. He is boring though isn't he? I mean Sunak is pretty dull, but Starmer is off the scale. If Sunak had been advised by a careers counsellor to be a Chartered Accountant, SKS would have gone one further and gone for the career in Quantity Surveying!

    But you are right. I quite like Starmer. I also quite like my accountant. Both appear to be competent but dull.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    edited June 2023

    I suppose at least Lia Nici bothered to turn up.

    Brendan Smith-Clarke tweeted earlier he was not going to to turn up for “silly games”, and has gone to the cricket instead.

    Another shameless liar from the clown’s stable, then?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    edited June 2023

    I've missed most of the 'debate' due to parenting.

    Has there been a true tubthumping moment; a speech of pure, angry derision?

    Yes

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1670837935665561620

    and

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1670828872898576385
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    I've missed most of the 'debate' due to parenting.

    Has there been a true tubthumping moment; a speech of pure, angry derision?

    Theresa May was excellent, judging by the 30 seconds or so of her on Twitter.
  • I've missed most of the 'debate' due to parenting.

    Has there been a true tubthumping moment; a speech of pure, angry derision?

    Its been pretty calm so far, quite easy going for the Opposition to get what they need to get, but Warner did just nick one to Bairstow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Another shout out for Pippa Crerar. I sat next to her at Johnson’s press launch for his absurd island airport scheme; she’s a very nice lady indeed.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    John Barron just gave a powerful speech in support of the motion to sanction Boris Johnson.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    Scott_xP said:

    Deltapoll @DeltapollUK
    now
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead is nineteen percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 27% (-4)
    Lab 46% (+4)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Other 16% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 16th - 19th June 2023
    Sample: 1,554 GB adults
    (Changes from 9th - 12th June 2023)

    Deltapoll’s irritating tendency to group together “other” makes any LLG vs RefCon comparison difficult without diving into the data. A very FPTP way of presenting party scores.

    Still, even if Green was only 3% they’d still have a pretty good LLG score.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Is it just me or does the polling suggest that the local election Con “slump” has kind of cemented itself.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    Breaking - AP (via Seattle Times) - Search underway for missing submersible that takes people to see Titanic

    A search is underway for a missing submersible that carries people to view the wreckage of the Titanic, according to media reports.

    The U.S. Coast Guard told BBC News that a search was underway Monday off the coast of Newfoundland. OceanGate Expeditions confirmed it owned the missing vessel.

    “We are exploring and mobilising all options to bring the crew back safely,” the company said in a statement to BBC News. “Our entire focus is on the crewmembers in the submersible and their families.”

    The U.S. Coast Guard in Boston did not immediately return messages sent by The Associated Press. However, the Joint Rescue Coordination Centre in Halifax, Nova Scotia, said a Canadian military aircraft and a Canadian Coast Guard vessel are assisting the search effort, which is being led by the U.S. Coast Guard.

    In 2021, OceanGate Expeditions began what it expected to become an annual voyage to chronicle the deterioration of the iconic ocean liner that struck an iceberg and sank in 1912.

    The company said at the time that in addition to archaeologists and marine biologists, the expeditions also would include roughly 40 paid tourists who would take turns operating sonar equipment and performing other tasks in the five-person submersible.

    The initial group of tourists was funding the expedition by spending anywhere from $100,000 to $150,000 apiece.

    This sad story is important. (I say 'sad', as I fear that it's not going to end well).

    There is a growing trend of people doing dangerous things, with the idea - or image - that they are safe. Whether it is going down to the Titanic as a tourist, or going to space, there are dangers that should not be ignored. After the Challenger disaster, NASA was rightly criticised because the risks of spaceflight had not been correctly passed onto astronauts. The same may well be sadly true of these private companies.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131

    I've missed most of the 'debate' due to parenting.

    Has there been a true tubthumping moment; a speech of pure, angry derision?

    Mrs May and Angela Eagle are worth pausing the iPlayer recording to hear. But the standard of parliamentary debate isn’t what it once was. We’re still waiting for a Geoffrey Howe moment, let alone anything to match up to Callaghan versus Thatcher of 1979.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    I suppose at least Lia Nici bothered to turn up.

