So what will now happen in Scotland at the general election? – politicalbetting.com
So what will now happen in Scotland at the general election? – politicalbetting.com
The above is from the excellent Commons library report and analysis of the 2019 General Election and shows some of the charts in relation to Scotland.
Comments
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We really need some new Scottish polling.
EDIT: First, like ..... who knows?1 -
I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.6 -
Hopefully, an SNP implosion back to before 2015, and a return to more usual politics in Scotland. Some Labour MPs from the cities, some Tory MPs from the lowlands, and some Lib Dem MPs from the highlands.2
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I would expect a lot more Labour seats in Scotland at the GE but top dog is pushing it from a base of 1. I think they could well end up with a dozen or so but that would still leave the SNP with a plurality. The Tories may be able to pick up a couple, Angus and Gordon being amongst the better bets, but they will not improve much unless Yousless carries on as he has started with chaos, division and incompetence.
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I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.2 -
Yep, if the Tories lose 50 seats, they are gone.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
A Lab majority is a tough task, but that is where we are on current polling, even with the slight uptick.
Only a few weeks to go now to see a real vote.0 -
Independence as a driver of voting intention is not going away and the SNP, even if they have a bad election in 2024, are probably not heading back to sub 20%. That means a Labour party defending any majority in 2028/9 is likely to still be vulnerable in its
Scottish seats to small swings.
The SNP could have more bad days in the next few years, but they are not going away.3 -
Not in Scotland though. No local government voting this year.Foxy said:
Yep, if the Tories lose 50 seats, they are gone.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
A Lab majority is a tough task, but that is where we are on current polling, even with the slight uptick.
Only a few weeks to go now to see a real vote.1 -
A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?1 -
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!0 -
The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...1 -
Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question
The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".3 -
UK ‘strikingly unprepared’ for impacts of climate crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/29/uk-strikingly-unprepared-impacts-climate-crisis
This is an under appreciated political issue, separate from progress towards net zero.
It's very likely indeed that global temperatures will continue to rise for the next three decades, and that will require mitigations that have not been planned for.2 -
Dup. So.last yearBenpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.0 -
That the SNP went to 35 seats in 2017 demonstrates some of the extreme volatility. I think repeating that but with more Labour than Tory gains would be an excellent result in 2024.
For now, being a pessimist, I'm sticking with mid 40s.0 -
2019 saw a continuing squeeze from both SNP and Tory in Gordon, however the Nats and the Tories are much weaker than they were, so, depending on the boundaries I think the Lib Dems will clearly increase their vote substantially and could even sneak it from third place, as the Tories did in 2017.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?2 -
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.4 -
Even if the SNP is a busted flush, that does not mean a desire for independence is dead. It is too early to say how this will play out at a general election but it might mean independence-minded Scots voting SNP at a general election and other parties at Scottish elections, while unionist-minded Scots do the opposite.0
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Gods forbid people speculate on politics. As we all know, only those in or with deep connection to a place ever get things right about it.YBarddCwsc said:
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.1 -
Any seats for Alba?1
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I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...1 -
And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.Sandpit said:
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?0 -
I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.DavidL said:Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question
The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".
The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.
A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.0 -
Given they seem to be boycotting official parliamentary politics in NI because they are not in the lead I'd go back a bit more than one year.squareroot2 said:
Dup. So.last yearBenpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.0 -
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!0 -
Right ...Cicero said:
2019 saw a continuing squeeze from both SNP and Tory in Gordon, however the Nats and the Tories are much weaker than they were, so, depending on the boundaries I think the Lib Dems will clearly increase their vote substantially and could even sneak it from third place, as the Tories did in 2017.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...
I remember forecasts of prospects in mid-Wales from the Tallinn LibDem Focus Team proved to be completely inaccurate.0 -
You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!1 -
And apparently still determine sons of our policy, too.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
So utterly useless. As if that's news.1 -
Some of us have made decent money betting on Scottish politics.YBarddCwsc said:
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.
