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Biden continues to get stronger in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,735
edited May 2023 in General
imageBiden continues to get stronger in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen in the Smarkets chart Biden has continued to rise in the WH2024 betting and the main limitation he faces is in relation to his own health. When the primaries start in early January he will be 81 and that is surely going to become an issue.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.
  • Options
    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 599
    almost first...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Hard to disagree with that.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,052
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Waters, aye. That said, the media is worse. And if you compare today's politicians to Roman emperors they can look pathetic (compared to Trajan or Aurelian) or really rather good (compared to Honorius). The world's always had times of good and bad leadership.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,586

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    To be fair, Sorkin and Gove have certain things in common
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    My two sentences were unconnected. You merely inferred a link 😂

    Edit: Post hoc ergo propter hoc even…
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,586
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    To be fair, Sorkin and Gove have certain things in common
    Gove has the unusual gift of being able to think in completed sentences and sound coherent even when his ideas are less than perfect. His influence on the current government seems somewhat less than optimal. If that were not so they might have a clearer idea of what they are wanting to achieve.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    Bingo Bob for President!
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    Bingo Bob for President!
    Would he be worse than the likely alternatives?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    Sorkin was also writing about a world where the West was supreme and America was the unquestioned global hegemon. So every problem could be “solved” in Washington

    A multipolar world where the USA is merely primus inter pares (and showing signs of absolute decline - eg life expectancy) is so much messier. Dramatically and politically

    Part of our hankering for the world of the West Wing is simply nostalgia for departed greatness
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    To be fair, Sorkin and Gove have certain things in common
    Is Sorkin an absolute arsehole
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    edited May 2023
    An article about AI and how it won’t take every job

    Unfortunately it is written in such a sterile way it reads like it was composed by really bad AI. A decent chatbot would do a better job

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/22/ai-jobs-policies

    I mean, this paragraph


    “We need to bear in mind that while automation and robotics can bring novelty and efficiency to certain industries, the overall impact on jobs can be complex and multifaceted, with problems including maintenance costs, recruitment challenges and the need to adapt to changing economic situations.”

    Christ almighty. Someone switch it off and on
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    Sorkin was also writing about a world where the West was supreme and America was the unquestioned global hegemon. So every problem could be “solved” in Washington

    A multipolar world where the USA is merely primus inter pares (and showing signs of absolute decline - eg life expectancy) is so much messier. Dramatically and politically

    Part of our hankering for the world of the West Wing is simply nostalgia for departed greatness
    It occurs to me that the political environment has been dismal, for most of my lifetime.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153
    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    Sorkin was also writing about a world where the West was supreme and America was the unquestioned global hegemon. So every problem could be “solved” in Washington

    A multipolar world where the USA is merely primus inter pares (and showing signs of absolute decline - eg life expectancy) is so much messier. Dramatically and politically

    Part of our hankering for the world of the West Wing is simply nostalgia for departed greatness
    It occurs to me that the political environment has been dismal, for most of my lifetime.
    That’s a bit severe. There have been moments of genuine optimism when the world obviously got better

    The fall of communism happened with almost zero violence (at the time). A wonderful thing

    China’s rise to prosperity seemed completely benevolent - and great for billions of people - until about 2010

    As for politicians, domestically Thatcher was good and early Blair was full of hope

    Reagan was fairly good, Clinton was fairly good and Obama promised a lot (but did not deliver)

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,753
    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    It's pretty small beer either way. Of all the reasons for sacking Suella Braverman, speed awareness course gate is by far the least likely to concern the public, even while possibly being the one that sees her off.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.



  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.



    This “scandal” is so trivial it is embarrassing
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    ….
    Leon said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.



    This “scandal” is so trivial it is embarrassing
    Although reading the article @Chris linked I realise that JRM made the same argument I did.

    Ewwwh
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    Sorkin was also writing about a world where the West was supreme and America was the unquestioned global hegemon. So every problem could be “solved” in Washington

    A multipolar world where the USA is merely primus inter pares (and showing signs of absolute decline - eg life expectancy) is so much messier. Dramatically and politically

    Part of our hankering for the world of the West Wing is simply nostalgia for departed greatness
    It occurs to me that the political environment has been dismal, for most of my lifetime.
    That’s a bit severe. There have been moments of genuine optimism when the world obviously got better

    The fall of communism happened with almost zero violence (at the time). A wonderful thing

    China’s rise to prosperity seemed completely benevolent - and great for billions of people - until about 2010

    As for politicians, domestically Thatcher was good and early Blair was full of hope

    Reagan was fairly good, Clinton was fairly good and Obama promised a lot (but did not deliver)

    Yes, it’s easy to get depressed, especially as one approaches old age.

    It’s been the best of times for people in a lot of poor countries too, as rates of absolute poverty have declined.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    Hugo Rifkind in The Times is right

    Sorry, Rishi, you’re to blame for Braverman

    Prime minister vowed to restore seriousness and stability but retaining the home secretary fatally undermines that


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sorry-rishi-youre-to-blame-for-braverman-qd8w6tn9h

    The problem is not whether this event warrants dismissal, it's that Cruella continues to be a festering sore in Rishi's cabinet. The question is not whether she will fuck up again, but when and how bad?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,788
    ***PRIVATE POLLING KLAXON***

    The news [about Margaret Ferrier] broke as SNP MPs were at an “away day” in Broadway House, a few minutes’ walk from the Houses of Parliament, to discuss the party’s approach to the general election and share private polling data.

    It is understood that the research largely mirrors public polling and shows that Glasgow, Lanarkshire, the Western Isles, Midlothian and East Lothian are all within Labour’s grasp.

    Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, will hold one-to-one meetings with his MP group this week, at which he will discuss personalised campaign plans that have been drawn up with a seconded member of staff from party headquarters.