    Brendan Smith-Clarke tweeted earlier he was not going to to turn up for “silly games”, and has gone to the cricket instead.

    Must have coptered down from Edgbaston, as he’s just been interviewed in the lobby of the HoC on C4 News.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Does that count as a missed chance for Pope ?
    He's a very good fielder but I think Jonty Rhodes might have caught something like that
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited June 2023
    TMay was great!

    That was in response to IanB2, of course.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    edited June 2023
    Official House idiot JRM up next…

    One can only hope that the hole he is digging will bury his own career.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited June 2023
    According to Paul Mason, there is a new conspiracy theory emanating from far-left / Corbynista circles: that Keir Starmer is a “spycop”: some kind of establishment or even CIA plant.

    Stuff like this, as well as the anti-Semitism and the pathetic response to Salisbury is why I disagree with posters who claim that Corbyn was somehow on a par or even a less malign option than Johnson in 2019.

    (Of course, I voted for neither).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    Miklosvar said:

    Not wrong. Any theory of evolution says that you change when external circumstances change, and not otherwise barring a bit of genetic drift. Things stay the same for more of the time than they change. So punctuated equilibrium is exactly what Darwin predicts.
    Ah ha. A bell rings. 🙂
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    Yes

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1670837935665561620

    and

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1670828872898576385
    "I'm from Birmingham, and I say it as I see it."

    WTAF? ;)
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    This sad story is important. (I say 'sad', as I fear that it's not going to end well).

    There is a growing trend of people doing dangerous things, with the idea - or image - that they are safe. Whether it is going down to the Titanic as a tourist, or going to space, there are dangers that should not be ignored. After the Challenger disaster, NASA was rightly criticised because the risks of spaceflight had not been correctly passed onto astronauts. The same may well be sadly true of these private companies.
    I have no sympathy for posts beginning "I have no sympathy...", but the element of rich twattishness here needs to be recognised. Mass grave tourism is not attractive.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Labuschagne goes, same combination as the first innings.
  • ☝️
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682

    "I'm from Birmingham, and I say it as I see it."

    WTAF? ;)
    When it comes to Brummies they say it as they see it but the rest of the country cannot understand a word they say due to their accents.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    According to Paul Mason, there is a new conspiracy theory emanating from far-left / Corbynista circles: that Keir Starmer is a “spycop”: some kind of establishment or even CIA plant.

    Stuff like this, as well as the anti-Semitism and the pathetic response to Salisbury is why I disagree with posters who claim that Corbyn was somehow on a par or even a less malign option than Johnson in 2019.

    (Of course, I voted for neither).

    Rather hilarious flip-side of Harold Wilson as KGB mole theory.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Miklosvar said:

    I have no sympathy for posts beginning "I have no sympathy...", but the element of rich twattishness here needs to be recognised. Mass grave tourism is not attractive.
    Everest was an example I was going to mention; but the risks of that are fairly well acknowledged. And sadly, so many people have died going up Everest that it is now 'mass grave tourism'.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    Nigel seems to be part of a cadre of posters who will allow themselves to complain occasionally about the Cons but will also vote for them regardless. Even economic malfeasance and outright corruption is unable to shake their votes.

    See also, BigG, DavidL and CasinoRoyale.

    They all seem to have formed their view of Labour in the 1980s or earlier, with the exception of CR who’s just an young fogey.
    I know that talking bollox without reference to reality is an increasing specialist subject area for you, but I think @kinabalu and many other slightly less myopic posters on here are well aware that I have not voted blue for the past two GEs, and at none of the locals either, and I was one of the few right of centre posters on here who realised what an idiot Johnson was long before holding that view was fashionable.