Pound for pound Scotland is my most profitable area of political betting.2 -
Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.Sandpit said:
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.6 -
Well, with 84,088 posts, you obviously feel no great restriction. My rule of thumb is:kle4 said:
Gods forbid people speculate on politics. As we all know, only those in or with deep connection to a place ever get things right about it.YBarddCwsc said:
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.
If total posts are between 25,000 to 50,000, then the poster's social life needs serious help.
If total posts exceed 50,000, then the poster needs serious help.0 -
So you mean that governments have been spending all your energy on trying to eliminate something they'd have been better off trying to mitigate?Nigelb said:UK ‘strikingly unprepared’ for impacts of climate crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/29/uk-strikingly-unprepared-impacts-climate-crisis
This is an under appreciated political issue, separate from progress towards net zero.
It's very likely indeed that global temperatures will continue to rise for the next three decades, and that will require mitigations that have not been planned for.
Well, there's surely no precedent for that.1 -
Dup. So.last yearBenpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
Anything is possible.. After all Scotland beat Spain last night.....DecrepiterJohnL said:Even if the SNP is a busted flush, that does not mean a desire for independence is dead. It is too early to say how this will play out at a general election but it might mean independence-minded Scots voting SNP at a general election and other parties at Scottish elections, while unionist-minded Scots do the opposite.
0 -
I think the SNP activists have made a choice that they prefer to be a "progressive", i.e. left wing party, rather than a national movement of both left and right. That more or less guarantees that voters who believe in liberal economics will have no reason to vote for them and businesses no reason to fund them, and equally voters who are left wing may choose to vote for an actual, "genuine", left wing party, i.e. Labour.
Independence as an issue has fallen in popularity, and the sense of the inevitability or even desirability of separation has fallen quite sharply (somewhat ironically, this seems to be a result of the negative impact of the Brexit separation).
The SNP was a political juggernaut, but a combination of bad judgement, an air of sleaze and real questions about the viability of independence seems set to give the party a significant knock back at the next GE, though FPTP might save several SNP MPs. Come the next Scottish Parliament elections however, the lack of funds and turmoil in the party´s organization, after the departure of Murell, not to mention growing personal and political divisions, as well as the passing of a political generation, could even see the Nats knocked out of power at Holyrood.
[cue: Ayrshire´s little ray of sunshine in total fulmination mode]0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Cwsc, if a member has over 50,000 posts he might have offered a 250/1 winning tip.4 -
Good morning everybody! Hard to believe we’re almost in April.
Interesting, and perhaps a sign of something or other BBC headline is the death of a comedian and drag artist.3 -
Do have to laugh. As a market the UK simply isn't large enough to sustain its own regulations regardless of what the ERG wazzocks think. So when we go off on our own we add a bucket load of costs which manufacturers can't stomach. In this case we risk what is left of our car manufacturing industry.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
Radical idea - how about we co-operate with our close neighbours whose market is much larger than ours, and ensure our products fit their regulations? That way we don't unilaterally impose a load of costs and drive ourselves out of business.4 -
It's not as plain as that.Sandpit said:
I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.DavidL said:Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question
The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".
The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.
A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
The Russians likely have well over 1500 relatively modern T72s they can still bring to the field this year, along with several hundred T80s, and the number of Challengers is very small; that of Leopards not much more.
The invasion is still quite some way from
defeat without further resources from Ukraine's allies.
Ukraine can hold the Russians, but it's still an open question as to how quickly they can push them back.
1 -
Scottish Labour could do very well under FPTP if it can pick up votes both from SNP and Tories.0
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I don't really care how many seats Labour wins in Scotland. What I care about is Tory seats. Hopefully closer to zero than at present.1
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Not a chance. He will fail in ways we can't even imagine yet. Starting with the appointment of Shona Robinson, Nicola's best mate, as deputy. I searched for her achievements on Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shona_Robison Unfortunately, achievements was a missing word!TheScreamingEagles said:
You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!1 -
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
Whew!YBarddCwsc said:
Well, with 84,088 posts, you obviously feel no great restriction. My rule of thumb is:kle4 said:
Gods forbid people speculate on politics. As we all know, only those in or with deep connection to a place ever get things right about it.YBarddCwsc said:
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.
