We could be heading for cross-over in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

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We could be heading for cross-over in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

By far the biggest loser when the SNP started to rise in the aftermath of the 2014 Indy referendum was Scottish Labour. This had been the traditional main party north of the border and indeed at the 2005 and 2010 elections came out with 41 of the 59 Westminster seats.

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MikeSmithson

Test

IanB2

The real first choice

IanB2

The SNP support is spread relatively evenly whereas Labour’s is (or was - the rise of the SNP has obscured how the Lab/Tory demographics may have shifted in Scotland) concentrated in the central belt. There’s a dangerous tipping point for the SNP and it’s at a higher level than you would think.

rcs1000

The problem the SNP has is that unionists are (somewhat) willing to vote tactically against them.

When they are on 45-50% of the Scottish vote share, that doesn't matter too much. But if they dip below 40% in the next election, they could lose an awful lot of seats: with Labour the big gainers, but with the Libdems and Conservatives both benefiting from their declines.

Sean_F

rcs1000 said:

The problem the SNP has is that unionists are (somewhat) willing to vote tactically against them.

When they are on 45-50% of the Scottish vote share, that doesn't matter too much. But if they dip below 40% in the next election, they could lose an awful lot of seats: with Labour the big gainers, but with the Libdems and Conservatives both benefiting from their declines.

Yes. The SNP vote is fairly evenly distribued across the country. If they dip to 30%, they could be down to a handful of seats.

The Conservative and Lib Dem votes are now very efficiently distributed. Labour's vote is becoming so. In rural, posh, and small town Scotland, Unionists will back the Conservatives and Lib Dems, in the Central Belt Labour.

rkrkrk

Yes, I've wondered about this. Seems crucial to lab majority hopes. What do Scottish posters think? Uniondivvie was very sceptical I think...

squareroot2

We need to see the SNP crushed for the good of the Union. Would 30pc in the polls mean that?

Nigelb

Trump who? Farage’s party cozies up to DeSantis as White House hopeful lands in UK
https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-new-party-ron-desantis-white-house-hopeful-land-uk/

Also meeting Badenoch and Cleverly.

pigeon

Opinion polling is one thing, actual voting is quite another. The enormous pro-independence vote hasn't gone away and it has nowhere else to go in a Westminster election. After all, Starmer is every bit as much in favour of telling them to take a running jump, both with respect to secession in principle and another referendum in practice, as Sunak is. He has to be. Any indulgence of Scottish nationalism will be instantly weaponised against him in England.

If Labour is ahead of the SNP a week before the GE then I might start to believe that it's significant. A year or more out? Not so much.

squareroot2

pigeon said:

Opinion polling is one thing, actual voting is quite another. The enormous pro-independence vote hasn't gone away and it has nowhere else to go in a Westminster election. After all, Starmer is every bit as much in favour of telling them to take a running jump, both with respect to secession in principle and another referendum in practice, as Sunak is. He has to be. Any indulgence of Scottish nationalism will be instantly weaponised against him in England.

If Labour is ahead of the SNP a week before the GE then I might start to believe that it's significant. A year or more out? Not so much.

You think the new SNP leader has the skill and talent to.overcome what has befallen the SNP..

felix

rkrkrk said:

Yes, I've wondered about this. Seems crucial to lab majority hopes. What do Scottish posters think? Uniondivvie was very sceptical I think...

One hates to agree with TUD but he's right to be sceptical. The most recent poll I think saw Labour down 2 points. The SNP issues aside, at least 40% support independence which makes a big drop on SNP support difficult to see. Plus any voters with a modicum of memory will recall that Labour Scotland wasn't known for its probity...

Ghedebrav

SKSFPE

Seriously though. The last month of SNP-geddon demonstrates neatly why we should always consider status quo bias when prognosticating and especially when staking money. Being seen to be ‘as bad as the rest of them’ will mortally wound the SNP, for a while at least. A parcel of rogues, indeed.

pigeon

squareroot2 said:

pigeon said:

Opinion polling is one thing, actual voting is quite another. The enormous pro-independence vote hasn't gone away and it has nowhere else to go in a Westminster election. After all, Starmer is every bit as much in favour of telling them to take a running jump, both with respect to secession in principle and another referendum in practice, as Sunak is. He has to be. Any indulgence of Scottish nationalism will be instantly weaponised against him in England.

If Labour is ahead of the SNP a week before the GE then I might start to believe that it's significant. A year or more out? Not so much.

You think the new SNP leader has the skill and talent to overcome what has befallen the SNP?

No. Moreover, given the degree of financial trouble in which the SNP now finds itself, the prospect of the entire party folding and its politicians having to found a clone to replace it shouldn't be discounted.

Regardless, either the SNP or its theoretical successor is liable to win the largest vote share, for the reason that I've just given. Besides, as @felix has just pointed out, it's hardly as if SLAB presided over a Golden Age when it was in charge.

pigeon

Ghedebrav said:

SKSFPE

Seriously though. The last month of SNP-geddon demonstrates neatly why we should always consider status quo bias when prognosticating and especially when staking money. Being seen to be ‘as bad as the rest of them’ will mortally wound the SNP, for a while at least. A parcel of rogues, indeed.

OTOH, 'they may be a bunch of shits, but they're our shits' is a powerful motivator for many voters. Explains the DUP and Sinn Fein rather neatly.

Jonathan

Ghedebrav said:

SKSFPE

Seriously though. The last month of SNP-geddon demonstrates neatly why we should always consider status quo bias when prognosticating and especially when staking money. Being seen to be ‘as bad as the rest of them’ will mortally wound the SNP, for a while at least. A parcel of rogues, indeed.