    There is disquiet among the group, who do not believe there is enough of a coherent vision to sustain an election campaign. One MP queried the lack of public clarity over the SNP’s offer to the electorate, which they contrasted with the targeted push by Labour. Another source at Westminster was more blunt: “There is no strategy as yet.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/margaret-ferrier-mp-who-travelled-by-train-with-covid-loses-ban-appeal-8kr5z6hm2

    and

    SNP at risk of election wipeout in party’s Bermuda Triangle

    Labour’s revival could turn Lanarkshire and Glasgow into a political graveyard for Nationalists


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-at-risk-of-election-wipeout-in-partys-bermuda-triangle-fzllhdw33

    Top marks for the comparison between Glasgow and Bermuda, don't think that comparison has ever been made before.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?
    Given the amount of discussion there's already been about precisely that point, I'll treat that as a rhetorical question.

    But I think these two facts tell us something: (1) people briefing for Braverman off the record have clearly been insistent that she only asked for advice rather than instructing a civil servant to set up the course and (2) Braverman answering questions on the record has repeatedly refused to deny that she instructed them to set up the course.

  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736
    edited May 2023

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.



    If you don't think she did wrong why when asked 4 times in the commons yesterday whether she asked a civil servant a question about this did she repeat the same reply 4 times saying she was speeding and paid the fine and took the points (word for word each time) and refused to answer the actual question each time

    And on a general note why does the speaker allow MPs to do this. They all do it from all parties, although this was the worst case I have ever heard (others evade with more skill). She even tried to get Jenrick to take one of the questions which he correctly refused to do.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Braverman is handling her speeding story badly. By so obviously not answering basic questions she gives the story legs. If she falls it will be entirely self inflicted.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    Sorkin was also writing about a world where the West was supreme and America was the unquestioned global hegemon. So every problem could be “solved” in Washington

    A multipolar world where the USA is merely primus inter pares (and showing signs of absolute decline - eg life expectancy) is so much messier. Dramatically and politically

    Part of our hankering for the world of the West Wing is simply nostalgia for departed greatness
    It occurs to me that the political environment has been dismal, for most of my lifetime.
    That’s a bit severe. There have been moments of genuine optimism when the world obviously got better

    The fall of communism happened with almost zero violence (at the time). A wonderful thing

    China’s rise to prosperity seemed completely benevolent - and great for billions of people - until about 2010

    As for politicians, domestically Thatcher was good and early Blair was full of hope

    Reagan was fairly good, Clinton was fairly good and Obama promised a lot (but did not deliver)

    Yes, it’s easy to get depressed, especially as one approaches old age.

    It’s been the best of times for people in a lot of poor countries too, as rates of absolute poverty have declined.
    The last 30 years have been amazing for most people - just not so good in the rich West

    However - to somewhat contradict myself - I do believe we now face challenges on a scale humans have never met before. Namely: Climate change, the environment and AI. Of course the last might solve the first two. Or kill everyone
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,788
    This is why I think Braverman is toast, there's an email trail.

    Officials raised concerns about Suella Braverman’s conduct over a speeding fine in emails sent to the Cabinet Office, it has emerged, as questions are asked about her future.

    Rishi Sunak is considering the emails as he weighs up an independent investigation into claims that the home secretary breached the ministerial code.

    Braverman is said to have asked civil servants in September last year to help her to avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence by arranging a private driving awareness course. Officials were so concerned about the request that they emailed the propriety and ethics team in the Cabinet Office to ask whether it was appropriate. They were instructed to disregard the request.

    The emails are at odds with claims from Braverman’s allies, who say she asked civil servants only for advice. The Times has been told that the officials are explicit that Braverman asked them to arrange the course, potentially breaching both the civil service code of conduct and the ministerial code.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-latest-news-starmer-sunak-ministerial-code-speeding-2023-mjnjmwdct
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @omid9

    The real issue here is the PM has to ask an “ethics advisor” if what his minister has done is unethical. He can't work it out for himself. It's like ethics is a complete mystery to him. The main question being: can we get away with this?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    The scriptwriters just aren't on their side.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,788
    Scott_xP said:

    @omid9

    The real issue here is the PM has to ask an “ethics advisor” if what his minister has done is unethical. He can't work it out for himself. It's like ethics is a complete mystery to him. The main question being: can we get away with this?

    To Rishi, ethics is a county in Southern England.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    The scriptwriters just aren't on their side.
    The Thick of It is more true to life
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    To be fair, Sorkin and Gove have certain things in common
    Gove has the unusual gift of being able to think in completed sentences and sound coherent even when his ideas are less than perfect. His influence on the current government seems somewhat less than optimal. If that were not so they might have a clearer idea of what they are wanting to achieve.
    I'm not normally impressed by him, but I was present when he made his acceptance speech on being elected in Surrey Heath and he was very, very impressive.

    In the past I have seen stuff where he quoted the classic in an argument like Boris does.unlike Boris who can pull this off, Gove couldn't and just looked pompous. I haven't seen him do that since.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    Well they don't have Aaron Sorkin writing their scripts for them. Sorkin uses bright, extremely articulate characters to move the story along fast in the direction he wants it to go. The real world is not like that, funnily enough. People are not that articulate, are much less certain of what they want and how to get it and things are a lot more unpredictable.

    Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
    To be fair, Sorkin and Gove have certain things in common
    Is Sorkin an absolute arsehole
    He bears relatively little responsibility for fucking up English education.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,401

    ***PRIVATE POLLING KLAXON***

    The news [about Margaret Ferrier] broke as SNP MPs were at an “away day” in Broadway House, a few minutes’ walk from the Houses of Parliament, to discuss the party’s approach to the general election and share private polling data.

    It is understood that the research largely mirrors public polling and shows that Glasgow, Lanarkshire, the Western Isles, Midlothian and East Lothian are all within Labour’s grasp.

    Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, will hold one-to-one meetings with his MP group this week, at which he will discuss personalised campaign plans that have been drawn up with a seconded member of staff from party headquarters.

    There is disquiet among the group, who do not believe there is enough of a coherent vision to sustain an election campaign. One MP queried the lack of public clarity over the SNP’s offer to the electorate, which they contrasted with the targeted push by Labour. Another source at Westminster was more blunt: “There is no strategy as yet.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/margaret-ferrier-mp-who-travelled-by-train-with-covid-loses-ban-appeal-8kr5z6hm2

    and

    SNP at risk of election wipeout in party’s Bermuda Triangle

    Labour’s revival could turn Lanarkshire and Glasgow into a political graveyard for Nationalists


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-at-risk-of-election-wipeout-in-partys-bermuda-triangle-fzllhdw33

    Top marks for the comparison between Glasgow and Bermuda, don't think that comparison has ever been made before.