If total posts are between 25,000 to 50,000, then the poster's social life needs serious help.
If total posts exceed 50,000, then the poster needs serious help.5 -
No, no Mr Pioneer! There are plenty of other markets for us to look at! What about Ecuador?
For the avoidance of doubt, this is a sarcastic post from a committed Rejoiner!1 -
Youseless is very fortunate that there is not an early cross-Scotland election to measure his performance by.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
Are there local elections next year, ahead of the general in October?0 -
A comedian and drag artist who was recently pushed out of Radio 2, and who was all over the telly whenever Clare Balding was too busy for a doggy programme. I wonder what was his IR35 status?OldKingCole said:Good morning everybody! Hard to believe we’re almost in April.
Interesting, and perhaps a sign of something or other BBC headline is the death of a comedian and drag artist.
ETA but yes, it does rather look like today's news page editor was a huge fan of O'Grady.1 -
Well, DYOR, but FWIW I have campaigned in and around Gordon on and and off for 40 odd years.YBarddCwsc said:
Right ...Cicero said:
2019 saw a continuing squeeze from both SNP and Tory in Gordon, however the Nats and the Tories are much weaker than they were, so, depending on the boundaries I think the Lib Dems will clearly increase their vote substantially and could even sneak it from third place, as the Tories did in 2017.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...
I remember forecasts of prospects in mid-Wales from the Tallinn LibDem Focus Team proved to be completely inaccurate.0 -
Obviously, no.Driver said:
So you mean that governments have been spending all your energy on trying to eliminate something they'd have been better off trying to mitigate?Nigelb said:UK ‘strikingly unprepared’ for impacts of climate crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/29/uk-strikingly-unprepared-impacts-climate-crisis
This is an under appreciated political issue, separate from progress towards net zero.
It's very likely indeed that global temperatures will continue to rise for the next three decades, and that will require mitigations that have not been planned for.
Well, there's surely no precedent for that.
Both things are needed. That you think it's either or just proves my point about the issue being under appreciated.1 -
The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.Sandpit said:
Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.Sandpit said:
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.
The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...1 -
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
Given the rain this week, it is quite easy to believe it is almost April.OldKingCole said:Good morning everybody! Hard to believe we’re almost in April.
Interesting, and perhaps a sign of something or other BBC headline is the death of a comedian and drag artist.0 -
Not in force anywhere in the UK! If you are a Tory MP why would you want to vote to abolish your own seat?DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
Not till 2027. Holyrood is 2026. Community councils are 2025, but those are more local than national party stuff.MarqueeMark said:
Youseless is very fortunate that there is not an early cross-Scotland election to measure his performance by.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
Are there local elections next year, ahead of the general in October?1 -
No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...1 -
Surely then the time is ripe for the high achievers of your party of choice to sweep to power?DavidL said:
Not a chance. He will fail in ways we can't even imagine yet. Starting with the appointment of Shona Robinson, Nicola's best mate, as deputy. I searched for her achievements on Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shona_Robison Unfortunately, achievements was a missing word!TheScreamingEagles said:
You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!1 -
Not for three years, though ...Theuniondivvie said:
Surely then the time is ripe for the high achievers of your party of choice to sweep to power?DavidL said:
Not a chance. He will fail in ways we can't even imagine yet. Starting with the appointment of Shona Robinson, Nicola's best mate, as deputy. I searched for her achievements on Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shona_Robison Unfortunately, achievements was a missing word!TheScreamingEagles said:
You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!0 -
My boring prediction is a moderate return to form for Labour, winning maybe half a dozen or so seats. FWIW I'm starting to wonder if the SNP's wobble is going to help Labour that much in net gain terms; I'd imagine it'll shore up the Tory seats too. Good news for the LDs maybe.1
-
Without government action, the change likely wouldn't have happened at all. Certainly nowhere near as fast as it has.Sandpit said:
Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.Sandpit said:
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
Getting to the economies of scale which enable EVs to outcompete ICE vehicles in the market this decade required both deadlines and massive subsidies.
