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So what will now happen in Scotland at the general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    So. What was @Scott_xP doing on stage at the Usher Hall?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Driver said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.

    Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?

    Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.

    So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...

    I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.
    Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.
    IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.
    No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.
    So biased towards elderly house-owners and Tory voters. Which will make the existential crisis of the UK state even worse.
    I thought we'd always used the number of registered voters for drawing constituency boundaries, and not census figures as in some other countries like Ireland or the US. A switch to using census figures has been regularly advocated, at least since the poll tax knocked so many people off the electoral register.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".

    Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.

    I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.
    As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.

    As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).

    Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
    Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.
    Yes, who gives a toss about Westminster, they just go there to trough and achieve nothing. The dogfighting will be in Holyrood.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    Cookie said:

    Driver said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Driver said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.

    Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?

    Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.

    So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...

    I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.
    Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.
    IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.
    No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.
    So biased towards elderly house-owners and Tory voters. Which will make the existential crisis of the UK state even worse.
    Biased towards actual voters. No vote, no voice...
    What was the turnout in central Liverpool seats, such as Bootle
    A pedant notes: Central Merseyside. Bootle is not in Liverpool.

    Noted, with thanks.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,904
    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    CDs are objectively better than streaming - if you pay for the music you own the music.
    Provided they continue to make cd players. Look what happened to VHS. And how confident is your head of IT that he can still read those 10-year-old backups the bank retains?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".

    Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.

    I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.
    As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.

    As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).

    Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
    Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.
    Yes, who gives a toss about Westminster, they just go there to trough and achieve nothing. The dogfighting will be in Holyrood.
    Morning, Malc. Do you think Alba might win a seat?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    .
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.
    And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.
    Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.

    There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
    The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.

    We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.

    The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
    EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.
    And I would take the photo from a Nikon FE2 over that of an iPhone 6s any day of the week.
    I know which I'd prefer to lug around every day of the week.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".

    Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.

    I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.
    As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.

    As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).

    Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
    Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.
    You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.
    Not a chance. He will fail in ways we can't even imagine yet. Starting with the appointment of Shona Robinson, Nicola's best mate, as deputy. I searched for her achievements on Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shona_Robison Unfortunately, achievements was a missing word!
    Surely then the time is ripe for the high achievers of your party of choice to sweep to power?
    Not for three years, though ...
    If the predictions of Humza’s tenure not outlasting a Trussian lettuce don’t come to pass, that’s just three more years for Ross & co to put their obvious qualities on display.
    That reminds me - is Mr Ross leaving Holyrood at the next election, or is my memory failing me? I am sure I recall some announcement, but can't confirm it. So I may be quite wrong, in which case apols.
    I certainly don’t remember it being announced.
    Given that his Westminster seat is on a somewhat shoogly peg, electoral brib..er..targeted funding notwithstanding, Ross would need to be spending a lot more time on the touchline to keep him in the style to which he has become accustomed.
  • malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".

    Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.

    I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.
    As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.

    As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).

    Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
    Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.
    Yes, who gives a toss about Westminster, they just go there to trough and achieve nothing. The dogfighting will be in Holyrood.
    So the next Westminster election isn't going to be a de facto referendum vote?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,038
    I expect Scottish Labour to gain urban seats from the SNP and the Scottish Conservatives to gain rural seats from Yousaf's SNP
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.
    And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.
    Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.

    There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
    The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.

    We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.

    The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
    EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.
    And I would take the photo from a Nikon FE2 over that of an iPhone 6s any day of the week.
    I know which I'd prefer to lug around every day of the week.
    Yes of course. But how many pictures do you have on your camera which you never look at. And do you take 15 pictures of anything you are photographing "just in case".

    Phone cameras for most people are great. If you are a photographer you need a proper camera.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,038
    RIP Paul O'Grady
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,934
    DougSeal said:

    AFAIU independence is a driver for a huge number of Scottish voters and, however poor their leadership may or may not be (I find it incredibly hard to believe the new FM is as bad as made out on here) they are the biggest game in town in that respect. But what do I know?

    A more likely scenario is that non left wing SNP supporters will just not bother voting at the next GE, allowing gains by the other parties by default. This is what happened in 2017. However, there is plenty of time for Yousaf’s government to implode. There is also the likelihood that Plod’s investigations into SNP finances could actually come to a conclusion. I’m not placing any bets on any outcomes yet.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not sure I agree with "What is very clear is that any hopes labour have of returning to power rely on a very strong performance in Scotland".

    Unless the Tories + DUP have majority after the next GE Labour will return to power imo. Clearly, success for Labour in Scotland makes that easier but it's not a prerequisite.

    I do think that a dozen or so Scottish seats could easily be the difference between largest party and overall majority as the polls tighten a bit.
    As the election draws closer, if we are to see massive swingback to the Conservatives as highlighted and expected on these very pages, I don't see why that wouldn't also be the case for the incumbent SNP.

    As it stands Labour are 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (and we are expecting that to mostly drift back by election day). In Scotland Labour are 10 to 15 points adrift of the SNP (why are we not expecting that to return to its usual 20 to 25 point margin?).

    Labour are doomed, doomed I say!
    Swingback, if it helps Yousless at all, would come in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, not the General.
    You’ve all set the bar so low for him that he’s going to clear it and look like a success.
    Not a chance. He will fail in ways we can't even imagine yet. Starting with the appointment of Shona Robinson, Nicola's best mate, as deputy. I searched for her achievements on Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shona_Robison Unfortunately, achievements was a missing word!
    Surely then the time is ripe for the high achievers of your party of choice to sweep to power?
    Not for three years, though ...
    If the predictions of Humza’s tenure not outlasting a Trussian lettuce don’t come to pass, that’s just three more years for Ross & co to put their obvious qualities on display.
    That reminds me - is Mr Ross leaving Holyrood at the next election, or is my memory failing me? I am sure I recall some announcement, but can't confirm it. So I may be quite wrong, in which case apols.
    He announced he was leaving Westminster at the next GE.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,805
    TOPPING said:

    So. What was @Scott_xP doing on stage at the Usher Hall?

    Yes, I'm agog to find out. Scott is one of the posters whose number of posts to revealing backstory ratio is particularly high - but I had never guessed he is in showbusiness.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,038

    Sandpit said:

    Driver said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.

    Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?

    Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.

    So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...

    I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.
    Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.
    IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.
    No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.
    Well as you can't vote without being on the register that is hardly surprising
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,682
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344
    Cicero said:

    I think the SNP activists have made a choice that they prefer to be a "progressive", i.e. left wing party, rather than a national movement of both left and right. That more or less guarantees that voters who believe in liberal economics will have no reason to vote for them and businesses no reason to fund them, and equally voters who are left wing may choose to vote for an actual, "genuine", left wing party, i.e. Labour.

    Independence as an issue has fallen in popularity, and the sense of the inevitability or even desirability of separation has fallen quite sharply (somewhat ironically, this seems to be a result of the negative impact of the Brexit separation).

    The SNP was a political juggernaut, but a combination of bad judgement, an air of sleaze and real questions about the viability of independence seems set to give the party a significant knock back at the next GE, though FPTP might save several SNP MPs. Come the next Scottish Parliament elections however, the lack of funds and turmoil in the party´s organization, after the departure of Murell, not to mention growing personal and political divisions, as well as the passing of a political generation, could even see the Nats knocked out of power at Holyrood.

    [cue: Ayrshire´s little ray of sunshine in total fulmination mode]

    You have a high opinion of your perceptions but sadly lacking in reading of people and myself in particular. The desirability is still there but many realise it will not be the SNP that achieve it , certainly in current shape. Westminster is of no importance to Scotland, the deal is in Holyrood and likliehood is that people will bite their tongues and vote SNP / ALBA or ISP and so instead of loads of duff unionists getting the list seats , many will go to independence parties and give them a big majority. However the fly in the ointment is Useless and the old Murrells mafia who currently run the cartel. We shall see if they choose to live or die by the sword. Long time till 2026 if Useless avoids getting booted out.
    The first chance to kick these lowlifes is the foreign vote for Westminster.
  • I think it's pretty obvious that Scotland's going to split up, with the eastern part run by a Bangladeshi
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2023

    This is going to be fun in 2026.

    Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time living and working in Edinburgh after becoming first minister.

