Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Biden continues to get stronger in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

1235»

Comments

  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,956
    kinabalu said:

    I really do think an apology is in order. This would allow us all to move forward.

    A recantation for Brexit?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,025
    edited May 2023
    Nigelb said:

    NHS staff report 20,000 claims of patient sexual misconduct over five years
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/may/23/nhs-staff-report-20000-claims-of-patient-sexual-misconduct-over-five-years
    Thousands of hospital staff are reporting claims of sexual assaults and harassment by patients, an investigation has found, prompting calls for ministers to address the “daily threat of abuse” faced by doctors and nurses.

    More than 20,000 alleged incidents of sexual violence and sexual misconduct by patients on hospital staff were recorded in the five years to 2022 by 212 NHS trusts in England, freedom of information (FoI) requests by the Guardian and the British Medical Journal (BMJ) found.

    The 20,928 cases accounted for just under 60% of the total alleged incidents trusts disclosed. Allegations included claims of rape, sexual assault, harassment, stalking and sexualised remarks.

    Experts cautioned that the figures were likely to be a serious underestimate as staff are often deterred from making complaints when patients abuse them...

    This is not good, but this data is (or these data are) done in a strange but too common way.

    Rape is an offence carrying a life sentence. Sexualised remarks are somewhere on a spectrum between banter, reprimand and a magistrates court, depending on context. To add them all up to a big shocking figure conclusion is unhelpful and without much meaning.

  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,043
    Cookie said:

    FF43 said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    viewcode said:

    So there'll be a settled view on Brexit good or bad in about 30-40 years. Whether it will be the right one is debatable

    Except not really.

    Before the vote, lot's of people said it be a bad thing, and bad things would happen.

    Since the vote, bad things have happened.

    The number of people who agree it's been a bad thing has monotonically risen since the event.

    There is no Universe in which it turns out not have been a bad thing.

    Yet still the cultists cling on...
    Yes, two bad things have happened since Brexit: covid and Ukraine.
    Occasionally some on the fringes attempt to blame these things on Brexit. But these people are maniacs.

    I tend to disregard those who see no universes in which Brexit is a good thing, because they are clearly not thinking through all the possible futures. There is a highly plausible future, for example, in which the Euro goes to shit and the less attached we are to the EU the better. I think that future is quite likely.
    Now you might think, like kinabalu, that future probably won't happen. That would be fair enough. But to say there is no future in which Brexit was the right move is insane.
    Excellent post. I am an avid remainer, but I would really like to be proved wrong and I accept I could be. Even though I feel strongly it is unlikely I would really like it to be so.
    Thank you.
    Although I think my position is that I don't necessarily want to be proved right.
    There are two (non-exclusive) possible futures in which Brexit turns out to be the right decision:
    - Brexit turns out to be a good opportunity and the UK can grow more outside the EU.
    - Bremain would have turned out to be a bad option.

    I think the first is reasonably possible, but my vote for Leave was more based in expectation of the second. I think there is a lot which could go wrong with the EU. (The two most prominent ones being the Euro going to shit and the integration ratchet winding ever tighter).
    I don't really want to be proved right on this though!

    Leave/Remain was a really complex balancing act of imagining hundreds of different futures of Brexit and hundreds of different futures of Bremain, and coming to some sort of judgement of the likelihood of each. Even the really expensive analyses barely scratched the surface on this, tending to assume many things would not change, when in reality any change of circumstance causes people to make different decisions. And none of them assumed a global pandemic or the biggest European war in 75 years. It was impossible to know how it would turn out. There are futures in which Brexit > Bremain, and there are futures in which Bremain > Brexit. My judgement was that Bremain was the higher risk option - but I would be very happy with a future in which the risks I feared do not come to pass, and in which Britain and Europe co-operate and both continue to prosper and Brexit turns out not to have really mattered much either way.
    My position, which hasn't changed since 2016 ,is that Brexit was a big mistake for the UK given what it.wants to achieve as a country, but.we're not going back, so how are we going to live with our mistake? How.do we deal with the contradictions of Brexit?

    A key motivation of Brexit was to "take back control" but the loss of influence means we become much more of.a rule taker. Are people on board with that, because that's how it's going to be? Not sure about that.

    Another contradiction, coming to the fore.in recent weeks is a high immigration economy being the way forward.in a Brexit world when people voted Leave to reduce immigration.

    None of this is unexpected. Mistakes have consequences. At some point we have to accept those consequences and deal with them.
    Which country's population of more control over its decisions and its destiny - Switzerland or Austria?
    Which country is better able to control its immigration - Switzerland or Austria?

    Of course our decisions are limited by the framework of what the rest of the world decides. But it seems odd to suggest we are now more at the mercy of outside forces than we were.
    In practice we will be bound by rules set by others, mainly the EU but also others. As I mentioned I don't think people have accepted it yet but that's our destiny. The difference now is that we no longer have much influence over those rules.

    There is little difference between Switzerland and Austria in terms of control of immigration.

    While Switzerland may have a degree of independence from the EU while having a close relationship, the settled view across the EU is that this arrangement is a mistake. It will absolutely not be offered to the UK. A Swiss arrangement is as unlikely as the UK rejoining.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,240
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    viewcode said:

    So there'll be a settled view on Brexit good or bad in about 30-40 years. Whether it will be the right one is debatable

    Except not really.

    Before the vote, lot's of people said it be a bad thing, and bad things would happen.

    Since the vote, bad things have happened.

    The number of people who agree it's been a bad thing has monotonically risen since the event.

    There is no Universe in which it turns out not have been a bad thing.

    Yet still the cultists cling on...
    Yes, two bad things have happened since Brexit: covid and Ukraine.
    Occasionally some on the fringes attempt to blame these things on Brexit. But these people are maniacs.

    I tend to disregard those who see no universes in which Brexit is a good thing, because they are clearly not thinking through all the possible futures. There is a highly plausible future, for example, in which the Euro goes to shit and the less attached we are to the EU the better. I think that future is quite likely.
    Now you might think, like kinabalu, that future probably won't happen. That would be fair enough. But to say there is no future in which Brexit was the right move is insane.
    Excellent post. I am an avid remainer, but I would really like to be proved wrong and I accept I could be. Even though I feel strongly it is unlikely I would really like it to be so.
    Thank you.
    Although I think my position is that I don't necessarily want to be proved right.
    There are two (non-exclusive) possible futures in which Brexit turns out to be the right decision:
    - Brexit turns out to be a good opportunity and the UK can grow more outside the EU.
    - Bremain would have turned out to be a bad option.

    I think the first is reasonably possible, but my vote for Leave was more based in expectation of the second. I think there is a lot which could go wrong with the EU. (The two most prominent ones being the Euro going to shit and the integration ratchet winding ever tighter).
    I don't really want to be proved right on this though!