    I might well vote Tory at the next one because giving the loonies in the Labour Party unfettered power which an overall majority would give them is not something I particularly like the idea of. I also quite like Sunak (though he has gone down in my estimation today) and do not see podgy Sir Kier as an improvement one iota.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    When it comes to Brummies they say it as they see it but the rest of the country cannot understand a word they say due to their accents.
    I'm not from Birmingham, but no-one ever understands what I say...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    According to Paul Mason, there is a new conspiracy theory emanating from far-left / Corbynista circles: that Keir Starmer is a “spycop”: some kind of establishment or even CIA plant.

    Stuff like this, as well as the anti-Semitism and the pathetic response to Salisbury is why I disagree with posters who claim that Corbyn was somehow on a par or even a less malign option than Johnson in 2019.

    (Of course, I voted for neither).

    Earlier today, I posted links to a video that is apparently going to be shown at Glastonbury, that appears to highlight these conspiracy theories.

    https://labourlist.org/2023/06/the-big-lie-jeremy-corbyn-glastonbury-screening-film-watch-conspiracy-mason/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    I'm not from Birmingham, but no-one ever understands what I say...
    What?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Never mind yesterday's fat oaf, the big news today is that Sunak has declined to offer more help to struggling mortgage payers. I mean, we'll see how long that position lasts as the pained screaming ramps up through the rest of this year and into the next, but for all of us who are desperately willing the vastly overinflated property bubble to burst in spectacular fashion it can't be anything but positive news.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 754

    I'm not from Birmingham, but no-one ever understands what I say...
    What?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    What?
    Correction - "Wohhhhht?"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited June 2023

    Nigel seems to be part of a cadre of posters who will allow themselves to complain occasionally about the Cons but will also vote for them regardless. Even economic malfeasance and outright corruption is unable to shake their votes.

    See also, BigG, DavidL and CasinoRoyale.

    They all seem to have formed their view of Labour in the 1980s or earlier, with the exception of CR who’s just an young fogey.
    I did vote for Blair twice and would have voted lib dem if Johnson had stayed in office

    I am not captured by Starmer like some , as he flip flops regularly

    Abolish tuition fees - not now

    Spend 28 billion pa on green issues - not now

    Stop all new oil and gas licences - not now

    Abolish all union legislation since 2016 - absolutely handing unprecedented power to the trade unions

    Accepts 1.6 million from stop oil but that is OK

    And as far as public sector wage demands are concerned then he will bow to his union masters

    The policy of abolishing of vat on school fees and non dom status is paltry to the sums needed and Starmer has not laid out how he is going to pay for his government either in borrowing or higher taxes, which by the way he has consistently condemned

    None of this means Starmer will not be the next PM but he is not entitled to a free pass


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Moggy is digging himself the most humongous hole, here.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    pigeon said:

    Never mind yesterday's fat oaf, the big news today is that Sunak has declined to offer more help to struggling mortgage payers. I mean, we'll see how long that position lasts as the pained screaming ramps up through the rest of this year and into the next, but for all of us who are desperately willing the vastly overinflated property bubble to burst in spectacular fashion it can't be anything but positive news.

    Great idea. repossessions, misery depression and suicide. What a nice person you must be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Everest was an example I was going to mention; but the risks of that are fairly well acknowledged. And sadly, so many people have died going up Everest that it is now 'mass grave tourism'.
    The Challenger astronauts will have grown up knowing about the Apollo 1 disaster and would definitely have been aware that spaceflight as it was then and is now is risky.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    When it comes to Brummies they say it as they see it but the rest of the country cannot understand a word they say due to their accents.
    The Peaky Blinders would like a word
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    This sad story is important. (I say 'sad', as I fear that it's not going to end well).

    There is a growing trend of people doing dangerous things, with the idea - or image - that they are safe. Whether it is going down to the Titanic as a tourist, or going to space, there are dangers that should not be ignored. After the Challenger disaster, NASA was rightly criticised because the risks of spaceflight had not been correctly passed onto astronauts. The same may well be sadly true of these private companies.
    It depends whether they've been made aware of the dangers beforehand.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131

    I did vote for Blair twice and would have voted lib dem if Johnson had stayed in office

    I am not captured by Starmer like some , as he flip flops regularly

    Abolish tuition fees - not now

    Spend 28 billion pa on green issues - not now

    Stop all new oil and gas licences - not now

    Abolish all union legislation since 2016 - absolutely handing unprecedented power to the trade unions

    Accepts 1.6 million from stop oil but that is OK

    And as far as public sector wage demands are concerned then he will bow to his union masters

    The policy of abolishing of vat on school fees and non dom status is paltry to the sums needed and Starmer has not laid out how he is going to pay for his government either in borrowing or higher taxes, which by the way he has consistently condemned

    None of this means Starmer will not be the next PM but he is not entitled to a free pass


    Agree.