    Labour hope that they can pin him into his constituency during the 2026 Holyrood election, hampering his ability to tour the country to campaign as party leader.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-aims-to-target-glasgow-pollok-seat-of-absent-first-minister-humza-yousaf-2mcspp60z

    How very dare they! He lives in Broughty Ferry…..bit like saying a Primrose Hill resident lives in “Camden”!

    And I’d have thought they’d want him out on the campaign trail as much as possible….
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.

    Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
    A huge problem for both sides, given the apparent reduction in artillery usage by both sides. That is, unless one or both sides are keeping a lot of ammunition in reserve for a push.

    Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.
    I keep on hearing that the West can easily outstrip Russian production, but I don't see it. The shortage of artillery ammunition has been an issue for a long time, and is still an issue. The West is still sending armoured vehicles from existing stocks, with no discernible sign of new production - even Poland's planned production of licensed Korean tanks is some way off.

    If the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will the West be able to send to Ukraine? SFA by the look of it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,682

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.

    Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
    A huge problem for both sides, given the apparent reduction in artillery usage by both sides. That is, unless one or both sides are keeping a lot of ammunition in reserve for a push.

    Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.
    Ultimately wars are decided by two factors: political commitment and economic power. Which is why a potential war with China is much more problematic than with Russia, nukes aside.

    Putins best hope is the re-election of Trump, but if that happens, it is 2 years away.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Cookie said:

    Off thread - yougov have sent me an offer by which - in exchange for 500 points (worth £5 at some point in the far future, assuming I do enough surveys) I give them details of all my banking transactions.
    I'm not a privacy fundamentalist, but this sounds an astonishingly cheap price to sell such sensitive data for. I wonder how many takers they're getting?

    Not me that's 4 sure
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    CDs are objectively better than streaming - if you pay for the music you own the music.
    Provided they continue to make cd players. Look what happened to VHS. And how confident is your head of IT that he can still read those 10-year-old backups the bank retains?
    I don’t work for a bank, and I’m happy that we can read 10-year-old backups because we test them regularly. as should every head of IT worth his salt.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    And on it goes…..

    BREAKING: Humza Yousaf's reshuffle day 2 sees trade minister Ivan McKee quit the government after being offered 'a lesser job'. He was an early Forbes supporter

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1640991849555845121?s=20
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    Sandpit said:

    Car enthusiasts are very much looking to find good examples of collectible cars, to keep running in a dystopian future of always-online electric appliances.

    Rush - Red Barchetta waves hello
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    Battery life in EVs lasts better then you might think based on experience with phones, because they don't suffer from the degradation due to overheating. A cousin has a second-hand Nissan Leaf (range of ~100 miles when new) and gets on okay with it in County Longford.

    The main issue is simply that sales numbers of EVs were still very small ~five years ago, and so there simply aren't that many second hand EVs available. It will look very different in a few years time.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    Tell me about the second hand market in EVs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,682
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.
    And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.
    Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.

    There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
    The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.

    We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.

    The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
    EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.
    And I would take the photo from a Nikon FE2 over that of an iPhone 6s any day of the week.
    Certainly the sensor/film size in a camera is quite critical in terms of image quality, indeed more important in many ways to pixel count. Hence there is a role for DSL type cameras, as we see with photojournalists.

    It is the compact digital camera that is being superseded by the camera phones. Indeed for macro-photography they can beat even quite expensive cameras. This was on my Samsung.




  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    TOPPING said:

    So. What was @Scott_xP doing on stage at the Usher Hall?

    I never said I was on stage.

    I was the sound engineer for a 2 night stand at the Fringe one year.

    And the first night did not go well...
  • TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    Nope. Even the old tech packs (e.g. early Nissan Leafs) can have duff cells replaced in a pack. Or simply use the pack as home storage. There is a string used market for them. And modern packs? No problem at all. What's more there are far fewer moving parts on an EV drivetrain than an ICE one. None of the bits that give up on a petrol or diesel engine are found on an EV.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.
    And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.
    Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.

    There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
    The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.

    We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.

    The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
    EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.
    And I would take the photo from a Nikon FE2 over that of an iPhone 6s any day of the week.
    Certainly the sensor/film size in a camera is quite critical in terms of image quality, indeed more important in many ways to pixel count. Hence there is a role for DSL type cameras, as we see with photojournalists.

    It is the compact digital camera that is being superseded by the camera phones. Indeed for macro-photography they can beat even quite expensive cameras. This was on my Samsung.




    Yeah no offence but that isn't a great photo. Definition is crap. Great subject, though - cute little fella.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,682
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.
    And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.
    Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.

    There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
    The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.

    We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.

    The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
    EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.
    And I would take the photo from a Nikon FE2 over that of an iPhone 6s any day of the week.
    Certainly the sensor/film size in a camera is quite critical in terms of image quality, indeed more important in many ways to pixel count. Hence there is a role for DSL type cameras, as we see with photojournalists.

    It is the
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    Tell me about the second hand market in EVs.
    Strong for recent models. My Kia eniro is holding its value better than any other new car that I have owned. No real maintenence cost, and the range is as good as when it was new.

    Sure, 10 year old models are less good, particularly for range, but the technology has moved on a lot since then. There isn't much market for 10 year old iPhones either.
  • TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    So. What was @Scott_xP doing on stage at the Usher Hall?

    I never said I was on stage.

    I was the sound engineer for a 2 night stand at the Fringe one year.

    And the first night did not go well...
    Dammit I think I speak for all of us when I say I wish you had either been a) a drag queen; b) the drummer of the warm up band; or c) the solo guy on guitar playing self-written folk songs.
    Or all three in a single act.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    Nope. Even the old tech packs (e.g. early Nissan Leafs) can have duff cells replaced in a pack. Or simply use the pack as home storage. There is a string used market for them. And modern packs? No problem at all. What's more there are far fewer moving parts on an EV drivetrain than an ICE one. None of the bits that give up on a petrol or diesel engine are found on an EV.
    Thanks. What is the year/mileage before you have to replace the battery and what do they cost.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,619

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.

    Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
    A huge problem for both sides, given the apparent reduction in artillery usage by both sides. That is, unless one or both sides are keeping a lot of ammunition in reserve for a push.

    Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.
    I keep on hearing that the West can easily outstrip Russian production, but I don't see it. The shortage of artillery ammunition has been an issue for a long time, and is still an issue. The West is still sending armoured vehicles from existing stocks, with no discernible sign of new production - even Poland's planned production of licensed Korean tanks is some way off.

    If the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will the West be able to send to Ukraine? SFA by the look of it.
    With political will, we can. Russia's GDP is $1.5-1.6 trillion, below both Canada and Italy's. Our economy is $1 trillion above that; Germany's is double Russia's. France's is about the same as ours. Even leaving aside a potentially-flaky USA, the allies' economies are much larger than Russia's.

    Artillery production is being increased in many countries, from Australia to Canada; France to Norway. No individual country will produce enough, but combined we get to serious numbers. And yes, the increases will take time: but once ramped up, the taps will keep flowing as long as the funding does.

    Hence it becomes a political issue.

    In addition, countries are building more 'new' weaponry, or are ready to. E.g.:
    https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2022/10/11/us-army-bae-aim-to-accelerate-armored-vehicle-production/
    https://warisboring.com/germanys-leopard-tank-production-ready-to-increase/

    To ask a question similar to yours: if the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will Russia be able to send to Ukraine?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,263
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    200 T-55 vs 14 Challenger 2s… I wouldn’t bet against the T-55s
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,805
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening.

    I do also wonder if there is a future in which the most common model is owning small EVs for the 90% of our journeys which are local and renting large ICEs or other type for longer journeys. My understanding is that EVs are much more cost effective as small, relatively low range vehicles, and I wonder whether by trying to make EVs do what ICEs do we are solving the wrong problem.

    As a personal example, in my family we have two cars: a 14 year old Ford Focus and a rather newer MPV. We initially bought an MPV because we had three children under 5, and needed something which could fit three car seats in - but we're through that stage now. Now the reason for having an MPV is that a few times a year, all five of us plus luggage will go on a journey of more than 200 miles. I think many people are the same - we have the car we need for the extreme example of the journeys we make, rather than the typical example.
    90% of the time, though, there is at least one car parked outside our house. And weeks, months can go by without ever going much more than 50 miles from home.
    It feels like a much more resource-efficient solution would be to own a small EV, and on the rare occasion we needed two cars at once, or that we needed a bigger car, rent one.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    TOPPING said:

    the solo guy on guitar playing self-written folk songs.