The SNP have been in too long, like the Tories at Westminster. After a while there is too much wallpaper, non dom status and campervans.

Ghedebrav

pigeon said:

Ghedebrav said:

SKSFPE

Seriously though. The last month of SNP-geddon demonstrates neatly why we should always consider status quo bias when prognosticating and especially when staking money. Being seen to be ‘as bad as the rest of them’ will mortally wound the SNP, for a while at least. A parcel of rogues, indeed.

OTOH, 'they may be a bunch of shits, but they're our shits' is a powerful motivator for many voters. Explains the DUP and Sinn Fein rather neatly.

Maybe, but NI is pretty exceptional in many ways. Political parties are more tribal shibboleths than political choices. I don’t think the SNP (or Plaid, for that matter) are at that level.

JosiasJessop

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

Sean_F

pigeon said:

Ghedebrav said:

SKSFPE

Seriously though. The last month of SNP-geddon demonstrates neatly why we should always consider status quo bias when prognosticating and especially when staking money. Being seen to be ‘as bad as the rest of them’ will mortally wound the SNP, for a while at least. A parcel of rogues, indeed.

OTOH, 'they may be a bunch of shits, but they're our shits' is a powerful motivator for many voters. Explains the DUP and Sinn Fein rather neatly.

In most societies, both the DUP and Sinn Fein would get the same level of support as Reform UK. It does not matter to their voters how venial, nasty, violent, they may be.

Scotland is a normal democracy, but there will be vast numbers of SNP voters who don't care how competent or honest the party is. They're "our sons of bitches." The problem for the SNP is not the lack of support, it's the distribution of their vote in Westminster constituencies. A drop of support to say, 35%, compared with Unionist tactical voting, would be very damaging for them.

Ghedebrav

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

Just peeked at Oddschecker (though tbf it’s still not Hill’s who have a market up) and he appears to be shortening at 10/11. AOC at 4/5. My impression is that the tragic earthquake has brought a lot of underlying discontent, particularly around graft.

It’s an interesting one. It’s easy to underestimate Turkey’s geopolitical importance. I might have a dig around into the non-Erdogan candidates; I know nothing about them.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1: so, two qualifying sessions and two races. Proper qualifying is Friday 2pm. Sprint qualifying and race both Saturday. Proper race on Sunday.

Ghedebrav

Sean_F said:

pigeon said:

Ghedebrav said:

SKSFPE

Seriously though. The last month of SNP-geddon demonstrates neatly why we should always consider status quo bias when prognosticating and especially when staking money. Being seen to be ‘as bad as the rest of them’ will mortally wound the SNP, for a while at least. A parcel of rogues, indeed.

OTOH, 'they may be a bunch of shits, but they're our shits' is a powerful motivator for many voters. Explains the DUP and Sinn Fein rather neatly.

In most societies, both the DUP and Sinn Fein would get the same level of support as Reform UK. It does not matter to their voters how venial, nasty, violent, they may be.

Scotland is a normal democracy, but there will be vast numbers of SNP voters who don't care how competent or honest the party is. They're "our sons of bitches." The problem for the SNP is not the lack of support, it's the distribution of their vote in Westminster constituencies. A drop of support to say, 35%, compared with Unionist tactical voting, would be very damaging for them.

A counter-example to the DUP/SF would be the Bloc Québécois from 2008 to 2011, where while they dropped a fair amount of actual votes, their vote efficiency fell through the floor.

Scott_xP

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

Twitter rumour yesterday was the unwellness began after a visit with some Russians

ydoethur

Scott_xP said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

Twitter rumour yesterday was the unwellness began after a visit with some Russians

If Putin has tried to poison Erdogan then he’s lost the plot even more spectacularly than I thought.

Casino_Royale

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

JosiasJessop

Ghedebrav said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

Just peeked at Oddschecker (though tbf it’s still not Hill’s who have a market up) and he appears to be shortening at 10/11. AOC at 4/5. My impression is that the tragic earthquake has brought a lot of underlying discontent, particularly around graft.

It’s an interesting one. It’s easy to underestimate Turkey’s geopolitical importance. I might have a dig around into the non-Erdogan candidates; I know nothing about them.

IANAE, but AIUI: there are two elections: a presidential one, and a parliamentary one. The presidential one is currently close between Erdogan (AKP) and Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP), who is a coalition candidate for the National Alliance (and leader of its biggest party)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Turkish_presidential_election

The parliamentary election looks closer, with AKP probably edging it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Turkish_parliamentary_election

In the local elections four years ago, the CHP captured four of the five largest population centres in Turkey, including both Istanbul and Ankara. Erdogan's support is strong in parts of the hinterland: the sort of area that just got hit by an earthquake whose death toll might have been worsened by (at best) government incompetence.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/42/2019_Mahalli_İdareler_Seçimleri_BB.png

ydoethur

So, headline on the BBC and doubtless of import to many on here:

Gambling white paper: Government to unveil shake-up of laws
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65249542

Ghedebrav

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

Stuartinromford

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

There's also the other big leakage when a party stuffs up big time; supporters who decide to stay at home on the day and see what's on the telly instead. Less traumatic than voting for the other side, and helped by activists being temporarily in unavailable.

See Conservatives in 1997, Labour in
2019.

ydoethur

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

The other risk of course is if the party does go bust it might be replaced not by one party but by several.

The SNP, like most nationalist parties, is a party whose members have very disparate views save in one way - they all want independence. If the SNP is no longer the premier vehicle for that, can you see Forbes and Yousaf trying to found a new party together?

