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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elect

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  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    IOS said:

    TGOHF

    The Tories cannot win a majority in Britain. The party is screwed.

    Look, son, stick to sub-editing press releases from the NEC's sub-Committee on sports and the arts.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Ukip got the Big mo - f-ing pb tory amatuers
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    They'll still get home safely I'm sure.

    Yes, I expect so, but on such a low turnout UKIP could run them quite close.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    HYUFD said:

    Bobajob I remember on the night after Cameron's speech many were sceptical when I said there would be a Tory lead after, there was, overturning a significant Labour lead. That Labour is on 35%, still 3% down on where they were on that Wednesday evening, shows that something has still changed, even if the initial bounce has declined for now

    It's a possible theory - certainly the Tories had the best-reported conference. But I've not seen anything to shake my September theory that all the conferences would produce modest bounces that would subside: 90+% of voter opinion is just too dug in. The one Labour 38% you're referred to looked like an outlier, and I suspect the latest YG is an outlier the other way, with a modest LibDem bounce added in. If the by-elections don't change anything, I think we'll just emerge with Labour 3-4 ahead, as before.

    Will the by-elections do something? Dunno. UKIP should do fairly well in H&M and win Clacton easily, but may have expectation management problems if they don't win H&M or really romp Clacton. The Tories will lose a seat, Labour should hold but it's bound to be a smaller majority, and the LibDems could easily lose both deposits.
  • Am out tonight, can I collect my winnings on rev oswald yet? The turncoat vanquished?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).

    Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.

    Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.

    But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Labour have gained Crawley Southgate from UKIP ( elected as Con ) No figures yet

    Lab 733 Con 642 UKIP 277 Justice 10
  • 36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton

    Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.
    Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The weather was pretty bad in Heywood today. It looks like that's depressed turnout a bit, which has probably hit Labour's vote more than the other parties.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Was it confusing Srapheap? Just macro I feel.
  • Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.

    The difference is that UKIP means this seat isn't as safe as it used to be.

    What were you saying about complacency? :)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    IOS said:

    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.

    Cameron will be PM after May 2015.

    So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    AndyJS said:

    The weather was pretty bad in Heywood today. It looks like that's depressed turnout a bit, which has probably hit Labour's vote more than the other parties.

    Full moon yesterday as well...

  • AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
    Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...

    Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
    Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?
    I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.
    I think the Kippers are hoping to claim that because a GE is close they don't want to have a bye election - aka the "chicken strategy".

    I guess they could also tempt Con MPs standing down
    When David Taylor MP died on Boxing Day 2009 it was decided that no by-election would take place even though the general election was four and a half months away. So it looks like any defections from December onwards wouldn't require a by-election.
    When we looked at this a few weeks ago I think the general consensus was that anything after the New Year probably wouldn't trigger a by-election. Working backwards the vote has to be held within 27 days of the writ being moved and the writ normally should be moved within 3 months of the seat becoming vacant but this can be extended to 4 months if the poll would otherwise be held very close to a GE.

    So approx 5 months in total from the seat becoming vacant is the accepted maximum time.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Richard

    UKIP aren't able to win parliamentary seats from Labour. They are going to win 2 from the Tories. At the general election they are going to end up winning a few more of you as well.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Ahhh they have a break at the count in Clacton, result by 2 am.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Labour have gained Crawley Southgate from UKIP ( elected as Con ) No figures yet

    Lab 733 Con 642 UKIP 277 Justice 10
    The standard way of defining that result would be Lab gain from Con, not UKIP.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is the exact turnout available for Clacton ? There were a few over/under 50.0000% bets running on this..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    UKIP's initial estimate of 30% now edged up to 35% or so now - This Week
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    David Coburn in the backround in Heywood.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Tim_B said:

    Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).

    Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.

    Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.

    But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.

    The GOP said today they wouldn't let Orman caucus with them because he's a liberal Democrat at heart. Seems a bold move. I have to say, as things are now, it looks like the GOP are almost certainly going to win the Senate back. They need three from North Carolina, Louisiana, Kansas, Colorado, Alaska and Iowa. Landrieu just replaced her campaign manager in Louisiana so must be looking at some terrible internal polls. Begich is six points behind in Alaska. Kansas is very right wing and undecideds should break for Roberts. That's your three, and polling looks favourable for the Republicans in both Iowa and Colorado, which have both swung right.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TGOHF said:

    Is the exact turnout available for Clacton ? There were a few over/under 50.0000% bets running on this..

    There hasn't been any official announcement yet, it's just guesswork.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.

    Cameron will be PM after May 2015.

    So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
    Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Tim B Socrates S Dakota is also seeing an independent a close second. N Carolina is leaning Democrat, Iowa and Colorado too close to call, if the Clintons campaign in Arkansas that could also help the Dems
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.

