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So what will now happen in Scotland at the general election? – politicalbetting.com
So what will now happen in Scotland at the general election? – politicalbetting.com
The above is from the excellent Commons library report and analysis of the 2019 General Election and shows some of the charts in relation to Scotland.
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EDIT: First, like ..... who knows?
Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.
A Lab majority is a tough task, but that is where we are on current polling, even with the slight uptick.
Only a few weeks to go now to see a real vote.
Scottish seats to small swings.
The SNP could have more bad days in the next few years, but they are not going away.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)
How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?
As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).
Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?
Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.
So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...
The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/29/uk-strikingly-unprepared-impacts-climate-crisis
This is an under appreciated political issue, separate from progress towards net zero.
It's very likely indeed that global temperatures will continue to rise for the next three decades, and that will require mitigations that have not been planned for.
For now, being a pessimist, I'm sticking with mid 40s.
pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.
The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.
A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
I remember forecasts of prospects in mid-Wales from the Tallinn LibDem Focus Team proved to be completely inaccurate.
So utterly useless. As if that's news.
Pound for pound Scotland is my most profitable area of political betting.
There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
If total posts are between 25,000 to 50,000, then the poster's social life needs serious help.
If total posts exceed 50,000, then the poster needs serious help.
Well, there's surely no precedent for that.
Independence as an issue has fallen in popularity, and the sense of the inevitability or even desirability of separation has fallen quite sharply (somewhat ironically, this seems to be a result of the negative impact of the Brexit separation).
The SNP was a political juggernaut, but a combination of bad judgement, an air of sleaze and real questions about the viability of independence seems set to give the party a significant knock back at the next GE, though FPTP might save several SNP MPs. Come the next Scottish Parliament elections however, the lack of funds and turmoil in the party´s organization, after the departure of Murell, not to mention growing personal and political divisions, as well as the passing of a political generation, could even see the Nats knocked out of power at Holyrood.
[cue: Ayrshire´s little ray of sunshine in total fulmination mode]
Mr. Cwsc, if a member has over 50,000 posts he might have offered a 250/1 winning tip.
Interesting, and perhaps a sign of something or other BBC headline is the death of a comedian and drag artist.
Radical idea - how about we co-operate with our close neighbours whose market is much larger than ours, and ensure our products fit their regulations? That way we don't unilaterally impose a load of costs and drive ourselves out of business.
The Russians likely have well over 1500 relatively modern T72s they can still bring to the field this year, along with several hundred T80s, and the number of Challengers is very small; that of Leopards not much more.
The invasion is still quite some way from
defeat without further resources from Ukraine's allies.
Ukraine can hold the Russians, but it's still an open question as to how quickly they can push them back.
For the avoidance of doubt, this is a sarcastic post from a committed Rejoiner!
Are there local elections next year, ahead of the general in October?
ETA but yes, it does rather look like today's news page editor was a huge fan of O'Grady.
Both things are needed. That you think it's either or just proves my point about the issue being under appreciated.
We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.
The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
Getting to the economies of scale which enable EVs to outcompete ICE vehicles in the market this decade required both deadlines and massive subsidies.
The other alternative might have been action a decade earlier.
Did a gig with her/him at the Usher Hall once. Worst night of my professional career.
The unexpected upside is no gig after that was ever as bad. Not even the high school death metal band in a blizzard on the back of a fish truck at Hogmanay
Governments don't tend to plan further than the next election, sadly. A kind of tragedy-of-the-Commons if you like; mitigating climate change ought to be a cross-party issue (barring dunderhead extremists and thickos).
Labour will target Humza Yousaf’s Glasgow Pollok seat with a message that he lives 80 miles from the constituency, in an attempt to undermine his election campaigning.
Pollok is among the areas where Labour is delivering direct mail shots to try to capture voters who have previously backed the SNP as part of a campaign to exploit the divisive leadership election.
Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time living and working in Edinburgh after becoming first minister.
Labour hope that they can pin him into his constituency during the 2026 Holyrood election, hampering his ability to tour the country to campaign as party leader.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-aims-to-target-glasgow-pollok-seat-of-absent-first-minister-humza-yousaf-2mcspp60z
Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
I'm not a privacy fundamentalist, but this sounds an astonishingly cheap price to sell such sensitive data for. I wonder how many takers they're getting?
So it may well be that Indy preference beats gender preference in deciding votes.
Cassette tapes are more niche
Seats is one thing; government another. So the common interest is in stopping a Tory resurgence in Scotland. At the moment that looks a fairly easy ride for the other parties.
The Western tanks are used very differently to the Russian tanks, which is what the Ukranians have been training in recent weeks. You don’t send a column of them down a road, you send one alongside significant infantrymen and other armoured vehicles.
Car enthusiasts are very much looking to find good examples of collectible cars, to keep running in a dystopian future of always-online electric appliances.
Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.