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Biden continues to get stronger in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    tlg86 said:

    The comment about his children is the nasty bit.
    Is it ?
    It could also be sympathetic, since she has children of her own. Hard to tell.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420

    I assumed that was a comment made from experience rather than a barb.
    I'd have thought Jess Phillips of all people might realise that not everyone's experience is the same. I'm taking a wild guess here, but I reckon Raab's kids might go to private school, and even if they are in state school, it might be a bit different to the school that Phillips's kids go to.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,644
    edited May 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    If the civil servant had "sorted" it for her, she'd have attended a speed awareness course. Seeing as they're all done over zoom these days she'd have been in precisely the same position as anyone else doing one. It would have gone down on her record as a course and she wouldn't have potentially been offered another one for 5 years. It's the same position any other 1st time speeder is in.

    I don't think people particularly care about the issue at hand here and are just judging Braverman on whether they like her or not.
    A policy that MPs and ministers found wanting on the truth and ethics front will be required to continue their careers in Rwanda for, say, 15 years might be a vote winner.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    @Steven_Swinford

    Braverman allies are already issuing tacit warnings to PM over referring Braverman for investigation

    One said Sunak risks making a 'mountain out of a molehill' and that they hope Sunak sees that



    Rishi needs to tell Cruella and her "allies" to do one...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756

    I agree there's an issue, but it seems to be mostly ageism, for the reason you say. Objectively, Biden is a very effective President who sometimes misspeaks. Because he's old, people wonder if he's senile, but actually it's a habit he's had for many years, and in the round it really doesn't matter.

    So yes, there may be an electability issue if there's a strong challenger. But there probably shouldn't be. The system, for all its failings, has produced a pretty good President.
    Nick, I cant help but think you were one of those who mocked Reagan for his age.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,955
    Anyone watch Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland last night? Looks set to be as good as it’s predecessor on Iraq.

    A minor point: I yield to no one in my disparagement of David Cameron, but the clip of his apology for Bloody Sunday should serve as a model for a full and gracious atonement.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    @Steven_Swinford

    A senior Tory MP on the right of the party is more blunt:

    'He cannot afford to get rid of her

    'Even though she’s s*** she will machinegun him from the back benches. It will look like he’s sided with the doves'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited May 2023

    Yes but for betting purposes, therein lies a trap. Bookmakers will pay out on whoever wins, not on whoever should have won in a more rational world. It is not enough to say that Senator X or Governor Y would be a better candidate or president; even if we are right (and we probably are) we also need to identify a path to that position.
    Indeed. I think it’s going to start to dawn on both parties, as the actual primary season draws closer, of the need to choose someone younger. Perhaps there will be some polling that says something about age of the candidate. It could end up as a prisoner’s dilemma, with the rewards coming to the party that makes the switch to the younger candidate. Of course, picking a specific candidate is more difficult than looking at a generic one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,481
    DougSeal said:

    You'll be shocked to learn that "done for" is not a legal term of art. However, in this context, most would argue she was "done" by the speed camera and had a choice of punishment. She could have chosen the course but instead chose the points. She could also have chosen to contest the being "done" in a Magistrates Court but sensibly decided against it.
    The magistrates Court might have been a better option. "I plead not guilty and if any of you expect to be sitting at this bench tomorrow, you'd better agree with me" might have worked
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Ghedebrav said:

    Genuinely not sure I understand what you mean? What's the proper word for someone who supported Brexit that is any more/less ludicrous than 'Brexiter'? As opposed to 'Remainer', which it's the counterpart to? Seems pretty innocuous to me.
    Brexiter is a term invented to avoid using the word “brexiteer” as that was seen as making Brexit sound glamorous and dashing - like buccaneer or mountaineer

    Even now the FT will ONLY use the word Brexiter for exactly this reason, even tho the rest of the world uses Brexiteer

    It’s a dead giveaway if anyone uses it (consciously or not)

    I suspect that Brexit will be a cultural fault line in our politics for generations, even when we’ve forgotten all the original issues that caused it. Like the Guelphs and Ghibellines in Renaissance Florence
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068

    The magistrates Court might have been a better option. "I plead not guilty and if any of you expect to be sitting at this bench tomorrow, you'd better agree with me" might have worked

    Instead of abusing her position as a Cabinet Minister she should have abused her position as Home Secretary instead...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Nigelb said:

    Back at you , you tragic Brexiteer arseface.
    Fair
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    Interesting thread.

    https://twitter.com/MattLightCrim/status/1660862035314311168
    Recent events are focusing attention on Russia's Belgorod oblast, a region with a strong connection to Ukraine that I visited for doctoral dissertation research in 2005 and 2006. A few thoughts on Belgorod and another Russian region with links to Ukraine, Krasnodarskii Krai.

    ...Belgorod has an interesting past on the margins between the Muscovite state and historically Ukrainian regions. Its population has a mixed Russian and Ukrainian background. When I visited, I met a few people from rural backgrounds who spoke a Ukrainian dialect.

    ...I don't know how many people there are now; presumably many fewer than in the past. Belgorod was nearly included in modern Ukraine but was ultimately assigned to the Russian Federation, where (at least after the 1920s) Ukrainian was not taught in schools and was stigmatized...

    ...A somewhat similar pattern prevails in Krasnodarskii Krai, with the significant difference that the region's original inhabitants, the Circassian people, were largely massacred and ethnically cleansed during Russian imperial conquest in the 19th century...


    Worth reading the whole thread, as it gives another context to the claims about eastern Ukraine being "essentially Russian" etc.