The other alternative might have been action a decade earlier.2 -
The reference to population numbers was for the old boundaries, not the new ones!DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...1 -
RIP Lily Savage
Did a gig with her/him at the Usher Hall once. Worst night of my professional career.
The unexpected upside is no gig after that was ever as bad. Not even the high school death metal band in a blizzard on the back of a fish truck at Hogmanay
3 -
Like how most of the Scottish resident (with one notable exception - take a bow MalcG) dismissed concerns over the GRR bill as a fuss about nothing…kle4 said:
Gods forbid people speculate on politics. As we all know, only those in or with deep connection to a place ever get things right about it.YBarddCwsc said:
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.
0 -
So biased towards elderly house-owners and Tory voters. Which will make the existential crisis of the UK state even worse.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...1 -
AFAIU independence is a driver for a huge number of Scottish voters and, however poor their leadership may or may not be (I find it incredibly hard to believe the new FM is as bad as made out on here) they are the biggest game in town in that respect. But what do I know?2
-
A fuss about nothing, that claimed the political career of the First Minister.CarlottaVance said:
Like how most of the Scottish resident (with one notable exception - take a bow MalcG) dismissed concerns over the GRR bill as a fuss about nothing…kle4 said:
Gods forbid people speculate on politics. As we all know, only those in or with deep connection to a place ever get things right about it.YBarddCwsc said:
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.0 -
Ah, yes, checking the Act you are correct - the reports need to be laid before Parliament and, once all four have been, the government has four months to give the King an Order in Council to ratify.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...1 -
Forgive my ignorance, but are you a drag artist as well and suffer from comparison?Scott_xP said:RIP Lily Savage
Did a gig with her/him at the Usher Hall once. Worst night of my professional career.
The unexpected upside is no gig after that was ever as bad. Not even the high school death metal band in a blizzard on the back of a fish truck at Hogmanay1 -
If the predictions of Humza’s tenure not outlasting a Trussian lettuce don’t come to pass, that’s just three more years for Ross & co to put their obvious qualities on display.Carnyx said:
Not for three years, though ...Theuniondivvie said:
Surely then the time is ripe for the high achievers of your party of choice to sweep to power?DavidL said:
Not a chance. He will fail in ways we can't even imagine yet. Starting with the appointment of Shona Robinson, Nicola's best mate, as deputy. I searched for her achievements on Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shona_Robison Unfortunately, achievements was a missing word!TheScreamingEagles said:
You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!1 -
The effects of climate change will manifest in further migration challenges too; better start building more of these migrant cruise liners I'm hearing about.Nigelb said:UK ‘strikingly unprepared’ for impacts of climate crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/29/uk-strikingly-unprepared-impacts-climate-crisis
This is an under appreciated political issue, separate from progress towards net zero.
It's very likely indeed that global temperatures will continue to rise for the next three decades, and that will require mitigations that have not been planned for.
Governments don't tend to plan further than the next election, sadly. A kind of tragedy-of-the-Commons if you like; mitigating climate change ought to be a cross-party issue (barring dunderhead extremists and thickos).3 -
Obvs a trans self-identifier, too.OldKingCole said:
Forgive my ignorance, but are you a drag artist as well and suffer from comparison?Scott_xP said:RIP Lily Savage
Did a gig with her/him at the Usher Hall once. Worst night of my professional career.
The unexpected upside is no gig after that was ever as bad. Not even the high school death metal band in a blizzard on the back of a fish truck at Hogmanay0 -
This is going to be fun in 2026.
Labour will target Humza Yousaf’s Glasgow Pollok seat with a message that he lives 80 miles from the constituency, in an attempt to undermine his election campaigning.