    But no right thinking person could vote to give the Tories another go, after the shambles and shame and corruption of the last few years.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Miklosvar said:

    Not wrong. Any theory of evolution says that you change when external circumstances change, and not otherwise barring a bit of genetic drift. Things stay the same for more of the time than they change. So punctuated equilibrium is exactly what Darwin predicts.
    You clearly weren't around in the late 70s and 80s to see and hear the phyletic gradualists lining up to attack punctuated equilibrium hypothesis. Even Darwin retreated from the catastrophist idea prior to publication.

    Indeed even today gradualism is the main way evolution is taught at degree level with a hat tip to PE.

    Of course I am grateful for the debate as I got 15% of my degree from writing about it.

    You should stop getting all your ideas from Dawkins. He has his own hypothesis to push and the best way to do that in his eyes apparently is to undermine all the others. Something he has spent most of his life doing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    According to Paul Mason, there is a new conspiracy theory emanating from far-left / Corbynista circles: that Keir Starmer is a “spycop”: some kind of establishment or even CIA plant.

    Stuff like this, as well as the anti-Semitism and the pathetic response to Salisbury is why I disagree with posters who claim that Corbyn was somehow on a par or even a less malign option than Johnson in 2019.

    (Of course, I voted for neither).

    Thing is, you have an actual Johnson PM calamity against a mere hypothetical Corbyn PM one. And you have to weight an actual as greater than a hypothetical, all else being equal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Andy_JS said:

    It depends whether they've been made aware of the dangers beforehand.
    You can bet your house their families will say they weren't to get the compo payout 😅
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    pigeon said:

    Never mind yesterday's fat oaf, the big news today is that Sunak has declined to offer more help to struggling mortgage payers. I mean, we'll see how long that position lasts as the pained screaming ramps up through the rest of this year and into the next, but for all of us who are desperately willing the vastly overinflated property bubble to burst in spectacular fashion it can't be anything but positive news.

    Providing 'support' for mortgage payers will simply accelerate inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer

    House prices might fall a little in nominal terms but there won't be a collapse, of course inflation enhances the real impact

    Property should be viewed as a home to live in, not an investment
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    JRM's speech = piss and wind
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Happy Juneteenth! US public holiday celebrating emancipation of slaves in Texas in June 1865 by Union Army, about two months after Lee's surrender to Grant at Appomattox CH.

    And thanks to our British cousins, for putting on this splendid entertainment from Westminster to enliven the day!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030

    Yes

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1670837935665561620

    and

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1670828872898576385
    Wonderful response by Harriet - game, set and match to her
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    kinabalu said:

    Thing is, you have an actual Johnson PM calamity against a mere hypothetical Corbyn PM one. And you have to weight an actual as greater than a hypothetical, all else being equal.
    No. Simply no. Boris' flaws were all too visible before he became PM. He did not change; he changed the party and removed many of the people against him. What makes you think that Corbyn would become a paragon of virtue and sanity if he had become PM? especially when as party leader he tried to change his party into his image.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Andy_JS said:

    It depends whether they've been made aware of the dangers beforehand.
    They won't have been. Guaranteed.

    Another point; don't call them 'explorers'. They are not. They are adventurers. There's a massive difference, albeit with some overlap, between the two.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    Providing 'support' for mortgage payers will simply accelerate inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer

    House prices might fall a little in nominal terms but there won't be a collapse, of course inflation enhances the real impact

    Property should be viewed as a home to live in, not an investment
    I think a peak to trough in nominal terms of around 20%.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    IanB2 said:

    Agree.