    I also did the sole remaining Corrie at Murrayfield before the Calcutta Cup match once
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Foxy said:

    Strong for recent models. My Kia eniro is holding its value better than any other new car that I have owned. No real maintenence cost, and the range is as good as when it was new.

    Sure, 10 year old models are less good, particularly for range, but the technology has moved on a lot since then. There isn't much market for 10 year old iPhones either.

    Thx
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    To be fair a bog standard terraced house costs over a million in London so they might be minted. I take your point though - definitely a lot more dickhead cars around with dickhead driving styles to match.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    the solo guy on guitar playing self-written folk songs.

    I also did the sole remaining Corrie at Murrayfield before the Calcutta Cup match once
    How long was your hair at each event.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,682
    edited March 2023
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.
    And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.
    Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.

    There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
    The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.

    We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.

    The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
    EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.
    And I would take the photo from a Nikon FE2 over that of an iPhone 6s any day of the week.
    Certainly the sensor/film size in a camera is quite critical in terms of image quality, indeed more important in many ways to pixel count. Hence there is a role for DSL type cameras, as we see with photojournalists.

    It is the compact digital camera that is being superseded by the camera phones. Indeed for macro-photography they can beat even quite expensive cameras. This was on my Samsung.




    Yeah no offence but that isn't a great photo. Definition is crap. Great subject, though - cute little fella.
    Yes, but on night walk in the jungle!

    It would have been impossible to set up an analog SLR photo of that photo with less than a backpack of kit, and the little fellow would have moved on.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Foxy said:

    Yes, but on night walk in the jungle!

    It would have been impossible to set up a analog SLR photo of that photo with less than a backpack of kit, and the little fellow would have moved on.

    Fair enough and fair enough. And thanks for the location, I thought it must have been taken at Rutland Water.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    It’s rather amusing, that the EU powers-that-be just thought the Germans and Italians were going to roll over and accept the death of their car industries in a decade’s time.
    And that despite "taking back control" our own policy is thrown into doubt by an EU change.
    Technology doesn’t simply spring into existence because of legislation, no matter how many politicians wish it were so. Governments would be better off working towards upgrading the power infrastructure, and encouraging/incentivising the build-out of an electric car charging network.

    There will come a tipping point, after which the change will happen organically and with the support of the people, rather than the people seeing the banning of cars as something done to them without their consent.
    The technology to make all cars fully EV is here. There is no reason at all that we can't meet the 2030 target, with one big exception - charging. It is the wild west, 40 different charging networks, each with their own way of taking payment (usually with a bespoke app), each with their own (lack of) maintenance and customer service arrangements.

    We will need both a fundamental change to planning regulations to get charge points installed everywhere, and regulation of the charging companies to bring about universality. This was managed with connectors where we have gone from 3 to 1, so it can be done if rules are imposed.

    The other consideration is whether we are happy to import all vehicles. What is left of the industry is now under threat from us going earlier than the EEA and our own wild west approach to business planning and regulations...
    EVs are the future. Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.
    And I would take the photo from a Nikon FE2 over that of an iPhone 6s any day of the week.
    I know which I'd prefer to lug around every day of the week.
    Yes of course. But how many pictures do you have on your camera which you never look at. And do you take 15 pictures of anything you are photographing "just in case".

    Phone cameras for most people are great. If you are a photographer you need a proper camera.
    Oh, I am, and have a large collection of film cameras and lenses.
    But the iPhone is also a proper camera (though being vastly more capable, not as much fun).
  • Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    200 T-55 vs 14 Challenger 2s… I wouldn’t bet against the T-55s
    I refer you to the Battle of Norfolk.

    Not quite the same tank versions but earlier iterations.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    So. What was @Scott_xP doing on stage at the Usher Hall?

    I never said I was on stage.

    I was the sound engineer for a 2 night stand at the Fringe one year.

    And the first night did not go well...
    Dammit I think I speak for all of us when I say I wish you had either been a) a drag queen; b) the drummer of the warm up band; or c) the solo guy on guitar playing self-written folk songs.
    On (c) surely other people's folk songs posted on Twitter would be more likely?

    (only joking Scott, I love your work).
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,263

    A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    Do have to laugh. As a market the UK simply isn't large enough to sustain its own regulations regardless of what the ERG wazzocks think. So when we go off on our own we add a bucket load of costs which manufacturers can't stomach. In this case we risk what is left of our car manufacturing industry.

    Radical idea - how about we co-operate with our close neighbours whose market is much larger than ours, and ensure our products fit their regulations? That way we don't unilaterally impose a load of costs and drive ourselves out of business.
    It would be great to cooperate in a free trade area without BS political impositions as well. But apparently that’s not possible.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,805
    I was thinking about POG the other day. I was in B&M Bargains and was startled to see he had launched his own brand of dog biscuits. Unless it was some sort of strange dream.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    edited March 2023

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.

    Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
    A huge problem for both sides, given the apparent reduction in artillery usage by both sides. That is, unless one or both sides are keeping a lot of ammunition in reserve for a push.

    Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.
    I keep on hearing that the West can easily outstrip Russian production, but I don't see it. The shortage of artillery ammunition has been an issue for a long time, and is still an issue. The West is still sending armoured vehicles from existing stocks, with no discernible sign of new production - even Poland's planned production of licensed Korean tanks is some way off.

    If the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will the West be able to send to Ukraine? SFA by the look of it.
    Russia really would be out of tanks by next year, though.

    And the US still has thousands in storage.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    Nope. Even the old tech packs (e.g. early Nissan Leafs) can have duff cells replaced in a pack. Or simply use the pack as home storage. There is a string used market for them. And modern packs? No problem at all. What's more there are far fewer moving parts on an EV drivetrain than an ICE one. None of the bits that give up on a petrol or diesel engine are found on an EV.
    Thanks. What is the year/mileage before you have to replace the battery and what do they cost.
    A few people have replaced battery packs in old Leafs but from what I have seen on Youtube they are replacing a 24kW pack with a 40kW pack. The old pack is sold, the "new" pack comes from a scrapper.

    I have no idea about Tesla battery packs as I am unaware of a reason why you would need to replace it. Modern battery packs don't just die as some ICE engines do...
  • A looming British ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was thrown into chaos on Tuesday after Brussels watered down its own restrictions amid opposition from the German auto industry.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ (£££)

    How useless is Boris that he could not get a decent Brexit agreement even though it is now confirmed that German car makers really do run Europe?

    Do have to laugh. As a market the UK simply isn't large enough to sustain its own regulations regardless of what the ERG wazzocks think. So when we go off on our own we add a bucket load of costs which manufacturers can't stomach. In this case we risk what is left of our car manufacturing industry.

    Radical idea - how about we co-operate with our close neighbours whose market is much larger than ours, and ensure our products fit their regulations? That way we don't unilaterally impose a load of costs and drive ourselves out of business.
    It would be great to cooperate in a free trade area without BS political impositions as well. But apparently that’s not possible.
    Course its possible. We have just chosen not to.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,805

    TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    To be fair a bog standard terraced house costs over a million in London so they might be minted. I take your point though - definitely a lot more dickhead cars around with dickhead driving styles to match.
    I was thinking the same thing on Sunday. I was at Tesco in Cheetham Hill, which is possibly the most depressing spot in Greater Manchester. Yet every second car in the car park was new and shiny and expensive.
  • EmeraldEmerald Posts: 55
    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,751
    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    I think the SNP activists have made a choice that they prefer to be a "progressive", i.e. left wing party, rather than a national movement of both left and right. That more or less guarantees that voters who believe in liberal economics will have no reason to vote for them and businesses no reason to fund them, and equally voters who are left wing may choose to vote for an actual, "genuine", left wing party, i.e. Labour.

    Independence as an issue has fallen in popularity, and the sense of the inevitability or even desirability of separation has fallen quite sharply (somewhat ironically, this seems to be a result of the negative impact of the Brexit separation).

    The SNP was a political juggernaut, but a combination of bad judgement, an air of sleaze and real questions about the viability of independence seems set to give the party a significant knock back at the next GE, though FPTP might save several SNP MPs. Come the next Scottish Parliament elections however, the lack of funds and turmoil in the party´s organization, after the departure of Murell, not to mention growing personal and political divisions, as well as the passing of a political generation, could even see the Nats knocked out of power at Holyrood.

