Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
I'm not sure that either side would ever want a Chinese on Chinese war.
I would love to see the re-unification of China - if it was free and democratic like Taiwan.
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
If Microsoft are pissed off, it was the right decision.
Nonsense - Microsoft are amazing - they brought us Flight Simulator - and I mean FS1 - it was amazing, I would also say that DOS was really good, and styled after an astonishgly good Apple original.
Microsoft do have a lot to answer for in things like Windows 2.0, or almost all the early Excel versions.
If Microsoft are pissed off, it was the right decision.
Nonsense - Microsoft are amazing - they brought us Flight Simulator - and I mean FS1 - it was amazing, I would also say that DOS was really good, and styled after an astonishgly good Apple original.
Microsoft do have a lot to answer for in things like Windows 2.0, or almost all the early Excel versions.
Any particular reason you included "2.0" or the words "almost" or "the early" in that last sentence?
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC
Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera
OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me
The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.
It’s going to end like Korea. In a muddy, stagnant armistice
Russia will hold on to crimea. Dunno about the Donbas
Both sides are exhausted and running out of energy, money and men
The status quo will then drag on for decades
Probably. If Ukraine can return to 2014 state of play I think western support then dries up, despite strong talk, as going beyond would probably be so much harder given how entrenched it is and it will be seen as time for a 'pause'
Hope to be proven wrong.
I think Ukraine have several major advantages in equipment and intelligence. The Russians have also caused massive damage to their forces with their last offensive which has achieved very little.
The main areas of uncertainty I have are on ammunition supply and the quality of the training for the new Ukrainian units.
There's a pretty good chance that the Ukrainians surprise everyone on the upside - again - and make major gains with their impending counteroffensive, which will hopefully encourage countries to provide further support to Ukraine so that they can finish the job.
But what is “finishing the job” against a nuclear armed power governed by a tyrant? Marching on Moscow?
Putin will not give up Crimea. I suspect that is the red line where he would seriously threaten tactical nukes or do a demo explosion over the Black Sea
That show The Diplomat was good on this. When your enemy has nukes there is a limit to what you can do. Simple as
Indeed. The PB Toy Soldiers are fans of tough talk like "finishing the job" and "doing everything it takes" – of course, when you ask them to clearly define what they mean it turns out they mean nothing much at all.
Ukraine's 1991 borders. Very clearly defined.
Including Crimea? Do you think that's realistic?
The equivalence drawn I am seeing is France giving up Bordeaux to China, if he wants Ukraine to consider giving up Crimea.
Crimea is absolutely realistic and will stay part of Ukraine. You can't reward invasions based on ethnic revanchism. Putin has lost his chance of keeping it by his bloody and genocidal war. It is Alsace-Lorraine to the Ukrainians now.
Alsace Lorraine led to WW1
No it didn't, Bosnia did.
I’m with Leon in this. First World War was follow up to Germany beating napoleon France in 1870 war, took France a while to sign UK and Russia up on their side, it made Germany conscious of losing the arms race so they dusted off a plan to go for it before the odds went against them.
A different outcome may have hinged on how quickly Germany could take Paris and French surrender in first month, and a war we think of as trenches for years was fluid in that first month, Germany not far from Paris.
I’m sure I read somewhere the smoking gun fact proving Leon’s and my argument, the Serb assassin had been trained and armed by France. But I can’t find it.
Crimea War was definitely result of naughty France stirring it.
You're both still wrong. The ultimate cause of WW1 were Austrian and German ambitions to expand their empires in Eastern Europe. Alsace Lorraine was - at most - a very minor part of that.
It was what persuaded France and Russia they had shared strategic aims, which was a different matter but that was a response to the causes, not one of them.
Can you tell us a bit more about Austrian and German ambitions to expand their empires in Eastern Europe?
Was this due to the influence German states and identity once had, and felt they were losing? I know Catherine the Great was German. Didn’t Germany supply a lot of Russian royals on a par as Greece supplied Egyptian Royalty?
Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC
Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera
OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me
The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.
It’s going to end like Korea. In a muddy, stagnant armistice
Russia will hold on to crimea. Dunno about the Donbas
Both sides are exhausted and running out of energy, money and men
The status quo will then drag on for decades
Probably. If Ukraine can return to 2014 state of play I think western support then dries up, despite strong talk, as going beyond would probably be so much harder given how entrenched it is and it will be seen as time for a 'pause'
Hope to be proven wrong.
I think Ukraine have several major advantages in equipment and intelligence. The Russians have also caused massive damage to their forces with their last offensive which has achieved very little.
The main areas of uncertainty I have are on ammunition supply and the quality of the training for the new Ukrainian units.
There's a pretty good chance that the Ukrainians surprise everyone on the upside - again - and make major gains with their impending counteroffensive, which will hopefully encourage countries to provide further support to Ukraine so that they can finish the job.
But what is “finishing the job” against a nuclear armed power governed by a tyrant? Marching on Moscow?
Putin will not give up Crimea. I suspect that is the red line where he would seriously threaten tactical nukes or do a demo explosion over the Black Sea
That show The Diplomat was good on this. When your enemy has nukes there is a limit to what you can do. Simple as
Indeed. The PB Toy Soldiers are fans of tough talk like "finishing the job" and "doing everything it takes" – of course, when you ask them to clearly define what they mean it turns out they mean nothing much at all.
Ukraine's 1991 borders. Very clearly defined.
Including Crimea? Do you think that's realistic?
The equivalence drawn I am seeing is France giving up Bordeaux to China, if he wants Ukraine to consider giving up Crimea.
Crimea is absolutely realistic and will stay part of Ukraine. You can't reward invasions based on ethnic revanchism. Putin has lost his chance of keeping it by his bloody and genocidal war. It is Alsace-Lorraine to the Ukrainians now.
Alsace Lorraine led to WW1
No it didn't, Bosnia did.
I’m with Leon in this. First World War was follow up to Germany beating napoleon France in 1870 war, took France a while to sign UK and Russia up on their side, it made Germany conscious of losing the arms race so they dusted off a plan to go for it before the odds went against them.
A different outcome may have hinged on how quickly Germany could take Paris and French surrender in first month, and a war we think of as trenches for years was fluid in that first month, Germany not far from Paris.
I’m sure I read somewhere the smoking gun fact proving Leon’s and my argument, the Serb assassin had been trained and armed by France. But I can’t find it.
Crimea War was definitely result of naughty France stirring it.
You're both still wrong. The ultimate cause of WW1 were Austrian and German ambitions to expand their empires in Eastern Europe. Alsace Lorraine was - at most - a very minor part of that.
It was what persuaded France and Russia they had shared strategic aims, which was a different matter but that was a response to the causes, not one of them.
Can you tell us a bit more about Austrian and German ambitions to expand their empires in Eastern Europe?
Was this due to the influence German states and identity once had, and felt they were losing? I know Catherine the Great was German. Didn’t Germany supply a lot of Russian royals on a par as Greece supplied Egyptian Royalty?
