Bobajob I remember on the night after Cameron's speech many were sceptical when I said there would be a Tory lead after, there was, overturning a significant Labour lead. That Labour is on 35%, still 3% down on where they were on that Wednesday evening, shows that something has still changed, even if the initial bounce has declined for now
It's a possible theory - certainly the Tories had the best-reported conference. But I've not seen anything to shake my September theory that all the conferences would produce modest bounces that would subside: 90+% of voter opinion is just too dug in. The one Labour 38% you're referred to looked like an outlier, and I suspect the latest YG is an outlier the other way, with a modest LibDem bounce added in. If the by-elections don't change anything, I think we'll just emerge with Labour 3-4 ahead, as before.
Will the by-elections do something? Dunno. UKIP should do fairly well in H&M and win Clacton easily, but may have expectation management problems if they don't win H&M or really romp Clacton. The Tories will lose a seat, Labour should hold but it's bound to be a smaller majority, and the LibDems could easily lose both deposits.
Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.
Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.
The weather was pretty bad in Heywood today. It looks like that's depressed turnout a bit, which has probably hit Labour's vote more than the other parties.
Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.
The difference is that UKIP means this seat isn't as safe as it used to be.
The weather was pretty bad in Heywood today. It looks like that's depressed turnout a bit, which has probably hit Labour's vote more than the other parties.
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?
I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.
I think the Kippers are hoping to claim that because a GE is close they don't want to have a bye election - aka the "chicken strategy".
I guess they could also tempt Con MPs standing down
When David Taylor MP died on Boxing Day 2009 it was decided that no by-election would take place even though the general election was four and a half months away. So it looks like any defections from December onwards wouldn't require a by-election.
When we looked at this a few weeks ago I think the general consensus was that anything after the New Year probably wouldn't trigger a by-election. Working backwards the vote has to be held within 27 days of the writ being moved and the writ normally should be moved within 3 months of the seat becoming vacant but this can be extended to 4 months if the poll would otherwise be held very close to a GE.
So approx 5 months in total from the seat becoming vacant is the accepted maximum time.
UKIP aren't able to win parliamentary seats from Labour. They are going to win 2 from the Tories. At the general election they are going to end up winning a few more of you as well.
Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
The GOP said today they wouldn't let Orman caucus with them because he's a liberal Democrat at heart. Seems a bold move. I have to say, as things are now, it looks like the GOP are almost certainly going to win the Senate back. They need three from North Carolina, Louisiana, Kansas, Colorado, Alaska and Iowa. Landrieu just replaced her campaign manager in Louisiana so must be looking at some terrible internal polls. Begich is six points behind in Alaska. Kansas is very right wing and undecideds should break for Roberts. That's your three, and polling looks favourable for the Republicans in both Iowa and Colorado, which have both swung right.
Tim B Socrates S Dakota is also seeing an independent a close second. N Carolina is leaning Democrat, Iowa and Colorado too close to call, if the Clintons campaign in Arkansas that could also help the Dems
UKIP aren't able to win parliamentary seats from Labour. They are going to win 2 from the Tories. At the general election they are going to end up winning a few more of you as well.
I'm confident UKIP will win parliamentary seats from Labour after 2015.
UKIP aren't able to win parliamentary seats from Labour. They are going to win 2 from the Tories. At the general election they are going to end up winning a few more of you as well.
Tim B Socrates S Dakota is also seeing an independent a close second. N Carolina is leaning Democrat, Iowa and Colorado too close to call, if the Clintons campaign in Arkansas that could also help the Dems
Trying to eat, talk to my wife, and type at the same time - I started about Kansas but ended up talking about S Dakota! My apologies.
You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.
Cameron will be PM after May 2015.
So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
Errmm you haven't followed my posts very well haven't you? Lets put names in the air: Boris? Osborne? Davis? Gove? May?
Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.
Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult. Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.
Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.
She really is a very dangerous lady indeed. On economics she hasn't a clue. Remember she trained as a lawyer. Deflation is ready to assert its grip from October next year....with utterly devastating results.
Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.
Cash ALWAYS talks!!!
But would the SNP break their rule of not voting on English matters (there is no guarantee the Tories would have a majority of English seats) . Not much point having a coalition with the SNP if they cannot vote through the majority of the bills and if the Tories used the SNP to force through English legislation the screams of hypocrisy would be deafening
Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult. Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.