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

The other risk of course is if the party does go bust it might be replaced not by one party but by several.

The SNP, like most nationalist parties, is a party whose members have very disparate views save in one way - they all want independence. If the SNP is no longer the premier vehicle for that, can you see Forbes and Yousaf trying to found a new party together?

Whatever else they were, Salmond and Sturgeon were remarkably talented politicians to expand their party despite the internal contradictions.

Not quite enough for ultimate success as it happens, but a remarkable achievement, even still.

Nigelb

pigeon said:

Opinion polling is one thing, actual voting is quite another. The enormous pro-independence vote hasn't gone away and it has nowhere else to go in a Westminster election. After all, Starmer is every bit as much in favour of telling them to take a running jump, both with respect to secession in principle and another referendum in practice, as Sunak is. He has to be. Any indulgence of Scottish nationalism will be instantly weaponised against him in England.

If Labour is ahead of the SNP a week before the GE then I might start to believe that it's significant. A year or more out? Not so much.

Nonetheless, in the Westminster elections, it's possible for the SNP to lose a large number of seats while maintaining a fairly high share if the vote.

There's not much sign of a serious decline in support for independence, but the next election is very awkwardly timed for a party with serious problems to sort out.

Foxy

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

SNP in Westminster is largely posturing. I am surprised that more Scots don't vote a split ticket.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

The other risk of course is if the party does go bust it might be replaced not by one party but by several.

The SNP, like most nationalist parties, is a party whose members have very disparate views save in one way - they all want independence. If the SNP is no longer the premier vehicle for that, can you see Forbes and Yousaf trying to found a new party together?

And of course there isn't quite the same FPTP imperative to keep parties together in Scottish electoral politics. A bust in the Westminster elections might still leave independence parties dominating Holyrood.

There's still be a strong motive to reunite, but it would be less then existential.

IanB2

Foxy said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

SNP in Westminster is largely posturing. I am surprised that more Scots don't vote a split ticket.

When you consider that the nationalists in N Ireland have been voting for years for MPs knowing that they won’t ever turn up, perhaps it’s not so surprising?

Sandpit

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

I’m supposed to be in Istanbul next week, hope it doesn’t all kick off while I’m there!

Does anyone have recommendations for places to see, apart from the hallowed ground where Steven Gerrard lifted the European Cup 18(!) years ago?

eek

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

I’m supposed to be in Istanbul next week, hope it doesn’t all kick off while I’m there!

Does anyone have recommendations for places to see, apart from the hallowed ground where Steven Gerrard lifted the European Cup 18(!) years ago?

Would need the Mrs to provide a list but the Basilica Cistern , Galatea tower and Chora are worth a visit.

bondegezou

Nigelb said:

Trump who? Farage’s party cozies up to DeSantis as White House hopeful lands in UK
https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-new-party-ron-desantis-white-house-hopeful-land-uk/

Also meeting Badenoch and Cleverly.

Well, that should be clear proof that Badenoch is unsuitable to lead the Conservative Party.

malcolmg

rkrkrk said:

Yes, I've wondered about this. Seems crucial to lab majority hopes. What do Scottish posters think? Uniondivvie was very sceptical I think...

I cannot see independence supporters going to the unionist parties, perhaps for Westminster as the MP's are useless and do nothing for Scotland so no-one gives a toss what party they are, Westminster will never do anything for Independence. People may decide to teach the SNP a lesson as per above as Westminster is akin to the EU elections were to UK. Come Holyrood all will vote for Independence.
On the other hand once a few of the wrong uns are jailed and their rubbish acolytes expunged , SNP may get back to what it once was. Be interesting to see when they run out of cash whether the SNP branches let them steal the £1M of branch money sitting in banks.

MarqueeMark

eek said:

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

I’m supposed to be in Istanbul next week, hope it doesn’t all kick off while I’m there!

Does anyone have recommendations for places to see, apart from the hallowed ground where Steven Gerrard lifted the European Cup 18(!) years ago?

Would need the Mrs to provide a list but the Basilica Cistern , Galatea tower and Chora are worth a visit.

Also, a day trip on a ferry from Istanbul to the Princes' Islands should provide a nice getaway if it does kick off!

Ghedebrav

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

I’m supposed to be in Istanbul next week, hope it doesn’t all kick off while I’m there!

Does anyone have recommendations for places to see, apart from the hallowed ground where Steven Gerrard lifted the European Cup 18(!) years ago?

The cistern (despite the odd-sounding name) is a must-see, as is the Blue Mosque - which I found even more impressive than The Hagia Sofia.

I’m fond of the old walls as well. Less obviously impressive, but generally quiet and one of those spots where, for reasons hard to put your finger on, you can really feel the history.

Allow for a bit of wandering time too. It’s a big, fascinating place.

Foxy

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

SNP in Westminster is largely posturing. I am surprised that more Scots don't vote a split ticket.

When you consider that the nationalists in N Ireland have been voting for years for MPs knowing that they won’t ever turn up, perhaps it’s not so surprising?

True. Even more astonishing is that they vote for politicians who won't turn up in Stormont either.

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

The other risk of course is if the party does go bust it might be replaced not by one party but by several.

The SNP, like most nationalist parties, is a party whose members have very disparate views save in one way - they all want independence. If the SNP is no longer the premier vehicle for that, can you see Forbes and Yousaf trying to found a new party together?

By then Useless will be at his correct skill level sweeping the streets. Who would want to be tied to the clown. As I say elsewhere and have done in past , people in Scotland would hardly be able to pick out a couple of MP's , they are nonentities in Scotland just seen as troughers in London wasting our money.

malcolmg

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

The Greens in Scotland are no use weirdo halfwits. You need to be mentally deranged to even consider voting for those creeps.