    Cameron will be PM after May 2015.

    So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
    Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
    Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    IOS said:

    Richard

    UKIP aren't able to win parliamentary seats from Labour. They are going to win 2 from the Tories. At the general election they are going to end up winning a few more of you as well.

    I'm confident UKIP will win parliamentary seats from Labour after 2015.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    IOS said:

    Richard

    UKIP aren't able to win parliamentary seats from Labour. They are going to win 2 from the Tories. At the general election they are going to end up winning a few more of you as well.

    Vote UKIP, get UKIP ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    John O No, Umunna maybe Cooper. If Miliband PM almost certainly Boris Tory leader, slight chance May
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Discussion on This Week saying LDs prefer coalition with Con again after 2015, not Lab.

    I find this amazing - I always thought it was 95% certain LD would go with Lab (if they had a genuine choice) because:

    1) LD are left of centre - Ashdown clearly said they would have gone with Lab last time if numbers had worked (ie genuine choice).

    2) Desire to even it up - ie make it 1-1.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JohnO said:

    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.

    Cameron will be PM after May 2015.

    So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
    Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
    Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
    And will be the reason for the referendum being lost in 2017...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JohnO said:

    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.

    Cameron will be PM after May 2015.

    So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
    Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
    Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
    Errmm you haven't followed my posts very well haven't you?
    Lets put names in the air:
    Boris?
    Osborne?
    Davis?
    Gove?
    May?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Lagarde suggesting the Eurozone could be the new Japan, as if it wasn't obvious already:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/09/imf-eurozone-japan-economic-lagarde-recession-germany
  • MikeL said:

    Discussion on This Week saying LDs prefer coalition with Con again after 2015, not Lab.

    I find this amazing - I always thought it was 95% certain LD would go with Lab (if they had a genuine choice) because:

    1) LD are left of centre - Ashdown clearly said they would have gone with Lab last time if numbers had worked (ie genuine choice).

    2) Desire to even it up - ie make it 1-1.

    Why do you think the Tories didn't have sessions on Energy and Business at their conference. They are keeping Vince and Ed's seats warm for them!

    Vote Tory get Nick Clegg
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.

    Cash ALWAYS talks!!!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    Tim B Socrates S Dakota is also seeing an independent a close second. N Carolina is leaning Democrat, Iowa and Colorado too close to call, if the Clintons campaign in Arkansas that could also help the Dems

    Trying to eat, talk to my wife, and type at the same time - I started about Kansas but ended up talking about S Dakota! My apologies.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.

    Cameron will be PM after May 2015.

    So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
    Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
    Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
    Errmm you haven't followed my posts very well haven't you?
    Lets put names in the air:
    Boris?
    Osborne?
    Davis?
    Gove?
    May?
    Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited October 2014
    Lab out to 1.05 in Heywood!!!

    Could UKIP have a chance?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tim_B said:

    Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).

    Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.

    Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.

    But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.

    The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult.
    Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    MikeL said:

    Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.

    Cash ALWAYS talks!!!

    In theory some sort of devo-max should have happened by then - I don't want to play with Mr Andrew Neil though.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    MikeL Surely the LDs will go with the largest party
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Harvard study suggests there's a lot of support for Kiev among Russian-speaking Ukrainians:

    http://www.voanews.com/content/harvard-study-shows-russian-speaking-ukrainians-backing-kyiv/2476908.html

    Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Socrates said:

    Lagarde suggesting the Eurozone could be the new Japan, as if it wasn't obvious already:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/09/imf-eurozone-japan-economic-lagarde-recession-germany

    She really is a very dangerous lady indeed. On economics she hasn't a clue. Remember she trained as a lawyer. Deflation is ready to assert its grip from October next year....with utterly devastating results.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    MikeL said:

    Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.

    Cash ALWAYS talks!!!

    But would the SNP break their rule of not voting on English matters (there is no guarantee the Tories would have a majority of English seats) . Not much point having a coalition with the SNP if they cannot vote through the majority of the bills and if the Tories used the SNP to force through English legislation the screams of hypocrisy would be deafening
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Speedy said:

    Tim_B said:

    Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).

    Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.

    Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.

    But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.

    The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult.
    Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.
    What odds will you give me that the GOP will regain control?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Socrates said:

    Harvard study suggests there's a lot of support for Kiev among Russian-speaking Ukrainians:

    http://www.voanews.com/content/harvard-study-shows-russian-speaking-ukrainians-backing-kyiv/2476908.html

    Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.

    Socrates - I'm going to have to call you up here - it's a bilingual nation...

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    MikeL said:

    Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.

    Cash ALWAYS talks!!!

