What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
You would have been the first to criticise Carswell if he had defected without getting a mandate from the voters!
UKIP vote just the anti Labour vote finding one home.
Bear in mind there was previously 22% of the vote for the LDs. Suggests Labour are gaining some votes from LDs but losing others to UKIP as happened in South Shields
UKIP targetting Labour seats is kinda good for Labour. Makes lazy Labour seats work harder and destroys our opponents even more. If you are anti Labour in the north its now UKIP or nothing.
UKIP shouldn't target seats in which Labour got more than lets say 38% in 2010 with some small exceptions.
@JBriskin Turkey is a NATO country? It would not be unusual for some of the allies to visit the border, and some may have crossed into Kobane to shop for souvenirs?
TGOHF Coming 3rd in Clacton, when they held much of the seat until 2005, and getting the same victory margin as Foot's Labour Party in Heywood, yes a triumph!
UKIP targetting Labour seats is kinda good for Labour. Makes lazy Labour seats work harder and destroys our opponents even more. If you are anti Labour in the north its now UKIP or nothing.
Yes it is. I can admit to not always remembering it. I doubt that I'll be able to forget that it's a secular muslim country formerly of the eastern roman empire though.
I am sorry to have to explain this to you but seats count national vote share doesn't. As long as we win enough seats I am happy to see us lose on vote share nationally.
Could there still be a shock in Heywood - if people are predicting it is that close and counting is still underway then surely there must still be an outside chance that UKIP has won.
Michael Dugher trotting out some pretty desperate arguments! And 45% in Heywood and Middleton is poor for Labour when you compare it to their stunning by-election victories before 1997.
Yep, I'll agree that things are not as good for Labour as 1997! That's rather a high bar. But I think the UKIP surge in the Labour north flatters to deceive - they will mop up lots of second places and when turnout is poor the Labour majorities will drop, as I'm sure it will tonight, but I'll be surprised if UKIP gains a single northern seat next year.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
Hell hath no fury like a tory (not torry) quine scorned.
I am sorry to have to explain this to you but seats count national vote share doesn't. As long as we win enough seats I am happy to see us lose on vote share nationally.
But could still be a problem re what the LDs do.
A very interesting point was made by Miranda Green (LD adviser) on Daily Politics.
If the order of parties by total vote share at the GE is:
1. Con 2. Lab 3. UKIP 4. LD
Then a coalition between 2 and 4 would be completely untenable. LD would have to go with Con in those circumstances.
Of course the vote share order may not be as stated - but if it is .....
Could there still be a shock in Heywood - if people are predicting it is that close and counting is still underway then surely there must still be an outside chance that UKIP has won.
That would be impossible, IOS says UKIP cannot win a seat from Labour
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
Hell hath no fury like a tory (not torry) quine scorned.
Nae happy with this - some people call it little Poland y'know.
Michael Dugher trotting out some pretty desperate arguments! And 45% in Heywood and Middleton is poor for Labour when you compare it to their stunning by-election victories before 1997.
Yep, I'll agree that things are not as good for Labour as 1997! That's rather a high bar. But I think the UKIP surge in the Labour north flatters to deceive - they will mop up lots of second places and when turnout is poor the Labour majorities will drop, as I'm sure it will tonight, but I'll be surprised if UKIP gains a single northern seat next year.
I agree Nick - Rotherham and Grimsby will be interesting, but I'm not expecting any UKIP gains up there at the current time.
620 votes in it in Heywood and Middleton according to Paul Nuttall! That would be an incredible UKIP result if so.
The weather was pretty bad in Heywood today. It looks like that's depressed turnout a bit, which has probably hit Labour's vote more than the other parties.
Election Data (Ian Watson) said that UKIP's strongest wards in the 2014 local elections are low turnout wards.
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D KY) asked 4 times on TV if she voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and refuses to answer each time.....what do think the chance is that McConnell will have that on the air tomorrow?
UKIP = SNP If UKIP win tonight, the result will be reversed at the next GE. Carsewell as an end of Parliament rebel might win, but I doubt that the voters of Clacton will then go onto vote UKIP at the next GE to deliver a Labour Government for five years.