    Leave/Remain was a really complex balancing act of imagining hundreds of different futures of Brexit and hundreds of different futures of Bremain, and coming to some sort of judgement of the likelihood of each. Even the really expensive analyses barely scratched the surface on this, tending to assume many things would not change, when in reality any change of circumstance causes people to make different decisions. And none of them assumed a global pandemic or the biggest European war in 75 years. It was impossible to know how it would turn out. There are futures in which Brexit > Bremain, and there are futures in which Bremain > Brexit. My judgement was that Bremain was the higher risk option - but I would be very happy with a future in which the risks I feared do not come to pass, and in which Britain and Europe co-operate and both continue to prosper and Brexit turns out not to have really mattered much either way.
    Absolute bollox thinking. Imagine that EU may have an issue some day, so throw yourself off a cliff now to avoid it, barking.
    Brexit was more like Indiana Jones diving under the descending stone door before it finally locked shut. If we hadn’t brexited in 2016 we would have become even further enmeshed in the EU and exit would have become impossibly painful. Even more painful than the Brexit we’ve had. That sense of Now or Never definitely affected my vote

    This painfulness is not by chance. Article 50 was expressly written (by a Brit!) to make secession from the EU deeply unattractive and punishing for any nation attempting it
    At the time I largely agreed with this argument. We weren't in the Euro, or Schengen, or with any desire for an EU army etc etc etc. Lots of talk of a twin-track or two-speed Europe, so if we're going to be propelled to the periphery anyway, better to do so under our own terms.

    Problem is that our own terms turned out to be batshit crazy. As I have said repeatedly, leaving the EU is not our problem, what the Tories have chosen to do after leaving the EU is the problem. Instead of negotiating an actual deal that actually works (like Switzerland), we self-imposed one-way trade barriers against ourselves. And had the numpties in government try and spin that as some kind of win.

    In October we have what the meat industry is openly describing as "hard Brexit". Once again we're about to self-impose big barriers on ourselves, choosing aggro over cooperation. Which will see a big spike in the price of most items containing meaty goodness. Well, ANOTHER big spike...
    I agree with much of this. And yes the Tories are at fault - especially TMay with her idiotic “red lines”
    The red lines - and so much of the negotiation that followed - was part of their culture wars which you seem to advocate. Yes it worked politically for them, with a massive turnout of non-voters in red wall shitholes like Thornaby to vote Tory to Get Brexit Done.

    The problem then is that we have people like Jonathan Gullis as MPs, who assume the electorate are as thick as they are. And for a while that may have been true as the Tories weaponised stupidity and kept insisting that the more we hurt ourselves the more the stick it to the EU.

    A few years further down the line and the game is up. People can see just how shit it is, morons like Gullis haven't got the memo and keep trying to spin failure as success, and the only last bastion for culture wars is the NatC conference.
    No they are - or they should be - entirely different things

    We can argue the culture wars another time, TMay’s failure was a failure of basic politics. She was a Remainer who felt she needed to appease hardline Leavers. She didn’t. Her stupid speech just boxed us in. She made multiple howling errors. Then she nearly lost to Corbyn. A truly terrible prime minister
    Other way round imo. Theresa May was a Leaver posing as a Remainer; she said even less than Jeremy Corbyn during the referendum debate. Boris was a Remainer posing as a Leaver.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,956
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    I don't think there is anything interesting in who the candidates are gonna be for the Dems and GOP. Only thing still up in the air, in my mind, is who does Trump pick for his VP? He won't have Pence again, whereas I would assume Biden will keep Kamala on the ticket, so it's the only real unknown.

    I would put some money on Kari Lake of Arizona - she lost her race, but she is a good communicator, the right kind of crazy for Trump, is a woman who would actually probably perform better against Kamala in a debate, and she has a history on TV. She has her own grievance narrative and stolen election claim (just dismissed by the courts), so she won't disagree with Trump publicly on that front (where other GOPers would). And whilst she didn't win Arizona, she might help make it more competitive in the GE.

    Any other contenders to consider?

    *swoon*
    A loon who has never held elected office - I can see her appeal to Trump.
    Not so sure about you.
    What? Leon's appeal to Trump.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688
    Nigelb said:

    I suggested at the time of his remarks that this would happen.

    E. Jean Carroll adds Trump’s CNN town hall remarks to defamation suit
    https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4016051-e-jean-carroll-adds-trumps-cnn-town-hall-to-defamation-suit/

    Trump really isn't clever. He'll keep making these problems for himself. No impulse control. He's not well, and I suspect he's never been well.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,025
    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    I voted for the bad answer - Leave, instead of the worse answer - Remain. And reluctantly I would do so again.

    The democratic deficit is worse.

    We still comply with EU regs but have no say in writing them.

    Sloooooooooooowwwwww hand clap
    A fair point. That's the problem of bad v worse. Good long tern statecraft is when in a democratic society the people have choices between alternative and convincing versions of good. That is the epic fail.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,997

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    I don't think there is anything interesting in who the candidates are gonna be for the Dems and GOP. Only thing still up in the air, in my mind, is who does Trump pick for his VP? He won't have Pence again, whereas I would assume Biden will keep Kamala on the ticket, so it's the only real unknown.

    I would put some money on Kari Lake of Arizona - she lost her race, but she is a good communicator, the right kind of crazy for Trump, is a woman who would actually probably perform better against Kamala in a debate, and she has a history on TV. She has her own grievance narrative and stolen election claim (just dismissed by the courts), so she won't disagree with Trump publicly on that front (where other GOPers would). And whilst she didn't win Arizona, she might help make it more competitive in the GE.

    Any other contenders to consider?

    *swoon*
    A loon who has never held elected office - I can see her appeal to Trump.
    Not so sure about you.
    What? Leon's appeal to Trump.
    He's never sued him, AFAIK. So there's that.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,263
    kinabalu said:

    I really do think an apology is in order. This would allow us all to move forward.

    Sorry you feel that way and I take full responsibility for my actions, even though they were inadvertant and beyond my control, if they even happened.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,997
    This small, eccentric group* have captured more territory in Russia in the space of a couple of days than Russia's armed forces have managed in several months around Bakhmut.

    Russian media report that "The village of Gorkovsky and the village of Shchetinovka in the Belgorod region came under the control of the Corps of Russian Volunteers"
    https://twitter.com/warinukraineua/status/1660967662841733120

    *The photos they've posted of themselves make them look more like LARPers than regular army.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688

    kinabalu said:

    I really do think an apology is in order. This would allow us all to move forward.

    Sorry you feel that way and I take full responsibility for my actions, even though they were inadvertant and beyond my control, if they even happened.
    I would apologise for any hurt feelings, but I generally aim for that so I won't.
    But the incident with the oranges, and the months of therapy that all those people on that bus needed. I apologise for that.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,984
    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi needs to find a way of sacking her that prevents a future leadership challenge.

    I wonder if he can revoke her security clearance...

    Tory ratings will dip further if the last vestiges of the coalition that won the 2019 election are swept away.

    We can't win with the whets in charge.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,879
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    X is the ability to elect and eject all the major politicians who govern us and an end to rule by Eurocrats and a stupid weird Parliament no one votes for or understands

    Before Brexit we could vote out Dan Hannan.

    Now we can't.

    he makes our laws for life.
    We've done this before Scott. That we cannot vote for the HoL is not a feature of Brexit.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,302
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    X is the ability to elect and eject all the major politicians who govern us and an end to rule by Eurocrats and a stupid weird Parliament no one votes for or understands

    Before Brexit we could vote out Dan Hannan.

    Now we can't.

    he makes our laws for life.
    We've done this before Scott. That we cannot vote for the HoL is not a feature of Brexit.
    That we can no longer vote out Dan Hannan is explicitly a product of Brexit.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,657
    edited May 2023

    kinabalu said:

    I really do think an apology is in order. This would allow us all to move forward.