What odds will you give me that the GOP will regain control?
Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.
Socrates - I'm going to have to call you up here - it's a bilingual nation...
Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.
Cash ALWAYS talks!!!
But would the SNP break their rule of not voting on English matters (there is no guarantee the Tories would have a majority of English seats) . Not much point having a coalition with the SNP if they cannot vote through the majority of the bills and if the Tories used the SNP to force through legislation the screams of hypocrisy would be deafening
Abstention on English votes might be enough if the Tories were say within 10 of an overall majority and the SNP had over 20 MP's. All depends on the numbers!
You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.
Cameron will be PM after May 2015.
So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
Errmm you haven't followed my posts very well haven't you? Lets put names in the air: Boris? Osborne? Davis? Gove? May?
Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.
I think you are petrified about anyone else than Cameron being Tory leader.
Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.
Socrates - I'm going to have to call you up here - it's a bilingual nation...
You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.
Cameron will be PM after May 2015.
So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
Who will be leader of the opposition if its PM Miliband after May 2015?
Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.
Errmm you haven't followed my posts very well haven't you? Lets put names in the air: Boris? Osborne? Davis? Gove? May?
Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.
I think you are petrified about anyone else than Cameron being Tory leader.
Hardly. Just rather confident that the Tories will remain in power, quite possibly with an overall majority. I have longstanding bets with tim to that effect and I expect to collect.
Assuming George Osborne does not stand to be leader, I would put money on Sajid Javid to be Cameron's successor.
Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult. Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.
What odds will you give me that the GOP will regain control?
Right now its GOP 51 DEM 48 with 3 independents, if that independent in South Dakota takes the lead and wins then one of the independents will determine who controls the senate. So what about the odds? Right now 50/50, the independents might go with the Democrats or the Republicans or if it still ends 50 seats each the VP casts the deciding vote.
Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.
Rather better than Leeds Central by-election for example.
Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.
"England's most important regional capital." - fuck that.
CentCom just announced that there have been 14 air strikes on Kobani over the last 2 days. That's it. 14. What is the point?
This confirms the conjecture that many people here have (a poll yesterday said that 58% of Americans support 'more than air strikes') - this operation is in response to the pressure on Obama to 'do something' to protect vulnerable Democrats and take the pressure off himself.
This is a glorified fireworks display for purely political reasons, and Obama's heart is not in the fight.
One thing I'm seeing in the past few house and senate election (off cycle elections but also in the polls) is that the Libertarians and Independents are gaining ground, it is not unusual to see them above 5% or even 10%, that is a very big achievement in a strong 2 party american system. They are slowly getting the increasing NOTA vote.
Clacton Gazette @ClactonGazette #ClactonByElection 5398 votes were cast in the Brightlingsea county council by-election - a 36.5% turnout. They will be counted tomorrow.
I think turnout might had a spillover from the Clacton by-election.
@Tim_B The Kurds have pushed ISIS back into some buildings on the outskirts of town, There is a fair chance that retreating ISIS will try to rally at one building...... One bomb can cause a lot of damage if they did that, and orderly retreat is not something they will have practiced.
Michael Dugher trotting out some pretty desperate arguments! And 45% in Heywood and Middleton is poor for Labour when you compare it to their stunning by-election victories before 1997.
UKIP vote just the anti Labour vote finding one home.
That is why UKIP shouldn't target Labour seats, apart from the odd one like Grimsby or perhaps Rotherham. In Labour seats, Labour will see its vote rise even by a bit, not falling like in Tory or LD seats.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
@Tim_B The Kurds have pushed ISIS back into some buildings on the outskirts of town, There is a fair chance that retreating ISIS will try to rally at one building...... One bomb can cause a lot of damage if they did that, and orderly retreat is not something they will have practiced.
If they dropped many bombs then there would be an increased chance of your '1 bomb' scenario.
A bombing campaign is B52s and carpet bombing, cruise missiles, not seven drops a day.
UKIP targetting Labour seats is kinda good for Labour. Makes lazy Labour seats work harder and destroys our opponents even more. If you are anti Labour in the north its now UKIP or nothing.