    Thank you for reinvigorating my
    schadenfreude.. its been a Nit quiet of late bar something about a bus not being insured?
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Braverman is handling her speeding story badly. By so obviously not answering basic questions she gives the story legs. If she falls it will be entirely self inflicted.

    Whether or not she falls, her Commons performance yesterday has surely done her fatal damage in a future leadership race. Simply delivering one scripted line again and again was clay-footed and embarrassing in the extreme. That will have come across very clearly to right wing Tories who she's looking to appeal to.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153

    This is why I think Braverman is toast, there's an email trail.

    Officials raised concerns about Suella Braverman’s conduct over a speeding fine in emails sent to the Cabinet Office, it has emerged, as questions are asked about her future.

    Rishi Sunak is considering the emails as he weighs up an independent investigation into claims that the home secretary breached the ministerial code.

    Braverman is said to have asked civil servants in September last year to help her to avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence by arranging a private driving awareness course. Officials were so concerned about the request that they emailed the propriety and ethics team in the Cabinet Office to ask whether it was appropriate. They were instructed to disregard the request.

    The emails are at odds with claims from Braverman’s allies, who say she asked civil servants only for advice. The Times has been told that the officials are explicit that Braverman asked them to arrange the course, potentially breaching both the civil service code of conduct and the ministerial code.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-latest-news-starmer-sunak-ministerial-code-speeding-2023-mjnjmwdct

    It would be interesting to know the sequence of events, as it's alleged that both the Permanent Secretary at the Home Office and the "propriety and ethics team" at the Cabinet Office were asked for similar advice.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    ***PRIVATE POLLING KLAXON***

    The news [about Margaret Ferrier] broke as SNP MPs were at an “away day” in Broadway House, a few minutes’ walk from the Houses of Parliament, to discuss the party’s approach to the general election and share private polling data.

    It is understood that the research largely mirrors public polling and shows that Glasgow, Lanarkshire, the Western Isles, Midlothian and East Lothian are all within Labour’s grasp.

    Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, will hold one-to-one meetings with his MP group this week, at which he will discuss personalised campaign plans that have been drawn up with a seconded member of staff from party headquarters.

    There is disquiet among the group, who do not believe there is enough of a coherent vision to sustain an election campaign. One MP queried the lack of public clarity over the SNP’s offer to the electorate, which they contrasted with the targeted push by Labour. Another source at Westminster was more blunt: “There is no strategy as yet.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/margaret-ferrier-mp-who-travelled-by-train-with-covid-loses-ban-appeal-8kr5z6hm2

    and

    SNP at risk of election wipeout in party’s Bermuda Triangle

    Labour’s revival could turn Lanarkshire and Glasgow into a political graveyard for Nationalists


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-at-risk-of-election-wipeout-in-partys-bermuda-triangle-fzllhdw33

    Top marks for the comparison between Glasgow and Bermuda, don't think that comparison has ever been made before.

    It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Leon said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.

    This “scandal” is so trivial it is embarrassing
    So embarrassing that she was utterly incapable of providing a simple explanation of her behaviour when asked in Parliament.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    "they don't have Sorkin" is quite damning when you think that the structure of politics is such that we all accept that it couldn't possibly be populated with people with the same ability as popular screenwriters.

    I mean I know a screenwriter or two and lovely and insightful as they are I wouldn't put them in the seat of government.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,386
    edited May 2023

    rcs1000 said:

    In these days of inflation and non-zero interest rates you need a platform that pays you interest or lets you bet an inflation-proof asset like canned mackerel or CocaCola stock. Robert F. Kennedy is obviously not a 4% chance of being the next US president, but also you shouldn't bet against it.

    The idea that he has one fifth the chance of Donald Trump is absurd
    Likewise the idea that he's got twice as much chance as Kamala, who has a lovely, simple route to the White House consisting of

    1) Very old person dies or gets sick
    2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
    I’m rewatching West Wing.

    Damn our politicians are shit.

    I'm rewatching the Sopranos.

    Damn our mobsters are shit.

    It's almost as if real life doesn't conform to a planned narrative arc, isn't written by scriptwriters, and isn't performed by trained actors.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Chris said:

    This is why I think Braverman is toast, there's an email trail.

    Officials raised concerns about Suella Braverman’s conduct over a speeding fine in emails sent to the Cabinet Office, it has emerged, as questions are asked about her future.

    Rishi Sunak is considering the emails as he weighs up an independent investigation into claims that the home secretary breached the ministerial code.

    Braverman is said to have asked civil servants in September last year to help her to avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence by arranging a private driving awareness course. Officials were so concerned about the request that they emailed the propriety and ethics team in the Cabinet Office to ask whether it was appropriate. They were instructed to disregard the request.

    The emails are at odds with claims from Braverman’s allies, who say she asked civil servants only for advice. The Times has been told that the officials are explicit that Braverman asked them to arrange the course, potentially breaching both the civil service code of conduct and the ministerial code.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-latest-news-starmer-sunak-ministerial-code-speeding-2023-mjnjmwdct

    It would be interesting to know the sequence of events, as it's alleged that both the Permanent Secretary at the Home Office and the "propriety and ethics team" at the Cabinet Office were asked for similar advice.
    Shows you how times change: when Blunkett sped through a passport for his ex-lovers nanny, no-one in the civil service raised any such complaint.

    Progress, of a sort.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    The likely outcome is Rishi doesn't sack her, and she resigns on Thursday to focus on her leadership ambitions.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153

    ….

    Leon said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.



    This “scandal” is so trivial it is embarrassing
    Although reading the article @Chris linked I realise that JRM made the same argument I did.