    A recantation for Brexit?
    A walk of shame, pelted by excrement and turnips that have rotted in the field.
    I imagine they'd be doing us all a favour if it wasn't done naked.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Russian TV taking its cues from David Starkey

    I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…

    She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians


    https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/1660974545820430336
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,174
    148grss said:

    I don't think there is anything interesting in who the candidates are gonna be for the Dems and GOP. Only thing still up in the air, in my mind, is who does Trump pick for his VP? He won't have Pence again, whereas I would assume Biden will keep Kamala on the ticket, so it's the only real unknown.

    I would put some money on Kari Lake of Arizona - she lost her race, but she is a good communicator, the right kind of crazy for Trump, is a woman who would actually probably perform better against Kamala in a debate, and she has a history on TV. She has her own grievance narrative and stolen election claim (just dismissed by the courts), so she won't disagree with Trump publicly on that front (where other GOPers would). And whilst she didn't win Arizona, she might help make it more competitive in the GE.

    Any other contenders to consider?

    Tulsi Gabbard seems to be running for the job? Joins up the far end of the horseshoe with the paranoid-style left, who are pretty much the only remaining floating voters in a Trump vs Biden race. She destroyed Kamala Harris in a debate before, she could do it again.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    kinabalu said:

    I really do think an apology is in order. This would allow us all to move forward.

    From who and for what?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    X is the ability to elect and eject all the major politicians who govern us and an end to rule by Eurocrats and a stupid weird Parliament no one votes for or understands

    Before Brexit we could vote out Dan Hannan.

    Now we can't.

    he makes our laws for life.
    We've done this before Scott. That we cannot vote for the HoL is not a feature of Brexit.
    It's a feature that many who were in favour of Brexit are happy to ignore or even defend to the hilt, even when their reasons for supporting Brexit apply equally (better!) to HoL.
    It's useful evidence of hypocrisy, special pleading, or lies about the motivation for Brexit and therefore much more relevant that you'd wish.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,997

    kinabalu said:

    I really do think an apology is in order. This would allow us all to move forward.

    Sorry you feel that way and I take full responsibility for my actions, even though they were inadvertant and beyond my control, if they even happened.
    Are you not, however, still certain that "nothing untoward took place" ?
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,835
    Scott_xP said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    X is the ability to elect and eject all the major politicians who govern us and an end to rule by Eurocrats and a stupid weird Parliament no one votes for or understands

    Before Brexit we could vote out Dan Hannan.

    Now we can't.

    he makes our laws for life.
    We've done this before Scott. That we cannot vote for the HoL is not a feature of Brexit.
    That we can no longer vote out Dan Hannan is explicitly a product of Brexit.
    Not the best issue to raise. Imagine we had voted remain, Hannan is retired up to the House of Lords. You can no longer vote out Hannan. If only we had voted to leave...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,807
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi needs to find a way of sacking her that prevents a future leadership challenge.

    I wonder if he can revoke her security clearance...

    Tory ratings will dip further if the last vestiges of the coalition that won the 2019 election are swept away.

    We can't win with the whets in charge.
    Agree. You need purity to succeed that is why we need to bring back Jeremy. Starmer is a mere imitation of a Labour Party leader. Just one more push.

    We can't win with the moderates.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,621
    Nigelb said:

    This small, eccentric group* have captured more territory in Russia in the space of a couple of days than Russia's armed forces have managed in several months around Bakhmut.

    Russian media report that "The village of Gorkovsky and the village of Shchetinovka in the Belgorod region came under the control of the Corps of Russian Volunteers"
    https://twitter.com/warinukraineua/status/1660967662841733120

    *The photos they've posted of themselves make them look more like LARPers than regular army.

    Difficult to know exactly what to make of the varying accounts out there, but if I were to guess I’d say they’re Russians sympathetic to the Ukranian side, as opposed to Ukranians who have crossed the border into Belgorod.

    Just what Putin could do without though, a domestic uprising against the war, even if it’s confined to the border region for now.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,302

    Not the best issue to raise.

    It was Leon that raised it
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,914
    I have a sixth sense that a major figure will change his position on Brexit in a way that will shock British politics.

    No, not Michael Gove or Boris Johnson. I'm talking about Nick Clegg.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688

    Russian TV taking its cues from David Starkey

    I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…

    She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians


    https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/1660974545820430336

    We can start with it just being a racist trope and probably that's also a good place to stop because it's not much more complicated than that.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212

    kinabalu said:

    I really do think an apology is in order. This would allow us all to move forward.

    A recantation for Brexit?
    A walk of shame, pelted by excrement and turnips that have rotted in the field.
    I imagine they'd be doing us all a favour if it wasn't done naked.
    Nah.

    Soon every 23rd of June will become assault a Brexiteer day for their treason, a bit like The Purge.

    Brexiteers who recant will be exiled to the Rockall for 6 months for rehabilitation treatment.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    Nigelb said:

    This small, eccentric group* have captured more territory in Russia in the space of a couple of days than Russia's armed forces have managed in several months around Bakhmut.

    Russian media report that "The village of Gorkovsky and the village of Shchetinovka in the Belgorod region came under the control of the Corps of Russian Volunteers"
    https://twitter.com/warinukraineua/status/1660967662841733120

    *The photos they've posted of themselves make them look more like LARPers than regular army.

    Yeah, they are "eccentric" all right.

    https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1660772959621873664
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Farooq said:

    Russian TV taking its cues from David Starkey

    I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…

    She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians


    https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/1660974545820430336

    We can start with it just being a racist trope and probably that's also a good place to stop because it's not much more complicated than that.
    Nah, it is funny as fuck.

    Further proof that the Putinistas are tossers.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688

    Farooq said:

    Russian TV taking its cues from David Starkey

    I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…

    She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians


    https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/1660974545820430336

    We can start with it just being a racist trope and probably that's also a good place to stop because it's not much more complicated than that.
    Nah, it is funny as fuck.

    Further proof that the Putinistas are tossers.
    Trouble is, it's functionally the same as Boris's "part Kenyan, ancestral dislike of the UK" schtick about Obama. So it's not just Putinistas.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    edited May 2023
    Farooq said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    X is the ability to elect and eject all the major politicians who govern us and an end to rule by Eurocrats and a stupid weird Parliament no one votes for or understands

    Before Brexit we could vote out Dan Hannan.

    Now we can't.

    he makes our laws for life.
    We've done this before Scott. That we cannot vote for the HoL is not a feature of Brexit.
    It's a feature that many who were in favour of Brexit are happy to ignore or even defend to the hilt, even when their reasons for supporting Brexit apply equally (better!) to HoL.
    It's useful evidence of hypocrisy, special pleading, or lies about the motivation for Brexit and therefore much more relevant that you'd wish.
    Most people accept the inadequacies of HOL. The issue becomes if you scrap it how do you replace it with a second chamber that doesn't challenge the authority of HOC.

    That's why HOL has kept going since 1911. Working out what you replace it with isn't easy.

    The only consensus there's been is around getting rid of the hereditary peers and replacing them with appointees but even that's created it's own problems as it's gone from a House Of "Lords" to a House Of "Cronies".

