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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elect

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Bloody hell

    Shock of the year

    Lib Dems hold a deposit !!!!!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    LDs held deposit in Heywood
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    We all f-ing remember Fitalass but I'm not exactly going to tweet you am I???
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody hell

    Shock of the year

    Lib Dems hold a deposit !!!!!!!

    Smelling salts on standby.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    UKIP candidate being top of the ballot paper helped no doubt in H&M.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Labour majority 617 by my reckoning.
  • Lab 11,633
    UKIP 11,016
    Con 3,496
    Green 870
    LD 1457
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    lol @ the Lib dems cheering
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    UKIP lost for 617 votes if I heard correctly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Result UKIP 11,016, Con 3,496, Green 870, Labour 11,633, LD 1,457
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Very strong tactical voting going on there then.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    'People gave their backing to the Milipede...' .... yeah right. Risible in the extreme.
  • Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Lab 11,633
    UKIP 11,016
    Con 3,496
    Green 870
    LD 1457

    UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Lab up less than 1% on GE.
  • Lab 41%
    UKIP 39%
    Con 12%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour winning candidate in Heywood

    "Tonight voters gave their backing to Ed Miliband ..."

    Then some rant on the NHS..
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Labour candidate makes a fool of herself on TV.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A dreadful result for Ed Miliband. 617 vote majority.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Ms Swann (trusted source) was hinting that she was pilgrim?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    TGOHF said:

    Labour winning candidate in Heywood

    "Tonight voters gave their backing to Ed Miliband ..."

    Then some rant on the NHS..

    Indeed was amusing.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    TGOHF said:

    Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.

    Central claim of Dave conference speech well and truly bombed tonight!
  • Speedy said:

    Lab 11,633
    UKIP 11,016
    Con 3,496
    Green 870
    LD 1457

    UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.
    Absolutely it will be interesting to see if Tories will bite the bullet and vote tactically although clearly thousands of them already have switched to UKIP given the UKIP vote is only 1,500 or so votes shy of what the Tories got in 2010
  • Speedy said:

    Lab 11,633
    UKIP 11,016
    Con 3,496
    Green 870
    LD 1457

    UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.

    More Labour voters will turn out in a GE. This was UKIP's chance.

    But a terrible result for Labour. No-one is remotely enthused about voting for the party. They do it out of loyalty, habit and because they like other parties even less.
  • Speedy said:

    Lab 11,633
    UKIP 11,016
    Con 3,496
    Green 870
    LD 1457

    UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.
    As I said below, Tories tend to be less inclined than other voters to vote tactically.

    Whether they should do or not is another matter.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Looks like some anti Labour tactical switching by Conservatives to me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Difficult to see UKIP not winning Rochester after this performance in Heywood.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "2 Tories on the ballot paper but the voters chose neither" says winning Lab pilgrim

    Maths not her strong point.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.
  • Change from 2010

    Lab +1
    UKIP +36
    Con -15
    LD -17
    Grn +3
  • Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    UKIP might be up to something about child sex scandals in safe Labour seats, Rotherham and Heywood will be seats to look at in 2015.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I am a Highland lassie at heart. I only officially became an Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire quine after moving to Aberdeen 30 years ago, and only after eventually marrying an Aberdonian after spending sometime in Edinburgh and Inverness. :)
    JBriskin said:

    Like 90% of Aberdonians Fitalass - a fairly safe bet.

  • TGOHF said:

    Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.

    They haven't quite got the hang of FPTP have they. ;-)
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    Change from 2010

    Lab +1
    UKIP +36
    Con -15
    LD -17
    Grn +3

    Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.

  • Danny565 said:

    Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.

    It's not a matter of being more left or right, it is a matter of coherence and credibility. EdM is a dreadful leader and has failed utterly to give voters a clear understanding of what a Labour government would want to do, let alone how it would do it. He inspires zero confidence.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    JBriskin said:

    Change from 2010

    Lab +1
    UKIP +36
    Con -15
    LD -17
    Grn +3

    Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.

