I doubt it . The Lord Ashcroft poll for example had 47% of the voters in H and M as 100% certain to vote . The actual turnout was just over 10% lower . Rather than any last minute Lab to UKIP switching it is more likely that UKIP supporters turned out to vote and Labour voters stayed at home .
The LD, Green, and Con numbers are all close to the result. It's only Lab and UKIP that break ranks.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.
Labour almost lost a safe seat to a party that got 3% in the last election. Now Heywood has become a very tight marginal with a 617 majority, and there are still 12% Tories to be squeezed by UKIP, while only 5% LD and 3% GRN for Labour.
And UKIP were preoccupied with another by-election in Essex.
Also, the child abuse scandal in Rochdale isn't getting any smaller. Proof of collusion between Labour and LibDems has recently emerged.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.
Labour almost lost a safe seat to a party that got 3% in the last election. Now Heywood has become a very tight marginal with a 617 majority, and there are still 12% Tories to be squeezed by UKIP, while only 5% LD and 3% GRN for Labour.
And UKIP were preoccupied with another by-election in Essex.
Also, the child abuse scandal in Rochdale isn't getting any smaller. Proof of collusion between Labour and LibDems has recently emerged.
I saw that. Labour - we'll shut up about Cyril if you shut up about our council. Disgusting in the extreme, and exactly why we have to be unrelenting in our efforts to rid ourselves of the rotten establishment at every opportunity.
The closeness has to be one of three things. Either the polls were wrong, there was a large late swing from Labour to UKIP or Labour voters didn't have the enthusiasm to come out.
I think the third option is most likely. (though it could be a bit of all three) A lowish turnout, not much media attention and the expectation that Labour would win easily probably meant a lot of Labour voters didn't bother.
The closeness has to be one of three things. Either the polls were wrong, there was a large late swing from Labour to UKIP or Labour voters didn't have the enthusiasm to come out.
I think the third option is most likely. (though it could be a bit of all three) A lowish turnout, not much media attention and the expectation that Labour would win easily probably meant a lot of Labour voters didn't bother.
Turnout wasn't that low for a 57.5% turnout in 2010.
Alun Cairns still trotting out the Cameron conference speech line after H&M! When are the establishment MP's going to get back the ability to think independently and not act like party clones all the time?
If thats true Carswell is less than 2,000 votes short of his 2010 total
That would be an incredible result. 5 figure by-election majorities don't come easily these days. As I said earlier on tonight to some derision, a testament to the localism politics of Douglas Carswell.
By the way, this set another record for steepest fall ever for the Lib Dems in a byelection. 17.6% down, beating the previous record of 17.4% in Wythenshawe.
By the way, this set another record for steepest fall ever for the Lib Dems in a byelection. 17.2% down, beating the previous record of 17% in Wythenshawe.
I will have to update my aggregate vote by-election chart for the current parliament...
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
If they are off then that will be portrayed as the establishment running scared of Farage. As with so many issues, they've managed to get themselves into yet another no win situation!
Labour below 4k in a seat where they polled over 20,000 votes in the General Election, admittedly with the more favourable territory of Harwich, but that is staggering all the same.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
They were outside the campaign period.
During the campaign period other rules apply.
The rules only require that they be offered a place, if they turn it down the debates can still go ahead.
But in practice that won't happen.
BBC is not going to give up 90 mins of prime-time BBC1 for a debate in which the PM doesn't feature.
Think long term. The media want these events to become part of the normal election campaign. If they let them lapse now then it's bang to the wrangling and possibly never happening again.
They empty chair him to show their teeth once and they can lock it in long term.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
They were outside the campaign period.
During the campaign period other rules apply.
The rules only require that they be offered a place, if they turn it down the debates can still go ahead.
But in practice that won't happen.
BBC is not going to give up 90 mins of prime-time BBC1 for a debate in which the PM doesn't feature.
Think long term. The media want these events to become part of the normal election campaign. If they let them lapse now then it's bang to the wrangling and possibly never happening again.
They empty chair him to show their teeth once and they can lock it in long term.
See licence fee point - apologies - I added that after initial post.
The BBC is completely dependent on whoever is PM in 2016.
Dan Hannan and Carswell are friends I believe. What has Hannan said about Carswell?
"Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell were my friends when they were Conservatives. They remain my friends. Both have been dedicated and patriotic MPs, both have shown courage in calling a by-election and, in truth, I expect both to be comfortably re-elected. But I won’t be following them."
Comments
The WWC core vote has gone and it's never coming back.
'Labour did OK getting an increased vote share'
What all 1% of it !
That's an amazing result for the only opposition party to achieve at a by-election
I honestly think you'd be pretty dense to not appreciate the Bacon butty strategy.
Also, the child abuse scandal in Rochdale isn't getting any smaller. Proof of collusion between Labour and LibDems has recently emerged.
http://www.eadt.co.uk/polopoly_fs/1.3777721.1411154186!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_630/image.jpg
He's such a tart
I think the third option is most likely. (though it could be a bit of all three) A lowish turnout, not much media attention and the expectation that Labour would win easily probably meant a lot of Labour voters didn't bother.
about a 38% majority if true...
I always wanted to know that.
Carswell 21,000 Tory 8,000
If thats true Carswell is less than 2,000 votes short of his 2010 total
Close to my 20 to 10 thousand, I thought.
Which is a bigger majority than I thought would be.
Very convincing indeed.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 2m 2 minutes ago
rumour UKIP around 21000 votes in Clacton against 8000 for Tories. If correct another wow wow wow
Happy to be corrected by anyone.
I reckon they are now off.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 2h 2 hours ago
Wherein I ask @Nigel_Farage if he has a message for @David_Cameron: https://vine.co/v/OAbLODLVU7e #skybyelection
Happy Birthday PM.
We live it.
OFCOM is the driver - if OFCOM says UKIP is a major party then there are only two options:
1) Farage is in the debates
2) No debates
Con, Lab and LD will have to choose between the above two options. They won't have a 3rd option.
And I will confidently predict that the outcome will be no debates.
The Euro ones between Farage and Clegg took place without Miliband or Cameron.
The GE2015 ones can take place without Cameron.
Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC 2m2 minutes ago
Table collapses in #clacton. But it didn't have ballot papers on it.
Serious question.
I am choosing to ask @Rodcrosby
Lib Dem less than 4 x Monster Raving Loony Party!
UKIP 21113
CON 8709
LAB 3957
Gr 688
LD 483
Loonies 127
During the campaign period other rules apply.
So excellent night for UKIP, not much for other big parties, night!
Con 8709 25%
Lab 3957 11%
LD 483 1%
Green 688 2%
He's smart, that man.
"Clacton by-election result: UKIP - 60% CON - 25% LAB - 11% GRNS - 2%"
twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/520390477515067395
Like the Euros, we know the date of GE2015.
BBC is not going to give up 90 mins of prime-time BBC1 for a debate in which the PM doesn't feature.
Apart from anything, if Cameron wins he sets the BBC licence fee very soon after the GE. The BBC cannot risk falling out with him big time.
UKIP +60
Con -28
Lab -14
LD -12
Grn +1
I think Faisal was taking the piss from Team casio - that means he's pro-team casio*
*I am not a serial killer
Good night all!
They empty chair him to show their teeth once and they can lock it in long term.
Looking good for Reckless in Rochester.
Nite all.
The BBC is completely dependent on whoever is PM in 2016.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100288111/defections-bring-out-the-worst-in-political-parties/
Goodnight.