    [cue: Ayrshire´s little ray of sunshine in total fulmination mode]

    You have a high opinion of your perceptions but sadly lacking in reading of people and myself in particular. The desirability is still there but many realise it will not be the SNP that achieve it , certainly in current shape. Westminster is of no importance to Scotland, the deal is in Holyrood and likliehood is that people will bite their tongues and vote SNP / ALBA or ISP and so instead of loads of duff unionists getting the list seats , many will go to independence parties and give them a big majority. However the fly in the ointment is Useless and the old Murrells mafia who currently run the cartel. We shall see if they choose to live or die by the sword. Long time till 2026 if Useless avoids getting booted out.
    The first chance to kick these lowlifes is the foreign vote for Westminster.
    I think the SNP may well receive a gubbing at the next GE. But Holyrood in 2026 is a different kettle of fish. By then we'll be into a mid-term Starmer Govt which may well impact SLAB's chances and the SNP may have replaced Yousaf with someone electable. But really, who knows?
  • Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    Nice knowing you..
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,904
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Driver said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.

    Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?

    Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.

    So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...

    I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.
    Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.
    IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.
    No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.
    Well as you can't vote without being on the register that is hardly surprising
    MPs do not just represent the people who voted for them, or even just the people registered to vote, but in any case the reason it is not surprising in this instance is that it was part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering strategy (since copied in the US, iirc).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    Nope. Even the old tech packs (e.g. early Nissan Leafs) can have duff cells replaced in a pack. Or simply use the pack as home storage. There is a string used market for them. And modern packs? No problem at all. What's more there are far fewer moving parts on an EV drivetrain than an ICE one. None of the bits that give up on a petrol or diesel engine are found on an EV.
    Thanks. What is the year/mileage before you have to replace the battery and what do they cost.
    Current Hyundai battery warranties are for 160,000 km - though the pack ought to last much longer still.
    LFP chemistry batteries, which are starting to take over as they're much cheaper (though slightly less power density) are even more resilient.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2023
    Tributes from across the country to Paul O’Grady:

    Deeply saddened to hear of the death of Paul O’Grady, who worked closely with Her Majesty in support of @Battersea_, providing lots of laughter and many waggy-tailed memories.

    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1640997462176419840?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited March 2023
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening.

    I do also wonder if there is a future in which the most common model is owning small EVs for the 90% of our journeys which are local and renting large ICEs or other type for longer journeys. My understanding is that EVs are much more cost effective as small, relatively low range vehicles, and I wonder whether by trying to make EVs do what ICEs do we are solving the wrong problem.

    As a personal example, in my family we have two cars: a 14 year old Ford Focus and a rather newer MPV. We initially bought an MPV because we had three children under 5, and needed something which could fit three car seats in - but we're through that stage now. Now the reason for having an MPV is that a few times a year, all five of us plus luggage will go on a journey of more than 200 miles. I think many people are the same - we have the car we need for the extreme example of the journeys we make, rather than the typical example.
    90% of the time, though, there is at least one car parked outside our house. And weeks, months can go by without ever going much more than 50 miles from home.
    It feels like a much more resource-efficient solution would be to own a small EV, and on the rare occasion we needed two cars at once, or that we needed a bigger car, rent one.

    An EV works well as a second car, for most people who have a private driveway and a regular job. It does the daily commute, runs errands around town, and goes on charge every night. That covers 90% of journeys.

    I can definitely see the last of the MPV and SUV petrol cars being snapped up by rental companies, they’re going to hold up in value and everyone’s going to want one at Christmas.

    The worry for those buying an EV today, is that the technology moves so quickly that a five-year-old car is as popular as a five-year-old phone. When the new one does 500 miles and charges in 5 minutes, who will want an old one? What if the charging standard changes to enable faster speeds, and you’re stuck with the old one? I’d always lease an EV rather than buy it, which gives some random bank the risk of prices imploding. There are EV taxis that have done huge mileages (500,000+), but the concern is that the battery has a life measured mostly in time rather than usage.

    There’s also concerns around the connectivity of EVs in particular, especially with Tesla who own the chargers. There’s stories from the US, of cars repaired outside the dealer network being banned from the charging network for “safety” reasons. Even if you own the car, do you really actually *own* the car?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    To be fair a bog standard terraced house costs over a million in London so they might be minted. I take your point though - definitely a lot more dickhead cars around with dickhead driving styles to match.
    Driving has become appalling. So many cars without a headlight or a brake light and the cops do nothing.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited March 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Driver said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish results will be fascinating. I expect movement against both parties of government, made more entertaining that the SNP will blame the Tories and vice versa. So it should be a good election for Labour and the LibDems, but the problem comes in seats like my own where the local Tory is an arse but his only viable opponent is the SNP.

    Do you vote SNP in protest at the disastrous policies of the Tory government impacting on local farming, fishing and energy interests? Or vote Tory in protest at the disastrous policies of the SNP government impacting local energy interests and services?

    Or will the Boundary Review actually go through - in which case I will be in Aberdeenshire Central which is mostly the old Gordon seat. This was held by Malcolm Bruce of my own party until 2015, though LD votes have dissipated a lot since then.

    So, much to play for and the new constituencies could shake a load of things up...

    I hadn't realised that the new boundaries were still not in force. This is beyond ridiculous. Atm I am in Dundee West and would probably vote Labour in the vain hope they can recover the seat. If they go through I will be in the new Tayside North where the Tories will clearly be the strongest challenger.
    Final recommendations are due by 1st July and will presumably be approved by Parliament in the autumn. I don't think there's a real rush because Sunak ain't calling an election before then.
    IIRC the new boundaries don’t now need a vote in Parliament, with the legislation already passed. This was to stop the MPs voting them down again, after the debacle last time. The old boundaries have been in place since 2010, based on population numbers from 2005 or 2006.
    No, the new boundaries are not based on population numbers. As part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering programme (that cost them the EU referendum and both their careers), seats are based on the numbers of registered voters.
    Well as you can't vote without being on the register that is hardly surprising
    MPs do not just represent the people who voted for them, or even just the people registered to vote, but in any case the reason it is not surprising in this instance is that it was part of the Cameron/Osborne gerrymandering strategy (since copied in the US, iirc).
    No, they don't, put the whole point of equalising constituency size is to equalise registered voters, not the entire population.

    It's a sop to the "my vote is less equal" crowd. You don't get around that by including children in the calculation.

    And, as I said, the number of registered voters is a known figure at all times. The population isn't.
  • EmeraldEmerald Posts: 55
    Cookie said:

    Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    The world needs contrarians. But the problem with contrarians is that they grow to feel the need to take the contrary view on EVERYTHING.
    Yes but Julia Hartley Brewer started as pro vax so she has changed her opinion. Thats whats significant.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.

    Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
    A huge problem for both sides, given the apparent reduction in artillery usage by both sides. That is, unless one or both sides are keeping a lot of ammunition in reserve for a push.

    Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.
    I keep on hearing that the West can easily outstrip Russian production, but I don't see it. The shortage of artillery ammunition has been an issue for a long time, and is still an issue. The West is still sending armoured vehicles from existing stocks, with no discernible sign of new production - even Poland's planned production of licensed Korean tanks is some way off.

    If the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will the West be able to send to Ukraine? SFA by the look of it.
    With political will, we can. Russia's GDP is $1.5-1.6 trillion, below both Canada and Italy's. Our economy is $1 trillion above that; Germany's is double Russia's. France's is about the same as ours. Even leaving aside a potentially-flaky USA, the allies' economies are much larger than Russia's.

    Artillery production is being increased in many countries, from Australia to Canada; France to Norway. No individual country will produce enough, but combined we get to serious numbers. And yes, the increases will take time: but once ramped up, the taps will keep flowing as long as the funding does.

    Hence it becomes a political issue.

    In addition, countries are building more 'new' weaponry, or are ready to. E.g.:
    https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2022/10/11/us-army-bae-aim-to-accelerate-armored-vehicle-production/
    https://warisboring.com/germanys-leopard-tank-production-ready-to-increase/

    To ask a question similar to yours: if the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will Russia be able to send to Ukraine?
    The risk is that Russia will have supplies from China, where it's politically a lot easier to redirect industrial production and resources to the military than it is in the West.