    Ewwwh
    It's touching that Sue Ellen is being defended by J. R. Mogg.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    edited May 2023
    Meanwhile on topic

    My seemingly indestructible 88-yr old aunt with significant co-morbidities, bent in half, thin as a sheet of paper, albeit still whip smart and retains all her critical faculties, sent me a text yesterday. This from someone who doesn't go onto the internet and has never had a laptop or smartphone.

    Apparently her mobile provider is phasing out 3G phones at the end of 2024 and she is worried. Will she need to get a new phone.

    The point being that she needs to make it to the end of 2024 and worry about the phone later, and each month it becomes more challenging.

    Is the problem Joe Biden is facing. He may be fit to stand for POTUS now but in peoples' minds will be each successive year and his abilities.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.

    ..She even tried to get Jenrick to take one of the questions which he correctly refused to do.
    I almost felt sorry for her at that, it was so pitifully inept.
    Did she ever practice as a lawyer ?

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    TOPPING said:

    "they don't have Sorkin" is quite damning when you think that the structure of politics is such that we all accept that it couldn't possibly be populated with people with the same ability as popular screenwriters.

    I mean I know a screenwriter or two and lovely and insightful as they are I wouldn't put them in the seat of government.

    You do realise they don't perform live ?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    One of the main problems with Bravermanspeedingoneononetrainingethicscivilservantsadvicegivenornotgate is that it is so fucking boring
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,751

    Jonathan said:

    Braverman is handling her speeding story badly. By so obviously not answering basic questions she gives the story legs. If she falls it will be entirely self inflicted.

    Whether or not she falls, her Commons performance yesterday has surely done her fatal damage in a future leadership race. Simply delivering one scripted line again and again was clay-footed and embarrassing in the extreme. That will have come across very clearly to right wing Tories who she's looking to appeal to.
    The fascinating Tory policy of wanting both more and fewer migrants into the country while sending and not sending Paddington bear to Rwanda has served it well for quite a time. But those chickens must soon come home to roost. The HS will be well off it she is out of the Home Office before this happens. Her performance in the HoC yesterday suggests she is trying her best to go.

  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    "they don't have Sorkin" is quite damning when you think that the structure of politics is such that we all accept that it couldn't possibly be populated with people with the same ability as popular screenwriters.

    I mean I know a screenwriter or two and lovely and insightful as they are I wouldn't put them in the seat of government.

    What on earth are you talking about? The reason Sorkin can write a political drama where the good guys triumph, and with tremendous style, isn't that he'd be a notably able politician. It's that he's in full control of everything all the characters do at all times, and every event that happens, whereas the real world isn't like that.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Spain wants to ban end-to-end encryption for hundreds of millions of people within the European Union, according to a leaked document "that reveals strong support among EU member states for proposals to scan private messages for illegal content."
    https://twitter.com/KimZetter/status/1660740980650409984

    Where does the UK stand on such things these days ?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,619
    Leon said:

    One of the main problems with Bravermanspeedingoneononetrainingethicscivilservantsadvicegivenornotgate is that it is so fucking boring

    All we need to know is that a senior Tory tried to get out of what the rest of us would have to do. It only needs an attention span of ten seconds or so.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile on topic

    My seemingly indestructible 88-yr old aunt with significant co-morbidities, bent in half, thin as a sheet of paper, albeit still whip smart and retains all her critical faculties, sent me a text yesterday. This from someone who doesn't go onto the internet and has never had a laptop or smartphone.

    Apparently her mobile provider is phasing out 3G phones at the end of 2024 and she is worried. Will she need to get a new phone.

    The point being that she needs to make it to the end of 2024 and worry about the phone later, and each month it becomes more challenging.

    Is the problem Joe Biden is facing. He may be fit to stand for POTUS now but in peoples' minds will be each successive year and his abilities.

    Quite. You look at him now and you inwardly wince. Ouch. He’s quite old. But he’ll probably make it though the day

    If he runs in 2024 he’s got to last to 2028 when he will be 86. It’s insane

  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153
    Leon said:

    One of the main problems with Bravermanspeedingoneononetrainingethicscivilservantsadvicegivenornotgate is that it is so fucking boring

    Obviously not as boring as the alternative activities in your jet-setting lifestyle.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile on topic

    My seemingly indestructible 88-yr old aunt with significant co-morbidities, bent in half, thin as a sheet of paper, albeit still whip smart and retains all her critical faculties sent me a text yesterday. This from someone who doesn't go onto the internet and has not laptop/smartphone, etc so quite a technophobe or a techno never bothered with it.

    Apparently her mobile provider is phasing out 3G phones at the end of 2024 and she is worried. Will she need to get a new phone.

    The point being that she needs to make it to the end of 2024 and worry about the phone later, and each month it becomes more challenging.

    Is the problem Joe Biden is facing. He may be fit to stand for POTUS now but in peoples' minds will be each successive year and his abilities.

    A weird obsession with his age and mental faculty here on pb. If he was facing a 45 year old it would be an issue. But he is facing a man who was delighted to have aced a really tough memory test back in 2020.

    The questions?

    "The fifth-to-last question on the test asks you to repeat a sentence out loud, before naming as many words as you can starting with F. In the following “abstraction” section, you have to spot the similarity between different objects such as trains and bicycles (modes of transport), or a watch and a ruler (measuring devices).

    Next, you have to recall the random words that were included in the earlier memory section. This may be the part that’s easiest to trip over. And finally, for the orientation part of the test, you have to … say what the date is."
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    One of the main problems with Bravermanspeedingoneononetrainingethicscivilservantsadvicegivenornotgate is that it is so fucking boring

    Obviously not as boring as the alternative activities in your jet-setting lifestyle.
    Actually that is true. I’m waiting to do a hotel tour. They are REALLY boring. Even more boring than bravermanspeedingtrainingetxgate
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740

    This is why I think Braverman is toast, there's an email trail.

    Officials raised concerns about Suella Braverman’s conduct over a speeding fine in emails sent to the Cabinet Office, it has emerged, as questions are asked about her future.

    Rishi Sunak is considering the emails as he weighs up an independent investigation into claims that the home secretary breached the ministerial code.