The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.
Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10 and actively oppose an EU referendum!!
It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?
As for the referendum, that is undeniable. Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is voting in a way which makes a referendum in the next parliament less likely. That is simple fact.
No it won't be Ed. It will be Cameron. He is entirely responsible for the mess he has led his party into and if Labour win in May the only person to blame for that will be Cameron.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud.
@JohnO, that is my prediction too, Cameron will be PM after May 2015. And if Labour choose to pick Andy Burnham, yes please, as that will see George Osborne win 2020.
Yep, I'll agree that things are not as good for Labour as 1997! That's rather a high bar. But I think the UKIP surge in the Labour north flatters to deceive - they will mop up lots of second places and when turnout is poor the Labour majorities will drop, as I'm sure it will tonight, but I'll be surprised if UKIP gains a single northern seat next year.
I agree they won't, but the worry should be that, in Tory/Labour marginals in the north, UKIP will take votes off Labour and allow the Tories to hold on with a reduced share of the vote. That's how UKIP is a threat to them.
Also, the mediocre result in Heywood & Middleton is worrying for Labour for another reason. Northern England was supposed to be one of their saving graces next year. We know their problems in Scotland, all accounts are showing they're in trouble in Wales, and obviously they're in sharp decline in the South. If this result is now even showing how fragile they are in the North, it's hard to see where else there is where they'll punch above their weight next year, apart from London. But the Labour leadership still seem in total denial and complacency about the problems they have with their so-called "core vote".
If the margin is really 600 votes, why is there a recount? Can the tellers really not get a margin that large right first time?
Incase a pile of 621 votes has gone astray ?
Massive boo boo by Ukip - utter failure to convince enough Con voters to turn out and change their vote to purple. Are Ukip to toxic to convert tactical voters ?
If the margin is really 600 votes, why is there a recount? Can the tellers really not get a margin that large right first time?
Incase a pile of 621 votes has gone astray ?
Massive boo boo by Ukip - utter failure to convince enough Con voters to turn out and change their vote to purple. Are Ukip to toxic to convert tactical voters ?
I hear they failed on the lead>gold project too. Terrible night for UKIP!
The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
They
It
Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?
As for the referendum, that is undeniable. Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is voting in a way which makes a referendum in the next parliament less likely. That is simple fact.
No it won't be Ed. It will be Cameron. He is entirely responsible for the mess he has led his party into and if Labour win in May the only person to blame for that will be Cameron.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud.
@JohnO, that is my prediction too, Cameron will be PM after May 2015. And if Labour choose to pick Andy Burnham, yes please as that will see George Osborne win 2020.
You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.
Cameron will be PM after May 2015.
So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
Fitalass you just don't get it! Many UKIP voters including me see no difference between Labour and Tory. We couldn't care less. They're all part of the discredited establishment that has done so much harm to this country over the past years. You said UKIP wouldn't win the European elections, you said they would go away after that, and now what.....you're trotting out the same tired old argument that UKIP voters will go back to the Tories. Now Greg Hands trotting it out as well!
If the margin is really 600 votes, why is there a recount? Can the tellers really not get a margin that large right first time?
Incase a pile of 621 votes has gone astray ?
Massive boo boo by Ukip - utter failure to convince enough Con voters to turn out and change their vote to purple. Are Ukip to toxic to convert tactical voters ?
If the margin is really 600 votes, why is there a recount? Can the tellers really not get a margin that large right first time?
Incase a pile of 621 votes has gone astray ?
Massive boo boo by Ukip - utter failure to convince enough Con voters to turn out and change their vote to purple. Are Ukip to toxic to convert tactical voters ?
A feature of the previous GE was the reluctance of Conservative voters to vote tactically.
joncraigSKY @joncraig · 8m 8 minutes ago Closer than we thought at H&M. UKIP successfully call for recount. Paul Nuttall says "620 votes in it". Lab admit: "It's going to be close".
If the margin is really 600 votes, why is there a recount? Can the tellers really not get a margin that large right first time?
Incase a pile of 621 votes has gone astray ?