    The ability of Russia to fight on despite heavy equipment losses has been consistently underestimated. Russian tank losses, for example, are in the range of 1900 (visually confirmed) to 3600 (Ukrainian general staff) compared to just under 3000 tanks in active service at the start of the war.

    According to some estimates the Russians will still be able to send significant numbers of reconditioned T-72 tanks removed from storage well into 2024.

    I think the West needs to do a lot more to increase armaments production to support Ukraine. Experience during the war to date is that we appear to be trying to do the minimum necessary and continually have to incrementally increase what we are doing. I foresee major announcements on new investment in armaments production later in the year, at least a year later than they should have happened. Everything is so reluctant and slow.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The departure of the two people in charge of the government's finances is a massive blow to Mr Yousaf as he sets about taking charge of running the devolved administration. He must now appoint a new finance secretary and a new business minister as well has find a new health secretary to succeed him.

    Mr McKee's and Ms Forbes's resignations also create further problems for Mr Yousaf as he attempts to heal his divided party.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23419589.fresh-blow-yousaf-business-minister-quits-government/?ref=twtrec
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening...

    Largely because demand greatly exceeds supply, so manufacturers have no incentive to make cheaper models.
    That will change in the next 3-5 years, looking at the number of factories being built now and in planning.

    And both batteries and motors are steadily getting cheaper to make, alongside the increase in capacity.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,751

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    200 T-55 vs 14 Challenger 2s… I wouldn’t bet against the T-55s
    I refer you to the Battle of Norfolk.

    Not quite the same tank versions but earlier iterations.
    From wiki. Quite something.

    "A British Challenger 1 tank during the 1st Gulf War. The British Challenger tank was the most efficient tank of the Gulf war suffering no losses while destroying approximately 300 Iraqi tanks during combat operations."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,682
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening.

    I do also wonder if there is a future in which the most common model is owning small EVs for the 90% of our journeys which are local and renting large ICEs or other type for longer journeys. My understanding is that EVs are much more cost effective as small, relatively low range vehicles, and I wonder whether by trying to make EVs do what ICEs do we are solving the wrong problem.

    As a personal example, in my family we have two cars: a 14 year old Ford Focus and a rather newer MPV. We initially bought an MPV because we had three children under 5, and needed something which could fit three car seats in - but we're through that stage now. Now the reason for having an MPV is that a few times a year, all five of us plus luggage will go on a journey of more than 200 miles. I think many people are the same - we have the car we need for the extreme example of the journeys we make, rather than the typical example.
    90% of the time, though, there is at least one car parked outside our house. And weeks, months can go by without ever going much more than 50 miles from home.
    It feels like a much more resource-efficient solution would be to own a small EV, and on the rare occasion we needed two cars at once, or that we needed a bigger car, rent one.

    An EV works well as a second car, for most people who have a private driveway and a regular job. It does the daily commute, runs errands around town, and goes on charge every night. That covers 90% of journeys.

    I can definitely see the last of the MPV and SUV petrol cars being snapped up by rental companies, they’re going to hold up in value and everyone’s going to want one at Christmas.

    The worry for those buying an EV today, is that the technology moves so quickly that a five-year-old car is as popular as a five-year-old phone. When the new one does 500 miles and charges in 5 minutes, who will want an old one? What if the charging standard changes to enable faster speeds, and you’re stuck with the old one? I’d always lease an EV rather than buy it, which gives some random bank the risk of prices imploding. There are EV taxis that have done huge mileages (500,000+), but the concern is that the battery has a life measured mostly in time rather than usage.

    There’s also concerns around the connectivity of EVs in particular, especially with Tesla who own the chargers. There’s stories from the US, of cars repaired outside the dealer network being banned from the charging network for “safety” reasons. Even if you own the car, do you really actually *own* the car?
    Man living in petrostate not a fan of EVs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978
    edited March 2023
    Cookie said:

    Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    The world needs contrarians. But the problem with contrarians is that they grow to feel the need to take the contrary view on EVERYTHING.
    Trouble is more that the GB News, shock jock, right wing tabloid, Spiked, Free Speech Union contrarians are just another silo of similar views, not many in that tribe who take issue with each other’s pov. A few relentless contrarians in amongst that motley crew would make a refreshing change.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    edited March 2023
    Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    Vastly preferable to being unvaccinated Covid guinea pigs.
    Also, she's wrong. All vaccines went through clinical trials; those trial volunteers were the guinea pigs.

    Hartley Brewer being a fool, and your telling us about it, isn't very interesting at all.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    TOPPING said:

    I would be interested to see what new car stats are given the interest rate rises. Already 98.5% of cars are bought on the never, never (witness the brand spanking new RR Evoques outside bog standard terraced houses).

    What is the second hand market in EVs like? Is(n't) there an issue with battery/battery life?

    To be fair a bog standard terraced house costs over a million in London so they might be minted. I take your point though - definitely a lot more dickhead cars around with dickhead driving styles to match.
    Driving has become appalling. So many cars without a headlight or a brake light and the cops do nothing.
    And half the cars that have both headlights working have ultra-powerful LED ones that blind you when you look in the wing mirror.
  • Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening...

    Largely because demand greatly exceeds supply, so manufacturers have no incentive to make cheaper models.
    That will change in the next 3-5 years, looking at the number of factories being built now and in planning.

    And both batteries and motors are steadily getting cheaper to make, alongside the increase in capacity.
    At some point HM Treasury is going to want to tax EVs harder, whether that's by killing the BIK tax incentives or by increasing "road tax" or by adding duty to electric charging like it does to ICE fuels, or all 3. The current tax treatment of EV purchase and use is not sustainable, surely ?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Emerald said:

    Cookie said:

    Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    The world needs contrarians. But the problem with contrarians is that they grow to feel the need to take the contrary view on EVERYTHING.
    Yes but Julia Hartley Brewer started as pro vax so she has changed her opinion. Thats whats significant.
    She's not going to get rentagob radio/opinion column gigs by presenting a nuanced view. She's made a journalistic choice to go in two-footed; who knows what her actual view is, if indeed she has one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    .

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.

    Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
    A huge problem for both sides, given the apparent reduction in artillery usage by both sides. That is, unless one or both sides are keeping a lot of ammunition in reserve for a push.

    Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.
    I keep on hearing that the West can easily outstrip Russian production, but I don't see it. The shortage of artillery ammunition has been an issue for a long time, and is still an issue. The West is still sending armoured vehicles from existing stocks, with no discernible sign of new production - even Poland's planned production of licensed Korean tanks is some way off.

    If the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will the West be able to send to Ukraine? SFA by the look of it.
    With political will, we can. Russia's GDP is $1.5-1.6 trillion, below both Canada and Italy's. Our economy is $1 trillion above that; Germany's is double Russia's. France's is about the same as ours. Even leaving aside a potentially-flaky USA, the allies' economies are much larger than Russia's.

    Artillery production is being increased in many countries, from Australia to Canada; France to Norway. No individual country will produce enough, but combined we get to serious numbers. And yes, the increases will take time: but once ramped up, the taps will keep flowing as long as the funding does.

    Hence it becomes a political issue.

    In addition, countries are building more 'new' weaponry, or are ready to. E.g.:
    https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2022/10/11/us-army-bae-aim-to-accelerate-armored-vehicle-production/
    https://warisboring.com/germanys-leopard-tank-production-ready-to-increase/

    To ask a question similar to yours: if the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will Russia be able to send to Ukraine?
    The risk is that Russia will have supplies from China, where it's politically a lot easier to redirect industrial production and resources to the military than it is in the West.

    The ability of Russia to fight on despite heavy equipment losses has been consistently underestimated. Russian tank losses, for example, are in the range of 1900 (visually confirmed) to 3600 (Ukrainian general staff) compared to just under 3000 tanks in active service at the start of the war.

    According to some estimates the Russians will still be able to send significant numbers of reconditioned T-72 tanks removed from storage well into 2024.

    I think the West needs to do a lot more to increase armaments production to support Ukraine. Experience during the war to date is that we appear to be trying to do the minimum necessary and continually have to incrementally increase what we are doing. I foresee major announcements on new investment in armaments production later in the year, at least a year later than they should have happened. Everything is so reluctant and slow.
    The future nature of this war is almost entirely down to Xi Jinping, as it has been since the start. If China supplies arms or men to Russia then it’s WWIII, and the West will move to a war footing that’s not been seen since 1945.

