politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elect
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Why is the deputy chief whip of the Tories trying to spin the line of "vote Tory they are the sister of Angela Merkel" on TV ?0
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Dugher extrapolating on 8% Con-Lab swing and 9% Lib Dem-Lab swing from tonight. God help us.0
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Child sex scandals played a factor I think.anotherDave said:
The LD, Green, and Con numbers are all close to the result. It's only Lab and UKIP that break ranks.MarkSenior said:
I doubt it . The Lord Ashcroft poll for example had 47% of the voters in H and M as 100% certain to vote . The actual turnout was just over 10% lower . Rather than any last minute Lab to UKIP switching it is more likely that UKIP supporters turned out to vote and Labour voters stayed at home .anotherDave said:
if the Heywood polls were right, there must have been a lot of Lab>UKIP switching in the past week.manofkent2014 said:Lab 41%
UKIP 39%
Con 12%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014#Polling0 -
Sick of listening to Dugher spinning, he just doesn't get it.
The WWC core vote has gone and it's never coming back.0 -
@NickPalmer
'Labour did OK getting an increased vote share'
What all 1% of it !
That's an amazing result for the only opposition party to achieve at a by-election0 -
Well I caught that.
I honestly think you'd be pretty dense to not appreciate the Bacon butty strategy.0 -
And UKIP were preoccupied with another by-election in Essex.Speedy said:
Labour almost lost a safe seat to a party that got 3% in the last election.SouthamObserver said:
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.nigel4england said:
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Now Heywood has become a very tight marginal with a 617 majority, and there are still 12% Tories to be squeezed by UKIP, while only 5% LD and 3% GRN for Labour.
Also, the child abuse scandal in Rochdale isn't getting any smaller. Proof of collusion between Labour and LibDems has recently emerged.0 -
10 or 15 minutes to the Carswell coronation ceremony. Hooray!0
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Shite - WWC vote labournigel4england said:Sick of listening to Dugher spinning, he just doesn't get it.
The WWC core vote has gone and it's never coming back.
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I saw that. Labour - we'll shut up about Cyril if you shut up about our council. Disgusting in the extreme, and exactly why we have to be unrelenting in our efforts to rid ourselves of the rotten establishment at every opportunity.Ninoinoz said:
And UKIP were preoccupied with another by-election in Essex.Speedy said:
Labour almost lost a safe seat to a party that got 3% in the last election.SouthamObserver said:
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.nigel4england said:
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Now Heywood has become a very tight marginal with a 617 majority, and there are still 12% Tories to be squeezed by UKIP, while only 5% LD and 3% GRN for Labour.
Also, the child abuse scandal in Rochdale isn't getting any smaller. Proof of collusion between Labour and LibDems has recently emerged.0 -
Keep believing that and you leave the door wide open.JBriskin said:
Shite - WWC vote labournigel4england said:Sick of listening to Dugher spinning, he just doesn't get it.
The WWC core vote has gone and it's never coming back.0 -
Looks like the UKIP pile is double the size of the Tory pile, while the Tory pile is about double than the Labour pile in Clacton.0
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My accent does not allow me to be working class anymore - I admit I cannot be non-biased.nigel4england said:
Keep believing that and you leave the door wide open.JBriskin said:
Shite - WWC vote labournigel4england said:Sick of listening to Dugher spinning, he just doesn't get it.
The WWC core vote has gone and it's never coming back.
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There is NO WAY this can be spun as a good result for Labour. Barely increasing on a terrible 2010 result, and going down massively in Clacton.0
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Curtice very impressive tonight. Said more truth in a couple of sentences than any of the tired establishment MP's have said all night long.0
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Apparently Lembit has been spotted in Clacton supporting this candidate
http://www.eadt.co.uk/polopoly_fs/1.3777721.1411154186!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_630/image.jpg
He's such a tart0 -
Clacton... must have Clacton...