Foxy

Ghedebrav said:

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

I’m supposed to be in Istanbul next week, hope it doesn’t all kick off while I’m there!

Does anyone have recommendations for places to see, apart from the hallowed ground where Steven Gerrard lifted the European Cup 18(!) years ago?

The cistern (despite the odd-sounding name) is a must-see, as is the Blue Mosque - which I found even more impressive than The Hagia Sofia.

I’m fond of the old walls as well. Less obviously impressive, but generally quiet and one of those spots where, for reasons hard to put your finger on, you can really feel the history.

Allow for a bit of wandering time too. It’s a big, fascinating place.

Take the public ferry to Hydarpasa. You get great harbour views, and the Asian side is a funky hipster place full of interesting small speciality shops and restaurants. The trams and ferries are really good and easy to use.

I was there in previous election and the atmosphere could be a bit odd in the government area, but fine in Sultanhamet and Hydarpasa.

malcolmg

Ghedebrav said:

SKSFPE

Seriously though. The last month of SNP-geddon demonstrates neatly why we should always consider status quo bias when prognosticating and especially when staking money. Being seen to be ‘as bad as the rest of them’ will mortally wound the SNP, for a while at least. A parcel of rogues, indeed.

Just wishful thinking on here by Little Englanders.

Scott_xP

malcolmg said:

The Greens in Scotland are no use weirdo halfwits. You need to be mentally deranged to even consider voting for those creeps.

But as you just said upthread, "Indy" voters will vote for them

malcolmg

squareroot2 said:

pigeon said:

Opinion polling is one thing, actual voting is quite another. The enormous pro-independence vote hasn't gone away and it has nowhere else to go in a Westminster election. After all, Starmer is every bit as much in favour of telling them to take a running jump, both with respect to secession in principle and another referendum in practice, as Sunak is. He has to be. Any indulgence of Scottish nationalism will be instantly weaponised against him in England.

If Labour is ahead of the SNP a week before the GE then I might start to believe that it's significant. A year or more out? Not so much.

You think the new SNP leader has the skill and talent to.overcome what has befallen the SNP..

He si only there to be the fall guy as they hand out the sentences.

Sandpit

Thanks for all the Istanbul advice guys, now to find enough days off to go everywhere!

It’s been a long time, more than three years, of not exploring new places.

malcolmg

Scott_xP said:

malcolmg said:

The Greens in Scotland are no use weirdo halfwits. You need to be mentally deranged to even consider voting for those creeps.

But as you just said upthread, "Indy" voters will vote for them

Only mentally deranged ones given they care not a jot about independence. They want to fill their pockets and turn the country into a disaster area. They are nasty as well as thick.

Nigelb

malcolmg said:

Ghedebrav said:

SKSFPE

Seriously though. The last month of SNP-geddon demonstrates neatly why we should always consider status quo bias when prognosticating and especially when staking money. Being seen to be ‘as bad as the rest of them’ will mortally wound the SNP, for a while at least. A parcel of rogues, indeed.

Just wishful thinking on here by Little Englanders.

I thought you agreed about them being rogues, malcolm ?

Nigelb

Samsung Electronics logs worst quarter in 14 years amid memory chip glut
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=349878
The world's largest memory chip and smartphone maker reported operating profit of 640.2 billion won ($478 million) during the January-March period, falling 95 percent from the 14.12 trillion won it posted a year ago.

Its first-quarter net income came to 1.57 trillion won, down 86.1 percent from a year earlier. Sales fell 18 percent to 63.74 trillion won.

Samsung's Device Solution (DS) division, which oversees its chip business, posted a deficit of 4.58 trillion won, in its first financial loss in 14 years, with chip inventories growing significantly amid tapering global demand.

The last time Samsung saw its core unit making losses was the first quarter of 2009, when the world was emerging from the 2008 financial crisis...

Good for the inflation figures, at least.

Theuniondivvie

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

noneoftheabove

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

SNP in Westminster is largely posturing. I am surprised that more Scots don't vote a split ticket.

When you consider that the nationalists in N Ireland have been voting for years for MPs knowing that they won’t ever turn up, perhaps it’s not so surprising?

True. Even more astonishing is that they vote for politicians who won't turn up in Stormont either.

To be fair the performance of quite a few Westminster MPs would improve significantly if they did not turn up.

DavidL

Foxy said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

SNP in Westminster is largely posturing. I am surprised that more Scots don't vote a split ticket.

It’s posturing that currently brings in more than £1m a year in short money and pays for the maintenance and staffing of a lot of offices right across Scotland. Ironically, the SNP are quite dependent upon Westminster representation and money.
Losing half those seats would seriously weaken the SNP hegemony in Scotland itself.

Nigelb

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

How quickly do you think the SNP will sort itself out ?

(FWIW, I've made no bones about being relatively clueless about Scottish politics. But I can read the news.)

Theuniondivvie

Evil Huns slandering our noble diplomats.



https://twitter.com/gilesmacdonogh/status/1651476568575754242?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Sandpit

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

SNP in Westminster is largely posturing. I am surprised that more Scots don't vote a split ticket.

It’s posturing that currently brings in more than £1m a year in short money and pays for the maintenance and staffing of a lot of offices right across Scotland. Ironically, the SNP are quite dependent upon Westminster representation and money.
Losing half those seats would seriously weaken the SNP hegemony in Scotland itself.