    The Circassian genocide was something I didn't know about.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_genocide
    The Circassian genocide, or Tsitsekun, was the Russian Empire's systematic mass murder, ethnic cleansing, and expulsion of 80–97% of the Circassian population, around 800,000–1,500,000 people, during and after the Russo-Circassian War (1763–1864)...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    Leon said:

    I suspect that Brexit will be a cultural fault line in our politics for generations, even when we’ve forgotten all the original issues that caused it. Like the Guelphs and Ghibellines in Renaissance Florence

    It is canonical to say history is written by the winners, but with brexit the 'win' is such an epic failure that the 'winners' best hope is to be forgotten
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,955
    Ghedebrav said:

    Genuinely not sure I understand what you mean? What's the proper word for someone who supported Brexit that is any more/less ludicrous than 'Brexiter'? As opposed to 'Remainer', which it's the counterpart to? Seems pretty innocuous to me.
    Crinkly bottomed supporters of Brexit see the term Brexiteer as dashing and edgy, while Brexiter reveals the reality of M&S slacks and mild xenophobia.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,481
    Leon said:

    Brexiter is a term invented to avoid using the word “brexiteer” as that was seen as making Brexit sound glamorous and dashing - like buccaneer or mountaineer

    Even now the FT will ONLY use the word Brexiter for exactly this reason, even tho the rest of the world uses Brexiteer

    It’s a dead giveaway if anyone uses it (consciously or not)

    I suspect that Brexit will be a cultural fault line in our politics for generations, even when we’ve forgotten all the original issues that caused it. Like the Guelphs and Ghibellines in Renaissance Florence
    Beautiful written. Have you thought of a career as a writer?
  • I can't really get excited about the Braverman speeding fiasco. If she'd tried to get out of the fine/points then it'd be a different kettle of fish, but it appears it was a clumsy attempt to avoid taking an awareness course with the great unwashed, rhat turned into a bit of tit for tat point scoring and grassing up. I despise the current government, but this ain't really an issue for me.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    Leon said:

    Brexiter is a term invented to avoid using the word “brexiteer” as that was seen as making Brexit sound glamorous and dashing - like buccaneer or mountaineer

    Even now the FT will ONLY use the word Brexiter for exactly this reason, even tho the rest of the world uses Brexiteer

    It’s a dead giveaway if anyone uses it (consciously or not)

    I suspect that Brexit will be a cultural fault line in our politics for generations, even when we’ve forgotten all the original issues that caused it. Like the Guelphs and Ghibellines in Renaissance Florence
    Oh the irony from someone who uses the term Remoaner.

    Remoaner is a clear insult. To anyone not paranoid Brexiteer or Brexiter is just a different spelling of the same thing. You really do live in a little paranoid world of your own if you think most people have a clue it has some different meaning to other than 3 people in this world.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Nick, I cant help but think you were one of those who mocked Reagan for his age.
    It’s also not true that he’s always been hesitant and rambling in his speech. I listened to a clip of him from about 2002 yesterday. Firm, eloquent, vigorous, lucid. The contrast is striking and melancholy. He is in obvious cognitive decline and it WILL be an issue

    My hunch is that he will stand and win, just about defeating Trump, but he will “retire” soon after for health reasons. So the VP pick really matters
  • eekeek Posts: 29,394
    Nigelb said:

    Is it ?
    It could also be sympathetic, since she has children of her own. Hard to tell.
    The fact people read it as a dig rather than sympathetic I think says more about them then about Jess.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    Nigelb said:

    Is it ?
    It could also be sympathetic, since she has children of her own. Hard to tell.
    Yes I thought the same and nearly posted as such. I pretty much respect @tlg86 judgement on stuff, but wasn't convinced on this one.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 770
    On the Suella Braverman thing the precise wording of those emails will make all the difference. It really shouldn’t be a difficult investigation.

    If she just asked a civil servant to explore whether an option to attend in private was available and concluded that there wasn’t then I think she’s safe. That’s just asking staff to do your research for you.

    If she asked civil servants to try and lean on people to create an exception for her then it seems to be a clear breach of the ministerial code.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leon said:

    Brexiter is a term invented to avoid using the word “brexiteer” as that was seen as making Brexit sound glamorous and dashing - like buccaneer or mountaineer

    Even now the FT will ONLY use the word Brexiter for exactly this reason, even tho the rest of the world uses Brexiteer

    It’s a dead giveaway if anyone uses it (consciously or not)

    I suspect that Brexit will be a cultural fault line in our politics for generations, even when we’ve forgotten all the original issues that caused it. Like the Guelphs and Ghibellines in Renaissance Florence
    That does sound a tiny bit paranoid tbh. I get it though, you've found your angle for debate today and you're sticking to it (albeit with a bit of quisling playing-the-mannery about it).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    kjh said:

    Oh the irony from someone who uses the term Remoaner.

    Remoaner is a clear insult. To anyone not paranoid Brexiteer or Brexiter is just a different spelling of the same thing. You really do live in a little paranoid world of your own if you think most people have a clue it has some different meaning to other than 3 people in this world.
    No, I’m just a lot smarter than you - and more aware of linguistic nuance


    “On 14 June, a short email popped up in the inboxes of all Financial Times editorial staff. It came from the paper’s style guru and announced tersely: ‘The out campaigners should be Brexiters, not Brexiteers.’ As usual for the FT’s style pronouncements, the memo did not lay out the reasoning behind the decision, but it followed a discussion among editors over whether the word ‘Brexiteer’ had connotations of swashbuckling adventure.”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/victory-of-the-swashbucklers/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I agree there's an issue, but it seems to be mostly ageism, for the reason you say. Objectively, Biden is a very effective President who sometimes misspeaks. Because he's old, people wonder if he's senile, but actually it's a habit he's had for many years, and in the round it really doesn't matter.