Pollok is among the areas where Labour is delivering direct mail shots to try to capture voters who have previously backed the SNP as part of a campaign to exploit the divisive leadership election.
Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time living and working in Edinburgh after becoming first minister.
Labour hope that they can pin him into his constituency during the 2026 Holyrood election, hampering his ability to tour the country to campaign as party leader.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-aims-to-target-glasgow-pollok-seat-of-absent-first-minister-humza-yousaf-2mcspp60z0 -
I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.Sandpit said:
I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.DavidL said:Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question
The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".
The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.
A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.0 -
Don't think so. I think the next locals are due 2026.MarqueeMark said:
Youseless is very fortunate that there is not an early cross-Scotland election to measure his performance by.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
Are there local elections next year, ahead of the general in October?0 -
Biased towards actual voters. No vote, no voice...Carnyx said:
So biased towards elderly house-owners and Tory voters. Which will make the existential crisis of the UK state even worse.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...1 -
EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.RochdalePioneers said:
The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.Sandpit said:
Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.Sandpit said:
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.
The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...1 -
'Decapitation' strategies tend not to be a great use of resources though, right?TheScreamingEagles said:This is going to be fun in 2026.
Labour will target Humza Yousaf’s Glasgow Pollok seat with a message that he lives 80 miles from the constituency, in an attempt to undermine his election campaigning.
Pollok is among the areas where Labour is delivering direct mail shots to try to capture voters who have previously backed the SNP as part of a campaign to exploit the divisive leadership election.
Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time living and working in Edinburgh after becoming first minister.
Labour hope that they can pin him into his constituency during the 2026 Holyrood election, hampering his ability to tour the country to campaign as party leader.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-aims-to-target-glasgow-pollok-seat-of-absent-first-minister-humza-yousaf-2mcspp60z2 -
What was the turnout in central Liverpool seats, such as BootleDriver said:
Biased towards actual voters. No vote, no voice...Carnyx said:
So biased towards elderly house-owners and Tory voters. Which will make the existential crisis of the UK state even worse.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
Not long to go though. Just saying.DavidL said:
Whew!YBarddCwsc said:
Well, with 84,088 posts, you obviously feel no great restriction. My rule of thumb is:kle4 said:
Gods forbid people speculate on politics. As we all know, only those in or with deep connection to a place ever get things right about it.YBarddCwsc said:
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.
If total posts are between 25,000 to 50,000, then the poster's social life needs serious help.
If total posts exceed 50,000, then the poster needs serious help.0 -
That reminds me - is Mr Ross leaving Holyrood at the next election, or is my memory failing me? I am sure I recall some announcement, but can't confirm it. So I may be quite wrong, in which case apols.Theuniondivvie said:
If the predictions of Humza’s tenure not outlasting a Trussian lettuce don’t come to pass, that’s just three more years for Ross & co to put their obvious qualities on display.Carnyx said:
Not for three years, though ...Theuniondivvie said:
Surely then the time is ripe for the high achievers of your party of choice to sweep to power?DavidL said:
Not a chance. He will fail in ways we can't even imagine yet. Starting with the appointment of Shona Robinson, Nicola's best mate, as deputy. I searched for her achievements on Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shona_Robison Unfortunately, achievements was a missing word!TheScreamingEagles said:
You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!0 -
Yes and I'm not sure it is in Labour's interests that Yousaf isn't allowed to campaign across the country to show his unique talents.Ghedebrav said:
'Decapitation' strategies tend not to be a great use of resources though, right?TheScreamingEagles said:This is going to be fun in 2026.
Labour will target Humza Yousaf’s Glasgow Pollok seat with a message that he lives 80 miles from the constituency, in an attempt to undermine his election campaigning.
Pollok is among the areas where Labour is delivering direct mail shots to try to capture voters who have previously backed the SNP as part of a campaign to exploit the divisive leadership election.
Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time living and working in Edinburgh after becoming first minister.
