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Biden continues to get stronger in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Biden continues to get stronger in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen in the Smarkets chart Biden has continued to rise in the WH2024 betting and the main limitation he faces is in relation to his own health. When the primaries start in early January he will be 81 and that is surely going to become an issue.
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1) Very old person dies or gets sick
2) Incumbent president beats proven sex offender who is also being prosecuted for multiple other crimes
Damn our politicians are shit.
Mr. Waters, aye. That said, the media is worse. And if you compare today's politicians to Roman emperors they can look pathetic (compared to Trajan or Aurelian) or really rather good (compared to Honorius). The world's always had times of good and bad leadership.
Most of us, including our politicians, only think what they ought to have said long after the conversation is over. Sorkin's characters simply don't recognise that disappointment.
Edit: Post hoc ergo propter hoc even…
A multipolar world where the USA is merely primus inter pares (and showing signs of absolute decline - eg life expectancy) is so much messier. Dramatically and politically
Part of our hankering for the world of the West Wing is simply nostalgia for departed greatness
Unfortunately it is written in such a sterile way it reads like it was composed by really bad AI. A decent chatbot would do a better job
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/22/ai-jobs-policies
I mean, this paragraph
“We need to bear in mind that while automation and robotics can bring novelty and efficiency to certain industries, the overall impact on jobs can be complex and multifaceted, with problems including maintenance costs, recruitment challenges and the need to adapt to changing economic situations.”
Christ almighty. Someone switch it off and on
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/22/top-home-office-mandarin-knew-of-bravermans-alleged-speeding-request
The claim is that a senior civil servant who was working temporarily as an acting staff member in her office ("to help ease the home secretary into her new position after the recent sacking of her predecessor, Priti Patel") was asked by her to arrange a private course for her. The civil servant was concerned about whether this was appropriate, and reported it to the Permanent Secretary. Braverman's request is alleged to have been made in an email. The claim by Braverman's "team" that she only asked for advice, rather than instructing civil servant to arrange the course for her, is disputed by "sources elsewhere in government".
The fall of communism happened with almost zero violence (at the time). A wonderful thing
China’s rise to prosperity seemed completely benevolent - and great for billions of people - until about 2010
As for politicians, domestically Thatcher was good and early Blair was full of hope
Reagan was fairly good, Clinton was fairly good and Obama promised a lot (but did not deliver)
The civil servant said no, and (presumably) was backed up by her permanent secretary.
Ewwwh
It’s been the best of times for people in a lot of poor countries too, as rates of absolute poverty have declined.
Sorry, Rishi, you’re to blame for Braverman
Prime minister vowed to restore seriousness and stability but retaining the home secretary fatally undermines that
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sorry-rishi-youre-to-blame-for-braverman-qd8w6tn9h
The problem is not whether this event warrants dismissal, it's that Cruella continues to be a festering sore in Rishi's cabinet. The question is not whether she will fuck up again, but when and how bad?
The news [about Margaret Ferrier] broke as SNP MPs were at an “away day” in Broadway House, a few minutes’ walk from the Houses of Parliament, to discuss the party’s approach to the general election and share private polling data.
It is understood that the research largely mirrors public polling and shows that Glasgow, Lanarkshire, the Western Isles, Midlothian and East Lothian are all within Labour’s grasp.
Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, will hold one-to-one meetings with his MP group this week, at which he will discuss personalised campaign plans that have been drawn up with a seconded member of staff from party headquarters.
There is disquiet among the group, who do not believe there is enough of a coherent vision to sustain an election campaign. One MP queried the lack of public clarity over the SNP’s offer to the electorate, which they contrasted with the targeted push by Labour. Another source at Westminster was more blunt: “There is no strategy as yet.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/margaret-ferrier-mp-who-travelled-by-train-with-covid-loses-ban-appeal-8kr5z6hm2
and
SNP at risk of election wipeout in party’s Bermuda Triangle
Labour’s revival could turn Lanarkshire and Glasgow into a political graveyard for Nationalists
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-at-risk-of-election-wipeout-in-partys-bermuda-triangle-fzllhdw33
Top marks for the comparison between Glasgow and Bermuda, don't think that comparison has ever been made before.