    MP called it right though - I apologise for shouting at Tv
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Traditionally safe seats tend to come down in by-elections to pro- and anti-incumbent. I thought it was going to be close when I heard the turnout was just 38% - the quesiton was how much of the anti-Labour vote would swing behind UKIP. Given the UKIP surge I think that Labour did OK getting an increased vote share, but we'll be relieved that the Tory and LibDem votes didn't flock to UKIP in even greater numbers. I suspect we'll see something similar in reverse in Clacton, though clearly with an outright UKIP win.
  • Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?

    I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Ho hum - Do I vote UKIP in Derbyshire NE now...
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    JBriskin said:

    Change from 2010

    Lab +1
    UKIP +36
    Con -15
    LD -17
    Grn +3

    Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.

    Excuse me? What are you saying?
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Perhaps with a 36% turnout, this is UKIP at their max in Heywood. At the general election Labour should win a comfortable majority in the seat and some UKIP votes will go back to the Tories. Labour will be very relieved to have won and should learn the lesson not to take voters for granted in the north.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    fitalass said:

    I am a Highland lassie at heart. I only officially became an Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire quine after moving to Aberdeen 30 years ago, and only after eventually marrying an Aberdonian after spending sometime in Edinburgh and Inverness. :)

    JBriskin said:

    Like 90% of Aberdonians Fitalass - a fairly safe bet.

    That must be why we get on so much :)

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited October 2014
    Neil tearing lumps out of Dugher right now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?

    I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.

    Lazy as sin aren't they ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Ho hum - Do I vote UKIP in Derbyshire NE now...

    If Labour got around 40% in 2010 then UKIP has a real chance.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    JBriskin said:

    Change from 2010

    Lab +1
    UKIP +36
    Con -15
    LD -17
    Grn +3

    Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.

    Excuse me? What are you saying?
    Thrasher kind of agreeing with me.

    Withdrawn

  • Danny565 said:

    Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.
    They have lost the WWC vote and they will never get it back.

    What are they going to say come GE time? You can't have a referendum on the EU as you are too stupid so immigration will stay the same, you cannot have EV4EL either?

    That will work well.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?

    I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.

    Lazy as sin aren't they ?

    Totally unenthused, I'd say. And understandably so.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Con-Lab swing 7.9% in Heywood & Middleton...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    I miss those AGW debates on yesteryear on here - all of them have now frozen away: http://iceagenow.info/2014/10/new-all-time-record-north-america-sept-snow-cover-highest-45-years-data/
  • hucks67 said:

    Perhaps with a 36% turnout, this is UKIP at their max in Heywood. At the general election Labour should win a comfortable majority in the seat and some UKIP votes will go back to the Tories. Labour will be very relieved to have won and should learn the lesson not to take voters for granted in the north.

    Why would votes go back to the Tories? They have no chance of winning Heywood. If Heywood voters want to stop Ed Miliband there is only one choice and that is to vote UKIP.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    "The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing."

    at the moment, nothing
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Sorry - might have been Woolfe

    I only got my Sky news
  • JBriskin said:

    JBriskin said:

    Change from 2010

    Lab +1
    UKIP +36
    Con -15
    LD -17
    Grn +3

    Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.

    Excuse me? What are you saying?
    Thrasher kind of agreeing with me.

    Withdrawn

    Well John Curtice made exactly the same comparisons as I did. And anyway who made you the arbiter of this site?
  • NIN22NIN22 Posts: 7
    edited October 2014
    After listening to her winner's speech and her replies in this interview with Andrew Neil on BBC... well, I'm not in the least bit surprised people weren't enthused about voting for her and that she's been run close today.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.

    It's not a matter of being more left or right, it is a matter of coherence and credibility. EdM is a dreadful leader and has failed utterly to give voters a clear understanding of what a Labour government would want to do, let alone how it would do it. He inspires zero confidence.

    I certainly agree with the last part - and that's why I think Ed should go, because even if he starts doing the right policies now, I think it's too late for him to shake the bad opinions people already have of him.