Labour hope that they can pin him into his constituency during the 2026 Holyrood election, hampering his ability to tour the country to campaign as party leader.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-aims-to-target-glasgow-pollok-seat-of-absent-first-minister-humza-yousaf-2mcspp60z5 -
Off thread - yougov have sent me an offer by which - in exchange for 500 points (worth £5 at some point in the far future, assuming I do enough surveys) I give them details of all my banking transactions.
I'm not a privacy fundamentalist, but this sounds an astonishingly cheap price to sell such sensitive data for. I wonder how many takers they're getting?2 -
Despite me eulogising EVs on YouTube we are soon to hand back wifey's Ioniq EV. And replace it with a Panda 4x4 petrol...Foxy said:
EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.RochdalePioneers said:
The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.Sandpit said:
Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.Sandpit said:
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.
The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...0 -
But only at a snapshotr of time. Later registrants don't count. Ergo voter suppression.Driver said:
Biased towards actual voters. No vote, no voice...Carnyx said:
So biased towards elderly house-owners and Tory voters. Which will make the existential crisis of the UK state even worse.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
Luckily we're not actually under your thumb.YBarddCwsc said:
Well, with 84,088 posts, you obviously feel no great restriction. My rule of thumb is:kle4 said:
Gods forbid people speculate on politics. As we all know, only those in or with deep connection to a place ever get things right about it.YBarddCwsc said:
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.
If total posts are between 25,000 to 50,000, then the poster's social life needs serious help.
If total posts exceed 50,000, then the poster needs serious help.2 -
She made Humza look good by comparison as Health Secretary? I hope he doesn’t trust her to pilot any controversial legislation - ask a new backbencher how that turned out…..DavidL said:
Not a chance. He will fail in ways we can't even imagine yet. Starting with the appointment of Shona Robinson, Nicola's best mate, as deputy. I searched for her achievements on Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shona_Robison Unfortunately, achievements was a missing word!TheScreamingEagles said:
You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.DavidL said:
Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.Mexicanpete said:
As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.DavidL said:
I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.Benpointer said:I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
1 -
Also a bit odd for opponents of the party to target a leader they profess to be utterly useless.Ghedebrav said:
'Decapitation' strategies tend not to be a great use of resources though, right?TheScreamingEagles said:This is going to be fun in 2026.
Labour will target Humza Yousaf’s Glasgow Pollok seat with a message that he lives 80 miles from the constituency, in an attempt to undermine his election campaigning.
Pollok is among the areas where Labour is delivering direct mail shots to try to capture voters who have previously backed the SNP as part of a campaign to exploit the divisive leadership election.
Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time living and working in Edinburgh after becoming first minister.
Labour hope that they can pin him into his constituency during the 2026 Holyrood election, hampering his ability to tour the country to campaign as party leader.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-aims-to-target-glasgow-pollok-seat-of-absent-first-minister-humza-yousaf-2mcspp60z1 -
I’m old enough to remember Anas’s bold strategy to oust Nicola from her constituency (it may even have been given some credence on here). No doubt lessons have been learned.TheScreamingEagles said:This is going to be fun in 2026.
Labour will target Humza Yousaf’s Glasgow Pollok seat with a message that he lives 80 miles from the constituency, in an attempt to undermine his election campaigning.
Pollok is among the areas where Labour is delivering direct mail shots to try to capture voters who have previously backed the SNP as part of a campaign to exploit the divisive leadership election.
Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time living and working in Edinburgh after becoming first minister.
Labour hope that they can pin him into his constituency during the 2026 Holyrood election, hampering his ability to tour the country to campaign as party leader.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-aims-to-target-glasgow-pollok-seat-of-absent-first-minister-humza-yousaf-2mcspp60z
0 -
Coupled with that, the Gender Rights Bill was supported even more strongly by SLAB and SLD, as well as SG, even 3 SCON as I recall.DougSeal said:AFAIU independence is a driver for a huge number of Scottish voters and, however poor their leadership may or may not be (I find it incredibly hard to believe the new FM is as bad as made out on here) they are the biggest game in town in that respect. But what do I know?