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Do you expect that Ukraine will send troops to support China in invading Taiwan?
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
If Microsoft are pissed off, it was the right decision.
Nonsense - Microsoft are amazing - they brought us Flight Simulator - and I mean FS1 - it was amazing, I would also say that DOS was really good, and styled after an astonishgly good Apple original.
Microsoft do have a lot to answer for in things like Windows 2.0, or almost all the early Excel versions.
Any particular reason you included "2.0" or the words "almost" or "the early" in that last sentence?
Well... Windows 2.0 was bad as I recall. Excel in it's first incarnation was 'wow.... crash', and then failed to improve for ages. (Lotus Symphony and 123)
It's a long time ago, and I may be misremembering.
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
I'm not sure that either side would ever want a Chinese on Chinese war.
The Chinese intention is to become so overwhelmingly dominant in the region - eg building the world’s biggest navy (which they have, and which grows apace) - the Taiwanese will peacefully agree to some kind of “unification”, rather than face a terrible war they would almost certainly lose
And the USA will not launch ICBMs to save Taiwan. The Chinese know that
Might work, might not. But I’d wager that’s what they’re aiming for. If that fails Beijing will go for a blockade before bombs
O/T, last two polls for the Democrat nomination have had RFK up to 19-21%.
He obviously won't win but that's a large progress from the 10-14% of a few weeks ago. While he's anti-vax, he is also anti-corporate establishment (see the argument breaking out at the moment over an American Prospect article saying Tucker Carlson had some good ideas).
I think Joe needs some of his diehard supporters on here who claim he's the most underrated President to get his numbers up...
A notably dim post as such supporters on PB are (typically) British and therefore can't get Joe's numbers up no matter how much we rate him. Duh!
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Thank you. I am appalled.
Supporting a One China policy doesn't mean you believe that Taiwan should be a part of China - "One China" has been the US policy since Nixon.
Personally, I think China will make a play for a northern resource area, rather than Taiwan. The west won't intervene, aside from tut-tutting, and it'd be easy for China to play the 'oppressed brothers' card.
I wouldn't be surprised if Zelensky mentioned that idea when he spoke to Xi Jinping.
It is worth reading Colin Thurbon 'The Amur River' on this.
He makes the point that, not only does China regarding much of the land in Siberia that was rightfully theirs but that Russia massacres large numbers of Chinese there which hasn't been forgotten.
It's also interesting that China has been building up its infrastructure to the border including links but Russia has done all it can to minimise the cross-boarding transportation capabilities.
If it wasn't for the nukes, and that China knows the USSR once proposed to the US that they should both nuke China, I wouldn't be surprised if Xi made a grab.
And yet China has settled its border disputes with Russia, unlike with its other neighbours.
In treaty form yes but then I take it you believe the Chinese adhere scrupulously to all treaty obligations.
O/T, last two polls for the Democrat nomination have had RFK up to 19-21%.
He obviously won't win but that's a large progress from the 10-14% of a few weeks ago. While he's anti-vax, he is also anti-corporate establishment (see the argument breaking out at the moment over an American Prospect article saying Tucker Carlson had some good ideas).
I think Joe needs some of his diehard supporters on here who claim he's the most underrated President to get his numbers up...
A notably dim post as such supporters on PB are (typically) British and therefore can't get Joe's numbers up no matter how much we rate him. Duh!
Betting on him, however, could affect the narrative.
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC
Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera
OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me
The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.
It’s going to end like Korea. In a muddy, stagnant armistice
Russia will hold on to crimea. Dunno about the Donbas
Both sides are exhausted and running out of energy, money and men
The status quo will then drag on for decades
Probably. If Ukraine can return to 2014 state of play I think western support then dries up, despite strong talk, as going beyond would probably be so much harder given how entrenched it is and it will be seen as time for a 'pause'
Hope to be proven wrong.
I think Ukraine have several major advantages in equipment and intelligence. The Russians have also caused massive damage to their forces with their last offensive which has achieved very little.
The main areas of uncertainty I have are on ammunition supply and the quality of the training for the new Ukrainian units.
There's a pretty good chance that the Ukrainians surprise everyone on the upside - again - and make major gains with their impending counteroffensive, which will hopefully encourage countries to provide further support to Ukraine so that they can finish the job.
But what is “finishing the job” against a nuclear armed power governed by a tyrant? Marching on Moscow?
Putin will not give up Crimea. I suspect that is the red line where he would seriously threaten tactical nukes or do a demo explosion over the Black Sea
That show The Diplomat was good on this. When your enemy has nukes there is a limit to what you can do. Simple as
Indeed. The PB Toy Soldiers are fans of tough talk like "finishing the job" and "doing everything it takes" – of course, when you ask them to clearly define what they mean it turns out they mean nothing much at all.
Ukraine's 1991 borders. Very clearly defined.
I don't know anything about Russia but every single person I've listened to who does tells me that it ain't giving up Crimea. Just not happening. Now of course it's great to want world peace and an end to hunger but at some point reality must surely kick in.
Re Ukraine, China might well become pivotal as we approach the endgame
China does not want Russia to lose. It’s made that clear. The loss of Crimea would be Russia losing
Nor does China want a massively destabilised Russia along a 3000km border to its north. Russian defeat would ensure that instability too
So I suggest China would intervene to prevent Russia losing Crimea if it came to it. Providing arms and diplomatic pressure (and China has enormous trading leverage over half the world)
This is not the west v Putin. This is the west v Putin and Putin’s best friend, which is a superpower on a par with the USA, at least economically
"The loss of Crimea would be Russia losing"
Strategically, Russia has already lost. In my sitting-on-sofa and totally non-expert way, I'm now willing to call it. There's no way Russia comes out of this a stronger and stronkier country than it was before Putin started his madness. If their winter offensive had made progress; then there was a smidgen of a way for them to gain a limited strategic success. But not now; even if the Ukrainian offensive fails.
Russia is poorer financially; its military has been hollowed out. It has lost lots of friends and trading partners; and the trading partners it has got are definitely the senior partners in the trade. It's demographic problem has got *much* worse.
Losing Crimea would be a tiny strategic loss on top of the massive strategic loss it has already suffered, and one that is deepening every day.
And a reminder; we did not do this to Russia. Russia did it to itself.
I agree mostly, except that Crimea still is a pretty big strategic loss even on top of that.
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
Yes. Further.... The failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made an invasion of Taiwan less likely.
This is not just because of the example of a well armed smaller opponent defeating an invasion attempt and driving it back.
It is also, because Taiwan is an island, a defeat by the invading force would be unambiguous. If China tried and failed, you would have a lot of Chinese ships sunk, and any Chinese troops landed would be very likely to become prisoners of war.
So any such attempt that failed would be a massive, obvious and impossible-to-spin failure. Which would probably be terminal for the top of the Chinese government.