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The closeness has to be one of three things. Either the polls were wrong, there was a large late swing from Labour to UKIP or Labour voters didn't have the enthusiasm to come out.
I think the third option is most likely. (though it could be a bit of all three) A lowish turnout, not much media attention and the expectation that Labour would win easily probably meant a lot of Labour voters didn't bother.0 -
13,000 Carswell majority:- BBC
about a 38% majority if true...0 -
Turnout wasn't that low for a 57.5% turnout in 2010.Artist said:The closeness has to be one of three things. Either the polls were wrong, there was a large late swing from Labour to UKIP or Labour voters didn't have the enthusiasm to come out.
I think the third option is most likely. (though it could be a bit of all three) A lowish turnout, not much media attention and the expectation that Labour would win easily probably meant a lot of Labour voters didn't bother.0 -
Is Bexleyheath classed as Kent, Mr Kent?
I always wanted to know that.0 -
BBC Speculation Clacton
Carswell 21,000 Tory 8,000
If thats true Carswell is less than 2,000 votes short of his 2010 total0 -
OK it seems that the BBC had UKIP 21000 votes Tories 8000 votes.
Close to my 20 to 10 thousand, I thought.0 -
Alun Cairns still trotting out the Cameron conference speech line after H&M! When are the establishment MP's going to get back the ability to think independently and not act like party clones all the time?0
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No its Greater LondonJBriskin said:Is Bexleyheath classed as Kent, Mr Kent?
I always wanted to know that.
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Looks like about 20K for UKIP and 8/9K for the Tories in Clacton.
Which is a bigger majority than I thought would be.0 -
That would be an incredible result. 5 figure by-election majorities don't come easily these days. As I said earlier on tonight to some derision, a testament to the localism politics of Douglas Carswell.manofkent2014 said:BBC Speculation Clacton
Carswell 21,000 Tory 8,000
If thats true Carswell is less than 2,000 votes short of his 2010 total0 -
Y'lord - I canna translate that.manofkent2014 said:
No its Greater LondonJBriskin said:Is Bexleyheath classed as Kent, Mr Kent?
I always wanted to know that.
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Seriously impressive to get 20k+ in a by-election.manofkent2014 said:BBC Speculation Clacton
Carswell 21,000 Tory 8,000
If thats true Carswell is less than 2,000 votes short of his 2010 total
Very convincing indeed.0 -
By the way, this set another record for steepest fall ever for the Lib Dems in a byelection. 17.6% down, beating the previous record of 17.4% in Wythenshawe.0
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Lord Ashcroft might be feeling an urge to defect to UKIP, a lot of wow wow wows tonight:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 2m 2 minutes ago
rumour UKIP around 21000 votes in Clacton against 8000 for Tories. If correct another wow wow wow0 -
Fairly sure they're called Home Counties, Mr Kent,
Happy to be corrected by anyone.0 -
I will have to update my aggregate vote by-election chart for the current parliament...Danny565 said:By the way, this set another record for steepest fall ever for the Lib Dems in a byelection. 17.2% down, beating the previous record of 17% in Wythenshawe.
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Even a stuka couldn't dive bomb as effectively as Alun Cairns is doing under interrogation from Diane James and Andrew Neil.0
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Swing could exceed Christchurch 1993, making it the largest swing against the Tories in history....0
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Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.0 -
Glad the whole Farage TV debate issue has now been raised. Finally looks like the historic declaration is close.0
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Carswell nearly 60% of the vote - wow.0
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Carswell heading for 60%+0
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Rod But in 1993 in Christchurch the LD candidate did not used to be the incumbent Tory MP0
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If its 21,000 on a 50% turnout then I make it something like 62.5% for Carswellhunchman said:Carswell nearly 60% of the vote - wow.