    Constitutional reform is hard work...
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,403
    Chinese krill fishing boats have harmed endangered species near the South Orkney Islands

    One of the South Orkney Islands is called Shagnasty Island because when it was discovered it was covered in Blue Eyed Shag shit

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shagnasty_Island

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,621
    Interviewer: “So, can a woman have a penis?”

    Ed Davey: “Quite clearly”

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1660941354858422275
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Russian TV taking its cues from David Starkey

    I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…

    She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians


    https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/1660974545820430336

    We can start with it just being a racist trope and probably that's also a good place to stop because it's not much more complicated than that.
    Nah, it is funny as fuck.

    Further proof that the Putinistas are tossers.
    Trouble is, it's functionally the same as Boris's "part Kenyan, ancestral dislike of the UK" schtick about Obama. So it's not just Putinistas.
    But Boris is a twat though.

    The proof is in the pudding.

    The UK, Scotland, and London are ruled by men whose antecedents came from India and Pakistan.

    I cannot recall any racist/Islamophobic riots/protests at this in the UK.

    The country is like, whatever, we'll judge them on their performance, not their skin colour.

    That makes me immensely proud to be British.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Rolf Harris has died.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Sandpit said:

    Interviewer: “So, can a woman have a penis?”

    Ed Davey: “Quite clearly”

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1660941354858422275

    You've never heard about hermaphrodites.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,835

    Rolf Harris has died.

    10 years ago he would have had the full BBC treatment - dominating the news with his death. Now - I suspect a footnote only.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,835
    Sandpit said:

    Interviewer: “So, can a woman have a penis?”

    Ed Davey: “Quite clearly”

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1660941354858422275

    Never has "The Life of Brian" seemed more prophetic.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212

    Rolf Harris has died.

    10 years ago he would have had the full BBC treatment - dominating the news with his death. Now - I suspect a footnote only.
    Got a notification from the BBC News App on alert.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,263
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    I really do think an apology is in order. This would allow us all to move forward.

    Sorry you feel that way and I take full responsibility for my actions, even though they were inadvertant and beyond my control, if they even happened.
    Are you not, however, still certain that "nothing untoward took place" ?
    I refer the honourable poster to my previous post. I would also like to point out that someoftheabove and alloftheabove did something similarish, if not quite as bad, back in 2006, and attention really should be switched onto them now.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,796
    Sandpit said:

    Interviewer: “So, can a woman have a penis?”

    Ed Davey: “Quite clearly”

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1660941354858422275

    Owls penises for everyone :smiley:
    Got to differentiate from Labour somehow...
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,375
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/23/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-truth-integrity

    Great piece by Peter Oborne on the dishonesty of Rishi Sunak, making a convincing case that he is just another casual liar in the Johnson mould. Have the Tories permanently entered the post-truth world in their thirst for power?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,997

    148grss said:

    I don't think there is anything interesting in who the candidates are gonna be for the Dems and GOP. Only thing still up in the air, in my mind, is who does Trump pick for his VP? He won't have Pence again, whereas I would assume Biden will keep Kamala on the ticket, so it's the only real unknown.

    I would put some money on Kari Lake of Arizona - she lost her race, but she is a good communicator, the right kind of crazy for Trump, is a woman who would actually probably perform better against Kamala in a debate, and she has a history on TV. She has her own grievance narrative and stolen election claim (just dismissed by the courts), so she won't disagree with Trump publicly on that front (where other GOPers would). And whilst she didn't win Arizona, she might help make it more competitive in the GE.

    Any other contenders to consider?

    Tulsi Gabbard seems to be running for the job? Joins up the far end of the horseshoe with the paranoid-style left, who are pretty much the only remaining floating voters in a Trump vs Biden race. She destroyed Kamala Harris in a debate before, she could do it again.
    The Republican contest is so weird that I wouldn't bet on the VP slot.

    It's either Trump - in which case it's a matter entirely of whim - or it's any one of half a dozen very different candidates, in which case the VP could be pretty well anyone.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,977
    edited May 2023
    Deleted. Posted down thread.

    Can you tell what is was, yet ?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    Sandpit said:

    Interviewer: “So, can a woman have a penis?”

    Ed Davey: “Quite clearly”

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1660941354858422275

    He lost "Mary's" vote there and then lol!
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,977

    Rolf Harris has died.

    10 years ago he would have had the full BBC treatment - dominating the news with his death. Now - I suspect a footnote only.
    He fell from grace. He had a glittering career.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Russian TV taking its cues from David Starkey

    I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…

    She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians


    https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/1660974545820430336

    We can start with it just being a racist trope and probably that's also a good place to stop because it's not much more complicated than that.
    Nah, it is funny as fuck.

    Further proof that the Putinistas are tossers.
    Trouble is, it's functionally the same as Boris's "part Kenyan, ancestral dislike of the UK" schtick about Obama. So it's not just Putinistas.
    But Boris is a twat though.

    The proof is in the pudding.

    The UK, Scotland, and London are ruled by men whose antecedents came from India and Pakistan.

    I cannot recall any racist/Islamophobic riots/protests at this in the UK.

    The country is like, whatever, we'll judge them on their performance, not their skin colour.

    That makes me immensely proud to be British.
    Sure. Me agreeing that Putinistas are racist and tacking Boris Johnson's similar comments on is a far cry from accusing Britain of being generally racist.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    I don't think there is anything interesting in who the candidates are gonna be for the Dems and GOP. Only thing still up in the air, in my mind, is who does Trump pick for his VP? He won't have Pence again, whereas I would assume Biden will keep Kamala on the ticket, so it's the only real unknown.

    I would put some money on Kari Lake of Arizona - she lost her race, but she is a good communicator, the right kind of crazy for Trump, is a woman who would actually probably perform better against Kamala in a debate, and she has a history on TV. She has her own grievance narrative and stolen election claim (just dismissed by the courts), so she won't disagree with Trump publicly on that front (where other GOPers would). And whilst she didn't win Arizona, she might help make it more competitive in the GE.

    Any other contenders to consider?

    Tulsi Gabbard seems to be running for the job? Joins up the far end of the horseshoe with the paranoid-style left, who are pretty much the only remaining floating voters in a Trump vs Biden race. She destroyed Kamala Harris in a debate before, she could do it again.
    The Republican contest is so weird that I wouldn't bet on the VP slot.

    It's either Trump - in which case it's a matter entirely of whim - or it's any one of half a dozen very different candidates, in which case the VP could be pretty well anyone.
    I avoid the VP betting markets.

    I couldn't tip more rubbish if you gave me a forklift truck when it comes to this market.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,621
    Taz said:

    Rolf Harris has died.

    10 years ago he would have had the full BBC treatment - dominating the news with his death. Now - I suspect a footnote only.
    He fell from grace. He had a glittering career.
    But it ended up Gary Glittering.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Russian TV taking its cues from David Starkey

    I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…

    She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians


    https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/1660974545820430336

    We can start with it just being a racist trope and probably that's also a good place to stop because it's not much more complicated than that.
    Nah, it is funny as fuck.

    Further proof that the Putinistas are tossers.
    Trouble is, it's functionally the same as Boris's "part Kenyan, ancestral dislike of the UK" schtick about Obama. So it's not just Putinistas.
    But Boris is a twat though.

    The proof is in the pudding.

    The UK, Scotland, and London are ruled by men whose antecedents came from India and Pakistan.