Personally, I think China will make a play for a northern resource area, rather than Taiwan. The west won't intervene, aside from tut-tutting, and it'd be easy for China to play the 'oppressed brothers' card.
I wouldn't be surprised if Zelensky mentioned that idea when he spoke to Xi Jinping.
It is worth reading Colin Thurbon 'The Amur River' on this.
He makes the point that, not only does China regarding much of the land in Siberia that was rightfully theirs but that Russia massacres large numbers of Chinese there which hasn't been forgotten.
It's also interesting that China has been building up its infrastructure to the border including links but Russia has done all it can to minimise the cross-boarding transportation capabilities.
If it wasn't for the nukes, and that China knows the USSR once proposed to the US that they should both nuke China, I wouldn't be surprised if Xi made a grab.
And yet China has settled its border disputes with Russia, unlike with its other neighbours.
In treaty form yes but then I take it you believe the Chinese adhere scrupulously to all treaty obligations.
Hong Kong says hi.
The entire thrust of Chinese Foreign Policy since 1950 and especially since Deng’s reforms brought economic power, has been to avenge the “century of humiliation”, when the western powers carved up the Middle Kingdom and the Brits kindly supplied opium at quite reasonable rates
Retaking Hong Kong and Macau were part of that. China’s place at the top table is now unquestioned. By GDP at PPP it is the biggest nation on earth
The last piece left in the puzzle is Taiwan, it is also the most emotive and important. Xi is openly declaring his intention to re-absorb it, and given what China will do on the sly, it is worth noting what they blatantly admit. They will have Taiwan, some way or other
incidentally a friend opined to me the other day the theory that China manufactured Fentanyl and sent it into USA via the cartels as a deliberate revenge for the opium wars, to enslave the Americans on a terrible drug as the UK once enslaved the Chinese on opium
It struck me as quite a startling insight, and absolutely possible
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Thank you. I am appalled.
Supporting a One China policy doesn't mean you believe that Taiwan should be a part of China - "One China" has been the US policy since Nixon.
Well, I realise Zelensky is in a pretty difficult situation, but it's hardly an unequivocal statement of support for the sovereignty of small countries threatened by neighbouring large ones, is it?
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Everyone agrees on "One China". They just have different definitions of what that means.
Zelensky is clearly morally flexible though - afterall, he appears* to like Johnson**
*I know that is likely actually sincere and apparently with good reason. **Pro-Johnson Francophobes can insert 'Macron' here
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Thank you. I am appalled.
Supporting a One China policy doesn't mean you believe that Taiwan should be a part of China - "One China" has been the US policy since Nixon.
Well, I realise Zelensky is in a pretty difficult situation, but it's hardly an unequivocal statement of support for the sovereignty of small countries threatened by neighbouring large ones, is it?
The problem is that the legal status of Taiwan is ambiguous so it doesn't lend itself to a direct parallel with Ukraine.
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
I suspect Taiwan will be taking a good hard look at the Ukrainian marine stealth drones that they have developed. So much cheaper to have thousands than a couple of dozen manned subs.
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
Yes. Further.... The failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made an invasion of Taiwan less likely.
This is not just because of the example of a well armed smaller opponent defeating an invasion attempt and driving it back.
It is also, because Taiwan is an island, a defeat by the invading force would be unambiguous. If China tried and failed, you would have a lot of Chinese ships sunk, and any Chinese troops landed would be very likely to become prisoners of war.
So any such attempt that failed would be a massive, obvious and impossible-to-spin failure. Which would probably be terminal for the top of the Chinese government.
China will do anything to AVOID an actual invasion. Which would be hideous
It will try to do what it did to Hong Kong, with added aggression. Menace, blockade, bully, cajole, threaten, maybe cut off Taiwan’s internet and kidnap Taiwan’s mum
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Everyone agrees on "One China". They just have different definitions of what that means.
Zelensky is clearly morally flexible though - afterall, he appears* to like Johnson**
*I know that is likely actually sincere and apparently with good reason. **Pro-Johnson Francophobes can insert 'Macron' here
The US has a One China policy. The country that sends multiple aircraft carriers, which have nuclear weapons on board, casually round Taiwan, every time Beijing sabre rattles.
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
Yes. Further.... The failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made an invasion of Taiwan less likely.
This is not just because of the example of a well armed smaller opponent defeating an invasion attempt and driving it back.
It is also, because Taiwan is an island, a defeat by the invading force would be unambiguous. If China tried and failed, you would have a lot of Chinese ships sunk, and any Chinese troops landed would be very likely to become prisoners of war.
So any such attempt that failed would be a massive, obvious and impossible-to-spin failure. Which would probably be terminal for the top of the Chinese government.
China will do anything to AVOID an actual invasion. Which would be hideous
It will try to do what it did to Hong Kong, with added aggression. Menace, blockade, bully, cajole, threaten, maybe cut off Taiwan’s internet and kidnap Taiwan’s mum
But China had an unambiguous ownership of Hong Kong. We had a lease, the lease ended, we gave it back. We said "now play nice..." The Chinese said "nah...."
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Weak nations suck up to more powerful ones. Rule of nature.
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
Yes. Further.... The failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made an invasion of Taiwan less likely.
This is not just because of the example of a well armed smaller opponent defeating an invasion attempt and driving it back.
It is also, because Taiwan is an island, a defeat by the invading force would be unambiguous. If China tried and failed, you would have a lot of Chinese ships sunk, and any Chinese troops landed would be very likely to become prisoners of war.
So any such attempt that failed would be a massive, obvious and impossible-to-spin failure. Which would probably be terminal for the top of the Chinese government.
China will do anything to AVOID an actual invasion. Which would be hideous
It will try to do what it did to Hong Kong, with added aggression. Menace, blockade, bully, cajole, threaten, maybe cut off Taiwan’s internet and kidnap Taiwan’s mum
But China had an unambiguous ownership of Hong Kong. We had a lease, the lease ended, we gave it back. We said "now play nice..." The Chinese said "nah...."
They did play nice for many years. Xi has changed a lot of things.
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Thank you. I am appalled.
Supporting a One China policy doesn't mean you believe that Taiwan should be a part of China - "One China" has been the US policy since Nixon.
Well, I realise Zelensky is in a pretty difficult situation, but it's hardly an unequivocal statement of support for the sovereignty of small countries threatened by neighbouring large ones, is it?
The problem is that the legal status of Taiwan is ambiguous so it doesn't lend itself to a direct parallel with Ukraine.
That's fine. But if Ukraine thinks Taiwan's status is ambiguous, Ukraine can hardly expect other people to take an unambiguous stand on their behalf, can they?
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
Musk is a liar. If he says he has Aspergers, don't automatically believe him.
Remember, this is they guy who lied about his son dying in his arms.
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
I'm not sure that either side would ever want a Chinese on Chinese war.