    But would the SNP break their rule of not voting on English matters (there is no guarantee the Tories would have a majority of English seats) . Not much point having a coalition with the SNP if they cannot vote through the majority of the bills and if the Tories used the SNP to force through legislation the screams of hypocrisy would be deafening
    Abstention on English votes might be enough if the Tories were say within 10 of an overall majority and the SNP had over 20 MP's. All depends on the numbers!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JohnO said:

    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.

    Cameron will be PM after May 2015.

    So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
    Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
    Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
    Errmm you haven't followed my posts very well haven't you?
    Lets put names in the air:
    Boris?
    Osborne?
    Davis?
    Gove?
    May?
    Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.
    I think you are petrified about anyone else than Cameron being Tory leader.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MikeL @JBriskin
    Wouldn't that necessitate Scottish MP's voting on English matters?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    JBriskin said:

    Socrates said:

    Harvard study suggests there's a lot of support for Kiev among Russian-speaking Ukrainians:

    http://www.voanews.com/content/harvard-study-shows-russian-speaking-ukrainians-backing-kyiv/2476908.html

    Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.

    Socrates - I'm going to have to call you up here - it's a bilingual nation...

    I meant to put a "not" in there!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited October 2014
    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    Speedy said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    JohnO

    You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.

    Cameron will be PM after May 2015.

    So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
    Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
    Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
    Errmm you haven't followed my posts very well haven't you?
    Lets put names in the air:
    Boris?
    Osborne?
    Davis?
    Gove?
    May?
    Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.
    I think you are petrified about anyone else than Cameron being Tory leader.
    Hardly. Just rather confident that the Tories will remain in power, quite possibly with an overall majority. I have longstanding bets with tim to that effect and I expect to collect.

    Assuming George Osborne does not stand to be leader, I would put money on Sajid Javid to be Cameron's successor.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
    Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...

    Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
    Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?
    I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.
    But surely you couldn't be an MP of a dissolved parliament?
    True, the victor would end up being one of a handful never to take their seats (assuming they were not re-elected at the GE).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TimB Though S Dakota also seeing Independent Pressler rising. Anyway, hope you enjoy your family evening meal

    Socrates/Speedy It could well be that Independents Orman and King hold the balance of power
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/10/nigel-farage-keep-hiv-positive-migrants-out-britain

    Suppose Nige is dog-whistling, or just going off on one. Wonder what the odds of Carswell leaving UKIP again before the GE are?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Cold hard reality of the ground campaign coming up here.

    Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    Speedy said:

    Tim_B said:

    Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).

    Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.

    Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.

    But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.

    The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult.
    Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.
    What odds will you give me that the GOP will regain control?
    Right now its GOP 51 DEM 48 with 3 independents, if that independent in South Dakota takes the lead and wins then one of the independents will determine who controls the senate.
    So what about the odds? Right now 50/50, the independents might go with the Democrats or the Republicans or if it still ends 50 seats each the VP casts the deciding vote.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    MikeL said:

    Lab out to 1.05 in Heywood!!!

    Could UKIP have a chance?

    Still at 1.05 currently:

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/heywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I'll say yes Smarmy - I'm not an MP
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited October 2014
    removed!
  • IOS said:

    Cold hard reality of the ground campaign coming up here.

    Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through

    And if UKIP win Rochester , the whole of North Kent opens up to them at the General Election
  • 36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton

    Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.
    Rather better than Leeds Central by-election for example.

    Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.
    "England's most important regional capital." - fuck that.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    TimB Though S Dakota also seeing Independent Pressler rising. Anyway, hope you enjoy your family evening meal

    Socrates/Speedy It could well be that Independents Orman and King hold the balance of power

    Pressler is just 3% behind the republican and 4% ahead of the democrat.
    It could be any of the 3.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    I remember the Leeds Central by-election, a former RE teacher at my school was Tory candidate
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    @The_Woodpecker - I presume you mean east?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    CentCom just announced that there have been 14 air strikes on Kobani over the last 2 days. That's it. 14. What is the point?

    This confirms the conjecture that many people here have (a poll yesterday said that 58% of Americans support 'more than air strikes') - this operation is in response to the pressure on Obama to 'do something' to protect vulnerable Democrats and take the pressure off himself.

    This is a glorified fireworks display for purely political reasons, and Obama's heart is not in the fight.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    One thing I'm seeing in the past few house and senate election (off cycle elections but also in the polls) is that the Libertarians and Independents are gaining ground, it is not unusual to see them above 5% or even 10%, that is a very big achievement in a strong 2 party american system. They are slowly getting the increasing NOTA vote.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Tim_B
    "....there have been 14 air strikes on Kobani over the last 2 days."