But I think these two facts tell us something: (1) people briefing for Braverman off the record have clearly been insistent that she only asked for advice rather than instructing a civil servant to set up the course and (2) Braverman answering questions on the record has repeatedly refused to deny that she instructed them to set up the course.
And on a general note why does the speaker allow MPs to do this. They all do it from all parties, although this was the worst case I have ever heard (others evade with more skill). She even tried to get Jenrick to take one of the questions which he correctly refused to do.
However - to somewhat contradict myself - I do believe we now face challenges on a scale humans have never met before. Namely: Climate change, the environment and AI. Of course the last might solve the first two. Or kill everyone
Officials raised concerns about Suella Braverman’s conduct over a speeding fine in emails sent to the Cabinet Office, it has emerged, as questions are asked about her future.
Rishi Sunak is considering the emails as he weighs up an independent investigation into claims that the home secretary breached the ministerial code.
Braverman is said to have asked civil servants in September last year to help her to avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence by arranging a private driving awareness course. Officials were so concerned about the request that they emailed the propriety and ethics team in the Cabinet Office to ask whether it was appropriate. They were instructed to disregard the request.
The emails are at odds with claims from Braverman’s allies, who say she asked civil servants only for advice. The Times has been told that the officials are explicit that Braverman asked them to arrange the course, potentially breaching both the civil service code of conduct and the ministerial code.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-latest-news-starmer-sunak-ministerial-code-speeding-2023-mjnjmwdct
The real issue here is the PM has to ask an “ethics advisor” if what his minister has done is unethical. He can't work it out for himself. It's like ethics is a complete mystery to him. The main question being: can we get away with this?
In the past I have seen stuff where he quoted the classic in an argument like Boris does.unlike Boris who can pull this off, Gove couldn't and just looked pompous. I haven't seen him do that since.
schadenfreude.. its been a Nit quiet of late bar something about a bus not being insured?
The only comfort for the benighted populace is that the tories are so focused on ratfucking each other they haven't really got the time for their traditional sport of ratfucking us.
I mean I know a screenwriter or two and lovely and insightful as they are I wouldn't put them in the seat of government.
Damn our mobsters are shit.
It's almost as if real life doesn't conform to a planned narrative arc, isn't written by scriptwriters, and isn't performed by trained actors.
Progress, of a sort.
My seemingly indestructible 88-yr old aunt with significant co-morbidities, bent in half, thin as a sheet of paper, albeit still whip smart and retains all her critical faculties, sent me a text yesterday. This from someone who doesn't go onto the internet and has never had a laptop or smartphone.
Apparently her mobile provider is phasing out 3G phones at the end of 2024 and she is worried. Will she need to get a new phone.
The point being that she needs to make it to the end of 2024 and worry about the phone later, and each month it becomes more challenging.
Is the problem Joe Biden is facing. He may be fit to stand for POTUS now but in peoples' minds will be each successive year and his abilities.
Did she ever practice as a lawyer ?
https://twitter.com/KimZetter/status/1660740980650409984
Where does the UK stand on such things these days ?
If he runs in 2024 he’s got to last to 2028 when he will be 86. It’s insane
The questions?
"The fifth-to-last question on the test asks you to repeat a sentence out loud, before naming as many words as you can starting with F. In the following “abstraction” section, you have to spot the similarity between different objects such as trains and bicycles (modes of transport), or a watch and a ruler (measuring devices).
Next, you have to recall the random words that were included in the earlier memory section. This may be the part that’s easiest to trip over. And finally, for the orientation part of the test, you have to … say what the date is."
Of course it would be better if her demise was caused by her awful judgement in backing Brexit or supporting Liz Truss, both decisions have cost this country dearly.
The actuality will be that criminals will be able to access your sensitive data and steal stuff, and the police won't be able to access the data of the criminals.
Will it disqualify him from running or winning? Of course not. But it is a factor that will influence some, perhaps many people.
If he was 45yrs old I would have plenty of issues with his performance and ability but age-related deterioration would not be one of them.