I guess we find out in five weeks’ time, unless they can somehow get a set of audited accounts to the Electoral Commission before the end of May.

Must be several dozen staff covered by £100k a month, how many can they persuade to accept a voluntary furlough?

algarkirk

Have we seen this? Matt Goodwin is searching for crossover too


https://mattgoodwin.substack.com/p/is-the-tide-turning?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=858965&post_id=117436107&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

bigjohnowls

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

squareroot2

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

Difficult for anyone to focus on anything in Scotland when arrests are being made. Most will be wondering when Ms Sturgeon will be interviewed and how many prosecutions will result, If any, as a result of the investigations and the interviews.
Not sure claiming that its all about the SNP is helpful to.the SNP.

DavidL

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

It’s a fair point. The Tories in Scotland have done quite well, especially under Ruth Davidson, as the No to a second referendum party. Even I, who have some interest in these things, have little idea what else they wanted.
Labour, until now, hasn’t even had that clarity of message. If they are going to be putting Sarwar forward as a serious candidate for FM they have huge amounts of difficult thinking to do.
The Tories can pinch some of Kate Forbes ideas. Where does Scottish Labour even start?

Ghedebrav

malcolmg said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

The Greens in Scotland are no use weirdo halfwits. You need to be mentally deranged to even consider voting for those creeps.

Get of the f’n fence Malc ffs.

kamski

JosiasJessop said:

Ghedebrav said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

Just peeked at Oddschecker (though tbf it’s still not Hill’s who have a market up) and he appears to be shortening at 10/11. AOC at 4/5. My impression is that the tragic earthquake has brought a lot of underlying discontent, particularly around graft.

It’s an interesting one. It’s easy to underestimate Turkey’s geopolitical importance. I might have a dig around into the non-Erdogan candidates; I know nothing about them.

IANAE, but AIUI: there are two elections: a presidential one, and a parliamentary one. The presidential one is currently close between Erdogan (AKP) and Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP), who is a coalition candidate for the National Alliance (and leader of its biggest party)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Turkish_presidential_election

The parliamentary election looks closer, with AKP probably edging it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Turkish_parliamentary_election

In the local elections four years ago, the CHP captured four of the five largest population centres in Turkey, including both Istanbul and Ankara. Erdogan's support is strong in parts of the hinterland: the sort of area that just got hit by an earthquake whose death toll might have been worsened by (at best) government incompetence.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/42/2019_Mahalli_İdareler_Seçimleri_BB.png

Voting starts today for 3 million overseas voters (half of them in Germany). Erdoğan supporters are well-organised and well-funded here. Last time around he got a much higher percentage of the vote in Germany than in Turkey (65% vs 53% ish), although on a lower turnout. Campaigning for foreign elections is restricted in Germany in the weeks before the election (since the AKP stirred up trouble before the 2017 referendum), but there is evidence that the AKP is holding secret election events, sometimes through DITIB which has become a bit of an Erdoğan front organisation. Turkey also has secret agents working in Germany, and Turkish critics of Erdoğan sometime get beaten up and intimidated. It's a kind of mafia organisation, a bit like Putin.

DavidL

Ghedebrav said:

malcolmg said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

The Greens in Scotland are no use weirdo halfwits. You need to be mentally deranged to even consider voting for those creeps.

Get of the f’n fence Malc ffs.

On the contrary. Masterful understatement by the great man.

CarlottaVance

The UK is one of the least racist countries in the world, according to a massive new global study, with just 2% of Britons feeling uncomfortable about the idea of living next door to somebody of a different race. Asking whether someone would be happy living next to someone of a different race is one of the traditional ways that researchers measure racism. The data also shows that the British are amongst the most accepting countries in the world. In addition, the nation is among the highest-ranking for tolerance of gay people and immigrants



https://unherd.com/thepost/survey-uk-is-one-of-the-least-racist-countries-in-the-world/

Sean_F

malcolmg said:

Ghedebrav said:

Casino_Royale said:

I remain to be convinced that the SNP vote will be majorly depressed - it's a value/cultural vote.

What they may lose is a few percent of the softer vote. Not sure that will be enough to get down to the low 30s.

Probably more likely in a UK general that for the Scottish Parliament though.

It’s definitely so for a big core vote, but they could certainly leak a lot of their younger and leftist voters to the Greens, and the casual nats may be more animated by cost of living / get-the-Tories-out this time. The SNP hegemony is a relatively recent phenomenon too. Times change, as they themselves showed.

The risk, as pointed out above, is in vote efficiency, for which the SNP are in a peculiarly all-or-nothing balance. Not that I’d feel particularly bad for them losing a load of Westminster seats; they’ve been bizarrely over represented in the Commons on 3.9% of vote share (vs e.g. LDs with 3x the votes but less than a third of seats; Greens on 2.6% vote share but only a single MP etc.) add to that the greatly reduced caseload because of what their MSPs pick up and you have a fairly unsympathetic bloc.

The Greens in Scotland are no use weirdo halfwits. You need to be mentally deranged to even consider voting for those creeps.

The Greens in the rest of the UK are weirdo halfwits. You only have to visit Glastonbury or Totnes to see that.

Theuniondivvie

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

How quickly do you think the SNP will sort itself out ?

Dunno is the honest answer.
Whether by accident or design there seems to be a lot of evidence of various parts of the party not communicating with each other; an exercise in agreeing short & medium term aims and public positions might be useful. Whatever transpires with the legal situation it’s pretty clear that Peter Murrell is not the organisational and strategic genius he was bigged up to be. The politician that gave him his start by letting him run his constituency office and was happy for him to be SNP chief exec while he was FM must feel a bit of an eejit.