    So yes, there may be an electability issue if there's a strong challenger. But there probably shouldn't be. The system, for all its failings, has produced a pretty good President.
    It certainly is ageism. The last acceptable prejudice, sadly. Good on Biden, hope he wins.

    He should be an inspiration to those of us like me who dream of retiring at 55.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed. I think it’s going to start to dawn on both parties, as the actual primary season draws closer, of the need to choose someone younger. Perhaps there will be some polling that says something about age of the candidate. It could end up as a prisoner’s dilemma, with the rewards coming to the party that makes the switch to the younger candidate. Of course, picking a specific candidate is more difficult than looking at a generic one.
    Unless Biden shows serious ageing problems over the next year, that's highly unlikely on the part of the Democrats. It's near impossible to successfully challenge a sitting President, if they're doing a reasonable job in office.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    algarkirk said:

    Those who voted either way voted for something most people didn't want. There would have been a clear majority for a reformed EU offering serious two sided derogations to the UK for very good reasons.

    If Remain had won we would be in a political turmoil, but a different one, because the democratic deficit would not have gone away.

    And UKIP would probably be in Government.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Ghedebrav said:

    That does sound a tiny bit paranoid tbh. I get it though, you've found your angle for debate today and you're sticking to it (albeit with a bit of quisling playing-the-mannery about it).
    No, I’m simply right. Yet again
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245

    I think youll find the LEL were thinking more in terms of 1899
    Trying to revive the British Empire, 25 years after the Dominions were granted independence, was always a bit pointless.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leon said:

    No, I’m simply right. Yet again
    Of course you are, lad. Well done.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    eek said:

    The fact people read it as a dig rather than sympathetic I think says more about them then about Jess.
    Indeed the OP by @tlg86 was horribly miscued.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread.

    https://twitter.com/MattLightCrim/status/1660862035314311168
    Recent events are focusing attention on Russia's Belgorod oblast, a region with a strong connection to Ukraine that I visited for doctoral dissertation research in 2005 and 2006. A few thoughts on Belgorod and another Russian region with links to Ukraine, Krasnodarskii Krai.

    ...Belgorod has an interesting past on the margins between the Muscovite state and historically Ukrainian regions. Its population has a mixed Russian and Ukrainian background. When I visited, I met a few people from rural backgrounds who spoke a Ukrainian dialect.

    ...I don't know how many people there are now; presumably many fewer than in the past. Belgorod was nearly included in modern Ukraine but was ultimately assigned to the Russian Federation, where (at least after the 1920s) Ukrainian was not taught in schools and was stigmatized...

    ...A somewhat similar pattern prevails in Krasnodarskii Krai, with the significant difference that the region's original inhabitants, the Circassian people, were largely massacred and ethnically cleansed during Russian imperial conquest in the 19th century...


    Worth reading the whole thread, as it gives another context to the claims about eastern Ukraine being "essentially Russian" etc.

    The Circassian genocide was something I didn't know about.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_genocide
    The Circassian genocide, or Tsitsekun, was the Russian Empire's systematic mass murder, ethnic cleansing, and expulsion of 80–97% of the Circassian population, around 800,000–1,500,000 people, during and after the Russo-Circassian War (1763–1864)...

    Boris Johnson's Turkish ancestor was one of those enslaved Circassians.

    And in the film Lawrence of Arabia didn't Lawrence claim to be a Circassian after being arrested by the Turks ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,099
    The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that it no longer expects Britain's economy will fall into a recession this year, upgrading forecasts that it published last month.

    The IMF said British gross domestic product was set to grow by 0.4% in 2023. In April, it forecast a contraction of 0.3%.


    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/imf-says-uk-no-longer-heading-recession-2023-2023-05-23/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245
    algarkirk said:

    Those who voted either way voted for something most people didn't want. There would have been a clear majority for a reformed EU offering serious two sided derogations to the UK for very good reasons.

    If Remain had won we would be in a political turmoil, but a different one, because the democratic deficit would not have gone away.

    I’ve no regrets at all about voting Leave.

    The fact that we have a crappy government is a separate issue.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    Leon said:

    No, I’m just a lot smarter than you - and more aware of linguistic nuance


    “On 14 June, a short email popped up in the inboxes of all Financial Times editorial staff. It came from the paper’s style guru and announced tersely: ‘The out campaigners should be Brexiters, not Brexiteers.’ As usual for the FT’s style pronouncements, the memo did not lay out the reasoning behind the decision, but it followed a discussion among editors over whether the word ‘Brexiteer’ had connotations of swashbuckling adventure.”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/victory-of-the-swashbucklers/
    And we are back to where we always go when you lose an argument:

    a) I'm smarter than you
    b) You are gay (a weird one)
    c) You are boring

    So so predictable.

    Note you missed the whole point of the post which is the vast majority of people do not know the difference between Brexiter and Brexiteer. Not so smart eh that you can't understand a simple post?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,256

    And UKIP would probably be in Government.
    UKIP was never going to be in government. But it could have taken enough votes from the Tories to have put Labour in government. The Brexit vote was all about defending the Tory party - party before country, as is always the way with them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    kjh said:

    And we are back to where we always go when you lose an argument:

    a) I'm smarter than you
    b) You are gay (a weird one)
    c) You are boring

    So so predictable.

    Note you missed the whole point of the post which is the vast majority of people do not know the difference between Brexiter and Brexiteer. Not so smart eh that you can't understand a simple post?
    But I’m right and you’re wrong and this was a real issue, which you missed because you’re less intelligent

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Ghedebrav said:

    Of course you are, lad. Well done.
    Thanks. It’s all I ask for. A simple acknowledgment
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,644
    edited May 2023

    The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that it no longer expects Britain's economy will fall into a recession this year, upgrading forecasts that it published last month.