The Chinese intention is to become so overwhelmingly dominant in the region - eg building the world’s biggest navy (which they have, and which grows apace) - the Taiwanese will peacefully agree to some kind of “unification”, rather than face a terrible war they would almost certainly lose
And the USA will not launch ICBMs to save Taiwan. The Chinese know that
Might work, might not. But I’d wager that’s what they’re aiming for. If that fails Beijing will go for a blockade before bombs
China could just follow the Russian way of war. Just flatten Taiwan with long range demolition, until it ceases to function as an economic unit. Works unless and until Taiwan gets nukes.
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
Yes. Further.... The failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made an invasion of Taiwan less likely.
This is not just because of the example of a well armed smaller opponent defeating an invasion attempt and driving it back.
It is also, because Taiwan is an island, a defeat by the invading force would be unambiguous. If China tried and failed, you would have a lot of Chinese ships sunk, and any Chinese troops landed would be very likely to become prisoners of war.
So any such attempt that failed would be a massive, obvious and impossible-to-spin failure. Which would probably be terminal for the top of the Chinese government.
China will do anything to AVOID an actual invasion. Which would be hideous
It will try to do what it did to Hong Kong, with added aggression. Menace, blockade, bully, cajole, threaten, maybe cut off Taiwan’s internet and kidnap Taiwan’s mum
Another issue is nukes. Taiwan has nuclear plants, some fuel reprocessing capabilities etc. They are very careful in their observance of the NPT, but everyone reckons that they would have the bomb in about 20 minutes if they felt like it. Much like Japan.
One of the US concerns (and reasons for backing Taiwan) is to keep it non-nuclear. If they felt the US support wavering, then that option would come up again.
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
Is that self confessed or self diagnosed? Big difference. One is just an excuse for being an arse.
I'm very happy for him to stick to rockets and cars and loops and such. Bonkers people can be useful. Trying to be funny on twitter he can leave to others.
Since you have moved on to more general topics, I have a question for all of you.
Could findings like these explain the reverse Flynn effect?
"The detrimental impacts are particularly profound for young people. A large study from New Zealand found that frequent use of marijuana during adolescence was linked to an average loss of six IQ points by mid-adulthood. A JAMA Internal Medicine analysis tracked more than 5,000 young adults for 25 years and reported that cumulative lifetime exposure of marijuana was correlated with worse memory." (Links omitted.) source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/25/marijuana-health-risk-april-20/
And, possibly, explain some of the odd decisions voters have been making in the US and elsewhere, in recent years?
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
I'm not sure that either side would ever want a Chinese on Chinese war.
The Chinese intention is to become so overwhelmingly dominant in the region - eg building the world’s biggest navy (which they have, and which grows apace) - the Taiwanese will peacefully agree to some kind of “unification”, rather than face a terrible war they would almost certainly lose
And the USA will not launch ICBMs to save Taiwan. The Chinese know that
Might work, might not. But I’d wager that’s what they’re aiming for. If that fails Beijing will go for a blockade before bombs
China could just follow the Russian way of war. Just flatten Taiwan with long range demolition, until it ceases to function as an economic unit. Works unless and until Taiwan gets nukes.
Taiwan would have nukes up and running within a very short time if that became the game.
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
Yes. Further.... The failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made an invasion of Taiwan less likely.
This is not just because of the example of a well armed smaller opponent defeating an invasion attempt and driving it back.
It is also, because Taiwan is an island, a defeat by the invading force would be unambiguous. If China tried and failed, you would have a lot of Chinese ships sunk, and any Chinese troops landed would be very likely to become prisoners of war.
So any such attempt that failed would be a massive, obvious and impossible-to-spin failure. Which would probably be terminal for the top of the Chinese government.
China will do anything to AVOID an actual invasion. Which would be hideous
It will try to do what it did to Hong Kong, with added aggression. Menace, blockade, bully, cajole, threaten, maybe cut off Taiwan’s internet and kidnap Taiwan’s mum
But China had an unambiguous ownership of Hong Kong. We had a lease, the lease ended, we gave it back. We said "now play nice..." The Chinese said "nah...."
They did play nice for many years. Xi has changed a lot of things.
"many years"? A moment when compared to China's history.
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Everyone agrees on "One China". They just have different definitions of what that means.
Zelensky is clearly morally flexible though - afterall, he appears* to like Johnson**
*I know that is likely actually sincere and apparently with good reason. **Pro-Johnson Francophobes can insert 'Macron' here
The US has a One China policy. The country that sends multiple aircraft carriers, which have nuclear weapons on board, casually round Taiwan, every time Beijing sabre rattles.
China now has a bigger navy than the USA, and the disparity in size is growing not shrinking
Soon America will not be able to send ships around Taiwan
“World's largest Army, Navy: How China has ramped up its defense capabilities”
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Thank you. I am appalled.
Supporting a One China policy doesn't mean you believe that Taiwan should be a part of China - "One China" has been the US policy since Nixon.
Well, I realise Zelensky is in a pretty difficult situation, but it's hardly an unequivocal statement of support for the sovereignty of small countries threatened by neighbouring large ones, is it?
The problem is that the legal status of Taiwan is ambiguous so it doesn't lend itself to a direct parallel with Ukraine.
That's fine. But if Ukraine thinks Taiwan's status is ambiguous, Ukraine can hardly expect other people to take an unambiguous stand on their behalf, can they?
Yes they can because that's the internationally recognised position. Ukraine is a fully sovereign state with borders that are officially recognised by every country that matters except Russia. Taiwan isn't. The One China policy is a piece of constructive ambiguity.
With reference to the "Sunak writes his own Excel spreadsheets" fandango, I am doing one for big client. I am a wee bit expensive to be doing this, but apparently there is nobody else or would take me as long to brief someone else with what they need building and how it needs to operate.
TBH its proving a nice place to hide. On Tuesday I found out that a former colleague who I sat next to for a couple of years from 2010 (my age) has died of cancer. 5 weeks from diagnosis to dead. Leaves wife & 2 kids. Another good mate's dad died abruptly yesterday. And my eldest has phoned, at hospital with his mum whose several years of failing health appears to be accelerating downhill very very fast.
So there is something comforting about building another monster spreadsheet of death. To hide away from the onrush of actual deaths which have made this week a bit sleep-disturbing.
On the subject of Taiwan, it bear repeating that it is dramatically harder to invade them than Ukraine.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
Yes. Further.... The failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made an invasion of Taiwan less likely.
This is not just because of the example of a well armed smaller opponent defeating an invasion attempt and driving it back.
It is also, because Taiwan is an island, a defeat by the invading force would be unambiguous. If China tried and failed, you would have a lot of Chinese ships sunk, and any Chinese troops landed would be very likely to become prisoners of war.
So any such attempt that failed would be a massive, obvious and impossible-to-spin failure. Which would probably be terminal for the top of the Chinese government.