DavidL

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

Nigelb

Karaoke (or more correctly noraebang) on US state visit.

Unexpected moment at the state dinner when the president of South Korea sings “American Pie.”
https://twitter.com/jeffmason1/status/1651418886447693824

kle4

pigeon said:

Opinion polling is one thing, actual voting is quite another. The enormous pro-independence vote hasn't gone away and it has nowhere else to go in a Westminster election. After all, Starmer is every bit as much in favour of telling them to take a running jump, both with respect to secession in principle and another referendum in practice, as Sunak is. He has to be. Any indulgence of Scottish nationalism will be instantly weaponised against him in England.

If Labour is ahead of the SNP a week before the GE then I might start to believe that it's significant. A year or more out? Not so much.

I dont believe there will be crossover, but I do think they will be down, and 2017 shows that itself can still be quite dramatic. Reverse the Slab and Scon scores from then and it contributes to reducing how many they need to win off Con elsewhere.

DavidL

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

How quickly do you think the SNP will sort itself out ?

Dunno is the honest answer.
Whether by accident or design there seems to be a lot of evidence of various parts of the party not communicating with each other; an exercise in agreeing short & medium term aims and public positions might be useful. Whatever transpires with the legal situation it’s pretty clear that Peter Murrell is not the organisational and strategic genius he was bigged up to be. The politician that gave him his start by letting him run his constituency office and was happy for him to be SNP chief exec while he was FM must feel a bit of an eejit.

What about the one that married him?

Nigelb

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

Russia's too. They just have much larger stocks.

Fairliered

The question for Scottish unionists considering whether to tactically vote for a different unionist party is whether it is important enough to defeat the SNP candidate that they would risk a rival unionist party winning the seat and potentially denying their own party victory at the GE.

Leon

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

I’m supposed to be in Istanbul next week, hope it doesn’t all kick off while I’m there!

Does anyone have recommendations for places to see, apart from the hallowed ground where Steven Gerrard lifted the European Cup 18(!) years ago?

Get a boat to the Princes Islands in the bay. It’s a nice day out. Have a seafood lunch. Wander about. Feels a world away from the city but it’s only a 30 minute hop on a hydrofoil

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

How quickly do you think the SNP will sort itself out ?

Dunno is the honest answer.
Whether by accident or design there seems to be a lot of evidence of various parts of the party not communicating with each other; an exercise in agreeing short & medium term aims and public positions might be useful. Whatever transpires with the legal situation it’s pretty clear that Peter Murrell is not the organisational and strategic genius he was bigged up to be. The politician that gave him his start by letting him run his constituency office and was happy for him to be SNP chief exec while he was FM must feel a bit of an eejit.

What about the one that married him?

And kept him in place…..

DavidL

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

Russia's too. They just have much larger stocks.

The evidence seems to be that their replacement rate is much lower than Ukraine’s. But, as you say, their stocks of artillery shells in particular seem to be huge.

DavidL

Fairliered said:

The question for Scottish unionists considering whether to tactically vote for a different unionist party is whether it is important enough to defeat the SNP candidate that they would risk a rival unionist party winning the seat and potentially denying their own party victory at the GE.

QTWTAIY.

kle4

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

Yes, hard to know what's real talk and what is cover, but it seems plausible ammunition is not being supplied as much as needed despite efforts.

Then you have conflicting reports about worries the counter offensive won't achieve enough to keep encouraging the USA to maintain their level of support, vs the Russians tricking it as just throwing conscripts at the problem isnt working.

There's only a few broad areas that could be focused on and the Russians know something is coming but will that matter?

Russia has the backup of dragging it out as much as they can and cutting a deal I guess. Anything they hold in a ceasefire is never coming back.

CarlottaVance

*If* this is true - and it’s a big if, but that’s what Mr Harvie has apparently said - this is, erm, problematic. A lot of money has been spent, and will be wasted, by a delay that was said (by LS) to be inconceivable and yet was apparently (per PH) planned all along… 🤷‍♂️

https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1651372107014578176?s=20

Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie has said that Lorna Slater "recommended" the the bottle return scheme be delayed despite her telling Holyrood MSPs that "no one with any credibility" would extend the launch.

https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/patrick-harvie-makes-astonishing-claim-29817196

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

The UK is one of the least racist countries in the world, according to a massive new global study, with just 2% of Britons feeling uncomfortable about the idea of living next door to somebody of a different race. Asking whether someone would be happy living next to someone of a different race is one of the traditional ways that researchers measure racism. The data also shows that the British are amongst the most accepting countries in the world. In addition, the nation is among the highest-ranking for tolerance of gay people and immigrants



https://unherd.com/thepost/survey-uk-is-one-of-the-least-racist-countries-in-the-world/

When you dont even want to make eye contact with your neighbours its easy to not care what race they are.

Leon

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

It’s going to end like Korea. In a muddy, stagnant armistice

Russia will hold on to crimea. Dunno about the Donbas

Both sides are exhausted and running out of energy, money and men

The status quo will then drag on for decades

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

*If* this is true - and it’s a big if, but that’s what Mr Harvie has apparently said - this is, erm, problematic. A lot of money has been spent, and will be wasted, by a delay that was said (by LS) to be inconceivable and yet was apparently (per PH) planned all along… 🤷‍♂️

https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1651372107014578176?s=20

Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie has said that Lorna Slater "recommended" the the bottle return scheme be delayed despite her telling Holyrood MSPs that "no one with any credibility" would extend the launch.

https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/patrick-harvie-makes-astonishing-claim-29817196

I am really struggling to see the problem here. She said no one with any credibility. Where is the contradiction?