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Oh and I almost forgot:
Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 2h 2 hours ago
Wherein I ask @Nigel_Farage if he has a message for @David_Cameron: https://vine.co/v/OAbLODLVU7e #skybyelection
Happy Birthday PM.0 -
And by-election victor lost it at the next General Election!RodCrosby said:Swing could exceed Christchurch 1993, making it the largest swing against the Tories in history....
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If the Tories are on 8,000 that would be about 24% (down 29%)0
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Andrew Neil is missing the point here.
OFCOM is the driver - if OFCOM says UKIP is a major party then there are only two options:
1) Farage is in the debates
2) No debates
Con, Lab and LD will have to choose between the above two options. They won't have a 3rd option.
And I will confidently predict that the outcome will be no debates.0 -
Mr Kent - if you ever wanted to be on Team casio - you are off the team0
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45% swing? Beats Bermondsey too as the biggest swing ever between any parties....manofkent2014 said:If the Tories are on 8,000 that would be about 24% (down 29%)
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Even more wow!manofkent2014 said:
If its 21,000 on a 50% turnout then I make it something like 62.5% for Carswellhunchman said:Carswell nearly 60% of the vote - wow.
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Labour have dodged a neutron bomb tonight. 600-odd votes is a terrible margin, but to have lost would have been infinitely worse.0
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If they are off then that will be portrayed as the establishment running scared of Farage. As with so many issues, they've managed to get themselves into yet another no win situation!Ninoinoz said:
Not so fast.MikeL said:Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.0 -
I know its amazing.RodCrosby said:
45% swing? Beats Bermondsey too as the biggest swing ever between any parties....manofkent2014 said:If the Tories are on 8,000 that would be about 24% (down 29%)
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Thank God:
Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC 2m2 minutes ago
Table collapses in #clacton. But it didn't have ballot papers on it.
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Indeed didn't Sky threaten to put cardboard cutouts in the place of leaders who didn't turn up?Ninoinoz said:
Not so fast.MikeL said:Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.0 -
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Strictly-speaking, No. (^_-)JBriskin said:Can you calculate swing from zero?
Serious question.
I am choosing to ask @Rodcrosby0 -
Finally getting on the stage. I need my sleep!0
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Carswell 21,113 Majority of 12,404!!
Lib Dem less than 4 x Monster Raving Loony Party!0 -
Here we go:
UKIP 21113
CON 8709
LAB 3957
Gr 688
LD 483
Loonies 1270 -
A truly momentous day in British Politics I think we can all agree!0
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Team casio calling that a lost deposit massacre0
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They were outside the campaign period.Ninoinoz said:
Not so fast.MikeL said:Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
During the campaign period other rules apply.0 -
Clacton UKIP 21,113, LDs 483, Loony 127, Indy 56, Indy 205, Green 688, Tories 8,709, Labour 3,957.
So excellent night for UKIP, not much for other big parties, night!0 -
UKIP 21113 60%
Con 8709 25%
Lab 3957 11%
LD 483 1%
Green 688 2%
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Better speech than the Labour woman !0
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Worst LD result in an English by-election since 1924...0
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Doug Carswell has increased his majority0
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Top notch speech from Dougie. And a thumping win.0
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The rules only require that they be offered a place, if they turn it down the debates can still go ahead.MikeL said:
They were outside the campaign period.Ninoinoz said:
Not so fast.MikeL said:Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
During the campaign period other rules apply.0 -
44% UKIP swing. Quite extraordinary.0
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Shadsy got his turnout bar pretty much spot on.
He's smart, that man.0 -
Congrats to Douglas and UKIP!0
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Quite an accent from Mr Watling0
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Lord Ashcroft left the LDs out of the result. :-)RodCrosby said:Worst LD result in an English by-election since 1924...
"Clacton by-election result: UKIP - 60% CON - 25% LAB - 11% GRNS - 2%"
twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/5203904775150673950 -
Same Lab-Con swing as Heywood I think !0
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And what, exactly, is stopping all bar Cameron appearing in the debates outside the campaign period?MikeL said:
They were outside the campaign period.Ninoinoz said:
Not so fast.MikeL said:Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
During the campaign period other rules apply.