Massive boo boo by Ukip - utter failure to convince enough Con voters to turn out and change their vote to purple. Are Ukip to toxic to convert tactical voters ?
When UKIP have come from nowhere to within a few hundred votes of Labour in second place. They will have taken thousands of votes from the Tories and Libdems. Risible truly risible
I have heavily criticised Carsewell for making the taxpayer cough up for this expensive UKIP by-elections stunt just months from a fecking GE!! He could just have easily stood down as a Tory MP and run as the UKIP candidate at the next GE. Now I will dismiss any UKIP criticism of both deficit reduction and the increasing UK debt mountain by the Coalition Government, no wonder UKIP is regarded as stunt ridden joke.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
You would have been the first to criticise Carswell if he had defected without getting a mandate from the voters!
I have heavily criticised Carsewell for making the taxpayer cough up for this expensive UKIP by-elections stunt just months from a fecking GE!! He could just have easily stood down as a Tory MP and run as the UKIP candidate at the next GE. Now I will dismiss any UKIP criticism of both deficit reduction and the increasing UK debt mountain by the Coalition Government, no wonder UKIP is regarded as stunt ridden joke.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
You would have been the first to criticise Carswell if he had defected without getting a mandate from the voters!
Did you not like the Carswell convention Fitalass?
I have heavily criticised Carsewell for making the taxpayer cough up for this expensive UKIP by-elections stunt just months from a fecking GE!! He could just have easily stood down as a Tory MP and run as the UKIP candidate at the next GE. Now I will dismiss any UKIP criticism of both deficit reduction and the increasing UK debt mountain by the Coalition Government, no wonder UKIP is regarded as stunt ridden joke.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
You would have been the first to criticise Carswell if he had defected without getting a mandate from the voters!
In your make believe world, Carswell would have done that. In the real world, he couldn't keep the promises he made in 2010 whilst still a Conservative MP.
I have heavily criticised Carsewell for making the taxpayer cough up for this expensive UKIP by-elections stunt just months from a fecking GE!! He could just have easily stood down as a Tory MP and run as the UKIP candidate at the next GE. Now I will dismiss any UKIP criticism of both deficit reduction and the increasing UK debt mountain by the Coalition Government, no wonder UKIP is regarded as stunt ridden joke.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
You would have been the first to criticise Carswell if he had defected without getting a mandate from the voters!
Go to bed with Dave, wake up with Ed.
The Tories are fucked and it's their own fault, get over it.
So a full recount.. for a margin as large as 600 votes? Seriously?
What have UKIP got to lose?
The narrative will be "It was so close they had to recount" when the hacks write it up. That's better than "UKIP came close"
Returning officer should have confidence in his/her tellers!
An accurate result is the most important thing. It's surprisingly common for bundles to be placed in the wrong pile. In 2010 in Dudley North around 2,000 Tory votes were initially placed in the UKIP basket.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
Hell hath no fury like a tory (not torry) quine scorned.
So a full recount.. for a margin as large as 600 votes? Seriously?
What have UKIP got to lose?
The narrative will be "It was so close they had to recount" when the hacks write it up. That's better than "UKIP came close"
Returning officer should have confidence in his/her tellers!
An accurate result is the most important thing. It's surprisingly common for bundles to be placed in the wrong pile. In 2010 in Dudley North around 2,000 Tory votes were initially placed in the UKIP basket.
I hadn't appreciated that.. that's pretty appalling!
joncraigSKY @joncraig · 4m 4 minutes ago UKIP source says at H&M count: "We never expected it to be as close as this!" Another UKIP source says: "We came here aiming to come 2nd!"
UKIP = SNP Just think back to those SNP and Libdem by-election wins in Scotland during the last Parliament, then fast forward to the GE results in those same seats when the actual future Government depended on the results. Carsewell & Co are not going to be able to decide the first post GE budget or the future of the NHS etc.
The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
They
It
Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?
As for the referendum, that is undeniable. Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is voting in a way which makes a referendum in the next parliament less likely. That is simple fact.