    Braverman is said to have asked civil servants in September last year to help her to avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence by arranging a private driving awareness course. Officials were so concerned about the request that they emailed the propriety and ethics team in the Cabinet Office to ask whether it was appropriate. They were instructed to disregard the request.

    The emails are at odds with claims from Braverman’s allies, who say she asked civil servants only for advice. The Times has been told that the officials are explicit that Braverman asked them to arrange the course, potentially breaching both the civil service code of conduct and the ministerial code.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-latest-news-starmer-sunak-ministerial-code-speeding-2023-mjnjmwdct

    I will celebrate if Braverman (my MP) is sacked as Home Secretary over this.
    Of course it would be better if her demise was caused by her awful judgement in backing Brexit or supporting Liz Truss, both decisions have cost this country dearly.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    Nigelb said:

    Spain wants to ban end-to-end encryption for hundreds of millions of people within the European Union, according to a leaked document "that reveals strong support among EU member states for proposals to scan private messages for illegal content."
    https://twitter.com/KimZetter/status/1660740980650409984

    Where does the UK stand on such things these days ?

    Can we sell it off to the highest bidder? If not, what generates the best headline in the Mail.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Leon said:

    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    One of the main problems with Bravermanspeedingoneononetrainingethicscivilservantsadvicegivenornotgate is that it is so fucking boring

    Obviously not as boring as the alternative activities in your jet-setting lifestyle.
    Actually that is true. I’m waiting to do a hotel tour. They are REALLY boring. Even more boring than bravermanspeedingtrainingetxgate
    Why not write a short story about a truly deviant Home Secretary to pass the time?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile on topic

    My seemingly indestructible 88-yr old aunt with significant co-morbidities, bent in half, thin as a sheet of paper, albeit still whip smart and retains all her critical faculties sent me a text yesterday. This from someone who doesn't go onto the internet and has not laptop/smartphone, etc so quite a technophobe or a techno never bothered with it.

    Apparently her mobile provider is phasing out 3G phones at the end of 2024 and she is worried. Will she need to get a new phone.

    The point being that she needs to make it to the end of 2024 and worry about the phone later, and each month it becomes more challenging.

    Is the problem Joe Biden is facing. He may be fit to stand for POTUS now but in peoples' minds will be each successive year and his abilities.

    A weird obsession with his age and mental faculty here on pb. If he was facing a 45 year old it would be an issue. But he is facing a man who was delighted to have aced a really tough memory test back in 2020.

    The questions?

    "The fifth-to-last question on the test asks you to repeat a sentence out loud, before naming as many words as you can starting with F. In the following “abstraction” section, you have to spot the similarity between different objects such as trains and bicycles (modes of transport), or a watch and a ruler (measuring devices).

    Next, you have to recall the random words that were included in the earlier memory section. This may be the part that’s easiest to trip over. And finally, for the orientation part of the test, you have to … say what the date is."
    The fact Biden’s likely opponent is an even less credible candidate IS the problem
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    Chris said:

    ….

    Leon said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.



    This “scandal” is so trivial it is embarrassing
    Although reading the article @Chris linked I realise that JRM made the same argument I did.

    Ewwwh
    It's touching that Sue Ellen is being defended by J. R. Mogg.
    Are they Southforked now?

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,751
    Nigelb said:

    Spain wants to ban end-to-end encryption for hundreds of millions of people within the European Union, according to a leaked document "that reveals strong support among EU member states for proposals to scan private messages for illegal content."
    https://twitter.com/KimZetter/status/1660740980650409984

    Where does the UK stand on such things these days ?

    Like most other policies I should think. The government's clear line is that it should be banned and that it should continue.

    The actuality will be that criminals will be able to access your sensitive data and steal stuff, and the police won't be able to access the data of the criminals.

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile on topic

    My seemingly indestructible 88-yr old aunt with significant co-morbidities, bent in half, thin as a sheet of paper, albeit still whip smart and retains all her critical faculties sent me a text yesterday. This from someone who doesn't go onto the internet and has not laptop/smartphone, etc so quite a technophobe or a techno never bothered with it.

    Apparently her mobile provider is phasing out 3G phones at the end of 2024 and she is worried. Will she need to get a new phone.

    The point being that she needs to make it to the end of 2024 and worry about the phone later, and each month it becomes more challenging.

    Is the problem Joe Biden is facing. He may be fit to stand for POTUS now but in peoples' minds will be each successive year and his abilities.

    A weird obsession with his age and mental faculty here on pb. If he was facing a 45 year old it would be an issue. But he is facing a man who was delighted to have aced a really tough memory test back in 2020.

    The questions?

    "The fifth-to-last question on the test asks you to repeat a sentence out loud, before naming as many words as you can starting with F. In the following “abstraction” section, you have to spot the similarity between different objects such as trains and bicycles (modes of transport), or a watch and a ruler (measuring devices).

    Next, you have to recall the random words that were included in the earlier memory section. This may be the part that’s easiest to trip over. And finally, for the orientation part of the test, you have to … say what the date is."
    You think age has no bearing on peoples' ability? I'm sure you have relatives who were absolutely on the ball up until and through, say, their 80s (it will differ for everyone, might be earlier, might be later) and then dramatically deteriorated both in physical and mental energy. It is a factor over 80 imo and people are not illogical to think about it.

    Will it disqualify him from running or winning? Of course not. But it is a factor that will influence some, perhaps many people.

    If he was 45yrs old I would have plenty of issues with his performance and ability but age-related deterioration would not be one of them.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    geoffw said:

    Chris said:

    ….

    Leon said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.



    This “scandal” is so trivial it is embarrassing
    Although reading the article @Chris linked I realise that JRM made the same argument I did.

    Ewwwh
    It's touching that Sue Ellen is being defended by J. R. Mogg.
    Are they Southforked now?

    D alas, no
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,342
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    One of the main problems with Bravermanspeedingoneononetrainingethicscivilservantsadvicegivenornotgate is that it is so fucking boring

    All we need to know is that a senior Tory tried to get out of what the rest of us would have to do. It only needs an attention span of ten seconds or so.
    It's kind of trivial, but gives Sunak a chance to say - 'we need to regain the trust of the public and make it clear that unlike under a previous PM everyone has to follow the same rules even if you are a government minister or prime minister'. If he can't even pretend to make that distinction between him and Johnson what on earth is the point of him? Even by hesitating he is missing his chance.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    Leon said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.