Like the Euros, we know the date of GE2015.0 -
What the feck happened in 1924?!?RodCrosby said:Worst LD result in an English by-election since 1924...
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Labour below 4k in a seat where they polled over 20,000 votes in the General Election, admittedly with the more favourable territory of Harwich, but that is staggering all the same.0
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But in practice that won't happen.corporeal said:
The rules only require that they be offered a place, if they turn it down the debates can still go ahead.MikeL said:
They were outside the campaign period.Ninoinoz said:
Not so fast.MikeL said:Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
During the campaign period other rules apply.
BBC is not going to give up 90 mins of prime-time BBC1 for a debate in which the PM doesn't feature.
Apart from anything, if Cameron wins he sets the BBC licence fee very soon after the GE. The BBC cannot risk falling out with him big time.0 -
Change from 2010
UKIP +60
Con -28
Lab -14
LD -12
Grn +10 -
Yes we must.Sunil_Prasannan said:Congrats to Douglas and UKIP!
I think Faisal was taking the piss from Team casio - that means he's pro-team casio*
*I am not a serial killer
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Doesn't quite beat Bermondsey 44.1% versus 44.2%...0
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Dan Hannan and Carswell are friends I believe. What has Hannan said about Carswell?0
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Carswell only polled 1,700 votes less than his 2010 performance on 14% less turnout0
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Think long term. The media want these events to become part of the normal election campaign. If they let them lapse now then it's bang to the wrangling and possibly never happening again.MikeL said:
But in practice that won't happen.corporeal said:
The rules only require that they be offered a place, if they turn it down the debates can still go ahead.MikeL said:
They were outside the campaign period.Ninoinoz said:
Not so fast.MikeL said:Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
During the campaign period other rules apply.
BBC is not going to give up 90 mins of prime-time BBC1 for a debate in which the PM doesn't feature.
They empty chair him to show their teeth once and they can lock it in long term.0 -
Yes, but he had to do a rain dance to make it come right.Pong said:Shadsy got his turnout bar pretty much spot on.
He's smart, that man.
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The Liberal party had split, was at war with itself, in massive organisational disarray and was at one of the key points of its fall.OblitusSumMe said:
What the feck happened in 1924?!?RodCrosby said:Worst LD result in an English by-election since 1924...
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Well, UKIP winners, all the others losers. Simple as that.
Looking good for Reckless in Rochester.
Nite all.0 -
See licence fee point - apologies - I added that after initial post.corporeal said:
Think long term. The media want these events to become part of the normal election campaign. If they let them lapse now then it's bang to the wrangling and possibly never happening again.MikeL said:
But in practice that won't happen.corporeal said:
The rules only require that they be offered a place, if they turn it down the debates can still go ahead.MikeL said:
They were outside the campaign period.Ninoinoz said:
Not so fast.MikeL said:Andrew Neil asks about the TV debates.
I reckon they are now off.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
During the campaign period other rules apply.
BBC is not going to give up 90 mins of prime-time BBC1 for a debate in which the PM doesn't feature.
They empty chair him to show their teeth once and they can lock it in long term.
The BBC is completely dependent on whoever is PM in 2016.
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"Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell were my friends when they were Conservatives. They remain my friends. Both have been dedicated and patriotic MPs, both have shown courage in calling a by-election and, in truth, I expect both to be comfortably re-elected. But I won’t be following them."Tim_B said:Dan Hannan and Carswell are friends I believe. What has Hannan said about Carswell?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100288111/defections-bring-out-the-worst-in-political-parties/0 -
Con-Lab swing 7.3%0
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More defections coming?
Goodnight.0 -
Diane James hasn't read the manual on expectations management !0
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More defections awaited after this result...0
This discussion has been closed.