    I cannot recall any racist/Islamophobic riots/protests at this in the UK.

    The country is like, whatever, we'll judge them on their performance, not their skin colour.

    That makes me immensely proud to be British.
    Sure. Me agreeing that Putinistas are racist and tacking Boris Johnson's similar comments on is a far cry from accusing Britain of being generally racist.
    I think we're talking at cross purposes.

    If the Russians and their trolls try and use this argument in the UK they are going to get laughed at a lot.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,400

    I have a sixth sense that a major figure will change his position on Brexit in a way that will shock British politics.

    No, not Michael Gove or Boris Johnson. I'm talking about Nick Clegg.

    Nick Clegg describes (or described) himself as a Eurosceptic.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,997
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    This small, eccentric group* have captured more territory in Russia in the space of a couple of days than Russia's armed forces have managed in several months around Bakhmut.

    Russian media report that "The village of Gorkovsky and the village of Shchetinovka in the Belgorod region came under the control of the Corps of Russian Volunteers"
    https://twitter.com/warinukraineua/status/1660967662841733120

    *The photos they've posted of themselves make them look more like LARPers than regular army.

    Yeah, they are "eccentric" all right.

    https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1660772959621873664
    I see.
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/09/04/the-hardcore-russian-neo-nazi-group-that-calls-ukraine-home/

    Bunch of loons.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,263
    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    I don't think there is anything interesting in who the candidates are gonna be for the Dems and GOP. Only thing still up in the air, in my mind, is who does Trump pick for his VP? He won't have Pence again, whereas I would assume Biden will keep Kamala on the ticket, so it's the only real unknown.

    I would put some money on Kari Lake of Arizona - she lost her race, but she is a good communicator, the right kind of crazy for Trump, is a woman who would actually probably perform better against Kamala in a debate, and she has a history on TV. She has her own grievance narrative and stolen election claim (just dismissed by the courts), so she won't disagree with Trump publicly on that front (where other GOPers would). And whilst she didn't win Arizona, she might help make it more competitive in the GE.

    Any other contenders to consider?

    Tulsi Gabbard seems to be running for the job? Joins up the far end of the horseshoe with the paranoid-style left, who are pretty much the only remaining floating voters in a Trump vs Biden race. She destroyed Kamala Harris in a debate before, she could do it again.
    The Republican contest is so weird that I wouldn't bet on the VP slot.

    It's either Trump - in which case it's a matter entirely of whim - or it's any one of half a dozen very different candidates, in which case the VP could be pretty well anyone.
    Sounds like you should be looking at laying short prices rather than looking to avoid.....
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    edited May 2023
    In 2008 I convinced myself that John McCain would pick Joe Lieberman as his running mate.

    Thank God I didn't write thread headers in those days.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,621
    carnforth said:

    I have a sixth sense that a major figure will change his position on Brexit in a way that will shock British politics.

    No, not Michael Gove or Boris Johnson. I'm talking about Nick Clegg.

    Nick Clegg describes (or described) himself as a Eurosceptic.
    Clegg was all in favour of an in/out referendum on EU membership in 2010. It was even in the manifesto.
    “The European Union has evolved significantly since the last public vote on membership over thirty years ago. Liberal Democrats therefore remain committed to an in/out referendum the next time a British government signs up for fundamental change in the relationship between the UK and the EU.”
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Paging @ydoethur

    Sanjay Patel will step down as managing director of The Hundred after this year's tournament, and leave the England and Wales Cricket Board.

    Having joined the ECB in 2015, Patel has led the creation and development of the 100-ball competition since 2018.

    The Hundred began in 2021, with the third edition of the tournament due to start on 1 August.

    "Once we've completed the third season, the time will be right for me to look for a new adventure," said Patel.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/65682759
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,977
    In a "no shit, Sherlock" revelation, the BoE admit they have made errors in the fight against inflation.

    No problem guys, we are living with the impact of your ineptitude.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bank-of-england-admits-it-made-errors-in-uk-inflation-forecasts/ar-AA1byR73?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a922997141ff4546928dc8aa0153a315&ei=15
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,263

    Paging @ydoethur

    Sanjay Patel will step down as managing director of The Hundred after this year's tournament, and leave the England and Wales Cricket Board.

    Having joined the ECB in 2015, Patel has led the creation and development of the 100-ball competition since 2018.

    The Hundred began in 2021, with the third edition of the tournament due to start on 1 August.

    "Once we've completed the third season, the time will be right for me to look for a new adventure," said Patel.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/65682759

    Will he go for the "Eighty" or switch sports and go for the fast3 tennis sets or next goal wins footie?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,977
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Rolf Harris has died.

    10 years ago he would have had the full BBC treatment - dominating the news with his death. Now - I suspect a footnote only.
    He fell from grace. He had a glittering career.
    But it ended up Gary Glittering.
    That's the gag :wink:
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,835
    Taz said:

    In a "no shit, Sherlock" revelation, the BoE admit they have made errors in the fight against inflation.

    No problem guys, we are living with the impact of your ineptitude.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bank-of-england-admits-it-made-errors-in-uk-inflation-forecasts/ar-AA1byR73?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a922997141ff4546928dc8aa0153a315&ei=15

    And oddly the IMF have been found to have underestimated UK growth AGAIN. Its almost as if there was a systematic bias somewhere...

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-65669399

    And (trigger warning for the easily triggered):

    https://order-order.com/2023/05/23/imf-forecasts-uk-no-longer-heading-for-recession/
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,263

    In 2008 I convinced myself that John McCain would pick Joe Lieberman as his running mate.

    Thank God I didn't write thread headers in those days.

    Don't worry mistakes from that far back pale into insignifance nowadays.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,835

    Paging @ydoethur

    Sanjay Patel will step down as managing director of The Hundred after this year's tournament, and leave the England and Wales Cricket Board.

    Having joined the ECB in 2015, Patel has led the creation and development of the 100-ball competition since 2018.

    The Hundred began in 2021, with the third edition of the tournament due to start on 1 August.

    "Once we've completed the third season, the time will be right for me to look for a new adventure," said Patel.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/65682759

    Biggest shock is that they had a managing director. It was being managed???!!!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,621
    Taz said:

    In a "no shit, Sherlock" revelation, the BoE admit they have made errors in the fight against inflation.

    No problem guys, we are living with the impact of your ineptitude.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bank-of-england-admits-it-made-errors-in-uk-inflation-forecasts/ar-AA1byR73?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a922997141ff4546928dc8aa0153a315&ei=15

    Belatedly saying what we have all being saying here for at least a year, that they should have been at worst keeping up with the Fed, and at best running ahead of them with the rate rises. US inflation is now below 5%.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,212
    Ooh I think Daniel Levy is going to call me soon.

    Should I take the job at Spurs when I'm offered it?

    Tottenham hold talks with betting experts in bid to overhaul transfer policy

    Exclusive: Daniel Levy held talks with experts in a bid to emulate the success Brighton and Brentford have had in the transfer market


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/05/22/tottenham-hold-talks-with-betting-experts-transfer-market/
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,997

    Ooh I think Daniel Levy is going to call me soon.

    Should I take the job at Spurs when I'm offered it?