    The IMF said British gross domestic product was set to grow by 0.4% in 2023. In April, it forecast a contraction of 0.3%.


    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/imf-says-uk-no-longer-heading-recession-2023-2023-05-23/

    And we only borrowed £25 billion in April.
    About £800 per Income Tax payer.
    In one month.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    Deputy union sues over investigation into Sheriff’s Department gangs, order to show tattoos
    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-22/deputy-union-sues-over-investigation-into-sheriffs-department-gangs-order-to-show-gang-tattoos
    ...late Monday, the Assn. for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs filed suit, arguing that ordering deputies to cooperate with the inspector general’s investigation and show their tattoos was unconstitutional, and would violate the 4th Amendment’s ban on unreasonable searches as well as the 5th Amendment’s protection against self-incrimination and the right to privacy under California’s constitution..

    ...The Sheriff’s Department has long faced allegations about secretive deputy groups running amok in certain stations and jails, controlling command staff and promoting a culture of violence. A Loyola Marymount University report released in 2021 identified 18 such groups that have existed over the last five decades, including the Executioners and the Banditos.

    Members of the former are alleged to sport tattoos of a skull with Nazi imagery and an AK-47, while members of the latter are allegedly known for their matching tattoos of a skeleton outfitted with a sombrero, bandoleer and pistol.

    After years of investigations, studies and lawsuits, on May 12 Huntsman’s office sent letters to 35 deputies suspected of being members of either the Executioners, an alleged deputy gang that operates out of the Compton station, or the Banditos, which operates out of the East L.A. station...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000
    Stereodog said:

    On the Suella Braverman thing the precise wording of those emails will make all the difference. It really shouldn’t be a difficult investigation.

    If she just asked a civil servant to explore whether an option to attend in private was available and concluded that there wasn’t then I think she’s safe. That’s just asking staff to do your research for you.

    If she asked civil servants to try and lean on people to create an exception for her then it seems to be a clear breach of the ministerial code.

    My reading is as follows

    SB: Can you arrange me a private course, going in with the masses is going to be a real embarrassment and half of them will hate me.
    CS: No, Fuck off SB that's not my job. Arrange your own bloody course.
    SB: Sighs, walks off take points.

    A bit embarrassing but not a breach of the code.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,601
    Ghedebrav said:

    That does sound a tiny bit paranoid tbh. I get it though, you've found your angle for debate today and you're sticking to it (albeit with a bit of quisling playing-the-mannery about it).
    Brexiter does sound a bit odd.
    Brexiteer began, I think, slightly pejoratively - with 'Leaver' (cf Remainer) the neutral term.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    edited May 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    My reading is as follows

    SB: Can you arrange me a private course, going in with the masses is going to be a real embarrassment and half of them will hate me.
    CS: No, Fuck off SB that's not my job. Arrange your own bloody course.
    SB: Sighs, walks off take points.

    A bit embarrassing but not a breach of the code.
    If ti were so simple, why did she not say so in the Commons ?
    Instead she repeated, several times in response to direct questions, a carefully crafted non-denial denial.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,955
    Nigelb said:

    Deputy union sues over investigation into Sheriff’s Department gangs, order to show tattoos
    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-22/deputy-union-sues-over-investigation-into-sheriffs-department-gangs-order-to-show-gang-tattoos
    ...late Monday, the Assn. for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs filed suit, arguing that ordering deputies to cooperate with the inspector general’s investigation and show their tattoos was unconstitutional, and would violate the 4th Amendment’s ban on unreasonable searches as well as the 5th Amendment’s protection against self-incrimination and the right to privacy under California’s constitution..

    ...The Sheriff’s Department has long faced allegations about secretive deputy groups running amok in certain stations and jails, controlling command staff and promoting a culture of violence. A Loyola Marymount University report released in 2021 identified 18 such groups that have existed over the last five decades, including the Executioners and the Banditos.

    Members of the former are alleged to sport tattoos of a skull with Nazi imagery and an AK-47, while members of the latter are allegedly known for their matching tattoos of a skeleton outfitted with a sombrero, bandoleer and pistol.

    After years of investigations, studies and lawsuits, on May 12 Huntsman’s office sent letters to 35 deputies suspected of being members of either the Executioners, an alleged deputy gang that operates out of the Compton station, or the Banditos, which operates out of the East L.A. station...

    If they’re fired, there’s always an exciting (if short) career in the Wagner Group waiting for them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Leon said:

    No, I’m just a lot smarter than you - and more aware of linguistic nuance


    “On 14 June, a short email popped up in the inboxes of all Financial Times editorial staff. It came from the paper’s style guru and announced tersely: ‘The out campaigners should be Brexiters, not Brexiteers.’ As usual for the FT’s style pronouncements, the memo did not lay out the reasoning behind the decision, but it followed a discussion among editors over whether the word ‘Brexiteer’ had connotations of swashbuckling adventure.”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/victory-of-the-swashbucklers/
    That’s a really interesting piece about political language.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547
    DougSeal said:

    You'll be shocked to learn that "done for" is not a legal term of art. However, in this context, most would argue she was "done" by the speed camera and had a choice of punishment. She could have chosen the course but instead chose the points. She could also have chosen to contest the being "done" in a Magistrates Court but sensibly decided against it.
    Surely - and I know YAAL - the course is not a punishment (capital P) but an alternative to points, which would be the punishment?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that it no longer expects Britain's economy will fall into a recession this year, upgrading forecasts that it published last month.

    The IMF said British gross domestic product was set to grow by 0.4% in 2023. In April, it forecast a contraction of 0.3%.