Theuniondivvie

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

How quickly do you think the SNP will sort itself out ?

Dunno is the honest answer.
Whether by accident or design there seems to be a lot of evidence of various parts of the party not communicating with each other; an exercise in agreeing short & medium term aims and public positions might be useful. Whatever transpires with the legal situation it’s pretty clear that Peter Murrell is not the organisational and strategic genius he was bigged up to be. The politician that gave him his start by letting him run his constituency office and was happy for him to be SNP chief exec while he was FM must feel a bit of an eejit.

What about the one that married him?

She’s not pinning all the blame for the SNP’s woes on him nor sniping from the sidelines from a party without an elected member to its name.

Taz

Junior Doctors appear to "back down" on their unreasonable demand for a 35% pay increase and are due to enter into discussions with the govt.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/junior-doctors-appear-to-back-down-on-unreasonable-35pc-pay-demand/ar-AA1aojMr?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=9fca092cf4f94968adff300c4805435c&ei=8

This is taking place as the NHS consultants are being balloted to see if they wish to go on strike. One of their main grievances in the consultative ballot was the lifetime allowance for pensions which Hunt, in a tax cut for the wealthiest, has rolled over on.

https://www.bma.org.uk/pay-and-contracts/pay/consultants-pay-scales/pay-scales-for-consultants-in-england

Dura_Ace

Theuniondivvie said:

Evil Huns slandering our noble diplomats.



https://twitter.com/gilesmacdonogh/status/1651476568575754242?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

tory members will be absolutely stoked if this is true.

DavidL

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

How quickly do you think the SNP will sort itself out ?

Dunno is the honest answer.
Whether by accident or design there seems to be a lot of evidence of various parts of the party not communicating with each other; an exercise in agreeing short & medium term aims and public positions might be useful. Whatever transpires with the legal situation it’s pretty clear that Peter Murrell is not the organisational and strategic genius he was bigged up to be. The politician that gave him his start by letting him run his constituency office and was happy for him to be SNP chief exec while he was FM must feel a bit of an eejit.

What about the one that married him?

She’s not pinning all the blame for the SNP’s woes on him nor sniping from the sidelines from a party without an elected member to its name.

Alba does have elected members albeit they were not elected as Alba.

Sandpit

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

Yes, hard to know what's real talk and what is cover, but it seems plausible ammunition is not being supplied as much as needed despite efforts.

Then you have conflicting reports about worries the counter offensive won't achieve enough to keep encouraging the USA to maintain their level of support, vs the Russians tricking it as just throwing conscripts at the problem isnt working.

There's only a few broad areas that could be focused on and the Russians know something is coming but will that matter?

Russia has the backup of dragging it out as much as they can and cutting a deal I guess. Anything they hold in a ceasefire is never coming back.

There’s an American factory currently churning out Soviet-spec tank rounds, I think they are 125mm rather than the NATO standard 155mm. The new NATO tanks will help a lot on the ammo side, as there’s plenty of stock of those around the place. As always, logistics is what wins land wars; getting the right ammo, fuel, and spares to the fighting vehicles needs a lot of effort.

There’s a lot of the usual ‘fog of war’ around information, but it does (hopefully) look like the Russians attempted a Spring Offensive last month and got nowhere, and the Ukranian counter-offensive is coming in the next week or two, for which the Russians are trying to re-supply. Russian has even suggested that a handful of their new T-14 tanks have made it off the Red Square parade ground after five years, and actually into service.

Theuniondivvie

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

How quickly do you think the SNP will sort itself out ?

Dunno is the honest answer.
Whether by accident or design there seems to be a lot of evidence of various parts of the party not communicating with each other; an exercise in agreeing short & medium term aims and public positions might be useful. Whatever transpires with the legal situation it’s pretty clear that Peter Murrell is not the organisational and strategic genius he was bigged up to be. The politician that gave him his start by letting him run his constituency office and was happy for him to be SNP chief exec while he was FM must feel a bit of an eejit.

What about the one that married him?

She’s not pinning all the blame for the SNP’s woes on him nor sniping from the sidelines from a party without an elected member to its name.

Alba does have elected members albeit they were not elected as Alba.

Hence the ‘to its name’.

Leon

Support for Indy might - and probably will - ebb away, once it becomes clear there is no obvious political route to Indy. And that is now becoming clear, with an obdurate Westminster and a collapsing SNP

It used to be thought support for Quebecois independence was solid and growing and bound to win in the end. Look at what actually happened after they lost their referendum

noneoftheabove

Theuniondivvie said:

Evil Huns slandering our noble diplomats.



https://twitter.com/gilesmacdonogh/status/1651476568575754242?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Beach towels first down on the runway?

twistedfirestopper3

.

Theuniondivvie said:

I hesitate to tiptoe into such a maelstrom of expertise, but I think the most notable thing about Scottish politics as evidenced here is that it’s still ALL about the SNP. There’s not the tiniest bit of interest in the educational policies of SLab or a SCon manifesto for health; that’s not helped by said parties (or sub branches) not much bothering their arses to develop such things but in a normal political system one would think there might be a vestigial curiosity regarding this. The media’s complete lack of interest in the position on trans issues of Unionist parties while neurotically fixating on the SNP in this area is just another symptom of this.

Lovely to see a Scotch subsample having such an effect on PB though.

It's proof of just how good Salmond and Sturgeon really were. If I think of Scottish politicians, I only really know SNP ones, I know a few of their policies and (thanks to PB) all of their scandals. Scots Labour/Libs/Tories? I know nothing about them.