    Tottenham hold talks with betting experts in bid to overhaul transfer policy

    Exclusive: Daniel Levy held talks with experts in a bid to emulate the success Brighton and Brentford have had in the transfer market


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/05/22/tottenham-hold-talks-with-betting-experts-transfer-market/

    Sadly, he just read about your Lieberman tip.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    Cairo is transformed in attitude since I was last here (about 2012 after the Arab spring)

    Lots of confident young women sans hijabs. A sense of relaxed, liberal optimism. Islamism has been abjured. These young people want a freer, more western life

    The world gets better, elsewhere
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,897
    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    I don't think there is anything interesting in who the candidates are gonna be for the Dems and GOP. Only thing still up in the air, in my mind, is who does Trump pick for his VP? He won't have Pence again, whereas I would assume Biden will keep Kamala on the ticket, so it's the only real unknown.

    I would put some money on Kari Lake of Arizona - she lost her race, but she is a good communicator, the right kind of crazy for Trump, is a woman who would actually probably perform better against Kamala in a debate, and she has a history on TV. She has her own grievance narrative and stolen election claim (just dismissed by the courts), so she won't disagree with Trump publicly on that front (where other GOPers would). And whilst she didn't win Arizona, she might help make it more competitive in the GE.

    Any other contenders to consider?

    Tulsi Gabbard seems to be running for the job? Joins up the far end of the horseshoe with the paranoid-style left, who are pretty much the only remaining floating voters in a Trump vs Biden race. She destroyed Kamala Harris in a debate before, she could do it again.
    The Republican contest is so weird that I wouldn't bet on the VP slot.

    It's either Trump - in which case it's a matter entirely of whim - or it's any one of half a dozen very different candidates, in which case the VP could be pretty well anyone.
    Marjorie Taylor Greene is my bet :scream:
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,400
    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    I have a sixth sense that a major figure will change his position on Brexit in a way that will shock British politics.

    No, not Michael Gove or Boris Johnson. I'm talking about Nick Clegg.

    Nick Clegg describes (or described) himself as a Eurosceptic.
    Clegg was all in favour of an in/out referendum on EU membership in 2010. It was even in the manifesto.
    “The European Union has evolved significantly since the last public vote on membership over thirty years ago. Liberal Democrats therefore remain committed to an in/out referendum the next time a British government signs up for fundamental change in the relationship between the UK and the EU.”
    Indeed:

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080

    Rolf Harris has died.

    I've said it before but Rolf Harris was the one that really surprised me during the whole Savile/Yewtree episode.

    Like it was always obvious to everyone that Savile was a creep (though no one could have guessed just how appalling he was) but Harris never gave off that vibe... When I watched him as a kid in the 80's he just always seemed like a nice, kind uncle type figure.

    I guess that fact he was such a good actor for so many years makes him one of the most evil celebratory predators of all...
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    GIN1138 said:

    Rolf Harris has died.

    I've said it before but Rolf Harris was the one that really surprised me during the whole Savile/Yewtree episode.

    Like it was always obvious to everyone that Savile was a creep (though no one could have guessed just how appalling he was) but Harris never gave off that vibe... When I watched him as a kid in the 80's he just always seemed like a nice, kind uncle type figure.

    I guess that fact he was such a good actor for so many years makes him one of the most evil celebratory predators of all...
    I got around to watching the TV documentary series The Jinx these last few days. About the multiple murderer Bob Durst who is slowly unmasked over 6 episodes

    It’s incredibly chilling to see him act so plausibly innocent even the TV guys believe him - at first

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,536
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    On the Rebublican side, they need to quickly work out who is the challenger to Trump, and whittle the field down as quickly as possible. This is where the betting value might lie. Someone mentioned Tim Scott upthread, who could come from nowhere as Obama did in 2008. You’ll probably need a few good value losers to pick the right person though!

    It might be good to have a thread on each of the other contenders, even if the header was just a link to their wikipedia page and a video of them arguing with someone.
    I might actually have a go at that in the next week or so, and submit it as a header...
    Please do.

  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,375
    carnforth said:

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    I have a sixth sense that a major figure will change his position on Brexit in a way that will shock British politics.

    No, not Michael Gove or Boris Johnson. I'm talking about Nick Clegg.

    Nick Clegg describes (or described) himself as a Eurosceptic.
    Clegg was all in favour of an in/out referendum on EU membership in 2010. It was even in the manifesto.
    “The European Union has evolved significantly since the last public vote on membership over thirty years ago. Liberal Democrats therefore remain committed to an in/out referendum the next time a British government signs up for fundamental change in the relationship between the UK and the EU.”
    Indeed:

    I thought that was one of those spoof offers from Viz at first. Like the decororative plate capturing a little bear's first wet dream. Similar vibe.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,997
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    This small, eccentric group* have captured more territory in Russia in the space of a couple of days than Russia's armed forces have managed in several months around Bakhmut.

    Russian media report that "The village of Gorkovsky and the village of Shchetinovka in the Belgorod region came under the control of the Corps of Russian Volunteers"
    https://twitter.com/warinukraineua/status/1660967662841733120

    *The photos they've posted of themselves make them look more like LARPers than regular army.

    Yeah, they are "eccentric" all right.

    https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1660772959621873664
    The leader, too.

    I just spoke to Denis Nikitin, leader of Russian Volunteer Corps. Chuckling at my questions about his unit's incursion into Russia, he said the operation in Belgorod "is still ongoing."
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1660971870663979012
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,136
    Taz said:

    In a "no shit, Sherlock" revelation, the BoE admit they have made errors in the fight against inflation.

    No problem guys, we are living with the impact of your ineptitude.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bank-of-england-admits-it-made-errors-in-uk-inflation-forecasts/ar-AA1byR73?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a922997141ff4546928dc8aa0153a315&ei=15

    Tommorow gives us April I think ?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,621
    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    On the Rebublican side, they need to quickly work out who is the challenger to Trump, and whittle the field down as quickly as possible. This is where the betting value might lie. Someone mentioned Tim Scott upthread, who could come from nowhere as Obama did in 2008. You’ll probably need a few good value losers to pick the right person though!

    It might be good to have a thread on each of the other contenders, even if the header was just a link to their wikipedia page and a video of them arguing with someone.
    I might actually have a go at that in the next week or so, and submit it as a header...
    Please do.

    Okay, I’ll have a go.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,149
    GIN1138 said:

    Rolf Harris has died.

    I've said it before but Rolf Harris was the one that really surprised me during the whole Savile/Yewtree episode.

    Like it was always obvious to everyone that Savile was a creep (though no one could have guessed just how appalling he was) but Harris never gave off that vibe... When I watched him as a kid in the 80's he just always seemed like a nice, kind uncle type figure.

    I guess that fact he was such a good actor for so many years makes him one of the most evil celebratory predators of all...
    I wrote a letter to Jim'll Fix It when I was about 7 years old.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,973
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rolf Harris has died.

    I've said it before but Rolf Harris was the one that really surprised me during the whole Savile/Yewtree episode.

    Like it was always obvious to everyone that Savile was a creep (though no one could have guessed just how appalling he was) but Harris never gave off that vibe... When I watched him as a kid in the 80's he just always seemed like a nice, kind uncle type figure.

    I guess that fact he was such a good actor for so many years makes him one of the most evil celebratory predators of all...
    I got around to watching the TV documentary series The Jinx these last few days. About the multiple murderer Bob Durst who is slowly unmasked over 6 episodes

    It’s incredibly chilling to see him act so plausibly innocent even the TV guys believe him - at first

    In my opinion the best “murder” documentary ever.
    It just keeps getting more and more bizarro.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,973
    Andy_JS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rolf Harris has died.