China will do anything to AVOID an actual invasion. Which would be hideous
It will try to do what it did to Hong Kong, with added aggression. Menace, blockade, bully, cajole, threaten, maybe cut off Taiwan’s internet and kidnap Taiwan’s mum
Another issue is nukes. Taiwan has nuclear plants, some fuel reprocessing capabilities etc. They are very careful in their observance of the NPT, but everyone reckons that they would have the bomb in about 20 minutes if they felt like it. Much like Japan.
One of the US concerns (and reasons for backing Taiwan) is to keep it non-nuclear. If they felt the US support wavering, then that option would come up again.
The US has just signed a treaty with the South Koreans to keep them from pursuing nuclear weapons.
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Thank you. I am appalled.
Supporting a One China policy doesn't mean you believe that Taiwan should be a part of China - "One China" has been the US policy since Nixon.
Well, I realise Zelensky is in a pretty difficult situation, but it's hardly an unequivocal statement of support for the sovereignty of small countries threatened by neighbouring large ones, is it?
The problem is that the legal status of Taiwan is ambiguous so it doesn't lend itself to a direct parallel with Ukraine.
That's fine. But if Ukraine thinks Taiwan's status is ambiguous, Ukraine can hardly expect other people to take an unambiguous stand on their behalf, can they?
Yes they can because that's the internationally recognised position. Ukraine is a fully sovereign state with borders that are officially recognised by every country that matters except Russia. Taiwan isn't. The One China policy is a piece of constructive ambiguity.
Well, from now on I shall be constructively ambiguous myself. Fuck politicians who expect one law for themselves and something else for other people in a similar position.
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
Ooh lovely! Leon commences yet another autism debate by conflating ASD with sociopathy.
With reference to the "Sunak writes his own Excel spreadsheets" fandango, I am doing one for big client. I am a wee bit expensive to be doing this, but apparently there is nobody else or would take me as long to brief someone else with what they need building and how it needs to operate.
TBH its proving a nice place to hide. On Tuesday I found out that a former colleague who I sat next to for a couple of years from 2010 (my age) has died of cancer. 5 weeks from diagnosis to dead. Leaves wife & 2 kids. Another good mate's dad died abruptly yesterday. And my eldest has phoned, at hospital with his mum whose several years of failing health appears to be accelerating downhill very very fast.
So there is something comforting about building another monster spreadsheet of death. To hide away from the onrush of actual deaths which have made this week a bit sleep-disturbing.
Sorry to hear all that. Grim
That procession from cancer diagnosis to death in five weeks is terrifying. Jeez. We are none of us here very long, are we?
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
Ooh lovely! Leon commences yet another autism debate by conflating ASD with sociopathy.
No, I said he is deeply socially awkward. Which he is. Please stop putting words in my mouth
With reference to the "Sunak writes his own Excel spreadsheets" fandango, I am doing one for big client. I am a wee bit expensive to be doing this, but apparently there is nobody else or would take me as long to brief someone else with what they need building and how it needs to operate.
TBH its proving a nice place to hide. On Tuesday I found out that a former colleague who I sat next to for a couple of years from 2010 (my age) has died of cancer. 5 weeks from diagnosis to dead. Leaves wife & 2 kids. Another good mate's dad died abruptly yesterday. And my eldest has phoned, at hospital with his mum whose several years of failing health appears to be accelerating downhill very very fast.
So there is something comforting about building another monster spreadsheet of death. To hide away from the onrush of actual deaths which have made this week a bit sleep-disturbing.
So sorry to hear your news
Sometimes it is good to realise how fortunate we are, and as much as politics matter, life and its living should not be taken for granted
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Everyone agrees on "One China". They just have different definitions of what that means.
Zelensky is clearly morally flexible though - afterall, he appears* to like Johnson**
*I know that is likely actually sincere and apparently with good reason. **Pro-Johnson Francophobes can insert 'Macron' here
The US has a One China policy. The country that sends multiple aircraft carriers, which have nuclear weapons on board, casually round Taiwan, every time Beijing sabre rattles.
China now has a bigger navy than the USA, and the disparity in size is growing not shrinking
Soon America will not be able to send ships around Taiwan
“World's largest Army, Navy: How China has ramped up its defense capabilities”
Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC
Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera
OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me
The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.
It’s going to end like Korea. In a muddy, stagnant armistice
Russia will hold on to crimea. Dunno about the Donbas
Both sides are exhausted and running out of energy, money and men
The status quo will then drag on for decades
Probably. If Ukraine can return to 2014 state of play I think western support then dries up, despite strong talk, as going beyond would probably be so much harder given how entrenched it is and it will be seen as time for a 'pause'
Hope to be proven wrong.
I think Ukraine have several major advantages in equipment and intelligence. The Russians have also caused massive damage to their forces with their last offensive which has achieved very little.
The main areas of uncertainty I have are on ammunition supply and the quality of the training for the new Ukrainian units.
There's a pretty good chance that the Ukrainians surprise everyone on the upside - again - and make major gains with their impending counteroffensive, which will hopefully encourage countries to provide further support to Ukraine so that they can finish the job.
But what is “finishing the job” against a nuclear armed power governed by a tyrant? Marching on Moscow?
Putin will not give up Crimea. I suspect that is the red line where he would seriously threaten tactical nukes or do a demo explosion over the Black Sea
That show The Diplomat was good on this. When your enemy has nukes there is a limit to what you can do. Simple as
Indeed. The PB Toy Soldiers are fans of tough talk like "finishing the job" and "doing everything it takes" – of course, when you ask them to clearly define what they mean it turns out they mean nothing much at all.
Ukraine's 1991 borders. Very clearly defined.
Including Crimea? Do you think that's realistic?
The equivalence drawn I am seeing is France giving up Bordeaux to China, if he wants Ukraine to consider giving up Crimea.
Crimea is absolutely realistic and will stay part of Ukraine. You can't reward invasions based on ethnic revanchism. Putin has lost his chance of keeping it by his bloody and genocidal war. It is Alsace-Lorraine to the Ukrainians now.
Alsace Lorraine led to WW1
No it didn't, Bosnia did.
Some bloke shot an ostrich called Archie Duke and that led to WWI.
I thought someone shot Rio Ferdinand and that's what led to WW1
Someone shot a band that was touring in the area, and that’s what led to WWI.
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
Ooh lovely! Leon commences yet another autism debate by conflating ASD with sociopathy.
No, I said he is deeply socially awkward. Which he is. Please stop putting words in my mouth
Fake News.
You stated "he is self confessed Asperger's isn't he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme".
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
Ooh lovely! Leon commences yet another autism debate by conflating ASD with sociopathy.
No, I said he is deeply socially awkward. Which he is. Please stop putting words in my mouth
Fake News.
You stated "he is self confessed Asperger's isn't he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme".
Quoting back to people what they have actually said?
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
While Zelensky was slurping Xi's fragrant balls on the phone he said he was on board with the "One China" policy so he's resigned to it.
I'm genuinely interested in knowing whether that is true or not. Can you point me towards anywhere I can see confirmation of what you say?