    Depends what they hit?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimB Though S Dakota also seeing Independent Pressler rising. Anyway, hope you enjoy your family evening meal

    Socrates/Speedy It could well be that Independents Orman and King hold the balance of power

    Pressler is just 3% behind the republican and 4% ahead of the democrat.
    It could be any of the 3.
    There are some indications that they will caucus with the Dems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    NP I think your byelection predictions are generally right.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Count in Clacton delayed, grrrrr.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    ThisWeek also talking of Carswell win, but talk too of 'silent Tories' who ended up voting for Watling rather than switching to UKIP with Carswell
  • BBC Heywood speculation

    Lab 45% of the vote
    UKIP 35% of the vote
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Labour 45%, UKIP 35% expected in Heywood.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Smarmeron said:

    @Tim_B
    "....there have been 14 air strikes on Kobani over the last 2 days."

    Depends what they hit?

    They are making a big play of destroying 2 trucks and an ISIS 'support building'.

    Seven strikes a day is just an inconvenience to the enemy. It's pathetic.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Clacton Gazette @ClactonGazette
    #ClactonByElection 5398 votes were cast in the Brightlingsea county council by-election - a 36.5% turnout. They will be counted tomorrow.

    I think turnout might had a spillover from the Clacton by-election.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    If UKIP win, will that lead to a Clactonasm?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Farage seemed to be hinting at 25-30% majority in Clacton on Sky...
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    45% is solid for Labour.


    UKIP vote just the anti Labour vote finding one home.
  • IOS said:

    Cold hard reality of the ground campaign coming up here.

    Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through

    And if UKIP win Rochester , the whole of North Kent opens up to them at the General Election
    Labour have given up in th South.

    Whatever happened to One Nation?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Nigel

    We just gained a seat of UKIP in Crawley!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Tim_B
    The Kurds have pushed ISIS back into some buildings on the outskirts of town, There is a fair chance that retreating ISIS will try to rally at one building......
    One bomb can cause a lot of damage if they did that, and orderly retreat is not something they will have practiced.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Michael Dugher trotting out some pretty desperate arguments! And 45% in Heywood and Middleton is poor for Labour when you compare it to their stunning by-election victories before 1997.
  • IOS said:

    Nigel

    We just gained a seat of UKIP in Crawley!

    A council seat?

    How many seats do you expect Labour to win in the South at the GE?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    51.2% in Clacton...
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    @Smarmy

    This is only the second time I've said this - how much more faith do we have to have in the Kurds?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    IOS said:

    45% is solid for Labour.


    UKIP vote just the anti Labour vote finding one home.

    That is why UKIP shouldn't target Labour seats, apart from the odd one like Grimsby or perhaps Rotherham.
    In Labour seats, Labour will see its vote rise even by a bit, not falling like in Tory or LD seats.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Tories have been smashed in Clacton

    Not going to be putting of defectors!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2014
    What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
    AndyJS said:

    Looks like I've lost my bet on turnout in Clacton being higher than the general election if the 50% reports are correct.

    @JohnO, well said.
    JohnO said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Nigel

    Enough for us to win a majority. Something the Tories are going to avoid doing for at least 3 decades.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy Indeed
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Smarmeron said:

    @Tim_B
    The Kurds have pushed ISIS back into some buildings on the outskirts of town, There is a fair chance that retreating ISIS will try to rally at one building......
    One bomb can cause a lot of damage if they did that, and orderly retreat is not something they will have practiced.

    If they dropped many bombs then there would be an increased chance of your '1 bomb' scenario.

    A bombing campaign is B52s and carpet bombing, cruise missiles, not seven drops a day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Pulpstar Labour's majority was 13% in 2010, so Miliband will have done worse than Brown in Heywood
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    IOS said:

    Cold hard reality of the ground campaign coming up here.

    Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through

    And if UKIP win Rochester , the whole of North Kent opens up to them at the General Election
    Yep I can't wait for that night on here too.

    Diane James putting Greg Hands and Dugher in their place. Good to have a by-election special on tonight - it most certainly deserves it!
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Speedy

    UKIP targetting Labour seats is kinda good for Labour. Makes lazy Labour seats work harder and destroys our opponents even more. If you are anti Labour in the north its now UKIP or nothing.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    fitalass said:

    What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like I've lost my bet on turnout in Clacton being higher than the general election if the 50% reports are correct.

    @JohnO, well said.
    JohnO said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
    @fitalass - we're talking about 200k as opposed to >16M

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Labour's majority was also 10% in Heywood in 1983, a Tory landslide year
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    The Kurds have had months to prepare for this assault, and I have absolutely no doubt that some muscular tourists have been commenting on, and making suggestions on possible improvements.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @JBriskin
    The Kurds have had months to prepare for this assault, and I have absolutely no doubt that some muscular tourists have been commenting on, and making suggestions on possible improvements.

    SHITE

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Labour majority under 1000 in Heywood... Sky
This discussion has been closed.