    Thankfully, Xi told Putin where to stick his request, when the two men met last week.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:


    pb.com's high-performance team of experts on Scottish politics are in full flow.

    Gods forbid people speculate on politics. As we all know, only those in or with deep connection to a place ever get things right about it.
    Well, with 84,088 posts, you obviously feel no great restriction. My rule of thumb is:

    If total posts are between 25,000 to 50,000, then the poster's social life needs serious help.

    If total posts exceed 50,000, then the poster needs serious help.
    Whew!
    I'm just glad @HYUFD ; @thescreamingeagles and now @kle4 are ahead of my post count.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    Does anyone still read or listen to Julia Hartley Brewer anymore?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,619

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Some good pictures of Challenger 2 tanks on manoeuvre in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/28/2160646/-Ukraine-Update-Western-tanks-are-in-Ukraine-but-how-they-will-be-used-is-an-open-question

    The UK government has delivered on its promises in remarkably quick time. Described by the Ukrainians as a "true friend of Ukraine".

    I know it’s been said numerous times, but this looks again like a turning point in the war. The enemy has thrown so much, in terms of men and materiel, at the conflict, yet has failed to gain any significant territory over the winter.

    The juxtaposition of numerous Western tanks arriving in Ukraine, as the Russians are pulling 60-year-old T-55 tanks out of museums for recommissioning, is very stark.

    A T-55 vs a Challenger 2, is the enemy bringing a knife to a gun fight.
    I'm a bit nervous about the Challenger 2's. A few 152mm artillery shells and ATGM strikes could quickly knock most of the 14 sent out.

    Meanwhile France is doubling its supply of 155mm artillery shells to 2,000. A month. The lack of artillery ammunition is a huge problem.
    A huge problem for both sides, given the apparent reduction in artillery usage by both sides. That is, unless one or both sides are keeping a lot of ammunition in reserve for a push.

    Russia's problem is that given time, the west can easily outstrip Russian production, whilst just buffing our nails - given the political will. Russia's economy was relatively small *before* the war, and even going to a WW2-style footing and devoting 50% of their economy to the war effort will do little to change that. Especially with sanctions biting.
    I keep on hearing that the West can easily outstrip Russian production, but I don't see it. The shortage of artillery ammunition has been an issue for a long time, and is still an issue. The West is still sending armoured vehicles from existing stocks, with no discernible sign of new production - even Poland's planned production of licensed Korean tanks is some way off.

    If the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will the West be able to send to Ukraine? SFA by the look of it.
    With political will, we can. Russia's GDP is $1.5-1.6 trillion, below both Canada and Italy's. Our economy is $1 trillion above that; Germany's is double Russia's. France's is about the same as ours. Even leaving aside a potentially-flaky USA, the allies' economies are much larger than Russia's.

    Artillery production is being increased in many countries, from Australia to Canada; France to Norway. No individual country will produce enough, but combined we get to serious numbers. And yes, the increases will take time: but once ramped up, the taps will keep flowing as long as the funding does.

    Hence it becomes a political issue.

    In addition, countries are building more 'new' weaponry, or are ready to. E.g.:
    https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2022/10/11/us-army-bae-aim-to-accelerate-armored-vehicle-production/
    https://warisboring.com/germanys-leopard-tank-production-ready-to-increase/

    To ask a question similar to yours: if the war is still being fought in 2024 what equipment will Russia be able to send to Ukraine?
    The risk is that Russia will have supplies from China, where it's politically a lot easier to redirect industrial production and resources to the military than it is in the West.

    The ability of Russia to fight on despite heavy equipment losses has been consistently underestimated. Russian tank losses, for example, are in the range of 1900 (visually confirmed) to 3600 (Ukrainian general staff) compared to just under 3000 tanks in active service at the start of the war.

    According to some estimates the Russians will still be able to send significant numbers of reconditioned T-72 tanks removed from storage well into 2024.

    I think the West needs to do a lot more to increase armaments production to support Ukraine. Experience during the war to date is that we appear to be trying to do the minimum necessary and continually have to incrementally increase what we are doing. I foresee major announcements on new investment in armaments production later in the year, at least a year later than they should have happened. Everything is so reluctant and slow.
    If China joins the game, then all bets are off - depending on how whole-heartedly they join. But I can't see why Xi would want to join in in any significant manner. The downsides for him are large in many ways.

    "According to some estimates the Russians will still be able to send significant numbers of reconditioned T-72 tanks removed from storage well into 2024."

    The questions are how large are those 'significant numbers' (i.e. are they significant enough?), and how good the reconditioning is. Besides, it's not just a question of tanks (which are the large, sexy objects people obsess on): it's a case of IFVs, APCs, logistics trucks and everything else. The unsexy things that this war has been using up at an alarming rate.

    Perun's latest video covers this a little, and he makes a point that it's not just a case of combat losses of vehicles: it's a case of vehicles simply wearing out. If that T-72 was near the end of its service life when it went into deep storage, then the reconditioning becomes a very, very large project: and if it's not done fully, that vehicle's life is reduced.

    And in addition: parts of a tank plant that is busy reconditioning old tanks cannot be used to build new tanks. Neither can the skilled workers. Again, the west/Ukrainian allies have a much greater capacity for new build, repair and refurbishment of Ukrainian kit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,191
    Roger said:

    Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    Does anyone still read or listen to Julia Hartley Brewer anymore?
    Often in my Waitrose but we've never chatted.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344

    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    I think the SNP activists have made a choice that they prefer to be a "progressive", i.e. left wing party, rather than a national movement of both left and right. That more or less guarantees that voters who believe in liberal economics will have no reason to vote for them and businesses no reason to fund them, and equally voters who are left wing may choose to vote for an actual, "genuine", left wing party, i.e. Labour.

    Independence as an issue has fallen in popularity, and the sense of the inevitability or even desirability of separation has fallen quite sharply (somewhat ironically, this seems to be a result of the negative impact of the Brexit separation).

    The SNP was a political juggernaut, but a combination of bad judgement, an air of sleaze and real questions about the viability of independence seems set to give the party a significant knock back at the next GE, though FPTP might save several SNP MPs. Come the next Scottish Parliament elections however, the lack of funds and turmoil in the party´s organization, after the departure of Murell, not to mention growing personal and political divisions, as well as the passing of a political generation, could even see the Nats knocked out of power at Holyrood.

    [cue: Ayrshire´s little ray of sunshine in total fulmination mode]

    You have a high opinion of your perceptions but sadly lacking in reading of people and myself in particular. The desirability is still there but many realise it will not be the SNP that achieve it , certainly in current shape. Westminster is of no importance to Scotland, the deal is in Holyrood and likliehood is that people will bite their tongues and vote SNP / ALBA or ISP and so instead of loads of duff unionists getting the list seats , many will go to independence parties and give them a big majority. However the fly in the ointment is Useless and the old Murrells mafia who currently run the cartel. We shall see if they choose to live or die by the sword. Long time till 2026 if Useless avoids getting booted out.
    The first chance to kick these lowlifes is the foreign vote for Westminster.
    I think the SNP may well receive a gubbing at the next GE. But Holyrood in 2026 is a different kettle of fish. By then we'll be into a mid-term Starmer Govt which may well impact SLAB's chances and the SNP may have replaced Yousaf with someone electable. But really, who knows?
    I agree and think that si the way it will go. Key at Holyrood will be if the duffers vote SNP1/2 again and allow shedloads of unionists in or the idiots get over their ego's and use 2nd vote for an independence party. That was key re sturgeon having no interest in Independence last time as she promoted people to vote for unionists to get into Holyrood by urging people to waste their second vote on SNP.
    That was the beginning of the end.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited March 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening...

    Largely because demand greatly exceeds supply, so manufacturers have no incentive to make cheaper models.
    That will change in the next 3-5 years, looking at the number of factories being built now and in planning.

    And both batteries and motors are steadily getting cheaper to make, alongside the increase in capacity.
    I will never have an electric car until they solve the charging issue ie having to wait to get to a charging point and. Then 40 mins for a half charge....I suspect I will have met my maker by then.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited March 2023
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening.