    I've said it before but Rolf Harris was the one that really surprised me during the whole Savile/Yewtree episode.

    Like it was always obvious to everyone that Savile was a creep (though no one could have guessed just how appalling he was) but Harris never gave off that vibe... When I watched him as a kid in the 80's he just always seemed like a nice, kind uncle type figure.

    I guess that fact he was such a good actor for so many years makes him one of the most evil celebratory predators of all...
    I wrote a letter to Jim'll Fix It when I was about 7 years old.
    Explains a lot.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080

    This thread has gone to meet its maker...

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,149

    Andy_JS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rolf Harris has died.

    I've said it before but Rolf Harris was the one that really surprised me during the whole Savile/Yewtree episode.

    Like it was always obvious to everyone that Savile was a creep (though no one could have guessed just how appalling he was) but Harris never gave off that vibe... When I watched him as a kid in the 80's he just always seemed like a nice, kind uncle type figure.

    I guess that fact he was such a good actor for so many years makes him one of the most evil celebratory predators of all...
    I wrote a letter to Jim'll Fix It when I was about 7 years old.
    Explains a lot.
    What do you mean?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,536
    edited May 2023
    Nigelb said:



    The leader, too.

    I just spoke to Denis Nikitin, leader of Russian Volunteer Corps. Chuckling at my questions about his unit's incursion into Russia, he said the operation in Belgorod "is still ongoing."
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1660971870663979012

    I read that as Dennis Norden. The images were...odd.

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,973
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rolf Harris has died.

    I've said it before but Rolf Harris was the one that really surprised me during the whole Savile/Yewtree episode.

    Like it was always obvious to everyone that Savile was a creep (though no one could have guessed just how appalling he was) but Harris never gave off that vibe... When I watched him as a kid in the 80's he just always seemed like a nice, kind uncle type figure.

    I guess that fact he was such a good actor for so many years makes him one of the most evil celebratory predators of all...
    I wrote a letter to Jim'll Fix It when I was about 7 years old.
    Explains a lot.
    What do you mean?
    A long history of being hoodwinked by eccentric frauds.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,924

    The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that it no longer expects Britain's economy will fall into a recession this year, upgrading forecasts that it published last month.

    The IMF said British gross domestic product was set to grow by 0.4% in 2023. In April, it forecast a contraction of 0.3%.

    https//www.reuters.com/world/uk/imf-says-uk-no-longer-heading-recession-2023-2023-05-23/

    Yet another failed forecast
    Yep, that is a pretty big revision. And, for what its worth, I don't think they have gone far enough. I reckon we will end up nearer 1%, provided that we can find resolutions to outstanding public sector strikes which cost us about 0.3% in Q1.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,441
    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    viewcode said:

    So there'll be a settled view on Brexit good or bad in about 30-40 years. Whether it will be the right one is debatable

    Except not really.

    Before the vote, lot's of people said it be a bad thing, and bad things would happen.

    Since the vote, bad things have happened.

    The number of people who agree it's been a bad thing has monotonically risen since the event.

    There is no Universe in which it turns out not have been a bad thing.

    Yet still the cultists cling on...
    Yes, two bad things have happened since Brexit: covid and Ukraine.
    Occasionally some on the fringes attempt to blame these things on Brexit. But these people are maniacs.

    I tend to disregard those who see no universes in which Brexit is a good thing, because they are clearly not thinking through all the possible futures. There is a highly plausible future, for example, in which the Euro goes to shit and the less attached we are to the EU the better. I think that future is quite likely.
    Now you might think, like kinabalu, that future probably won't happen. That would be fair enough. But to say there is no future in which Brexit was the right move is insane.
    Excellent post. I am an avid remainer, but I would really like to be proved wrong and I accept I could be. Even though I feel strongly it is unlikely I would really like it to be so.
    Thank you.
    Although I think my position is that I don't necessarily want to be proved right.
    There are two (non-exclusive) possible futures in which Brexit turns out to be the right decision:
    - Brexit turns out to be a good opportunity and the UK can grow more outside the EU.
    - Bremain would have turned out to be a bad option.

    I think the first is reasonably possible, but my vote for Leave was more based in expectation of the second. I think there is a lot which could go wrong with the EU. (The two most prominent ones being the Euro going to shit and the integration ratchet winding ever tighter).
    I don't really want to be proved right on this though!

    Leave/Remain was a really complex balancing act of imagining hundreds of different futures of Brexit and hundreds of different futures of Bremain, and coming to some sort of judgement of the likelihood of each. Even the really expensive analyses barely scratched the surface on this, tending to assume many things would not change, when in reality any change of circumstance causes people to make different decisions. And none of them assumed a global pandemic or the biggest European war in 75 years. It was impossible to know how it would turn out. There are futures in which Brexit > Bremain, and there are futures in which Bremain > Brexit. My judgement was that Bremain was the higher risk option - but I would be very happy with a future in which the risks I feared do not come to pass, and in which Britain and Europe co-operate and both continue to prosper and Brexit turns out not to have really mattered much either way.
    Absolute bollox thinking. Imagine that EU may have an issue some day, so throw yourself off a cliff now to avoid it, barking.
    Brexit was more like Indiana Jones diving under the descending stone door before it finally locked shut. If we hadn’t brexited in 2016 we would have become even further enmeshed in the EU and exit would have become impossibly painful. Even more painful than the Brexit we’ve had. That sense of Now or Never definitely affected my vote

    This painfulness is not by chance. Article 50 was expressly written (by a Brit!) to make secession from the EU deeply unattractive and punishing for any nation attempting it
    You had to be pretty blind or really stupid not to know it was going to be a big hurt for UK for some years at least if not forever , especially given we need to keep all teh standrads to trade with them without any benefits and having to bear all teh costs etc. So cutting off your nose to spite your face and just plain stupid.
    But you advocated a Yes vote in 2014 which would have seen Scotland instantly ejected from the EU. That didn’t bother you then, nor are you concerned by the practical problems of Scottish independence (“och we’ll be fine, worry about the currency later”)

    You are like the most quintessentially blasé brexiteer with an added dash of whisky flavoured wishful thinking
    Scotland would have been straight back into EU before the negotiations and split occurred in that event though and certainly after Brexit vote.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,914
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    viewcode said:

    So there'll be a settled view on Brexit good or bad in about 30-40 years. Whether it will be the right one is debatable

    Except not really.

    Before the vote, lot's of people said it be a bad thing, and bad things would happen.

    Since the vote, bad things have happened.

    The number of people who agree it's been a bad thing has monotonically risen since the event.

    There is no Universe in which it turns out not have been a bad thing.

    Yet still the cultists cling on...
    Yes, two bad things have happened since Brexit: covid and Ukraine.
    Occasionally some on the fringes attempt to blame these things on Brexit. But these people are maniacs.