Holy fucking shit. NEVER doubt the green t-shirt dialectic of the Beggar King.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Everyone agrees on "One China". They just have different definitions of what that means.
Zelensky is clearly morally flexible though - afterall, he appears* to like Johnson**
*I know that is likely actually sincere and apparently with good reason. **Pro-Johnson Francophobes can insert 'Macron' here
The US has a One China policy. The country that sends multiple aircraft carriers, which have nuclear weapons on board, casually round Taiwan, every time Beijing sabre rattles.
China now has a bigger navy than the USA, and the disparity in size is growing not shrinking
Soon America will not be able to send ships around Taiwan
“World's largest Army, Navy: How China has ramped up its defense capabilities”
The difference is that China is not - yet - trying to project global power with its enormous new navy, whereas America has to
So all that Chinese tonnage is focused on the near Pacific, especially in and around Taiwan and the S China Sea. That’s how it will be able to see off America in a regional dingdong. The USA cannot send its entire navy to help Taipei, China can send virtually all its ships to menace Taiwan when and where it wants
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
In his case Pancreatic Cancer. He must have been riddled with it before going to see the doctor. To be fair, not going to the doctor is what blokes do isn't it...
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
Ooh lovely! Leon commences yet another autism debate by conflating ASD with sociopathy.
No, I said he is deeply socially awkward. Which he is. Please stop putting words in my mouth
Fake News.
You stated "he is self confessed Asperger's isn't he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme".
Quoting back to people what they have actually said?
I would quote Blackadder with "Eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow you may contract a disgusting skin disease". But I have done rather too much eating drinking and being merry already.
5 fucking weeks. At least you wouldn't be given much time to worry about will I / won't I get through this. You won't.
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
In many respects, Musk is like a very bright child who's also a sociopath.
He is self confessed Asperger’s, isn’t he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
I don't blame him for the rocket. Trying to snow job the FAA was a dumb move, though. I hope they learned enough from the launch to make up for the extra delay before the next one.
Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit blaming Tesla's driverless technology for a fatal crash after the carmaker suggested his public statements about autopilot could have been deepfaked.
Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Evette D Pennypacker said she found Tesla's argument for why its billionaire chief executive should not testify “deeply troubling to the court”.
The company had argued that it could not vouch for the authenticity of videotaped interviews which show Mr Musk pushing its driver-assistance technology, saying it is possible some of them were digitally altered.
The judge wrote: “Their position is that because Mr Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deep fakes, his public statements are immune.
“In other words, Mr Musk, and others in his position, can simply say whatever they like in the public domain, then hide behind the potential for their recorded statements being a deep fake to avoid taking ownership of what they did actually say and do.”
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
I'm not sure that either side would ever want a Chinese on Chinese war.
The Chinese intention is to become so overwhelmingly dominant in the region - eg building the world’s biggest navy (which they have, and which grows apace) - the Taiwanese will peacefully agree to some kind of “unification”, rather than face a terrible war they would almost certainly lose
And the USA will not launch ICBMs to save Taiwan. The Chinese know that
Might work, might not. But I’d wager that’s what they’re aiming for. If that fails Beijing will go for a blockade before bombs
China could just follow the Russian way of war. Just flatten Taiwan with long range demolition, until it ceases to function as an economic unit. Works unless and until Taiwan gets nukes.
If they want a worldwide recession 10x the last one, sure. I'm not sure old Blood and Honey is up for that.
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
In his case Pancreatic Cancer. He must have been riddled with it before going to see the doctor. To be fair, not going to the doctor is what blokes do isn't it...
Surely everyone has known and/or heard of people being diagnosed and dying within weeks.
The author Iain Banks is an obvious example. He announced the diagnosis on 3 April 2013, and died on 9 June. RIP.
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
Anything (ie any cancer) you haven't noticed.
And Pancreatic is one of those that give very little notice. Hence the 7% 5 year survivability rate
Pancreatic cancer survivability rates haven't changed in 50 years. We have made huge strides in many other cancers but not that one.
We are burying my mother next week. She had pancreatic cancer and died 8 days after diagnosis. Another friend's dad also had it and he died 12 days from diagnosis,
Unfortunately, it is very aggressive and doesn't have clear symptoms. My mother was previously in hospital in October and they rechecked the old scan and that was clear.
Also, at the risk of enraging @Mexicanpete even further, I believe the fact he is Aspie, and talks about it openly, and yet manages to be one of the most successful entrepreneurs in history (despite his many failures) actually encourages other people with ASD
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
In his case Pancreatic Cancer. He must have been riddled with it before going to see the doctor. To be fair, not going to the doctor is what blokes do isn't it...
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
Anything (ie any cancer) you haven't noticed.
And Pancreatic is one of those that give very little notice. Hence the 7% 5 year survivability rate
Pancreatic cancer survivability rates haven't changed in 50 years. We have made huge strides in many other cancers but not that one.
We are burying my mother next week. She had pancreatic cancer and died 8 days after diagnosis. Another friend's dad also had it and he died 12 days from diagnosis,
Unfortunately, it is very aggressive and doesn't have clear symptoms. My mother was previously in hospital in October and they rechecked the old scan and that was clear.
My sympathies.
There are a number of cancers where the symptoms do not show up, unambiguously, until very late.
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
Anything (ie any cancer) you haven't noticed.
And Pancreatic is one of those that give very little notice. Hence the 7% 5 year survivability rate
Pancreatic cancer survivability rates haven't changed in 50 years. We have made huge strides in many other cancers but not that one.
We are burying my mother next week. She had pancreatic cancer and died 8 days after diagnosis. Another friend's dad also had it and he died 12 days from diagnosis,
Unfortunately, it is very aggressive and doesn't have clear symptoms. My mother was previously in hospital in October and they rechecked the old scan and that was clear.
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
Anything (ie any cancer) you haven't noticed.
And Pancreatic is one of those that give very little notice. Hence the 7% 5 year survivability rate
Pancreatic cancer survivability rates haven't changed in 50 years. We have made huge strides in many other cancers but not that one.
We are burying my mother next week. She had pancreatic cancer and died 8 days after diagnosis. Another friend's dad also had it and he died 12 days from diagnosis,
Unfortunately, it is very aggressive and doesn't have clear symptoms. My mother was previously in hospital in October and they rechecked the old scan and that was clear.
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
In his case Pancreatic Cancer. He must have been riddled with it before going to see the doctor. To be fair, not going to the doctor is what blokes do isn't it...
Surely everyone has known and/or heard of people being diagnosed and dying within weeks.
The author Iain Banks is an obvious example. He announced the diagnosis on 3 April 2013, and died on 9 June. RIP.
Not just pancreatic cancer - my late brother-in-law was diagnosed with bowel cancer and died just three weeks later. It had invaded his liver, he had few symptoms before that.
