It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Lab 11,633 UKIP 11,016 Con 3,496 Green 870 LD 1457
UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.
Absolutely it will be interesting to see if Tories will bite the bullet and vote tactically although clearly thousands of them already have switched to UKIP given the UKIP vote is only 1,500 or so votes shy of what the Tories got in 2010
Lab 11,633 UKIP 11,016 Con 3,496 Green 870 LD 1457
UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.
More Labour voters will turn out in a GE. This was UKIP's chance.
But a terrible result for Labour. No-one is remotely enthused about voting for the party. They do it out of loyalty, habit and because they like other parties even less.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?
I am a Highland lassie at heart. I only officially became an Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire quine after moving to Aberdeen 30 years ago, and only after eventually marrying an Aberdonian after spending sometime in Edinburgh and Inverness.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.
It's not a matter of being more left or right, it is a matter of coherence and credibility. EdM is a dreadful leader and has failed utterly to give voters a clear understanding of what a Labour government would want to do, let alone how it would do it. He inspires zero confidence.
Traditionally safe seats tend to come down in by-elections to pro- and anti-incumbent. I thought it was going to be close when I heard the turnout was just 38% - the quesiton was how much of the anti-Labour vote would swing behind UKIP. Given the UKIP surge I think that Labour did OK getting an increased vote share, but we'll be relieved that the Tory and LibDem votes didn't flock to UKIP in even greater numbers. I suspect we'll see something similar in reverse in Clacton, though clearly with an outright UKIP win.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.
Perhaps with a 36% turnout, this is UKIP at their max in Heywood. At the general election Labour should win a comfortable majority in the seat and some UKIP votes will go back to the Tories. Labour will be very relieved to have won and should learn the lesson not to take voters for granted in the north.
I am a Highland lassie at heart. I only officially became an Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire quine after moving to Aberdeen 30 years ago, and only after eventually marrying an Aberdonian after spending sometime in Edinburgh and Inverness.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.
They have lost the WWC vote and they will never get it back.
What are they going to say come GE time? You can't have a referendum on the EU as you are too stupid so immigration will stay the same, you cannot have EV4EL either?
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.
Lazy as sin aren't they ?
Totally unenthused, I'd say. And understandably so.
Perhaps with a 36% turnout, this is UKIP at their max in Heywood. At the general election Labour should win a comfortable majority in the seat and some UKIP votes will go back to the Tories. Labour will be very relieved to have won and should learn the lesson not to take voters for granted in the north.
Why would votes go back to the Tories? They have no chance of winning Heywood. If Heywood voters want to stop Ed Miliband there is only one choice and that is to vote UKIP.
After listening to her winner's speech and her replies in this interview with Andrew Neil on BBC... well, I'm not in the least bit surprised people weren't enthused about voting for her and that she's been run close today.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.
It's not a matter of being more left or right, it is a matter of coherence and credibility. EdM is a dreadful leader and has failed utterly to give voters a clear understanding of what a Labour government would want to do, let alone how it would do it. He inspires zero confidence.
I certainly agree with the last part - and that's why I think Ed should go, because even if he starts doing the right policies now, I think it's too late for him to shake the bad opinions people already have of him.
What I'm getting at is that what Westminster assumes about people thinking Labour are "too left-wing" couldn't be further from the truth. In my patch (near-ish to Manchester), Labour people are constantly saying they just don't think Labour are interested in helping "people like them" anymore. As far as they see it, the only people promising them any hope are UKIP who are essentially saying that taking stuff away from immigrants will mean there's more that can go to people like them. The only way Labour are going to counter that is by actually offering these people some hope themselves about how things can be better, but they're just not able to do that while they're pointlessly trying to keep up with the Tories in the austerity/"credibility" stakes.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.
Labour almost lost a safe seat to a party that got 3% in the last election. Now Heywood has become a very tight marginal with a 617 majority, and there are still 12% Tories to be squeezed by UKIP, while only 5% LD and 3% GRN for Labour.
After listening to her winner's speech and her replies in this interview with Andrew Neil on BBC... well, I'm not in the least bit surprised people weren't enthused about voting for her and that's she's been run close today.
You hit the nail on the head with that post Southern Observer I just cannot see how the current Labour Party is going to be able to motivate their Scottish voters to turn out in the same numbers as they did back 2010. And that is going to be a real problem for them at the 2015 GE, if you cannot motivate your heartlands, how are you going to get out the vote where it matters in the marginals?
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
I doubt it . The Lord Ashcroft poll for example had 47% of the voters in H and M as 100% certain to vote . The actual turnout was just over 10% lower . Rather than any last minute Lab to UKIP switching it is more likely that UKIP supporters turned out to vote and Labour voters stayed at home .
"This victory is a vote of confidence on Ed Milliband" Yeap, it was the worst.
These things are pretty formulaic. You could hardly say "I know Ed really sucks all the time - his middle name is Dyson - but he has a heart of gold, and is a keen animal lover, which is legal in several middle eastern countries and the Sudan."
I doubt it . The Lord Ashcroft poll for example had 47% of the voters in H and M as 100% certain to vote . The actual turnout was just over 10% lower . Rather than any last minute Lab to UKIP switching it is more likely that UKIP supporters turned out to vote and Labour voters stayed at home .
The LD, Green, and Con numbers are all close to the result. It's only Lab and UKIP that break ranks.
Comments
Shock of the year
Lib Dems hold a deposit !!!!!!!
UKIP 11,016
Con 3,496
Green 870
LD 1457
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
UKIP 39%
Con 12%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
"Tonight voters gave their backing to Ed Miliband ..."
Then some rant on the NHS..
But a terrible result for Labour. No-one is remotely enthused about voting for the party. They do it out of loyalty, habit and because they like other parties even less.
Whether they should do or not is another matter.
Maths not her strong point.
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +3
Withdrawn
What are they going to say come GE time? You can't have a referendum on the EU as you are too stupid so immigration will stay the same, you cannot have EV4EL either?
That will work well.
at the moment, nothing
I only got my Sky news
What I'm getting at is that what Westminster assumes about people thinking Labour are "too left-wing" couldn't be further from the truth. In my patch (near-ish to Manchester), Labour people are constantly saying they just don't think Labour are interested in helping "people like them" anymore. As far as they see it, the only people promising them any hope are UKIP who are essentially saying that taking stuff away from immigrants will mean there's more that can go to people like them. The only way Labour are going to counter that is by actually offering these people some hope themselves about how things can be better, but they're just not able to do that while they're pointlessly trying to keep up with the Tories in the austerity/"credibility" stakes.
(I was way out in my prediction for Election Game - 3,204!)
Now Heywood has become a very tight marginal with a 617 majority, and there are still 12% Tories to be squeezed by UKIP, while only 5% LD and 3% GRN for Labour.
I would not be surprised at all if UKIP take this in May
What happened regarding the two polls showing Labour 19% ahead?
What do you think of the new design of the Tube?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014#Polling
At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.
Yeap, it was the worst.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4748292.stm