So it may well be that Indy preference beats gender preference in deciding votes.
0 -
The current boundaries are I think older than that. I thought that they had been ready for 2005, but were delayed and not used for that GE, and so are probably based on 2002 numbers of registered electors.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
Well, durr. You have to have a cut off at some point. That's independent of whether you use registered voters - a known quantity at any point - or population numbers - which is only known precisely on one day every 10 years.Carnyx said:
But only at a snapshotr of time. Later registrants don't count. Ergo voter suppression.Driver said:
Biased towards actual voters. No vote, no voice...Carnyx said:
So biased towards elderly house-owners and Tory voters. Which will make the existential crisis of the UK state even worse.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
When it comes to the forming of the next government, the one thing to have in mind is that the SNP is not going to enable a Tory government; and will, despite rhetoric, enable a Labour one however cobbled together and however messy.
Seats is one thing; government another. So the common interest is in stopping a Tory resurgence in Scotland. At the moment that looks a fairly easy ride for the other parties.0 -
The lack of artillery rounds is very much a problem, and suppliers are upping production as stocks deplete faster than expected. Leading to some amusing headlines: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/energy-hungry-tiktok-cat-videos-altering-the-course-of-armed-conflict-in-ukraine/ar-AA1980xULostPassword said:
I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.Sandpit said:
I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.DavidL said:Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question
The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".
The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.
A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
The Western tanks are used very differently to the Russian tanks, which is what the Ukranians have been training in recent weeks. You don’t send a column of them down a road, you send one alongside significant infantrymen and other armoured vehicles.0 -
CDs are objectively better than streaming - if you pay for the music you own the music.Scott_xP said:
Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.Foxy said:Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.
Cassette tapes are more niche2 -
Guderian walks among us!Sandpit said:
The lack of artillery rounds is very much a problem, and suppliers are upping production as stocks deplete faster than expected. Leading to some amusing headlines: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/energy-hungry-tiktok-cat-videos-altering-the-course-of-armed-conflict-in-ukraine/ar-AA1980xULostPassword said:
I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.Sandpit said:
I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.DavidL said:Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question
The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".
The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.
A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
The Western tanks are used very differently to the Russian tanks, which is what the Ukranians have been training in recent weeks. You don’t send a column of them down a road, you send one alongside significant infantrymen and other armoured vehicles.1 -
Sadly, we shall still have Priti Patel as the Tory candidate in what is reckoned to be, even now, a safe, Tory seat.LostPassword said:
The current boundaries are I think older than that. I thought that they had been ready for 2005, but were delayed and not used for that GE, and so are probably based on 2002 numbers of registered electors.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...0 -
And I would take the photo from a Nikon FE2 over that of an iPhone 6s any day of the week.Foxy said:
EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.RochdalePioneers said:
The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.Sandpit said:
Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.Sandpit said:
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.
The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...1 -
Film cameras are enjoying something of a resurgence at the moment, as are vinyl records.Foxy said:
EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.RochdalePioneers said:
The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.Sandpit said:
Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.Sandpit said:
It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.DecrepiterJohnL said:A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.
The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
Car enthusiasts are very much looking to find good examples of collectible cars, to keep running in a dystopian future of always-online electric appliances.0 -
A huge problem for both sides, given the apparent reduction in artillery usage by both sides. That is, unless one or both sides are keeping a lot of ammunition in reserve for a push.LostPassword said:
I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.Sandpit said:
I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.DavidL said:Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question
The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".
The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.
A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.1 -
A pedant notes: Central Merseyside. Bootle is not in Liverpool.OldKingCole said:
What was the turnout in central Liverpool seats, such as BootleDriver said:
Biased towards actual voters. No vote, no voice...Carnyx said:
So biased towards elderly house-owners and Tory voters. Which will make the existential crisis of the UK state even worse.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.Sandpit said:
IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.Driver said:
Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.DavidL said:
I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.RochdalePioneers said:The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...
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