Dura_Ace

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

I’m supposed to be in Istanbul next week, hope it doesn’t all kick off while I’m there!

Does anyone have recommendations for places to see, apart from the hallowed ground where Steven Gerrard lifted the European Cup 18(!) years ago?

There's an absolutely mental Midnight Club illegal street racing scene in Istanbul so rent something fast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVQyN9vFpCQ

Leon

CarlottaVance said:

The UK is one of the least racist countries in the world, according to a massive new global study, with just 2% of Britons feeling uncomfortable about the idea of living next door to somebody of a different race. Asking whether someone would be happy living next to someone of a different race is one of the traditional ways that researchers measure racism. The data also shows that the British are amongst the most accepting countries in the world. In addition, the nation is among the highest-ranking for tolerance of gay people and immigrants



https://unherd.com/thepost/survey-uk-is-one-of-the-least-racist-countries-in-the-world/

Polls have shown this for many years. Brits are just about the least racist, most tolerant people on earth. Live and let live. It’s what we do. And it’s one reason foreign people will cross sunny Europe to get to our rainy little island

That’s what makes the stance of the whining remainery guardianista left - ‘racist Brexity Britain’ - so utterly infuriating. It is an outright lie and provably wrong

Sandpit

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Turkish election news:

There are strong rumours overnight that Erdogan has been taken unwell, and that he has cancelled election rallies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-rallies-day-health-reasons-2023-04-26/

I’m supposed to be in Istanbul next week, hope it doesn’t all kick off while I’m there!

Does anyone have recommendations for places to see, apart from the hallowed ground where Steven Gerrard lifted the European Cup 18(!) years ago?

There's an absolutely mental Midnight Club illegal street racing scene in Istanbul so rent something fast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVQyN9vFpCQ

Those R35s don’t look like they’re very standard!

noneoftheabove

Leon said:

Support for Indy might - and probably will - ebb away, once it becomes clear there is no obvious political route to Indy. And that is now becoming clear, with an obdurate Westminster and a collapsing SNP

It used to be thought support for Quebecois independence was solid and growing and bound to win in the end. Look at what actually happened after they lost their referendum

Indy support will probably drop if Labour get in, or are widely perceived as very likely to get in too. Could be some spiral impact on the SNP vote. Oblivion in Westminster FPTP is plausible.

algarkirk

Leon said:

Support for Indy might - and probably will - ebb away, once it becomes clear there is no obvious political route to Indy. And that is now becoming clear, with an obdurate Westminster and a collapsing SNP

It used to be thought support for Quebecois independence was solid and growing and bound to win in the end. Look at what actually happened after they lost their referendum

Agree; except that Westminster has been far from obdurate. There was a referendum not long ago - granted by Westminster. In recent years there has never been the sort of support in Scotland for independence which would morally or politically come close to making the case for another so soon.

Though a truly obdurate Westminster would grant a ScotRef2 right now.

Pulpstar

Nigelb said:

Trump who? Farage’s party cozies up to DeSantis as White House hopeful lands in UK
https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-new-party-ron-desantis-white-house-hopeful-land-uk/

Also meeting Badenoch and Cleverly.

I expect to hear that both Trump and Desantis campaigns are both simultaneously dead and inevitable for the nomination every day and twice on Sundays between now and the election

Dura_Ace

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

Yes, hard to know what's real talk and what is cover, but it seems plausible ammunition is not being supplied as much as needed despite efforts.

Then you have conflicting reports about worries the counter offensive won't achieve enough to keep encouraging the USA to maintain their level of support, vs the Russians tricking it as just throwing conscripts at the problem isnt working.

There's only a few broad areas that could be focused on and the Russians know something is coming but will that matter?

Russia has the backup of dragging it out as much as they can and cutting a deal I guess. Anything they hold in a ceasefire is never coming back.

Russia's just trying to drag it out until the US election. If it's still a bloody stalement then Biden is going to get it from both ends. The Couch Cossacks who will say that Ukraine should have had B-2s and the Isolationists who will say what the fuck have we just spend $100bn on?

another_richard

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

Who needs capacity when 'we can trade for it'.

Likewise see energy, vaccine and PPE production.

Note that Hyufd, representing a large strand of Conservative thinking, thinks the UK economy should focus on finance and law.

DavidL

Dura_Ace said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ukraine running out of weapons and fears losing more territory - BBC

Ukraine getting upper hand on front line - Al Jazeera

OK think ones about Bakhmut and others about Kherson but looks like a long long War to me

The ammunition situation for Ukraine is getting critical and probably delaying their Spring offensive. The alarm bells were ringing a while ago and there has been some response, especially from the US, but the burn rate in modern warfare is beyond the west’s current capacity.

Yes, hard to know what's real talk and what is cover, but it seems plausible ammunition is not being supplied as much as needed despite efforts.

Then you have conflicting reports about worries the counter offensive won't achieve enough to keep encouraging the USA to maintain their level of support, vs the Russians tricking it as just throwing conscripts at the problem isnt working.

There's only a few broad areas that could be focused on and the Russians know something is coming but will that matter?

Russia has the backup of dragging it out as much as they can and cutting a deal I guess. Anything they hold in a ceasefire is never coming back.

Russia's just trying to drag it out until the US election. If it's still a bloody stalement then Biden is going to get it from both ends. The Couch Cossacks who will say that Ukraine should have had B-2s and the Isolationists who will say what the fuck have we just spend $100bn on?

The answer to the last one is surely destroying Russia as a military force capable of intervening anywhere at a cost of zero American lives.