    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/imf-says-uk-no-longer-heading-recession-2023-2023-05-23/

    How does anyone take their forecasts seriously, if they can issue such huge month-on-month revisions to current-year estimates?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    Pulpstar said:

    My reading is as follows

    SB: Can you arrange me a private course, going in with the masses is going to be a real embarrassment and half of them will hate me.
    CS: No, Fuck off SB that's not my job. Arrange your own bloody course.
    SB: Sighs, walks off take points.

    A bit embarrassing but not a breach of the code.
    So she took the points rather than go on the course ?

    And why didn't she ask a spad, other lackey or husband to research the issue ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Cookie said:

    Brexiter does sound a bit odd.
    Brexiteer began, I think, slightly pejoratively - with 'Leaver' (cf Remainer) the neutral term.
    That spectator piece (by Remainer BBC journo Ian Katz) is well worth reading on the important etymology of these terms. Remainers were painfully aware that “Remainer” itself was a bad ugly word, making them sound sad, but they could never find an alternative
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547
    Leon said:

    Brexiter is a term invented to avoid using the word “brexiteer” as that was seen as making Brexit sound glamorous and dashing - like buccaneer or mountaineer

    Even now the FT will ONLY use the word Brexiter for exactly this reason, even tho the rest of the world uses Brexiteer

    It’s a dead giveaway if anyone uses it (consciously or not)

    I suspect that Brexit will be a cultural fault line in our politics for generations, even when we’ve forgotten all the original issues that caused it. Like the Guelphs and Ghibellines in Renaissance Florence
    Brexiter is a term which reminds Brexiters of their idiocy and place in the pecking order (low, very low).

    Like w***er. In fact the two are synonymous.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Sandpit said:

    That’s a really interesting piece about political language.
    It is. I know the writer. Intelligent man
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547
    edited May 2023

    Indeed the OP by @tlg86 was horribly miscued.
    Why on earth bring someone's children into the political/twitter domain? They should be wholly out of bounds, unless paraded on the running board of a 1925 Rolls Royce phantom by their parents for some kind of intended political gain.

    I have no idea whether she meant well but I read it as passive/aggressive.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    algarkirk said:

    And we only borrowed £25 billion in April.
    About £800 per Income Tax payer.
    In one month.

    It varies month to month - we're not getting £300bn of borrowing this year.

    But together with the trade deficit it does illustrate how the country continually lives beyond its means and specifically over consumes.

    Yet the media is full of stories of every group demanding another handout, another subsidy, another tax cut and other pay rise.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425
    Sandpit said:

    Just as bad. Politicians everywhere are trying to repeal the laws of maths and physics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/24/signal-app-warns-it-will-quit-uk-if-law-weakens-end-to-end-encryption
    “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,” said Turnbull.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000
    edited May 2023

    So she took the points rather than go on the course ?

    And why didn't she ask a spad, other lackey or husband to research the issue ?
    I have no idea. If Rishi had anything about him he'd ask her that directly rather than farming it off to an "ethics advisor".
    My guess is she sees senior civil servants as a PA of sorts (Which is wrong but not code-breaking). Her SPAD doesn't seem very good - aren't they supposed to advise rather than get their minister further into the shit :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547
    Sean_F said:

    I’ve no regrets at all about voting Leave.

    The fact that we have a crappy government is a separate issue.

    Voting for Brexit was like voting to remove from the cliff edge the sign which said: "DANGER: CLIFF - DO NOT JUMP".
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    Pulpstar said:

    My reading is as follows

    SB: Can you arrange me a private course, going in with the masses is going to be a real embarrassment and half of them will hate me.
    CS: No, Fuck off SB that's not my job. Arrange your own bloody course.
    SB: Sighs, walks off take points.

    A bit embarrassing but not a breach of the code.

    You missed the last bit

    SB: If anyone asks, this never happened...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    TOPPING said:

    Brexiter is a term which reminds Brexiters of their idiocy and place in the pecking order (low, very low).

    Like w***er. In fact the two are synonymous.
    The bitterness of the middle class Londoner at full employment for working class northerners is a delight to see.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,750
    Scott_xP said:

    It is canonical to say history is written by the winners...
    Weirdly it's originally written by the journalists. Then that's the version held by the chattering classes. Then all the books and memoirs come out and things get reappraised a bit. But the books and memoirs are written by the interested so that version is a bit skewed, and are usually reappraised again by researchers a few years later. Then it goes thru the whole historian and PhD theses thing, and then there are more arguments which grumble on. The process is usually measured in decades.

    In milhist terms, things which get appraised and reappraised include the "clean Wehrmacht" (now thought to be a bit of a myth) and the performance of the Sherman tank (now thought to be as good as it could be given the circs)

    So there'll be a settled view on Brexit good or bad in about 30-40 years. Whether it will be the right one is debatable, but that's not how history works. Rather sadly, the person who said "one day all this will be just a pub quiz question" was right. :disappointed:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,635
    Leon said:

    It’s also not true that he’s always been hesitant and rambling in his speech. I listened to a clip of him from about 2002 yesterday. Firm, eloquent, vigorous, lucid. The contrast is striking and melancholy. He is in obvious cognitive decline and it WILL be an issue

    My hunch is that he will stand and win, just about defeating Trump, but he will “retire” soon after for health reasons. So the VP pick really matters
    They said the same about George W Bush, and videos are available contrasting his stumbling speech as President with his far more fluent time as Governor. Bush still got elected twice.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    I don't know how many organisations are at fault here but it really seems amazing that it can happen:

    Living in a newly built block of flats deemed not fit for purpose by surveyors has been a "daily living nightmare," residents have said.

    Leaseholders at 53 Agar Grove in Camden claim they have spent hundreds of thousands of pounds in legal fees fighting insurers and developers.