Vietnam emerges as source of Korea's biggest trade surplus
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=351266
Around 70% of Vietnamese workers still work in farming.
And they're not even in the G20.
One former minister who used to work with Braverman in the same department told me: “I don’t often say people are completely useless, but if her desk had not been occupied I wouldn’t have noticed.”
One former minister who used to work with Braverman in the same department told me: “I don’t often say people are completely useless, but if her desk had not been occupied I wouldn’t have noticed.”
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1660905773935763456
1) what she did was outside the bounds of acceptable (asking a staff member to sort out a personal issue)
2) she then seems to have told a story that doesn't reflect the actual reality (of point 1).
Now if Bozo was in charge he couldn't really do much about 2 (for he has done the same himself multiple times) but Bozo isn't in power and is seemingly planning to immediately resign if he gets a 10 ban from the commons - taking the MPs who have got peerages with him.
Surely her empty desk would have done a much better job?
Igor Shishkin counsels that they need to find England’s “enemies…who harbor a serious grudge against the British” who would want to “use a Javelin [missile] in London right now”.
https://twitter.com/vladaknowlton/status/1660772164780576769
Sunak's strategy on all these is to say "I follow due process, think carefully, and decide". I agree it doesn't offer the appeal of decisiveness. But there are problems with being trigger-happy. Your own backbenchers think you unfair and capricious, creating important enemies outside the tent, and opponents put up a string of allegations of mixed merit on the basis they know you'll shoot first and ask questions later.
Yesterday worked out okay for Sunak. Braverman put up a buttock-clenchingly bad Commons performance meaning, if this does end with her departure, she'll get a much less sympathetic welcome by backbench Tories than if he'd got rid of her earlier.
(Or sell it to buy a campervan, perhaps.)
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/24/signal-app-warns-it-will-quit-uk-if-law-weakens-end-to-end-encryption
"I think she's probably safe today, I wouldn't like to look at her future for any longer than the end of the week."
Claire Pearsall Former Conservative adviser says the PM is "particularly weak" if he 'can't deal with a Cabinet Minister.'
trib.al/QO7p4ZH
I am beginning to feel some sympathy for Braverman. New in the job, gets done for speeding, asks officials (she is surrounded by officials, is one of the few protected cabinet members, I'm sure someone stirs her tea for her) what the form is can you keep me away from the masses and then this is somehow breaking the ministerial code if that's the charge. Official consults and it turns out this is one area where she doesn't have special treatment.
Unless she instructed the DVLA and Met Police to treat her differently, or her official to ensure they did I'm failing to see the smoking gun.
Braverman’s resignation letter last year - “Pretending we haven’t made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can’t see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious politics” - sounds like advice for a PM who may now regret appointing her
She asked a civil service colleague to do something. The colleague said no, it’s personal/political and I can’t. The colleague informed the permanent secretary.
*Based on what we know* there is nothing wrong in that fact pattern. The only slight warning sign is that the colleague felt it was necessary to inform their boss that the request had been made. That may be nothing, it may just be procedure, or it may be a sign that they felt they needed senior support.
To make a request isn’t a breach of the ministerial code.
On your second point I think you are making a distinction with a difference. “Please look into booking is a private course”. Is that a request for advice or action? Either way if there was no action then nothing wrong was done.
Fundamentally we have civil servants to advise ministers. If *asking for advice* is a breach of the code that obviates their purpose. If requesting action *which is not carried out* is a breach of the code then the minister needs to have someone else who can advise them on what they can ask for or not. It is entirely reasonable for a minister to ask for action. And it is entirely reasonable for the civil service to say no.
Meanwhile on the GOP side African American South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has announced himself as the latest challenger to Trump and DeSantis
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-gop-primary-field-is-growing-fast/
I cannot for the life of me see what electoral benefit Labour gets from pursuing this, at the expense of all the other meaningful things they should be concentrating on. Even if she goes, it would be a case of replacing an unpopular minister with someone potentially less obnoxious, be careful what you wish for.
The only meat in the story is that the circumstances and timing of it all coming out indicates a move by Sunak to bring her to heel.