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
@fitalass - we're talking about 200k as opposed to >16M
@JBriskin The Kurds have had months to prepare for this assault, and I have absolutely no doubt that some muscular tourists have been commenting on, and making suggestions on possible improvements.
@JBriskin The Kurds have had months to prepare for this assault, and I have absolutely no doubt that some muscular tourists have been commenting on, and making suggestions on possible improvements.
Comments
Will the by-elections do something? Dunno. UKIP should do fairly well in H&M and win Clacton easily, but may have expectation management problems if they don't win H&M or really romp Clacton. The Tories will lose a seat, Labour should hold but it's bound to be a smaller majority, and the LibDems could easily lose both deposits.
You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
What were you saying about complacency?
So is Burnham the next Leader of the Opposition?
So approx 5 months in total from the seat becoming vacant is the accepted maximum time.
UKIP aren't able to win parliamentary seats from Labour. They are going to win 2 from the Tories. At the general election they are going to end up winning a few more of you as well.
I find this amazing - I always thought it was 95% certain LD would go with Lab (if they had a genuine choice) because:
1) LD are left of centre - Ashdown clearly said they would have gone with Lab last time if numbers had worked (ie genuine choice).
2) Desire to even it up - ie make it 1-1.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/bulgaria-rejects-russian-accusation-of-disloyalty-over-wanting-western-warplanes-/508678.html
Lets put names in the air:
Boris?
Osborne?
Davis?
Gove?
May?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/09/imf-eurozone-japan-economic-lagarde-recession-germany
Vote Tory get Nick Clegg
Cash ALWAYS talks!!!
Could UKIP have a chance?
Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.
http://www.voanews.com/content/harvard-study-shows-russian-speaking-ukrainians-backing-kyiv/2476908.html
Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.
Wouldn't that necessitate Scottish MP's voting on English matters?
Assuming George Osborne does not stand to be leader, I would put money on Sajid Javid to be Cameron's successor.
Socrates/Speedy It could well be that Independents Orman and King hold the balance of power
Suppose Nige is dog-whistling, or just going off on one. Wonder what the odds of Carswell leaving UKIP again before the GE are?
Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through
So what about the odds? Right now 50/50, the independents might go with the Democrats or the Republicans or if it still ends 50 seats each the VP casts the deciding vote.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/heywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party
It could be any of the 3.
This confirms the conjecture that many people here have (a poll yesterday said that 58% of Americans support 'more than air strikes') - this operation is in response to the pressure on Obama to 'do something' to protect vulnerable Democrats and take the pressure off himself.
This is a glorified fireworks display for purely political reasons, and Obama's heart is not in the fight.
"....there have been 14 air strikes on Kobani over the last 2 days."
Depends what they hit?
Lab 45% of the vote
UKIP 35% of the vote
Seven strikes a day is just an inconvenience to the enemy. It's pathetic.
#ClactonByElection 5398 votes were cast in the Brightlingsea county council by-election - a 36.5% turnout. They will be counted tomorrow.
I think turnout might had a spillover from the Clacton by-election.
UKIP vote just the anti Labour vote finding one home.
Whatever happened to One Nation?
We just gained a seat of UKIP in Crawley!
The Kurds have pushed ISIS back into some buildings on the outskirts of town, There is a fair chance that retreating ISIS will try to rally at one building......
One bomb can cause a lot of damage if they did that, and orderly retreat is not something they will have practiced.
How many seats do you expect Labour to win in the South at the GE?
This is only the second time I've said this - how much more faith do we have to have in the Kurds?
In Labour seats, Labour will see its vote rise even by a bit, not falling like in Tory or LD seats.
Not going to be putting of defectors!
Enough for us to win a majority. Something the Tories are going to avoid doing for at least 3 decades.
A bombing campaign is B52s and carpet bombing, cruise missiles, not seven drops a day.
Diane James putting Greg Hands and Dugher in their place. Good to have a by-election special on tonight - it most certainly deserves it!
UKIP targetting Labour seats is kinda good for Labour. Makes lazy Labour seats work harder and destroys our opponents even more. If you are anti Labour in the north its now UKIP or nothing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The Kurds have had months to prepare for this assault, and I have absolutely no doubt that some muscular tourists have been commenting on, and making suggestions on possible improvements.