    One resident, who bought his two-bedroom flat in 2019 for £850,000, said the experience had been "life-ruining".

    A government spokesperson called the situation "deplorable".

    When Daniel Bruce moved into the first home he'd owned, he hoped it would be his sanctuary, a place to build the next stage of his life.

    But the 38-year-old told the BBC the problems he has experienced had "altered the complete trajectory of my life".

    He said there were problems with the foundations, there were cracks in the walls, and the timber frame was rotting.

    Daniel added that bathroom floors had collapsed, there was water damage and that window frames and doors had distorted meaning they were stuck either open or closed.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65668790
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547

    The bitterness of the middle class Londoner at full employment for working class northerners is a delight to see.
    True - I detest those icons of northern working class struggle - Jacob R-M, Bill Cash, and our Nige. Gawd bless them one and all.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505
    TOPPING said:

    Why on earth bring someone's children into the political/twitter domain? They should be wholly out of bounds, unless paraded on the running board of a 1925 Rolls Royce phantom by their parents for some kind of intended political gain.

    I have no idea whether she meant well but I read it as passive/aggressive.
    It sounds almost like Jess Phillips has had some sort of dealings with the wider Raab family, otherwise mentioning the kids does feel a little bit off whatever the intention.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    But I’m right and you’re wrong and this was a real issue, which you missed because you’re less intelligent

    Still missed the whole point of the post I made in the first place (try reading it again to see if you are actually as intelligent as you think). Clearly not more intelligent if you still can't see it, but I'm stopping here because I'm not a 5 year old and I'm not getting into a: 'I'm right, your wrong' debate. You think that is an intelligent response?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Nigelb said:

    Unless Biden shows serious ageing problems over the next year, that's highly unlikely on the part of the Democrats. It's near impossible to successfully challenge a sitting President, if they're doing a reasonable job in office.
    I think he’s done well, legislatively, in the past couple of years, getting a bunch of bills through while he still controlled both Houses last year - but looking at him now, even compared to 2018 and 2019, he’s clearly getting a lot older.

    The 2020 campaign, being during the pandemic, didn’t have the travel schedule of a usual campaign, and there has to be a question as to whether he’s up for that in ‘24, when whoever is opposing him will turn up regularly in every swing state.

    There’s also a question about Kamala, who has even worse ratings, and the opprtunity to replace her has gone.

    The party’s decision not to allow primary debates is likely to be challlenged by someone.

    On the Rebublican side, they need to quickly work out who is the challenger to Trump, and whittle the field down as quickly as possible. This is where the betting value might lie. Someone mentioned Tim Scott upthread, who could come from nowhere as Obama did in 2008. You’ll probably need a few good value losers to pick the right person though!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Pulpstar said:

    I have no idea. If Rishi had anything about him he'd ask her that directly rather than farming it off to an "ethics advisor".
    My guess is she sees senior civil servants as a PA of sorts (Which is wrong but not code-breaking). Her SPAD doesn't seem very good - aren't they supposed to advise rather than get their minister further into the shit :D
    I think the current tranche of Spads reflects the general low wattage of their overlords, given that we're near the bottom of the Conservative's intellectual barrel. A lot of constituency bag carriers promoted way above their wit and ability.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245
    TOPPING said:

    Voting for Brexit was like voting to remove from the cliff edge the sign which said: "DANGER: CLIFF - DO NOT JUMP".
    My reasons for voting Leave were (a) we were a bad fit for the EU and (b) within the EU, political power was constantly being transferred upward from national legislatures, to supranational bodies.

    Power was never transferred back down.

    But, I accept that what I disliked about the EU was what others most liked about it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425
    Nigelb said:

    Deputy union sues over investigation into Sheriff’s Department gangs, order to show tattoos
    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-22/deputy-union-sues-over-investigation-into-sheriffs-department-gangs-order-to-show-gang-tattoos
    ...late Monday, the Assn. for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs filed suit, arguing that ordering deputies to cooperate with the inspector general’s investigation and show their tattoos was unconstitutional, and would violate the 4th Amendment’s ban on unreasonable searches as well as the 5th Amendment’s protection against self-incrimination and the right to privacy under California’s constitution..

    ...The Sheriff’s Department has long faced allegations about secretive deputy groups running amok in certain stations and jails, controlling command staff and promoting a culture of violence. A Loyola Marymount University report released in 2021 identified 18 such groups that have existed over the last five decades, including the Executioners and the Banditos.

    Members of the former are alleged to sport tattoos of a skull with Nazi imagery and an AK-47, while members of the latter are allegedly known for their matching tattoos of a skeleton outfitted with a sombrero, bandoleer and pistol.

    After years of investigations, studies and lawsuits, on May 12 Huntsman’s office sent letters to 35 deputies suspected of being members of either the Executioners, an alleged deputy gang that operates out of the Compton station, or the Banditos, which operates out of the East L.A. station...

    Not surprised they are trying to block this.

    Once the gangs within the LA Sheriff’s Dept get prosecuted (finally), membership will be a rather toxic thing.

    Bet there are a fuck ton of policemen queuing for tattoo removal, right now.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,635
    TOPPING said:

    Why on earth bring someone's children into the political/twitter domain? They should be wholly out of bounds, unless paraded on the running board of a 1925 Rolls Royce phantom by their parents for some kind of intended political gain.