    This “scandal” is so trivial it is embarrassing
    Any sacking of these useless twats can only be good for the country. Current cabinet is full of dross.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,478

    This is why I think Braverman is toast, there's an email trail.

    Officials raised concerns about Suella Braverman’s conduct over a speeding fine in emails sent to the Cabinet Office, it has emerged, as questions are asked about her future.

    Rishi Sunak is considering the emails as he weighs up an independent investigation into claims that the home secretary breached the ministerial code.

    Braverman is said to have asked civil servants in September last year to help her to avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence by arranging a private driving awareness course. Officials were so concerned about the request that they emailed the propriety and ethics team in the Cabinet Office to ask whether it was appropriate. They were instructed to disregard the request.

    The emails are at odds with claims from Braverman’s allies, who say she asked civil servants only for advice. The Times has been told that the officials are explicit that Braverman asked them to arrange the course, potentially breaching both the civil service code of conduct and the ministerial code.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-latest-news-starmer-sunak-ministerial-code-speeding-2023-mjnjmwdct

    Yes. What she did isn't the scandal, the cover-up is.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607

    This is why I think Braverman is toast, there's an email trail.

    Officials raised concerns about Suella Braverman’s conduct over a speeding fine in emails sent to the Cabinet Office, it has emerged, as questions are asked about her future.

    Rishi Sunak is considering the emails as he weighs up an independent investigation into claims that the home secretary breached the ministerial code.

    Braverman is said to have asked civil servants in September last year to help her to avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence by arranging a private driving awareness course. Officials were so concerned about the request that they emailed the propriety and ethics team in the Cabinet Office to ask whether it was appropriate. They were instructed to disregard the request.

    The emails are at odds with claims from Braverman’s allies, who say she asked civil servants only for advice. The Times has been told that the officials are explicit that Braverman asked them to arrange the course, potentially breaching both the civil service code of conduct and the ministerial code.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-latest-news-starmer-sunak-ministerial-code-speeding-2023-mjnjmwdct

    Yes. What she did isn't the scandal, the cover-up is.
    I haven't been following it too closely but on R4 this morning the soundbite that I came away with from the exchanges was "...didn't try to avoid any due penalties".
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile on topic

    My seemingly indestructible 88-yr old aunt with significant co-morbidities, bent in half, thin as a sheet of paper, albeit still whip smart and retains all her critical faculties sent me a text yesterday. This from someone who doesn't go onto the internet and has not laptop/smartphone, etc so quite a technophobe or a techno never bothered with it.

    Apparently her mobile provider is phasing out 3G phones at the end of 2024 and she is worried. Will she need to get a new phone.

    The point being that she needs to make it to the end of 2024 and worry about the phone later, and each month it becomes more challenging.

    Is the problem Joe Biden is facing. He may be fit to stand for POTUS now but in peoples' minds will be each successive year and his abilities.

    A weird obsession with his age and mental faculty here on pb. If he was facing a 45 year old it would be an issue. But he is facing a man who was delighted to have aced a really tough memory test back in 2020.

    The questions?

    "The fifth-to-last question on the test asks you to repeat a sentence out loud, before naming as many words as you can starting with F. In the following “abstraction” section, you have to spot the similarity between different objects such as trains and bicycles (modes of transport), or a watch and a ruler (measuring devices).

    Next, you have to recall the random words that were included in the earlier memory section. This may be the part that’s easiest to trip over. And finally, for the orientation part of the test, you have to … say what the date is."
    You think age has no bearing on peoples' ability? I'm sure you have relatives who were absolutely on the ball up until and through, say, their 80s (it will differ for everyone, might be earlier, might be later) and then dramatically deteriorated both in physical and mental energy. It is a factor over 80 imo and people are not illogical to think about it.

    Will it disqualify him from running or winning? Of course not. But it is a factor that will influence some, perhaps many people.

    If he was 45yrs old I would have plenty of issues with his performance and ability but age-related deterioration would not be one of them.
    Sure, his age is a volative factor in his capabilities and there is downside. But from a political betting and re-election point of view it is way, way, behind the economy. That is what presidential election bettors should think about it.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    Sean_F said:

    ***PRIVATE POLLING KLAXON***

    The news [about Margaret Ferrier] broke as SNP MPs were at an “away day” in Broadway House, a few minutes’ walk from the Houses of Parliament, to discuss the party’s approach to the general election and share private polling data.

    It is understood that the research largely mirrors public polling and shows that Glasgow, Lanarkshire, the Western Isles, Midlothian and East Lothian are all within Labour’s grasp.

    Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, will hold one-to-one meetings with his MP group this week, at which he will discuss personalised campaign plans that have been drawn up with a seconded member of staff from party headquarters.

    There is disquiet among the group, who do not believe there is enough of a coherent vision to sustain an election campaign. One MP queried the lack of public clarity over the SNP’s offer to the electorate, which they contrasted with the targeted push by Labour. Another source at Westminster was more blunt: “There is no strategy as yet.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/margaret-ferrier-mp-who-travelled-by-train-with-covid-loses-ban-appeal-8kr5z6hm2

    and

    SNP at risk of election wipeout in party’s Bermuda Triangle

    Labour’s revival could turn Lanarkshire and Glasgow into a political graveyard for Nationalists


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-at-risk-of-election-wipeout-in-partys-bermuda-triangle-fzllhdw33

    Top marks for the comparison between Glasgow and Bermuda, don't think that comparison has ever been made before.

    It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
    Pretend Scottish Labour are absolute shit , as shit as could be but I do hope the SNP get a severe doing which will be richly deserved.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    The amount of trade S Korea does with Vietnam is astonishing (compare with our top three trading partners).