    I do also wonder if there is a future in which the most common model is owning small EVs for the 90% of our journeys which are local and renting large ICEs or other type for longer journeys. My understanding is that EVs are much more cost effective as small, relatively low range vehicles, and I wonder whether by trying to make EVs do what ICEs do we are solving the wrong problem.

    As a personal example, in my family we have two cars: a 14 year old Ford Focus and a rather newer MPV. We initially bought an MPV because we had three children under 5, and needed something which could fit three car seats in - but we're through that stage now. Now the reason for having an MPV is that a few times a year, all five of us plus luggage will go on a journey of more than 200 miles. I think many people are the same - we have the car we need for the extreme example of the journeys we make, rather than the typical example.
    90% of the time, though, there is at least one car parked outside our house. And weeks, months can go by without ever going much more than 50 miles from home.
    It feels like a much more resource-efficient solution would be to own a small EV, and on the rare occasion we needed two cars at once, or that we needed a bigger car, rent one.

    An EV works well as a second car, for most people who have a private driveway and a regular job. It does the daily commute, runs errands around town, and goes on charge every night. That covers 90% of journeys.

    I can definitely see the last of the MPV and SUV petrol cars being snapped up by rental companies, they’re going to hold up in value and everyone’s going to want one at Christmas.

    The worry for those buying an EV today, is that the technology moves so quickly that a five-year-old car is as popular as a five-year-old phone. When the new one does 500 miles and charges in 5 minutes, who will want an old one? What if the charging standard changes to enable faster speeds, and you’re stuck with the old one? I’d always lease an EV rather than buy it, which gives some random bank the risk of prices imploding. There are EV taxis that have done huge mileages (500,000+), but the concern is that the battery has a life measured mostly in time rather than usage.

    There’s also concerns around the connectivity of EVs in particular, especially with Tesla who own the chargers. There’s stories from the US, of cars repaired outside the dealer network being banned from the charging network for “safety” reasons. Even if you own the car, do you really actually *own* the car?
    Man living in petrostate not a fan of EVs.
    Just playing the devil’s advocate. There’s actually a few EVs out here, but electricity is expensive and petrol is cheap.

    At least there’s the infrastructure though, which isn’t the case in large parts of the world outside the West. There’s not going to be a huge rise in EV use in large parts of Asia or Africa any time soon.
  • EmeraldEmerald Posts: 55
    Public satisfaction with the National Health Service (NHS) slumps to the lowest level on record

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1640985979484876801?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084

    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening...

    Largely because demand greatly exceeds supply, so manufacturers have no incentive to make cheaper models.
    That will change in the next 3-5 years, looking at the number of factories being built now and in planning.

    And both batteries and motors are steadily getting cheaper to make, alongside the increase in capacity.
    At some point HM Treasury is going to want to tax EVs harder, whether that's by killing the BIK tax incentives or by increasing "road tax" or by adding duty to electric charging like it does to ICE fuels, or all 3. The current tax treatment of EV purchase and use is not sustainable, surely ?
    Charge for miles traveled is the most talked about replacement (and probably the most practical).
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60251046.amp

    As it involves charging identifiable vehicles, you could also graduate it between luxury and cheap vehicles (or heavy and light ones), which might appeal to some political opinion.

    Though doubtless they'll muck around with VED, too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    Roger said:

    Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    Does anyone still read or listen to Julia Hartley Brewer anymore?
    The kind of poster that @rcs1000 bans from time to time, almost certainly.
  • Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening.

    I do also wonder if there is a future in which the most common model is owning small EVs for the 90% of our journeys which are local and renting large ICEs or other type for longer journeys. My understanding is that EVs are much more cost effective as small, relatively low range vehicles, and I wonder whether by trying to make EVs do what ICEs do we are solving the wrong problem.

    As a personal example, in my family we have two cars: a 14 year old Ford Focus and a rather newer MPV. We initially bought an MPV because we had three children under 5, and needed something which could fit three car seats in - but we're through that stage now. Now the reason for having an MPV is that a few times a year, all five of us plus luggage will go on a journey of more than 200 miles. I think many people are the same - we have the car we need for the extreme example of the journeys we make, rather than the typical example.
    90% of the time, though, there is at least one car parked outside our house. And weeks, months can go by without ever going much more than 50 miles from home.
    It feels like a much more resource-efficient solution would be to own a small EV, and on the rare occasion we needed two cars at once, or that we needed a bigger car, rent one.

    An EV works well as a second car, for most people who have a private driveway and a regular job. It does the daily commute, runs errands around town, and goes on charge every night. That covers 90% of journeys.

    I can definitely see the last of the MPV and SUV petrol cars being snapped up by rental companies, they’re going to hold up in value and everyone’s going to want one at Christmas.

    The worry for those buying an EV today, is that the technology moves so quickly that a five-year-old car is as popular as a five-year-old phone. When the new one does 500 miles and charges in 5 minutes, who will want an old one? What if the charging standard changes to enable faster speeds, and you’re stuck with the old one? I’d always lease an EV rather than buy it, which gives some random bank the risk of prices imploding. There are EV taxis that have done huge mileages (500,000+), but the concern is that the battery has a life measured mostly in time rather than usage.

    There’s also concerns around the connectivity of EVs in particular, especially with Tesla who own the chargers. There’s stories from the US, of cars repaired outside the dealer network being banned from the charging network for “safety” reasons. Even if you own the car, do you really actually *own* the car?
    The next big change in architecture is 800V charging (vs the current 400V). The problem with this is that not only does it cost more on the car, the demands on the electricity network to install 800V chargers is so much more.

    In practice the drive for manufacturers should be efficiency. They have have made big strides in fuel economy from their ICE engines, yet the likes of Jag / BMW / Audi / Mercedes don't seem to give a toss about developing an efficient drivetrain. Simply stick a bigger and bigger battery in to get to a claimed range they won't ever get near. Sticking an ugly massive pointless grill on the front is far more important apparently.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,300

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    I still use Minidisc ;)
    Real Men (TM) listen to Robert Johnson on the original wax cylinders.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    @kevverage
    a killer observation from the SNP’s outgoing business minister …

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1641010327516073984
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening.

    I do also wonder if there is a future in which the most common model is owning small EVs for the 90% of our journeys which are local and renting large ICEs or other type for longer journeys. My understanding is that EVs are much more cost effective as small, relatively low range vehicles, and I wonder whether by trying to make EVs do what ICEs do we are solving the wrong problem.

    As a personal example, in my family we have two cars: a 14 year old Ford Focus and a rather newer MPV. We initially bought an MPV because we had three children under 5, and needed something which could fit three car seats in - but we're through that stage now. Now the reason for having an MPV is that a few times a year, all five of us plus luggage will go on a journey of more than 200 miles. I think many people are the same - we have the car we need for the extreme example of the journeys we make, rather than the typical example.
    90% of the time, though, there is at least one car parked outside our house. And weeks, months can go by without ever going much more than 50 miles from home.
    It feels like a much more resource-efficient solution would be to own a small EV, and on the rare occasion we needed two cars at once, or that we needed a bigger car, rent one.

    An EV works well as a second car, for most people who have a private driveway and a regular job. It does the daily commute, runs errands around town, and goes on charge every night. That covers 90% of journeys.

    I can definitely see the last of the MPV and SUV petrol cars being snapped up by rental companies, they’re going to hold up in value and everyone’s going to want one at Christmas.

    The worry for those buying an EV today, is that the technology moves so quickly that a five-year-old car is as popular as a five-year-old phone. When the new one does 500 miles and charges in 5 minutes, who will want an old one? What if the charging standard changes to enable faster speeds, and you’re stuck with the old one? I’d always lease an EV rather than buy it, which gives some random bank the risk of prices imploding. There are EV taxis that have done huge mileages (500,000+), but the concern is that the battery has a life measured mostly in time rather than usage.

    There’s also concerns around the connectivity of EVs in particular, especially with Tesla who own the chargers. There’s stories from the US, of cars repaired outside the dealer network being banned from the charging network for “safety” reasons. Even if you own the car, do you really actually *own* the car?
    We've never paid more than a few thousand for any of our second (or fourth) hand diesel cars. The chances of us, or the large number of other car drivers like us, putting down a five figure deposit and a few hundred a month for a new car are very slim. There will be lots of demand for five year old EV cars.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,340
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    So. What was @Scott_xP doing on stage at the Usher Hall?