    I have no idea whether she meant well but I read it as passive/aggressive.
    I read it as the blue team trying to divert attention from Suella Braverman.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756

    The bitterness of the middle class Londoner at full employment for working class northerners is a delight to see.
    If the press is be believed theyre screwing up London as a financial centre becuase theyre all too busy introducing rules and non jobs rather than doing any actual work. At this rate theyll be overtaken by Stoke,
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TOPPING said:

    Voting for Brexit was like voting to remove from the cliff edge the sign which said: "DANGER: CLIFF - DO NOT JUMP".
    Quite right too; who does these so-called 'experts' in the Blob think they are, telling us what we can and can't jump off of?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425

    I don't know how many organisations are at fault here but it really seems amazing that it can happen:

    Living in a newly built block of flats deemed not fit for purpose by surveyors has been a "daily living nightmare," residents have said.

    Leaseholders at 53 Agar Grove in Camden claim they have spent hundreds of thousands of pounds in legal fees fighting insurers and developers.

    One resident, who bought his two-bedroom flat in 2019 for £850,000, said the experience had been "life-ruining".

    A government spokesperson called the situation "deplorable".

    When Daniel Bruce moved into the first home he'd owned, he hoped it would be his sanctuary, a place to build the next stage of his life.

    But the 38-year-old told the BBC the problems he has experienced had "altered the complete trajectory of my life".

    He said there were problems with the foundations, there were cracks in the walls, and the timber frame was rotting.

    Daniel added that bathroom floors had collapsed, there was water damage and that window frames and doors had distorted meaning they were stuck either open or closed.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65668790

    The window frames and doors thing suggests the whole building is fucked.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    Sean_F said:

    My reasons for voting Leave were (a) we were a bad fit for the EU and (b) within the EU, political power was constantly being transferred upward from national legislatures, to supranational bodies.

    Power was never transferred back down.

    But, I accept that what I disliked about the EU was what others most liked about it.
    Nice to get a sensible post from a Leaver rather than the drivel from Leon.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547
    Sean_F said:

    My reasons for voting Leave were (a) we were a bad fit for the EU and (b) within the EU, political power was constantly being transferred upward from national legislatures, to supranational bodies.

    Power was never transferred back down.

    But, I accept that what I disliked about the EU was what others most liked about it.
    Fair enough. We're certainly not going to reprise the various pros and cons of the EU.

    My point was that it turns out we made a meaningless change. We said don't you dare tell us we can't jump off the cliff whereas of course we are not going to jump off the cliff, most of us.

    Don't you dare tell us that we must accept immigrants, whereas as was on the news this morning we have just accepted more immigrants (net migration) than ever before.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    The window frames and doors thing suggests the whole building is fucked.
    Surely the banks involved, should sue the arses off the council and anyone professionally insured, who was involved in approving the construction?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    viewcode said:

    So there'll be a settled view on Brexit good or bad in about 30-40 years. Whether it will be the right one is debatable

    Except not really.

    Before the vote, lot's of people said it be a bad thing, and bad things would happen.

    Since the vote, bad things have happened.

    The number of people who agree it's been a bad thing has monotonically risen since the event.

    There is no Universe in which it turns out not have been a bad thing.

    Yet still the cultists cling on...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    If the press is be believed theyre screwing up London as a financial centre becuase theyre all too busy introducing rules and non jobs rather than doing any actual work. At this rate theyll be overtaken by Stoke,
    On the other hand, it will take a lot for London to get as bad as San Francisco.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/news/san-francisco-crime-surge-sees-tech-chiefs-move-to-london/
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Not surprised they are trying to block this.

    Once the gangs within the LA Sheriff’s Dept get prosecuted (finally), membership will be a rather toxic thing.

    Bet there are a fuck ton of policemen queuing for tattoo removal, right now.
    I'm reading LA Confidential at the moment, and this story doesn't half resonate.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    TOPPING said:

    True - I detest those icons of northern working class struggle - Jacob R-M, Bill Cash, and our Nige. Gawd bless them one and all.
    Clem Attlee was a posho and Simon de Montfort was a Frenchman.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,177

    You think a politically-biased civil servant is risking his career to try and weaken a government that all the polls say will soon be swept away in any case? Sounds more like a desperate smear. Cui bono?
    I didn't say any of that. Was the "In wholly unrelated Cabinet Office news" the particularly smeary bit of my post?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547
    edited May 2023

    Clem Attlee was a posho and Simon de Montfort was a Frenchman.
    The narrative that Brexit was the brainchild of the northern working classes is a persistent one. I never particularly saw Alan Sked or James Goldsmith or the rest of the poshos as having the good people of Hartlepool in mind with their endeavours.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245
    Scott_xP said:

    Except not really.

    Before the vote, lot's of people said it be a bad thing, and bad things would happen.

    Since the vote, bad things have happened.

    The number of people who agree it's been a bad thing has monotonically risen since the event.

    There is no Universe in which it turns out not have been a bad thing.

    Yet still the cultists cling on...
    Brexit wounded your own pride, but not everyone would see that as a bad thing.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    The teens who did their A levels in 2020 will be leaving university next month.

    Anyone know how they compare their covid affected university experience compared to other year groups ?

    I wonder if the media will give an update on how those who publicly demanded they be given the grades they needed to do the course they wanted got on.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Sandpit said:

    On the other hand, it will take a lot for London to get as bad as San Francisco.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/news/san-francisco-crime-surge-sees-tech-chiefs-move-to-london/
    London needs to get ready for crime wave judging by the way San Francisco tech CEOs have been variously refusing to pay rent, dealing drugs and murdering each other.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that it no longer expects Britain's economy will fall into a recession this year, upgrading forecasts that it published last month.

    The IMF said British gross domestic product was set to grow by 0.4% in 2023. In April, it forecast a contraction of 0.3%.