I am fed up with nerdy sociopaths, the clinically shy and the mathematically gifted self-diagnosing as being on the spectrum. Autism is serious and if you can cope independently in society you haven't got it. And as for Asperger's, we really should stop using terms and diseases that were redefined out what, over ten years ago now?
Russia is resource rich and cash/population poor. China may well be looking at northeast Russia and not crying too many tears if Russia looks, and is, very weak.
I've poured scorn on the idea of Russia using nuclear weapons to defend territory it has invaded, but if they weren't prepared to use them to defend their internationally recognised borders then there's not much point in having them.
For China, it might be an easier bet than Taiwan, especially in the long-term. Take lessons out of Putin's book and interfere in those areas politically (as some say they are already doing).
But yes, nukes are an issue. But Moscow are well aware that China is also nuclear-capable.
I hope China does neither Russia or Taiwan. Neither is good for the world.
But I reckon what's happened in the last 15 months makes a Taiwanese adventure from China less likely, as it's made the possibility and consequences of failure much more real.
China is absolutely dedicated to reclaiming Taiwan and I suspect that many taiwanese, deep down, are resigned to its happening eventually
I'm not sure that either side would ever want a Chinese on Chinese war.
The Chinese intention is to become so overwhelmingly dominant in the region - eg building the world’s biggest navy (which they have, and which grows apace) - the Taiwanese will peacefully agree to some kind of “unification”, rather than face a terrible war they would almost certainly lose
And the USA will not launch ICBMs to save Taiwan. The Chinese know that
Might work, might not. But I’d wager that’s what they’re aiming for. If that fails Beijing will go for a blockade before bombs
China could just follow the Russian way of war. Just flatten Taiwan with long range demolition, until it ceases to function as an economic unit. Works unless and until Taiwan gets nukes.
As an aside: "TSMC is the world’s largest chip maker and a vital supplier to the United States and other Western nations. It is by far the largest of Taiwan’s chipmakers, which together produce more than 90 percent of the world’s most high-tech chips, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association."
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
Anything (ie any cancer) you haven't noticed.
And Pancreatic is one of those that give very little notice. Hence the 7% 5 year survivability rate
Pancreatic cancer survivability rates haven't changed in 50 years. We have made huge strides in many other cancers but not that one.
We are burying my mother next week. She had pancreatic cancer and died 8 days after diagnosis. Another friend's dad also had it and he died 12 days from diagnosis,
Unfortunately, it is very aggressive and doesn't have clear symptoms. My mother was previously in hospital in October and they rechecked the old scan and that was clear.
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
Anything (ie any cancer) you haven't noticed.
And Pancreatic is one of those that give very little notice. Hence the 7% 5 year survivability rate
Pancreatic cancer survivability rates haven't changed in 50 years. We have made huge strides in many other cancers but not that one.
We are burying my mother next week. She had pancreatic cancer and died 8 days after diagnosis. Another friend's dad also had it and he died 12 days from diagnosis,
Unfortunately, it is very aggressive and doesn't have clear symptoms. My mother was previously in hospital in October and they rechecked the old scan and that was clear.
8 days. My God
I suppose the only good thing is that she didn't suffer for a prolonged period of time. And I'm pleased that we were there at the end.
Also, at the risk of enraging @Mexicanpete even further, I believe the fact he is Aspie, and talks about it openly, and yet manages to be one of the most successful entrepreneurs in history (despite his many failures) actually encourages other people with ASD
What kind of cancer kills you in five weeks, from initial diagnosis???
Fuckin ell
Anything (ie any cancer) you haven't noticed.
And Pancreatic is one of those that give very little notice. Hence the 7% 5 year survivability rate
Pancreatic cancer survivability rates haven't changed in 50 years. We have made huge strides in many other cancers but not that one.
We are burying my mother next week. She had pancreatic cancer and died 8 days after diagnosis. Another friend's dad also had it and he died 12 days from diagnosis,
Unfortunately, it is very aggressive and doesn't have clear symptoms. My mother was previously in hospital in October and they rechecked the old scan and that was clear.
8 days. My God
I suppose the only good thing is that she didn't suffer for a prolonged period of time. And I'm pleased that we were there at the end.
My sympathies
My Dad died about 3 weeks back and, in retrospect - tho it sounds daft - he was very lucky. 88 years old, a long rich vivid life, he got stage 3 lung cancer which have him 9 months to say goodbye etc. And it was largely pain free and he died lucid and at home, if you gotta go that’s about as good as it gets, unless you want to drive off a cliff in a stolen Ferrari etc
I am fed up with nerdy sociopaths, the clinically shy and the mathematically gifted self-diagnosing as being on the spectrum. Autism is serious and if you can cope independently in society you haven't got it. And as for Asperger's, we really should stop using terms and diseases that were redefined out what, over ten years ago now?
"If you can cope independently in society you haven't got it" - I'm really not sure this is true. I work with someone with autism and have worked with other autistic people in the past. They have all been a little odd - keep eye contact with you for too long, random outbursts of swearing, that sort of thing - but all have managed to hold down a job (particularly coding) and functioned independently. I accept all cases are different, but most that I have encountered manage perfectly well.
Comments
Microsoft do have a lot to answer for in things like Windows 2.0, or almost all the early Excel versions.
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/vidbulasya-telefonna-rozmova-prezidenta-ukrayini-z-golovoyu-82489
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine's unwavering position on adherence to the "One China" policy and thanked the President of the People’s Republic of China for China's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Was this due to the influence German states and identity once had, and felt they were losing? I know Catherine the Great was German. Didn’t Germany supply a lot of Russian royals on a par as Greece supplied Egyptian Royalty?
is a pretty fair summary of how by saying "One China", people means things such as
- There is one China
- This are multiple states which claim to be China but we are being diplomatic to the Mainland Chinese
- Taiwan in awesome
etc etc.
The section on how the US uses it as a fudge is rather good.
It's a long time ago, and I may be misremembering.
And the USA will not launch ICBMs to save Taiwan. The Chinese know that
Might work, might not. But I’d wager that’s what they’re aiming for. If that fails Beijing will go for a blockade before bombs
Hong Kong says hi.
For a start, they're an island. And the distance from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan* is a lot further than the distance from - say - England to France for D-Day. Plus, the obvious places where you could land troops are all on the far side of the island.
Plus, it's very hard to hide the build up for the world's largest ever amphibious invasion. Tens of thousands of ships would be required, and they would fill the ports nearest to Taiwan.
Taiwan is also pretty well armed. They have F16s, they have Dassault Mirages, they have their own indigenous fighter which is supposed to be pretty good. They are currently - in partnership with the French - building a fleet of submarines that could absolutely wreak havoc on any invading fleet.
And most of China's weapons - with the exception of the newest fighters - are based on Russian designs, that haven't held up too well in Ukraine.
My personal view is that China is unlikely to *invade* in the sense that Ukraine was invaded. That would be extremely difficult - really Ukraine x 10. I think it is much more likely that China would attempt to blockade Taiwan, and to use that to extract concessions.