    What I'm getting at is that what Westminster assumes about people thinking Labour are "too left-wing" couldn't be further from the truth. In my patch (near-ish to Manchester), Labour people are constantly saying they just don't think Labour are interested in helping "people like them" anymore. As far as they see it, the only people promising them any hope are UKIP who are essentially saying that taking stuff away from immigrants will mean there's more that can go to people like them. The only way Labour are going to counter that is by actually offering these people some hope themselves about how things can be better, but they're just not able to do that while they're pointlessly trying to keep up with the Tories in the austerity/"credibility" stakes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not much sign of LD->Lab switching in Heywood.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    In truth this is a shocking night for both the Labour and Conservative party.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    JBriskin said:

    JBriskin said:

    Change from 2010

    Lab +1
    UKIP +36
    Con -15
    LD -17
    Grn +3

    Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.

    Excuse me? What are you saying?
    Thrasher kind of agreeing with me.

    Withdrawn

    Well John Curtice made exactly the same comparisons as I did. And anyway who made you the arbiter of this site?
    It is not my fault if my words carry weight.

  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    was that the worst winning speech ever?
  • 617 votes? Close, ever so close!
    (I was way out in my prediction for Election Game - 3,204!)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

    Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?

    I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.

    Labour almost lost a safe seat to a party that got 3% in the last election.
    Now Heywood has become a very tight marginal with a 617 majority, and there are still 12% Tories to be squeezed by UKIP, while only 5% LD and 3% GRN for Labour.
  • NHS pilgrim now an MP and boy is she deeply unimpressive.

    I would not be surprised at all if UKIP take this in May
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    NIN22 said:

    After listening to her winner's speech and her replies in this interview with Andrew Neil on BBC... well, I'm not in the least bit surprised people weren't enthused about voting for her and that's she's been run close today.

    Thought the same.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Undeniably a very bad result for Labour in Heywood. Not catastrophic - losing would have merited that description.
  • Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    617 votes? Close, ever so close!
    (I was way out in my prediction for Election Game - 3,204!)

    I predicted Labour by 5,890.

    What happened regarding the two polls showing Labour 19% ahead?
  • TGOHF said:

    Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.

    Vote Tory, get Ed?

    :)
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    617 votes? Close, ever so close!
    (I was way out in my prediction for Election Game - 3,204!)

    Never underestimate UKIP again Sunil!

    What do you think of the new design of the Tube?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Lab 41%
    UKIP 39%
    Con 12%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%

    if the Heywood polls were right, there must have been a lot of Lab>UKIP switching in the past week.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014#Polling
  • Well it's been a terrible night for the Tories / Labour / Libdems (delete as appropriate)
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Pulpstar said:

    In truth this is a shocking night for both the Labour and Conservative party.

    Quite right, a shocking night for Team Westminster establishment.
  • The thing is I can't see anyone wanting to go to sleep with David Cameron in order to wake up with Ed Miliband!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Well it's been a terrible night for the Tories / Labour / Libdems (delete as appropriate)

    Lib Dems held their deposit, brilliant result for them !
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!

    Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.

    At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.

  • Poor Priti is making a fool of herself!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    I thought Priti Patel was one of the more enlightened Tory MP's before tonight. She's really gone down in my estimation.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2014
    You hit the nail on the head with that post Southern Observer I just cannot see how the current Labour Party is going to be able to motivate their Scottish voters to turn out in the same numbers as they did back 2010. And that is going to be a real problem for them at the 2015 GE, if you cannot motivate your heartlands, how are you going to get out the vote where it matters in the marginals?

    Greetings from the New York.

    It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.

    Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.

  • JBriskin said:

    Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!

    Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.

    At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.

    What on earth are you going on about?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    marke09 said:

    was that the worst winning speech ever?

    "This victory is a vote of confidence on Ed Milliband"
    Yeap, it was the worst.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    JBriskin said:

    Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!

    Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.

    At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.

    Was surprised that Faisal left Channel 4. Very much got his finger on the pulse.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    hunchman said:

    JBriskin said:

    Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!

    Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.

    At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.

    Was surprised that Faisal left Channel 4. Very much got his finger on the pulse.
    Err, Political Editor of Sky news???

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    TGOHF said:

    Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.

    Vote Tory, get Ed?

    :)
    I like it!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    JBriskin said:

    hunchman said:

    JBriskin said:

    Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!

    Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.

    At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.

    Was surprised that Faisal left Channel 4. Very much got his finger on the pulse.
    Err, Political Editor of Sky news???

    Yep, he was Economics editor of Channel 4 News, and did a very good job whilst he was there. Who has taken over from him there - Paul Mason?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    hunchman said:

    I thought Priti Patel was one of the more enlightened Tory MP's before tonight. She's really gone down in my estimation.

    She's following the party line blindly and without thought; thats what happens with party hacks.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2014

    JBriskin said:

    Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!

    Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.

    At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.

    What on earth are you going on about?
    To be very very blunt - sub-continent tories, like TSE, I think will find political life more difficult.

  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Chris Bryant on SKY News more interested in the collapse of Tory votes rather than Labour doing badly
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Priti Patel silenced for a minute on Neil suggesting that people might vote UKIP because they want to vote UKIP.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Change from 2010

    Lab +1
    UKIP +36
    Con -15
    LD -17
    Grn +3

    8% swing Con->Lab, spookily consistent with the rest of the parliament. Amazing how it doesn't seem to matter what parties are running...
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    9am this morning October 1974 General Election results programme - BBC Parliament
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited October 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Vote Tory, get Labour in Heywood !

    Somebody (nearly) beat me to it :)
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Speedy said:

    marke09 said:

    was that the worst winning speech ever?

    "This victory is a vote of confidence on Ed Milliband"
    Yeap, it was the worst.
    the vote of confidence given by a football club chairman in the relegation zone
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    hunchman said:

    JBriskin said:

    hunchman said:

    JBriskin said:

    Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!

    Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.

    At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.

    Was surprised that Faisal left Channel 4. Very much got his finger on the pulse.
    Err, Political Editor of Sky news???

    Yep, he was Economics editor of Channel 4 News, and did a very good job whilst he was there. Who has taken over from him there - Paul Mason?
    I do not know.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Lab 41%
    UKIP 39%
    Con 12%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%

    if the Heywood polls were right, there must have been a lot of Lab>UKIP switching in the past week.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014#Polling
    I doubt it . The Lord Ashcroft poll for example had 47% of the voters in H and M as 100% certain to vote . The actual turnout was just over 10% lower . Rather than any last minute Lab to UKIP switching it is more likely that UKIP supporters turned out to vote and Labour voters stayed at home .
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited October 2014
    Speedy said:

    marke09 said:

    was that the worst winning speech ever?

    "This victory is a vote of confidence on Ed Milliband"
    Yeap, it was the worst.
    These things are pretty formulaic. You could hardly say "I know Ed really sucks all the time - his middle name is Dyson - but he has a heart of gold, and is a keen animal lover, which is legal in several middle eastern countries and the Sudan."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4748292.stm
  • Pulpstar said:

    Vote Tory, get Labour in Heywood !

    Somebody (nearly) beat me to it :)
    We've been saying that for the last couple of hours!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    marke09 said:

    9am this morning October 1974 General Election results programme - BBC Parliament

    I never tire of watching those 2 1974 election repeats. February '74 was one of the best ever. Hopefully 2015 will trump it for drama though!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Lab 41%
    UKIP 39%
    Con 12%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%

    if the Heywood polls were right, there must have been a lot of Lab>UKIP switching in the past week.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014#Polling
    I doubt it . The Lord Ashcroft poll for example had 47% of the voters in H and M as 100% certain to vote . The actual turnout was just over 10% lower . Rather than any last minute Lab to UKIP switching it is more likely that UKIP supporters turned out to vote and Labour voters stayed at home .
    The LD, Green, and Con numbers are all close to the result. It's only Lab and UKIP that break ranks.
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