    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/imf-says-uk-no-longer-heading-recession-2023-2023-05-23/

    Yet another failed forecast
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,099
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    TOPPING said:

    The narrative that Brexit was the brainchild of the northern working classes is a persistent one. I never particularly saw Alan Sked or James Goldsmith or the rest of the poshos as having the good people of Hartlepool in mind with their endeavours.
    So much like Juncker and Mandelson then ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756

    Yet another failed forecast
    Cant have, theyre "experts"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,955
    TOPPING said:

    The narrative that Brexit was the brainchild of the northern working classes is a persistent one. I never particularly saw Alan Sked or James Goldsmith or the rest of the poshos as having the good people of Hartlepool in mind with their endeavours.
    C'mon, Dominic Cummings spent time on a northern estate.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    TOPPING said:

    The narrative that Brexit was the brainchild of the northern working classes is a persistent one. I never particularly saw Alan Sked or James Goldsmith or the rest of the poshos as having the good people of Hartlepool in mind with their endeavours.
    So what ?

    Although James Goldsmith was opposed to globalisation:

    After the French referendum on the European Union, Sir James turned his focus to GATT, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which had still not been agreed.

    He passionately believed global free trade would lead to the destruction of jobs and society in the developed world, and to impoverishment, pollution and social upheaval in the developing world.


    http://www.sirjamesgoldsmith.com/thinker/politics-economics/free-trade/
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,504
    Scott_xP said:

    You missed the last bit

    SB: If anyone asks, this never happened...
    Getting the CS to do private business of the minister is a breach of the code.

    Braverman's issue isn't that she's not a Massive Bad - she hasn't. The politics? Much worse. SueEllen is doing the opposite of delivering on her core policy - she's making things much worse. She's on manoeuvrers for the leadership smelling blood in the water. And she was previously sacked for breaching the code by not caring about security, And lying about it. She breached the code. And lied again.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547

    Getting the CS to do private business of the minister is a breach of the code.

    Braverman's issue isn't that she's not a Massive Bad - she hasn't. The politics? Much worse. SueEllen is doing the opposite of delivering on her core policy - she's making things much worse. She's on manoeuvrers for the leadership smelling blood in the water. And she was previously sacked for breaching the code by not caring about security, And lying about it. She breached the code. And lied again.
    When the HS goes out to dinner she has a protection squad with her.

    It is entirely reasonable for her to question which parts of her job are "private" and which "public". Which it appears she did here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,” said Turnbull.
    It’s the 21st century version of the Indiana legislature that tried to redefine pi, or the 1990s US export controls on what’s now considered broken encryption.

    Wait until the Chinese get hold of a quantum computer.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266

    So much like Juncker and Mandelson then ?
    Just think how much Mandelson would prefer Hartlepool now.

    He'd even be able to buy guacamole.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547

    So what ?

    Although James Goldsmith was opposed to globalisation:

    After the French referendum on the European Union, Sir James turned his focus to GATT, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which had still not been agreed.

    He passionately believed global free trade would lead to the destruction of jobs and society in the developed world, and to impoverishment, pollution and social upheaval in the developing world.


    http://www.sirjamesgoldsmith.com/thinker/politics-economics/free-trade/
    You can't move in The Ward Jackson in Hartlepool without bumping into someone who has turned their focus to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,601
    Scott_xP said:

    Except not really.

    Before the vote, lot's of people said it be a bad thing, and bad things would happen.

    Since the vote, bad things have happened.

    The number of people who agree it's been a bad thing has monotonically risen since the event.

    There is no Universe in which it turns out not have been a bad thing.

    Yet still the cultists cling on...
    Yes, two bad things have happened since Brexit: covid and Ukraine.
    Occasionally some on the fringes attempt to blame these things on Brexit. But these people are maniacs.

    I tend to disregard those who see no universes in which Brexit is a good thing, because they are clearly not thinking through all the possible futures. There is a highly plausible future, for example, in which the Euro goes to shit and the less attached we are to the EU the better. I think that future is quite likely.
    Now you might think, like kinabalu, that future probably won't happen. That would be fair enough. But to say there is no future in which Brexit was the right move is insane.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425
    Sandpit said:

    It’s the 21st century version of the Indiana legislature that tried to redefine pi, or the 1990s US export controls on what’s now considered broken encryption.

    Wait until the Chinese get hold of a quantum computer.
    I have a t shirt that has unlimited length RSA in a Perl script on it. Because the T-shirt has a bar code version of the code on it as well, it is machine readable. Which meant under the 1990s law it was a munition.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Cairo has some really impressive new museums




    It’s also really weird to be in a country where everyone (apparently) likes their prime minister. Sisi. I guess there is a selection bias in who I am meeting (richer, English speaking) nonetheless they ALL approve of him and seem sincere. They say he has brought stability and is bringing prosperity
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,767
    Sandpit said:

    On the other hand, it will take a lot for London to get as bad as San Francisco.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/news/san-francisco-crime-surge-sees-tech-chiefs-move-to-london/
    The difference between the San Francisco I visited in the 1990s and the one I visited in 2019 was one of the most shocking things I've ever seen in the developed world. (And I've lived in Baltimore for a benchmark!)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    Cookie said:

    Yes, two bad things have happened since Brexit: covid and Ukraine.
    Occasionally some on the fringes attempt to blame these things on Brexit. But these people are maniacs.

    I tend to disregard those who see no universes in which Brexit is a good thing, because they are clearly not thinking through all the possible futures. There is a highly plausible future, for example, in which the Euro goes to shit and the less attached we are to the EU the better. I think that future is quite likely.
    Now you might think, like kinabalu, that future probably won't happen. That would be fair enough. But to say there is no future in which Brexit was the right move is insane.
    Excellent post. I am an avid remainer, but I would really like to be proved wrong and I accept I could be. Even though I feel strongly it is unlikely I would really like it to be so.
This discussion has been closed.