* With the exception of Pingtan
This is not just because of the example of a well armed smaller opponent defeating an invasion attempt and driving it back.
It is also, because Taiwan is an island, a defeat by the invading force would be unambiguous. If China tried and failed, you would have a lot of Chinese ships sunk, and any Chinese troops landed would be very likely to become prisoners of war.
So any such attempt that failed would be a massive, obvious and impossible-to-spin failure. Which would probably be terminal for the top of the Chinese government.
Retaking Hong Kong and Macau were part of that. China’s place at the top table is now unquestioned. By GDP at PPP it is the biggest nation on earth
The last piece left in the puzzle is Taiwan, it is also the most emotive and important. Xi is openly declaring his intention to re-absorb it, and given what China will do on the sly, it is worth noting what they blatantly admit. They will have Taiwan, some way or other
incidentally a friend opined to me the other day the theory that China manufactured Fentanyl and sent it into USA via the cartels as a deliberate revenge for the opium wars, to enslave the Americans on a terrible drug as the UK once enslaved the Chinese on opium
It struck me as quite a startling insight, and absolutely possible
Zelensky is clearly morally flexible though - afterall, he appears* to like Johnson**
*I know that is likely actually sincere and apparently with good reason.
**Pro-Johnson Francophobes can insert 'Macron' here
Rumoured to be pancreatic cancer..
He made a fortune of allowing thickos to show how thick they really were. One could hardly believe the IQ count of some of the participants.
As for the rocket it is a bit rich to criticize him for thinking big then failing big. Thank God we have people like him, wiling to dream on a mighty scale. Otherwise humanity goes nowhere
It will try to do what it did to Hong Kong, with added aggression. Menace, blockade, bully, cajole, threaten, maybe cut off Taiwan’s internet and kidnap Taiwan’s mum
Remember, this is they guy who lied about his son dying in his arms.
One of the US concerns (and reasons for backing Taiwan) is to keep it non-nuclear. If they felt the US support wavering, then that option would come up again.
I'm very happy for him to stick to rockets and cars and loops and such. Bonkers people can be useful. Trying to be funny on twitter he can leave to others.
Could findings like these explain the reverse Flynn effect?
"The detrimental impacts are particularly profound for young people. A large study from New Zealand found that frequent use of marijuana during adolescence was linked to an average loss of six IQ points by mid-adulthood. A JAMA Internal Medicine analysis tracked more than 5,000 young adults for 25 years and reported that cumulative lifetime exposure of marijuana was correlated with worse memory."
(Links omitted.)
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/25/marijuana-health-risk-april-20/
And, possibly, explain some of the odd decisions voters have been making in the US and elsewhere, in recent years?
China now has a bigger navy than the USA, and the disparity in size is growing not shrinking
Soon America will not be able to send ships around Taiwan
“World's largest Army, Navy: How China has ramped up its defense capabilities”
Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/how-to/worlds-largest-army-navy-how-china-has-ramped-up-its-defense-capabilities/articleshow/98426138.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Taiwan
TBH its proving a nice place to hide. On Tuesday I found out that a former colleague who I sat next to for a couple of years from 2010 (my age) has died of cancer. 5 weeks from diagnosis to dead. Leaves wife & 2 kids. Another good mate's dad died abruptly yesterday. And my eldest has phoned, at hospital with his mum whose several years of failing health appears to be accelerating downhill very very fast.
So there is something comforting about building another monster spreadsheet of death. To hide away from the onrush of actual deaths which have made this week a bit sleep-disturbing.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_China
That procession from cancer diagnosis to death in five weeks is terrifying. Jeez. We are none of us here very long, are we?
Fuckin ell
Sometimes it is good to realise how fortunate we are, and as much as politics matter, life and its living should not be taken for granted
All the best
You stated "he is self confessed Asperger's isn't he? Highly functioning autistic, super bright but socially awkward in the extreme".
“Biden’s America is ceding control of the seas to Communist China
US naval power is in long-term decline, while Beijing is rapidly rearming”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2023/04/20/us-navy-shrinking-as-china-menaces-taiwan/
The difference is that China is not - yet - trying to project global power with its enormous new navy, whereas America has to
So all that Chinese tonnage is focused on the near Pacific, especially in and around Taiwan and the S China Sea. That’s how it will be able to see off America in a regional dingdong. The USA cannot send its entire navy to help Taipei, China can send virtually all its ships to menace Taiwan when and where it wants
"Case dismissed."
5 fucking weeks. At least you wouldn't be given much time to worry about will I / won't I get through this. You won't.
Trying to snow job the FAA was a dumb move, though. I hope they learned enough from the launch to make up for the extra delay before the next one.
They often end up looking like idiots themselves, as a result of this.
Speaking of lawyers and idiot clients:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/04/26/prince-harry-phone-hacking-claim-inconsistencies-judge/
“ A High Court judge has raised concerns over “inconsistencies” in the Duke of Sussex’s phone hacking claim against the publisher of The Sun....”
I'm not sure old Blood and Honey is up for that.
The author Iain Banks is an obvious example. He announced the diagnosis on 3 April 2013, and died on 9 June. RIP.
Unfortunately, it is very aggressive and doesn't have clear symptoms. My mother was previously in hospital in October and they rechecked the old scan and that was clear.
Also, at the risk of enraging @Mexicanpete even further, I believe the fact he is Aspie, and talks about it openly, and yet manages to be one of the most successful entrepreneurs in history (despite his many failures) actually encourages other people with ASD
“Elon Musk reveals he has Asperger's on Saturday Night Live” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57045770
Stroll on, Elon
There are a number of cancers where the symptoms do not show up, unambiguously, until very late.
A couple of my relatives etc..
I am fed up with nerdy sociopaths, the clinically shy and the mathematically gifted self-diagnosing as being on the spectrum. Autism is serious and if you can cope independently in society you haven't got it. And as for Asperger's, we really should stop using terms and diseases that were redefined out what, over ten years ago now?
Seems up for the fight.
https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1651555537191059456
"TSMC is the world’s largest chip maker and a vital supplier to the United States and other Western nations. It is by far the largest of Taiwan’s chipmakers, which together produce more than 90 percent of the world’s most high-tech chips, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association."
Your condenscention is alarming.
Blimey, we could do with a bit of that heat here; it's barely reached 10°C in Dorset today.
My Dad died about 3 weeks back and, in retrospect - tho it sounds daft - he was very lucky. 88 years old, a long rich vivid life, he got stage 3 lung cancer which have him 9 months to say goodbye etc. And it was largely pain free and he died lucid and at home, if you gotta go that’s about as good as it gets, unless you want to drive off a cliff in a stolen Ferrari etc
He ran in 2018 which was a non-Presidential year and 2024 is bound to be polarised. We also do not know who his opponent is.
I would not be putting money on Tester holding the seat but, if you can find the bet and believe this, then you can probably get good odds.