    I tend to disregard those who see no universes in which Brexit is a good thing, because they are clearly not thinking through all the possible futures. There is a highly plausible future, for example, in which the Euro goes to shit and the less attached we are to the EU the better. I think that future is quite likely.
    Now you might think, like kinabalu, that future probably won't happen. That would be fair enough. But to say there is no future in which Brexit was the right move is insane.
    Excellent post. I am an avid remainer, but I would really like to be proved wrong and I accept I could be. Even though I feel strongly it is unlikely I would really like it to be so.
    Thank you.
    Although I think my position is that I don't necessarily want to be proved right.
    There are two (non-exclusive) possible futures in which Brexit turns out to be the right decision:
    - Brexit turns out to be a good opportunity and the UK can grow more outside the EU.
    - Bremain would have turned out to be a bad option.

    I think the first is reasonably possible, but my vote for Leave was more based in expectation of the second. I think there is a lot which could go wrong with the EU. (The two most prominent ones being the Euro going to shit and the integration ratchet winding ever tighter).
    I don't really want to be proved right on this though!

    Leave/Remain was a really complex balancing act of imagining hundreds of different futures of Brexit and hundreds of different futures of Bremain, and coming to some sort of judgement of the likelihood of each. Even the really expensive analyses barely scratched the surface on this, tending to assume many things would not change, when in reality any change of circumstance causes people to make different decisions. And none of them assumed a global pandemic or the biggest European war in 75 years. It was impossible to know how it would turn out. There are futures in which Brexit > Bremain, and there are futures in which Bremain > Brexit. My judgement was that Bremain was the higher risk option - but I would be very happy with a future in which the risks I feared do not come to pass, and in which Britain and Europe co-operate and both continue to prosper and Brexit turns out not to have really mattered much either way.
    Absolute bollox thinking. Imagine that EU may have an issue some day, so throw yourself off a cliff now to avoid it, barking.
    Brexit was more like Indiana Jones diving under the descending stone door before it finally locked shut. If we hadn’t brexited in 2016 we would have become even further enmeshed in the EU and exit would have become impossibly painful. Even more painful than the Brexit we’ve had. That sense of Now or Never definitely affected my vote

    This painfulness is not by chance. Article 50 was expressly written (by a Brit!) to make secession from the EU deeply unattractive and punishing for any nation attempting it
    You had to be pretty blind or really stupid not to know it was going to be a big hurt for UK for some years at least if not forever , especially given we need to keep all teh standrads to trade with them without any benefits and having to bear all teh costs etc. So cutting off your nose to spite your face and just plain stupid.
    But you advocated a Yes vote in 2014 which would have seen Scotland instantly ejected from the EU. That didn’t bother you then, nor are you concerned by the practical problems of Scottish independence (“och we’ll be fine, worry about the currency later”)

    You are like the most quintessentially blasé brexiteer with an added dash of whisky flavoured wishful thinking
    Scotland would have been straight back into EU before the negotiations and split occurred in that event though and certainly after Brexit vote.
    The rUK would have had a veto on admitting Scotland as an EU member state so it would have put Scotland in a weak negotiating position in terms of the UK divorce.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,441
    Cookie said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    viewcode said:

    So there'll be a settled view on Brexit good or bad in about 30-40 years. Whether it will be the right one is debatable

    Except not really.

    Before the vote, lot's of people said it be a bad thing, and bad things would happen.

    Since the vote, bad things have happened.

    The number of people who agree it's been a bad thing has monotonically risen since the event.

    There is no Universe in which it turns out not have been a bad thing.

    Yet still the cultists cling on...
    Yes, two bad things have happened since Brexit: covid and Ukraine.
    Occasionally some on the fringes attempt to blame these things on Brexit. But these people are maniacs.

    I tend to disregard those who see no universes in which Brexit is a good thing, because they are clearly not thinking through all the possible futures. There is a highly plausible future, for example, in which the Euro goes to shit and the less attached we are to the EU the better. I think that future is quite likely.
    Now you might think, like kinabalu, that future probably won't happen. That would be fair enough. But to say there is no future in which Brexit was the right move is insane.
    Excellent post. I am an avid remainer, but I would really like to be proved wrong and I accept I could be. Even though I feel strongly it is unlikely I would really like it to be so.
    Thank you.
    Although I think my position is that I don't necessarily want to be proved right.
    There are two (non-exclusive) possible futures in which Brexit turns out to be the right decision:
    - Brexit turns out to be a good opportunity and the UK can grow more outside the EU.
    - Bremain would have turned out to be a bad option.

    I think the first is reasonably possible, but my vote for Leave was more based in expectation of the second. I think there is a lot which could go wrong with the EU. (The two most prominent ones being the Euro going to shit and the integration ratchet winding ever tighter).
    I don't really want to be proved right on this though!

    Leave/Remain was a really complex balancing act of imagining hundreds of different futures of Brexit and hundreds of different futures of Bremain, and coming to some sort of judgement of the likelihood of each. Even the really expensive analyses barely scratched the surface on this, tending to assume many things would not change, when in reality any change of circumstance causes people to make different decisions. And none of them assumed a global pandemic or the biggest European war in 75 years. It was impossible to know how it would turn out. There are futures in which Brexit > Bremain, and there are futures in which Bremain > Brexit. My judgement was that Bremain was the higher risk option - but I would be very happy with a future in which the risks I feared do not come to pass, and in which Britain and Europe co-operate and both continue to prosper and Brexit turns out not to have really mattered much either way.
    Absolute bollox thinking. Imagine that EU may have an issue some day, so throw yourself off a cliff now to avoid it, barking.
    Brexit was more like Indiana Jones diving under the descending stone door before it finally locked shut. If we hadn’t brexited in 2016 we would have become even further enmeshed in the EU and exit would have become impossibly painful. Even more painful than the Brexit we’ve had. That sense of Now or Never definitely affected my vote

    This painfulness is not by chance. Article 50 was expressly written (by a Brit!) to make secession from the EU deeply unattractive and punishing for any nation attempting it
    You had to be pretty blind or really stupid not to know it was going to be a big hurt for UK for some years at least if not forever , especially given we need to keep all teh standrads to trade with them without any benefits and having to bear all teh costs etc. So cutting off your nose to spite your face and just plain stupid.
    Tbh, I thought you voted leave Malc?
    I wanted Scotland to remain in EU, the SNP liars said there would be new vote if UK left hence my saying Leave was a good option for Scotland. Unfortunately the SNP were a bunch of grifters so we got the worst of both worlds. I want independence and Scotland as part of Europe. So even if I had voted Leave it woudl have made no difference , we voted 62% to stay in Scotland but as ever our vote counts for nothing ever. Pointless voting anything in any UK election.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,441
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    This small, eccentric group* have captured more territory in Russia in the space of a couple of days than Russia's armed forces have managed in several months around Bakhmut.

    Russian media report that "The village of Gorkovsky and the village of Shchetinovka in the Belgorod region came under the control of the Corps of Russian Volunteers"
    https://twitter.com/warinukraineua/status/1660967662841733120

    *The photos they've posted of themselves make them look more like LARPers than regular army.

    Yeah, they are "eccentric" all right.

    https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1660772959621873664
    Cannot be worse than Russian army or Wagner for certain.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688

    FF43 said:

    An article from the year 2000 about suella fernandes, president of the cambridge university conservative association, who was accused of vote rigging and responded with a reassuring “you can’t prove anything”



    https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1660967887669010435

    Am I posting in an old thread?
    Every thread is exactly the same as all the others. I'm surprised you haven't noticed this before.
This discussion has been closed.