    Vietnam emerges as source of Korea's biggest trade surplus
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=351266

    Around 70% of Vietnamese workers still work in farming.
    And they're not even in the G20.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @paulwaugh
    One former minister who used to work with Braverman in the same department told me: “I don’t often say people are completely useless, but if her desk had not been occupied I wouldn’t have noticed.”
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,788
    As @RishiSunak weighs up the evidence for and against keeping @SuellaBraverman, some Tory MPs think he's already shown he doesn't trust her to do her job properly.

    One former minister who used to work with Braverman in the same department told me: “I don’t often say people are completely useless, but if her desk had not been occupied I wouldn’t have noticed.”


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1660905773935763456
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    This is why I think Braverman is toast, there's an email trail.

    Officials raised concerns about Suella Braverman’s conduct over a speeding fine in emails sent to the Cabinet Office, it has emerged, as questions are asked about her future.

    Rishi Sunak is considering the emails as he weighs up an independent investigation into claims that the home secretary breached the ministerial code.

    Braverman is said to have asked civil servants in September last year to help her to avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence by arranging a private driving awareness course. Officials were so concerned about the request that they emailed the propriety and ethics team in the Cabinet Office to ask whether it was appropriate. They were instructed to disregard the request.

    The emails are at odds with claims from Braverman’s allies, who say she asked civil servants only for advice. The Times has been told that the officials are explicit that Braverman asked them to arrange the course, potentially breaching both the civil service code of conduct and the ministerial code.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-latest-news-starmer-sunak-ministerial-code-speeding-2023-mjnjmwdct

    Yes. What she did isn't the scandal, the cover-up is.
    Not quite - it seems

    1) what she did was outside the bounds of acceptable (asking a staff member to sort out a personal issue)
    2) she then seems to have told a story that doesn't reflect the actual reality (of point 1).

    Now if Bozo was in charge he couldn't really do much about 2 (for he has done the same himself multiple times) but Bozo isn't in power and is seemingly planning to immediately resign if he gets a 10 ban from the commons - taking the MPs who have got peerages with him.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,648

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile on topic

    My seemingly indestructible 88-yr old aunt with significant co-morbidities, bent in half, thin as a sheet of paper, albeit still whip smart and retains all her critical faculties sent me a text yesterday. This from someone who doesn't go onto the internet and has not laptop/smartphone, etc so quite a technophobe or a techno never bothered with it.

    Apparently her mobile provider is phasing out 3G phones at the end of 2024 and she is worried. Will she need to get a new phone.

    The point being that she needs to make it to the end of 2024 and worry about the phone later, and each month it becomes more challenging.

    Is the problem Joe Biden is facing. He may be fit to stand for POTUS now but in peoples' minds will be each successive year and his abilities.

    A weird obsession with his age and mental faculty here on pb. If he was facing a 45 year old it would be an issue. But he is facing a man who was delighted to have aced a really tough memory test back in 2020.

    The questions?

    "The fifth-to-last question on the test asks you to repeat a sentence out loud, before naming as many words as you can starting with F. In the following “abstraction” section, you have to spot the similarity between different objects such as trains and bicycles (modes of transport), or a watch and a ruler (measuring devices).

    Next, you have to recall the random words that were included in the earlier memory section. This may be the part that’s easiest to trip over. And finally, for the orientation part of the test, you have to … say what the date is."
    TBF, if Trump got those right that puts him ahead of any employee of the Student Loan Company.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,648

    As @RishiSunak weighs up the evidence for and against keeping @SuellaBraverman, some Tory MPs think he's already shown he doesn't trust her to do her job properly.

    One former minister who used to work with Braverman in the same department told me: “I don’t often say people are completely useless, but if her desk had not been occupied I wouldn’t have noticed.”


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1660905773935763456

    Harsh.

    Surely her empty desk would have done a much better job?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,788
    edited May 2023
    Looks like this Russian has never heard of the French, the IRA, or the SNP?

    Igor Shishkin counsels that they need to find England’s “enemies…who harbor a serious grudge against the British” who would want to “use a Javelin [missile] in London right now”.

    https://twitter.com/vladaknowlton/status/1660772164780576769
  • Options
    kamski said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    One of the main problems with Bravermanspeedingoneononetrainingethicscivilservantsadvicegivenornotgate is that it is so fucking boring

    All we need to know is that a senior Tory tried to get out of what the rest of us would have to do. It only needs an attention span of ten seconds or so.
    It's kind of trivial, but gives Sunak a chance to say - 'we need to regain the trust of the public and make it clear that unlike under a previous PM everyone has to follow the same rules even if you are a government minister or prime minister'. If he can't even pretend to make that distinction between him and Johnson what on earth is the point of him? Even by hesitating he is missing his chance.
    Sunak didn't follow lockdown rules - he was fined over it (arguably rather harshly and the Met's logic over what did and didn't get a fine was bizarre, but still).

    Sunak's strategy on all these is to say "I follow due process, think carefully, and decide". I agree it doesn't offer the appeal of decisiveness. But there are problems with being trigger-happy. Your own backbenchers think you unfair and capricious, creating important enemies outside the tent, and opponents put up a string of allegations of mixed merit on the basis they know you'll shoot first and ask questions later.

    Yesterday worked out okay for Sunak. Braverman put up a buttock-clenchingly bad Commons performance meaning, if this does end with her departure, she'll get a much less sympathetic welcome by backbench Tories than if he'd got rid of her earlier.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,648

    Looks like this Russian has never heard of the French, IRA, or the SNP?

    Igor Shishkin counsels that they need to find England’s “enemies…who harbor a serious grudge against the British” who would want to “use a Javelin [missile] in London right now”.

    https://twitter.com/vladaknowlton/status/1660772164780576769

    On current form if the SNP had a Javelin they'd use it to blow their own feet off.

    (Or sell it to buy a campervan, perhaps.)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,174
    Nigelb said:

    Spain wants to ban end-to-end encryption for hundreds of millions of people within the European Union, according to a leaked document "that reveals strong support among EU member states for proposals to scan private messages for illegal content."
    https://twitter.com/KimZetter/status/1660740980650409984

    Where does the UK stand on such things these days ?

    Just as bad. Politicians everywhere are trying to repeal the laws of maths and physics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/24/signal-app-warns-it-will-quit-uk-if-law-weakens-end-to-end-encryption
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @SkyNews

    "I think she's probably safe today, I wouldn't like to look at her future for any longer than the end of the week."