No it won't be Ed. It will be Cameron. He is entirely responsible for the mess he has led his party into and if Labour win in May the only person to blame for that will be Cameron.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud.
@JohnO, that is my prediction too, Cameron will be PM after May 2015. And if Labour choose to pick Andy Burnham, yes please as that will see George Osborne win 2020.
You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.
Cameron will be PM after May 2015.
So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
Fitalass you just don't get it! Many UKIP voters including me see no difference between Labour and Tory. We couldn't care less. They're all part of the discredited establishment that has done so much harm to this country over the past years. You said UKIP wouldn't win the European elections, you said they would go away after that, and now what.....you're trotting out the same tired old argument that UKIP voters will go back to the Tories. Now Greg Hands trotting it out as well!
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29555999
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZMapp
Turkey is a NATO country?
It would not be unusual for some of the allies to visit the border, and some may have crossed into Kobane to shop for souvenirs?
Why UKIP splitting the right wing and Labour retaining their seat despite UKIP pushing hard is bad news for Ed Miliband
by Dan Hodges
Yes it is. I can admit to not always remembering it. I doubt that I'll be able to forget that it's a secular muslim country formerly of the eastern roman empire though.
(Total votes cast must be over 20,000).
I am sorry to have to explain this to you but seats count national vote share doesn't. As long as we win enough seats I am happy to see us lose on vote share nationally.
Vote Tory get Labour!
Whats sauce for the goose and all that!
Might have been a recount for deposits?
UKIP have asked for a recount in Heywood and Middleton #skybyelection
Labour PANIC.
Are you so desperate for some consolation! Labour have won! The Tories have lost the seat to UKIP!
A very interesting point was made by Miranda Green (LD adviser) on Daily Politics.
If the order of parties by total vote share at the GE is:
1. Con
2. Lab
3. UKIP
4. LD
Then a coalition between 2 and 4 would be completely untenable. LD would have to go with Con in those circumstances.
Of course the vote share order may not be as stated - but if it is .....
620 votes in it in Heywood and Middleton according to Paul Nuttall! That would be an incredible UKIP result if so.
Official Recount? YES!!!!
http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/heywood-middleton-ii.html
Oh dear.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/09/alison-grimes-obama_n_5961528.html
Meantime Obama is in California raising boatloads of money for candidates who allegedly want nothing to do with him, presumably including Grimes.
Also, the mediocre result in Heywood & Middleton is worrying for Labour for another reason. Northern England was supposed to be one of their saving graces next year. We know their problems in Scotland, all accounts are showing they're in trouble in Wales, and obviously they're in sharp decline in the South. If this result is now even showing how fragile they are in the North, it's hard to see where else there is where they'll punch above their weight next year, apart from London. But the Labour leadership still seem in total denial and complacency about the problems they have with their so-called "core vote".
Massive boo boo by Ukip - utter failure to convince enough Con voters to turn out and change their vote to purple. Are Ukip to toxic to convert tactical voters ?
UKIP leader Nigel Farage concedes defeat to Labour in Heywood and Middleton by-election ahead of the official result being announced
We now have a Dundee representative.
Full disclosure - I have lived near enough the bohemian area.
Closer than we thought at H&M. UKIP successfully call for recount. Paul Nuttall says "620 votes in it". Lab admit: "It's going to be close".
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 4m 4 minutes ago
The ConservativeParty leadership must take a large part of the credit for the rise of UKIP!!!
The narrative will be "It was so close they had to recount" when the hacks write it up. That's better than "UKIP came close"
It's a PR stunt.
The Tories are fucked and it's their own fault, get over it.
But yeah - maybe - too early to go to bed - full moon yesterday - everything in alignment.
1) Labour - looney lefties
2) Libdem - looney lefties
3) Green - looney lefties
4) BNP - looney righties
5) UKIP - looney righties
6) Respect - looney lefties
etc...
So which of the above should a sane conservative vote tactically for?
UKIP source says at H&M count: "We never expected it to be as close as this!" Another UKIP source says: "We came here aiming to come 2nd!"
If only they knew that it will come that close.
I said it was a feature of that GE. It was.