    But no right thinking person could vote to give the Tories another go, after the shambles and shame and corruption of the last few years.
    It depends if the alternative is worse and Sunak has 18 months at most to move on from Johnson

    It is an unbelievably high bar and I expect a majority Starmer government but again I am not giving him a free pass
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131

    I'm not from Birmingham, but no-one ever understands what I say...
    Shouting stuff at people as you run past at some unnatural pace isn’t terribly conducive to understanding.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    GIN1138 said:

    JRM's speech = piss and wind

    Fear you praise with faint damn.

    After all piss and wind are both valuable commodities when put to good (or even ill) use. SJRM?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    kinabalu said:

    I think a peak to trough in nominal terms of around 20%.
    Quite possible. I was thinking more like 10% max.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Providing 'support' for mortgage payers will simply accelerate inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer

    House prices might fall a little in nominal terms but there won't be a collapse, of course inflation enhances the real impact

    Property should be viewed as a home to live in, not an investment
    Item 1: tick. Item 3: tick. Item 2: we can but hope, but you're probably right. Any downward correction is liable to be limited by lack of supply - but hopefully a nice bit of extra wage inflation will help to improve affordability.

    I'm frustrated enough being a rapidly ageing bloke stuck in a starter flat; needless to say the barmy property market must be excruciating for those condemned to permarenting from scalper landlords.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited June 2023
    Why the hell didn't England review that? Didn't it carry to Bairstow.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    It depends if the alternative is worse and Sunak has 18 months at most to move on from Johnson

    It is an unbelievably high bar and I expect a majority Starmer government but again I am not giving him a free pass
    What would you 'giving him a free pass' look like btw? How would we spot it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    Quite possible. I was thinking more like 10% max.
    It will probably be difficult to put a precise figure on it because the market will respond differently in different areas and different segments.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    You clearly weren't around in the late 70s and 80s to see and hear the phyletic gradualists lining up to attack punctuated equilibrium hypothesis. Even Darwin retreated from the catastrophist idea prior to publication.

    Indeed even today gradualism is the main way evolution is taught at degree level with a hat tip to PE.

    Of course I am grateful for the debate as I got 15% of my degree from writing about it.

    You should stop getting all your ideas from Dawkins. He has his own hypothesis to push and the best way to do that in his eyes apparently is to undermine all the others. Something he has spent most of his life doing.
    I don't get all my ideas from Dawkins. I cannot imagine how a gradualist theory of evolution would work; there's nothing gradual about moving from one Galapagos island to another. If there is such a theory and Gould demolished it good for him, but it doesn't make him the Messiah

    Same with the spandrel stuff. Look at your face. I can tell you first class evolutionary stories about your eyes and teeth and nose and slightly iffy ones about your beard and eyebrows, but things like your forehead and chin are quite obviously just the way things are to join the evolved bits. What was ever non obvious about that?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    👍👍👍
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Redfield and Wilton 20% Labour lead just out is their biggest for 3 months

    Deltapoll just out have the Labour lead at 19%


    The mean Labour lead of the last 4 four national opinion polls is 19.25%


    Sunak is stronger? Really?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Broooad!!!
  • Andy_JS said:

    Why the hell didn't England review that? Didn't it carry to Bairstow.

    No it bounced just short, but no mistake this time, Smith out now. ☝️
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    Smith back to play with his sandpaper.

    Nightwatchman! That's brave.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030

    Providing 'support' for mortgage payers will simply accelerate inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer

    House prices might fall a little in nominal terms but there won't be a collapse, of course inflation enhances the real impact

    Property should be viewed as a home to live in, not an investment
    A former member of the Bank of England was interviewed on yesterday's Sophie on Sunday and provided one of the most sensible and informative responses to the present crisis and said that covid and Ukraine were the driving factor behind inflation, and in a much smaller way brexit, but that no government could risk bailing out mortgage holders as that would provide an immediate response from the markets in even higher interest rates

    Indeed Starmer refused to endorse bailing out mortgagees in this current climate
This discussion has been closed.