    Claire Pearsall Former Conservative adviser says the PM is "particularly weak" if he 'can't deal with a Cabinet Minister.'

    trib.al/QO7p4ZH
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    OH NO

    I am beginning to feel some sympathy for Braverman. New in the job, gets done for speeding, asks officials (she is surrounded by officials, is one of the few protected cabinet members, I'm sure someone stirs her tea for her) what the form is can you keep me away from the masses and then this is somehow breaking the ministerial code if that's the charge. Official consults and it turns out this is one area where she doesn't have special treatment.

    Unless she instructed the DVLA and Met Police to treat her differently, or her official to ensure they did I'm failing to see the smoking gun.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    Is there more to the Braverman story than meets the eye? I assumed it was Westminster village fluff yesterday. Seemed silly and trivial. Am I missing something?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,788

    Is there more to the Braverman story than meets the eye? I assumed it was Westminster village fluff yesterday. Seemed silly and trivial. Am I missing something?

    Yes, she paid her speeding fine in cash.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @paulwaugh
    Braverman’s resignation letter last year - “Pretending we haven’t made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can’t see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious politics” - sounds like advice for a PM who may now regret appointing her
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,648

    Is there more to the Braverman story than meets the eye? I assumed it was Westminster village fluff yesterday. Seemed silly and trivial. Am I missing something?

    Yes, she paid her speeding fine in cash.
    Uh-oh, here we go...
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,401
    Jonathan said:

    Braverman is handling her speeding story badly. By so obviously not answering basic questions she gives the story legs. If she falls it will be entirely self inflicted.

    Very easy to say that but when the opposition, civil service and the media are attacking like a frenzied pack of hounds, not so easy.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,401

    Jonathan said:

    Braverman is handling her speeding story badly. By so obviously not answering basic questions she gives the story legs. If she falls it will be entirely self inflicted.

    Whether or not she falls, her Commons performance yesterday has surely done her fatal damage in a future leadership race. Simply delivering one scripted line again and again was clay-footed and embarrassing in the extreme. That will have come across very clearly to right wing Tories who she's looking to appeal to.
    That's what Maggie did.. didn't harm her...
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    If she really paid her fine in cash she goes well up in my estimation
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    geoffw said:

    If she really paid her fine in cash she goes well up in my estimation

    In 1p coins.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    edited May 2023
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?
    Given the amount of discussion there's already been about precisely that point, I'll treat that as a rhetorical question.

    But I think these two facts tell us something: (1) people briefing for Braverman off the record have clearly been insistent that she only asked for advice rather than instructing a civil servant to set up the course and (2) Braverman answering questions on the record has repeatedly refused to deny that she instructed them to set up the course.

    It isn’t a rhetorical point.

    She asked a civil service colleague to do something. The colleague said no, it’s personal/political and I can’t. The colleague informed the permanent secretary.

    *Based on what we know* there is nothing wrong in that fact pattern. The only slight warning sign is that the colleague felt it was necessary to inform their boss that the request had been made. That may be nothing, it may just be procedure, or it may be a sign that they felt they needed senior support.

    To make a request isn’t a breach of the ministerial code.

    On your second point I think you are making a distinction with a difference. “Please look into booking is a private course”. Is that a request for advice or action? Either way if there was no action then nothing wrong was done.

    Fundamentally we have civil servants to advise ministers. If *asking for advice* is a breach of the code that obviates their purpose. If requesting action *which is not carried out* is a breach of the code then the minister needs to have someone else who can advise them on what they can ask for or not. It is entirely reasonable for a minister to ask for action. And it is entirely reasonable for the civil service to say no.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    TOPPING said:

    geoffw said:

    If she really paid her fine in cash she goes well up in my estimation

    In 1p coins.
    in for a penny …

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,788
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    I don't know whether this has been discussed, but there are some details of the allegations against Braverman in this Guardian report that I hadn't seen elsewhere:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request

    The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".

    Even if she had asked the civil servant to do something why is that wrong?

    The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.

    ..She even tried to get Jenrick to take one of the questions which he correctly refused to do.
    I almost felt sorry for her at that, it was so pitifully inept.
    Did she ever practice as a lawyer ?

    She did.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,334
    Biden does face a primary challenge too from Bobby Kennedy's son Robert on an anti vaccine, anti lockdown ticket but has a clear lead.

    Meanwhile on the GOP side African American South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has announced himself as the latest challenger to Trump and DeSantis
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-gop-primary-field-is-growing-fast/
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,647
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    One of the main problems with Bravermanspeedingoneononetrainingethicscivilservantsadvicegivenornotgate is that it is so fucking boring

    All we need to know is that a senior Tory tried to get out of what the rest of us would have to do. It only needs an attention span of ten seconds or so.
    She tried to get out of doing a speed awareness course as part of a group in favour of doing a speed awareness course as an individual, something which many prominent people do. Big deal. And nor do I really care whether she initially tried to involve a civil service aide or not.

    I cannot for the life of me see what electoral benefit Labour gets from pursuing this, at the expense of all the other meaningful things they should be concentrating on. Even if she goes, it would be a case of replacing an unpopular minister with someone potentially less obnoxious, be careful what you wish for.

    The only meat in the story is that the circumstances and timing of it all coming out indicates a move by Sunak to bring her to heel.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,553
    ...
    TOPPING said:

    OH NO

    I am beginning to feel some sympathy for Braverman. New in the job, gets done for speeding, asks officials (she is surrounded by officials, is one of the few protected cabinet members, I'm sure someone stirs her tea for her) what the form is can you keep me away from the masses and then this is somehow breaking the ministerial code if that's the charge. Official consults and it turns out this is one area where she doesn't have special treatment.

    Unless she instructed the DVLA and Met Police to treat her differently, or her official to ensure they did I'm failing to see the smoking gun.

    But Braverman and by default Sunak are the Laurel and Hardy pair who have engineered something enormous out of nothing. It would seem, between them they couldn't have made a more hamfisted effort to put the story down.
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