    I never said I was on stage.

    I was the sound engineer for a 2 night stand at the Fringe one year.

    And the first night did not go well...
    I for one am literally GOBSMACKED that it turns out you’re a sound engineer, not the axemeister general in a notorious Death Metal combo
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Cookie said:

    Emerald said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer starting to go full on antivax on talkradio this morning. She says we have been big pharma guinea pigs. Interesting.

    The world needs contrarians. But the problem with contrarians is that they grow to feel the need to take the contrary view on EVERYTHING.
    Trouble is more that the GB News, shock jock, right wing tabloid, Spiked, Free Speech Union contrarians are just another silo of similar views, not many in that tribe who take issue with each other’s pov. A few relentless contrarians in amongst that motley crew would make a refreshing change.
    They cancelled Guto Harri for taking the knee, lest we forget.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    Tell me about the second hand market in EVs.
    Just like ICE cars, it depends on the car. Taycans are residual monsters they can easily hold 70% of their value after three years. BMW, Merc and Tesla BEVs all do very well in the used market. Don't know about shitboxes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    edited March 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening.

    I do also wonder if there is a future in which the most common model is owning small EVs for the 90% of our journeys which are local and renting large ICEs or other type for longer journeys. My understanding is that EVs are much more cost effective as small, relatively low range vehicles, and I wonder whether by trying to make EVs do what ICEs do we are solving the wrong problem.

    As a personal example, in my family we have two cars: a 14 year old Ford Focus and a rather newer MPV. We initially bought an MPV because we had three children under 5, and needed something which could fit three car seats in - but we're through that stage now. Now the reason for having an MPV is that a few times a year, all five of us plus luggage will go on a journey of more than 200 miles. I think many people are the same - we have the car we need for the extreme example of the journeys we make, rather than the typical example.
    90% of the time, though, there is at least one car parked outside our house. And weeks, months can go by without ever going much more than 50 miles from home.
    It feels like a much more resource-efficient solution would be to own a small EV, and on the rare occasion we needed two cars at once, or that we needed a bigger car, rent one.

    An EV works well as a second car, for most people who have a private driveway and a regular job. It does the daily commute, runs errands around town, and goes on charge every night. That covers 90% of journeys.

    I can definitely see the last of the MPV and SUV petrol cars being snapped up by rental companies, they’re going to hold up in value and everyone’s going to want one at Christmas.

    The worry for those buying an EV today, is that the technology moves so quickly that a five-year-old car is as popular as a five-year-old phone. When the new one does 500 miles and charges in 5 minutes, who will want an old one? What if the charging standard changes to enable faster speeds, and you’re stuck with the old one? I’d always lease an EV rather than buy it, which gives some random bank the risk of prices imploding. There are EV taxis that have done huge mileages (500,000+), but the concern is that the battery has a life measured mostly in time rather than usage.

    There’s also concerns around the connectivity of EVs in particular, especially with Tesla who own the chargers. There’s stories from the US, of cars repaired outside the dealer network being banned from the charging network for “safety” reasons. Even if you own the car, do you really actually *own* the car?
    The next big change in architecture is 800V charging (vs the current 400V). The problem with this is that not only does it cost more on the car, the demands on the electricity network to install 800V chargers is so much more.

    In practice the drive for manufacturers should be efficiency. They have have made big strides in fuel economy from their ICE engines, yet the likes of Jag / BMW / Audi / Mercedes don't seem to give a toss about developing an efficient drivetrain. Simply stick a bigger and bigger battery in to get to a claimed range they won't ever get near. Sticking an ugly massive pointless grill on the front is far more important apparently.
    The drivetrains are increasingly efficient (see for example Tesla's latest motors).
    Most if the mass manufactures are only just starting to enter the market.

    Early adopters always pay more for any new technology. Which is why the luxury end of the market got in.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,300

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Buying ICE vehicles now is like buying analog film cameras 20 years ago. Soon the ICE for personal transport will be as obsolete as cassette tapes or CDs.

    Analog (sic) film cameras are trendy right now, and CDs are still viable.

    Cassette tapes are more niche
    Not the mass market by a long way, despite the hipster interest in vinyl.

    Sure, ICE vehicles have some advantages still, particularly for rural areas. We have an ICE hybrid as well as an EV. Increasingly though EVs have the advantage. I think it will be my last ever ICE vehicle.

    Currently EVs are 3% of the UK car fleet, but by Dec 22 had 30% of new sales. This is being driven by demand, and is only heading one way. The manufacturers see this too, which is why so much of the new design and engineering is centered on them, with ICE vehicle increasingly neglected.

    There is an issue with any technological change of when to jump to the new tech, but as EV prices drop, practicality increases, and psychological barriers drop, it is only going one way.
    I largely agree. My reservation is how much the prices of EVs will drop. It's one of those things I've been waiting for for some time and doesn't appear to be happening.

    I do also wonder if there is a future in which the most common model is owning small EVs for the 90% of our journeys which are local and renting large ICEs or other type for longer journeys. My understanding is that EVs are much more cost effective as small, relatively low range vehicles, and I wonder whether by trying to make EVs do what ICEs do we are solving the wrong problem.

    As a personal example, in my family we have two cars: a 14 year old Ford Focus and a rather newer MPV. We initially bought an MPV because we had three children under 5, and needed something which could fit three car seats in - but we're through that stage now. Now the reason for having an MPV is that a few times a year, all five of us plus luggage will go on a journey of more than 200 miles. I think many people are the same - we have the car we need for the extreme example of the journeys we make, rather than the typical example.
    90% of the time, though, there is at least one car parked outside our house. And weeks, months can go by without ever going much more than 50 miles from home.
    It feels like a much more resource-efficient solution would be to own a small EV, and on the rare occasion we needed two cars at once, or that we needed a bigger car, rent one.

    An EV works well as a second car, for most people who have a private driveway and a regular job. It does the daily commute, runs errands around town, and goes on charge every night. That covers 90% of journeys.

    I can definitely see the last of the MPV and SUV petrol cars being snapped up by rental companies, they’re going to hold up in value and everyone’s going to want one at Christmas.

    The worry for those buying an EV today, is that the technology moves so quickly that a five-year-old car is as popular as a five-year-old phone. When the new one does 500 miles and charges in 5 minutes, who will want an old one? What if the charging standard changes to enable faster speeds, and you’re stuck with the old one? I’d always lease an EV rather than buy it, which gives some random bank the risk of prices imploding. There are EV taxis that have done huge mileages (500,000+), but the concern is that the battery has a life measured mostly in time rather than usage.

    There’s also concerns around the connectivity of EVs in particular, especially with Tesla who own the chargers. There’s stories from the US, of cars repaired outside the dealer network being banned from the charging network for “safety” reasons. Even if you own the car, do you really actually *own* the car?
    The next big change in architecture is 800V charging (vs the current 400V). The problem with this is that not only does it cost more on the car, the demands on the electricity network to install 800V chargers is so much more.

    In practice the drive for manufacturers should be efficiency. They have have made big strides in fuel economy from their ICE engines, yet the likes of Jag / BMW / Audi / Mercedes don't seem to give a toss about developing an efficient drivetrain. Simply stick a bigger and bigger battery in to get to a claimed range they won't ever get near. Sticking an ugly massive pointless grill on the front is far more important apparently.
    Isn’t 1000 V on the way? Think that Tesla is switching to that for the Semi Truck, and planning to roll it out as an upgrade to other models.

    EV range is closely tied to efficiency. The optimisations for this are fascinating. A little while back, Tesla increased efficiency (and range) slightly, by a software change to how much power was going to the front and rear motors during acceleration and cruise.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,675
    I attempted to go car free but got fed up of having to run 5k to pick up a car club vehicle on the other side of Edinburgh. It made sense financially according to little model I built for myself.

    I think that is the solution though in our congested cities - just needs scale. One or two per street, plus a van every few.

    Electric cargo bikes are now pretty common too, see one at least once a day, so they will end up replacing the weekly shop/school run/delivery van.

    Different story in the rest of Scotland, which is why I'm a much bigger fan of congestion and parking charges in cities over VEDs, fuel duties or equivalents.
This discussion has been closed.